EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS

Earth Surf. Process. Landforms (2016)

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Published online in Wiley Online Library
(wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/esp.4050

Prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in

the Loess Plateau, Yan’an, China, using the TRIGRS
model
Jianqi Zhuang,1 Jianbing Peng,1* Gonghui Wang,2 Javed Iqbal,3 Ying Wang,1 Wei Li,1 Qiang Xu4 and Xinghua Zhu1
1
College of Geological Engineering and Surveying of Chang’an University/Key Laboratory of Western China, Mineral Resources and
Geological Engineering, Xi’an, 710054, China
2
Research Centre on Landslides, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
3
Department of Earth Sciences, Abbottabad University of Sciences and Technology, Abbottabad, Pakistan
4
College of Environment and Civil Engineering of Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China

Received 29 April 2015; Revised 8 September 2016; Accepted 8 September 2016

*Correspondence to: J. B. Peng, College of Geological Engineering and Surveying of Changan University/Key Laboratory of Western ChinaMineral Resources and
Geological Engineering, Xi’an 710054, China. E-mail: rockfans09@163.com

ABSTRACT: In this work, a transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability model (TRIGRS) was implemented in
a case study of Yan’an City, Northwest China. In this area, widespread shallow landslides were triggered by the 12 July 2013 excep-
tional rainstorm event. A high-resolution DEM, soil parameters from in-situ and laboratory measurements, water table depths, the
maximum depth of precipitation infiltration and rain-gauge-corrected precipitation of the event, were used as inputs in the TRIGRS
model. Shallow landslides triggered on the same day were used to evaluate the modeling results. The summarized results are as
follows: (i) The characteristics and distribution of thirty-five shallow landslides triggered by the 12 July 2013 rainfall event were
identified in the study area and all were classified as shallow landslides with the maximum depth, area and volume less than 3 m,
200 m2 and 1000 m3, respectively, (ii) Four intermediate factor of safety (FS) maps were generated using the TRIGRS model to repre-
sent the scenarios 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours after the storm event. The area with FS < 1 increased with the rainfall duration. The percent-
age of the area with FS < 1 was 0.2%, 3.3%, 3.8% and 5.1% for the four stages, respectively. Twenty-four hours after the rainstorm,
TRIGRS predicted that 1255 grid cells failed, which is consistent with the field data. (iii) TRIGRS generated more satisfactory results at
a given precipitation threshold than SINMAP, which is ideal for landslide hazard zoning for land-use planning at the regional scale.
Comparison results showed that TRIGRS is more useful for landslide prediction for a certain precipitation threshold, also in the
regional scale. (iv) Analysis of the responses of loess slope prone to slope failure after different precipitation scenarios revealed that
loess slopes are particularly sensitive to extended periods of heavy precipitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KEYWORDS: shallow landslide; landslide prediction; TRIGRS model; precipitation infiltration; Loess Plateau

Introduction
Loess is a sediment formed by the accumulation of wind-blown
fine sand and clay deposits, and in general, is found in arid and
semi-arid regions. In China, loess covers a total area of approx-
imately 631 000 km2, which is 4.4% of the total land area (Liu,
1985). Most of the loess deposits are concentrated in the Loess
Plateau, which has an area of approximately 430 000 km2. The
plateau is located in the central sector of the Yellow River
Basin, with thickness of loess deposits ranging from a few
meters to more than 300 m. Typically, loess is characterized
by the presence of macro-pores, vertical joints, loose texture
and sensitivity to high pore-water content, which makes it
prone to landslides (Derbyshire, 2001; Dijkstra, 2001; Xu
et al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2009; Zhang and Liu, 2010). One
third of the landslides occurring annually in China is in the
Loess Plateau, resulting in loss of life, damage to gas and oil
pipelines, destruction of roads and railways, and reduction of
arable land (Li et al., 2007; Xu et al., 2011; Wang et al.,
2014). Rainfall is the main triggering factor of shallow land-
slides in the Loess Plateau. Field investigations have revealed
the occurrence of around 15 000 landslides in the loess plateau
of Shaanxi Province, with a distribution density of more than
six per square kilometer (Lei, 2011). Most of these landslides
were triggered by heavy rainfall and with slip surface depths
of less than 3 m, which corresponds to shallow landslides.
Precipitation infiltrates into the interior of the loess up to a
limited depth (usually less than 2 m), because the permeability
of loess decreases with increasing depth (Derbyshire et al.,
1994; Tu et al., 2009; Xu et al., 2011).
Spatial and temporal landslide prediction is very important
for risk assessment and risk management. The characteristics
of rainfall events that trigger landslides have been extensively
investigated, and several early warning predictive models have
been implemented at various precipitation thresholds to predict
rainfall-induced landslides and/or identify potential unstable
 J. ZHUANG ET AL.
areas. Some of these models established correlations between
the environmental parameters of the slopes and landslides, as
well as the influences of landform, precipitation, geological
features, slope profiles, and vegetation cover (Gao, 1988;
Crozier, 1999; Crosta and Prisco, 1999; Wang et al., 2004;
Zhang and Liu, 2010; Li et al., 2013a; 2013b). The statistical
methods or qualitative methods used to evaluate the landslide
susceptibility are associated with the factors that affect land-
slide occurrences and help identify hazard zones. In order to
create a landslide hazard zone map, many statistical methods
have been applied, such as fuzzy set methods (Gorsevski
et al., 2003; Tangestani, 2004; Ercanoglu and Gokceoglu,
2004; Muthu et al., 2008), artificial neural network (ANN)
methods (Lee et al., 2003; Arora et al., 2004; Gomez and
Kavzoglu, 2005; Yesilnacar and Topal, 2005; Pradhan and
Lee, 2010a), logistic regression models (Song et al., 2008;
Pradhan and Lee, 2010b; Bai et al., 2010; Yilmaz, 2010;
Akgun, 2012; Park et al., 2012; Paulín et al., 2014), discrimina-
tory analysis (Nandi and Shakoor, 2010) and fuzzy logic analy-
sis (Kayastha, 2012). However, statistical models are largely
dependent on the quality of input data that influences the result
obtained by a model. As an alternative, to forecast landslides,
many researchers focused on the mechanism of landslides
based on quantitative assessments (Skempton, 1985; Iverson,
2000; Lu et al., 2007; Baum et al., 2008; Baum and Godt,
2010). Several physical models have been proposed, including
steady hydrology (SHALSTAB and SINMAP) (Montgomery and
Dietrich, 1994; Pack et al., 1999), quasi-steady hydrology
(dSLAM, IDSSM) (Wu and Sidle, 1995; Dhakal and Sidle,
2003) and transient hydrology (TRIGRS) (Baum et al., 2002,
2010).
It is well known that shallow landslide triggering mecha-
nisms are strictly linked to rainfall events with infiltration of
rainwater into a usually unsaturated soil. In particular, the
quick increase in positive pore-water pressures was considered
to be the most important cause of shallow landslides (Sassa,
1984; Lim et al., 1996; Iverson, 2000). Some studies have
focused on the hydrological features which cause the increase
in pore-water pressure of unsaturated soils and trigger shallow
landslides (Wang and Sassa, 2001; Ochiai et al., 2004;
Matsushi and Matsukura, 2007; Springman et al., 2013). In par-
ticular, TRIGRS-unsaturated model was developed to predict
shallow landslides triggered by precipitation infiltration (Baum
et al., 2002, 2010).
The TRIGRS-unsaturated model (Baum et al., 2010) was
applied to assess the triggering zones of shallow landslides.
The model can identify hydrological behavior of slope soil
and estimate pore-water pressure trend at the site-specific scale
(Savage et al., 2004; Saadatkhah et al., 2014; Alvioli et al.,
2014; Bordoni et al., 2015). Since the model can be used to
assess the sensitive triggering factors for landslides (Baum
et al., 2005), map zoning (Park et al., 2013) and prediction
(Kim et al., 2010), it is widely used worldwide for landslide
hazard zone identification, and analysis of actual precipitation
and FS (factors of safety) of slopes (Baum et al., 2010).
Rainfall in the Yan’an region, Northwest China, exceeded the
100-year return period in terms of both total cumulative precip-
itation and maximum rainfall intensity from 1 to 13 July 2013.
Tens of thousands of shallow landslides were triggered, with
small scar areas. Normally, shallow landslides are triggered
during extended-duration rainfall events by a rapid rise in pore
water pressure (Wang and Sassa, 2003; Ochiai et al., 2004;
Sassa et al., 2004) or by the loss of apparent cohesive force
(Stokes, 1983; Rao, 1996). As a result, a failure surface
develops within the soil profile or at the depth of precipitation
infiltration. The landslides in July 2013 resulted in 27 deaths,
and the entire series of events is known as the 2013 Yan’an
Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
heavy rainfall disaster. It is imperative to identify the type of
rainfall that tends to trigger landslides as well as reliably deter-
mine the slopes that are most prone to future landslide events.
Although spatial–temporal landslide prediction is very
important for risk assessment and management of landslides
in the Loess Plateau, analysis of initiation mechanism and
triggering factors for landslide processes is still very limited.
To improve our understanding of these factors, we conducted
comprehensive field investigations, monitored rainfall patterns,
and conducted laboratory experiments using the TRIGRS
model. The model was validated by applying data on the
shallow landslides triggered by the 12 July 2013 rainfall event.
Finally, different models used in the study area were compared
and the effects of precipitation parameters on shallow land-
slides have been discussed.
Physical Setting
Yan’an City is located in the central part of the Yan River Basin
which is the first distributary of the Yellow River. Yan’an is
located near the center of the Loess Plateau (36°35′21″N,
109°29′7″E, Figure 1) and is one of the major cities in the
plateau with high population density and limited area of flat
land. Consequently, it faces significant threats from landslides.
The topography is characterized by interwoven hills and
gullies, with elevations between 800 and 1400 m. Loess plat-
forms, loess ridges and loess domes are common in the Loess
Plateau, with loess ridges being broadly distributed in the study
area except the main gully bed (Derbyshire et al., 2000). The
slope angle is steep in the lower slope section and gentle in
the upper slope section, with an average angle of 23.5°. The
stratigraphic unit in the area comprises primarily Quaternary
deposits (Zhang and Liu, 2010). As show in Figure 2, the slopes
are covered with loess and sandstone distributed in the main
gully bed.
The upper layer is composed of Malan loess which was
deposited in the Late Pleistocene (deposited from about 128
000 years ago to 11 000 years ago) with 0–2 m thickness and
have mostly disappeared due to erosion. The middle layer is
Lishi loess, which was deposited in the Middle Pleistocene
(deposited from about 730 000 years ago to 128 000 years
ago) with 40–60 m thickness and cover nearly the entire area
of the plateau. The lower layer is composed of Wucheng loess,
which was deposited in the Earlier Pleistocene (deposited from
about 2.47 million years ago to 730 000 years ago) and lies
beneath the Lishi loess (Liu1985).
The study area experiences a warm temperate climate with
four distinct seasons. The annual precipitation is between 520
and 550 mm; however, most of the precipitation occurs during
severe rainstorms from June to September.
Because of the aforementioned factors, such as loose loess
texture, joint structure and intensive anthropogenic activity,
the physical setting of Yan’an region is extremely favorable for
the occurrence of landslides (Xu et al., 2007; Zhang and Liu,
2010; Li et al., 2013a, 2013b).
Methods and Parameters
Landslide and soil parameters collected
Aerial photography was used to map the locations of precipita-
tion induced landslides and analyze the features of the land-
slide areas. Field investigations were carried out to map the
landslides at a 1:10 000 scale and then digitalize them into a
Geographic Information System (GIS). The depth of the
Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, (2016)
 SHALLOW LANDSLIDE PREDICTION IN LOESS PLATEAU USING PHYSICAL MODEL

Figure 1. Physical setting of the study area: (a) the location of the study area in China; (b) the physical setting; (c) cross-section A-A’; d: cross-section
B-B′). Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com

landside was measured by a Portable Laser Range Measuring Rainfall intensity, duration, and soil hydraulic diffusivity were
Instrument in comparison with the side terrain. measured to assess the effects of transient rainfall on the timing
Following the standards of ‘China Method of Soil Testing’, and location of landslides, by modeling the pore water pres-
the basic properties of the loess were evaluated. The cohesion sure.
and angle of internal friction were estimated using the direct
shear test method following the soil test standard GBT50123– c tanφ ðϕγw Þ tanφ
1999. The unit weight and porosity of the soil were measured Fs ¼ þ þ (1)
γs Z sin α cos α tanα γs Z sin α cos α
using the ring sampler method and bottle method. To measure
the infiltration rate, a variable head double ring infiltration test
In Equation (1), ϕ is the ground-water transient pressure, φ is
was conducted in situ at different depths at site 1.
the frictional angle of soil, c is the soil cohesion, γs is the unit
In order to validate the data on infiltration depths and then
weight of the soil, and γw is the unit weight of water. The factor
determine the maximum infiltration depth, a monitoring site
of safety (Fs) is defined as the ratio of resistive forces over
was selected in the Loess Plateau. Five water content monitor-
driving forces on a slope. If Fs ≤ 1.0, it means that the slope is
ing sensors were placed at depths of 0.5 m, 1.0 m, 1.5 m, 2.0 m
unstable.
and 2.5 m at the monitoring site.

ϕ ðZ ; t Þ ¼ ½Z  d β
2 2 33
Transient vertical infiltration (TRIGRS) model N I 6
1
6 Z 77
nZ 6 6 77
þ2 ∑ 4H ðt  t n Þ½D1 ðt  t n Þ2 ierfc 4
n¼1K Z 1 55
The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional
2½D 1 ðt  t n Þ2
Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) model (Baum et al., 2002)
2 2 33
was used in this study for analysis of rainfall-induced land- 1
slides. The model is an engineering regional modeling of slope I nZ 6
N 6
6H ðt  t nþ1 Þ½D1 ðt  t nþ1 Þ2 ierfc 6 Z 77
77
2 ∑ 4 4
stability over a broad area recognized with one-dimensional, K
n¼1 Z 1 55
finite or infinite slope stability analysis applied over digital 2½D1 ðt  t nþ1 Þ2
elevation modeling (Baum et al., 2002, 2008; Savage et al., (2)
2004; Godt et al., 2006, 2008; Salciarini et al., 2006). For
modeling infiltration, an infiltration model for unsaturated flow where ϕ(Z, t) is the groundwater transient pressure head at
was applied to estimate infiltration at the ground surface using time t and at depth Z, which is positive in the downward direc-
a transient component which assumes that the infiltration pro- tion; Z = z/ cos α, where z is normal to the slope angle, a, d is
cess typically relies on one-dimensional vertical flow (Savage the steady water table in the z-direction, β = ξ cos α, where
et al., 2004; Salciarini et al., 2006, 2008; Godt et al., 2008). ξ = cos α  [IZ/KZ]LT, KZ is the hydrological conductivity, IZ is
Richards equation was used to describe unsaturated vertical the initial surface flux in the z-direction, InZ is the surface flux
flow in response to the infiltration of water in the ground for the nth time interval (LT means long term), and H(t  tn) is
surface (Iverson, 2000; Baum et al., 2010). Next, GIS was used the Heavyside step function. Further, D1 = D0cos2α, where D0
to prepare data layers and to present spatial analyses results. is the saturated hydraulic diffusivity; D is the total number of

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, (2016)
 J. ZHUANG ET AL.
Figure 2. The geological and stratigraphic features of the study area. Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com
intervals. The function ierfc(η) is ierfc ðηÞ ¼ 1π expðη2 Þ 
ηerfc ðηÞ, where, erfc(η) is the complementary error function.
From Equations (1) and (2), the variation in the spatial distri-
bution of the safety factor Fs was computed on the basis of
rainfall history and matrix/grid input data. The input data were
obtained both from Digital Elevation Model (DEM) analysis and
parametric GRID-maps derived from litho-technical and hydro-
logical characterization of the loess soil.
The TRIGRS model is applicable based on two major compo-
nents: rainfall infiltration analysis model and the slope stability
analysis model. The input data were converted into a grid-
based framework with information for each cell assigned
(elevation, slope gradient, aspect, soil depth, ground water
level, soil properties, and rainfall). All input layers were
acquired in a GIS framework. For each layer used in the model,
a map was generated using the same grid base (10 m × 10 m)
and raster format. A DEM was constructed from a 1:10 000
numerical cartographical map (acquisition date 2000) using
the Triangular Irregular Network method. The slope gradient,
aspect and elevation were derived from the DEM using surface
analysis with 10 m × 10 m pixel resolution. A flow direction grid
was generated through GIS processing of slope angle and
aspect raster, which was then used in topography index pro-
cessing during analysis of the surface distribution of runoff.
Rainfall data were collected every 3 h from a rain gauge in
Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Yan’an city. These data were used as inputs in the TRIGRS
model to map all potentially unstable slopes.
Receiver Operating Characteristics method
The performance of the model was judged based on a Receiver
Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve (Swets, 1988). The ROC
curve is a plot of the sensitivity (proportion of true positives) of
the prediction ability model versus the complement of its spec-
ificity (proportion of false positives), at a series of thresholds for
a positive outcome. Sensitivity indicates that a mapping unit
with landslides is correctly classified, and is plotted on the
y-axis of the ROC plot. In other words, sensitivity is the false
negative rate (Nefeslioglu et al., 2010). Specificity indicates that
a mapping unit with FS (factor of the safety) <1 and landslide
point is correctly classified. In other words, 1-specificity is the
false positive rate and is mapped along the x-axis of the ROC
plot. The area under the curve represents the probability that
the landslide susceptibility value for a landslide mapping unit
calculated by the model will exceed the result for a randomly
chosen no-landslide-occurrence mapping unit. The model is
considered to reflect the real situation if the area under the
curve is close to 1.
Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, (2016)
 SHALLOW LANDSLIDE PREDICTION IN LOESS PLATEAU USING PHYSICAL MODEL
Results
Description of the 12 July 2013 landslide event
During the period 1–11 July 2013, heavy rainfall affected the
Yan’an region. The cumulative precipitation was 196.1 mm,
with a maximum daily rainfall of 67.5 mm recorded on 9 July.
Another rainstorm occurred on 12 July with a daily precipita-
tion amount of 87.8 mm, a mean rainfall intensity of 3.66 mm/
h and a maximum rainfall intensity of 8.96 mm/h. The intensity
and accumulation of 10-days rainfall were the maximum in the
recent 60 years according to weather records and up to
100 years return-period was calculated based on historical
records of precipitation using the Estimation Method (Thomas
and Benson, 1970). Thirty-five shallow landslides occurred
after the event and were identified based on field investigations
in the study area; all were classified as debris slide and debris-
slip flow landslides.
Figure 3 shows the distribution of landslide depths, areas and
volumes. No landslide had a depth greater than 3 m, with
>70% being between 1 and 2 m (Figure 3(a)). The area of most
(91%) landslides was less than 200 m2 (Figure 3(b)). Individual
landslide volumes were less than 1000 m3 in 90% of the land-
slides. Furthermore, landslides with volumes less than 250 m3
represented 68.5% of the total (Figure 3(c)).
Figure 4 indicates the density of landslide distribution across
the slopes studied and the profile curvature of the study area.
Figure 3. Distribution of landslide depth, area and volume in the study
area. Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com
Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Analysis revealed that the highest density of landslides
(79.6%) occurred for a slope angle range 25 to 45° (Figure 4
(a)). Landslide occurrences were distributed at locations with
convex (40.82%), plane (36.70%) and concave (24.48%)
slopes. The convex surfaces were particularly susceptible to
shallow landslide occurrences (Figure 4(b)). As mentioned
previously, the landslides in Loess Plateau were triggered by
precipitation and were mainly of shallow type. Therefore,
map zoning and prediction can be done using the TRIGRS
model.
TRIGRS model parameters
The unit weight and shear resistance parameters were mea-
sured for soil samples taken from different depths, ranging from
0–2 m, in the study area. As the area is covered by the Lishi
Loess in the upper layers, the cohesion and angle of internal
friction were tested with the layer’s natural water content
(13.5–19.6%, sampling sites in Figure 1). The cohesion of the
study area ranged from 17.4 kPa to 42.7 kPa with a mean of
34.0 kPa. The angle of friction varied from 19.6° to 24.6° with
a mean of 22.5 kPa (Figure 5).
At sample site 1, the density of the soil ranged from
1.48 g/cm3 to 1.75 g/cm3 with a mean of 1.67 g/cm3, while
porosity ranged from 48.7% to 54.9% with a mean of 50.4%.
The natural water content and density increased with increase
in the depth, while porosity decreased with increasing depth
at 0–2.5 m.
Three boreholes were drilled approximately 30 m deep
within the study area. The phreatic water table level was
observed to be more than 30 m deep.
Figure 6 indicates the infiltration rate at different depths. As
soil depth increased, the infiltration rate decreased from
3.76 × 102 m/h to 0.44 × 102 m/h and the mean rate was
2.13 × 102 m/h (Table I).
According to field investigations and data analysis, the
depths of both shallow landslides and maximum infiltration
were low (generally <2.0 m, Li et al., 2007; Zhang and Liu,
2010; Li et al., 2013b). The three monitored sites have the same
geological character, the stratigraphic sequence is Malan
(upper), Lishi (middle) and Wucheng loess (lower). The Yan’an
Dalugou landslide monitored site is located in Yan’an, the
Renjiacheng and the Pingliang monitored sites are 265 km
and 250 km away from Yan’an, respectively (Figure 7(a)).
Figure 7(b) shows that the response of water content to precip-
itation decreased with increasing depth. No response to precip-
itation was observed at a depth of 2.5 m.
In order to validate the data on infiltration depths in the Loess
Plateau, data were also collected from two other monitoring
stations in the plateau. Data from the Xi’an Renjiacheng land-
slide monitoring station exhibited a similar pattern to that from
the Yan’an Dalugou station. Data from both these stations signi-
fied that no response of soil water to precipitation was observed
at depths of 2.0 m or greater (Figure 7(c)). Similarly, Figure 7(d)
illustrates the soil water content at different depths at the
Pingliang monitoring station.
It can be thus concluded that the maximum depth of infiltra-
tion (i.e. the maximum depth of the soil response to precipita-
tion) was ≤2.0 m, a value that was used to represent the soil
depth in the TRIGRS model.
Figure 8 shows that the highest intensity of precipitation
(8.96 mm/h) during July 2013 rainfall occurred at 09:00 on 12
July. The event was divided into eight precipitation periods to
enable model input according to precipitation intensities at
different times.
Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, (2016)
 J. ZHUANG ET AL.
Figure 4. Landslide distribution across slopes and profile curvature in the study area. Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com
Figure 5. Cohesion and angle of internal friction in soil samples with
different water content.
TRIGRS model prediction
Using GIS spatial analysis, all the input data (such as elevation,
aspect, slope, groundwater, soil depth and mechanical param-
eters) for the TRIGRS model were generated in each grid pixel,
while all related data were generated in the form of ASCII grid
files. Using the TRIGRS model, a safety factor value for each
grid cell was calculated with respect to the rainfall event on
12 July 2013.
The temporal and spatial dynamics of FS values are shown in
Figure 9. The four intermediate FS maps for the 6th, 12th, 18th
and 24th hours of the storm are shown in Figure 9, correspond-
ing to 6:00, 12:00, 18:00, and 24:00 hrs, respectively. The area
with FS < 1 tended to increase as the duration of rainfall
Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Figure 6. Soil characteristics at different soil depths at sample site 1.
Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com
increased. Comparing the maps, the percentages of the area
with FS < 1 were 0.2%, 3.3%, 3.8% and 5.1%, respectively.
At the 24th hour, TRIGRS predicted that 1255 grid cells failed,
indicated in red in Figure 9(d). Figure 9(c) also illustrates that
landslides occurred more frequently between 6:00 and
12:00 hrs, which is consistent with eyewitness reports. Mean-
while, the area with FS < 1 was mostly distributed along gullies,
especially along the lower part of the slope, while the upper
part of the slope witnessed relatively few landslides.
The performance of the TRIGRS model was evaluated by
comparing the effective landslides recorded after the 12 July
2013 event. The area under the curve represented the probabil-
ity that the landslide susceptibility value for a landslide map-
ping unit calculated by the model will exceed the result for a
Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, (2016)
 SHALLOW LANDSLIDE PREDICTION IN LOESS PLATEAU USING PHYSICAL MODEL

Table I. Summary of soil properties in the study area.

Parameter Min. Max. Ave. Std dev. Remarks

Slope / ° 0 58.8 22.3 14.9 From DEM (resolution is 10 m)

Infiltration depth / m 2 From landslide depth and Field monitoring
Water table depth / m > 40 From bore hole

Cohesive / kPa 17.4 42.7 34.0 4.04 From soil test using tri-axial tests

Inner friction angle / ° 19.6 24.6 22.5 1 From soil test using tri-axial tests
3
Unit loess weight / g/cm 1.48 1.75 1.67 1.22 From soil test

Porosity / % 48.7 54.9 50.4 5.21 From soil test

the value is the 100 times of the infiltration
2
Hydraulic diffusivity / ×10 m/h 21.3 rate (Meng et al., 2013)
2
Infiltration rate / ×10 m/h 3.76 0.44 0.22 -- From infiltration test in the filed

Figure 7. Response of water content to precipitation in the Loess Plateau. (b) Yan’an Dalugou; (c) Xi’an Renjiacheng; (d) Gansu Pingliang, Data were
obtained from Zhang et al. (2014). Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, (2016)
 J. ZHUANG ET AL.
Figure 8. Precipitation intensity on 12 July 2013 in Yan’an.
randomly chosen no-landslide-occurrence mapping unit.
Figure 10 displays the ROC curve for the model developed
and the area under the curve was 0.787. This confirmed the
robustness of the constructed model.
Figure 9. Temporal and spatial dynamics in FS values as a function of the rainfall event on 12 July, 2013: (a) 6:00; (b) 12:00; (c) 18:00; (d)
24:00 hours. Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com
Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Discussion
Comparison with SINMAP results
The SINMAP model is a type of steady-state hydrological
model and is coupled with an infinite slope model (Pack
et al., 1999). This model uses Stability Index (SI), which is de-
fined as the probability of slope instability. This value normally
ranges between 0 (most unstable) and 1 (least unstable). The
stability classes adopted by SINMAP are shown in Table II.
The model has been used in the Loess Plateau in different re-
gions as a useful tool to predict shallow landslides (Kang et al.,
2010; Zhuang et al., 2013). To quantify agreement between
both models used in the study area, we assessed the shallow
landslides that followed the July 2013 rainfall event in the study
area using SINMAP with the same input parameters as those
used in the TRIGRS model (Table III). The most significant
results predicted by the SINMAP and TRIGRS models as well
Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, (2016)
 SHALLOW LANDSLIDE PREDICTION IN LOESS PLATEAU USING PHYSICAL MODEL

as the landslides that actually took place are illustrated in

Figure 10. ROC curves for the TRIGRS and SINMAP model (blue line
is the ROC curve for TRIGRS model, black line is the ROC curve for
SINMAP model and green line is area under the curve =0.5). Colour fig-
ure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com
Figure 11.
The calibration processes for SINMAP resulted in an in-
crease in the predicted proportion of unstable areas until
the point where landslide scars were discovered inside those
areas; however, there were many false positives. Since
SINMAP is a probabilistic prediction model, it can provide
a probability of failure at a certain precipitation threshold,
but it cannot determine the slope stability at that threshold.
In other words, the probabilistic distribution creates several
combinations of input parameters, which induces a tendency
to classify a relatively larger area in the study area as unsta-
ble. Thus, the accuracy rate of the SINMAP model in
predicting true positives is very high (71.4%) (Table II). On
the other hand, SINMAP also reveals a high error index (false
positives). The ROC curve reflected the difference between
the SINMAP and TRIGRS models (Figure 10), the areas under
the curve were 0.787 and 0.682 for TRIGRS and SINMAP

Table II. Stability classes and results of the SINMAP model.

Stable Moderately stable Quasi-stable Lower threshold Upper threshold Defended

(10 > SI > 1.5) (1.25 < SI > 1.5) (1 < SI > 1.25) (0.5 < SI > 1) (0 < SI > 0.5) (SI = 0) Total
2
Area (km ) 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 2
Percentage of region 41.3 7.9 14.8 17.7 11.4 6.9 100
Number of landslides 3 2 1 4 7 18 35
Percentage of slides 8.6 5.7 2.9 11.4 20 51.4 100

Table III. Soil property input parameters used in the SINMAP model.

Cohesion Internal friction Precipitation

Initiation /kPa angle/ ° Soil density parameter (T/R) m
2 3
Gravity (m s ) water content /% / kg m
Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

9.8 17 24 32 25.2 27.1 1670 1000 3000

Figure 11. Predictions of shallow landslides using (a) SINMAP, and (b) TRIGRS. Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, (2016)
 J. ZHUANG ET AL.
Figure 12. Assessment of slope stability using TRIGRS for different precipitation scenarios: (a) short, intense precipitation; (b) extended heavy
precipitation; (c) extended light precipitation. Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com
models, respectively. The SINMAP model gave high true
positives but also gave high error index (false positives).
On comparing the two models, TRIGRS generated more
satisfactory results at a given precipitation threshold. Therefore,
the use of SINMAP is ideal for landslide hazard zoning for land-
use planning at a regional scale, whereas TRIGRS is more
useful for landslide predictions both for a certain precipitation
threshold and at the regional scale.
Effects of precipitation on shallow landslides
To analyze the response of loess slope stability to different pre-
cipitation patterns, three scenarios were considered: (i) short,
intense precipitation (60 mm/h for 2 h, equivalent to a 1-in-
200 year event of intense precipitation); (ii) extended heavy
precipitation (8.4 mm/h for 24 h, also equivalent to a 1-in-
200 year event of total precipitation in 24 h), and (iii) extended
light precipitation (0.86 mm/h for 24 h). The TRIGRS model was
then used to predict slope stability, using the same soil proper-
ties as those used in the SINMAP model.
As indicated in Figure 12, an extended period of heavy pre-
cipitation generated maximum slope instability among the three
scenarios, whereas the extended light precipitation generated
the least. To quantify the effect of precipitation on slope stability,
we conducted an analysis of the total number of cells with FS < 1
after termination of the precipitation event. Short, heavy pre-
cipitation resulted in 3.2% of the total area displaying slope
instability (Figure 12(a)), compared with 14.5% from extended,
heavy precipitation (Figure 12(b)), and 0.16% from extended,
light precipitation (Figure 12(c)). In other words, the TRIGRS
model predicted that loess slopes in the study area are most
likely to fail after an extended period of heavy precipitation.
Such an event would also result in the largest depth of infiltra-
tion, which in turn would trigger shallow landslides. By contrast,
most of the water from a short, intense precipitation event is lost
as runoff.
Figure 7(c) shows the response of soil water content at the
Pingliang monitoring station. The upper 2 m of the soil displayed
evident changes in soil moisture in response to seasonal precip-
itation cycles. At precipitation rates less than 20 mm/d, most of
the flux in the water content occurred in the surface layers (top
20 cm). Precipitation rates greater than 20 mm/d caused a large
increase in soil moisture at greater depths, with both the
response amplitude and depth of infiltration dependent on
precipitation rates. The infiltration rate is small compared with
other soils (Zhuang et al., 2012) and with high evaporation.
Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The annual evaporation is >1500 mm and >200 mm in July.
Precipitation for a short time cannot infiltrate into the soil
rapidly, and is therefore, lost via surface flow and evaporation.
Limitations
Vegetation cover is an important factor influencing the occur-
rence and movement of rainfall-triggered landslides (Glade,
2003). The TRIGRS model assumes flow in homogeneous,
isotropic soil. Thus, application of this model in areas with
marked soil anisotropy or heterogeneity in hydrologic proper-
ties may introduce errors in the solution (Baum et al., 2010).
Furthermore, land use affects soil strength (Van Beek and Van
Asch, 2004), hydrologic properties and infiltration, and can
cause errors in model prediction. Vertical joints formed through
the action of internal and external geological forces gradually
damage the integrity of the loess in the vertical and horizontal
directions. Those joints provide a channel for surface water
infiltration (Xu et al., 2011), resulting in a very high infiltration
rate along the joints and in turn softens the loess.
Conclusions
Landslides triggered by heavy precipitation in loess areas in
China frequently result in loss of life, damage to oil and gas
pipelines and transportation infrastructure, and reduction in
the area of arable land. Thirty-five landslides were triggered
by a heavy rainfall event at Yan’an, northwestern China, on
12 July 2013. This type of rainfall event occurs once every
100 years, on average. Field studies indicated that all were clas-
sifiable as shallow landslides (Figure 3, Wang et al., 2015). It
can be inferred that extended-duration, heavy precipitation is
unlikely to trigger deep landslides in the study area; this asser-
tion was borne out by the observed infiltration depths and by
data indicating soil water displayed no response to precipita-
tion at depths of 2.0 m or greater (Figure 7). On the other hand,
evidence exists that several deep landslides occurred in the
past along gully slopes in the study area. We hypothesize that
most of these deep landslides were triggered by lateral erosion
due to rivers (similar to slope cutting), with deep landslides
occurring simultaneously with river landform evolution. Loess
is characterized by the presence of macro-pores, vertical joints,
loose texture and water sensitivity, which makes it prone to
collapse and erosion (Derbyshire, 2001; Dijkstra et al., 1995;
Xu et al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2009; Zhang and Liu, 2010).
Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, (2016)
 SHALLOW LANDSLIDE PREDICTION IN LOESS PLATEAU USING PHYSICAL MODEL
Therefore, landform changes are rapid, and gravity erosion
(gravity landslides) occurs as a consequence of landform evolu-
tion. This phenomenon has been the focus of many recent stud-
ies (Pánek and Klimeš, 2016; Lee et al., 2016).
In this study, the TRIGRS model was employed to predict
precipitation-triggered landslides in the 12 July 2013 rainfall
event. The modeling results were generally consistent with
actual observations, albeit with some errors. Interestingly, the
predicted landslide depth was 2.0 m, matching the depth of tree
roots in the area (Wang et al., 2015). Tree roots can affect soil
strength, influence water infiltration, and make the soil
anisotropic depending on the infiltration rate (Veylon et al.,
2015; Bordoni et al., 2016). The TRIGRS model assumes flow
in homogeneous, isotropic soil; thus, application to areas with
marked soil anisotropy or heterogeneity in hydrologic proper-
ties may cause errors. Overall, it is unclear whether the
presence of trees inhibits or encourages landslide activity in
loess areas (Bordoni et al., 2016; Bengough et al., 2016). At
present, the Chinese government’s plan ‘Returning Farmland
to Forest’ has been implemented in the study area, which
reinforces the need to examine the mechanisms by which trees
influence landslides.
Loess slopes are particularly sensitive to extended periods
of heavy precipitation, which suggests that antecedent effec-
tive rainfall play an important role in triggering landslide in
loess. Figure 7 indicates the soil moisture at different soil
depths, plotted against precipitation, in Pingliang. Soil mois-
ture was highly sensitive and responsive to precipitation,
above a certain threshold of antecedent precipitation. Current
literature on landslide prediction indicates two viewpoints
regarding the selection of appropriate precipitation parame-
ters: one focuses on rainfall intensity (Guzzetti et al., 2007)
and the other on antecedent effective rainfall (Cui et al.,
2008). The influence of rainfall on landslides differs substan-
tially depending upon the landslide type and materials
involved (Guzzetti et al., 2008). Previous studies concluded
that shallow failures are usually triggered by short and
intense storms, while deep failures are triggered by
extended-duration rainfall (Piacentini et al., 2012; Chen
et al., 2014). However, in our study, long-term and intense
antecedent effective rainfall triggered clusters of shallow
landslides in loess. This effect of antecedent rainfall may be
influenced by regional climates, soil permeability properties
and landslide initiation type. Accordingly, we suggest that
models to predict shallow landslides should consider the
antecedent rainfall in the study area.
We end by emphasizing that the simulation results need to
be improved for different regions with consideration of the
contributions of different factors towards landslide occur-
rence. Even within the same geographical zone, there can
exist differences in land use, and in physiographical, geologi-
cal and geomorphological properties. The TRIGRS model
enables assessment of shallow landslides by considering
anisotropy at different soil depths in the study area, and by
investigating the degree of influence of various factors on
landslide occurrence.
Acknowledgments—The authors wish to thank Liyong Zhang, Yazhe
Li, Penghui Ma and Dr Di Wu for their contributions and involve-
ment in the current investigation and experiments. We would also
like to express our gratitude to Professor Zhenhong Li from
Newcastle University and Dr Wenbo Chen from Polyu for polishing
and revising the manuscript. This study was supported financially
by the National Basic Research Program of China (No.
2014CB744703) and the National Natural Science Foundation of
China (Grant No. 41572272,411130753 and 41661134015) and
the central university founding of the Chang’an university
(310826163503).
Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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