GIZ BR ESOF Product 4

ENERGY SYSTEMS
OF THE FUTURE:
Integrating variable renewable energy
sources in Brazil's energy matrix
PRODUCT 4:
METHODOLOGY STUDIES
Energy systems of the future: Final Report
Integrating variable renewable energy sources in Brazil's energy matrix
Processing No.: 15.2126.9-001.00
Energy Systems of the Future: Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Sources

in Brazil's Energy Matrix
Document Title: Product 4 – Methodology Studies

Título do Documento: Produto 4 – Estudos Metodológicos
Prepared by: Lahmeyer International GmbH

Elaborado por: Tractebel Engineering S.A.
PSR Soluções e Consultoria em Energia Ltda
Authors: Leonardo Rese, Rebecca Sinder (Tractebel)

Autores: Rafael Kelman (PSR)
Date: November 2019

Data: Novembro 2019
Coordination: Florian Geyer (GIZ)

Coordenação: Juarez Castrillon Lopes (EPE), in memoriam
Karim Karoui (Tractebel)
Leonardo Rese (Tractebel)
Livio Teixeira Filho (MME)
Marcelo Prais (ONS)
Rafael Kelman (PSR)
Renata Carvalho (EPE)
Roberto Castro (GIZ)
This study was carried out within the scope of the German Cooperation for Sustainable
Development, through the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
(GIZ), within the Energy Systems of the Future Program. On the Brazilian side, the
Program has as its political coordinating partner the Ministry of Mines and Energy
(MME), also counting on the participation of other relevant institutions in the national
electricity sector, such as the Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE) and the Operador
Nacional do Sistema Eletrico (ONS), technical implementing partners of this study.
Este estudo foi elaborado no âmbito da Cooperação Alemã para o Desenvolvimento

Sustentável, por intermédio da Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
Zusammenarbeit – GIZ, dentro do Programa Sistemas de Energia do Futuro. Pelo lado
brasileiro, o Programa tem como parceiro coordenador político o Ministério de Minas e
Energia (MME), contando também com a participação de outras relevantes instituições
do setor elétrico nacional, destacando aqui a Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE)
e o Operador do Sistema Elétrico Nacional (ONS), parceiros executores técnicos deste
estudo.
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Legal Information
1. All indications, data and results of this study were compiled and carefully reviewed
by the author(s). However, errors regarding the content cannot be avoided.
Consequently, neither GIZ or the author(s) can be held responsible for any direct or
indirect claim, loss or damage resulting from the use or reliance placed on the
information contained in this study, or directly or indirectly resulting from errors,
inaccuracies or omissions of information in this study.
2. Duplication or reproduction of all or parts of the study (including the transfer of data
to media storage systems) and distribution for non-commercial purposes is
permitted, provided GIZ is cited as the source of the information. For other
commercial uses, including duplication, reproduction or distribution of all or parts of
this study, written consent from GIZ is required.
Informações Legais
1. Todas as indicações, dados e resultados deste estudo foram compilados e

cuidadosamente revisados pelo(s) autor(es). No entanto, erros com relação ao
conteúdo não podem ser evitados. Consequentemente, nem a GIZ ou o(s) autor(es)
podem ser responsabilizados por qualquer reivindicação, perda ou prejuízo direto
ou indireto resultante do uso ou confiança depositada sobre as informações
contidas neste estudo, ou direta ou indiretamente resultante dos erros, imprecisões
ou omissões de informações neste estudo.
2. A duplicação ou reprodução de todo ou partes do estudo (incluindo a transferência
de dados para sistemas de armazenamento de mídia) e distribuição para fins não
comerciais é permitida, desde que a GIZ seja citada como fonte da informação.
Para outros usos comerciais, incluindo duplicação, reprodução ou distribuição de
todo ou partes deste estudo, é necessário o consentimento escrito da GIZ.
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List of Participants / Lista de Participantes
Steering Committee / Comitê Gestor

Florian Geyer (GIZ)
Juarez Castrillon Lopes (EPE)
Karim Karoui (Tractebel)
Leonardo Rese (Tractebel)
Marcelo Prais (ONS)
Rafael Kelman (PSR)
Renata Carvalho (EPE)
Roberto Castro (GIZ)
Technical Committee / Comitê Técnico – EPE

Bruno Cesar Mota Macada; Bruno Scarpa Alves da Silveira; Caio Monteiro
Leocadio; Carolina Moreira Borges; Cristiano Saboia Ruschel; Daniel José
Tavares de Souza; Fabiano Schmidt; Fabio de Almeida Rocha; Flavio Alberto
Figueredo Rosa; Gabriel Konzen; Glaysson de Mello Muller ; Gustavo
Brandão Haydt de Souza; Gustavo Pires da Ponte; Gustavo Valeriano Neves
Luizon; Igor Chaves; Jean Carlo Morassi; João Henriques Magalhães
Almeida; Jorge Trinkenreich; Jose Filho da Costa Castro; José Marcos
Bressane; Leandro Moda; Leandro Pereira de Andrade; Lucas Simões de
Oliveira; Luiz Felipe Froede Lorentz; Marcelo Willian Henriques Szrajbman;
Marcos Vinícius G. da S. Farinha; Maria Cecilia Pereira de Araújo; Maxwell
Cury Junior; Paulo Fernando de Matos Araujo; Pedro Americo Moretz-Sohn
David; Renata de Azevedo Moreira da Silva; Renato Haddad Simões
Machado; Rodrigo Ribeiro Ferreira; Rodrigo Rodrigues Cabral; Roney
Nakano Vitorino ; Samir de Oliveira Ferreira; Sergio Felipe Falcão Lima;
Simone Quaresma Brandão; Thais Pacheco Teixeira; Thiago de Faria Rocha
Dourado Martins; Tiago Campos Rizzotto; Tiago Veiga Madureira.
Technical Committee / Comitê Técnico – ONS

André Snaider; Angela Barbosa Greenhalgh; Elder Sales de Santanna; Karine
Rejane de Oliveira Franca Louzada; Lillian Monteath; Paulo Eduardo Martins
Quintão; Roseane de Souza Nunes; Tatiane Moraes Pestana Cortes; Vitor
Silva Duarte.
Technical Committee / Comitê Técnico – Consultant / Consultor

Achim Schreider; Alexis Bonneschky; Atom Mirakyan; Enrique Salazar; Felix
Knicker; Francois Botreau; Jörg Großmann; Julia Hoepp; Julio Sanchez; Kai-
Uwe Horn; Matthias Drosch; Oliver Heil; Ralf Bucher; Stefan Drenkard
(Lahmeyer International). Christian Merckx; François Promel; Françoise
Dassy; Guillaume Brunieau; Karim Karoui; Leonardo Rese; Loïc Maudoux;
Lucas Manso da Silva; Pieter Tielens; Rebecca Sinder; Rodolfo Bialecki; Stijn
Cole (Tractebel). Alessandro Soares; João Marcos; Juliana Pontes; Julio
Alberto; Lucas Okamura; Maria Luján Latorre; Mario Veiga Pereira; Martha
Rosa; Maynara Aredes; Rafael Kelman; Silvio Binato; Tainá Martins (PSR).
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Presentation
The study “Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Sources in Brazil's Energy Matrix”
was conceived within the scope of German Cooperation for Sustainable Development,
through Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), within the
“Energy Systems of the Future” Program. On the Brazilian side, the Program has as its
political coordinating partner the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), also counting on
the participation of other relevant institutions in the national electricity sector, with an
emphasis to the Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE) and the Operador Nacional
do Sistema Eletrico (ONS), technical implementing partners of this study.
The study was structured into five main products: Technical Regulation Studies (Grid
Codes); Energy Studies; Power System Studies; Methodology Studies and Technology
Studies, which, all together, have as an end result an analysis of the impacts of the
integration of large amounts of variable renewable energy sources in the National
Interconnected System (SIN). The study takes into account the analysis of energy and
power aspects and considers technological and cost trends, as well as a methodological
proposal and analytical tools for studies of this nature.
In order to carry out the study, an international bidding process was carried out, in which
the Consortium formed by the companies Lahmeyer International, Tractebel and PSR
was awarded to carry out the work.
One aspect that should be highlighted was the active participation of EPE and ONS
experts in the project execution, who, together with the contracted consultant, made
their knowledge available in the preparation of the products, as well as in the
participation of the various training sessions that were carried out during the work.
Objective
The study aims to analyse the impacts of the integration of large amounts of variable
renewable energy sources in the National Interconnected System and has the following
main objectives: i) to review the planning practices for the integration of renewable
energy sources in Brazil; ii) identify any gaps in current planning practices in Brazil with
respect to international practices; iii) to propose improvements in terms of
methodologies and analytical tools for the planning of the Brazilian electrical system;
and iv) carry out a case study using the methodologies and analytical tools proposed in
the study. Additionally, technical training sections carried out by the Consultant to
experts of EPE and ONS teams constituted an important part of this project.
Enjoy the reading.

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Apresentação
O estudo sobre a Integração de Fontes Renováveis Variáveis na Matriz Elétrica

Brasileira foi concebido no âmbito da Cooperação Alemã para o Desenvolvimento
Sustentável, por intermédio da Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
Zusammenarbeit – GIZ, dentro do Programa Sistemas de Energia do Futuro. Pelo lado
brasileiro, o Programa tem como parceiro coordenador político o Ministério de Minas e
Energia (MME), contando também com a participação de outras relevantes instituições
do setor elétrico nacional, destacando aqui a Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE)
e o Operador do Sistema Elétrico Nacional (ONS), parceiros executores técnicos deste
estudo.
O estudo foi estruturado em cinco produtos principais: Estudos Regulatórios (Códigos
de Rede); Estudos Energéticos; Estudos Elétricos; Estudos Metodológicos e Estudos
Tecnológicos, que, integrados entre si, tem como resultado final uma análise dos
impactos da integração de grandes quantidades de fontes renováveis de energia no
Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN), principalmente solar e eólica, avaliando aspectos
energéticos e elétricos e considerando tendências tecnológicas e de custos, bem como
uma proposta metodológica e de ferramentas analíticas para estudos desta natureza.
Para execução do estudo, foi realizada uma licitação internacional onde o Consórcio
formado pelas empresas Lahmeyer International, Tractebel e PSR sagrou-se vencedor
do certame para realização do trabalho.
Um aspecto que deve ser ressaltado foi a participação ativa dos colaboradores da EPE
e ONS, que, juntos com a consultoria contratada, disponibilizaram seu conhecimento
na elaboração dos produtos, bem como na participação das diversas capacitações que
foram realizadas durante o trabalho.
Objetivo
O estudo visa analisar os impactos da integração de grandes quantidades de fontes
renováveis de energia no Sistema Interligado Nacional e possui os seguintes objetivos
principais: i) revisar as práticas de planejamento para a integração de fontes renováveis
de energia no Brasil; ii) identificar eventuais lacunas das práticas de planejamento
atuais no Brasil com respeito às práticas internacionais; iii) propor melhorias em termos
de metodologias e ferramentas analíticas para o planejamento do sistema elétrico
brasileiro; e iv) realizar um estudo de caso aplicando as metodologias e ferramentas
analíticas propostas no estudo. Adicionalmente, ações de capacitação técnica das
equipes da EPE e ONS constituem parte importante deste projeto.
Boa leitura.
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Acknowledgements
The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), thanks the

Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE and the Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico
(ONS), the focal points of the respective institutions, Juarez Castrillon Lopes, Renata
Carvalho and Marcelo Prais, and all members of the working groups that during the
study made their time and knowledge available in order to achieve results of technical
excellence. Last but not least, we would like to thank the contracted Consultant
Consortium, Lahmeyer International, Tractebel and PSR, for the excellent work carried
out and for the way in which the negotiations have always been conducted. Special
thanks are due to the consultants Rafael Kelman (PSR) and Leonardo Rese (Tractebel),
for their availability, attention and technical quality provided to the work.
Many thanks to all.
Special thanks to the friend and colleague Juarez Castrillon Lopes
At the conclusion of this study, the project team could not fail to pay
a special tribute to our friend and colleague Juarez Castrillon Lopes,
who toasted us with his presence, joy, friendship and knowledge
during the execution of the study, but which unfortunately left us on
15 April 2020.
From the first conversations in the conception of this study, Juarez
has always shown himself as an idealizer and encourager of work.
The first ideas for this study were written by him in conversations
over coffee, on napkins, which were later refined until the elaboration
of the terms of reference detailing the content of the study. From the
beginning defending a greater interaction between system operation and planning, he
motivated the joint participation of EPE and ONS in all discussions about the study.
During its execution, Juarez always kept the work in the direction that the final objective
was reached, participating in all study working groups, always actively, enriching the
discussions with his high technical knowledge and creating a fraternal work environment
within the team. His always active participation was one of the factors that led to the
end of delivering a study of technical excellence. Juarez will definitely be missed by his
friends and colleagues who had the opportunity to share the life and work with him.
This acknowledgment does not intend to reflect everything that this electrical engineer,
promoter of wind energy and “Botafoguense”, contributed to the electricity sector in
these almost 45 years of dedication, but rather, to leave a simple and sincere tribute to
those who had the opportunity to enjoy his presence in the execution of this study.
Thank you very much from the entire team.

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Agradecimentos
A Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit – GIZ, agradece aos

titulares da Empresa de Pesquisa Energética e do Operador do Sistema Elétrico
Nacional, aos pontos focais das respectivas instituições, Juarez Castrillon Lopes,
Renata Carvalho e Marcelo Prais e a todos os membros dos grupos de trabalho que
durante a realização do estudo disponibilizaram seu tempo e conhecimento no sentido
de alcançarmos um estudo de excelência técnica. Por fim, não menos importante,
agradecemos ao Consórcio Consultor contratado, Lahmeyer International, Tractebel e
PSR, pelo excelente trabalho executado e pela forma em que as tratativas sempre
foram conduzidas. Agradecimento especial registramos aos consultores Rafael Kelman
(PSR) e Leonardo Rese (Tractebel), pela disponibilidade, atenção dispensada e
qualidade técnica fornecida ao trabalho.
Um muito obrigado a todos.
Agradecimento especial ao amigo e colega Juarez Castrillon Lopes
Na conclusão deste estudo, a equipe não poderia deixar de registrar

uma homenagem especial ao nosso amigo e colega Juarez
Castrillon Lopes, que nos brindou com sua presença, alegria,
amizade e conhecimento durante a execução do estudo, mas que
infelizmente nos deixou em 15 de abril de 2020.
Desde as primeiras conversas na concepção deste estudo, até
mesmo nas informais, Juarez sempre se mostrou como um
idealizador e incentivador do trabalho. As primeiras ideias foram por
ele escritas em conversas durante cafés, em guardanapos, que
depois foram sendo refinadas até a elaboração de um termo de referência detalhando
o conteúdo do estudo. Defendeu, desde do começo, uma maior interação entre
operação e planejamento, motivando a participação conjunta da EPE e do ONS em
todas as discussões.
Já durante sua execução, Juarez sempre manteve a condução dos trabalhos no
sentido que o objetivo final fosse alcançado, participando de todos os grupos de
trabalho do estudo sempre de forma ativa, enriquecendo as discussões com seu alto
conhecimento técnico e criando um ambiente fraterno de trabalho dentro da equipe.
Sua participação sempre ativa foi um dos fatores que propiciaram ao final entregar um
estudo de excelência técnica. Juarez sem dúvida vai deixar muitas saudades entre
seus amigos e colegas que tiveram a oportunidade de conviver e trabalhar com ele.
Este agradecimento não pretende refletir tudo que este engenheiro eletricista,
incentivador da energia eólica e Botafoguense contribuiu para o setor elétrico nestes
quase 45 anos de dedicação, mas sim, deixar uma simples e sincera homenagem
daqueles que tiveram a oportunidade de desfrutar de sua presença na execução deste
estudo.
Muito obrigado de toda a equipe.

Energy systems of the future:
Integrating variable renewable energy
sources in Brazil's energy matrix
Product 4:
Methodology Studies
Final Report
Gesellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbeit
Brazil
RESTRICTED
November 2019
20-26-00173
Final Report
Transaction 81212141
number:
Project Number 15.2126.9-001.00
Client Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
Country Brazil
Project title Energy systems of the future:

Services Consultancy Services
Consultant: Lahmeyer International GmbH

Friedberger Straße 173
61118 Bad Vilbel, Germany
Tractebel Engineering
Avenue Simon Bolivar 34-36,
1000 Brussels, Belgium
PSR Soluções e Consultoria em Energia Ltda

Praia de Botafogo 228 / 1701-A Botafogo
22250-145 - Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
Date June 2020
Revision Date Status Author Verified Approved

R. Kelman (PSR)
01 30. Jun 2020 Final L. Rese (TE) L. Rese (TE)
L. Rese (TE)
R. Kelman (PSR)
00 27. Nov 2019 Draft L. Rese (TE) L. Rese (TE)
L. Rese (TE)
i
© Lahmeyer International GmbH, 2020
The information contained in this document is proprietary, protected and solely for the use of the Client identi-
fied on the cover sheet for the purpose for which it has been prepared. Lahmeyer International GmbH and its
consortium partners Tractebel Engineering S.A. and PSR Soluções e Consultoria em Energia Ltda. undertake
no duty, nor accept any responsibility, to any third party who may wish to rely upon this document.
Save to the extent agreed otherwise with the Client all rights are reserved and no section or element of this
document may be removed from this document, reproduced, electronically stored or transmitted in any form
without written permission of Lahmeyer International GmbH and Tractebel Engineering S.A. and PSR
Soluções e Consultoria em Energia Ltda.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION 8
1.1 Background & context 8
2 CURRENT PLANNING METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS IN BRAZIL 11
2.1 Capacity expansion planning 11
2.2 Transmission expansion planning 11
2.3 Software tools currently used in the planning process 12
3 RECOMMENDED PLANNING METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS 13
3.1 Energy studies 13
3.2 Power system studies 40
4 POWER SYSTEM PLANNING DATABASE 79
5 REFERENCES 81
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LIST OF FIGURES
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Figure 3-1: Expansion planning process - overview 14
Figure 3-2: Optimal capacity expansion with peak supply reliability constraints 18
Figure 3-3: CORAL – Overview of the Monte Carlo sampling scheme 18
Figure 3-4: System representation with 7 clusters 20
Figure 3-5: Network representation 21
Figure 3-6: Process for downscaling reanalysis data 25
Figure 3-7: Investor’s perspective in the expansion planning problem 25
Figure 3-8: DG and DR forecasting methodology 27
Figure 3-9: Attributes of sources in the expansion planning 29
Figure 3-10: GIS-based data visualization platform (overview) 31
Figure 3-11: Solution robustness assessment 33
Figure 3-12: Methodology for power system studies (overview) 41
Figure 3-13: System inertia assessment - overview of the methodology 42
Figure 3-14: Synthetic inertia requirement (Brazilian grid code) 44
Figure 3-15: “Single node equivalent” representation of the system 47
Figure 3-16: PFC performance evaluation - overview of the methodology 48
Figure 3-17: Selection of relevant operating conditions - overview 48
Figure 3-18: Selection of "likely" operating conditions – methodology overview 50
Figure 3-19: Transmission expansion planning – energy studies 51
Figure 3-20: Static studies - overview of the methodology 52
Figure 3-21: Static studies - detailed methodology 53
Figure 3-22: Step 1: analysis of partial transmission expansion plan 56
Figure 3-23: Calculation of the voltage drop across a transmission line 57
Figure 3-24: Step 2: operation optimization and static security assessment 58
Figure 3-25: Step 3: short-circuit current analysis 65
Figure 3-26: Dynamic analysis - overview of the methodology 67
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Figure 3-27: DSA - general overview of the simulation events 70
Figure 3-28: Illustration of stress, incidents and criteria evaluation with SYSCAN 73
Figure 3-29: Illustration of the NTC methodology (secure simulation) 73
Figure 3-30: Unstable case, the system is more stressed than in the previous case and
instability is detected 74
Figure 3-31: The SYSCAN tool provides a table showing the stable and unstable cases. The
cases are accepted (A) or rejected (R) according to the pre-defined criteria 74
Figure 4-1: Coupling of energy and power system simulation models 79
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 3-1: Energy studies - summary of methodological recommendations 35
Table 3-2: Types of analyses performed in power system studies 74
Table 3-3: Power system studies - summary of methodological recommendations 76
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List of Acronyms
Acronym Definition
AC Alternating Current
ANEEL Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica
CAPEX Capital Expenditure
CEMIG “Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais”
CEPEL Electrical Energy Research Center (“Centro de Pesquisas de Energia Elétrica”)
CMP Communication Management Plan
COELBA “Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia”
COP United Nations Climate Change Conference
COPEL “Companhia Paranaense de Energia”
CRESESB Reference Center of Solar and Wind Energy Sérgio Brito
CSC Current Source Converter
DC Direct Current
DIN German Institute for Standardization
DNI Direct Normal Irradiance
DSM Demand-Side Management
EENS Expected Energy Not Supplied
EMT Electromagnetic Transient
EPE Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
ESS Energy Storage System
FACTS Flexible AC Transmission System
FRT Fault Ride Through
GHI Global Horizontal Irradiance
GIS Geographical Information System
GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
GPS Global Positioning System
G&T Generation and Transmission
HPP Hydro Power Plant
HV High Voltage
HVDC High-Voltage, Direct Current
HVRT High Voltage Ride Through
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
INMET “Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia”
LCC Line-Commutated Converter
LI Lahmeyer International
LILO Line-In-Line-Out
LOLP Loss of Load Probability
LVRT Low Voltage Ride Through
MME Ministry of Mines and Energy
MoM Minutes of Meeting
NDA Non-Disclosure Agreement
NTC Net Transfer Capacity
OLTC On-Load Tap Changer
ONS Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico
OPEX Operational Expenditure
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Acronym Definition
OPF Optimal Power Flow
O&M Operation and Maintenance
PDE Plano Decenal de Energia
PSP Pumped Storage Power Plant
PV Photovoltaic
QHSE Quality, Health, Safety and Environment
RES Renewable Energy Sources
RfP Request for Proposal
RMS Root Mean Square
SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition
SCOPF Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow
SCR Short-Circuit Ratio
SEMC-RS “Secretaria de Energia, Minas e Comunicações do Estado do Rio Grande do
Sul”
SIN Sistema Interligado Nacional (National Interconnected System)
SPOC Single Point of Contact
SPS Special Protection Scheme
SVC Static VAR Compensator
SWERA Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment
TE Tractebel Engineering
ToR Terms of Reference
TPP Thermal Power Plant
UFLS Under-Frequency Load Shedding
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
VRE Variable Renewable Energy
WAMPAC Wide-Area Measurement, Protection and Control
WS Workshop
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1 INTRODUCTION
The project “Energy systems of the future: Integrating variable renewable energy sources in Brazil's
energy matrix” aims at studying the impact of the integration renewable energy sources to the Brazilian
interconnected system (SIN) in both expansion and operation planning standpoints.
The general objective of the project, as specified in the ToR, is “to improve the prerequisites for systematic
integration of renewable energy and energy efficiency into the Brazilian Energy System”.
In this assignment, a pilot study on integrating renewable energies into the Brazilian energy system will be
performed. It will cover both operation and expansion planning aspects. More specifically, the objectives of
the project are:
· Perform an assessment of the current practices on RES integration in Brazil;
· Perform an assessment of the international practices on RES integration;
· Carry out a gap analysis between the international and the National practices in RES integration;
· Carry out an expansion planning exercise composed by energetic and power system analyses con-
sidering power system operation aspects;
· Propose upgrades to the current practices in Brazil based on the results of the gap analysis and the
detailed energy and power system studies.
In order to accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project is organized in eight (8) products, as fol-
lows:
· Product 0: Work Methodology
· Product 1: Technical Regulation Studies
· Product 2: Energy Studies
· Product 3: Power System Studies
· Product 4: Methodology Studies
· Product 5: Technology Studies
· Product 6: Final Report
· Product 7: Workshops
This report comprises the Product 4 of the project with recommendations of methodologies for the expan-
sion and operation planning of the Brazilian interconnected power system with respect to current practices
of EPE and ONS. These recommendations may have been used in the current project, especially for the
preparation of products 2 and 3 (energy and electricity planning exercises) or may be aimed at future en-
hancements.
1.1 Background & context

The Brazilian electrical power system has a total installed capacity of about 160,000 MW. The generation
mix is predominantly hydro, complemented by nuclear and conventional thermal power plants, biomass,
wind and solar PV. Hydroelectric power plants (mix of both run-of-river and with reservoir) correspond to
about 65% of the installed capacity. The total energy storage capacity of the existing hydro power plants is
about 290 GW-avg (about 70% of the storage capacity is located in the South-East/Centre-West regions).
The total wind and solar PV installed capacity are of about 12,800 MW and 1,275 MW, respectively.
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The National Interconnected System (SIN) is very large and complex, comprising more than 130,000 km of
HV and UHV transmission lines (above 230 kV). HVDC links are also existing, the most important are the
HVDC lines which connected the hydropower plants Itaipu (14,000 MW), Santo Antonio and Jirau (installed
capacity of 3,568 MW and 3,150 MW respectively) in the Madeira river and two additional HVDC links con-
necting the hydropower plant of Belo Monte (11,233 MW). Brazil is asynchronously interconnected to the
power systems of Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. Brazil is synchronously interconnected to the power
system of Venezuela, both operating with the nominal frequency of 60 Hz. New interconnections with the
neighbour countries Bolivia, Guyana and Peru, are under study, in the same way as increasing the power
exchanges through the existing interconnections.
Wind and solar PV generation faced a fast development growth in the last years in Brazil. This fast growth
in VRE integration, associated with the increasing constraints for the construction of new hydro power plants
with reservoir and large transmission infrastructure, are raising concerns from the power system expansion
and operation planning points of view. It is consensus among the Brazilian electricity sector experts that the
national power system is going through a transition phase towards a generation matrix less dependent on
hydro generation.
In addition to the aforementioned, Brazil's participation in COP 21 was highlighted internationally for its am-
bitious commitments to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), through
the so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). In other to achieve the goal of reducing
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 43% below 2005 levels in 2030, the Brazilian energy sector must fulfil
the following targets:
· Reach an estimated 45% share of renewable energy in the energy mix by 2030, including:
o Expand the use of renewable sources - besides hydro power - in the total energy matrix,
from 28% to 33% share by 2030;
o Expand the domestic use of non-fossil energy sources, increasing the share of renewable
energy, as well as hydro power, in the supply of electrical energy to at least 23% by 2030,
considering a greater share of wind, biomass and solar sources.
· Reach 10% efficiency gains in the electricity sector by 2030.
· Increase the share of sustainable bioenergy in the Brazilian energy matrix to about 18% by 2030,
expanding consumption of biofuels, increasing the supply of ethanol, also through the increase of
the share of advanced biofuels (second generation), and increasing the share of biodiesel in diesel
fuel mixture.
The facts mentioned above pose several challenges to the planning and operation of the Brazilian intercon-
nected power system in this future configuration. It will require an evolution of the current expansion and
operation planning practices.
The present assignment aims at studying the impact of the integration renewable energy sources to the SIN
system in both expansion and operation planning standpoints.
In order to cope with these challenges, the GIZ is procuring a project for addressing the various aspects
affecting the integration of VRE in the SIN. The general objective of this assignment is to perform a pilot
study on integrating renewable energies into the Brazilian energy system. This study must cover both oper-
ation and expansion planning aspects.
According to the understanding of the Consultant, the objectives of the project are the following:
· Perform an assessment of the current practices on VRE integration in Brazil;
· Perform an assessment of the international practices on VRE integration;
· Carry out a gap analysis between the international and the National practices in VRE integration;
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· Carry out an expansion planning exercise composed by energetic and power system analyses con-
sidering power system operation aspects;
· Propose upgrades to the current practices in Brazil based on the results of the gap analysis and the
detailed energy and power system studies.
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2 CURRENT PLANNING METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS IN

BRAZIL
2.1 Capacity expansion planning1

EPE has developed MDI to support the elaboration of long-term planning studies, such as the Ten-Year
Plan. MDI minimizes the expected value of the investment and operating costs over the planning period.
The power system includes existing plants, committed future projects and candidate projects.
MDI represents interconnected subsystems with energy transfers limited by capacities that can also be ex-
panded after investments.
Plants are represented individually. Uncertainties on future hydrology and renewable energy production are
represented by scenarios with informed probabilities. Hydropower plants are modelled through scenarios of
energy production and available capacity for each month of the study horizon. Such scenarios are produced
with a simulation model for individualized plants called SUISHI, following an execution of energy-equivalent
model NEWAVE for the configuration of interest. The energy consumption is iteratively modified in NEWAVE
until the expected value of the annual marginal cost of each system is equal to the long-run expansion
marginal cost which is defined exogenously.
Power plants must supply both energy consumption requirements – represented by discrete blocks - and
peak demand. A power reserve constraint can be added to MDI in the form of "total available capacity must
be x% greater than the maximum instantaneous demand". In this constraint, available hydro capacity varies
by month and is hydrologically conditioned to available energy, including the inflexible production related to
minimum environmental flows.
Existing plants and candidate projects for renewable production sources are represented through historical
production, that is, with monthly seasonality in energy production and with variation between levels also
based on real production. Storage technologies can be modelled in MDI through energy transfers between
load levels.
2.2 Transmission expansion planning

The transmission planning activities carried out by the Energy Transmission Superintendence - STE are
carried out, on a regional basis, by the EPE Regional Transmission Study Groups (GET) with the collabora-
tion of the transmission and distribution concessionaires in their area of operation.
The expansion of the main transmission grid (installations with a voltage equal to or greater than 230 kV) is
established in such a way as to allow market stakeholders to have free access to the grid, enabling an
environment for competition in the generation and commercialization of energy in the interconnected system.
In addition to serving the market, the transmission system plays an important role in interconnecting the
electricity subsystems, allowing the equalization of energy prices by minimizing bottlenecks between sub-
systems, enabling an optimized dispatch of the generation fleet.
The development of transmission expansion studies over the ten-year horizon is based on projections of
electric load and the generation reference expansion plan, using the current planning criteria.
The initial evaluation of the electrical network is carried out by analysing the system steady-state perfor-
mance at the various load levels and generation dispatch scenarios, through load flow simulations in
normal condition and in non-simultaneous contingency of the network elements.
1
Based on technical paper by Saulo R. Silva; Dan A. Gandelman and Jorge Trinkenreich presented at XXV SNTPEE
conference (November 2019).
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The diagnosis thus elaborated for the electrical network leads to a set of complementary transmission stud-
ies, which feed into the planning process, including, among others:
· Analysis of the dynamic performance of the interconnected system and determination of the power
exchange limits in the interconnections;
· Evaluation of the short-circuit current levels in the substations over the ten-year period, in order
to characterize the overcoming of the loading limits of the equipment and its influence in the defini-
tion of the topology of the transmission alternatives;
· Evolution of tariffs for the use of the transmission system (TUST);
· Specific studies on the integration of more relevant generation projects or loads at specific points
in the system.
These studies result in the “R1 - Technical-Economic and Socio-Environmental Viability” reports. Additional
studies are also needed to design and specify the works to be included by the MME in the transmission
bidding program. These studies make up the reports (R2 to R5), namely: (i) R2 - Details of the Reference
Alternative.; (ii) R3 - Definition of the Social and Environmental Design and Characterization Directive; (iii)
R4 - Characterization of the Existing Network (iv) R5 - Land Costs.
Such studies particularly focus on the works to be infrastructure in the first six years of the ten-year period.
2.3 Software tools currently used in the planning process

The following tools are used for the energy studies withing the PDE expansion planning process:
· MDI: model developed inhouse by EPE and used for expansion planning.
· NEWAVE: for preparation of hydro production based on hydrologic scenarios that result from a run
that finishes when expected values of marginal costs are equal to informed long-term marginal cost
of expansion. Then SUISHI is used to provide values per plant (whereas in NEWAVE the dimension
is hydro energy-equivalent of each subsystem). Other tools included preparation of demand fore-
cast.
· The models SDDP/OPTGEN developed by PSR were recently procured by EPE for use in different
studies.
The following tools are used for the power system studies withing the PDE expansion planning process2:
· ANAREDE/FLUPOT: load flow, contingency and optimal power flow analyses.
· ANAFAS: short-circuit current computation.
· ANATEM: dynamic simulations (electromechanical transients).
· PACDYN: small-signal stability analysis
2
All tools are developed by CEPEL.
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3 RECOMMENDED PLANNING METHODOLOGIES AND

TOOLS
In this project, an integrated planning approach is proposed in which energy and power system studies are
carried out as part of a unified expansion planning strategy. The objective of this integration is to take into
account as accurate as possible the operation of the system in the system expansion planning phase.
This chapter presents the recommendations derived from the analyses performed in Products 2 and 3 in
terms of system planning methodologies and tools. The chapter is divided in two parts, as follows:
· Part 1: Energy Studies
· Part 2: Power System Studies
3.1 Energy studies

The objective of this report is to consolidate recommendations on procedures, state-of-the-art methodologies
and computational tools gathered from the development of Product 2 (energy planning studies) and Product
3 (electrical studies) which targeted a high penetration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources, such
as wind and solar PV, in the Brazilian power matrix. The main drivers and motives for this study are:
· Brazil has a very large potential for VRE sources;
· The cost of these sources has been falling steeply and VRE is already economically competitive;
· The country’s large and diversified hydro storage capacity and a robust transmission network sup-
port the penetration of VREs whose possibilities/limitations need to be understood energy wise
(Product 2) and in terms of specific electrical studies (Product 3) for a portfolio of generation and
transmission assets determined to meet load growth assumptions based on linearized power flow
models;
· Because VRE are mostly non-dispatchable and they are in a wide range of sites, the distribution of
power flows in the high-voltage grid may differ from the current one. Thus, the departing point or
assumption is that it is necessary to consider jointly generation, transmission assets. As for the time
steps, it is also a departing point to consider hourly time steps with respect to the current practice of
using a discrete load duration curves in the planning and operational studies;
· The substantial insertion of VRE sources may require more detailed probabilistic modelling of gen-
eration reserve requirements based on the variability of the sources and the capacity to forecast it.
This is one of the methodological aspects that will be discussed in this report, as it contrasts with
the current practice which determines reserves as a fraction of the actual wind power production.
It is useful to compare this experience, presented with the help of Figure 3-1, with current practices of EPE
and ONS in order to identify when there is an opportunity for improvement. As Figure 3-1 shows, a compre-
hensive generation and transmission planning/operations study modelling was utilized in the case study.
A distant horizon was selected with the purpose of strengthening the impacts of VRE penetration to the
operation of the system with respect to current practices, thus providing useful insights to the system expan-
sion planning. Figure 3-1 also includes procedures not used in Product 2 or Product 3, but that are included
as suggestions for methodological improvements that will be discussed in this report.
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Figure 3-1: Expansion planning process - overview
· OPTGEN is a least-cost expansion plan for generation and interconnections projects of a multi-
regional power system. It represents details of the system. It is used both by planners in environ-
ments with centralized planning and by regulators and investors in competitive environments.
· SDDP is a dispatch model used for short, medium- and long-term operation studies. The model
calculates the least-cost stochastic operating policy of a power system, considering the transmission
network, various sources of uncertainties, details of the conventional and variable renewable gen-
erators, storage and security-related constraints.
· TSL produces VRE candidates as well as multivariate scenarios of VRE electricity production to be
used by SDDP/OPTGEN as part of the planning process.
· OPTNET is a computational tool for determining the least-cost transmission network reinforcements
re-quired to ensure the supply of the forecasted load along the study horizon, taking into account
the N-1 security criterion (adequate supply under any single circuit outage). An alternative objective
function is to minimize the sum of investment costs plus the cost of expected unserved energy due
to circuit outages (reliability worth criterion). It is also possible to represent several generation dis-
patch scenarios for each load scenario (due, for example, to the existence of renewable sources
such as hydropower and wind).
· HERA is a computational model developed by PSR to study the hydropower potential of river basins,
considering project economic feasibility, as well as social and environmental impacts. The objective
of this tool is to contribute with the stakeholder decision process and accommodate conflicting inter-
ests, pro and against the construction of dams, in a pursuit of striking a balance between energy
production with conservation.
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· CORAL evaluates load supply reliability considering generation and transmission outages, VRE
variability, loss of hydro peaking capacity due to reservoir depletion and demand variability. Several
reliability indices can be calculated, such as LOLP, EENS and CVaR of EENS at either system or
busbar level. Indices are calculated based on a Monte-Carlo sampling scheme. Feasibility con-
straints can be passed on to OptGen as part of the expansion planning process.
· OPTFOLIO is a decision support tool for energy portfolio management, including physical assets,
such as generating plants and financial assets, such as bilateral contracts and derivative instru-
ments. The objective is to maximize the present value of the probabilistic cashflow of a company
considering risk constraints. Many sources of costs and revenues are considered by Optfolio when
building the net cashflow.
The next sub-section summarizes the main lessons learned from the application of most of the components
of this framework in Product 2.
3.1.1 Candidate projects

The use of candidate locations from wind and solar projects based on the projects that have registered for
participation in the electricity auctions, followed by an adjustment of the MERRA2 hourly data (to reproduce
the capacity factor of existing plants with known data) was considered effective in the development of a
realistic set of VRE candidate projects.
The sensitivity case that relaxed the cap of maximum wind power capacity in a wind cluster in the South
region, with a strong impact in the results – demonstrated the importance of a criteria to assess the feasible
capacity of projects that can be selected in each region.
Regarding the preparation of new hydropower projects - in addition to the projects already included in the
PDE 2026, please refer to Subsection 3.1.5.2.
For candidate projects with technologies expected to greatly evolve in terms of efficiency and cost in the
next years, it is important for EPE to monitor the market and build an internal view of the expected trends
that is incorporated in the planning.
The portfolio selection of Product 2 was based solely on CAPEX and OPEX costs. It did not include some
factors that impact the relative competitiveness of the sources, such as the discount of transmission tariffs
that incentivizes VRE sources, special financial conditions for some sources in some locations, the existence
of subsidies and others. As the Optgen model is directly seeking a least cost solution that meets energy
consumption, peak demand with reliability (firm capacity constraint) and operating re-serves for those
sources that can provide this service, the majority of attributes listed in items 1, 2 and 3 is properly valued
by the model. The only exception is related to the reactive support or services related to inertia for frequency
control, which have a smaller value for each source (please refer to Product 3 of this project for further details
on these topics).
Additionally, it should be noted that the procedure adopted in determining the project portfolio of Product 2
disregards regulations and market conditions that investors consider when evaluating the financial viability
of their projects. For instance: (1) tax benefits for sources that are eligible for “presumed profit regime” in-
stead of the real profit, as presented in the balance sheets; (2) special loans for some technologies and in
some regions of Brazil; (3) 50% discounts of transmission tariffs for renewable plants; (4) a large “postage
stamp” term on transmission tariffs which tend to favour large located in remote areas that re-quire more
transmission investments, and so on. As mentioned, the decision whether to invest in a source was based
entirely on investment and operative costs.
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3.1.2 Renewables and inflow scenarios

The joint modelling of renewable and inflow scenarios has allowed the representation of multiple time scales
(monthly in the case of inflows and hourly for VRE) and of the spatial correlation among renewables in
different regions. This latter aspect is important because of the “portfolio effect”, i.e. the total variability of
several groups VREs may be reduced if their spatial correlation is small. It is interesting to observe that the
portfolio effect for hydro plants was one of the reasons for the historical development of hydro in eleven
major basins across the country. In other words, a well-proven planning scheme can be extended to the
planning of VREs. The VRE scenarios were also fundamental for the definition of probabilistic reserve gen-
eration criteria for VREs used in the expansion planning study described next.
The Bayesian Network used for the generation of correlated scenarios of wind and solar power is quite
general and may be utilized even if there are no correlations. The graph of associated nodes where there
are correlations will in this case, of course, be simpler, unless, of course, there is concern that spurious
correlations may result from the sample of data. This concern was manifested throughout the study as
MERRA-2 reanalysis data showed statistically representative correlations with water inflows to hydro power
plants. Such correlations were interpreted with large scepticism by the technical teams of EPE given that
the reasons for these correlations from the climate standpoint are unknown. A general recommendation
would be to investigate if these correlations are in fact spurious from a climate science stand-point. We have
limited ourselves in this project to the statistical approach used in the Bayesian networks.
3.1.3 Expansion planning study

The first modelling issue in the expansion planning study was the joint representation of generation and
electricity exchange reinforcements between regions. Due to the very large size of Brazil’s HV network, the
optimal generation-transmission plan was determined using a seven-region representation. The objective is
to include in the capacity expansion planning model an indicative cost for reinforcing energy exchanges
between regions of the country. For instance, a solar PV project in the Northeast (with larger plant factor) to
supply a load in the Southeast will only be preferable to a solar PV project in the Southeast (with lower plant
factor) if its construction cost plus the cost of increasing the capacity of the regional exchange is cheaper
that the construction cost of the Solar PV plant in the Southeast.
In conceptual terms, this was equivalent to ignoring the limits of transmission lines inside each region; only
the regional tie-lines, plus their reinforcement options, were represented. A discussion about the number of
regions is made in sub-section 3.1.4.3.
The second modelling issue was the representation of distributed generation (DG) at the distribution level.
This was done through the creation of additional nodes for each distribution company. Due to lack of more
detailed information about DG insertion in Brazil, EPE’s forecasts of DG capacity penetration were used as
a fixed input data. In the future, this modelling could be revisited, possibly by an iterative scheme in which
the system expansion is carried out for a given hypothesis of DG penetration. This DG insertion hypothesis
is then revised with basis on the energy cost component for tariffs in each distribution company; and the
system expansion is re-run with the revised DG insertion. A sketch of a methodology is proposed in sub-
section 3.1.5.8.
3.1.4 Main issues

3.1.4.1 Maximum VRE capacity per region
The portfolio of new generation projects selected by the Optgen planning model was considerably impacted
when the model was executed considering an unlimited amount of wind capacity in the South region3. The
result increased from 41.7 GW of the reference case to 62.8 GW, with a concentration of capacity in the
3
Case C of Sensitivity 4 (Chapter 7 of P2)
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wind cluster of the South region with highest capacity factor. This result suggests a possible improvement
of the process used in the study for the preparation of candidate wind power pro-jects. This lesson is also
valid for solar projects by analogy.
Given the relatively coarse spatial resolution of the MERRA2 data (each cell has 65 x 50 km) the time series
of wind data should be as much as possible, based on available information, disaggregated into smaller
clusters, adding variability to them.
To illustrate this point, the model may select a large amount of wind capacity in a certain cluster with a
capacity factor of 50% and none in another cluster with a slightly smaller capacity factor, such as 48%. If the
variability inside each cluster is considered, as in real life, and continuing with the example, the capacity
factor of the first cluster may range from 45% to 55% (50% is the mean), while the capacity factor of second
cluster may range from 43% to 53% (48% is the mean). As this example shows, in such circumstances
Optgen could select some of the best areas of the second cluster, thus distributing capacity in the clusters.
This result shows it is necessary to define other criteria to limit the capacity of candidate projects that can
be selected in each region and to break up the larger clusters into smaller ones, based on the production of
existing parks or wind measurements of specific projects that developers must deliver, as it is a pre-requisite
to participate in the energy auctions. This process of splitting up wind clusters into smaller areas would
increase the number of candidate projects to be considered by the optimization model, thus in-creasing the
computational effort. A balance between the number of candidate projects and CPU will need to be made.
3.1.4.2 Composite reliability assessment in the expansion planning

Hydro-dominated countries such as Brazil were historically energy-constrained, that is, supply shortages
resulted from lack of water in the reservoirs and low inflows, and the consequences were energy rationings
that could last several months. In contrast, thermal-dominated countries such as the UK were capacity-
constrained, with supply interruptions resulting from the combination of equipment outages and peak de-
mand and, therefore, lasting hours.
Renewables and, in the case of hydro countries, gas-fired generation, have changed this situation; many
countries are now both energy and peak-constrained. This means that it is necessary to have two supply
reliability criteria, related to energy and peak shortages, respectively.
The energy reliability criterion is usually enforced implicitly through the penalties for energy rationing in the
system operation module such that “total firm energy” is higher than total annual energy consumption. The
peak reliability criterion can also be ensured through a similar “total firm peak capacity ≤ annual peak load”
constraint. Alternatively, one can have an explicit representation of the supply reliability criterion, for ex-
ample, “expected energy not supplied (EENS) ≤ 1% of the market”.
The EENS is calculated by Monte-Carlo simulation, where equipment outages, renewable production and
load levels are sampled from their respective joint probability distributions. In this case, the objective is to
minimize the sum of investment and expected operation costs, subject to the above peak supply reliability
constraint. As the following figure shows, the solution technique remains Benders decomposition, now with
an additional supply reliability evaluation module, CORAL. Although CORAL (or an equivalent model) was
not used in exercise it is advisable that a reliability module is included in the planning analysis, as seen.
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Figure 3-2: Optimal capacity expansion with peak supply reliability constraints
Figure 3-2 indicates that CORAL receives the trial expansion plan X and returns a linear constraint known
as a feasibility cut. The feasibility cut has the same structure as the optimality cut. It contains the derivatives
of EENS with respective to changes in the capacity of each candidate equipment in the trial plan vector
. For each trial plan produced by the investment module, the operating module and a supply reliability
module are executed. This reliability module (CORAL model), calculates the supply reliability index, for ex-
ample, the EENS, considering the generation and transmission equipment failures.
CORAL evaluates load supply reliability considering generation and transmission outages, VRE variability,
loss of hydro peaking capacity due to reservoir depletion and demand variability. Several supply reliability
indices can be calculated, such as LOLP, EENS and CVaR of EENS (at system and busbar level). Those
indices are calculated with a Monte-Carlo sampling scheme, illustrated below for a system with three regions.
Figure 3-3: CORAL – Overview of the Monte Carlo sampling scheme
The two recommendations here are: (1) to incorporate a G-T reliability module as part of the expansion
process, for instance through feasibility cuts following Benders decomposition; (2) to assure that appropriate
data are collected for the generation plants and transmission lines, separating maintenance scheduled
(which should be informed, see next) from forced outages (which should be considered by the reliability
module).
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3.1.4.2.1 Maintenance schedule

The expansion planning study should differentiate forced outages from scheduled maintenance programs.
This is also important in the electrical studies, because evaluated power flow scenarios must include nominal
capacity of the units when they are available instead of a capacity de-rated by an average unavailability
factor that, on average, captures the effect of maintenance schedules and outages.
As periods of high net demand (i.e. demand minus non-dispatchable generation) are expected to change in
the long-term due to a higher penetration of VRE sources with seasonal behaviour. As consequence, the
maintenance schedule of dispatchable plants – currently driven by the seasonality of hydrology - will proba-
bly also change in the long-term.
For this reason, it will be necessary to use a maintenance schedule optimization model. In general, the
objective function of this type of mode is to maximize the Reserve Margin, given by the difference between
the Available Capacity and the net demand, which is a random variable because of the VRE production.
PSR has developed a model that maximizes a convex combination of the Expected Value (EV) of the Re-
serve Margin (RM) and the Conditioned Value at Risk (CVaR) of the Reserve Margin (RM) associated with
unfavourable scenarios, as follows:
= (1 − ) [ ]+ [ ]
where:
· : average of the % worst scenarios. VaR (Value at Risk) is the reserve margin associated
with the quantile . The is the average of the cases worse than or equal to the VaR.
· : risk aversion factor is defined as the weight of the worst-case scenarios in the objective function.
For example, if λ=0.3, the model will attribute a 70% weight to the average reserve margin and 30%
to the conditioned value at risk value related to the unfavourable cases.
As constraints, the plants are compulsory under maintenance for a period. The model does not decide if but
when plants are in maintenance.
The maintenance schedule of all dispatchable plants in the system is decided before sampling for outages
by a reliability model such as CORAL. It is interesting to mention that this model may be run either after an
expansion plan has been determined (to provide sensible maintenance schedules for all plants in prepara-
tion for detailed operation planning) or as part of the Benders decomposition scheme in the expansion plan-
ning problem. Thus, for each trial plan produced by the investment module, the maintenance schedule could
be determined by the model before carrying out the production costing simulation and reliability evaluations.
3.1.4.3 Number of subsystems

The minimum number of network areas that should be used in planning models to adequately represent
network congestions is important. The departing point is the examination of the nodal marginal costs of the
power system when the full (high voltage) transmission system is considered. The reason for using nodal
marginal costs is straightforward: if all values are the same, means there are no network bottlenecks in the
network, and a single region would be adequate. If some buses have similar marginal costs, though different
from others, then clusters of buses in geographical locations should be defined.
A possible approach is to use the “community identification algorithm”, developed by Newman and Girvan4.
If each circuit has a weight that is given by the absolute difference between the marginal cost of its associated
buses, this method computes an “edge betweenness score”5 and then gradually removes the circuits with
4
https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0308217
5
https://www.pnas.org/content/99/12/7821
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highest score. In the end, the process returns a dendrogram of the network, where the leaves are the indi-
vidual buses, and the root represents the entire network. The input data to run this algorithm is the number
of regions of interest.
An optimum operating policy would be computed for the entire system. Then a simulation with a small num-
ber of regions would be made and compared with the solution of the full network problem. The difference in
operating costs would be used in this comparison (known in Brazil as system sector charges, or ESS in
Portuguese). The number of regions would be determined to reduce the ESS to a tolerable amount. Figure
3-4 illustrates the result for a case with seven clusters.
Figure 3-4: System representation with 7 clusters
The general recommendation is to evaluate the adequate number of regions (subsystems) to be included in
the expansion planning model. The number of regions would be defined so that the difference in marginal
costs between the simulation of the full network model and the representation by subsystem is within a pre-
defined limit. To move from the use of the current approach to a more systematic one suggested here, EPE
could evaluate the impact of the number of subsystems to the selection of the generation portfolio in its
planning studies. The disadvantage, of course, is that the process requires further modelling, including the
preparation of more candidate energy exchanges, with respective investment costs.
3.1.4.4 Network representation

A concept for expansion planning studies with transmission network constraints with i=1,2,…I buses and
m=1,2,…M circuits is presented. The objective is to improve current representation, based solely on power
exchanges between regions (thus disregarding altogether Kirchhoff’s second law) to an improved, yet linear
representation that could, for instance, be directly included in EPE’s MDI model or PSR’s Optgen model
(note: the energy study of Product 4 was also based on simplified regional exchange flow limits constraints),
Let s be a “scenario” (e.g. month, hydrological year and load block) of this study. The interest is for a good
aggregate representation of the transmission network which captures the flow limits j=1,2…,J be-tween the
k=1,2,…,K regions or clusters (as defined above, for example). It is also assumed no flow restrictions exist
within each region. Naturally I >> K and M >> J.
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Figure 3-5: Network representation
Results from a study with the full transmission network include:

· , : load of bus i, scenario s
· , : total generation of bus i, scenario s
· , : power flow in circuit m, scenario s
Known values that result from the processing of the previous data:
· , =∑: () , "k, "s where ( ) is the region of bus i
· , =∑: () , "k, "s
· =∑ : ( ) , "k, "s where ( ) is the equivalent interchange of circuit m
The following optimization problem is solved where the decision variables are , (interregional flow sensi-
tivity coefficient j for injection change in cluster k) and , (the inter-regional flow j for scenario s).
, − ,
subject to:
, = ∑ ∈ ( ) , , − ,
"j, "s
∑ ∑ ∈ ( ) , −∑ ∈ ( ) , + , − , =0 "k
Where D( ) and O( ) are, respectively, the cluster of destination and origin of flow k. The choice of scenarios
from the available set (all months, hydrological years and load blocks) should include cases with marginal
cost differences between regions.
3.1.4.5 Peak load supply

EPE currently uses a criterion to supply the peak demand based on an available capacity determined per
source. For thermal plants, for example, unavailability rates are used. For hydropower plants a more elabo-
rate method is used, based on energy studies made with historic flows that are able to determine the effect
of reservoir depletion in the dry scenarios to the capacity. The method for hydro also considers the monthly
production impact (and constraints for maintaining minimum flows) when determining the maximum available
capacity to supply the peak demand. Finally, assumptions are made for non-dispatchable sources, such as
wind and solar power. The available capacity to supply the peak demand is then determined based on a
simple LP model that considers the individual values for all projects while allowing for power transfers be-
tween the regions.
As mentioned, we propose an alternative approach that incorporates feasibility cuts in the capacity expan-
sion model that are produced by a supply reliability evaluation module such as CORAL. This model is usually
based on Monte Carlo sampling of equipment outages, followed by an optimal power flow assessment of
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operating constraint violations, generation redispatch to alleviate those violations and – if not possible – load
curtailment.
In large systems such as Brazil, this scheme may be computationally prohibitive. If so, the use of other types
of constraints as a proxy to the supply reliability target - such as the present approach used by EPE - should
be maintained with minor improvements. One such improvement is the use of a capacity reserve requirement
for the peak hours, as adopted in Mexico. It defines as “critical hours” 100 hours with smallest reserve (avail-
able capacity minus demand) of the previous year, thus based on actual operative data. One attractive
characteristic of the Mexican scheme is that it adapts automatically to the generation pattern of renewables
being constructed. For example, if the traditional peak load is at night, the construction of wind power that
produces more at night, as in the Bahia region, would increase the reserve in those hours, transferring the
critical supply hours to, for example, the mid-afternoon (due to air conditioning). Conversely, the construction
of solar plants would alleviate this peak period; etc.
3.1.5 Additional issues

3.1.5.1 Spinning reserve sizing and allocation
Consultants and specialists from ONS discussed about criteria to be considered for the Automatic Genera-
tion Control (AGC) in the future. Considering both the list of admissible projects that can provide secondary
reserves and the maximum allocation per project in planning purposes.
Currently (2018), 23 hydro plants participate in the AGC. As demand is expected to grow, as well as VRE
sources, the requirements for secondary reserves increases. The case study, for example, indicated that 45
plants (including natural gas plants) would participate in the final configuration. The criteria for participation
in the AGC need to be further investigated as well as the allocation of reserves among units. The following
improvements could be incorporated as part of the process:
· Participation in the provision of reserves of a control area of projects located outside this area if an
idle capacity is left in the transmission connecting the control area to external areas where the pro-
jects are located. This possibility was not investigated in the study as we considered all reserves
were provided “locally”.
· Determination of the maximum allocated reserve per plant, considering their availability. For the
sake of the study we considered 40% of the capacity of the plant.
· Considerations regarding large run-of-river plants that have a strong seasonal component, such as
Belo Monte, Jirau or Santo Antonio. What to consider in terms of capacity for the provision of re-
serves, considering the dry period, one only 1-2 units can produce on a continuous basis?
· Include a representation of the available hydro capacity as a function of storage for the determination
of the available capacity, thus possible allocated reserves.
3.1.5.2 Hydro constraints in the capacity expansion planning

The optimization model combines the decisions to build new plants with the operation of the existing or
selected new hydro projects. For the sake of hydro operation, we considered the following constraints: min-
imum and maximum operational levels of the reservoir, minimum total water outflow downstream of the plant
(if applicable), irrigation (if applicable) and a ramp for power increase (or decrease) of 4h from minimum to
maximum capacity or vice-versa for plants with 1000 MW or more.
For run-of-river plants, especially in the case of Belo Monte (11 GW), and the dams in the Madeira (more
than 8 GW) it is crucial to understand the available capacity for peaking and reserves for the different times
of the year. What capacity can be allocated to Belo Monte for primary and secondary reserves during the
driest month, when a single unit may be dispatched out of twenty available?
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A closer examination of the set of constraints in place for each river basin where the hydro plants are located
should be considered to promote an adequate operation of the reservoirs, including multiple uses of water,
such as navigation, urban use and irrigation. If issues of water resources that may limit the reservoir opera-
tion are ignored, the excessive flexibility will facilitate system expansion as alternative sources of flexibility
(e.g. open cycle natural gas plants) may be erroneously less required by the model. On the other extreme,
a simple rule that constraints operation may complicate matters.
3.1.5.3 Synthetic demand profiles and the effect of temperature

The solution method of OptGen to select the portfolio of projects jointly considers hourly electricity demands
(based on ONS 2015 demand profile, which was applied in a larger energy consumption basis, more spe-
cifically 2x the verified in 2017). Scenarios of water inflows to hydropower plants and VRE production (wind
and solar PV) were also modelled.
These multi-dimensional scenarios are prepared for each season (in Product 2 we divided the year into
quarters) and by type of day (we used weekdays and weekends) to capture seasonal and intra-day effects
(e.g. centralized and distributed solar PV production, higher wind power production at night time and others).
The problem objective function aggregates the operating decisions of these daily schedules by attributing a
weight in proportional to the duration of each demand profile such that the entire year (8,760 hours) is cov-
ered. As each scenario is given a probability, it is possible to use a smaller sample to approximate the entire
distribution probability. In this way, extreme scenarios (i.e. very dry or wet) may be given a small probability,
whereas scenarios that reflect more frequent situations (“mean scenarios”) are given a higher probability.
The same framework can be directly used if one is interested in evaluating different demand profiles for the
same yearly energy consumption considering uncertainties such as:
· Short-term fluctuations due, for example, temperature; these are handled by a stochastic model for
integrated generation of inflows, renewable production and load scenarios (for example, the TSL
software used in this study)
· Effect of demand response to tariffs and construction of distributed generation – the modelling tech-
niques described in 3.8 could be applied in this case
· Structural changes in the demand profile due, for example, changes in the income distribution and/or
introduction of new technologies and/or energy efficiency. The suggestion in this case is to develop
a “bottom up” representation of the demand profile for each type of consumer, like the R&D project
prepared by Fraunhofer, PUC, Tendencias and PSR for ENEVA, finalized in 2016.
For example, changes in demand profile could be related to an increased use of air conditioning (as in the
recent 10 years) or by changes in consumer behaviour caused by new tariff structures, such as if hourly
electricity rates are implemented.
In the case of Demand Response (DR) mechanisms, the net effect should also be considered, for in-stance,
by an external module that applies DR according hourly information that will force a modification of demand
profile, such as the electricity tariff or the price of electricity in the wholesale market (depending on the type
of consumer). A simulation of the dynamic behaviour of the consumers would be made and the net effect of
hourly load would be fed back to the planning models in an iterative way.
Regardless of the cause for adding uncertainty on the hourly demand of each season and day type, the
required change with respect to current practice is that these data, data, which are currently being repeated
for all scenarios of inflows and VRE, also vary for each scenario. An appealing aspect of this approach is
that it allows sophisticated multi-dimensional scenario generation to reproduce the structure VRE, hydrology
and demand. For instance, demand data from a distribution company revealed that an increase in demand
for electricity when temperature rises above a certain level. The reason is that more people start turning on
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their air conditioning appliances. If the conditioned probability of VRE is also impacted by this event of tem-
perature increase (for instance, if wind speeds tends to reduce or if the higher temperature decreases effi-
ciency of solar PV projects) the combined effect for the operation of the power system can be modelled
directly.
The recommendation here is to incorporate demand uncertainties and “modification drivers” (in the case of
DR) as part of the energy planning process.
3.1.5.4 Energy storage options

As the study showed, the share of Variable Renewable Electricity (VRE) is expected to increase in the Bra-
zilian power grid due to favourable conditions which include economic performance and resource avail-
ability. Wind and solar photovoltaic projects will likely lead new capacity investments. While existing hydro-
power can support this growth, in the long run, other sources of flexibility will hardly be required to cope with
VRE production variability in addition to demand variability. Candidates include new open cycle gas turbine
plants, which provide capacity to supply peak demand and reserves at the expense of in-creasing the emis-
sion of greenhouse gases, or batteries. An alternative is to develop Pump Hydro Storage (PHS).
The following process could be developed as part of the planning exercise to examine this alternative:
a) the use of specialized geoprocessing algorithms that operate on a digital terrain model to screen for
most promising sites for the construction of PHS considering also existing reservoirs;
b) the evaluation of environmental and social impacts and definition of a hierarchy of more promising
areas due to smaller expected impacts;
c) the use of an engineering module to design PHS candidate projects in the selected sites (i.e. hy-
draulic structures and electromechanical equipment) and calculate their costs;
d) the use of an Integrated Resource Planning optimization model, such as OptGen, to investigate the
set of candidates that is selected by the model considering multiple scales of storage options (e.g.
daily cycles, weekly, monthly or seasonal).
The approach has the advantage of understanding the projects that are interesting to the portfolio of gener-
ation projects in the power systems, such as energy storage, installed capacity, ramping rate, round-trip
efficiency and location.
3.1.5.5 Wind and solar mesoscale models

A process should ideally combine layers of relevant information, such as the wind speed, available area,
distance to roads, terrain slope, existence of conservation and indigenous areas, and others, to perform a
“screening” with GIS related tool of the potential that could be explored in each cluster and to capture the
variability within each wind cluster. With such a process, the preparation of candidates for expansion is
improved because an upper bound of the capacity is created. The second benefit is to add variability of
resource inside a MERRA2 cell.
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Figure 3-6: Process for downscaling reanalysis data
This approach has been made to downscale reanalysis data. For instance, the Global Wind Atlas (GWA)
uses high-resolution topographic information, such as hills, ridges and land use, such as grasslands and
forests. The wind flow model is the same of the WAsP model developed by the Department of Wind Energy
of the Danish Technical University (DTU).
3.1.5.6 Investor’s perspective in the expansion planning problem

For the planner’s roadmap to be useful, it is important to ensure that the selected projects in the optimal
expansion are in fact attractive from the investors’ point of view. One of the main reasons for different out-
looks of planner and investors is risk aversion: the planning perspective is usually risk-neutral, that is, the
objective is to minimize the present value of investment and expected operation costs. In contrast, investors
are risk-averse, i.e. they consider the variability of their operation costs and revenues, both of which are
usually related to the variability of spot prices (or, equivalently, short-run marginal costs). In other words, a
generation technology that may be optimal (least-cost) in terms of expected values may not be as attractive
if the variability of costs and revenues is incorporated to the assessment. Figure 3-7 shows a procedure to
“bridge” these different outlooks of planner and investors.
Figure 3-7: Investor’s perspective in the expansion planning problem
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As shown in Figure 3-7, OptGen considers the planner’s estimated investment costs. Next, the projects
selected in the optimal expansion are assessed with PSR’s OptFolio model, or any other financial model
that can determine the project’s risk-adjusted Return on Investment (ROI) based on its energy production
and the system spot prices. If the ROI is below the market standard, investment costs are revised and sent
to OptGen for another iteration. In the case of thermal projects, scenarios of power production (thus operat-
ing costs) and system marginal costs that are considered in the financial evaluation should be consistent
with the operating results produced by Optgen/SDDP when simulating the operation of the portfolio of pro-
jects. If large discrepancies exist between the results of SDDP and the assumptions made used in the finan-
cial model, a feedback mechanism should be used to reiterate the process until the gap is sufficiently small.
This improvement bridges the gap between the financial valuation of each project and how the project cost
is considered in the expansion planning. It assures that central planning investment decisions are also viable
from the perspective of project developers. It is also useful to investigate how possible changes in existing
market rules impact the system expansion, such as the removal of the discount of the transmission tariffs
for renewable projects or the reduction of import duties of batteries.
3.1.5.7 VRE production curtailment and water spillage

In the case study of Product 2 we already observed a few scenarios of VRE curtailments. Such cases may
happen because of excess of non-dispatchable generation, such as VRE, or inflexible generation (e.g. base-
load nuclear or hydropower associated to minimum environmental flows) with respect to demand. Though
the amount of curtailment was small, it raised the following question: how to be fair with curtailments?
The operation planning model should reduce excess power sensibly to avoid distortions or “unfair” out-
comes (e.g. a wind park maintains full capacity while the other faces a strong curtailment). The following
procedure could be used:
1) A priori determine curtailment costs for VRE projects, which could then be used to rank the curtail-
ment priority list;
2) (a) Solve the operation problem with no curtailment. In case of excessive capacity in some con-
gested buses the problem will be infeasible. (b) In this case determine VRE power curtailment per
bus by solving a power flow model that minimizes this curtailment. (c) Retrieve solution. For buses
with VRE curtailment different from zero, allocate the curtailment among connected VRE projects in
proportion to their available capacities. (d) Rerun operation planning model with updated (lower)
VRE production.
The advantage of the procedure described in Step 2 is that the results from the model would be fair and for
this reason could be adopted directly by regulators in the future (there are currently no regulations for VRE
curtailment).
3.1.5.8 DG and DR forecast

EPE’s forecast of 30 GW of distributed generation (DG) by the horizon of this study indicates that it will
become necessary to carry out resource planning considering the effect of both DG insertion and de-mand
response (DR) to different tariff policies at the low-voltage level. The diagram shown in Figure 3-8 describes
a possible planning methodology.
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Figure 3-8: DG and DR forecasting methodology
The iterative process starts at the High Voltage (HV) level, where the expansion planning input data are: (i)
generation and transmission reinforcement candidates at the HV level; (ii) HV demand forecast; (iii) an initial
forecast of Low Voltage (LV) load in each distribution company, together with DG and renewable generation;
this information is represented at the HV-LV boundary buses, with an equivalent network of the distribution
company.
The first step is to define a candidate generation and transmission expansion plan, as in the methodology
suggested during this project. The operating cost and supply reliability resulting from this candidate plan are
then calculated in step 2, based on a detailed probabilistic simulation of system operation, such as hourly
resolution, HV transmission network and integrated scenarios for inflows; renewable generation at the HV
level; distributed generation and renewables at the LV level (as mentioned, those are represented at the HV
boundary buses); and both HV and LV load. These operating costs and reliability indices are then used to
send feedback information to the investment module (Benders cuts), as part of the Benders decomposition
algorithm.
After the optimal HV plan is obtained (convergence of the decomposition process), we then update the
forecast of DG penetration and load profile at the LV level. Step 3 calculates the revised distribution tariffs.
As the figure indicates, this is done with basis on the following data: (i) transmission tariffs at the boundary
nodes (in the Brazilian regulation, they are related to the distribution companies’ capacity contracts known
as MUST); (ii) Spot prices at the boundary nodes (these prices are used to represent the change in power
import patterns of the distribution companies as their net load profiles change due to DG penetration and
demand response); and (iii) the tariff regulation.
The revised distribution tariffs for the different consumer classes (residential, commercial etc.) are then sent
to the model in step 4, which calculates, in an integrated manner, the demand response (DR) and the deci-
sion to acquire DG, basically as rooftop solar. In addition to the distribution tariffs at each consumer class,
the decisions in step 4 depend on: (i) the DG cost; (ii) DG integration policy, for example subsidies to panels
and/or (local or remote) net metering schemes; and (iii) the (empirical) penetration curves, which try to cap-
ture both the consumers’ price sensitivity and the “adoption rate” (first pioneers, then “imitation effect” and
so on.)
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The revised load profiles and DG amounts are then sent back to the HV level in step 5. The process is
repeated until an equilibrium is reached between HV and LV planning.
Finally, as indicated in the figure, the above scheme can also be used to assess the impact of different tariff
schemes on the remuneration of the distribution assets (for example, the introduction of DG reduces the net
load and, thus, the average utilization factor of distribution equipment) and/or operating costs and supply
reliability (because DG incentives are usually not locational, this may lead to increased losses and/or over-
loads). DR also changes the load profile by transferring some of the load from high tariffs to low tariff hours.
3.1.5.9 Attributes of sources in the expansion planning

Most planning methodologies represent uncertainties through stochastic models of inflows, renewables,
loads and equipment outages. Those models are then used to produce many scenarios, which are the input
of the probabilistic simulation models that calculate for example the expected operation cost and the supply
reliability indices such as loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected energy not supplied (EENS).
In the classification first proposed by Donald Rumsfeld, these uncertainties represent the “known un-
knowns”, that is, processes that can be represented by probability distributions and stochastic processes.
However, as pointed out by Rumsfeld, it is important to represent the “unknown unknowns”, or “black swans”
i.e. severe events that are extremely unlikely from the point of view of stochastic models, but that may actu-
ally happen due to the great uncertainty in estimating “tail” probabilities of events. (If the “true” probability
distribution has a “fatter” tail than the assumed distribution, the probability of those extreme events increases
by orders of magnitude.)
As shown in Figure 3-9, these events can be represented as “resilience constraints”: for each extreme sce-
nario selected by the planner, e.g. total wind production drops to 10% of average production; or LNG imports
become zero due to geopolitical events; and so on, the system must have enough resources to ensure load
supply for a given period (typically, several months) even at very high operating cost. It is interesting to
observe that the resilience constraints are related to the intuitive concept of a diverse generation mix.
The biggest energy supply challenge for the power sector in any country is to ensure that demand is met
with reliability, economy and sustainability. In Brazil's case, the new energy auctions are the main “engine”
for the generation expansion. Since the comparison between the different bids in the auctions is made only
by the price of energy (for forward contracts) or the expectation of the cost of energy for the consumer (in
the case of availability contracts), the externalities for all services - or attributes - that each generation source
can provide to a power system are not explicitly valued. Additionally, there are subsidies and financial and
tax incentives given to generators that affect the final price of energy, also influencing the result of auctions.
Thus, the final price of energy auctions does not reflect all the costs and benefits of each source to the
electricity sector and society.
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Figure 3-9: Attributes of sources in the expansion planning
3.1.5.10 Visualization tools for the analysis of input data and simulation results
Experience of this project has shown it is important to communicate well the results of the planning exercise.
This task is more difficult when we consider the complexity of the evolution of the system given the variability
of supply options and their attributes. It is also important to invest heavily on post-processing tools to inves-
tigate the behaviour of the operation of system considering variability of sources, location, technology, and
seasonal patterns.
Considering stochastic simulations with multiple scenarios, hourly time steps in horizons of several years
and hundreds or even thousands of projects, the massive output results produced by the simulations need
to be translated into knowledge and insights. Visual tools that include powerful filters and result aggregation
are key components for performing this task. Visualization tools should also help in the identification of
changes in patterns of operation of system, for instance, by adding features that compare – for given se-
lected indices – the results of two simulations.
All considered, the following minimum list should be an integral part of the planning exercises:
1) Preparation of a dashboard with customized key results, such as present value of costs, share of
generation by source, marginal costs and CO2 emissions. In the case of hourly simulations,
heatmaps with day of the year in the X-Axis, hours of the day (0-23h) in the Y-Axis and colours
denoting the value of the variable of interest (e.g. production or marginal cost), can be included to
facilitate identification seasonal and diurnal behaviours.
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2) In the case of expansion planning studies, the use of parallel plots is useful for comparing attributes
of different portfolios. Attributes may be the costs, the amount of renewable generation, the measure
of regional distribution, the CO2 emissions, and others. Filters for ranges of values for each attribute
(columns) help identify the subset of portfolios that could “seriously” be considered by planners and
to communicate trade-offs to the society. A positive experience with this approach was achieved
when communicating different hydropower development plans (inventory studies) to stakeholder in
Gabon and Mexico. The attributes included installed capacity, yearly production, wet area, river
connectivity measures, population resettlement count and others.
3) The use of web-based georeferenced maps with different layers of information that can be selected
by the user is also an interesting way of communicating results of studies. Maps can include location
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of projects of each technology, new transmission lines (or reinforcements of existing lines) and oth-
ers. Given the existing experience of EPE in Web-based digital maps, the recommendation is that
the expansion plans of the PDE (Ter-year expansion plan studies) also present results using the
same maps available for existing resources.
In this study we have created an initial iterative map that shows new generation capacity and additions as
well as transmission lines reinforcements with respect to the PDE 2026. This viewer is available at
http://psr.cloud/work/webmap/GIZ/ illustrated next:
Figure 3-10: GIS-based data visualization platform (overview)
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3.1.5.11 Robustness of the solution and sensitivity analyses

The evaluation of the portfolio robustness is usually investigated by comparing expansion plans, based on
defined attributes of future scenarios under different evaluation criteria. The model process flow is divided
in four main tasks and is described as follows:
· Task 1: Determining expansion alternatives through optimal expansion plans according to different
user-defined assumptions;
· Task 2: Testing the expansion alternatives in different future scenarios in order to model the uncer-
tainties in assessing the long-term plan;
· Task 3: Defining attributes to compare the expansion alternatives;
· Task 4: Comparing the expansion alternatives through their attributes and determining the final ex-
pansion plan.
In order to execute Task 1, the different set of assumptions that should be considered in the optimal expan-
sion plan must be defined. As examples, the set of assumptions can be a combination of: (i) fuel price
forecasts; (ii) demand forecasts; (iii) the consideration (or not) of a specific technology; (iv) the consideration
(or not) of an interconnection (between regions or countries); (v) the consideration (or not) of certain fixed
contracts; etc. As can be seen, the definition of these assumptions depends on the systemic needs and
long-term strategies.
After determining the N expansion plans, the operation of each one is performed considering M different
scenarios in order to capture the uncertainty in assessing the long-term plan (Task 2). Each different sce-
nario is defined as a possible “Future”. These possible future scenarios the system might face may be prob-
abilistic or non-probabilistic and the different set of assumptions should also be defined by the planner (dif-
ferent demand forecasts, different discount rates, different fuel availability and price forecasts, etc.). In sum-
mary, Task 2 consists in simulating the operation of each expansion alternative in each possible future (total
of NxM runs).
Then, the planner must select the attributes that will be used to compare the expansion alternatives (Task
3). The attributes may be just a one-dimensional vector having one value per stage, or a vector with dimen-
sion S, where there will be a number associated to each time stage and stochastic scenario). For example,
the investment cost is not a stochastic output, whereas the operation cost and the CO2 emission are. For
the latter ones, the next step is to convert the S-dimensional vectors of attributes to scalar values per stage.
This conversion may be done (i) by calculating the average of all scenarios or (ii) by using a metric that
combines CVaR with mean value, such as:
( ) + (1 − ) ( )
where the parameter is the risk aversion index and α is the CVaR quantile.
Now that these attributes associated with Expansion Plan n and Future Scenario m have been converted to
scalar values per stage; the next step is to convert the attributes into a single scalar value. This may be done
(i) through the direct summation or (ii) by applying the discount rate to find the Net Present Value (NPV).
Once a scalar value per attribute is known, the result of each Plan x Future is calculated by combining all
the attributes.
However, it is also important to remember that attributes can be measured in different units: for instance,
investment costs and operating costs are measured in million dollars; the risk of rationing is measured in %
and the emission in millions of tons of CO2 may be taken into account through binary flags (based on an
acceptable pre-defined amount). Thus, it is necessary to stablish criteria in order to compare attributes with
different measures units. For some outputs, as costs, they are directly used. For others, function of satis-
faction can be assigned as follows: (i) if the attribute is below a threshold, the function value is zero; (ii) if
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the attribute exceeds a saturation point, the function value is 1. Between the minimum threshold and the
saturation point, the function is monotonically increasing, with values from between zero and one.
The result of each Plan-Future is then a combination of all attributes, usually through (i) a weighted sum; or
(ii) the sum of “satisfaction” indices associated to each attribute (like fuzzy logic calculations). The allocation
of weights depends on the range of the measures and their relative relevance in the decision-making pro-
cess. Another option is to define the satisfaction of a certain alternative for the Future Scenario m as the
minimum satisfaction value with respect to all attributes. As it can be seen, several options are available,
and it is up for the planner to define sensible criteria for selection.
At the end of the day, Task 4 determines the best alternative based on (i) the minimization of the expected
value of the costs, or (ii) the minimization of the maximum regret (Savage criterion) or (iii) the maximization
of a satisfaction function. The first option is straightforward. The second one is based on the following pro-
cedure:
1) calculate the reference cost of each possible “Future”, which is the lowest result value of all expan-
sion plans in each possible “Future”;
2) calculate the regret of each expansion plan in each possible “Future”, which in turn is the difference
between its associated result and the reference cost;
3) calculate the maximum regret of each expansion plan contemplating all possible “Futures”;
4) select the expansion alternative with minimum (maximum) regret.
If the third option is chosen, the alternative that has the greatest mean satisfaction for all attributes and future
scenarios is selected.
By applying this complete procedure, sensitivity analysis in terms of expansion options may be evaluated by
defining different expansion alternatives and the robustness can be checked by defining many different “Fu-
tures”. Figure 3-11 summarizes the process.
Figure 3-11: Solution robustness assessment
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3.1.6 Summary of methodological recommendations

Table 3-1 summarizes the methodological recommendations to be used in energy planning practices con-
sidering the rapid transformation of power systems due to factors such penetration of VRE, distributed en-
ergy resources, and others.
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Table 3-1: Energy studies - summary of methodological recommendations

# Theme Current Methodology6 Methodology used in Study Possible improvement Analysis/Challenges
Challenges involve modelling, as

(1) Use generation & transmission some reliability modules would
reliability assessment and integra- need to integrate the planning pro-
tion with planning tools. cess and data acquisition (unavail-
ability rates based on historic out-
Two software are used, one for
ages per unit).
generation system expansion
planning and the other for a sto-
A model for system expansion and
chastic operation planning. There (2) Use of model for project finan- The procedure needs to be de-
another for operation with hourly
is an iterative process between the cial analysis to incorporate in- signed from scratch as it is pres-
steps (instead of load blocks), indi-
models until the marginal cost of vestor's risks so that complete ex- ently not made by EPE. Financial
vidualized projects (instead of ag-
expansion is equal to expected pansion plan is compatible with results from auctions can be used
gregate reservoirs per region) and
Models used in value of the marginal cost of oper- developer's decisions. to infer risk profiles.
a probabilistic modelling of hourly
planning study ation (condition for global opti-
1 renewables production. A special-
and general mum). The plan is then evaluated
ized model was used for transmis-
methodology to assure there is sufficient capac-
sion expansion using a linear
ity to meet the peak demand for a (3) robust grid planning model, in- Coordination efforts by EPE’s
power flow model for multiple sce-
reliable supply. This verification cluding N-1 criterion, while consid- energy and electric areas for inte-
narios of production, instead of se-
links capacity-related constraints ering multiple dispatch scenarios. grated planning.
lected conditions, to support a ro-
with energy-related constraints.
bust optimization.
For instance, capacity of hydro
producers is conditioned to the en-
ergy availability.
Modelling issues and database
(4) Reactive power investment op- preparation of resources of reac-
timization. tive power and their investment
unit costs.
6
Methodology used on PDE 2026
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Monthly profile and contribution in
each load block are estimated out- (1) Enhancement of both models
Representation of VRE needs to
side models. for expansion planning and opera-
Use of location of projects that improve in both models (expan-
tion to include probabilistic VRE
Preparation of Wind power: based on data from participated in electricity auctions, sion planning and system opera-
production. (2) Preparation of sce-
VRE candidate projects enabled to take part in the calibration of existing energy rec- tion). The representation should
narios using either a statistical
projects for ex- electricity auctions. Production in ords with MERRA database for ex- move away from monthly mean
2 method or machine learning. (3)
pansion each load block based on AMA tension of time series, use of production (zero variance) to
Hourly or sub-hourly data acquisi-
planning stud- database (actual production). So- Bayesian network for the genera- hourly or sub-hourly scenarios that
tion from VRE projects would need
ies lar PV power: reference values of tion of multivariate scenarios of can incorporate the modulation of
to be organized for planning pur-
auctions used. Production contri- hourly VRE production each source and corresponding
poses and integrated with en-
bution in each load block based on variability.
hanced planning models.
INPE database.
There are older inventories with
Screening of hydro projects based Hydropower inventory studies con-
assumptions that need revision.
on inventories and feasibility stud- sidering both techno-economic
The study did not focus on new The task is to update these studies
Hydropower ies. Sufficient lead time for project and socioenvironmental issues
hydropower plants in addition to under a new paradigm, with social
3 candidate pro- preparation, permits, and others to supported by specialized computer
those already considered in the and environmental considerations
jects participate in the 10-year horizon. model for the preparation of sensi-
PDE. from early stage planning, follow-
Selection based on viability & soci- ble candidates for expansion stud-
ing a more participatory process
oenvironmental complexity. ies.
for the discussion of alternatives.
As an assumption for planning

Investigation of trade-offs between
study resources of region A were Evaluation and definition of spe-
Multi-area Allows resources of region A to multi-area x single-area supply of
not allowed to supply reserves of cific criteria to measure the robust-
4 spinning re- supply reserves of region B, fol- reserves and best practices with
region B, even though this is part ness of the system and define the
serve lowing ONS practice. respect to system
of normal operation practice car- minimum desirable requirements.
expansion planning studies.
ried out by ONS.
An important improvement given

Exogenous scenario of distributed the continuous growth of DG. An
Use of endogenous approach
Distributed EPE utilizes external scenarios of generation imported to study. Allo- analysis of the requirements
based to coherently integrate DG
5 Energy Re- DG based on specific models cation of DG capacity made in shows a large challenge to make
growth scenarios within the plan-
sources (such as diffusive BASS model) "frontier buses" that connect the this operational (GIZ is currently
ning framework.
HV grid with the distribution utility. supporting a study with this objec-
tive).
Limit the capacity of candidate The challenge is to include trans-
Maximum
projects selected in each region mission bottlenecks and others in
6 VRE per No limitation imposed No limitation imposed
breaking up larger clusters into the selection of the number of re-
region
smaller ones if needed. gions of investment decisions in
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addition to wind patterns/profiles
used in the study.
EPE makes probabilistic assess-

Firm capacity margin with respect Include a system reliability module Introduce the model as a compo-
Reliability of ments of the supply criteria7 (mar-
to peak annual demand and firm that provides feasibility cuts to the nent of planning model and treat
7 expansion ginal cost of expansion equal to
energy margin with respect to expansion model to meet reliability the data, based on equipment out-
planning average marginal cost of opera-
mean demand criteria (LOLP, EENS). ages, for planning purposes.
tion)
This model is required to separate

the factors of project unavailability
(forced outages and scheduled
maintenance). There are at least
Project Include model to determine repre- two advantages: (1) reliability crite-
Use of unavailability rates combin-
maintenance sentative maintenance schedules ria can be introduced in the plan-
8 ing forced and maintenance out- Same as current practice
of the projects to avoid degrading ning model (as seen); (2) dispatch
modelling ages.
supply reliability. scenarios of improve integration
with transmission planning / elec-
trical studies and electrical studies
because nominal capacity is con-
sidered.
A better representation of trans-

mission bottlenecks is the motiva-
Use of community identification al- tion for this recommendation.
Spatial gorithm to determine which buses The number of regions is decided
Seven systems were used, with
representation: EPE uses 11 systems and of the complete HV grid should be after simulating the operation of
9 some differences with respect to
number of sys- 3 fictitious nodes associated in each region for a policies made with a reduced num-
current practice.
tems given number of regions (input ber of regions with the full network
data). and examining impacts on costs.
Association of buses to regions is
based on nodal values.
7
In December 2019, the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved the use of new supply criteria in Brazil. This improvement was necessary to adapt the power
sector to the new technological reality that has been established and the new market design that is intended for the electricity sector
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Use of simplified representation
The objective is to improve the
with energy transfers among re-
modelling of constraints on the HV
Regional gions limited by informed amounts Use of linear representation that
grid in the expansion planning pro-
10 exchange (based on reliability criteria used in Same as current practice approximates an aggregate effect
cess, thus reducing the gap be-
limits transmission studies). Sum of en- of Kirchhoff second law.
tween energy planning studies and
ergy flows in different from-to ex-
electric studies.
changes also considered.
It is important to establish criteria

for the number of hours that Run
Spinning All Run-of-river plants can follow Introduce hydrology-related con- of River plants can be sustained at
A fraction of the capacity of each
reserve for run- load, except those with high sea- straints, especially in large pro- a given capacity. This may be a
11 plant is available for the supply of
of-river hydro sonality, which contribute with their jects with a strong seasonal pat- function of water inflows due to
reserve for the units in operation.
plants mean monthly production. tern such as Belo Monte (11GW) seasonal effect. This is true for
both reserve allocation and supply
of peak demand.
Large database required for a bot-

tom up demand modelling. Ad-
Incorporation of Demand Re- vantage of modelling effects that
Demand forecasted on macro-eco- sponse and the ability to model are with specific to some sectors
Demand Profile based on 2015 hourly curve
12 nomic variables. Hourly profile structural changes in the demand (e.g. effect of a change in the
forecast by ONS per region
based on verified real data. profile for the different classes of structure of the residential tariff) or
consumption. cross-sectorial, such as an in-
crease on efficiency standards of
motors.
Suppose demand increases with

temperature (due to air condition-
Temperature
Use of temperature and other cli- ing) and that wind velocity is re-
effect on
matic variables in the preparation duced in hot days. Clearly the
13 demand and - -
of scenarios of demand and VRE combined effect on supply and de-
VRE
production. mand is more challenging if these
production
factors are treated jointly than in-
dependently.
Pumped hydro storage (PHS) is a

Energy stored during surplus Preparation of more candidates for
Two technologies were used in special case because projects
Energy power for use in moments with system expansion considering ca-
14 study (Li-Ion 1h battery and NaS must be located in locations with
storage smaller availability with respect to pacity, stored energy, ramping
6h thermal storage) large water head between upper
load, including losses. constraints and location in the grid.
and lower reservoirs.
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The Global Wind Atlas, for in-

Mesoscale VRE models can be stance, introduces a high-resolu-
Mesoscale
used to downscale reanalysis tion topographic data, such as
15 wind and - -
data, such as MERRA2 that used hills, ridges and land use in a wind
solar models
in study. flow model. Data availability and
security are a challenge.
Risk premiums may be added to

Project costs are either based on
Project project costs. Ideally an interactive
references per technology for Inclusion of risk premiums in pro-
developer process should be made until the
16 "general projects" or come from Same as current practice ject costs when carrying out a cen-
vs. central expansion plan is also financially
specific studies, as hydropower vi- tralized expansion planning.
planner viable considering the developer’s
ability studies.
risk perspective.
Criteria should be defined and in-

corporated in model (such as the The main challenge is to design
use of small variable production the criteria for VRE curtailment
VRE Curtail- Optional cost of curtailment (not
17 - costs) to determine a priority if cur- quickly before it becomes a critical
ment Criteria used in study)
tailment is necessary, to guaran- and controversial issue with the in-
tee a fair operation for the various crease of VRE in the next years.
producers.
Represent the “unknown un-
A careful design of scenarios un-
knowns”, or “black swans” i.e. se-
der unusual, though possible
vere events that are extremely un-
events, is required. As an exam-
likely from the standpoint of sto-
ple, the Ministry of Energy and
The sector models known chastic models, but that may actu-
Resilience Mines of Chile used simulation
18 unknowns, such as water inflows Same as current practice ally happen. For each extreme
Constraints models to answer what-if ques-
to dams. (but feasible) scenario selected by
tions to evaluate the resilience of
the planner the system must have
the national energy system. The
enough resources to ensure load
motivation was the 2010 earth-
supply for a given period even at
quakes with a magnitude of 8.8.
very high operating cost.
Design a module for the prepara- A user-friendly web-based module
EPE already presents maps with
Presentation of PSR produced maps with the re- tion of customized graphs based for the preparation of user-se-
19 expansion but no interface for ma-
results sults of planned expansion. crude output data produced by lected graphs with the results of
nipulation of output results
MDI and other models. his/her interest.
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3.2 Power system studies

3.2.1 Overview
The integration in power systems of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources pose the following specific
challenges in comparison to the conventional synchronous machine-based generation: the intermittency and
variability of the VRE, their non- or poor dispatchability and the power conversion technology that is more
and more inverter-based (i.e. without physical inertia). These three peculiarities have a number of impacts
that are not anymore negligible when the level of penetration becomes significantly high in the entire system
or in a specific region.
Planning a power system (in short-, mid- and long-term horizons) for massive integration of VRE sources
requires in-depth analyses of the power system performance in both steady-state and dynamic conditions
in order to ensure system adequacy, security and quality of supply.
The proposed methodology for power system studies in view of system planning for VRE integration is com-
posed by 4 main blocks, as described in Figure 3-12. Not all elements of this methodology were applied in
the Product 3 of this project. Nevertheless, those steps that were not implemented in the project are still
included as recommended methodological improvements for future studies.
· Analysis of system inertia and primary frequency control (PFC) performance;
· Selection of relevant operating conditions for static and dynamic analyses;
· Static analyses;
· Dynamic analyses.
It must be emphasized that all the analyses within the framework of the power system studies take into
account the entire network and not only the main transmission system. In other words, network loading and
voltage/var control are analysed for both the main network as well as the sub-transmission and distribution
networks that are modelled in the database.
Details of the methodologies for each main block are given in the following subsections.
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Figure 3-12: Methodology for power system studies (overview)
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3.2.2 Analysis of system inertia and PFC performance

Figure 3-13 presents an overview of the proposed methodology for the assessment of system inertia in the
Brazilian system. The analysis starts with the disaggregation of the power plant dispatches at generating
unit level (see Section 3.8 of Product 3 report for more information on this process). This is done for every
single hourly dispatch produced in the hourly simulations of the energetic operation of the system defined in
the energy studies.
The next step consists in the calculation and statistical analysis of the following quantities:
· Total system inertia (synchronous, synthetic and total);
· Equivalent inertia per geographical region;
· System ROCOF.
In addition to the calculation of the aforementioned quantities, it is also important to evaluate the performance
of the primary frequency control (PFC) in order to determine the frequency nadir (and the time instant it
happens) and post-disturbance steady-state frequency value by means of “single node equivalent” dynamic
simulations.
The last step consists in analysing the results produced in the previous steps and translate them into prac-
tical recommendations for the system expansion planning and operation.
Figure 3-13: System inertia assessment - overview of the methodology
3.2.2.1 Total system inertia

The objective of this part of the assessment is to quantify the total system inertia for each hour of the year.
In order to do so, three quantities are calculated:
· Total synchronous inertia;
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· Total potentially available synthetic inertia;

· Total potentially available inertia.
Instead of presenting the inertia values in terms of inertia constant ( , in MW∙s/MVA), it is proposed to
analyse the system inertia in terms of the kinetic inertia (in MW∙s). This is done because the notion of
inertia constant is derived with the objective of allowing the comparison of the inertial properties of synchro-
nous machines in a per unit basis. This notion can be easily extended to the characterization of the inertial
response of an AC system mainly composed of synchronous generating units. In the case of power systems
with high penetration of renewables, this notion of inertia constant is not useful anymore and might lead to
misinterpretation of the behaviour of this kind of systems. Under these conditions, the most adequate varia-
ble to quantify the system inertia is the energy (kinetic or synthetic) available in the system to provide inertial
response.
Total synchronous inertia

The total synchronous inertia of the system (here expressed as the total kinetic energy of the synchronous
generators in operation) for each operating condition (hour of the year) is calculated as follows:
= , ∙ ∙ (3-1)
where:
· : total system synchronous inertia [MW∙s];
· : number of synchronous generators;
· , : rated apparent power of the i-th synchronous machine [MVA];
· : inertia constant of the i-th synchronous machine [MW∙s/MVA];
· : operating status of the i-th synchronous machine (0: OFF; 1: ON).
Total potentially available synthetic inertia

The Sub-Module 3.6 of the Brazilian grid code [1] specifies the following synthetic inertia requirement for all
wind power plants with an installed capacity higher than 10 MW connected to the Brazilian interconnected
system:
Wind power plants with an installed capacity greater than 10 MW must be equipped with controllers sensitive
to frequency variations in order to emulate inertia (synthetic inertia) through transient power output modula-
tion. The WPPs must contribute with at least 10% of their available power for a minimum period of 5 seconds
when subject to under-frequency, for frequency deviations greater than 0.2 Hz. Withdrawal of this contribu-
tion shall be automatically performed when the frequency returns to its nominal value.
The initial active power injection shall be proportional to the frequency variation, at a minimum rate of 0.8 pu
of the nominal wind turbine power for each Hz of frequency deviation (0.8 pu/Hz).
The full synthetic inertia provision shall be made available whenever the active power of the wind turbine is
equal to or greater than 25% of its nominal power. The maximum holding times for the additional 10% power
shall be reported for power levels less than 25% of the rated output of the wind turbine.
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Figure 3-14: Synthetic inertia requirement (Brazilian grid code)
In this case, wind power plants are required to be capable of providing at least 10% of the available power
during at least 5 seconds following a disturbance that might trigger the synthetic inertia control activation.
Considering that the synthetic inertia function should only be made available by the power plant when re-
quested by the system operator, this inertia is not always promptly available. For the purpose of the calcu-
lation of the equivalent system inertia for each operating condition throughout an entire operating year, the
Consultant proposes to consider the total synthetic inertia that could be made available by all wind power
plants of the system as a “potential synthetic inertia” or, in other words, a quantity of synthetic inertia that is
theoretically available but that is put in service only when required by the system operator.
The maximum potential synthetic inertia of the system is calculated as follows8:
= , ∙ 0.1 ∙ 5 (3-2)
where:
· : maximum (potential) system synthetic inertia [MW∙s];
· : number of wind power plants;
· , : active power output of the i-th wind power plant.
Maximum potentially available total system inertia

The maximum potentially available total system inertia is defined as follows:
= + (3-3)
where:
· : maximum (potential) total system inertia [MW∙s];
· : total system synchronous inertia [MW∙s];
· : maximum (potential) system synthetic inertia [MW∙s].
8
0.1 is related to the 10% of the available WPP output power; 5 is related to the minimum amount of time for which the
total synthetic inertia of the WPP must be injected in the system (5 seconds).
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3.2.2.2 Equivalent inertia per geographical region

In this part of the analysis, the system inertia values computed according to the methodology presented in
Subsection 3.2.2.1 are split by geographical region (CW, N, NE, S and SE)9. The objective of this analysis
is to quantify the distribution of the system inertia per region of the system and therefore analyse the im-
portance of the interconnections between the subsystems for the secure operation of the system.
It must be emphasized that even if the evaluation of system inertia per geographical region or subsystem
presents useful insights for system planning, it might not be looked alone. For synchronously interconnected
systems such as the Brazilian one, the focus of system inertia analysis should be on the evaluation of the
total system inertia.
3.2.2.3 System ROCOF

The analysis of the system inertial response only by the kinetic energy values does not directly translate into
practical insights in terms of quantification and qualification of frequency stability. In order to provide addi-
tional elements for this analysis, system rate of change of frequency (ROCOF) and time to reach the first
stage of the under-frequency load shedding scheme are calculated, as follows.
Rate of change of frequency (ROCOF)

The system ROCOF is computed for two cases:
· Lower bound: considering only the kinetic inertia of the synchronous generators (lower bound);
· Upper bound: considering the total energy available for inertial response (sum of kinetic energy of
synchronous generators and the energy provided by synthetic inertia controls).
The mathematical definitions of the system ROCOF for both cases are given as follows:
· System ROCOF considering only the synchronous inertia, in Hz/s
∆
= ∙ (3-4)
2
where:
o : system ROCOF considering only the synchronous inertia [Hz/s];
o : nominal frequency of the system [Hz];
o ∆ : active power imbalance;
o : total system synchronous inertia [MW∙s].
· System ROCOF considering the maximum (potential) total system inertia, in Hz/s
∆
= ∙ (3-5)
2
where:
o : system ROCOF considering the maximum (potential) total system inertia [Hz/s];
o ∆ : active power imbalance;
o : total system synchronous inertia [MW∙s].
9
A future work might be the redefinition of this criterion by electrical subsystem instead of geographical region.
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It must be emphasized that system ROCOF values depend on the amount power imbalance (contingency
size) considered.
Time to reach the first UFLS stage

The time to reach the first UFLS stage is a quantity computed based on the system ROCOF and on the
frequency threshold of the first stage of the UFLS scheme. It represents the amount of time required by the
system frequency reach the first UFLS stage in case no PFC action is performed (in other words, the amount
of time a system under pure inertial response required to trigger the first UFLS stage).
As for the calculation of the system ROCOF, the time to reach the first UFLS stage is computed for two
cases:
· Lower bound: considering only the kinetic inertia of the synchronous generators (lower bound);
· Upper bound: considering the total energy available for inertial response (sum of kinetic energy of
synchronous generators and the energy provided by synthetic inertia controls).
The mathematical definitions of the time to reach the first UFLS stage for both cases are given as follows:
· Time to reach the first UFLS stage considering only the synchronous inertia
− ,
, = (3-6)
where:
o , : time to reach the first UFLS stage considering only the synchronous inertia [s]
o , : frequency threshold for the first UFLS stage [Hz];
o : system ROCOF considering only the synchronous inertia [Hz/s].
· Time to reach the first UFLS stage considering the maximum (potential) total system inertia
− ,
, = (3-7)
where:
o : time to reach the first UFLS stage considering the maximum (potential) total system
,
inertia [s]
o , : frequency threshold for the first UFLS stage [Hz];
o : system ROCOF considering the maximum (potential) total system inertia [Hz/s].
3.2.2.4 Primary frequency control performance evaluation

The evaluation of system inertia alone is not enough to assess the impact of high shares of VRE on the
frequency stability of the system and should be complemented by an analysis of the dynamic performance
of the primary frequency control (PFC). In order to allow the assessment of the PFC performance without
the interference of other complex dynamic phenomena not directly linked to the primary frequency control
loops of the generating units, the Consultant proposes the application of a methodology based on a “single
node equivalent” representation of the system, as depicted in Figure 3-15.
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Figure 3-15: “Single node equivalent” representation of the system
The evaluation of the PFC performance is assessed by modelling the dynamic behaviour of the Brazilian
system as follows:
· Synchronous generators with dynamic model in the full system model:
o Full synchronous machine model;
o Exciter/AVR: constant field voltage;
o Turbine/governor: full turbine governor model.
· Synchronous generators without dynamic model in the full system model:
o Constant active power injection;
o Constant reactive power injection.
· Wind power plants:
· Solar PV power plants:
· Distributed solar PV:
· Load:
o Constant active and reactive power.
Figure 3-16 presents the methodology for the evaluation of PFC performance using the aforementioned
model. It must be highlighted that the 4 steps of the methodology are followed for every single operating
condition produced in the hourly simulations of the energetic operation of the system.
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Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
•Read dispatch •Update static •Initialize the •Calculate

per power model of the dynamic frequency
plant from "single node model Nadir and
hourly equivalent •Simulate the associated
dispatch system" system time
simulation •Perform load normative •Calculate
results flow contingency system RoCoF
•Disaggregate simulation (e.g. loss of •Obtain system
dispatch per largest infeed frequency in
generating or load step steady-state
unit corresponding (post-event)
to the
normative
contingency)
Figure 3-16: PFC performance evaluation - overview of the methodology
3.2.3 Selection of relevant operating conditions

Performing power system studies in systems with high VRE shares require the analysis of a greater number
of system operating conditions. The underlying reason is the variable nature of VRE sources, resulting in a
much wider diversity of system operating conditions than in systems composed only by conventional gener-
ation10. This large amount of operating conditions to be simulated requires a methodology to select the
relevant operating conditions for detailed power system analysis and identify the new weak points of the
system. Figure 3-17 depicts the approach adopted by the Consultant to select relevant operating conditions
for power system analyses.
Figure 3-17: Selection of relevant operating conditions - overview
10
In these systems, the main source of variability to the system operation is the load.
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3.2.3.1 Analysis of the hourly system operation

The analysis of the hourly operation of the system aims at understanding the system operation patterns and
supporting the selection of relevant operating conditions for the power system studies. In order to do so, the
following aspects are analysed from the hourly generation dispatch simulation results:
· Instantaneous VRE penetration level;
· Tie-line power flows;
· Load/generation balance of each subsystem;
· Composition of the generation dispatch per type of source.
The instantaneous VRE share with respect to the total system load for each hour h of the operation horizon
is computed, according to the following equation:
∑ , +∑ , +∑ ,
ℎ = (3-8)
∑
where:
· ℎ : instantaneous VRE share (VRE penetration with respect to the total system load at hour
h);
· : number of wind power plants;
· : number of solar PV power plants;
· : number of distributed solar PV equivalent plants;
· : number of loads;
· , : active power production of power plant i at hour h;
· : active power demand at node i at hour h.
3.2.3.2 Selection of relevant operating conditions

This section presents the methodology for the selection of the relevant operating conditions for power system
studies. It must be highlighted that the analysis of the hourly system operation is of utmost importance for
the selection of a representative set of operating conditions. As the proposed approach to select the relevant
operating conditions is not an automatic process but rather a procedure to follow to identify relevant operat-
ing conditions, deep knowledge of the hourly operation of the system is required.
The selection of relevant operating conditions is divided in two parts:
· Selection of extreme operating conditions;
· Selection of “likely” operating conditions.
The selection of extreme operating conditions is based on pre-defined criteria (deterministic approach),
aiming at identifying the most critical system operating conditions from different perspectives. The selection
of likely operating conditions aims at identifying the operating conditions that are more likely to happen
during an operating year and is based on statistical data analysis (probabilistic approach).
3.2.3.2.1 Extreme operating conditions

Extreme operating conditions are defined as operating points that represent maximum stress for the system
from different points of view. In this project, the following system stress conditions have been analysed:
· Annual total peak load
· Annual total minimum load
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· Maximum export: NE
· Maximum import: NE
· Maximum export: S
· Maximum import: S
· Maximum import: SE
o At highest instantaneous VRE share
o At highest instantaneous VRE share in SE
o At lowest instantaneous VRE share
o At lowest instantaneous VRE share in SE
· Highest instantaneous VRE share (total)
o At high load conditions
o At low load conditions
It can be observed that special attention is dedicated to the regions NE, S and SE. The underlying reasons
are:
· SE region is the main load centre in the Brazilian system;
· NE and S regions are the main VRE production regions in the Brazilian system.
3.2.3.2.2 Likely operating conditions

The selection of “likely” operating conditions aims at identifying representative states that describe a group
of similar operating conditions, therefore reducing the amount of operating points to be analysed in the power
system studies while covering a wider range of possible operating conditions.
In order to perform such a selection, cluster analysis (clustering) techniques are applied over a large set of
operating points resulting from the simulations of the hourly operation of the system.
The proposed methodology for this task is shown in Figure 3-18. A detailed description of each step is given
in the report of Product 3.
Figure 3-18: Selection of "likely" operating conditions – methodology overview
In this project, no satisfactory results were obtained by employing this method. However, it has been em-
ployed in other large systems around the world with good level of success, such as in the work presented in
[2]. It is therefore recommended further research and development work in this topic in order to incorporate
this technique in the planning methodology.
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3.2.4 Static analyses

This subsection describes the methodology proposed by the Consultant for the analysis of the steady-state
behaviour of the Brazilian power system within the framework of system planning studies for VRE integration.
The list below presents the main system steady-state characteristics that are at stake with the integration of
large amounts of VRE and that drive the static analyses presented in this chapter:
· New generation dispatch patterns trigger the need to ensure the voltage profile with an aggravating
factor that is the narrower reactive power range of inverter-based generators with respect to con-
ventional generating units based on synchronous machines;
· Displacement of units in the dispatch merit order, resulting in new power flow patterns and need to
keep an adequate voltage profile and equipment loading throughout the network;
· New power flow patterns trigger the need to ensure that preventive and corrective security aspects
are still ensured;
· The new generation dispatch could impact the short-circuit power (inverter-based generation dis-
placing conventional units based on synchronous machines). This is potentially a problem for the
synchronization between regions, as well as for the operation of CSC HVDC technology and possi-
bly for the voltage stability near the load.
In order to understand the proposed methodology for the static analyses in the context of an integrated
(energy and power system analyses) expansion planning approach, it is important to recall that part of the
network expansion planning is carried out within the framework of the capacity expansion planning in the
Energy Studies.
The part of transmission expansion planning carried out in the energy studies uses a linear representation
of the transmission network11, considering only normal operating conditions (N configuration). Stability con-
strains are indirectly considered for the tie-lines only through the use of power flow constrains per interface
between the subsystems (NTC constraints). The internal network constraints are set equal to the thermal
limits of the transmission lines and to the nominal capacity of transformers 12 and enforced for the main
transmission network only ( ≥ 230 kV).
Step 1 Step 2
•NTC expansion between •Optimal transmission

subsystems expansion planning
•Network representation: •Network representation:
transportation model DC model, constraints
(NTC between only applied to ≥
subsystems) 230kV
•Network expansion is an •Piecewise linear
alternative for additional approximation for
generation capacity transmission losses
•Contingencies are not
taken into account
Figure 3-19: Transmission expansion planning – energy studies
11
DC load flow model including an approximation for the transmission losses.
12
Theses limits consider a unity power factor (e.g. 1000 MVA capacity is translated into 1000 MW transfer capacity).
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The transmission network expansion planning is further developed by means of a series of static studies.
The methodology proposed by the Consultant for the static studies is summarised in Figure 3-20 and further
detailed in Figure 3-21. The following subsections present more details about this methodology.
• Disaggregation of generation dispatch per generating unit

Step 0
• Analysis of partial transmission expansion plan (energy studies)

Step 1
• Operation optimization (OPF)
Step 2 • Static security assessment (contingency analysis)
• Short-circuit current analysis

Step 3
Figure 3-20: Static studies - overview of the methodology
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Figure 3-21: Static studies - detailed methodology
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3.2.4.1 Step 0: disaggregation of generation dispatch per generating unit

The simulations of the energetic operation of the system performed in the framework of the energy studies
consider an aggregated representation of the supply side at power plant level. This is a valid modelling
approach for those purposes. However, power system simulations require a finer representation of the gen-
eration, at generating unit level.
A methodology is required in order to disaggregate the dispatch from power plant generating unit level. In
this project, the Consultant employed a methodology to disaggregate the dispatch results through the solu-
tion of an optimization problem. This optimization problem is solved for every power plant of the system that
contains more than one generating unit.
The proposed optimization problem consists in minimizing the number of dispatched units in a power plant
while respecting the following criteria:
· The sum of the active power output of each generating unit equals the dispatch of the power plant
defined in the energy studies;
· The sum of spinning reserve provided by each generating unit is equal or higher the minimum spin-
ning reserve requirement for that given power plant.
The proposed objective function aims at analysing the system at the most critical condition from system
stability point of view, where the least number of generating units are connected to the network. This results
in an operating condition with worst case system inertia, short-circuit power and voltage regulation capabili-
ties.
The mathematical formulation of the formulated optimization problem is given as follows:
min (3-9)
subject to:
∙ = (3-10)
≤ ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-11)
∙ − ∙ ≥ (3-12)
∈ [0,1] (3-13)
where:
· : number of generating units composing the power plant;
· : generating unit operating status (1 = ON / 0 = OFF);
· : active power dispatch of the i-th generating unit, in MW;
· : power plant active power dispatch (total), in MW;
· : minimum active power constraint of the i-th generating unit, in MW;
· : maximum active power constraint of the i-th generating unit, in MW;
· : minimum spinning reserve requirement for the power plant (total), in MW13.
13
It must be emphasized that the minimum spinning reserve requirement is an input data for this problem. It is there-
fore not subject to optimization in this process.
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This optimization problem formulation results in a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem,
which is highly demanding in terms of computational effort for its solution. In order to overcome this draw-
back, the optimization problem is re-written as follows:
min (3-14)
subject to:
= (3-15)
∙ ≤ ≤ ∙ , ∈ 1… (3-16)
∙ − ≥ (3-17)
∈ [0,1] (3-18)
This is a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem, which is easier to solve than the previous for-
mulation while yielding the same mathematical solution.
The optimization problem has been implemented in a Python script, using the following libraries:
· Python version: 3.6;
· Mathematical modelling language: PuLP [3]
· Optimization solver: COIN-OR CBC [4]
3.2.4.2 Step 1: analysis of partial transmission expansion plan

Results from the capacity and transmission expansion planning produced in the energy studies framework
need to be refined in order to:
· Take into account power flow limits in transmission equipment outside the main transmission net-
work ( < 230 );
· Take into account N-1 and N-X14 contingencies.
The main objective of this step is to avoid carrying forward active power transfer capacity problems in both
normal and emergency conditions to the operation optimization and reactive power compensation design
phases.
In order to do so, a set of load flow and contingency analyses using a linearized network model (DC load
flow model with losses) are carried out, as per the methodology summarised in Figure 3-22. This process
consists of a set of consecutive DC load flow and DC static security assessment calculations intercalated
with network reinforcement actions15 made by the planner in order to ensure that, at the end of the process,
there are no network overload problems (active power transfer only) in both normal and under contingency
conditions.
14
For example, transmission lines sharing the same right of way, critical double circuit transmission lines in the same
tower, etc.
15
The network expansion and reinforcement options should be defined a priori as a set of transmission expansion and
reinforcements candidates allowing the planner to perform the adequate cost-benefit analyses when deciding for the
most adequate expansion options.
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Figure 3-22: Step 1: analysis of partial transmission expansion plan
In the linear network representation (DC load flow model), the line and transformer limits in terms of active
power transfer are defined as follows:
= ∙ (3-19)
where:
· : maximum active power transfer limit of the transmission equipment from bus i to bus j;
· : rated power factor16;
· : rated apparent power transfer of the transmission equipment from bus i to bus j;
The possible overloading of lines and transformers in these analyses are assessed considering the afore-
mentioned limits. The reason behind this redefinition of the equipment limits is to avoid defining a network
structure that won’t have sufficient capacity to allow reactive power flows through the network elements
without resulting in equipment overloads.
In this step, additional verifications in terms of power flow transfer capability on transmission lines was car-
ried out in order to try to identify in a preliminary stage (by using a linear load flow approximation) possible
limits that could appear when performing the static simulations using a nonlinear representation of the net-
work. The indices developed for these verifications are described in the following subsections.
3.2.4.2.1 Phase angle difference between terminals of a transmission line

The first index is obtained by the calculation of the maximum angle difference between HVAC line nodes.
As presented in [5], “…for any feasible solution of the transmission expansion problem, the difference of the
16
It is recommended that the FP value be set between 0.9 and 0.95, depending on the adopted transmission equip-
ment design criteria.
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angles prevailing at both ends of every existing line, or every built prospective line, is sufficiently small (typ-
ically within 20o) …”. In this context, the purpose is to compare the power flows through each HVAC line in
non-radial parts of the networks with the power flow limit. For cases in which the power flow limit is violated,
evaluate the possible need for network reinforcement. The power flow limit is given by:
Ɵ
= (3-20)
where:
· : Maximum active power flow of the HVAC line between nodes i and j;
· Ɵ : Maximum angle difference between nodes i and j;
· : Reactance of the HVAC line between nodes i and j.
3.2.4.2.2 Voltage drop limit

The second index is obtained by calculating an estimation of the voltage drop across each HVAC transmis-
sion line of the system. The reason for checking the power flows across the network with this index is to
avoid too high flows on lines and cables in the DC load flow solution that would lead to complications in the
reactive power compensation design phase.
The principle is to limit the power flow through a line or cable in order to take into account the maximum
acceptable voltage drop across the line. For long lines, the voltage drop is higher than the maximum admis-
sible value for loading and lower than the thermal limit of the line. In this study, the maximum acceptable
voltage drop considered is equal to 10%, as depicted in Figure 3-23.
∆V = 10%
= . ̇ ̇ = .
Ɵ = ° R + jX
P + jQ
FP = 0.90
Figure 3-23: Calculation of the voltage drop across a transmission line
3.2.4.3 Step 2: operation optimization and static security assessment

In this step it is performed the reactive power compensation design, specifying additional network reinforce-
ments and adjusting the system operation using an optimal power flow (OPF) tool. The methodology em-
ployed in this task is shown in Figure 3-24. In this step, it is not expected to significantly reinforce the network
in terms of additional lines and transformers given that the majority of the active power transfer problems
are solved in Step 1. Therefore, the great part of the network expansion and reinforcement options that are
to be decided in this step consists in shunt reactive power compensation devices to allow proper voltage/re-
active power control in the network.
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Figure 3-24: Step 2: operation optimization and static security assessment
The operation optimization process is divided in two parts:

· Identifying a feasible network expansion solution:
The objective of this part is to define a minimum network configuration (network capacity + reactive
power compensation) in which the operating criteria (voltage magnitude, reactive power limits on
generating units and SVCs, power transfer capacity in network elements, etc.) respect a set of pre-
defined planning criteria. However, this solution might lead to equipment being operated close to
their limits, which is not desirable from a long-term planning perspective.
· Identifying an optimal expansion planning solution.
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This part aims at enhancing the network expansion plan in order to maximize the individual reactive
power margins of the generating units and dynamic reactive power compensation devices (e.g. SVC,
synchronous condensers) in order to enhance the stability margin of the system.
The next step is to ensure that the network configuration is adequate for operation under contingency. In
order to do so, a full-scale static security analysis is performed for all normative contingencies of lines and
transformers in the main transmission network17. In case branch overloads or voltage control problems are
detected, the planner must decide the additional network reinforcements to be put in place and restart the
process until no violation of operation and planning criteria is detected in both normal and under contingency
conditions.
3.2.4.3.1 Feasible OPF solution

The feasible OPF formulation consists in defining an OPF problem without any objective function. In this
case, the solution of the optimization problem is one that respects all constraints but that do not optimize
any specific system performance objective. Two versions of the feasibility problem were used in this project:
(i) original formulation; (ii) relaxed formulation. The difference between the two formulations is that in the
relaxed one the active and reactive power balance equations for each node are relaxed by using slack
variables. The relaxed formulation is used when there is no solution for the original one.
In the proposed methodology, when the original formulation does not converge (no solution), another OPF
run is done considering the relaxed version of the optimization problem. The results of the relaxed problem
are very useful in order to indicate points of the network where additional reactive power compensation
means are required and/or power transfer capacity needs to be increased.
In the proposed methodology, the following control variables and constraints were taken into account:
· Control variables:
o Active power injection of selected generators (“slack generators”)18;
o Reactive power injection of generators, SVC’s and synchronous condensers;
o Tap position of OLTC transformers;
o Number of connected blocks of reactor/capacitor banks;
o HVDC control variables.
· Constraints:
o Kirchhoff’s laws (active and reactive power balance at each busbar);
o Reference voltage phase angles at selected busbars (one constraint per synchronous sys-
tem);
o Voltage magnitude limits at all voltage levels;
o Reactive power limits of generators, SVC’s and synchronous condensers;
o Active power injection at selected “slack generators”;
o OLTS transformer tap limits;
o Minimum and maximum number of reactor/capacitor bank blocks.
17
Contingencies in the sub-transmission and distribution networks are not evaluated. However, planning and operation
criteria for these networks are always checked for the contingencies in the main transmission network in order to avoid
that those contingencies lead to violation of operational limits in all networks.
18
The dispatch of the generating units is defined in the energy studies. However, in order to compensate for the losses
in the network, the active power setpoint of a small set of generators across the system is selected as control variable.
This avoids the use of slack buses in the OPF solution.
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Power flow limits are not enforced in this step of the proposed methodology because the generation dispatch
is fixed (defined in the energy studies). Therefore, possible network overloads due to reactive power flows
not considered in the previous steps are dealt with in a post-processing phase.
Subsections 3.2.4.3.1.1 and 3.2.4.3.1.2 present the mathematical formulation of the original and relaxed
formulations of the feasibility problem, respectively.
3.2.4.3.1.1 Original formulation

min 0 (3-21)
subject to:
∆ = 0, ∈ 1 … (3-22)
∆ = 0, ∈ 1 … (3-23)
= 0, ∈ 1 … (3-24)
≤ ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-25)
, ≤ , ≤ , , ∈ 1… (3-26)
, ≤ , ≤ , , ∈ 1… (3-27)
, ≤ , ≤ , , ∈ 1… (3-28)
, ≤ , ≤ , , ∈ 1… (3-29)
≤ ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-30)
, ≤ , ≤ , , ∈ 1… (3-31)
where:
· ∆ : active power balance at busbar ;
· ∆ : reactive power balance at busbar ;
· : voltage phase angle at busbar ;
· : voltage magnitude at busbar ;
· : minimum voltage at busbar ;
· : maximum voltage at busbar ;
· , : reactive power injection from generator, SVC or synchronous condenser ;
· , : minimum reactive power injection from generator, SVC or synchronous condenser ;
· , : maximum reactive power injection from generator, SVC or synchronous condenser ;
· , : active power injection from generator ;
· , : minimum active power injection from generator ;
· , : maximum active power injection from generator ;
· : tap position of OLTC transformer ;
· : minimum tap position of OLTC transformer ;
· : maximum tap position of OLTC transformer ;
· , : number of connected blocks of reactor/capacitor bank ;
· , : minimum number of connected blocks of reactor/capacitor bank ;
· , : maximum number of connected blocks of reactor/capacitor bank ;
· : number of busbars;
· : number of angular reference busbars;
· : number of generators;
· : number of SVC’s;
· : number of synchronous condensers;
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· : number of “slack generators”;

· : number of OLTC transformers;
· : number of controllable reactor/capacitor banks.
3.2.4.3.1.2 Relaxed formulation
min , + , (3-32)
subject to:
∆ + , = 0, ∈ 1 … (3-33)
∆ + , = 0, ∈ 1 … (3-34)
= 0, ∈ 1 … (3-35)
≤ ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-36)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-37)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-38)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-39)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-40)
≤ ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-41)
, ≤ , ≤ , , ∈ 1… (3-42)
where:
· , : slack variable of active power balance at busbar ;
· , : slack variable of reactive power balance at busbar ;
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3.2.4.3.2 Optimal OPF solution

The optimal OPF formulation consists in maximising the reactive power reserves of the system19. The es-
sential advantage of this objective function is its implicit self-stable determination of the best “mean” system
voltage whatever the situation of the system. The local nature of reactive power equilibrium of system oper-
ated at nearly constant voltage requires operating a large number of control means: generating units, reac-
tor/capacitor banks and on-load tap changers. The problem consists in choosing and then applying adequate
setpoints to these different equipment. Two versions of the feasibility problem were used in this project: (i)
original formulation; (ii) relaxed formulation. The difference between the two formulations is that in the re-
laxed one the active and reactive power balance equations for each node are relaxed by using slack varia-
bles. The relaxed formulation is used when there is no solution for the original one.
In the proposed methodology, when the original formulation does not converge (no solution), another OPF
run is done considering the relaxed version of the optimization problem. The results of the relaxed problem
are very useful in order to indicate points of the network where additional reactive power compensation
means are required and/or power transfer capacity needs to be increased.
In the proposed methodology, the following control variables and constraints were taken into account:
· Control variables:
o Active power injection of selected generators (“slack generators”)20;
o Reactive power injection of generators, SVC’s and synchronous condensers;
o Tap position of OLTC transformers;
o Number of connected blocks of reactor/capacitor banks;
o HVDC control variables.
· Constraints:
o Kirchhoff’s laws (active and reactive power balance at each busbar);
o Reference voltage phase angles at selected busbars (one constraint per synchronous sys-
tem);
o Voltage magnitude limits at all voltage levels;
o Reactive power limits of generators, SVC’s and synchronous condensers;
o Active power injection at selected “slack generators”;
o OLTS transformer tap limits;
o Minimum and maximum number of reactor/capacitor bank blocks.
19
This means maximizing the reactive power margin of each generating unit by means of placing the reactive power
dispatch of the machine as close as possible to the middle of the range between Qmin and Qmax.
20
The dispatch of the generating units is defined in the energy studies. However, in order to compensate for the losses
in the network, the active power setpoint of a small set of generators across the system is selected as control variable.
This avoids the use of slack buses in the OPF solution.
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Power flow limits are not enforced in this step of the proposed methodology because the generation dispatch
is fixed (defined in the energy studies). Therefore, possible network overloads due to reactive power flows
not considered in the previous steps are dealt with in a post-processing phase.
Subsections 3.2.4.3.2.1 and 3.2.4.3.2.2 present the mathematical formulation of the original and relaxed
formulations of the feasibility problem, respectively.
3.2.4.3.2.1 Original formulation
, − , , − , , − ,
min + + (3-43)
, − , , − , , − ,
subject to:
∆
= 0, ∈ 1 … (3-44)
∆
= 0, ∈ 1 … (3-45)
= 0, ∈ 1 … (3-46)
≤ ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-47)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-48)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-49)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-50)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-51)
≤ ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-52)
, ≤ , ≤ , , ∈ 1… (3-53)
where:
· , : central reactive power injection point from where the deviation is being minimized;
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3.2.4.3.2.2 Relaxed formulation
, − , , − , , − ,
min + + + , + , (3-54)
, − , , − , , − ,
subject to:
∆ + , = 0, ∈ 1 … (3-55)
∆ + , = 0, ∈ 1 … (3-56)
= 0, ∈ 1 … (3-57)
≤ ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-58)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-59)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-60)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-61)
≤ , ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-62)
≤ ≤ , ∈ 1… (3-63)
, ≤ , ≤ , , ∈ 1… (3-64)
where:
· , : slack variable of active power balance at busbar ;
· , : slack variable of reactive power balance at busbar ;
· , : central reactive power injection point from where the deviation is being minimized;
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3.2.4.4 Step 3: short-circuit current analysis

The objectives of the short-circuit current analysis are the following:
· Evaluate the maximum short-circuit currents in order to ensure that the transmission equipment can
withstand the required fault current levels;
· Evaluate the system strength by means of calculating the minimum short-circuit currents and short-
circuit ratio [6] at key points of the system (terminals of HVDC converter stations and connection
points of VRE power plants).
Figure 3-25 shows the proposed methodology for this step.
Figure 3-25: Step 3: short-circuit current analysis
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3.2.4.4.1 Maximum short-circuit currents

The short-circuit currents are calculated according to the IEC 60909-0 standard [7]. The results of these
calculations are used to assess if the fault current levels in the planned system are compatible with the
capacity of the existing or planned equipment. In case violations are detected, mitigation measures must be
put in place in order to guarantee secure operation of the related equipment.
3.2.4.4.2 System strength analysis

System strength is a commonly used term to describe how “stiff” the grid is in response to small perturbations
such as changes in load or switching of equipment. While strong grids provide a stable reference source for
resources, weak grids can pose challenges for connecting new equipment, particularly for connecting in-
verter-based resources. These resources rely on an adequate grid strength (relative to the size of the re-
source) for synchronizing the power electronics. In addition, inverter-based resources do not provide signif-
icant levels of fault current. While these issues alone do not pose a reliability risk, existing control, and
protection paradigms need to be adapted to accommodate these changing characteristics from the genera-
tion fleet [6].
In this study, the system strength is evaluated by using the short-circuit ratio (SCR) metrics. Despite, the
SCR metric being most appropriate when considering a single inverter-based resource connecting to the
bulk power system, it is employed in this project because of the nature of the study (long-term expansion
plan, with significant addition of new VRE sources). The SCR does not account for the presence of other
inverter-based resources or power electronic-based equipment.
SCR is defined as the ratio between short-circuit apparent power (SCMVA) from a three-phase-to-ground
fault at a given location in the power system to the rating of the inverter-based resource connected to that
location. Since the numerator of the SCR metric is dependent on the specific measurement location, this
location is usually stated along with the SCR number.
= (3-65)
Where:
· : short-circuit ration at the PoC;
· : short-circuit power (MVA) level at the PoC without the current contribution of the inverter-
based resource;
· : nominal power rating of the inverter-based resource being connected at the PoC.
This metric was developed as an aid in classical line-commutated converter (LCC) HVDC design, and is
commonly used by the utility industry to quantify system strength. A low SCR area (“weak system”) indicates
high sensitivity of voltage (magnitude and phase angle) to changes in active and reactive power injections
or consumptions. High SCR (“stiff”) systems have a low sensitivity and are predominantly unaffected by
changes in active and reactive power injection.
In this study, the is computed for all busbars defined as PoC for wind and solar PV power plants,
as well as for the HVDC converter stations. The is determined by computing the minimum short-
circuit current levels at the busbars ignoring the short-circuit current contribution of power electronics-based
equipment (conservative approach).
3.2.5 Dynamic analyses

System stability is one of the main challenges for the power system operation in the presence of VRE [8].
The methodology proposed by the Consultant as state-of-the-art for dynamic analysis under power system
planning for VRE integration is summarised in Figure 3-26.
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Figure 3-26: Dynamic analysis - overview of the methodology
In the Product 3 of this project, the following analyses have not been carried out 21:
· Critical clearing time (CCT) computation;
· Voltage Stability;
· Net transfer capacity (NTC) computation.
Small-signal stability analysis is the first type of analysis to be carried out in order to assess if the system is
stable and the electromechanical oscillations are properly damped. It is not recommended to perform the
other types of analyses prior to the small-signal stability because if the system is unstable or the oscillations
are poorly damped, it will have an impact on the transient and frequency stability aspects.
Details of the methodology proposed for each type of study are given in the following subsections.
3.2.6 Small-signal stability

A well-known characteristic of VRE sources is their low inertia. The integration of VRE sources to the Bra-
zilian power system might lead to significant modifications of the signature (oscillation frequency and damp-
ing) of local and inter-area electromechanical oscillation modes.
3.2.6.1 Theoretical background

The majority of power system components such as generators, excitation systems, governors and load have
very nonlinear characteristics. These components and their associated controls include saturation and out-
put limitations. Despite the fact that the nonlinear systems theory can be used to study such a system, this
is only valid for small and simple systems, which is not the case of power systems.
On the other hand, the theory of linear systems can provide useful insight into the operating behaviour of an
interconnected power system. However, this theory is only applicable under the assumption that the dynamic
behaviour of the system is linear or quasi-linear. Fortunately, low frequency oscillations in a power system
are fairly linear when caused by disturbances of small magnitude such as the random fluctuation of genera-
tion and load. The variations in system dynamic variables such as machine rotor angle and speed are also
21
Therefore, the methodology for these tasks are not presented in this report. However, they are included in Product 4
as a recommendation for future improvements in the expansion planning methodologies.
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small under these circumstances and the assumption of a linear system model around an operating equilib-
rium point provides valuable results. These conclusions are generally consistent with that is observed in the
field under similar operating conditions.
The advantage of assuming a linear model for the system is that the theory of linear systems is in a mature
state, which means that methodologies, algorithms and tools able to deal with very large systems in reason-
able computation time are available.
In power systems, the study of system stability using linear models is commonly referred to as "small-signal
stability analysis". This type of study allows the analysis of the so-called steady-state stability. The following
types of oscillation modes can be detected and identified through small-signal stability analysis:
· Local modes (machine-system modes): associated with the oscillations of units at a generating
station with respect to the rest of the system (oscillation frequency typically between 1 Hz and 2 Hz).
These oscillations are localized at one station or a small part of the system.
· Inter-area modes: associated with the swinging of many machines in one part of the system against
machines in the other parts (oscillation frequency typically between 0.1 Hz and 1 Hz). Caused by
two or more groups of electrically close machines being interconnected by weak a weak transmis-
sion network.
· Control modes: associated with generating units and other controls. The usual causes of instability
of such modes are badly tuned excitation systems, speed governors, HVDC converters and SVCs.
· Torsional modes: associated with the turbine-generator shaft system rotational components. The
usual causes of instability of such modes are interactions with excitation controls, speed governors,
HVDC controls, and series-capacitor-compensated lines.
It must be emphasized that the small-signal stability is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for the power
system operation. As consequence of not being a sufficient condition, the results of small-signal stability
analyses must be assessed through nonlinear time-domain simulations (electromechanical transient simu-
lations).
3.2.6.2 Solution approach

The first step for the small-signal stability analysis is the linearization of the power system dynamic model
around a steady-state operating point. The linearized system is then used to compute the following quanti-
ties:
· System eigenvalues and eigenvectors;
· Participation factors;
· Mode shapes.
Identification of Inter-Area and Critical Oscillation Modes

Critical oscillation modes are defined as modes with low damping level (a CIGRE "task force" about electro-
mechanical oscillations in power networks recommends a minimum damping of 5%) [9]. The identification
of critical oscillation modes starts by the computation of the system eigenvalues. As the power system model
is very large, the computation of all system eigenvalues through orthogonal decomposition-based methods
(i.e. QR factorization) is not recommended due to the large computational time and memory usage required
by these methods.
In this project, the method used for eigenvalue calculation is based on the calculation of all eigenvalues
within a predefined region of the complex plane (by employing an eigenvalue computation algorithm based
on the Arnoldi method). This region is defined by the user and must comprise the modes with oscillation
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frequency up to 3.0 Hz and damping ratios at least up to 35%. This allows the calculation of all critical
electromechanical modes of the system, as well as the inter-area modes.
The result of eigenvalues computation is a table containing all information related to the modes: real and
imaginary parts, damping ratio and oscillation frequency.
Critical modes are identified as the ones whose damping ratio is less than 5%. Inter-area modes are pre-
identified by selecting the modes whose frequency lie in the range between 0.1 Hz and 1.5 Hz. To get the
final decision on which modes are in fact inter-area modes, a second step is needed: analysis of the mode
shapes, which is explained in the sequel.
Participation Factor and Mode Shape Analysis

In this project, the goal of participation factor and mode shape analysis is to identify the inter-area modes
within the modes with frequency between 0.1 Hz and 1.5 Hz.
Analysis of participation factors:
The participation factors provide an indication of the contribution of the machines in a given mode. This is
very useful for identifying the machines that have major contributions to the critical modes as well as to the
inter-area modes.
In this study, the participation factors of all modes classified as critical (ζ < 5%) in the eigenvalue computation
phase are calculated and analysed in order to provide indications on which machines have most participation
on the critical modes.
Analysis of mode shapes
As previously described, the mode shapes give the relative magnitude and phase of the oscillations as seen
from a given state variable. Since the objective of this project is to analyse electromechanical oscillations,
the rotor speed or angle must be chosen as state variable.
In this study, the mode shapes of all oscillation modes with frequency between 0.1 Hz and 1.5 Hz are cal-
culated and analysed in order to identify all inter-area modes. After the identification of these modes, their
respective damping ratios are carefully analysed. In case of poorly damped inter-area modes, the necessary
measures to improve the damping are recommended.
Determination of candidate machines for PSS installation or retuning aiming at improving oscillation
damping
In case of the presence of critical inter-area modes, the identification of the candidate machines for PSS
installation/retuning is performed.
The choice of the machine and the input signals to be used for the improving the damping of critical modes
is not straightforward. It depends on the calculation of the controllability and observability indices.
It has to be noticed that the specification and tuning of PSS in order to improve the damping of critical
oscillation modes is out of the scope of this project.
3.2.7 Transient stability

The recovery of a power system subjected to a severe large disturbance is of interest to system planners
and operators. Typically, the system must be designed and operated in such a way that a specified number
of credible contingencies do not result in failure of quality and continuity of power supply to the loads. This
calls for accurate calculation of the system dynamic behaviour, which includes the electromechanical dy-
namic characteristics of the rotating machines, generator controls, static var compensators, loads, protective
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systems and other controls. Transient stability analysis can be used for dynamic analysis over time periods
from few seconds to few minutes depending on the time constants of the dynamic phenomenon modelled.
Transient stability means the ability of a power system to experience a sudden change in generation, load,
or system characteristics without a prolonged loss of synchronism. The aim of transient stability analysis is
to assess the capacity of the power system to overcome faults and regain a stable equilibrium condition after
fault clearance. Transient stability analysis allows the verification of the protection schemes with respect to
the stability of the system.

The methodology for a full-scope transient stability analysis is divided in two types of simulations: (i) dynamic
security assessment (DSA); (ii) critical clearing time (CCT) computation.
The objective of the DSA is to assess the security of the system from a dynamic point of view. It can be
seen as an evolution of the static security assessment (N-1 criterion). In the proposed methodology, the
focus of the DSA is on the system stability and voltage recovery after incidents. The sizing incident for the
DSA are the ones defined in the Sub-Module 23.3 of the Brazilian Grid Code [10]22, and depicted below:
Figure 3-27: DSA - general overview of the simulation events
The outcomes of this analysis are:

· The possible needs of automatic control of reactive power compensation means (reactor/capacitor
banks, static var compensators – SVCs or reactive power margin of generating units) in order to
meet operational and security criteria for all sizing incidents (loss of a generating unit, loss of trans-
mission element, faults, etc.).
· The possible need of reviewing some defence actions and Special Protection Schemes (SPS) 23;
· The identification of the weakest point of the system and the most constraining incidents.
The CCT is defined as the maximal fault duration for which the system remains transiently stable. The CCT
is computed by iterative analysis of system post disturbance conditions (iterative dynamics simulations with
increasing fault duration until the system becomes unstable). The evaluation criteria for the CCT studies are
the following:
· CCT must be strictly higher than the protection base time plus a margin defined by the planner;
· If CCT is lower than the protection backup times, it necessary to implement adequate protection
schemes (i.e. out-of-step relays) to adequately manage the consequence of the out of synchronism
conditions.
22
Single-phase to ground short circuit cleared in base protection time (different time per voltage level).
23
The use of SPS is only considered in the expansion planning for non-normative contingencies or for normative con-
tingencies with very low probability of occurrence and where preventive actions are too expensive to be implemented.
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The critical clearing time is a computationally intensive task and therefore is only carried out for faults in the
interconnection lines between subsystems. In case there are critical transmission lines within a subsystem,
it is also recommended to perform the CCT analysis for these lines.
3.2.8 Frequency stability

This subsection provides an overview of key concepts of frequency control [11].
System inertia
System inertia is provided by the aggregate rotating mass of all synchronous machines and motors that are
directly coupled to the grid. Synchronous inertial response is the instantaneous transfer of the kinetic energy
from these machines to the grid in response to a change in grid frequency (as a consequence of load and
generation imbalances). The response is provided by the intrinsic physical properties of the machine, and
does not require control system interaction.
The response acts to limit the ROCOF. Under low ROCOF conditions, PFC has more time to respond than
under high ROCOF conditions.
A detailed methodology for the evaluation of of system inertia is presented in Subsection 3.2.2.
Primary frequency control (PFC)
PFC is when a generator measures the local frequency and adjusts its active power output in response. PFC
is automatic; it is not driven by a centralised control system and begins immediately after a frequency change
beyond a specified level (speed governor dead-band) is detected.
At a system level, PFC is needed to arrest a change in frequency following a disturbance. Stable control of
frequency relies on PFC, making it essential for power system security.
Switched primary reserves, or purposefully tripped load, may assist the PFC from generators in arresting a
change in frequency following a disturbance.
Primary reserve refers to the headroom available ( 1 = − , ) for PFC to respond to a frequency
disturbance.

In the case of power system planning in the presence of VRE sources, frequency stability analysis becomes
even more important. It is well known that VRE sources have limited capabilities of providing inertia and
operating reserves. The majority of the VRE power plants are only equipped with down regulation capability.
The objectives of the frequency stability assessment are:
· Evaluate the adequacy of the criteria for sizing and allocating the primary reserve;
· Evaluate the performance of the primary frequency control of the system;
· Evaluate the adequacy of the transmission reliability margins (TRM) of the interconnection between
subsystems.
The evaluation of the frequency stability is performed by carrying out the following simulations, for each
operating condition selected for power system studies:
· Loss of the biggest generating unit in CW region;
· Loss of the biggest generating unit in N region;
· Loss of the biggest generating unit in NE region;
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· Loss of the biggest generating unit in S region;

· Loss of the biggest generating unit in SE region;
· Loss of the biggest load in CW region;
· Loss of the biggest load in N region;
· Loss of the biggest load in NE region;
· Loss of the biggest load in S region;
· Loss of the biggest load in SE region;
· Loss of a single pole of each HVDC link;
· Loss of the bipole of each HVDC link.
The following variables are monitored in these simulations:

· Active power flows between the subsystems;
· System frequency;
· Speed deviation of the most significative synchronous generating units per subsystem.
3.2.8.3 Transfer capacity limits

The methodology is to estimate first the Total Transfer Capacity (TTC) and then to subtract the Transfer
Reliability Margin (TRM). The net transfer capacity (NTC) is estimated as follows:
= − (3-66)
The TTC is the maximum power transfer that can occur between two countries without violating stability
limits or operational rules. The TRM is a margin to take into account the cross-border power flow deviation
following the loss of a generating unit. NTC’s depend on the topology of the network and generation pat-
terns. Ideally, NTC’s have to be re-calculated regularly and closer to real-time when the state of the network
is known more accurately.
3.2.8.3.1 Total transfer capacity (TTC)

The TTC estimation uses as starting point the initial operating condition defined in the static studies. From
these base case scenarios, the system is stressed by increasing the cross-border transfer. The stress con-
sists in a progressive increase of the active power flow between the countries for which the maximum power
transfer capacity is calculated. The load is increased uniformly in one country and decreased in the other
one to create the power transfer. This method changes the flow between the concerned countries and the
modifications are balanced so that the frequency remains at nominal frequency (e.g. 60 Hz) in the global
network. The load modification concerns only the active part of the load. The reactive power load is kept
constant.
The simulation is stopped when a criterion is violated or when the load in the exporting country has been
reduced to zero without violations.
A dedicated tool, SYSCAN, for assessing the dynamic behaviour under stressed situations has been used.
The computation in SYSCAN is illustrated in Figure 3-28. The system is increasingly (e) stressed in consec-
utive steps (d), up to a certain point where the observed quantities do not comply with pre-defined criteria
(b).
· Stress: a progressive transfer increase between neighbouring countries is examined
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· Incidents: loss of major elements of the interconnection

· Criteria: voltage limits, frequency limits, loss of synchronism
Figure 3-28: Illustration of stress, incidents and criteria evaluation with SYSCAN
The following figures illustrate the SYSCAN methodology used to estimate the TTC. It can be seen in Figure
3-29 that the system is stressed by increasing the cross-border transfer. Then, one line of the interconnection
is tripped and the system stays secure. This means that the cross-border transfer is below the maximum
TTC.
SYSCAN performs a dichotomic search and increases the stress until finding an unstable case (shown in
Figure 3-30). If the system is unstable, SYSCAN decreases the stress until finding a stable case satisfying
the tolerance on the dichotomic search. SYSCAN presents the results in a table which shows the maximum
acceptable stress level.
The same methodology is used for each TTC calculation.
Figure 3-29: Illustration of the NTC methodology (secure simulation)
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Figure 3-30: Unstable case, the system is more stressed than in the previous case and instability is de-
tected
Figure 3-31: The SYSCAN tool provides a table showing the stable and unstable cases. The cases are ac-
cepted (A) or rejected (R) according to the pre-defined criteria
3.2.9 Planning and operation criteria

The planning and operation criteria adopted in this project are the ones defined in the Sub-Module 23.3 of
the Brazilian Grid Code [10].
3.2.10 Summary of methodological recommendations

Table 3-2 presents a summary of the methodological recommendations for power system studies proposed
in this project. It must be emphasized that some of the recommended studies were not performed within the
framework of this project but are recommended to be carried out as an evolution of the planning methodology
employed in this project.
Table 3-2: Types of analyses performed in power system studies

Performed in this Level of Importance for
Study
Project? Future Planning Studies
Selection of relevant operating conditions Yes +++
Analysis of system inertia Yes +++
DC load flow and DC static security assessment Yes ++
Operation optimization (OPF) Yes +++
Static security assessment Yes +++
Short-circuit current analysis Yes ++
System strength analysis No ++
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Performed in this Level of Importance for

Study
Project? Future Planning Studies
Transient stability – DSA Yes +++
Transient stability – CCT No +
Frequency stability Yes +++
Small-signal stability Yes +
Transfer capacity limits No +++
Table 3-3 summarizes the methodological recommendations to be used in power system studies considering
the rapid transformation of power systems due to factors such penetration of VRE, distributed energy re-
sources, and others.
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Table 3-3: Power system studies - summary of methodological recommendations

(1) Integrate the input data for all

static simulations in a single input The only challenge is related with
parameter file (e.g. integrate IT. Ensuring compatibility of previ-
ANAREDE and ANAFAS data ous versions of the models is key.
files).
The CEPEL power system simula- The power system simulation soft-
(2) Implement automatic data con-
tion software package is currently ware package developed by
sistency and quality checks for Definition of the checks to be em-
employed in power system analy- Tractebel was employed in the
every simulation module. Two lev- ployed in line with the types of
sis. The following computation study. The following computation
els of checks should be imple- models in use in Brazil.
modules are used: modules have been used:
Models used in mented: warnings and errors.
planning study - Load flow and contingency analy- - Load flow and contingency analy-
1 sis; sis;
and general
methodology - Optimal power flow; - Optimal power flow; (3) Fully customizable OPF tool, IT-related challenges, as well as
- Short-circuit current calculation; - Short-circuit current calculation; allowing the user to select con- stronger requirements in terms of
- Electromechanical stability simu- - Extended term electromechanical straints and control variables per technical expertise by the user to
lation; stability simulation; equipment and/or groups of equip- correctly configure the optimization
ment based on pre-defined filters. problems.
- Small-signal stability analysis. - Small-signal stability analysis.
Complex IT challenges for the

(4) Integration of energy and
specification of the database,
power system analysis database,
which must be done in close col-
including model versioning control
laboration with the experts in en-
and model approval process.
ergy and power system analyses.
Revision of the equivalent models

Use of equivalent VRE power of existing VRE power plants to
Thorough review of the existing
plant models developed by the ensure that the power plant con-
models of wind and solar PV
planner based on the individual Use of standard models for wind trollers are modelled as well as
power plants, which might trigger
2 VRE modelling models of the power plants. Not and solar PV power plants based that the model represents correctly
further interactions with the power
every model includes the repre- on [12] and [13], respectively. the behaviour of the power plant at
plant owners in order to validate
sentation of the power plant con- the point of connection. For future
the models.
trollers. power plants, use the kind of mod-
els adopted in this study.
24
Methodology used on PDE 2026
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Perform a thorough review of the
turbine/governors of the existing
Models used for system expansion
units in order to ensure that the
planning are the same as the ones
Models of existing and already models reflect the reality of the
used by the system operator (vali-
planned units are the ones availa- units (e.g. Pmin, Pmax, valve
Dynamic model- dated models as per the grid Thorough review of the existing
ble in the ANATEM database from opening limits, rate limits, etc.).
ling of conven- code). dynamic models, which might trig-
3 PDE 2026. Generating units with For new units, employ standard
tional power For future power plants resulting ger model validation campaigns
missing models have been cor- models or models based on similar
plants from the expansion planning exer- with specific power plant owners.
rected by associating a standard units already existing in the data-
cise, not all new units have an as- model to each of the units. base (ensuring that the associated
sociated dynamic model (e.g. new
controls are properly tuned ac-
open and combined-cycle units).
cording to the parameters of the
units).
Modelled as constant current

Adoption of more detailed dynamic
Modelling of dis- sources for the aggregated unit at
4 Not modelled. models such as the one investi- Still an active topic in R&D.
tributed solar PV the distribution feeder connection
gated in [14].
point.
Extensive use of statistics,

heatmaps, duration curves, histo-
grams, etc.
Use of graph layout algorithms for Explore advanced power system
Requires performant computa-
quick visualization of simulation re- simulation results visualization
Duration curves, histograms, tional resources, as well user skills
Presentation of sults and analysis of network to- tools and follow-up research pro-
5 power flow system diagrams, and for the definition of the right visual-
results pology on the performance of the jects in the domain such the initia-
simulation results figures izations for the different types of
system. tives of NREL in advanced power
information being analysed.
Advanced dynamic simulation systems data visualization.
plots using the advantage of sav-
ing the time series of every state
variable of the dynamic model.
Strong IT challenge to implement
Extensive customization of the Customize the applications for the a Python API for every computa-
API-oriented Not available in current version of simulation tools via the use of the recurrent power system simulation tion module. Strong requirements
6
tools CEPEL software package. Python API’s available with the analyses performed by the planner for the users of the tools in terms
computation engines. in a day-to-day basis. of programming and scripting
skills.
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Pre-defined operating conditions
based on: hydrological season Employ data analytics-based
Selection of Op- Extreme operating conditions se-
(wet/dry), import/export level per methods to identify “likely” operat-
erating Condi- lected from the results of the simu-
7 subsystem, critical VRE dispatch ing conditions from large and Still an active topic in R&D.
tions for Power lations of the hourly energy opera-
selected from either historical data dense datasets of generation dis-
System Studies tion.
or from the results of energy plan- patch results.
ning studies.
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4 POWER SYSTEM PLANNING DATABASE

A key aspect when performing power system planning under high VRE penetration levels is to couple energy
and electrical studies. The underlying reason for this coupling is because VRE penetration requires more
detailed operation of the energetic operation of the system (detailed representation of the technical charac-
teristics of generating units and full representation of the network) and the analysis through power system
studies of a higher quantity of system operating conditions.
In order to effectively perform power system planning activities with high shares of VRE sources, it is required
to seamlessly integrate the energy and electrical study models. A non-exhaustive list of parameters and data
that are needed for both energy and electrical studies is given as follows:
· Transmission network parameters: topology, impedance of branches, rated capacity of equipment,
transfer capacity limits between subsystems, etc.;
· Generating units’ data: , , , , connection node, etc.;
· Load data: connection node, distribution over time (demand profile), distribution over the nodes of
the system, etc.
The scheme employed in this project for the development of a coupled “energy-electrical” model database
is depicted in Figure 4-1. It is strongly recommended to put in place a common database and model man-
agement system and process in order to guarantee the quality of the results of the studies, as well as en-
suring the efficiency of the performed planning activities.
Figure 4-1: Coupling of energy and power system simulation models
The main recommendations for the development and implementation of a power system planning database
are given as follows:
· Common database for energy and power system simulation models;
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· User access control to the database (read/write permissions, password control, modification track-
ing, etc.);
· Model validation and approval process;
· Common parameters between electrical and energy simulation models must be linked;
· Automatic check of mismatches between electric and energy simulation models;
· Allow data exchange between different computation modules (input data and simulation results);
· Model version control;
· Cloud-based.
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5 REFERENCES
[1] Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS), “Procedimentos de Rede - Vigentes,” ONS, [Online].
Available: http://ons.org.br/paginas/sobre-o-ons/procedimentos-de-rede/vigentes. [Accessed 10 June
2019].
[2] E. D. N. Z. a. C. K. Q. Hou, “Impact of High Renewable Penetration on the Power System Operation
Mode: A Data-Driven Approach,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 731-741,
2020.
[3] "Python Package Index - PuLP 1.6.10," [Online]. Available: https://pypi.org/project/PuLP/. [Accessed
2019].
[4] “Computational Infrastructure for Operations Research,” [Online]. Available: https://projects.coin-
or.org/Cbc. [Accessed 2019].
[5] A. M. A. C. N. Alguacil, “Transmission Expansion Planning: A Mixed-Integer LP Approach,” IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 1070-1077, 2003.
[6] North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), “Integrating Inverter-Based Resources into
Low Short Circuit Strength Systems,” NERC, 2017.
[7] International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), “IEC 60909-0: Short-circuit currents in three-phase
a.c. systems,” International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), 2016.
[8] Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), “Analysis of System Stability in
Developing and Emerging Countries: Impact of Variable Renewable Energies on Power System
Reliability and System Security,” GIZ, 2013.
[9] CIGRE TF07-SC38, “Analysis and Control of Power System Oscillations,” CIGRE, Paris, 1996.
[10] Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS), “Submódulo 23.3 - Diretrizes e Critérios para Estudos
Elétricos,” ONS, Rio de Janeiro, 2018.
[11] Australian Energy Market Operator Limited (AEMO), “Renewable Integration Study Stage 1
(Appendix B),” AEMO, 2020.
[12] International Electrotechnical Commission - IEC, IEC 61400-27-1 Electrical simulation models – Wind
turbines, Edition 1.0 2015-02 ed., Geneva, 2015.
[13] Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Renewable Energy Modeling Task Force, Generic
Solar Photovoltaic System Dynamic Simulation Model Specification, 2012.
[14] D. R. A. G. J. C. B. I. ALVAREZ-FERNANDEZ, “Parameterization of aggregated Distributed Energy
Resources (DER_A) model for transmission planning studies,” CIGRE Science and Engineering, vol.
15, pp. 158-168, 2019.
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ENERGY SYSTEMS OF THE FUTURE:

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ENERGY SYSTEMS

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Energy Systems of the Future: Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Sources

Document Title: Product 4 – Methodology Studies

Prepared by: Lahmeyer International GmbH

Authors: Leonardo Rese, Rebecca Sinder (Tractebel)

Date: November 2019

Coordination: Florian Geyer (GIZ)

Este estudo foi elaborado no âmbito da Cooperação Alemã para o Desenvolvimento

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1. Todas as indicações, dados e resultados deste estudo foram compilados e

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List of Participants / Lista de Participantes

Steering Committee / Comitê Gestor

Technical Committee / Comitê Técnico – EPE

Technical Committee / Comitê Técnico – ONS

Technical Committee / Comitê Técnico – Consultant / Consultor

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Enjoy the reading.

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O estudo sobre a Integração de Fontes Renováveis Variáveis na Matriz Elétrica

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The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), thanks the

Many thanks to all.

Special thanks to the friend and colleague Juarez Castrillon Lopes

Thank you very much from the entire team.

Processing No.: 15.2126.9-001.00

A Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit – GIZ, agradece aos

Um muito obrigado a todos.

Agradecimento especial ao amigo e colega Juarez Castrillon Lopes

Na conclusão deste estudo, a equipe não poderia deixar de registrar

Muito obrigado de toda a equipe.

Client Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit

Project title Energy systems of the future:

Consultant: Lahmeyer International GmbH

PSR Soluções e Consultoria em Energia Ltda

Date June 2020

Revision Date Status Author Verified Approved

Processing No.: 15.2126.9-001.00

1.1 Background & context 8

2 CURRENT PLANNING METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS IN BRAZIL 11

2.1 Capacity expansion planning 11

2.2 Transmission expansion planning 11

2.3 Software tools currently used in the planning process 12

3 RECOMMENDED PLANNING METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS 13

3.1 Energy studies 13

3.2 Power system studies 40

4 POWER SYSTEM PLANNING DATABASE 79

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Figure 3-1: Expansion planning process - overview 14

Figure 3-3: CORAL – Overview of the Monte Carlo sampling scheme 18

Figure 3-4: System representation with 7 clusters 20

Figure 3-5: Network representation 21

Figure 3-6: Process for downscaling reanalysis data 25

Figure 3-7: Investor’s perspective in the expansion planning problem 25

Figure 3-8: DG and DR forecasting methodology 27

Figure 3-9: Attributes of sources in the expansion planning 29

Figure 3-10: GIS-based data visualization platform (overview) 31

Figure 3-11: Solution robustness assessment 33

Figure 3-12: Methodology for power system studies (overview) 41

Figure 3-13: System inertia assessment - overview of the methodology 42

Figure 3-14: Synthetic inertia requirement (Brazilian grid code) 44