International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering

ISSN: 1938-6362 (Print) 1939-7879 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/yjge20

Numerical modelling of rainfall effects on the

stability of soil slopes

Adarsh S. Chatra , G. R. Dodagoudar & V. B. Maji

To cite this article: Adarsh S. Chatra , G. R. Dodagoudar & V. B. Maji (2017): Numerical modelling
of rainfall effects on the stability of soil slopes, International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,
DOI: 10.1080/19386362.2017.1359912

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19386362.2017.1359912

Published online: 04 Aug 2017.

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 International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2017
https://doi.org/10.1080/19386362.2017.1359912

Numerical modelling of rainfall effects on the stability of soil slopes

Adarsh S. Chatra  , G. R. Dodagoudar and V. B. Maji
Computational Geomechanics Laboratory, Geotechnical Engineering Division, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras,
Chennai, India

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

High intensity rainfall leads to slope failures that are initially unsaturated. Rainfall is the main triggering Received 8 November 2016
factor for the slope failure; however, the denseness of the soil with associated soil properties has not Accepted 20 July 2017
received adequate attention on the stability of the slopes. In this study, the finite difference analysis
KEYWORDS
of transient water flow through unsaturated–saturated soil is carried out to study the effects of rainfall Unsaturated soil; rainfall
intensity and duration on pore pressure generation, degree of saturation, slope stability and shear strain intensity; soil slope; finite
increment during rainfall event. A parametric sensitivity analysis is performed considering three rainfall difference analysis; pore
intensities applied over the soil slopes consisting of three different soil states namely loose, medium
Downloaded by [University of Florida] at 07:48 04 August 2017

pressure; slope stability;

and dense. Results indicate that the rainfall affects the stability of loose and medium soil slopes much as saturated permeability; FLAC
compared to the dense soil slope. The rain-induced instability is much more in loose soil slope as compared
to the medium soil slope.

Introduction The physical processes of the infiltration of rainwater into

ground and its seepage through the soils have been utilised by
Slope failures and landslides are among the major natural dis-
many researchers (Green and Ampt 1911; Lumb 1962; Pradel
asters occurring more often in the world. The subject of sta-
and Raad 1993). However, some of these models do not take into
bility analysis of rain-induced failures in soil is an interesting,
account of sloping ground conditions, down-slope flows, rainfall
important and challenging one both from theoretical to practical
intensity and most importantly, the dependence of soil perme-
points of view in geotechnical engineering. The slope failures and
ability on moisture content (Ng and Shi 1998). The aforemen-
landslides occur when hillslopes become mechanically unsta-
tioned limitations have been addressed and taken into account in
ble, because of geologic and hydrogeologic processes and pose
Green and Ampt (1911) infiltration model and further integrated
a serious threat to human life and built environments in their
with the slope stability method to predict the safety, time and
proximity and along the runout of the mass movement. These
depth of failure of soil slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration
slope failures have become common geotechnical problems and
(Chen and Young 2006; Muntohar and Liao 2010). Although the
are most common in many countries such as Hong Kong, Italy,
infiltration slope stability model is capable of taking into account
Singapore, and India (Lumb 1975; Hendron and Patton 1987;
of infiltration, the model is not capable of generating the proper
Dodagoudar and Venkatachalam 2001; Rahardjo, Leong, and
shape of slip surface. The stress–strain information in the slope
Rezaur 2008; Jaiswal, van Westen, and Jetten 2011). In India, the
section is difficult to evaluate using the above models; however,
Nilgiris region has frequently confronted with the occurrence
the numerical models are capable of providing this information.
of slope failures and landslides during rainfall leading to sev-
In literature, a few numerical analyses have been performed to
eral casualties and loss of properties (Ganapathy, Mahendran,
assess the failure mechanism of slopes under rainfall (Ng and
and Sekar 2010). The process of rain water infiltration into the
Shi 1998; Gasmo, Rahardjo, and Leong 2000). Cai and Ugai
soil and its movement in unsaturated soils have been studied by
(2004) conducted finite element studies on the stability of slopes
hydrologists, geologists and geotechnical engineers by carrying
subjected to high intensity and longer duration rainfall. They
out the field and numerical investigations (Lumb 1962; Philip
concluded that the initial volumetric water content, saturated
1991; Iverson 2000; Ng et al. 2003; Tsaparas et al. 2003). The
permeability, matric suction, rainfall intensity and duration are
physics-based and numerical models are capable of reproducing
responsible for the increase in pore-water pressure and eventu-
the physical processes during rainfall infiltration and failure ini-
ally it affects the stability of slopes.
tiation in the variably saturated soils during the process of slope
Rahimi, Rahardjo, and Leong (2011) studied the influence of
failures and subsequent mass movement. Numerical modelling
rainfall patterns on high and low permeable soils subjected to
takes into account of various physical processes in the unsatu-
delayed, normal and advanced antecedent rainfall patterns. The
rated soil during rainfall and help in proper understanding of
results indicate that the low permeability soil is more affected
the failure mechanisms.

CONTACT  Adarsh S. Chatra  adarshchatra@gmail.com, ce12d001@smail.iitm.ac.in

© 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
 2   A. S. CHATRA ET AL.
than the high permeability soil in terms of stability. Furthermore,
the rate of decrease in factor of safety (FOS) values for advanced
patterns in rainfall is found to be more than the other rainfall pat-
terns. However, their study was restricted to pore-water pressure
and FOS variation with time. Ali et al. (2014) investigated the
effects of different boundary conditions (slope angle, drainage
of layer) on the failure time and failure depth subjected to vari-
ous rainfall intensities. They concluded that the shallow failure
was observed for more permeable drained boundary, whereas
the deeper failure was observed for less permeable drainage
boundary. Xue et al. (2016) conducted coupled and uncoupled
analyses on the effect of long duration rainstorms on red-clay
slopes in China. This study has indicated that the settlement is
observed at the slope surface for short duration rainstorm and
for longer duration rainstorm, non-uniform swelling of the slope
is observed. No significant variation in pore-water pressure and
FOS values are detected for both the coupled and uncoupled
analyses.
The study presented in this paper focuses on correlation
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between the stability of soil slopes and rainfall intensity and dura-
tion. Uniform rainfall patterns are used in the numerical analysis
of soil slopes with different durations and soil conditions. The
effects of hydraulic characteristics of soil, rainfall intensity and
duration on the stability of soil slopes of different densities viz.
loose, medium and dense are studied in detail. The main rainfall
events are applied to the slopes right after the application of the
antecedent rainfall. The antecedent rainfall is applied to simulate
the initial conditions prevalent just before the occurrence of the
major rainfall events. This will be the case in most of the resid-
ual soil slopes during rainfall in tropical and sub-tropical areas.
The variations in pore-water pressure in slopes under different
rainfalls are computed using finite difference analysis (FDA) of
transient water flow through unsaturated soils. These pore-wa-
ter pressures are then used along with the strength reduction
technique to calculate the FOS using FDA. All the finite dif-
ference computations have been performed using FLAC. The
displacement characteristics of the slopes are also studied and
are provided for the selected points of the slope cross section.
This information can be used to advantage while estimating the
amount of initial slide-mass likely to be involved in the slope
failure process.
Theoretical consideration
Improvements in understanding of the principles of water flow
in soils that connect soil behaviour to slope stability, improved
analytical procedures supplemented by rigorous examination of
the mechanics of slope stability analyses, comparison with field
behaviour and use of computers to perform thorough analyses
have led to the complete understanding of the stability of slopes
in soils under rainfall conditions.
Fundamental flow equation
The rain water approaching the ground surface can be divided
into three processes namely, surface moisture, subsurface or
unsaturated flow and groundwater flow. Soil is unsaturated
when the porous medium still has some of its voids occu-
pied by air, and saturated when the voids are filled with water.
Capillary forces above the groundwater table saturate the soil to
short distance and above the capillary fringe unsaturated zone
exists. The unsaturated zone exists till soil experiences satura-
tion due to rainfall or flooding. The mathematical statement that
describes the flow of water in a variably saturated soil is obtained
by combining the statement of moisture conservation and the
simplified momentum equation which is given by Darcy’s law
(Chow, Maidment, and Mays 1988). The equation governing the
one-dimensional flow of water in unsaturated soils is attributed
to Richards (1931) and is given as
𝜕𝜃 𝜕 𝜕𝜃
( )
= D(𝜃) + k(𝜃) (1)
𝜕t 𝜕z 𝜕z
where k(θ) = permeability of soil, θ = volumetric water content,
z = elevation head, t = time, D(θ) = k(∂ω/∂θ) = soil water diffusiv-
ity and ω = suction head. Two unknown parameters in Equation
(1) which need to be determined are permeability and diffusiv-
ity. These parameters are functions of volumetric water content
which depend on the matric suction. The Richard’s equation is
highly non-linear and the soil parameters are dependent on the
flow variables which makes it difficult to obtain the analytical
solution. The matric suction is defined as the difference between
the pore air and pore-water pressures. The relationship between
the water content in a soil and the pore-water pressure can be
expressed in the form of volumetric moisture content vs. matric
suction, known as the soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC).
A widely used representation of the hydraulic characteristics of
the unsaturated soils is the set of closed-form equations formu-
lated by van Genuchten (1980), which are based on the capillary
model of Mualem (1976). The SWCC, the diffusivity and the
permeability functions are expressed as
( )
𝜃 − 𝜃r
Θ = ( ) (2)
𝜃s − 𝜃 r
(1 − m) ks 1∕ − 1∕
( )
D(𝜃) = ) Θ 2 m
(3)
(
𝛼 m 𝜃s − 𝜃r
[( )−m ( )m ]
1 1
× 1 − Θ ∕m + 1 − Θ ∕m −2
[ ( )m ]2
1 1
k(𝜃) = ks kr = ks Θ ∕2 1 − 1 − Θ ∕m (4)
where Θ = relative degree of saturation, ks and kr = saturated and
relative permeabilities, θs and θr = saturated and residual volu-
metric water contents, α, m and θr are the empirical parameters of
hydraulic characteristics of the porous medium. The five param-
eters viz. ks, θs, α, m and θr in which the saturated permeability
(ks) and saturated water content (θs) can directly be determined
from laboratory tests. The other parameters can be determined
by fitting the SWCC. The van Genuchten model is considered to
provide a better match to the experimental data.
Numerical modelling
In order to simulate numerically the onset of rainfall-induced
slope failures in variably saturated-unsaturated conditions, the

hydro-mechanically coupled transient analysis is required to be
formulated in a consistent manner. The two-dimensional finite
different analysis for the transient water flow through unsatu-
rated–saturated soils has been adopted earlier in the field of
hydrology. In this study, the rainfall-induced instability analy-
sis of slopes is performed using a finite difference code, FLAC
(FLAC Manual 2011). The governing differential equations for
subsurface flow are expressed as
𝜕qis
[ ] [ ]
𝜃 𝜕Ps 𝜕𝜃s 𝜕𝜀
n s + = − + 𝜃s
Ks 𝜕t 𝜕t 𝜕xi 𝜕t
[ ] [ g
] Ftrial
𝜃g 𝜕Pg 𝜕𝜃g 𝜕qi 𝜕𝜀
n + = − + 𝜃g
Kg 𝜕t 𝜕t 𝜕xi 𝜕t
where qis and qig = fluid flow of water and air, respectively, Ks
and Kg = bulk modulus of water and air, respectively, θg = fluid
saturation of air, Ps and Pg = pore-water and pore-air pressures,
Downloaded by [University of Florida] at 07:48 04 August 2017
respectively, n = porosity of soil and ε = volumetric strain.
The slope stability computations are carried out in the pres-
ent study using shear strength reduction (SSR) technique in
FLAC. The shear strength contribution coming from the neg-
ative pore-water pressure in unsaturated soil is considered in
the stability analysis. For this purpose, Bishop’s effective stress
formula is used (Bishop 1959):
( ) ( )
𝜎 � = 𝜎 − P g + 𝜒 Pg − P s (7)
where σ′ = effective normal stress, σ = total normal stress and
χ = parameter which is function of soil type and degree of sat-
uration and it’s values varies between zero and unity. The shear
strength of soil is expressed as
𝜏max = c � + 𝜎 � tan 𝜙�
where τmax  =  shear strength of unsaturated soil,  c′  =  effective
cohesion of soil, ϕ′ = angle of internal friction of soil
Substituting Equation (7) in Equation (8) we get the following
equation:
( ) ( )
𝜏 max = c � + 𝜎 − Pg tan 𝜙� + 𝜒 Pg − Ps tan 𝜙� (9)
Traditionally, slope stability analysis is analysed using limit equi-
librium approach. Over the years, finite element/finite differ-
ence method with shear strength reduction (SSR) technique has
been applied to the practical slope stability analysis (Zienkiewicz,
Humpheson, and Lewis 1975; Ugai 1989; Dawson, Roth, and
Drescher 1999; Griffiths and Lane 1999). Studies have shown that
the SSR technique is a reliable and robust approach to assess the
safety factor of the slope and locating the corresponding critical
slip surface. One of the main advantages of the SSR technique
is that the failure surface is found automatically through the
zones within the material where shear stresses overcome the
shear strength of the material. The SSR technique does not have
the concept of slices, hence there is no need for the assumption
about inter slice side forces.
The analysis of the rain-induced slope instability is carried
out using FLAC in plain strain mode. The pore-water pressures
needed in the calculation of shear strength of the unsaturated
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING   3
soils are obtained from the transient flow analysis. Then the FOS
calculations are performed utilising the SSR technique by pro-
gressively reducing the shear strength of the material (cohesion
and friction) to bring the slope to a state of limiting equilibrium.
The soil slope is modelled using Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion.
The SSR technique requires many trial runs with a trial factor of
safety Ftrial with the c′ and φ′ adjusted as given by
� 1 �
ctrial =
Ftrial
c (10)
(5)
[ ]
1
𝜙�trial = tan−1 tan 𝜙� (11)
(6) The Ftrial value at which slope fails can be found using bracketing
and bisection. Initially, upper and lower brackets are established.
The simulation for first Ftrial converges is considered as lower
bracket and non-convergence of Ftrial is taken as upper bracket.
Further, a point midway between the convergence and non-con-
vergence are tested. If the simulation converges, the new value
is updated to the lower bracket and if the simulation does not
converges; the upper bracket is replaced with the new value. The
process is repeated until the difference between the upper and
lower brackets is less than a particular value.
Stability analysis using FLAC
Slope geometry and boundary conditions
In this study, the slope geometry, mechanical and hydraulic
properties that are given in Cai and Ugai (2004) are considered.
Figure 1 shows the homogeneous slope of silty sand having spe-
cific slope geometry and boundary conditions. The slope angle
of 33.7°, slope height of 10 m and initial height of groundwater
(8) table from the bottom of the slope is taken as 4 m in the analysis.
The boundary conditions utilised for the seepage analysis are also
shown in Figure 1. The three main rainfall events with intensities
(i.e. boundary fluxes), I = 0.1 ks, 1 ks and 10 ks are applied to the
surface of slope right after the application of a particular ante-
cedent rainfall during the stability analysis of rain-induced slope
instability. Along the sides of the slope below the water table, a
boundary condition equal to total head is applied.
Initial conditions
Firstly, an antecedent total rainfall of 2000  mm prior to the
main rainfall event is applied to the surface of slope for one
year in order to simulate the antecedent groundwater condi-
tions in the slope section. The pore-water pressure, degree of
saturation, shear strain, displacement, etc. are evaluated at the
end of the main rainfall events. The plots corresponding to the
above parameters are drawn against the depth from the slope
surface at the selected locations in the top and bottom portions
of the slope sections, Section x–x and y–y (Figure 1). Initially,
the pore-water pressure distribution near the soil surface, after
the application of antecedent rainfall prior to the main rainfall
event, is different for different soils depending on the denseness
of the soil. Bowles (1997) suggested the equivalent density and
friction angle for different relative densities for the granular soils
 4   A. S. CHATRA ET AL.

Figure 1. Slope geometry and boundary conditions for a homogeneous slope.

having very loose to very dense state. The density values adopted Table 1. Soil properties of the silty sand.
in the present study are taken from Bowles (1997). Lee and Singh Soil ks (m/s) γd (kN/m3) n (−) φ′ (°) ψ (°)
(1971) proposed an approximate relation between the relative Loose 1 × 10−6 15 0.4339 30 0
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compaction and relative density as Medium 1 × 10−7 17 0.3584 34 0

Dense 1 × 10−8 19 0.2829 39 9
Rc = 80 + 0.2 Dr (12)
where Rc is the relative compaction and Dr is the relative density.
Table 2. Engineering and hydraulic properties of the soil (after Cai and Ugai 2004).
From the densities adopted in the study, the corresponding rela-
tive densities are obtained for the loose, medium and dense soils. Parameter Value
The resulting changes in the initial FOS values, Fi, are plotted in Young’s modulus (MPa), E 100
terms of the normalised FOS, i.e. Fn = Fi/Fs, where Fs is the FOS Poisson’s ratio, υ 0.3
Cohesion (kPa), c′ 8
evaluated during the analysis. In order to have a comparable data, Shape parameter, m 0.4475
the normalised safety factor, Fn defined as the FOS at each time Scaling suction (kPa), P0 1.411
step to the initial FOS (Rahimi, Rahardjo, and Leong 2011), is Residual saturation, θr 0.049
used in the study.

Soil properties
The three different soil types namely loose, medium and dense
are considered to the study the response of silty sand slope sub-
jected to three different main rainfall events. The properties of
all these soil types are given in Table 1, in which ks = saturated
permeability, γd = dry unit weight, n = porosity, φ′ = friction angle
and ψ = dilation angle.
The shear strength and soil hydraulic properties as given in
(Cai and Ugai 2004) are kept constant for all the cases to ensure
that the changes in stability of slopes are only attributed to the
changes in denseness of the soil. Table 2 gives the engineering
and hydraulic properties of the soil slope. Figure 2 shows the soil
water characteristic curve of soil.

Results and discussion Figure 2. The soil water characteristic curve of soil (Cai and Ugai 2004).

The three typical rainfall intensities that are possible in residual

soil slopes, i.e. I = 0.1, 1, 10 ks are applied on the slope section
to study the effects of rainfall intensities on the stability. Before
the application of these main rainfall intensities, an antecedent
rainfall of 2000 mm in one-year period is applied over the slope
section. The above-mentioned rainfall intensities are applied
over the homogeneous soil slopes having three different densi-
ties namely loose, medium and dense. The corresponding relative
densities for the loose, medium and dense soils are 0.15, 0.4 and
0.73, respectively.
The pore-water pressure at time, t  =  0  h represents the
pore-water pressure measured after the antecedent rainfall. After
the application of main rainfall event, the increase in pore-water
pressure is observed for the loose and medium soils. Due to the
lower values of the saturated permeability and porosity corre-
sponding to the dense soil, the water did not infiltrate during
the rainfall and it flowed as surface runoff. The results in the
form of variations in pore-water pressure distribution, degree of
saturation, shear strain increment and displacements at Section

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Figure 3. (a) Variation of pore pressure at crest for Section x–x with I = 0.1 ks, (b) Variation of pore pressure at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 0.1 ks, (c) Variation of pore
pressure at crest for Section x–x with I = 1 ks, (d) Variation of pore pressure at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 1 ks, (e) Variation of pore pressure at crest for Section x–x
with I = 10 ks, (f) Variation of pore pressure at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 10 ks.
x–x and y–y are provided. The FOS values with varying rainfall
duration are obtained and provided in the form of plots. The plots
depicting the critical slip surfaces are also given along with the
shear strain increment.
The following abbreviations are used in the figures: L = loose
soil, M = medium soil, D = dense soil, pp = pore-water pres-
sure, FOS  =  factor of safety, Fi/Fs  =  initial FOS/FOS during
analysis, sat = degree of saturation, ssi = shear strain increment,
Xdisp = Horizontal displacement, Ydisp = Vertical displacement.
These abbreviations are used in the figures: for example, L_0h_
pp_0.1ks_xx can be taken as – Loose soil with rainfall intensity
of 0.1 ks depicting pore-water pressure at Section x–x of Figure
3. Similarly all other abbreviations are used accordingly and are
self-explanatory.
Suradi and Fourie (2014) conducted the parametric studies
on the Jabiru slope, Australia, considering uniform rainfall inten-
sities. It is noted that the upper bound (I = 4 ks) to lower bound
(I = 0.25 ks) intensities are sensitive to the rate of decrease in
FOS towards minimum FOS. It is concluded that the rainfall
intensities higher than the upper bound do not increase the rain-
water infiltration, whereas the rainfall intensities lower than the
lower bound cannot saturate the surface soils. The three rainfall
intensities considered in this study are representative of the lower
and upper bound intensities occurring in the present study area.
Effect of rainfall on pore-water pressure generation
An antecedent total rainfall of 2000 mm (I = 6.43 × 10−8 m/s)
is applied to the slope section up to one-year period in order
to simulate the antecedent groundwater conditions prior to the
main rainfall event. Figure 3(a) and (b) show the evolution of
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING   5
pore-water pressures with rainfall duration (i.e. time) for a rain-
fall intensity, I = 0.1 ks. For the slope section with loose soil con-
dition [see Figure 3(a)], at the crest of the slope (Section x–x),
the pore pressure increases gradually from −5.6 kPa at 0 h rainfall
to −0.90 kPa at 84 h rainfall. For the slope section with medium
soil condition, the variation in pore pressure is not observed
at a depth of 2 m from the crest of the slope. For the slope sec-
tion with dense soil conditions, no change in pore pressure is
observed all along the depth of the slope at Section x–x. The
pore pressure remains constant for dense soil throughout the
duration of the rainfall (84 h). This is mainly due to the lower
permeability and porosity thereby restricting the infiltration of
water in the slope.
Figure 3(b) shows the variation of pore pressure for the case
of loose, medium and dense soil conditions at Section y–y, 2 m
from the toe with I = 0.1 ks. The variations in pore pressures at
the surface of the slope near to toe for the loose, medium and
dense soil conditions are −3, −4 and −4.4 kPa, respectively, at
time t = 0 h. At time t = 84 h, the pore pressure values for the
loose, medium and dense soil conditions are 0, 0.82 and −3.7 kPa,
respectively.
Figure 3(c)–(f) depict the variations of pore pressure with
depth for I  =  1 ks and I  =  10 ks, respectively, for all the three
soil conditions. The difference in magnitude of pore pressure
variations for I  =  1 and 10 ks is negligible. The pore pressure
variation at the crest of the slope and at a depth of 4 m from
the crest (Section x–x) for the loose soil condition having I = 1
ks increases gradually from −5.6 to −6 kPa at t = 0 h to 0.3 and
21 kPa at t = 17 h, respectively. The gain in pore pressure at the
slope surface and at a depth of 4 m from the crest of the slope
(Section x–x) are 100 and 128%, respectively, and is responsible
 6   A. S. CHATRA ET AL.
for the reduction of the FOS of slope to 0.92. It can be stated that
a rain storm of intensity, I = 1 ks occurring for 17 h of duration
is responsible for inducing instability in the slope with loose soil
conditions. This particular rainfall event can be considered as a
triggering event for the slope under consideration.
The pore pressures at the surface of the slope near to toe at
time t = 0 h are −3.5, −3.9 and −4.4 kPa, respectively, for the slope
sections with loose, medium and dense soil conditions. After the
application of rainfall intensity of 1 ks, at time t = 17 h, the pore
pressures are observed to be 0.47, 0.46 and −3.6  kPa, respec-
tively, for the slope sections with loose, medium and dense soil
conditions. It is seen from Figure 3(c) and (d) that for the slope
section with loose soil condition, there is 113.5% increase in the
pore pressure and for the medium soil the increase is 111.6%.
The increase in pore pressures at Sections x–x and y–y further
increases the wetting front depth with time thereby bringing the
slope to the point of instability. In the case of dense soil slope,
no major differences in the pore pressure values are observed.
This is attributed to the lower permeability and porosity of the
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dense soil.
Effect of rainfall on stability of slope
The changes in FOS values with rainfall duration for the slope
sections having loose, medium and dense soil conditions are
Figure 4. (a) Variation of factor of safety with time for I = 0.1 ks, (b) Variation of factor of safety with time for I = 1 ks, (c) Variation of factor of safety with time for I = 10 ks,
(d) Normalised factor of safety with time for I = 0.1 and 1 ks.
shown in Figure 4(a)–(d). The rate of decrease in FOS values for
the loose and medium soils is rapid till 48 and 12 h, respectively,
for the rainfall intensity of 0.1 ks [see Figure 4(a)]. For the case
of dense soil slope, the FOS values remain unchanged over the
entire duration of the rainfall and for the medium soil slope; the
FOS values remain constant after 12 h of rainfall.
Figure 4(b) and (c) show the variations of FOS values with
time for the intensity of rainfall equal to 1 and 10 ks, respectively.
For both the intensities, the magnitude and trends of FOS val-
ues with time is similar. It can be observed that for I = 1 ks and
I = 10 ks, the variations of pore pressures [see Figure 3(b) and
(c)] and FOS values are almost same. For further analysis, the
rainfall intensities, I = 0.1 ks and I = 1 ks are only considered for
the loose and medium soil slope sections. For the slope section
with loose soil condition, a FOS of 1.7 was obtained at the end
of antecedent rainfall duration. For the same slope with rainfall
intensity, I = 1 ks, at the end of 17 h of rainfall, the FOS value
reduced to 0.92 thereby inducing the instability in the slope. This
situation can be considered as a rain-induced slope failure for
the slope under consideration.
Rahimi, Rahardjo, and Leong (2011) proposed a normal-
ised FOS in order to compare the low conductivity and high
conductivity soils subjected to different rainfall patterns. A
similar attempt has been made in the present study to compare
the FOS values for loose, medium and dense soil slopes with

three different rainfall intensities. Figure 4(d) shows the nor-
malised safety factors for the three slope sections with three
different rainfall intensities. For the intensity of rainfall equal
to 0.1 times, the saturated permeability of the loose, medium
and dense soil slopes, the reduction in FOS values is 15, 10 and
0.7%, respectively.
The decrease in FOS values for the slopes with loose, medium
and dense soil conditions for I = 1 and 10 ks is 45, 17 and 0.7%,
respectively, from their corresponding initial values. It is seen
from the results that a negligible decrease in the FOS value is
noted for the case of dense soil slope. The normalised FOS of
0.55 for the loose soil slope comes under the failed state as this
value corresponds to a FOS of less than 1.
Effect of rainfall on degree of saturation
Figure 5(a) and (b) show the variations of degree of saturation
for loose and medium soil slopes with time for I = 0.1 ks. The
degrees of saturation near the crest and at Section y–y, 2 m from
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the toe of the slope for the loose soil condition at time t = 0 h are
15.7 and 14.7%, respectively, and after 84 h of rainfall, the final
degrees of saturation observed at the crest and toe of the slope
are 81 and 82.4%, respectively. For the medium soil condition,
a decrease in degree of saturation is observed for I = 0.1 ks at
t = 0, 84 h up to the depth of 1 m from the crest of the slope. The
Figure 5. (a) Variation of degree of saturation at crest for Section x–x with I = 0.1 ks, (b) Variation of degree of saturation at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 0.1 ks, (c)
Variation of degree of saturation at crest for Section x–x with I = 1 ks, (d) Variation of degree of saturation at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 1 ks.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING   7
applied rainfall intensity of 0.1 ks (i.e. 1 × 10−8 m/s) is smaller
than the antecedent rainfall intensity of 6.43 × 10−8 m/s which
results in the decrease of the degree of saturation.
A variation of degree of saturation with rainfall duration is
shown in Figure 5(c) and (d) for the rainfall intensity equal to
saturated permeability of the soil. The degree of saturation along
Section x–x reduces from 15% at the surface to 7% at a depth of
1 m for the loose soil at t = 0 h. There after the degree of satura-
tion remains constant along the depth. At t = 17 h of rainfall, the
soil along the depth is completely saturated. At rainfall duration
of 17 h, the increase of pore-water pressure caused the slope to
fail by fully developing the critical slip surface. For I = 1 ks, the
degree of saturation for the medium soil condition is 98% at
t = 0 h up to a depth of 1 m from the crest of the slope. For the
remaining depth 1 to 4  m, the degree of saturation decreases
from 98 to 10%. At t = 17 h, the rain water infiltrated all along
the depth of the slope thereby fully saturating the slope. Even
after the saturation, the medium soil slope is stable due to lesser
increment in pore-water pressure [see Figure 4(c)].
Strain response of slope during rainfall
The rainfall infiltration which leads to reduction in matric suc-
tion also changes the shear strength and unit weight of the soil.
The plots of shear strain increment with time for loose soil slope
 8   A. S. CHATRA ET AL.
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Figure 6. (a) Variation of shear strain increment at crest for Section x–x with I = 0.1 ks, (b) Variation of shear strain increment at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 0.1 ks,
(c) Variation of shear strain increment at crest for Section x–x with I = 1 ks, (d) Variation of shear strain increment at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 1 ks, (e) Shear strain
increment after 12 h of rainfall for loose soil slope, I = 1 ks, (f) Shear strain increment after 17 h of rainfall for loose soil slope, I = 1 ks.

Figure 7. (a) Variation of horizontal displacement at crest for Section x–x with I = 0.1 ks, (b) Variation of horizontal displacement at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 0.1 ks,
(c) Variation of horizontal displacement at crest for Section x–x with I = 1 ks, (d) Variation of horizontal displacement at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 1 ks.

are shown in Figure 6(a)–(d) for I = 0.1 and 1 ks. Figure 6(c) (i.e.
I = 1 ks) depicts the variation of the shear strain increment along
Section x–x at t = 0 and 17 h which allow the identification of
the most active shear zones for loose soil condition. The subse-
quent increase in rainfall duration helps in the development of
progressive failure mechanism [see Figure 6(e) and (f)]. For the
case of I = 0.1 ks, no major changes in shear strain increment is
observed for both the loose and medium soil slopes
Figure 6(e) depicts the plot of shear strain increment after
12 h of rainfall for the loose soil slope with I = 1 ks. It can be
seen from the figure that the slope is still stable. With increas-
ing rainfall duration, distinct shear bands are formed leading
to failure along a critical slip surface. Large irreversible shear
deformations have occurred after 17 h of rainfall at the upper
portion of the slope. The most probable slip surface originated
from the toe of the slope and moved towards the top surface as
shown in Figure 6(f).
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Horizontal deformation response of slope during rainfall
The variations of horizontal displacements at Sections x–x and
y–y, 2 m from toe of the slope for the loose and medium soil
slopes are depicted in Figure 7(a)–(d) for I = 0.1 and 1 ks. It is seen
from Figure 7(c) that the increase in horizontal displacement is
more for the loose soil slope compared to the medium soil slope.
The rate of increase in horizontal displacement for the loose soil
Figure 8. (a) Variation of vertical displacement at crest for Section x–x with I = 0.1 ks, (b) Variation of vertical displacement at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 0.1 ks, (c)
Variation of vertical displacement at crest for Section x–x with I = 1 ks, (d) Variation of vertical displacement at Section y–y, 2 m from toe with I = 1 ks.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING   9
slope with I = 0.1 ks is more compared to the medium soil slope.
For the case of loose soil slope, the magnitudes of horizontal
displacements are much more for I = 1 ks as compared to 0.1 ks.
The maximum values of horizontal displacements are observed
for loose soil slopes all along the depth section x–x.
The larger horizontal displacements of the loose soil slopes
are responsible for the actual mass movement involved in the
rain-induced landslides. The actual landslide mass to be involved
in the mass movement can be evaluated after the location of
the critical slip surface along with the magnitudes of horizontal
displacements and nodal velocities.
Vertical deformation response of slope during rainfall
The variations of vertical displacements at Sections x–x and y–y,
2  m from the toe of the slope for the loose and medium soil
slopes are depicted in Figure 8(a)–(d) for I = 0.1 and 1 ks. Figure
8(a) and (b) show the distribution of vertical displacements at
Sections x–x and y–y for I = 0.1 ks for the loose and medium soil
slopes. Major changes in vertical displacements are not observed
for the entire rainfall duration, i.e. t = 0–84 h. For the case of
loose soil slope, the magnitudes of vertical displacements are
much more for I = 1 ks as compared to 0.1 ks. The magnitudes
of vertical displacements vary from 1.4  m at a depth of 1  m
along Section x–x at crest to 0.94 m at a depth of 4 m [Figure
8(c)]. There is a correlation between the nodal velocities and the
 10   A. S. CHATRA ET AL.
magnitude of vertical displacements which are usually evaluated
by the coupled hydro-mechanical analysis.
Relationship between seepage velocity and vertical
displacement
In FLAC, the fluid flow equations are expressed in terms of pres-
sure in lieu of head. Therefore, the Darcy’s law can be expressed
in terms of pressure gradient as
𝜕p
vs = 𝜅
𝜕y
where vs = seepage velocity, κ = mobility coefficient and 𝜕p∕𝜕y
= rate of change of pore pressure with respect to depth in a slope.
The objective is to develop a relationship between the seepage
velocity and vertical displacement (Ydisp) evaluated considering
different rainfall intensities (i.e. I = 0.1 ks, and I = 1 ks) and dura-
tions at a depth of 4 m from the crest for the loose and medium
soil slope sections.
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The first step is to develop the expression for the pore pres-
sure as a function of depth for different rainfall intensities and
durations. The relationship is of fourth-order polynomial which
fits better with the FLAC results. Further, the rate of change of
pore pressure at a depth of 4 m is calculated for different rainfall
intensities and durations. Using Equation (13), seepage veloc-
ity is evaluated for the loose and medium soil conditions for
I = 0.1 and 1 ks. The relationships between the seepage velocity
Figure 9. (a) Geometry and finite difference mesh of instrumented site (Ng et al. 2003), (b) Comparison of measured and simulated values of pore pressure distribution at
a depth of 0.6 m from berm (R2), (c) Comparison of measured and simulated values of pore pressure distribution at a depth of 1.2 m from berm (R2).
and vertical displacement are established using the non-linear
regression. Equation (14) provides the relationship between vs
and Ydisp for the loose soil condition with I = 1 ks for the rainfall
duration of t = 0 to 17 h. Equation (15) gives the relationship
between vs and Ydisp for the loose soil condition with I = 0.1 ks
for the rainfall duration of t = 0 to 17 h. Similarly, Equation (16)
gives the relationship between vs and Ydisp for the loose soil con-
dition with I = 0.1 ks for the rainfall duration of t = 17 to 84 h,
which is a rational fit, correlates better with the FLAC results.
The correlations are given as below:
(13)
2
vs = 430.0881 − 1040.17 Ydisp + 770.3924 Ydisp
3 4 (14)
− 159.77 Ydisp + 7.69238 Ydisp
2
vs = 7.38252 + 67.7801 Ydisp − 1174.12 Ydisp
(15)
3 4
+ 6496.222 Ydisp − 10435 Ydisp
( )
1
vs = 2 (16)
0.10992 + 0.14684 Ydisp − 0.4282 Ydisp
where Ydisp is expressed in mm units and vs is in mm/h.
Equations (17) and (18) provide the relationship between vs
and Ydisp for I = 1 and 0.1 ks, respectively, for the medium soil
conditions at a depth of 4 m from the crest. The correlations
are:

Table 3. Engineering and hydraulic properties of the soil (Ng et al. 2003).
Soil properties Measured values
Mechanical parameters  
 Unit weight (kN/m3), γd 15.2
 Elastic modulus (kPa), E 10000
  Poisson’s ratio, υ 0.33
 Effective cohesion(kPa), c′ 16.7
 Effective friction angle, degrees 28.7
Hydraulic parameters  
  Saturated permeability (m/s), ks 3.6 × 10−7
  Scaling suction (kPa), P0 5 following conclusions are drawn:
  Shape parameter, m 0.1
2 groundwater table corresponding to the antecedent condi-
vs = 2.07098 − 3.21279 Ydisp + 44.15854 Ydisp
(17)
3
− 206.368 Ydisp 4
− 293.7865 Ydisp
( )
1
vs = 2 (18)
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0.10359 + 0.0993 Ydisp − 0.36238 Ydisp
where Ydisp is expressed in mm units and vs is in mm/h.
Validation studies
Ng et al. (2003) instrumented a slope at Hubei province, China.
The geometry of the slope section is shown in Figure 9(a). The
slope was inclined at an angle of 22°. Table 3 gives the engi-
neering and hydraulic properties of the soil slope. The response
of the slope subjected to an artificial rainfall event was moni-
tored. The measured pore pressure response is compared with
the results obtained from the finite difference analysis. The pore
pressures were measured at two different depths of 0.6 and 1.2 m
from the surface of the berm, i.e. Point R2. Figure 9(b) and (c)
shows the comparison of finite difference results with that of the
field measured pore pressure values at depths of 0.6 and 1.2 m,
respectively. The artificial rainfall was applied in two cycles; each
cycle consisted of rainfall period followed by no-rain period. A
difference in pore pressure values between the field and finite
difference results is observed at the beginning of the first rainfall
event. Based on the comparison, it is noted that the FLAC results
are agreeing reasonably well with those of the field observations.
Conclusions
The numerical simulations of rain-induced instability are per-
formed with finite difference method using FLAC. The effects
of rain infiltration on the progressive slope deformations and
the formation of a shear failure mechanism are studied for three
different soil slopes. Intensities of rainfall equal to 0.1, 1 and 10
ks are considered for the stability analysis, where ks is the satu-
rated hydraulic conductivity of the soil. These rainfall intensi-
ties are applied over the slope right after the antecedent rainfall
which provided initial conditions for the stability analysis. The
variations of pore-water pressure and FOS under these three
rainfall intensities are evaluated for the unsaturated–saturated
slope sections having loose, medium and dense soil conditions.
The FOS values are evaluated using the shear strength reduction
technique. The deformation and strain responses of the slopes
are evaluated under rainfall infiltration. The numerical results of
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING   11
the present study have greater promise in the practical stability
analysis of the rain-induced earth slope instability. Actual rainfall
data can be used in the simulation of pore pressure generation
thereby giving the information about the stability of the slope on
real-time basis and the same can be utilised in the early warning
system. This information can be used to advantage in the land-
slide hazard assessment. Based on the results obtained for the
chosen slope section, soil properties and rainfall intensities, the
• During rainfall infiltration, the pore pressures increased
due to the dissipation of matric suction and increase in the
tions of the slope. For the slope with loose soil condition,
the increase in pore-water pressure is more as compared
to the slopes with medium and dense soil conditions for
all the rainfall intensities. The rate of change in pore-water
pressure is faster for the slope with loose soil condition
followed by the slopes with medium and dense soil condi-
tions. At 4 m depth from the crest of the slope, the increase
in pore-water pressure is highest for the slope with loose
soil condition. The increase in pore-water pressure is more
at the toe portion of the slope for medium and loose soil
for all the rainfall intensities (i.e. I = 0.1, 1 ks).
• No major changes in pore-water pressures are observed
for the slope with dense soil condition owing to the lower
permeability and porosity.
• For the rainfall intensity of 0.1 ks, the rate of decrease in
FOS value is faster for the slope with medium soil condi-
tion followed by the slopes with loose and dense soil con-
ditions. All the slopes are stable for the rainfall intensity of
0.1 ks occurring for the duration of 84 h. The FOS of the
medium soil slope is reduced to 1.61 from the initial value
of 1.77 for the rainfall intensity of 0.1 ks for the duration
of 17 h. The loose soil slope has failed (FOS = 0.92) after
17 h of rainfall having an intensity equal to the saturated
hydraulic conductivity of the soil.
• At rainfall intensity equal to 0.1 ks, the final degree of
saturation of the loose soil slope is 82% at 4 m from the
crest (i.e. Point A) for the entire duration of the rainfall.
At rainfall intensity equal to 0.1 ks, the medium soil slope
is saturated up to a depth of 2 m and thereafter the degree
of saturation decreases with depth for the rainfall duration
of 84 h.
• The higher horizontal and vertical displacements have
been observed for the loose soil slopes for all the rainfall
intensities, but the magnitudes of displacements are much
higher for the rainfall intensities equal to 1 ks for the given
slope geometry and soil properties.
• The correlations between the seepage velocity and vertical
displacements are developed for the loose and medium
soil conditions for different rainfall intensities and dura-
tions. These correlations are applicable to the specific slope
geometry and soil properties chosen in the present study.
• With increasing rainfall duration, the distinct shear bands
are formed in the slope section leading to failure along
the critical slip surface. Large irreversible shear defor-
mations have occurred in the loose soil slope after 17  h
of rainfall at the upper portion for I = 1 ks. The coupled
 12   A. S. CHATRA ET AL.

hydro-mechanical analysis has given detailed informa- σ  Total normal stress

tion on the physical mechanism during rainfall. The most ψ  Dilation angle
probable failure surface is originated at the toe and then γd  Dry unit weight of soil
spreads to the middle and upper part of the slope surface υ  Poisson’s ratio
as a predominant failure mechanism.

Limitation
The present study has considered uniform rainfall events and
specific soil types for the slope and accordingly the numerical
simulations have been conducted using the FLAC. However, it is
possible to include different rainfall patterns with non-uniform
rainfall intensities in the numerical simulation of the rain-in-
duced slope instability.
List of symbols
c′  Cohesion of soil
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Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
ORCID
Adarsh S. Chatra   http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3595-888X
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