Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Investment Rationale:
• AUM of 39,000 Crore growing at 20%; AUM Mix- Vehicle 72%; Home equity 25%;
• Significant pickup in vehicle finance disbursements (36%) YTD led by pick up in CV cycle. Chola customers are small fleet
owners with less than 10 trucks or individual truck owners. There is less competition from banks in this segment.
• Credit quality is good with GNPA of 3.7% better than other NBFCs in this segment. Chola has strong focus on collections.
• The current ROA of the company is 3% which should stabilize and ROE should remain ~20%. Rising interest rates wont have
much impact on margins as chola will refinancing 3 year old NCDs with better rates.
• Chola was facing pressure on the Home equity portfolio. Incrementally, this should reduce as they have cut back on large
ticket disbursements, reduced LTV, moved to smaller ticket sizes, improved the operations including fraud detection and are
working to resolve the large ticket problems in NCR region.
Investment Rationale:
• Sundaram Fasteners (SF) is India’s largest fastener manufacturer with 40% market share. SF has changed its product mix
evolving towards higher value-added products including pumps assemblies, powder metal components, hubs and shafts and
hot and cold forged products. Strength of the company is the large in-house tooling library and tooling capabilities which
reduces turnaround time for customers.
• Non-fastener business (primarily value added products) contributes ~60+% of revenues and should increase further. Value
added products enjoy multi-fold realisations compared to std. fasteners and better margins.
• Exports are expected (35% of revenue) to grow at 12% CAGR over FY17- FY20E, led by increased off-take and new order wins
from GM and Ford.
• For domestic business - PV, CV and 2W are expected to outgrow exports at 16% CAGR driven by increasing wallet share
(especially with top PV OEMs) and strong underlying volume growth
• FCF should improve for company despite the high capex investments for building up capacities for more value added
products.
Investment Rationale:
• Animal feed, crop protection and oil palm, contribute ~ 95% of EBIT
• GAVL management team has significant industry experience – MD with company since 1991 has 27 years experience. GAVL
has leveraged the Godrej brand and R&D to grow ahead of competition and is the largest compound animal feed player with
~10% market share in the organized fragmented animal feed business.
• Crop protection should grow 12-15% CAGR led by good product portfolio, strong distribution and exports through the Astec
acquisition. GAVL is the largest crude palm oil producer in India, with 35% market share. As more palm trees achieve
maturity, this business should see continued growth.
• In addition, GAVL has seeded a dairy business (Creamline) in Karnataka and has a JV with Godrej Tyson for poultry and
processed foods. Overall, we see a strong 25%+ EPS CAGR over FY18E-20E.
Investment Rationale:
• Avanti Feeds Limited has a market share of ~45%. It is a beneficiary of the shrimp aquaculture wave that came in the country
post 2009 with introduction of new species growing its shrimp feed biz at 55% CAGR over 5 years.
• They have a technical/marketing tie-up with Thai Union Foods (TUF) which helps AFL manufacture better feed with lower
Feed conversion ratio (FCR). As a result, it has gained and maintained its market share. It has also developed very strong
relationship with shrimp farmers giving it an advantage over other players. The company generates 40%+ ROCE due to
limited working capital and capex requirement of the business.
• Going ahead, Avanti is increasing its shrimp processing business significantly in collaboration with TUF. AFL is increasing its
processing capacity from 6,000 MTPA to 15,000 MTPA.
• Avanti has a demonstrated strong track record along with superior RoCE and RoEs and is our preferred bet to play on the
growing aquaculture trend in India.
Investment Rationale:
• Conglomerate structure with 5 main businesses – 1) retail- Coffee day cafes 2) Logistics - listed company Sical 3) Tech parks
and SEZ 4) Financial services- Way2wealth and 5) Investments - largely holdings in Mindtree.
• Coffee retailing – 1700+ cafes and 45,000+ vending machines. Average per day sales/store (ASPD) is Rs 15,000. 18% EBITDA
on retail biz. We expect improving customer sentiment to further increase same stores sales growth and ASPD which
coupled with higher contribution from high ROCE vending biz should drive earnings upside.
• Tech parks: 4.5 mn sq ft with 75% occupancy at 40-50 rs/sq ft rent. 7.5 mn sq ft yet to be developed. Overall value at Rs
60/share
• Investments: Listed companies Mindtree (0.083 shares/ CCD share) and Sical logistics (0.14 share/CCD share ) coming to Rs
100/share.
• Sum of parts ex debt works out to Rs 350/share. We expect huge upside if company goes for restructuring to unlock value
from disparate parts.
Mcap 6500 cr RoE: 8% Sales: 3120cr
GRUH Finance
Investment Rationale:
• Best quality housing finance company focused on affordable housing segment with three decades of experience and
spotless asset quality. Cumulative disbursements of Rs 27000 cr.
• Loan book of 14,800 cr with average ticket size of Rs 9 lakhs. Gross NPA 0.7%; net NPA 0%.
• Consistent track record of low NPA with excellent credit culture generating RoA of 2+%.
• Home loans form 82% of book with just 4% exposure to developers. 60-65% of loans to self employed segment.
• Branch led model with 180+ offices - strong growth led by increased availability of affordable housing in key states where
GRUH is present like Gujarat, Maharashtra, MP and Karnataka.
• We expect 20%+ EPS growth with no dilution and see some upside to our estimates as affordable housing supply increases
and GRUH continues to deliver on credit quality.
Investment Rationale:
• Started in 1986, Centuryply is one of the largest plywood manufacturers in India with 25% market share in organized space
and top 3 laminate producer. Company product range includes plywood, laminates, veneer, MDF, particle board and doors.
• Plywood has 70% unorganized players in a 18,000 crore market. With the implementation of e-way bill, we expect significant
increase in prices of unorganized players leading to market share gain by Centuryply especially at the lower ranges.
• Centuryply is increasing its laminate capacity by 50% and plans to increase its market share as a one stop solution provider
to customer. Centuryply started its 198,000 CBM MDF capacity in Q3FY18 and is already generating 20% EBITDA.
• 30%+ EPS growth is expected over FY18E-20E as laminates and MDF capacities ramp up along with margin expansion led by
growth in higher margin MDF segment.
Investment Rationale:
• JK Lakshmi Cement (JKLC) has 10.5 mn tons of standalone capacity across North, West and east regions spread across
Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujarat, and Chhattisgarh.
• JKLC has completed its major capex cycle which started in FY15 with current consolidated capacity reaching to 12.5mt.
JKLC’s net debt stands at Rs 1700 crore (FY17 Net debt to equity of ~1.2x) peaking out in FY17 and deleveraging should
accelerate as there is no significant capex planned.
• JKLC profitability of East plant in Chhattisgarh remains low but should improve with cost saving measures including setting
up waste heat recovery plant and captive power plant coupled with better realization in Chhattisgarh.
• Valuations are supportive at $75EV/Ton considering a revival is expected in profitability, improved pricing and better balance
sheet.
Investment Rationale:
• High quality residential real estate player with 70% of sales from Bangalore market.
• Company is selling 3-4 mn sq ft annually for past 7 years but has execution capabilities to increase this significantly without
adding much additional costs.
• Sobha does the entire execution in-house which enables the company to play even in affordable segment and sell lower
ticket size units profitably. Dream acres with ticket price in sub 50 lakhs segment is currently getting executed and Sobha is
planning to lauch more such projects shortly.
• Company has land bank of 2500 acres. Further, company has tied up with Kotak private equity for funding real estate
projects.
• With RERA kicking in, Sobha is seeing several small players exiting the market leaving significant scope for company to grow
market share in its focus markets. We expect 30%+ EPS growth over FY18E-19E.
Investment Rationale:
• IPCA labs is on recovery path after a 2015 US FDA import alert on their facility impacted their institutional anti-malaria
business and US generic business. The regulatory issues should get resolved in FY19 driving recovery in both anti-malaria
and US generics businesses. At peak these revenues were USD 100mn which then fell to USD 24 mn
• Revenue mix of company - domestic formulations 43%, Europe 18%, API exports 18%, International branded 9%; Others
12%. Steady 12-13% CAGR in domestic formulations segment with 60% of revenues from chronic therapies such as non
steroid anti-inflammatory drugs, CV and anti-diabetics. This business has provided the base when others were not
performing.
• IPCA is now re-qualified for global institutional malarial business which should resume from FY19. IPCA has invited FDA to
inspect 3 facilities – close to 30 ANDAs pending approval.
• Margins should see upside as remediation cost reduce, higher capacity utilization and better MR productivity driving 60%+
EPS growth FY18E-20E.
Investment Rationale:
• BJE is now on path of recovery after muted growth and margins in the consumer durable business coupled with better
performance in the contracting business. .
• Consumer durables (54% of revenues) saw major channel disruption over past 3 years due to implementation of new
distribution model – reducing dependence on wholesalers significantly. However, company saw strong 25%+ growth in
January which indicates stabilization of the new system. Company plans to increase its distribution reach to 250,000 outlets
by Mar-19.
• Contracting business (46% of revenues) was flat for previous 3 years. The current order book of Rs 3,000cr should have
strong margins as the company has become very selective in bidding for fresh orders.
• With both businesses kicking in on growth and profitability, the company is expected to deliver 40% EPS CAGR over FY18E-
20E.
Investment Rationale:
• HEG has 80kt of graphite electrode capacity (the largest under one roof) and controls 10% of the world’s capacity. The
company exports over 70% of its production to more than 30 countries of the world.
• Graphite electrode industry is seeing strong revival after a tough 3-4 years as China is shutting down steel capacities due to
environmental reasons. Graphite electrodes are consumed during the production of steel using Electric arc furnace method
– 2Kg/ton of steel. During the downturn, the electrode industry saw consolidation with the closure of ~200kt capacity.
• HEG exports 2/3rd of its production to countries in middle east, US, Europe and south east Asia with limited customer
concentration risk.
• With improved utilization and better price realizations , HEG will deliver 100%+ EPS CAGR over FY18E-20E.
Investment Rationale:
• JM has evolved from a corporate finance advisor and broker to a corporate finance provider with a combination of fund and
fee based businesses. 77% of profits come from fund based activities including lending and Asset reconstruction Company
(ARC).
• The lending business is currently focussed on the real estate developer, promoter loans and capital market lending.
Company has started SME and HFC segments in FY18 which should see significant growth over coming 2 years. We expect
NBFC AUM to increase from current level of Rs 12,000 cr to Rs 20,000 cr by FY20E showing a 22% loan book CAGR and 20%
earnings CAGR over FY18E-20E. Superior ROE of 19% and ROA of 3.7% by FY20E..
• Second-largest ARC in India at AUM of Rs 12,500 cr. Company should see good growth in the business with RBI new
guidelines pushes banks towards earlier recovery of loans coupled with macro revival aiding the underlying business. They
are also into Wealth management (Rs 31,000 cr) and AMC (Rs 14,000cr).
• JM should see EPS growth of 21% over FY18E-20E with the recent capital raise of Rs 650 cr further buttressing the balance
sheet.
Investment Rationale:
• CDSL is India’s second-largest depository providing security dematerialisation services for various capital market participants.
More than a third of its revenue is annuity and competition is limited (promoted by exchanges) given risk of data pilferage.
• CDSL has steadily gained market share in its core business from its lone competitor, NSDL due to its DP friendly policies -
lower operating cost, lower upfront deposit, net worth criteria and technology investment.
• CDSL gets 35%+ of its revenues from annual issuer charges (fees charged to corporates) which will remain stable irrespective
of market conditions. IPO and Corporate action charges contribute 11% of revenues which might see some downside from
weak capital markets.
• CDSL has started two new businesses - Academic depository and Insurance depository which provide digital authenticated
copies of academic awards and insurance policies respectively.
• We believe that CDSL is strong play on growth in financial assets theme with a less cyclical business model than brokers.
Further, the new businesses could provide further upside as these are annuity streams with limited competition.
Investment Rationale:
• Bata India is power house of footwear brands and has multiple brands such as Bata, Hush Puppies, Scholl, Comfit, Power,
Bubblegummers, Marie Clair, Naturalizer, Ambassador etc. Premium brands form ~ 30% of sales.
• Bata has 1400+ stores and plans to open 100 annually. The company derives 85%+ of revenues from retail segment and
remainder from wholesale channel which has been under pressure due to GST and demonetization.
• Women contribute 28-29% of revenues and this should see increase as Bata launches fresher products and more
fashionable aimed at women. Historically, Bata has spent < 1% on A&P which they are working to change – plan to spend ~
3% in Fy19 which should aid the brand.
• Strong MNC parentage, excellent direct retail reach and investment in product and A&P should drive improved Same store
sales for the company leading to operating leverage and margin expansion.
Investment Rationale:
• CSL is a PSU which has transitioned from building commercial ships to naval ships. 85% of its revenues come from Indian
Navy and Coast guard.
• CSL has very strong order book of ~ Rs 12,500 crore – 5X revenue visibility without including the Rs 5,500 crore corvette
order where CSL is L1. The yard has facilities to build vessels up to 1.1 million tons and repair vessels up to 1.25 million tons,
the largest of such facilities in India.
• We expect the higher margin ship repair business to grow faster than the ship building business as CSL is adding new
capacity through JVs with port trusts and new International Ship Repair Facility (ISRF) .
• CSL is a strong play on the significant jump 3X in naval capex. CSL plans to spend Rs 2800cr as capex over next three years to
ensure that its capabilities to cater to the larger orders.
• Strong order book backed by solid balance sheet with Rs 200+ net cash/share with growing share of higher margin ship
repair business drive our investment thesis for CSL.
Investment Rationale:
• KEI is a house wire and cables company with revenue mix of 55% Institutional; 31% retail and 14% exports. In retail
segment, KEI sells household wires and Low Tension (LT) power cables. This is a strong focus area for the company growing
at 16% CAGR for past 5 years .
• KEI has invested behind brand awareness and increasing distribution network (now stands at 1200 dealers) to drive its retail
sales.
• On the institutional side, KEI is increasing the share from higher value added products such as Extra High Voltage cables
which should reach 10% of revenues by FY19; .
• KEC also has an EPC division which is 28% of sales should remain at similar levels. Cables form 25% of these EPC projects and
ensure captive consumption.
• We expect KEI revenue mix to shift towards more retail driving better ROCE for the company with a decent 20%+ EPS CAGR
over FY18E-20E.
Investment Rationale:
• Essel Propack is global market leader in laminated tubes with presence distributed across the globe. Company enjoys 35%+
market share in global oral care segment and 5% in non oral acre segment.
• Non oral care categories such as skin care, toiletries and shampoo forms ~ 40% of Essel revenues and should go up 50% in
next three years.
• Essel propack is seeing improvement in its European region due to cost cutting measures, operating leverage, stabilization of
factory and new clients. Recent acquisition of EDG should aid company in increasing its presence in Germany.
• Company plans to improve both EBITDA margins and ROCE to 20% levels over a period of time. We expect 25% EPS growth
over FY18E-20E.
Investment Rationale:
• Accelya Kale (Accelya), a focused IT player in the aviation industry with US$ 54 mn in revenues and will benefit from
improved macros like higher air traffic. Accelya group’s expertise spans across revenue accounting, audit and revenue
recovery, credit card management, miscellaneous billing, F&A processes, and decision support and analytics
• Accelya Kale mostly works on a pay-per use business model helping airlines to avoid upfront investment, an improved airline
business environment should lead to improved revenue visibility for the company.
• Accelya Kale’s parent Accelya is a MNC and is merging with Mercator in a transaction backed by Warburg Pincus which will
create a global solutions provider for Travel industry. Combined entity will service 17% of all airlines.
• New deal wins such as El Al and Biman Bangladesh should drive growth. Sticky product and high switching costs coupled
with cross-selling synergies for the new combined entity should drive growth going forward.
Investment Rationale:
• Shalby is a hospital chain with 11 hospitals and ~ 2000 beds deriving 62% of revenues from knee and hip replacements
(Arthroplasty).
• Company has lower capex/bed of Rs 45 lakhs (as compared to Rs 75 lakhs-1cr/bed for peers) due to use of in house team for
design and project management coupled with hospital design tweaks leading to 30% more beds in same area. Similar cost
control on operating expenditure ensures break even at just 27%.
• Smaller size of hospital ensures better occupancy and no dependence on star doctors.
• Margins for the company are improving as the occupancy at some of the newer hospitals is increasing.
• We expect company to continue to grow well led by stronger growth in non Arthoplasty segment, entry into new segments,
start of new hospitals (more under asset light model) and lower debt burden post IPO.