Morgan Toal

Probability & Statistics 2

Dr. Burns

September 15th 2020

Summary of Probability

In the video, Uffink begins by talking about how probability is a ‘chance’ and how you

can use it in your everyday life. He gives a few examples of how physics and probability go

hand in hand together. Uffink said that probability became a real concept in 1650 and it started

with study by Pascal and Fermat, and then it continued with Leibinx and Graunt. Pascal and

Fermat’s study was based on rolling a die and seeing who would get the stake at the end of the

rounds. They wrote back and forth to each other on how the stake would be split if they couldn't

have a complete winner. Another man, Bernoulli, talks more about probability and how it has

some uncertainty. He is the reason for The Principle of Insufficient Reason and The weak Law

of Large Numbers. After him, Bayes created a theorem which was related to Bernoullis, which

was called the Bayes Theorem. Bertrand in 1889 created a “paradox” about a glass of water

and wine. It was one question, but ended up having 2 answers. The last piece of history that

was talked about was Keynes. Keynes basically said that people feel an uncertainty when

finding a probability answer, but treatises find a precise answer. Uffick then begins to talk about

how different people interpret probability. There is frequency interpretation, propensity

interpretation, neoclassical interpretation, and subjective interpretation. Frequency is basically

saying “How long is long enough?”. Propensity is “objective chance”. Subjective is “can

probabilities be unknown?”. Uffick ends off by saying that there is no better way to interpret, but

subjective interpretation is the most popular interpretation.