You are on page 1of 108



APPETITE FOR CREATIVE DESTRUCTION – MACHINE


LEARNING FOR ACOUSTIC SENSOR OPERATION IN ANTI-
SUBMARINE WARFARE
0DMRU&RUH\7D\ORU


JCSP 46  PCEMI 46

Master of Defence Studies Maîtrise en études de la défense


Disclaimer Avertissement
 
2SLQLRQVH[SUHVVHGUHPDLQWKRVHRIWKHDXWKRUDQGGR /HVRSLQRQVH[SULPpHVQ¶HQJDJHQWTXHOHXUVDXWHXUVHW
QRWUHSUHVHQW'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHRU QHUHIOqWHQWDXFXQHPHQWGHVSROLWLTXHVGX0LQLVWqUHGH
&DQDGLDQ)RUFHVSROLF\7KLVSDSHUPD\QRWEHXVHG OD'pIHQVHQDWLRQDOHRXGHV)RUFHVFDQDGLHQQHV&H
ZLWKRXWZULWWHQSHUPLVVLRQ SDSLHUQHSHXWrWUHUHSURGXLWVDQVDXWRULVDWLRQpFULWH
 
 

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHG ‹6D0DMHVWpOD5HLQHGX&KHIGX&DQDGDUHSUpVHQWpHSDUOH

E\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG  PLQLVWUHGHOD'pIHQVHQDWLRQDOH7RXVGURLWVUpVHUYpV









&$1$',$1)25&(6&2//(*(a&2//Ê*('(6)25&(6&$1$',(11(6
-&63a3&(0,
0$<

'()(1&(5(6($5&+3$3(5

APPETITE FOR CREATIVE DESTRUCTION – MACHINE LEARNING FOR


ACOUSTIC SENSOR OPERATION IN ANTI-SUBMARINE WARFARE

%\3DUOH0DMRU&RUH\7D\ORU


³7KLVSDSHUZDVZULWWHQE\DFDQGLGDWH ©/DSUpVHQWHpWXGHDpWpUpGLJpHSDUXQ
DWWHQGLQJWKH&DQDGLDQ)RUFHV&ROOHJHLQ VWDJLDLUHGX&ROOqJHGHV)RUFHV
IXOILOOPHQWRIRQHRIWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVRIWKH FDQDGLHQQHVSRXUVDWLVIDLUHjO¶XQHGHV
&RXUVHRI6WXGLHV7KHSDSHULVDVFKRODVWLF H[LJHQFHVGXFRXUV/¶pWXGHHVWXQGRFXPHQW
GRFXPHQWDQGWKXVFRQWDLQVIDFWVDQG TXLVHUDSSRUWHDXFRXUVHWFRQWLHQWGRQF
RSLQLRQVZKLFKWKHDXWKRUDORQHFRQVLGHUHG GHVIDLWVHWGHVRSLQLRQVTXHVHXOO¶DXWHXU
DSSURSULDWHDQGFRUUHFWIRUWKHVXEMHFW,W FRQVLGqUHDSSURSULpVHWFRQYHQDEOHVDX
GRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\UHIOHFWWKHSROLF\RUWKH VXMHW(OOHQHUHIOqWHSDVQpFHVVDLUHPHQWOD
RSLQLRQRIDQ\DJHQF\LQFOXGLQJWKH SROLWLTXHRXO¶RSLQLRQG¶XQRUJDQLVPH
*RYHUQPHQWRI&DQDGDDQGWKH&DQDGLDQ TXHOFRQTXH\FRPSULVOHJRXYHUQHPHQWGX
'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH7KLVSDSHU &DQDGDHWOHPLQLVWqUHGHOD'pIHQVH
PD\QRWEHUHOHDVHGTXRWHGRUFRSLHG QDWLRQDOHGX&DQDGD,OHVWGpIHQGXGH
H[FHSWZLWKWKHH[SUHVVSHUPLVVLRQRIWKH GLIIXVHUGHFLWHURXGHUHSURGXLUHFHWWH
&DQDGLDQ'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO pWXGHVDQVODSHUPLVVLRQH[SUHVVHGX
'HIHQFH´ PLQLVWqUHGHOD'pIHQVHQDWLRQDOHª
 
:RUG&RXQW 1RPEUHGHPRWV

 


L

TABLE OF CONTENTS
$%675$&7 LL
&+$37(5,1752'8&7,21 
&+$37(5%$&.*5281'%$6,&6 
&+$37(5352%/(0)5$0,1* 
&+$37(55(/$7,21720$&+,1(/($51,1*,127+(5),(/'6 
&+$37(57$&7,&$/&216,'(5$7,216 
&+$37(5$'9(56$5<,1,7,$7,9(6 
&+$37(5$//,(',1,7,$7,9(6 
&+$37(5&$1$',$1,1,7,$7,9(6 
&+$37(575$16)(55$%/($6:,1,7,$7,9(6 
&+$37(5$1$/<6,6$1'5(&200(1'$7,216 
&+$37(5&21&/86,21 
%,%/,2*5$3+< 









LL

ABSTRACT

 $QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH $6: RYHUWKHODVWFHQWXU\KDVFRQVLVWHGRIDEDODQFHEHWZHHQ

FXWWLQJHGJHWHFKQRORJ\DQGDQDIILQLW\IRUPDLQWDLQLQJWKHVWDWXVTXR0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ 0/ 

KDVEHHQDUHODWLYHO\UHFHQWWUDQVIRUPDWLYHWHFKQRORJ\WKDWKDVEHHQDSSOLHGWRFRXQWOHVV

LQGXVWULHVDQGSURGXFWVDQGKDVEHHQVXFFHVVIXOO\DSSOLHGLQUHVHDUFKVHWWLQJVWRFODVVLI\VKLSV

VXEPDULQHVDQGPDULQHOLIH7KLVSDSHUH[SORUHVZKHWKHU0/FRXOGSRWHQWLDOO\PDNHWKHOHDS

IURPWKHUHVHDUFKODERUDWRU\WR&DQDGLDQVKLSVDLUFUDIWDQGVXEPDULQHVWRH[HFXWHWKHLQGLYLGXDO

WDVNVFXUUHQWO\FDUULHGRXWE\DFRXVWLFVHQVRURSHUDWRUV

7KHDQDO\VLVLQWKLVSDSHUFRYHUVHIIRUWVE\WKH*RYHUQPHQWRI&DQDGDDQGWKH

&$)'1'WROD\DSROLF\JURXQGZRUNIRUWKHDGRSWLRQRIGDWDPDQDJHPHQWDQG$UWLILFLDO

,QWHOOLJHQFH $, ORRNVDWWKHVWDWXVRIWKHSODQQHGDFTXLVLWLRQRIQHZ$6:QDYDOYHVVHOVDQG

DLUFUDIWRI&DQDGDDOOLHGQDWLRQVDQGRXUDGYHUVDULHVDQGH[SORUHVWKHWDVNVRIVHQVRURSHUDWRUV

WKURXJKDOOSKDVHVRIWKH$6:PLVVLRQIURPSUHPLVVLRQLQIRUPDWLRQJDWKHULQJDQGPLVVLRQ

SODQQLQJWKURXJKWRWKHGHWHFWLRQDQGWUDFNLQJRIDVXEPDULQHLQUHDOWLPHWRSRVWPLVVLRQGDWD

H[WUDFWLRQDQGLQWHOOLJHQFHSURGXFWLRQ7KHSRWHQWLDOWRHQKDQFHWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRI$6:XQLWV

H[HFXWHPRUHWDVNVFRQFXUUHQWO\DQGUHGXFHFRVWVLQWHUPVRIPDQQLQJDQGQXPEHURISODWIRUPV

UHTXLUHGLVH[DPLQHGWKURXJKDUHYLHZRIWKHWDVNVRIWKHRSHUDWRUVDQGFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKLQ

$,0/ZLWKGLUHFW$6:DSSOLFDWLRQVDVZHOODVKRZLWLVXVHGLQRWKHULQGXVWULHV

7KLVSDSHUFRQFOXGHVWKDW0/KDVPDVVLYHSRWHQWLDOIRUDXJPHQWLQJDQGXOWLPDWHO\

UHSODFLQJKXPDQVHQVRURSHUDWRUVLQ$6:WKDWOHYHUDJLQJWKLVWHFKQRORJ\RQIXWXUHSODWIRUPV

ZLOOFRQWULEXWHVLJQLILFDQWO\WRRXUQDWLRQDOLQWHUHVWVDQGKHOSWRHQVXUH&DQDGDUHPDLQVD

UHOHYDQWDQGFDSDEOH$6:SDUWQHUDPRQJRXUDOOLHV

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

,WZDVRQHWKLQJWRXVHFRPSXWHUVDVDWRROTXLWHDQRWKHUWROHWWKHPGR\RXUWKLQNLQJIRU
\RX

 7RP&ODQF\7KH+XQWIRU5HG2FWREHU


$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH $6: LVZLGHO\UHFRJQL]HGE\H[SHUWVZLWKLQWKH&DQDGLDQ

$UPHG)RUFHV &$) DQGDPRQJRXUDOOLHVDVD³FDWDQGPRXVHJDPH´RIRQHXSVPDQVKLSDQG

WHFKQRORJLFDODGYDQFHPHQWZKLFKVHHNVWRDFKLHYHDQGPDLQWDLQDQ\DGYDQWDJHRYHURQH¶V

DGYHUVDU\ZKHWKHULQUHDOWLPHDWWKHWDFWLFDOOHYHORULQDEURDGHUVHQVHXVLQJLPSURYHPHQWVLQ

WHFKQRORJ\RQVXEPDULQHVDQGWKHSODWIRUPVWKDWKXQWWKHP7KLVDUWRIFKDVLQJDQHYDVLYH

VXEPDULQHLQLWVRZQHOHPHQWUHTXLUHVDVHWRIVNLOOVKRQHGRYHUGHFDGHVDQGLQFXOFDWHGLQWRWKH

FXUUHQWJHQHUDWLRQRI$6:ZDUULRUV,WLVDSHULVKDEOHFDSDELOLW\WKDWLIQRWUHJXODUO\SUDFWLFHG

GHWHULRUDWHVTXLFNO\DQG&DQDGDLVDWULVNRIEHLQJOHIWEHKLQGLQWKHQH[WDGYDQFHPHQWRI$6:

FDSDELOLWLHV

:LWKWKHHQGRIWKH&ROG:DUDQGWKHVXEVHTXHQWUHGXFHG6RYLHWVXEPDULQHSDWUROV

WKURXJKRXWWKHVDQGHDUO\VVRPH&DQDGLDQFRPPDQGHUVTXHVWLRQHGWKHQHHGWR

PDLQWDLQ&DQDGD¶V$6:H[SHUWLVHLQWKHIDFHRIDGLPLQLVKHGDGYHUVDU\WKUHDW)URPWKHPLG

VRQZDUGFRQIOLFWVLQ$IJKDQLVWDQDQG,UDTUHIRFXVHGWKH&$)¶VHIIRUWVRQ

³FRXQWHULQVXUJHQF\FRXQWHUWHUURULVPFRXQWHUSLUDF\DQGSHDFHVXSSRUWRSHUDWLRQV´DQGIXUWKHU

DZD\IURPRYHUZDWHUUROHVLQFOXGLQJKXQWLQJIRUVXEPDULQHV7KH&DQDGLDQ&3

FRPPXQLW\IRUH[DPSOHWUDQVIHUUHGUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRU$FRXVWLF6HQVRU2SHUDWRUGXWLHVIURP$LU

1DYLJDWRUVZKRZHUHWUDGLWLRQDOO\RIILFHUVWR$LUERUQH(OHFWURQLF6HQVRU2SHUDWRUV $(62S 



 *DUHWK(YDQV³&DWDQG0RXVH7KH$UWRI6XEPDULQH'HWHFWLRQ´1DYDO7HFKQRORJ\FRP-XQH
KWWSVZZZQDYDOWHFKQRORJ\FRPIHDWXUHVIHDWXUH

&KULV7KDWFKHU³6XEPDULQH+XQWHU´5&$)7RGD\
KWWSVDUP\FDIRUXPVLQGH[SKS"DFWLRQ GODWWDFKWRSLF DWWDFK 

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


DQGFXWWKHQXPEHURISRVLWLRQVIRUWKLVGXW\VLJQLILFDQWO\ZKLOHWKH1DY\UHWDLQHG621$5

2SHUDWRUV 621$52SV EXWDOVRVDZOHVV$6:WUDLQLQJWDNHSODFH

7KURXJKWKHODVWGHFDGHVXEPDULQHGHSOR\PHQWVKDYHULVHQWROHYHOVQRWVHHQVLQFHWKH

HQGRIWKH&ROG:DUZLWKPDQ\QDWLRQVJURZLQJWKHLUVXEPDULQHIOHHWV$FKLHYLQJDQHGJH

RYHURQH¶VXQGHUZDWHUDGYHUVDULHVUHTXLUHVRSHUDWLRQDOXQLWVVXIILFLHQWO\PDQQHGZLWKFDSDEOH

H[SHULHQFHGRSHUDWRUVWRQRWRQO\FDUU\RXWWKHLURZQGLIILFXOWPLVVLRQVEXWDOVRWRFRQFXUUHQWO\

WUDLQWKHQH[WJHQHUDWLRQRIZDUULRUV&DQDGLDQ$6:VHQVRURSHUDWRUV $(62SVDQG621$5

2SVSDUWLFXODUO\ KRZHYHUKDYHEHHQFKDOOHQJHGWREXLOGWKHLUPDQQLQJDQGH[SHUWLVHEDFNWR

OHYHOVSUHVHQWGXULQJWKHKHLJKWRI&ROG:DU$6:RSHUDWLRQV

7KHDXWKRURIWKLVSDSHUZDVRQHRIWKHDIRUHPHQWLRQHG&3$LU1DYLJDWRUV$FRXVWLF

6HQVRU2IILFHUZLWKIROORZRQSRVWLQJVWRXQLWVWKDWFRQWLQXHGWRWUDLQ$(62SVDQG621$5

2SVLQXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVLQFOXGLQJPRVWUHFHQWO\EDFNDWDQ$6:IRFXVHGRSHUDWLRQDOXQLW

WKURXJKWKHUHFHQWSHULRGRIKHLJKWHQHGVXEPDULQHRSHUDWLRQV7KHVHH[SHULHQFHVKDYHDOOEHHQ

WLHGLQVRPHZD\WRWKHFKDOOHQJHRIUHWDLQLQJDQGHQKDQFLQJ$6:VHQVRURSHUDWRUV¶H[SHUWLVH

DQGKDYHLQIRUPHGWKLVSDSHU

7HFKQRORJLFDOO\&DQDGLDQDFRXVWLFSURFHVVLQJV\VWHPVDQGRWKHUVHQVRUVXVHGLQ$6:

DUHUHFRJQL]HGDVDPRQJWKHEHVWLQWKHZRUOG7KHVHV\VWHPVKRZHYHUDUHEHJLQQLQJWRDJH

DQGDVZHORRNDWWKHWLPHOLQHVWKDWZLOOEHUHTXLUHGIRUSURFXUHPHQWRIWKHQH[WJHQHUDWLRQRI

$6:VKLSVDQGDLUFUDIWWRFRXQWHUIXWXUHJHQHUDWLRQVRIDGYHUVDU\VXEPDULQHVZKLFKZLOOQR

GRXEWEHPRUHVWHDOWK\DQGZKRVHPRYHPHQWVZLOOEHKDUGHUWRGHWHFWDQGWUDFNLWLVDSSDUHQW

WKDWWKHWLPHLVQRZWRFRQVLGHUKRZWRDFKLHYHWKHQH[WERXQGLQ$6:VHQVRUWHFKQRORJ\



&RPPDQGHU:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH±$)RUHFDVWIRU0DULWLPH$LU
$6:LQWKH)XWXUH2SHUDWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQW´1$72-RLQW$LU3RZHU&RPSHWHQFH&HQWUH-XQH7KDWFKHU
³6XEPDULQH+XQWHU´

7KDWFKHU³6XEPDULQH+XQWHU´

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


7KLVSDSHU¶VWLWOHDOOXGHVWR³FUHDWLYHGHVWUXFWLRQ´DFRQFHSWERUURZHGIURP(ULF7RSRO¶V

ERRNRQKRZWHFKQRORJ\ZDVRQWKHYHUJHRIUHYROXWLRQL]LQJPHGLFLQHDQGZKLFKKHLQ

WXUQKDGERUURZHGIURP-RVHSK6FKXPSHWHUDQ$XVWULDQHFRQRPLVWZKRXVHGWKHWHUPWR

³GHQRWHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQWKDWDFFRPSDQLHVUDGLFDOLQQRYDWLRQ´

/LNHZLVHWKHDLPRIWKLVSDSHULVWRRXWOLQHKRZDGYDQFHVLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ 0/ 

FRXOGUDGLFDOO\FKDQJHWKHILHOGRI$6:WKURXJKDSSOLFDWLRQWRWKHVHQVRURSHUDWRUWDVNV

FXUUHQWO\FDUULHGRXWE\KXPDQVHQVRURSHUDWRUVLQ$6:DVZHOODVWRGHPRQVWUDWHKRZ

&DQDGD¶VPDQQLQJFKDOOHQJHVSRVLWLRQDVDWHFKQRORJ\OHDGHUDQGFXUUHQWVWDJHVLQWKH

DFTXLVLWLRQSURFHVVRIQHZ$6:SODWIRUPVUHSUHVHQWDQLGHDOWLPHWRFRQVLGHUPDNLQJZKDW

DPRXQWVWRDQHVVHQWLDOWHFKQRORJLFDOOHDSIRU&DQDGD¶VQH[WJHQHUDWLRQRI$6:SODWIRUPVLQ

RUGHUWRPDLQWDLQRXUSRVLWLRQDVDFDSDEOH$6:SDUWQHU7KLVOHDSZLOOHQWDLOWHDULQJGRZQRU

µFUHDWLYHO\GHVWUR\LQJ¶FXUUHQWVWUXFWXUHVDQGPLQGVHWVZLWKLQWKH&$)EXWZLOOEHDQHFHVVDU\

VWHSWRNHHSSDFHZLWKDGYDQFHPHQWVWKDWDUHFXUUHQWO\XQGHUZD\

&KDSWHUWDNHVWKHUHDGHUWKURXJKDQRYHUYLHZRIWKHEDVLFSULQFLSOHVRI$6:$,DQG

0/FRQFHSWVDQGVRPHRIWKHSROLFLHVRIWKH&$)DVWKH\UHODWHWRWKHPLOLWDU\DGRSWLRQRI$,

:KLOHVRPHUHDGHUVPD\ILQGWKHFRQWHQWVRIWKLVFKDSWHUTXLWHEDVLFIRUWKRVHZLWKRXWD

EDFNJURXQGLQHLWKHU$6:RU$,0/WKLVFKDSWHUOD\VWKHJURXQGZRUNIRUWKHGLVFXVVLRQVWR

IROORZ&KDSWHUJLYHVDQRYHUYLHZRIWKH$6:VHQVRURSHUDWRURFFXSDWLRQVDQGWKHWDVNV

FDUULHGRXWE\WKHVHKLJKO\WUDLQHGSHUVRQQHODVZHOODVIUDPHVVRPHRIWKHFKDOOHQJHVLQKHUHQW

LQGHDOLQJZLWKWKHPDVVLYHDPRXQWVRIGDWDJHQHUDWHGE\PRGHUQDFRXVWLFVHQVRUV&KDSWHU

H[DPLQHVVRPHUHFHQWUHVHDUFKLQWRWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRI0/WRDFRXVWLFDQDO\VLVDVZHOODVPDQ\

RIWKHFXUUHQWDSSOLFDWLRQVRI0/LQRWKHUILHOGVDQGKRZWKH\FRXOGSRWHQWLDOO\EHDSSOLHGWR



(ULF7RSRO7KH&UHDWLYH'HVWUXFWLRQRI0HGLFLQH+RZWKH'LJLWDO5HYROXWLRQ:LOO&UHDWH%HWWHU+HDOWK&DUH
1HZ<RUN%DVLF%RRNV Y

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WDVNVFDUULHGRXWE\RSHUDWRUVWKURXJKWKHSKDVHVRI$6::KLOHWKLVSDSHUGRHVQRWFRQWDLQD

WUDGLWLRQDOOLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZDVUHIHUHQFHVWRFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKDQGDUWLFOHVDSSHDUDFURVVVHYHUDO

FKDSWHUVUHDGHUVVHHNLQJFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKDQGDUWLFOHVUHODWHGWR$,0/DQG$6:ZLOOILQGWKH

PDMRULW\RIWKHPGLVFXVVHGLQ&KDSWHU&KDSWHURXWOLQHVVRPHWDFWLFDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVWKDW

ZLOOQHHGWREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWLI0/LVWRWUDQVLWLRQIURPODERUDWRU\DQGUHVHDUFKVHWWLQJVWRD

UHDOZRUOGDSSOLFDWLRQLQDQRSHUDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQW&KDSWHUVDQGRXWOLQHUHVSHFWLYHO\

LQLWLDWLYHVRIDGYHUVDULHVDOOLHVDQG&DQDGLDQVSHFLILFLQLWLDWLYHVDVWKH\UHODWHWR$6:DVZHOO

DVFXUUHQWDQGIXWXUHSODWIRUPV&KDSWHUORRNVDWVRPHLQLWLDWLYHVLQRWKHUILHOGVDQGFXWWLQJ

HGJHUHVHDUFKWKDWFRXOGRQHGD\EHWUDQVIHUUDEOHWR$6:&KDSWHUUHFRPPHQGVDVHTXHQFH

RIVWHSVRUVWDJHVWKDWZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGIRU&DQDGDWRWDNH0/IURPDODERUDWRU\UHVHDUFK

VHWWLQJWRIXOODSSOLFDWLRQRQUHDOWLPHWDFWLFDOSODWIRUPV

%HIRUHRXWOLQLQJVRPHEDVLFFRQFHSWVLQWKHQH[WFKDSWHUWZRFDYHDWVQHHGWREH

DGGUHVVHG7KHILUVWLVWKDWWKLVSDSHUUHOLHVVWULFWO\RQXQFODVVLILHGVRXUFHV$ZHOONQRZQ

D[LRPLQ$6:FLUFOHVDQGRQHWKDWLVFRPSOHWHO\XQWUXHLVWKDW³VXEPDULQHUVQHYHUFKHDWDQG

VHOGRPOLH´7KURXJKWKHXVHRIXQFODVVLILHGVRXUFHVWKHUHLVDGDQJHUWKDWFDSDELOLWLHVRI

V\VWHPVLQH[LVWHQFHRUXQGHUGHYHORSPHQWKDYHEHHQHLWKHUXQGHURURYHUUHSRUWHGZLWKWKH

SRWHQWLDOLPSDFWRIWKHDUJXPHQWVDQGFRQFOXVLRQVLQWKLVSDSHUSRWHQWLDOO\EHLQJFRORXUHGE\

GLVLQIRUPDWLRQRUE\WKHKLGLQJRIWKHWUXHFDSDELOLWLHVRIRQH¶VV\VWHPVRUSODWIRUPV

$VHFRQGFDYHDWLVWKDWZKLOHWKHUHLVVLJQLILFDQWGLVFXVVLRQRQHWKLFVZLWKLQPLOLWDU\

DSSOLFDWLRQVRI$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH $, DQG0/VXFKDVZLWK*RRJOH¶V3URMHFW0DYHQDQG



1RWH7KLVH[SUHVVLRQFRPHVIURPWKHµGROSKLQFRGH¶ZKLFKDVGHVFULEHGRQVHYHUDOZHEVLWHV VXFKDV
KWWSVZZZVXEPDULQHVDXVWUDOLDFRPXSSHULVFRSHGROSKLQFRGHKWPO ³ZDVDPHWKRGRIHQFU\SWHG
FRPPXQLFDWLRQVGHVLJQHGWRHQDEOHVXEPDULQHVVXEPDULQHUVVKLSFDSWDLQVKHOLFRSWHUSLORWVDQWLVXEPDULQHDLUFUDIW
WRVSHDNWRHDFKRWKHULQDUHDVRIVXEPDULQHRSHUDWLRQVRULQPDQ\FDVHVVRFLDODQGGRPHVWLFDFWLYLWLHVVXUURXQGLQJ
SHRSOHRI7KH7UDGH´

*OREDO1HZV³:KDWLV3URMHFW0DYHQ"7KH3HQWDJRQ$,SURMHFW*RRJOHHPSOR\HHVZDQWRXWRI´
*OREDO1HZVFD$SULOKWWSVJOREDOQHZVFDQHZVJRRJOHSHQWDJRQDLSURMHFWPDYHQ

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WKHHWKLFVRIDOORZLQJDXWRQRPRXVV\VWHPVWRPDNHOHWKDOGHFLVLRQVZLWKRXWDKXPDQLQWKHORRS

WKLVSDSHUZLOOFRQFHQWUDWHPRUHQDUURZO\RQWKHDELOLW\RIDV\VWHPWRGHULYHLQIRUPDWLRQIURP

VHQVRUVDQGSURYLGHLWWRKXPDQGHFLVLRQPDNHUV7KHHWKLFVRIDXWRQRPRXVZHDSRQGHOLYHU\

DQGWKHPRUHJHQHUDOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI0/WRFDUU\RXWPLOLWDU\WDVNVDUHLPSRUWDQWWRSLFDUHDV

WKDWFHUWDLQO\UHTXLUHIXUWKHUDWWHQWLRQDQGUHVHDUFKEXWDUHEH\RQGWKHVFRSHRIWKLVVWXG\


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND/BASICS

ASW – “AWFULLY SLOW WARFARE” NO MORE

$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUHZDVRQFHWKRXJKWRIDVVORZDVLWLQYROYHGSODWIRUPV

VRPHWLPHVRQO\GRLQJDIHZNQRWVDWVHD,WQRZFRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGWRRFFXUDWWKH³VSHHGRI

LQIRUPDWLRQ´VSHFLILFDOO\WKHVSHHGDWZKLFKKXPDQFUHZVDERDUGWKHSODWIRUPVFDQSURFHVVWKH

YDVWDPRXQWVRILQIRUPDWLRQDUULYLQJWKURXJKWKHLUVHQVRUV+RZHYHUEHIRUHDGGUHVVLQJKRZ

0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJFRXOGSOD\DUROHLQPDQDJLQJWKLVGHOXJHRILQIRUPDWLRQLQWKHFKDSWHUVWKDW

IROORZWKLVFKDSWHUZLOOSURYLGHDQRYHUYLHZRIZKDW$6:$,DQG0/DUHDQGZLOOKLJKOLJKW

VRPHRIWKHSROLFLHVDURXQGWKHXVHRI$,DQG0/LQDPLOLWDU\FRQWH[W

5HJDUGOHVVRIWKHOHYHORIKRVWLOLWLHVDQXQORFDWHGDGYHUVDU\VXEPDULQHFDQWKUHDWHQ

IUHHGRPRIPRYHPHQWWKURXJKPDULWLPHFKRNHSRLQWVRUDFURVVDUHDVRIRSHQRFHDQ,QWLPHVRI

FRQIOLFWDVXEPDULQHFDQVWHDOWKLO\SRVLWLRQLWVHOIFORVHHQRXJKWRDWDVNJURXSWRVKRRWDWDQG

SRWHQWLDOO\VLQNKLJKYDOXHVKLSVVXFKDVDLUFUDIWFDUULHUVRUUHVXSSO\VKLSV3RVLWLRQHGFORVHO\

HQRXJKWRDQDOOLHGVKRUHOLQHXQGHWHFWHGVXEPDULQHVZLWKPRGHUQFUXLVHPLVVLOHVFRXOGDWWDFN

LQODQGWDUJHWV$V&RPPDQGHU:LOOLDP3HUNLQVZULWHVLQKLV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$6:GRFXPHQW

³DORQHVXEPDULQHFDQGRPRUHGDPDJHLQERWKDPLOLWDU\DQGDSROLWLFDOVHQVHWKDQSUREDEO\DQ\

RWKHUVLQJOHFRQYHQWLRQDOSODWIRUPQDYDORUPLOLWDU\´,QRUGHUWRPLWLJDWHRUDYRLGWKHVH

HIIHFWV$6:FRRUGLQDWHGDPRQJPXOWLSOHQDWLRQVLVXVHGWRNHHSWDEVRQWKHORFDWLRQVDQGWR

WKHH[WHQWSRVVLEOHWKHLQWHQWLRQVRIDGYHUVDU\VXEPDULQHV$GPLUDO-DPHV6WDYULGLVLQOLNHQLQJ

VXEPDULQHVWRVKDUNVZLWKERWKFRQVWUXFWHGWRVLOHQWO\KXQWDQGNLOOWKHLUSUH\ZURWH



7KH7HFKQLXP³7KH6SHHGRI,QIRUPDWLRQ´NNRUJDFFHVVHG0D\KWWSVNNRUJWKHWHFKQLXPWKH
VSHHGRILQ

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´&KDSWHURI3HUNLQV¶-3$&&
GRFXPHQWKDVDYHU\JRRGSULPHURQ$6:DQGVRXQGVRXUFHV,WDOVRSURYLGHVRQHRIWKHIHZXQFODVVLILHGVRXUFHV
IRUWKLVW\SHRILQIRUPDWLRQFRPSLOHGLQRQHSODFHDQGDVVXFKLVKHDYLO\UHIHUHQFHGLQWKLVSDSHU)RUIXUWKHU
UHDGLQJEH\RQGZKDWLVVXPPDUL]HGKHUHWKDWGRFXPHQWSURYLGHVDJUHDWRYHUYLHZDQGLVKLJKO\UHFRPPHQGHG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


³RFFDVLRQDOO\LWEHFRPHVQHFHVVDU\WRILQGDQGGHVWUR\WKHP±WRNHHSRSHQVHDODQHVRI

FRPPXQLFDWLRQWRVZHHSDQDUHDDQGPDNHLWVDIHIRUDOOLHGVKLSSLQJ'HVWUR\LQJDVXEPDULQH,

WKLQNLVWKHKDUGHVWWDVNLQQDYDOZDUIDUH´

$6:DVWKHQDPHLPSOLHVLVWKHPHWKRGE\ZKLFKWKHVHWDVNVDUHFDUULHGRXW,WFDQEHD

VLQJOHSODWIRUPRUDFRRUGLQDWHGHIIRUWDPRQJVXEVXUIDFHVXUIDFHDLUDQGVKRUHEDVHGDVVHWV

DWWHPSWLQJWRVHDUFKIRUGHWHFWORFDOL]HWUDFNDQGZKHQQHFHVVDU\DWWDFNRQHRUPRUH

VXEPDULQHV7KHVHVWDJHVRI$6:UHO\RQDVXLWHRIVHQVRUVZKLFKDUHJHQHUDOO\UHIHUUHGWRDV

SDVVLYHRUDFWLYH

+LVWRULFDOO\WKHSULPDU\VHQVRUXVHGIRU$6:ZDV6RXQG1DYLJDWLRQDQG5DQJLQJ

621$5 ZLWKSDVVLYHV\VWHPVZKLFK³GHWHFWHPLVVLRQVIURPDWDUJHWRULWVLQIOXHQFHRQWKH

HQYLURQPHQWZLWKRXWWKHHPLVVLRQRIHQHUJ\IURPWKHVHQVRU´XVHGEHJLQQLQJLQDQGDFWLYH

V\VWHPVDGRSWHGE\WKHFORVHRI::,7KHVHV\VWHPVKDYHRYHUWLPHEHFRPHDXJPHQWHGE\

PDQ\RWKHUVLQFOXGLQJUDGLRGLUHFWLRQILQGLQJ(OHFWUR2SWLFDO,QIUD5HG (2,5 QLJKWYLVLRQ

JRJJOHVYLVXDOREVHUYDWLRQXVLQJJ\URVWDELOL]HGELQRFXODUVGLJLWDOSKRWRJUDSK\HOHFWURQLF

ZDUIDUH DQWLUDGDUDQWLUDGLRLQWHOOLJHQFHJDWKHULQJDQGGLUHFWLRQILQGLQJ FRPPXQLFDWLRQV

LQWHOOLJHQFHPDJQHWLFDQRPDO\GHWHFWLRQDQGEURDGUDQJHRI5$'$5FDSDELOLWLHVLQFOXGLQJ

LPDJLQJPRGHVWRFODVVLI\YHVVHOV

3DVVLYH621$5ZKLFK³OLVWHQVWRWKHVRXQGLQWKHRFHDQDQGWULHVWRILQGWKHQRLVHWKDW

WKHVXEPDULQHPDNHVLQWKHZDWHU´ZDVWKHVHQVRURIFKRLFHIRU$6:WKURXJKRXWWKH&ROG:DU

LQSDUWLFXODUDJDLQVWHDUOLHUJHQHUDWLRQVRIQRLVLHUQXFOHDUSRZHUHGVXEPDULQHV7KHVHV\VWHPV



-DPHV6WDYULGLV'HVWUR\HU&DSWDLQ/HVVRQVRID)LUVW&RPPDQG 1DYDO,QVWLWXWH3UHVV 

1$720DULWLPH0XOWL0LVVLRQ$LUFUDIW 0$ 6WDWHPHQWRI2SHUDWLRQDO5HTXLUHPHQW 625 ±QG'UDIW
0DUFK(QF\FORSHGLD%ULWDQQLFD2QOLQHKWWSVZZZEULWDQQLFDFRPWHFKQRORJ\621$5

&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHDQG&DQDGLDQ$UPHG)RUFHV5R\DO&DQDGLDQ1DY\ZHEVLWH
DFFHVVHG0DUFKKWWSZZZQDY\PDULQHIRUFHVJFFDHQLQQRYDWLRQLQQRYDWLRQ
YLHZSDJH"GRF XQGHUZDWHUZDUIDUHVXLWHXSJUDGHSURWHFWVVDLORUVIURPTXLHWHUVXEPDULQHVDQG
WRUSHGRHVMZPI\VF

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


ZKLFKZHUHHIIHFWLYHIRU³ORQJUDQJHGHWHFWLRQRIQRLV\WDUJHWVLQODUJHERGLHVRIZDWHU´DUHVWLOO

LQXVHDOEHLWDJDLQVWHYHUTXLHWHUVXEPDULQHWDUJHWV

6RXQGVSURGXFHGE\VXEPDULQHVZKLFKFDQEHH[SORLWHGE\DGYHUVDULHVFDQJHQHUDOO\EH

WUDFHGEDFNWRWKUHHGLIIHUHQWFDWHJRULHVRIVRXUFHVSURSXOVLRQSODQWQRLVHSURSHOOHUQRLVHDQG

QRLVHJHQHUDWHGDVZDWHUPRYHVRYHUWKHKXOO7KHSURSXOVLRQDQGSURSHOOHUFDWHJRULHVDUH

PDGHXSRI³URWDWLQJPDFKLQHULHVWKDWDUHXQLTXHWRWKHFODVVRIWKHYHVVHOVRWKHIUHTXHQF\DQG

WKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHVHPDFKLQHU\WRQDOVVKRXOGEHDEOHWRXQLTXHO\FKDUDFWHULVHWKHP´7KH

WKLUGFDWHJRU\FRQVLVWVRI³EURDGEDQGFRPSRQHQWEHFDXVHRIFDYLWDWLRQDQGRWKHUHIIHFWV´

$GYDQFHVLQVXEPDULQHTXLHWLQJWHFKQRORJLHVKDYHLQFOXGHGGHVLJQVWROHVVHQWKH

UDGLDWLRQRIQRLVHRILQGLYLGXDOV\VWHPVDQHFKRLFFRDWLQJVWRUHGXFHDWWHQXDWLRQRIQRLVHVDQG

WKHDGGLWLRQRIWHFKQRORJLHVOLNH$LU,QGHSHQGHQW3URSXOVLRQ $,3 ZKLFKUHGXFHVKRZRIWHQ

FRQYHQWLRQDOVXEPDULQHVQHHGWRPDNHWKHPVHOYHVYXOQHUDEOHE\VXUIDFLQJDQGJHQHUDWHHQJLQH

QRLVHWRUHFKDUJHEDWWHULHV2SHUDWLRQVKDYHDOVRVKLIWHGLQVRPHFDVHVLQWR³DFRXVWLFDOO\QRLV\

OLWWRUDOUHJLRQV´PHDQLQJTXLHWHUVXEPDULQHVRXUFHVDUHPDVNHGE\EXV\VKLSSLQJDQGRWKHU

PDULWLPHWUDIILFFORVHWRVKRUH7KHVHFKDOOHQJHVWRWKHXVHRISDVVLYHDFRXVWLFVHQVRUVKDYH

SXWPRUHHPSKDVLVRQDFWLYHDFRXVWLFV\VWHPVZKLFK³HPSOR\HPLVVLRQVWRGHWHFWDWDUJHWRULWV

LQIOXHQFHRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDQGDUHW\SLFDOO\RYHUWVHQVRUV´$FWLYHVHQVRUVFDQEH

VXEGLYLGHGLQWRIXUWKHUFODVVHVPRQRVWDWLFELVWDWLFRUPXOWLVWDWLFGHSHQGLQJRQZKHWKHUWKH

WUDQVPLWWHUVDQGUHFHLYHUVDUHORFDWHGRQWKHVDPHSODWIRUPRULQWZRRUPRUHORFDWLRQVZRUNLQJ

WRJHWKHUDQGFDQLQFOXGHKXOOPRXQWHG621$5VRQVKLSVDQGVXEPDULQHVDLUFUDIWGHSOR\HG



,ELG

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´

$'DV$.XPDUDQG5%DKO³0DULQHYHVVHOFODVVLILFDWLRQEDVHGRQSDVVLYH621$5GDWDWKHFHSVWUXP
EDVHGDSSURDFK´,(75DGDU621$5 1DYLJDWLRQ  

,ELG

1$720$625$

1$720$625

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


VRQREXR\ILHOGVZKLFKUHOD\WKHVRXQGVLQWKHRFHDQEDFNWRWKHDLUFUDIWYLDUDGLRWUDQVPLWWHUDQG

GLSSLQJDFWLYH621$5VVWUHDPHGIURPKRYHULQJKHOLFRSWHUV

:KLOHDFWLYH621$5KDVW\SLFDOO\EHHQOLPLWHGE\DQLQDELOLW\WRFODVVLI\DVXEPDULQHRU

RWKHUFRQWDFWE\WKHVRXQGUHWXUQHGWRWKHUHFHLYHU³IXWXUHGHYHORSPHQWQRWRQO\LQWKHXVHRI

PXOWLVWDWLFVIRULQLWLDOVXEPDULQHGHWHFWLRQEXWDOVRIRUWDUJHWFODVVLILFDWLRQYLDDFWLYH621$5´

LVDVLJQLILFDQWDUHDRIUHVHDUFK

1$72KDVH[SUHVVHGFRQFHUQRID³JURZLQJULVNWKH$OOLDQFHZLOOILQGLWVHOIXQSUHSDUHG

WRFDSDEO\UHVSRQGWRDSRWHQWLDOLQFUHDVHLQQRQ1$72VXEPDULQHRSHUDWLRQV´0DQ\

FRXQWULHVDUHZRUNLQJWRGHYHORS$6:WHFKQRORJ\DQGWDFWLFVLQFOXGLQJ$,DQG0/LQRUGHUWR

HQVXUHWKH\DUHSUHSDUHGZKHQWKHQHHGDULVHV7KHUHZLOOEHZLGHUDQJLQJFKDQJHVWR$6:DVD

UHVXOWRIDSSO\LQJWKHVHWHFKQRORJLHVWRVHQVRUVDVGLYHUVHDV5$'$50DJQHWLF$QRPDO\

'HWHFWLRQ(OHFWURQLF6XSSRUW0HDVXUHV(OHFWULFDO2SWLFDODQGPDQ\RWKHUVDQGWKH

LPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI0/WRRSHUDWHWKRVHVHQVRUVVKRXOGGHILQLWHO\EHSXUVXHG6LQFHSDVVLYHDQG

DFWLYHDFRXVWLFVDUHDUJXDEO\WKHPRUHGLIILFXOWWDVNVWRRIIORDGWRDFRPSXWHUV\VWHPKRZHYHU

WKHVFRSHRIWKLVSDSHULVOLPLWHGWRWKHFRQGXFWRIWKRVHWDVNV

AI and ML – the Future of ASW

³:LWKLWVSURPLVHRIDXWRPDWLQJPXQGDQHWDVNVDVZHOODVRIIHULQJFUHDWLYHLQVLJKW

LQGXVWULHVLQHYHU\VHFWRUIURPEDQNLQJWRKHDOWKFDUHDQGPDQXIDFWXULQJDUHUHDSLQJWKHEHQHILWV´

RI0/$,DQGRWKHUWHFKQRORJLHVWKDWKDYHEHFRPHEX]]ZRUGVLQUHFHQW\HDUV%HIRUH



:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´

1$720$625

%HUQDUG0DUU³:KDWLVWKH'LIIHUHQFH%HWZHHQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHDQG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ"´)RUEHVFRP
'HFHPEHUKWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVEHUQDUGPDUUZKDWLVWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQDUWLILFLDO
LQWHOOLJHQFHDQGPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDIZHEVLWHDFFHVVHG0DU

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


DGGUHVVLQJWKHSODWIRUPVDQGWKHWDVNVRIWKHRSHUDWRUVDSULPHURQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ$UWLILFLDO

,QWHOOLJHQFH'HHS/HDUQLQJDQGRWKHUFRQFHSWVLVDSSURSULDWH

$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHLV³DV\VWHPRUFRPSRQHQWRIDV\VWHPZKLFKHPXODWHV

DVSHFWVRIKXPDQFRJQLWLRQVXFKDVSHUFHSWLRQUHDVRQLQJSODQQLQJDQGOHDUQLQJVXFK

WKDWLWFDQHQDEOHDFWLRQVHLWKHUGLJLWDOO\RUWKURXJKWKHSRZHULQJRISK\VLFDOV\VWHPV´

%DVLFDOO\$,FDQEHGHVFULEHGDV³DV\VWHPWKDWPDNHVDXWRQRPRXVGHFLVLRQV´$,FDQ

UHFRJQL]HVRXQGVDQGREMHFWVVROYHSUREOHPVXQGHUVWDQGODQJXDJHDQGXVHVWUDWHJ\WRPHHW

JRDOVDQGLVDWHUPWKDWW\SLFDOO\LVDSSOLHGWR³PDFKLQHVEHLQJDEOHWRFDUU\RXWWDVNVLQDZD\

WKDWZHZRXOGFRQVLGHUµVPDUW¶´7KHWHFKQLTXHVLWXVHVWRFDUU\RXWWKHVHWDVNVZLOOEH

GLVFXVVHGLQ&KDSWHU

0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ 0/ LVDVXEVHWRUDSSOLFDWLRQRI$,ZKLFKXVHVDOJRULWKPVWR

DQDO\VHODUJHGDWDVHWVWRPDNHSUHGLFWLRQVDERXWUHODWLRQVKLSVLQWKHGDWDDQGHYHQWXDOO\³WHDFK

WKHPVHOYHVWROHDUQDQGDFW´$NH\SOD\HULQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI0/ZDV*HRII+LQWRQD

SURIHVVRUDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI7RURQWRZKR³LPDJLQHGDQHZNLQGRIQHXUDOQHWRQHPDGHXSRI

PXOWLSOHOD\HUVWKDWHDFKH[WUDFWHGGLIIHUHQWLQIRUPDWLRQXQWLOLWUHFRJQL]HGZKDWLWZDVORRNLQJ

IRU´%\WKHPLGVWKLVGHYHORSPHQWRIQHXUDOQHWZRUNVKDGEHFRPHDWXUQLQJSRLQWLQ

WHDFKLQJFRPSXWHUVWRWUDLQWKHPVHOYHVUDWKHUWKDQKDYLQJDOORIWKHLUDFWLRQVSURJUDPPHG

7KURXJKHVWDEOLVKLQJ³VXFFHVVLYHOD\HUVZKHUHHDFKOD\HULVFRQQHFWHGWRDVPDOOQXPEHURIORFDO

XQLWVEHORZ´DQGKDYLQJHDFKOD\HUFKHFN³IRUVOLJKWO\PRUHFRPSOLFDWHGIHDWXUHVE\FRPELQLQJ

WKHIHDWXUHVEHORZ´FRPSXWHUVPDQDJHWRLQDZD\FODVVLI\³LQIRUPDWLRQLQWKHVDPHZD\D



&DQDGD'1'&$)'DWD6WUDWHJ\&

$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\ 1HZ
<RUN3XEOLF$IIDLUV 

%HUQDUG0DUU³:KDWLVWKH'LIIHUHQFH%HWZHHQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHDQG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ"´

&DQDGD'1'&$)'DWD6WUDWHJ\±&

$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


KXPDQEUDLQGRHV´7KLVSURFHVVDOVRDFNQRZOHGJHVWKDWZKLOHWKHUHPD\EHPDQ\UDZ

DWWULEXWHVRIGDWDWKHUHDUHDPXFKPRUHOLPLWHGQXPEHURILPSRUWDQWDWWULEXWHVWKDWFDQEH

H[WUDFWHGIURPWKHGDWDDQGRIWHQWKHUHDUHKLGGHQRUXQNQRZQUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKHP,Q

LGHQWLI\LQJDQGDVVLJQLQJZHLJKWVWRWKHVHUHODWLRQVKLSVWKHV\VWHP³ZRUNVRQDV\VWHPRI

SUREDELOLW\EDVHGRQGDWDIHGWRLW´DQGPDNHVVWDWHPHQWVGHFLVLRQVRUSUHGLFWLRQVZLWKDQ

DVVRFLDWHGGHJUHHRIFHUWDLQW\$IHHGEDFNORRSZKHUHWKHV\VWHPLVWROGZKHWKHULWVRXWSXWV

DUHULJKWRUZURQJDOORZVWKHV\VWHPWRPRGLI\LWVDOJRULWKPVDQGDGMXVWIXWXUHSUHGLFWLRQV

'HHS1HXUDO1HWZRUNV '11 ZHUHDQRIIVKRRWRIWKHRULJLQDOQHXUDOQHWZRUNVDQG

DSSOLHGZKDWLVFDOOHGµGHHSOHDUQLQJ¶OHDUQLQJRQO\IURPWKHGDWDZLWKRXWWKHQHHGIRUKXPDQ

VXSHUYLVLRQWRWUDLQFRPSXWHUVWRSHUIRUPWDVNV6LQFHEHLQJLPSOHPHQWHGGHHSOHDUQLQJ

QHWZRUNVKDYH³SHUIRUPHGHIILFLHQWO\LQFODVVLILFDWLRQRUUHFRJQLWLRQWDVNV´SDUWLFXODUO\ZKHQIHG

YHU\ODUJHGDWDVHWV3DUWRIWKHDSSHDORIWKHVHQHWZRUNVLVWKDWWKH\GRQRWUHTXLUHDVPXFK

ODEHOHGGDWDDQGFRPSXWLQJSRZHURUVXSHUYLVLRQDQGFDQEHGRQHPXFKIDVWHUZLWKWKH

OHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPDEOHWR³GLVFRYHUDOOWKDWLVQHFHVVDU\E\LWVHOI´:KHUHDVHDUOLHUPHWKRGV

UHTXLUHGXVLQJWKHZKROHGDWDVHWWRWUDLQWKHV\VWHPPRGHUQV\VWHPVFDQGR³VPDOOXSGDWHVRQ

WKHFRQQHFWLRQZHLJKWVDVZHVHHWUDLQLQJLQVWDQFHVRQHDWDWLPH´ZKLFKLVLGHDOEHFDXVHLWFDQ

OHDUQE\XVLQJDIHZH[DPSOHVDWDWLPHDQGDGDSWWRFKDQJHVLQXQGHUO\LQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH

GDWD$VZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGODWHULQWKLVSDSHUWKLVLVUHOHYDQWWRDFRXVWLFDQDO\VLVEHFDXVHDVQHZ



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$, 7KH0,73UHVV ,6%1
%HUQDUG0DUU³:KDWLVWKH'LIIHUHQFH%HWZHHQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHDQG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ"´

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

%HUQDUG0DUU³:KDWLVWKH'LIIHUHQFH%HWZHHQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHDQG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ"´

$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

*XDQJKDR-LQ)DQ/LX+DR:X 4XLQ]HQJ6RQJ  ³'HHS/HDUQLQJEDVHG)UDPHZRUNIRUH[SDQVLRQ
UHFRJQLWLRQDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVLJQDO´-RXUQDORI([SHULPHQWDO 7KHRUHWLFDO$UWLILFLDO
,QWHOOLJHQFH'2,;

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


RUXSGDWHGQDYDOSODWIRUPVFRPHRQOLQHQHZLQIRUPDWLRQLVJDWKHUHGRYHUWLPHDQGDV\VWHPWKDW

³FDQDGDSWVHDPOHVVO\ZLWKRXWQHHGLQJWRVWRSFROOHFWQHZGDWDDQGUHWUDLQ´LVQHHGHG

National and CAF Policies

,QWKH&KLHIRI)RUFH'HYHORSPHQW¶VDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHIXWXUHVHFXULW\HQYLURQPHQWLWLV

DFNQRZOHGJHGWKDW³DGYDQFHVLQVHQVLQJWHFKQRORJLHVZLOOLQFUHDVHWKHDELOLW\WRGHWHFW

FKDUDFWHUL]HDQGHQJDJHSODWIRUPVV\VWHPVDQGLQGLYLGXDOV´7KHVHQHZDQGPRUHZLGHVSUHDG

VHQVLQJFDSDELOLWLHVZLOOH[SDQGWKHDPRXQWRIGDWDEHLQJFROOHFWHGDQGEHLQJDEOHWRGHDOZLWK

WKLVµELJGDWD¶ZLOOEHDVLPSRUWDQWWRPDLQWHQDQFHRIWLPHO\LQWHOOLJHQFHDQGVXSSRUWWRPLOLWDU\

GHFLVLRQPDNHUVDVLWLVLQWKHUHVWRIVRFLHW\5HIHUHQFLQJXQPDQQHGV\VWHPVEXWLQDFRPPHQW

WKDWFRXOGHTXDOO\DSSO\WRSODWIRUPVZKHUHSHRSOH¶VWDVNVDUHDXJPHQWHGZLWKPDFKLQH

DVVLVWDQFHWKLVGRFXPHQWIRUHFDVWVWKDW³DUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHPD\RQHGD\PDNHFRPEDW

GHFLVLRQV´

,QWKH'1'&$)'DWD6WUDWHJ\ZDVUHOHDVHG,WDOVRDFNQRZOHGJHGWKHFKDOOHQJHV

LQKHUHQWLQGHDOLQJZLWKGDWDDQGGDWDGULYHQDSSURDFKHVFRQFOXGLQJWKDWZLWKRXWEHLQJDEOHWR

IXOO\H[SORLWRXUGDWD³WKH'HIHQFH7HDPZLOOIDOOEHKLQGDQGULVNVIDFLQJEHWWHULQIRUPHGPRUH

DJLOHDGYHUVDULHVLQFRQIOLFWVLWXDWLRQV´3RVVLEOHDUHDVZKHUHWKLVFRXOGEHDSSOLFDEOHLQFOXGH

³H[SORULQJKRZWRXVHGDWDGULYHQWHFKQRORJLHVVXFKDVDUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFH«WRLPSURYHWKH

HIILFLHQF\DQGHIIHFWLYHQHVVRI'HIHQFHSURJUDPV´7KHGRFXPHQWDFNQRZOHGJHVWKDW³IXWXUH

PLOLWDU\SODWIRUPVZLOOKDYHWUHPHQGRXVGDWDUHTXLUHPHQWVWRHQDEOHWKHIXOOFDSDELOLW\RIWKH

SODWIRUP¶VRIIHQVLYHDQGGHIHQVLYHZHDSRQV\VWHPV´DQGUHIHUVWRHQKDQFHGLQWHOOLJHQFHWRDOORZ



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

&DQDGD&KLHIRI)RUFH'HYHORSPHQW³7KH)XWXUH6HFXULW\(QYLURQPHQW´

,ELG

&DQDGD'1'&$)'DWD6WUDWHJ\L

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


SODWIRUPVWRGHWHFWLGHQWLI\HYDGHDQGHQJDJHWKHHQHP\,QLWLDWLYHVUHODWLQJWRFROOHFWLRQ

VWRUDJHDQGVKDULQJRIGDWDRQIRUHLJQWKUHDWV\VWHPVDQGRXURZQSODWIRUPVWKRVHRIIULHQGO\

FRXQWULHVRUQRQFRPEDWDQWVDUHDOVRGLVFXVVHG³LQRUGHUWRRSWLPL]HWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIRXU

IXWXUHV\VWHPV´

6WURQJ6HFXUH(QJDJHG 66( UHOHDVHGLQFKDUDFWHUL]HVWKHIXWXUHRIGHIHQFHDV

³H[SHFWHGWREHYDVWO\GLIIHUHQWWKDQWRGD\ZLWKDJUHDWHUHPSKDVLVRQLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV

GDWDDQDO\WLFVGHHSOHDUQLQJDXWRQRPRXVV\VWHPVDGYDQFHPHQWVLQWKHHOHFWURPDJQHWLFDQG

F\EHUGRPDLQV´,WDOVRUHIHUVWR³WUDQVIRUPDWLYHWHFKQRORJLHV´VXFKDVTXDQWXPFRPSXWLQJ

ZKLFKZLOOEULHIO\EHWRXFKHGRQLQ&KDSWHU,QWKHDUHDRI$6:SODWIRUPV66(RXWOLQHVWKH

UHFDSLWDOL]DWLRQRIWKHQDYDOIOHHWWKURXJKWKHDFTXLVLWLRQRI&DQDGLDQ6XUIDFH&RPEDWDQWV

PRGHUQL]DWLRQRIWKHIRXU9LFWRULDFODVVVXEPDULQHVDQGWKHUHSODFHPHQWRIWKH&3$XURUD

:KLOH66(ORRNVWR³DFTXLUHQHZRUHQKDQFHGQDYDOLQWHOOLJHQFHVXUYHLOODQFHDQG

UHFRQQDLVVDQFHV\VWHPV«DQGDGGLWLRQDOV\VWHPVIRUFXUUHQWDQGIXWXUHSODWIRUPVDOORZLQJIRU

PRUHHIIHFWLYHRIIHQVLYHDQGGHIHQVLYHQDYDOFDSDELOLWLHV´WKHUHLVQRVSHFLILFDOORFDWLRQLQWKH

GHIHQVHSROLF\IRUDSSO\LQJ$,RU0/WR$6:$EURDGLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRILWVGLVFXVVLRQRID

QHWZRUNFHQWULFDSSURDFKWR-RLQW,QWHOOLJHQFH6XUYHLOODQFHDQG5HFRQQDLVVDQFHFRQVLVWLQJRI

³LQWHUFRQQHFWHGLQWHOOLJHQFHFROOHFWLRQSODWIRUPV±LQFOXGLQJDLUFUDIWUHPRWHO\SLORWHGV\VWHPV

ODQGYHKLFOHVVKLSVVXEPDULQHVSHRSOHDQGVDWHOOLWHV´DQGWKHFDSWXUHRILQIRUPDWLRQDQG

H[FKDQJHRIGDWDLQQHDUUHDOWLPHFRXOGEHDSSOLFDEOHWR$6:$GGLWLRQDOO\66(RXWOLQHVWKH

,QQRYDWLRQIRU'HIHQFH([FHOOHQFHDQG6HFXULW\ ,'(D6 SURJUDPPHZKLFKVHHNVWR³EULQJ



&DQDGD'1'&$)'DWD6WUDWHJ\&

,ELG

&DQDGD6WURQJ6HFXUH(QJDJHG&DQDGD¶V'HIHQVH3ROLF\

,ELG

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WRJHWKHUDFDGHPLFVLQGXVWU\DQGRWKHUSDUWQHUVWRIRUPFROODERUDWLYHLQQRYDWLRQQHWZRUNV´DQG

HPSKDVL]HVWKDW³DUHDVIRUDGYDQFHGUHVHDUFKDQGGHYHORSPHQWLQFOXGHVXUYHLOODQFH´DQGGDWD

DQDO\WLFV,QVKRUWWKHVHSROLFLHVDUHFHUWDLQO\IRUZDUGORRNLQJDQGOD\WKHIRXQGDWLRQIRUWKH

DGRSWLRQRI0/$,RQ$6:SODWIRUPV

7KHPDQGDWHOHWWHUIURPWKH3ULPH0LQLVWHUWRWKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHDIWHUWKH

ODVWHOHFWLRQHPSKDVL]HGWKHLPSRUWDQFHHQVXULQJWKH&$)³KDYHWKHFDSDELOLWLHVDQGHTXLSPHQW

UHTXLUHGWRXSKROGWKHLUUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVWKURXJKFRQWLQXHGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI66(LQFOXGLQJ

QHZSURFXUHPHQWVDQGSODQQHGIXQGLQJLQFUHDVHV´7KLVOHWWHUUHLWHUDWHGWKHLQWHQWWRUHQHZWKH

5R\DO&DQDGLDQ1DY\ 5&1 )OHHW³HQVXULQJ&DQDGD¶V1DY\KDVWKHPRGHUQVKLSVWKDWLW

QHHGV´DQGZRUNLQJ³WRGHYHORSEHWWHUVXUYHLOODQFHLQWKH1RUWKDQGLQWKHPDULWLPHDQGDLU

DSSURDFKHVWR&DQDGDWRVWUHQJWKHQFRQWLQHQWDOGHIHQFHSURWHFW&DQDGD¶VULJKWVDQGVRYHUHLJQW\

DQGGHPRQVWUDWHLQWHUQDWLRQDOOHDGHUVKLSZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHQDYLJDWLRQRI$UFWLFZDWHUV´

$VDQDJJUHJDWHWKHVHGRFXPHQWVRXWOLQHDYLVLRQRIWKH&$)RSHUDWLQJLQDKLJKWHFK

IXWXUHZKHUH³'1'&$)H[SORUHVDQGLPSOHPHQWVGDWDGULYHQDSSURDFKHVWRH[SDQGDQG

HQKDQFHRSHUDWLRQDOFDSDELOLWLHV´7KHFRQWHQWLRQRIWKLVSDSHULVWKDWPXFKPRUHDGYDQFHG

WDVNVVXFKDVWKRVHFDUULHGRXWE\VHQVRURSHUDWRUVRQ$6:SODWIRUPVVKRXOGDOVREHFRQVLGHUHG

IRUDSSOLFDWLRQRI$,0/LQRUGHUWRUHPDLQFRPSHWLWLYHZLWKRXUDGYHUVDULHVLQWKHFRPLQJ

GHFDGHV7KH'1'&$)'DWD6WUDWHJ\VWDWHVWKDW³WKH*&KDVUHOHDVHGRUSODQVWRUHOHDVHQHZ

DQGXSGDWHGSROLFLHVDQGGLUHFWLYHVDURXQG´DUHDVLQFOXGLQJ³DXWRPDWHGGHFLVLRQDSSURDFKHV



&DQDGD6WURQJ6HFXUH(QJDJHG&DQDGD¶V'HIHQVH3ROLF\

2IILFHRIWKH3ULPH0LQLVWHURI&DQDGD0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH0DQGDWH/HWWHU'HFHPEHU
KWWSVSPJFFDHQPDQGDWHOHWWHUVPLQLVWHUQDWLRQDOGHIHQFHPDQGDWHOHWWHU

,ELG

&DQDGD'1'&$)'DWD6WUDWHJ\

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


VXFKDVDUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFH´,QWKHQH[WFKDSWHUUDWLRQDOHIRUWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ$,0/LQ

$6:DQGWKHVSHFLILFVKRUWIDOOVLWZRXOGDGGUHVVZLOOEHH[SDQGHGXSRQ



,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 3: PROBLEM FRAMING

$VSUHYLRXVO\PHQWLRQHG$6:VHQVRURSHUDWRUVNLOOVDUHSHULVKDEOHDQGUHTXLUHUHJXODU

UHIUHVKLQJWKURXJKWUDLQLQJH[HUFLVHVRURSHUDWLRQV$IWHUQHDUO\WZHQW\\HDUVRIUHGXFHG

VXEPDULQHDFWLYLW\DOOLHG$6:IRUFHVDUHJURZLQJWKHLUH[SHULHQFHOHYHOVEDFNDQGUHFRJQL]H

WKDWUHEXLOGLQJWKHSURILFLHQF\RIDFRXVWLFRSHUDWRUVDQG$6:FUHZVFRXOGWDNHDZKROH

JHQHUDWLRQ7KLVFKDSWHURXWOLQHVZKR&DQDGD¶VDFRXVWLFVHQVRURSHUDWRUVDUHWKHWDVNVWKH\

FDUU\RXWDQGVRPHRIWKHFKDOOHQJHVWKH\IDFHWKDWFRXOGEHRIIVHWE\WKHDGRSWLRQRI0/

,Q&DQDGDSDVVLYHDQGDFWLYHDFRXVWLFVHQVRUVDUHRSHUDWHGE\621$52SHUDWRUV

621$52SV LQWKH1DY\DQGE\$LUERUQH(OHFWURQLF6HQVRU2SHUDWRUV $(62SV LQWKH$LU

)RUFH2WKHUVHQVRUVXVHGE\WKH1DY\LQ$6:DUHRSHUDWHGE\1DYDO(OHFWURQLF6HQVRU

2SHUDWRUV 1(62SV ZKR³RSHUDWHUDGDUDQGUDGLRGHWHFWLRQGHYLFHVUDGDUMDPPLQJV\VWHPV

DQGGHFR\V´DQG1DYDO&RPEDW,QIRUPDWLRQ2SHUDWRUV 1&,2SV ZKR³DUHUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKH

RSHUDWLRQRIDOOVKLSERDUGVXUYHLOODQFHUDGDUVDQGDVVRFLDWHGHTXLSPHQWRIWKHVKLSERDUG

LQWHOOLJHQFHVXUYHLOODQFHDQGUHFRJQL]DQFHV\VWHPV´,QWKH5&$)$(62SVDOVRRSHUDWH

VXLWHVRIQRQDFRXVWLFVHQVRUVRQWKH&+&\FORQH0DULWLPH+HOLFRSWHUDQGWKH&3

$XURUD/RQJ5DQJH3DWURODLUFUDIWLQFOXGLQJ5$'$5HOHFWURRSWLFLQIUDUHG (2,5 V\VWHPV

PDJQHWLFDQRPDO\GHWHFWLRQ 0$' DQGHOHFWURQLFZDUIDUHHTXLSPHQW´

:KLOHVLJQLILFDQWWRWKHFRQGXFWRI$6:RQWKHLUSODWIRUPVDQGDOWKRXJK1(62SV1&,

2SVDQGQRQDFRXVWLF$(62SV¶VHQVRUVFRXOGHTXDOO\EHVXEMHFWWRDXJPHQWDWLRQRU



:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´

&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH³1DYDO(OHFWURQLF6HQVRU2SHUDWRU´
KWWSVIRUFHVFDHQFDUHHUQDYDOHOHFWURQLFVHQVRURSHUDWRU&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH³1DYDO
&RPEDW,QIRUPDWLRQ2SHUDWRU´KWWSVIRUFHVFDHQFDUHHUQDYDOFRPEDWLQIRUPDWLRQRSHUDWRU

&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHKWWSVIRUFHVFDHQFDUHHUDLUERUQHHOHFWURQLFVHQVRURSHUDWRU

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


UHSODFHPHQWE\0/V\VWHPVWKLVSDSHUIRFXVHVRQWKHRSHUDWLRQRIDFRXVWLFVHQVRUVE\0/

V\VWHPVDVDVWDUWLQJSRLQWIRUWKHµFUHDWLYHGHVWUXFWLRQ¶RI$6:DOOXGHGWRHDUOLHU

7KHSULPDU\UROHRI621$52SVLVWR³FRPSLOHDQGDQDO\]HDFRXVWLFLQWHOOLJHQFH

LQIRUPDWLRQ´7KH\OLVWHQWRVRXQGVLQWKHRFHDQDQGXVHSURFHVVLQJV\VWHPVWR³LQWHUSUHWZKDW

WKH\KHDUWRGHWHUPLQHZKDWLVRFFXS\LQJWKHVXUURXQGLQJZDWHUV´SULPDULO\ZLWKWKHSXUSRVHRI

ILQGLQJHQHP\VXEPDULQHV 621$52SHUDWRUV¶WDVNVDOPRVWDOORIZKLFKZRXOGQHHGWREH

FDUULHGRXWE\DQ0/V\VWHPLQFOXGH

x ³HYDOXDWLQJDQGLGHQWLI\LQJVLJQLILFDQWIHDWXUHVIURPRFHDQRJUDSKLFGDWD
x SHUIRUPLQJIXQFWLRQFKHFNVRQHTXLSPHQWXVLQJEXLOWLQDQGLQWHJUDWHGWHVWHTXLSPHQW
DQGEDVLFIDXOWGLDJQRVWLFSURFHGXUHV
x 2SHUDWLQJDOODFWLYHDQGSDVVLYH621$5VEDWK\WKHUPRJUDSKHTXLSPHQWDQGVRQREXR\V
x DQDO\]LQJ621$5DQGLQWHOOLJHQFHGDWDLQWHUSUHWLQJWKHWDFWLFDOSLFWXUHDQGLPSOLFDWLRQV
DQGDVVLVWLQJLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFRPPDQGGHFLVLRQV
x SURYLGLQJRFHDQRJUDSKLFDQGDFRXVWLFGDWDWRSRVWPLVVLRQDQDO\VLVIDFLOLWLHVDQG
x PDLQWDLQLQJZDWFKNHHSLQJUHFRUGVJHRJUDSKLFDORSHUDWLRQDODQGWDFWLFDOSORWV´

 7KH621$52SPHGLFDOVWDQGDUGVVSHFLI\WKHQHHGWR³FRQFHQWUDWHRQH[WUHPHO\ILQH

YLVXDOO\UHSUHVHQWHGGDWDIRUXSWRKRXUVLQEULJKWO\OLWZLQGRZOHVVDUHDV´DVZHOODVSK\VLFDO

VHDPDQVKLSWDVNVQRWUHODWHGWRWKHLUVHQVRUGXWLHVVXFKDVVWDQGLQJIRUH[WHQGHGSHULRGV

FDUU\LQJORDGVDQGILUHILJKWLQJGXWLHVZKLFKZLOOEHDVVXPHGWRQRWDSSO\WRDQ0/V\VWHP

/LNHZLVH$(62SVFDUU\RXWSK\VLFDOWDVNVVXFKDVLQVSHFWLRQVRIDLUFUDIWVSDFHVDQGRUGQDQFH

GXWLHVOLNHORDGLQJVRQREXR\VRQWRDLUFUDIWZKLFKZRXOGQRWEHH[SHFWHGRIDQ0/WUDLQHG

V\VWHP%RWKRFFXSDWLRQVSHUIRUPGXWLHV³H[SRVHGWRDOOZHDWKHUDQGFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQV´DQG



&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHKWWSVIRUFHVFDHQFDUHHU621$5RSHUDWRU

-HQQ-DFNVRQ³-XQLRU621$52SHUDWRUV/HDUQ+RZWR+HDUDQG7UDFND6XEPDULQH´1DY\
0DULQHIRUFHVJFFDKWWSZZZQDY\PDULQHIRUFHVJFFDHQQHZVRSHUDWLRQVQHZVYLHZSDJH"GRF MXQLRU
621$5RSHUDWRUVOHDUQKRZWRKHDUDQGWUDFNDVXEPDULQH)N]IWIS

&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHKWWSVIRUFHVFDHQFDUHHU621$5RSHUDWRU

&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH³7DVN6WDWHPHQWIRU0LOLWDU\2FFXSDWLRQDO6WUXFWXUH,GHQWLILFDWLRQ
6RQRU2SHUDWRU´KWWSVZZZFDQDGDFDHQGHSDUWPHQWQDWLRQDOGHIHQFHFRUSRUDWHSROLFLHV
VWDQGDUGVPHGLFDOVWDQGDUGVPLOLWDU\RFFXSDWLRQVPLOLWDU\RFFXSDWLRQDOVWUXFWXUHLGWDVNVWDWHPHQWVQRQ
FRPPLVVLRQHGPHPEHUVPRVLG621$5RSKWPO

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


H[SRVHGWRIXPHVFKHPLFDOVUDGLRIUHTXHQF\UDGLDWLRQDQGKLJKQRLVHOHYHOV0RWLRQRIWKH

SODWIRUPDPSOLILHGE\KHDY\VHDVWDWHRUSRRUZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVDQGIDWLJXHIURPZRUNLQJIURP

DFRPSXWHUVFUHHQLQDGDUNURRPDWDQ\WLPHRIGD\IXUWKHUGHJUDGHSK\VLRORJLFDOOLPLWVRQKRZ

PDQ\VHQVRUVDQRSHUDWRUFDQF\FOHWKURXJKWRLGHQWLI\³VKRUWGXUDWLRQFRQWDFWRQDPRGHUQTXLHW

VXEPDULQH´$V3HUNLQVSRLQWVRXWPDQ\RSHUDWRUVXVHDFRUUHFWLRQIDFWRUFDOOHG'LUHFWLYLW\

,QGH[ZKLFKDFFRXQWVIRUWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHDFRXVWLFV\VWHPEXWDOVRIDFWRUVLQ³RQVWDWLRQ

SHUIRUPDQFHUHGXFWLRQGXHWRIDWLJXHDQGRIIVHWDQ\ODFNRIRSHUDWRUSURILFLHQF\RU$6:

FXUUHQF\´0/V\VWHPVDUHQRWOLPLWHGE\WKHVHSK\VLRORJLFDOIDFWRUVDQGZRXOGKDYHDORZHU

SUREDELOLW\RIPLVVLQJDVXEPDULQHFRQWDFWGXHWRWKHVHIDFWRUVWKDWFDQGHJUDGHKXPDQ

RSHUDWRUV¶SHUIRUPDQFH

$(62SV³HPSOR\OHDGLQJHGJHWHFKQRORJLHVWRGHWHFWDQGWUDFNVXEPDULQHV´DPRQJ

VHYHUDOUROHV$VVXFKWKHWUDLQLQJIRUWKHVHKLJKO\VNLOOHGVSHFLDOLVWVWDNHVDVLJQLILFDQW

DPRXQWRIWLPH$IWHUZHHNVRI%DVLF7UDLQLQJ$(62SVDWWHQGVL[PRQWKVRIEDVLF

RFFXSDWLRQDODQGIO\LQJWUDLQLQJLQ:LQQLSHJ0%:KHWKHUVHOHFWHGIRU&3RUWKH&+

&\FORQHWKH\WKHQXQGHUJRDPRQWKRSHUDWLRQDOIOLJKWWUDLQLQJFRXUVH&3$62V

XQGHUJRDIXUWKHUPRQWKXSJUDGHSURFHVVRQVTXDGURQXSRQFRPSOHWLRQRIZKLFKWKH\

EHFRPHLQGHSHQGHQWO\HPSOR\DEOHRQDFUHZDQGEHFRPHUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWUDLQLQJWKHQH[W

JHQHUDWLRQRI$62V1RWDFFRXQWLQJIRUJDSVRUEUHDNVEHWZHHQWUDLQLQJLWFXUUHQWO\WDNHV

DSSUR[LPDWHO\PRQWKVRIWUDLQLQJWRSURGXFHDWRSFDWHJRU\DFRXVWLFVHQVRU$(62S5HFHQW

VWDWLVWLFVLQGLFDWHWKDWRIWRWDOSRVLWLRQVRQO\DSRUWLRQRIZKLFKFDUU\RXWDFRXVWLFGXWLHVWKH



,ELG

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

,ELG

&RXULHU1HZVDQG3XEOLVKLQJ:LQJ&ROG/DNH³%HFRPHDQ$LUERUQH(OHFWURQLF6HQVRU2SHUDWRU´$SULO
KWWSFRXULHUQHZVFDEHFRPHDQDLUERUQHHOHFWURQLFVHQVRURSHUDWRU

&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHKWWSVIRUFHVFDHQFDUHHUDLUERUQHHOHFWURQLFVHQVRURSHUDWRU

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


$(62SRFFXSDWLRQKDVD7UDLQHG(IIHFWLYH6WUHQJWK 7(6 RIRQO\RILWVHVWDEOLVKHG

SRVLWLRQV

$IWHU%DVLF7UDLQLQJ5&1621$52SVDWWHQGDILYHZHHNEDVLFQDYDORSHUDWLRQVFRXUVH

LQHLWKHU+DOLID[16RU(VTXLPDOW%&IROORZHGE\DZHHNFRXUVHLQ(VTXLPDOWWROHDUQWKH

EDVLFVRIWKH621$52SRFFXSDWLRQ2QFHWKH\KDYHFRPSOHWHGWKLVFRXUVHWKH\FDQEHJLQWR

EHHPSOR\HGXQGHUVXSHUYLVLRQRQVXUIDFHVKLSVVXEPDULQHVRU,QWHJUDWHG8QGHUVHD

6XUYHLOODQFHZLWKDGGLWLRQDODFRXVWLFDQGVXSHUYLVRU\FRXUVHVDUHRIIHUHGDVWKH\SURJUHVV

WKURXJKDVFHQGLQJUDQNV2YHUDOORI621$52SSRVLWLRQVRUKDYHDFKLHYHG

7(6ZLWKVKRUWDJHVPRVWQRWDEOHDWWKHPRVWMXQLRUUDQNVZKLFKZRXOGW\SLFDOO\EHWKHV\VWHP

RSHUDWRUV621$52SVDUHQRWHGDV³LQGHPDQG´DQGDVRI0D\ZHUHEHLQJRIIHUHG

VLJQLQJERQXVHVLQRUGHUWRERRVWWKHLUUHFUXLWPHQW$GGLWLRQDOO\WKHFRPSHWLWLRQIRUWDOHQWHG

SHRSOHZLWKVNLOOVHWVWRRSHUDWHDGYDQFHGV\VWHPVLVVRKLJKWKDWVRPHQDWLRQVDUHWDLORULQJWKHLU

VKLSGHVLJQVWRPDNH1DY\VHUYLFHDSSHDOLQJWRWKH³W\SHRISHRSOH´WKH\ZDQWWRUHFUXLW

/LNHZLVH$(62SVFDQEHHPSOR\HGRQDQDLUSODWIRUPRUDWSRVWPLVVLRQDFRXVWLF

SURFHVVLQJIDFLOLWLHVUHIHUUHGWRLQVRPHSXEOLFDWLRQVDVWKH³*URXQG6HJPHQW´DQGZKLFK

³LQFOXGHVIL[HGDQGGHSOR\DEOHPLVVLRQVXSSRUWFHQWUHVDQG3URFHVVLQJ([SORLWDWLRQDQG

'LVVHPLQDWLRQ 3(' HQWLWLHV´7KH*URXQG6HJPHQWLVOLNHRSHUDWLRQVRQWKHSODWIRUPV

WKHPVHOYHVUHOLDQWRQODUJHDPRXQWVRIGDWDDQGLQUHVSHFWWR$6:H[LVWVLQRUGHUWRIDFLOLWDWH



'0LO&&DUHHU0DQDJHU%ULHILQJ$FFHVVHG)HE$OOILJXUHVLQWKLVSDSHUDUHURXQGHGWR
WKHQHDUHVWSHUFHQWDJHIRUHDVHRIUHDGLQJ

&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH³621$52SHUDWRU´KWWSVIRUFHVFDHQFDUHHU621$5RSHUDWRU

0&6(VWDEOLVKPHQWGDWDDVRI'HF

,ELG

&KULVWRSKHU:RRG\³7KHPLOLWDU\
V
ZDUIRUWDOHQW
LVDIIHFWLQJZKDWWKH1DY\
VIXWXUHVKLSVZLOOORRNOLNH´
%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU)HEUXDU\KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPPLOLWDU\UHFUXLWLQJHIIRUWVDIIHFWLQJIXWXUH
QDY\VKLSGHVLJQV

1$720$625

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WKHFROOHFWLRQDQDO\VLVDQGGLVVHPLQDWLRQRIGDWDLQRUGHUWRHQDEOH$6:RSHUDWRUVRQYDULRXV

SODWIRUPVWRVXFFHVVIXOO\FDUU\RXWWKHLUPLVVLRQV

,QLWLDWLYHVWRHQKDQFH$6:RSHUDWLRQVLQWKHIXWXUHDQGRSWLPL]HVHQVRUSHUIRUPDQFHDUH

DOOUHOLDQWRQPDQDJLQJHYHULQFUHDVLQJDPRXQWVRIGDWDPRUHHIIHFWLYHO\)RUH[DPSOHDIXWXUH

GHYHORSPHQWLQ$6:³ZLOOEHWKHDELOLW\RID0DULWLPH0XOWL0LVVLRQ$LUFUDIW 0$ WRFR

RSHUDWHZLWKRWKHU621$5HTXLSSHGSODWIRUPVLQDQHWZRUNHQDEOHGPXOWLSODWIRUPV\VWHP

XVLQJHDFKRWKHU¶V621$5WUDQVPLVVLRQVWRLPSURYHWKHRYHUDOOHQVRQLILFDWLRQRIDWKUHDW

DUHD´7KLVZRXOGLQYROYHDPDVVLYHDPRXQWRIGDWDH[FKDQJHDQGWRPDQDJHWKHFRPSOH[LW\

DQGDPRXQWRIGDWDLQKHUHQWLQWKHVHV\VWHPVWKH\DUHEHLQJGHVLJQHGZLWKWRROVWRUHGXFH

RSHUDWRUZRUNORDGVXFKDV³QHZDXWRPDWHGGHWHFWLRQPHWKRGVWRLPSURYHVHDUFKWHFKQLTXHVDQG

VLWXDWLRQDZDUHQHVV´,QFRUSRUDWLRQRIVDWHOOLWHVXQLQKDELWHGDHULDOYHKLFOHV 8$9V 

XQLQKDELWHGXQGHUZDWHUYHKLFOHV 889V DQGRWKHUVHQVRUV\VWHPVLQWRWKHVHQHWZRUNVRI$6:

DVVHWVZLOOFRQWULEXWHWRPDULWLPHVLWXDWLRQDODZDUHQHVVDQGZLOOUHVXOWLQ$6:GDWDJURZLQJDW

DQH[WUHPHUDWHDOWKRXJKSHUKDSVSDOLQJLQFRPSDULVRQWRWKHLQIRUPDWLRQJHQHUDWHGRQWKH

LQWHUQHWDQGWKURXJKVPDUWGHYLFHV

7KHQRQPLOLWDU\VHFWRUKDVORQJUHFRJQL]HGWKHRYHUZKHOPLQJDPRXQWVRIGDWDEHLQJ

SURGXFHGDQGFROOHFWHG:HDUHQRZWDONLQJLQWHUPVRISURGXFLQJPXOWLSOH]HWWDE\WHV HDFKRI

ZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVRQHWULOOLRQJLJDE\WHV HYHU\\HDU0XFKRIWKLVRULJLQDWHVIURPZKDWKDV

EHHQFDOOHG³DVHDRIVHQVRUV´LQZKLFK³GHYLFHVHYHU\GD\WKLQJVDQGSDUWLFXODUO\KXPDQVFDQ

EHFRPHDVHQVRUJDWKHULQJDQGWUDQVPLWWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHUHDOZRUOG´7KH



,ELG$

,ELG

(ULF7RSRO7KH&UHDWLYH'HVWUXFWLRQRI0HGLFLQHL[

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


VXEVHTXHQW³%LJ'DWD´FRQVLVWVRI³H[WUHPHO\ODUJHGDWDVHWVWKDWPD\EHDQDO\VHG

FRPSXWDWLRQDOO\WRUHYHDOSDWWHUQVWUHQGVDQGDVVRFLDWLRQV´

7KH³VHDRIGDWD´IURPPLOLWDU\VHQVRUVQHHGVWREHSURFHVVHGEXWDVZLWK%LJ'DWDLQ

RWKHUILHOGVFDQQRWDOOEHSURFHVVHGE\KXPDQV3HWHU/D\WRQLQGLVFXVVLQJILIWKJHQHUDWLRQ

ILJKWHUDLUFUDIWEXWLQWKHPHVWKDWFDQEHDSSOLHGWRDQ\QXPEHURIIXWXUHKLJKO\QHWZRUNHG

SODWIRUPVILWWHGZLWKQXPHURXVVHQVRUVGHVFULEHVZDUIDUHWKDWLV³GDWDKXQJU\´7KLVKXQJHU

KHVD\VDOVRDSSOLHVWRFRPPDQGFHQWUHVZKLFKXVHWKHGDWDLQWKHSODQQLQJDQGH[HFXWLRQRI

PLVVLRQV:LWKKXPDQVXQDEOHWR³UHOLDEO\DQGTXLFNO\SURFHVVWKHDPRXQWRIGDWDFROOHFWHGE\

WKHIOHHWDQGLWVUHVSHFWLYHHQYLURQPHQW¶VPDQ\VHQVRUV´WKHUHFDQEHUHVXOWLQJRSHUDWLRQDO

FRQVWUDLQWVZKLFKQHHGWREHUHVROYHG

)XWXUH$6:SODWIRUPV¶V\VWHPVDUHH[SHFWHGWRHYROYHZLWKLQWKHQH[WGHFDGHWREHFRPH

PRUHFDSDEOHXOWLPDWHO\UHVXOWLQJLQVPDOOHUFUHZV³FRYHULQJPXFKODUJHUDUHDVPRUHTXLFNO\

DQGPRUHFKHDSO\´7KLVXOWLPDWHO\EHJVWKHTXHVWLRQRIZKHWKHUDKXPDQRSHUDWRUOLPLWHGE\

³PHWDEROLFDQGFKHPLFDOWKUHVKROGVZKLFKOLPLWWKHSURFHVVLQJSRZHURIWKHZHWFRPSXWHUV

LQVLGHRXUKHDGV´FDQSRVVLEO\NHHSXSZLWKWKHQXPEHURIFRQFXUUHQWWDVNVDQGWKH

RYHUZKHOPLQJDPRXQWRILQIRUPDWLRQFRPLQJLQWRQH[WJHQHUDWLRQSODWIRUPV

,QPDQ\RWKHUILHOGVDWWHPSWLQJWROHYHUDJH0/DQG$,WRROVWRKDUQHVVWKHYDOXHRI%LJ

'DWD³HQJLQHHUVUHDOL]HGWKDWUDWKHUWKDQWHDFKLQJFRPSXWHUVDQGPDFKLQHVKRZWRGR

HYHU\WKLQJLWZRXOGEHIDUPRUHHIILFLHQWWRFRGHWKHPWRWKLQNOLNHKXPDQEHLQJV´



3HWHU/D\WRQ³:RUNLQJ3DSHU)LIWK*HQHUDWLRQ$LU:DUIDUH´5R\DO$XVWUDOLDQ$LU)RUFH$LU3RZHU
'HYHORSPHQW&HQWUH

,ELG

,ELG

($UWXVL)&KDLOODQ³$XWRPDWLF5HFRJQLWLRQRI8QGHUZDWHU$FRXVWLF6LJQDWXUHIRU1DYDO$SSOLFDWLRQV´
VW0DULWLPH6LWXDWLRQDO$ZDUHQHVV:RUNVKRS 06$: 

,ELG$

$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

%HUQDUG0DUU³:KDWLVWKH'LIIHUHQFH%HWZHHQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHDQG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ"´

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


*LYHQWKHDPRXQWRIGDWDLQKHUHQWLQDFRXVWLFVRXQGVLJQDWXUHVLQWKHRFHDQFROOHFWHG

IURPPDQ\SODWIRUPVDQGWKHVKRUWDJHVRI621$52SVDQG$(62SVZKRWDNHDUHODWLYHO\ORQJ

WLPHWRWUDLQWKHWDVNVRIILOWHULQJDOORIWKHGDWDWXUQLQJLWLQWRNQRZOHGJHDQGLQWHOOLJHQFHDQG

IHHGLQJLWEDFNWRIURQWOLQHRSHUDWRUVDUHSHUIHFWO\VXLWHGWRWKHXVHRIDXJPHQWDWLRQDXWRPDWLRQ

DQGXOWLPDWHO\0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJDQG$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH

7KHQH[WFKDSWHUZLOORXWOLQHKRZ0/KDVEHHQLPSOHPHQWHGDFURVVPDQ\LQLWLDWLYHVWR

OHYHUDJHWKHYDVWDPRXQWVRIGDWDEHLQJJHQHUDWHGDQGZLOOH[SORUHKRZWKRVHWHFKQLTXHVFRXOG

EHDSSOLHGWRWKHWDVNVRIDFRXVWLFVHQVRURSHUDWRUVWKURXJKWKHSKDVHVRI$6:


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 4: RELATION TO ML TECHNIQUES IN OTHER FIELDS

3HUKDSVILWWLQJO\IRUWKHWRSLFRI$6:GDWDLVRIWHQUHIHUUHGWRLQDVERGLHVRIZDWHUZLWK

WHUPVVXFKDV³GDWDODNHV´³GDWDRFHDQV´³LQIRUPDWLRQWLGDOZDYHV´DQG³WVXQDPLRIGDWD´

GHQRWLQJQRWRQO\DYDVWQHVVEXWDQHDVHRIIORZLQJIURPRQHORFDWLRQWRDQRWKHU&RXQWOHVV

LQGXVWULHVDQGILHOGVRIVWXG\KDYHOHYHUDJHG$,DQG0/WRVWUHDPOLQHWKHLURSHUDWLRQVPDUNHW

WKHLUSURGXFWVDQGGHDOZLWKWKHYDVWYROXPHVRIGDWDEHLQJJHQHUDWHGE\HYHUJURZLQJQHWZRUNV

RIVHQVRUV)URPWR\VWKDWFDQFDUU\RQDFRQYHUVDWLRQZLWKDFKLOGWRUHFRJQL]LQJLPDJHV

FDSWXUHGE\DFDPHUDWRVHOIGULYLQJFDUVWKHVHWHFKQRORJLHVSURFHVVYDVWYROXPHVRIGDWDWR

FUHDWHPRGHOVZKLFKµOHDUQ¶E\LGHQWLI\LQJKLGGHQSDWWHUQVLQWKLVGDWDDQGIRUPLQJFRUUHODWLRQV

EHWZHHQWKHPLQRUGHUWRPDNHKLJKO\DFFXUDWHSUHGLFWLRQV

$VPHQWLRQHGLQWKHLQWURGXFWLRQ$6:LVRIWHQFRPSDUHGWRDJDPHEHWZHHQDVWHDOWK\

VXEPDULQHDQGWKRVHWU\LQJWRILQGDQGWUDFNWKHP6RPHRIWKHEHWWHUNQRZQDSSOLFDWLRQVRI$,

DQG0/FRPHIURPWKHLUDSSOLFDWLRQWRJDPHVDQGKROGYDOXDEOHOHVVRQVWREHOHDUQHGIRU$6:

DVWKH\ERWKDGKHUHWRFHUWDLQUXOHVSLWRQHVLGHDJDLQVWWKHRWKHUDQGXOWLPDWHO\DLPWRKDYHD

ZLQQHU

Games

)URPWKHYLFWRU\RIDQ$,DJDLQVWWKHWKHQZRUOGFKDPSLRQLQFKHFNHUVWR¶V

GHIHDWRIWKHZRUOGFKHVVFKDPSLRQE\,%0¶V'HHS%OXHVXSHUFRPSXWHUWR,%0¶V:DWVRQ

GHIHDWLQJ-HRSDUG\¶VORQJHVWUHLJQLQJFKDPSLRQ.HQ-HQQLQJV ZKRKDGZRQFRQVHFXWLYH



'PLWUL\6WHSDQHQNR³'DWD:DUHKRXVHYV'DWD/DNH:KLFKLV5LJKWIRU<RXU(QWHUSULVH$SS'HYHORSPHQW
(IIRUW"´7KH0HGLXPFRP)HEUXDU\KWWSVPHGLXPFRP#GLVWLOOHU\WHFKGDWDZDUHKRXVHYVGDWDODNH
ZKLFKLVULJKWIRU\RXUHQWHUSULVHDSSGHYHORSPHQWHIIRUWIDIGFD(ULF7RSRO7KH&UHDWLYH'HVWUXFWLRQRI
0HGLFLQH7KH*XDUGLDQ³7VXQDPLRIGDWDFRXOGFRQVXPHILIWKRIJOREDOHOHFWULFLW\E\´7KH
*XDUGLDQFRP'HFHPEHUKWWSVZZZWKHJXDUGLDQFRPHQYLURQPHQWGHFWVXQDPLRIGDWDFRXOG
FRQVXPHILIWKJOREDOHOHFWULFLW\E\

%HUQDUG0DUU³,QFUHGLEOH([DPSOHV2I$,$QG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ,Q3UDFWLFH´)RUEHV$SULO
KWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVEHUQDUGPDUULQFUHGLEOHH[DPSOHVRIDLDQGPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJLQ
SUDFWLFHDD(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


JDPHVDJDLQVWKXPDQRSSRQHQWV WRWKHGHIHDWRIWKHZRUOG*RFKDPSLRQE\DQ$,V\VWHP

VHYHUDOKLJKSURILOHFDVHVRIWKHGRPLQDQFHRIPDFKLQHVLQWKHUHDOPRIJDPHVKDYHEHHQ

UHFRUGHG,QDOPRVWDOORIWKHVHH[DPSOHVWKHUHDUHLQVWDQFHVRIWKHKXPDQSOD\HUORVLQJ

FRQILGHQFHEHLQJDIIHFWHGE\WKHLUSHUVRQDOLW\SDWLHQFHDQG³RYHUDOOVWDWHRIPLQG´RU

VXFFXPELQJWRVWUHVVZKLOHWKH$,ZDVXQDIIHFWHGE\DQ\RIWKHVHIDFWRUV$VRXWOLQHGLQWKH

SUHYLRXVFKDSWHUKXPDQRSHUDWRUVRQ$6:SODWIRUPVDUHHTXDOO\VXEMHFWWRIDWLJXHPRWLRQ

VLFNQHVVDQGVWUHVVZKLOHPDFKLQHVFDQOHDUQDQGEHHPSOR\HGGD\DQGQLJKWZLWKQR

GHJUDGDWLRQLQSHUIRUPDQFH

2SHQVRXUFHLQIRUPDWLRQVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHUHDOPRI$6:LVDOVRIRFXVLQJRQJDPHV³WKDW

LQFOXGHVRFLDOQHWZRUNLQJSHUIRUPDQFHFROOHFWLRQELJGDWDDQDO\VLVDQG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ´WR

³SURYLGHIRUKLJKYHORFLW\OHDUQLQJ´DQGWHDFKFULWLFDOVNLOOVWRKXPDQVDQGHYHQWXDOO\LQWHJUDWH

GHULYHGLQIRUPDWLRQLQWRDGYDQFHGV\VWHPVVXFKDV³WKH$1644$ 9 6XUIDFH6KLS

8QGHUVHD:DUIDUH&RPEDW6\VWHP´

:LWKHFKRHVRIKRZ*RSURJUDPPHUVLQLWLDOO\WUDLQHGWKHLUV\VWHPXVLQJ³KXPDQVLQWKH

ORRSDQGDQLQLWLDOVHWRI*RJDPHVLQRUGHUWROHDUQKRZWRSOD\´LQWKH86'$53$

UHFHQWO\DVNHGWKRXVDQGVRIDQRQ\PRXVSOD\HUVWR³FRPHXSZLWKZD\VWRWUDFNHOXVLYHVXEV´E\

SOD\LQJDPRGLILHGYHUVLRQRIWKHµ'DQJHURXV:DWHUV¶YLGHRJDPH,QWKHFURZGVRXUFHG

LQVWDQFH³WKHEHVWSOD\HUVEURNHWKHUXOHVDQGLQWKHSURFHVVPD\KDYHGLVFRYHUHGDEHWWHUZD\WR

WUDFNVXEVIURPWKHVXUIDFH´:KDWJRHVXQSXEOLVKHGLQWKHVHRSHQVRXUFHDFFRXQWVLVWKDWWKH



$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

,ELG

6%,5³0XOWLSOD\HU6HULRXV*DPHIRU$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH621$52SHUDWRU7UDLQLQJ´6%,5JRY
DFFHVVHG$SULOKWWSVZZZVELUJRYQRGH

$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

$GDP/3HQHQEHUJ³7KH$QWL6XE*DPH´)DVW&RPSDQ\2FWREHU
KWWSVZZZIDVWFRPSDQ\FRPDQWLVXEJDPH

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


GHVLJQHUVRIWKHVH$6:JDPHLQLWLDWLYHVFROOHFWGDWDRQWKRXVDQGVRIJDPHVFHQDULRVDQGVHULDOV

ZKLFKLVOLNHO\DVXIILFLHQWDPRXQWRIGDWDWRWHDFKDV\VWHPKRZWRSOD\WKHJDPHRI$6:

+RZIDUDGYDQFHGDQ\RIWKHVHLQLWLDWLYHVPLJKWEHLQGHYHORSLQJDV\VWHPWKDWLVSRZHUIXO

HQRXJKWRZLQDW$6:ZLWKHLWKHUVXSHUYLVHGRUXQVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJLVRSHQWRVSHFXODWLRQ

:KDWLVNQRZQLQWKHUHDOPRIJDPHVLVWKDWGHYHORSHUVKDYHEHHQDEOHWRWUDQVLWLRQIURP

SURJUDPPLQJV\VWHPVZLWKVSHFLILFUXOHVDQGIHHGWKHPGDWDFRQVLVWLQJRIWKRXVDQGVRIVHWVRI

JDPHVLQRUGHUWROHDUQKRZWRSOD\WRD³V\VWHPWKDWFRXOGWUDLQLWVHOIWREHFRPHMXVWDV

SRZHUIXOZLWKRXWKDYLQJWRUHO\RQKXPDQV´:LWKRXWKXPDQVKROGLQJWKHV\VWHPVEDFN0/

V\VWHPVZKHQDSSOLHGWRJDPHVKDYHEHHQDEOHWRHYROYH³LQWRERWKDEHWWHUVWXGHQWWKDQWKH

ZRUOG¶VJUHDWHVW*RPDVWHUVDQGDEHWWHUWHDFKHUWKDQLWVKXPDQWUDLQHUV´

7KURXJKIHHGEDFNORRSVRISOD\LQJDJDPHDQGWKHQVHOIRSWLPL]LQJEDVHGRQZKDWLWKDG

OHDUQHGLQWKHJDPH$,V\VWHPVTXLFNO\HYROYHGWRWKHSRLQWRIVXUSDVVLQJKXPDQVLQWHUPVRI

WKLQNLQJ³LQDQHQWLUHO\QHZZD\DQGWRPDNHLWVRZQFKRLFHV´:LWKRXWWKHFRQVWUDLQWVRI

KXPDQNQRZOHGJHWKH=HURSURJUDPIRUH[DPSOH³GHYHORSHGFUHDWLYHVWUDWHJLHVWKDWQRRQH

KDGHYHUVHHQEHIRUHVXJJHVWLQJWKDWPD\EHPDFKLQHVZHUHDOUHDG\WKLQNLQJLQZD\VWKDWDUH

ERWKUHFRJQL]DEOHDQGDOLHQWRXV´

,QUHYLHZLQJVRPHRIWKHH[LVWLQJDSSOLFDWLRQVRI0/DQGVRPHDUHDVRIUHVHDUFKVSHFLILF

WR$6:FRQQHFWLRQVZLOOEHPDGHEHWZHHQZKDWDPDFKLQHFRXOGµOHDUQ¶IURPWKHVHRSHUDWRUV

VXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJ DQGDUHDVZKHUHD0/DOJRULWKPPD\EHDEOHWROHDUQGHHSHUUXOHVDQG

SRVVLEO\RXWSHUIRUPKXPDQRSHUDWRUVVROHO\E\OHDUQLQJIURPWKHGDWD XQVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJ 

7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQZLOOGHVFULEHVRPHRIWKHFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKDURXQGXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVDV



$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

,ELG

,ELG

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


ZHOODVLQLWLDWLYHVRXWVLGHRIPLOLWDU\VHWWLQJVLQRUGHUWRKLJKOLJKWFXUUHQWFDSDELOLWLHVDQGWKH

VWDWXVRIUHVHDUFKLQWKH$6:ILHOG

$VSUHYLRXVO\HVWDEOLVKHGWKH&$)KDVKLJKO\WUDLQHG$6:RSHUDWRUVRQSODWIRUPVDQG

VKRUHEDVHGSURFHVVLQJIDFLOLWLHVZKRNQRZPDQ\RIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQSLHFHVRIDFRXVWLF

LQIRUPDWLRQDQGZKDWWKH\PHDQWRWKHWDFWLFDOSLFWXUH7KLVVHFWLRQZLOOEHRUJDQL]HGDFFRUGLQJ

WRWKHSKDVHVRIDQ$6:PLVVLRQ6HDUFK'HWHFW/RFDOL]H7UDFNDQG$WWDFNDQGZLOODOVR

KLJKOLJKWDVSHFWVRISUHPLVVLRQDQGSRVWPLVVLRQDFWLYLWLHVZKLFKFRXOGLQFRUSRUDWH0/

Search

,QWKHVHDUFKSKDVHVHQVRURSHUDWRUVDUHW\SLFDOO\FXHGWRWKHW\SHRIWDUJHWWKH\DUH

ORRNLQJIRUDQGJLYHQDQRSHUDWLQJDUHDWRFRYHU7KH\DUHJLYHQRUGHULYHOLNHO\VSHHGVDQG

GLUHFWLRQRIWUDYHOIRUWKHWDUJHWRFHDQRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQDQGH[SHFWHGVRXQGVRXUFHVDQG

FRPHXSZLWKDSODQWRVHDUFKWKHLUDVVLJQHGDUHDXVLQJWKHEHVWVHQVRUWRDFKLHYHWKHLUPLVVLRQ

2IWHQPXOWLSOHSODWIRUPVZLOOFRRUGLQDWHVRPHWLPHVLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWKVKRUHEDVHGVHQVRUVWR

FDUU\RXW$6:OHYHUDJLQJWKHVWUHQJWKVRIHDFKSODWIRUP SHUVLVWHQFHRIVXUIDFHVKLSVDQGVKRUH

EDVHGVHQVRUVVSHHGDQGUHDFKRIDLUFUDIWVWHDOWKRIVXEPDULQHV WRPD[LPL]HWKHSUREDELOLW\RI

GHWHFWLQJRSSRVLQJIRUFHVXEPDULQHV

,QGLVFXVVLQJµWHPSRUDOGLIIHUHQFHOHDUQLQJ¶$OSD\GLQGHVFULEHVWKDW³LQFHUWDLQ

DSSOLFDWLRQVWKHHQYLURQPHQWLVSDUWLDOO\REVHUYDEOHDQGWKHDJHQWGRHVQRWNQRZWKHVWDWH

H[DFWO\,WLVHTXLSSHGZLWKVHQVRUVWKDWUHWXUQDQREVHUYDWLRQZKLFKLWXVHVWRHVWLPDWHWKHVWDWH

RIWKHHQYLURQPHQW´7KLVGHVFULSWLRQFDQEHUHODWHGERWKZRUNLQJLQDQHZRSHUDWLQJDUHD

ZKHUHRSHUDWRUVPXVWGHWHUPLQHWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIWKHRFHDQHQYLURQPHQWDVZHOODVWKHWDFWLFDO

UXQQLQJVWDWHRIDVXEPDULQH



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


2QHRIWKHPRUHFRPSOH[³URXWLQH´WDVNVWKDWVHQVRURSHUDWRUVPXVWFRQWLQXDOO\FDUU\RXW

LVWRDVVHVVDQGXQGHUVWDQGWKHRFHDQRJUDSKLFFRQGLWLRQVLQZKLFKWKH\DUHRSHUDWLQJ$FRXVWLF

DQDO\VLVVWDUWVZLWKILUVWJDLQLQJDEDVLFXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIRFHDQRJUDSK\DVRSHUDWRUVPXVWNQRZ

KRZVRXQGWUDYHOVWKURXJKZDWHUDQGKRZIDFWRUVVXFKDVFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKHRFHDQIORRUZDWHU

GHSWKDQGWHPSHUDWXUHDIIHFWVRXQGSURSDJDWLRQ:KHQDQ$6:SODWIRUPDUULYHVRQVFHQHLW

FDUULHVRXWDQLQLWLDOPHDVXUHPHQWVRIWKHORFDOZDWHUPDVVLQFOXGLQJEDWK\PHWU\VRXQGVSHHG

SURILOHDQGPHDVXUHPHQWVRIWKHEDFNJURXQGQRLVHRIWKHRFHDQWRXSGDWHHVWLPDWHVRIWKH

SUREDEOHGHWHFWLRQUDQJHVIRUDVXEPDULQH

2QFHWKHVHFDOFXODWLRQVDUHPDGHWKHSODWIRUPGHSOR\VLWVVHQVRUVWRDWWHPSWWRJDLQ

FRQWDFWRQWKHWDUJHWVXEPDULQHDWWHPSWLQJWRRSWLPL]HIRUWKHSUHGLFWHGRSHUDWLQJVWDWHDQG

H[SHFWHGDPRXQWRIUDGLDWHGQRLVHIURPWKHWDUJHW$VFRPSXWHUHQJLQHHULQJSURIHVVRU(WKHP

$OSD\GLQSRLQWVRXWDV\VWHPZRXOGKDYHWRSUHGLFW³WKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWLWLVLQHDFKVWDWHJLYHQ

WKHREVHUYDWLRQDQGWKHQGRHVWKHXSGDWHIRUDOOSUREDEOHVWDWHVZHLJKWHGE\WKHLU

SUREDELOLWLHV´*LYHQWKHDPRXQWRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQKHUHQWQRWRQO\LQRFHDQRJUDSKLFFRQGLWLRQV

EXWDOVRVXEPDULQHQRLVHHPLVVLRQWKHVHDUFKSKDVHFRQVLVWVRIDVHULHVRIYHU\FRPSOH[WDVNV

ZLWKKLJKXQFHUWDLQW\ZKLFK³PDNHVWKHWDVNPXFKPRUHGLIILFXOWDQGWKHSUREOHPKDUGHUWR

OHDUQ´

6XFFHVVIXOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIDQ0/V\VWHPIRUWKHVHDUFKSKDVHWDVNVFRXOGHQVXUH

RSWLPXPVHDUFKWDFWLFVDQGVHQVRUVHWWLQJV2QHDUHDZKHUHWKLVFRXOGEHDQDGYDQWDJHOLHVLQ

'LUHFWLYLW\,QGH[ZKLFKLVWKHDPRXQWRIµJDLQ¶DSSOLHGWR³GHWHFWLRQSUREDELOLW\EDVHGRQWKH



3DWULFN7XFNHU³+RZ$,:LOO7UDQVIRUP$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´'HIHQVH2QH-XO\
KWWSVZZZGHIHQVHRQHFRPWHFKQRORJ\KRZDLZLOOWUDQVIRUPDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUH

-HQQ-DFNVRQ³-XQLRU621$52SHUDWRUV/HDUQ+RZ7R+HDUDQG7UDFND6XEPDULQH´QDY\
PDULQHIRUFHVJFFD'HFHPEHUKWWSZZZQDY\PDULQHIRUFHVJFFDHQQHZVRSHUDWLRQVQHZV
YLHZSDJH"GRF MXQLRU621$5RSHUDWRUVOHDUQKRZWRKHDUDQGWUDFNDVXEPDULQH)N]IWIS

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


VHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHDFRXVWLFGHWHFWLRQV\VWHPLQXVHDQGZKHWKHUWKHV\VWHPLVXVHGLQ

'LUHFWLRQDORUQRQGLUHFWLRQDO GHJUHHV VHDUFKPRGH´7KURXJKRSWLPL]DWLRQRIDV\VWHP

ZKLFKFRXOGWKRURXJKO\PRQLWRUPXOWLSOHFKDQQHOVDWRQFHDQGFDUU\RXWVLPXOWDQHRXVSURFHVVLQJ

RIPXOWLSOHPRGHVVRPHWKLQJDKXPDQRSHUDWRULVXQDEOHWRGRVRPHQHZHUV\VWHPV³DOORZ

SODQQHUVWRXVHDVPXFKDVG%JDLQ´$G%JDLQLVHTXLYDOHQWWRDWHQIROGLQFUHDVHLQ

VXEPDULQHQRLVHZKLFKZRXOGJLYHVLJQLILFDQWO\H[WHQGHGGHWHFWLRQUDQJHV

Detect

2QHRIWKHPRVWGLIILFXOWWDVNVRIWKHDFRXVWLFRSHUDWRULVGHWHUPLQLQJZKLFKUHWXUQV

DPRQJDOORIWKHVRXQGVRXUFHVLQWKHRFHDQDUHRILQWHUHVWDQGZKLFKDUHVLPSO\EDFNJURXQG

QRLVH:KHQGHVFULELQJWKHWDVNRIILJXULQJRXWZKLFKRIWKHPDQ\VLJQDOVWKDWH[FHHGWKH

DPELHQWRFHDQQRLVHPD\EHVXEPDULQHUHODWHGWKLVWDVNLVRIWHQVXPPHGXSE\RSHUDWRUVDV

GHWHUPLQLQJ³ZKLFKRIWKHVHWKLQJVLVQRWOLNHWKHRWKHUV´

$IXUWKHUFKDOOHQJHLQWKLVVWDJHRI$6:LVWKDWRSHUDWRUVDGMXVWWKHVHWWLQJVRQWKHLU

V\VWHPVEDVHGRQWKHLUNQRZOHGJHRIWKHRFHDQRJUDSK\LQWKHDUHDDQGWKHDQWLFLSDWHGVRXQG

VRXUFHVRIWKHWDUJHW:KHQWKHVHVHWWLQJVDUHPDGHLQFRUUHFWO\DVSRLQWHGRXWE\6HRHWDOLQ

UHIHUHQFHWRDFWLYHV\VWHPVORZVLJQDOWRQRLVHUDWLR³VLJQDOVGRQRW\LHOGHQRXJKIHDWXUH

LQIRUPDWLRQWRGLVWLQJXLVKWKHPIURPFOXWWHU´DQGKXPDQRSHUDWRUVDQGWKH0/V\VWHPVWKDW

ZRXOGUHSODFHWKHPZLOOEHXQDEOHWRGHWHFWWKHWDUJHW98

:KHQWKHSRVLWLRQRIWKHVXEPDULQHLVXQNQRZQLWVVRXQGVRXUFHVFDQUHDFKWKHUHFHLYHU

WKURXJKDQ\QXPEHURISURSDJDWLRQSDWKVZKLFKLVPDGHHYHQPRUHFRPSOLFDWHGE\WKHWDUJHW¶V



:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´

,ELG

KWWSVZZZ\RXWXEHFRPZDWFK"Y UV5M4'U'Q<

,NVX6HR6HRQJZHRQ.LP<RXQJZRR5\X-XQJ\RQJ3DUNDQG'RQJ6HRJ+DQ³8QGHUZDWHU0RYLQJ
7DUJHW&ODVVLILFDWLRQ8VLQJ0XOWLOD\HU3URFHVVLQJ´$SSO6FLGRLDSS
ZZZPGSLFRPMRXUQDODSSOVFL

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


UHODWLYHPRWLRQ³$FRXVWLFVLJQDOZDYHIRUPGLVWRUWLRQORVVRIVLJQDOLQIRUPDWLRQDQG

LQFRPSOHWHUHFHLYHGDFRXVWLFVLJQDOV´GXHWRWDUJHWPRWLRQDQGSURSDJDWLRQRIVRXQGWKURXJK

FRPSOH[ZDWHUSURILOHVDUHFKDOOHQJHVRIWKHXQGHUZDWHUHQYLURQPHQWWKDWKDYHXQGHUJRQH

VLJQLILFDQWVWXG\DQGWRZKLFK³PDQ\DOJRULWKPVKDYHEHHQDSSOLHG´99$OJRULWKPVWR

³VLJQLILFDQWO\UHGXFHWKHPXOWLSDWKGLVWRUWLRQHIIHFWVRIVKDOORZXQGHUZDWHUFKDQQHO´FRXOGEH

JHQHUDWHGVWULFWO\IURPRFHDQRJUDSKLFUHVHDUFKRUFRXOGOHYHUDJHUHVHDUFKFDUULHGRXWRQ

5$'$5DQGRWKHUVHQVRUVLQRSWLPL]LQJV\VWHPVWRPRGHOYDULDELOLW\LQSURSDJDWLRQSDWKV

DYRLGLQJPLVVHGFRQWDFWGXHWR³WKHZHDNHVWWDUJHWVLJQDOUHWXUQVEHLQJRIWHQEXULHGE\WKH

FOXWWHUIORRULQGXFHGE\WKHVHGRPLQDQWSDWKV´$Q\0/DFRXVWLFV\VWHPZLOOQHHGVXIILFLHQW

GDWDWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHVHIDFWRUVLQWKHGHWHFWLRQRIWDUJHWVHLWKHUSDVVLYHO\RUDFWLYHO\

$OSD\GLQGLVFXVVHVFRPPHUFLDO0/V\VWHPVXVLQJRXWOLHUVIURPWKHQRUPWRGHWHFW³DQ

DEQRUPDOEHKDYLRURIWKHV\VWHP´DQGJLYHVH[DPSOHVRIIUDXGXOHQWFUHGLWFDUGWUDQVDFWLRQV

LQWUXVLRQDWWHPSWVE\KDFNHUVWRJHWLQWRDQHWZRUNWUDIILFDQGLQKHDOWKFDUHGHYLDWLRQVIURPD

SDWLHQW¶VQRUPDOEHKDYLRUDVSRWHQWLDOV\PSWRPVRIWKHRQVHWRIGLVHDVH,QWKHFDVHRI$6:

WKH³QRUPDO´FRXOGEHVHHQDVWKHUHJXODUDPELHQWQRLVHRIWKHRFHDQZLWKELRORJLFDOVRXQGVDQG

VKLSSLQJDFWLYLW\DQGRXWOLHUVIURPWKRVHVRXQGVEHLQJILOWHUHGDQGDQDO\]HGDVKDYLQJDKLJKHU

SUREDELOLW\RIRULJLQDWLQJIURPDVXEPDULQH

6XFKDQDSSURDFKZDVXVHGE\<DQJHWDOLQDWWHPSWLQJWRFUHDWHDPRGHOUHSOLFDWLQJWKH

IXQFWLRQVRIWKHKXPDQDXGLWRU\V\VWHP%DVHGRQWKHSUHPLVHWKDW³XQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLF



,ELG

$'DV$.XPDUDQG5%DKO³0DULQHYHVVHOFODVVLILFDWLRQEDVHGRQSDVVLYH621$5GDWDWKHFHSVWUXP
EDVHGDSSURDFK´,(75DGDU621$5 1DYLJDWLRQ  *LOOHV&KDEULHO-HDQ%DUUqUH³$GDSWLYH
7DUJHW'HWHFWLRQ7HFKQLTXHVIRU2)'0%DVHG3DVVLYH5DGDU([SORLWLQJ6SDWLDO'LYHUVLW\´,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ
6LJQDO3URFHVVLQJ,QVWLWXWHRI(OHFWULFDODQG(OHFWURQLFV(QJLQHHUV  SS
763KDO

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

+RQJKXL<DQJ-XQKDR/L6KHQJ6KHQDQG*XDQJKXL;X³$'HHS&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO1HWZRUN,QVSLUHG
E\$XGLWRU\3HUFHSWLRQIRU8QGHUZDWHU$FRXVWLF7DUJHW5HFRJQLWLRQ´6HQVRUV6HQVRUV

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WDUJHWUHFRJQLWLRQVWLOOPDLQO\UHOLHVRQZHOOWUDLQHG621$5PDQ´ZKRLGHQWLILHVREMHFWVRI

LQWHUHVWXVLQJWKH³SRZHUIXOLQIRUPDWLRQSURFHVVLQJDELOLW\RIWKHDXGLWRU\V\VWHP´WKH\

FRQVWUXFWHGDPRGHO³FRPSRVHGRIDVHULHVRIGHHS¿OWHUVXEQHWZRUNVIXVLRQOD\HUVDQG

GHFLVLRQOD\HU´DQGDSSOLHGLWWRWKHUHFRJQLWLRQRIXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFWDUJHWV7KHLU

DSSURDFKUHOLHGRQWUDLQLQJWKHLUPRGHOWR³OHDUQGLVFULPLQDWLYHIHDWXUHVIURPIUHTXHQF\

GLVWULEXWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWVKLSW\SHV´DQGXVHWKDWLQIRUPDWLRQWRFODVVLI\VKLSVE\W\SH

:KLOHSRWHQWLDOO\RIVRPHXVHLQGLVFULPLQDWLQJWDUJHWVRILQWHUHVWIURPEDFNJURXQG

QRLVHWKHLUPHWKRGDVVXPHG621$5RSHUDWRUVSULPDULO\XVHWKHLUDXGLWRU\V\VWHPWRFODVVLI\

WDUJHWV:KLOHRSHUDWRUVFDQGLIIHUHQWLDWHEHWZHHQQDWXUDODQGPDQPDGHVRXUFHVDQGFDQGR

UXGLPHQWDU\FODVVLILFDWLRQEDVHGRQVRXQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIFRPSRQHQWVOLNHSURSHOOHUILWPHQW

RQPRVWPRGHUQSODWIRUPVVXEPDULQHFODVVLILFDWLRQWRVSHFLILFW\SHRUEH\RQGLVFDUULHGRXW

XVLQJSURFHVVHGLQIRUPDWLRQWRLGHQWLI\SDWWHUQVDQGUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQVSHFLILFFRPSRQHQWV

DQGWKHVRXQGVWKH\HPLW:KLOHWKH\FODLPHGWKHLUUHVXOWV³VKRZWKDWDXGLWRU\SHUFHSWLRQ

LQVSLUHGGHHSOHDUQLQJPHWKRGKDVHQFRXUDJLQJSRWHQWLDOWRLPSURYHWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQ

SHUIRUPDQFHRI8$75´DQDFFXUDF\UDWHLQFODVVLI\LQJDPRQJDOLPLWHGVHWRIWDUJHWV

FRQVLVWLQJRIFDUJRVKLSVSDVVHQJHUVKLSVDQGWDQNHUVZRXOGEHLQVXIILFLHQWLQDQ$6:

HQYLURQPHQWZKHUHWKHXVHRIWRUSHGRHVZRXOGKDYHVWUDWHJLFLPSDFWV7KH\DOVR

DFNQRZOHGJHWKDWIRUUHFRJQLWLRQRIWDQNHUVWKHDFFXUDF\ZDVRQO\SRVVLEO\GXHWRWKH

WDQNHUKDYLQJ³VLPLODUG\QDPLFDOV\VWHPDQGVLPLODUVL]HZLWKFDUJR´0XFKOLNHWKHUHVXOWV

ZLWKDGYDQFHGSHUIRUPDQFHLQJDPHVVXFKDV*REDVHGRQDWWHPSWLQJWRUHSOLFDWHKXPDQWKRXJKW



,ELG

,ELG

,ELG

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


SURFHVVHVWU\LQJWRPLPLFKXPDQSK\VLRORJLFDOFDSDELOLWLHVPD\SURYLGHPRUHOLPLWHGUHVXOWV

WKDQRWKHU0/DSSURDFKHV

7KH<DQJVWXG\GRHVKDYHWKHXVHRI&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO1HWZRUNV &11 LQFRPPRQ

ZLWKPDQ\RWKHUVWXGLHVRIDFRXVWLFDSSOLFDWLRQVDVZHOODVZLWKPDQ\RIWKHFRPPHUFLDO

DSSOLFDWLRQVRI0/&11VKDYHEHHQDSSOLHGWRDXGLWRU\IXQFWLRQVOLNHVSHHFKUHFRJQLWLRQ

PXVLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQUHWULHYDODQGDFRXVWLFVFHQHFODVVLILFDWLRQDVZHOODVQRQDXGLWRU\WDVNV

VXFKDVKDQGZULWLQJUHFRJQLWLRQIDFLDOUHFRJQLWLRQQDWXUDOODQJXDJHSURFHVVLQJDQG³YLVXDO

UHFRJQLWLRQWDVNVRQODUJHFROOHFWLRQVRIODEHOOHGLPDJHV´DQGKDYH³VXUSDVVHGKXPDQOHYHOVRI

SHUIRUPDQFH´LQFHUWDLQFODVVLILFDWLRQWDVNV7KLVPHWKRGZRUNVE\FRQVWUXFWLQJPXOWLSOH

OD\HUVZLWKLQWKHGDWDZLWKHDFKOD\HUKDYLQJLQSXWDQGRXWSXWFRQQHFWLRQVWRSUHFHGLQJRU

VXEVHTXHQWOD\HUV7KHV\VWHPWKHQLGHQWLILHVZKLFKGHSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQVSHFLILFLQSXWVDQG

RXWSXWVDUHVWDWLVWLFDOO\UHOHYDQWDQGJLYHVWKRVHFRQQHFWLRQVRURSHUDWLRQVDFRQYROXWLRQRUD

PDWFKLQJ³RILWVLQSXWZLWKLWVZHLJKW´2QHVWXG\DWWHPSWLQJWRXVH&11VIRUREMHFW

GHWHFWLRQDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWE\7KRPDVHWDOZKRDSSOLHG&11VWRGHWHFWLQJDQG

FODVVLI\LQJPDULQHPDPPDOVWKURXJKSDVVLYHDFRXVWLFUHFRUGLQJVEXWZKLFKDOVRFRXOGKDYH

DSSOLFDWLRQVWRGHWHFWLQJDQGFODVVLI\LQJPDULQHYHVVHOV7KHLUPHWKRGSURYHG³FDSDEOHRI

FODVVLI\LQJWKHYRFDOL]DWLRQVRIWKUHHVSHFLHVRIZKDOHVQRQELRORJLFDOVRXUFHVRIQRLVHDQGD

ILIWKFODVVSHUWDLQLQJWRDPELHQWQRLVH´

,QPDQ\ZD\VWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQRIPDULQHPDPPDOVRXQGVLVPRUHGLIILFXOWWKDQWKDWRI

FODVVLI\LQJVXUIDFHYHVVHOVDVWKH\WHQGWREHVKRUWGXUDWLRQWKH\PRYHDFURVVIUHTXHQFLHVDQG



+DR<XH/LOXQ=KDQJ'H]KL:DQJ<RQJ[LDQ:DQJDQG=HQJTXDQ/X³7KH&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI8QGHUZDWHU
$FRXVWLF7DUJHWV%DVHGRQ'HHS/HDUQLQJ0HWKRGV´$GYDQFHVLQ,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPV5HVHDUFKYROXPH
$WODQWLV3UHVV0DUN7KRPDV%UXFH0DUWLQ.DWLH.RZDUVNL%ULDQG*DXGHWDQG6WDQ0DWZLQ±³0DULQH0DPPDO
6SHFLHV&ODVVLILFDWLRQXVLQJ&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO1HWZRUNVDQGD1RYHO$FRXVWLF5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ´-XO\

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

0DUN7KRPDVHWDO0DULQH0DPPDO6SHFLHV&ODVVLILFDWLRQXVLQJ&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO1HWZRUNV

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


RQHVSHFLHVRIPDPPDOGRHVQRWDOZD\VJHQHUDWHVRXQGVDWWKHH[DFWVDPHIUHTXHQF\2IWHQ

WKHLUDFRXVWLFVLJQDWXUHVDUHPDVNHGE\ORXGVKLSSLQJQRLVHRFFXUULQJLQWKHVDPHSRUWLRQRIWKH

IUHTXHQF\VSHFWUXP7HFKQLTXHVWRRYHUFRPHWKHVHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVZRXOGEHXVHIXOIRUDQ0/

V\VWHPLQWKHGHWHFWLRQDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIVXEPDULQHVZKLFKVKDUHPDQ\RIWKHDERYH

FKDUDFWHULVWLFVZLWKPDULQHPDPPDOV6RPHVKRUWGXUDWLRQVRXQGVKDYHNH\WDFWLFDOPHDQLQJV

DQGDUHDOWLPH$6:PLVVLRQZRXOGQHHGWRPLQLPL]HWKHFKDQFHVRIEHLQJPLVOHGE\ RUQRW

UHDFWLQJDSSURSULDWHO\WR DVLJQLILFDQWVXEPDULQHRUZDUVKLSWDFWLFDODFWLRQ7KRPDVHWDO

DFNQRZOHGJHWKDW³ZKLOHWKHUHVXOWVIRFXVHGRQLQWKLVSDSHUDUHFHQWUHGRQGHWHFWLRQDQG

FODVVLILFDWLRQRIPDULQHPDPPDOVWKHIUDPHZRUNRXWOLQHGFDQEHDGDSWHGWRRWKHUWDVNVVXFK

DVDFRXVWLFVFHQHFODVVLILFDWLRQ´

&RQWUDU\WRWKH<DQJVWXG\7KRPDVHWDOFRUUHFWO\UHFRJQL]HGWKDW³KXPDQDQDO\VLVRI

DFRXVWLFGDWDLVRIWHQFDUULHGRXWYLVXDOO\XVLQJVSHFWURJUDPVDVLWLVIDVWHUWRYLVXDOO\LGHQWLI\

VLJQDOVRILQWHUHVWZLWKRXWKDYLQJWROLVWHQWRWKHHQWLUHUHFRUGLQJ´9LVXDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVRI

DFRXVWLFLQIRUPDWLRQDOVRDOORZV³IRUWKHDQDO\VLVDQGLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIVRXQGVRXWVLGHRIWKH

KXPDQKHDULQJUDQJH´8OWLPDWHO\WKHFODVVLILHUSUHVHQWHGLQWKHSDSHUZDV³FDSDEOHRI

GHWHFWLQJWKHSUHVHQFHDQGDEVHQFHRIZKDOHYRFDOL]DWLRQVLQDQDFRXVWLFUHFRUGLQJ´DQGQRWDEO\

ZDVFDSDEOHRIJHQHUDOL]LQJWRDGGLWLRQDOVSHFLHVWKURXJKWUDQVIHUOHDUQLQJ7KLVODVWSRLQWLV

SURPLVLQJIRUWKHUHDOPRI$6:VLQFHLIWKHV\VWHPLV³FDSDEOHRIOHDUQLQJJHQHUDOL]DEOH

UHSUHVHQWDWLRQVIRUWKHSXUSRVHRILQFOXGLQJDGGLWLRQDOVSHFLHV«ZLWKYHU\OLWWOHDQQRWDWHGGDWD´

WKHWUDLQLQJSURFHVVFRXOGEHIDVWHUIRUDGGLWLRQDOVSHFLHVRULQWKHFDVHRI$6:FODVVHVRI



,ELG

,ELG

,ELG

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


VXEPDULQHV³WKURXJKWUDQVIHUOHDUQLQJ´,QWKHFDVHRIDQHZVXEPDULQHW\SHRURQHZLWKD

VPDOOQXPEHURIGHWHFWLRQVDIWHUDUHILWRURWKHUFKDQJHWRLWVDFRXVWLFVLJQDWXUHWUDQVIHUOHDUQLQJ

VKRXOGEHHTXDOO\DSSOLFDEOH*LYHQWKHEURDGYDULHW\LQDFRXVWLFVRXUFHVDFURVVSODWIRUPVLW

FRXOGEHH[SHFWHGWKDWDV\VWHPWKDWKDV³OHDUQHG´KRZWRFDUU\RXWEDVLFDQDO\VLVFRXOG

VXEVHTXHQWO\OHDUQVXEVHTXHQWVWHSVIDVWHUDQGPDNHPRUHDFFXUDWHDVVHVVPHQWV

$FKDOOHQJHLGHQWLILHGE\WKHDXWKRUVZKLFKLVDSSOLFDEOHWRWKH$6:UHDOPLV³WKDW

JURXQGWUXWKODEHOOHGGDWDLVGLIILFXOWWRREWDLQGXHWRWKHUHTXLUHGH[SHUWLVHDQGWUDLQLQJRIWKH

ODEHOOHU$VDUHVXOWRQO\DYHU\VPDOOIUDFWLRQRIWKHODUJHFROOHFWLRQVRIDFRXVWLFGDWDLVVXLWDEOH

IRUVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJ´7KLVZRXOGDSSO\HTXDOO\WRWKHXVHRIDQDQQRWDWHGOLEUDU\RI

VXEPDULQHDQGRWKHUPDULQHYHVVHOVLJQDWXUHVPRVWRIZKLFKZRXOGEHFODVVLILHGDQGVXEMHFWWR

OLPLWHGUHOHDVHWRFRPSDQLHVRUUHVHDUFKHUVDWWHPSWLQJWRWHDFKDQ0/KRZWRFDUU\RXWSDVVLYH

DFRXVWLFDQDO\VLV$NLQWRDPDULQHPDPPDOHPLWWLQJGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIYRFDOL]DWLRQVPDULQH

YHVVHOVGRQRWDOZD\VRSHUDWHLQWKHVDPHVSHHGUHJLPHRUHTXLSPHQWUXQQLQJVWDWHVIXUWKHU

FKDOOHQJLQJWKHDOJRULWKPVWR³OHDUQ´WKHVLJQDWXUHRIDYHVVHOZKHQWKHUHLVVLJQLILFDQWYDULHW\LQ

H[DPSOHVIURPZKLFKWROHDUQ

7KHDXWKRUVDOVRQRWHWKDWLQWKHDQDO\VLVRIDFRXVWLFUHFRUGLQJVUHVHDUFKHUVRIWHQDOWHU

WKHSDUDPHWHUVXVHGVXFKDVWLPHVDPSOLQJDQGRWKHUVHWWLQJVWRJHQHUDWHDYDULHW\RI

VSHFWURJUDPVZLWKGLIIHUHQWWLPHDQGIUHTXHQF\UHVROXWLRQVLQRUGHUWRRSWLPL]HIRUYDU\LQJ

GXUDWLRQVDQGIUHTXHQF\UDQJHVRIYRFDOL]DWLRQV7KLVUHSURFHVVLQJFDQHLWKHUDPSOLI\D

GHWHFWLRQRUFDQFDXVHRQHWR³PLVFODVVLI\DYRFDOL]DWLRQDVDGLIIHUHQWVSHFLHVRUPLVVWKH

YRFDOL]DWLRQHQWLUHO\´7KH\SURSRVHGJHQHUDWLQJVHYHUDOVSHFWURJUDPVXVLQJPXOWLSOHD



,ELG

,ELG

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


YDULHW\RISDUDPHWHUV7KLVPLUURUVWKHSURFHVVHVXVHGGXULQJSRVWPLVVLRQDQDO\VLVZKHUHD

WUDLQHGRSHUDWRUZLOOFDUU\RXWVHYHUDOLWHUDWLRQVRISURFHVVLQJWRDFKLHYHWKHEHVWORRNLQJ

/2)$5µFXW¶RIDFRQWDFWLQRUGHUWRSURYLGHIHHGEDFNRUXVHWKHH[DPSOHIRUWUDLQLQJRWKHU

RSHUDWRUV7KLVSRLQWFRXOGEHLPSRUWDQWIRUPLPLFNLQJWKHWDVNVRIRSHUDWRUVRQDQ$6:

SODWIRUPDVZHOO:KLOHVHDUFKLQJIRUVXEPDULQHVRXUFHVDQGWU\LQJWRRSWLPL]HWKHLUV\VWHPV

RQFHDVRXUFHLVGHWHFWHGRSHUDWRUVZLOODGMXVWWKHSURFHVVLQJSDUDPHWHUVRIWKHLUV\VWHPVWRWU\

WRJHWWKHEHVWSLFWXUH0XFKOLNHWKHGLVFXVVLRQRI'LUHFWLYLW\,QGH[DQGKDYLQJDV\VWHPDEOHWR

VLPXOWDQHRXVO\SURFHVVPXOWLSOHPRGHVDQ0/V\VWHPWKDWFRXOGFRQFXUUHQWO\SURFHVVPXOWLSOH

VHWWLQJVRQDQLQFRPLQJVLJQDOFRXOGSRWHQWLDOO\LQFUHDVHLWVFKDQFHVRIGHWHFWLQJDWDUJHW

VLJQLILFDQWO\

:KLOH7KRPDVHWDO¶VZRUNIRFXVHGRQXVLQJVSHFWURJUDPVRUYLVXDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVRI

VRXQGGDWDWKH\SRLQWRXWWKDW³UHFHQWZRUNLQWRQHXUDOQHWZRUNDUFKLWHFWXUHVWKDWRSHUDWH

GLUHFWO\RQWKHZDYHIRUPRIDQDFRXVWLFVLJQDOKDYHVKRZQJUHDWSURPLVH´DV³WKURXJKOHDUQLQJ

IURPWKHZDYHIRUPGLUHFWO\ZHDYRLGDQ\LQIRUPDWLRQORVVWKDWWDNHVSODFHGXULQJD)RXULHU

WUDQVIRUP´-LQHWDOIRXQGLQWKHLUZRUNKRZHYHUWKDWWKHLU³QHXUDOQHWZRUNFDQDFKLHYH

KLJKHUSHUIRUPDQFHRQ/2)$5VSHFWUXPVDPSOHV>@WKDQWKHDXGLRIRUPDWRQHV>@´VR

WKHUHLVVRPHGLVFUHSDQF\LQUHVHDUFKRQZKLFKPHWKRGLVPRUHDFFXUDWH8OWLPDWHO\IRUWKH

SXUSRVHVRIWKLVSDSHUDGHFLGLQJIDFWRUPD\EHZKLFKVROXWLRQFRXOGEHFDSDEOHRIUHDOWLPH

DFRXVWLFDQDO\VLV,QDQ0/V\VWHPUHSODFLQJDKXPDQRSHUDWRUWKHUHZRXOGEHQRQHHGIRUD



/2)$5LVDQDFURQ\PIRU³/RZ)UHTXHQF\$QDO\VLVDQG5DQJLQJ´

0DUN7KRPDVHWDO³0DULQH0DPPDO6SHFLHV&ODVVLILFDWLRQXVLQJ&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO1HWZRUNV´

*XDQJKDR-LQ)DQ/LX+DR:X 4XLQ]HQJ6RQJ  'HHS/HDUQLQJEDVHG)UDPHZRUNIRUH[SDQVLRQ
UHFRJQLWLRQDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVLJQDO-RXUQDORI([SHULPHQWDO 7KHRUHWLFDO$UWLILFLDO
,QWHOOLJHQFH'2,;

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


UHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIGDWDIRUKXPDQH\HVVRDNH\FULWHULRQPD\EHDYRLGLQJLQIRUPDWLRQORVVWR

HQVXUHRSWLPDOSHUIRUPDQFHE\WKHV\VWHP

<XHHWDOUHSRUWHGKLJKHUDFFXUDF\LQWKHLUFODVVLILFDWLRQVWXG\ZKHQXVLQJD

JHQHUDWLYH'HHS%HOLHI1HWZRUN '%1 HVVHQWLDOO\DFRPELQDWLRQRIGHHSOHDUQLQJPHWKRGV

LQFOXGLQJDV\VWHPRULJLQDOO\GHYHORSHGWRFODVVLI\ZKDOHFDOOV7KHLUPHWKRGZKLFKWKH\

FRQFOXGHGFRXOG³H[WUDFWPRUHVWDEOHDQGPRUHH[SUHVVLYHIHDWXUHVRIWKHWDUJHWWKDQWKHVFKHPHV

EDVHGRQH[SHUWNQRZOHGJHRIXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVLJQDOSURFHVVLQJ´ZKLOHEDVHGRQDOLPLWHG

WDUJHWVHWRIQRLV\:RUOG:DU,,UHFRUGLQJVVKRZHGWKDWDFRPELQDWLRQRIPHWKRGVWRFODVVLI\

WDUJHWVUDWKHUWKDQXVLQJDVLQJOHPHWKRGFRXOGEHPRUHHIIHFWLYHLQFODVVLILFDWLRQ7KH\

FRQFOXGHGWKDWDODUJHUGDWDVHWRIWDUJHWVZRXOGEHQHFHVVDU\WRGULYHIXWXUHGHHSOHDUQLQJVWXGLHV

LQWKLVILHOG,QWHUHVWLQJO\LQ$UWXVLDQG&KDLOODQXVHGDVLPLODUGDWDVHWDQGFDPHWR

VLPLODUFRQFOXVLRQV

-LQHWDOKDYHHFKRHGWKDWGDWDVHWVIRUWUDLQLQJDUHGLIILFXOWWRXVHEHFDXVHRIVHFXULW\DQG

RWKHUUHVWULFWLRQV³ZKLFKDIIHFWVWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHGHHSOHDUQLQJPHWKRGVDVWKRVHQHHGD

ELJGDWDVHWWRHQVXUHKLJKDFFXUDF\´7KLVKDVWKHSRWHQWLDOHIIHFWRIOLPLWLQJ³IHDWXUHVWKDW

FDQEHFDSWXUHGE\VDPSOHV´7KH\FRPPHQWWKDWWKHH[SDQVLRQRIDOLPLWHGGDWDEDVHE\

PDWKHPDWLFDOPHWKRGVZKLFKKDVEHHQXVHGLQPDQ\RIWKHVWXGLHVUHYLHZHGLQWKHUHVHDUFKIRU

WKLVSDSHUFUHDWHVDOLPLWDWLRQDVWKHUHLVVWLOOD³ODFNRIGLYHUVLW\´LQWKHGDWD



+DR<XH/LOXQ=KDQJ'H]KL:DQJ<RQJ[LDQ:DQJDQG=HQJTXDQ/X³7KH&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI8QGHUZDWHU
$FRXVWLF7DUJHWV%DVHGRQ'HHS/HDUQLQJ0HWKRGV´$GYDQFHVLQ,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPV5HVHDUFKYROXPH
$WODQWLV3UHVV-DQXDU\

($UWXVL)&KDLOODQ³$XWRPDWLF5HFRJQLWLRQRI8QGHUZDWHU$FRXVWLF6LJQDWXUHIRU1DYDO$SSOLFDWLRQV´
VW0DULWLPH6LWXDWLRQDO$ZDUHQHVV:RUNVKRS 06$: 

*XDQJKDR-LQ)DQ/LX+DR:X 4XLQ]HQJ6RQJ  ³'HHS/HDUQLQJEDVHG)UDPHZRUNIRUH[SDQVLRQ
UHFRJQLWLRQDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVLJQDO´-RXUQDORI([SHULPHQWDO 7KHRUHWLFDO$UWLILFLDO
,QWHOOLJHQFH'2,;

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


$QRWKHUVRXUFHRIODFNRIGLYHUVLW\LQVXEPDULQHVLJQDWXUHGDWDEDVHVLVWKDWVXEVFKDQJH

RSHUDWLQJPRGHVWRFRQWUROWKHDPRXQWRIQRLVHJLYHQRIIRUWKHLUDVSHFWUHODWLYHWRDQDFWLYH

VHQVRUWRDWWHPSWWRKLGHIURPVHDUFKVHQVRUVDQGSUHVXPDEO\GRQRWVKRZWKHLUYXOQHUDELOLWLHV

ZKHQWKH\VXVSHFWDQ$6:SODWIRUPLVWU\LQJWRGHWHFWRUFROOHFWLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHP,QIDFLDO

UHFRJQLWLRQZKHUH³WKHLQSXWLVWKHLPDJHFDSWXUHGE\DFDPHUDDQGWKHFODVVHVDUHWKHSHRSOHWR

EHUHFRJQL]HG´WKHSURJUDPKDVWRILUVWGHWHUPLQHZKDWLVDIDFHDQGZKDWLVEDFNJURXQGDQG

WKHQPDWFKWKHGHWHFWHGLPDJHVRIIDFHVWRDQLQGLYLGXDOLGHQWLW\ZKLOHRYHUFRPLQJFKDOOHQJHV

UHODWHGWRLQFRPSOHWHLQIRUPDWLRQVXFKDVGLIIHUHQFHVLQDQJOHVDQGOLJKWLQJFUHDWLQJVLJQLILFDQW

YDULDWLRQVLQDWZRGLPHQVLRQDOLPDJHVDQGVXEMHFWVWU\LQJWRFRYHUSDUWVRIWKHLUIDFHVRU

GLVJXLVHWKHLULGHQWLWLHV

)DFLDOUHFRJQLWLRQPXVWGHDOZLWKWZRIDFWRUV³IHDWXUHVWKDWGHILQHWKHLGHQWLW\´DQG

³IHDWXUHVWKDWKDYHQRHIIHFWRQWKHLGHQWLW\EXWDIIHFWDSSHDUDQFHVXFKDVDKDLUVW\OHRU

H[SUHVVLRQ´$VRXWOLQHGHDUOLHUVXEPDULQHVSURGXFHVRXQGVIURPSURSXOVLRQSODQWQRLVH

SURSHOOHUQRLVHDQGQRLVHJHQHUDWHGDVZDWHUPRYHVRYHUWKHKXOO6RPHRIWKHVHVRXUFHVDUH

IL[HGDQGFDQEHXVHGWRFODVVLI\RUGHILQHWKHLGHQWLW\RIDVXEPDULQHZKLOHRWKHUVDIIHFWWKH

RYHUDOODSSHDUDQFHRIWKHVRXQGVLJQDWXUHEXWGRQRWGLUHFWO\UHODWHWRWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQ

:LWKIDFLDOUHFRJQLWLRQWKHV\VWHPWDNHVWKHLQSXWVRISL[HOVZKLFKGRQRWWKHPVHOYHV

³FDUU\GLVFULPLQDWLYHLQIRUPDWLRQ´DQGWKURXJKDSSOLFDWLRQRI'11VJHQHUDWHVDQGDQDO\]HV

IHDWXUHVDQGFRPELQDWLRQVRIIHDWXUHVWRGHILQHDIDFHZKLFKLWGRHVE\³IHDWXUHH[WUDFWLRQ´

7KRXJKSHRSOHUHFRJQL]HIDFHVHDVLO\LWLVDQXQFRQVFLRXVSURFHVVWKDWLVGLIILFXOWWRH[SODLQDQG



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

,ELG

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


DVVXFKZHFDQQRWZULWHWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJFRPSXWHUSURJUDP´$OHDUQLQJSURJUDPRQWKH

RWKHUKDQGFDQLGHQWLI\WKHXQFKDQJLQJKLGGHQSDWWHUQVVSHFLILFWRDQLQGLYLGXDODQGXVHWKHPWR

LGHQWLI\WKDWSHUVRQ

6LPLODUO\DFRXVWLFRSHUDWRUVDOUHDG\NQRZPDQ\RIWKHIRUPXODVDQGUHODWLRQVKLSV

EHWZHHQV\VWHPVRQDVXEPDULQHRUVKLSVRWKHVHNQRZQSDWWHUQVDPRQJWKHGDWDFRXOGEHIHG

LQWRWKHV\VWHPWRWUDLQWKH$,+RZHYHUVLQFHZHKDYHDOUHDG\HVWDEOLVKHGWKHSRWHQWLDORI0/

V\VWHPVWRFRQGXFWGHHSOHDUQLQJWRGLVFRYHUKLGGHQRUXQVHHQUHODWLRQVKLSVWKHUHLVSRWHQWLDOWR

JLYHWKHV\VWHPDKHDGVWDUWPXFKDVWKHGHVLJQHUVRIWKHLQLWLDO0/*RFKDPSLRQVGLG

$QRWKHUDUHDZKHUHKXPDQVDQG$,V\VWHPVDUHZRUNLQJWRJHWKHUWRGHWHFWDQRPDOLHVDQG

LGHQWLI\ZKHWKHUDVHQVHGLWHPLVRILQWHUHVWLVLQWKHPHGLFDOILHOG7KHILUVWXVHRIWKH:DWVRQ

FRPSXWHUWKDWEHDW-HRSDUG\FKDPSLRQVZDVDW&ROXPELD8QLYHUVLW\DQGWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI

0DU\ODQGPHGLFDOFHQWHUV³WRSURYLGHDF\EHUQHWLFDVVLVWDQWVHUYLFHWRGRFWRUV´$,V\VWHPV

KDYHSURYHQDVHIIHFWLYHDVGRFWRUVLQILQGLQJDQGFODVVLI\LQJWXPRXUVLQSDWLHQWV¶PDPPRJUDPV

DQGRWKHUVFDQV$,V\VWHPVKDYHDOVREHHQHQOLVWHGLQWKHILJKWDJDLQVWWKH&29,'

SDQGHPLFH[DPLQLQJ;UD\VRU&7VFDQVRIWKHOXQJVWRWU\WRLGHQWLI\VLJQVRIWKHYLUXVDVDQ

DOWHUQDWLYHWRWHVWVORRNLQJIRUJHQHWLFPDWHULDOVRIWKHYLUXVLWVHOI7KLVLQLWLDWLYHKDVUXQLQWR

WKHFKDOOHQJHRIOLPLWHGGDWDDERXWWKHYLUXVDQGWKHGDWDWKDWH[LVWVEHLQJVSUHDGDURXQGWKH

ZRUOGPDNLQJLWGLIILFXOWWRDFFHVVDQGXWLOL]HWRLWVIXOOSRWHQWLDO/LNHWKHPHGLFDOILHOG

DFRXVWLFDQDO\VLVRIVXEPDULQHVZLWKLWVOLPLWHGGDWDFDWDORJXHVDQGUHVWULFWLRQVRQLQIRUPDWLRQ

VKDULQJEHWZHHQQDWLRQVPXVWEHFDXWLRXVQRWWRVNHZRUFRUUXSWWKHGDWDDQGVXEVHTXHQW



,ELG

(ULF7RSRO7KH&UHDWLYH'HVWUXFWLRQRI0HGLFLQHL[

)HUJXV:DOVK³$,µ2XWSHUIRUPV¶'RFWRUV'LDJQRVLQJ%UHDVW&DQFHU´%%&1HZV-DQXDU\
KWWSVZZZEEFFRPQHZVKHDOWK

5D\7LHUQDQ³$,5XQV6PDFN8S$JDLQVWD%LJ'DWD3UREOHPLQ&29,''LDJQRVLV´='1HW$SULO
KWWSVZZZQHZVEUHDNFRPQHZV2HUN)5=DLUXQVVPDFNXSDJDLQVWDELJGDWDSUREOHPLQFRYLG
GLDJQRVLV

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


OHDUQLQJ6RPHUHVHDUFKLVVXJJHVWLQJWKDWSXUHO\VXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJRUHYHQ'HHS/HDUQLQJ

PHWKRGVZLWKLQVXIILFLHQWGDWDVHWVDUHQRWWKHRSWLPXPZD\RIFUHDWLQJ0/V\VWHPVDQGWKDW

6HOI6XSHUYLVHGV\VWHPVFRXOGEHPRUHHIIHFWLYHHYHQZLWKOLPLWHGGDWDVHWV)RUGHWHFWLRQRI

DFRXVWLFVRXUFHVIURPRXWRIWKHEDFNJURXQGQRLVHRIWKHRFHDQWKHVHDOJRULWKPVZRXOGQHHGWR

EHRSWLPL]HGWRSURYLGHWKHEHVWOHDUQLQJIURPOLPLWHGDPRXQWVRIGDWD

Localize

2QFHDVLJQDOKDVEHHQGHWHFWHGDQGGHHPHGDSRVVLEOHWDUJHWRILQWHUHVWLWVSRVLWLRQ

FRXUVHDQGVSHHGDUHUHILQHGDQGIXUWKHUDQDO\VLVRIFODVVLILFDWLRQRFFXUVFRQFXUUHQWO\GXULQJWKH

ORFDOL]HSKDVHRI$6:,IWKHLQLWLDOGHWHFWLRQLVRQRQHRIPXOWLSOHVHQVRUVVXFKDVDVRQREXR\

ZLWKLQDGHSOR\HGSDWWHUQRUGLVWULEXWHGILHOGRWKHUQHDUE\VHQVRUVDUHFKHFNHGWRVHHLIWKH\DOVR

KROGFRQWDFWDQGEHDULQJLQIRUPDWLRQLVFRUUHODWHGWRUHILQHWKHSRVLWLRQRIWKHFRQWDFW7KLVMRE

RIFRUUHODWLQJLQLWLDOFRQWDFWEHWZHHQVHQVRUVZRXOGQHHGWREHSHUIRUPHGE\DQ0/V\VWHP

,IWKHLQLWLDOGHWHFWLRQZDVYLDSDVVLYHDFRXVWLFVHQVRUVVXFKDVDVRQREXR\IXUWKHU

WDFWLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQLVW\SLFDOO\FROOHFWHGDVWKHFRQWDFWSDVVHVWKURXJKWKHFORVHVWSRLQWRI

DSSURDFK &3$ 7KHSUREDELOLW\RIWKHFRQWDFWEHLQJDVXEPDULQHDQGVSHFLILFDOO\WKH

VXEPDULQHEHLQJKXQWHGFDQEHIXUWKHUUHILQHGWKURXJKWKHXVHRIDGGLWLRQDOVHQVRUVVXFKDV

0$'RU5$'$5WRFRUUHODWHNQRZQLQIRUPDWLRQ7KHQDUURZLQJRIFODVVLILFDWLRQUHOLHVRQWKH

NQRZOHGJHDQGH[SHULHQFHRIWKHRSHUDWRUDVZHOODVWKHVSHFLILFLQIRUPDWLRQEHLQJJLYHQRIIE\

WKHWDUJHWZKHWKHUDFRXVWLFVLJQDWXUHRUWDFWLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQVXFKDVVSHHG

7KHSDVVLYHDFRXVWLFVLJQDWXUHW\SLFDOO\FRQVLVWVRIGLVFUHWH VPDOOEDQGZLGWK OLQHV

UHSUHVHQWLQJVSHFLILFIUHTXHQFLHVRQD/2)$5GLVSOD\GHSLFWLQJIUHTXHQF\RYHUWLPH



%HQ'LFNVRQ³6HOI6XSHUYLVHG/HDUQLQJLVWKH)XWXUHRI$,´7KH1H[W:HE$SULO
KWWSVWKHQH[WZHEFRPQHXUDOVHOIVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJLVWKHIXWXUHRIDLV\QGLFDWLRQ

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


)OXFWXDWLRQVLQWKHVHOLQHVGHSLFWFKDQJHVLQIUHTXHQF\DQGWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKHVH³OLQHIHDWXUHVRI

/2)$5VSHFWUXPLPDJHV´LVKRZSDVVLYHDQDO\VLVRIVXEPDULQHWDUJHWVLVW\SLFDOO\DFKLHYHG

7KHDQDO\VLVRIWKHVHIUHTXHQF\OLQHVFDQEHUHODWHGWRDSSOLFDWLRQVVXFKDVWH[W

UHFRJQLWLRQZKHUHDFRPSXWHUH[DPLQHVVHYHUDOOD\HUVRILQIRUPDWLRQWRGHWHUPLQHZKDW

LQIRUPDWLRQLVEHLQJSHUFHLYHG)RUH[DPSOHVPDOOJURXSLQJVRISL[HOVZLOOEHLGHQWLILHGE\

WKHLUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGFODVVLILHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUSURSHUWLHV7KHVHFRPELQDWLRQVDUHPDGH

LWHUDWLYHO\XQWLOWKHV\VWHPFDQUHFRJQL]HWKHPDQGEDVHGRQWKHDEVHQFHRUSUHVHQFHRIRWKHU

FOXVWHUVDURXQGWKHPSUHGLFWZKLFKOHWWHUVDQGZRUGVDUHPRVWOLNHO\SUHVHQW7KLVUHODWHVWRD

GLVSOD\RIDFRXVWLFLQIRUPDWLRQLQWKDWWKHUHDUHVWDEOHDQGXQVWDEOHOLQHVDWSDUWLFXODU

IUHTXHQFLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKYDULRXVPHFKDQLFDOVRXUFHVDQGLQGLYLGXDOOLQHVFDQEHUHODWHGWR

RWKHUOLQHVHOVHZKHUHLQWKHIUHTXHQF\VSHFWUXPYLDPDWKHPDWLFDOUHODWLRQVKLSVWRGHULYHWDFWLFDO

DQGFODVVLILFDWLRQLQIRUPDWLRQ

7KHVKLIWLQDIUHTXHQF\GXHWRFKDQJHVLQUHODWLYHDVSHFWRIDVRXQGVRXUFH WKH'RSSOHU

HIIHFW LVDQRWKHUDUHDLQZKLFKDVHQVRURSHUDWRUQHHGVWRUHFRJQL]HZKDWLVKDSSHQLQJWDFWLFDOO\

$YHU\VKRUWGXUDWLRQVWHHSDQJOHGFKDQJHLQIUHTXHQF\FRXOGUHIOHFWDYHU\FORVHUDQJHSDVVE\

DVRQREXR\ZKHUHDVDPRUHJUDGXDOVKLIWXVXDOO\LQGLFDWHVDORQJHUUDQJHDSSURDFK+XPDQ

RSHUDWRUVGLVFULPLQDWHEHWZHHQIOXFWXDWLRQVLQIUHTXHQF\GXHWRDFKDQJHLQWKHVRXQGVRXUFHDQG

HYHQWVSHUFHLYHGGXHWRDFKDQJHLQ'RSSOHUGXHWRPDQHXYHULQJRIWKHWDUJHWDQGDQ$,V\VWHP

FRXOGXVHWHFKQLTXHVVXFKDVWKRVHXVHGLQWH[WUHFRJQLWLRQWRVLPLODUO\EHDEOHWRGLIIHUHQWLDWH

EHWZHHQWKHVHVFHQDULRVLQRUGHUWRGHWHUPLQHWDFWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWLQIRUPDWLRQLQ$6:



*XDQJKDR-LQ)DQ/LX+DR:X 4XLQ]HQJ6RQJ³'HHS/HDUQLQJEDVHG)UDPHZRUNIRUH[SDQVLRQ
UHFRJQLWLRQDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVLJQDO´-RXUQDORI([SHULPHQWDO 7KHRUHWLFDO$UWLILFLDO
,QWHOOLJHQFH  '2,;

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


:LWKKDQGZULWLQJLPDJHDQDO\VLV³ZHNQRZWKDWEHFDXVHWKHYLVXDOVFHQHFKDQJHV

VPRRWKO\QHDUE\SL[HOVWHQGWREHORQJWRWKHVDPHREMHFWDQGZKHUHWKHUHLVVXGGHQFKDQJHDQ

HGJHLVLQIRUPDWLYHEHFDXVHLWLVUDUH´/LQHVLQD/2)$5JUDPDUHVLPLODULQWKDWOLQHVDUH

W\SLFDOO\FRQWLQXRXVZLWKPLQLPDOVXGGHQVKLIWVDQGDVXGGHQFKDQJHRUHGJHXVXDOO\LQGLFDWHV

DQDEUXSWWDFWLFDOFKDQJHOLNHDWXUQVSHHGFKDQJHRURWKHUDEUXSWFKDQJHWRWKHRSHUDWLQJ

FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHWDUJHW

$QRWKHU$6:VHQVRUH[DPSOHDOEHLWRQHQRWFXUUHQWO\FDUULHGRXWE\DFRXVWLFLDQVLVWKH

DQDO\VLVRI0$'WUDFHVZKHUHDKXPDQRSHUDWRUPXVWGLIIHUHQWLDWHEHWZHHQLQWHUIHUHQFH

JHQHUDWHGE\PDQHXYHULQJRIWKHDLUFUDIWDQGDQDFWXDOGLVWXUEDQFHWRWKHPDJQHWLFILHOGWKDWWKH

V\VWHPVHQVHVIURPDPHWDOREMHFWLQWKHRFHDQ7KH0$'WUDFHFRQVLVWVRIDYHUWLFDOOLQHZLWK

FRQVWDQWVKDUSDQGVKDOORZKRUL]RQWDOGHYLDWLRQV$Q$,FRXOGEHWUDLQHGWRLQWHUSUHWWKHVH

WUDFHVDUJXDEO\ZLWKPRUHDFFXUDF\DQGPRUHIRFXVRQWKHUHWXUQVDWDOOWLPHV7KHGDWDIRUWKLV

FRXOGEHFROOHFWHG DQGWKH$,WUDLQHG E\IO\LQJDQDLUFUDIWRYHUYDULRXVVL]HGVKLSVRUNQRZQ

LWHPV:KLOHFXUUHQWV\VWHPVDUHDXWRPDWHGWRUHFRJQL]HDQGLGHQWLI\ZKHQDGHYLDWLRQRFFXUV

WKH\DUHSURJUDPPHGQRWOHDUQHGWKURXJKGHHSOHDUQLQJQHWZRUNVOHDYLQJDQRSSRUWXQLW\IRU

WKLVV\VWHPWREHRSWLPL]HG

7KHWDVNRIH[WUDFWLQJSURFHVVLQJPXOWLSOHOD\HUVRILQIRUPDWLRQWRLQWHUSUHWWKHVWUXFWXUH

RIDOLQHRULQWKHFDVHRISDVVLYHDFRXVWLFVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQDOORIWKHVRXUFHV

DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDFRQWDFWDQGDVVRFLDWLQJWKDWVWUXFWXUHZLWKOHDUQHGWDFWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQVKDV

SURYHQWREHDFKLHYDEOHE\0/PHWKRGVLQKDQGZULWLQJDQDO\VLVVSHHFKUHFRJQLWLRQDQGRWKHU

DUHDVRIUHVHDUFKDQGFRXOGEHSURPLVLQJIRUDSSOLFDWLRQWRWKHFRQGXFWWKH$6:WDVNVLQWKH

ORFDOL]DWLRQSKDVH,QRQHH[DPSOH<XHHWDODSSOLHGWKH0HO)UHTXHQF\&HSVWUDO&RHIILFLHQW



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


0)&& ZKLFKLVXVXDOO\³XVHGWRH[WUDFWWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIVSHHFKVLJQDOV´DVDIHDWXUH

H[WUDFWLRQWHFKQLTXHSULRUWRFDWHJRUL]LQJWDUJHWVXVLQJ&11VDQG'%1VZLWKUHSRUWHG

DFFXUDFLHVRYHUWDUJHWW\SHVRIXSWRXVLQJXQVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJ

7KHGHWHFWDQGORFDOL]HSKDVHVKDYHFHQWUHGSULPDULO\DURXQGSDVVLYHVHQVRUVDVWKH\DUH

RIWHQXVHGWDFWLFDOO\WRWU\WRDYRLGDOHUWLQJWKHWDUJHWVXEPDULQHWRWKHSUHVHQFHRI$6:DVVHWV

:LWKWKHTXLHWLQJRIVXEPDULQHVDFWLYH621$5WHFKQLTXHVIRUGHWHFWLQJDQGORFDOL]LQJ

VXEPDULQHVPD\EHFRPHPRUHSURPLQHQW6LQFHDQLQGLYLGXDOVXEPDULQH¶VVL]HPDWHULDORI

FRQVWUXFWLRQDQGVXUIDFHFRPSRVLWLRQGRQRWYDU\RYHUWLPH0/V\VWHPVWRGHWHFWWKHPRYHU

EDFNJURXQGFOXWWHUDQGWRSRWHQWLDOO\HYHQFODVVLI\WKHPEDVHGRQVSHFLILFGLVWULEXWLRQVRIHQHUJ\

SDWWHUQVRIWDUJHWHFKRHVDUHSURPLVLQJDUHDRIUHVHDUFK$V\VWHPZRXOGQHHGVXIILFLHQWGDWD

DQGWUDLQLQJWRFRUUHODWHNQRZQDVSHFWDQGSRVLWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQUHODWLYHWRVHQVRUVWRYDULDWLRQV

LQWKHUHWXUQHFKRHV)RUH[DPSOH6HRHWDOFODLPWKDWUHWXUQVWUHQJWKVRIDFWLYHSLQJVFDQGLIIHU

E\RYHUDWOHDVWG%³DFFRUGLQJWRWKHDVSHFWDQJOHRIDVXEPDULQH´DFKDOOHQJHWKDWZRXOG

KDYHWREHRYHUFRPH&ODVVLILFDWLRQYLDDFWLYH621$5LVDQDUHDQRWW\SLFDOO\FDUULHGRXWE\

KXPDQRSHUDWRUVDQGSUHVHQWVDQRSSRUWXQLW\IRU0/V\VWHPVWRH[FHHGWKHFDSDELOLW\RIWKH

KXPDQVFXUUHQWO\FDUU\LQJRXWWKHWDVNVLQWKH'HWHFWDQG/RFDOL]HSKDVHV

Track

7KHWUDFNLQJSKDVHRI$6:W\SLFDOO\LQYROYHVPDLQWDLQLQJDFRXVWLFFRQWDFWRQDWDUJHW

KDYLQJDUHODWLYHO\KLJKFRQILGHQFHLQWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQRIWKHVXEPDULQHDQGLWVSRVLWLRQFRXUVH

DQGVSHHGDQGUHSRUWLQJWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQEDFNWRKLJKHUFRPPDQGDXWKRULWLHV,QWKHFDVHRIDQ



+DR<XH/LOXQ=KDQJ'H]KL:DQJ<RQJ[LDQ:DQJDQG=HQJTXDQ/X³7KH&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI8QGHUZDWHU
$FRXVWLF7DUJHWV%DVHGRQ'HHS/HDUQLQJ0HWKRGV´$GYDQFHVLQ,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPV5HVHDUFKYROXPH
$WODQWLV3UHVV-DQXDU\

,NVX6HR6HRQJZHRQ.LP<RXQJZRR5\X-XQJ\RQJ3DUNDQG'RQJ6HRJ+DQ³8QGHUZDWHU0RYLQJ
7DUJHW&ODVVLILFDWLRQ8VLQJ0XOWLOD\HU3URFHVVLQJ´

,ELG


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


HYDVLYHVXEPDULQHWKLVSKDVHZRXOGDUJXDEO\KDYHWKHPRVWSDUDOOHOVWRJDPHVOLNHFKHVVRU*R

ZLWKWDFWLFLDQVRQHDFKSODWIRUPWU\LQJWRRXWPDQHXYHUHDFKRWKHU,QHDUOLHUSKDVHVRI$6:

WKHUHLVDSDUDOOHOWRSOD\LQJFKHVVDJDLQVWDQRSSRQHQWZLWKRXWEHLQJDEOHWRGLUHFWO\REVHUYHWKH

ERDUGDVWKH$6:SODWIRUPGRHVQ¶WNQRZZKLFKSLHFHVWKHRSSRQHQWKDVLQWKHJDPHRUZKHUH

WKH\DUHORFDWHG%\WUDFNLQJSKDVHKRZHYHUWKHUHLVDJRRGHVWLPDWHRIZKHUHWKHVXEPDULQHLV

DQGZKHUHLWLVJRLQJ\HWWKHUHVWLOOPXVWEHGHGXFWLRQVPDGHDERXWZKDWWKHRSSRQHQW¶V

LQWHQWLRQVDUHSHUKDSVPRUHDNLQWRSRNHUDQRWKHUJDPHZKHUH$,KDVOHDUQHGWRGRPLQDWH

KXPDQRSSRQHQWV)RUVHQVRURSHUDWRUVWKLVSKDVHRIIHUVWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WRFROOHFWWKH

KLJKHVWILGHOLW\DFRXVWLFGDWDRQDFRQWDFWDQGPDNHWKHEHVWHVWLPDWHRILWVWDFWLFDORSHUDWLQJ

VWDWH

7UDFNLQJLVQRWFDUULHGRXWVROHO\E\SDVVLYHRUDFWLYHDFRXVWLFVHQVRURSHUDWRUV

,QIRUPDWLRQLVIXVHGIURPQRQDFRXVWLFVHQVRUVOLNH0$'5$'$5DQG(2,5DVZHOODV

LQIRUPDWLRQFRPLQJLQWRWKHSODWIRUPIURPFRRSHUDWLQJXQLWV7KHPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWLV

EURXJKWWRJHWKHUWKHEHWWHUWKHWDFWLFDOSLFWXUHDQGWKHKDUGHULWEHFRPHVIRUWKHVXEPDULQHWR

GHFHLYHRUHYDGHLWVKXQWHUV&XUUHQW$,V\VWHPVXVHELRPHWULFVLQWKHVDPHZD\WRHQVXUH

FRPSXWHUV\VWHPXVHUVDUHZKRWKH\FODLPWREHLQWHJUDWLQJ³LQSXWVIURPGLIIHUHQWPRGDOLWLHV´

VXFKDVYRLFHUHFRJQLWLRQILQJHUSULQWVNH\VWURNHSDWWHUQVDQGJDLWRIW\SLQJWRGHIHDWVSRRILQJ

DQGYHULI\DXVHU¶VLGHQWLW\0DVWHUFDUGIRUH[DPSOHFODLPVWRDXWKHQWLFDWHWUDQVDFWLRQV

³XVLQJELOOLRQVRIGDWDSRLQWVELRPHWULFVDQGDUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHWRUHFRJQL]HWKHXQLTXHQHVV

RIHYHU\LQGLYLGXDO´



:LOO.QLJKW³&KLQD¶V$,$ZDNHQLQJ´7HFKQRORJ\5HYLHZFRP2FWREHU
KWWSVZZZWHFKQRORJ\UHYLHZFRPFKLQDVDLDZDNHQLQJ

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

KWWSVZZZPDVWHUFDUGFDHQFDPHUFKDQWVVDIHW\VHFXULW\DXWKHQWLFDWLRQVHUYLFHVKWPO

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


7KHWUDFNLQJSKDVHKDVDWHPSRUDODVSHFWDVZHOO0XFKRIWKHFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKRQ

DFRXVWLFFODVVLILFDWLRQWDNHVDVQDSVKRWLQWLPHDQGFRPSDUHVLWDJDLQVWDGDWDEDVH$6:

WUDFNLQJEXLOGVQHZLQIRUPDWLRQRQWRSRIROG,IDWDUJHWFDQEHFODVVLILHGE\DQDFRXVWLFVRXUFH

RQHPRPHQWDQGWKHQFKDQJHVLWVRSHUDWLQJSDUDPHWHUVVXFKWKDWLWQRORQJHUGLVSOD\VWKRVH

FODVVLILFDWLRQVRXUFHVWKHQH[WPRPHQWDKXPDQFUHZLVDEOHWRFRQQHFWWKRVHWZRVWDWHVWR

ORJLFDOO\GHGXFHWKDWWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQRIWKHWDUJHWKDVQRWFKDQJHG7KLVZRXOGVHHPLQJO\SRVH

DFKDOOHQJHWRDV\VWHPWUDLQHGRQµVQLSSHWV¶RILQIRUPDWLRQODVWLQJRQO\DSRUWLRQRIDVHFRQG

$QDSSURDFKXVHGLQRWKHUDSSOLFDWLRQVVXFKDVVSHHFKRUODQJXDJHSURFHVVLQJDQGPXVLFJHQUH

FODVVLILFDWLRQFRXOGEHWRXVHUHFXUUHQWQHXUDOFRQQHFWLRQVZKLFK³DOORZWKHFXUUHQWVWDWHWR

GHSHQGQRWRQO\RQWKHFXUUHQWLQSXWEXWDOVRRQWKHQHWZRUNVWDWHLQWKHSUHYLRXVWLPHVWHSV

FDOFXODWHGIURPWKHSUHYLRXVLQSXWV´&KRLGHVFULEHVWKHFRPELQDWLRQRI&11VZLWK

5HFXUUHQW1HXUDO1HWZRUNV 511 WRFODVVLI\PXVLFDQGSURSRVHVWKDW511VDQG&11VGLIIHULQ

WKHLUDELOLW\WRVXPPDUL]HIHDWXUHVRYHUWLPHZLWKWKHFRQFOXVLRQWKDWDPRGHOWKDW³FDSWXUHV

ORFDOWLPHIUHTXHQF\UHODWLRQVKLSVLVPRUHHIIHFWLYHWKDQWKHRWKHUVZKLFKLJQRUHVORFDO

IUHTXHQF\UHODWLRQVKLSV´5<DQJHWDODWWHPSWWRDSSO\SDUDOOHOUHFXUUHQWFRQYROXWLRQDO

QHXUDOQHWZRUNV 35&11 WRRYHUFRPHVLPLODUQHJOHFWRI³VHTXHQWLDOUHODWLRQVKLSVIRXQGLQWKH

WLPHVHULHVGDWDZKLFKDUHVLJQLILFDQWIRUWLPHVHULHVGDWDFODVVLILFDWLRQ´:KHQH[WUDSRODWHG

IURPPXVLFWRVXEPDULQHDFRXVWLFVLJQDWXUHVDQ0/QHHGVWRKDYHDQ³XQGHUVWDQGLQJ´RIKRZD

VLJQDWXUHLVFUHDWHGRYHUWLPHLQWKHVDPHZD\DKXPDQDFRXVWLFLDQLVWDXJKWWRUHODWH

IUHTXHQFLHVEDFNWRVRXQGVRXUFHVDQGKRZWKH\UHODWHWRHDFKRWKHUFRQFXUUHQWO\DQGRYHUWLPH



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

&KRL.)D]HNDV*6DQGOHU0&KR.³&RQYROXWLRQDOUHFXUUHQWQHXUDOQHWZRUNVIRUPXVLF
FODVVLILFDWLRQ´,(((,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ$FRXVWLFV6SHHFKDQG6LJQDO3URFHVVLQJ ,&$663 SS±
,(((  

5XL<DQJ/LQ)HQJ+XLELQJ:DQJ-LDQLQJ<DRDQG6HQ/XR³3DUDOOHO5HFXUUHQW&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO
1HWZRUNV%DVHG0XVLF*HQUH&ODVVLILFDWLRQ0HWKRGIRU0RELOH'HYLFHV´,((($FFHVV9ROXPH
-DQXDU\

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


,QDGGLWLRQWRLGHQWLI\LQJDQGFODVVLI\LQJDWDUJHWGXULQJWKHWUDFNLQJSKDVHKDYLQJDQ

0/V\VWHPWKDWFRXOGFRQWLQXDOO\XVHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQWKHV\VWHPZDVFROOHFWLQJWRH[DPLQHWKH

RFHDQRJUDSKLFIHDWXUHVDQGPRGHOWKHPDJDLQVWWKHVRXQGVRXUFHVDFWXDOO\EHLQJHPLWWHGE\WKH

VXEPDULQHZRXOGDOORZIRURSWLPXPVHQVRUSODFHPHQWERWKIRUWUDFNLQJDQGGDWDFROOHFWLRQ$V

3HUNLQVSRLQWVRXWZKHQGHVFULELQJDLU$6:RSHUDWLRQV³OHVVH[SHULHQFHGDLUFUHZ«DUHRIWHQ

KHVLWDQWDQGRYHUO\FRQVHUYDWLYHZKHQHPSOR\LQJVRQREXR\V´ZKLFKKHFODLPV³KDVOHGWRORVW

FRQWDFWGXULQJG\QDPLFSKDVHVRIWKHSURVHFXWLRQ´:KLOHWKHVHGHFLVLRQVDUHW\SLFDOO\PDGH

E\WKHKXPDQ7DFWLFDO&RRUGLQDWRURQWKHSODWIRUPWKH\DUHKHDYLO\LQIOXHQFHGE\WKH

LQIRUPDWLRQSDVVHGE\WKHVHQVRURSHUDWRUV+DYLQJDQ$,0/WUDLQHGV\VWHPFDSDEOHRI

RSWLPL]LQJVHQVRUXVDJHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVEDVHGRQKLVWRULFDOGDWDDVZHOODVLQGHSWKDQDO\VLV

RIRFHDQRJUDSKLFFRQGLWLRQVLQUHDOWLPHFRXOGRSWLPL]HVRQREXR\XVDJHUDWHVPD[LPL]HRQ

VWDWLRQWLPHRIDLUDVVHWVH[SDQGVWDQGRIIUDQJHVIRUSODWIRUPVDQGPLQLPL]HWKHFKDQFHVRIORVW

FRQWDFW

Attack

,QWKHFDVHRIDGHOLEHUDWHO\SODQQHGODXQFKRIDWRUSHGRDFRXVWLFLDQVZLOOKDYHFODVVLILHG

WKHWDUJHWWRWKHPD[LPXPSRVVLEOHH[WHQWDQGDXWKRUL]DWLRQEDVHGRQWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQLVJLYHQ

E\WKHIRUFHFRPPDQGHU)RUDQ0/WRFRQWULEXWHWRWKLVSKDVHLWFRXOGUHO\RQWHFKQLTXHVXVHG

LQµYRLFHDXWKHQWLFDWLRQ¶SULRUWRGHSOR\LQJDZHDSRQ$GYDQFHGYRLFHDSSOLFDWLRQVXVHVSHHFK

DQGFRQVLGHU³HDFKZRUGVRXQGWREHFRPSRVHGRIWZRVHWVRIIDFWRUVWKRVHWKDWUHODWHWRWKH

ZRUGDQGWKRVHWKDWUHODWHWRWKHVSHDNHU´7KHILUVWLVXVHGE\VSHHFKUHFRJQLWLRQVRIWZDUH

ZKLFKVLPLODUO\WRWKHH[DPSOHRIIDFLDOUHFRJQLWLRQGLVFXVVHGHDUOLHUZRXOGEHUHODWHGWRW\SHV

RIV\VWHPVWKDWFUHDWHVRXQGVRQDVXEPDULQHVXFKDVSURSHOOHUVRUHQJLQHV6SHDNHU



:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


DXWKHQWLFDWLRQXVHVWKHVHFRQGW\SHRIIDFWRUVZKLFKFRXOGEHUHODWHGWRWKHVSHFLILF

FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVRXQGVJHQHUDWHGE\WKDWHTXLSPHQWWRILQJHUSULQWDVSHFLILFKXOORID

VXEPDULQHW\SH6LPLODUWRKRZDKXPDQFRXOGUHFRJQL]HDYRLFHWRDFHUWDLQGHJUHHEXWFRXOG

QRWEHUHOLHGRQWRDEVROXWHO\DXWKHQWLFDWHEDVHGRQLW$,FRXOGH[WUDFWIHDWXUHVWKDWWKHKXPDQ

QHYHUFRXOGWRSURYLGHFHUWDLQW\DERXWWKHWDUJHWDQGLGHDOO\DOOHYLDWHDQ\FRQFHUQVRIXVHRI$,

LQPLOLWDU\NLQHWLFDFWLYLW\

,QWKHFDVHRIDQXUJHQWUHVSRQVHWRDQHQHP\DWWDFNVXFKDVWKHILULQJRIWRUSHGRHVDQ

0/V\VWHPWDXJKWWRLGHQWLI\WRUSHGRDFRXVWLFVLJQDWXUHVFRXOGSURYLGHKLJKILGHOLW\LQIRUPDWLRQ

RQWKHW\SHRIZHDSRQEHLQJXVHGLWVRULJLQDQGWKHEHVWHYDVLYHPDQHXYHUVEDVHGRQLWVUXQQLQJ

SURILOHDQGSRVLWLRQDOOZLWKRXWEHLQJGHJUDGHGE\WKHQDWXUDOVWUHVVWKDWDKXPDQRSHUDWRUZRXOG

IHHOZKHQDWRUSHGRLVGHWHFWHGLQWKHRFHDQ

Pre-Mission

3ULRUWRH[HFXWLQJDPLVVLRQKXPDQDFRXVWLFRSHUDWRUVDUHSURYLGHGLQIRUPDWLRQDERXW

WKHZDWHUPDVVHVLQWKHRSHUDWLQJDUHDDQGWKHODWHVWLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHSRWHQWLDOWDUJHW

LQFOXGLQJUHFHQWDFRXVWLFLQIRUPDWLRQJDLQHGE\RWKHUSURVHFXWLQJSODWIRUPV/LNHZLVHDQ0/

V\VWHPZRXOGQHHGWREHXSORDGHGZLWKWKHPRVWXSWRGDWHLQIRUPDWLRQRQEDWK\PHWU\DQG

WDUJHWVLJQDWXUHVSULRUWRWKHPLVVLRQ)RU0/FDUHIXOFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIKRZWKLVZRXOGRFFXU

PXVWWDNHSODFH

,QWKHILHOGRI1DWXUDO/DQJXDJH3URFHVVLQJLWZDVIRXQGWKDWXVLQJSUHGHILQHGGDWDEDVHV

WRUHSUHVHQWUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQZRUGVLQDODQJXDJHKDGVRPHVXFFHVVEXWWKDWLWZDVEHWWHUWR

KDYHWKHV\VWHP³OHDUQKLHUDUFKLHVDWGLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIDEVWUDFWLRQ´GLUHFWO\IURPUHODWLRQVKLSV

ZLWKLQWKHGDWDZDVPRUHHIIHFWLYHWKDQVLPSO\XSORDGLQJDGDWDEDVH$Q0/V\VWHPIRU



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


DFRXVWLFVZRXOGQHHGWREDODQFHRSWLPXPSHUIRUPDQFHZLWKWKHDELOLW\WRWXUQQHZLQIRUPDWLRQ

DURXQGTXLFNO\

Post-Mission

7KLVSKDVHRIWKHPLVVLRQIURPDQRSHUDWRUSRLQWRIYLHZHQWDLOVUHSRUWLQJRIDQRPDOLHV

DQGPDOIXQFWLRQVWRPDLQWHQDQFHSHUVRQQHODQGWKHWUDQVIHURIUHFRUGHGPLVVLRQGDWDIURP

YDULRXVVXEV\VWHPVEHLQJGHOLYHUHGWRPLVVLRQVXSSRUWSHUVRQQHOIRUH[WUDFWLRQDQGDQDO\VLV

7KLVVWDJHW\SLFDOO\LQFOXGHVDLUFUHZGHEULHILQJPLVVLRQVXSSRUWSHUVRQQHORQVLJQLILFDQWHYHQWV

DQGFRPSOHWLQJSRVWPLVVLRQUHSRUWV$Q0/V\VWHPZRXOGQHHGWREHFDSDEOHRIWUDQVIHUULQJDOO

PLVVLRQLQIRUPDWLRQWRSRVWPLVVLRQIDFLOLWLHV

3RVWPLVVLRQDQDO\VLVRIDFRXVWLFGDWDLVFXUUHQWO\DODERXULQWHQVLYHSURFHVVDQGLV

FDUULHGRXWWRFRQILUPWKHRSHUDWRUV¶DVVHVVPHQWRIWKHLUWDUJHWRUWRGHWHFWPLVVHGFRQWDFWWKDW

RSHUDWRUVFRXOGKDYHH[SORLWHG:HUHDQ0/V\VWHPWRUHSODFHKXPDQRSHUDWRUVRQ$6:

SODWIRUPVDQGJLYHQWKHVKHHUDPRXQWRILQIRUPDWLRQH[SHFWHGWREHFROOHFWHGE\VHQVRUVRQDOO

IXWXUHSODWIRUPVLWZRXOGEHORJLFDOWRH[SHFWWKDWWKHWDVNVRISHUVRQQHODWJURXQGVHJPHQWV

VXFKDVH[WUDFWLRQDQGDQDO\VLVRIPLVVLRQGDWDFRXOGDOVREHDXJPHQWHGRUUHSODFHGE\0/

V\VWHPV&RQILUPDWLRQRIWDFWLFVLQFOXGLQJWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRUVHDUFKDQGWUDFNLQJPHWKRGV

FRXOGLQWKHIXWXUHEHFDUULHGRXWE\0/V\VWHPVDQGFRXOGUDSLGO\VFUHHQPLVVLRQLQIRUPDWLRQ

DQGIHHGEDFNLQWHOOLJHQFHPRUHTXLFNO\WRIROORZRQHYHQWVWRPD[LPL]HWKHFKDQFHVRIVXFFHVV

RQVXEVHTXHQWPLVVLRQV

7KLVFKDSWHUGUHZSDUDOOHOVEHWZHHQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRI0/WRVHYHUDOILHOGVXQUHODWHGWR

$6:DVZHOODVLQYHVWLJDWHGUHFHQWUHVHDUFKLQWR0/IRURFHDQDFRXVWLFVSHFLILFWDVNV,Q

UHFRJQL]LQJWKDWWKHDGRSWLRQRI0/WHFKQLTXHVWRWKHWDVNVRIDFRXVWLFVHQVRURSHUDWRUVERWKDW


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


JURXQGVWDWLRQVDQGRQWKHWDFWLFDOSODWIRUPVLVDFKLHYDEOHHLWKHULQWHUPVRIH[LVWLQJRU

HPHUJLQJFDSDELOLW\DVZHOODVWKHDELOLW\WRILWVXIILFLHQWSURFHVVLQJSRZHURQUHODWLYHO\VPDOO

RSHUDWLRQDOSODWIRUPVOLNHDLUFUDIWWKHUHDUHVHYHUDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVWKDWPXVWEHPDGHEHIRUH

WU\LQJWRDSSO\WKHWHFKQRORJ\LQDUHDOWLPHVHWWLQJ7KHIROORZLQJFKDSWHUZLOOGLVFXVVVRPHRI

WKRVHWDFWLFDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVIRUWKHDGRSWLRQRI0/WRHQKDQFHWKHFRQGXFWRI$6:


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 5: TACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS

&KDSWHURXWOLQHGWKHGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQ$,DQG0/ZLWKWKHIRUPHUFRQVLGHUHGDEOHWR

UHSOLFDWHDKXPDQRSHUDWRU¶VDELOLW\WRFDUU\RXWDEUHDGWKRIKLJKOHYHOFRJQLWLYHWDVNVDQGPDNH

FRPSOH[GHFLVLRQVDQGWKHODWWHUEHLQJPRUHRIDWDVNVSHFLILFDSSOLFDWLRQ IRUH[DPSOHSOD\LQJ

FKHVVEXWQRWRWKHUJDPHV :KLOHDUJXDEO\DFKLHYDEOHRQHGD\ZLWKDFRPSOHWHO\DXWRQRPRXV

SODWIRUPDLPLQJIRUDV\VWHPDVEURDGO\FDSDEOHDVLPSOLHGE\$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHLQFOXGLQJ

GLUHFWLQJ7DFWLFVPDQDJLQJDFUHZDSSO\LQJDOOUXOHVDQGUHJXODWLRQVDQGLQQXPHUDEOHRWKHU

WDVNVFDUULHGRXWE\KXPDQVRQ$6:SODWIRUPVZRXOGFHUWDLQO\EHXQDFKLHYDEOHLQDVLQJOHOHDS

IURPFXUUHQWPDQQHGSODWIRUPVWRWKHQH[WJHQHUDWLRQ&RQYHUVHO\DVRXWOLQHGLQWKHSUHYLRXV

FKDSWHUWHDFKLQJDFRPSXWHUWRFRQGXFWVRPHRIWKHUHSHDWDEOHERXQGHGWDVNVFXUUHQWO\

SHUIRUPHGE\KXPDQVLVFHUWDLQO\ZLWKLQWKHVFRSHRIFXUUHQWFRPSXWLQJSRZHUDQGPDFKLQH

OHDUQLQJWHFKQRORJ\OHYHOV,QFRQVLGHULQJZKHWKHU0/RUXOWLPDWHO\$,FRXOGEHDGRSWHGRQ

$6:SODWIRUPVWKHUHLVPRUHWKDQVLPSO\FDUU\LQJRXWDQDO\VLVRQDFWLYHDQGSDVVLYH621$5

UHWXUQV7KLVFKDSWHUZLOOH[SORUHWRSLFVUHODWHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWDFWLFVRYHUFRPLQJELDV

LQGDWDKXPDQIDFWRUVZKLFKLQIOXHQFHWDFWLFDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJWUXVWRIDOJRULWKPV¶RXWSXWVDQG

WKHGHVLJQRIFRPPXQLFDWLRQV\VWHPVDOORIZKLFKZRXOGQHHGWREHWKRURXJKO\H[DPLQHG

EHIRUHDWWHPSWLQJWRLQWHJUDWHDQ0/VHQVRURSHUDWLRQV\VWHPZLWKKXPDQFUHZVLQDWDFWLFDO

HQYLURQPHQW

+XPDQRSHUDWRUVXVHWKHLUH[SHULHQFHDQGMXGJPHQWWRGHWHUPLQHZKDWLQIRUPDWLRQWR

SDVVWRWDFWLFDOFRRUGLQDWRUVDQGZKHQVXFKDVSRVLWLRQFRXUVHRUVSHHGXSGDWHVRUUHILQHPHQWV

WRFODVVLILFDWLRQEDVHGRQWKHVRXQGVRXUFHVEHLQJHPLWWHG$QRWKHULPSRUWDQWGXW\ZKLFKPD\

EHSHUIRUPHGLQIUHTXHQWO\LQYROYHVUHFRJQL]LQJUHOHYDQWLQIRUPDWLRQZKLFKVKRXOGEHSDVVHGWR

FRRSHUDWLQJSODWIRUPVVXFKDVDQDFRXVWLFYXOQHUDELOLW\WKDWFRXOGEHH[SORLWHGRULQIRUPDWLRQ


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


RQYXOQHUDELOLWLHVRIIULHQGO\VKLSVVXFKDVLQGLFDWLRQVWKDWDSURSHOOHUKDVEHFRPHµIRXOHG¶E\

GHEULVRUWKDWWKHVKLSLVJHQHUDWLQJH[FHVVQRLVHGXHWRGDPDJHRUPDFKLQHU\UXQQLQJVWDWH$

0/V\VWHPZRXOGKDYHWREHDSSURDFKLQJWKHGHILQLWLRQRIµLQWHOOLJHQW¶WREHDEOHWRGHWHUPLQH

WKHW\SHVRIDQRPDOLHVWKDWVKRXOGEHFDSWXUHGDQGUHSRUWHGWRRWKHUSODWIRUPVZKHWKHUYLDYRLFH

RUVRPHIRUPRIDFRXVWLFGDWDOLQNEXWLWLVQRWXQIDWKRPDEOHWKDWLWFRXOGEHWUDLQHGWRGRVR

,QJDPHVZHVDZWKDW³WKLQNLQJPDFKLQHVDUHFDSDEOHRIRULJLQDOWKRXJKW´VRPHWLPHV

FRPLQJXSZLWKQRYHOVWUDWHJLHVWRVROYHSUREOHPVRUFRPSOHWHWKHLUWDVNV,QVRPH

DSSURDFKHVWKLVFRQVLVWVRIWKHV\VWHPEHLQJWUDLQHGWRVHOHFWPRYHVDQGDWWKHHQGRIWKHJDPH

HYDOXDWLQJWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIHDFKLQWHUPHGLDWHPRYHWRZLQQLQJRUORVLQJWKHJDPH:LWK

WKHSUHGLFWHGWUDQVLWLRQDZD\IURPµEOXHZDWHU¶$6:DQGWRZDUGOLWWRUDOUHJLRQVWKH³JOREDO

WUHQGWRZDUGVVPDOOHUEXWPRUHOHWKDOIOHHWV´DQGWKHVLJQLILFDQWDGYDQFHPHQWRIFDSDELOLWLHVOLNH

$6:KHOLFRSWHUGLSSLQJ621$5VWDFWLFVIRUFRRSHUDWLYH$6:KDYHQRWEHHQXSGDWHGLQ

GRFWULQHWRUHIOHFWWKHVHQHZFDSDELOLWLHV:KLOHQRWGLUHFWO\UHODWHGWRWKHWDVNVRIVHQVRU

RSHUDWRUVKDYLQJ0/V\VWHPVOHDUQKRZWR³SOD\WKHJDPH´RI$6:FRXOGDOORZIRU

RSWLPL]DWLRQRIFRRUGLQDWHG$6:EHWZHHQSODWIRUPVDQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIQRYHO

H[SHULPHQWDOWDFWLFVWKDWKXPDQVPD\QHYHUFRQVLGHU

$FFRUGLQJWR3HUNLQVWKHTXLHWLQJRIVXEPDULQHVKDVUHVXOWHGLQWDUJHWVWKDW³PD\EHVR

TXLHWWKDWWKHEDFNJURXQGRFHDQQRLVHLVORXGHUWKDQWKHVRXUFHWKH$6:IRUFHLVDWWHPSWLQJWR

GHWHFW´7KLVFRXOGGULYHFKDQJHVLQWDFWLFDOGHYHORSPHQWZLWK0/V\VWHPVWXQHGWRLGHQWLI\

WKHVH³KROHV´LQVRXQGVLQWKHRFHDQZKHUHWKH\PD\EHDEOHWRH[SORLWWKHTXLHWQHVVRID



$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´*DUHWK(YDQV³&DWDQG0RXVH7KH
$UWRI6XEPDULQH'HWHFWLRQ´1DYDO7HFKQRORJ\FRP-XQHKWWSVZZZQDYDO
WHFKQRORJ\FRPIHDWXUHVIHDWXUH

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


VXEPDULQHE\KRZLWFDXVHVDGURSLQDPELHQWQRLVHDORQJDFHUWDLQEHDULQJ7KLVGLVFUHSDQF\

FRXOGEHPLVVHGE\DKXPDQRSHUDWRUZKRVHV\VWHPPD\QRWEHRSWLPL]HGWRVHDUFKIRUWKLV

FKDUDFWHULVWLFRUZKRLVQRWDFWLYHO\VFUXWLQL]LQJKLVVHQVRUVIRUWKLVSKHQRPHQRQ:KLOHD

KXPDQRSHUDWRUFDQQRWSK\VLFDOO\PRQLWRUVHYHUDOK\GURSKRQHVDWRQFHDQGPXVWLQVWHDGF\FOH

EHWZHHQWKHPDQ0/V\VWHPFRXOGH[DPLQHDOOVHQVRUVVLPXOWDQHRXVO\WRORRNIRUFOXHVWRWKH

SUHVHQFHRIDWDUJHWDQGFRXOGEHWUDLQHGWRDGYLVHRQRSWLPXPSRVLWLRQLQJRIVHQVRUVEDVHGRQ

WKHRFHDQRJUDSKLFSURILOHWRFDUU\RXWDWDVNOLNHILQGLQJTXLHWHUWKDQWKHRFHDQWDUJHWV7KHVH

WDFWLFVFRXOGHLWKHUFRQVLVWRILGHQWLI\LQJVFHQDULRVDQGDSSO\LQJSUHGHWHUPLQHGWDFWLFVDVZDV

GRQHZLWKHDUO\FRPSXWHUL]HGYHUVLRQVRIFKHVVRUFRXOGEHLQWKHIRUPRIDVLPXODWLRQVFDUULHG

RXWRQVWDWLRQWRDVVHVVHVDOWHUQDWHRSWLRQVLQUHDOWLPHWRGHWHUPLQHZKLFKWDFWLFVWRHPSOR\

EHIRUHEHJLQQLQJDOLYHVHDUFK

$QDUHDZKHUHQHZWDFWLFVDUHXQGHUGHYHORSPHQWDQGZKLFKZLOOQRGRXEWEHKHDYLO\

LQIOXHQFHGE\0/LV/RZ)UHTXHQF\0XOWL6WDWLF$FWLYH 06$ VHDUFKZKLFKLVFDUULHGRXW

WKURXJKDQHWZRUNRIWUDQVPLWWHUVDQGUHFHLYHUVZKLFKLQWHUDFWWRDFKLHYHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORQJHU

GHWHFWLRQUDQJHVDVFRPSDUHGWRROGHUWUDGLWLRQDOSDVVLYHRUKLJKIUHTXHQF\DFWLYHVRQREXR\V

6LQFH³UHFHLYHUEXR\VDUHQRWFROODWHGZLWKWKHVRXUFHEXR\V´WKHVXEPDULQH³FDQQRWNQRZ

ZKLFKGLUHFWLRQWRWXUQWRDYRLGWKHSDWWHUQ´06$DOVRJLYHVSODWIRUPVWKHDELOLW\WRFRYHU

ODUJHUDUHDVHQKDQFLQJDFRXVWLFVHDUFKDVZHOODVWUDFNLQJDQGDWWDFNFDSDELOLW\:KLOH0/$,

FRXOGPDQDJHWKHWLPLQJDQGFRUUHODWLQJRILQIRUPDWLRQDFURVVPXOWLSOHUHFHLYHUVDVZHOODV

RSWLPL]HWKHSRVLWLRQLQJRIVHQVRUVEDVHGRQRFHDQRJUDSK\DQGVRXQGUHWXUQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRI

WKHVXEPDULQH DVSHFW PXFKRIWKH&DQDGLDQUHVHDUFKLQWRWDFWLFDOGHYHORSPHQWRI06$VHHPV



:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WRLQYROYHH[SHULPHQWDWLRQXVLQJPDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHOVKHDYLO\LQIOXHQFHGE\LQSXWVIURPKXPDQ

H[SHUWV¶H[SHULHQFHDQGLQWXLWLRQ

$VKDVEHHQZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGLQRWKHUILHOGVRIVWXG\WKHUHKDYHEHHQQXPHURXVLQVWDQFHV

RIELDVEHLQJXQLQWHQWLRQDOO\LQSXWLQWR$,V\VWHPVE\SURJUDPPHUV:KHWKHUVHHQLQYRLFH

UHFRJQLWLRQVRIWZDUHEHLQJPRUHOLNHO\WRDFFXUDWHO\UHFRJQLVHPDOHVSHHFKDQGXOWLPDWHO\

WKUHDWHQLQJVDIHW\LIDGRSWHGLQDFDUZLWKDIHPDOHGULYHURUDOJRULWKPVODQGLQJLQQRFHQWSHRSOH

LQMDLORULQIOXHQFLQJWKHLUVHQWHQFHVELDVLQWUDLQLQJ$,V\VWHPVLVDVHULRXVFRQFHUQ$VVHHQ

LQWKHXVHRIGHHSOHDUQLQJLQJDPHVVRPHWLPHVDOORZLQJWKHV\VWHPWROHDUQZLWKRXWVXSHUYLVLRQ

³PD\DFWXDOO\EHEHWWHUVLQFHWKHUHZLOOQRWEHDQ\WHDFKHUELDV´/LNHZLVHWKHGHYHORSPHQW

RIWDFWLFVFDQEHQHILWWKHPRUHWKH0/V\VWHPLVIUHHWRJHQHUDWHLWVRZQVROXWLRQV

 7KHLPSDFWVRIIDWLJXHDQGRWKHUSK\VLRORJLFDOIDFWRUVZDVGLVFXVVHGLQWKH3UREOHP

)UDPLQJFKDSWHU$QRWKHUDVSHFWRIWKLVIDFWRULVWKDWWKHGHVLJQRISODWIRUPVOLNHDLUFUDIWVKLSV

DQGVXEPDULQHVDUHUHVWULFWHGE\WKHQHHGIRUD³GHJUHHRIFRPIRUWWROHVVHQWKHFUHZ¶VIDWLJXH

DQGWKXVHQKDQFHWKHLUHIILFLHQF\´LQWKHFRQGXFWRIWKHLUGXWLHV7KHDGGLWLRQRI³DGHTXDWH

UHVWDUUDQJHPHQWVIRURIIZDWFKFUHZPHPEHUV´³HIILFLHQWVRXQGSURRILQJ´DQGDQ\QXPEHURI

RWKHUDPHQLWLHVVXFKDVPRUHFRPIRUWDEOHVKLSDFFRPPRGDWLRQVPHDQVWKDWSODWIRUPVQHHGWREH

ODUJHUDQGKHDYLHUDQGPD\WKXVEHUHVWULFWHGLQWKHLUPDQHXYHUDELOLW\$6:SODWIRUPVDOVR

VRPHWLPHVGHWHUPLQHWKHLURSHUDWLQJSDUDPHWHUVVXFKDVDOWLWXGHIRUDQDLUFUDIWRUKRZPDQ\



&ULVWLQD'67ROOHIVHQ³0XOWLVWDWLF3ODQQLQJ5HTXLUHPHQWV´'HIHQFH5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW&DQDGD
0D\

&DUROLQH&ULDGR3HUH]³7KH'HDGO\7UXWK$ERXWD:RUOG%XLOW)RU0HQ±)URP6WDE9HVWVWR&DU&UDVKHV´
7KH*XDUGLDQFRP)HEUXDU\KWWSVZZZWKHJXDUGLDQFRPOLIHDQGVW\OHIHEWUXWKZRUOGEXLOWIRU
PHQFDUFUDVKHV$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS
+XPDQLW\.DUHQ+DR$,LV6HQGLQJ3HRSOHWR-DLO±DQG*HWWLQJLW:URQJ0,77HFKQRORJ\5HYLHZ
-DQXDU\KWWSVZZZWHFKQRORJ\UHYLHZFRPDOJRULWKPVFULPLQDOMXVWLFHDL

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

1$720$625

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


VWDWLRQVDUHPDQQHGRQDVKLSLQDFHUWDLQVHDVWDWHEDVHGRQLPSDFWVRQFUHZDELOLW\WRFDUU\RXW

WKHLUWDVNVZKLFKJHQHUDWHVDNLQGRIKXPDQELDVLQGHYHORSLQJWDFWLFV:LWKRXWUHVWULFWLRQVGXH

WRHLWKHUFUHZFRPIRUWGHVLJQRIWKHSODWIRUPRUQXPEHURISHRSOHRQERDUG0/V\VWHPVZRXOG

OLNHO\JHQHUDWHWDFWLFVXQIDWKRPDEOHWRKXPDQRSHUDWRUV:KLOH$,V\VWHPVGRQRWKDYHWR

FRQVLGHULPSDFWVRIVWUHVVDQGRWKHUSK\VLRORJLFDOIDFWRUVZKHQSUREOHPVROYLQJKXPDQIDFWRUV

PXVWVWLOOEHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWDQGWKHEDODQFHEHWZHHQWKHLUQHHGVDQGWDFWLFVJHQHUDWHGE\DQ

0/V\VWHPFRXOGUHVXOWLQPRUHFUHDWLYLW\DQGZLGHURSHUDWLQJHQYHORSHV

$QRWKHUOLPLWDWLRQWRWKHXVHRI0/JHQHUDWLRQRI$6:WDFWLFVLVWKHKHVLWDWLRQWRWUXVW

µEODFNER[HV¶WKDWFDOFXODWHRXWSXWVEXWJLYHQRLQGLFDWLRQRIKRZWKH\FDPHWRWKHLU

FRQFOXVLRQV,QGLVFXVVLQJPHGLFLQHEXWHTXDOO\DSSOLFDEOHWRWKHVXEMHFWRIWKLV'537RSRO

GHVFULEHVD³OHJLWLPDWHZRUU\DERXWDGRSWLRQRIQHZWHFKQRORJLHVEHIRUHWKH\KDYHEHHQ

DGHTXDWHO\YHWWHGDQGYDOLGDWHGRUSURYHQWREHFRVWHIIHFWLYHDQGLGHDOO\FRVWVDYLQJ´+LJK

SURILOHLQFLGHQWVRISUREOHPVZLWK$,UHODWHGWRVDIHW\LQFOXGLQJVHOIGULYLQJFDUVUXQQLQJUHG

OLJKWVVXUHO\KDYHQRWDOOHYLDWHGWKHVHZRUULHV

/D\WRQDUJXHVWKDWQH[WJHQHUDWLRQDLUFUDIW³QHHGHOHFWURQLFRUGHURIEDWWOHGDWDWKDW

LQFOXGHVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGHOHFWURQLFVLJQDWXUHVRIV\VWHPVOLNHO\WREHHQFRXQWHUHGZKLOH

RQRSHUDWLRQV«WRDOORZDLUFUDIWV\VWHPVWREHDEOHWRLGHQWLI\IULHQGO\QHXWUDODQGDGYHUVDU\

V\VWHPVZKHQDLUERUQH´7KLVFRXOGEHDFKLHYHGE\VWRULQJODUJHDPRXQWVRIGDWDRQERDUG

ZLWKDGYDQFHGVHDUFKWRROVRUGDWDEDVHORRNXSIXQFWLRQV)RURSHUDWRUVZKRDUHQRZXVHGWR

FDUU\LQJVPDUWGHYLFHVLQWKHLUSRFNHWVZKLFKFDQFDUU\RXWFRPSOH[WDVNVXVLQJ$, VXFKDV

VSHHFKUHFRJQLWLRQ KRZHYHULWGRHVQRWVHHPXQUHDVRQDEOHWRKDYHDV\VWHPWKDWFDQ³DFFHVV



7ROOHIVHQ&ULVWLQD'6³0XOWLVWDWLF3ODQQLQJ5HTXLUHPHQWV´

(ULF7RSRO7KH&UHDWLYH'HVWUXFWLRQRI0HGLFLQH[L

$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

3HWHU/D\WRQ)LIWK*HQHUDWLRQ$LU:DUIDUH

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WKHFORXGIURPDQ\ZKHUHWRH[FKDQJHGDWDRUUHTXHVWFRPSXWDWLRQWKDWLVWRRODUJHRUFRPSOH[WR

GRORFDOO\´8VLQJWKHVSHHFKUHFRJQLWLRQH[DPSOHDVPDUWSKRQHGRHVQRWGRWKHSURFHVVRQ

WKHGHYLFHLQVWHDGLW³FDSWXUHVWKHDFRXVWLFGDWDH[WUDFWVWKHEDVLFIHDWXUHVDQGVHQGVWKHPWR

WKHFORXG´DQGWKH³DFWXDOUHFRJQLWLRQLVGRQHLQWKHFORXGDQGWKHUHVXOWLVVHQWEDFNWRWKH

SKRQH´

+DYLQJGDWDWUDQVPLWWHGRYHUDQHWZRUNIRUDJURXQGEDVHG$,WRFRQGXFWWKHDQDO\VLV

DQGVHQGLQJLWEDFNPD\EHQHFHVVDU\JLYHQWKHVPDOOVL]HRIVRPHSODWIRUPVDQGWKHSK\VLFDO

VSDFHWKDWZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGIRUFRPSXWHUVWRFDUU\RXWDGYDQFHG$6:FDOFXODWLRQV$OVR

EHQHILFLDOZRXOGEHUHGXQGDQF\DQGDELOLW\WRVKDUHGDWDDPRQJSODWIRUPVLQUHDOWLPHZKLFK

PD\EHUHTXLUHGIRUWDVNVOLNHPXOWLVWDWLFDFWLYHSURFHVVLQJDQGWDFWLFDOFRRUGLQDWLRQLQVKDUHG

RSHUDWLQJDUHDV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHDWUH$6:LVRIWHQFDUULHGRXWLQUHPRWHRSHUDWLQJDUHDV

DQGUHDOWLPHSURFHVVLQJZRXOGUHTXLUHVLJQLILFDQWEDQGZLGWKDQGZRXOGEHVXEMHFWWRSRWHQWLDO

MDPPLQJRULQWHUFHSWLRQRIGDWDWUDQVPLVVLRQV*LYHQWKHQHHGIRUWKHV\VWHPVWRZRUNLQ

FRQWHVWHGHQYLURQPHQWZKHUHGDWDIORZPD\QRWEHUHOLDEOHDVHOIFRQWDLQHGVROXWLRQWRWKHUHDO

WLPHSURFHVVLQJPD\EHUHTXLUHG7KLVFRXOGEHFRPSOHPHQWHGE\UHDOWLPHXSGDWHVWRDQGIURP

DFHQWUDOGDWDEDVHEHLQJEURDGFDVWDVWKHQHWZRUNVDOORZIRUH[DPSOHWRSURYLGHXSGDWHVRQ

SUHYLRXVO\XQVHHQRSHUDWLQJUHJLPHVIRUDVXESDUWLFXODUO\XVHIXOWUDFNLQJVRXUFHVRUVRXQGV

LQGLFDWLQJVHUYLFHDELOLW\LVVXHVZKLFKFRXOGEHH[SORLWDEOHGXULQJWKHPLVVLRQ:KHWKHUKRXVHG

RQERDUGDQGSRZHUHGE\VLJQLILFDQWO\PRUHSURFHVVLQJSRZHUEHLQJKRXVHGLQPXFKVPDOOHU



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

,ELG

-RVHSK7UHYLWKLFN³5XVVLDQ6XEPDULQHV*HWWLQJ&RXQWHUPHDVXUHVWKDW-DP6RQREXR\V'URSSHGE\(QHP\
$LUFUDIW´7KH:DU]RQH0DUFKKWWSVZZZWKHGULYHFRPWKHZDU]RQHUXVVLDQVXEPDULQHVJHWWLQJ
HOHFWURQLFZDUIDUHEXR\VWKDWMDPVRQREXR\VGURSSHGE\HQHP\DLUFUDIW


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


VSDFHVRUIDFLOLWDWHGE\XVHRIDµFRPEDWFORXG¶SODWIRUPVZLOOEHDEOHWRFROOHFWDQGOHYHUDJH

PDVVLYHDPRXQWVRIGDWDZKLFKZLOOXOWLPDWHO\LPSDFWWKHLUWDFWLFDOHPSOR\PHQW

7KLVFKDSWHUH[SORUHGIDFWRUVUHODWHGWRFDUU\LQJRXW$6:LQDUHDOZRUOGHQYLURQPHQW

DERDUGDQ$6:SODWIRUPEXWZDVVLQJOHVLGHGLQWKHVHQVHWKDWLWRQO\FRQVLGHUHGWKH

SHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHKXQWHU6LQFHWKHKXQWHGVXEPDULQHVSOD\DNH\UROHLQZKHWKHUDQ$6:

SURVHFXWLRQZLOOEHVXFFHVVIXORUQRWWKHQH[WFKDSWHUEHGHYRWHGWRH[DPLQLQJLQLWLDWLYHVRQWKH

SDUWRI&DQDGD¶VDGYHUVDULHV







‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 6: ADVERSARY INITIATIVES

 6XEPDULQHLQYHQWRULHVDPRQJPDQ\QDWLRQVDUHJURZLQJLQFOXGLQJRXUKLVWRULFDO$6:

DGYHUVDULHVDQGPDQ\QDWLRQVDJDLQVWZKRPZHFRXOGSRWHQWLDOO\EHLQFRQIOLFW7KHVXEPDULQHV

EHLQJSURGXFHGRUDFTXLUHGE\WKRVHFRXQWULHVDUHQRWRQO\JURZLQJLQQXPEHUEXWLQTXDOLW\DV

³DOPRVWDOOQDWLRQVLQSRVVHVVLRQRIVXEPDULQHVKDYHSXWIRUWKVLJQLILFDQWUHVRXUFHVWRPDNH

VXEPDULQHVDQGWRUSHGRHVRSHUDWHPRUHTXLHWO\´$WWKHVDPHWLPHWKDWVXEPDULQHVDUH

EHFRPLQJOHVVGHWHFWDEOHYLDWUDGLWLRQDOSDVVLYHDFRXVWLFPHWKRGVQDWLRQVVXFKDV5XVVLDDQG

&KLQDDUHLQFUHDVLQJWKHUHJXODULW\DQGUDQJHRIWKHLUVXEPDULQHSDWUROV7KLVFKDSWHU

KLJKOLJKWVVRPHRIWKHLULQLWLDWLYHVWRDGYDQFHWKHLUVXEPDULQHFDSDELOLWLHV

Russia

$VPHQWLRQHGLQWKHLQWURGXFWLRQWRWKLVSDSHUIROORZLQJWKHFRQFOXVLRQRIWKH&ROG:DU

RXWRIDUHDGHSOR\PHQWRI5XVVLDQVXEPDULQHVZDVYLUWXDOO\QRQH[LVWHQW2YHUWKHODVWGHFDGH

KRZHYHUWKDWWUHQGKDVUHYHUVHGZLWKDPRGHUQL]HG5XVVLDQ1DY\DQGD³OHDGHUVKLSZLOOLQJWR

XVHLWWRDFKLHYHQDWLRQDOVWUDWHJLFREMHFWLYHV´DQGGHPRQVWUDWHDVWURQJDQGDJLOHPLOLWDU\

6WDUWLQJZLWKWKHGHSOR\PHQWRIWZR$NXODFODVVVXEPDULQHVWRWKHHDVWHUQVHDERDUG

RIWKH86PDQ\RIWKHVHVXEPDULQHGHSOR\PHQWVZKLFKZRXOGKDYHLQWKHSDVWRFFXUUHG

ZLWKRXWWKHNQRZOHGJHRIWKHSXEOLFDUHQRZKHDGOLQHQHZV7KLVLQFUHDVHGDFWLYLW\OHYHOKDV

FRQWLQXHGXQWLODWOHDVW2FWREHURIZKHQ5XVVLDFRQGXFWHGDQH[HUFLVHZLWKHLJKWQXFOHDU



&DQDGD³8QGHUZDWHU:DUIDUH6XLWH8SJUDGH3URWHFWV6DLORUV)URP4XLHWHU6XEPDULQHVDQG7RUSHGRHV´

&KULVWRSKHU:RRG\³5XVVLDQVXEPDULQHDFWLYLW\LQWKH1RUWK$WODQWLFKDVUHSRUWHGO\
LQFUHDVHGWHQIROG
DQG
WKH8.LVVWUXJJOLQJWRNHHSXS´%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU0D\KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPUXVVLDQ
VXEPDULQHDFWLYLW\LQFUHDVLQJDURXQGXNDQGLQQRUWKDWODQWLF

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

0DUN0D]]HWWLDQG7KRP6KDQNHU³5XVVLDQ6XEV3DWUROOLQJ2II(DVW&RDVWRI86´1HZ<RUN7LPHV
$XJXVWKWWSVZZZQ\WLPHVFRPZRUOGSDWUROKWPO

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


DQGWZRGLHVHOVXEPDULQHVVDLOLQJFRQFXUUHQWO\JDLQLQJVLJQLILFDQWPHGLDDWWHQWLRQLQWKH

:HVW

$VGHVFULEHGE\3HUNLQVZLWKWKHVHµGHWHFWHG¶GHSOR\PHQWV5XVVLDKDVUHPLQGHG1$72

WKDWLWKDVWKHFDSDELOLW\WRGHSOR\LWVVXEPDULQHVDWZLOOZKLOHDWWKHVDPHWLPHWHVWLQJ1$72¶V

UHVSRQVHYLWDOLQIRUPDWLRQLWFDQXVHLQIXWXUH³XQGHWHFWHG´PLVVLRQV:KLOHWKH5XVVLDQ

1DY\¶VUHIRFXVLQJRQVXEPDULQHFDSDELOLWLHVKDVQRWEHHQZLWKRXWFKDOOHQJHVVXFKDVWKHGHOD\V

LQGHSOR\LQJLWV$,3FDSDELOLW\RQWKH6W3HWHUVEXUJFODVVWKHLUFRQWLQXLQJGHYHORSPHQWRI

TXLHWHUDQGPRUHFDSDEOHVXEPDULQHVZLOOFKDOOHQJH&DQDGD¶VDOOLHVLQEHLQJDEOHWRGHWHFWDQG

WUDFNWKHP

6RPHH[DPSOHVRIWKHVHWHFKQRORJ\DGYDQFHPHQWVIRUQHZSODWIRUPVZKLFKDUH

UHSODFLQJWKH&ROG:DUHUDVXEPDULQHVDWWKHHQGRIWKHLUVHUYLFHOLYHVLQFOXGHDGYDQFHVWR

TXLHWLQJWHFKQRORJ\IRUH[DPSOHWKHSURSXOVLRQV\VWHPRQWKH<XUL'ROJRUXN\66%1WKH

<DVHQFODVVEHLQJEXLOWZLWKDUHODWLYHO\VPDOOGLVSODFHPHQWDQGORZPDJQHWLFVLJQDWXUHVWHHO

DQGWKH/DGDFODVVGHVLJQHGZLWKDQ$,3IXHOFHOOWRDOORZLWWRVWD\VXEPHUJHGPXFKORQJHUWKDQ

DFRQYHQWLRQDOGLHVHOVXEPDULQH

:KLOHWKHVHQHZVXEPDULQHFODVVHVDUHH[SHFWHGWREHH[WUHPHO\FDSDEOHWKH\DUHQRWWKH

RQO\XQGHUZDWHUWKUHDWWKDW&DQDGD¶VDOOLHVQHHGWREHFRQFHUQHGZLWKGHWHFWLQJDQGWUDFNLQJ,Q

5XVVLDQQHZVµOHDNHG¶WKHFRQFHSWRIDPDVVLYHVXEPDULQHODXQFKHGQXFOHDUGURQH



$OHF/XKQ³5XVVLDQ6XEPDULQHV3RZHULQWR1RUWK$WODQWLFLQ%LJJHVW0DQRHXYUH6LQFH&ROG:DU´7KH
7HOHJUDSK2FWREHUKWWSVZZZWHOHJUDSKFRXNQHZVUXVVLDQVXEPDULQHVSRZHUQRUWK
DWODQWLFELJJHVWPDQRHXYUHVLQFH

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

,ELG&KULVWRSKHU:RRG\³7RS86FRPPDQGHULQ(XURSHVD\V5XVVLD
VVXEVDUHJHWWLQJEXVLHUDV7UXPS
FXWVVXEKXQWLQJSODQHVIURPWKH3HQWDJRQEXGJHW´%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPUXVVLDVXEVJHWWLQJEXVLHUDQGKDUGHUWRWUDFNLQDWODQWLF

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH$VGHQRWHGHOVHZKHUHLQWKH3HUNLQV
GRFXPHQW66%1GHQRWHVD1XFOHDUSRZHUHGEDOOLVWLFPLVVLOHFDUU\LQJVXEPDULQHDQGWKH<DVHQFODVVLVWKH
UHSODFHPHQWIRUWKH$NXODFODVVZKLFKKDVEHHQLQVHUYLFHIRUVHYHUDOGHFDGHV

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WRUSHGRZKLFKKDVEHHQUHIHUUHGWRDVERWK³6WDWXV´DQG³3RVHLGRQ´7KLVGURQHZRXOGEH

ODXQFKHGIURPDSXUSRVHEXLOWVXEPDULQHWKH6DURYDQGFODLPVDERXWLWVSXUSRVHLQFOXGHGWKH

DELOLW\WRHLWKHUFUHDWHDWDUJHWHGWVXQDPLRUJHQHUDWH³H[WHQVLYHUDGLRDFWLYHFRQWDPLQDWLRQ´LQ

FRDVWDODUHDV:KLOHPRVWO\GLVPLVVHGDV5XVVLDQGLVLQIRUPDWLRQWKHIDFWLVWKDW5XVVLDLV

VSHQGLQJVLJQLILFDQWDPRXQWVRIPRQH\DQGUHVHDUFKRQXQGHUZDWHUFDSDELOLWLHVDQGWKH:HVWLV

WDNLQJQRWLFHDQGZLOOQHHGWRILJXUHRXWZD\VWRFRXQWHUPRGHUQTXLHWVXEPDULQHVDQGRWKHU

HPHUJLQJWHFKQRORJLHV

China

:KLOH³WKHGHVLJQRIWKHLQGLJHQRXV&KLQHVHVXEPDULQHVODJVERWK5XVVLDQDQG:HVWHUQ

KLJKHQGVXEPDULQHV´LWVQHZHVWVXEPDULQHVDUHVHHQDVFDWFKLQJXSWRZHVWHUQDQG5XVVLDQ

VXEVLQWHUPVRIVWHDOWK7KH7\SHµ6KDQJ¶&ODVVLQFRUSRUDWHV³DGYDQFHGTXLHWLQJ

WHFKQRORJ\ZLWKDK\GURG\QDPLFDOO\HIILFLHQWKXOOIRUP´DQGWKH7\SHµ-LQ¶&ODVVEDOOLVWLF

PLVVLOHVXEPDULQHVDUHUHFRJQL]HGWREHPXFKTXLHWHUWKDQSUHYLRXVJHQHUDWLRQVRI&KLQHVHEXLOW

FODVVHV

,QVRPHDUHDV&KLQDPD\HYHQEHVXUSDVVLQJRWKHUQDWLRQVDOWKRXJKVRPHRIWKHLUFODLPV

DUHYLHZHGZLWKVNHSWLFLVP2QHH[DPSOHLVWKHSRWHQWLDOUHHQJLQHHULQJRISURSHOOHUGHVLJQVWR

LQFRUSRUDWH5LP'ULYHQ3XPSMHWWHFKQRORJ\ZKLFKFRXOGEHVWHDOWKLHUWKDQRWKHUFXUUHQW

GHVLJQVRQLWVQHZ7\SHQXFOHDUVXE5HJDUGOHVVRIWKHYDOLGLW\RIVRPHRIWKHVHFODLPV



'DYLG+DPEOLQJ7KH7UXWK%HKLQG5XVVLD¶V$SRFDO\SVH7RUSHGR3RSXODU0HFKDQLFV-DQXDU\
KWWSVZZZSRSXODUPHFKDQLFVFRPPLOLWDU\ZHDSRQVDUXVVLDDSRFDO\SVHWRUSHGRSRVHLGRQ*OREDO
6HFXULW\RUJ³6WDWXV.DQ\RQ2FHDQ0XOWLSXUSRVH6\VWHP´DFFHVVHG0DUFK
KWWSVZZZJOREDOVHFXULW\RUJZPGZRUOGUXVVLDVWDWXVKWP

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

,ELG+,6XWWRQ³&KLQD¶V6XEPDULQHV0D\%H&DWFKLQJXS:LWK861DY\´)RUEHV1RYHPEHU
KWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVKLVXWWRQODWHVWFKLQHVHVXEPDULQHVFDWFKLQJXSZLWKXV
QDY\DDFF

*OREH&RPSRVLWH6ROXWLRQV//&³,V&KLQD7DNLQJWKH/HDGLQ6XEPDULQH3URSXOVLRQ"´
JOREHFRPSRVLWHFRPDFFHVVHG0DUFKKWWSVZZZJOREHFRPSRVLWHFRPEORJFKLQDVXEPDULQHSURSXOVLRQ
WHFKQRORJ\

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


&KLQDLVLPSURYLQJLWVVXEPDULQHFDSDELOLWLHVDQGKDVEHHQVKRZQWREHH[SHULPHQWLQJZLWK

PRGHUQKXOOGHVLJQVWKDWGLIIHUIURPDQ\VHHQEHIRUH

&KLQDLVDZRUOGZLGHOHDGHULQ$,UHVHDUFKDQGWKH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDV³GHFODUHGLWV

DPELWLRQIRU&KLQDWREHFRPHWKHZRUOG¶VOHDGLQJ$,LQQRYDWRUE\´6RPHRIWKH

UHVHDUFKFLWHGLQWKLVSDSHURULJLQDWHGIURP&KLQHVHLQVWLWXWLRQV <XH<DQJ<DQJ VRLW

VHHPVDVDIHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWZKLOHLWLVSRXULQJHIIRUWDQGUHVHDUFKLQWRDGYDQFLQJLWVVXEPDULQH

FDSDELOLWLHVLWZRXOGDOVREHRQWKHOHDGLQJHGJHRI$6:UHVHDUFKLQFOXGLQJUHSRUWHG

GHYHORSPHQWRI³XQPDQQHGVXEPDULQHVZKLFKUHO\XSRQ$,WHFKQRORJ\´:KLOHDQWLFLSDWHGWR

DXJPHQWUDWKHUWKDQUHSODFHVXEPDULQHUVWKHWHFKQRORJ\GHYHORSHGIRUWKHVH889DUHH[SHFWHG

WRSURYLGHVXSSRUWWRVXEPDULQHFUHZV

:KHWKHULQWHQGHGWRSDWURODQDUHDFROOHFWLQJRFHDQRJUDSKLFGDWDRUPRUHVLQLVWHUO\

EHLQJORDGHGZLWKZHDSRQVDQGO\LQJLQZDLWVLOHQWO\XQWLORUGHUHGWRFDUU\RXWDQDWWDFNWKHVH

YLUWXDOO\VLOHQW889VZRXOGEHH[WUHPHO\KDUGWRORFDWHDQGYHU\GLIILFXOWWRGHIHDWHVSHFLDOO\LI

DOVRUXQE\$,DOJRULWKPVSURYHQWREHDEOHWRRXWPDQHXYHUDQGRXWVWUDWHJL]HKXPDQRSSRQHQWV

OLNHWKRVHSURYHQLQJDPHVOLNHFKHVVRU*R



+,6XWWRQ7KH&KLQHVH1DY\¶V1HZ0\VWHU\6XEPDULQH)RUEHV2FWREHU
KWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVKLVXWWRQFKLQDQDY\QHZP\VWHU\VXEPDULQHGEEDF

:LOO.QLJKW³&KLQD¶V$,$ZDNHQLQJ´7HFKQRORJ\5HYLHZFRP2FWREHU
KWWSVZZZWHFKQRORJ\UHYLHZFRPFKLQDVDLDZDNHQLQJ-HII/RXFNV6XVDQQH+XSIHU'DYLG
-DUYLV7LPRWK\0XUSK\)XWXUHLQWKH%DODQFH"+RZ&RXQWULHVDUH3XUVXLQJDQ$,$GYDQWDJH'HORLWWH,QVLJKWV
0D\KWWSVZZZGHORLWWHFRPXVHQLQVLJKWVIRFXVFRJQLWLYHWHFKQRORJLHVDLLQYHVWPHQWE\
FRXQWU\KWPOHQGQRWH

+DR<XH/LOXQ=KDQJ'H]KL:DQJ<RQJ[LDQ:DQJDQG=HQJTXDQ/X³7KH&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI8QGHUZDWHU
$FRXVWLF7DUJHWV%DVHGRQ'HHS/HDUQLQJ0HWKRGV´$GYDQFHVLQ,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPV5HVHDUFKYROXPH
$WODQWLV3UHVV

+RQJKXL<DQJ-XQKDR/L6KHQJ6KHQDQG*XDQJKXL;X³$'HHS&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO1HWZRUN,QVSLUHG
E\$XGLWRU\3HUFHSWLRQIRU8QGHUZDWHU$FRXVWLF7DUJHW5HFRJQLWLRQ´6HQVRUV6HQVRUV

5XL<DQJ/LQ)HQJ+XLELQJ:DQJ-LDQLQJ<DRDQG6HQ/XR3DUDOOHO5HFXUUHQW&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO
1HWZRUNV%DVHG0XVLF*HQUH&ODVVLILFDWLRQ0HWKRGIRU0RELOH'HYLFHV,((($FFHVV9ROXPH-DQXDU\


3DW5DEELWWH³$,:LOO+HOS6XEPDULQH&UHZV%HWWHU8QGHUVWDQG:KDW$GYHUVDULHV$UH'RLQJ8QGHUZDWHU´
7KH6RFLDEOH-XO\KWWSVVRFLDEOHFRWHFKQRORJ\DLZLOOKHOSVXEPDULQHFUHZVEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGZKDW
DGYHUVDULHVDUHGRLQJXQGHUZDWHU

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


5XVVLDDQG&KLQDDVZHOODVVHYHUDOZHVWHUQQDWLRQVKDYHGHYHORSHG$LU,QGHSHQGHQW

3URSXOVLRQ $,3 V\VWHPVDJURXSRIWHFKQRORJLHVWKDWVLJQLILFDQWO\UHGXFHKRZRIWHQ

VXEPDULQHVPXVWFDUU\RXWVXUIDFHGEDWWHU\UHFKDUJLQJVHTXHQFHVLQFOXGLQJEXWQRWOLPLWHGWR

3URWRQ([FKDQJH0HPEUDQH)XHO&HOOV6WLUOLQJ&\FOH(QJLQHV5DQNLQH&\FOH3RZHU3ODQWVDQG

&ORVHG&\FOH(QJLQHV6XEPDULQHVILWWHGZLWK$,3GRQRWQHHGWRH[SRVHDVQRUNHOOLQJPDVW

WRUHFKDUJHWKHLUEDWWHULHVDVRIWHQLIHYHUUHGXFLQJGHWHFWLRQE\PHDQVVXFKDV5DGDURUWKH

³K\GURFDUERQVHQVRUGHVLJQHGWRSLFNXSIXHOYDSRU´UHSRUWHGO\FDUULHGE\WKH3$V

VXEPDULQHVEHQHILWIURPUHVHDUFKFDUULHGRXWE\WKHDXWRPRWLYHLQGXVWU\LQWRLPSURYLQJEDWWHU\

WHFKQRORJ\WKH³QHHGIRUDGLHVHOHOHFWULFVXEPDULQHHYHUWRVXUIDFH´FRXOGXOWLPDWHO\EH

HOLPLQDWHGIXUWKHUFKDQJLQJWDFWLFVDQGGHWHFWLRQPHWKRGVRI$6:SODWIRUPV7KH*HUPDQ

EXLOW7\SH$,3PRGHOVSRZHUHGE\K\GURJHQIXHOFHOOV³DUHDOPRVWFRPSOHWHO\VLOHQWDQG

UDGLDWHYLUWXDOO\QRKHDW´ZKLFKDORQJZLWK³KLJKWHFKHQHUJ\PDQDJHPHQWDFRXVWLFDOO\

RSWLPLVHGHTXLSPHQWDQGQRQPDJQHWLFFRQVWUXFWLRQ´DGGVXSWRZKDWVRPHHTXDWHWRQHDU

LPSRVVLEOHGHWHFWLRQRIWKHVHVXEPDULQHV

$GYHUVDU\DQGIULHQGO\QDWLRQVDOLNHXVHVSHFLDOFRDWLQJVRU$QHFKRLFWLOLQJWR³ERWK

UHGXFHQRLVHDQGPLWLJDWHDFWLYH621$5GHWHFWLRQ´5HVHDUFKHUVDUHH[SORULQJDGYDQFHG

YHUVLRQVRIWKHVHFRDWLQJVVXFKDVWKHXVHRIQDQRWHFKQRORJ\WRFUHDWHDW\SHRIFORDNLQJGHYLFH



3VDOOLGDV.RQVWDQWLQRV&OLIIRUG$:KLWFRPEDQG-RKQ&+RRWPDQ³'HVLJQRI&RQYHQWLRQDO6XEPDULQHV
ZLWK$GYDQFHG$LU,QGHSHQGHQW3URSXOVLRQ6\VWHPVDQG'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI&RUUHVSRQGLQJ7KHDWHU/HYHO,PSDFWV´
&DPEULGJH0$0DVVDFKXVHWWV,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\

&KULV:RRG\³6XEPDULQHVDUHLQFUHDVLQJO\OXUNLQJLQVHDVDURXQGWKHZRUOGDQGWKH861DY\
VKLJKWHFK
3RVHLGRQLVWKHUHWRKXQWWKHP´%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU0D\KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPXVQDY\SD
SRVHLGRQVXEKXQWLQJDLUFUDIWIHDWXUHVVDOHV

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

*DUHWK(YDQV³&DWDQG0RXVH7KH$UWRI6XEPDULQH'HWHFWLRQ´1DYDO7HFKQRORJ\FRP-XQH
KWWSVZZZQDYDOWHFKQRORJ\FRPIHDWXUHVIHDWXUH

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WKDWZRXOGHVVHQWLDOO\PDNHVXEPDULQHVLQYLVLEOHWR621$5V:KLOHVWLOOFRQFHSWXDOWKHLGHD

ZRXOGEHWRFRDWDVXEPDULQHZLWKDPDWHULDOWKDWEHQGVVRXQGZDYHVDURXQGWKHKXOOWRDYRLG

VHQVRUV2WKHUIXWXULVWLFRSWLRQVLQFOXGHWKHSRWHQWLDOJHQHUDWLRQRIXOWUDORZIUHTXHQF\VRXQG

WKURXJKWKHXVHRIFDUERQQDQRWXEHVZKLFKFRXOGLQHIIHFWSURYLGHDQRLVHFDQFHOOLQJFRDWLQJ

UHGXFLQJHPLWWHGQRLVHDQGSRVVLEO\UHQGHULQJHQHP\DFWLYH621$5SLQJVLQHIIHFWLYH

7KHDGYDQWDJHLQ$6:KDVWUDGLWLRQDOO\DOWHUQDWHGEHWZHHQWKHKXQWHUDQGWKHKXQWHG

:LWKWRGD\¶VOLPLWHGUHVRXUFHVDQGPDQSRZHUVKRUWDJHVRQWKHVLGHRIWKHKXQWHUVDQGVLJQLILFDQW

DGYDQFHVE\DGYHUVDULHVLQVXEPDULQHTXLHWLQJWHFKQRORJLHVLWZRXOGVHHPWKHDGYDQWDJHLV

VKLIWLQJEDFNWRVXEPDULQHVLQEHLQJDEOHWRDYRLGGHWHFWLRQZLWKHYHQUHFHQWSURVHFXWLRQV

XQDEOHWRPDLQWDLQYLVLELOLW\RQWDUJHWV³IRURIWKHWLPH´$VRXWOLQHGWKURXJKRXWWKLV

SDSHUDGRSWLRQRI0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJDQG$,E\&DQDGDDQGKHUDOOLHVDUHYLDEOHZD\VWRFRXQWHU

WKLVVKLIWLQJRIWKHEDODQFH



*DUHWK(YDQV³&DWDQG0RXVH7KH$UWRI6XEPDULQH'HWHFWLRQ´1DYDO7HFKQRORJ\FRP-XQH
KWWSVZZZQDYDOWHFKQRORJ\FRPIHDWXUHVIHDWXUH

,ELG

&KULVWRSKHU:RRG\³7RS86FRPPDQGHULQ(XURSHVD\V5XVVLD
VVXEVDUHJHWWLQJEXVLHUDV7UXPSFXWVVXE
KXQWLQJSODQHVIURPWKH3HQWDJRQEXGJHW´%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPUXVVLDVXEVJHWWLQJEXVLHUDQGKDUGHUWRWUDFNLQDWODQWLF

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 7: ALLIED INITIATIVES

&DQDGD¶VFORVHVWDOOLHVDUHLQYHVWLQJKHDYLO\LQ$,DQG0/WRDXJPHQWLIQRWILJKWWKHLU

IXWXUHZDUV7KLVFKDSWHUZLOOORRNDWH[DPSOHVRILQLWLDWLYHVIURPWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV$XVWUDOLD

DQG1$72DVWKH\UHODWHWR$6:DQG$,0/

United States

 7KHGLUHFWRURIWKH86-RLQW$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH&HQWHU/W*HQ-DFN6KDQDKDQ

GHVFULEHGEDWWOHVRIWKHIXWXUHDV³DOJRULWKPVYVDOJRULWKPV´7KHH[LVWHQFHRID-RLQW$,

&HQWHUVSHDNVWRWKHLUOHYHORIFRPPLWPHQWWRDGRSWLQJWKHWHFKQRORJLHV(DFKRIWKHVHUYLFHVLV

DOVRORRNLQJDWKRZWRKDUQHVVWKHFDSDELOLWLHVRI$,DQG0/,QWKHPDULWLPHHQYLURQPHQW

³ERWKWKH1DY\DQGWKH0DULQH&RUSVDUHZRUNLQJRQZD\VWREHWWHULQWHJUDWHDUWLILFLDO

LQWHOOLJHQFHLQWRWKHLUZHDSRQVV\VWHPVDQGEXVLQHVVSUDFWLFHV´VHHNLQJWRXVHWHFKQRORJ\WR

DVVLVW³KXPDQRSHUDWRUVZLWKPDNLQJGHFLVLRQVIDVWHU´

$VHDUO\DVWKH861DY\VROLFLWHGSURSRVDOVIRU³QHZFRPSXWLQJDQGVHQVRU

WHFKQRORJLHVIRUDFWLYHDQGSDVVLYH621$5V\VWHPVLQYROYHGLQVXUYHLOODQFHVLWXDWLRQDO

DZDUHQHVVDQGDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUH $6: ´7KHVHLQFOXGHG6XEPDULQHDQG6XUIDFH

&RPEDW6\VWHP6HQVRUDQG6LJQDO3URFHVVLQJ7HFKQRORJLHVLQFOXGLQJ³DSSO\LQJVRSKLVWLFDWHG

FRPSXWLQJWHFKQRORJLHVVXFKDVDUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHGHHSOHDUQLQJPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDQG

SUHGLFWLYHDQDO\WLFVWRKHOSGHWHFWPDQPDGHVLJQDOV´



'DYLG9HUJXQ³:LWKRXW(IIHFWLYH$,0LOLWDU\5LVNV/RVLQJ1H[W:DU*HQHUDO6D\V´'HIHQVHJRY
$FFHVVHG)HEUXDU\KWWSVZZZGHIHQVHJRY([SORUH)HDWXUHVVWRU\$UWLFOHZLWKRXWHIIHFWLYHDL
PLOLWDU\ULVNVORVLQJQH[WZDUVD\VDLGLUHFWRUVRXUFH*RY'HOLYHU\

<DVPLQ7DGMGHK³1DY\0DULQH&RUSV%RRVW,QYHVWPHQWLQ$,3ODWIRUPV´1DWLRQDO'HIHQVH-XQH
KWWSVZZZQDWLRQDOGHIHQVHPDJD]LQHRUJDUWLFOHVQDY\PDULQHFRUSVERRVWLQYHVWPHQWLQDLSODWIRUPV

-RKQ.HOOHU1DY\,QWHUHVWHGLQ1HZ&RPSXWLQJDQG6HQVRU7HFKQRORJLHVIRU6KLSERDUGDQG6XEPDULQH
621$50LOLWDU\ $HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV-XO\
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPFRPSXWHUVDUWLFOHQDY\LQWHUHVWHGLQQHZFRPSXWLQJDQGVHQVRU
WHFKQRORJLHVIRUVKLSERDUGDQGVXEPDULQH621$5

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


 2QHRIWKHSULPDU\$6:SODWIRUPVIRUWKH861DY\ 861 DQGIRUDQH[SDQGLQJ

QHWZRUNRI$6:DOOLHVLQFOXGLQJ$XVWUDOLDWKH8.DQG1RUZD\LVWKH33RVHLGRQDLUFUDIW

7RXWHGDV³WKHEHVWVXEKXQWLQJDLUFUDIWRQWKHPDUNHW´WKH3KDVEHHQLQVHUYLFHZLWKWKH861

VLQFHZKHQLWEHJDQUHSODFLQJWKH3$VFDQRIRSHQVRXUFHDUWLFOHVGHVFULEHVDVOHZ

RIKLJKO\DGYDQFHGWHFKQRORJLHVDERDUGWKHDLUFUDIWEXWWKHUHLVQRPHQWLRQRI$,RQWKH3,Q

IDFWQHZHUGHOLYHULHVKDYHH[WUDFUHZVWDWLRQVIRUH[SDQGHGQXPEHURIKXPDQRSHUDWRUV,Q

ODWHWKH86DQQRXQFHGWKDWLWZRXOGEHVWRSSLQJLWVSXUFKDVHVRI3VDWDLUIUDPHV

IDOOLQJVKRUWRIWKHWKH1DY\GHWHUPLQHGLWQHHGHGWRFRXQWHU5XVVLDQDQG&KLQHVHQDYDO

IRUFHV3HUKDSVIXWXUHDGRSWLRQRI0/IRU$6:DVRXWOLQHGLQWKLVSDSHUFRXOGEULGJHWKH

JDSEHWZHHQWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVDQGQXPEHURIDLUFUDIWDFTXLUHG

 7KH861LVWKHOHDGHULQVXEPDULQHWHFKQRORJ\DQGLVFRQVLVWHQWO\DGYDQFLQJLWV

VXEPDULQHFODVVHVWRPDLQWDLQLWVHGJHLQVXEPDULQHZDUIDUHLQFOXGLQJSODQVWREXLOGVHYHUDO

PRUH9LUJLQLDFODVVVXEPDULQHVDQGWRUHSODFHLWV2KLRFODVVEDOOLVWLFPLVVLOHFDUU\LQJ

VXEPDULQHV³ZLWK&ROXPELDFODVVVXEPDULQHVWKHILUVWRIZKLFKLVH[SHFWHGLQILVFDO\HDU

´,QWKHIDFHRILQFUHDVLQJDGYHUVDU\VXEPDULQHQXPEHUVDQGFDSDELOLWLHVVRPHKDYH

VSHFXODWHGWKDWWKH86ZLOOKDYHWRDGMXVWWDFWLFVDZD\IURPLWVFXUUHQW³RQHRQRQH´PRGHODQG



&KULVWRSKHU:RRG\³7RS86FRPPDQGHULQ(XURSHVD\V5XVVLD
VVXEVDUHJHWWLQJEXVLHUDV7UXPSFXWVVXE
KXQWLQJSODQHVIURPWKH3HQWDJRQEXGJHW´%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPUXVVLDVXEVJHWWLQJEXVLHUDQGKDUGHUWRWUDFNLQDWODQWLF

-RKQ.HOOHU³%RHLQJWR,QWHJUDWH([WUD&UHZ:RUNVWDWLRQVLQ8SJUDGHWR3$3RVHLGRQ0DULWLPH
6XUYHLOODQFH$LUFUDIW´0LOLWDU\DQG$HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV$XJXVW
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPFRPSXWHUVDUWLFOHSDSRVHLGRQFUHZZRUNVWDWLRQVXSJUDGH

/RUHQ7KRPSVRQ³861DY\3ODQVWR6WRS%X\LQJ33RVHLGRQ6XE+XQWHUV'HVSLWH*URZLQJ8QGHUVHD
7KUHDW´)RUEHV'HFHPEHUKWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVORUHQWKRPSVRQXVQDY\SODQVWRVWRS
EX\LQJSSRVHLGRQVXEKXQWHUVGHVSLWHJURZLQJXQGHUVHDWKUHDWFFEIIH

=DFKDU\&RKHQ86/DXQFKHVµ0RVW$GYDQFHG¶6WHDOWK6XE$PLG8QGHUVHD5LYDOU\&11FRP2FWREHU
KWWSVZZZFQQFRPSROLWLFVQDY\XVVVRXWKGDNRWDVXEPDULQHFKLQDUXVVLDLQGH[KWPO

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


H[SORUHGLIIHUHQWZD\VRIILJKWLQJLQFOXGLQJWKHSRVVLEOHDGGLWLRQRIXQPDQQHGSODWIRUPVWR

FRYHUDQDUHDDJDLQVWPXOWLSOHDGYHUVDULHV

:LWKWUDGLWLRQDOVHQVRUVOLNHSDVVLYH621$5VHQFRXQWHULQJOLPLWDWLRQVDJDLQVWTXLHWHU

VXEPDULQHVLQLWLDWLYHVWRJDWKHUKLJKHUTXDOLW\LQIRUPDWLRQDQGEHWWHUXWLOL]HRFHDQRJUDSKLFGDWD

WRRSWLPL]HSUHGLFWLRQVRIDFRXVWLFSURSDJDWLRQDUHEHLQJUHFRJQL]HGDVDQDUHDRIRSSRUWXQLW\

DQGWKH861LVVHHNLQJOHDGLQJHGJHFRPSXWLQJDQGVHQVRUWHFKQRORJLHVIRUERWKDFWLYHDQG

SDVVLYH621$5V\VWHPVIRULWVVXUIDFHVKLSVDQGVXEPDULQHVZKLFKZLOOFRPELQHDQGDQDO\]H

PXOWLSOHGDWDVHWVDQGDUHOLNHO\WROHYHUDJH$,DQG0/WRSURFHVVWKHGDWD

 2QHKLJKO\SXEOLFL]HGSURMHFWWKH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH $6: &RQWLQXRXV7UDLO

8QPDQQHG9HVVHO $&789 ZDVDSURWRW\SHHPSOR\LQJ³QRQFRQYHQWLRQDOVHQVRU

WHFKQRORJLHV´LQFOXGLQJ$,WRUXQWKHV\VWHPDXWRQRPRXVO\³WRUREXVWO\WUDFNTXLHWGLHVHO

HOHFWULFVXEPDULQHV´,WZDVGHVLJQHG³XQGHUWKHSUHPLVHWKDWDKXPDQLVQHYHULQWHQGHGWR

VWHSDERDUG´DQGHPSOR\HG³QRQFRQYHQWLRQDOVHQVRUWHFKQRORJLHV´WRPDQDJHLWV³LQWHUDFWLRQV

ZLWKDQLQWHOOLJHQWDGYHUVDU\´DQGWUDFNVXEPDULQHV³RYHUWKHLUHQWLUHRSHUDWLQJHQYHORSH´DQG

RYHUDORQJGXUDWLRQEHWZHHQDQGGD\VE\VRPHDFFRXQWV$IWHUVXFFHVVIXOVHDWULDOV

UHVSRQVLELOLW\IRUIXUWKHUGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHWHFKQRORJ\ZDVKDQGHGRYHUWRWKH2IILFHRI1DYDO



,ELG

3DW5DEELWWH$,:LOO+HOS6XEPDULQH&UHZV%HWWHU8QGHUVWDQG:KDW$GYHUVDULHV$UH'RLQJ8QGHUZDWHU
7KH6RFLDEOH-XO\KWWSVVRFLDEOHFRWHFKQRORJ\DLZLOOKHOSVXEPDULQHFUHZVEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGZKDW
DGYHUVDULHVDUHGRLQJXQGHUZDWHU<DVPLQ7DGMGHK³1DY\0DULQH&RUSV%RRVW,QYHVWPHQWLQ$,3ODWIRUPV´
1DWLRQDO'HIHQVH-XQHDFFHVVHG-DQXDU\
KWWSVZZZQDWLRQDOGHIHQVHPDJD]LQHRUJDUWLFOHVQDY\PDULQHFRUSVERRVWLQYHVWPHQWLQDLSODWIRUPV

'$53$³$&789³6HD+XQWHU´3URWRW\SH7UDQVLWLRQVWR2IILFHRI1DYDO5HVHDUFKIRU)XUWKHU
'HYHORSPHQW´'$53$PLO-DQXDU\KWWSVZZZGDUSDPLOQHZVHYHQWVD

'U$OH[DQGHU0*:DODQ³$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH $6: &RQWLQXRXV7UDLO8QPDQQHG9HVVHO
$&789 ´'$53$PLOKWWSVZZZGDUSDPLOSURJUDPDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUHFRQWLQXRXVWUDLOXQPDQQHGYHVVHO
:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


5HVHDUFKZKRVHUHVHDUFKLQLWLDWLYHVDUHKHDYLO\IRFXVVHGRQ0/DQG$,IRUDFWLYHDQGSDVVLYH

621$5VLJQDOSURFHVVLQJ

 215KDVDFNQRZOHGJHGWKDWWKH861³LVFXUUHQWO\HPSOR\LQJ$,IRUDXWRPDWHGGDWD

SURFHVVLQJRQLWVXQPDQQHGV\VWHPV´DQGLVXVLQJWKHWHFKQRORJ\IRUPLQHFRXQWHUPHDVXUH

PLVVLRQVE\KDYLQJ889VHTXLSSHGZLWK$,FROOHFWGDWDH[DPLQHLWDQGWKHQ³UHFRJQL]HPLQHV

DQGGLVFDUGFOXWWHU´7KHUHDUHVRPHZKRHYHQEHOLHYHWKDWWKH86VKRXOGWUDQVLWLRQ

FRPSOHWHO\WRXQPDQQHGV\VWHPVLQ$6:DQGWKDWWKLVFKDQJHZRXOGRIIHUVLJQLILFDQWFRVW

VDYLQJVFRPSDUHGWRPDQQHGSODWIRUPV:LWKOLQHRIVLJKWRUVDWHOOLWHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVWKH\

DUJXHXQPDQQHGSODWIRUPVFRXOGXVHOLQNVZLWKRSHUDWRUVRQVKRUHPDQQHGSODWIRUPVRUHYHQ

HDFKRWKHUWRDFKLHYHWKHLUWDVNVRIGHSOR\LQJVHQVRUVDQGGHWHFWLQJRUGHWHUULQJVXEPDULQHV

HYHQZLWKRXWRSHUDWRUVRQERDUG

 0DQ\V\VWHPVDUHVWLOOPDQQHGDQGWKH86LVDOVROHDGLQJWKHZD\RQRSWLPL]LQJ

PHWKRGVRIKRZWRWUDLQRSHUDWRUV2QHLQLWLDWLYHWRDXJPHQWWKHWUDGLWLRQDOWUDLQLQJRI621$5

2SHUDWRUVLVWRDSSO\WKHDWWULEXWHVRIYLGHRJDPHVVXFKDVEHLQJ³IDVWSDFHGH[FLWLQJDQG

HQJDJLQJ´DVZHOODVDYDLODEOHIRUUHJXODUXVHXQOLNHWUDGLWLRQDOVLPXODWRUVWRWU\WRPDLQWDLQ

RSHUDWRUSURILFLHQF\DQGVWUHQJWKHQWHDPV¶FRRUGLQDWLRQLQ$6:7KHVROLFLWDWLRQIRUD

³0XOWLSOD\HU6HULRXV*DPHIRU$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH621$52SHUDWRU7UDLQLQJ´

VSHFLILFDOO\RXWOLQHVOHYHUDJLQJ³SHUIRUPDQFHFROOHFWLRQELJGDWDDQDO\VLVDQG0DFKLQH

/HDUQLQJ´WR³SURYLGHIRUKLJKYHORFLW\OHDUQLQJ´DQGVSHFLILHVWKDWWKHJDPH³VKRXOGDOORZSOD\



2IILFHRI1DYDO5HVHDUFK³8QGHUVHD6LJQDO3URFHVVLQJ´KWWSVZZZRQUQDY\PLOHQ6FLHQFH
7HFKQRORJ\'HSDUWPHQWV&RGHDOOSURJUDPVXQGHUVHDVLJQDOSURFHVVLQJ

<DVPLQ7DGMGHK1DY\0DULQH&RUSV%RRVW,QYHVWPHQWLQ$,3ODWIRUPV1DWLRQDO'HIHQVH-XQH
DFFHVVHG-DQXDU\KWWSVZZZQDWLRQDOGHIHQVHPDJD]LQHRUJDUWLFOHVQDY\PDULQHFRUSVERRVW
LQYHVWPHQWLQDLSODWIRUPV

-RKQ.HOOHU2SLQLRQ861DY\6KRXOG5HO\RQ8QPDQQHG6\VWHPVDQG6HQVRUVWR)LQG7UDFNDQG$WWDFN
(QHP\6XEPDULQHV0LOLWDU\DQG$HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV$SULO
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPXQPDQQHGDUWLFOHXQPDQQHGDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUHDVZVHQVRUV

KWWSVZZZVELUJRYQRGH

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


ZLWKRUDJDLQVWUHDODQGDUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFH´7KHSURMHFWIXUWKHUVSHFLILHVWKDWLQIXWXUH

SKDVHVWKHWUDLQLQJWRROFRXOGEHLQWHJUDWHGLQWRWKH$1644 9 XQGHUVHDZDUIDUHV\VWHP

ZKRVHSXUSRVHLVWRSURYLGH³VXUIDFHZDUVKLSVZLWKDVHDPOHVVO\LQWHJUDWHG86:>8QGHUVHD

:DUIDUH@$6:GHWHFWLRQORFDOL]DWLRQFODVVLILFDWLRQDQGWDUJHWLQJFDSDELOLW\´&RQVLGHUHGWKH

VWDWHRIWKHDUWWKLVV\VWHPDQGWKHQHZ0XOWL)XQFWLRQDO7RZHG$UUD\ 0)7$ DUHFRQVLGHUHG

FDSDEOHHQRXJKWRUHTXLUHWKHJHQHUDWLRQRIQHZWDFWLFVLQRUGHUWRIXOO\HPSOR\WKHP*LYHQ

WKHHPSKDVLVRIWKHPXOWLSOD\HU$6:WUDLQLQJWRROWREHDEOHWR³VXSSRUWELJGDWDDQDO\WLFVDQG

LQFOXGH$,DQG0/´DQGWKHSUHYLRXVO\GLVFXVVHGLQLWLDWLYHVE\WKH861WRLQFRUSRUDWH$,LQWR

LWVIOHHWVLWZRXOGQRWEHWRRJUHDWDVWUHWFKWRDVVXPHWKDWWKHGDWDFROOHFWHGWKURXJKWUDLQLQJ

621$52SHUDWRUVZLOODOVREHXVHGWRWUDLQWKH861¶V$,DOJRULWKPVWRFDUU\RXW$6:RUDW

OHDVWGHYHORSDQGYDOLGDWHQHZWDFWLFVLQDPHWKRGVLPLODUWRKRZ&KHVV*RDQGRWKHUJDPH

V\VWHPVZHUHLQLWLDOO\WUDLQHGE\VWXG\LQJGDWDEDVHVRIKXPDQPDWFKHV

Australia

$QRWKHUFORVHDOO\RI&DQDGD$XVWUDOLDLVLQYHVWLQJKHDYLO\LQWHFKQRORJ\WRFRXQWHU

QH[WJHQHUDWLRQFKDOOHQJHV1RWRQO\KDVLWSXUFKDVHGWKH3ZKLFKJLYHVLWV$6:DLUFUDIWD

UHSRUWHGIRXUIROGLQFUHDVHLQDFRXVWLFSURFHVVLQJFDSDFLW\RYHULWV3DLUFUDIWEXWWKURXJKLWV

3ODQ-HULFKRLVH[SORULQJSRWHQWLDOFDSDELOLWLHVWRSURWHFWDJDLQVW³WHFKQRORJLFDOO\VRSKLVWLFDWHG

DQGUDSLGO\PRUSKLQJWKUHDWV´7KLVVWUDWHJ\LVEDVHGRQIRXUOLQHVRIHIIRUW$XWRQRPRXV

3URFHVVLQJ$GYDQFHG6HQVRUV&RPEDW&ORXGDQG+XPDQ0DFKLQH$XJPHQWDWLRQSDUWQHULQJ



,ELG

'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV1DY\³$1644 9 8QGHUVHD:DUIDUH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH
&RPEDW6\VWHP´DFFHVVHG0D\KWWSVZZZQDY\PLOQDY\GDWDIDFWBGLVSOD\DVS"FLG  WLG  FW 

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

5R\DO$XVWUDOLDQ$LU)RUFH³3$3RVHLGRQ´DFFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVZZZDLUIRUFHJRYDXWHFKQRORJ\DLUFUDIWLQWHOOLJHQFHVXUYHLOODQFHDQGUHFRQQDLVVDQFHSDSRVHLGRQ5R\DO
$XVWUDOLDQ$LU)RUFHKWWSVZZZDLUIRUFHJRYDXRXUPLVVLRQSODQMHULFKR

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


SHRSOHDQGPDFKLQHV,QEXWRQHH[DPSOHRIKRZWKLVRYHUDUFKLQJSODQWROHYHUDJHWHFKQRORJ\

IRUWKH$XVWUDOLDQ'HIHQFH)RUFHKDVDOUHDG\SURYHQHIIHFWLYHLQVSXUULQJDSSOLFDWLRQRI$,DQ

LQLWLDWLYHWRXVH0/WRDVVLVWVHDUFKDQGUHVFXHDLUFUDIWZLWKLGHQWLI\LQJWDUJHWVZDVLPSOHPHQWHG

ZLWKWKHDOJRULWKPVZULWWHQDQGGDWDFROOHFWHGIURPDQDLUERUQH&ZLWKLQWKHVSDQRIMXVWD

IHZZHHNV

8QGHU3ODQ-HULFKR$XVWUDOLDLVORRNLQJWRLQWHJUDWHLQWHOOLJHQFHVXUYHLOODQFHDQG

UHFRQQDLVVDQFHGDWDDQGFRPPDQGDQGFRQWUROV\VWHPVEHWZHHQLWVQHZ+REDUW&ODVV$LU

:DUIDUH'HVWUR\HUZKLFKDOVRFRQGXFWV$6:LWV:HGJHWDLO$LUERUQH(DUO\:DUQLQJDQG

FRQWURODLUFUDIWLWV3VDQGLWV047ULWRQ8$9VZKLFKFRXOGSURYLGHFXHLQJWRWKHQHWZRUN

EDVHGRQUDGDUSHULVFRSHGHWHFWLRQRU(/,177KLVLQWHJUDWLRQZLOOFHUWDLQO\UHTXLUH$,DQG

0/V\VWHPVGXHWRWKHVKHHUYROXPHRIGDWDLQYROYHGDQGZLOOSUHVXPDEO\KDYHDVLJQLILFDQW

LPSDFWRQKRZWKRVHSODWIRUPVDUHHPSOR\HG

NATO

:KLOHPDQ\QDWLRQVDUHSXUFKDVLQJWKH86¶V3DLUFUDIWWRUHSODFHDJLQJ$6:DLUFUDIW

IOHHWVVHYHUDO1$72FRXQWULHVLQFOXGLQJ&DQDGDKDYHVLJQHGDQDJUHHPHQWWRMRLQWO\SXUFKDVH

D1$720DULWLPH0XOWL0LVVLRQ$LUFUDIW 0$ 7KH0$6WDWHPHQWRI5HTXLUHPHQWV

625 ZKLFKKDVEHHQUHIHUUHGWRHOVHZKHUHLQWKLVGRFXPHQWLGHQWLILHVWKDW³WKH1$72$6:



5R\DO$XVWUDOLDQ$LU)RUFH³(GJH)RFXV$UHDV´$FFHVVHG$SULOKWWSVZZZDLUIRUFHJRYDXRXU
PLVVLRQSODQMHULFKRHGJHIRFXVDUHD

5R\DO$XVWUDOLDQ$LU)RUFH³$,6HDUFKWR7UDQVIRUP6HDUFK 5HVFXH´DFFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVZZZDLUIRUFHJRYDXQHZVDQGHYHQWVQHZVDLVHDUFKWUDQVIRUPVHDUFKUHVFXH

/RFNKHHG0DUWLQ³3ODQ-HULFKR*LYLQJ$XVWUDOLDWKH(GJH´/RFNKHHGPDUWLQFRPDFFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVZZZORFNKHHGPDUWLQFRPHQXVQHZVIHDWXUHVSODQMHULFKRJLYLQJDXVWUDOLDWKHHGJHKWPO:LOOLDP
3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

$DURQ0HKWD³3RODQG&DQDGDMRLQ1$72PHPEHUVLQSRWHQWLDOPDULWLPHVXUYHLOODQFHDLUFUDIWEX\´
'HIHQVH1HZV)HEUXDU\KWWSVZZZGHIHQVHQHZVFRPVPUPXQLFKVHFXULW\IRUXPSRODQG
FDQDGDMRLQQDWRPHPEHUVLQSRWHQWLDOPDULWLPHVXUYHLOODQFHDLUFUDIWEX\

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


FRPPXQLW\LVH[SHULHQFLQJFKDOOHQJHVUHVXOWLQJIURPDUHGXFHG0$LQYHQWRU\´ZKLFKFRXOGEH

H[WUDSRODWHGWRLPSO\ZHQHHGWREHPRUHHIILFLHQWZLWKWKHUHVRXUFHVZHGRKDYH

:KLOHVWLOOHQYLVLRQHGWREHDFUHZHGSODWIRUPWKH0$ZLOOFRQWDLQ³VHQVRUDQGPLVVLRQ

V\VWHPLPSURYHPHQWV´ZKLFKZLOODOORZUHGXFWLRQVWRWKHVL]HRIWKHRSHUDWLQJFUHZWRWKH

H[WHQWWKDWVPDOOHUDLUFUDIWFRXOGEHXWLOL]HG7KH625UHFRPPHQGVWKDWWREHDEOHWRUHVSRQG

WR³HYROYLQJWHFKQRORJLHVRUHPHUJLQJWKUHDWVWKH0$PXVWKDYHFDSDFLW\WRJURZLWV

FDSDELOLW\VHQVRUVDQGPHDQVRYHUWLPH´,QRUGHUWRVKULQNFUHZVL]HVZKLOHJURZLQJVHQVRU

FDSDFLW\DQGIXVLQJWRJHWKHUDOORIWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQDGYDQFHGSURFHVVLQJZLOOEHUHTXLUHG7KH

625PHQWLRQVIOH[LELOLW\WRLQFRUSRUDWHµTXDQWXPWHFKQRORJLHV¶DQGµRWKHUV¶ZKLFKZRXOG

FHUWDLQO\KDYHWRLQFOXGH0/RU$,FDSDELOLWLHVDVRXWOLQHGLQWKLVSDSHU

$FRQFHSWHQYLVLRQHGIRUWKH0$DQGDOVRGLVFXVVHGUHJDUGLQJWKH3LVWKH

SRVVLELOLW\RILQWHUDFWLQJZLWK8$6RUHYHQODXQFKLQJDQGFRQWUROOLQJWKHPGLUHFWO\WRH[SDQG

WKHRSHUDWLQJDUHDSRWHQWLDOO\WRDFWDVDFRPPXQLFDWLRQVUHOD\RUHYHQGHOHJDWHGPDJQHWLF

DQRPDO\GHWHFWLRQ/LNHZLVHWKH8$6FRXOGEHILWWHGWROD\H[WUDVRQREXR\VIRUWKH0$¶V

XVHVXSSRUWLQJWKHKLJKHUXVDJHUDWHVGHVFULEHGE\3HUNLQVDQGGLVFXVVHGHDUOLHULQWKLVSDSHU,Q

DQ\RIWKHVHFRQFHSWVKRZHYHUWKHWLPHRQVWDWLRQIRURQERDUGSHUVRQQHOLVH[WHQGHGZKLFK

ZRXOGZLWKRXW0/RU$,DXJPHQWDWLRQOLNHO\RIIVHWWKHSRWHQWLDOFUHZUHGXFWLRQVSURPLVHGE\

PRUHHIILFLHQWVHQVRUVDQGLQFUHDVHGSURFHVVLQJFDSDELOLW\

:LWKWKHWUDQVLWLRQIURPDQDORJWDSHWRGLJLWDOV\VWHPVFRRSHUDWLQJ$6:QDWLRQV

UHFRJQL]HGWKDWWKH\ORVWWKHDELOLW\WRVKDUHDFRXVWLFLQIRUPDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHLUSODWIRUPV:LWK



1$720$625$

,ELG

1$720$625

-RKQ.HOOHU%RHLQJWR,QWHJUDWH([WUD&UHZ:RUNVWDWLRQVLQ8SJUDGHWR3$3RVHLGRQ0DULWLPH
6XUYHLOODQFH$LUFUDIW0LOLWDU\DQG$HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV$XJXVW
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPFRPSXWHUVDUWLFOHSDSRVHLGRQFUHZZRUNVWDWLRQVXSJUDGH1$72
0$625$

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


QDWLRQVVLJQLQJRQWRFRPPRQSODWIRUPVVXFKDVWKH3RUWKH1$720$WKHUHVHHPVWREH

DQDFNQRZOHGJHPHQWIRUWKHQHHGWRUHWXUQWRFRPPRQGDWDIRUPDWVDQGDEHWWHUDELOLW\WRVKDUH

LQIRUPDWLRQ,IWKHIXWXUHRI$6:LVD³1HWZRUN&HQWULF%DVHG$6:)RUFHFRRUGLQDWLRQ´WKHQ

DQDELOLW\WRFRQWLQXRXVO\VKDUHLQIRUPDWLRQDPRQJDOOXQLWVDQGEHWZHHQWKHLUVHQVRUVRUEHWWHU

LQWHURSHUDELOLW\ZLOOEHQHFHVVDU\

Interoperability

1$72KDVJHQHUDWHGKXQGUHGVRI6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ$JUHHPHQWV 67$1$* IRUV\VWHPVLQ

RUGHUWRHQVXUHDFRPPRQVWDQGDUGDQGWRVRPHH[WHQWLQWHURSHUDELOLW\)XWXUHVRQREXR\VIRU

H[DPSOHDUHSODQQHGWRHDFKKDYHWKHLURZQ,3DGGUHVVLQRUGHUWRPLQLPL]H5)LQWHUIHUHQFHDQG

ZLOOEHGHVLJQHGEDVHGRQDQDJUHHGIRUPDWIRUVKDUHGXVHE\SDUWQHUV7KLVZLOOFHUWDLQO\

H[WHQGWRRWKHUVHQVRUVDQGDVSUHYLRXVO\GLVFXVVHGHQWLUHDLUFUDIWDQGQDYDOSODWIRUPV

:KHQQDWLRQVLQFRUSRUDWH0/DQG$,LQWRWKHLU$6:DVVHWVWKH\ZLOODOVRQHHGWR

HQVXUHWKDWVKDULQJRILQIRUPDWLRQLVFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIPLVVLRQGDWDILOHVDQG

DOJRULWKPV,QWKHH[DPSOHRIDµEODFNER[¶0/V\VWHPWKDWFDUULHVRXWFDOFXODWLRQVDQGDGYLVHV

WKHFUHZRQERDUGWKDWLWKDVIRXQGDVXEPDULQHDQDLUFUDIWWUDFNLQJWKDWVXEPDULQHZRXOGQHHGD

PHWKRGWRSDVVWKHSHUWLQHQWLQIRUPDWLRQWRDUHOLHYLQJDLUFUDIWLQFOXGLQJWKHIUHTXHQFLHVDQG

SDUDPHWHUVLWLVXVLQJWRFDUU\RXWWKHWUDFNLQJ$SDUDOOHOWRWKLVKDVEHHQLGHQWLILHGZLWKWKH

DGRSWLRQE\VHYHUDOFRXQWULHVRIWKH)2QWKDWSODWIRUPPLVVLRQGDWDILOHVQHHGWR³EH

XSGDWHGEHIRUHHDFKVRUWLHWRHQVXUHRSWLPXPFRPEDWHIIHFWLYHQHVVDQGDLUFUDIWVXUYLYDELOLW\´

ZLWKHDFKQDWLRQSUHSDULQJLWVRZQILOHVGXHWRWKHLULQKHUHQWVHQVLWLYHLQWHOOLJHQFHGDWD



:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

1$720$625$

3HWHU/D\WRQ)LIWK*HQHUDWLRQ$LU:DUIDUH

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


,QGLVFXVVLQJWKHYDULDWLRQRIDFRXVWLFSURFHVVRUVRQWKHYDULHW\RI$6:DLUERUQHDQG

QDYDOSODWIRUPV3HUNLQVSRLQWVRXWWKDW³WDUJHWFODVVLILFDWLRQFDSDELOLW\E\HDFKGHWHFWLRQVHQVRU

DOVRUHPDLQVZLWKLQQDWLRQDOFKDQQHOV´)RUWKLVWRFKDQJHFRPPRQV\VWHPVDQGGDWDIRU

PLVVLRQSODQQLQJLQFOXGLQJRFHDQRJUDSKLFSUHGLFWLRQZRXOGQHHGWREHHVWDEOLVKHG

$GGLWLRQDOO\LQGLVFXVVLQJILIWKJHQHUDWLRQILJKWHUV/D\WRQSRLQWVRXWWKDWLQDFRQIOLFW

SODWIRUPVZLOOWU\WRFKDQJHWKHLUHPLVVLRQVLJQDWXUHV³WRJDLQVRPHWDFWLFDODGYDQWDJH´7KLV

FRXOGEHH[WUDSRODWHGWRWKHFDVHRI$6:ZKHUHVXEPDULQHVZRXOGFHUWDLQO\DWWHPSWWRFKDQJH

WKHLURSHUDWLQJSDUDPHWHUVWRDYRLGEHLQJGHWHFWHGDQGFODVVLILHG/D\WRQDUJXHVWKDWLQWKLVFDVH

XQWLOWKHDGYHUVDU\¶VVLJQDWXUHLVGHWHUPLQHGWKHDOJRULWKPVZLOOEHVHDUFKLQJIRUWKHZURQJ

SDUDPHWHUVDQGWKDW³LQFRUUHFWLQIRUPDWLRQHQWHUHGLQWRWKHQHWZRUN´E\XVHUVRUDOJRULWKPVZLOO

EHGLVVHPLQDWHGWRDOORWKHUXVHUVRQWKHQHWZRUNSRWHQWLDOO\FUHDWLQJDQ³LQDFFXUDWHFRPPRQ

SLFWXUH´)XUWKHUPRUHDVQDWLRQVXSGDWHWKHLUGDWDILOHVDQGDOJRULWKPVWKHRGGVWKDWVKDUHG

GHWHFWLRQDQGWUDFNLQJDOJRULWKPVZLOOEHJLQWRGHYLDWHEHWZHHQQDWLRQVDVVRIWZDUHEORFNVDUH

XSGDWHGLQFUHDVHVSRWHQWLDOO\QHJDWLYHO\LPSDFWLQJLQWHURSHUDELOLW\

1$72¶V0$625WDFNOHVWKLVFKDOOHQJHVRPHZKDWE\HVWDEOLVKLQJWKHLPSRUWDQFHRI

HVWDEOLVKLQJDSSURSULDWH67$1$*VWRHQDEOHLQWHURSHUDELOLW\WR³VXSSRUWH[FKDQJHDQG

FROODERUDWLYHXVHRIVXUYHLOODQFHGDWDDQGLQIRUPDWLRQ´EXWLWUHPDLQVWREHVHHQH[DFWO\ZKDW

LQIRUPDWLRQZLOOEHVKDUHGDQGZKDWZLOOEHJXDUGHGDWWKHQDWLRQDOOHYHO8OWLPDWHO\QDWLRQV

KDYHWKHLURZQUHVWULFWLRQVRQZKDWDFRXVWLFLQWHOOLJHQFH $&,17 FDQEHVKDUHGZLWKZKLFK

QDWLRQVEXWLQRUGHUWRDGRSWVKDUHG0/GDWDEDVHVDQGV\VWHPVWKDWFDQWUXO\IXVHGDWDDQG



:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

3HWHU/D\WRQ)LIWK*HQHUDWLRQ$LU:DUIDUH

,ELG

,ELG

1$720$625

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


FROODERUDWHDFURVVSODWIRUPVWKHVKDULQJRIFRPPRQVRIWZDUHGDWDDQGDOJRULWKPVZLOOEH

H[WUHPHO\LPSRUWDQW


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 8: CANADIAN INITIATIVES

&DQDGDLVDOHDGHULQ$,KDYLQJUHOHDVHGWKHILUVWQDWLRQDO$,VWUDWHJ\LQDQG

FRQVLVWHQWO\DSSHDULQJKLJKLQUDQNLQJVRIWRSFRXQWULHVIRU$,UHVHDUFK3UHYLRXVFKDSWHUV

KDYHKLJKOLJKWHGWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFK&DQDGD¶V'DWD6WUDWHJ\'HIHQFH3ROLF\DQG01'PDQGDWH

OHWWHUVHHNWRLQWHJUDWH0/DQG$,WHFKQRORJLHVLQWRPLOLWDU\SODWIRUPV:KLOHPXFKRIWKHIRFXV

LQWKHVHGRFXPHQWVLVRQPDQDJLQJWKHODUJHIORZLIGDWDIURPIXWXUHSODWIRUPVDQGZLWKLQWKH

EXUHDXFUDF\RIWKHRUJDQL]DWLRQLWVHOIDVXPPDU\RIWKHVWDWXVDQGIXWXUHSODQVIRU$6:VSHFLILF

SODWIRUPVDQGWKHLUSRWHQWLDOWRXWLOL]H0/IROORZV

Aircraft

+DYLQJMXVWUHDFKHG,QWHULP2SHUDWLRQDO&DSDELOLW\LQDQGSURMHFWHGWREHIXOO\

RSHUDWLRQDOO\FDSDEOHLQWKH&+&\FORQHLV&DQDGD¶VQHZHVW$6:SODWIRUP7KH

VWDQGDUGFUHZIRUWKH&\FORQHLVWZRSLORWVRQH$&627$&&2DQGDVLQJOH6HQVRU2SHUDWRU

UHVSRQVLEOHIRUDQXPEHURIOHDGLQJHGJHVHQVRUVLQFOXGLQJSDVVLYHDFRXVWLFVDQGWKH+(/5$6

DFWLYH621$5FODLPHGWREHWKH³KLJKHVWSHUIRUPDQFHKHOLFRSWHUGLSSLQJ621$5LQWKH

ZRUOG´,IWKHDGYHUWLVHGSHUIRUPDQFHRIRWKHUPRGHUQHTXLYDOHQWVLVDFFXUDWHWKLVFRXOG

HQWDLODQLQFUHDVHLQ³GHWHFWLRQUDQJHVIURPWKUHHWRVHYHQWLPHVWKDWRIOHJDF\V\VWHPV´7KH

621$5LVDOVRFODLPHGWREHLQWHURSHUDEOH³ZLWKVKLSERDUG621$5VDQGVRQREXR\VLQELVWDWLF

RUPXOWLVWDWLFHPSOR\PHQW´7KHDGRSWLRQRI0/DOJRULWKPVWRRSWLPDOO\SURFHVVSDVVLYHDQG



2[IRUG,QVLJKWV³*RYHUQPHQW$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH5HDGLQHVV,QGH[´2[IRUGLQVLJKWVFRPDFFHVVHG
0D\KWWSVZZZR[IRUGLQVLJKWVFRPDLUHDGLQHVV$OH[DQGUD0RXVDYL]DGHK$OH[L0RVWURXVDQG$OH[
&ODUN³7KH*OREDO$,,QGH[7KH$UPV5DFH´+HQNHO9HQWXUHV$FFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVPHPEHUVWRUWRLVHPHGLDFRPJOREDODLLQGH[FRQWHQWKWPO

/7HFKQRORJLHV³+(/5$6'6±+HOLFRSWHU/RQJ5DQJH$FWLYH6RQDU´DFFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVZZZOWFRPRFHDQV\VWHPVKHOUDVBGVKWP

-HII%HQVRQ³$QHZHUDLQ$QWL6XEPDULQHZDUIDUH´861,1HZV$XJXVW
KWWSVQHZVXVQLRUJRSLQLRQQHZHUDDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUH

/7HFKQRORJLHV³+(/5$6'6±+HOLFRSWHU/RQJ5DQJH$FWLYH6RQDU´

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


DFWLYH621$5VLQSDUWLFXODUPXOWLVWDWLFRSHUDWLRQVZRXOGDXJPHQWWKHFDSDELOLW\RIWKHVLQJOH

VHQVRURSHUDWRUDQGZRXOGDUJXDEO\RSWLPL]HIXVLRQRIGDWDZLWKDQGIURPRWKHUSODWIRUPV

7KH&3$XURUDLQVHUYLFHVLQFHKDVXQGHUJRQHQXPHURXVXSJUDGHVWR

PRGHUQL]HLWVVHQVRUVXLWHDQGKDVUHFHLYHGPRGLILFDWLRQVWRH[WHQGLWVVHUYLFHOLIHXQWLO

&DQDGD¶VSURMHFWWRUHSODFHWKH$XURUDLVLQWKHYHU\HDUO\VWDJHVDQGQR6WDWHPHQWRI

5HTXLUHPHQWVH[LVWV\HWEXW66(VSHFLILFDOO\PHQWLRQVUHFDSLWDOL]DWLRQRIWKH&3IOHHW

*LYHQWKDW&DQDGDKDVVLJQHGRQWRWKH1$720$IRUXPLWFDQEHDVVXPHGWKDWDQ\

UHSODFHPHQWIRUWKH$XURUDZLOOKDYHVLPLODUUHTXLUHPHQWVWRWKRVHRXWOLQHGIRU0$HOVHZKHUH

LQWKLVSDSHU$VSUHYLRXVO\GLVFXVVHGWKHVHUHTXLUHPHQWVGRQRWVSHFLILFDOO\UHIHUWR$,RU

0/V\VWHPVRQERDUGEXWGRH[WHQVLYHO\PHQWLRQDGYDQFHVLQVHQVRUVDQGFRPSXWHUSURFHVVLQJ

FDSDELOLW\)RUKXPDQRSHUDWRUVWKHFKDOOHQJHRIGHDOLQJZLWKWKHYROXPHRILQIRUPDWLRQEHLQJ

JHQHUDWHGE\WKHFXUUHQWYHUVLRQRIWKH&3ZLOORQO\LQFUHDVHZLWKWKHDGRSWLRQRIWKHODWHVW

EORFNRIXSJUDGHVDQGZLOOFHUWDLQO\EHDFRQVLGHUDWLRQZLWKDQ\UHSODFHPHQWSODWIRUP:KLOH

WDFWLFVDUHFRQWLQXDOO\EHLQJGHYHORSHGWRDFFRXQWIRU³WKHYROXPHRILQIRUPDWLRQQRZEHLQJ

JHQHUDWHGE\WKHVHQVRUV\VWHPV´RIWKHXSJUDGHG&3KXPDQRSHUDWRUVFRXOGEHFRPHD

OLPLWLQJIDFWRURQZKDWFXUUHQWRUIXWXUH&DQDGLDQ$6:DLUFUDIWFDQDFKLHYHJLYHQWKHXQWDSSHG

SRWHQWLDORIWKHV\VWHPVRQERDUG

,QHQYLVLRQLQJWKHEUHDGWKRIDFRXVWLF$(62SWDVNVDQ0/V\VWHPZRXOGQHHGWR

DFKLHYHWKHFXUUHQWFRQILJXUDWLRQRIWKH&3GRHVQRWKDYHODUJHDPRXQWVRIHPSW\VSDFHIRU



&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH³&3$XURUD)OHHW0RGHUQL]DWLRQDQG/LIH([WHQVLRQ´
DFFHVVHG$SULOKWWSVZZZFDQDGDFDHQGHSDUWPHQWQDWLRQDOGHIHQFHVHUYLFHVSURFXUHPHQWFS
DXURUDKWPO

&DQDGD6WURQJ6HFXUH(QJDJHG

'DYLG'RQDOG³1$72-RLQW7DQNHU7UDQVSRUWDQG03$3URJUDPV$GYDQFH´$,12QOLQH)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZDLQRQOLQHFRPDYLDWLRQQHZVGHIHQVHQDWRMRLQWWDQNHUWUDQVSRUWDQGPSDSURJUDPV
DGYDQFH

&KULV7KDWFKHU6XEPDULQH+XQWHU5&$)7RGD\
KWWSVDUP\FDIRUXPVLQGH[SKS"DFWLRQ GODWWDFKWRSLF DWWDFK 

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


WKHDGGLWLRQRIFRPSXWLQJHTXLSPHQW,IKRZHYHUWKHWZRHQWLUHFUHZVWDWLRQVIRU$FRXVWLF

6HQVRU2SHUDWRUVZHUHWREHUHPRYHGHQWLUHO\LQFOXGLQJGHVNVSDFHPRQLWRUVFKDLUVDQGWKH

SURWHFWLYHHTXLSPHQWIRUWKHRSHUDWRUVDORQJZLWKQRWKDYLQJWZRRUPRUHRSHUDWRUVRQERDUG

HDFKPLVVLRQKXQGUHGVRINLORJUDPVDQGVHYHUDOVTXDUHPHWHUVFRXOGEHIUHHGXSZKLFKZRXOG

OLNHO\EHQHFHVVDU\JLYHQWKHVL]HDQGVSDFHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUWKHFRPSXWLQJSRZHUWKDWZRXOGEH

UHTXLUHG2QDQH[WJHQHUDWLRQSODWIRUPWKHVHFRQVLGHUDWLRQVFRXOGEHPDGHZKLOHWKHSODWIRUP

LVEHLQJGHVLJQHGHLWKHUIRUDQHZEXLOGRUWREHHDVLO\UHWURILWWHGRQFHDV\VWHPLVUHDG\VRWKDW

SRZHUZHLJKWEDODQFHDQGFHQWUHRIJUDYLW\FKDOOHQJHVFRXOGEHDYRLGHG

Halifax Class Frigate

7KH+DOLID[FODVVIULJDWHVKDYHEHHQLQVHUYLFHZLWKWKH5&1VLQFHDQGKDYHJRQH

WKURXJKDPRGHUQL]DWLRQSURMHFWZKLFKLQFOXGHGXSJUDGHVWRV\VWHPVDGGLWLRQRIQHZ

FDSDELOLWLHVDQGH[WHQGHGWKHVHUYLFHOLIHRXWXQWLOWKHGHOLYHU\RIWKHQH[WJHQHUDWLRQRIVKLSV

7KH\DUH³PXOWLSXUSRVHSODWIRUPV´GHVLJQHGDQGEXLOWLQWKHODWWHUVWDJHVRIWKH&ROG:DUZLWK

DQHPSKDVLVRQ$6:WR³RSHUDWHLQWKH1RUWKHUQ$WODQWLFDQGILQG6RYLHWQXFOHDU

VXEPDULQHV´7KHVKLSV¶$6:V\VWHPVDUHEHLQJXSJUDGHGWKURXJKWKH8QGHUZDWHU:DUIDUH

6XLWH8SJUDGH 8:68 ZKLFKLQFOXGHVDQHZ7RZHG$UUD\621$5+XOO0RXQWHG621$5V

DQGWKH7RUSHGR621$5,QWHUFHSW &ODVVLILFDWLRQV\VWHPZKLFKFDQGHWHFW621$5IURP

HQHP\WRUSHGRHVDQG³RIIHUXQLTXHFDSDELOLWLHVDQGZRUOGOHDGLQJSHUIRUPDQFH´

7KHLPSURYHGVHQVRUVDQG621$5V³ZLOOEHDEOHWRGHWHFWTXLHWHUWDUJHWVDWLQFUHDVHG

UDQJHVSURYLGLQJWKHJUHDWHVWSRVVLEOHGHWHFWLRQFDSDELOLW\WRSURWHFWVKLSVIURPXQGHUZDWHU

WKUHDWV´ZKLFK³LQFUHDVHVWKHZLQGRZRSHUDWRUVDQGFRPPDQGWHDPVKDYHIRUGHFLVLRQ



&DQDGD5R\DO&DQDGLDQ1DY\³&DQDGLDQ3DWURO)ULJDWHV´$FFHVVHG0D\KWWSZZZQDY\
PDULQHIRUFHVJFFDHQIOHHWXQLWVIULJDWHVKRPHSDJH

&DQDGD³8QGHUZDWHU:DUIDUH6XLWH8SJUDGH3URWHFWV6DLORUV)URP4XLHWHU6XEPDULQHVDQG7RUSHGRHV´

,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


PDNLQJ´7KLVV\VWHPZKLOHKLJKO\DGYDQFHGVWLOOUHOLHVRQKXPDQVHQVRURSHUDWRUVWR

LQWHUSUHWWKHLQFRPLQJLQIRUPDWLRQ$VGLVFXVVHGWKURXJKRXWWKLVSDSHULQWHJUDWLRQRI0/

V\VWHPVZLWKFDSDEOHVHQVRUVFRXOGDOORZRSWLPXPSHUIRUPDQFHLQ$6:VFHQDULRV

Canadian Surface Combatant

7KH&DQDGLDQ6XUIDFH&RPEDWDQW &6& ZLOOEHWKHUHSODFHPHQWIRUWKH+DOLID[&ODVV

ZLWKGHOLYHULHVSODQQHGEHJLQQLQJLQWKHPLGVDQGFRQWLQXLQJXQWLOWKHODWHV7KH

7\SHGHVLJQZLOOIHDWXUHDQ³DFRXVWLFDOO\TXLHWKXOO´DQG³DQDGYDQFHG621$5V\VWHPZLWK

DWRZHGDUUD\V\VWHPIRUWUDFNLQJVXEPDULQHV´%H\RQGWKHVHGHWDLOVQRWPXFKLVNQRZQ

DERXWLWVSODQQHGVHQVRUV\VWHPVH[FHSWWKDWWKH5&1KDVH[SOLFLWO\VWDWHGWKDWLWLV³QRW

SXUVXLQJDQ\$,WKDWLVFRQQHFWHGWRHPSOR\LQJZHDSRQV\VWHPV´7KLVSDSHUKDVDUJXHG

WKURXJKRXWWKDW0/VKRXOGEHXVHGWRSURYLGHGHFLVLRQPDNHUVZLWKKLJKTXDOLW\LQIRUPDWLRQWR

LQIRUPWDFWLFDOGHFLVLRQV:LWKWKHFDSDELOLW\RIVHQVRUVWKDWZLOOH[LVWE\WKHWLPHWKHILQDOVKLSV

DUHGHOLYHUHGDQGWKHUDSLGDGYDQFHVLQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHDQG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJLWVHHPV

FHUWDLQWKDWWKH&6&ZLOOLQFRUSRUDWH0/IRUVHQVRURSHUDWLRQDWVRPHSRLQWLQLWVOLIHVSDQEXWWR

ZKDWGHJUHHDQGZKHQLV\HWWREHGHWHUPLQHG$VDFHQWUDO$6:SODWIRUPLQWHURSHUDELOLW\

ZLWKDOOLHVDQGIXWXUHDLUFUDIWZLOOEHHVVHQWLDODQGIRUHVLJKWDQGVLJQLILFDQWSODQQLQJZLOOQHHGWR

RFFXUWRHQVXUHWKHVHFDSDELOLWLHVFDQEHVXFFHVVIXOO\LQWHJUDWHG

Victoria Class Submarines



,ELG

&DQDGD*RYHUQPHQWRI&DQDGD³&DQDGLDQ6XUIDFH&RPEDWDQW´$FFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVZZZFDQDGDFDHQGHSDUWPHQWQDWLRQDOGHIHQFHVHUYLFHVSURFXUHPHQWFDQDGLDQVXUIDFHFRPEDWDQWKWPO

'DYLG'XQORS³)XWXUH3URRILQJWKH7\SH)ULJDWH´&DQDGLDQ1DYDO5HYLHZ9ROXPH1XPEHU
6SULQJ

-DPHV0F/HRG³&DQDGD¶V1DY\LV'HYHORSLQJDQ$,9RLFH$VVLVWDQWIRU:DUVKLSVEXW'RQ¶W:RUU\,W
:RQ¶W&RQWUROWKH:HDSRQV´)LQDQFLDO3RVW0D\KWWSVEXVLQHVVILQDQFLDOSRVWFRPWHFKQRORJ\FDQDGDV
QDY\LVGHYHORSLQJDQDLYRLFHDVVLVWDQWIRUZDUVKLSVEXWGRQWZRUU\LWZRQWFRQWUROWKHZHDSRQV

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


66(LGHQWLILHVWKH9LFWRULD&ODVVVXEPDULQHV 9&6 DVDNH\HOHPHQWRIPDULWLPHGRPDLQ

DZDUHQHVVWKURXJKWKHLUVXEVXUIDFHVXUYHLOODQFHUROHDQGKLJKOLJKWVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHLUUROH

LQVRYHUHLJQW\RSHUDWLRQVDQGFRQWLQHQWDOGHIHQFH7KHIRXUVXEPDULQHVZKLFKZHUHEURXJKW

LQWRVHUYLFHE\&DQDGDEHJLQQLQJLQZHUHVFKHGXOHGWRUHDFKWKHLUHQGRIVHUYLFHOLYHV

EHJLQQLQJLQEXWZLOOQRZXQGHUJRDQLQFUHPHQWDOPRGHUQL]DWLRQSURJUDPPH³ZKLFKZLOO

HQVXUHWKHLUFRQWLQXHGHIIHFWLYHQHVVRXWWRWKHPLGV´7KH9&6DFRXVWLFVHQVRUVLQFOXGH

DQDFWLYHSDVVLYHERZ621$5DWRZHGDUUD\V\VWHPDQGDIODQNDUUD\ZKLFKLVVODWHGIRU

XSJUDGHLQWKH9LFWRULD&ODVV0RGHUQL]DWLRQ3URJUDPLQRUGHUWRDFKLHYH³EHWWHUGHWHFWLRQDQG

SHUIRUPDQFH´,WLVXQOLNHO\WKDW0/LVEHLQJFRQVLGHUHGIRUDGGLWLRQWRWKHXSJUDGHGV\VWHPV

JLYHQWKHSRVLWLRQRIWKH5&1DJDLQVWLQFRUSRUDWLQJ$,EXWDVZLWKWKHQH[WJHQHUDWLRQRI

VXUIDFHVKLSVLWPD\EHHVVHQWLDOWRIXUWKHULPSURYHWKHRSHUDWLQJFDSDFLW\RIWKH621$5

V\VWHPVDQGPDQDJHWKHDPRXQWRILQIRUPDWLRQJHQHUDWHGRQERDUG

Shore-Based

621$52SVDQG$(62SVDUHDOVRHPSOR\HGLQDFRXVWLFDQDO\VLVUROHVDWWKH1DYDO

2FHDQ3URFHVVLQJ)DFLOLW\ 123) DW:KLGEH\,VODQGLQWKH86DWWKH$FRXVWLF'DWD$QDO\VLV

&HQWUH $'$& GHSDUWPHQWRIWKH7ULQLW\1DYDO,QWHOOLJHQFHXQLWLQ+DOLID["DQGDW$FRXVWLF

6HQVRU$QDO\VLV $6$ VHFWLRQVRQPDULWLPHKHOLFRSWHUDQGORQJUDQJHSDWUROKRPH:LQJV

$W123):KLGEH\,VODQGWKH&$)SHUVRQQHODVVLVWLQSURYLGLQJ³WLPHO\DQGDFFXUDWH

DFRXVWLFFXHLQJWRRSHUDWLQJDQGVXSSRUWLQJIRUFHVDQGFRQGXFWFRQWLQXRXVPDULWLPH

VXUYHLOODQFH´E\DQDO\]LQJLQIRUPDWLRQIURPHLWKHUWKHILYH6XUYHLOODQFH7RZHG$UUD\6HQVRU



&DQDGD6WURQJ6HFXUH(QJDJHG&DQDGD¶V'HIHQVH3ROLF\

/HH%HUWKLDXPH³&DQDGLDQ1DY\'HFLGHVWR6WDUW8SJUDGHVWR([WHQG/LIHRI$JLQJ6XEPDULQH)OHHW´
1DWLRQDO3RVW-DQXDU\KWWSVQDWLRQDOSRVWFRPQHZVSROLWLFVFDQDGLDQQDY\SUHVVLQJDKHDGRQOLIH
H[WHQVLRQVIRUVXEPDULQHV&DQDGD6WURQJ6HFXUH(QJDJHG&DQDGD¶V'HIHQVH3ROLF\

&DQDGD3XEOLF:RUNVDQG*RYHUQPHQW6HUYLFHV&DQDGD³5),3URYLVLRQRID)ODQN$UUD\6\VWHP±
9LFWRULDFODVV0RGHUQL]DWLRQ 9&0  :$ ´$FFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVEX\DQGVHOOJFFDSURFXUHPHQWGDWDWHQGHUQRWLFH3:9&0

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


6\VWHP 6857$66 VKLSVZKLFKRSHUDWHDWRZHGK\GURSKRQHDUUD\RYHUIHHWORQJRU

ZRUNLQJRQWKHRSHUDWLRQVZDWFKIORRUZKLFKPRQLWRUVDQHWZRUNRIIL[HGDUUD\V

$W$'$&DQG$6$WKH\DQDO\]HUHFRUGHGDFRXVWLFLQIRUPDWLRQIURPRSHUDWLRQDO

SODWIRUPVWRGHULYHDFRXVWLFLQWHOOLJHQFHDQGDVVHVVVXEPDULQHDQGRWKHUFRQWDFWHQFRXQWHUHGE\

RSHUDWRUVZKLFKLVWKHQIHGEDFNLQWRLQWHOOLJHQFHDQGWUDLQLQJSURGXFWVDQGGHEULHIVWRFUHZVWR

SUHSDUHWKHPIRUIROORZRQPLVVLRQV

,QDQ\RIWKHVHSRVLWLRQVLQFRUSRUDWLRQRI0/WRDQDO\]HWKHH[WHQVLYHDFRXVWLFGDWD

FRPLQJLQWRWKHIDFLOLWLHVZRXOGVLJQLILFDQWO\H[SDQGWKHFDSDELOLW\RIWKHVHRUJDQL]DWLRQVWR

LQFUHDVHWKHLURXWSXWVLQWHUPVRIWDFWLFDODGYLFHDQGLQWHOOLJHQFHSURGXFWVWRKLJKHUFRPPDQG

DQGWKHRQSODWIRUPRSHUDWRUV



8QLWHG6WDWHV1DY\³1DYDO2FHDQ3URFHVVLQJ)DFLOLW\:KLGEH\,VODQG:$´DFFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVZZZSXEOLFQDY\PLOVXEIRUFXV3DJHV123):,DVS[:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH
:DUIDUH

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 9: TRANSFERRABLE INITIATIVES

7KHUHLVOLWWOHLQGLFDWLRQWKDWWKHSULPDU\PHWKRGVRIFRQGXFWLQJ$6:ZLOOGHYLDWHIURP

PHWKRGVH[SORLWLQJVRXQGLQZDWHUVSHFLILFDOO\SDVVLYHDQGDFWLYHDFRXVWLFVHPSOR\HGLQFR

RUGLQDWLRQZLWKRWKHUVHQVRUV7KHUHDUHKRZHYHUVHYHUDOLQLWLDWLYHVEHLQJH[SORUHGWKDWKROG

SRWHQWLDOWRDWWKHOHDVWFRPSOHPHQWFXUUHQWWHFKQRORJLHVLIQRWUHSODFHWKHPRXWULJKW

7KHFRQFHSWRI3HUYDVLYH6RXQG7HFKQRORJ\ZKLFKZRXOGVHHDQHWZRUNRIVKLSVEXR\V

VXEPDULQHVDQGRWKHUSODWIRUPVOLQNHGWKURXJKDGYDQFHGQHWZRUNVDVDVLQJOHV\VWHPUDWKHUWKDQ

WKHFXUUHQWFROOHFWLRQRIVWDQGDORQHV\VWHPVLVVHHQDSUREDEOHQH[WERXQGLQ$6::KLOH

VWLOOXVLQJVRXQGDVDSULPDU\VRXUFHRIGHWHFWLRQDQGWUDFNLQJVXFKDQHWZRUNZRXOGHQWDLOWKH

FRUUHODWLRQRIVLJQLILFDQWO\PRUHGDWDWKDQLVFXUUHQWO\SURFHVVHGE\KXPDQRSHUDWRUVLQFOXGLQJ

QRWRQO\VRXQGVRXUFHVDQGORFDWLRQLQIRUPDWLRQEXWWKHDGYDQFHGDQDO\VLVRIRFHDQRJUDSK\DQG

VRXQGVRXUFHOHYHOVDFURVVPXOWLSOHVHQVRUVLQUHDOWLPHDWDVNSHUIHFWO\VXLWHGIRU$,PHWKRGV

,QDGGLWLRQWR0XOWL6WDWLF$FWLYHSURFHVVLQJZKLFKKDVSUHYLRXVO\EHHQGLVFXVVHGDQG

ZKLFKDOVRHQWDLOVWKHFORVHFRRUGLQDWLRQRILQIRUPDWLRQDFURVVSODWIRUPVUHVHDUFKLVEHLQJ

FDUULHGRXWLQWRHQWLUHO\GLIIHUHQWW\SHVRI621$5SXOVHV7ZLQ,QYHUWHG3XOVH621$5

7:,36 IRUH[DPSOHLVEDVHGRQWKHQDWXUDO621$5XVHGE\GROSKLQV5HVHDUFKKDVVKRZQ

³WKDWDGXDOVWUHDPRIXQGHUZDWHUSXOVHVFDQSHQHWUDWHEXEEOHVPRUHHIIHFWLYHO\WKDQ

FRQYHQWLRQDO621$5DQGSURYLGHDVLJQLILFDQWO\EHWWHUGHWHFWLRQUDWH±DWOHDVWXQGHUODERUDWRU\

FRQGLWLRQV´

$QRWKHUUHVHDUFKSURMHFWEDVHGRQQDWXUDOSURFHVVHVWRLQWHUSUHWKXPDQDFWLYLW\ZDVWKH

LQLWLDWLYHLQDQGWRILWDOEDWURVVHVZLWKVHQVRUVDQG*36ORJJHUVWRPRQLWRUILVKLQJDQG



:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

*DUHWK(YDQV³&DWDQG0RXVH7KH$UWRI6XEPDULQH'HWHFWLRQ´1DYDO7HFKQRORJ\FRP-XQH
KWWSVZZZQDYDOWHFKQRORJ\FRPIHDWXUHVIHDWXUH


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


RWKHUPDULWLPHDFWLYLW\,WZDVGLVFRYHUHGWKDWRQHWKLUGRIYHVVHOVLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOZDWHUVKDG

QR$,6VLJQDOFUHDWLQJDGLVFUHSDQF\EHWZHHQWKHUHSRUWHGQXPEHURIVKLSVZLWKLGHQWLI\LQJ

LQIRUPDWLRQDQGDFWXDOVKLSVSUHVHQW0LOLWDU\VXUYHLOODQFHDLUFUDIWVXFKDVWKH&3

GHGLFDWHWLPHWRFRUUHODWLQJWDFWLFDOSORWVDQGRWKHUVHQVRUVZLWK$,6GDWDWRGHGXFHZKLFK

YHVVHOVDUHRSHUDWLQJZKHUHDQGE\H[WHQVLRQZKLFKUHWXUQVFRXOGEHVXEPDULQHVRURWKHU

YHVVHOVRILQWHUHVW+DUQHVVLQJQDWXUDOSURFHVVHVOLNHVHDOLIHPRYHPHQWE\DGGLQJDVHQVLQJ

FDSDELOLW\KDVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRFODULI\WKHVWDWXVRIWKHRSHUDWLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOWKRXJKLWZRXOG

FRPHZLWKDQLQFUHDVHGLQIRUPDWLRQPDQDJHPHQWZRUNORDGZKLFKFRXOGEHRIIVHWE\XVLQJ0/

V\VWHPVWRFRUUHODWHDQGIXVHWKHGDWD

$NLQWROHYHUDJLQJIORFNVRIELUGVDVVHQVRUSODWIRUPVWKHFRQFHSWRIXVLQJDIRUPDWLRQ

RIGURQHVIRU$6:KDVEHHQSURSRVHGZKLFKZRXOGXVHDOORZWRUHSRVLWLRQLQJRIRXWRIUDQJH

VHQVRUVWRUHJDLQDFRXVWLFFRQWDFW:KLOHWKHVHFRXOGEHFRPPDQGHGE\KXPDQVRQD

SODWIRUPWKLVZRXOGLQFUHDVHWKHZRUNORDGRQRSHUDWRUVZKHUHDVOHYHUDJLQJ$,DQG0/WRROVWR

DOORZWKHPWRGHWHUPLQHWKHEHVWSRVLWLRQIRUVHQVRUVFRUUHODWHWKHLQFRPLQJDFRXVWLFGDWDDQG

VHOIV\QFKURQL]HRSWLPXPSRVLWLRQLQJZRXOGDUJXDEO\RSWLPL]HHPSOR\PHQWRIWKLVFRQFHSW

7KHXVHRIVSDFHEDVHGDVVHWVKDVDOVREHHQLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWR$6:DQGDQHYHU

LQFUHDVLQJQXPEHURISRWHQWLDOVHQVRUVLVEHLQJH[SORUHGWRVHDUFKIRUDQGWUDFNVXEPDULQHV

)URPWUDFNLQJRIVXUIDFHPDULWLPHWUDIILFYLD5$'$56$7VDWHOOLWHVZKLFK³ZLOODOORZXV

>&DQDGD@WRWUDFNPDULWLPHWUDIILFRYHUPXFKODUJHUVZDWKHVRIRFHDQDQGSURYLGHIRUPRUH

WLPHO\LGHQWLILFDWLRQRIYHVVHOVWKDWPD\UHTXLUHIXUWKHUVFUXWLQ\´WRDWWHPSWLQJWR³GHWHFWWKH



(PLO\&KXQJ³$OEDWURVVHVXVHGDVIO\LQJVSLHVWRGHWHFWLOOHJDOILVKLQJERDWV´&%&1HZV-DQ
KWWSVZZZFEFFDQHZVWHFKQRORJ\DOEDWURVVHVLOOHJDOILVKLQJ

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


PLQXWHFKDQJHVLQRFHDQVXUIDFHOHYHOGXHWRWKHGHHSSDVVLQJRIDVXEPDULQH´WKHUHDUHVHYHUDO

ZD\VWKDWVSDFHEDVHGVHQVRUVFDQFRQWULEXWHWR,65DQG$6:

$VRSSRVHGWRORRNLQJIRUFOXHVWKDWDVXEPDULQHPD\EHSUHVHQWIXWXUHWHFKQRORJLHVOLNH

K\SHUVSHFWUDOLPDJLQJSURPLVHWRVLPSO\EHDEOHWR³ORRNWKURXJK´WKHRFHDQWRILQGDWDUJHWVRI

LQWHUHVW:KLOHWKHVHV\VWHPVDUHFXUUHQWO\LQHDUO\VWDJHVRIUHVHDUFKDQGDUHOLPLWHGLQWKHLU

DELOLW\WRFRYHUEURDGVZDWKVRIRFHDQXQWLOWKH\DUHYLDEOHWREHILWWHGRQDLUFUDIWRUVDWHOOLWHV

WKLVW\SHRIWHFKQRORJ\LVFHUWDLQO\SURPLVLQJ

2QHPRUHIXWXUHWHFKQRORJ\WKDWKROGVWKHSURPLVHRIUDSLGO\DFFHOHUDWLQJWKH

GHYHORSPHQWRI$,DQGWKDW³ZLOOILQGDXVHDQ\ZKHUHZKHUHWKHUH¶VDODUJHXQFHUWDLQ

FRPSOLFDWHGV\VWHP´VXFKDV$6:LQWKHRFHDQHQYLURQPHQWLVTXDQWXPFRPSXWLQJ:KLOH

KDYLQJDTXDQWXPFRPSXWHURQERDUGDQDLUFUDIWRUVKLSLVXQOLNHO\LWLVQRWXQUHDVRQDEOHWKDW

WKH\FRXOGHYHQWXDOO\EHXVHGWRFDUU\RXWYHU\SUHFLVHHQYLURQPHQWDOPRGHOOLQJJHQHUDWHWDFWLFV

WKDWKXPDQRSHUDWRUVFRXOGQHYHULPDJLQHRUFUHDWHHIILFLHQW0/$,DOJRULWKPVWREHXVHG

ORFDOO\RQRWKHUSODWIRUPV

:KLOHDFDVHFRXOGEHPDGHIRUDQ\RIWKHDERYHEHFRPLQJJDPHFKDQJHUVLQ$6:DQG

UHSODFLQJDFRXVWLFVDVDSULPDU\$6:PHWKRGLQWKHIXWXUHWKH\HDFKZRXOGDGGWRWKHH[LVWLQJ

PDVVLYHDPRXQWVRIGDWDFRPLQJLQWR$6:SODWIRUPVZRXOGHQWDLODGGLWLRQDOWUDLQLQJ

UHTXLUHPHQWVIRURSHUDWRUVDQGZRXOGGULYHFKDQJHVWRIXWXUH$6:WDFWLFVWKUHHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV

WKDWZRXOGPDNHWKHPDVVXLWDEOHIRU0/V\VWHPVDVIRUEHLQJDGGHGWRWKHFXUUHQWWDVNORDG

FDUULHGRXWE\KXPDQRSHUDWRUV



&DQDGD6WURQJ6HFXUH(QJDJHG&DQDGD¶V'HIHQVH3ROLF\:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL
6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH

:LOOLDP3HUNLQV$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH'DYLG6WHLQ-RQ6FKRRQPDNHUDQG(ULF
&RROEDXJK³+\SHUVSHFWUDO,PDJLQJIRU,QWHOOLJHQFH6XUYHLOODQFHDQG5HFRQQDLVVDQFH'DWD$FTXLVLWLRQDQG
([SORLWDWLRQ66&6DQ'LHJR$XJXVW

$PLW.DWZDOD³4XDQWXP&RPSXWHUV:LOO&KDQJHWKH:RUOG ,I7KH\:RUN ´:LUHGFRP0DUFK
KWWSVZZZZLUHGFRXNDUWLFOHTXDQWXPFRPSXWLQJH[SODLQHG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 10: ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

$VRXWOLQHGWKURXJKRXWWKLVSDSHUVLJQLILFDQWUHVHDUFKRQ$,DQGVSHFLILFDOO\LWV

DSSOLFDWLRQWR$6:LVXQGHUZD\&DQDGDLVDOHDGHULQ$,UHVHDUFKDQGKDVODLGGRZQ

JRYHUQPHQWDQGPLOLWDU\VSHFLILFSROLFLHVRXWOLQLQJWKDWLQWKHIXWXUH$,ZLOOEHDIDFWRULQ

PLOLWDU\DIIDLUV$6:KDVKLVWRULFDOO\EHHQFDUULHGRXWYLDPXOWLSOHVHQVRUVEXWZLWKKLJKO\

WUDLQHGDFRXVWLFVHQVRUVRSHUDWHGE\KXPDQVDVDNH\FRPSRQHQWZKLFKKDVEHHQFRQVLGHUHGDV

SRWHQWLDOO\³LQDFFXUDWHGXHWRWKHQHHGIRUFRQWLQXRXVPRQLWRULQJRIWKHRSHUDWLQJ621$5

FRQVROH´)XWXUHSODWIRUPVZLOOLQHYLWDEO\HQWDLOPXFKPRUHLQGHSWKVHQVRUWDVNVWKDQ

FXUUHQWO\FDUULHGRXWRQFXUUHQW&DQDGLDQ$6:SODWIRUPV:KLOHFXUUHQWSKDVHVRIDFTXLVLWLRQ

IRUDLUFUDIWVKLSDQGVXEPDULQHXSJUDGHVDQGUHSODFHPHQWVGRQRWGHILQHVSHFLILFDOO\KRZWKHVH

DGGLWLRQDOWDVNVZLOOEHSURFHVVHGRUFDUULHGRXWWKH\ZRXOGFHUWDLQO\EHPRUHHDVLO\FDUULHGRXW

E\WKHDGGLWLRQRIDGYDQFHGDXWRPDWLRQDQG0/WHFKQLTXHVWKDQE\IXUWKHURYHUORDGLQJDOUHDG\

EXV\KXPDQVHQVRURSHUDWRUVRUE\DGGLQJSHUVRQQHOWRFXUUHQWFUHZVWUXFWXUHV7KHFRQWLQXLQJ

H[SDQVLRQRIFRPSXWHUSURFHVVLQJSRZHUDWHYHUGHFUHDVLQJFRVWVKDVEHHQDGULYLQJIDFWRULQ

0/DQG$,GHYHORSPHQWDQGZLOOFRQWLQXHWKURXJKWKHGHYHORSPHQWDQGDGRSWLRQRIWKLV

WHFKQRORJ\IRUWKH&$)ZKHWKHUDSSOLHGWRDFRXVWLFDQDO\VLVIRU$6:RUSURFHVVLQJRIRWKHU

VHQVRUGDWD

2QHPRGHORIPDQ\RQWKHVWDJHVUHTXLUHGWRLPSOHPHQW$,0/WKH³$,KLHUDUFK\RI

QHHGV´ZLOOEHDSSOLHGWKURXJKWKLVFKDSWHUWRDQDO\]HDFWLRQVWKDWZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGWRDGRSW

0/WRUHSODFHWKHWDVNVRIDFRXVWLFVHQVRURSHUDWRUV



,NVX6HR6HRQJZHRQ.LP<RXQJZRR5\X-XQJ\RQJ3DUNDQG'RQJ6HRJ+DQ³8QGHUZDWHU0RYLQJ
7DUJHW&ODVVLILFDWLRQ8VLQJ0XOWLOD\HU3URFHVVLQJ´

0RQLFD5RJDWL³7KH$,+LHUDUFK\RI1HHGV´+DFNHUQRRQFRP-XQHKWWSVKDFNHUQRRQFRPWKH
DLKLHUDUFK\RIQHHGVIIFF

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


Collect

7KLVSKDVHWKHFROOHFWLRQRIDFWLYHDQGSDVVLYHGDWDLVDOUHDG\KDSSHQLQJFRQWLQXDOO\,Q

GLVFXVVLQJILIWKJHQHUDWLRQDLUZDUIDUH/D\WRQVD\V³LQWKHLQLWLDOELJGDWDSKDVHDKLJKYROXPH

YHORFLW\DQGYDULHW\RIGDWDIURPPXOWLSOHGLYHUVHVRXUFHVDFURVVWLPHDQGVSDFHDUH

FROOHFWHG´:LWKHYHU\PLVVLRQ$6:SODWIRUPVKDYHVHQVRUVLQWKHZDWHUDQGUHFRUGDPELHQW

QRLVHVELRORJLFDOQRLVHVDQGPHUFKDQWVKLSSLQJWUDIILFDVZHOODVZDUVKLSVDQGVXEPDULQHV

GXULQJH[HUFLVHVDQGRSHUDWLRQV$FRXVWLFDQDO\VLVLVORJJHGDQGDQQRWDWHGDQGUHFRUGLQJVDUH

IRUZDUGHGLQWRDQHVWDEOLVKHGV\VWHPRILQFUHDVLQJO\GHWDLOHGDQDO\VLV

Move/Store

7KLVOHYHOLVEDVHGRQKRZGDWDIORZVWKURXJKWKHV\VWHP255)ROORZLQJFROOHFWLRQGDWDLV

WUDQVIHUUHGRIIWKHSODWIRUPWRDSRVWPLVVLRQIDFLOLW\IRUIXUWKHUDQDO\VLV7KLVWUDQVIHUFXUUHQWO\

KDSSHQVSULPDULO\WKURXJKSK\VLFDOWUDQVIHURIVWRUDJHGHYLFHVOLNHKDUGGULYHVZLWKVRPH

QHWZRUNHGWUDQVPLVVLRQRIILOHV5HDOWLPHWUDQVPLVVLRQIURPDSODWIRUPLQWRDQLQIRUPDWLRQ

µFORXG¶ZRXOGDOVRTXDOLI\LQWKLVVWDJH$VWKHGDWDLVWUDQVIHUUHGLQWRVWRUDJHLWQHHGVWREH

DQQRWDWHGDQGVWUXFWXUHGLQDZD\WKDWFDQEHXVHGE\WKHWRROVZKLFKZLOOXOWLPDWHO\DQDO\]HWKH

GDWD,QRUGHUIRU0/WRKHOSXVPDNHVHQVHRIWKHFRPSOH[LWLHVLQWKHGDWDDQGILQGUHODWLRQVKLSV

WKDWFDQQRWEHSURFHVVHGPDQXDOO\WKHGDWDZLOOQHHGWREHIXUWKHUSUHSDUHG

Explore/Transform

 7KLVVWDJHLQYROYHVGDWDVFLHQWLVWVFDUU\LQJRXWFOHDQLQJDQRPDO\GHWHFWLRQDQG

SUHSDUDWLRQIRUIXUWKHUXVH/LEUDULHVRIDFRXVWLFFRQWDFWVLQFOXGHDQQRWDWLRQVRIUHVHDUFKDQG

WUHQGDQDO\VLVRQVXEPDULQHVLJQDWXUHVDQGV\VWHPVDVDQDO\]HGE\KXPDQV7KHVHGDWDEDVHV

ZRXOGQHHGWREHYHULILHGIRUDFFXUDF\EHIRUHLQFRUSRUDWLQJWKHPLQWRWUDLQLQJGDWDIRU0/$OO



3HWHU/D\WRQ³)LIWK*HQHUDWLRQ$LU:DUIDUH´

0RQLFD5RJDWL³7KH$,+LHUDUFK\RI1HHGV´+DFNHUQRRQFRP

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


RIWKHUHVHDUFKUHYLHZHGLQWKHSUHSDUDWLRQRIWKLVSDSHUXVHG³FOHDQHG´RURSWLPL]HGGDWDWRWUDLQ

0/V\VWHPVWRFDUU\RXWDQDO\VLVDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIELRORJLFDOVRXQGVRUPDQPDGHSODWIRUPV

1RQHGHVFULEHGWHFKQLTXHVWKDWZHUHUHDG\IRUUHDOWLPHUDZGDWDZKLFKZRXOGEHQHFHVVDU\IRU

XVHRQDQ$6:SODWIRUP

 7KHXVHRIDQDFRXVWLFGDWDEDVHSRSXODWHGE\WUDLQHGSHUVRQQHOEULQJVXSWKHFRQFHSWRI

DQµH[SHUWV\VWHP¶ZKLFKLVDV\VWHPSURJUDPPHGZLWKPDQXDOO\VSHFLILHGUXOHVDQGDOJRULWKPV

7\SLFDOO\³DQH[SHUWV\VWHPLVFRPSRVHGRIDNQRZOHGJH«UHSUHVHQWHGDVDVHWRILIWKHQUXOHV

DQGWKHLQIHUHQFHHQJLQHXVHVORJLFDOLQIHUHQFHUXOHVIRUGHGXFWLRQ7KHUXOHVDUHSURJUDPPHG

DIWHUFRQVXOWDWLRQZLWKGRPDLQH[SHUWVDQGWKH\DUHIL[HG´$OSD\GLQJLYHVWZRUHDVRQVWKDW

H[SHUWV\VWHPVZHUHGLIILFXOWWRLPSOHPHQW7KHILUVWWKDWWKH³NQRZOHGJHEDVHQHHGHGWREH

FUHDWHGPDQXDOO\WKURXJKDYHU\ODERULRXVSURFHVV´ZKLFKLVVRPHZKDWRYHUFRPHE\WKHIDFWWKDW

WKHDFRXVWLFGDWDEDVHVDOUHDG\H[LVWDQGMXVWQHHGWREHFOHDQHG+LVVHFRQGUHDVRQ³ZDVWKH

XQVXLWDELOLW\RIORJLFWRUHSUHVHQWWKHUHDOZRUOG´&RQWUDU\WRPDQ\SUREOHPV0/WULHVWRGHDO

ZLWKWKHUHDUHFRQFUHWHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQIRUH[DPSOHWKHW\SHRIV\VWHPRQDVXEPDULQH

DQGWKHVRXQGLWJHQHUDWHV:KLOHH[SHUWV\VWHPVKDYHUHVXOWHGLQOLPLWHGVXFFHVVDVFRPSDUHGWR

V\VWHPVWKDWOHDUQGLUHFWO\IURPGDWDWKHUHLVDQH[LVWLQJERG\RINQRZOHGJHLQDFRXVWLFVZKLFK

FDSWXUHVWKHH[SHULHQFHRIH[SHUWVRQKRZVXEPDULQHVDQGRWKHUSODWIRUPVJHQHUDWHVRXQGVDQG

WKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKRVHVRXQGVSHUKDSVMXVWLI\LQJEHJLQQLQJZLWKDQH[SHUWV\VWHP

 $QRWKHUDVSHFWRIGDWDDQDO\VLVLVJHQHUDWLQJK\SRWKHVHVDQGYHULI\LQJZKHWKHUWKHGDWD

VXSSRUWVWKHK\SRWKHVLV0DQXDODQDO\VLVRIWKHGDWDLQWKLVZD\KRZHYHULVOLPLWHGDV

$OSD\GLQSRLQWVRXWLQWKDW³ZHFDQWHVWRQO\WKHK\SRWKHVHVZHFDQLPDJLQH´5DWKHUWKDQ



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

,ELG

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


KDYLQJIL[HGUXOHVKRZHYHUDK\EULGV\VWHPWKDWVWDUWVZLWKDQLQLWLDOµKRZWRDQDO\]HSDVVLYH

DFRXVWLFUHFRUGLQJV¶DQGXOWLPDWHO\DOORZVWKHV\VWHPWRLGHQWLI\DQGDQDO\]HWKHGHHSHUKLGGHQ

UHODWLRQVKLSVLQWKHGDWDLVUHFRPPHQGHG7KHVHKLGGHQUHODWLRQVKLSVFRXOGLQFOXGH

XQGLVFRYHUHGUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQSLHFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJRFHDQRJUDSK\DQGVRXQG

SURSDJDWLRQRUFRXOGSRWHQWLDOO\ILOOJDSVLQNQRZOHGJHZKHUHWKH&$)GRHVQRWKDYH

LQIRUPDWLRQRQVSHFLILFVXEPDULQHVRUKDYHQRWFROOHFWHGRQWKHPLQFHUWDLQRSHUDWLQJSURILOHV

Aggregate/Label

 2QFHWKHH[LVWLQJGDWDLVFROOHFWHGDQGFOHDQHGWKHQH[WVWHSLVWRODEHOWKHLQIRUPDWLRQ

IRUXVHE\WKH0/V\VWHP&XUUHQWO\DFRXVWLFGDWDLVSUHSDUHGIRUXVHLQWUDLQLQJDQGVWRUDJHE\

KLJKO\WUDLQHGRSHUDWRUVDQGDQDO\VWV7KHODEHOOLQJVWDJHZRXOGWDNHWKLVGDWDDQGODEHOLWIRU

XVHE\WKH0/V\VWHPZKLFKZRXOGQHHGWREHEDVHGRQKDYLQJDQLGHDRIKRZWKHDOJRULWKPV

ZLOOZRUN$ORQJZLWKWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQLQIRUPDWLRQZKLFKZDVWKHSULPDU\W\SHRILQIRUPDWLRQ

GLVFXVVHGLQPXFKRIWKHUHVHDUFKUHYLHZHGIRUWKLVSDSHUDFRXVWLFGDWDH[DPSOHVDOVRQHHGWREH

DQQRWDWHGZLWKDQDVVHVVPHQWRIZKDWLVKDSSHQLQJWDFWLFDOO\LQRUGHUWRGLIIHUHQWLDWHWKHLPSDFW

RIVSHFLILFVSHHGUHJLPHVGHSWKVDQGPDQHXYHUVRQWKHDFRXVWLFVLJQDWXUH

 $JDLQPXFKRIWKLVNQRZOHGJHLVDOUHDG\LQH[LVWHQFHDQGZRXOGVLPSO\QHHGWREH

ODEHOOHG$OSD\GLQSRLQWVRXWWKDWZLWKVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJ³VWUXFWXUHLVLPSRVHGE\WKH

VXSHUYLVRUZKRGHILQHVWKHGLIIHUHQWFODVVHVDQGODEHOVWKHLQVWDQFHVLQWKHWUDLQLQJGDWDE\WKHVH

FODVVHV´$FDXWLRQZLWKWKLVKDQGODEHOLQJLVWRHQVXUHLWLVIUHHIURPELDVDQGWRDFNQRZOHGJH

WKDWWKHUHLVDFKDQFHRIHUURUVLQWKHODEHOLQJDOVRNQRZQDV³WHDFKHUQRLVH´

 6LQFHWKHDFRXVWLFOLEUDU\ZRXOGFRQWDLQUDZDXGLRILOHVDVZHOODVILOHVFRQVLVWLQJRI

DQQRWDWLRQVRIRSHUDWRUDQDO\VLVHLWKHUUDZDXGLRRUSURFHVVHGILOHVFRXOGEHLQSXWLQWRWKH



,ELG

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


V\VWHP5HVHDUFKKDVEHHQFDUULHGRXWXVLQJERWKDSSURDFKHVZLWKVRPHSUHIHUULQJWRXVH

SUHSURFHVVHGDXGLRVXFKDV/2)$5JUDPVLQRUGHUWRHQVXUHWKDWNH\IHDWXUHVDUHUHWDLQHGDQG

WKDW³XVHOHVVLQIRUPDWLRQ´OLNHQRLVHGRHVQRWLQWHUIHUHZLWKIHDWXUHH[WUDFWLRQLQGHHS

OHDUQLQJ

6LQFHWKHXOWLPDWHJRDOZLOOEHLQFRUSRUDWLQJ0/LQWRUHDOWLPHSODWIRUPVDQRWKHUEHQHILW

RIXVLQJSURFHVVHGILOHVLVWKDWWKHV\VWHPFRXOGEHµWDXJKW¶KRZWRFRQFXUUHQWO\SURFHVV

LQIRUPDWLRQZLWKPXOWLSOHVHWWLQJVWRGHULYHWKHEHVWLQIRUPDWLRQIRUH[DPSOHWKHVWURQJHVW

VLJQDO 7KH1$720$625VXSSRUWVWKLVLGHDLQGHVFULELQJDQDELOLW\IRUVHQVRUVWR³FROOHFW

DOOGDWDWKDWSUHVHQWVDWWKHDSHUWXUHDQG«SURFHVVLWLQPXOWLSOHPRGHVLQUHDOWLPH´

 /LNHZLVHLQVWHDGRIFKRRVLQJDVLQJOHDOJRULWKPPXOWLSOHOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPVFDQEH

FRPELQHGZKLFK³PD\OHDGWREHWWHUSHUIRUPDQFH´DFFRUGLQJWR$OSD\GLQ&RPELQLQJ

PRGHOVLVSUREDEO\PRUHUHIOHFWLYHRIKRZKXPDQVFDUU\RXWDFRXVWLFDQDO\VLVZLWKGLIIHUHQW

DSSURDFKHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHQDWXUHRIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQSUHVHQWHGPDNLQJLWDQµDUW¶DVRSSRVHGWR

DQHQWLUHO\V\VWHPDWLFDSSURDFK0RVWRIWKHVXUYH\HGUHVHDUFKVXSSRUWVWKDWFRPELQHGPHWKRGV

VKRZEHWWHUUHVXOWVWKDQVWDQGDORQHDSSOLFDWLRQVZLWKDWRSHUFHQWEHWWHUSHUIRUPDQFHQRWHG

E\<DQJHWDODQGVLPLODUSRVLWLYHUHVXOWVE\<XHHWDOLQWKHLUUHVHDUFK

,QKLVDQDO\VLV3HUNLQVVWDWHVWKDW³1$72VKRXOGH[SORUHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHFDSDELOLW\

WRUHFRUGDFWLYH621$5IRUSRVWPLVVLRQDQDO\VLVDQGWKHILGHOLW\IRUDFWLYH621$5WRFODVVLI\



*XDQJKDR-LQ)DQ/LX+DR:X 4XLQ]HQJ6RQJ  ³'HHS/HDUQLQJEDVHG)UDPHZRUNIRUH[SDQVLRQ
UHFRJQLWLRQDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVLJQDO´-RXUQDORI([SHULPHQWDO 7KHRUHWLFDO$UWLILFLDO
,QWHOOLJHQFH'2,;

1$720$625$

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

+RQJKXL<DQJ*XDQJKXL;X6KX]KHQ<L<LTXLQJ/LD³$1HZ&RRSHUDWLYH'HHS/HDUQLQJ0HWKRGIRU
8QGHUZDWHU$FRXVWLF7DUJHW5HFRJQLWLRQ´2FHDQV&RQIHUHQFH-XQH&RQIHUHQFH3DSHU+DR<XH/LOXQ
=KDQJ'H]KL:DQJ<RQJ[LDQ:DQJDQG=HQJTXDQ/X³7KH&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI8QGHUZDWHU$FRXVWLF7DUJHWV%DVHG
RQ'HHS/HDUQLQJ0HWKRGV´$GYDQFHVLQ,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPV5HVHDUFKYROXPH$WODQWLV3UHVV-DQXDU\

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


VXEPDULQHVE\W\SHLQUHDOWLPHZKLOHRQVWDWLRQ´6HRHWDOLQWKHLUZRUNRQWDUJHW

FODVVLILFDWLRQQRWHGWKDW³HYHQLIWKHUHLVQRWDUJHWLQWKHVHDGDWDDFTXLVLWLRQZLWKDFWLYH

621$5LQWKHXQGHUZDWHUHQYLURQPHQWLVQHHGHGWRDFFXPXODWHFOXWWHUGLVWULEXWLRQV´

7KLVLVEXWRQHRIH[DPSOHRIWKHEHQHILWRIUHWDLQLQJDQGPHWDWDJJLQJRUODEHOLQJDOOGDWD

ZKLFK/D\WRQSRLQWVRXW³HQVXUHVWKDWZKDWVHHPVOLNHYDOXHOHVVGDWDQRZFDQEHODWHUORFDWHG

UHWULHYHGDQGPDQLSXODWHGWRFUHDWHKLJKYDOXHLQIRUPDWLRQZKHQQHZUHTXLUHPHQWVHPHUJHRU

LPSURYHGDQDO\VLVPHWKRGVDUHGHYHORSHG´%DVHOLQHVRIRFHDQRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQZKHWKHU

FOXWWHUIRUDFWLYHV\VWHPVRUDPELHQWQRLVHGLVWULEXWLRQVIRUSDVVLYHSURFHVVLQJPD\EH

JHQHUDWHGIURPGDWDFXUUHQWO\KHOGEXWQRWVHHQDVKROGLQJYDOXH7KLVZRXOGDSSO\QRWRQO\WR

GHYHORSLQJ0/IRUDFWLYHDFRXVWLFSURFHVVLQJEXWLQUHWDLQLQJGDWDIRUIXUWKHU0/

GHYHORSPHQWVVXFKDVDGYDQFHGPRGHOOLQJRIRFHDQRJUDSKLFSURILOHVRUIXVLRQRIGDWDZLWKRWKHU

VHQVRUV$QQRWDWLQJGDWDRIXQNQRZQIXWXUHXWLOLW\ZRXOGEHWLPHFRQVXPLQJDQGSRWHQWLDOO\

LQGXFHHUURUVLIGRQHE\KXPDQVEXWFRXOGHDVLO\EHDFKLHYHGZLWKH[FHVVFRPSXWHUSURFHVVLQJ

SRZHUZKHQLWLVQRWLQXVHIRURWKHUDSSOLFDWLRQV

Learn/Optimize

7KHVXFFHVVIXOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI0/UHOLHVRQ³DORWRIH[DPSOHGDWDDQGVXIILFLHQW

FRPSXWLQJSRZHUWRUXQWKHOHDUQLQJPHWKRGVRQWKDWPXFKGDWD´DQGLQVRPHFDVHV³JHQHUDWLQJ

WKHDOJRULWKPVWKHPVHOYHVIURPWKHGDWD´7KLVSRUWLRQRIWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQSURFHVVLVWKH

DUHDWRZKLFKPXFKRIWKHUHVHDUFKFLWHGLQWKLVSDSHUZDVFDUULHGRXW:KHWKHUGHYHORSHG

LQWHUQDOO\E\FRQWUDFWRUVRULQFROODERUDWLRQWKH&$)ZRXOGQHHGWRVHWXSIRUSDVVLYHDFRXVWLFV



:LOOLDP3HUNLQV³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´

,NVX6HR6HRQJZHRQ.LP<RXQJZRR5\X-XQJ\RQJ3DUNDQG'RQJ6HRJ+DQ³8QGHUZDWHU0RYLQJ
7DUJHW&ODVVLILFDWLRQ8VLQJ0XOWLOD\HU3URFHVVLQJ´

3HWHU/D\WRQ³)LIWK*HQHUDWLRQ$LU:DUIDUH´

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,[LL

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


EDVHGRQWKHFODVVLILHGPLOLWDU\KROGLQJV:KHUHDVWKHUHVHDUFKSDSHUVEDVHGWKHLUH[SHULPHQWV

RQOLPLWHGGDWDEDVHVRIRSHQVRXUFHUHFRUGLQJVVXFKDV:RUOG:DUUHFRUGLQJVRIGHIXQFW

SODWIRUPVLPSOHPHQWDWLRQIRUXVHRQUHDOZRUOGSODWIRUPVZRXOGKDYHDWVRPHSRLQWWRXVH

FXUUHQWSODWIRUPV7KHSURFHVVFRXOGKRZHYHUVWDUWZLWKUHFRUGLQJVRIPHUFKDQWVKLSSLQJ

ZKLFKW\SLFDOO\FRQVLVWVRIIHZPDQHXYHUVVWDEOHUXQQLQJVWDWHVDQGWDFWLFDOGDWDVXFKDV

SRVLWLRQFRXUVHDQGVSHHGZKLFKFDQEHFRUUHODWHGE\GDWDFROOHFWHGIURP$,6DQGRWKHUVHQVRUV

VXFKDV5$'$57KLVOLEUDU\ZRXOGDOVRHQDEOHDVXSHUYLVHGH[SHUWV\VWHPE\DOORZLQJKXPDQ

DQDO\VWV¶DVVHVVPHQWVRIFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIIUHTXHQF\OLQHVRXUFHVWREHLQFRUSRUDWHGLQRUGHUIRU

WKHFRPSXWHUWREHDEOHWRGLIIHUHQWLDWHEHWZHHQVRXUFHVIRUH[DPSOHWKHVLJQDWXUHRIDGLHVHO

HQJLQHVRXUFHYHUVXVWKHDSSHDUDQFHRISURSHOOHUQRLVHFDQEHTXLWHGLIIHUHQWDQGKDYHGLIIHUHQW

FKDUDFWHULVWLFV0XFKOLNHZLWKDKXPDQRSHUDWRUNQRZQEDVLFLQIRUPDWLRQOLNHEODGHILWPHQWV

DQGHQJLQHFRQILJXUDWLRQFDQEHXVHGDVDVWDUWLQJSRLQWIRUOHDUQLQJWRFODVVLI\8VLQJ

XQFODVVLILHGVRXUFHVDQGUHFRUGLQJVRIVXUIDFHVKLSVLWVKRXOGEHSRVVLEOHWRWHDFKWKH0/WR

GLIIHUHQWLDWHEHWZHHQYHVVHOVXVLQJZLGHO\DYDLODEOHGDWDEDVHVOLNHWKH/OR\G¶V6KLSSLQJ

5HJLVWU\ZKLFKFRQWDLQVLQIRUPDWLRQRQVKLSGLPHQVLRQVSURSXOVLRQWUDLQDQGHQJLQHW\SHV

 7KH0/V\VWHPFRXOGWKXVEHWDXJKWWRLGHQWLI\DQGLQWHUSUHWWKHNQRZQDQGµKLGGHQ¶

UHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQIUHTXHQFLHV2XURZQZDUVKLSVIRUH[DPSOHFDQSURYLGHGHWDLOVWKURXJK

ORJVDVWRWKHLUUXQQLQJFRQILJXUDWLRQDQGZKLFKVSHFLILFHTXLSPHQWLVWXUQHGRQDWDQ\JLYHQ

WLPHZKLFKFDQEHFURVVUHIHUHQFHGZLWKDFRXVWLFUHFRUGLQJV,QVRPHFDVHVWKH0/FRXOGXVH

WKLVLQIRUPDWLRQWROHDUQWRPDSRUILQJHUSULQWVRXQGVWRVSHFLILFV\VWHPVDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\WR

VSHFLILFYHVVHOV7KHV\VWHPVKRXOGEHVHWXSWRDOORZWKHFRQWDFWVEHLQJDQDO\]HGWREHFRPH



/OR\G¶V5HJLVWHU³0DULQH 6KLSSLQJ´$FFHVVHG0D\KWWSVZZZOURUJHQPDULQHVKLSSLQJ


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


PRUHFRPSOH[HYHQWXDOO\DOORZLQJWKH0/WRUHFRJQL]HKLGGHQUHODWLRQVKLSVZKLFKFRXOGEH

LPSHUFHSWLEOHWRRUPLVVHGE\HYHQWKHPRVWKLJKO\WUDLQHGKXPDQDQDO\VW

 ,QFUHPHQWDOO\WKHVXSHUYLVRUFRXOGEHJLQDGGLQJYHU\VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGH[DPSOHVRI

ZDUVKLSVWUDQVLWLQJDQGPLQRUGHYLDWLRQVWRµWHDFK¶WKHV\VWHPWRLGHQWLI\WDFWLFDOPDQHXYHUVDQG

VSHHGFKDQJHV&RQFXUUHQWO\WKHV\VWHPVKRXOGµOHDUQ¶KRZWRLGHQWLI\WKHµFORVHVWSRLQWRI

DSSURDFK¶RQDVHQVRUDQGGHULYHWDFWLFDOGDWDVXFKDVVSHHGDQGUDQJHWKURXJKZHOONQRZQ

DFRXVWLFIRUPXODV

 8OWLPDWHO\WKHJRDOZRXOGEHWRWUDQVIHUZKDWZDVOHDUQHGDERXWDFRXVWLFVRXUFHVRQD

EDVLFSODWIRUPWRZDUVKLSVDQGHYHQWXDOO\VXEPDULQHVZKLFKPD\KDYHVRPHV\VWHPVZKLFKDUH

WKHVDPHVWUXFWXUDOO\DQGPHFKDQLFDOO\DVRQPDULQHVKLSSLQJYHVVHOV1H[WLWFRXOGEHWDXJKWWR

LGHQWLI\DQRPDOLHV KLJKO\G\QDPLFWDUJHWVOLNHILVKLQJYHVVHOVRUVPDOOSOHDVXUHFUDIW DQGFDUU\

RXWZKDWWDFWLFDODQDO\VLVLWFDQZKLFKE\WKDWSRLQWVKRXOGLQFOXGHGHYLDWLRQVLQSURSXOVLRQ

HQJLQHDQGFHUWDLQRWKHUVRXUFHVE\WKHLUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGIUHTXHQF\VSHFWUXP9HU\

VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGVXEPDULQHFRQWDFWV QRWPDQHXYHULQJRUFKDQJLQJRSHUDWLQJPRGHV FRXOGEH

LQWURGXFHGQH[WDORQJZLWKFDOFXODWLRQRIWDFWLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQOLNHGHSWK)LQDOO\PRUH

G\QDPLFVXEPDULQHWDUJHWVFRXOGEHDGGHGWRWKHGDWDEDVH V LGHQWLILHGE\WKHV\VWHPDVRXWOLHUV

IURPEDFNJURXQGQRLVH7KURXJKRXWWKLVSURFHVVWKHV\VWHPVKRXOGEHEXLOGLQJDQGUHILQLQJLWV

DQDO\VLVFDSDELOLW\DVZHOODVLWVRFHDQSURSDJDWLRQPRGHOVLQRUGHUWREHDEOHWRWUDQVLWLRQWR

UHDOWLPHGDWDDQDO\VLV

$VSRLQWHGRXWE\$OSD\GLQ³LQPDQ\DSSOLFDWLRQVWKHXQGHUO\LQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH

SUREOHPPD\FKDQJHLQWLPHLQVXFKDFDVHSUHYLRXVO\FROOHFWHGGDWDEHFRPHVREVROHWHDQGWKH

QHHGDULVHVWRFRQWLQXRXVO\DQGHIILFLHQWO\XSGDWHWKHWUDLQHGPRGHOZLWKQHZGDWD´7KLV



(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


ZRXOGEHWKHFDVHZLWKDUHFRUGLQJRIDVKLSRUDVXEPDULQHRSHUDWLQJLQDWDFWLFDOSURILOHWKDW

ZDVSUHYLRXVO\QRWKHOGLQWKHGDWDEDVHRUDUHFRUGLQJRIDSODWIRUPDIWHUHPHUJLQJIURPDUHILW

ZRUNSHULRG7KHQHZLQIRUPDWLRQZRXOGKDYHWREHLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRWKHRYHUDOONQRZOHGJH

EDVHRIWKHV\VWHPZLWKRXWUHVWDUWLQJHYHU\WLPHQHZLQIRUPDWLRQZDVDGGHG

$OSD\GLQPHQWLRQVWKDWDV\VWHPPXVWNQRZ³ZKDWLWNQRZVDQGZKDWLWGRHVQRWNQRZ´

DQGVKRXOGEHDEOHWRLQGLFDWHWKHOHYHORIFHUWDLQW\LQLWVSUHGLFWLRQ7KLVZRXOGEHFULWLFDOLQ

SDVVLQJLQIRUPDWLRQWRDGHFLVLRQPDNHULQDWDFWLFDOHQYLURQPHQWEXWZRXOGEHXVHIXOLQWUDLQLQJ

D0/V\VWHPVRWKHOHYHORIDFFXUDF\FDQEHDVVHVVHG:LWKPRUHGDWDFDQFRPHPRUH

XQFHUWDLQW\EXW³LIWKHWUDLQHGPRGHONQRZVZKHUHLWKDVKLJKXQFHUWDLQW\LWFDQDFWLYHO\DVNWKH

VXSHUYLVRUWRODEHOH[DPSOHVLQWKHUH´2QFHWKHDFRXVWLF0/V\VWHPKDVEHHQWUDLQHGDQG

YDOLGDWHGXVLQJWKHXQFODVVLILHGVRXUFHVLWFRXOGEHLPSOHPHQWHGDWDVKRUHEDVHGIDFLOLW\WR

ILOWHULQFRPLQJUHFRUGLQJVDQGLGHQWLI\FRQWDFWVSUHVHQW,QILOWHULQJLQFRPLQJDFRXVWLF

UHFRUGLQJVWKHV\VWHPFRXOGFDUU\RXWDFWLYHOHDUQLQJZKHUHLWZRXOGKLJKOLJKWDUHDVRILQWHUHVW

IRUKXPDQDQDO\VWVWRUHYLHZZKLOHDWWKHVDPHWLPHLGHQWLI\LQJLWVRZQDUHDVRIXQFHUWDLQW\

ZKLFKRQFHUHVROYHGZRXOGFRQWULEXWHWRLWVSURILFLHQF\

0DQ\RIWKHVWXGLHVUHYLHZHGLQ&KDSWHUWRRNYHU\VPDOOVDPSOHGDWDEDVHVDQG³VOLFHG

DQGGLFHG´WKHPWRDWWDLQWKRXVDQGVRIVDPSOHVDJDLQVWZKLFKWRWUDLQDQGDVVHVVWKHLU

DSSURDFKHV1RQHGLVFXVVHGWDNLQJLQGLYLGXDODFRXVWLFIHDWXUHVDQG³WHDFKLQJ´WKHPWRWKH

FRPSXWHUDQGFURVVUHIHUHQFLQJWKHPZLWKNQRZQVRXUFHV,QVWHDGPRVWIROORZHGPDFKLQH

OHDUQLQJPHWKRGVZLWKYHU\VPDOOVDPSOHVL]HVDQGUHVXOWLQJDFFXUDFLHVWKDWZRXOGEHWRRORZWR

DSSO\WRDQ$6:HQYLURQPHQWZLWKUHVXOWVVXFKDVFKDQFHRI³VXEPDULQH´YHUVXV

FODVVLI\LQJDNQRZQKRVWLOHSODWIRUP:LWKODUJHUGDWDVDPSOHVIURPPRGHUQSODWIRUPVWKH



,ELG

(WKHP$OSD\GLQ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


UHVHDUFKHUVPD\KDYHKDGKLJKHUDFFXUDFLHVEXWLIWKHLQWHQWLVWRUHSOLFDWHDOORIWKHWDVNVRI

$62VV\VWHPVPXVWEHDEOHWRLGHQWLI\DQGFODVVLI\DOODFRXVWLFVRXUFHVLQDOORSHUDWLQJPRGHV

DQGH[WUDFWUHOHYDQWWDFWLFDOGDWDZKLFKLVZK\WKLVSDSHULVDUJXLQJIRUDVXSHUYLVHGPHWKRG

7KDWVDLGLIUHVHDUFKHUVDUHDEOHWRDFKLHYHEHWWHUUHVXOWVXVLQJXQVXSHUYLVHGPHWKRGVDQGJDLQD

KLJKHUDFFXUDF\WKDQRWKHUPHWKRGVWKDWLQYROYHVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJDQXQVXSHUYLVHGSDWK

VKRXOGEHSXUVXHG7KHVWUHQJWKRIXQVXSHUYLVHGPHWKRGVZDVGLVFXVVHGHDUOLHULQWKLVSDSHUDQG

LQVRPHILHOGV$,UHVHDUFKHUVKDYHHYHQEHHQDEOHWRFUHDWH³$,WKDW¶VFDSDEOHRIJHQHUDWLQJLWV

RZQ$,V´DQH[DPSOHRIZKLFKLV*RRJOH¶VV\VWHPZKLFKZDVDEOHWRDXWRPDWHWKHGHVLJQRILWV

RZQPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJPRGHOVXVLQJXQVXSHUYLVHGUHLQIRUFHPHQWOHDUQLQJ

,Q7KRPDVHWDO¶VVWXG\RQLGHQWLI\LQJPDULQHPDPPDOVRXUFHVWKH\QRWHWKDWWKH

³DOJRULWKPVDUHKHDYLO\GHSHQGHQWRQWKHILOWHULQJQRUPDOL]DWLRQDQGVPRRWKLQJRSHUDWLRQVWKDW

DUHSHUIRUPHGRQHDFKVSHFWURJUDP´$V0/V\VWHPVEHWWHUOHDUQWRDQDO\]HLQIRUPDWLRQWKH\

FRXOGDOVREHWUDLQHGWRRSWLPL]HWKHLURZQSHUIRUPDQFHLQVLJQDOSURFHVVLQJ-LQHWDOLGHQWLILHG

WKDWVDPSOHVJHQHUDWHGE\WKHLURZQQHWZRUNZHUH³PRUHFOHDUO\GLVSOD\HGDQGKDYHPRUH

SURPLQHQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFOLQHVWKDQWKHRULJLQDOWUDLQLQJVDPSOHV´LPSO\LQJWKDWWKLVDSSURDFK

FRXOGEHXVHIXO

,IVXFKDV\VWHPFRXOGEHFUHDWHGWRLQFUHPHQWDOO\UHILQHDQGRSWLPL]HLWVRZQ

SHUIRUPDQFHZKLOHVWUHDPOLQLQJLWVRZQXVHRISURFHVVLQJSRZHUDQGKDUGZDUHLWZRXOGSDYH

WKHZD\IRULPSOHPHQWDWLRQRQIXWXUHSODWIRUPVVXFKDVDLUFUDIWZKHUHZHLJKWSRZHUDQGVSDFH

UHTXLUHPHQWVDUHDOOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV

Machine Learning Rollout




$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

0DUN7KRPDVHWDO³0DULQH0DPPDO6SHFLHV&ODVVLILFDWLRQXVLQJ&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO1HWZRUNV´

*XDQJKDR-LQ)DQ/LX+DR:X 4XLQ]HQJ6RQJ  'HHS/HDUQLQJEDVHG)UDPHZRUNIRUH[SDQVLRQ
UHFRJQLWLRQDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVLJQDO-RXUQDORI([SHULPHQWDO 7KHRUHWLFDO$UWLILFLDO
,QWHOOLJHQFH'2,;

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG



$V7KRPDVHWDOPHQWLRQDFRXVWLFGDWDFROOHFWLRQLV³RIWHQFDUULHGRXWXVLQJPRRUHG

UHFRUGHUVHTXLSSHGZLWKK\GURSKRQHV´ZKLFKJHQHUDWHVVLJQLILFDQWGDWDRQFHFROOHFWHG

)LOWHULQJDQGDQDO\VLVRIWKLVW\SHRIGDWDZRXOGEHDORJLFDOILUVWWHVWRIDWUDLQHG0/V\VWHPIRU

ERWKDFFXUDF\DQGSURFHVVLQJFDSDELOLW\:KLOHPXFKRIWKLVGDWDLQFOXGLQJWKDWUHIHUUHGWRE\

7KRPDVHWDODQGWKDWLQDUHFHQW(QYLURQPHQWDO6WXGLHV5HVHDUFK)XQGSURMHFWLVJHDUHG

WRZDUGVHDOLIHDQGLWW\SLFDOO\KROGVDZLGHYDULHW\RIPDULQHVRXQGVRXUFHVDQGRFHDQRJUDSKLF

LQIRUPDWLRQ)LOWHULQJDQGDQDO\]LQJWKLVW\SHRIQRQRSHUDWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQZRXOGFRQILUP

WKHV\VWHP¶VFDSDELOLW\WRSURFHVVODUJHTXDQWLWLHVRIXQDQQRWDWHGGDWDDGGH[DPSOHVWRD

DFRXVWLFGDWDEDVHVDQGEXLOGRFHDQRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQUHSRVLWRULHV2QFHSURYHQWKHV\VWHP

FRXOGEHHPSOR\HGWRILOWHUDQGSURFHVVWKHDFRXVWLFUHFRUGLQJVJHQHUDWHGE\VKLSVVXEPDULQHV

DQGDLUFUDIW

 $VHFRQGSKDVHFRXOGFRQVLVWRIUHDOWLPHPRQLWRULQJRIGDWDIURPRFHDQVHQVRUVVXFKDV

WKH2FHDQ1HWZRUNV&DQDGD¶V9(186SURMHFWFURVVUHIHUHQFHGZLWK$,6GDWDDQGOLEUDULHVRI

RFHDQJRLQJVRXUFHV7KLVSKDVHZRXOGDOORZIRUUHDOWLPHRSHUDWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPDQGFRXOG

KLJKOLJKWGHILFLHQFLHVLQWDFWLFDOLQWHUSUHWDWLRQWKDWQHHGWREHDGGUHVVHG:KHQUHDG\WKH

V\VWHPFRXOGEHLPSOHPHQWHGLQSDUDOOHOZLWKKXPDQRSHUDWRUVDWUHDOWLPHRFHDQSURFHVVLQJ

IDFLOLWLHVVXFKDV123):KLGEH\,VODQG$JDLQDIWHUDWULDOSHULRGDQGHVWDEOLVKPHQWRILWV

FDSDELOLWLHVDV\VWHPFRXOGEHWULDOOHGRQVXUIDFHYHVVHOVZKLFKSURGXFHWKHLURZQQRLVHVWKDW

WKHV\VWHPZRXOGKDYHWRILOWHUWKURXJKDQGZKLFKPRYHWKURXJKWKHRFHDQDIXUWKHUFKDOOHQJH

QRWHQFRXQWHUHGRQVWDWLRQDU\VHQVRUV



0DUN7KRPDVHWDO0DULQH0DPPDO6SHFLHV&ODVVLILFDWLRQXVLQJ&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO1HWZRUNV

-$6&2$SSOLHG6FLHQFHV³$FRXVWLF0RQLWRULQJRI&DQDGD¶V(DVW&RDVW´DFFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVZZZMDVFRFRPHVUI

2FHDQ1HWZRUNV&DQDGD³2YHUYLHZRI2EVHUYDWRULHV´DFFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVZZZRFHDQQHWZRUNVFDREVHUYDWRULHV

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


)LQDOO\DQRSWLPL]HGDQGSURYHQV\VWHPFRXOGEHUROOHGRXWRQZDUVKLSVDQGDLUFUDIWDV

GDWDFROOHFWLRQSODWIRUPVDQGRSHUDWHGLQSDUDOOHOZLWKPDQQHGV\VWHPV8OWLPDWHO\DVWDFWLFDO

FDSDELOLWLHVDQGUHDOWLPHDQDO\VLVLVSURYHQKXPDQRSHUDWRUVFRXOGEHSKDVHGRXWRUKDYHWKHLU

UROHVDGDSWHGDVUHTXLUHGIRURWKHUVHQVRUVRUWDVNVWKDWFDQQRWEHUHSOLFDWHGE\0/RQWKH

SODWIRUP

 7KURXJKRXWWKLVPRGHORILPSOHPHQWDWLRQGDWDRQDFWLYHDFRXVWLFSURFHVVLQJSDUWLFXODUO\

PXOWLVWDWLFRSHUDWLRQVZLWKPXOWLSOHSODWIRUPVFDQEHFROOHFWHGDQGLPSOHPHQWHGLQWRWKH

RFHDQRJUDSKLFPRGHOVDVZHOODVWKHRSHUDWLQJV\VWHPV$ORQJDOORIWKHVHVWDJHVWKHUHZLOOEH

DQHHGWRLQFRUSRUDWHQHZGDWDLQWRVXEVHTXHQWXSJUDGHVDQGSUHSDUHWKHV\VWHPIRUWKHQH[WVWHS

RILPSOHPHQWDWLRQ

,WPD\JRZLWKRXWVD\LQJEXWDQ\IXWXUHSODWIRUPDFTXLUHGE\WKH&$)PXVWEHFDSDEOH

RIUDSLGXSJUDGHVWRWHFKQRORJ\ZLWKRXWKDYLQJWRJRWKURXJKH[WHQVLYHFRQWUDFWLQJRUXSJUDGH

SURFHVVHVWKDWUHQGHUWKHµQHZ¶WHFKQRORJ\REVROHWHEHIRUHLWLVLPSOHPHQWHG7KHXVHRIDQ

RSHQDUFKLWHFWXUHLVDOUHDG\SODQQHGIRUWKH&DQDGLDQ8:68DQGWKH861¶V3DQGVXEPDULQH

XSJUDGHV,WLVZLGHO\DFNQRZOHGJHGWKDWFRPPRQRIIWKHVKHOIHTXLSPHQWZLWKDQRSHQ

DUFKLWHFWXUHDOORZV³RQERDUGFRPSXWLQJSRZHUWRJURZDWQHDUO\WKHVDPHUDWHDVFRPPHUFLDO

LQGXVWU\´DQGDOORZVH[SHULPHQWDWLRQDQGUDSLGXSJUDGHVDVVHHQZLWKWKH$XVWUDOLDQ&¶V

LQLWLDWLYHWRDGRSW0/DOJRULWKPVIRUVHDUFKDQGUHVFXH(QVXULQJUDSLGDQGUHJXODUXSJUDGHV



-RKQ.HOOHU³%RHLQJWRXSJUDGHVRQDUVLJQDOSURFHVVLQJRQ1DY\3$DQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUH $6: 
DLUFUDIW´0LOLWDU\ $HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPFRPSXWHUVDUWLFOHERHLQJWRXSJUDGH621$5VLJQDOSURFHVVLQJRQ
QDY\SDDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUHDVZDLUFUDIW&DQDGD³8QGHUZDWHU:DUIDUH6XLWH8SJUDGH3URWHFWV6DLORUV)URP
4XLHWHU6XEPDULQHVDQG7RUSHGRHV´

-RKQ.HOOHU³621$56LJQDO3URFHVVLQJ-REXVLQJ&RPPHUFLDORIIWKHVKHOI &276 HTXLSPHQWJRHVWR
/RFNKHHG0DUWLQ´0LOLWDU\ $HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV0DUFK
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPFRPSXWHUVDUWLFOH621$5VLJQDOSURFHVVLQJMREXVLQJFRPPHUFLDO
RIIWKHVKHOIFRWVHTXLSPHQWJRHVWRORFNKHHGPDUWLQ

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


FDQEHPDGHLVGHVLUDEOHDQG&276HTXLSPHQWZLWKDQRSHQDUFKLWHFWXUHVKRXOGEHWKHVWDQGDUG

IRUIXWXUHSODWIRUPVSDUWLFXODUO\LIDGRSWLRQRI0/LVSODQQHG

7KHUHPD\EHPDQ\DUJXPHQWVIRUZK\WKHDGRSWLRQRI0/RQERDUGPLOLWDU\SODWIRUPV

IRU$6:ZLOOEHGLIILFXOWQRWOHDVWRIZKLFKDUHWKHQXPEHURISHRSOHZKRZRXOGQHHGWREH

LQYROYHGLQWKHHIIRUWWKHSDUWQHUVKLSVUHTXLUHGEHWZHHQJRYHUQPHQWRUJDQL]DWLRQVDQG

FRQWUDFWRUVDQGWKHVFRSHRIWKHSURMHFWRYHUVHYHUDO\HDUVDQGWKURXJKPXOWLSOHSKDVHV

6HFXULQJWKHH[SHUWLVHWRH[HFXWHWKHSURMHFWIURPZLWKLQWKHPLOLWDU\¶VDOUHDG\VKRUWVWDIIHG

FDGUHRIDFRXVWLFDQDO\VWVDQGIURPDPRQJGDWDDQDO\VWVDQG0/H[SHUWVZKRDUHLQKLJKGHPDQG

DFURVVQHDUO\HYHU\LQGXVWU\ZRXOGDOVREHFKDOOHQJLQJEXWQRWLPSRVVLEOH

)LQDOO\FRVWDVZLWKDQ\SURMHFWRIWKLVPDJQLWXGHZRXOGQHHGWREHFDUHIXOO\

FRQVLGHUHG7KRPDVHWDORXWOLQHGWKHHTXLSPHQWXVHGLQWKHLUH[SHULPHQW$FXUVRU\VHDUFKLQWR

WKHFRVWRIFRPSRQHQWVXVHGIRUWKHLUUHVHDUFKWRWDOOHG:KLOHWKHZRUOGLVZLWQHVVLQJ

HYHULQFUHDVLQJFRPSXWLQJSRZHUDQG³XQIDWKRPDEOHGDWDVWRUDJHFDSDFLW\´WKHUHTXLUHPHQWV

IRUDSURMHFWRIWKHPDJQLWXGHRIUHSOLFDWLQJDOOWDVNVRIDFRXVWLFVHQVRURSHUDWRUVRQSODWIRUPVLQ

UHDOWLPHDQGDOOWKHVWDJHVOHDGLQJXSWRLWZRXOGQHHGWREHDFFXUDWHO\FRVWHGLQRUGHUWRZHLJK

WKHEHQHILWVDJDLQVWWKHUHVRXUFHVUHTXLUHG

2QFHWKLVFRVWEHQHILWDQDO\VLVLVFRPSOHWHGKRZHYHULWLVWKHSRVLWLRQRIWKLVSDSHUWKDW

WKHEHQHILWVRIDGRSWLQJ0/DERDUGPLOLWDU\$6:SODWIRUPVZLOOIDURXWZHLJKWKHFRVWVDQG

GLVDGYDQWDJHVDQGVKRXOGEHH[SORUHGIXUWKHUDQGWKHILUVWVWHSVXQGHUWDNHQZLWKRXWGHOD\



7KRPDVHWDO³0DULQH0DPPDO6SHFLHV&ODVVLILFDWLRQXVLQJ&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO1HWZRUNV7KRPDV
HWDOVWDWHWKDW³7KH&11VZHUHLPSOHPHQWHGLQ3\WKRQXVLQJWKH3\7RUFKRSHQVRXUFHGHHSOHDUQLQJSODWIRUP
7UDLQLQJZDVGLVWULEXWHGRYHUIRXU19,',$33DVFDO*38VHDFKHTXLSSHGZLWK*%RIPHPRU\´$FXUVRU\
VHDUFKVKRZHGVLPLODUFRPSRQHQWVSULFHGDWHDFK³7KHVDPSOLQJURXWLQHDQGVXEVHTXHQWGDWDSURFHVVLQJ
ZDVSHUIRUPHGLQSDUDOOHORQWZRFRUH,QWHO(&38V´$JDLQDTXLFNVHDUFKZDVFRQGXFWHGDQGSULFHG
WKHVHDWHDFK

(ULF7RSRO7KH&UHDWLYH'HVWUXFWLRQRI0HGLFLQH

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


CHAPTER 11: CONCLUSION

)RRWEDOO
VJUHDWGLFKRWRP\OLHVLQWKHMX[WDSRVLWLRQRILWVKLGHERXQGFRQVHUYDWLYHVRFLDO
FXOWXUHDJDLQVWSURIHVVLRQDOVSRUWV
PRVWLQFHVVDQWWDFWLFDOLQQRYDWLRQ,QRWKHUZRUGV
UHYROXWLRQDU\LGHDVDUHGHULGHGXQWLOWKH\EHFRPHLQWHJUDWHG

 &KULV:HVVHOLQJ7KH2KLR5LYHU2IIHQVH

:KLOHWKLVLVDTXRWHDERXWIRRWEDOO$6:DQGQDYDORSHUDWLRQVKDYHOLNHZLVHIHDWXUHGD

FRQWUDVWEHWZHHQFXWWLQJHGJHWHFKQRORJ\DQGDQDIILQLW\IRUPDLQWDLQLQJWKHVWDWXVTXR$WRQH

SRLQWLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI$,'HHS1HXUDO1HWZRUNVZHUHGLVPLVVHGE\WKH$,FRPPXQLW\³DV

WKHQRQVHQVLFDOUDPEOLQJVRIDVFLHQWLVWZRUNLQJRQWKHIULQJH´EXWKDYHVLQFHEHHQHVWDEOLVKHG

DVWKHEDFNERQHRIPRVWRIWKHDGYDQFHVRI$,LQWKHODVWIHZ\HDUV

$VSUHYLRXVO\GHVFULEHGWKHWLWOHRIWKLVSDSHUDOOXGHVWR³WUDQVIRUPDWLRQWKDW

DFFRPSDQLHVUDGLFDOLQQRYDWLRQ´7KLVSDSHUDLPHGWRRXWOLQHKRZDGYDQFHVLQ0/FRXOG

UDGLFDOO\FKDQJHWKHILHOGRI$6:WKURXJKDSSOLFDWLRQWRWKHVHQVRURSHUDWRUWDVNVFXUUHQWO\

FDUULHGRXWE\KXPDQVHQVRURSHUDWRUVLQ$6:DVZHOODVWRGHPRQVWUDWHKRZ&DQDGD¶V

PDQQLQJFKDOOHQJHVSRVLWLRQDVDWHFKQRORJ\OHDGHUDQGFXUUHQWVWDJHVLQWKHDFTXLVLWLRQSURFHVV

RIQHZ$6:SODWIRUPVUHSUHVHQWDQLGHDOWLPHWRFRQVLGHUPDNLQJZKDWDPRXQWVWRDQHVVHQWLDO

WHFKQRORJLFDOOHDSIRU&DQDGD¶VQH[WJHQHUDWLRQRI$6:SODWIRUPVLQRUGHUWRPDLQWDLQRXU

SRVLWLRQDVDFDSDEOH$6:SDUWQHU

$FURVVWKHFKDSWHUVRIWKLVSDSHULWKDVEHHQDUJXHGWKDW0/SURFHVVHVWKDWKDYHEHHQ

XVHGWRWUDQVIRUPFRXQWOHVVLQGXVWULHVDQGSURGXFWVKDYHDOVREHHQVXFFHVVIXOO\DSSOLHGWR

FODVVLI\VKLSVVXEPDULQHVDQGPDULQHOLIHDQGKROGWKHSRWHQWLDOWRFDUU\RXWPDQ\RIWKH

LQGLYLGXDOWDVNVFXUUHQWO\FDUULHGRXWE\DFRXVWLFVHQVRURSHUDWRUVRQ&DQDGLDQ$6:SODWIRUPV



&KULV:HVVHOLQJ³7KH2KLR5LYHU2IIHQVH´1)/FRPDFFHVVHG-DQXDU\
KWWSZZZQIOFRPRKLRULYHURIIHQVH

$P\:HEE7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS+XPDQLW\

(ULF7RSRO7KH&UHDWLYH'HVWUXFWLRQRI0HGLFLQHY

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


7KLVZDVGRQHWKURXJKILUVWRXWOLQLQJEDVLFSULQFLSOHVRI$6:$,DQG0/FRQFHSWVDVZHOO

UHFHQW&$)DQGJRYHUQPHQWGRFXPHQWDWLRQUHODWHGWRWKHPLOLWDU\DGRSWLRQRI$,&KDSWHU

ZKLFKJDYHDQRYHUYLHZRIWKHWDVNVRIVHQVRURSHUDWRUVWKHLUSODWIRUPVMRESURJUHVVLRQDQG

FKDOOHQJHVLQKHUHQWLQWKHFRQGXFWRIWKHLUMREVIUDPHGWKHGLVFXVVLRQRI$,DQG0/FDSDELOLWLHV

WRIROORZ&KDSWHUH[DPLQHGUHFHQWUHVHDUFKLQWRWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRI0/WR$6:WDVNVDQG

RXWOLQHGKRZFXUUHQWDSSOLFDWLRQVLQVHHPLQJO\XQUHODWHGILHOGVFDQSRWHQWLDOO\EHDSSOLHGWRWKH

PXOWLWXGHRIWDVNVDFURVVWKHSKDVHVRI$6:7KHWUDQVLWLRQIURPWKHUHVHDUFKODERUDWRU\WRWKH

WDFWLFDOHQYLURQPHQWJHQHUDWHVVHYHUDOWDFWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQVIRU$6:SODWIRUPVZKLFKZHUH

H[SORUHGLQ&KDSWHU7KHVHLQFOXGHDGGUHVVLQJELDVLQGDWDWKHKHVLWDQF\RIRSHUDWRUVWRWUXVW

WKHLQQHUZRUNLQJVRIµEODFNER[¶V\VWHPVLQWHURSHUDELOLW\ZLWKDOOLHVDQGWKHDGYDQWDJHVDQG

SLWIDOOVRIDYHUVLRQRIQHWZRUNHGZDUIDUHWRH[FKDQJHGDWDEHWZHHQSODWIRUPV7KHH[SORUDWLRQ

RIFXUUHQWDQGIXWXUHLQLWLDWLYHVRIRXUDGYHUVDULHVDOOLHVDQGWKHVWDWXVRI&DQDGLDQ$6:

SODWIRUPOLIHF\FOHVZDVSUHVHQWHGDQGGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWIRURWKHUQDWLRQVWKHDGRSWLRQRI0/

LQVHQVRURSHUDWLRQVLQFOXGLQJ$6:LVQRWDUHYROXWLRQDU\LGHDQRULVWKHLGHDRILQWHJUDWLQJLW

UDGLFDOLQIDFWLWLVDOUHDG\XQGHUZD\&KDSWHUORRNHGWRWKHIXWXUHWRGHPRQVWUDWHKRZ

WUDQVIRUPDWLYHWR$6:HPHUJLQJWHFKQRORJLHVFRXOGEHDQGWKDWDFRPPRQWKUHDGWKURXJKWKH

IXWXUHLVWKHLQFRUSRUDWLRQRI0/LQWRWKRVHWHFKQRORJLHV

:KLOHWKLVSDSHUGLGQRWSURSRVHDVLQJOH³PDJLFDOJRULWKP´WKDWZLOOFDUU\RXWDOORIWKH

WDVNVVHQVRURSHUDWRUVFRQGXFWLQ$6:LWGLGRXWOLQHDVHULHVRILPSOHPHQWDWLRQVWHSVWKDWFRXOG

WUDQVIRUPDOODUHDVRIWKH$6:PLVVLRQIURPSUHPLVVLRQLQIRUPDWLRQJDWKHULQJDQGPLVVLRQ

SODQQLQJWKURXJKWRWKHGHWHFWLRQDQGWUDFNLQJRIDVXEPDULQHLQUHDOWLPHWRSRVWPLVVLRQGDWD

H[WUDFWLRQDQGLQWHOOLJHQFHSURGXFWLRQ7KH&$)VKRXOGPDNHDFRQFHUWHGHIIRUWWRLGHQWLI\

RWKHUDUHDVFXUUHQWO\EHLQJSHUIRUPHGE\KXPDQVZKLFKFRXOGHLWKHUEHUHSODFHGRUEHPRUH


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


HIIHFWLYHO\FDUULHGRXWE\OHYHUDJLQJWKHVHWHFKQRORJLHVVXFKDV3URFHVVLQJ([SORLWDWLRQDQG

'LVVHPLQDWLRQRILQWHOOLJHQFHSURGXFWVWKDWFRXOGEHDXWRPDWHGRUFDUULHGRXWE\0/WUDLQHG

FRPSXWHUV6LQFHDOJRULWKPVDQGDGYDQFHVLQRQHILHOGFDQRIWHQEHXVHGLQVHHPLQJO\XQUHODWHG

DUHDVWKH&$)VKRXOGDOVRLGHQWLI\DQ\DUHDVZKHUH0/LVDOUHDG\LQXVHWRDXJPHQWRWKHU

VHQVRUVDQGWDVNVDQGORRNWRKRZWKH\FRXOGEHDSSOLHGWR$6:VHQVRUV

7KLVSDSHU¶VXOWLPDWHFRQFOXVLRQLVWKDWWKHUHLVPDVVLYHSRWHQWLDOIRULPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI

0/WRDXJPHQWKXPDQVHQVRURSHUDWRUV¶PXOWLWXGHRIWDVNVDQGZLWKDFRQFHUWHGHIIRUWDQ0/

V\VWHPFRXOGEHDVVHPEOHGZKLFKUHSURGXFHVDOORIWKHLQGLYLGXDOQRQSK\VLFDOWDVNVFDUULHGRXW

E\WKHVHKLJKO\WUDLQHGH[SHUWV,PSOHPHQWLQJWKHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVRIWKLVSDSHUZRXOGEHRQO\

RQHRIWKHFRXQWOHVVZD\VWKH&$)FRXOGJDLQDGYDQWDJHVWKURXJKOHYHUDJHRI$,0/7KHVH

WHFKQRORJLHVRIIHUWKHSRWHQWLDOWRVLJQLILFDQWO\DXJPHQWWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIRXUWDFWLFDOXQLWV

DJDLQVWDGYHUVDULHVDQGH[HFXWHPRUHWDVNVFRQFXUUHQWO\RYHUDODUJHUEDWWOHVSDFHZKLOHDWWKH

VDPHWLPHUHGXFLQJFRVWVLQWHUPVRIPDQQLQJDQGSRWHQWLDOO\LQWHUPVRIQXPEHURISODWIRUPV

UHTXLUHG,QDQLGHDOFDVHRIIXOOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQWKHUHLVDOVRDQRSSRUWXQLW\WRGLUHFWO\UHSODFH

WKHFXUUHQWUROHVRIKXQGUHGVRISRVLWLRQVZKLFKFRXOGWKHQEHUHDOORFDWHGWRRWKHUWDVNVLQ

HPHUJLQJGRPDLQVLQZKLFKWKH&$)LVVHHNLQJWRH[SDQGWKHQXPEHURISRVLWLRQVVXFKDVF\EHU

DQGVSDFHRSHUDWRUV

7KH*RYHUQPHQWRI&DQDGDDQGWKH&$)'1'KDYHLPSOHPHQWHGQXPHURXV³ILUVWVWHSV´

LQWHUPVRIGDWDVWUDWHJLHVDQGRWKHULQLWLDWLYHVDVRXWOLQHGLQWKLVSDSHU:LWKWKHSODQQHG

DFTXLVLWLRQRIQHZ$6:QDYDOYHVVHOVDQGDLUFUDIWZLWKLQWKHFRPLQJGHFDGHWKHWLPHLVQRZWR

EHJLQWKHSURFHVVRILPSOHPHQWLQJ0/LQQRYDWLRQVLQWRWKHVH$6:SODWIRUPVLQRUGHUWRUHPDLQ

DUHOHYDQWDQGFDSDEOH$6:SDUWQHUDPRQJRXUDOOLHVDQGWRHQVXUHZHDUHDEOHWRFRQWLQXHWR

GHIHQGRXUQDWLRQDOPDULWLPHLQWHUHVWV


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


BIBLIOGRAPHY

$OSD\GLQ(WKHP0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJWKH1HZ$,7KH0,73UHVV,6%1

$UWXVL(&KDLOODQ)³$XWRPDWLF5HFRJQLWLRQRI8QGHUZDWHU$FRXVWLF6LJQDWXUHIRU1DYDO
$SSOLFDWLRQV´VW0DULWLPH6LWXDWLRQDO$ZDUHQHVV:RUNVKRS 06$: 

%HQVRQ-HII³$QHZHUDLQ$QWL6XEPDULQHZDUIDUH´861,1HZV$XJXVW
KWWSVQHZVXVQLRUJRSLQLRQQHZHUDDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUH

%HUWKLDXPH/HH³&DQDGLDQ1DY\'HFLGHVWR6WDUW8SJUDGHVWR([WHQG/LIHRI$JLQJ6XEPDULQH
)OHHW´1DWLRQDO3RVW-DQXDU\KWWSVQDWLRQDOSRVWFRPQHZVSROLWLFVFDQDGLDQ
QDY\SUHVVLQJDKHDGRQOLIHH[WHQVLRQVIRUVXEPDULQHV

&DQDGD5R\DO&DQDGLDQ1DY\³&DQDGLDQ3DWURO)ULJDWHV´$FFHVVHG0D\
KWWSZZZQDY\PDULQHIRUFHVJFFDHQIOHHWXQLWVIULJDWHVKRPHSDJH

&DQDGD*RYHUQPHQWRI&DQDGD³&DQDGLDQ6XUIDFH&RPEDWDQW´$FFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVZZZFDQDGDFDHQGHSDUWPHQWQDWLRQDOGHIHQFHVHUYLFHVSURFXUHPHQWFDQDGLDQ
VXUIDFHFRPEDWDQWKWPO

&DQDGD7KH'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHDQG&DQDGLDQ$UPHG)RUFHV'DWD6WUDWHJ\

&DQDGD3XEOLF:RUNVDQG*RYHUQPHQW6HUYLFHV&DQDGD³5),3URYLVLRQRID)ODQN$UUD\
6\VWHP±9LFWRULDFODVV0RGHUQL]DWLRQ 9&0  :$ ´$FFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVEX\DQGVHOOJFFDSURFXUHPHQWGDWDWHQGHUQRWLFH3:9&0

&DQDGD6WURQJ6HFXUH(QJDJHG&DQDGD¶V'HIHQFH3ROLF\

&DQDGD7KH'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHDQG&DQDGLDQ$UPHG)RUFHV$FFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVIRUFHVFDHQFDUHHUDLUERUQHHOHFWURQLFVHQVRURSHUDWRU

&DQDGD'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH³&3$XURUD)OHHW0RGHUQL]DWLRQDQG/LIH
([WHQVLRQ´DFFHVVHG$SULOKWWSVZZZFDQDGDFDHQGHSDUWPHQWQDWLRQDO
GHIHQFHVHUYLFHVSURFXUHPHQWFSDXURUDKWPO

&DQDGD7KH'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHDQG&DQDGLDQ$UPHG)RUFHV³7DVN6WDWHPHQW
IRU0LOLWDU\2FFXSDWLRQDO6WUXFWXUH,GHQWLILFDWLRQ6RQDU2SHUDWRU´$FFHVVHG
0D\KWWSVZZZFDQDGDFDHQGHSDUWPHQWQDWLRQDOGHIHQFHFRUSRUDWHSROLFLHV
VWDQGDUGVPHGLFDOVWDQGDUGVPLOLWDU\RFFXSDWLRQVPLOLWDU\RFFXSDWLRQDOVWUXFWXUHLG
WDVNVWDWHPHQWVQRQFRPPLVVLRQHGPHPEHUVPRVLG621$5RSKWPO

&DQDGD7KH'HSDUWPHQWRI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFHDQG&DQDGLDQ$UPHG)RUFHV5R\DO&DQDGLDQ
1DY\³8QGHUZDWHU:DUIDUH6XLWH8SJUDGHSURWHFWVVDLORUVIURPTXLHWHUVXEPDULQHVDQG
WRUSHGRHV´$FFHVVHG0DUFKKWWSZZZQDY\

‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


PDULQHIRUFHVJFFDHQLQQRYDWLRQLQQRYDWLRQYLHZSDJH"GRF XQGHUZDWHUZDUIDUHVXLWH
XSJUDGHSURWHFWVVDLORUVIURPTXLHWHUVXEPDULQHVDQGWRUSHGRHVMZPI\VF

&KDEULHO*LOOHVDQG%DUUqUH-HDQ³$GDSWLYH7DUJHW'HWHFWLRQ7HFKQLTXHVIRU2)'0%DVHG
3DVVLYH5DGDU([SORLWLQJ6SDWLDO'LYHUVLW\´,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ6LJQDO3URFHVVLQJ
,QVWLWXWHRI(OHFWULFDODQG(OHFWURQLFV(QJLQHHUV  SS
763KDO

&KRL.)D]HNDV*6DQGOHU0&KR.³&RQYROXWLRQDOUHFXUUHQWQHXUDOQHWZRUNVIRUPXVLF
FODVVLILFDWLRQ´,(((,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ$FRXVWLFV6SHHFKDQG6LJQDO
3URFHVVLQJ ,&$663 SS±,(((  

&KXQJ(PLO\³$OEDWURVVHVXVHGDVIO\LQJVSLHVWRGHWHFWLOOHJDOILVKLQJERDWV´&%&1HZV
3RVWHG-DQ$FFHVVHG-DQXDU\
KWWSVZZZFEFFDQHZVWHFKQRORJ\DOEDWURVVHVLOOHJDOILVKLQJ

&RKHQ=DFKDU\³86/DXQFKHVµ0RVW$GYDQFHG¶6WHDOWK6XE$PLG8QGHUVHD5LYDOU\´
&11FRP2FWREHUKWWSVZZZFQQFRPSROLWLFVQDY\XVVVRXWK
GDNRWDVXEPDULQHFKLQDUXVVLDLQGH[KWPO

&RXULHU1HZVDQG3XEOLVKLQJ:LQJ&ROG/DNH³%HFRPHDQ$LUERUQH(OHFWURQLF6HQVRU
2SHUDWRU´$SULOKWWSFRXULHUQHZVFDEHFRPHDQDLUERUQH
HOHFWURQLFVHQVRURSHUDWRU

&ULDGR3HUH]&DUROLQH³7KH'HDGO\7UXWK$ERXWD:RUOG%XLOW)RU0HQ±)URP6WDE9HVWVWR
&DU&UDVKHV´7KH*XDUGLDQFRP)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZWKHJXDUGLDQFRPOLIHDQGVW\OHIHEWUXWKZRUOGEXLOWIRUPHQFDU
FUDVKHV

'$53$³$&789³6HD+XQWHU´3URWRW\SH7UDQVLWLRQVWR2IILFHRI1DYDO5HVHDUFKIRU)XUWKHU
'HYHORSPHQW´'$53$PLO-DQXDU\KWWSVZZZGDUSDPLOQHZVHYHQWV
D

'DV$.XPDU$DQG%DKO5³0DULQHYHVVHOFODVVLILFDWLRQEDVHGRQSDVVLYH621$5GDWD
WKHFHSVWUXPEDVHGDSSURDFK´,(75DGDU621$5 1DYLJDWLRQ  

'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV1DY\³$1644 9 8QGHUVHD:DUIDUH$QWL6XEPDULQH
:DUIDUH&RPEDW6\VWHP´DFFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVZZZQDY\PLOQDY\GDWDIDFWBGLVSOD\DVS"FLG  WLG  FW 

'LFNVRQ%HQ³6HOI6XSHUYLVHG/HDUQLQJLVWKH)XWXUHRI$,´7KH1H[W:HE$SULO
KWWSVWKHQH[WZHEFRPQHXUDOVHOIVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJLVWKHIXWXUHRIDL
V\QGLFDWLRQ



‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


'RQDOG'DYLG³1$72-RLQW7DQNHU7UDQVSRUWDQG03$3URJUDPV$GYDQFH´$,12QOLQH
)HEUXDU\KWWSVZZZDLQRQOLQHFRPDYLDWLRQQHZVGHIHQVHQDWRMRLQW
WDQNHUWUDQVSRUWDQGPSDSURJUDPVDGYDQFH

'XQORS'DYLG³)XWXUH3URRILQJWKH7\SH)ULJDWH´&DQDGLDQ1DYDO5HYLHZ9ROXPH
1XPEHU6SULQJ

(YDQV*DUHWK³&DWDQG0RXVH7KH$UWRI6XEPDULQH'HWHFWLRQ´1DYDO7HFKQRORJ\FRP
-XQHKWWSVZZZQDYDOWHFKQRORJ\FRPIHDWXUHVIHDWXUH

*OREDO1HZV³:KDWLV3URMHFW0DYHQ"7KH3HQWDJRQ$,SURMHFW*RRJOHHPSOR\HHVZDQWRXW
RI´*OREDO1HZV$SULOKWWSVJOREDOQHZVFDQHZVJRRJOHSHQWDJRQDL
SURMHFWPDYHQ

*OREDO6HFXULW\RUJ³6WDWXV.DQ\RQ2FHDQ0XOWLSXUSRVH6\VWHP´$FFHVVHG0DUFK
KWWSVZZZJOREDOVHFXULW\RUJZPGZRUOGUXVVLDVWDWXVKWP

*OREH&RPSRVLWH6ROXWLRQV//&³,V&KLQD7DNLQJWKH/HDGLQ6XEPDULQH3URSXOVLRQ"´
JOREHFRPSRVLWHFRPDFFHVVHG0DUFK
KWWSVZZZJOREHFRPSRVLWHFRPEORJFKLQDVXEPDULQHSURSXOVLRQWHFKQRORJ\

7KH*XDUGLDQ³7VXQDPLRIGDWDFRXOGFRQVXPHILIWKRIJOREDOHOHFWULFLW\E\´7KH
*XDUGLDQFRP'HFHPEHU
KWWSVZZZWKHJXDUGLDQFRPHQYLURQPHQWGHFWVXQDPLRIGDWDFRXOGFRQVXPH
ILIWKJOREDOHOHFWULFLW\E\

+DPEOLQJ'DYLG³7KH7UXWK%HKLQG5XVVLD¶V$SRFDO\SVH7RUSHGR´3RSXODU0HFKDQLFV
-DQXDU\KWWSVZZZSRSXODUPHFKDQLFVFRPPLOLWDU\ZHDSRQVDUXVVLD
DSRFDO\SVHWRUSHGRSRVHLGRQ

+DR.DUHQ³$,LV6HQGLQJ3HRSOHWR-DLO±DQG*HWWLQJLW:URQJ´0,77HFKQRORJ\5HYLHZ
-DQXDU\https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/01/21/137783/algorithms-criminal-justice-ai/

-DFNVRQ-HQQ³-XQLRU621$52SHUDWRUV/HDUQ+RZ7R+HDUDQG7UDFND6XEPDULQH´
'HFHPEHUKWWSZZZQDY\PDULQHIRUFHVJFFDHQQHZVRSHUDWLRQVQHZV
YLHZSDJH"GRF MXQLRU621$5RSHUDWRUVOHDUQKRZWRKHDUDQGWUDFND
VXEPDULQH)N]IWIS

-$6&2$SSOLHG6FLHQFHV³$FRXVWLF0RQLWRULQJRI&DQDGD¶V(DVW&RDVW´DFFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVZZZMDVFRFRPHVUI

-LQ*XDQJKDR/LX)DQ:X+DR 6RQJ4XLQ]HQJ³'HHS/HDUQLQJEDVHG)UDPHZRUNIRU
H[SDQVLRQUHFRJQLWLRQDQGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIXQGHUZDWHUDFRXVWLFVLJQDO´-RXUQDORI
([SHULPHQWDO 7KHRUHWLFDO$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH'2,
;



‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


.DWZDOD$PLW³4XDQWXP&RPSXWHUV:LOO&KDQJHWKH:RUOG ,I7KH\:RUN ´:LUHGFRP


0DUFKKWWSVZZZZLUHGFRXNDUWLFOHTXDQWXPFRPSXWLQJH[SODLQHG

.HOOHU-RKQ³%RHLQJWR,QWHJUDWH([WUD&UHZ:RUNVWDWLRQVLQ8SJUDGHWR3$3RVHLGRQ
0DULWLPH6XUYHLOODQFH$LUFUDIW´0LOLWDU\DQG$HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV$XJXVW
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPFRPSXWHUVDUWLFOHSDSRVHLGRQFUHZ
ZRUNVWDWLRQVXSJUDGH

.HOOHU-RKQ³%RHLQJWRXSJUDGHVRQDUVLJQDOSURFHVVLQJRQ1DY\3$DQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUH
$6: DLUFUDIW´0LOLWDU\ $HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPFRPSXWHUVDUWLFOHERHLQJWRXSJUDGH
621$5VLJQDOSURFHVVLQJRQQDY\SDDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUHDVZDLUFUDIW

.HOOHU-RKQ³1DY\,QWHUHVWHGLQ1HZ&RPSXWLQJDQG6HQVRU7HFKQRORJLHVIRU6KLSERDUGDQG
6XEPDULQH621$50LOLWDU\ $HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV-XO\
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPFRPSXWHUVDUWLFOHQDY\LQWHUHVWHGLQQHZ
FRPSXWLQJDQGVHQVRUWHFKQRORJLHVIRUVKLSERDUGDQGVXEPDULQH621$5

.HOOHU-RKQ³621$56LJQDO3URFHVVLQJ-REXVLQJ&RPPHUFLDORIIWKHVKHOI &276 
HTXLSPHQWJRHVWR/RFNKHHG0DUWLQ´0LOLWDU\ $HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV0DUFK
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPFRPSXWHUVDUWLFOH621$5VLJQDO
SURFHVVLQJMREXVLQJFRPPHUFLDORIIWKHVKHOIFRWVHTXLSPHQWJRHVWRORFNKHHGPDUWLQ

.HOOHU-RKQ³2SLQLRQ861DY\6KRXOG5HO\RQ8QPDQQHG6\VWHPVDQG6HQVRUVWR)LQG
7UDFNDQG$WWDFN(QHP\6XEPDULQHV´0LOLWDU\DQG$HURVSDFH(OHFWURQLFV$SULO
KWWSVZZZPLOLWDU\DHURVSDFHFRPXQPDQQHGDUWLFOHXQPDQQHG
DQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUHDVZVHQVRUV

.QLJKW:LOO³&KLQD¶V$,$ZDNHQLQJ´7HFKQRORJ\5HYLHZFRP2FWREHU
KWWSVZZZWHFKQRORJ\UHYLHZFRPFKLQDVDLDZDNHQLQJ

.RQVWDQWLQRV3VDOOLGDV:KLWFRPE&OLIIRUG$DQG+RRWPDQ-RKQ³'HVLJQRI&RQYHQWLRQDO
6XEPDULQHVZLWK$GYDQFHG$LU,QGHSHQGHQW3URSXOVLRQ6\VWHPVDQG'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI
&RUUHVSRQGLQJ7KHDWHU/HYHO,PSDFWV´&DPEULGJH0$0DVVDFKXVHWWV,QVWLWXWHRI
7HFKQRORJ\

/7HFKQRORJLHV³+(/5$6'6±+HOLFRSWHU/RQJ5DQJH$FWLYH6RQDU´DFFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVZZZOWFRPRFHDQV\VWHPVKHOUDVBGVKWP

/D\WRQ3HWHU³:RUNLQJ3DSHU)LIWK*HQHUDWLRQ$LU:DUIDUH´5R\DO$XVWUDOLDQ$LU)RUFH
$LU3RZHU'HYHORSPHQW&HQWUH

/OR\G¶V5HJLVWHU³0DULQH 6KLSSLQJ´$FFHVVHG0D\KWWSVZZZOURUJHQPDULQH
VKLSSLQJ



‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


/RFNKHHG0DUWLQ³3ODQ-HULFKR*LYLQJ$XVWUDOLDWKH(GJH´/RFNKHHGPDUWLQFRP$FFHVVHG
$SULOKWWSVZZZORFNKHHGPDUWLQFRPHQXVQHZVIHDWXUHVSODQMHULFKR
JLYLQJDXVWUDOLDWKHHGJHKWPO

/RXFNV-HII+XSIHU6XVDQQH-DUYLV'DYLGDQG0XUSK\7LPRWK\³)XWXUHLQWKH%DODQFH"
+RZ&RXQWULHVDUH3XUVXLQJDQ$,$GYDQWDJH´'HORLWWH,QVLJKWV0D\
KWWSVZZZGHORLWWHFRPXVHQLQVLJKWVIRFXVFRJQLWLYHWHFKQRORJLHVDLLQYHVWPHQWE\
FRXQWU\KWPOHQGQRWH

/XKQ$OHF³5XVVLDQ6XEPDULQHV3RZHULQWR1RUWK$WODQWLFLQ%LJJHVW0DQRHXYUH6LQFH&ROG
:DU´7KH7HOHJUDSK2FWREHU
KWWSVZZZWHOHJUDSKFRXNQHZVUXVVLDQVXEPDULQHVSRZHUQRUWKDWODQWLF
ELJJHVWPDQRHXYUHVLQFH

0DUU%HUQDUG³,QFUHGLEOH([DPSOHV2I$,$QG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ,Q3UDFWLFH´
)RUEHVFRP$SULOKWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVEHUQDUGPDUU
LQFUHGLEOHH[DPSOHVRIDLDQGPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJLQSUDFWLFHDDDFFHVVHG
0DU

0DUU%HUQDUG³:KDWLVWKH'LIIHUHQFH%HWZHHQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHDQG0DFKLQH
/HDUQLQJ"´)RUEHVFRP'HFHPEHU
KWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVEHUQDUGPDUUZKDWLVWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ
DUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHDQGPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDIDFFHVVHG0DU

0D]]HWWL0DUNDQG6KDQNHU7KRP³5XVVLDQ6XEV3DWUROOLQJ2II(DVW&RDVWRI86´1HZ
<RUN7LPHV$XJXVWKWWSVZZZQ\WLPHVFRPZRUOGSDWUROKWPO

0F/HRG-DPHV³&DQDGD¶V1DY\LV'HYHORSLQJDQ$,9RLFH$VVLVWDQWIRU:DUVKLSVEXW'RQ¶W
:RUU\,W:RQ¶W&RQWUROWKH:HDSRQV´)LQDQFLDO3RVW0D\
KWWSVEXVLQHVVILQDQFLDOSRVWFRPWHFKQRORJ\FDQDGDVQDY\LVGHYHORSLQJDQDLYRLFH
DVVLVWDQWIRUZDUVKLSVEXWGRQWZRUU\LWZRQWFRQWUROWKHZHDSRQV

0HKWD$DURQ³3RODQG&DQDGDMRLQ1$720HPEHUVLQ3RWHQWLDO0DULWLPH6XUYHLOODQFH
$LUFUDIW%X\´'HIHQVHQHZVFRP)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZGHIHQVHQHZVFRPVPUPXQLFKVHFXULW\IRUXPSRODQGFDQDGD
MRLQQDWRPHPEHUVLQSRWHQWLDOPDULWLPHVXUYHLOODQFHDLUFUDIWEX\

0RXVDYL]DGHK$OH[DQGUD0RVWURXV$OH[LDQG&ODUN$OH[³7KH*OREDO$,,QGH[7KH$UPV
5DFH´+HQNHO9HQWXUHV$FFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVPHPEHUVWRUWRLVHPHGLDFRPJOREDODLLQGH[FRQWHQWKWPO

1$720DULWLPH0XOWL0LVVLRQ$LUFUDIW 0$ 6WDWHPHQWRI2SHUDWLRQDO5HTXLUHPHQW 625 
QG'UDIW0DUFK

2FHDQ1HWZRUNV&DQDGD³2YHUYLHZRI2EVHUYDWRULHV´DFFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVZZZRFHDQQHWZRUNVFDREVHUYDWRULHV


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG



2IILFHRI1DYDO5HVHDUFK³8QGHUVHD6LJQDO3URFHVVLQJ´$FFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVZZZRQUQDY\PLOHQ6FLHQFH7HFKQRORJ\'HSDUWPHQWV&RGHDOO
SURJUDPVXQGHUVHDVLJQDOSURFHVVLQJ

2IILFHRIWKH3ULPH0LQLVWHURI&DQDGD³0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH0DQGDWH/HWWHU´
'HFHPEHUKWWSVSPJFFDHQPDQGDWHOHWWHUVPLQLVWHUQDWLRQDO
GHIHQFHPDQGDWHOHWWHU

2[IRUG,QVLJKWV³*RYHUQPHQW$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH5HDGLQHVV,QGH[´
2[IRUGLQVLJKWVFRPDFFHVVHG0D\KWWSVZZZR[IRUGLQVLJKWVFRPDL
UHDGLQHVV

$GDP/3HQHQEHUJ³7KH$QWL6XE*DPH´)DVW&RPSDQ\2FWREHU
KWWSVZZZIDVWFRPSDQ\FRPDQWLVXEJDPH

3HUNLQV:LOOLDP³$OOLDQFH$LUERUQH$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH±$)RUHFDVWIRU0DULWLPH$LU
$6:LQWKH)XWXUH2SHUDWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQW´1$72-RLQW$LU3RZHU&RPSHWHQFH
&HQWUH-XQH

5DEELWWH3DW³$,:LOO+HOS6XEPDULQH&UHZV%HWWHU8QGHUVWDQG:KDW$GYHUVDULHV$UH'RLQJ
8QGHUZDWHU´7KH6RFLDEOH-XO\KWWSVVRFLDEOHFRWHFKQRORJ\DLZLOOKHOS
VXEPDULQHFUHZVEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGZKDWDGYHUVDULHVDUHGRLQJXQGHUZDWHU

5RJDWL0RQLFD³7KH$,+LHUDUFK\RI1HHGV´+DFNHUQRRQFRP-XQH
KWWSVKDFNHUQRRQFRPWKHDLKLHUDUFK\RIQHHGVIIFF

5R\DO$XVWUDOLDQ$LU)RUFH³$,6HDUFKWR7UDQVIRUP6HDUFK 5HVFXH´DFFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVZZZDLUIRUFHJRYDXQHZVDQGHYHQWVQHZVDLVHDUFKWUDQVIRUPVHDUFKUHVFXH

5R\DO$XVWUDOLDQ$LU)RUFH³(GJH)RFXV$UHDV´$FFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVZZZDLUIRUFHJRYDXRXUPLVVLRQSODQMHULFKRHGJHIRFXVDUHD

5R\DO$XVWUDOLDQ$LU)RUFH³3$3RVHLGRQ´DFFHVVHG$SULO
KWWSVZZZDLUIRUFHJRYDXWHFKQRORJ\DLUFUDIWLQWHOOLJHQFHVXUYHLOODQFHDQG
UHFRQQDLVVDQFHSDSRVHLGRQ

6%,5³0XOWLSOD\HU6HULRXV*DPHIRU$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH621$52SHUDWRU7UDLQLQJ´
$FFHVVHG$SULOKWWSVZZZVELUJRYQRGH

6HR,NVX.LP6HRQJZHRQ5\X<RXQJZRR3DUN-XQJ\RQJDQG+DQ'RQJ6HRJ
³8QGHUZDWHU0RYLQJ7DUJHW&ODVVLILFDWLRQ8VLQJ0XOWLOD\HU3URFHVVLQJ´$SSO6FL
GRLDSS

6WDYULGLV-DPHV'HVWUR\HU&DSWDLQ/HVVRQVRID)LUVW&RPPDQG1DYDO,QVWLWXWH3UHVV



‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


6WHSDQHQNR'PLWUL\³'DWD:DUHKRXVHYV'DWD/DNH:KLFKLV5LJKWIRU<RXU(QWHUSULVH$SS
'HYHORSPHQW(IIRUW"´7KH0HGLXPFRP)HEUXDU\
KWWSVPHGLXPFRP#GLVWLOOHU\WHFKGDWDZDUHKRXVHYVGDWDODNHZKLFKLVULJKWIRU
\RXUHQWHUSULVHDSSGHYHORSPHQWHIIRUWIDIGFD

6XWWRQ+,³&KLQD¶V6XEPDULQHV0D\%H&DWFKLQJXS:LWK861DY\´)RUEHV1RYHPEHU
KWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVKLVXWWRQODWHVWFKLQHVHVXEPDULQHV
FDWFKLQJXSZLWKXVQDY\DDFF

6XWWRQ+,³7KH&KLQHVH1DY\¶V1HZ0\VWHU\6XEPDULQH´)RUEHV2FWREHU
KWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVKLVXWWRQFKLQDQDY\QHZP\VWHU\
VXEPDULQHGEEDF

6WHLQ'DYLG6FKRRQPDNHU-RQDQG&RROEDXJK(ULF³+\SHUVSHFWUDO,PDJLQJIRU,QWHOOLJHQFH
6XUYHLOODQFHDQG5HFRQQDLVVDQFH'DWD$FTXLVLWLRQDQG([SORLWDWLRQ66&6DQ'LHJR
$XJXVW

7DGMGHK<DVPLQ³1DY\0DULQH&RUSV%RRVW,QYHVWPHQWLQ$,3ODWIRUPV´1DWLRQDO'HIHQVH
-XQHKWWSVZZZQDWLRQDOGHIHQVHPDJD]LQHRUJDUWLFOHVQDY\PDULQH
FRUSVERRVWLQYHVWPHQWLQDLSODWIRUPV

7KH7HFKQLXP³7KH6SHHGRI,QIRUPDWLRQ´NNRUJDFFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVNNRUJWKHWHFKQLXPWKHVSHHGRILQ

7KDWFKHU&KULV³6XEPDULQH+XQWHU$IWHUD'HFDGHRI3UHGRPLQDQWO\3HUIRUPLQJDQ2YHUODQG
5ROHWKH)RUPLGDEOH&3$XURUDLV*HWWLQJ%DFN8S7R6SHHG)RU,WV2ULJLQDO$QWL
6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH7DVN´5&$)7RGD\$FFHVVHG)HEUXDU\
KWWSVDUP\FDIRUXPVLQGH[SKS"DFWLRQ GODWWDFKWRSLF DWWDFK 

7KRPSVRQ/RUHQ³861DY\3ODQVWR6WRS%X\LQJ33RVHLGRQ6XE+XQWHUV'HVSLWH
*URZLQJ8QGHUVHD7KUHDW´)RUEHV'HFHPEHU
KWWSVZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVORUHQWKRPSVRQXVQDY\SODQVWRVWRSEX\LQJ
SSRVHLGRQVXEKXQWHUVGHVSLWHJURZLQJXQGHUVHDWKUHDWFFEIIH

7LHUQDQ5D\³$,5XQV6PDFN8S$JDLQVWD%LJ'DWD3UREOHPLQ&29,''LDJQRVLV´
='1HW$SULOKWWSVZZZQHZVEUHDNFRPQHZV2HUN)5=DLUXQVVPDFNXS
DJDLQVWDELJGDWDSUREOHPLQFRYLGGLDJQRVLV

7ROOHIVHQ&ULVWLQD'6³0XOWLVWDWLF3ODQQLQJ5HTXLUHPHQWV´'HIHQFH5HVHDUFKDQG
'HYHORSPHQW&DQDGD0D\

7RSRO(ULF7KH&UHDWLYH'HVWUXFWLRQRI0HGLFLQH+RZWKH'LJLWDO5HYROXWLRQ:LOO&UHDWH
%HWWHU+HDOWK&DUH1HZ<RUN%DVLF%RRNV

7UHYLWKLFN-RVHSK³5XVVLDQ6XEPDULQHV*HWWLQJ&RXQWHUPHDVXUHVWKDW-DP6RQREXR\V'URSSHG
E\(QHP\$LUFUDIW´7KH:DU]RQH0DUFKKWWSVZZZWKHGULYHFRPWKHZDU


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


]RQHUXVVLDQVXEPDULQHVJHWWLQJHOHFWURQLFZDUIDUHEXR\VWKDWMDPVRQREXR\V
GURSSHGE\HQHP\DLUFUDIW

7XFNHU3DWULFN³+RZ$,:LOO7UDQVIRUP$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH´'HIHQVH2QH-XO\
$FFHVVHG$SULOKWWSVZZZGHIHQVHRQHFRPWHFKQRORJ\KRZDLZLOO
WUDQVIRUPDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUH

8QLWHG6WDWHV1DY\³1DYDO2FHDQ3URFHVVLQJ)DFLOLW\:KLGEH\,VODQG:$´$FFHVVHG0D\
KWWSVZZZSXEOLFQDY\PLOVXEIRUFXV3DJHV123):,DVS[

9HUJXQ'DYLG³:LWKRXW(IIHFWLYH$,0LOLWDU\5LVNV/RVLQJ1H[W:DU*HQHUDO6D\V´
'HIHQVHJRY$FFHVVHG)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZGHIHQVHJRY([SORUH)HDWXUHVVWRU\$UWLFOHZLWKRXWHIIHFWLYHDL
PLOLWDU\ULVNVORVLQJQH[WZDUVD\VDLGLUHFWRUVRXUFH*RY'HOLYHU\

:DODQ'U$OH[DQGHU0*³$QWL6XEPDULQH:DUIDUH $6: &RQWLQXRXV7UDLO8QPDQQHG
9HVVHO $&789 ´'$53$PLOKWWSVZZZGDUSDPLOSURJUDPDQWLVXEPDULQHZDUIDUH
FRQWLQXRXVWUDLOXQPDQQHGYHVVHO

:DOVK)HUJXV³$,µ2XWSHUIRUPV¶'RFWRUV'LDJQRVLQJ%UHDVW&DQFHU´%%&1HZV-DQXDU\
KWWSVZZZEEFFRPQHZVKHDOWK

:HEE$P\7KH%LJ1LQH+RZWKH7HFK7LWDQV 7KHLU7KLQNLQJ0DFKLQHV&RXOG:DUS
+XPDQLW\1HZ<RUN3XEOLF$IIDLUV

:HVVHOLQJ&KULV³7KH2KLR5LYHU2IIHQVH´1)/FRP$FFHVVHG-DQXDU\
KWWSZZZQIOFRPRKLRULYHURIIHQVH

:RRG\&KULVWRSKHU³5XVVLDQVXEPDULQHDFWLYLW\LQWKH1RUWK$WODQWLFKDVUHSRUWHGO\
LQFUHDVHG
WHQIROG
DQGWKH8.LVVWUXJJOLQJWRNHHSXS´%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU0D\
KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPUXVVLDQVXEPDULQHDFWLYLW\LQFUHDVLQJDURXQGXNDQG
LQQRUWKDWODQWLF

:RRG\&KULVWRSKHU³6XEPDULQHVDUHLQFUHDVLQJO\OXUNLQJLQVHDVDURXQGWKHZRUOGDQGWKH86
1DY\
VKLJKWHFK3RVHLGRQLVWKHUHWRKXQWWKHP´%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU0D\
KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPXVQDY\SDSRVHLGRQVXEKXQWLQJDLUFUDIWIHDWXUHV
VDOHV

:RRG\&KULVWRSKHU³7RS86FRPPDQGHULQ(XURSHVD\V5XVVLD
VVXEVDUHJHWWLQJEXVLHUDV
7UXPSFXWVVXEKXQWLQJSODQHVIURPWKH3HQWDJRQEXGJHW´%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU)HEUXDU\
KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPUXVVLDVXEVJHWWLQJEXVLHUDQGKDUGHUWRWUDFNLQ
DWODQWLF

:RRG\&KULVWRSKHU³7KHPLOLWDU\
V
:DUIRU7DOHQW
LVDIIHFWLQJZKDWWKH1DY\
VIXWXUHVKLSV
ZLOOORRNOLNH´%XVLQHVV,QVLGHU)HEUXDU\:HEVLWH


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG


KWWSVZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPPLOLWDU\UHFUXLWLQJHIIRUWVDIIHFWLQJIXWXUHQDY\VKLS
GHVLJQV

:X+DR6RQJ4LQJ]HQJ-XQ*XDQJKDR³'HHS/HDUQLQJEDVHG)UDPHZRUNIRU8QGHUZDWHU
$FRXVWLF6LJQDO5HFRJQLWLRQDQG&ODVVLILFDWLRQ´&6$,
3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHQG
,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ&RPSXWHU6FLHQFHDQG$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH'HFHPEHU
±KWWSVGRLRUJ

<DQJ+RQJKXL/L-XQKDR6KHQ6KHQJDQG;X*XDQJKXL³$'HHS&RQYROXWLRQDO1HXUDO
1HWZRUN,QVSLUHGE\$XGLWRU\3HUFHSWLRQIRU8QGHUZDWHU$FRXVWLF7DUJHW5HFRJQLWLRQ´
6HQVRUV6HQVRUV

<XH+DR=KDQJ/LOXQ:DQJ'H]KL:DQJ<RQJ[LDQDQG/X=HQJTXDQ³7KH
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI8QGHUZDWHU$FRXVWLF7DUJHWV%DVHGRQ'HHS/HDUQLQJ0HWKRGV´
$GYDQFHVLQ,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPV5HVHDUFKYROXPH$WODQWLV3UHVV-DQXDU\


‹+HU0DMHVW\WKH4XHHQLQ5LJKWRI&DQDGDDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH0LQLVWHURI1DWLRQDO'HIHQFH
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG

You might also like