https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2021.

p0521
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Based on the Combination of Bivariate
Statistics and Modified Analytic Hierarchy Process Methods: A Case Study
of Tinh Tuc Town, Nguyen Binh District, Cao Bang Province, Vietnam

Paper:

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Based on the Combination of

Bivariate Statistics and Modified Analytic Hierarchy Process
Methods: A Case Study of Tinh Tuc Town, Nguyen Binh District,
Cao Bang Province, Vietnam
Nguyen Trung Kien∗,† , The Viet Tran∗∗ , Vy Thi Hong Lien∗ , Pham Le Hoang Linh∗∗∗ ,
and Nguyen Quoc Thanh∗
∗ Instituteof Geological Sciences, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology
Lane 84, Chua Lang Street, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam
† Corresponding author, E-mail: kien.mgri@gmail.com
∗∗ Department of Civil Engineering, Thuyloi University, Hanoi, Vietnam
∗∗∗ Institute of Ecology and Works Protection, Hanoi, Vietnam

[Received November 30, 2020; accepted January 28, 2021]

Tinh Tuc town, Cao Bang province, Vietnam is prone
to landslides due to the complexity of its climatic, ge-
ological, and geomorphological conditions. In this
study, in order to produce a landslide susceptibility
map, the modified analytical hierarchy process and
landslide susceptibility analysis methods were used
together with the layers, including: landslide inven-
tory, slope, weathering crust, water storage, geology,
land use, and distance from the road. In the study
area, 98% of landslides occurred in highly or com-
pletely weathered units. Geology, land use, and wa-
ter storage data layers were found to be important
factors that are closely related with the occurrence of
landslides. Although the weight of the “distance from
the road” factor has a low value, the weight of layer
“<< 1 0 0 m” has a high value. Therefore, the landslide
susceptibility index very high is concentrated along the
roads. For the validation of the predicted result, the
landslide susceptibility map was compared with the
landslide inventory map containing 47 landslides. The
outcome shows that about 90% of these landslides fall
into very high susceptibility zones.
Keywords: landslide susceptibility map, bivariate statis-
tics, landslide susceptibility analysis (LSA), modified an-
alytic hierarchy process, Tinh Tuc town
1. Introduction
Tinh Tuc town is located in Non Nuoc Cao Bang Global
Geopark, Nguyen Binh district, Cao Bang province,
Northeast Vietnam. This area has a mixture of karst land-
scape with erosion – denudation landscape of mountains
and soil formed on the continental sedimentary rocks of
the Song Hien formation and granite intrusive rocks of
the Phia Oac complex. Tinh Tuc town is built along High-
way 34, the main road connecting Ha Giang and Cao
Bang. The combination of steep terrain, high construction
density, and annual heavy precipitation might be the main
reason for the high potential of landslide occurrence. In
2020, for example, due to the influence of rainstorms, sev-
eral major landslides were recorded at the Tinh Tuc town’s
hospital. These landslides destroyed Highway 34 and the
surrounding residential areas, and threatened the safety of
the town’s hospital located at the foot of the landslide.
Due to climate change, rain and floods occur abnormally;
thus, landslides tend to be a potential hazard. However,
no research project has focused on assessing the landslide
susceptibility of this town.
Landslide susceptibility is defined as the degree to
which terrain is likely to create slope failures. This sus-
ceptibility is often shown on a map. A landslide sus-
ceptibility map depicts areas where future landslides are
likely to occur by correlating some of the major factors
that cause landslides with the distribution of past slope
failures [1]. These maps serve as effective tools for con-
struction planning, preventing landslides, and minimizing
damage [2]. The increasing trend in landslide occurrence
in mountainous areas all over the world in recent decades
caused by climate change has alerted researchers to seek
more reliable methods for landslide prediction as well as
the construction of the warning systems [3].
Landslide susceptibility mapping is based on a com-
plex knowledge of slope shifts and the factors that control
them [4]. The reliability of the landslide susceptibility
maps depends on both the quantity and quality of avail-
able data, the scale of work, and the selection of appro-
priate modeling and analysis methods [5]. The process of
creating these maps involves several qualitative and quan-
titative approaches.
The qualitative method depends on expert knowledge.
The most common type of qualitative methods is sim-
ply using landslide inventories to identify sites with sim-
ilar geological and geomorphological properties that are

Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.4, 2021 521

© Fuji Technlogy Press Ltd.

Kien, N. T. et al.
(a)
Fig. 1. (a) Study area location and (b) landslide inventory map of Tinh Tuc town, Cao Bang.
susceptible to failure. Additionally, to increase objectiv-
ity, some qualitative methods have been modified to be-
come semi-quantitative with the introduction of weights
and ranks [6]. An example of this practice is the use of
the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) by Saaty [7] and the
weighted linear combination (WLC) by Ayalew et al. [6].
The results of these approaches are partially subjective
and vary depending on expert opinions, causing the loss
of objectivity in the assessment. The modified AHP (M-
AHP) method overcame this weakness when it removed
the subjectivity from the expert opinions in scoring fac-
tors. Therefore, M-AHP can be considered an objective
and quantitative assessment.
The quantitative methods are based on the numerical
expressions of the relationship between the control fac-
tors and landslides. There are two types of quantitative
methods: deterministic and statistical [8]. The determi-
nation method is able to describe the actual physical trig-
gering process of a landslide [9, 10]. The stability of the
slope is expressed as the factor of safety, which is the ra-
tio between the resisting forces to the gravitationally in-
duced downslope driving stress [11–13]. Statistical meth-
ods analyze the correlation between the control factors of
landslides and the distribution of landslides in the past.
Quantitative approaches can be used to reduce personal
bias during the weight assessment process. Consequently,
more realistic susceptibility maps can be generated from
an objective measurement of value. Numerous methods
of quantitative assessment have been applied effectively,
such as bivariate statistics, multivariate statistics, logistic
regression, fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks, and so
on.
This study aimed to combine, for the first time, the
modified AHP and bivariate statistical methods to de-
522
(b)
velop landslide susceptibility maps for Tinh Tuc town,
Cao Bang province. To do this, six factors, including
slope, weathering crust, water storage, geology, land use,
and distance from the road, were considered. The pre-
dicted landslide susceptibility map was then compared
with the actual landslide inventory map for validation.
2. General State of the Region
Figure 1 shows the location of the study area. Tinh
Tuc town is in Nguyen Binh district, Cao Bang province
in the north of Vietnam, about 300 km from the capital
Hanoi. The study area includes the whole of Tinh Tuc
town and surrounding areas. The altitude in the study area
ranges from 434 m to 1876 m. The population is mainly
distributed along Highway 34 running through the town,
where the terrain is relatively flat.
The field survey results from Project NDT 67/e-Asia19
show that the study area includes 47 landslides (Fig. 1).
The landslide with the smallest area is about 60 m2 (land-
slide numbers 22 and 29), the largest is 50,000 m2 (land-
slide number 14). Fig. 2 shows several photos of land-
slides along the national road Highway 34.
3. Materials and Methods
M-AHP is built on the foundation of the AHP. Many
researchers have used the AHP model in various appli-
cations and reported reasonable accuracy. However, it
is based on expert opinions and, thus, may be subject to
cognitive limitations with uncertainty and subjectivity [4].
Therefore, for solving the limitations of the conventional
Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.4, 2021
 Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Based on the Combination of Bivariate
Statistics and Modified Analytic Hierarchy Process Methods: A Case Study
of Tinh Tuc Town, Nguyen Binh District, Cao Bang Province, Vietnam
(a) Landslide number 1
 six classes, in each of which there is a certain number of
(b) Landslide number 2
(c) Landslide number 14
Fig. 2. Photos show some of the landslides along the na-
tional road (Highway 34).
AHP, an M-AHP is proposed by Nefeslioglu et al. [14]
and applied in the current research. The differences be-
tween the M-AHP and the conventional AHP could be:
The factor comparison matrix in the M-AHP model is
not according to expert opinion; the expert viewpoints in
M-AHP are only used to define the maximum scores for
each factor in order to prepare the factor score matrix; the
factor score values are normalized according to the max-
imum score of the factor; and, finally, the construction of
the factor comparison matrix is based on the modified im-
portance value scale [14].
For this reason (mapping susceptibility landslide), the
following approach was used. The main criterion for de-
Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.4, 2021
Fig. 3. An example of the distribution function of the
28 identified landslides by information classes [15].
termining the significance of the factor is the form of the
distribution function of the identified landslides accord-
ing to the information classes of the factor under consid-
eration. For example, Fig. 3 shows two possible func-
tion distributions. Factor 1, which has a large variance,
is less significant in comparison with factor 2. Note that
the distribution curve is plotted according to the number
of manifestations of landslide processes in each class of
the factor (for example, in the factor “geology,” there are
manifestations of landslide processes).
Thus, the standard deviation of the distribution func-
tion of the identified landslides by the information class
of the factor under consideration is the basis for deter-
mining the significance level (I). The formula to evaluate
the landslide susceptibility according to M-AHP method
is as follows [15]:
LSI = ∑ XiWi j
I1
= ∗W1 j
(I1 + I2 + I3 + · · · + In )
I2
+ ∗W2 j
(I1 + I2 + I3 + · · · + In )
In
+···+ ∗Wn j , . . (1)
(I1 + I2 + I3 + · · · + In )
where LSI = landslide susceptibility index; Wn j = weight
of class j of factor n; Xi = weight of factor i; Ii = sig-
nificance level of factor i (in that Ii was calculated to the
standard deviation of weight of classes j).
The bivariate methods, as described by van
Westen [16], are modified forms of qualitative map-
ping with the exception that weights are assigned based
upon the statistical relationship between past landslide
and various factor maps. The weighted value of the
classes used to categorize each parameter is determined
on the basis of landslide density in each individual
class. The bivariate methods include the frequency ratio
method, statistical index method, landslide susceptibil-
ity analysis (LSA), weight of evidence modeling and
certainty factor method. There is not much difference
between these methods [17]. Therefore, we use the LSA
523
Kien, N. T. et al.
method to evaluate landslides.
To evaluate the influence of each variable, weight-
ing factors are determined, which compare the calculated
density with the overall density in the area [18]. The fol-
lowing formula is used for the calculation:
 ∗  Six relevant factors are selected as the input for the
Ai j A∗
Wi j = 1000( fi j − f ) = 1000 − , . . (2)
Ai j A area, namely slope, weathering crust, water storage, land
where Wi j = weight given to a certain class i of param-
eter j; fi j = landslide density within the class i of pa-
rameter j; f = landslide density within the entire map;
A∗i j = area of landslides in certain class i of parame-
ter j; Ai j = area of certain class i of parameter j; A∗ =
total area of the landslide on the entire map; A = total
area of the entire map.
Data maps were prepared based on the causes and in-
fluencing factors of landslides. The causes of landslides
can be summarized into three main groups [19]:
1) Changing the shape and height of the slope. This
group includes the undercutting of the slope, caused
by both anthropogenic and natural activities due to the
undermining of the slope by constant water flows or
abrasion of the slope.
2) Changes in the structure, condition, and properties of
the soil and rocks that make up the slope. This group
combines processes that change the soil and rocks and
their physical and mechanical properties. This is phys-
ical and chemical weathering and the moistening of
soil and rocks by atmospheric and underground wa-
ters.
3) Additional load on the slope. These are various ad-
ditional loads, such as seismic, hydrodynamic, hydro-
static, artificial static, and dynamic action.
Varnes [20] explained that there are many factors
that should be considered to analyze landslide hazards.
Soeters and van Westen [21] divided those factors into five
groups described as follows:
(i) Geomorphological factors such as data on terrain
unit, geomorphological sub-unit, types of land-
slides.
(ii) Topographic factors such as data on the digital ter-
rain model, slope direction and length, and concavi-
ties.
(iii) Engineering geological factors such as data on
lithology, material sequences, the structure of geol-
ogy, and seismic acceleration.
(iv) Land use factors such as data on infrastructure de-
velopment (recent and older) and land use map (re-
cent and older).
(v) Hydrological factors such as data on the drainage,
catchment area, rainfall, temperature, evaporation,
and water table map.
524
As mentioned by Soeters and van Westen [21], it may
not be necessary to include all parameters, because it de-
pends on which ones are relevant for the study area. It also
provides optimum results to evaluate landslide hazards by
using few parameters.
models of landslide susceptibility mapping in the study
use, geology, and distance from the road.
Table 1 shows the weights of each class according to
the LSA method. From these weights, we can calculate
the weights of the classes using the M-AHP method (Ta-
ble 2).
The weight calculation is based on the standard devia-
tion identified in Table 2.
Factor maps were constructed from a variety of sources.
The slope map (Fig. 4) was constructed from a topo-
graphic map scale 1 : 10, 000, resulting from Project NDT
67/e-Asia19. Other maps (Figs. 5–8) have been derived
from the studies of the Institute of Geology (Thanh) [22].
The distance from road map (Fig. 9) was constructed us-
ing a buffer tool in the ArcGIS software.
4. Results
Overlapping the above six map layers according to
Eq. (1) creates a map of landslide susceptibility in the
Tinh Tuc area (Fig. 10).
Figures 10 and 11 show five areas with different de-
grees of landslide susceptibility:
• Area 1: LSI = −2.96÷(−1.72). This area has a very
low degree of landslide susceptibility.
• Area 2: LSI = −1.72 ÷ (−0.9). This area has a low
degree of landslide susceptibility.
• Area 3: LSI = −0.9 ÷ 0.09. This area has a moderate
degree of landslide susceptibility.
• Area 4: LSI = 0.09 ÷ 12.88. This area has a high
degree of landslide susceptibility.
• Area 5: LSI = 12.88 ÷ 14.35. This area has a very
high degree of landslide susceptibility.
The results show that the area with a very high level
of landslide susceptibility is located along the road. This
is consistent with the landslide distribution of the study
area. In terms of geology, the area with high and very
high susceptibility is mainly in the Song Hien and Dong
Dang formations, and the areas with low and very low
susceptibility are mainly in the Cao Bang complex, Pia
Oac complex, and Dong Dang formation.
For other factors, the areas with high and very high
landslide susceptibility are mainly distributed in agricul-
tural land and shrub areas; the slope angle is from 22.6◦
to 42.2◦ . The areas with moderate, low, and very low
landslide susceptibility are mainly distributed in the forest
and rock mountain and any slope angle.
Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.4, 2021
 Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Based on the Combination of Bivariate
Statistics and Modified Analytic Hierarchy Process Methods: A Case Study
of Tinh Tuc Town, Nguyen Binh District, Cao Bang Province, Vietnam

Table 1. Division of the main factors causing the activation of landslide processes in the Tinh Tuc region into information classes
and the weight of these classes.

Factor Classes Area of landslide [km2 ] Area [km2 ] Wi j

0–13,3 0.00 11.82 −2.84
13,3–22,6 0.02 9.78 −0.79
1. Slope [◦ ] 22,6–31,3 0.06 9.58 3.43
31,3–42,2 0.09 11.11 5.26
42,2–79,1 0.02 24.68 −2.03
Sum 0.19 66.97 3.03
Ferosialit 0.19 57.62 0.46
2. Weathering crust Sialferit 0.00 9.35 −2.84
Sum 0.19 66.97 − 2.38
Water level high 0.16 41.51 1.02
3. Water storage Water level low 0.03 25.46 −1.66
Sum 0.19 66.97 − 0.64
Bac Son Formation 0.03 8.11 0.86
Pia Oac Complex 0.00 2.98 −2.84
Q 0.01 2.53 1.12
4. Geology Song Hien Formation 0.14 37.10 0.94
Dong Dang Formation 0.00 10.44 −2.84
Cao Bang Complex 0.01 5.81 −1.12
Sum 0.19 66.97 0.08
Agricultural land 0.07 29.92 −0.50
Shrub tree 0.11 31.10 0.70
5. Land use Forest 0.01 2.20 1.71
Rock mountain 0.00 3.75 −2.84
Sum 0.19 66.97 −0.93
0–100 0.17 6.94 21.66
6. Distance from road [m] > 100 0.02 60.03 −2.50
Sum 0.19 66.97 19.15

Table 2. The calculated weights of the landslide factor (Wi ) in the Tinh Tuc region.

Factor (Xi ; i = 1, 2, . . . , 6) Standard deviation (σi ) 1/σi Significance level (I) Weight Xi
1. Slope [◦ ] 3.55 0.28 3 0.13
2. Weathering crust 2.33 0.43 4 0.17
3. Water storage 1.89 0.53 5 0.22
4. Geology 2.02 0.50 5 0.22
5. Land use 1.95 0.51 5 0.22
6. Distance from road [m] 17.09 0.06 1 0.04

5. Conclusion
Based on the results, the subjectivity of expert assess-
ments can be eliminated when assessing the landslide sus-
ceptibility of territories. In addition, the combination of
the AHP method and the bivariate statistical method is
relatively simple and provides accurate results when com-
pared to reality.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to Vietnam’s Ministry of Science and
Technology for their support. This work was supported by
NDT 67/e-Asia19.
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527
 Kien, N. T. et al.

Name:
Nguyen Trung Kien Name:
Nguyen Quoc Thanh
Affiliation:
Senior Researcher, Institute of Geological Sci-
Affiliation:
ences, Vietnam Academy of Science and Tech-
Senior researcher, Institute of Geological Sciences, Vietnam Academy of
nology
Science and Technology
Address:
Lane 84, Chua Lang Street, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam

Address:
Lane 84, Chua Lang Street, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam
Brief Career:
2009- Institute of Geological Sciences, Vietnam Academy of Science and
Technology
2014-2018 Ph.D. at Russian State Geological Prospecting University
Selected Publications:
• “Application of the method of analysis hierarchies (AHP) under the
regional landslide hazard assessment (for example area North-West of
Laocai in Vietnam),” Geoinformatika, No.2, pp. 53-66, 2017.
Academic Societies & Scientific Organizations:
• Vietnam Association of Engineering Geology and Environment
(VAEGE)

Name:
The Viet Tran

Affiliation:
Department of Civil Engineering, Thuyloi University
Address:
175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam

Name:
Vy Thi Hong Lien

Affiliation:
Senior Researcher, Institute of Geological Sciences, Vietnam Academy of
Science and Technology
Address:
Lane 84, Chua Lang Street, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam

Name:
Pham Le Hoang Linh

Affiliation:
Researcher, Institute of Ecology and Works protection
Address:
267 Chua Boc Street, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam

528 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.4, 2021

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