Electricity Shortages: Prepare To Sweat This Summer If You Are In These States The summer sun is beating down, temperatures are soaring to reson highs, and fans and air conditioners are on ful-blast, causing a surge in residential demand for electricity, But domestic coal stacks are running low across power stations and international prices are soaring, making. imports unviable, The rsult—power shoragss and outages. How likely shan other, yu to face hours of no electricity? That depends on where you live, The power shortages differ from slate to tae, with some worse ‘Andhra Pradesh saw the maximum peak hour shortages on average berween Apiil | and 27, according to data collated by BloombergQuint fom the Power System Operation Corporation Lid—e Government of India enterprise, Utar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana fllowed,secing, high peak hour shortage on an average in April Several states across the county are facing coal shortages leading to power shortages, with India entering peak demand season from April ta October, ‘Vikram Kasat, head of advisory at sock broker Prabhudas Lilladher, said in an April 26 note. Kasat added that the situation is especially worrisome it Maharashra, Madhya Pradesh and Andira Pradesh, ‘While Posoco does publish monthly data on power deficit and surplus forall mes of te day, it comes with lag and is unavalabie for Apri However, peak hour shortages give a reasonable indication of whether supply is enough to meet demand, ‘As a percentage ofthe maximum demand met during the day, peak hour shortage was the shapest in Jammu and Kashmir at 8.2% for April followed bby Anda Pradesh a 4.6%, In Haryana, Utar Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan, the peak hour shortage was 23% ofthe maximum demand me dating the dy ‘Target Vs Actual Power Generation ‘Another metre that offers a measure of power shortages is programmed or planned power generation compared to actual supply This data, collated ffom the Central Electricity Authority, thre up the sharpest deficits in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Chhatisgar, along with Andhra Pradesh,However, the actual deficit is likely tobe larger than wit is measured by the dil ference between programmed and actual generation, since targets for generation are st as per availability of cael stocks and the state's buying capacity Low Supply, High Demand ‘Amid rising summer temperatutes and heat waves, demand for power is near a peak. The maximum allndie power demend met rose to record igh (201 gigawatts on April 26, according toa press release by the Ministry of power. “Monthly electricity demand in 2022 is expected to peak astound 32 billion klowat hours, 15% higher than the January-March average but similar {©2021 and 2019, Fitch Ratings said in estimates published ealier this month. "A commensurate inetease in electricity generation to meet the increased demand is unlikely, ited by the avalablity of coal, which accounts for two-thirds of the power generated in India," Fitch Ratings said Daa for coal supplies suggests material shortages. The country has 173 thermal power plans, of which 106 have ential levels of coal reserves, according toa daily update by the Central Flectricity Authority Coal socks of five to seven days are considered critical depending on the hind of plant ‘The share of imported coal may rise in 2022, reversing the share reduction 1 5% in 2021 from 99% in 2020 and 1 However, exoritantly high intematonal coal prices would limit any significant increase in coal imports. Domest the pesk ofthe monsoon between July and Sepssmber, which may hurt coal mining and transportation jn 2019, Fitch Ratings said ‘coal supplies could also be affected ‘Thete are other factors preventing an adequate level of coal stocks at power plats, ‘Supplies ate low at plants due to non-payment of pat dues by some states Kasat said In edition, erate rainfall Mooded coal pts in the dy season ‘his year, significantly disrupting coal supplies, he said “These factor are accompanied wit a post-pandemie economic recovery tit as heightened demand for resource, including power, sid Kast, planing the core mismatch in supply and demand Measures To Ease Shortages ‘To ensure swift supply of coal across power plants, the Indien Railways has deployed additional tains and rakes, she Ministry of Raiivays said in an ‘April 25 statement The movement of coal trains has heen provssed and each and every train s being monitored, it added, ‘The Government of India has urged states to sep up coal import forthe next thre years to build up inventories and satisfy demand, Reuters reported fon Wednesday. BloorsbersQuint could not independently verify this.Sl, power production could take two-three months to stabilise, Nitin Bansal, associate director, India Ratings and Research Pv, said. ‘Vikram V, vice president for comporate ratings at ICRA Ld, sad that wind and hydco power generation is expected tick in from next month and should help ease te situation, foal supply does not catch up, his would reslt in more power outages in summer end a diversion of coal fom non-powerseetrs such as aluminiom, cement, stel, weighing on industrial output and increasing electricity costs, Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi, India economi ‘Nomura, wrote in an April 19 note. "This could become another stagflationary shock"