Professional Documents
Culture Documents
MBCQ724D
PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND
CONTRACT ADMINISTRATION
www.cce.upes.ac.in
Course Design
Advisory Council
Chairman
Mr. Sharad Mehra
Members
Dr. S J Chopra Dr. Sunil Rai Dr. Veena Dutta
Chancellor Vice Chancellor Registrar
Author
Introduction to PProject
roject ___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Defining a Project
Consider the following activities:
• A flyover is built in a city.
• Metro rail is constructed in New Delhi.
• A ship is built for the navy.
• A new residential building is constructed.
Do you see anything common in all these activities?
Now consider some more activities:
• A company launches a new product development program.
• A manufacturing organization begins a survey for assessing
customer satisfaction with its products.
• A manufacturing organization constructs a new warehouse.
• A new machine is procured and installed.
Do you see anything common in all these activities? Do you see
anything common in first set and second set of activities?
You can observe that although all these activities are entirely
different from each other, they all are temporary in nature,i.e., they
start one day and finish one day, contrary to mass manufacture
where the operations are perpetual.
All these activities described above fall in the category of projects.
A project can be defined as a temporary endeavor to achieve a
specific,well-defined objective.
Project Management and Contract Administration
4
Notes
Projects in Contemporary Organizations
Initially, the projects were considered different from the conventional
___________________
manufacturing systems. The word project was associated with large
___________________ projects like infrastructure projects, shipbuilding, construction, etc.
But in due course of time, it was realized that if conventional
___________________ manufacturing systems can adopt the project methodology, it results
___________________ in higher efficiency for the organization.
___________________
Figure 1.1: Projects in contemporary organizations
___________________
The parent organization selects the team leader and the team
___________________ members from its different divisions as per requirement of skills
and qualifications for the project. The project team is responsible
___________________
for interacting with the customer and ensure that the outcome of
the project meets the requirements of the customer.
Note that the customer for the product may be the parent
organization itself, for example, development of an IT system for a
company’s operations or construction of a new warehouse or
installation of new technology.
Characteristics of Projects
The projects differ from traditional forms of production and are
characterized by some unique features as follows:
• The projects have a purpose: Each project has a well-defined
purpose or objective. For example, the project of new product
development may have the objective of achieving a competitive
edge. The construction of a flyoveron the road may have a
purpose of reducing traffic congestion. The purpose of
constructing an underpass on the road may be to provide a
safe road cross to pedestrians.
• The projects have a life cycle: The projects, as already
discussed, are temporary endeavors. While the projects are in
progress, they pass through well-defined stages of life cycle.
• Each project produces a unique product: The projects are
not repetitive manufacturing activities. The product of a project
is unique. Future projects will never create the same
specifications of a product.
• Interdependence: Each project is comprised of a number of
tasks. All the tasks involved in a project are unique
independent entities, but they depend upon each other for
Unit 1: Introduction to Project
5
their performance. For example, a specific task may not be
Notes
able to start unless some of the precedingtasksare completed.
___________________
Project Life Cycle
___________________
One of the characteristics of projects that we discussed in the last
section is that the projects are temporary endeavors and ___________________
characterized by a life cycle. Although the projects differ in size,
___________________
nature, product, and requirements, the life cycle of all projects is
typically similar. The phases of the life cycle of projects are shown ___________________
in the form of a graph below. The x-axis of the graph indicates the
___________________
time and the y-axis indicates the level of effort required during
various stages. ___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
6
Planning: The selection phase is followed by planning the project.
Notes
During this phase, various aspects relating to the projectare planned
which include scope definition, resource requirement planning, skills
___________________
required for the project, manpower requirement, procurement
___________________ requirement, financial planning, and specification definition. The
outcome of this process is a project plan which remains to be a
___________________
roadmap to the project. The project plan is also used as a tool for
___________________ project control. Another important aspect of this phase is identifying
the risks involved during the project life and planning to counter
___________________ these risks in the event of them becoming a reality.
___________________ Scheduling: The project time schedules are developed during this
___________________ phase. The project is broken into smaller tasks and work packages,
and the time required for individual tasksis assessed. The breaking
___________________ of the project into smaller tasks and work packages is called Work
Breakdown Structure (WBS). The interdependence of the tasksis
___________________
also established during this phase. The time required for completion
___________________ of the project is then assessed using the compiled information of
tasks interdependence and task time requirements. Various
techniques used for scheduling are PERT, CPM, Gantt chart, and
Milestone analysis.
Monitoring and control: Once the project is in process, it is
necessary to ensure that the various activities are completed at the
scheduled time and within decided budget. Exceeding time or cost
will lead to schedule overrun or cost overrun. Also, since the projects
are also characterized by scarcity of resources and the simultaneous
demand for resources by different tasks and work packages, it
becomes essential to apply techniques for rational and optimum
utilization, and allocation of the resources in such a manner that
the impact on project objectives is minimum. The process of
comparing the project progress with plans refers to monitoring.
Control refers to identifying deviations and taking action to minimize
the impact of deviations. This phase also monitors the assessed
risks and in the event of a risk becoming a reality, responds to risk,
mitigating its impact and changes are made to the plan if necessary
due to the occurrence of the risk.
Evaluation: Evaluation refers to analyzing the project performance
to ensure that the project objectives are met. Evaluation involves
schedule performance, cost performance, specifications achievement,
actions taken to respond to risks, resource use and allocation, and
management of outsourcing and contracting. The evaluation is
carried out at the end of the project and during different stages of
project progress. The during project progress evaluation provides
the basis for taking corrective actions if needed and the end of
project evaluation is carried out to learn from the completed project
so as to perform the future projectsmore efficiently and effectively.
The technique generally used for evaluation is called project audit.
Unit 1: Introduction to Project
7
Termination: The project comes to the finishing part at this stage.
Notes
This phase identifies the need for terminating a project. Please
note that termination does not always mean successful completion
___________________
of the project. Termination of project may be a result of project
failure or changed management priorities or lack of funds and ___________________
resources. Final accounting of project is carried out in this phase,
___________________
andthe projectis closed. The project assets are distributed among
different divisions, and the project team members are returned to ___________________
their parent divisions. If the termination is due to successful
___________________
completion of the project, the product is handed over to the customer.
___________________
It is also important to understand the life cycle of the project with
reference to the speed of the project. Typically, the projects have a ___________________
slow beginning followed by quick momentum and finally a slow
finish. The following graph can help understand it. ___________________
8
require careful analysis and inspection of each part before it is
Notes
integrated. This phase may also require minor changes to the parts
of the project outcomes.
___________________
Performance
Target
Time Cost
9
reputation, loss of trust, and customer dissatisfaction but also leads
Notes
to cost overrun. Many times the schedule overruns lead to financial
compensations to the customer apart from additional expense in
___________________
resources. A project for being termed as successful needs to be
completed in scheduled time. ___________________
Overview of PProject
roject Management ___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Need for Project Management
___________________
In the last unit, it has been explained that there are three project
objectives – performance, cost, and quality. So, the project needs to
be expedited in a manner which ensures that project is completed
in planned time and cost and conforms to specifications and
performance standards. In order to achieve this objective, it is
necessary to make use of tools and techniques which help in
managing these objectives of the project.
In addition, the project is executed by a project team, members of
which come from different functional areas and conflicts in the
team are inevitable. Conflicts may also arise between the project
team leader and customer or the project team leader and parent
organization’s management.
Riskis involved at each stage of the project. The risk needs to be
anticipated and managed in a manner that it does not have any
adverse impact on project performance.
Inability to effectively manage any of the above-mentioned aspects
may lead to project underperformance or even the project failure.
Project management is the set of concepts, tools, and techniques to
effectively manage all aspects of the project effectively during all
stages of the project.
12
project needs to be defined unambiguously in agreement with the
Notes
customer to avoid any conflict later. The scope management also
includes the management of scope creep (change in project
___________________
specifications by the project team or the customer).
___________________
Time management: Completion of a project in scheduled time is
___________________ crucial to its success. The aspect of time management involves project
scheduling, activity scheduling, identifying the slack of activities
___________________ (time by which activities can be delayed without delaying the project),
___________________ monitoring of progress with respect to time and corrective actions
if needed.
___________________
Cost Management: The budget is one of the constrained resources
___________________ for projects. Lack of financial resources may cause a project to shut
down before completion. So it is necessary to estimate the cost
___________________
involved in the project and also the cost involved in individual
___________________ tasks of the project. Cost management is about analyzing and
anticipating the cost involved in a project and its continuous
___________________
monitoring to avoid cost overrun. It involves planning, budgeting,
allocating and controlling the project cost.
Human resource management: People involved in a project are
important to its success. Forming the right and competent project
team is necessary for any project. Also, since the personnel in the
team are from different functional groups, it is necessary to define
responsibilities unambiguously and avoid any conflicts. Human
resource management is about selection of personnel for the project,
team development, managing conflicts, and motivating and leading
the team.
Cost Time
Management Management
Human
Scope Project
Resource
Management Management
Management
Procurement Risk
Management Management
13
assessing the gravity of risks, planning for responding to risks and
Notes
actually responding to risk if it materializes. Risk management
also involves management of changes in project plans if needed as
___________________
a result of a riskactually happening.
___________________
Procurement management: Outsourcing is an integral part of
projects. Organizations outsource part of projects either because of ___________________
lack of in-house competence or because outsourcing may be
economical as compared to doing it in-house. The outsourced part ___________________
is not in direct control of the project leader, so it is essential to ___________________
install controls to ensure the quality of work outsourced.
Procurement management is about selecting vendors, contracting ___________________
and contract management.
___________________
The following diagram illustrates the common tools and techniques ___________________
used for project management during various stages of its life cycle.
___________________
• WBS
• Budgeting
• Work element
costing
Level of effort
• Risk
identification
• Risk • CPM
assessment • PERT
• Risk response • Slack • Project audit
development • Gantt chart • Project audit
• Resource life cycle • Extinction
leveling • Audit report • Addition
• Resource • Integration
allocation • Starvation
Time
Conception phase
This phase is about generating ideas for projects. The projects ideas
generated during this phase are subjected to project selection in the
next phase. The techniques involved during this phase include idea
generation and screening. The sources of idea generation may be
brainstorming, or idea shared by any stakeholder of the organization.
Screening is about evaluating the viability of the generated ideas.
Project Management and Contract Administration
14
Selection phase
Notes
This phase evaluates the screened project ideas with an objective to
___________________ prioritize them in view of the management’s priorities and their
___________________
significance to organization’s objectives. The various techniques
include numeric (profitability) models, numeric (scoring) models and
___________________ non-numeric models.
___________________ Numeric (profitability) models evaluate project ideas on the basis of
financial feasibility and include payback period, rate of return and
___________________
net present value.
___________________
Numeric (scoring) models compare the project ideas on subjective
___________________ factors and include unweighted 0-1 scoring, weighted factor scoring
and unweighted factor scoring models.
___________________
Non-numeric models, in fact, do not include sacred cow, competitive
___________________
necessity and operative necessity.
___________________
Planning phase
This phase is about planning the project with respect to cost, risk,
and resource requirement.
The techniques used for cost planning involve work breakdown
structure, work element costing, and budgeting.
Tools used for planning risk include risk identification, risk
assessment, and risk response development.
The technique used for planning resource requirements is work
breakdown analysis.
Scheduling
This phase of project management plans the time schedules for
various tasks involved in the project and also for the project in
totality. The start and finish time of varioustasksis determined
along with slack of the tasks. The critical activities of the project
are identified which if delayed, will cause the project to be delayed.
The interdependence of various tasksis also established during this
phase. The techniques used during this phase involve Critical path
method (CPM), project evaluation and review technique (PERT),
Gantt chart and milestone analysis. The optimal utilization of
resources is also planned during this phase which uses techniques
like resource allocation and resource leveling.
15
specific time with the planned schedule and planned budget for
Notes
various tasks of the project. Analytical techniques like cost
performance index (CPI), schedule performance index (SPI), critical
___________________
ratio (CR), milestone analysis and tracking signal are used during
this phase. Gantt chart is also used to compare performance with ___________________
plans.
___________________
The phase also monitors the identified risks and in the event of a
___________________
risk becoming a reality uses risk response control to minimize the
impact of the occurred risk. ___________________
The occurrence of the risk and the action taken to counter the risk ___________________
may sometimes lead to the requirement of reducing total time for
___________________
finishing the project, and the technique of project crashing is used
to evaluate the extent to which a project can be crashed and the ___________________
cost involved for crashing the project.
___________________
Evaluation
___________________
It is important to evaluate the performance of project at various
stages of its progress to identify any hidden or probable problems
so that corrective actions can be taken before the problems cause
major adverse impact on project objectives. The tool used for
evaluation is project audit, which involves an in-depth examination
of the project performance on various performance criteria. The
result of audit is an audit report which forms the basis of taking
corrective measures for the project and preventive measures for the
future project.
Termination
This phase recognizes the need for terminating a project with or
without successful completion. The conditions leading to project
termination include extinction, addition, integration, and starvation.
Review Questions
1. What are the various aspects involved in project management?
2. The success of a project depends on the use of appropriate
project management tools and techniques. Elaborate.
3. What is the importance of audit in the successful completion
of a project? How it helps the future project leaders?
4. Name various profitability based numeric models for project
selection.
5. Effective human resource management is essential for
successful completion of projects. Explain the statement.
17
Unit 3 Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
Can you identify the project proposals in the above scenario?
___________________
Consider a top management meeting of ABC Corporation in progress.
___________________
Managing Director: Gentlemen, we have called for this meeting to
discuss the recently observed fall in our sales. There seems to be a
serious quality issue which we need to resolve.
Marketing Manager: Sir, we need to launch a customer survey
project to get direct information about customer satisfaction and
complaints. The sales have recently dropped and the customer loyalty
seems to be shifting to a new competitor.
Product Manager: I understand the competitors have provided many
innovative features in their product. Why don’t we go for redesign
and development of additional features in our existing product or
develop a new product model itself? That may help in building customer
trust and loyalty.
Marketing Manager: I think we can go ahead with product design
part after the customer needs are understood through a survey.
Production Manager: We have been using our existing technology
to the full potential. I was just thinking of placing a request for new
technology procurement and installation. I feel that the new technology
will be able to raise the quality standards of the existing product to
the extent that may again attract the buyers to us. These days we are
just producing and stocking, sales not being able to push products in
the market.
Materials Manager: That reminds me, we need to build a new
warehouse to stock our raw materials and products. The current space
is not adequate to store all we have. We are sometimes forced to keep
our material in the open. Recently there was a theft also at night. I
really don’t know what our security is doing.
Security in charge: We are managing this large premise with just
a handful of security guards. If the company is not willing to employ
more staff, at least the boundary wall may be raised by another three
feet with wire fencing and halogen light.
Project Management and Contract Administration
18
The various project proposals that crop up can be:
Notes
• A customer satisfaction survey
___________________
• New product development
___________________ • Existing product redesign and modification
___________________ • New technology purchase and installation
___________________ • Construction of a new warehouse
___________________ • Raising and fencing of boundary wall with halogen lighting
___________________
Need for Project Selection
___________________
A number of project ideas may crop up as a result of brainstorming
___________________ or suggestions or necessity. Organisations rarely can initiate all
projects simultaneously because of resource scarcity. The project
___________________
ideas are subjected to screening to identify the project ideas which
___________________ are significant to organization’s objectives. Even the ideas for the
project, which have been termed as significant to the organization,
maybe a good number and it becomes necessary to select project
proposals for implementation. It requires prioritization of the
available project ideas.
Project selection is the process of evaluating and analyzing the
available project proposals to identify and prioritize the projects on
the criteria of their significance to organizational goals and the
budget constraints.
19
Employee Customer Notes
suggestions requests
Management ___________________
priorities
___________________
Operational needs Competitive
needs ___________________
Project Ideas
___________________
___________________
Screening
___________________
___________________
___________________
Significant Reject
and viable? ___________________
___________________
Determine
selection criteria
Choose a project
selection model
Select
20
The numeric models are based on either financial analysis of
Notes
profitability or on factor scoring on a defined scale. The non-numeric
models do not, in fact, rely upon the formal analysis but are based
___________________
on situation or management priority.
___________________
Numeric models
___________________
Numeric models further are of two types:
___________________
Profitability based: These models evaluate the financial viability
___________________ of the projects. The models in this category include:
___________________ • Payback period • Present value
___________________ • Net present value • Benefit-cost ratio
___________________ • Rate of return
Non-numeric models
These models are based on the subjective situational selection of
projects. Non-numeric models include:
• Sacred cow
• Operating necessity
• Product line extension
• Competitive necessity
• Comparative benefit model (Q-Sort)
Project
selection
Numeric Non-Numeric
Comparative
Net present Weighted benefit
value factor scoring model
21
Non-Numeric Models Notes
Sacred Cow Model
___________________
This model selects the project on the basis of wish and enthusiasm
___________________
of some senior and powerful manager in the organization. Being
the dream of senior officer, it is accepted by the junior managers ___________________
although they may not be fully convinced of the idea. The junior
___________________
managers in such situation are unable to express their disagreement
even though they may have all the doubts in the success of the ___________________
project.
___________________
Many times in organizations we find senior officers saying in a
___________________
meeting:
• Why don’t we develop an IT system that merges all our ___________________
operations and also connects us to the customer..................... ___________________
• I think we should try to design software for.....................
___________________
• Can’t we initiate a project for..............................
Such suggestions of the officer are taken as an instruction by the
junior officers and project is initiated.
The model is sacred in the sense that the project remains in existence
until it is successfully finished or the senior officer himself realizes
that the idea will not work and terminates the project midway.
Operating Necessity
The project may be selected for implementation because it is
necessary for the plant to remain in operation.
If heavy rains are expected, and a lot of material is stocked in the
open, it may be necessary to construct a covered warehouse
immediately. If a power cut is expected for a long duration in next
few months, installation of generator becomes necessary. If
government policy restricts the operation of industry that causes
water pollution, installation of water treatment plant may be
necessary to avoid plant shut down.
All the situations mentioned above are in the category of operating
necessity because if those projects are not initiated, the organization
shall not remain operative.
Often formal evaluation and financial viability is skipped in such
situations and project is started immediately.
Competitive Necessity
A project may be selected because it becomes essential to maintain
competitive status in the market.
Project Management and Contract Administration
22
Consider the following situations
Notes
• The competitor has introduced new features in the product
___________________ with reduced price threatening the loss of market share to the
organization.
___________________
• The competitor has developed software which makes it possible
___________________
for customers to contact and order online and the product can
___________________ be delivered at the doorstep, threatening shift of customer
loyalty because of ease.
___________________
What action does the management of the organization is expected
___________________
to take to counter the threat and retain its market share?
___________________
The first situation would call for a redesign of the product that will
___________________ enhance product specification and can be produced at lower cost. In
the second situation, it may be necessary for the organization to
___________________
develop a system that allows better reach to the customers.
___________________
Both the situations described above make it necessary for the
organization to initiate a project for product design and development
or customer contact system development. Projects are necessary
because the market share and loyalty of customers to the
organization are threatened. These are the examples of project
selection on the basis of competitive necessity model.
23
A textile factory manufacturing thread initiates a project for
Notes
establishing a facility for cloth manufacturing. (Vertical Integration)
However the projects, before being initiated, are subjected to careful ___________________
financial and subjective analysis. The project is initiated if it is ___________________
found to be financially viable and meets organization’s objectives.
The payback period of the new FMCG product may be too large or ___________________
return on investment may be too low. The cost of establishing and ___________________
operating a testing house may not be economical and also the skills
needed may not be available with the organization. The distribution ___________________
channels for thread and cloth may be different with different market ___________________
segments.
___________________
Comparative Benefit Model ___________________
The selection models discussed so far consider one project at a time. ___________________
The objective of those models is to consider a project and either
accept or reject it. ___________________
24
Notes
Identify all Projects
___________________
___________________
Divide in three groups
(good, fair, poor)
___________________
___________________
___________________
Number of
Subdivide the projects
___________________ members in each
in large groups
group is < 8?
___________________
___________________
___________________
Arrange in order from
best to worst as per
___________________
merit
Determine relative
priority position of the
projects
___________________
___________________
___________________
Present Value ___________________
Present value analysis is one of the most common financial analysis ___________________
models for the projects. A project needs investment, which could
include an initial investment at time zero and subsequent
investments at different times of the project. Similarly, a project
yields returns at different times during the life of the project.
The management is interested in ascertaining the value of future
investment or future return at the present time or time zero. The
value depends upon the rate of interest. Higher the rate of interest,
lower shall be the value at zero time.
The value of a future transaction at present time, for a specific rate
of interest (also termed as the rate of discount), is called the
PRESENT VALUE of the transaction.
Present value is calculated using the following formula
F
PV =
(1 + r)n
Example
If a project is expected to generate ` 1000 at the end of 1 year and
` 5000 at the end of 2 years, calculate the present value of both the
transactions if the rate of interest is 12%.
Project Management and Contract Administration
26
Solution:
Notes
F
PV =
___________________ (1 + r ) n
___________________ For the first transaction
___________________ 1000
PV =
___________________ (1 + 0.12)1
1000
___________________ = = ` 892.9
1.121
___________________
For the second transaction
___________________
5000
PV =
___________________ (1 + 0.12) 2
___________________
5000
= = ` 3985.96
___________________ 1.12 × 1.12
Example
For the data in the example,
The factor for year 1 and rate of interest 12% is 0.89286 in the table
So present value of ` 1000, received after one year
= 0.89296 × 1000 = 892.96
The factor for year 2 and rate of interest 12% is 0.79719 in the table
So present value of ` 5000, received after two years
= 0.79719 × 5000 = 3985.95
Example
A project is expected to generate revenue of ` 7000 after five years
from now. If the rate of interest is 10%, calculate the present value
of the revenue.
7000
PV =
(1 + 0.10)5
Unit 4: Project Selection Numeric Models
27
Solution
Notes
Instead of calculating we will use the present value table
___________________
The factor for year 5 and rate of interest 10% is 0.62092 in the table
___________________
So present value of ` 7000, received after five years
___________________
= 0.0.62092 × 7000 = ` 4346.44
___________________
A project may incur a cost at time zero (initial investment) and at ___________________
various points of time during the life of the project (future
___________________
investment). Also, the project generates revenue at different points
in time during its life cycle (future revenue). The project may also ___________________
generate revenue by sale of assets at the end of project life (Salvage
value). ___________________
Net present value is the difference between the total present value ___________________
of all revenues and the total present value of all investments.
NPV = ∑ (Total present value of all revenues) −
∑ (Total present values of all investments).
A positive value of NPV indicates profit from the project while a
negative value indicates loss from the project.
Example
The expected investment and revenue from a project are given below.
The life of the project is estimated as ten years.
Year Investment (`
`) Revenue (`
`)
(Initial investment) 50,000
1 20,000
2
3 10,000
4 35,000
5 5,000
6 25,000
7
8 40,000 5,000
9
10 12,000
Salvage value 2,000
Project Management and Contract Administration
28
Calculate the net present value of the project. Should the
Notes
management take up this project? The rate of interest is 8%.
___________________ Solution
___________________ Let us identify the factors for all transactions from the PV Table
___________________ and calculate the individual present values.
___________________ 2
Use of Annuity
If the financial transaction (investment or revenue) is equal to n
number of years, calculation of PV for individual values can be
avoided by using the Present value annuity table. The Table gives
the present value factor of an annuity of ` 1 at a specific rate of
interest. This factor multiplied by annuity gives the present value
of the annuity.
Unit 4: Project Selection Numeric Models
29
Example
Notes
A project involves an investment of ` 30,000 at the end of each year
for five years. The returns are ` 25000 at the end of each year for ___________________
eight years. Calculate the NPV. The rate of interest is 10%. ___________________
Solution ___________________
The factor for an annuity for five years at 10% rate of interest is ___________________
3.79079.
___________________
Present value of investment of ` 30000 for 5 years
___________________
= 3.79079 × 30000 = ` 1,13,723.70
___________________
The factor for annuity for 8 years at 10% rate of interest is 5.33493
___________________
Present value of revenue of ` 25000 for 8 years
___________________
= 5.33493 × 25000 = ` 1,33,373.25
___________________
NPV = ∑ (Present value of all revenues)
− ∑ (Present values of all investments).
= 1,33,373.25 − 1,13,723.70
= ` 19,649.55
Example
The financial outlay (in `) of two projects is as follows:
2 20,000 25,000
5 20,000 25,000
The rate of interest is 8%. Which of the projects gives higher profits?
Project Management and Contract Administration
30
Solution
Notes
Year Project A
___________________
Investment PV PV of Return Annuity Present
___________________ Factor Investment Factor Value
for of
___________________ 5 Years Annuity
___________________ 4 20,000
5 20,000
___________________
Total 69,105.05
___________________
NPV = 79,854.20 − 69,105.05 = ` 10,749.15
Year Project A
2 25,000
5 25,000
Total 90,928.40
Project A will give higher profits because its NPV is higher than
NPV of Project B.
Payback Period
Payback period is one of the most commonly used methods to
evaluate projects on the basis of financial analysis. It determines
the period in years required to return the initial investment of the
project. The rate of interest is not taken into consideration in this
method.
Unit 4: Project Selection Numeric Models
31
The method considers the future revenues of the project and
Notes
determines the period required for payback of initial investment.
Interpolation is used if the number of years for payback is in fraction.
___________________
Example ___________________
Solution ___________________
Example ___________________
Period Investment (`
`) Return (`
`) ___________________
Initial investment 1,00,000
1 20,000
2 25,000
3 60,000
4 15,000
5 25,000
Solution
The payback at the end of 2 years = 20,000 + 25,000 = ` 45,000
For recovering, ` 1,00,000, another ` 55,000 is required. However,
in the third year, the revenue is ` 60,000. We will use interpolation
to determine payback period.
Total revenue in 3rd year = 60,000
` 60,000 is recovered in 12 months
` 55,000 will be recovered in (55,000 × 12)/60,000 = 11months
So, Payback period is 2 years and 11 months
32
project is liable to be rejected.
Notes
A common method of assessing whether a project meets the expected
___________________ return of the project is internal rate of return.
___________________ The internal rate of return is the interest rate which makes the
NPV of a project zero. If the internal rate of return is more than the
___________________
expected return, the project meets the expectations of the
___________________ management and is a candidate for being accepted.
___________________ The hit and trial method determines the internal rate of return.
___________________ Example
___________________ A project is expected to generate revenue of ` 5000 annually for five
years. If investment in the project is ` 15,000, determine the internal
___________________ rate of return. If management expects a rate of return 10%, is the
___________________ project viable?
___________________ Solution
Present value of investment = ` 19,000
For an annuity of ` 5,000 for five years:
___________________
___________________
New Delhi Laboratories Private Limited (NDL)
___________________
“Finally, we did it successfully,” Divyansh said while relaxing in the
___________________
office chair sitting in front of Anil. Anil looked at his face, exhausted
but reflecting confidence and satisfaction. ___________________
“So what have you learned during this project?” Anil asked. ___________________
“Well, it needs really a lot of time to describe the learnings from the ___________________
project, what looked simple in the beginning became an endless venture
while executing and we had a hard time bringing each piece of work ___________________
together and assemble all those pieces into a product,” Divyansh replied
___________________
his eyes lost into recollecting the memories of stressful days and
sleepless nights during past two years.
“I have all the time to listen to your experiences. And by the way, do
you think you could do better?”
“Do better? What are you coming to? You know I did my best.”
Divyansh thought for a moment and said “I think you are right.
When I think of it, I feel that I could manage the project better. But
I am better equipped for my next project now.”
“Have you been able to achieve all objectives that you planned for the
project?”
“To be honest, I did not really define the objectives when I started
with the project. But since you have asked, we have been able to
complete the project in time with reasonable deviations, and those
deviations were also the result of scope change at times. I admit, the
profits have not been up to expectation, but that was because we
ventured into a project for the first time and we could not anticipate
expenses accurately.” Divyansh replied.
Divyansh wondered where to start and then decided to start from the
day they got a query from Qatar.
Contd…
Project Management and Contract Administration
34
Notes Anil is the founder and managing director of NDL; a venture started
in 1984 with facilities for transformer oil testing. The operations of
___________________ the company later expanded to electrical maintenance of panels,
transformers, and switchgears. The company started offering a
___________________ complete solution for maintenance of power equipment, and soon it
started a new division “NDL Power.” The business of the company
___________________
expanded in a geographical territory covering clients from all over
___________________ India and later a few international contracts also. The company which
started with four employees today employs over seventy personnel in
___________________ various capacities.
___________________ Divyansh, son of Anil, joined the company in 2011 after graduating
in a management course. He joined the company as CEO of operations.
___________________ He decided to expand in international markets and in place of offering
only part services, he decided to venture into full turnkey projects.
___________________
Question for Review
___________________
Was Divyansh missing an important project objective? If yes, which
___________________
objective was he missing?
Block–II
Detailed Contents
UNIT-10: CPM
___________________
___________________
___________________
Numeric Models (Scoring Based)
___________________
The numeric models discussed above evaluate the project only on
___________________
the basis of profitability or financial returns. In practice, however,
there are a number of factors affecting project selection decision,
which are not quantifiable. An illustrative list of such factors is
given below:
• Training requirements
• Safety
• Consistent with current operations
• Availability of raw materials
• Potential market
• Government policies
• Impact on brand value and image of the organization
38
Notes Factors
Should be complementary √ √
to existing business
39
ACTIVITY Notes
A company manufacturing automobile spare parts is planning to initiate a
project for development and installation of an IT system for integrating its ___________________
marketing, operations, design, stores, and quality control sections. List the
factors that you would consider as criteria for evaluating the project. ___________________
___________________
Factor Scoring Model ___________________
The factor scoring model evaluates the project on various criteria ___________________
on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 being least qualifying and 5 being strongly
qualifying. The total score so obtained is calculated and the total ___________________
score is an indicator of the extent to which the project is compliant ___________________
to project objectives.
___________________
Factors PROJECT XYZ
___________________
1 2 3 4 5
___________________
Should not take more than one year √
to complete
40
Notes Factors Weight PROJECT XYZ
1 2 3 4 5
___________________
Should not take more than 5 √
___________________
one year to complete
___________________ Should be compliant with 2 √
___________________
government safety regulations
Review Questions
1. Compare the relative merits and demerits of different scoring
models of project selection.
2. Explain the process of selection of projects.
3. Explain project selection by Q-sort method.
4. Describe sacred cow model of project selection. How effective
can this model be for project selection?
5. What are the merits and demerits of payback period method
of project selection?
Problems
1. A project is expected to generate annual revenue of ` 54,000.
The project has a life of 10 years. The project involves an
initial investment of ` 2,20,000. Calculate the NPV of the
project if the rate of interest is 8%.
Unit 6: Project Selection Scoring Models
41
2. Two projects are under consideration. The financial outlay is
Notes
as follows:
Year 1 2 3 4
2 10,000 14,000
5 10,000 14,000
42
• Payback period
Notes
• NPV
___________________
• Internal rate of return
___________________ 5. Calculate the payback period for the following data of a project.
___________________ Initial investment ` 50,000
___________________ Returns
___________________ Year 1 2 3 4
___________________ Return 20,000 15,000 18,000 5,000
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
43
Unit 7 Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
Introduction ___________________
44
Notes
Planning for Responsibility
As already discussed, the members of the project team are drawn
___________________ from different divisions of the organization, and there may be
confusion about hierarchy and responsibility of work. Hence it is
___________________
essential to assign the responsibility of specific tasks clearly and
___________________ unambiguously so as to avoid any conflict during the project life.
___________________
Supportive responsibility: The responsibility assigned for
providing technical or managerial support to the persons with
___________________ primary or secondary responsibility. Generally, the supportive
responsibility is assigned to a person, considered as an expert in
the area of work. Supportive responsibility may be given to any
member of the organization, whether in the project team or not.
Here it is important to understand the difference between
responsibility and authority. Responsibility is the work for which a
person is accountable and answerable. Authority is the extent to
which a person can make independent decisions.
While allocating responsibility, it should be ensured that it has a
proper mix of authority also.
Allocating Responsibility
• Identify all tasks involved in the project.
• Develop the work breakdown structure.
• Allocate primary responsibility for level 1 tasks.
• Allocate responsibility for level 2 tasks in consultation with
the person responsible for level 1 tasks.
• Allocate responsibilities in this fashion up to the last level of
work packages.
• Identify the need for secondary responsibility and supportive
responsibility for all the tasks.
• Allocate the secondary and supportive responsibilities
accordingly.
consumer needs
Development of survey
1 1.1
questionnaire
Preparation of
2 1.1.2
questionnaire
Approval of
2 1.1.3
questionnaire
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
46
Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
2 1.3.4
Submission of survey
2 1.4.4 reports by consultant
after scrutiny
Analysis of survey
1 1.5 results and report
preparation
Transfer of survey
2 1.5.1
data on computer
Compilation of analysis
2
1.5.4 results with
recommendations
47
Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Project Management and Contract Administration
48
Notes
Planning for Time
One of the key performance criteria, as we have discussed before is
___________________
time. It is important to estimate the time rationally before starting
___________________ the project execution and control it throughout the progress of the
project. Schedule overrun projects (projects finishing late) not only
___________________
result in customer dissatisfaction but also result in cost overrun.
___________________ The timely completion of the project depends upon the timely
completion of the activities involved in the project. However as we
___________________
will see in subsequent units, the impact of schedule overrun of all
___________________ activities is not equal. There are some activities in the project which
even if delayed to some extent, don’t impact the project finishing
___________________
time. However, some of the activities if delayed cause the project to
___________________ be delayed in totality.
___________________ The time estimates of the project activities are determined on the
basis of:
___________________
• Estimates from records of past projects
• Experience of the project team members
• Critical study of work involved in the task
49
Time Estimate Matrix Notes
Time estimate (in days)
Level Task Task Pessimistic Most Optimistic ___________________
No. time likely time
time ___________________
50
Notes
Summary
Planning is an integral part of project management. Planning needs
___________________
to be done for time, responsibilities and work specifications. The
___________________ method of defining work specifications of a project is Work
Breakdown Structure (WBS). WBS disintegrates the project into
___________________ small work components. It acts as a base for project costing and
___________________ time scheduling. It also helps in assigning project responsibilities
and identifying resource requirements of the project.
___________________
Time planning involves estimating time for various components of
___________________ the projects. Generally, the time estimates are for three conditions
___________________
– pessimistic, optimistic and most likely. The time estimates for the
project components help in estimating the project completion time
___________________ and the slack of activities, which further help in the allocation of
scarce resources.
___________________
The responsibility planning focusses on assigning project
___________________
responsibilities for its various components. Primary, secondary and
supportive responsibilities are assigned. The outcome of
responsibility planning is a responsibility matrix.
Review Questions
1. What do you mean by project breakdown structure? How is it
important for project planning?
2. Differentiate between different types of project responsibilities
with examples.
3. How are time estimates decided for project activities?
4. What is the significance of time planning? What are its
advantages?
5. “Project plan acts as a tool for project control.” Explain.
51
Unit 8 Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
Work breakdown structure is a technique of exploding the project
into smaller work packages with an objective of creating clarity ___________________
about the work to be done for accomplishing the project.
It creates a hierarchy structure of various tasks and activities
involved in a project. As the tasks move down to the lower level of
WBS, the work specification acquires greater clarity
Consider the project of construction of a building. The project may
be broken into major elements like identifying the builder, designing
of the building, procurement of material and equipment, laying of
the foundation, raising pillars, etc. These are level one tasks as
they have been directly derived from the project.
“Identifying the builder” may further be divided into seeking tenders
from builders, tender evaluation, selection of builder, etc. These are
level two tasks.
“Seeking tenders from builders” may further be broken into
developing building specifications, developing the tender document,
identifying prospective builders, and inviting bids from the builders.
These are all level three tasks.
The level three tasks identified above seem to be quite clear about
the work to be done and as such it is no more necessary to break
them into smaller element further. The last level tasks which will
not be broken further are called the work packages. Each work
package has its own requirement with respect to time, budget,
resources and competence.
When a set of work packages is completed, complete a higher-level
task in the hierarchy. When a set of level 3 tasks is completed,
complete a level 2 task and so on. The project is completed when all
level 1 tasks are completed.
Project Management and Contract Administration
52
The structure of WBS resembles the organization chart. However,
Notes
it is entirely different from the organization chart. The organization
chart depicts the hierarchy of the personnel whereas the WBS is a
___________________
technique of grouping the tasks needed for a project.
___________________
Construction of
___________________ Project building
___________________
Identifying Designing Material
Level 1 the contractor the building procurement
___________________
___________________
Seeking Evaluating Selecting
Level 2
tenders tenders contractor
___________________
Level 1 tasks
1.1 Development of survey questionnaire
1.2 Deciding the sample customer group
1.3 Hiring a consultant for conducting survey
1.4 Conducting survey
1.5 Analysis of survey results and report preparation
Unit 8: Work Breakdown Structure
53
Notes
SURVEY FOR ASSESSING CONSUMER
NEEDS
___________________
___________________
Development of Analysis of
Deciding the Conducting survey results
survey
sample
Hiring a
survey and report ___________________
questionnaire consultant for preparation
customer group
conducting survey
___________________
___________________
Figure 8.2: LEVEL 1 Tasks
The sales manager with the help of his team further breaks the ___________________
Level 2 tasks
1.2 Deciding the sample customer group
1.2.1 Filter consumer data base and select consumers who purchased
company’s TV in last 3 years
1.2.2 Select 200 customers at random and develop details of product
and customers
1.2.3 Collect data of sales in different zones and identify zones with
dropped sales
Level 2 tasks
1.3 Hiring consultant
1.3.1 Identify consultants
1.3.2 Develop requirement document and seek quotations
1.3.3 Personal meeting with consultants
1.3.4 Negotiation and finalization
Level 2 tasks
54
Notes
Level 2 tasks
1.5 Analysis of survey results
___________________
1.5.1 Transfer of survey data on computer
___________________ 1.5.2 Generation of reports
___________________
Development of Survey questionnaire
___________________
___________________
Identifying aspects Preparation of Approval of
for survey questionnaire questionnaire
___________________
___________________
Deciding the sample customer group
___________________
Filter consumer data base Select 200 customers at Collect data of sales in
and select consumers random and develop details different zones and
who purchased of product and customers identify zones with
company’s TV in last 3 dropped sales
Conducting survey
Hiring consultant
Develop requirement
Identify document and see Personal meeting Negotiation and
consultants quotations with consultants finalisation
55
need be, the level 2 tasks can be broken into smaller work elements
Notes
at level 3.
___________________
ACTIVITY
___________________
A company manufacturing machine tools is planning to initiate a project for
procurement and installation of a latest CNC machine to enhance capacity ___________________
and quality of its products. Identify various activities involved, and prepare a
work breakdown structure. ___________________
___________________
The detailed activity chart for the above example of Survey project
is as given below: ___________________
___________________
PROJECT LEVEL 1
___________________
Development 1.1.1 Identifying aspects for survey
1.1 of survey 1.1.2 Preparation of questionnaire ___________________
questionnaire 1.1.3 Approval of questionnaire
___________________
1.2.1 Filter consumer database and select
consumers who purchased company’s TV
Deciding the in last 3 years
sample
1.2 1.2.2 Select 200 customers at random and
Survey for assessing consumer needs
customer
develop details of product and customers
group
1.2.3 Collect data of sales in different zones
and identify zones with dropped sales
Developing PProject
roject Network ___________________
___________________
___________________
The project time plan as referred to in the previous section provides ___________________
the generic time estimates for different work packages or activities
of a project. It is now required to estimate the completion time of
the project in totality. It is important to note here that the project
completion time is not the sum of the time taken by all work
components individually. It is because some of the activities may be
parallel while others might be sequential. So, the total time taken
by the project shall be less than the sum of the time taken by its
individual activities.
In this section, we shall understand the concepts behind the
scheduling of the activities of a project, i.e., establishing start time
and finish time of the various activities of a project. We shall broadly
understand two techniques of project scheduling viz. Network
analysis and Gantt chart.
Network Analysis
Network analysis is the most widely used technique of project
scheduling. The technique involves identifying the precedence
relation between various activities of the project and drawing a
network of the activities in accordance with their precedence
relationship. An activity A is a predecessor to another activity B if
activity B cannot be started unless A is complete.
Two notations are used for the drawing of the network:
58
project network starts with an event denoting that nothing has
Notes
been accomplished so far. The network ends with a single event
denoting that all activities involved in the project have been finished
___________________
and the project is completed.
___________________
Let us understand the use of circle and arrow for drawing the
___________________ project network.
___________________ However, we need to follow some basic rules for developing the
network.
___________________
1. Network typically flows from left to right.
___________________
2. An activity cannot begin unless all immediately preceding
___________________ activities are completed.
___________________ 3. Looping is not allowed.
___________________ 4. Conditional activities are not allowed.
___________________ 5. An activity is represented by a single arrow.
6. More than one activity cannot connect a pair of events.
7. There must be a single start and single end to the project
network.
8. The length of the arrow is NOT proportional to activity time.
59
Activity A and B are predecessor to Activity C and Activity D Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
This is a merge event
___________________
___________________
Let us look at a specific case now.
___________________
Activity Predecessor
___________________
A -
___________________
B A
C A
D B, C
However, activity D can start only after both activities B and C are
complete. It is not possible to draw an arrow from both the activities
B and C, as one activity can be represented by one arrow only. We
make use of a dummy activity in such cases. A dummy activity is
one which is not real, does not consume time, used only for the
continuation of network and generally represented by a dotted arrow.
Project Management and Contract Administration
60
OR
Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Consider the following precedence relationship and draw a network.
___________________ A -
___________________ B A
___________________ C A
___________________ D B
E B, C
F D, E
ACTIVITY
Consider a project for construction of a building. Identify various activities
involved and establish their precedence relationship. Draw a network for the
identified activities. How many burst, merge, hybrid, and simple events are
contained in the network?
Activity Predecessor
A -
B A
C A
D B
E C
F B, C
Unit 9: Developing Project Network
61
Let us try to draw the network for above situation.
Notes
For the first five steps, we can use the situations discussed above.
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Since activity F can start only after both activities B and C are ___________________
complete, we will have to use two dummy activities to depict it.
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Example 9.1
Following is the information related to a software
development project.
1 Specification development A -
2 Process mapping B -
4 Testing of software D C
6 Procurement of hardware F E
9 Pilot test I H
10 Training of users J I
62
Solution
Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Example 9.2
___________________
Following is the information related to a construction
___________________ project.
___________________
S. Task Task Predecessors
___________________ No. code
___________________
1 Design development A -
2 Design approval B A
3 Vendor identification C A
5 Laying foundation E D
6 Raising pillars F E
7 Structure development G F
8 Finishing H G
9 Electrical work I G
10 Inspection J I
CPM ___________________
___________________
___________________
Critical Path Method (CPM)
___________________
After the development of the network, the interrelation of the various
activities involved in the project is established. The next process is ___________________
establishing a time for the activities. The time estimation has already ___________________
been discussed in previous sections. The establishment of time taken
by activities becomes the basis of further analysis which involves ___________________
the determination of project completion time and slack of activities. ___________________
Critical path method (CPM) is the technique of analyzing the project ___________________
network and determining the project completion time.
___________________
CPM involves the following steps:
• Draw the project network
• Identify the paths leading from start to finish
• Calculate the total time along each path
• The path with longest total time is the critical path
• The activities on the critical path are critical activities
Example 10.1
Apply CPM to identify the project completion time for following
data:
Activity Predecessor Activity time
A — 3
B — 5
C — 7
D C 3
E A, B 7
F E, D 3
G D 2
H F, G 2
64
Notes
A3
___________________
B5 E7
F3
___________________ H2
C7
___________________
D3 G2
___________________
___________________ Let us try to identify all paths on the network for reaching the
finish from the start. Remember to take care of the direction of
___________________
arrows.
___________________
We can identify four paths along this network.
___________________
A – E – F – H
___________________
B – E – F – H
C – D – G – H
C – D – F – H
Calculate the time taken by each path by adding the activity time
on the path.
A – E – F – H 15
B – E – F – H 17
C – D – G – H 14
C – D – F – H 15
The longest path on the network is the Critical Path.
BEFH with a time requirement of 17 days is the longest path and
is the critical path.
Project completion time is equal to the time required by critical
path and is equal to 17 days for this project.
However, the method requires physically identifying all paths and
calculating time required by each path. If the number of activities
is more, the network gets complicated, and it becomes almost
impractical to identify each path by observation. So, a more scientific
technique is required to identify the critical path on the network.
The technique involves identifying four values for each activity:
Early start: The earliest start time for the activity. It depends
upon earliest completion time of all predecessor activities.
Unit 10: CPM
65
Early finish: The earliest time for the finish of the activity is
Notes
obtained by adding the activity time to the earliest start. For
example, if the earliest start of the activity is 32, and time required
___________________
by the activity is 4, the early finish will be 32 + 4 = 36.
___________________
Late start: The latest time by which an activity must start if the
project is to be completed in time. It is obtained by subtracting the ___________________
activity time from the late finish time of the activity.
___________________
Late finish: The latest time by which an activity must finish. It
___________________
depends on the late start of all succeeding activities. Each activity
must finish latest by the time of late start of the succeeding activities ___________________
to ensure that project is completed in time.
___________________
Let us try to determine early start (ES), early finish (EF), late start
___________________
(LS), and late finish (LF) for the activities in the above network.
___________________
Activities A, B, and C have no predecessor, so that they can start
at time zero. The activity time is 3, 5, and 7 respectively, so the ___________________
early finish for these activities is 3, 5, and 7.
Activity D can start after activity C is completed, so that activity
D cannot start before 7, i.e., ES of activity D is 7 and its activity
time being 3, its early finish is 7 + 3 = 10.
Activity ES EF LS LF
A 0 3
B 0 5
C 0 7
D 7 10
E 5 12
F 12 15
G 10 12
H 15 17
Activity E can start after both activities A and B are completed. So,
activity E can start earliest at 5 and its activity time being 7, its
EF is 5 + 7 = 12.
Activity F can start after the completion of activities D and E, so
it starts at 12 (ES) and finishes at 12 + 3 = 15.
Activity G can start after the completion of activity D, so its ES is
10 and EF is 12.
Project Management and Contract Administration
66
The last activity H can start after activities F and G, i.e., at 15 (ES)
Notes
and finishes at 17.
___________________ Since early finish of the last activity is 17, the project cannot be
completed in less than 17 time periods, so the project completion
___________________
time is 17.
___________________
Let us now determine the late start and late finish for all activities.
___________________
Since we would like to finish the project at the earliest, the late
___________________ finish of the last activity is equal to its early finish. So LF for
activity H is 17. Since activity H has to finish at 17, it must start
___________________
at 17 − 2 = 15 (LS).
___________________
Activities F and G must be completed before activity H starts, so
___________________ both activities F and G must finish at 15. The late start of succeeding
activity is equal to late finish of all preceding activities. The late
___________________
start of activities F and G is therefore 12 and 13 respectively.
___________________
The late finish of activity E is equal to late start of activity F, i.e.,
12, and therefore its late start is 12 − 7 = 5.
Activity ES EF LS LF
A 0 3 2 5
B 0 5 0 5
C 0 7 2 9
D 7 10 9 12
E 5 12 5 12
F 12 15 12 15
G 10 12 13 15
H 15 17 15 17
67
critical activities. The non-critical activities can be delayed to some
Notes
extent without affecting the completion time of the project but delay
in any critical activities leads to project delay.
___________________
Example 10.2 ___________________
The time required for completion of activities for example 9.1 is as ___________________
follows:
___________________
S. Task Task Predecessors Time
No. Code (in days) ___________________
6 Procurement of hardware F E 25
7 Integration of software G C 30
components
8 Installation of software on H F, G 10
hardware
9 Pilot test I H 10
10 Training of users J I 30
Solution
Let us start with developing the project network.
C 90
D5
A 20
G 30
J 30
B 15 I 10
H 10
E5 F 25
Let us now determine ES, EF, LS, and LF for all the activities.
Project Management and Contract Administration
68
Notes S.No. Task code ES EF LS LF
1 A 0 20 0 20
___________________
___________________
2 B 0 15 5 20
So, the critical path is ACGHIJ and project completion time is 170
days.
69
Unit 11 Notes
___________________
___________________
Alpha solutions private limited – Should we really go
___________________
for this project?
___________________
“Sir, I had been discussing this new building project with Anuj. He
has many valid reasons for continuing at the present premises rather ___________________
than constructing a new building” Anil said looking at Mehra.
___________________
“Is it so? I always thought owning our own office building was a great
___________________
idea. Why don’t you call Anuj and we can discuss this issue?” Mehra
said. ___________________
After half an hour, Anil and Anuj were sitting in chairs in Mehra’s ___________________
cabin.
“Yes Anuj, what you have to say? I understand you have some
disagreement with this project.”
“Sir, with due regards to your decision for shifting to a new building,
I have some reservations on this issue.”
Contd…
Project Management and Contract Administration
70
Notes Mehra looked at the list carefully for some time. “Anil, what you have
to say about it?”
___________________
“I do agree with some issues raised by Anuj. In fact the location will
___________________ be very uncomfortable to the female employees of the company.” Anil
said.
___________________
“Anuj, you give it more thought and list down all the factors that may
___________________ impact our decisions. And Anil I want a complete analysis, so we can
rethink about shifting to a new building” Mehra said looking at both
___________________ of them.
___________________ REVIEW QUESTIONS
___________________ 1. Which tools should Anil use for analysis?
___________________ 2. Identify all factors affecting the decision to relocate.
___________________ 3. Prepare analysis report for presentation at the meeting.
___________________
Block–III
Detailed Contents
UNIT-12: PERT
UNIT-13: SLACK
PERT
PERT ___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
___________________
The estimate of time used in CPM is deterministic. However, in
real time projects, deterministic time for all activities is least ___________________
expected. There are a number of factors which affect the time taken
by each activity. The time of activities is dependent on a number of
uncertainties, which cannot be ascertained precisely. For example,
a construction project may have uncertainties related to weather,
transport time, manpower availability, etc. A software development
project may need redesigning as a result of unacceptable test results,
leading to increase in time. On the other hand, if the conditions
governing the time of activity are highly favorable, the activity may
even take less time than expected.
So, the time estimates of various activities in a project are in general
probabilistic rather than deterministic. The technique used for
network analysis when activity time is probabilistic is called Project
Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). Three different time
estimates are determined for each activity of the project viz.
pessimistic time (PT), optimistic time (OT) and most likely time
(MLT).
• Pessimistic time: The time an activity will take under adverse
conditions.
• Optimistic time: The time an activity will take if conditions
are favorable.
• Most likely time: The time an activity will take with the
highest probability.
The expected time and standard deviation of the activities are
calculated, which are then used to derive the expected completion
time of the project and standard deviation of the project. This
information helps in anticipating probability of the project being
completed in a specific time.
PT + 4MLT + OT
Expected Time =
6
Project Management and Contract Administration
74
PT − OT
Notes Standard Deviation =
6
___________________ FG PT − OT IJ 2
___________________
Variance =
H 6 K
___________________ Example 12.1
Solution:
Time estimate (days) ET Standard Variance
S. Task Deviation
No. Code Opti- Most Pessi-
mistic likely mistic
PT + 4MLT + OT
6
PT − OT
6
FH PT −6OTIK 2
1 A 1 3 5 3 4 = 1 1
6 3 9
10 5 25
2 B 1 3 11 4 =
6 3 9
6
3 C 2 5 8 5 = 1 1
6
8 4 16
4 D 3 4 11 5 =
6 3 9
12
5 E 4 7 16 8 = 2 4
6
6 F 1 2 3 2 2 = 1 1
6 3 9
10 5 25
7 G 4 6 14 7 =
6 3 9
0
8 H 1 1 1 1 = 0 0
6
Unit 12: PERT
75
The expected time estimates can now be used to estimate the
Notes
expected completion time of the project along the same lines as in
case of CPM. The standard deviation of the project completion time
___________________
can also be estimated. The standard deviation of the project
completion will depend upon the standard deviation of critical ___________________
activities.
___________________
To estimate project completion standard deviation:
___________________
• Draw project network.
___________________
• Identify critical activities.
___________________
• Determine variance of all critical activities.
___________________
• Calculate the sum of variances of all critical activities (This is
the variance of project completion time). ___________________
Solution:
S. Task Immediate ET Standard Variance
No. Code Predecessors Deviation
PT + 4MLT + OT
6
PT − OT
6
FH PT −6 OT IK 2
4 1 1
1 A - 3 =
6 3 9
10 5 25
2 B - 4 =
6 3 9
6
3 C A, B 5 = 1 1
6
8 4 16
4 D C 5 =
6 3 9
12
5 E C 8 = 2 4
6
2 1 1
6 F D 2 =
6 3 9
10 5 25
7 G E 7 =
6 3 9
0
8 H F, G 1 = 0 0
6
Let us draw the network for the project. The time indicated against
each activity is the expected time for the activity.
Project Management and Contract Administration
76
Notes
A3
___________________ F2
D5
___________________ B4 H1
C5
___________________
E8 G7
___________________
___________________ The paths from start to finish in the network and the time required
on each path can be identified as:
___________________
• A – C – D – F – H (3 + 5 + 5 + 2 + 1 = 16)
___________________
• A – C – E – G – H (3 + 5 + 8 + 2 + 1 = 19)
___________________
• B – C – D – F – H (4 + 5 + 5 + 2 + 1 = 17)
___________________
• B – C – E – G – H (4 + 5 + 8 + 2 + 1 = 20)
BCEGH being the longest path is the critical path and activities on
this path are critical activities. The expected time of project
completion is equal to the time required by longest path, i.e., 20
days.
Sum of variances of the critical activities:
25 25
= +1 + 4 + +0
9 9
95
= = 10.56
9
Standard deviation of the project completion time is equal to the
square root of the variance of project completion time
= 10.56 = 3.25
The project completion time determined in above example is
Expected Time and actual time taken by the project may vary.
The extent of variation depends upon the standard deviation. The
larger the standard deviation of the project time, larger can be the
variation in the actual project completion time.
We will now understand how the probability of project completion
in a specific time can be determined. The variation in the project
completion time is expected to follow a normal distribution. For
determining probability of project completion in a specific time T,
calculate standard normal variate Z.
T − Te
Z =
σ
Unit 12: PERT
77
Where T is the time period
Notes
Te is the expected time of project completion
___________________
σ is the standard deviation of the project completion time
___________________
Determine the area under the curve for the relevant part as indicated
in the graph below. ___________________
___________________
___________________
Probability of project
___________________
Completion in time T
___________________
___________________
Te T
Figure 12.2
Example 12.3
What is the probability of completing the project in 24 days in the
example 12.5?
Solution:
Te = 20 days
T = 24 days
Standard deviation = 3.25 days
T − Te
Z =
σ
24 − 20
Z = = 1.23
3.25
The value of the area under the curve for Z = 1.23 (From normal
distribution table) is 0.3907. This is the area between Te and T. The
area on the left side of Te is 0.5 (The normal curve being symmetrical
and total area under the curve is 1.0).
So the total shaded area = 0.5 + 0.3907 = 0.8907
The probability of the project being completed in 24 days is thus
0.8907.
Project Management and Contract Administration
78
Example 12.4
Notes
What is the probability of completing the project in 17 days in
___________________ example 5.5?
___________________ Solution:
___________________
___________________
___________________ Te
T
___________________ Te = 20 days
___________________ T = 17 days
Standard deviation = 3.25 days
T − Te
Z =
σ
17 − 20
Z = = 0.92
3.25
The value of the area under the curve for Z = 0.92 (From normal
distribution table) is 0.3212. This is the area between Te and T. The
area on the left side of Te is 0.5 (The normal curve being symmetrical
and total area under the curve is 1.0).
So, the total shaded area = 0.5 − 0.3907 = 0.1093
The probability of the project being completed in 17 days is thus
0.1093.
Example 12.5
What is the probability of completing the project in 19 to 22 days
in example 12.5?
Solution:
Probability of project
Completion between
times
T1 and T2
T1 Te T2
Figure 12.4
Unit 12: PERT
79
Te = 20 days
Notes
T1 = 19 days
___________________
T2 = 22 days
___________________
Standard deviation = 3.25 days
___________________
T − Te
Z =
σ ___________________
22 − 20
Z1 = = 0.62 ___________________
3.25
___________________
19 − 20
Z2 = = 0.31
3.25 ___________________
The value of the area under the curve for Z = 0.62 (From normal ___________________
distribution table) is 0.2324 and for Z = 0.31, the value is 0.1217.
So, the area between 20 and 22 is 0.2324 and area between 19 and ___________________
Slack ___________________
___________________
___________________
Slack ___________________
___________________
We have understood the difference between critical and non-critical
activities. The critical activities are those which if delayed, result ___________________
in the project getting delayed. Non-critical activities can be delayed
to some extent without affecting the project completion time. The
extent by which non-critical activities can be delayed is termed as
“Slack.”
Just consider a project with only two activities A and B, both having
no predecessors. So, both activities A and B can be started at zero
time. If the time required by activity A is 20 days and that by
activity B is 15 days, the project will be completed in 20 days,
because both can start at time zero simultaneously.
0 5 20
Figure 13.1
However, if activity A starts one day late, it would finish on day 21,
leading to one day delay in the project completion. The same is not
applicable to activity B, which can start up to five days late and
still finish on the 20th day. Activity B, in this case, is said to have
slack.
0 15 20
Figure 13.2
Project Management and Contract Administration
82
Each activity of the project has three types of slack as described
Notes
below.
___________________ Total slack: Total slack is the time by which an activity can be
delayed without affecting project completion time, subject to the
___________________
condition that all other activities start and finish as scheduled.
___________________ Total slack is calculated as follows:
___________________ TS = LS − ES
___________________ Activity time
ES ES
ES
___________________
EF EF
EF
___________________ Total slack
LS LS
LS
___________________
LF LF
LF
___________________
A6 B3
Figure 13.4
A - 6 0 6 1 7 1
B - 3 6 9 7 10 1
C B 10 0 10 0 10 0
So, both activities A and B have a slack of one day. However, note
that if slack of one day is consumed by activity A, then activity A
finishes in 7 days. To finish in 10 days, activity B has to start
immediately without an opportunity to utilize its total slack.
However, if slack was not consumed by activity A, it was possible
Unit 13: Slack
83
for activity B to start one day late. So, if total slack is consumed by
Notes
an activity, it impacts the slack available to the subsequent activities.
Calculate total slack for each of the activities for following data of ___________________
a project. ___________________
H F, G 2
Solution:
Let us start with the development of a network for this project and
determine ES, EF, LS, and LF for all activities.
A3
B5 E7
F3
H2
C7
D3 G2
Figure 13.5
84
Note that the total slack for critical activities is zero, indicating
Notes
that critical activities cannot be delayed without delaying the project
completion.
___________________
Free slack: Free slack refers to the time by which an activity can
___________________
be delayed without affecting the early start of its succeeding
___________________ activities.
___________________ Free slack is determined as:
___________________ FS = ESs − EF
___________________ Where FS is free slack, ESs is early start of succeeding activity, and
EF is early finish of activity for which slack is being determined.
___________________
___________________ ES ES
ES
___________________ EF EF
EF
___________________ LS LS
LS
LF LF
LF
Figure 13.6
Example 13.2
Calculate free slack for each of the activities for the data from
example 9.1.
A — 3
B — 5
C — 7
D C 3
E A, B 7
F E, D 3
G D 2
H F, G 2
Solution:
Let us start with the development of a network for this project and
determine ES, EF, LS, and LF for all activities.
Unit 13: Slack
85
Notes
A3
E7
___________________
B5
F3
H2
___________________
C7
___________________
D3 G2
___________________
Figure 13.7 ___________________
D 7 10 9 12 10 – 10 = 0 ___________________
E 5 12 5 12 12 – 12 = 0
F 12 15 12 15 15 – 15 = 0
G 10 12 13 15 15 – 12 = 3
H 15 17 15 17 17 – 17 = 0
86
succeeding activities. The slack if not consumed is lost and is not
Notes
transferred to succeeding activities, in contrast to total slack.
___________________ Independent slack can be calculated as:
___________________ IS = ESs – LFp – t
___________________ Where IS is independent slack, ESs is early start of succeeding
___________________
activity, LFP is late finish of preceding activity, and t is time of
activity for which slack is being determined.
___________________
ES ES
ES
___________________
EF
EF
___________________ EF
LS
LS
LS
___________________
LF Slack LF
___________________ LF
Activity time
___________________ Figure 13.8
Example 13.3
Calculate free slack for each of the activities for the data from
example 13.1.
Solution:
Let us start with the development of a network for this project and
determine ES, EF, LS, and LF for all activities.
A3
B5 E7
F3
H2
C7
D3 G2
Figure 13.9
Unit 13: Slack
87
Activity ES EF LS LF Independent Slack Notes
IS = ESs – LFP – t
A 0 3 2 5 5 – 0 – 3 = 2 ___________________
B 0 5 0 5 5 – 0 – 5 = 0 ___________________
C 0 7 2 9 7 – 0 – 7 = 0 ___________________
D 7 10 9 12 10 – 9 – 3 = –2 ___________________
E 5 12 5 12 12 – 5 – 7 = 0
___________________
F 12 15 12 15 15 – 12 – 3 = 0
___________________
G 10 12 13 15 15 – 12 – 2 = 1
___________________
H 15 17 15 17 17 – 15 – 2 = 0
___________________
Independent slack for A = ESE – LF(preceding hypothetical activity) – tA ___________________
or 5 – 0 – 3 = 2
___________________
Independent slack for B = ESE – LF(preceding hypothetical activity) – tB
or 5 – 0 – 5 = 0
Independent slack for C = ESD – LF(preceding hypothetical activity) – tC
or 7 – 0 – 7 = 0
Independent slack for D = ES(F or G whichever is lower) – LFC – tD
or 10 – 9 – 3 = –2
(Both activities G and F are succeeding activities for activity D
with ES as 10 and 12 respectively. To allow both the activities to
start at their ES, the activity with lower ES is considered as ESs.)
Independent slack for E = ESF – LF(A or B whichever is higher) – tE
or 12 – 5 – 7 = 0
(Both activities A and B are succeeding activities for activity E with
LF as 5 and 5 respectively. To allow both the activities to finish
late, the activity with higher LF is considered as LFP.)
Independent slack for F = ESH – LFE – tF or 15 – 12 – 3 = 0
Independent slack for G = ESH – LFD – tG or 15 – 12 – 2 = 1
Independent slack for H = ES(next hypothetical activity) – LF(F & G) – tH
or 17 – 15– 2 = 0
(Since there is no succeeding activity to activity H, the early finish
of activity H is considered as early start of next hypothetical activity)
Note that the independent slack of D is –2, which indicates
that if preceding activities of activity D finish late, the
succeeding activities cannot start early.
Project Management and Contract Administration
88
Example 13.4
Notes
The time required for completion of activities in example 5.1 is as
___________________ follows:
___________________
S. Task Task Predecessors Time
___________________ No. Code (in days)
___________________
1 Specification development A - 20
2 Process mapping B - 15
___________________
3 Developing software for C A, B 90
___________________
process components
___________________
4 Testing of software D C 5
___________________
5 Developing hardware E B 5
___________________ specifications
7 Integration of software G C 30
components
8 Installation of software on H F, G 10
hardware
9 Pilot test I H 10
10 Training of users J I 30
Determine total slack, free slack, and independent slack for all
activities.
Solution:
Let us start with developing the project network.
C 90
D5
A 20
G 30
J 30
B 15 I 10
H 10
E5 F 25
Figure 13.10
Unit 13: Slack
89
S. Task ES EF LS LF Total Slack Free Slack Independent Notes
No. Code TS = LS – ES FS = Slack
ESS – EF IS =
ESS – LFp – t ___________________
1 A 0 20 0 20 0–0=0 20 – 20 = 0 20 – 0 – 20 = 0 ___________________
___________________
2 B 0 15 5 20 5–0=5 15 – 15 = 0 15 – 0 – 15 = 0
___________________
3 C 20 110 20 110 20 – 20 110 – 110 110 – 20 – 90
=0 =0 =0
___________________
4 D 110 115 165 170 165 – 110 170 – 115 170 – 110 – 5
___________________
= 55 = 55 = 55
___________________
5 E 15 20 110 115 110 – 15 = 95 20 – 20 = 0 20 – 20 – 5 = –5
___________________
6 F 20 45 115 140 115 – 20 = 95 140 – 45 = 95 140 – 115 – 25
=0 ___________________
7 G 110 140 110 140 110 – 110 140 – 140 140 – 110 – 30 ___________________
= 0 = 0 = 0
8 H 140 150 140 150 140 – 140 150 – 150 150 – 140 – 10
= 0 = 0 = 0
9 I 150 160 150 160 150 – 150 160 – 160 160 – 150 – 10
= 0 = 0 = 0
10 J 160 170 160 170 160 – 160 170 – 170 170 – 160 – 30
= 0 = 0 = –20
___________________
___________________
___________________
92
• Deciding the time by which project will be crashed considering
Notes
time cost relationship.
___________________ Let us try to understand the relation between time and cost of
activities with the help of a graph.
___________________
TIME COST RELATIONSHIP
___________________
Crash cost
___________________
___________________
cost
___________________
Normal cost
___________________
Figure 14.1
___________________
• Normal time: The time required to complete an activity under
normal circumstances with planned resources.
• Crash time: The minimum time required for completion of an
activity.
• Normal cost: The cost of completing an activity under normal
circumstances with planned resources.
• Crash cost: The cost required to complete an activity in
minimum possible time.
As can be observed from the graph, as we move from normal time
toward crash time, the cost increases, i.e., the crash cost is higher
than the normal cost of the activity. This additional cost is due to
additional resources employed for completing the activity in shorter
period.
Let us understand the project crashing further with the help of an
example.
Example 14.1
Consider the following project.
93
Determine the project completion time, period by which project can
Notes
be crashed and cost of crashing the project.
Solution: ___________________
Let us first draw the network of the project and identify the project ___________________
___________________
D6
A8 ___________________
C 12 ___________________
___________________
B4 ___________________
E7
___________________
Figure 14.2
___________________
Find the paths leading to finish from the start of the network and
their time requirement.
• C 12
• A – D 14
• B – E 11
A – D is the critical path, being the longest route, and A and D are
critical activities.
Note that if we want to reduce project completion time, activity on
the critical path has to be slashed. Reduction in time of a non-
critical activity will not result in project time reduction. Let us now
find out the crash cost per day for each activity.
Crash cost − Normal cost
Creash cost per day =
Normal time − Crash time
94
Let us now try to crash the project and determine the cost of
Notes
crashing.
___________________ Project Paths Critical Activities Activity Cost of Crashed
completion Path that can crashed crashing project
___________________ time be completion
crashed time
___________________
C 12
___________________ 14 AD 14 A – D A, D A 500 13
BE 11
___________________
C 12
___________________
13 AD 13 A – D A, D A 500 12
___________________ BE 11
___________________ 12 C 12 A – D D D 750 11
AD 12 C C C 500
___________________ BE 11
Example 14.2
Consider the following project.
A - 12 8 4000 5600
B A 6 4 2500 3500
C A 3 2 600 900
D A 5 4 1600 1950
E C, D 4 2 3400 3800
F B, E 8 5 1000 2800
G D 4 2 1200 2800
H F, G 7 5 1800 4000
95
Solution:
Notes
___________________
F8
B6
E4 ___________________
A 12 C3 H7
___________________
D5
G4 ___________________
___________________
The paths from start to finish and their time requirement are as ___________________
follows:
___________________
A – B – F – H 33 Days
___________________
A – C – E – F – H 34 Days
___________________
A – D – E – F – H 36 Days
A – D – G – H 28 Days
The project completion time is 36 days.
Critical path is A – D – E – F – H.
96
Project Paths Critical Activities Activity Cost of Crashed
Notes completion Path that can crashed crashing project
time be completion
___________________ crashed time
___________________ ABFH 33
ACEFH 34
36 ADEFH A, D, E, F, H E 200 35
___________________ ADEFH 36
ADGH 28
___________________
ABFH 33
___________________ ACEFH 33
35 ADEFH A, D, E, F, H E 200 34
ADEFH 35
___________________ ADGH 28
___________________ ABFH 33
ACEFH 32
34 ADEFH A, D,F, H D 350 33
___________________ ADEFH 34
ADGH 28
___________________
ABFH 33
___________________ ACEFH 32 ADEFH A, F, H
33 A 400 32
ADEFH 33 ABFH A, B, F, H
ADGH 27
ABFH 32
ACEFH 31 ADEFH F, H
32 F 600 31
ADEFH 32 ABFH B, F, H
ADGH 26
ABFH 31
ACEFH 30 ADEFH H
31 H 1100 30
ADEFH 31 ABFH B, H
ADGH 26
ABFH 30
ACEFH 29 ADEFH H
30 H 1100 29
ADEFH 30 ABFH B, H
ADGH 25
ABFH 29
ACEFH 28 ADEFH None Further crashing is not possible
29
ADEFH 29 ABFH B because on one of the critical path,
ADGH 24 no activity can be further crashed.
97
Unit 15 Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
Gantt Chart
___________________
One of the basic limitations of network analysis is that it does not
___________________
have provision to indicate the start of an activity after partial
completion of preceding activity. However, in practice, often an ___________________
activity can start after a preceding activity has been completed
partially.
Gantt chart is a graphical technique which can be used for simply
depicting the sequence of activities. It was developed by H L Gantt
in 1917. The x-axis of the graph is the time scale and the y-axis
indicates various activities involved in the project. Horizontal bars
are drawn along the x-axis for individual activities. The length of
the bars is proportional to the time required by activities. However,
Gantt chart fails to establish the interdependence of activities clearly.
Still, it is one of the most commonly used techniques because of its
simple approach.
The Gantt chart can be used during various phases of the project.
Scheduling: Gantt chart is a simple tool to depict the sequence of
activities in a project and can be used to estimate the scheduled
finish of the project. The Gantt chart created to show the planned
start and finish of activities is called the Baseline Gantt chart.
Resource allocation: Often the projects deal with limited resources,
and it becomes important to allocate resources to the activities in
a manner that has least impact on project completion schedule.
Also, a project manager is always interested in the allocation of
resources in such a manner that the demand for resources is uniform
to the extent possible during the project life. Gantt chart forms the
basis for identifying resource requirements at different periods
during the project and helps the manager to allocate resources in
most efficient manner.
Controlling: The baseline Gantt chart becomes the basis of control.
Apart from the scheduled activities, the current state of the project
Project Management and Contract Administration
98
can also be depicted on the Gantt chart which provides basis for
Notes
comparing planned versus actual progress and taking actions as
necessary.
___________________
___________________
A
___________________
B
Time scale
Time scale
Figure 15.1
Example 15.1
Develop a Gantt chart for a project with following data
A — 3
B — 5
C — 7
D C 3
E A, B 7
F E, D 3
G D 2
H F, G 2
Unit 15: Developing Gantt Chart
99
Solution:
Notes
A
___________________
B
___________________
C
___________________
D
___________________
E
___________________
F
___________________
G
___________________
H
___________________
12
34
36
78
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
___________________
Figure 15.2
___________________
Example 15.2
Create a baseline Gantt chart for the following project.
Activity A B C D E F G H
Time 12 6 3 5 4 8 4 3
Solution:
B
C
D
G
H
12
34
56
78
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
9
Figure 15.3
Example 15.3
Following is the data pertaining to plan and actual progress on day
17 for the project in example 15.2. Show the plan and progress on
a Gantt chart.
Project Management and Contract Administration
100
Activity A B C D E F G H
Notes
Predecessor – A A A C,D B,E D F,G
___________________ Time 12 6 3 5 4 8 4 3
___________________ Progress on 100% 75% 100% 60% - - - -
day 17
___________________
___________________ Solution:
A
___________________
B
___________________ C
___________________ D
E
___________________
F
___________________
G
H
___________________
12
34
56
78
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
9
Figure 15.4
Example 15.4
Develop the Gantt chart for the following network.
A3
F2
D5
B4 H1
C5
E8 G7
Figure 15.5
Solution:
B
C
D
F
G
H
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
Figure 15.6
101
Unit 16 Notes
___________________
___________________
Alpha solutions private limited was established in 2012. The company
___________________
started undertaking projects for developing internet security software
from corporates. By the year 2016, the company was already doing ___________________
business with more than 30 corporates and had developed the
reputation of its expertise in the field. The company was headed by ___________________
Mr. Mehra as the Managing Director, and Anil assisted him as chief
___________________
project manager. Anil was responsible for allotting the new projects
to one of eight project managers working for the company. ___________________
Anuj was the project manager for a project with Mohit Industries, ___________________
one of the most important clients of Alpha Solutions. The project
started on January 1, 2016 and was scheduled to be handed over to ___________________
the client in 60 days.
A 10 B 12 D 30 F5
C 15
E 10
Figure 16.1
Anil received a call from CEO of Mohit industries before the start of
the project, requesting him to see if the project instead could be
delivered five days earlier. Anil promised to reply by the end of the
day. Anil had a discussion with Anuj and Mr. Mehra. While Anuj was
reluctant to accept the change, Mr. Mehra did not want to antagonize
an important client. He asked Anil to handle the situation. While Anil
talked to the client again, telling him that completing the project
earlier would involve additional resources and will not remain viable
for the organization, the client offered to cover additional expenses up
to Rs. one lakh. Anil again had a meeting with Mr. Mehra and
appraised him of the discussion with client. Mr. Mehra asked Anil to
analyze the cost involved and also whether the project can be shortened
by five days at all.
Contd…
Project Management and Contract Administration
102
Notes The summarized data is as below.
___________________ Activity Normal time Crash time Crash Cost per day
(Days) (Days) (`
`)
___________________
A 10 8 12000
___________________
B 12 12 –
___________________
C 15 12 20000
___________________
D 30 25 18000
___________________
___________________ E 10 10 –
___________________ F 5 5 –
___________________ Mr. Mehra was presented with the data, and he asked Anil “Should
we accept the change?”
___________________
Questions
1. Should the change be accepted? Justify your answer.
___________________
___________________
___________________
Creating Baseline Cost Curve
___________________
Project X ___________________
A B C D
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cost
A 100
B 70
C 200
D 150
106
Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
___________________
Figure 17.1
___________________
Mr. and Mrs. Tolstoy are building a house on a hill. It is a wooden
house with a slanted tiled roof. The size of the house is 3000 sq. feet
and will cost ` 1000 per sq. foot (including the plot and the
construction).
The activities in building the house, the precedence, the duration
and the percentage of total cost are given below.
G Furnace B 1 9
H Plumbing fixtures installed D 2 4
J Exterior paint, light F,G,H 6 10
fixtures, hardware
installed
107
Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Project Management and Contract Administration
108
Notes 35
___________________ 30
25
___________________
20
___________________
15
___________________ 10
___________________ 5
___________________ 0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25
___________________
___________________
___________________
109
Unit 18 Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
110
Notes Reserve Analysis Reserve analysis is used to determine how
much contingency reserve, if any, should be
___________________ allocated to the project. This funding is used
to account for cost uncertainty.
___________________
Cost of Quality Cost of Quality (COQ) includes money spent
___________________ during the project to avoid failures and money
spent during and after the project due to
___________________ failures. During cost estimation, assumptions
about the COQ can be included in the project
___________________
cost estimate.
___________________ Vendor Bid Analysis Vendor analysis can be used to estimate what
___________________
the project should cost by comparing the bids
submitted by multiple vendors.
___________________
___________________
• Collecting the judgment and experience of top managers.
• Collecting available past data in similar activities.
• Estimation of overall project cost and cost of major components
by senior managers.
• Cost estimates given to lower level managers.
• Budget is broken into estimates for specific tasks and work
activities.
Bottom Up Budgeting
• Elemental tasks, their schedules, and budgets are constructed.
• People doing the work are consulted.
• Difference of opinion resolved by discussion between junior
and senior managers.
• Advocate participative management.
Considers
• Overheads
• Allowances
• General and administrative costs
111
Unit 19 Notes
___________________
___________________
___________________
While it is important to plan a project adequately, it is equally
important to ensure that the plans are implemented in a manner ___________________
that project objectives are achieved. It involves two aspects:
• Continual and periodic verification of the project progress.
• Identifying deviation from plans and taking actions if required.
112
Notes Define project
objectives
___________________
Collect data as per Compare performance
monitoring plan with plan
___________________
113
Identify deviation: The difference between the actual progress
Notes
and desired progress indicates a deviation.
Various tools used for the monitoring and control of the projects are ___________________
Gantt chart and its use we have discussed in the previous sections. ___________________
It is one of the most commonly used techniques for project monitoring ___________________
due to several advantages offered by it.
___________________
• Easy to understand, being a pictorial representation.
___________________
• Easy to construct and maintain.
• Shows progress against the plan on the same graph.
• Can be used for resource planning also.
A baseline Gantt chart indicates the start and finish of various
activities of the project and their interrelationship. As the project
progresses, the progress of various activities can also be plotted on
the same chart enabling the project manager to compare the plan
with performance and take corrective measures if required.
Example 19.1
Develop the Gantt chart for the following network.
A3
F2
D5
B4 H1
C5
E8 G7
Figure 19.2
Activity A B C D E F G H
% complete 100% 100% 100% 80% 60% 0
on day 14
Project Management and Contract Administration
114
Solution:
Notes
A
___________________
B
___________________
C
___________________ D
E
___________________
F
___________________
G
___________________
H
___________________
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
___________________ Figure 19.3
B
C
D
F
G
H
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
Figure 19.4
___________________
(Earned Value Analysis)
Value ___________________
___________________
After studying this unit, the student will be able to: ___________________
\ Understand the process of project control
___________________
\ Use earned value analysis to track the progress of projects
___________________
___________________
Earned Value Analysis
___________________
Earned value analysis is a technique for monitoring of both cost
and schedule. The monitoring for both cost and schedule is in
financial terms. It compares the budgeted cost of work performed
with the actual cost of work performed and budgeted cost of work
scheduled. The comparisons provide a measure to assess the project
performance in terms of cost and schedule.
The terms and notations used are as follows:
Example
If the budgeted cost of an activity is ` 2000, and on a specific day,
70% of activity has been completed, determine the BCWP.
Work completed = 70%
Total activity cost = ` 2000
Value of work completed = 70% of 2000 = 1400
So, BCWP = 1400
Example
Consider the following information about a project during its
implementation.
Project Management and Contract Administration
116
Notes Activity % Completion Budgeted cost
A 100 2000
___________________
___________________ B 90 3500
___________________ C 90 1500
___________________ D 35 3000
___________________ E 0 1000
___________________
Determine BCWP for each activity and the project in totality.
___________________
Activity % Completion Budgeted cost BCWP
___________________
A 100 2000 100% of 2000 = 2000
___________________
B 90 3500 90% of 3500 = 3150
___________________
C 90 1500 90% of 1500 = 1350
E 0 1000 0% of 1000 = 0
Example:
Consider the following information about a project during its
implementation.
Unit 20: Project Monitoring (Earned Value Analysis)
117
Activity Scheduled Budgeted cost Notes
Completion (%)
___________________
A 100 2000
___________________
B 100 3500
___________________
C 100 1500
___________________
D 60 3000
___________________
E 40 1000
___________________
Determine BCWS for each activity and the project in totality. ___________________
BCWP
CPI =
ACWP
Project Management and Contract Administration
118
CPI value of greater than 1 indicates that the actual cost spent was
Notes
less than the budgeted cost, and hence the project is over performing
on this front. However, a very high value indicates a need for review.
___________________
A very high value of CPI may indicate
___________________
• Over budgeting in planning
___________________ • Quality compromise in project
___________________
In fact, if the reason was over budgeting, an underperformance is
___________________ also disguised as over performance.
Example:
Determine CPI and CV for all activities and the project in totality.
Activity % Completion Budgeted cost ACWP
A 100 2000 2200
B 100 3500 4000
C 100 1500 1500
D 60 3000 1500
E 40 1000 500
119
Total BCWP = 7550 Notes
BCWP ___________________
SPI =
BCWS
___________________
If the value of planned work (BCWS) is more than the value of
completed work, it indicates a delay in schedule while the vice ___________________
B 100 3500 90
C 100 1500 90
D 60 3000 35
E 40 1000 0
Project Management and Contract Administration
120
For the above data, calculate SPI and cost variance of all activities
Notes
and for the project in totality.
___________________ Activity % Budgeted % BCWP BCWS SPI = SV =
Scheduled Cost Actual BCWP BCWP –
___________________ Completion Comple- BCWS ACWP
tion
___________________
A 100 2000 100 100% 100% 2000/2000 2000 – 2000
___________________ of 2000 of 2000 = 1.0 = 0
= 2000 = 2000
___________________ B 100 3500 90 90% 100% 3150/3500 3150 – 3500
of 3500 of 3500 = 0.9 = –350
___________________ = 3150 = 3500
121
The ideal value of CR is 1 (If both SPI and CPI are equal to one).
Notes
However, the value of CPI does not indicate CPI or SPI with certainty
because a high value of one parameter influences the value of CR.
___________________
The value of CR is considered acceptable in the range of 1.05 to 0.9.
___________________
It is a general practice by project managers to plot the value of CR
on a control chart and take action when it crosses the acceptable ___________________
limits.
___________________
___________________
1.05
Critical ratio
1.0 ___________________
___________________
0.9
___________________
___________________
Activity % Budgeted % Actual
Scheduled Cost Actual Cost
Completion Completion Incurred
A 100 2000 100 2200
B 100 3500 90 4000
C 100 1500 90 1500
D 60 3000 35 1500
E 40 1000 0 500
Example:
For the above data collected during a milestone of the project,
calculate the critical ratio.
Solution:
Activity % Budgeted % Actual BCWP BCWS
Scheduled Cost Actual Cost
Completion Completion Incurred
122
Total ACWP = 9700
Notes
BCWP = 7550
___________________
BCWS = 9200
___________________
7550
CPI = = 0.78
___________________ 9700
___________________ 7550
SPI = = 0.82
9200
___________________
CR = CPI × SPI
___________________
0.78 × 0.82 = 0.64
___________________
Example:
___________________
A project was evaluated at different milestones for performance.
___________________
The data collected at different milestones is as under.
___________________
Milestone 1 2 3 4 5
If the total budgeted cost for the project was Rs.5,00,000, comment
on the performance of the project.
Solution:
Milestone 1 2 3 4 5
123
Notes
1.05
Critical ratio ___________________
1.0
___________________
0.9
___________________
___________________
1 2 3 4 5
The graph indicates that at milestone one, the critical ratio was ___________________
below 0.9, that was due to low value of SPI indicating schedule ___________________
delay also resulting in higher cost and as a result, CR is low.
However, during milestone 2, SPI is greater than 1 and CPI is less ___________________
than 1, which could be a result of crashing to compensate for previous
___________________
period schedule delay. The CR since second milestone has been
maintained in the control limits indicating a satisfactory project ___________________
performance.
125
Unit 21 Notes
___________________
___________________
Alpha Solutions Private Limited – Planning for a
___________________
New Office Building
___________________
“Anil, you can consider the budget as approved. Schedule a meeting
with Mr. Arya and prepare the complete plan for construction” Mehra ___________________
told Anil while crossing his cabin. “You can involve Anuj with you if
___________________
you want.”
___________________
“Yes sir, I would like Anuj with me. Recently he has been showing his
analytical capabilities. I plan to raise him to senior project assistant ___________________
shortly.” Anil said.
___________________
“Please plan for the requirement of cash also with the timeline so we
can arrange it when required.”
In a detailed meeting with Mr. Arya, three days later, Anil and Anuj
arrived at the time estimates of the project activities. They also
established the interrelationship of the activities.
126
Notes H Order placement P23B 0.55 2 3 6
___________________
Activity Activity Code Predecessor
___________________ number activities
K Furnishing P23C2-2 I
L Upholstery P23C2-2 J, K
“We are developing resource plan and responsibility plan sir, it will
be ready by day after tomorrow” Anil said.
QUESTIONS
1. Prepare a weekly cash requirement for the project. (Consider that
the cost of activities is uniformly spread over its duration)
___________________
___________________
___________________
We have just understood the concept of earned value analysis. The
three parameters that we came across are BCWP, ACWP, and ___________________
BCWS.
The relation between these three parameters can be understood
graphically if all three are plotted on the same graph. Just like the
project life cycle, these curves also assume a shape similar to
alphabet S and are known by the name S curve. S curve provides
vital information about the project performance at a glance. The x-
axis of the curve indicates time scale and the y-axis is for the total
cost. The three cost parameters ACWP, BCWP, and BCWS result in
three different cost curves.
Following is the shape of a typical S curve. The curve represents
the baseline plan of the project. The blocks in the curve represent
the activities of the project, undertaken at a different time during
the life of the project. These activities are the cost elements of the
project and the cumulative cost of various activities at different
points of time define the shape of S Curve.
Cost
Time
Figure 22.1
Project Management and Contract Administration
130
However, the cost curves for ACWP and BCWP may not follow the
Notes
same pattern. The variation in patterns of ACWP and BCWP as
compared with the BCWS curve provides vital information about
___________________
project performance.
___________________
Let us understand the construction of curves.
___________________
S. Task Task Prede- Time Budgeted
___________________ No. Code cessors (in days) Cost
6 Procurement of hardware F E 25
7 Integration of software G C 30
components
8 Installation of software H F, G 10
on hardware
9 Pilot test I H 10
10 Training of users J I 30
C
D
A
G
J
B I
H
E F
Figure 22.2
Unit 22: Project Monitoring with S Curve
131
Mile Days Activities Percent Cost Total Cumulative
Notes
stone elapsed complete mile- cost
stone
cost ___________________
Figure 22.3
Cost
Variance
BCWP
Schedule
slipage
Figure 22.4
Project Management and Contract Administration
132
The above graph shows three curves namely ACWP, BCWP, and
Notes
BCWS. You can observe that the ACWP curve finishes after the
BCWS curve on x-axis and higher on y-axis. The difference between
___________________
planned finish time and actual finish time is termed as schedule
___________________ slip. Observe that BCWP curve finishes after BCWS on time scale
but finishes at the same point as BCWS on cost scale. It is due to
___________________
the fact that at completion, 100% of work has been completed and
___________________ so BCWP is 100%, same as BCWS. The SPI, therefore, will be 1. So,
at project finish, SPI will be equal to 1. Note that SPI and schedule
___________________
slip are not same. Schedule slip refers to the period by which project
___________________ has been delayed whereas SPI is the ratio of BCWP to BCWS.
___________________ Schedule slip: Difference between the actual finish and planned
finish
___________________
Schedule variance: Difference along cost curve between BCWP
___________________ and BCWS
Cost variance: Difference along cost curve between BCWP and
ACWP
SPI: Ratio of the value of BCWP to BCWS along cost axis
CPI: Ratio of the value of BCWP to ACWP along cost axis
Cost overrun: Difference between BCWP and ACWP along cost
axis at project finish
Example:
Interpret the following graph.
52000
50000
ACWP BCWS
BCWP
200 210
Figure 22.5
133
ACWP at project finish = 52000
Notes
Scheduled finish = 200 days
___________________
Actual finish = 210 days
___________________
Example:
___________________
Consider the following curves developed during the project. Prepare
___________________
a project performance report based on weeks 20, 35, 60, and 75.
___________________
90
___________________
80
___________________
60 ___________________
70 ___________________
___________________
50
BCWS
ACWP
40
BCWP
30
20
10
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Figure 22.6
Week 20 35 60 75
BCWP 11 28 65 71
BCWS 16 40 68 71
ACWP 30 56 72 77
CV –19 –28 –7 –6
SV –5 –12 –3 0
___________________
___________________
___________________
Cost and schedule are two major objectives of projects. However, ___________________
both these objectives are influenced by the availability of resources
at the right time and right place. One of the concerns of the project
manager is to ensure effective utilization of the resources in order
to achieve the project objectives.
The project manager is faced with questions like
• What resources are required?
• When are the resources required?
• Do we have enough resources?
• Is the load on resources uniform?
• Whether the project can be completed in scheduled time with
these resources?
In this unit, we will try to answer the above questions faced by
project managers.
The resources can be
• Human resource
• Machinery
• Equipment
• Materials
• Skills
Resources maybe available in-house or maybe outsourced. The
uncertainty about resource availability is higher if it is outsourced.
Project Management and Contract Administration
136
Notes
What resources would be required?
Availability of right resources at the right time is crucial to the
___________________
success of the projects. Planning for resources starts with the
___________________ development of work breakdown structure. Resources are identified
for each work package separately. In fact, it becomes the basis of
___________________
development of budget also by identifying the cost implications of
___________________ resources required for various work packages.
Specification Prototype
development development
(A) (B)
Inspection
(B5)
Prototype testing
(A)
Figure 23.1
137
Code Work package Resource Requirement for work packages
Notes
Manpower Machinery Equipment Material
___________________
A1 Development of Draughtsman CAD-1
engineering -2 Digitizer-1 ___________________
drawing
___________________
A2 Designing Design Hydraulic CAD-1
assembly engineer-1 crane Digitizer-1 ___________________
Civil
engineer-1 ___________________
Draughts-
man-1 ___________________
138
Code Activity Resource Requirement for Level 1 Activities
Notes
Manpower Machinery Equipment Material
___________________
A Specification Draughts- Hydraulic CAD-1
___________________ development man-2 crane Digitizer-1
Design Simulation
___________________ engineer-1 software
Civil
___________________ engineer-1
Systems
___________________ engineer-1
139
assess it, information needs to be compiled for the time taken by
Notes
activities and the start and finish of the activities.
A1 Development of 15 - ___________________
engineering
drawing ___________________
___________________
B1 Casting 2 A2
___________________
B2 Moulding 4 B1
___________________
B3 Heat treatment 2 B2
___________________
141
Unit 24 Notes
Resource LLoading
oading and LLeveling
eveling ___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
• People ___________________
• Materials
• Equipment
• Working Capital
Projects may be
• Time-constrained project must be finished by a certain time.
• Resource-constrained project must be finished without
exceeding some specific level of resource usage.
Time-constrained projects
• Focusses on resource utilization.
• Demand for resources may be erratic.
• Demand for resources is balanced by resource loading and
resource leveling techniques.
Resource Loading
• The amount of individual resources an existing schedule
requires during specific time periods.
• Gives general understanding of demands a project makes.
A 2 - 2
B 3 - 2
C 5 - 4
Project Management and Contract Administration
142
Notes
A (2)
___________________ C (5)
___________________
___________________
___________________ A
___________________ B
Gantt Chart
C
___________________
___________________
Day 1 2 3 4
A 2 2 - -
B 2 2 2 -
C 4 4 4 4
Resource requirement 8 8 6 4
5 C
4 B
A
3
Figure 24.2
Resource Leveling
Resource leveling aims to minimize the period by period variations
in resource loading by shifting tasks within their slack allowances.
Unit 24: Resource Loading and Leveling
143
Day 1 2 3 4 Notes
A 2 2 - - -
___________________
B 2 2 2 - -
___________________
C 4 4 4 4 4
___________________
Resource requirement 8 8 6 4 4
___________________
10
___________________
___________________
8
___________________
___________________
6
C ___________________
4 B ___________________
A
A (2)
C (5)
Project network
B (3)
C Gantt Chart
Figure 24.3
Project Management and Contract Administration
144
Notes Day 1 2 3 4 5
A 2 2 - - -
___________________
B 2 2 2 2 2
___________________
C 4 4 4 4 4
___________________
Resource requirement 8 8 6 6 6
___________________
___________________
7
___________________ 6
C
___________________ 5
B
___________________ 4
A
3
___________________
2
___________________
1
Figure 24.4
145
Unit 25 Notes
Project TTermination
ermination ___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
146
• For some time lives in protected status.
Notes
• Project assets are transferred from project to the newly created
___________________ division.
Delphi
database Scoring
model
Termination
rule set
Yes
Terminate
project
Figure 25.2
Unit 25: Project Termination
147
The Termination Process Notes
Step 2: Implementation
___________________
• Ensure completion of work including tasks performed by sub-
contractors. ___________________
___________________
149
Unit 26 Notes
___________________
___________________
Alpha Solutions Private Limited – Planning Under
___________________
Time and Resource Constraint
___________________
The managing director of Alpha solutions, Mr. Mehra, was pacing in
___________________
his cabin with a grim face and Anil was sitting uncomfortably in a
chair. Anuj was standing near the door in deep thoughts. ___________________
“Why didn’t you anticipate it before accepting the contract?” Mehra
___________________
blurted out.
___________________
It was only a month back when an order was received from a reputed
new client for software development. It was an opportunity for long- ___________________
term association. Anil had prepared the list of activities and the Gantt
chart for the project. The Gantt chart indicated that the project would
take 15 weeks, as specifically desired by the customer.
A 2 -
B 4 A
C 3 A
D 3 -
E 6 B
F 8 C
G 2 D, E, F
D G
E
A
B
F
C
Figure 26.1
“The only resource we require is only one specialist for this type of
software, and that should pose no problem.” Anil had said.
Contd…
Project Management and Contract Administration
150
Notes When the project was being planned, Anil came through the problem.
All the activities required the same specialist, and he could work on
___________________ only two activities at a time. There are periods when three activities
are working together, and that means some activities will have to
___________________ wait. The project will take 17 weeks in place of 15, and the customer
will be lost forever.
___________________
Anil had gone to Mehra with this new discovery to find the possibility
___________________
of requesting customer for extending the time limit.
___________________ “Can we hire an additional specialist?” Mehra asked. In a dim voice,
Anil said, “I am afraid, we cannot find one at this moment.”
___________________
“I really don’t know how to face the customer,” Mehra said with a
___________________
tense face.
___________________
At this point, Anuj said “Sir, I think we can deliver the project within
___________________ schedule even with one specialist.”
___________________
“HOW,” Mehra and Anil both said simultaneously turning their faces
toward the door where Anuj was standing.
Anuj took a piece of paper from the table and explained his plan. Anil
looked unbelievingly at the plan, and Mehra suddenly relaxed. “Anuj
you really deserve a pat on the shoulder, “Mehra said smilingly patting
his shoulder.
QUESTIONS
1. Prepare a resource load table of the project on the basis of given
information.
2. Can the project really be done in 15 days with one specialist?
3. Prepare a plan for allocation of specialist to different activities to
complete the project in 15 days and plot your plan on a Gantt
chart. (Assume that activities can be split).
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