Occupation of Ukraine?! The second paper.

(The second paper. Initially published on 24 March 2022)

It has not happened yet. However, nothing real,
adequately real has been done to prevent the
tragedy except usual, well-trained simulations of
efforts. This paper is only about officials of all
kinds. It is not about millions and millions of free
world people who reacted rapidly against Russian
aggression and supported victims of the massacre
with their maximum available capacity.

Russian Scenario (continuation).

If Russian soldiers kill Ukrainian citizens (all nationalities, all
religions) by the Russian weapon ordered to do so by the
Russian government, which are brought to power by Russian
 people, then it is called Russian military aggression into
Ukraine or Russian war against Ukraine.

Reactional or passive behaviour means that someone else’s

scenario is going to unfold. That’s okay if there’s nothing to be
afraid of, if the scenario isn’t dangerous, harmful, or
threatening to dramatically change the sole essence of
principles, values and the future of those involved.

Point 1. Absolutely critical point.

Can the 1st month of Russian military failure be beneficial to Russia? A strange
question? Well, it is difficult to understand, but it is possible.
Let’s start from the point that some leaders do not care how many people are killed
or die as a result of the implementation of their ill ideas! Yes, it is monstrous,
inhuman, but, unfortunately, it is not something new on this planet. The important
emphasis is that one should not confuse a failure and lack of intellect with
monstrous and inhuman actions as that might lead to tragic consequences.
In fact, some politicians are sensitive to human losses not due to their internal beliefs
but more as result of public opinion. Still, even those politicians are limited in their
calculations, but some are not.
The critical moment for the understanding is that it does not matter for the tyrant
who the victims are - part of their own horde or an opposing nation. It means that if
the monster needs to kill 20-40 millions of their own people it would still be
acceptable to the tyrant just as it was with Stalin’s repressions and the same amount
of victims just 60-80 years ago.
Next, let’s ask the following question regarding the first month only of the Russian
invasion further into Ukraine. Does it seem a bit strange that the majority of the
Russian ground troops were 18-21 years old, unprepared soldiers, unprofessional,
and unmotivated? Does it seem strange that no change has been made to correct the
situation by Russians after the first few thousands of their soldiers have been killed
and hundreds of heavy weapons have been destroyed? Does it seem a bit strange that
Russia, who spent 8 years in Syria, and was massively present in Libya, CAR, and
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other hot conflict zones within the last decade, sent so unprepared and
unprofessional units?
Is it strange that Russia who can easily concentrate appropriate proportion for the
attacking troops like 10:1 or 15:1, has not done so? Moreover, Russia dispersed its
quite limited (relative to the length of the line of the attack) attacking force along the
line of about 2000 kilometres. Strange?
Is it strange that such cities as Mariupol and Kharkiv could so easily be encircled
and blocked from a safe distance allowing the rest of the troops to save potential,
concentrate potential and continue movement much deeper to block all lines of
communications? This question is strengthened by the fact that limited Ukrainian
troops were forced to be dispersed along the 2000 km line of the attack as well,
which means that the encircled troops within a single city would have
extraordinarily limited options and almost zero capacity for attacking outside the
fortified lines at a distance of 20-40 km.
Instead, Russians postponed their further movement to conduct WW2-style,
inhuman, massacre by flattening two major Ukrainian cities slowly killing thousands
and thousands every day. Why?
Moreover, Kharkiv and Mariupol are not just major cities. They are Russian-
speaking cities, at least a large percentage of their population is. These two cities are
exactly where Russian support historically was higher than in other Ukrainian cities.
Then why?
Unpreparedness, unprofessionalism and lack of motivation, among other reasons,
are the possible answer. Moreover, it is the correct answer to some extent. But, did
we miss something?
I hope there are enough questions. Let’s come to some possible answers or, perhaps
it is more correct to say, possible options. Let`s return to the initial question: Can the
1st month of Russian military failure be beneficial to Russia?
Well, there is an option for the answer – yes, it can be beneficial.
Could you imagine the circumstances, methods and chances of any realistic
approach for the Tyrant to transform Russia into a military Empire nowadays?
Could you imagine how an ill-minded Russian leadership could convince 140
million Russians that now they should refuse to build their families, do business,
stop travelling, to refuse everything they had just for the purpose of being part of the
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military empire and supporting all its needs and first disregarding their personal
feelings, hopes, believes, loved ones? Ask the same question recollecting that at
least 20-40% of those 140 million have already travelled around the world for the
last 20 years and the rest explored the world by internet. Ask the same question
recollecting that Russia was part of the global diplomacy and trade world. Have you
found any realistic scenario? If yes, I would highly appreciate it if you would share
it with me as I could not answer this question. (It is different a universe to ask the
question why they need military empire. The military empire is something of
Russia’s recent past and the current present).
The next step is to connect all the questions above with the Russian leadership
intention to transform Russia. Let`s take the question with Russian human losses.
Imagine that profoundly and totally ignorant Russian society, all its cities would
receive on a regular basis, the Russians killed in actions who are 18-22 years old and
killed in Ukraine by Ukrainians.
Yes, people under strong emotions rarely ask questions and much less rarely are
trying to clarify the reasons for the consequences of their actions. Now, it is time to
add the word ignorant people as it is the multiplexor. Imagine that every day in the
majority of Russian cities people would bury not 30-50 years old military
professionals, but 18-22 years old kids whom they knew just months ago.
Imagine that Russian news agencies, famous Russian news agencies would show
flattened Kharkiv and Mariupol, knowing that everybody from the former USSR
knows that those cities had large percentage of Russian speakers. Guess, what would
be the comments written by Russian propaganda super professionals.
Guess, what the Russian people would feel for days and weeks? What kind of
emotions they would experience? Well, let us look at two options. Option one:
compassion, love, forgiveness, understanding. Or Option two: impulse for revenge,
aggression, pain.
Well, if the Russian society would feel love and compassion then the Russian
leadership would have nothing to offer the Russian people as those terms are
simply lying somewhere out of the current Russian leadership universe.
BUT, if they feel raising aggression and the need for revenge
………………………..

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(I am sorry, this is, unfortunately, the darkest of humour. In fact, this is no less a
total tragedy for those Russians who are still human than it is for all Ukrainians. It is
for Russians the moment of truth when they are transformed from sleeping, ignorant
humans into war machines by stilling their souls, their hopes, and memories.),
………………………
the Tyrant would be happy to lead them and assist them. In this case, answer those
questions above regarding how many efforts the dark empire should exert to
convince the Russian people to work just to get food and barracks as the rest would
be required by the empire to defeat its enemies to make everything Russia.
Russia needs to eliminate at first love, compassion, understanding, forgiveness,
and only then transfer sleeping and ignorant people into war machines. Russia
is producing aggressiveness. This is its main goal. It does not matter who falls
victim to the aggressiveness as the goal is to multiply aggressiveness from all
sides. And this is validation for them that there is no way back!
Yes, I state that the initial defeat was at least partially if not fully a Russian
scenario. Although I hope to be mistaken.
There is no need to continue this point with explanations and questions. The rest is
also quite easily understandable.

Intentionally, the rest of the points will be reduced to a minimum as they are much
easier to understand and do not require much explanation.

Point 2. Russia will show to literally everyone that western values, promises,
integrity, and principles have absolutely zero value in regard to the protection of
other nations, integrity, independence, human rights, and people no matter what and
no matter how many millions are killed or suffer.
Unfortunately, this is something which is very true. All explanations are
omitted intentionally as they are devoid of facts. Simply, cross out all rhetoric
and useless speeches of unprofessional politicians (as soon as they failed to
prevent the free world from a new tragedy, which is their primary function).
Do not pay attention to any words. Leave just proclaimed values, promises and
facts!

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30 days of Ukrainian massacre – big and small cities are flattened, thousands of
Ukrainians are dead, 3 million Ukrainians have crossed the border, another
million internally displaced, another million are searching for ways to survive
and protect their loved ones. AND!!! 30 days of Ukrainian massacre: the US,
the guarantor of Ukraine’s security, signatory of the Budapest memorandum –
Attention – the US promised to accept 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. NO
COMMENTS. It must be checked and evaluated individually! Another famous
guarantor and the Budapest agreement signatory - Britain - 30 days of
Ukrainian massacre – Britain announced that additional economic sanctions
will take place. Whom do you represent, western politicians? Who are the
people you work for, the most professional western politicians? In its broadest
sense, who are you, western professionals of all kinds?
SOMETHING IS TOTALY WRONG INSIDE THE LEADERSHIP OF THE
FREE WORLD!
THE QUESTIION IS SIMPLE. IF WE IGNORE IT NOW, WILL WE BE
ABLE TO SAVE THE REST?!

Point 3. Russia will show literally everyone that it is capable of force to destroy any
state and is capable to act not just against separate entities or groups of entities but
ultimately against a global coalition. The key to this point is the duration of the
massacre to make sure that everyone understands and memorizes the Russian
message.

Point 4. Russia will show literally everyone that there are strong doubts regarding
the joined internal protection of NATO members. At the same time as tearing
Ukraine to pieces, different NATO members pursue their own interests, simulate
efforts to support Ukraine, or shift the responsibility to act onto others. In other
words, in the face of a common NATO threat, NATO members afford to act
dramatically differently and are unable to adjust equally concerted efforts to deal
with a common existential threat. Is it the responsibility of the grocery store
workers? What is the personal responsibility for the long time, well-paid
professionals?

Point 5. Postponed for at least for 3-5 years, the economic crises or it is safe to say
that the economic tensions within the global market in general and the west

6
economies in particular, have been continuously accumulated by the markets,
governments, and societies since the 2008 financial crises. Russian aggression into
Ukraine (along with the increasing ties between two great powers Russia and China)
might appear to be a great impact on the western economies, which were on the
brink of the next financial disaster just before the aggression into Ukraine began.
Significantly increased prices for energy resources for the foreseeable future, added
logistic challenges and increased aggressiveness and uncertainty on global markets
will ensure strained economic conditions for the free world.
It is worth mentioning that the global economic situation is not the product of
Russia, but the result of the long work of professionals and officials in the economic
sphere. The Russian product is to use the momentum to strike the free world in the
economic sphere hurting simultaneously free world societies and dramatically
increasing existing social tensions.

Point 6. The existing total ignorance of the free world society to who their leaders
are and, where and how they lead the free world, the ignorance of the consequences
of the proud achievements of the free world officials, analysts, experts (like 2
trillion spent on Afghanistan or Iraq with the only negative outcomes for all
involved people internally and abroad), the ignorance of the other people suffering
(of course it is not about individuals,… great, amazing, heroic thousands of
individuals, but it is written about the majority or the masses!!!) --- will lead to mid-
term perspective tiredness of the free world societies manifesting itself in reduced
activeness, change of priorities, increased self-care. The next phase is the increased
internal tensions for a variety of reasons starting from lowered social protection and
decreased economic security; the existing radicals; the rise of populists and
opportunists. If true, it will divide and dramatically weaken the free world…
dramatically to the point of facing an existential threat including the threat - to
transform into the half-orcs’ mentality.

Point 7. States and nations who fell victim to the democracy-building processes led
by the free world for the last 20 years will join the dark kingdom’s sphere of
influence increasing their power in terms of geographical representation, global
votes, as well as human resources to undermine the free world. It is not necessarily
the military component, it might be, for instance, the limitation of energy minerals
extraction or other strategic resources or organizing the mass immigration/migration
into the free world as it has already been before. It is also a major point for the

7
internal consumption of the dark kingdom to prove that Russia is great again leading
the world masses.

Point 8. The dark kingdom has verified who is its friend, who is its situational
partner and who is its enemy inside the kingdom as well as outside talking in regard
to states, organizations and groups. The reality will filter the promises and
agreements. …It would be funny to observe the official posture of some states if
there is not an ocean of human blood. The so-called moderate or careful, at the time
of the massacre and the unprecedented (relative to the past precedents) international
unification…. I omit to name those as there are not a few but many. Those are the
first candidates to join the dark kingdom in the near future (hopefully, those
governments and respective nations know what and why they do so).

Point 9. The dark kingdom will be rebuilt within new realities, technologies and
generations. Everything is back for the inhuman, merciless totalitarian machine to
produce strong warriors; any internal resistance is identified and annihilated
providing assurances for the internal stability of Russia.

Point 10. China…

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Kostiantyn Tkachuk
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