Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society ISSN 1598-0820

17(12): 5～16. (December, 2016) http://www.kges.or.kr DOI https://doi.org/10.14481/jkges.2016.17.12.5

Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Response of Water Pressure

and Slope Stability Within a Small Catchment: A Case Study
in Jinbu-Myeon, South Korea
Tran The Viet1) ･ Giha Lee†･ Sewook Oh2) ･ Minseok Kim3)

Received: July 19th, 2016; Revised: July 22nd, 2016; Accepted: October 27th, 2016

ABSTRACT : This study aims to assess the influence of rainfall patterns on shallow landslides initiation. Doing so, five typical rainfall
patterns with the same cumulative amount and intensity components comprising Advanced (A1 and A2), Centralized (C), and Delayed
(D1 and D2) were designed based on a historical rainstorm event in Jinbu. Mt area. Those patterns were incorporated as the hydrological
conditions into the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability Model (TRIGRS) to assess their influences
on groundwater pressure and changes in the stability of the slope. The results revealed that not only the cumulative rainfall thresholds
necessary to initiate landslides, but also the rate at which the factor of safety decreases and the time required to reach the critical
state, are governed by rainfall patterns. The sooner the peak rainfall intensity, the smaller the cumulative rainfall threshold, and the
shorter the time until landslide occurrence. Left-skewed patterns were found to have a greater effect on landslide initiation. Specifically,
among five rainfalls, pattern (A1) produced the most critical state. The severity of response was followed by patterns A2, C, D1,
and D2. Our conclusion is that rainfall patterns have a significant effect on the cumulative rainfall threshold, the build-up of groundwater
pressure, and the occurrence of shallow landslides.
Keywords : Landslide, Rainfall pattern, Rainfall threshold, Groundwater pressure, TRIGRS

1. Introduction increasing as more development take place on sites close to

Shallow landslides are generally the most common natural
disaster in South Korea and often initiate into destructive
debris flows. The natural slopes in this country are often
quite steep (30° – 60° tilt angles) and overlain by a thin
layer of weathered soil, (often less than 2 m thick) (Lee et
al., 2008; Park et al., 2013a). Therefore, shallow landslides,
in which slippage occurs at the boundary between bedrock
and cover soil and are typically induced by intense rainfall
(Park et al., 2013a). As such, this type of landslide is the
main sediment-related disaster in the mountainous regions
of South Korea (Lee et al., 2008; Kim et al., 2014). The
occurrence of major landslides has been related to typhoons
and short-term torrential rainfall events during the summer
from June to August (Chae & Kim, 2012; Yune et al., 2013;
Kim et al., 2010; Lee et al., 2012c; Park et al., 2013b).
Therefore, with unfavorable mountainous terrains combining
with weather conditions, the risk to lives and properties is
steep slopes.
The climate of South Korea is typical of the Indian Ocean
monsoon with pronounced seasonal rainfall (Park et al., 2013a).
The average annual precipitation in Korea is around 1,245
mm (1974 to 2003), and two-thirds of which occurs during
the summer. Jung et al. (2002) studied 46 years of daily
precipitation in the period from 1956 to 2000; and confirmed
that extreme precipitation events had increased significantly
in South Korea. Examining 187 stations around Korea during
the period from 1973 to 2005, Chang & Kwon (2007) found
that the number of days in which precipitation exceeded 50
mm and 30 mm rose at all stations. The increase in annual
precipitation is significantly associated with the increase in
heavy rainfall events during the summer. Such severe rain
storms often result in serious damage, and their frequency
and intensity have increased in South Korea (Kim, 2012).
In Korea, there are no reported cases in which slope
failures were triggered by earthquakes. Instead, the majority

1) Department of Construction & Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kyungpook National University

Department of Civil Engineering, Thuyloi University, Hanoi, Vietnam
† Department of Construction & Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kyungpook National University (Corresponding Author : leegiha@knu.ac.kr)
2) Department of Construction & Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kyungpook National University
3) International Water Resources Research Institute, Chungnam National University
of landslides are triggered by intense rainfall during the rainy primarily on the geological conditions and the characteristics
season (Lee & Hencher, 2014). Rainfall is the most commonly of rainfall in the study area, as explained in later section.
recognized triggering factor for a landslide (Rahimi et al., However, a rainfall event of short duration and high intensity
2011), and although the significance of rainfall infiltration which reflects the natural condition of Korea was sought as a
in causing landslides is widely acknowledged, the role of priority. The influences of rainstorm patterns on groundwater
antecedent rainfall is not yet fully resolved (Mukhlisin & pressure variations, changes in the stability conditions and
Taha, 2012). Specific cases from different regions produce cumulative rainfall threshold for landslide initiation were
differing conclusions (Rahardjo et al., 2007). However, the analyzed by using the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-
general principle of rainfall-induced landslides has been based Regional Slope-stability Model (TRIGRS) (Baum et
explained by Ng & Shi (1998), Tsai & Wang (2010), and al., 2008) for the Mt. Jinbu area in Korea. This study site
Viet et al. (2015), Viet et al. (2016). As rainwater infiltrates suffered severely from landslides and debris flow in 2006.
the unsaturated zone of the soil slope, it leads to the increase
in pore water pressures and consequently reduces the shear
strength of the soil, and when the shear strength at the
2. Application of TRIGRS for Rainfall-
potential slip surface is exceeded, slope failure will occur. Induced Shallow Landslide Prediction
However, prediction of the location and timing of rainfall-
Most previous studies on the influence of rainfall pattern
induced shallow landslides remains a difficult task, as slippage
on landslide initiation were for a typical slope cross-section
is controlled by various specific spatial and climatic factors
(Tsai, 2008; Kim et al., 2012) or a soil column (Jia et al.,
(Lee & Park, 2014).
2009). In this study, we evaluated this effect for a whole
The temporal patterns of storms are determined by the
landscape using TRIGRS. The program is a physical based
arrangement of their rainfall intensity histograms (de Lima
coupled hydro-mechanical slope stability assessment model.
& Singh, 2002). Although rainfall intensity has been identified
It computes transient groundwater pressure variations, and
as the main cause of rainfall-induced slope failure, the temporal
attendant changes in the factor of safety over large areas,
pattern or spatial distribution of the antecedent rainfall has
as a result of rainfall (Baum et al., 2008). Depending of the
not yet received much attention (Rahimi et al., 2011). Storm
characteristics of the site, the model can be saturated or
patterns are important because they are one of the major
unsaturated with infinite-depth or finite-depth of the basal
factors determining the shape of the runoff hydrograph (de
boundary (Fig. 1). The infiltration model in TRIGRS for
Lima & Singh, 2002), and thus, the occurrence of shallow
initially wet conditions are adopted based on the linearized
landslides may not be adequately understood if the rainfall
solution of the Richards equation as described by Iverson
pattern is not taken into account (Tsai & Wang, 2010). Ng &
(2000) and the extensions of Baum et al. (2002). The stability
Tung (2001) studied the effect of rainfall patterns on changes
of the slope is evaluated for transient pressure head at multiple
in pore-water pressure on slopes and found a significant
correlation between these two factors. Varying patterns of
antecedent rainfall alter the rate which the factor of safety
decreases, as well as the time corresponding to the Fs, and
the value of Fs itself. Therefore, a better understanding of how
rainfall patterns can influence the build-up of groundwater
pressure, and the likelihood of slope instabilities, is essential.
In this study, five typical rainfall patterns with the same
cumulative rainfall amount and intensity components were
designed based on a historical rainstorm that caused severe
landslides in the study area. These comprise the Advanced
(A1 and A2), the Centralized (C), and Delayed (D1 and D2)
Fig. 1. Graph showing the boundary conditions assumed in TRIGRS
patterns. Selection of the historical rainstorm was based (Baum et al., 2008)

6 >> Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Response of Water Pressure and Slope Stability Within a Small Catchment: A Case Study in Jinbu-Myeon, South Korea
depths Z by using the infinite slope stability model. Like
other physical-based models, TRIGRS is subjected to limitations
imposed by simplifying assumptions, approximations, and
other shortcomings in the underlying theories (Baum et al.,
2008). More details about the model are clearly described
in the studies of Baum et al. (2010).
In this study, the unsaturated with finite-depth of basal
boundary is selected regarding the characteristics of the study
area. This approach treats the soil as a two-layer system
consisting of a saturated zone with a capillary fringe above
the water table, overlain by an unsaturated zone that extends
upwards to the ground surface (Raia et al., 2014) (Fig. 1).
For modeling the problem related to rainfall-induced
pore-pressure head in sloping ground, TRIGRS utilizes the
coordinate transformation defined by Iverson (2000) to
upgrade the 1-D form of the Richards’ equation (Eq. 1).
Four parameters including the saturated moisture content
(   ), the residual moisture content (   ), the fitting parameter
to the soil water characteristic curve (  ), and the hydraulic
conductivity (  ) are used to approximate the infiltration
process as one dimensional, vertical flow. The infiltrating
water accumulates at the base of the unsaturated zone and
thus raises the water table (Baum et al., 2008).

 
 
 
 
  
 
cos 

  
  (1)
where  is the ground-water pressure head;  is a
function of hydraulic conductivity depending on the value
of  ;  is the volumetric water content; t is time, and
  cos  is the vertical coordinate direction (positive
downward) and depth below the ground surface, where z is
the slope-normal coordinate direction (also positive downward),
and  is the slope angle (Fig. 1).
Fig. 2. Framework for applying TRIGRS to rainfall-induced landslide problem
Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society Vol. 17, Issue 12, December 2016 >> 7
Unlike other previous approaches evaluating the influence
of rainfall pattern without considering the effect of overland
flow, TRIGRS uses a simplified method to route surface
runoff from cells that have excess surface water to adjacent
downslope cells when the precipitation and runoff supplied
to a cell exceeds its infiltrability (Baum et al., 2008). The
purpose of this simulation is to prevent the loss of excess
precipitation that cannot infiltrate at the cell of origin and
to improve the performance of the model in urbanized or
other areas where pavements and other impervious surfaces
exist (Baum et al., 2008). The saturated hydraulic conductivity,
Ks, generally equals the infiltrability, I, for saturated and
tension-saturated soils (Iverson, 2000). In TRIGRS, it is
assumed that the infiltration I (the sum of the precipitation
P and the runoff from upslope cells Ru) for a cell cannot
exceed its saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks. Thus, under
such conditions, runoff would occur. In both cases, the amount
of infiltration is simulated based on the following assumptions:
         ≤ 
       
(2)
Thus, runoff Rd is calculated using the following equation:
            ≥ 
         
(3)
The slope stability analysis in TRIGRS is calculated for
transient pressure heads at multiple depths Z using a simple
infinite slope stability model to calculate the Fs value on
a cell-by-cell basis. In such analysis, the failure of an infinite
slope is characterized by the ratio of the resisting friction
on the basal to the gravitationally induced downslope basal
driving stress. This ratio is calculated for each grid cell at
an arbitrary depth, Z, by:
tan ′  ′      tan ′
     
tan  sin cos 
where c’ (kN/m ) is the effective soil cohesion;  (kN/m )
2 2
is the apparent cohesion provided by tree roots;  ′ (degree)
is the soil’s effective friction angle;  (m) is the pressure
head as a function of depth Z and time t;  (degree) is the
3 3
slope angle, and  (kN/m ) and  (kN/m ) are the unit
weights of water and soil, respectively. Failure is predicted
when Fs < 1, and stability is maintained when Fs ≥ 1. The
state of limiting equilibrium exists when Fs = 1. Fig. 2
illustrates the framework for applying TRIGRS to a rainfall-
induced landslide problem, further theoretical details of the
TRIGRS model can be found in its open-file reports (Baum
et al., 2008).
3. Study Area and TRIGRS Input Data
The research site is a small watershed that locates in
Jinbu-Myeon, Pyeongchang-gun, Kangwon Prefecture, South
Korea. The coordinate of the center of the area is situated
at 37°37ʹ49ʹʹ N, 128°33ʹ29ʹʹ E (Fig. 3). Jinbu has a subtropical
climate with year-round precipitation. Rainfall-triggered debris
flows, and shallow soil slides are the most abundant types
of landslides in this area (Lee et al., 2012b). In particular,
Fig. 3. Location of the study area (Kim et al., 2015b)
8 >> Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Response of Water Pressure and Slope Stability Within a Small Catchment: A Case Study in Jinbu-Myeon, South Korea
between 26 June and 29 July 2006, very intense precipitation
episodes with the total rainfall amount and maximum rainfall
intensity were approximately 500 mm/day and 45 mm/h;
(4)
respectively (Korea Meteorological Administration) caused
many landslides of the flow type in the cover soil layer of
the slopes in this region. As the rainiest area in Korea, Mt.
Jinbu is most often affected by landslides; therefore, it is
considered a suitable site for evaluating the frequency and
distribution of such disaster (Lee et al., 2012c).
3.1 Geomorphology
The surface of the study area is illustrated by a 1-m
resolution elevation map (Fig. 4) which based on a digital
elevation map (1:5,000) from the National Geographic
Information Institute in the Republic of Korea. This map
was then used to interpolate the slope map and the flow
directions map using ArcMap program to compile the input
files for TRIGRS model.
3.2 Soil Thickness
A survey of 117 landslides across Korea, triggered by
Typhoon Rusa in 2002 and Maemi in 2003 showed that the
majority of slips involved sliding along the boundaries between
soil and bedrock (Lee et al., 2008; Park et al., 2013b). The
determination of soil thickness is of particular importance, as
it influences various engineering properties, including hydraulic
conductivity, transmissivity, and the angle of internal friction
 Fig. 4. Digital elevation model (Kim et al., 2015b) Fig. 5. Map of soil thickness (Kim et al., 2015b)

of the soils. Thus, the accuracy of shallow landslide prediction 3.3 Geological Conditions and Soil Engineering
can be improved by incorporating soil parameters that fully Parameters
represent the effects of soil thickness (Kim et al., 2015a).
The field survey shows that this study area is covered
However, mapping the thickness of the topsoil layer is difficult,
only by well-weathered granite. In the larger scale, Imgye
costly, and time-consuming, especially for large areas with
Granite, which is an extensive intrusion of granitoids formed
complex topography. Therefore, soil thickness information
during the Daebo Orogeny, is distributed across the majority
from landslide-prone areas is scarce in reality.
of the study area (almost 77% of the total area) (Lee et al.,
In the present study, the dynamic cone penetrometer (25
2012a) as shown in Fig. 3. All of the previous geological
mm diameter with 60° tip angle), also known as the knocking
units were intensely deformed as a result of this intense
pole test was used to measure the soil thickness. Total of 125
orogenic event (Park et al., 2013b). The soil material mostly
tests with the intervals from 10 to 15 meters were conducted
comprises granite residuum, with well-drained soils covering
on the site at typical locations. The data related to the soil
around 84% of the study area (Lee et al., 2012c).
depth and its corresponding location is recorded using a
For the properties of the colluvium, soil samples were
real-time kinematic – global positioning system (RTK-GPS:
collected at locations 1 m apart in the detritical-colluvial soil
GPT-7001L, Topcon, Tokyo, Japan). The soil depth map
layer and bedrock soil layer. Unlike the typical triaxial shear
(Fig. 5) for the whole area was then interpolated using data
testing that is accomplished by increasing the shear stress,
from those test by the ordinary kriging method with linear
the consolidated drained (CD) test approximates conditions
variogram technique. More detail about the procedure to
during rainfall-induced failure by maintaining a constant shear
build the soil thickness map is described in the study of
stress while reducing the effective stress (Kim et al., 2015a).
Kim et al. (2015b).
Therefore, the CD triaxial test was conducted to obtain the
shear strength parameters of the soil cover layer because

Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society Vol. 17, Issue 12, December 2016 >> 9
shallow landslides are triggered by elevated pore pressure, which
decreases the effective normal stress rather than increasing
the shear stress (Anderson & Riemer, 1995). Hydraulic con-
ductivity (Ks) also was conducted in the laboratory based
on the “falling head” test.
Together with the soil shear strength parameters, the hydraulic
conductivity, dry and saturated soil densities, and volumetric
water content were also defined. Two input parameters for
the unsaturated flow including saturated volumetric water
content (θs) and residual volumetric water content θr, were
determined using the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC)
test. The SWCC (Fig. 6) was defined by fitting the van
Genuchten formula, the saturated and residual volumetric water
contents thus determined were 49.6% and 15.0%, respectively
(Table 1).
Other input parameters for TRIGRS, including the diffusivity
(D0) and the steady infiltration rate (IZ) were estimated from
empirical references as their values can vary widely and
depend on many factors. Iverson (2000) identified D0 as the
maximum characteristic diffusivity, given by the ratio of
saturated conductivity (Ksat) to the minimum change in
volumetric water content per unit change in a pressure head
(C0). Owing to the fact that it is difficult to test for D0,
several studies have defined the range of D0 as between 5
and 500 times that of the hydraulic conductivity (Baum et
al., 2010; Kim et al., 2010; Park et al., 2013a). In this study,
based on the hydraulic properties of the soil, D0 was assumed
to be 100 times the value of Ksat. The value of Iz can be
approximated by defining the average precipitation rate needed
to maintain the initial conditions in the days and months
preceding an event (Baum et al., 2010). However, for simplicity,
Iz was assumed to be 100 times less than Ksat, as suggested
by Park et al., 2013a) based on the summer time conditions
in Korea.
3.4 Groundwater Table
No data were collected documenting the depth of the
groundwater table before the landslide occurred. In the natural
hillslopes of Korea, groundwater commonly lies within the
very deep soil around the mountain tops (Kim et al., 2013).
However, most conservative studies accept the assumption
that the groundwater table coincides with the depth of the
cover soil layer under initial conditions (Kim et al., 2010;
Kim et al., 2013; Park et al., 2013a). In this study, as the
landslide occurred during the rainy season, and there was
antecedent rainfall of 238 mm fell within more than one
day before the main rainstorm. Therefore, it is reasonable
to assume that the groundwater table was at the depth of
the bedrock surface (Fig. 5) at the initial condition.

3.5 Rainfall and Rainfall Patterns

Several researchers have studied the influence of rainstorm

patterns on the stability of slopes (Ng & Tung, 2001; de
Lima & Singh, 2002; Tsai, 2008; Jia et al., 2009). These
studies have generally examined six typical rainfall patterns
Fig. 6. Soil water characteristic curve in the study area
that might represent the reality, namely: Advanced (A1 and
Table 1. Soil properties determined by triaxial test

Soil parameter Unit Value

3
Saturated soil density kN/m 17.4
Cohesion c kPa 1.6
Internal friction angle  (°) 36.5
Hydraulic conductivity Ksat m/s 1.389 E-05
Diffusivity D0 m2/s-1 100 × Ksat
Steady infiltration rate Iz m/s 0.01 × Ksat
Saturated volumetric water contents   (%) 49.6
Residual volumetric water contents   (%) 15.0
-1
Fitting parameter  (m ) 1.0 Fig. 7. Typical representative rainfall patterns

10 >> Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Response of Water Pressure and Slope Stability Within a Small Catchment: A Case Study in Jinbu-Myeon, South Korea
A2), Centralized (C), Delayed (D1 and D2) and Uniformed Meteorological Administration). Fig. 8 shows the measured
patterns (Fig. 7). Among those patterns, Advanced types have 30-min rainfall intensity in the study area before, during,
peak intensity during the early part of the event; Centralized and after the sliding event occurred.
type has relatively high intensity in the center while Delayed Five representative patterns were created by rearranging
pattern has the peak intensity at the end of the event. the histogram for this historical rainstorm event, so, each has
However, a problem persists with the application of these the same cumulative rainfall amount as well as the intensity
patterns in that they may not well represent the actual rainfall components. Figures 9 to 13 show all five of these created
patterns (Rahimi et al., 2011). Thus, the simulated results patterns, based on the real selected 2006 rainfall event. It
could represent an over- or underestimation because these can be noted that the five representative rainfall patterns have
linearly-distributed patterns do not reflect the actual conditions, the same 16 h-duration and the same maximum rainfall
in particular for rainstorms with extreme intensity and short intensity of 45 mm per 30 minutes as the real event. For
duration. Moreover, these patterns may lead to extreme values each pattern, the intensity components have simply been
for cumulated rainfall, and therefore, result in overprediction rearranged so that they look like the corresponding typical
in the simulation. Hence, to represent the field conditions, rainfall patterns. Thus, the advanced patterns (A1 and A2)
it is necessary to examine the actual rainstorm patterns. In
this study, a historical rainstorm event is selected as a basis
for the simulations, and five new representative rainstorm
patterns were then created by rearranging the base pattern.
Rainfall occurs primarily during the summer, from June
to September, as part of the East Asian monsoon (Kim et
al., 2015a). Jinbu, in the Pyeongchang District, lies within
one of the rainiest areas in Korea. The typical soil cover is
shallow (less than 2 m) across the study area. Consequently,
rainfalls with short duration and high intensity often cause
Fig. 8. Real rainfall pattern
considerable variations in groundwater pressure at shallow
depths. Additionally, reviewing large landslides on natural
terrain in Korea since 1990, Kim & Chae (2009) concluded
that landslide occurrence depended more on rainfall intensity
than rainfall duration. Also, it should be noted that TRIGRS
is more efficient at determining groundwater pressure variation
earlier during a storm. Through events of longer duration,
estimation of groundwater pressure may be erroneous once
lateral flow begins in response to the storm (Baum et al.,
2008). Therefore, in this study, a short-lived rainstorm event
Fig. 9. Advanced rainfall pattern (A1)
that resulted in severe landslides in the study area is selected
for analyzing.
The 2006 rainstorm event was selected by reviewing all
the rainfall-triggered landslide events in the study area based
on the above conditions. The chosen rainstorm began at
00:00 on 15 July 2006 and ended at 16:00 on the same day.
Due to this event, more than 1200 shallow landslides with
many debris flows were recorded. The total rainfall amount
and maximum rainfall intensity of the triggering event were
almost 500 mm/day and about 45 mm/h, respectively (Korea Fig. 10. Advanced rainfall pattern (A2)

Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society Vol. 17, Issue 12, December 2016 >> 11

Fig. 11. Centralized rainfall pattern (C)
Fig. 12. Delayed rainfall pattern (D1)
Fig. 13. Delayed rainfall pattern (D2)
have high intensity during the early stages of the event, the
centralized pattern has the maximum intensity falling in the
middle of the total rainfall duration, and the delayed patterns
(D1 and D2) have high intensities at the end of the event.
In addition, as can be seen, the real rainfall pattern (Fig. 8)
is quite similar to pattern D1. Therefore it is also considered
to analyze in some cases for comparison.
3.6 Forest Properties and the Role of Tree Root
Cohesion on Soil Reinforcement
Trees can have significant effects on the development of
shallow landslides during severe storm events in steep, forested
watersheds (Kim et al., 2013; Schwarz et al., 2013). Tree
roots are inherently necessary for soil to build up and stay
in place in steep hollows (D’Odorio & Fagherazzi, 2003).
12 >> Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Response of Water Pressure and Slope Stability Within a Small Catchment: A Case Study in Jinbu-Myeon, South Korea
Landslide scars often reveal broken root tendrils, suggesting
that the tensile strength of the roots was mobilized during
failure of the ground (Schmidt et al., 2001). Tree roots are
known to reinforce soil by increasing soil shear strength.
However, Soil samples collected for laboratory testing often
do not reflect the root cohesion in situ (Kim et al., 2015b)
and few studies have quantified soil reinforcement by tree
roots because of some experimental difficulties (Kim et al.,
2010). Quantitatively analyzing the soil reinforcement caused
by roots has many challenges because root structures are
easy to be destroyed during the assessment.
Pyeongchang is a forested area, comprising 37.1% of
coniferous forest, 39.7% of deciduous forest, and 23.2% of
mixed forest cover. The crown coverage was mostly medium
or dense, and the study area was covered by Korean pine
(Pinus koraiensis) and Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi), which
were two common plantation species of Korea (Kim et al.,
2011). The influence of tree roots is taken into account in
this study by simply adding an apparent cohesion to the soil
strength. This apparent cohesion is defined based on the
condition in reality that the entire area was stable before the
rainstorm event, and in the simulation by the non-existence
of unstable cells (cells with Fs <1) in the initial conditions.
By applying a trial-and-error method, in the TRIGRS model,
the total cohesion (soil cohesion + root cohesion) was
increased until there were no unstable cells in the Fs map
during the initial conditions. In this way, the lower limit
root cohesion was found to be 3.0 kPa. Although more studies
should be conducted to support this conclusion, however, as
the root cohesion value in this study only helps the predicted
stability maps to be more realistic, and it is also not the
primary objective. Therefore, the assumption of tree root
cohesion above can be accepted.
4. Results and Discussion
TRIGRS model is applied to analyze five selected rainfall
patterns with the same background conditions. The results
of these models are evaluated to assess the influence of
different rainstorm patterns on the response of the pressure
head, the stability conditions, and the cumulative rainstorm
threshold of the soil cover layer in the study area.
4.1 Evaluating the Effect of Rainfall Patterns on
the Pressure Head
In this step, pressure head results calculated by TRIGRS,
corresponding to the five selected rainstorm patterns were
used for evaluation. The pressure head values at the depth
corresponding to the minimum factor of safety for each cell
on the six maps (including the real pattern) at all time step
were analyzed. In this case, average soil thickness value over
the entire area (0.86 m) were used as a reference value for
comparing. Fig. 14 illustrates the change in the percentage
of cells that had a greater pressure head than the average
soil thickness with time, from the six different rainstorm
patterns. As can be seen, under the influence of any rainfall,
the pressure head increased as time elapsed, and except the
Delayed rainfall pattern D2, all other patterns had almost
the same start and end values. However, the time to reach
the maximum value and their variation under each scenario
differed significantly.
Advanced patterns A1 and A2 reached the highest percentage
of cells in the shortest time of around 8 hr. For the centralized
pattern, the time was much longer, taking around 12 hr to
reach the critical condition. The time required for pattern
D1 to arrive at the peak value was almost 16 hr, which was
equal to the total rainfall duration. Among all five studied
cases, only the delayed pattern D2 had a smaller number
of cells with pressure head larger than 0.86 m. The response
of pressure head on the real rainfall is quite similar to its
response on pattern D1 as the two rainfalls are fairly common.
Therefore, the conclusion is that rainfall pattern with low
intensity during the early stage of the duration may generate
the least effect.
Fig. 14. Percentages of cells with the pressure head larger than
0.86 m, compared with rainfall duration
Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society Vol. 17, Issue 12, December 2016 >> 13
4.2 Evaluating the Influence of Rainfall Patterns
on Stability Conditions
In order to assess the effect of rainfall patterns on the
occurrence of shallow landslides, Fs maps corresponding to
the five studied rainstorm patterns those simulated by TRIGRS
were evaluated and analyzed. Figure 15 illustrates changes
in the average Fs values under the five studied patterns and
the real scenario with rainfall duration. As can be seen from
this figure, a similar trend to that observed in the pressure
head variation could be identified in the Fs analysis. The
advanced patterns (A1 and A2) are considered the most
critical cases as they need the shortest time to attain the
smallest values, with 5 hr for A1 and 8 hr for A2. Following
this, the centralized (C) (12 h), and then delayed (D1 (14h)) and
D2 (16 h) patterns reached minimum values in progressively
longer period.
Figure 16 represents the changes in the proportion of
unstable cells in the Fs maps, corresponding to the five
selected rainstorm patterns and the real pattern with rainfall
duration. All five cases produce almost the same numbers
Fig. 15. Relationship between average Fs and rainfall duration
Fig. 16. Relationship between the percentage of unstable cells
and rainfall duration
of unstable cells at the end of the rainfall event. However,
the time to reach these maximum numbers differs significantly.
Fig. 17 illustrates the time on which the percentage of
unstable cells reach maximum. As can be seen, the time
corresponding to each pattern is quite close to the occurrence
of its peak rainfall intensity. Therefore, depending on the
ratio between the maximum rainfall intensity and the saturated
hydraulic conductivity of soil (Ksat) (it is about 2.5 times
in this case), there might be a correlation between the time
when the maximum rainfall intensity occurs and when the
percentage of unstable cell is the largest. So, one can conclude
that shallow landslide is strongly impacted not only by the
amount and duration of the rain but also its pattern or the
variation of rainfall intensity with time.
4.3 Evaluation of the Influence of Rainfall Patterns
on the Cumulative Rainstorm Threshold
Under the same background conditions, the cumulative
rainfall thresholds corresponding to the five studied rainstorm
patterns were also defined in this study. By calculating the
Fig. 17. Graph showing the time to reach the maximum percentage
of unstable cells
Fig. 18. Graph showing the cumulative rainfall threshold of different
rainfall patterns
14 >> Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Response of Water Pressure and Slope Stability Within a Small Catchment: A Case Study in Jinbu-Myeon, South Korea
cumulative rainfall for the time at which the maximum
number of unstable cells was reached, or when the highest
percentage of cells had a pressure head greater than 0.86
m, the critical cumulative rainfall thresholds from the five
representative rainstorm patterns were determined (Fig. 18).
From this, it can be clearly observed that the cumulative
threshold of A1 is the smallest, followed by A2, C, D1, and
D2. Thus, of all five rainstorm patterns, advanced or left-
skewed rainfall patterns represent the greatest threat to the
stability of slopes in the study area.
This finding can be explained by the variation of the
infiltration capacity of soil with time as it tends to decrease
as the rainfall advances (Jia et al., 2009). When the surface
layer is dry, the infiltration capacity is high due to the steep
matric suction gradient. Therefore, most of the rainfall will
infiltrate into the soil to form underground flow, and the
exceeded part will form runoff. So, in scenarios with a large
early peak (pattern A1 and A2) rainfall intensity, more water
can infiltrate into the ground surface, and less runoff is
formed. This allows more critical groundwater pressure head
and slope stability condition to develop. On the contrary,
for other patterns (C, D1 and D2) as the infiltration capacity
reduces with time, so it is likely that more runoff will be
created.
5. Conclusion
In this study, the initially unsaturated watershed in Jinbu.
Mt subjected to different rainfall conditions was investigated.
Five typical rainstorm patterns were constructed by rearranging
the intensities of a real critical rainstorm event that occurred
in 2006. The analysis results indicate that the groundwater
pressure head and the factor of safety are strongly connected
with the rainfall pattern. The sooner the peak rainfall intensity
occurs, the smaller the cumulative rainfall threshold, and the
shorter the time until landslide occurrence. Left-skewed rainfall
patterns were found to have a greater effect on the build-up
of groundwater pressure head and landslide occurrence; they
also produce the smallest rainfall duration thresholds for
landslide initiation. Moreover, with the increase in the
cumulative rainfall amount, the corresponding groundwater
pressure head, and Fs values reduce to a constant level.
With a constant rainfall amount and duration, the advanced
storm pattern A1 is the most critical of the five analyzed cases.
It has the highest potential to induce significant groundwater
pressure head and ultimate landslide occurrence. This conclusion
can be explained by Ng & Tung (2001), is that the high
hydraulic gradient induced by the advanced storm pattern
during the first several hours of intense rainfall results in
a higher infiltration rate than for the other storm patterns.
Thus, predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslide problems,
rainfall amounts and durations are not the only controlling
factors, the rainstorm pattern also plays a significant role in
determining the timing and extent of the landslide. As such,
rainstorm intensity patterns should be considered in any
rainfall-induced landslide modeling problems.
This study also shows that there might be a relationship
between the time of maximum rainfall intensity and the
time when the unstable area is the largest. However, as only
one scenario about the ratio between the maximum rainfall
intensity and the hydraulic conductivity is considered. Also,
our simulated results may be affected by limitations imposed
by simplifying assumptions (infiltration is in 1D), shortcoming
in the underlying theories (slope stability assessment is based
on infinite slope model), and uncertainties related to the
initial conditions as well as the input data. Therefore, more
studies are needed to support the above conclusion. In
addition, the uncertainty assessment and data assimilation
with observed data are our next research plans.
Acknowledgement
This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment
(MOE) as “GAIA Program-2014000 540005”.
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