Final Kofale-Kore-Bekoji Feasibility Report

Consultancy Services for Package 6: Concept Design, Risk Assessment, Feasibility Ethiopian Roads Administration
and Environmental Impact Assessment Studies, Resettlement Action Plan, and Final Feasibility Report,
Tender Document Preparation & Engineering Cost Estimation of Kofele – Kore –
April 2022
Bekoji and Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction
Table of contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................. xiii
1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background..................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Contract Data and Management ..................................................................................... 2
1.3 Scope of Services and Objectives................................................................................... 3
1.4 Project Description .......................................................................................................... 6
1.5 Accessibility of the project site ........................................................................................ 8
1.6 Project Location map ...................................................................................................... 9
2 CONSULTATIONS ..................................................................................... 11
2.1 General ......................................................................................................................... 11
2.2 Stakeholder Consultation process ................................................................................. 11
3 TRAFFIC DATA AND ANALYSIS .............................................................. 15
3.1 Traffic Data ................................................................................................................... 15
3.1.1 General .................................................................................................................. 15
3.1.2 Traffic Count (TC) .................................................................................................. 15
3.1.3 Vehicle Classification ............................................................................................. 16
3.1.4 Estimation of Motorized Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) ............................... 17
3.1.5 Total Number of Motorized Traffic Counted ........................................................... 18
3.1.6 Night Time Motorized Traffic Count........................................................................ 19
3.1.7 Night Factor ........................................................................................................... 19
3.1.8 Motorized Average Daily Traffic ............................................................................. 21
3.1.9 Estimation of Non-Motorized Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) ....................... 22
3.1.10 Night Time Non-Motorized Traffic Count ................................................................ 23
3.1.11 Night Factor (NF) ................................................................................................... 24
3.1.12 Non-Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) ........................................................... 26
3.1.13 Modal Shift (from Non-Motorized to Motorized Traffic) ........................................... 27
3.1.14 Summary of Normal Traffic .................................................................................... 29
3.1.15 Seasonal Conversion Factor .................................................................................. 29
3.1.16 Generated Traffic ................................................................................................... 31
3.2 Traffic Growth and Forecast .......................................................................................... 33
3.2.1 General .................................................................................................................. 33
4 ROUTE SELECTION .................................................................................. 44
4.1 Identification of Alternatives Route ................................................................................ 44
4.2 Characteristics Of The Identified Routes ....................................................................... 45
4.3 Multi Criteria Analysis Of The Alternative Routes .......................................................... 47
4.3.1 Engineering Assessment ....................................................................................... 47
4.3.2 Environmental Assessment.................................................................................... 49
4.3.3 Social Assessment................................................................................................. 52
4.3.4 Economic Analysis of the Alternative Routes ......................................................... 58
4.3.5 Administrative Considerations ................................................................................ 59
4.3.6 Evaluation And Recommendation .............................................................................. 59
5 PRELIMINARY ENGINEERING DESIGN ................................................... 64
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5.1 TOPOGRAPHICAL SURVEY ....................................................................................... 64

5.1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 64
5.1.2 Scope of Topographic Survey ................................................................................ 64
5.1.3 Establishment of Geodetic Control Points Using Global Positioning System (GPS) 65
5.1.4 Tying With National Coordinate System ................................................................. 65
5.1.5 Coordinate System ................................................................................................ 65
5.1.6 Benchmark Setup .................................................................................................. 66
5.1.7 Collection of Cross-section Data ............................................................................ 66
5.1.8 Data Processing and CADD................................................................................... 67
5.2 GEOMETRIC DESIGN ................................................................................................. 67
5.2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 67
5.2.2 Design Control and Criteria .................................................................................... 68
5.2.3 Functional Classification ........................................................................................ 68
5.2.4 Traffic Volume........................................................................................................ 68
5.2.5 Design parameters................................................................................................. 70
5.2.6 Typical Cross sections ........................................................................................... 71
5.2.7 Side slopes for cuts and fills................................................................................... 72
5.2.8 Departures from standard ...................................................................................... 74
5.3 ROAD SAFETY ............................................................................................................ 74
5.3.1 Road Safety Design ............................................................................................... 74
5.4 HYDROLOGY / HYDRAULIC DESIGN ......................................................................... 80
5.4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 80
5.4.2 Hydrological Study ................................................................................................. 84
5.4.3 Hydraulic Design .................................................................................................... 91
5.4.4 Drainage Outlet...................................................................................................... 91
5.4.5 Conclusion and Recommendation ......................................................................... 92
5.5 SOIL AND MATERIALS INVESTIGATION .................................................................... 93
5.5.1 Back grounds ......................................................................................................... 93
5.5.2 Field Investigation Works ....................................................................................... 93
5.6 PAVEMENT DESIGN ................................................................................................. 103
5.6.1 Design Standards and Departures ....................................................................... 103
5.6.2 Homogenous Sections and Design CBR.............................................................. 103
5.6.3 Traffic Loading and Design Traffic ....................................................................... 106
5.6.4 Pavement Thickness Design................................................................................ 109
5.6.5 Design of Shoulder .............................................................................................. 111
5.7 GEOTECHNICAL DESIGN ......................................................................................... 113
5.7.1 General ................................................................................................................ 113
5.7.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 113
5.7.3 Investigation and Design Standard ...................................................................... 113
5.7.4 Geology and Geomorphology of the project area ................................................. 114
5.7.5 Seismic and Tectonic Setting of the Project area ................................................. 115
5.7.6 Back slope formations.......................................................................................... 117
5.7.7 Slope Stability Along the Route Alignment ........................................................... 118
5.7.8 Design of Slopes.................................................................................................. 119
5.7.9 Problematic Soils ................................................................................................. 120
5.7.10 Erodible Soils ....................................................................................................... 121
5.7.11 Preliminary Foundation Investigation, and Recommendation ............................... 122
5.8 STRUCTURAL DESIGN ............................................................................................. 124
5.8.1 Field Reconnaissance.......................................................................................... 124
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5.8.2 Condition and Description of Existing Drainage Structures .................................. 124

5.8.3 Structural Design Standard .................................................................................. 124
5.8.4 Foundation Investigation: ..................................................................................... 125
5.8.5 Design of Retaining Wall: ..................................................................................... 125
5.8.6 Material Properties: .............................................................................................. 126
5.9 PRELIMINARY PROJECT CONSTRUCTION COST .................................................. 127
5.9.1 Costing Approach ................................................................................................ 127
5.9.2 Unit Costs ............................................................................................................ 127
5.9.3 Cost Components Provided on Percentage Basis ................................................ 128
5.9.4 Project Construction Costs................................................................................... 128
6 ECONOMIC EVALUATION ...................................................................... 130
6.1 Objectives and Overview ............................................................................................ 130
6.2 Economic Evaluation Methodology ............................................................................. 130
6.3 Inputs for Estimation of Vehicle Operating Costs ........................................................ 131
6.3.1 Vehicle Operating Cost ........................................................................................ 131
6.3.2 Cost Unit Price of Vehicles................................................................................... 131
6.3.3 Unit Price of Tires ................................................................................................ 132
6.3.4 Labour Cost: Maintenance Labour ....................................................................... 133
6.3.5 Labour Cost: Crew Cost ....................................................................................... 133
6.3.6 Price of Fuel and Lubricants ................................................................................ 133
6.3.7 Vehicle Prices ...................................................................................................... 133
6.3.8 Vehicles’ Physical Fleet Characteristics ............................................................... 134
6.4 Project Alternatives ..................................................................................................... 134
6.5 Road Works ................................................................................................................ 135
6.5.1 Improvement Options and Costs .......................................................................... 135
6.5.2 Maintenance Strategies ....................................................................................... 136
6.6 Economic Appraisal .................................................................................................... 137
6.6.1 Sensitivity Analysis .............................................................................................. 138
6.6.2 Conclusion and Recommendation ....................................................................... 139
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List of Figures
Figure 1-1: Accessibility and road Network of project Road........................................................... 9

Figure 1-2: Project Location Map ................................................................................................ 10
Figure 2-1: Consultations meeting............................................................................................... 14
Figure 3-1: Traffic and OD Survey Location Map ........................................................................ 16
Figure 3-1: Alternative routes in Shire Bekoji Section ....................................................................... 46
Figure 5-1: Concrete/Masonry Barrier Detail .............................................................................. 80
Figure 5-2: Projected road basin category map (Rift Valley basins) ............................................ 81
Figure 5-3: Kofele station mean monthly rainfall data .................................................................. 82
Figure 5-4: Kofele station mean monthly Temperature ................................................................ 82
Figure 5-5: Bokojie station mean monthly rainfall data ............................................................... 83
Figure 5-6: Bokojie station mean monthly Temperature ............................................................. 83
Figure 5-7: Region B1 Intensity -duration-frequency Curve (ERA) DDM,2013) .......................... 86
Figure 5-8: Corridor Topographic feature .................................................................................... 87
Figure 5-9: Watershed and Drainage plan................................................................................... 88
Figure 5-10: Kofele-Shire-Bokojie Junction land cover map ........................................................ 89
Figure 5-11: Kofele-Shire-Bokojie Junction Major soil cover map ................................................ 90
Figure 5-12: Analysis of Unit Delineation by CUSUM ................................................................ 105
Figure 5-13: Geology of the project area (Kofele – Kore- Bekoji road) ...................................... 115
Figure 5-14: Earthquake record in the Horn of Africa region from 1900 to 2010 ........................ 116
Figure 5-15: Ethiopia Seismic Hazard Map in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (ES EN
1998:2015)................................................................................................................................ 117
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List of Pictures
Picture 5-1: Start of the project (SOP), Kofele town roundabout .................................................. 94
Picture 5-2: Existing gravel road (deteriorated road with poor riding quality), at Km-6+000 ......... 94
Picture 5-3: Existing gravel road (deteriorated road with poor riding quality), at km-17+200........ 94
Picture 5-4: Existing gravel road (very deteriorated road, difficult to access), at km-54+000 ............................. 94
Picture 5-5: Typical brown silty clay (Km-6+500) ......................................................................... 96
Picture 5-6: Dark brown high plastic silty clay (Km-40+500) ..................................................................... 96
Picture 5-7: Pockets of weathered rock & boulders (Km-41+200) .............................................................. 96
Picture 5-8: Light grey moderately weathered rock (Km-62+400) .............................................................. 96
Picture 5-9: Light grey moderately weathered rock (Km-61+800) .............................................................. 96
Picture 5-10: Black silty clay (Black cotton soil) at Km-63+150 ................................................................. 96
Picture 5-11: Site investigation works (Km-2+000 and Km-5+000) ............................................................ 97
Picture 5-12: Borrow pits Photo-1 ............................................................................................. 100
Picture 5-13: Borrow pits Photo-4 ............................................................................................. 100
Picture 5-14: Rock Quarry Photo-1 ........................................................................................... 100
Picture 5-15: Rock Quarry Photo-3 ........................................................................................... 101
Picture 5-16: Sand Source Photo-1 ........................................................................................... 101
Picture 5-17: Sand Source Photo-2 ........................................................................................... 102
Picture 5-18: Water Source Photo-1.......................................................................................... 102
Picture 5-19: Water Source Photo-3.......................................................................................... 103
Picture 5-20: Light grey to brown moderately weathered rock back slope formation @ Km-56+000 ................. 118
Picture 5-21: Light grey to brown moderately weathered rock back slope formation @ Km-62+000 ................. 118
Picture 5-22: Eroded black silty caly soil, from Km-62+300 to Km-63+250 ................................................ 122
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List of Tables
Table 0-1: Project Description ..................................................................................................... xiv

Table 0-2: Summary of Normal Traffic – Kofele - Kore- Shire....................................................... xv
Table 0-3: Summary of Normal Traffic Shire – Kersa ................................................................... xv
Table 0-4: Summary of Normal Traffic Shire – Qubsa .................................................................. xv
Table 0-5: Traffic forecast for Kofela-Shire ................................................................................... xv
Table 0-6: Traffic forecast for Shire – Kersa ................................................................................ xvi
Table 0-7: Traffic forecast for Shire- Qubsa ................................................................................ xvi
Table 0-8: Design Standard for sections of the Project Road ..................................................... xvii
Table 0-9: control points............................................................................................................. xvii
Table 0-10: Route alternatives in section B ............................................................................. xviii
Table 0-15: Summary of MCA for Section B ............................................................................ xviii
Table 0-12: Summary of Identified Construction Materials ........................................................... xx
Table 0-13: Summary of Proctor and CBR test results ................................................................. xx
Table 0-14: Pavement Thickness for Carriageway, Kofele-Kore-Shire Section .......................... xxii
Table 0-15: Pavement Thickness for Carriageway, Shire – Bekoji Section................................ xxiii
Table 0-16: Result of Economic Evaluation ................................................................................ xxv
Table 0-17: Results of Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................. xxv
Table 1-1 Contract Data ................................................................................................................ 2
Table 1-2: project Description ....................................................................................................... 7
Table 1-3: Project Control Points .................................................................................................. 8
Table 2-1:- Responsibilities of Stakeholders ............................................................................. 13
Table 3-1: Vehicle Classification ................................................................................................. 17
Table 3-2: Kofele - Kore- Shire.................................................................................................... 18
Table 3-3: Shire -Kersa ............................................................................................................... 18
Table 3-4: Shire – Qubsa ............................................................................................................ 19
Table 3-5: Night Time Traffic Count Surveys Kofele - Kore- Shire ............................................... 19
Table 3-6: Night Time Traffic Count Surveys Shire - Kersa ......................................................... 19
Table 3-7: Night Time Traffic Count Surveys Shire- Qubsa ......................................................... 19
Table 3-8: Night Factor Estimation from Kofele - Kore- Shire ...................................................... 20
Table 3-9:: Night Factor Estimation from Shire - Kersa ............................................................... 20
Table 3-10: Night Factor Estimation from Shire - Qubsa ............................................................. 21
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Table 3-11: Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Kofele - Kore- Shire ..................................... 21
Table 3-12: Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Shire – Kersa ............................................... 21
Table 3-13: Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Shire – Qubsa.............................................. 22
Table 3-14: Day Time Non-Motorized Traffic survey result Kofele - Kore- Shire .......................... 22
Table 3-15: Day Time Non-Motorized Traffic survey result Shire - Kersa .................................... 22
Table 3-16: Day Time Non-Motorized Traffic survey result Shire - Qubsa ................................... 23
Table 3-17: Night Time Non-motorized Traffic survey result Kofele - Kore- Shire ........................ 23
Table 3-18: Night Time Non-motorized Traffic survey result Shire – Kersa ................................. 23
Table 3-19: Night Time Non-motorized Traffic survey result Shire – Qubsa ................................ 24
Table 3-20: Night Factor Determination for Kofele - Kore- Shire................................................ 24
Table 3-21: Night Factor Determination for Shire - Kersa ............................................................ 25
Table 3-22: Night Factor Determination for Shire – Qubsa .......................................................... 25
Table 3-23: Non-Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Kofele - Kore- Shire ............................. 26
Table 3-24: Non-Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Shire – Kersa ....................................... 26
Table 3-25: Non-Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Shire – Qubsa ...................................... 26
Table 3-26: Modal shifts are calculated as follows: ..................................................................... 28
Table 3-27: Modal shift Traffic ..................................................................................................... 29
Table 3-28: Summary of Normal Traffic – Kofele - Kore- Shire.................................................... 29
Table 3-29: Summary of Normal Traffic Shire – Kersa ................................................................ 29
Table 3-30: Summary of Normal Traffic Shire – Qubsa ............................................................... 29
Table 3-31: Seasonal Conversion Factor .................................................................................... 30
Table 3-32: Travel time to estimate Generated Traffic Factor...................................................... 32
Table 3-33: Estimate of Generated Traffic Factors from the travel time Kofela-Shire Bekoji ........ 32
Table 3-34: Potential Generated Traffic for Project Road Koffela-Shire....................................... 32
Table 3-35: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) of the Project Road at 2021 ........................... 33
Table 3-36: Annual Average Daily Traffic (ADT) of the Project Road at 2021 Shire – Kersa ....... 33
Table 3-37: Annual Average Daily Traffic (ADT) of the Project Road at 2021 Shire – Qubsa ...... 33
Table 3-38: Income Elasticity of Demand for Transport ............................................................... 35
Table 3-39: Selected Performance and Forecasted Growth Rates of Ethiopia ............................ 36
Table 3-40: Consultant’s Estimate for Elasticity of Demand ........................................................ 38
Table 3-41: Average Annual Traffic Growth-Low Scenario .......................................................... 39
Table 3-42: Average Annual Traffic Growth-Medium Scenario .................................................... 39
Table 3-43: Average Annual Traffic Growth-High Scenario ......................................................... 40
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Table 3-44: Base year Traffic (at 2025) – AAD from Kofele - Kore- Shire .................................... 40
Table 3-45: Base year Traffic (at 2025) – AADT from Shire – Kersa ........................................... 41
Table 3-46: Base year Traffic (at 2025) – AADT from Shire – Qubsa .......................................... 41
Table 3-47: Traffic forecast for Kofela-Shire ................................................................................ 41
Table 3-48: Traffic forecast for Shire – Kersa .............................................................................. 42
Table 3-49: Traffic forecast for Shire- Qubsa .............................................................................. 42
Table 3-50: Design Standard for sections of the Project Road .................................................... 43
Table 4-1: Alternative Routes ......................................................................................................... 44
Table 4-2: Key Features ................................................................................................................. 45
Table 4-3: Scores for Engineering Assessment Section B ................................................................... 48
Table 4-4: Levels of Environmental Risk with Corresponding ECA Value for each alternative. .............. 50
Table 4-5: Calculation of Aggregate ECA Risk Numbers ................................................................... 51
Table 4-6: ECA Value and MCA Scores .......................................................................................... 51
Table 4-7: preliminary comparison for route options .......................................................................... 54
Table 4-8: Scores for Social Assessment Section B .......................................................................... 57
Table 4-9: Comparison of Economic Consideration of Section B......................................................... 58
Table 4-10: Scores for Economic Assessment Section B .................................................................... 58
Table 4-11: Administrative Considerations Section B ........................................................................ 59
Table 4-12: Aggregate results of the alternative routes ....................................................................... 59
Table 5-1: EMA Control Point...................................................................................................... 66
Table 5-2: List of Stations Surveyed for Kofele-Kore-Bekoji Road ............................................... 66
Table 5-3: Road functional Classification verses Design Period .................................................. 68
Table 5-4: AADT along the road sections ................................................................................... 69
Table 5-5: Project terrain classification for design standard consideration................................... 69
Table 5-6: Geometric Design Standard Parameters for DC5 Road ............................................. 70
Table 5-7: Town Sections along the Project ................................................................................ 72
Table 5-8: Slope Ratio Table – Vertical to Horizontal .................................................................. 73
Table 5-9: Basic Roadway Features in Towns, and Developing Towns,...................................... 76
Table 5-10: Guide post Spacing .................................................................................................. 79
Table 5-11: Design standard /class and recommended return period .......................................... 84
Table 5-12: Region B2 design rainfall (ERA DDM,2013) ............................................................. 85
Table 5-13: Land cover and Hydrologic soil group for project watershed..................................... 90
Table 5-14: Number of collected subgrade samples ................................................................... 98
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Table 5-15: Summary of Identified Construction Materials, Kofele-Kore-Bekoji ........................... 99

Table 5-16: Laboratory Test Results and CUSUM .................................................................... 104
Table 5-17: Identified Uniform Sections .................................................................................... 105
Table 5-18: Annual Average Daily Traffic (ADT) of the Project Road at 2021 Kofele – Shire..... 107
Table 5-19: Annual Average Daily Traffic (ADT) of the Project Road at 2021 ............................ 107
Table 5-20: Design Standard ......................................................................................................... 108
Table 5-21: Equivalency factors, ESA/Vehicle type ................................................................... 108
Table 5-22: Estimation of Cumulative Design ESA, for 15 design period................................... 108
Table 5-23: Estimation of Cumulative Design ESA, for 20 design period................................... 108
Table 5-24: Traffic Volume and Loading, Summary .................................................................. 109
Table 5-25: Traffic Volume and Loading, Recommended .......................................................... 109
Table 5-26: Pavement Thickness for Carriageway, Kofele-Kore-Shire Section ......................... 110
Table 5-27: Pavement Thickness for Carriageway, Shire – Bekoji Section................................ 110
Table 5-28: Recommended Shoulder and Walkway .................................................................. 111
Table 5-29: Pavement Thickness for Shoulder .......................................................................... 112
Table 5-30: Pavement Thickness for Walk way (Town section) ................................................. 112
Table 5-31: Legend for the Geological Descriptions .................................................................. 114
Table 5-32: Simplified Regional Geology .................................................................................. 114
Table 5-33: Bed rock acceleration ratio α0 as per ES EN 1998:2015 ........................................ 117
Table 5-34: Black slope formation for Kofele – Kore – Bekoji junction ....................................... 117
Table 5-35: Slope Ratio Table – Vertical to Horizontal (V: H) .................................................... 119
Table 5-36: List of Problematic Soil sections for Kofele-Kore-Bekoji project .............................. 120
Table 5-37: List of Major Structures and Site inspection, Summary........................................... 123
Table 5-38: Preliminary Foundation Recommendation, Summary ............................................. 123
Table 5-39: Grades of Reinforcement used for minor and major Structures ......................... 128
Table 6-1: Unit Prices of Vehicles ............................................................................................. 132
Table 6-2: Price of Tires for ERA Classified Vehicles ................................................................ 132
Table 6-3: The value of time in Economic Unit Costs (Eth Birr) ................................................. 133
Table 6-4: Vehicles’ Physical Fleet Characteristics ................................................................... 134
Table 6-5: Investment Cost of Project Road Project [ETB] ........................................................ 136
Table 6-6: Maintenance Cost .................................................................................................... 137
Table 6-7: Result of Economic Evaluation ................................................................................. 138
Table 6-8: Results of Sensitivity Analysis .................................................................................. 138
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Annex
Annex 1: Minutes of Meeting
Annex 2: Hydrology and Hydraulics
Annex 3: Typical Section
Annex 4: HDM4 Output
Annex 5: Comment Response Matrix
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ABBREVIATIONS
For clarity and precision in presentation, many abbreviations of technical words and
agencies/organizations are mentioned through this report. Below, they are listed, abbreviated, and
defined as follows:
a.m.s.l Above Mean Sea Level
AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic
AASHTO American Association of State Highways & Transportation Officials
ADT Average Daily Traffic

BCR Benefit Cost Ratio
BM Bench Mark
BOQ Bill of Quantities
BRDG Bridge
CBR California Bearing Ratio
CC Community Conversation
CL Centreline
DCP Dynamic Cone Penetration
DEM Digital Elevation Model
DTM Digital Terrain Model
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
EIRR Economical Internal Rate of Return
EMA Ethiopian Mapping Agency
EMSA Ethiopian Meteorological Services Agency
ERA Ethiopian Roads Administration
ESAL Equivalent Standard Axle Load
FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GIS Geographical Information System
GPS Global positioning System
GWC Gravel Wearing Course
HW Head Wall
LAA Los Angeles Abrasion Test
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LCCA Life cost Cycle Analysis

LHS Left Hand Side
LL Liquid limit
LRFD Load Resistance and Factor Design
MoFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
NPV Net Present Value
OD Origin Destination
OD Origin Destination
OVC Orphan Vulnerable Children
PAP Project Affected Persons
PI Plasticity Index
PIA Project Influence Area
PMTCT Presentation of Mother to Child Transmission Treatment
PRDI Personal Real Disposal Income
QA Quality Assurance
QAP Quality Assurance Plan
QC Quality Control
RAP Resettlement Action Plan
ROW Right of Way
RSDP Road Sector Development Program
STD Sexual Transmitted Disease
Stn. Station
TOR Terms of Reference
VCT Volunteer Counselling and Testing
VOC Vehicle Operating Cost
VPD Vehicle per Day
WPI Wholesale Price Index
WW Wing Wall
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Background
The Ethiopian Roads Administration (ERA) on behalf of FDRE has selected Consultant to
provide Consultancy Services for Concept Design, Risk Assessment, Feasibility and
Environmental Impact Assessment Studies, Resettlement Action Plan, and Tender
Document Preparation & Engineering Cost Estimation of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and Arsi
Negele – Bilalo Junction.
Accordingly, the Ethiopian Roads Administration (ERA) of the Federal Democratic Republic of
Ethiopia (the Employer) signed an Agreement with Beles Consulting Engineers PLC on
March 30, 2021 for Concept Design, Risk Assessment, Feasibility and Environmental
Impact Assessment Studies, Resettlement Action Plan, and Tender Document
Preparation & Engineering Cost Estimation of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and Arsi Negele –
Bilalo Junction.
The purpose of this the Feasibility Study report is to provide:

 ERA and the Financiers with all the necessary information to assess the proposed project
in technical, economic, environmental and social terms,
 Preliminary project costs and benefits.
Even though the project is multi segments which is composed of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and
Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction and the report shall cover both project segments. This report
covers the Kofele – Kore – Bekoji Road section only since the Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction
road segment had been submitted separately.
Introduction
The Kofele – Kore – Bekoji road project starts from Kofele town which is located from
Shashemene about 25km and from Addis Ababa about 260km and the project end at Koji
Katara 15km from Bekoji on Gobesa - Bekoji - Kersa road design project based on the final
route selection assessments. The total project length of this project is approximately 69.3 km.
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Table 0-1: Project Description
Package 6: Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and Arsi Negele

Project name
– Bilalo Junction Road Project
Project No. S/17/NCB/RFP/GOE/2013 EFY
Region/Zone Oromiya regional state/West Arsi /Arsi zone
Kofele, Kore,Gedebe Assasa,Munisa, and Limuna
Woreda
Bilbilo
Kofele (X=476254 Y=782137), 25km From
Starting Point Description
Shashemene
Koji Katara Villages (X=515294 Y=829671), 15km
Ending Point Description from Bekoji on Gobesa - Bekoji - Kersa road design
project
Kofele – Kore – Length (km) Approximately ranges from 69.3km
Bekoji
Road Functional Classification Main Access Road
Traffic Volume(AADT)/Design
681/DC5
Standard
Climate Classification C3-C4 Weina Dega to Dega

Elevation (m) (min – max) 2460 - 2913
TRAFFIC DATA AND ANALYSIS
A traffic count conducted on Kofele - Kore- Shire, Shire – Kersa(Bekoji ) and Shire – Qubsa
road project on the first week of June 2021, which represent one of the traffic count cycle of
ERA, [i.e. on Cycle three]. The consultant sought it is better to see the project’s significance in
terms of creating connections towns such as Kofele - Kore- Shire, Shire – Kersa(Bekoji ) and
Shire - Qubsa has a great socio-economic as well as political importance. Meanwhile, the
consultant conducted a survey on both motorized and non-motorized traffic count on selected
road sections, from Kofele - Kore- Shire (TC-1), Shire – Kersa(Bekoji ) (TC-2) and Shire –
Qubsa (TC-3) on the existing roads are currently serving both traffics . The following table gives
the summary of the motorized traffics.
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Table 0-2: Summary of Normal Traffic – Kofele - Kore- Shire

Determination of Normal Traffic
Vehicle Type Cars LDV S/Bus M/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T Total
Average Daily Traffic 0 25 30 37 3 67 20 4 4 192
(ADT)
SCF 1.03 1.18 1.15 0.96 0.78 1.06 1.11 1.22 1.17
AADT 0 30 34 36 3 72 23 5 5 207
Source: Consultant
Table 0-3: Summary of Normal Traffic Shire – Kersa
(ADT)
SCF 1.03 1.18 1.15 0.96 0.78 1.06 1.11 1.22 1.17
AADT 0 18 22 10 2 27 9 3 2 94
Source: Consultant
Table 0-4: Summary of Normal Traffic Shire – Qubsa

(ADT)
SCF 1.03 1.18 1.15 0.96 0.78 1.06 1.11 1.22 1.17
AADT 0 12 14 7 2 17 6 2 1 60
Source: Consultant
Traffic projection has been made for 15 consecutive years of the design period from the
opening of the road to traffic by applying the growth rates estimated above. The following gives
the forecasted traffic for each years of the design period of the project. The projection is made
for normal, diverted and generated traffic.
Table 0-5: Traffic forecast for Kofela-Shire
Year Car 4 WD S/ Bus M/ Bus L/ Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T TOTAL
2025 0 48 67 82 4 120 38 9 8 377
2026 0 52 73 88 5 133 42 10 9 412
2027 0 57 80 95 5 146 46 10 10 450
2028 0 62 87 103 5 160 51 11 11 492
2029 0 67 94 111 6 175 56 13 12 533
2030 0 73 102 120 6 191 61 14 13 579
2031 0 78 110 129 7 208 66 15 15 628
2032 0 85 119 140 7 226 72 16 16 681
2033 0 91 129 151 8 247 78 18 17 739
2034 0 99 140 163 8 269 85 19 19 802
2035 0 107 151 176 9 293 93 21 21 870
2036 0 115 163 190 10 320 102 23 22 944
2037 0 124 176 205 11 348 111 25 24 1024
2038 0 134 190 222 11 380 121 27 27 1111
2039 0 145 205 239 12 414 132 30 29 1206
Source: Consultant
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Table 0-6: Traffic forecast for Shire – Kersa
2025 0 30 46 25 4 55 16 5 3 183
2026 0 32 50 27 4 60 17 6 4 200
2027 0 35 55 29 4 66 19 6 4 218
2028 0 38 60 31 5 73 21 7 4 239
2029 0 42 65 34 5 80 23 8 5 260
2030 0 45 71 37 5 88 25 9 5 284
2031 0 49 77 39 6 96 27 9 6 311
2032 0 54 83 43 6 106 30 10 6 339
2033 0 58 90 46 7 116 33 11 7 368
2034 0 63 98 50 7 126 36 12 8 399
2035 0 68 105 54 8 137 39 13 8 432
2036 0 73 114 58 8 150 42 14 9 469
2037 0 79 123 63 9 163 46 16 10 509
2038 0 85 133 68 10 178 50 17 11 552
2039 0 92 143 73 11 194 55 19 12 598
Source; Consultant
Table 0-7: Traffic forecast for Shire- Qubsa

2025 0 21 37 38 3 32 12 4 2 148
2026 0 23 40 41 3 35 13 4 2 162
2027 0 25 44 44 3 39 14 5 3 176
2028 0 27 47 47 3 43 16 5 3 192
2029 0 30 51 51 4 46 17 6 3 208
2030 0 32 56 55 4 51 19 6 4 226
2031 0 35 60 60 4 55 21 7 4 245
2032 0 37 65 64 5 60 22 7 4 266
2033 0 40 71 69 5 65 24 8 5 288
2034 0 44 76 75 5 71 27 9 5 312
2035 0 47 83 81 6 78 29 9 5 338
2036 0 51 89 87 6 85 32 10 6 367
2037 0 55 96 94 7 92 35 11 6 397
2038 0 59 104 102 7 101 38 12 7 430
2039 0 64 112 110 8 110 41 13 8 466
Source; Consultant
The design standard of a road is determined by the volume of traffic on the project road at the
mid of the design period. The following shows the design standard of the road sections with
respect to mid-year traffic volume. As it is stipulated in below in the table 2-50 Kofele - Kore-
Shire has 681 AADT, Shire – Kersa 339 and Shre – Qubsa has 266 AADT. In hindsight the
consultant adopted the highest traffic volume [AADT 681] of the road corridor as design traffic
volume for the proposed road project.
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Table 0-8: Design Standard for sections of the Project Road
Section Mid-Year(2032) AADT Design Standard Remark

Kofele - Kore- Shire 681 DC5 ERA 2013
Shire – Kersa 339 DC5 ERA 2013
Shre – Qubsa 266 DC 4 ERA 2013
Source: Consultant
Route Selection
In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the main purpose of project road is to create
connections between the major towns in the area; i.e, Kofele, Kore and Bekoji towns while
providing access to villages, towns and surrounding areas along the project road. Considering
these and term of refrence , Kofele, Kore and Bekoji towns are identified as the control points
of the project road and their specific coordinates are shown in the table below. However
considering the project area road network, construction and design project and the
consultation with Woreda and zones administration and ERA, the project end control points
,Bekoje, has been changes to Qubsa, Koji Katara, Kersa and their coordinate is shown in the
table below.
Table 0-9: control points
Station Control Point Coordinate Description

No.
From Easting Northing
Section A
1 0+000 476255 782137 Kofele
2 25+000 798664 Kore

493773
3 29+000 799730 Shire

497572
Section B
3 29+000 799730 Shire

497572
4 59+500 525446 795634 Qubsa
5 69+300 515294 829630 Koji Katara
6 67+600 497383 832082 Kersa
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Considering different factors and woreda, Zone and Oromia Region requests, the whole road
corridors divided into Two Major Section, Section I only have one alternatives, Section II which
have three alternatives as listed below.
The first section i.e Kofele - Kore - Shire does not have any alternatives. And the second
section has three alternative which ends at different location. Therefore the second section
which have route alternative has been evaluated. The MCA of each alternative in the section
B for this particular project is shown in table below.
Table 0-10: Route alternatives in section B

Estimated
Route Section Geometric Length,
Alternative Km Remark
Alternative 1 29.7 Shire - Qubsa(Bekoji Junction)
Alternative 2 39.2 Shire - Kojikatara
Alternative 3 37.86 Shire - Kersa
Table 0-11: Summary of MCA for Section B

Primary Criteria Sub Weigh Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3
Engineering 35 31.35 26.54 24.68
Social 25 17.5 23.5 21.5
Environmental 20 12.75 11.5 10.75
Economic 10 10 8.72 9.72
Administrative 10 7 9 8
Total 100 78.6 79.26 74.65
Based on the multi-criteria comparative assessments carried out for the identified alternative
routes as outlined in the sections above, it is concluded that Alternative 2 are the most preferred
alternative routes.
The primary reasons for the selection of Alternative 2 is the highest social and strategic values
when it compares with the other option. This alternative route has significant strategic benefits
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based on Consultation with Oromia road authority in addition to maximize traffic connectivity
and access to economic resources and market.
Considering the foregoing, the Consultant recommends Alternative 2 which comprise Kofele -
Kore - Shire - Koji Katara for Concept design and subsequent construction works.
Topographic Surveying
For carrying the survey work the consultant request and collected EMA control point called
KUYR within the Project Corridor and deployed high and precision instruments like GPS, Total
station, and Auto level in compliance to the TOR.
The scope and methodology of the topographic surveying works conducted in the specified
sections (20% of the road segments) mainly undertook based on international standards and
ERA manuals.
Soil And Materials Investigation
Site survey and investigation works have been conducted to assess the overall condition of the
project road corridor and to collect the relevant information required for the concept design
purpose. The subgrade soil investigation was aimed to assess the actual condition of the
alignment soil which includes soil extension survey, sampling, logging and testing.
Accordingly, a total of seventy (70) test pits were excavated for the Kofele – Kore - Bekoji road
project and the subgrade samples were collected for complete test (every 3km interval) and
indication test (every 1km interval). Complete test includes CBR, Moisture-Density relation,
Atterberg Limits and Classification tests, whereas indication test includes Atterberg Limits and
Classification tests
Potential sources of construction materials were identified and located, which include possible
sources of rock, natural gravel sources, embankment source, natural sand and water.
Representative samples were collected from these sources for further investigation of their
quality test as stated in the ToR and design standard.
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Table 0-12: Summary of Identified Construction Materials
Type of Number of
SN Intended Purpose
sources Identified sources
1 Soil Borrow Areas For fill and embankment 9
2 Gravel Borrow Pits For natural subbase course and granular backfill 4
3 Hard Rock Quarry For Crushed aggregate 4
4 Masonry Source For Masonry stone 6
5 Sand For fine aggregate of concrete works 3
6 Water For compaction and concrete works 7
For all collected soil and materials samples of Kofele-Kore-Bekoji road proejct, subsequent
laboratory testing were carried out in two central materials laboratories (ICT Engineering Plc
for Kofele – Kore – Shire road section and STADIA Engineering Works Consultant Plc for Shire
– Bekoji road section), based on the proper test order given by the senior Material / Pavement
Engineer of the project.
Table 0-13: Summary of Proctor and CBR test results

Modified Proctor Soaked CBR
Description MDD, OMC, CBR , % Swell, %
gm/cm3 %
Number of Test 24 24 24 24
Min Value 1.29 15 1.10 0.63
Max Value 1.71 33.4 13.50 8.20
Acceptable Criteria (ERA 2013) - - Min 5% Max 3%
Thus, in terms of strength, CBR and swell test result conducted on the Kofele-Kore-Bekoji road
implies that 50% of the subgrade soil can be categorized as weak subgrade soil (with CBR less
than 5%) to be used as road bed of the road formation.
Out of the six subgrade groups, S1 (CBR <3%) and S4 (CBR: 8% - 14%) have got the highest
proportion having 29.2% each of the subgrade materials tested in the laboratory. S2 (CBR: 3%
- 4%) and S3 (CBR: 5% - 7%) subgrade covers the remaining portion having 20.8% each of
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the collected subgrade soils. Hence, 50% of the collected subgrade soils have S1 and S2
subgrade soil with CBR less than 5%, hence indication for presence of weak subgrade soil.
Hydrological and Hydraulic Analysis
The project is passes through plain and rolling sections dissected by minor and major streams
and flow concentration drainage lines. Defined major streams mostly provided by existing
structures that need to be maintained with some improvement works. Plain section of the road
characterized by spatially distributed shallow depth flow often overtops existing at grade access
road. However, most existing minor cross drainage structures are found to be hydraulically
insufficient and required to be replaced by appropriate size cross drainage structures.
At this preliminary drainage structures design stage, pipe, slab/box culverts and bridges cross
drainage structures need to be in place for improved road drainability. Road Side flow collection
and guide drainage facilities also proposed on the road segments both at rural and town
sections as required. A total of 129 cross drainage structures (6 bridges ,20 slab/box and 103
pipe culverts) recommended at concept design stage on Kofele-Shire- Bokojie (Koji katara)
Road segment. As the hydraulic preliminary design has been made by large based on coarse
resolution satellite data, all recommendations need to be revaluated and designed properly
employing the right and better-quality data.
Geometric design
The preliminary geometric design of the project road has been conducted using DEM resolution
of 30m*30m, detailed topography surveying data (20%) and finding of the traffic count for
design standard which shows DC5.
As discussed above owing to applying uniformity in the design of the project road, the ERA
design standard has been adopted. The recommended ERA Geometric design parameters for
DC5 (Paved) design standard have been used for the geometric design of the roads.
Road safety
The burden of road traffic injuries and fatalities is huge in Ethiopia. Road safety philosophies
generally express a long-term vision of an ideal road traffic system where accidents and serious
personal injury are virtually eliminated.
The following Road safety design principles and strategies employed in the project road to
improve the road safety and to reduce the accidents.
 Incorporating safety features into road design
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 Safer routes for pedestrians and cyclists

 Side walk curb ramps
 Traffic-calming measures
 Bus Lay-Bys
 Road side Furniture and Road Markings
Pavement Design
Analysis of the traffic characteristics of the project area was carried out to determine the design
traffic; and relevant data regarding the soil foundation and construction material were assessed
to determine the bearing strength of the sub grade materials and construction material
specification. The best economical combination of pavement layers (in relation to both
thickness and type of materials) that suit the underlying sub grade materials and the cumulative
traffic to be carried during the design life of the road is then determined. The appropriate
pavement structures are selected from the structural catalogue of ERA Pavement Design
Manual 2013. Problematic soil stretches are also treated with appropriate treatment measures.
And the forecasted cumulative standard axle loads of the project for selected design period (15
years) equals to 3.16 million which falls under T5 traffic class as per ERA Pavement Design
Manual, 2013. Accordingly, following pavement thickness has been recommended
Table 0-14: Pavement Thickness for Carriageway, Kofele-Kore-Shire Section
Road section Pavement Section, from Km-0+000 to Km-30+000
Subgrade Class before treatment
S1 (CBR: <3%)
(natural ground)
Subgrade Class after treatment
S3 (CBR: 5% - 7%)
(improved subgrade)
Design Standard DC5
Traffic Class / Loading T5 (3 – 6 million esa)
Surfacing (wearing course) AC (Asphalt concrete)
Asphalt thickness 50 mm
Base course type Granular road base, GB1
Base course thickness 175 mm
Subbase type Granular subbase, GS
Subbase Thickness 325 mm
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Table 0-15: Pavement Thickness for Carriageway, Shire – Bekoji Section

Subgrade Class after treatment S3 (CBR: 5% - 7%)
Design Standard DC5
Geotechnical Design
The geological formation of the Kofele – Kore – Bekoji junction road comprises mainly two
types of geological formation (nazreth series and chilalo formations).
From the overall site findings, it is possible to observed that, majority of the local geology of the
route alignment is covered by high plastic silty clay which is the residual and weathering effect
of the parent Quaternary Volcanic and Sedimentary Rocks.
Preliminary Foundation Investigation, and Recommendation
Foundation conditions of major crossing sites along the project route have been briefly
assessed in conjunction with soil and construction material survey. These are crossing sites
with total openings of 6m and above believed to be major crossings that require the
construction of bridge structure.
Structural Design
To obtain first-hand information regarding the condition of existing structures and to look for
alternative options for drainage crossings, a site visit was taken to the project site. Accordingly,
the project team has collected relevant data to compile the concept deign report.
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After driving through each road alignments, only three bridges are proposed to be retained after
analysing visual inspection. It is observed that these structures are under construction and their
carriage way width satisfies the current roadway standard requirement.
ERA’s bridge design manual shall be used, along with AASHTO LRFD bridge design
specification 2013 (or latest), for the structural design of bridges.
The culvert size and shape selected is to be based on Hydraulic and economic criteria related
to site conditions. Absolute minimum sizes of 1006mm for cross culverts shall be used to avoid
maintenance problems and clogging of culverts as observed in the existing road section of the
project.
Economic Evaluation
The approach for the economic feasibility study of the proposed roads was based on the
evaluation of costs and benefits, comparing the base case/ the “without project” case or the do
minimum case against the “with-the project” scenario (AC and DBST) to the selected route.
The appropriate input data and information for the road has been collected through field visit
conducted in the project area and secondary data. The economic analysis of the road project
is undertaken to understand the importance of the project under study. The project has been
designed to meet a certain level of traffic demand. This design in turn has an impact on the
cost of the project. However, economic analysis brings the two together–costs and benefits
and weighs them to assess the returns on the investment made.
The project cost and benefit streams for each of the alternatives under with the project scenario
have been computed for each year of the project life. Each of these cost/benefit streams were
compared with the corresponding streams of Base Case Alternative (without the project
scenario) and economic internal rate of returns (EIRRs) have been worked out using
discounting technique. In addition, net present value (NPV) has been computed at 10.23% rate
of discount; opportunity cost of capital used for public project appraisal in Ethiopia.
The economic appraisal has been carried out for the entire project road (i.e. Kofele - Kore-
Shire - Bekoji) HDM IV model output containing summary results of economic appraisal,
detailed cost and benefit streams are presented in Annex. Summary results of the economic
appraisal are presented in the table below.
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Table 0-16: Result of Economic Evaluation
Sections Options NPV B-CR1 EIRI

AC 1,647.355 2.440 18.5
Kofele - Kore- Shire - Bekoji
DBST 838.366 1.798 17.4
Source: consultant
From the economic appraisal indicators set out in table above, both the alternative 1 (AC
Pavement) and alternative 2 (DBST) are economically viable; the EIRRs being much higher
than the cut-off rate of 10.23%.
The following sensitivity scenarios have been considered.
 20% increase in the capital cost of the project (Scenario I)

 20% decrease in project benefits (Scenario II)
 Scenario I and Scenario II taken together (Scenario III)
Results of the sensitivity analysis below Table shows for Alt -1 (AC) and Alt - 2 (DBST) indicate
that the project is economically viable even if the project cost increases by 20% or project
benefits decrease by 20% or both taken together.
Table 0-17: Results of Sensitivity Analysis

AC DBST
NPV B-CR EIRR NPV B-CR EIRR
1. 20% increase in Capital Cost (Scenario I) 1,422.075 2.038 16.6 633.016 1.492 15.0
2. 20% decrease in Project Benefits (Scenario II) 1,097.132 1.959 16.2 502.245 1.478 14.7
3. Scenarios I and II combined (Scenario III) 865.677 1.632 14.4 405.416 1.323 13.3
Source: Result of HDM IV Analysis, 2021
Conclusions and Recommendation
The HDM IV Model Software is used for the analysis of the study. Based on this the result illustrates
accordingly the EIRR of 18.5% for AC and 17.4 DBST options for the upgrading the proposed road
Kofele - Kore- Shire - Bekoji respectively. The Net Present Value of the proposed road project also
indicates the economic viability of the project options have NPV of 1,647.355 million ETB for AC
and 838.366 million ETB for DBST options Kofele - Kore- Shire - Bekoji respectively.
The economic evaluation with the EIRR, NPV, and BCR, shows the AC pavement option is higher
than DBST pavement options. Accordingly, the Consultant recommends the AC option for this road
project.
1
Benefit Cost Ratio
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1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has launched Road Sector Development
Program (RSDP) to enhance development objectives and the living standard of the population
all over the country. Accordingly, Ethiopian Roads Administration , on behalf of the Federal
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) is implementing various road projects including new
road construction, rehabilitation or upgrading of main trunk, link and rural roads to expand the
Roads Network all over the country.
The Ethiopian Roads Administration (ERA) has been given the mandate for the restoration,
expansion and maintenance of Ethiopia’s Federal Road Network. Its goal is to improve
transport operating efficiency and reduce road transport costs, provide access to rural,
neglected and food-deficit areas, and develop institution capacity of the sector.
ERA is responsible to the public for ensuring that all road projects are designed and
constructed to a high quality that provides best value for money. However, the history from
previous projects shows that significant and unnecessary cost overruns on construction
projects are common. It has been observed that most of this cost overruns are as a result of
errors or omissions either in the design outputs and the topographic survey or site
investigation.
As result of this, ERA as the executing agency, now requires that all designs and bidding
documents for construction are prepared to the highest quality in accordance with ERA’s
Design Manuals, Quality Manuals and Standard Specifications, and that all consultants
providing services for ERA abide by ERA Code of Professional Conduct an Ethics.
The Ethiopian Roads Administration (ERA) on behalf of FDRE has selected Consultant to
provide Consultancy Services for Concept Design, Risk Assessment, Feasibility and
Environmental Impact Assessment Studies, Resettlement Action Plan, and Tender
Document Preparation & Engineering Cost Estimation of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and
Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction.
Accordingly, the Ethiopian Roads Administration (ERA) of the Federal Democratic Republic
of Ethiopia (the Employer) signed an Agreement with Beles Consulting Engineers PLC on
March 30, 2021 for Concept Design, Risk Assessment, Feasibility and Environmental
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Impact Assessment Studies, Resettlement Action Plan, and Tender Document

Preparation & Engineering Cost Estimation of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and Arsi Negele
– Bilalo Junction.
The purpose of this the Feasibility Study report is to provide:
 ERA and the Financiers with all the necessary information to assess the proposed
project in technical, economic, environmental and social terms,
 Preliminary project costs and benefits.
Even though the project is multi segments which is composed of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and
Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction and the report shall cover both project segments. This report
covers the Kofele – Kore - Bekoji project Road section only since Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction
project road has been submitted separately.
1.2 Contract Data and Management
Table 1-1 Contract Data
Consultancy Services for Package 6: Concept Design, Risk

Assessment, Feasibility and Environmental Impact Assessment
Name of the Consultancy
Studies, Resettlement Action Plan, and Tender Document
services
Preparation & Engineering Cost Estimation of Kofele – Kore –
Bekoji and Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction.
Project name Package 6: Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction
Source of Fund Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Consultant Beles Consulting Engineers PLC
Employer Ethiopian Roads Administration (ERA)
Concept Design, Risk Assessment, Feasibility and Environmental
Type Of Service Impact Assessment Studies, Resettlement Action Plan, and Tender
Document Preparation & Engineering Cost Estimation
Project Period 4months
Consultancy Contract:
Signed on March 30, 2021
Commencement Date April 16, 2021
Planned Duration 4 months
Expected Completion
August 15, 2021
Date
Total Project Cost: 3,265,154.72 including 15% VAT

April 2022
1.3 Scope of Services and Objectives
The objectives of the consultancy services are:
i) Study the project setting in relation to alignment and construction work items
at desk top level supplemented by field assessment so as to produce quantities
of major work items coupled with preliminary cost estimate to an acceptable
degree of accuracy that may be indirectly used to frame the contract on a
design and build mode of contracting;
ii) Review the ERA 2013 and other applicable Standard Specifications and
ensure that project specific Requirement’s stated in the Employer’s
Requirement including the key departures from Standards are well addressed
in the Employer’s Requirement which will form the basis; together with the ERA
2013 Standard Specifications for quality control.
iii) Prepare separate documents of Concept Feasibility and Environmental
Impact Assessment, Resettlement Action Plan, Risk Assessment and Engineer’s
Estimate for both projects.
iv) Prepare complete set of tender documents based on ICB/NCB (to be

discussed and agreed upon later) to be used for tendering of the works contract on a
Design and Build basis.
The specific objective and an immediate aim of an environmental impact assessment of
this project is to properly guide the decision-making processes through identifying
potentially significant environmental effects and proposing realistic environmental
management and monitoring plan of the proposed project so that it will serve as a guide
for the upcoming Design-Build works Contractor and eventually help achieve the overall
objective of road sector development program.
The scope of services of the proposed project is to execute the committed assignment
with an utmost care, diligence and experience so that the implementation of the
construction project can be realized without undue imbalances of risks between the
contracting parties. To achieve these intentions, the scope of work includes but not limited
to the following.

April 2022
 The Consultant shall submit his activity plan and time schedule to ERA before
starting any work of his consultancy service or within 3 working days from
commencement date of the service.
 The Consultant shall confirm the project’s beginning and end control points and
determine intermediate control points of the project that are acceptable from social
point of view and fits the purpose of the project;
 Using latest topographic maps and/or satellite imagery (with higher degree of
resolution), select at least three alternate alignments that pass through the control
points and preliminarily choose the preferred alignment with full justifications based
generally on quantifiable parameters supplemented by quantifiable ones where
possible and also in close consultation with the stakeholders (Region, Zone, Woreda
and local people, etc.…)
 From the above alignment supplemented by other components of the desktop study;
determine the approximate length of the preferred option;
 The Consultant shall carryout identification of town sections along the alignment
(population size, master plan of the town, length of the town sections with X and Y
coordinates of the start and end points) in close consultation with local administrative
body.
 The Consultant shall identify the project terrain condition (Detail terrain classification
with station (km) based).
 The Consultant shall carry out detailed ground survey for 20% of the project length
by giving priority in the order of escarpment, mountainous, rolling and flat terrains of
the road.
 The Consultant shall conduct seven days Traffic count OD Survey, traffic forecast
and axle load survey (axle load data may be obtained or estimated from the nearby
road network traffic data and potential traffic sources along the alignment).
 The Consultant shall identify the project locations where it is impossible to implement
ERA’s Design Standards especially on very flat (especially Min gradient), mountains
and escarpment terrains and propose to what extent the design criterion can be
relaxed on such problematic areas.
 The Consultant shall conduct site visit, preliminary (soil extension survey), sub grade
soil investigation and identification/assessment of construction material sources.

April 2022
Sub grade identification test shall be conducted at 1 km interval and CBR of sub
grade soils shall be conducted at every 3km.
 Conduct preliminary identification of problematic areas (giving special attention for
problematic areas such as landslide prone areas, extent of expansive soil and
swampy area, etc.) and shall give possible recommendation to take remedial
measure on these areas.
 Conduct preliminary assessment of the Hydrology and Hydraulics component of the
preferred alignment from topographic maps and other relevant documents, including
the previous design documents (if any) so as to form a basis for the selection of the
type, size and number of drainage structure.
 From desk studies; compile a list of major initial findings and critical items to be
further investigated in the field by reconnaissance survey
 Scrutinize the alignment, drainage crossings, sub-grade, delineations, material
source locations and other components of the study;
 Assess the condition of the existing major drainage structure and recommend the
appropriate actions to be taken while construction;
 Make detailed study of ongoing and previously executed Design and Build projects
in order to eliminate the chance of recurrence of past undesirable experience as well
as to incorporate in the tender document any acceptable remedial measures;
 Produce the Employer’s Requirements component of the tender document from the
above preliminary study; design manuals, and supplemented by internationally
recognized standards to fill the gaps (if any) in the manuals and standards;
 Estimate the duration of the Project which is sufficient to execute the workload of the
project with optimum cost – time relationship and propose subdivision of project into
two contracts in the case that one project may happen to have got large workload
for one project to be implemented. In this case, the Consultant shall prepare
separate tender documents, engineering design report, risk assessment report and
cost estimates.
 Complete Cost Estimate for the Design and Build works Contract based on current
market prices.
 Prepare the performance requirement to be used for the warranty period and
maintenance scheme of the project;
 The Consultant shall conduct Roadway surfacing and geotechnical consideration

April 2022
 ESIA and RAP

 Feasibility Study
 Resettlement Action Plan
 Bidding Document Preparation and Preparation/Combining of the Prepared Cost
Estimate
1.4 Project Description
Kofele – Kore – Bekoji road project is located in the Central part of the Ethiopia, and lies
entirely in Oromia National Regional State of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia,
particularly in West Arsi and Arsi Zone as shown in the location map below. The Kofele –
Kore – Bekoji road project traverses through Kofele woreda, Kore woreda and Gedeb Asasa
woreda of West Arsi Zone and Munesa and Limuna Bilbilo woreda from arsi zone
The Kofele – Kore – Bekoji road project starts from Kofele town which is located from
shashemene about 25km and from addis ababa about 260km and the project end at Koji
Katara 15km from Bekoji on Gobesa - Bekoji - Kersa road design project based on the final
route selection assessments. The total project length of this project is approximately 69.3 km.
The project road mainly passes through farm land of Aris plane land of rolling and flat terrain
except some section which is mountainous at the end of the project section and some
settlements. The first road section from Kofele to Shire has 5-6m all weathered road and the
section from Shire to Koji Katara is not fully accessible road due to big rivers which could not
be crossed during rainy season.

April 2022
Table 1-2: project Description
Package 6: Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and Arsi Negele –

Project name
Bilalo Junction Road Project
Region/Zone Oromiya regional state/West Arsi /Arsi zone
Kofele, Kore,Gedebe Assasa,Munisa, and Limuna
Woreda
Bilbilo
Starting Point Kofele (X=476254 Y=782137), 25km From
Description Shashemene
Koji Katara Villages (X=515294 Y=829671), 15km
Ending Point
from Bekoji on Gobesa - Bekoji - Kersa road design
Description
project
Length (km) Approximately ranges from 69.3km
Kofele – Kore – Road Functional
Main Access Road
Bekoji Classification
Traffic
Volume(AADT)/Design 681/DC5
Standard
Climate Classification C3-C4 Weina Dega to Dega
Elevation (m) (min –
2460 - 2913
max)
Based on the TOR and site assessment the following point are considered as control points

April 2022
Table 1-3: Project Control Points
N Station Start Coordinate End Coordinate Description Category

o Length
From To Easting Northing Easting Northing
.
Kofele – Kore – Bekoji(Koji Katara)
Starting point,
1 0+000 3+000 3000 476255 782137 477736 784714 Town
Kofele town
2 20+700 25+200 4500 490236 796358 493921 798799 Kore Town intermediate
3 68+040 69+340 1300 514804 828478 515295 829672 Koji Katara Village Town
1.5 Accessibility of the project site
The project road has been assessed during the site visit and the following accessibility options
has been noted:
Option 1: the start of the project could be accessed from Addis Ababa travelling 285km
following the main road from Addis Ababa shashemene Bale road.
Option 2: the end point could be accessed following the main roads from Addis Ababa Adama
Asela Bokoji road then turn to right west south direction following the road from Bekoji to Kersa
which is constructed by URRAP.
The Accessibility of the road project from the main road is elaborated in the figure here below.

April 2022
Figure 1-1: Accessibility and road Network of project Road

1.6 Project Location map
The location map and general layout of the project road along with the project control
points is shown in Figure below

April 2022
Figure 1-2: Project Location Map

April 2022
2 CONSULTATIONS
2.1 General
Consultation is very important to make the proposed road project acceptable by all the
stakeholders and to create ownership of the project among the concerned parties. It will allow
getting advice and local knowledge that will help the project to be more sustainable and useful.
Therefore, the project consultant carried out the consultation with government officials and
experts, and representatives of communities at region, zone and Woreda levels during the
project alternative route selection process.
The objective of the consultations was to discuss the project alternative routes with
stakeholders and the public to get feedback on the proposed alternative routes as well as to
know their preference and to address their concern in the route selection process and get
their environmental and social concerns during the road construction activities. Accordingly,
the proposed Alternative Routes were presented and briefed for the consultation meeting
participants to discuss and select the preferred alternative for the road project construction.
The detailed objectives of stakeholder consultations were:

 Briefly discussed the road project and roles and responsibilities of the project
stakeholders
 Request the stakeholders to propose (if any) and select the best alternative route for
the road construction
 Identify their concerns to be addressed in project design works and considered during
project construction
 Identify protected natural resources, historical and cultural heritage sites, etc. along
the preferred alternative route, and precaution measures to be considered during the
project design and construction works
2.2 Stakeholder Consultation process

Consultations meeting were held with the following administration and community
representatives
1. Oromia Regional State , Road Authority officials

2. West Arsi Zone Administration & Community representatives
3. Gadab Assasa Administrations sector offices and Community representatives

April 2022
4. Munissa Administration sector offices and community representatives

5. Kore Woreda Administration sector offices and community representatives
6. Zonal sector office officials(two Zones west Arsi & Arsi zone)
7. Kofele Administration officials and community representatives
Issues of Discussion
 Description of the road
 The importance of the road
 Alternative routes for the road
 The role of institutions both in the construction and resettlement plans
The Kofele – Kore – Bekoji road project traverses through Kofele woreda, Kore woreda and
Gedeb Asasa woreda of West Arsi Zone and Munesa and Limuna Bilbilo woreda from arsi
zone
1. The importance of the road. The road is important to access to the public and has
tourism potential details are explained in the positive and negative impact of the road.
2. An alternative route of the road. This road has only one route in section one and three
alternatives in the second section. The purpose of the project is to upgrade the existing
road that plays important role for the socioeconomic development of the area. Well
discussed in the alternative section. As a result of all consultation meetings, the
participants are in favor of the improvement/ or upgrading of the existing route that
passes through their woredas with minor modifications. The main reason is that the road
has economic potential to access the existing inaccessible resources; like protected
forest for tourism, different types of cereals including cereal grain barley important for
brewed beer, for animal farm like sheep, and for public transportation accessibility to
large people residing in this area.
3. The role and responsibility of the stakeholders. At each meeting, the role and
responsibility of each institution were discussed. Accordingly, the active involvement of
all officials and communities in the surrounding area pivotal as it is discussed in all
meetings. In both four consultations meeting both with the kebele, woredas, and zone
administration officials and community representatives the importance of the road and
alternative routes are given high emphasis. The opinion and interest expressed by the
respective stakeholders and community representatives are highly important in the

April 2022
selection of the route with regards to area, the services the road provided to the
community, and so on. In the consultation made with the four respective stakeholders'
roads improving the existing road were given high priority to reduce displacement and at
the same time in terms of its importance to the local people.
Table 2-1:- Responsibilities of Stakeholders
1 Zonal Administration - Coordination of the whole road construction and resettlement issues,
Offices
2 Wereda Administration Identifications and selection of land for relocation of

Offices
PAPs, Provisions of the necessary support for the
Restoration of livelihoods. They are responsible for
Facilitation of RAP and giving special attention to the needy.
3 Wereda Agricultural - Preparation of cost estimation with other committee members for affected
Offices /desk crops, fruit trees, and other individually owned vegetation.
- Supporting PAPs in the restoration of their lively hoods.
4 Representatives of PAP Ensuring the well-being of PAPs and represent them in all meetings. They
are expected to have a strong role and work together with ERA's right-of-
way branch and other stakeholders
5 Community Leaders - Organizing PAPs for the implementation of RAP, awareness

creation, and working together with other stakeholders for the fairness of
selection of relocation sites and other related processes.
-Consultations for the fairness of valuation of properties, resettlement

costs, and provision of special attention for FHH, elders, disabled and
sick PAPs.
6 Urban Water Supply -Responsible for the restoration of affected water supplies and
Construction of new lines in areas where PAP relocated/ housed.
7 Telecommunication - Restoration of telephone lines and construction of new ones for PAPs.
And on the road project if available

April 2022
8 EEPC -Restoration and relocation of electric line and provisions of its services for
relocated PAPs. And along the road
Meeting with the ORA West Arsi Zone meeting
Kore Meeting Arsi zone Meeting
West arsi Zone meeting Munisa Woreda meeting

Figure 2-1: Consultations meeting

April 2022
3 TRAFFIC DATA AND ANALYSIS
3.1 Traffic Data
3.1.1 General
For effective planning and design of road projects, the knowledge of past, present and future
traffic movement on the proposed project road is essential. The volume and loading pattern
of the current and forecasted future traffic on any proposed road project constitutes the most
important factor in determining the feasibility of any planned road project, and in fixing design
standards and in estimating the construction and maintenance costs of road projects, as well.
Hence, estimate of current traffic and forecast of future traffic need to be carried out before
any planning and design work is undertaken.
The current traffic identified by the consultant team during the traffic survey period, it was low
business season cycle based on the ERA seasonal counts. Accordingly, the traffic count
considered both normal motorized and non-motorized traffic for this project road.
3.1.2 Traffic Count (TC)
A traffic count conducted on Kofele - Kore- Shire, Shire – Kersa(Bekoji ) and Shire – Qubsa
road project on the first week of June 2021, which represent one of the traffic count cycle of
ERA, [i.e. on Cycle three]. The traffic survey was conducted on the existing roads in the project
road corridor. The consultant sought it is better to see the project’s significance in terms of
creating connections towns such as Kofele - Kore- Shire, Shire – Kersa(Bekoji ) and Shire -
Qubsa has a great socio-economic as well as political importance. Meanwhile, the consultant
conducted a survey on both motorized and non-motorized traffic count on selected road
sections, from Kofele - Kore- Shire (TC-1), Shire – Kersa(Bekoji ) (TC-2) and Shire – Qubsa
(TC-3) on the existing roads are currently serving both traffics (motorized and non-motorized).
The counts were made for 12 hours, from 6:00 am to 6:00 pm, for seven days and night counts
were made for two days from 6:00 pm to 6:00 am, one of which is on a market day the other
on weekend.

April 2022
Figure 3-1: Traffic and OD Survey Location Map
3.1.3 Vehicle Classification

As an input for detailed engineering design purpose, vehicles were classified into passenger
and freight-based on the kind of service they rendered. That is, passenger vehicles were
classified into Car, Land Rover, Small Bus, Medium Bus and Large Bus while freight vehicles
include: Small Trucks, Medium Trucks, Heavy Trucks and Truck & Trailer base on their
respective capacity to carry load and in accordance with ERA’s Vehicle Classification System.

April 2022
Therefore, for the roadside [TC] surveys, nine vehicle categories listed below, were used and
the fleet classification system adopted was based on physical and operating characteristics
as shown below.
Table 3-1: Vehicle Classification
Vehicle Type Description

Car Small automobiles
Land Rover 4WD and utility vehicles
Small Bus Passenger cars up to 25 seats.
Medium Bus Passenger cars above 25 seats and below 45 seats
Large Bus Passenger cars above 45 seats.
Small Truck Light goods vehicles and delivery vans up to 3.5 tons load.
Medium Truck Goods vehicle with 3.5 – 7.5 tons load.
Heavy Truck Trucks above 7.5 tons load.
Truck and Trailer Trucks with trailer or semi-trailer and Tanker trailer.
Source: ERA and Consultant site observation
3.1.4 Estimation of Motorized Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

After traffic data is collected, detail data calculation and analysis are carried out to arrive at
the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) that will use the proposed road up on completion of
its construction. The following steps is followed to arrive at this traffic:
 Seven days day time traffic (from 6:00 am to 6:00 pm) count of each class of vehicle
is summed up,
 Two days night time traffic (from 6:00 pm to 6:00 am) count of each class of vehicle
is summed up,
 The sum of day time and night time traffic count of each class of vehicle are divided
by seven and two to get the average day time and night time traffic, respectively.
 The night factor is calculated by summing up the average day time and night time
traffic of the two days on which night traffic count was conducted, and then divided
the sum by average day time traffic of the same days.
 The average day time traffic is multiplied by the night factor to get the Average Daily
Traffic (ADT) for 24 hours.
 OD survey data is analysed and percent of traffic diversion calculated.
 Diverted traffic is computed from the OD survey and traffic volume of the adjacent
road
 Generated traffic at the opening year of the project is estimated.
 The ADT of the normal, diverted and generated traffic volumes summed to get a total
ADT
 The seasonal adjustment factor is computed from the past traffic counts conducted
at different seasons of the year. (Obtained from ERA seasonal traffic count data)
 The ADT is then multiplied by seasonal adjustment factor to arrive at the AADT.

April 2022
 Traffic growth rate is established

 The AADT is forecasted to the opening year of the project using the growth rate
 The AADT at the base year is then projected to each year of the design period to
estimate the AADT at each year in the design period.
 The standard of the road is then determined from the mid - year AADT of the design
period.
3.1.5 Total Number of Motorized Traffic Counted

The weekly traffic is summed up to get the total amount of traffic in the week Seven days. The
following tables show the sum of seven days’ traffic by vehicle category.
Table 3-2: Kofele - Kore- Shire

Kofele - Kore- Shire (7days count)
Day Date Cars LDV S/Bus M/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T Total
1 2021/06/03 0 20 47 36 3 44 2 1 0 153
2 2021/06/04 0 38 43 50 4 65 23 3 3 229
3 2021/06/05 0 11 4 32 2 48 13 2 2 114
4 2021/06/06 0 22 24 39 2 49 18 6 1 161
5 2021/06/07 0 25 12 15 2 32 18 4 2 110
6 2021/06/08 0 13 12 46 3 63 14 4 0 155
7 2021/06/09 0 21 28 17 2 41 10 2 2 123
Total 0 150 170 235 18 342 98 22 10 1045
Average 0 21 24 34 3 49 14 3 1 149
Source: consultant
Table 3-3: Shire -Kersa

( Shire -Kersa ) (7days count)
1 2021/06/03 0 14 24 7 1 24 0 1 0 73
2 2021/06/04 0 23 23 13 3 31 6 3 1 104
3 2021/06/05 0 8 16 7 0 19 2 1 1 54
4 2021/06/06 0 9 15 5 2 16 2 1 0 52
5 2021/06/07 0 15 13 4 1 12 6 0 0 53
6 2021/06/08 0 13 12 12 1 14 6 1 0 60
7 2021/06/09 0 16 16 11 2 16 3 1 3 68
Total 0 97 119 60 12 131 27 10 8 464
Average 0 14 17 9 2 19 4 1 1 66
Source: consultant

April 2022
Table 3-4: Shire – Qubsa

( Shire – Qubsa ) (7days count)
1 2021/06/03 0 6 10 3 1 10 0 1 0 31
2 2021/06/04 0 16 17 9 2 22 4 3 1 73
3 2021/06/05 0 5 10 5 0 13 1 1 1 37
4 2021/06/06 0 6 11 3 2 12 2 1 0 38
5 2021/06/07 0 10 9 3 1 7 5 0 0 35
6 2021/06/08 0 9 8 9 1 8 4 1 0 40
7 2021/06/09 0 11 11 7 1 10 3 1 2 46
Total 0 63 76 40 7 83 19 7 5 299
Average 0 9 11 6 1 12 3 1 1 43
Source: consultant
3.1.6 Night Time Motorized Traffic Count

Motorized Traffic Count was conducted for two days (12 hours) during night time at the
stations mentioned above. The volume of traffic obtained is then summed up to get the total
amount of traffic in the two days, and then divided by two to obtain the average daily night
time traffic. The tables below give the sum and average of the two days’ traffic by vehicle
category at the respective road sections.
Table 3-5: Night Time Traffic Count Surveys Kofele - Kore- Shire
Date Cars LDV S/Bus M/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T Total
04/06/21 0 7 11 6 2 27 14 3 2 72
06/06/21 0 3 5 3 0 16 5 0 0 32
Source: consultant
Table 3-6: Night Time Traffic Count Surveys Shire - Kersa
04/06/21 0 2 4 3 3 11 7 2 0 32
06/06/21 0 1 2 0 0 7 4 1 0 16
Source: consultant
Table 3-7: Night Time Traffic Count Surveys Shire- Qubsa
04/06/21 0 1 2 2 3 7 4 2 0 22
06/06/21 0 1 1 0 0 4 2 1 0 10
3.1.7 Night Factor

Night factor is computed by dividing the total 24-hour traffic by 12-hour day time traffic. On
this basis, the table below shows night factor developed for each type of vehicles for each
section.

April 2022
Table 3-8: Night Factor Estimation from Kofele - Kore- Shire

Determination of Average 24 hrs count (2 days)
Date Shift Cars LDV S/Bus M/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T Total
Day 0 38 43 50 4 65 23 3 3 229
6/4/2021
Night 0 7 11 6 2 27 14 3 2 72
Total 0 45 54 56 6 92 37 6 5 301
Day 0 22 24 39 2 49 18 6 1 161
6/6/2021
Night 0 3 5 3 0 16 5 0 0 32
Total 0 25 29 42 2 65 23 6 1 193
Average 24hrs count 0 35 42 49 4 79 30 6 3 247
Determination of Average Day Time count (2 days)
6/4/2021 Day 0 38 43 50 4 65 23 3 3 229
6/6/2021 Day 0 22 24 39 2 49 18 6 1 161
Average Day Time 0 30 34 45 3 57 21 5 1 195
Count
Determination of Night Factor
Cars LDV S/Bus M/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T Total
Average Day Time 0 30 34 45 3 57 21 5 1 194
Count (2 day)
Night Factor 1.0 1.17 1.24 1.10 1.33 1.38 1.46 1.33 3.00
Source: Consultant
Table 3-9:: Night Factor Estimation from Shire - Kersa

Day 0 23 23 13 3 31 6 3 1 104
6/4/2021
Night 0 2 4 3 3 11 7 2 0 32
Total 0 25 27 15 6 42 13 6 2 136
Day 0 9 15 5 2 16 2 1 0 52
6/6/2021
Night 0 1 2 0 0 7 4 1 0 16
Total 0 10 17 6 3 23 6 2 1 68
6/4/2021 Day 0 23 23 13 3 31 6 3 1 104
6/6/2021 Day 0 9 15 5 2 16 2 1 0 52
Average Day Time 0 16 19 9 3 24 4 2 1 78
Count
Average Day Time
Count (2 day) 0 16 19 9 3 24 4 2 1 78
Night Factor 1.0 1.11 1.15 1.17 1.74 1.36 2.16 1.83 1.43
Source: consultant

April 2022
Table 3-10: Night Factor Estimation from Shire - Qubsa

Day 0 16 17 9 2 22 4 3 1 73
6/4/2021
Night 0 1 2 2 3 7 4 2 0 22
Total 0 17 19 12 5 29 8 4 1 94
Day 0 6 11 3 2 12 2 1 0 38
6/6/2021
Night 0 1 1 0 0 4 2 1 0 10
Total 0 7 12 4 2 16 4 1 1 48
6/4/2021 Day 0 16 17 9 2 22 4 3 1 73
6/6/2021 Day 0 6 11 3 2 12 2 1 0 38
Average Day Time 0 11 14 6 2 17 3 2 1 55
Count
Average Day Time 0 11 14 6 2 17 3 2 1 55
Count (2 day)
Night Factor 1.0 1.09 1.11 1.21 1.94 1.33 2.10 1.73 1.41
Source: consultant
3.1.8 Motorized Average Daily Traffic

Using the NF above, the ADT was computed as a product of average day time traffic and night
factor.
Table 3-11: Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Kofele - Kore- Shire
Determination of Average Daily Traffic
Average Day Time 0 21 24 34 3 49 14 3 1 149
Traffic (7day)
Night Factor 1.00 1.17 1.24 1.10 1.33 1.38 1.46 1.33 3.00
(ADT)
Source: consultant
Table 3-12: Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Shire – Kersa

Average Day Time Traffic 0 14 17 9 2 19 4 1 1 66
(7day)
Night Factor 1.00 1.11 1.15 1.17 1.74 1.36 2.16 1.83 1.43
(ADT)
Source: consultant

April 2022
Table 3-13: Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Shire – Qubsa

Average Day Time Traffic 0 9 11 6 1 12 3 1 1 43
(7day)
Night Factor 1.00 1.09 1.11 1.21 1.94 1.33 2.10 1.73 1.41
Average Daily Traffic (ADT) 0 10 12 7 2 16 6 2 1 55
Source: consultant
3.1.9 Estimation of Non-Motorized Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

3.1.9.1 Day time Non-Motorized Traffic Count
Non-Motorized Traffic Count was also conducted for Seven days (12 hours) during day time
and two days 24hrs at the stations mentioned above. The volume of traffic obtained is then
summed up to get the total number of traffic in the week, and then divided by seven to obtain
the average daily day time traffic. Tables below gives the sum and average of seven days’
traffic by category at the respective road sections.
Table 3-14: Day Time Non-Motorized Traffic survey result Kofele - Kore- Shire
Pack Animal Motor cycle Animal

Date Pedestrian (Donkey/Horse/ and Bajaj Bicycle Cart Total
Mule /Camel)
2021/06/03 479 212 273 0 281 1245
2021/06/04 1245 652 709 0 629 3235
2021/06/05 1237 777 737 0 769 3520
2021/06/06 1431 989 1121 0 824 4365
2021/06/07 475 292 291 0 278 1336
2021/06/08 1427 1318 1036 0 1033 4814
2021/06/09 442 676 485 0 648 2251
Total 6736 4916 4652 0 4462 20766
Average 962 702 665 0 637 2967
Source: consultant
Table 3-15: Day Time Non-Motorized Traffic survey result Shire - Kersa
Pack Animal Motor cycle Animal
Date Pedestrian (Donkey/Horse/ and Bajaj Bicycle Cart Total
Mule /Camel)
2021/06/03 302 176 333 2 85 897
2021/06/04 312 193 446 0 172 1124
2021/06/05 760 387 502 0 304 1952
2021/06/06 395 218 340 0 144 1097
2021/06/07 319 181 396 0 165 1062
2021/06/08 845 648 1070 0 652 3214
2021/06/09 109 59 179 0 25 371
Total 3042 1862 3265 2 1546 9717
Average 435 266 466 0 221 1388
Source: consultant

April 2022
Table 3-16: Day Time Non-Motorized Traffic survey result Shire - Qubsa
Pack Animal
Date Pedestrian (Donkey/Horse/ Motor
and
cycle
Bajaj Bicycle Animal
Cart Total
Mule /Camel)
2021/06/03 130 75 143 1 36 385
2021/06/04 134 83 191 0 74 482
2021/06/05 326 166 215 0 130 837
2021/06/06 169 94 146 0 62 470
2021/06/07 137 78 170 0 71 455
2021/06/08 362 278 459 0 279 1378
2021/06/09 47 25 77 0 11 159
Total 1304 798 1399 1 663 4165
Average 186 114 200 0 95 595
Source: consultant
3.1.10 Night Time Non-Motorized Traffic Count

Non-Motorized Traffic Count was conducted for two days (12 hours) during night time at the
stations mentioned above. The volume of traffic obtained is then summed up to get the total
number of traffic in the two days, and then divided by two to obtain the average daily night
time traffic. The tables below give the sum and average of the two days’ traffic by NMT
category at the respective road sections.
Table 3-17: Night Time Non-motorized Traffic survey result Kofele - Kore- Shire
Night Date Pedestrian Pack Animal Motor cycle Bicycle Animal Total
(Donkey/Horse/ and Bajaj Cart
Mule /Camel)
2021/06/05 119 0 0 1 102 222
2021/06/09 149 0 0 11 167 327
Source: consultant
Table 3-18: Night Time Non-motorized Traffic survey result Shire – Kersa
Night Date Pedestrian Pack Animal Motor Bicycle Animal Cart Total
(Donkey/Horse/ cycle
Mule /Camel) and
Bajaj
2021/06/05 13 16 5 0 1 36
2021/06/09 13 6 0 0 0 19
Source: consultant

April 2022
Table 3-19: Night Time Non-motorized Traffic survey result Shire – Qubsa
Nigh Date Pedestria Pack Animal Motor Bicycle Animal Cart Tota
t n (Donkey/Horse cycle l
/ Mule /Camel) and
Bajaj
2021/06/0 4 2 4 1 2
5 14
2021/06/0
9 3 2 1 1 1 7
Source: consultant
3.1.11 Night Factor (NF)

Night factor is computed by dividing the total 24-hour traffic by 12-hour day time traffic. Tables
below give the Night Factor by NMT category at the respective road sections.
Table 3-20: Night Factor Determination for Kofele - Kore- Shire
Determination of Average 24 hrs. count

Pack Animal Motor
Date Shift Pedestrian (Donkey/Horse/ Mule cycle Bicycle Animal Total
and Cart
/Camel) Bajaj
Day 1245 652 709 0 629 3235
6/5/2021
Night 119 0 0 1 102 222
Total 1364 652 709 1 731 3457
Day 1431 989 1121 0 824 4365
6/9/2021
Night 149 0 0 11 167 327
Total 1580 989 1121 11 991 4692
Average 24 hrs. count 1472 821 915 6 861 4075
Determination of Average Day Time count
05/06/21 Day 1245 652 709 0 629 3235
09/06/21 Day 1431 989 1121 0 824 4365
Average Day Time
Count 1338 821 915 0 727 3800
Pack Animal
Pedestrian (Donkey/Horse/Mule/Camel Motor cycle Bicycle Animal
) and Bajaj Cart
Average 24 hrs. count 1472 821 915 6 861
Average Day Time Count 1338 821 915 0 727
Night Factor 1.10 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.19

April 2022
Table 3-21: Night Factor Determination for Shire - Kersa

Pack Animal Motor
Date Shift Pedestrian (Donkey/Horse/ Mule cycle and Bicycle Animal Total
/Camel) Bajaj Cart
Day 312 193 446 0 172 1124
6/5/2021
Night 13 16 5 0 1 36
Total 326 210 451 0 173 1160
Day 395 218 340 0 144 1097
6/9/2021
Night 13 6 0 0 0 19
Total 408 224 340 0 144 1116
05/06/21 Day 312 193 446 0 172 1124
09/06/21 Day 395 218 340 0 144 1097
Average Day Time
Count 354 206 393 0 158 1110
Pack Animal
Pedestrian (Donkey/Horse/Mule/Cam Motor cycle and Bicycle Animal
el) Bajaj Cart
Night Factor 1.04 1.05 1.01 1.00 1.00
Source: consultant
Table 3-22: Night Factor Determination for Shire – Qubsa

Pack Animal Motor Animal
Date Shift Pedestrian (Donkey/Horse/ Mule cycle Bicycle Total
/Camel) and Bajaj Cart
Day 134 83 191 0 74 482
6/5/2021
Night 4 2 4 1 2 14
Total 138 85 195 1 75 495
Day 169 94 146 0 62 470
6/9/2021
Night 3 2 1 1 1 7
Total 172 96 146 1 63 477
05/06/21 Day 134 83 191 0 74 482
09/06/21 Day 169 94 146 0 62 470
Average Day Time
Count 152 88 168 0 68 476

April 2022

Pack Animal Motor cycle and Animal
Pedestrian (Donkey/Horse/Mule/Ca Bajaj Bicycle Cart
mel)
Night Factor 1.02 1.03 1.01 1.00 1.02
Source: consultant
3.1.12 Non-Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

The ADT at each traffic count station can then be computed by multiplying the average day
time traffic by night factor as given in Table below. A table below summarizes the ADT at the
respective stations.
Table 3-23: Non-Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Kofele - Kore- Shire

Pedestrian Pack Animal Motor cycle Bicycle Animal
(Donkey/Horse/Mule and Bajaj Cart
/Camel)
Average Day time count (7day) 962 702 665 0 637
Night Factor 1.10 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.19
Average Daily Traffic (ADT) 1059 702 665 0 755
Source: Consultant
Table 3-24: Non-Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Shire – Kersa

/Camel)
Night Factor 1.04 1.05 1.01 0 1.00
Source: Consultant
Table 3-25: Non-Motorized Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Shire – Qubsa

/Camel)
Night Factor 1.02 1.03 1.01 0.00 1.02
Source: Consultant

April 2022
3.1.13 Modal Shift (from Non-Motorized to Motorized Traffic)

Once the construction of the proposed road is completed, most of the current non-motorized
traffic is expected to shift to motorized traffic. In another words, if there was a road along the
proposed route, most of the current non-motorized traffic would have existed in the form of
motorized traffic. Even though there is no motorized traffic which is using the proposed road
currently, it is essential to consider the current non-motorized traffic in the form of equivalent
motorized traffic for the purpose of design of road projects. The following assumptions have
been used to convert the non-motorized traffic to motorized traffic.
3.1.13.1 Assumptions for converting Non -Motorized Traffic to Motorized traffic
Freight Traffic
Pack animals and animal carts are commonly used in the project area to transport various
freight products to market centres. Most of this traffic will transfer to vehicular traffic once the
proposed road is opened to traffic. Considering the fact that the proposed road project is
upgrading project and the community in the project area had been using the gravel standard
road infrastructure, it is assumed that a portion of the current non-motorized mode of transport
will be diverted to motorized mode of transport as a result of the upgrading. It is therefore
assumed that 30% of the current non-motorized freight traffic may shift to motorized freight
traffic within one to two years of opening of the project road.
It is also assumed that a national average of 50 kg for a unit of animal-based freight transport
(ABFT) and 200kg for a unit of animal cart freight (ACFT) can be considered for the prediction
of the volume of motorized freight traffic.
Furthermore, even though the traffic composition of the adjacent road should be used for the
traffic composition of the mode diverted traffic on the proposed road, since the overall freight
load in the project area is small, it is assumed that small trucks will be the main means of
freight transport.
Passenger Traffic
Similarly, considering the facts mentioned above for freight transport, it is assumed that 30%
of the current non-motorized passenger movement (pedestrians, bicycles, motorcycles, etc.)
may shift to motorized traffic within one to two years of opening of the project road.

April 2022
In estimating number of passengers, the motorcycles are assumed to carry 1.5 passengers
per motorcycle, as some motorcycles are observed to carry 1 passenger and some carry 2
passengers. It is also assumed that since the project road is short in length, and the consultant
assumed about 30% small buses 12 seats and 70% medium buss with a capacity of 27 seats
will be the main means of passenger transport.
Table 3-26: Modal shifts are calculated as follows:
Freight
shifts to small busses

with carrying capacity of
Passenger (30% of ‘B’
shifts to medium busses

with carrying capacity of
(70% of ‘B’
multiplied by
30% of the NMT

Total NMT Count [A]
[B]=A*30%
its carrying
seats)
27AADT
NMT capacity [C]
Passenger
= B/its
seats)
carrying
12
capacity
Kofele Motor cycle 665 199 5 5 26
- Bicycle 0 0 0 0
Kore- Pedestrian 1059 318 8 8
Shire 169
Pack Animal 702 211 0 0 0
[B/0.8Q]
Animal Cart 755 227 907 [B/4Q) 0 0
Shire Motor cycle 470 141 4 4 14
– Pedestrian 451 135 3 4
Kersa Bicycle 0 0 0 0
Pack Animal 280 84 67 0 0 6
Animal Cart 17473 5242 20968 6 6
Shire - Motor cycle 203 61 2 2 6
Qubsa Bicycle 0 0 0 0
Pedestrian 191 57 1 1
Pack Animal 117 7011 5609 2 2 8
Animal Cart 96 5777 23108 7 7
Source: Consultant

April 2022
Using the above assumptions, the volume of motorized traffic has been computed as shown
in the following table.
Table 3-27: Modal shift Traffic

Kofele - Kore- Shire 0 0 13 13 0 1 0 0 0 27
Shire – Kersa 0 0 7 7 0 6 0 0 0 20
Shire - Qubsa 0 0 2 4 0 8 0 0 0 14
Source: Consultant
3.1.14 Summary of Normal Traffic

Normal Traffic is the current traffic on the road which mean a motorized traffic, which are
obtained by direct count on the project road. The following table gives the summary of the two
traffics (Motorised traffic).
Table 3-28: Summary of Normal Traffic – Kofele - Kore- Shire
SCF 1.03 1.18 1.15 0.96 0.78 1.06 1.11 1.22 1.17
AADT 0 30 34 36 3 72 23 5 5 207
Source: Consultant
Table 3-29: Summary of Normal Traffic Shire – Kersa
SCF 1.03 1.18 1.15 0.96 0.78 1.06 1.11 1.22 1.17
AADT 0 18 22 10 2 27 9 3 2 94
Source: Consultant
Table 3-30: Summary of Normal Traffic Shire – Qubsa
SCF 1.03 1.18 1.15 0.96 0.78 1.06 1.11 1.22 1.17
AADT 0 12 14 7 2 17 6 2 1 60
Source: Consultant
3.1.15 Seasonal Conversion Factor

The ADT shown in Table 3-19&20 computed from the traffic counting survey conducted by the
consultant represent the traffic movement on project road during the time of traffic count, which is
for the low business season in Ethiopia. However, the ADT does not show the traffic movement on
the project road throughout the year. This is because traffic movement on all roads fluctuates with
business cycles in Ethiopia. Business cycles in Ethiopia are classified as high, medium and low
business seasons. Since the ADT from the survey reflected traffic flow on the road in the low
season, it should be adjusted using seasonal conversion factor to take into account relatively
medium traffic flows in the medium and high business season, respectively. Thus the Consultant
developed seasonal conversion factor (SCF) using the three-cycle traffic data obtained from the
Ethiopian Roads Administration (ERA) which reflects the missing seasons business cycles which

April 2022
is the average of the medium and high seasons to adjust the ADT. Table below shows the three
cycle traffic data Kofele- Dodola road starting from 2014 to 2020 by vehicle class.
Table 3-31: Seasonal Conversion Factor
KOFFELE-DODOLA
2014 Cars LDV S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T Total
Cycle 1 19 75 440 20 107 319 219 145 1344
Cycle 2 2 149 219 77 182 209 130 79 1047
Cycle 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AADT 2013 7 75 220 32 96 176 116 75 797
Cycle 1 29 170 539 9 262 135 112 21 1277
Cycle 2 23 64 107 45 61 66 78 43 487
Cycle 3 19 43 235 16 48 55 29 5 450
AADT 2014 24 92 294 183 214 145 73 23 1048
Cycle 1 37 59 101 38 70 81 75 61 522
Cycle 2 37 59 101 38 70 81 75 61 522
Cycle 3 37 59 101 38 70 81 75 61 522
AADT 2015 37 59 101 38 70 81 75 61 522
Cycle 1 34 53 78 28 59 67 69 55 443
Cycle 2 46 68 94 28 78 83 87 64 548
Cycle 3 41 64 96 53 59 69 62 51 495
AADT 2016 40 62 89 36 65 73 73 57 495
Cycle 1 17 46 101 65 60 64 66 60 479
Cycle 2 27 46 140 36 60 70 59 50 488
Cycle 3 37 45 179 7 60 76 52 39 495
AADT 2017 27 46 140 36 60 70 59 50 487
Cycle 1 59 212 437 170 259 395 378 196 2106
Cycle 2 26 43 269 51 77 110 69 39 684
Cycle 3 42 74 121 32 74 82 76 72 573
AADT 2018 42 110 276 84 137 196 174 102 1121
Cycle 1 30 72 327 60 109 149 94 56 897
Cycle 2 36 61 722 45 78 227 98 58 1325
Cycle 3 17 29 407 22 47 180 68 49 819
AADT 2020 28 54 485 42 78 185 87 54 1014
AADT Average Cycle-1 32 98 289 56 132 173 145 85 1010
AADT 29 71 229 65 103 132 94 60 783
SCF = Av. AADT/Av.
Cycle 1&2 traffic2 1.03 1.18 1.15 0.78 1.06 1.11 1.22 1.17
Source: ERA’s cyclic data
2 Average Seasonal Conversion Factor

April 2022
3.1.16 Generated Traffic

3.1.16.1 Normal Generated Traffic
Once the project road is realized, it is assumed that the traffic to be generated is triggered by
decrease in transport cost subsequent to the improvement in the condition of the road. The
improvement which involves improvement in geometric and pavement feature of the road, are
expected to result in increased demand for transportation, and hence more vehicles will be
induced to the project road.
The existing road along the project route is in very poor condition. Considering the current
situation, the construction of the project road is expected to stimulate generation of trips in
vehicular transport which will enhance access to markets and various service centres in the
vicinity of the project.
The recommended approach to forecasting generated traffic is to use demand relationships

which show how traffic increases as the cost of a journey decreases. Studies carried out in
similar countries give an average for the price elasticity of demand for transport of about -1.0.
This means that a one per cent decrease in transport costs leads to a one per cent increase
in traffic. This is extra traffic over and above the increase in normal traffic.
However, Handy and Boarnet (2014) performed a critical evaluation of various induced travel
studies and found that short-run elasticity effect of road development generally range from 0.3
to 0.6. (Generated Traffic and Induced Travel Implication for Transport Planning, 2015).
The estimation of generated traffic is based on estimating the shape of the demand function,
which is expressed as an elasticity of demand. It shows the responsiveness of demand to a
change in cost, which in turn is a response of change in the travel time. In the case of
generated traffic, the demand for transport is related to expected reductions in journey costs
and travel time. For this analysis, savings in travel time is used to determine the percent of
generated traffic based on travel time with and without the project using the formula: seasonal
factor
Generated Traffic Factor = β [(Cijp / Cijb) – 1]
Where:
β is the elasticity;
Cijp is the with-project travel cost;
Cijb is the base case, without project travel cost;

April 2022
Table 3-32: Travel time to estimate Generated Traffic Factor

Section of the road Without Project With Project
Length Speed Travel Time Length Speed Travel Time
Kofele - Kore - Bekoji (km) (km/hr.) (min) (km) (km/hr.) (min)
69.3 40 103.95 69.3 60 69
Source; Consultant
Table 3-33: Estimate of Generated Traffic Factors from the travel time Kofela-Shire Bekoji
With Project (Upgrading of existing Road to

Parameter Paved Road)
Project Road Name
Low Medium High
β (elasticity) -0.3 -0.45 -0.6
Cijp (time in minutes) 69 69 69
Kofele - Kore - Bekoji Cijb (time in minutes) 103.95 103.95 103.95
Generated Traffic Factor 0.10 0.15 0.20
Source; Consultant
The above shows that the generated traffic factor for Kofele - Kore - Bekoji is 0.10 for low
scenario, 0.15 for medium scenario and 0.20 for high scenario.
Traffic generation also depends on the economic activity in the area, and the level of
development and the status of the living condition of the people in the area. If the economic
activity is low, and the development and living condition of the people in the area is in low
level, the demand for transportation will be less. Considering the current development level of
the project area, it is envisaged that the level of traffic generation falls in the medium to high
scenario. Hence, it is assumed that 15% of normal traffic volume will generate within one to
two years of the opening of the project for Kofele - Kore - Bekoji and 15% of normal traffic
volume will generate within one to two years of the opening of the project for Kofele - Kore-
Shire -Bekoji.
Table 3-34: Potential Generated Traffic for Project Road Koffela-Shire

Vehicle Type Car 4WD S/Bus M/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T Total
AADT TC1 0 30 34 36 3 72 23 5 5 207
Generated traffic 15% 0 4 5 5 0 11 3 1 1 31
Source: Consultant
3.1.16.2 Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) of the Project Road at 2021
The volume of traffic on the project road at the time of the traffic survey (2021) is therefore the
sum of the normal traffic on the road obtained by physical counting (motorized and non-
motorized), the diverted traffic that can shift from the adjacent roads to the new road and the

April 2022
generated traffic as a result of the new road. The following table gives the ADT on the project
road at the year 2021.
Table 3-35: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) of the Project Road at 2021 Kofele - Kore- Shire
NT + Ms + DT + GT
Normal Traffic 0 30 34 36 3 72 23 5 5 207
Modal Shift 0 0 13 13 0 1 0 0 0 27
Generated Traffic 0 4 5 5 0 10 3 1 1 29
ADT(NT+DT+GT) 0 34 47 60 3 82 26 6 6 265
Source; Consultant
Table 3-36: Annual Average Daily Traffic (ADT) of the Project Road at 2021 Shire – Kersa
NT + Ms + DT + GT
Normal Traffic 0 18 22 10 2 27 9 3 2 94
Modal Shift 0 0 7 7 0 6 0 0 0 20
ADT(NT+DT+GT) 0 21 32 18 2 37 10 3 2 125
Source; Consultant
Table 3-37: Annual Average Daily Traffic (ADT) of the Project Road at 2021 Shire – Qubsa
NT + Ms + DT + GT
Normal Traffic 0 13 16 8 2 19 7 2 1 69
Modal Shift 0 0 2 4 0 8 0 0 0 14
ADT(NT+DT+GT) 0 15 20 13 2 30 8 2 1 91
Source; Consultant
3.2 Traffic Growth and Forecast
3.2.1 General
A general traffic forecasting approach is considered to be reasonable as compared to a road-specific
projection, for a road with a strategic rather than specific function such as the project road. In general,
transport demand (and hence traffic) is a derived demand driven by growth in population, economy
and personal income. Forecasts of these factors are therefore required to make accurate traffic
forecast. Traffic growth can also be related to the growth in fuel consumption and vehicle fleet; trends
are therefore developed for these parameters.
Moreover, estimates of income elasticity, relating to traffic growth directly to forecast changes in
national income, are often applied in making forecasts; this approach will also be adopted for this
specific project.

April 2022
3.2.1.1 Macro-Economic Performance and Prospect

According to the IMF with source from CSA, the GDP growth rate of Ethiopia in 2020 is 7.1%.
It was known that the Ethiopia economy used to grow with two digits, according to EEA in the
20183, data witnesses that the average GDP growth rate was 10.4 percent during the 2010/11-
2014/15 period, and the GTP II reported the growth rate during 2015/16 was 8.9 and 10.9
percent during the GTP II period of 2016/17.
3.2.1.2 Population Growth as a Determinant of Per Capita Income

The fact that a country has large total output of goods and services tells us very little about
the condition of the inhabitants unless we know how many people there are to share this
output. In the history of Ethiopia, census has been carried out three times in 1984, 1994 and
in 2007. According to the CSA4 2018, the total population of Ethiopia was estimated at 40.1
million in 1984 and at 53.5 million in 1994. The total number of people enumerated in the third
Population and Housing Census was about 73.9 million. Based on the Summary and
Statistical Report of the 2007 Population and Housing Census Results, population of the
country was estimated to be 114 million as of July, 2017 with population density of 124. Out
of the estimated total, 47.36 Million (50.2 percent) were male and 46.99 million (49.8 per cent)
were female. While 79.77 percent of the total population in the country was found in the rural
areas, the remaining 20.23 percent lived in urban areas. Currently according to UN5 data
report the Ethiopia population in 2020 is estimated at 114,963,588 people at midyear. Ethiopia
population is equivalent to 1.47% of the total world population.
3.2.1.3 Transport Demand Elasticity with respect to GDP

Empirical evidences have established that demand for transport tends to expand at somewhat
faster rate than the economic growth rate as measured by national and/or regional GDPs. As
the economy grows and reaches stability, the rate of growth for transport declines. This
relationship is commonly referred to as income elasticity of demand for transport, measuring
3 The Ethiopian Economic Association 2018 Annual report on the Ethiopian Economy.
4 Central Statistical Agency (CSA) of Ethiopia (2018) A, Summary and Statistical Report of the 2007 Population
and Housing Census Results, 2008.
5 https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ethiopia-population.

April 2022
the relative change in travel/transport demand due to change in income, overtime. Income
elasticity is a measure of responsiveness of travel demand; generally, a given rise in per capita
income can be expected to result in a more than proportionate increase in demand for travel,
since travel demand is usually found to be income elastic. In addition, income elasticity tends
to decrease overtime as the economy and/or personal income grows.
In Ethiopia, detailed empirical evidence providing reasonable estimates of income elasticity of

demand for transport has not yet been established and/or made available. Some general
forms of estimates, which may be taken as indicative, are however suggested by few studies.
The Network Analysis Study (2003) provides an estimate of income elasticity of demand for
transport for different vehicles categories. Based on the findings of the study, estimates of
income elasticity have been derived (with upwards adjustments) for the project under
consideration to estimate traffic growth rates. Generally, elasticity of demand for transport with
respect to economic growth is assumed initially to reflect recent trends, but to decline over
time.
Table 3-38: Income Elasticity of Demand for Transport
Income Elasticity
Vehicle type
2018-2027 2028-2061
Passenger Transport
Passenger cars/4WD 1.3 1.2
Small Buses 1.2 1.2
Large Buses 1.1 1.1
Passenger Transport total 1.20 1.17
Freight Transport
Small Trucks 1.2 1.1
Medium Trucks 1.2 1.1
Heavy Trucks 1.3 1.2
Articulated/truck & trailer 1.4 1.3
Freight Transport total 1.28 1.18
Source: Network Analysis Study (2003)
The responsiveness of transport demand is measured by transport demand elasticity.

Demand is a function of income. Hence, there is some correlation between vehicle - kilometer,
GDP and GDP per capita income. The above table shows the trend of GDP, GDP per Capita,
and Vehicle - Kilometre between 2004 and 2017. Based on this data, the consultant has

April 2022
estimated the correlation of income and transport demand; and the transport demand
elasticity, accordingly.
3.2.1.4 Ethiopian Macro-Economic Indicators of PIA

In regards to past development, during the last decade (2003/4-2014/5), the Ethiopian GDP
grew registering average growth rate of 10.8 percent. Furthermore, according to the IMF
(World Economic Outlook, Oct 2017), in its “Seeking Sustainable Growth” with the impression
of “Short–Term Recovery, Long–Term Challenge” assessment of past performance; (1999-
2016) - 9 percent Real GDP Growth Rate and 7.8 percent forecasted GDP Growth Rate
(2017-2022) for Ethiopia, as detailed for development groups and each country in its statistical
appendix.
Official reports indicate that, average road network growth of 8.2 percent for the year 1997-
2016 and traffic growth rate along main roads in the country for the same period, on average,
was 9.2 percent (ERA, RSDP 19 years Performance Assessment, Oct 2016). As road
transport is the main mode of transport in the country, there has been a continuous increase
in the vehicular population. Fuel import trends of Ethiopia during the 2010-2015 period grew
on average by 17.6 percent. Traffic growth rate is closely related to socio-economic
development indicators in the country and in the project area. Hence, Table below presents
GDP and transport performance and plan growth rates. This growth rates provide the basis
for the project traffic forecast.
Table 3-39: Selected Performance and Forecasted Growth Rates of Ethiopia
Economic Indicators by Performance/Forecast Type Period Average Growth

Performance Indicators (%)
National GDP Performance-GTP 1+PASDEP 2004-2015 10.8
National GDP Performance-GTP 1-MoFED 2011-2015 10.1
National GDP Performance-GTP 1-IMF 2011-2015 10.1
National GDP Performance-IMF 1999-2008 8.1
National GDP Performance-GTP 1-IMF 2009-2016 9.9
Average Road Network Growth 1997-2016 8.2
Traffic Trend over the Period of the RSDP 1997-2016 9.2
Fuel Import 2010-2015 17.6
Population Growth Rate-Ethiopia 1994-2017 2.6
Forecast Indicators
National GDP Forecast-GTP II-National Planning Commission 2015-2020 11
IMF GDP forecast for Ethiopia 2017-2018 8.5

April 2022
Economic Indicators by Performance/Forecast Type Period Average Growth

IMF GDP forecast for Ethiopia 2019-2022 7.5
(%)
Expected National GDP Growth (% pa)
Period Low Medium High
2021 - 2025 7.1 8.1 9.1
2026 - 2035 6.6 7.6 8.6
Source: MoFED and other agencies
The above economic performance and forecast growth rates of the country, gives clue as to
which transport growth rate to adopt in the country and the project area. Growth Trends of
GDP (10.1 percent) derived for past years seems high to use for the future 20 years as
compared to IMF’s forecasted 8.5 percent for 2017-2018 and 7.5 percent for the coming 2019-
2022 years, for the country. So, the consultant has adopted the expected national GDP growth
7.1, 8.1, and 9.1 percent as low, medium and high GDP growth scenarios, respectively for the
project under study.
3.2.1.5 Transportation Demand Elasticity Relative to GDP
Demand for transport depends upon growth in income measured by the GDP. The elasticity
of transportation demand relative to GDP has been estimated with respect to vehicle fleet
growth estimates considered as proxies for the potential transportation demand. Income
elasticity of demand as the change in volume of trips in response to change in income,
overtime empirically demonstrated that, elasticity coefficients tend to vary by type of transport
demand. Studies like (TRL, 1993) reveal transport income elasticity varies between 1 and 2.
For the country, average traffic growth in response to change in GDP growth rate for the last
five year (2017-2020) shows transport income elasticity of 1.7 - 4.7. Due to high growth rate
of vehicle population for the last five years (in fact low vehicle population and erratic growth
rate before five year), this figure is high in comparison to international and sub-Saharan
African practice. So, the following income elasticity of transport demand (Table below) for this
study has been established after adjustment considering international experiences and recent
feasibility studies in the country.

April 2022
Table 3-40: Consultant’s Estimate for Elasticity of Demand
Predicted Elasticity Exhibited ElasticityConsultant's Estimate of Elasticity of

based on the Network based on Previous 10vehicles to GDP Growth based on
Vehicle Type
Analysis Study years data historical & predicted values
2018-2027 2028-2039 1999-2013 2025 - 2031 2032 - 2044
Car 1.3 1.2 1.36 1.33 1.28
Utility 1.3 1.2 1.36 1.33 1.28
Small Bus 1.2 1.2 1.36 1.28 1.28
Large Bus 1.1 1.1 1.36 1.23 1.23
Small Truck 1.2 1.1 1.23 1.22 1.17
Medium Truck 1.2 1.1 1.23 1.22 1.17
Heavy Truck 1.3 1.2 1.23 1.27 1.22
Articulated/T&T 1.4 1.3 1.10 1.25 1.20
Source: Consultant
3.2.1.6 Traffic Growth Rate

Based on the computed elasticity by the Consultant and ERA’s Network Analysis Study
(2003), the Consultant adopted the following elasticity to determine the traffic growth rate for
the subject project.
In specifying traffic growth rates for the projection of stream of freight traffic using the road in
the future, a simple model has been used that expresses the effect of GDP growth on travel
demand for freight vehicles. On the other hand, forecast growth rates for passenger traffic
were computed using a model that combines the effect on travel demand of population growth
and of changes in per capita incomes.
Two models of the following forms were, therefore, applied:

ΔT = e (ΔGDP)
Where:
ΔT = the change in freight transport
ΔGDP = the change in GDP
e = the income elasticity for freight travel demand

April 2022
and;
ΔT = ΔP + e (ΔC)
Where:
ΔT = the change in passenger transport
ΔP = the change in population
ΔC = the change in per capita income
e = the income elasticity for passenger travel demand.
Based on the model relationship specified above, estimate of traffic growth rates for
passenger and freight vehicles category (for three scenarios) are presented in tables below
corresponding to the forecast traffic growth periods.
Table 3-41: Average Annual Traffic Growth-Low Scenario

Elasticity Average Annual Traffic
Pop. PKY Growth (%)
Year GDP
Growth Growt Growth
Cars
(%) h (%) (%) Cars and Bus Truck TT and Bus Truck TT
utility
utility
2025-
2032 7.1 2.4 4.5 1.33 1.26 1.23 1.25 8.39 8.06 8.76 8.86
2033 - 6.6 2.4 4 1.28 1.26 1.18 1.2 7.53 7.43 7.81 7.91
2039
Source: Consultant
Table 3-42: Average Annual Traffic Growth-Medium Scenario
Elasticity Average Annual Traffic

Pop. PKY Growth
GDP Growth Growt
Year Growth Cars Cars
(%) (%) h (%)
and Bus Truck TT and Bus Truck TT
utility utility
2025- 8.1 2.4 5.5 1.33 1.26 1.23 1.25 9.72 9.31 9.99 10.11
2032
2033 - 7.6 2.4 5 1.28 1.26 1.18 1.2 8.81 8.68 8.99 9.1
2039
Source: Consultant

April 2022
Table 3-43: Average Annual Traffic Growth-High Scenario
Elasticity Average Annual Traffic Growth

Pop. PKY (%)
GDP Growth Growth
Year Growt (%) (%) Cars Cars
h (%) and Bus Truc TT and Bus Truc TT
utility k utility k
2025- 9.1 2.4 6.5 1.33 1.26 1.23 1.2 11.06 10.57 11.22 11.36
2032 5
2033 - 8.6 2.4 6 1.28 1.26 1.18 1.2 10.09 9.94 10.17 10.3
2039
Source: Consultant
The consultant has estimated three different traffic growth scenarios; low, Medium, and high,
which are depicted in the above tables. For this specific road project, the consultant
considered the medium scenario of traffic growth rate.
3.2.1.7 The Planning Horizon
Evaluation of the road project investment program requires specification of ranges of
forecast parameters including traffic growth rate and economic analyses period (i.e.
schedule of years over which the stream of costs/benefits are spread, depending on the
design life).
Following completion of construction works over a period of three years, the project-life of
the project will be about 15 years the road will function as main access road. The road
project construction is expected to start by the beginning of 2022 and will be accomplished
at the end of 2024. The project, plausibly, will be opened for traffic by the beginning of 2025.
As the service year (design life) of the project is 15 years, since the road functions as main
access road and the traffic demand is projected to the year 2039. See table below for detail.
3.2.1.8 Traffic Forecast

Base year Traffic (at 2025) – AADT
Base year traffic is the traffic that will use the project road at the first year of the opening of
the road to traffic. It includes normal, modal shift and generated traffics. It is obtained by
forecasting the above-mentioned traffic to the base year by using the growth rate established
above. The following gives the base year traffic at 2025
Table 3-44: Base year Traffic (at 2025) – AAD from Kofele - Kore- Shire
Car 4WD S/Bus M/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T Total
AADT0 2021 0 34 47 60 3 120 26 6 6 265
Growth rate 9.72 9.72 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.99 9.99 9.99 10.11
AADT@ 2025 0 48 67 82 4 120 38 9 8 377
Source: Consultant

April 2022
Table 3-45: Base year Traffic (at 2025) – AADT from Shire – Kersa
AADT0 2021 0 21 32 18 2 37 10 3 2 125
Growth rate 9.72 9.72 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.99 9.99 9.99 10.11
AADT@ 2025 0 30 46 25 4 55 16 5 3 183
Source: Consultant
Table 3-46: Base year Traffic (at 2025) – AADT from Shire – Qubsa
AADT0 2021 0 15 20 13 2 30 8 2 1 91
Growth rate 9.72 9.72 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.99 9.99 9.99 10.11
AADT@ 2025 0 21 37 38 3 32 12 4 2 148
Source: Consultant
3.2.1.9 Traffic forecast in the Design Period

Traffic projection has been made for 15 consecutive years of the design period from the
opening of the road to traffic by applying the growth rates estimated above. The following
gives the forecasted traffic for each years of the design period of the project. The projection
is made for normal, diverted and generated traffic.
Table 3-47: Traffic forecast for Kofela-Shire
2025 0 48 67 82 4 120 38 9 8 377
2026 0 52 73 88 5 133 42 10 9 412
2027 0 57 80 95 5 146 46 10 10 450
2028 0 62 87 103 5 160 51 11 11 492
2029 0 67 94 111 6 175 56 13 12 533
2030 0 73 102 120 6 191 61 14 13 579
2031 0 78 110 129 7 208 66 15 15 628
2032 0 85 119 140 7 226 72 16 16 681
2033 0 91 129 151 8 247 78 18 17 739
2034 0 99 140 163 8 269 85 19 19 802
2035 0 107 151 176 9 293 93 21 21 870
2036 0 115 163 190 10 320 102 23 22 944
2037 0 124 176 205 11 348 111 25 24 1024
2038 0 134 190 222 11 380 121 27 27 1111
2039 0 145 205 239 12 414 132 30 29 1206
Source: Consultant

April 2022
Table 3-48: Traffic forecast for Shire – Kersa

2025 0 30 46 25 4 55 16 5 3 183
2026 0 32 50 27 4 60 17 6 4 200
2027 0 35 55 29 4 66 19 6 4 218
2028 0 38 60 31 5 73 21 7 4 239
2029 0 42 65 34 5 80 23 8 5 260
2030 0 45 71 37 5 88 25 9 5 284
2031 0 49 77 39 6 96 27 9 6 311
2032 0 54 83 43 6 106 30 10 6 339
2033 0 58 90 46 7 116 33 11 7 368
2034 0 63 98 50 7 126 36 12 8 399
2035 0 68 105 54 8 137 39 13 8 432
2036 0 73 114 58 8 150 42 14 9 469
2037 0 79 123 63 9 163 46 16 10 509
2038 0 85 133 68 10 178 50 17 11 552
2039 0 92 143 73 11 194 55 19 12 598
Source; Consultant
Table 3-49: Traffic forecast for Shire- Qubsa

2025 0 21 37 38 3 32 12 4 2 148
2026 0 23 40 41 3 35 13 4 2 162
2027 0 25 44 44 3 39 14 5 3 176
2028 0 27 47 47 3 43 16 5 3 192
2029 0 30 51 51 4 46 17 6 3 208
2030 0 32 56 55 4 51 19 6 4 226
2031 0 35 60 60 4 55 21 7 4 245
2032 0 37 65 64 5 60 22 7 4 266
2033 0 40 71 69 5 65 24 8 5 288
2034 0 44 76 75 5 71 27 9 5 312
2035 0 47 83 81 6 78 29 9 5 338
2036 0 51 89 87 6 85 32 10 6 367
2037 0 55 96 94 7 92 35 11 6 397
2038 0 59 104 102 7 101 38 12 7 430
2039 0 64 112 110 8 110 41 13 8 466
Source; Consultant

April 2022
3.2.1.10 Design Standard

respect to mid-year traffic volume. As it is stipulated in below in the table 2-50 Kofele - Kore-
Shire has 681 AADT, Shire – Kersa 339 and Shre – Qubsa has 266 AADT. In hindsight the
consultant adopted the highest traffic volume [AADT 681] of the road corridor as design traffic
volume for the proposed road project.
Table 3-50: Design Standard for sections of the Project Road

Section Mid-Year(2032) AADT Design Standard Remark
Source: Consultant

April 2022
4 ROUTE SELECTION
The purpose of this Route Selection Section is to present the Employer ( ERA) with possible
alternate routes for the project road, together with an evaluation of each in technical,
economic, environmental and social and strategic terms in accordance with the Term of
Reference.
4.1 Identification of Alternatives Route

The following factors has been consider during the route identification
 Project Control Points
 Stakeholder Consultation
 Existing road network
 potential Towns and Villages
 ERA under Construction road Project (Arsi Negele - Kersa - Bilalo Junction)
 ERA under Design road Project (Gobesa – Bekoji - Kersa)
Based on the above factors three potential and comparable routes has been proposed for
route selection assessment and evaluation
Table 4-1: Alternative Routes

Section Route Options. Description of the Option Length (Km)
Section-A Alternative - 1 29.8

Kofele – Kore - Shire
Section-B Alternative - 1 29.7
Shire - Qubsa
Alternative - 2 39.2
Shire – Sunegoro – Shunewacho - Koji katara
Alternative - 3 37.86
Shire - Lakicha - Gujicha - Kersa

April 2022
4.2 Characteristics Of The Identified Routes
Key features of each alternative route have been summarized in the following table.
Table 4-2: Key Features
Section Section A Section B

Key Features Alternative A1 Alternative B1 Alternative B2 Alternative B3
Length (Km) 29.8 29.7 39.2 37.86
Starting Point Kofele Shire Shire Shire
Qubsa(Bekoji
Ending Point Shire Koji Katara Kersa
Junction)
Kofele,
Shire,
Gofengra,
Shire, Mejja Yadele, Tsogeta Beseko,
Goremechu, Shire, Witago Sire,
Tsogeta Beseko, Waji Adareawanidela,
Gofanegra, Tijo Kerensa,
Town/village Asharige, Shunegoro,
Chocha, Dabara Bubura, Hebenidiba,
Shunewachu, Koji
Kore, and Qubsa Gujicha,
Katara,
Bole Helenesa,
And Kersa
And Shire
Flat 0.00% 24.7% 6.9% 0.0%
Terrain
Rolling 80.60% 69.3% 53.9% 71.1%
Type (%)
Along the Mountainous 19.40% 6.1% 39.2% 28.9%
Route
Escarpment 0.00% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Existing Designed
29.8 29.7 20.76 37.86
Road(Km)
New Road (Km) 0 18.44 29.36
Number of Bridges 5 3 6
Number of Slab/Box
7 8 14
Culverts
Number of Pipe Culverts 39 40 47

April 2022
Figure 4-1: Alternative routes in Shire Bekoji Section

April 2022
4.3 Multi Criteria Analysis Of The Alternative Routes

Multi - criteria analysis was carried out based on ERA's Route Selection Manual-2013 and selected
the most viable route. The criteria used in comparing the routes are Engineering, Social,
Environmental, Economic and Administrative aspects.
4.3.1 Engineering Assessment

Based on the ERA`s Route Selection Manual-2013, there are sub-parameters designated for
engineering assessment parameters for each route. Accordingly, the Consultant has analysed the
alternative routes in light of the designated parameters and put forwarded his assessment as
summarized herein under Table 4.3.

April 2022
Table 4-3: Scores for Engineering Assessment Section B

section II
Secondary
Weight tertiary Criteria Sub
Criteria Alt 1 Score Alt 2 Score Alt 3 Score
Weigh
Road length 6 Road Length(km)* 6 29.7 6.00 39.2 4.55 37.86 4.71
Flat Terrain(%) 4 25% 0.99 7% 0.28 0% 0.00
Rolling Terrain(%) 2.66 69% 1.84 54% 1.43 71% 1.89

Topography 4
Mountain Terrain(%) 1.32 6% 0.08 39% 0.52 29% 0.38
Escarpment Terrain(%) 0 0% 0.00 0% 0.00 0% 0.00
Total Earthwork Cost

Earthwork 4 4 168.11 4.00 357.41 1.88 410.46 1.64
(Birr*106)
Drainage
Culverts and bridges
and 4 4 100.16 3.44 86.17 4.00 108.61 3.17
cost (Birr*106)
structure
Presence of Geo
Geo Hazard 6 6 I 5 I 5 I 5
Hazard(%)(F/I/M)
Availability of natural
Materials 3 construction materials 3 M 2 G 3 G 3
(**G/M/P)(%)
pavement Total pavement cost(Birr

3 3 183.88 3.00 230.77 2.39 287.12 1.92
cost x 106)
cost 5 Total Cost (Birr x 106) 5 662.88 5.00 949.46 3.49 1,115.08 2.97
Sub-total 35 31.35 26.54 24.68

April 2022
4.3.2 Environmental Assessment

Based on ERA Route Selection Manual-2013, there are sub-parameters to be duly considered in
the assessment of environmental impact of the alternative routes. As such with all the remarks
indicated for the preferred route alignment, relevant environmental indicators selected by the
Consultant for the evaluation of the possible impact of the routes on environments are:
 Possible synergies and conflicts between the road project and the valued environmental
components in the area
 Extent of flooding and soil erosion hazards, sites prone to land slide and collapse
 Area of virgin land to be occupied,
 Flora and fauna resources to be affected
 Possibility of construction period safety hazards due to the ragged topography of the area
and extent of workers’ exposure to risks
 Natural and manmade Heritages preservation and protection
 Resettlement requirement;
From desk studies, site observation conducted and comments from public consultations as well as
subsequent analysis, most of the expected impacts are local in their level of impacts, short term in
their duration, reversible with proper mitigation measures and are non-cumulative. The impact
significance indicated in table below is used to calculate the aggregate ECA risk number and
corresponding MCA scores for each alternative route.

April 2022
Table 4-4: Levels of Environmental Risk with Corresponding ECA Value for each alternative.
Alternative Routes of Kofele-Kore-

ECA Remarks
Shire-Bekoji
Type
Alt1 Alt2 Alt3
The occurrence of impact is unlikely in alternative one and

since there is no such resources along this alternative.
However, in Alt 2 there is a wildlife reserve in some segment
ECA I None Moderate High of the alternative and in Alt 3 there is wildlife reserve & KBA
(Key Biodiversity Area Munesa-Shashemene Forest, which
is a national forest priority area) Protected forest area in
around 13 km of its segment.
The impacts on recharging of aquifer are expected to be

ECA II Moderate Moderate Moderate
moderate and similar for all alternatives.
Significance of impacts on prime farm land is generally

ECA III Very High Moderate Minimum moderate for Alt 2 and minimum for Alt 3, and very high for
Alt 1.
In relative terms, the impact of the proposed alternatives on

scenic value of the area is likely to be high for Alt3 due to a
ECA IV Moderate Moderate High good vegetation cover in most traverse of the route and the
setting of vegetated mountain, farmland and other land
features has a catch scenic view; moderate for Alt2 and Alt1.
Occurrence of soil erosion is definite and expected to be

significant for all alternatives. Landslide is imminent for Alt2
due to the route traverses in escarpments and difficult terrain,
ECA V High Very High Moderate besides excavation induced risks of land sliding are probable
for this route; and the risk of erosion is likely to be high for
Alt1 due to devoid of vegetation cover and rugged terrain in
some segment of the route and moderate for Alt3.
The corresponding ECA value and MCA scores for each alternative route are shown in the table

April 2022
Table 4-5: Calculation of Aggregate ECA Risk Numbers

Alternative Routes
Environmental Alt 1 Alt2 Alt3
Risks I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V
Total
ECA Value ECA Value ECA Value
Level
Score
5 4 3 3 1 5 4 3 3 1 5 4 3 3 1
Total
Total
None 0 0 0 0 0
Minimum 1 0 0 3 3
Moderate 2 8 6 14 10 8 6 6 30 8 2 10
High 3 3 3 0 15 9 24
Very High 4 12 12 4 4 0
Critical 5 0 0 0
Total Risk
0 8 12 6 3 29 10 8 6 6 4 34 15 8 3 9 2 37
Number
Ranks 1st 2nd 3rd
MCA Score = 20 x {[80 – ECA1 - ECA2 - ECA3 - ECA4 - ECA5]/80}
1. MCA Score for Alt 1= 20 x {[80 – 0-8-12-6-3]/80} =12.75

Table 4-6: ECA Value and MCA Scores
Route Options. ECA value MCA Score Rank
Alternative Alternative - 1 29 12.75 1st preferred

Routes
Alternative - 2 34 11.5 2nd preferred
Alternative - 3 37 10.75 3rd preferred

April 2022
The corresponding ECA value and MCA scores for each alternative route are shown in the table
above.
Considering ERA Route Selection Manual-2013 sub-parameters and expert judgment made after
field visit of the aforementioned alternative routes, the computed ECA value and MCA score
obtained for the routes. As it is indicated in the above tables Alternative Route 1 (Alt 1) is become
the preferred route or ranked the first in that this route will relatively cause less harm or damage to
the environment; or compared to the other route options adverse impacts on environmental aspects
is less. However, development activities like road constructions do have a significant adverse
environmental effect or impact on the physical and socioeconomic environment of the surrounding;
which require a detail ESIA study in order to identify the positive and negative impacts, to devise
enhancement and mitigation measures and prepare environmental and social management plan
that assists during supervision of the project implementation. Thus, if this environmentally preferred
route is selected when summed up with other criteria such as engineering, social, economic and
others; the detail ESIA study must be conducted for the route.
4.3.3 Social Assessment

Based on ERA Route Selection Manual 2013, there are eight sub-parameters to be duly considered
in the assessment of social impact of the alternative routes. Based on an in-depth analysis of the
public consultation and socio-economic profiles of all the Woredas and Kebeles to be traversed by
these routes, the social impacts of the routes have been identified.
Based on field observation, primary data gathered from the field, consultation with the local
community gives the following findings to select the best route based on Socio-Economic and
Socio-Cultural Issues.
Selection Criteria The selection criterion of the road project is based on the ERA route selection
manual of 2013. The manual is based on Multi-Criteria Analysis. In this Multi- criterion analysis
the manual point out the factors included under socio-economic criteria for route selection. These
parameters are the following
1. Community Access
2. Development
3. Public Transport
4. Resettlement
5. Severance
6 Cultural Heritage
7 Road Safety
8 Pollution
Under each criterion, different factors are taken into considerations

April 2022
 Community access under this criterion the following points are included
A. The population served which implied access to the greatest number of potential road
users and access to the greatest range of community services, such as education and health
care is taken as an important variable.
B. Road importance is given by local consultation or consensus of respective woreda
administration and the community.
C. Number of kebeles connected (the road traversed). The road is varied in terms of km
covered based on the alternative given. However, the local communities, the local
officials, including public representative and the regional bureau have their preference
in terms of the alternatives given. In addition the woreda administration and the zone
administration approved the local authorities’ choice while the regional administration
mainly taken the importance of the route from the development potential of the local and
the region as a whole.
 Development Potential
A. Increased economic activity (Tourism activity, access to Market and other economic
benefit).
B. Important for Urban expansion and Investment opportunity
C. Fittingness for future road development that is whether it is marginal land and easily
expands in the future or terrain that is not easily developed.
On the bases of this criteria a comparison is made between the alternatives given
 Resettlement.
The number of people displaced and cost incurred due to the road construction
 Severance. The extent to which the road dissolves and has a negative impact on the people
living around. Road which passed in the settlement has more severance and has less score
and the one which bypass the settlement has high score
 Cultural site. Road which have a negative impact on the cultural site has low score compare
to road which have no negative consequence on the cultural site.
 Road Safety
A. Safety to the pedestrian
B. Whether the road passes through dense settlement or not

April 2022
 Pollutions
A. the volume of heavy traffic;
B. the number of steep grades; and
C. The proximity of settlements.
Accordingly, the assessment and subsequent evaluation carried out by the Consultant is
summarized herein under the table below.
Table 4-7: preliminary comparison for route options
No parameters Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3
Access to In terms of number of Alternative 2 starts at the Alternative 3 is similar to the other
Communit kebels connected this same point with alternative 1. two both started from Shire
y Service road is less compared However, in terms of the Kebele(Town), in terms of Km the
to the other two, it is number of kebeles it traversed length it covers greater area than
less importance given greater than that of A1 and the other two. Since this route
to this road by the less than A3. Road traversed more kebeles than the
local community importance given during other two it is more accessible to
during consultation, consultation is varied; the large community. Road importance
1 and the number of woreda & Zone administration given during consultation the
kebels along this road give less concern compared woredas Administration and the
is less than the other to A3. However, the regional zone give high emphasis for this
two alternatives administration gives high road. However, the Oromia
concern to this route than A3. regional Administration gives less
concern to this road. The reason is
that there are other routes under
construction which is connected to
this route.

April 2022
Developm The road has less Provide key investment for It Has the same advantage with A2
ent potential for economic urban renewal, metropolitan but since along this route there is
potential development. It and regional development another route under construction. It
traversed less number because along this route is, therefore, important to give
of population and protected forests are found priority for the area which is not
jumped important which is important for accessible to any road but has
places which is investment. development potential to exploit the
important for advantage that the people of the
2 Provide access to existing
investment and tourist project area and government can
inaccessible resources; like
attractions. It is less gain.
protected forest for tourism,
demanded for the
different types of cereals
future development of
including cereal grain barley
the area for marketing
important for brewed beer, for
of products to both the
animal farm like sheep
zone, regional and
central market.
Public It improved road Public transport will be Since it crossed greater number of
transport access only for part of facilitated to the majority of kebeles the provision of public
the community living people living around the transport for the project area is high
around the project project area . since the the only problem is due to additional
3 circle hence potential number of people settled road under construction on the root
for public transport around this project is high and . However, its impact for the
uptake is low no alternative road as of A3 . potential public transport uptake is
Therefore, its importance is high
High
Resettlem Less displacement More impact compared to the High compare to A1 and A2 since
ent compared to A2, and first one and less compared it traversed many kebeles
A3 since it is passed to A3 and so the impact is compared to the others.
4
on short distance in moderate
length and the number
of people resides on

April 2022
this road is smaller

compared to the other
alternatives.
Negative It has less negative Moderate impact compared High impact because it traversed
effects on effect compared to the to A3 but high impact many kebeles / settlement areas
other others since it compared to A1 more since it compared to the other two
communit traversed small traversed many settlement alternatives
5
y services kebeles and short areas
,including distant
severance
effects
Cultural The route traversed Though the cultural heritage is Since it crossed lots of kebeles
heritage through the existing not as such reveled in the compared to others the possibility of
6 road. So that the area the possibility of affecting affecting cultural heritage is high
impact it has is less cultural heritage compare to compared to others but this impact
compare A1 is high is not clearly reveled in this project
Road The road does not The road traversed many The route t crossed large number of
safety crossed many settlement areas compared to kebeles or settlement areas
settlement areas so A1 but less compared to A3, compared to A1 & A2 so its impact
7
that its impact on the so its impact is intermediate on the safety of the pedestrian is
safety of pedestrian is high
less
Pollution the volume of heavy The volume of heavy traffic; The impact it has in terms of
traffic; the number of steep grades; polluting the environment is high
The proximity of settlements. since it crossed many settlement
the number of steep
8
Which resulted in Air and areas compared to the other two
grades; and The
water pollution in the area is
proximity of the road
moderate
settlements is low

April 2022
Table 4-8: Scores for Social Assessment Section B

section II
Secondary Criteria Weight tertiary Criteria Sub Alt
Alt 1 Score Alt 2 Score Score
Weigh 3
Community Access
3 Community Access 3 p 1 G 3 G 3
(G/M/P)
Development potential Development
3 3 P 1 G 3 M 2
(G/M/P) potentials
Potentials for public
Public transport (G/M/P) 4 4 P 1 G 4 G 4
transport uptake
The likely number of
Resettlement (F/I/M) 4 households to be 4 F 4 I 3 M 2
displaced
Negative effects on
other community
Severance (F/I/M) 2 2 F 2 F 2.0 F 2.0
services, including
severance effects
Impacts on natural,
cultural & historical
Cultural heritage (F/I/M) 4 4 F 4 F 4 F 4
heritage, and
archaeological sites
Expected road
accidents during
Road Safety (G/M/P) 3 operation (based on 3 M 2.5 M 2.5 M 2.5
topographic and urban
proximity)
Potential for water and
Pollution (****L/M/H) 2 2 L 2 L 2.0 L 2.0
air pollution
Sub-total 25 17.50 23.50 21.50
NB: High (H), Moderate (M) and Low (L), the ranking calculation has been done based on ERA`s proposed
Weights for MCA as per Route Selection Manual-2013.

April 2022
4.3.4 Economic Analysis of the Alternative Routes

The economic analysis has been undertaken using the HDM-4 Model to evaluate each route. Apart from the
Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) which has been estimated at 10.23% discount factor, other measures of
worth have been computed including Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) (%) as presented in Table 5.6
below.
The economic evaluation carried out suggests the viability of the project since Economic Net Present Value
(ENPV) is positive and Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) is greater than the opportunity cost (10.23%
discount rate) for all alternatives. In prioritizing the routes result of each HDM-4 Model is used. Model inputs
that are common to all routes are used as discussed. Unique parameters such as terrain, cost, length, speed,
roughness and the like are considered. Accordingly, the routes are evaluated in this economic consideration
and then weighted, evaluated and prioritized (based on ERA Route Selection Manual-2013) with other
parameters such as engineering, qualitatively evaluated parameters of socio-economic and administrative as
well as environment in the next section. Comparison of Economic Consideration of Route Alternatives of the
road project is presented below.
Table 4-9: Comparison of Economic Consideration of Section B
AC Option
Economic Description
Weight
Parameters Unit Route 1 Route 2 Route 3
NPV 3 Mil.Br 2,203.038 1,577.02 2194.092
IRR 7 Percent 21.2 19.9 20.4
Total 10
Table 4-10: Scores for Economic Assessment Section B
Economic Description Scoring

No Weight
Parameters Unit Route 1 Route 2 Route 3 Route 1 Route 2 Route 3
1 NPV 3 Mil.Br 2,203.04 1,577.02 2194.092 3.00 2.15 2.99

2 IRR 7 Percent 21.2 19.9 20.4 7.00 6.57 6.74
Total 10 10.00 8.72 9.72
Source: Result of HDM-4 Model Analysis, 2020

April 2022
4.3.5 Administrative Considerations

According to the ERA manual 2013, the administrative parameters include Sustainability and strategic impact
of the road project.
Table 4-11: Administrative Considerations Section B
section II
Secondary tertiary
Weight Sub
Criteria Criteria Alt 1 Score Alt 2 Score Alt 3 Score
Weigh
Sustainability (G/M/P) 5 M 4 M 4 M 4
Strategic Impact (G/M/P) 5 M 3 G 5 G 4
Sub-total 10 7.00 9.00 8.00
4.3.6 Evaluation And Recommendation

4.3.6.1 Aggregate scores of the Alternative Routes
The aggregate results of the alternative routes are summarized herein under Table 4.12.
Table 4-12: Aggregate results of the alternative routes

April 2022
section II
Primary Secondary
Weigh
Road length 6 Road Length(km)* 6 29.7 6 39.2 4.55 37.86 4.71
Flat Terrain(%) 4 25% 0.99 7% 0.28 0% 0.00
Rolling Terrain(%) 2.66 69% 1.84 54% 1.43 71% 1.89
Topography 4
Mountain Terrain(%) 1.32 6% 0.08 39% 0.52 29% 0.38
Escarpment Terrain(%) 0 0% 0.00 0% 0.00 0% 0.00
Earthwork 4 Total Earthwork Cost (Birr*106) 4 168.11 4.00 357.41 1.88 410.46 1.64
Engineering Drainage and

4 Culverts and bridges cost (Birr*106) 4 100.16 3.44 86.17 4.00 108.61 3.17
structure
Geo Hazard 6 Presence of Geo Hazard(%)(F/I/M) 6 I 5 I 5 I 5
Availability of natural construction
Materials 3 3 M 2 G 3 G 3
materials (**G/M/P)(%)
pavement cost 3 Total pavement cost(Birr x 106) 3 183.88 3.00 230.77 2.39 287.12 1.92
cost 5 Total Cost (Birr x 106) 5 662.88 5.00 949.46 3.49 1,115.08 2.97
Sub-total 35 31.35 26.54 24.68
Community
Social Access 3 Community Access 3 p 1 G 3 G 3
(G/M/P)

April 2022
section II
Primary Secondary
Weigh
Development
potential 3 Development potentials 3 P 1 G 3 M 2
(G/M/P)
Public transport
4 Potentials for public transport uptake 4 P 1 G 4 G 4
(G/M/P)
Resettlement The likely number of households to be
4 4 F 4 I 3 M 2
(F/I/M) displaced
Severance Negative effects on other community

2 2 F 2 F 2 F 2
(F/I/M) services, including severance effects
Cultural Impacts on natural, cultural &

heritage 4 historical heritage, and archaeological 4 F 4 F 4 F 4
(F/I/M) sites
Expected road accidents during

Road Safety
3 operation (based on topographic and 3 M 2.5 M 2.5 M 2.5
(G/M/P)
urban proximity)
Pollution
2 Potential for water and air pollution 2 L 2 L 2 L 2
(****L/M/H)
Sub-total 25 17.50 23.50 21.50

April 2022
section II
Primary Secondary
Weigh
From Chapter
20 12.75 11.5 10.75
Environmental Fou
Sub-total 20 12.75 11.5 10.75
Viability(EIRR (%)) 7 21.2 7.00 19.9 6.57 20.4 6.74

Economic NPV (Mil.Br) 3 2203.04 3.00 1577.02 2.15 2194.09 2.99
Sub-total 10 10.00 8.72 9.72
Sustainability (G/M/P) 5 M 4 M 4 M 4
Administrative Strategic Impact (G/M/P) 5 M 3 G 5 G 4
Sub-total 10 10.00 7.0 9.0 8.0
Total 100 78.60 79.26 74.65

April 2022
4.3.6.2 Recommendation
Based on the multi-criteria comparative assessments carried out for the identified alternative routes
as outlined in the sections above, it is concluded that Alternative 2 are the most preferred alternative
routes.
The primary reasons for the selection of Alternative 2 is the highest social and strategic values when
it compares with the other option. This alternative route has significant strategic benefits based on
Consultation with Oromia road authority in addition to maximize traffic connectivity and access to
economic resources and market.
Considering the foregoing, the Consultant recommends Alternative 2 which comprise Kofele - Kore
- Shire - Koji Katara for Concept design and subsequent construction works.

April 2022
5 PRELIMINARY ENGINEERING DESIGN
5.1 TOPOGRAPHICAL SURVEY
5.1.1 Introduction
Topographic survey is one of the most important and crucial field tasks that form the base data
for the project design. The topographic survey is basic pre - requisite to capture all the physical
futures along the project corridor to enable the selection of feasible and most useful alignment
and later to design and to facilitate the establishment of final centreline of the project road and
land acquisition requirements. The topographic survey work methodology consists of following
main tasks.
 Establishment of geodetic control points using the most important technological advance
in surveying that is the Global Positioning System (GPS)
 Setting up of permanent beacons to serve as a reference system during road design and
construction
 Development of control traverse-line and geometric level-line.
 Detailed field survey using electronic Theodolite with EDM (Total Stations) and digital
Levels, which will have a different precision according to the topographic operations.
 Data Processing and CAD;
 Development of Land acquisition plan; and
 Delivery of survey Report including Diagrams and Monographs
 Ground surface and Structural location survey
For carrying the survey work the consultant approached EMA (Ethiopian Mapping Authority) and
collected EMA control points within the Project Corridor and deployed high and precision
instruments like GPS, Total station, and Auto level in compliance to the TOR.
5.1.2 Scope of Topographic Survey

The scope and methodology of the topographic surveying works conducted in the specified sections
(20% of the road segments) mainly includes
 Collection of data for route selection, route location and detail topographic surveying on the
field for 20% of the total segment.
 Route location and marking of the preferred route on the field.
 Establishing GPS points at every 3km interval of the road and tying it to the National Grid
System for selected section.
 Installation of permanent benchmarks at a maximum of 100m to 300m intervals.

April 2022
 Levelling of the control points with automatic level instruments

 Carrying out detailed cross-section survey at every 20m interval or lesser and with a band
width varying between 50 to 100m and beyond, depending on the terrain conditions, to the
left and right of the approximate centre line of road
 Carrying out detail surveying at the bridge locations
 Gathering all the information required for the land acquisition related to the project
 Generating a terrain model from the survey data and using the terrain model for the detailed
engineering design of the road
5.1.3 Establishment of Geodetic Control Points Using Global Positioning System (GPS)
Global positioning system (GPS) observations were determined within approximately about 3.0 KMs
interval along the road length. The geodetic GPS points were placed in highly accessible sites with
appropriate bench marks protected against impact to guaranty their stability and integrity.
The established GPS points are couple and inter visible to each other at a minimum distance of 100m
and were tied with national coordinates system found within the section selected to be surveyed along
the project road.
Accordingly For Kofele-Kore-Bekoji Road section, a total of 3 couples of GPS points are established
Namely GPS 001, GPS 101... GPS 002, GPS 102 and GPS 003, GPS 103
All the above GPS points are established with concrete Monument painted yellow and the description
is marked in red colour.
5.1.4 Tying With National Coordinate System

The observations were carried out with three units of Promark 3 system receivers using static mode
with at least 8 satellites tracking per site in order to determine 3-D WGS84 co-ordinates. The baseline
measurement accuracy was 5mm+ 0.5ppm with at least fifty minutes of observation.
5.1.5 Coordinate System

The coordinate system used for the project is the Ethiopian National Grid System (Clarke 1880
modified spheroid, U.T.M Grid Adindan Datum).
Station Name KUYR
To reach Narrative:-To reach the station, from Shashemene towards to Addis Ababa asphalt
road 13 km to the place called Gumruk

April 2022
Monument Description sketch and measurement: - the station is a concrete monument drilled
at the centre and surrounded by a chiselled triangle shape.
Table 5-1: EMA Control Point
Station Easting Northing Elevation
EMA(KUYR) 461415.040 805219.498 1931.614
A clear and intelligible monograph of the vertexes with a brief description of the location, photograph
and diagram for each of this were prepared.
5.1.6 Benchmark Setup

For Kofele –Kore Bekoji road section, a total of 63 Bench marks are established
5.1.7 Collection of Cross-section Data

Topography surveys are performed in order to determine the position of all natural and manmade
features within the selected road corridor. The topography surveying has been carried out with a
minimum of 60m band width (30m to the left and 30m to the right from the centre of the road) a
maximum staking interval of 20m. Where there is a high cross slope, the band width is increased in
order to provide design flexibility and accommodate the design cross section.
For Kofele-Kore-Bekoji Road Project, from the total 69.3km, 16.2 km detail survey has been
conducted in addition to that cross-section survey also conducted at town section of Kofele Kore and
shire
Table 5-2: List of Stations Surveyed for Kofele-Kore-Bekoji Road

S/No Station KM Remark
From To
1 3+000 6+000 3
2 24+400 28+000 3.6
3 28+000 28+600 0.6
4 29+800 30+800 1
5 53+500 56+00 2.5
6 60+000 65+500 5.5
Total 16.2

April 2022
5.1.8 Data Processing and CADD
The consultant uses computerized system whilst carrying out investigation and survey activities. This
permits an easier, more efficient and rapid management and guarantees a continuous control of all
activities and aspects of the work.
Specific programs are used to transfer and process field data into computers. Computer programs
such as AutoCAD are used for preparation of drawings and graphics, using software modules that
operate inside AutoCAD that are specifically designed for maps and for road projects.
The electronic field books and other topographic data are placed in ASCII and / or DXF formats or
MS Excel files.
5.2 GEOMETRIC DESIGN
5.2.1 Introduction
The overall process of the road alignment (horizontal and vertical) design in different terrain condition
to meet the need of the road users is generally known as geometric design. The main geometric
features are:
 The horizontal alignment;
 Vertical alignment; and
 Cross Section
Besides these main features, geometric design involves design of road furniture and safety
enhancing structures and elements
The process of geometric design usually encompasses multi-disciplinary dimensions that need
thorough assessment, investigation, analysis and optimizations. Considering these, each project
needs unique studies following Context Sensitive Design Approach.
Thus, geometric design must aim at combining various geometric design elements to produce a
sound and harmonious design which
 Provide the most simple geometry attainable, consistent with the physical constraints,
 Provide a design that has a reasonable and consistent margin of safety at the expected design
speeds,
 Provide a facility that is adequate and convenient to all the road users at the expected traffic
conditions,
 Provide a facility that is in harmony with the community and preserves environmental, scenic,
aesthetic, historic, and built and natural resources of the area.
 Provide a facility that has acceptable economic returns

April 2022
5.2.2 Design Control and Criteria
5.2.3 Functional Classification

The function of the road is determined by the character and anticipated level of service that the road
would render. Typically this relates into categorization or classification of the road as Trunk, Link,
Main Access, Collector and Feeder for which a generic definition is given indicating its primary
function and purpose. Since the road give access and mobility between Kofele, Kore, and Bekoji
towns and also links these provincial or Woreda important centers, the road is classified as main
access road (Class III) which can be designed to design classes ranging from DC2 to DC5 according
to ERA Geometric Design Manual 2013.
5.2.4 Traffic Volume

To determine the design AADT, the determination or selection of the design period of the road is very
important.
 Design Period
A design life of 15 to 20 years is recommended for paved roads and 10 years for unpaved roads.”
Based on ERA geometric design Manual 2013 the design period of the project may range from 15 to
20 years.
Based on the ERA Pavement design Manual 2013, the determination of the design period should
consider different factors such as Functional importance of the road, Traffic volume, Location and
terrain of the project, financial constraints and difficulty in forecasting traffic. The manual provides the
general guide line for selecting the design period as shown in the table below.
Table 5-3: Road functional Classification verses Design Period
Road Classification Design Period (years)

Trunk Road 20
Link Road 20
Main Access Road 15
Other Roads 10
Since the project road functional classification is main access road and bearing the above mentioned
factors in mind we select the design period of the project to be 15 years.
 Traffic Forecasting and AADT

To undertake the traffic forecasting and to find out the AADT of the project, all necessary activities
starting from desk work to site work has been done and detail activities that have been undertaking

April 2022
is shown in the traffic part of this report. Since the traffic count has been done in 2021, 2021 is
selected as the base year and it is assumed that the road will be opened for the traffic by 2025. The
summary of the traffic count is shown below.
Table 5-4: AADT along the road sections
2025 0 48 67 82 4 120 38 9 8 377
2026 0 52 73 88 5 133 42 10 9 412
2027 0 57 80 95 5 146 46 10 10 450
2028 0 62 87 103 5 160 51 11 11 492
2029 0 67 94 111 6 175 56 13 12 533
2030 0 73 102 120 6 191 61 14 13 579
2031 0 78 110 129 7 208 66 15 15 628
2032 0 85 119 140 7 226 72 16 16 681
2033 0 91 129 151 8 247 78 18 17 739
2034 0 99 140 163 8 269 85 19 19 802
2035 0 107 151 176 9 293 93 21 21 870
2036 0 115 163 190 10 320 102 23 22 944
2037 0 124 176 205 11 348 111 25 24 1024
2038 0 134 190 222 11 380 121 27 27 1111
2039 0 145 205 239 12 414 132 30 29 1206
The design standard applicable for the forecasted AADT‘s at mid-life of the design period is 681 at
2032 and would be DC5 for all road sections as per ERA Geometric Design Manual 2013.
 Terrain
The terrain of the project road is another factor considered in selection of design class. Based on our
site observation and the desk study, the following terrain classification has been identified.
Table 5-5: Project terrain classification for design standard consideration
Kofele-Kore-Bekoji Junction
Station Land Station Land

Length Length
Terrain type use Terrain type use
From To (m) From To (m)
type type
0+000 4+100 4100 Flat Urban 39+360 40+100 740 rolling Urban
4+100 7+400 3300 Flat 40+100 41+600 1500 rolling
7+400 10+800 3400 Rolling 41+600 44+800 3200 Mountainous
10+800 11+300 500 Rolling Urban 44+800 45+100 300 Mountainous Urban
11+300 13+000 1700 Rolling 45+100 46+000 900 rolling Urban
13+000 18+500 5500 Flat 46+000 50+200 4200 rolling
18+500 20+700 2200 Rolling 50+200 51+200 1000 rolling Urban

April 2022
20+700 22+200 1500 Rolling Urban 51+200 53+800 2600 rolling

22+200 25+200 3000 Flat Urban 53+800 57+800 4000 Mountainous
25+200 27+900 2700 Flat 57+800 59+300 1500 rolling Urban
27+900 28+500 600 Rolling 59+300 59+800 500 Mountainous Urban
28+500 30+040 1540 Rolling Urban 59+800 61+600 1800 Mountainous
30+040 30+600 560 Mountainous Urban 61+600 63+600 2000 rolling
30+600 32+800 2200 rolling 63+600 65+900 2300 Mountainous
32+800 36+900 4100 Flat 65+900 68+000 2100 rolling
36+900 39+360 2460 rolling 68+000 69+300 1300 rolling Urban
5.2.5 Design parameters

Based on the above finding, the project road has been designed as DC5 the parameters used are
shown below.
Table 5-6: Geometric Design Standard Parameters for DC5 Road
Urban/ Peri-
Design Element Unit Flat Rolling Mountainous Escarpment
Urban
Design Speed Km/hr 85 70 60 50(3) 50
Width of Running
m 7.0 As per typical
Surface
sections
Width of Shoulders m 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5
Minimum g=0% m 155 110 85 65 65

Stopping g=5% m 175 120 90 70 70
Sight
Distance g=10% m 205 140 105 75 75
Min. Passing Sight

m 330 270 230 180 180
Distance(2)
Min. SE=4% m 350 215 145 95(3) 95

Horizontal SE=6% m 310 195 135 85(3)
Curve
Radius SE=8% m 280 175 120 80(3) -

April 2022
Urban/ Peri-
Design Element Unit Flat Rolling Mountainous Escarpment
Urban
Transition Curves
Yes Yes No No No
Required
Maximum Gradient
% 4 6 8 8 7
(Desirable)
Maximum Gradient
% 6 8 10(4) 10(4) 9
(Absolute)
Minimum Gradient % 0.5(5) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Maximum Super-
% 8 8 8 8 4
elevation
Minimum Crest
K 55 30 17 10 10
Vertical Curve(1)
Minimum Sag
K 18 12 9 7 7
Vertical Curve
Normal Cross fall % 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Shoulder Cross fall % 3 3 2.5 2.5 2.5
Right of Way m 50 50 50 50 50
5.2.6 Typical Cross sections

Various types of typical cross section suitable for the different contextual requirements are
prepared and included:
 Rural areas over flat /rolling terrain
 Rural areas over Mountainous/Escarpment
 Built up areas for rural footpaths, villages, developing towns and towns

April 2022
Table 5-7: Town Sections along the Project
Station Total widths for both sides

Total
Walkway
Shoulder
-way (m)
Carriage
No. Length width Description Category
Parking
Median
From To
(m)
(m)
(m)
(m)
/
1 0+000 3+000 3000 7 7 2.5 5 21.5 Kofele Woreda seat
Developing
5
2 3+000 4+100 1100 7 0 5 17 Kofele Kebele
Developing
5
3 10+800 11+300 500 7 0 5 17 Gobe Village Kebele
4 20+700 25+200 4500 7 7 2.5 5 21.5 Kore Woreda seat
Developing
5
5 28+500 29+800 1300 7 0 5 17 Shire Kebele
Developing
5
6 29+800 30+700 900 7 0 5 17 Shire Kebele
Tsogeta Developing
5
7 39+300 40+100 800 7 0 5 17 Beseko Kebele
Waji Developing
5
8 44+800 46+000 1200 7 0 5 17 Asharige Kebele
Developing
5
9 50+200 51+200 1000 7 0 5 17 Shunegoro, Kebele
Developing
5
10 57+800 59+800 2000 7 0 5 17 Shunewachu Kebele
Developing
5
11 68+000 69+340 1340 7 0 5 17 Koji Katara, Kebele
The typical cross sections used for the project are included in Annex-3
5.2.7 Side slopes for cuts and fills

Side slopes and back slopes are an integral part of cross section design. The following table indicates
the recommended side slopes and back slopes based of height of slopes and type of embankment fill
or cut slope material.

April 2022
Table 5-8: Slope Ratio Table – Vertical to Horizontal
Height of Side Slope (V:H)

Material Type Back Slope
Slope Cut Fill (Note 5)
0.0 m-1.0 m 1:3 1:3
Earth Soil/ Decomposed rock/
1.0 m-2.0 m 1:2 1:2
Colluvial materials (Note 1)
Over 2.0 m 2:3 2:3
0.0 m-2.0 m 4:5 2:1
Sound and Intact Rock (Note 2)
Over 2.0 m 1:2 1:1 4:1
0.0 m-2.0 m 2:3 2:1
Weathered Rock (Note 3)
Over 2.0 m 1:1 3:1
Black-cotton (expansive clay) 0.0 m-2.0 m 1:6 -

(Note 4) Over 2.0 m 1:4 -
Note
(1)
When the cut depth is greater than 7m, provide back slope of 1(V):1(H) in
combination with minimum bench of 3m wide at 7m vertical interval to ensure
the stability of the slope. Provide lower bench, with width of 3m at cut depth of
2m.
(2) When the cut depth is greater than 15m, provide back slope of 4(V):1(H) in
the stability of the slope.
(3) When the cut depth is greater than 10m, provide back slope of 2(V):1(H) in
the stability of the slope.
(4) Move ditch away from fill at least 4m
(5) Fill benching shall be provided as shown on the typical drawing where the
ground cross fall exceeds 20% to protect the fill material from sliding and
increase the bondage between the ground and the fill material.
Note: The above recommended side and back slope ratio shall be used as a guide only, particularly,
because applicable standards in rock cuts are highly dependent on environments impacts. Also
certain soil slopes that may be present at subgrade level may be unstable at 1:2 side slopes, therefore,
a higher standard will need to be applied for these soils. Slope configuration and treatments in areas
with identified slope stability problems should be addressed on specific finding obtained during
construction stage.

April 2022
5.2.8 Departures from standard

Departures from standard proposed to arrive at an optimum design considering the contrasting and
conflicting design objectives of highways which includes safety, stability, serviceability, economy,
environmental and social compatibility, and practicality of the design for construction and maintenance
are sometimes required especially in difficult terrain conditions, difficult geological and geotechnical
conditions, sensitive social and environmental areas and sensitive ROW obstructions.
Based on the concept geometric design of the project road, the anticipated departures from standard
include
 Minimum radius of horizontal curvature and
 Maximum gradient
5.3 ROAD SAFETY

5.3.1 Road Safety Design
5.3.1.1 Road safety Philosophy
Road safety philosophies generally express a long-term vision of an ideal road traffic system
where accidents and serious personal injury are virtually eliminated. Road "accidents" are not
considered accidental events that are the inevitable consequence of our demand for mobility;
they are seen as events that can be prevented. The main elements of road safety philosophies
reflect generally well known safety principles. People are fallible and make errors. Furthermore,
people are physically vulnerable and can only withstand a limited amount of external forces.
Therefore, road safety measures based on these philosophies and principles take account of
these limitations and aim to develop a road system that:
 Minimizes the chances of human error.
 Is forgiving of errors when they do occur.
 Prevents conflicts among road users with large differences in speed, mass and direction.
In line with these principles, a road traffic system that is safe and sustainable will have the
following features:
 its infrastructure will have been adapted to take into account human limitations, using proper
road design;
 its vehicles will be equipped to make the task of driving easier and to provide a high standard
of protection in crashes;
 Its road users will be provided with adequate information and education and, where
appropriate, will be deterred from undesirable or dangerous behaviour.

April 2022
5.3.1.2 Risk factors influencing crash involvement

Understanding the major risk factors influencing crash involvement is important in arriving at
proper roadway design for safety. The following are the major risk factors.
 Speed
 Pedestrians and cyclists
 Driver fatigue
 Road-related factors
 Safety defects in existing roads
 Inattention to safety in designing roads
5.3.1.3 Road safety design principles and strategies
Road safety design principles and strategies employed in the project road are described in the
sections below.
5.3.1.3.1 Incorporating safety features into road design
A key objective of safety engineering is to make drivers naturally choose to comply with the speed
limit. In line with this, a range of engineering measures are designed to encourage appropriate
speed and make hazards easily perceptible. These measures include:
 improved vertical alignment;
 advisory speed limits at sharp bends;
 regular speed-limit signs;
5.3.1.3.2 Safer routes for pedestrians and cyclists

The creation of networks of connected and convenient pedestrian and cyclist routes, together
with the provision of public transport, can lead to greater safety for vulnerable road users.
The basic roadway features which enhance the safety in Towns, Developing Towns, Villages and
Rural Footpaths along with their limits are indicated in the table below.

Tender Document Preparation & Engineering Cost Estimation of Kofele – Kore – April 2022
Table 5-9: Basic Roadway Features in Towns, and Developing Towns,
Station Total widths for both sides

Total
Shoulder/
No. Length Carriage-way Parking Median width Description Category
From To Walkway
(m) (m) (m) (m)
(m)
1 0+000 3+000 3000 7 7 2.5 5 21.5 Kofele Woreda seat
2 3+000 4+100 1100 7 5 0 5 17 Kofele Developing Kebele
3 10+800 11+300 500 7 5 0 5 17 Gobe Village Developing Kebele
4 20+700 25+200 4500 7 7 2.5 5 21.5 Kore Woreda seat
5 28+500 29+800 1300 7 5 0 5 17 Shire Developing Kebele
6 29+800 30+700 900 7 5 0 5 17 Shire Developing Kebele
7 39+300 40+100 800 7 5 0 5 17 Tsogeta Beseko Developing Kebele
8 44+800 46+000 1200 7 5 0 5 17 Waji Asharige Developing Kebele
9 50+200 51+200 1000 7 5 0 5 17 Shunegoro, Developing Kebele
10 57+800 59+800 2000 7 5 0 5 17 Shunewachu Developing Kebele
11 68+000 69+340 1340 7 5 0 5 17 Koji Katara, Developing Kebele

Consultancy Services for Package 6: Concept Design, Risk Assessment, Ethiopian Roads Administration
Feasibility and Environmental Impact Assessment Studies, Resettlement Final Concept Design Report,
Action Plan, and Tender Document Preparation & Engineering Cost November 2021
Estimation of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction
5.3.1.3.3 Side walk curb ramps
When designing a project that includes curbs and adjacent sidewalks, proper attention
should be given to the needs of persons with disabilities whose means of mobility are
dependent upon wheelchairs and similar devices. Such curb ramps shall be provided at
all crossing location for safe and comfortable operation of wheel chairs.
5.3.1.3.4 Traffic-calming measures
At speeds below 30 km/h pedestrians can coexist with motor vehicles in relative safety.
Speed management and traffic-calming include techniques such as discouraging traffic
from entering certain areas and installing physical speed-reducing measures, such as
roundabouts, road narrowing, chicanes and road humps. These measures are often
backed up by speed limits of 30 km/h, but they can be designed to achieve various levels
of appropriate speed.
Speed humps in towns, developing towns and villages shall be designed for 26km/hr to
35km/hr to ensure safety for vulnerable road users and especially pedestrians. At zebra
crossings, the speed humps shall be designed and constructed with a flat top with suitable
pavement markings.
The rumble strips shall be of type B in accordance with section 9510 of ERA Standard
Technical Specifications, 2013
5.3.1.3.5 Bus Lay-Bys
Bus Lay-Bys shall be provided at selected locations in developing towns and villages.
They are not needed in town sections, as buses can stop on section of the parking lane
marked as “Bus Stop”.
They should be located at the existing established locations of bus hip on and hip off
locations but should be at least 75m away from junctions and at locations which have
adequate sight distance for stopping.
5.3.1.3.6 Road side Furniture and Road Markings

The various devices and road furniture used to control, guide, warn and regulate the traffic
are termed as traffic control devices. These features include the elements intended to
improve the driver's perception and comprehension of the continually changing
appearance of the road. Hence, they contribute to reduction of risk of occurrence of

accidents. Widely used and the most common types of traffic guide devices and furniture
for road projects are:-
 Traffic sign,
 Road (Pavement) Marking
 Guide posts (Marker Posts) and Guard Rail
 Km post
The design of these facilities will be done in accordance with ERA guideline.
Traffic Signs
Traffic signs are of three general types:

 Regulatory Signs: indicate legal requirements of traffic movement and are essential for
all roads.
 Warning Signs: indicate conditions that may be hazardous to highway users
 Information Signs: convey information of use to the driver
Warning signs should be provided where there are unexpected changes in the driving
conditions, for example where:
 The geometric standards for a particular class of road have been changed along a
short section of road, for example a sharp bend, a sudden narrowing of the road, or an
unexpectedly steep gradient;
 A bend occurs after a long section of straight road;
 There is an unexpected school crossing;
 A drift or other structure is not clearly visible from a safe distance;
 The driver is approaching traffic calming measures such as speed hump.
Traffic signs have been provided, depending on the requirement, as per ERA's Standard
Specification 2014 and ERA's Standard Drawings 2014. Retro-reflective material
engineering grade material shall conform to the requirements of ASTM D 4956 or BS 873
Part 6,
Marker Posts (Guide Posts)
. Guideposts are intended to make drivers aware of potential hazards such as abrupt
changes in shoulder width, abrupt changes in the alignment, and approaches to structures
etc. For changes in shoulder width and approaches to structures, guide posts should be
placed at appropriate intervals.
The required spacing of guideposts on curves according to ERA’s Geometric Design
Manual-2013 is shown in Table below.

Table 5-10: Guide post Spacing
Curve Radius (m) Guide Post Spacing (m)
500 35
200 20
100 12
50 8
30 5
Marker posts (guide posts) for high fill embankments
Marker posts (guide posts) shall be installed for high fill embankments between 3m
and 6m at intervals of 25m. If the guard rail installed for fill heights in excess of 6m is
not going to have illuminative reflectors, guide posts shall be installed at every 20m.
KM posts are provided as per ERA standards at 1Km interval.
Road Traffic Markings
Road Traffic Markings include

 Pavement and curb markings
 Object markers
Pavement markings include centreline markings, edge line markings, lane line
markings in towns, developing towns, villages and rural footpath sections, zebra
crossing markings, speed hump markings, yield line markings, chevron markings and
pavement symbols and letters markings.
Curb markings are pavement markings painted adjacent to the curb to ensure curb
delineation and visibility.
Object markers are used to mark obstruction within or adjacent to the roadway.
Safety barriers/Guardrails
Where appropriate, provision has been made to construct safety barriers from heavy
masonry or concrete or steel guardrails. High quality masonry work is found in Ethiopia
and local communities may benefit as a result of the labour-intensive construction
method, wherever such barriers are to be constructed. Safety barriers with illuminative
reflectors are recommended to be installed
 on bridge approaches at least for 30m on either ends

 on curves with less than the minimum radius and

 for high fill sections in excess of 6.0m weather supported by retaining wall or not.
In addition, concrete safety barrier “New Jersey barrier” may be used as required during
detail design in selected sections. Concrete and masonry guardrail details are included in
figure below.
Figure 5-1: Concrete/Masonry Barrier Detail
Steel Guard rail are recommended on all bridge approaches for a length of 50m on
approaching side and 25m on leaving side on both sides.
5.4 HYDROLOGY / HYDRAULIC DESIGN
5.4.1 Introduction
5.4.1.1 General
Following the contract agreement, the consultant has made all the necessary preparation
and undertaken concept design activities including onsite physical survey and preliminary
desk analysis giving a special consideration to project major features. The project is
passing through plain ,ridge and rolling sections often dissected by minor and major
streams and flow concentration drainage lines. Defined major streams mostly provided by
existing structures deserving upgrading work due to hydraulic, structural and other design
requirements. Plain section of the road characterized by localized flow that needs to be
collected and relived at appropriate position either in the form of cross drainage structure
or turnout .All minor cross drainage structures are found to be hydraulically insufficient
and substandard and proposed to be replaced by appropriate size cross drainage
structures. Section of the road segment from Kofele to Shire with an estimated length of
30km characterized by ridge or divide plain section where the general slope dominated to

both right and left hand side but side flow required to be relived either to the left or right
direction. But section after Km 30 (Shire ) by large drains towards left direction and
dissected by major and minor streams showing rolling topographic land forms
predominately . Raised road level with minimum height 0.8m required to be maintained
on plain/divide sections to guide side generated localized flow longitudinally till appropriate
positions. Otherwise the road required to be provided by well serving safe side drainage
facility despite plain nature of the topographic land forms .
Watershed area of the project located on the upper reach of Rift Valley basin and acts as
a sub basin to rift Valley River basin.
Figure 5-2: Projected road basin category map (Rift Valley basins)

5.4.1.2 Climate
The ITCZ influences the rainfall formation on Rift Valley valley basin where Kofele-Shire-
Bekojie Junction Road watersheds located respectively acts as a sub basin to this major river
basin of the country. Kofele and Bekojie stations are identified on the project roads and used
to characterize project climate features.
Mean annual rainfall for Kofele and Bekojie stations are around 1170mm and 1080mm
respectively showing Weyna Dega Climate features.
Kofele Monthly Mean Rainfall

200
150
RF,mm
100
50
0
Months
Figure 5-3: Kofele station mean monthly rainfall data
Kofele Mean Monthly Temp

16
15.5
15
14.5
Temp
14
13.5
13
12.5
12
11.5
Months
Figure 5-4: Kofele station mean monthly Temperature

Bokojie mean Monthly RF

250
200
150
RF,mm
100
50
0
Monhs
Figure 5-5: Bokojie station mean monthly rainfall data
Bokojie Mean Monthly Temp

16
14
12
10
8
6
Temp
4
2
0
Months
Figure 5-6: Bokojie station mean monthly Temperature
Rainfall pattern of the area depicts that, extended bimodal rainfall seasons for Kofele
station and unimodal but long and extended rainfall distribution to Bekojie station thereby
creating moist condition on the area .
5.4.1.3 Design Standard

From project traffic and feasibility study Kofele -Shire-Bekojie Junction Road project was
considered as class 5 or DC5 Road. Therefore, the design standard DC-5 is selected for the
project based on ERA GDM-2013. Accordingly, DC-5 standard or class of the road considered

in drainage facilities preliminary design work. No departure has been considered in designing
road drainage facilities.
Table 5-11: Design standard /class and recommended return period
Geometric Design Standard DC5

Structure Type
Design Check
Gutters and Inlets* 5 10
Side Ditches 5 10
Ford/Low-Water Bridge - -
Culvert, pipe (see Note) 10 25
Span<2m
Culvert, 2m<span <6m 25 50
Short Span Bridges 6m<span<15m 25 50
Medium Span Bridges 15m<span<50m 50 100
Long Span Bridges 50 100
spans>50m
5.4.2 Hydrological Study

5.4.2.1 Approach
The hydrological analysis is the most important step prior to the hydraulic design of any
drainage structure. Assessment of hydrological condition involves study of landscape
characteristics of the watershed area including topographic conditions, soil characteristics,
land cover, land use and climate conditions including atmospheric temperature and rainfall.
Good hydraulic recommendation of all drainage structures crossing the road largely depends
on the reliability of hydrological analysis and site characterizations.
All the available data and documents are collected and systematic investigation, assessment
and analysis approach followed on the project under consideration. Identification of major
flood sources, characterize the flow pattern and estimate the flood volume/rate are the major
steps carried out in hydrological study of the project at preliminary level. Apart from
major/minor flood sources, localized flows are also analyzed as required by evaluating
potential impact on the road.

The procedures and recommendation given in ERA DDM,2013 has been used to make
hydrological analysis along with recent automated watershed modelling tools (WMS, QGIS
and HEC HMS).
5.4.2.2 Design Rainfall Characterization

Based on Ethiopian Roads Administration regional rainfall category mapping, the project
watershed falls on region B2. Hence, Region B2 expected to represent the area and
characterized by improved average antecedent moisture condition mainly from better rainfall
distribution pattern and moisture retention capacity of the soil.
Table 5-12: Region B2 design rainfall (ERA DDM,2013)

Figure 5-7: Region B1 Intensity -duration-frequency Curve (ERA) DDM,2013)

5.4.2.3 Drainage and Topographic Characterization

As stated, Kofele-Shire-Bekojie Junction proposed alignment is passing largely through plain
and rolling terrain where stretch from 0 to 30km more showing plain divide topographic
features and the remaining section by large tend to have a rolling topography. Drainability
which refers cross sectional and longitudinal improved drainage condition slightly maintained
in plain section but improved drainability condition has been prevailed on rolling section of the
road. On plain or divide section a number of minor relief structures and turnouts required to
be in place to discharge localized side collected flows and on rolling water tend to flow against
the road. On rolling section, project road dissected by a number of minor and major streams
which acts as major flood discharging positions. Side concentrated flow on plain or flat section
required to be relived by minor cross drainage structures augmented by outlet side hydraulic
improvement works (slope modification through channelization as practical possible).
Figure 5-8: Corridor Topographic feature

Figure 5-9: Watershed and Drainage plan
5.4.2.4 Watershed Physiographic Characterization

From land cover and major soil coverage map shown, appropriate curve number for each
catchment determined relating to hydrologic soil-cover complex table 5-13 provided by ERA
drainage design manual 2013. The curve number determined from table for average
antecedent moisture condition. The curve number of 83 to 93 estimated to make hydrological
analysis.
Land cover map of project watershed has been extracted from 1:1000,000 Scale National
Land cover map and verified based on physical inspection. Intensively cultivated land forms
with open land and distributed forest constitute the over all land cover condition of the
watershed.

Figure 5-10: Kofele-Shire-Bokojie Junction land cover map
Major soil coverage map of the project has been prepared from 1:1000,000 Scale National
Soil Coverage Map where a range of major soils cover the project watershed categorized
under hydrological soil group B and D.Chromic Luvisols,Eutric Nithosols and Orthic Luvisols
under hydrological soil group B and Pellic Vertisols under hydrological soil group D .

Figure 5-11: Kofele-Shire-Bokojie Junction Major soil cover map
With land use and major soil coverage physiographic features, curve number table has been
prepared and weighted average curve number to each watershed has been computed
employing GIS tool.
Table 5-13: Land cover and Hydrologic soil group for project watershed
Hydrologic Soil Group
ID Land Cover A B C D
1 " MODERATELY CULTIVATED " 74 83 88 90
2 " INTENSIVELY CULTIVATED " 76 85 90 93
3 "OPEN WOODLAND" 48 67 77 83
" AFRO-ALPINE HEATH

4 VEGETATION " 48 67 77 83

5.4.2.5 Hydrograph and Peak Discharge Estimate

WMS Based Rational Method – This method is used for peak discharge determination from
smaller/localized catchments (less than 50 ha or 0.5Km2 area) as recommended by ERA
drainage design manual, 2013. This method is employed to compute peak discharge from
small watersheds in designing minor cross drainage structures. Peak discharge from seven
small watersheds has been computed employing Rational Method.
WMS Based SCS Method – This method is used for peak discharge determination from
greater size catchments (greater than 50 ha. Hence, HEC-1 built in SCS method is used to
compute peak discharge for identified limited watersheds of area size greater than 0.
5km2.Peak discharge estimate and corresponding hydrograph for 15 watersheds has been
made using HEC-1 SCS method
5.4.3 Hydraulic Design

5.4.3.1 General
A total of 129 cross drainage structures (6 bridges ,20 slab/box and 103 pipe culverts)
recommended at concept design stage on Kofele-Shire-Bokojie Junction Road segment.
5.4.3.2 Culvert Preliminary Design

Drainage structures hydraulic sizing has been made both to small and relatively major streams
deserving culverts on the proposed alignment. FHWA HY 8.7 /Auto cad Civil 3D culvert
hydraulic design softwares have been used for culvert hydraulic evaluation and sizing
purpose. From physical hydraulic survey and assessment, all minor drainage structures (pipe
and slab culverts ) are proposed to be replaced due to hydraulic and structural problems .
Annex 2 showed cross drainage structures schedule of the project under concept design
scope.
5.4.4 Drainage Outlet

Existing drainage outlets have been used mostly with conveyance improvement intervention
and potential interference to downstream property has been limited to the extent possible.
Proposed drainage system is formulated taking into account drainage outlet problem and
physically prevailing conditions where longitudinal drainage management and turn out option
can be considered as a practical recommendation in some stretches keeping the land value
of the area and properly intercepting side flow. However, on plain section localized flow from
right hand side proposed to be relived with limited structures positions.
5.4.4.1 Side Drainage Management

Erath ditch with trapezoidal geometry and minimum bed width 0.7m and height 0.7m under
side slope 1:1.5 proposed to be provided depending upon side sheet flow contribution

magnitude. Size shall be var with respect to detail design analysis finding. Apart from,
adjoining lad flow contribution collecting ditch provision, urban section needs to be provided
by side drain on both sides (rectangular masonry ditch with minimum size 0.8n bed width and
0.8m height).
5.4.4.2 Bridge Hydraulic Modelling

Bridge hydraulic modelling and /or evaluation for identified bridges (mostly existing bridges )
has been carried out using HEC RAS modelling with HEC RAS model employing bumpy DEM
based topographic data .
Design criteria limiting the potential maximum backwater rise on the immediate upstream
section of the bridge (< 0.5m), keeping the upstream bridge approach flow contraction and
down stream flow expansion stretch length a bit relaxed to avoid any impact-oriented flow
condition at bridge inlet-outlet section has been considered in bridge hydraulic effiency
evaluation. Hydrological data from hydrological analysis and geometric data from ground
survey work has been used as a sole analysis input.
Accordingly, 6 new bridges are identified and evaluated under concept design stage where
some of the existing structures hardly meets hydraulic ,structural and other requirements.
5.4.5 Conclusion and Recommendation
Making the road corridor drainage enough and creating hydraulically stable condition should
be the main drainage objective of the project addressing both hydrological analysis and
hydraulic designs. As road segment significantly passing through plain section proper
drainage management integrating cross and longitudinal drainage facility with sufficient road
level raising required to be in place .
Appropriate drainage outlet selection depending upon the land use and onsite property
condition is found to be critical. In this regard drainage outlet selection has to be made properly
with due and integrated management option to drainage and resource importance.
Cross drainage structures from pipe to bridge proposed to be used on the road. For localized
flow discharging condition on plain section with no probable silt load condition, 42” pipe can
be used otherwise minimum 48” pipe proposed to be used.
As the hydraulic preliminary design has been made by large based on coarse resolution
satellite data , all recommendations need to be revaluated and designed properly employing
the right and better quality data .

5.5 SOIL AND MATERIALS INVESTIGATION
5.5.1 Back grounds

this section presents the Soil and Material Investigations part for the Kofele – Kore – Bekoji
road project. The project stipulates upgrading of the existing highly deteriorated earth roads
to asphalt pavement.
Hence, this section addresses the general features of the route alignment with respect to
identification of type, extent and properties for the native subgrade soils, existing road
condition, available construction materials, problematic soil identification, and in general all
the geotechnical investigations conducted to characterize the soils and materials along the
route.
5.5.2 Field Investigation Works

Site survey and investigation works have been conducted to assess the overall condition of
the project road corridor and to collect the relevant information required for the concept design
purpose. Accordingly, a team composed of senior Materials/Pavement Engineer and one
laboratory technician were mobilized to the project area to carry out detailed geotechnical
investigation for Kofele – Kore – Bekoji road section.
Primary data of the project includes those data that were directly collected from site (field work)
and laboratory testing following the project work methodology, as stated in ERA Site
Investigation Manual, 2013 and the project Terms of Reference (ToR).
The Soils and Materials field investigation works mainly comprised of the following activities:
 Existing Road condition survey
 Visual Soil extension survey, test pit digging, logging and taking of representative
samples from the pits at regular intervals,
 Prospecting and locating of potential construction material sources, visual inspection
of quality, estimation of volume of reserve and/or available material and taking of
representative samples for laboratory tests
After completion of the field works, all the collected subgrade and construction materials
samples were submitted to two central laboratories (ICT Engineering Plc for Kofele – Kore –
Shire road section and STADIA Engineering Works Conusltant Plc for Shire – Bekoji road
section), and all required tests were carried out based on test order given by the senior
Materials/Pavement Engineer of the project.

5.5.2.1 Existing Pavement Condition

During the site visit, on the information gathered through existing pavement condition survey,
the project road, Kofele-Kore-Bekoji has an existing gravel road for the first 30km (from Kofele
– Kore - Shire road section) that can give access for all weather condition. In addition, the
road section from Km-50 to end of the project (from shongoro-Shona-Koji) has very poor
gravel access road that gives access with very poor riding quality. However, the remaining
20km of the road section (from Shire – shongoro village is inaccessible.
Picture 5-1: Start of the project (SOP), Kofele Picture 5-2: Existing gravel road
town roundabout (deteriorated road with poor riding quality),
at Km-6+000
Picture 5-3: Existing gravel road (deteriorated Picture 5-4: Existing gravel road (very deteriorated
road with poor riding quality), at km-17+200 road, difficult to access), at km-54+000
The existing road sections (Kofele – Kore – Shire and Wolkite-Shona-Koji road sections) are
highly deteriorated with very thin gravel wearing course, and severe pavement distresses such
as corrugation, rutting, potholes and depression are the main ones observed during the site
visit.

Generally, the existing road sections of the project have very poor riding quality and
considered as substandard to be considered in the new pavement design. Hence, the project
will be treated as new road in design of the project road.
5.5.2.2 Subgrade Investigations

Considering the ToR and ERA site investigation 2013, sampling of soils and materials that
satisfies the minimum sampling intervals for the concept design works was carried out.
Accordingly, for Kofele – Kore – Bekoji junction road, detail alignment subgrade investigation
was carried out by;
 Visual soil extension survey
 Test pit investigation every 1km interval, and
 Sampling for identification test (sieve analysis, plasticity and Classification tests) every
1km interval and sampling for modified proctor and soaked CBR was carried out every
3km interval.
 Soil Extension Survey
Soil extension survey was conducted to identify homogenous stretches. Subgrade soils with
nearly similar soil type are grouped together and their extent was determined. These
extensions were then used to avoid narrow soil stretches from being overlooked during test
pitting and sampling process.
From the subgrade investigation results, it is possible to see that the subgrade
materials for Kofele-Kore-Shire are predominantly composed of reddish brown
medium to high plastic silty clay soil, which is classified as unsuitable soil to be used
as road bed of the project. Reddish brown medium plastic silty clay soils are also dominantly
encountered from Shire to Koji (Bekoji junction) section of the project. Significant sections are
also covered by black silty clay expansive soils (black cotton soils). Pockets of rocky sections
(light grey to brown moderately weathered rock) are also encountered from Km-55+400 to
Km-56++200, Km-61+300 to Km-62+400 and Km-63+500 to Km-64+900 respectively.

Picture 5-5: Typical brown silty clay (Km-6+500) Picture 5-6: Dark brown high plastic silty clay (Km-40+500)
Picture 5-7: Pockets of weathered rock & boulders (Km- Picture 5-8: Light grey moderately weathered rock (Km-
41+200) 62+400)
Picture 5-9: Light grey moderately weathered rock (Km- Picture 5-10: Black silty clay (Black cotton soil) at Km-63+150
61+800)

 Test Pit Excavation, Sampling and Logging
For concept design stage, to examine engineering behaviour of the indigenous sub-grade
soils, test pits were excavated at 1km interval for the Kofele – Kore – Bekoji junction road
project. Test pits of approximately 1.0m by 1.0m size were dug at the centreline on the
alignment route, and the depth of excavation was with minimum of 1.5m.
After test pits excavation, the soil strata were measured, lithological soil formations were
properly logged and required subgrade materials were sampled properly. Sample bags which
has 50kg capacity were used collect the samples. The sample bags were labelled with the
project name, material type, sample date, test program for the sample. Besides, paper tags
containing the project name, material type and description, laboratory test program, sampling
date and other relevant information were inserted in each of the sample bags. Each of the test
pits was backfilled, properly compacted and levelled off to their original level after sampling
and logging.
Picture 5-11: Site investigation works (Km-2+000 and Km-5+000)
Accordingly, a total of seventy (70) test pits were excavated for the Kofele – Kore - Bekoji road
project and the subgrade samples were collected for complete test (every 3km interval) and
indication test (every 1km interval). Complete test includes CBR, Moisture-Density relation,
Atterberg Limits and Classification tests, whereas indication test includes Atterberg Limits and
Classification tests.

As per the test order of the Senior Material and Pavement Engineer of the project, all subgrade
materials were submitted to the laboratory to be tested as per the given standard test
designation.
Table 5-14: Number of collected subgrade samples
Number of
Standard
Subgrade
SN Test Descriptions Test
Materials sampled
Designation
for Test
1 Liquid Limit AASHTO T89 70
2 Plastic Limit & Plasticity Index AASHTO T90 70
Particle Size Distribution – Wet AASHTO 70
3
sieving T311
AASHTO 24
4 Compaction, Modified Proctor
T180
CBR (3-point, soaked) and AASHTO 24
5
CBR-swell T193
5.5.2.3 Construction Materials Assessments

Availability of suitable construction materials within the project vicinity plays a vital role on the
investment cost of the project. Therefore, materials investigations were carried out along the
project road corridor (Kofele – Kore – Bekoji junction) aiming at identifying potential suitable
and sufficient sources of pavement construction materials (gravel, hard rock, sand and water)
within economical haulage distance of the project road.
The potential construction material sites have been identified and sampled for laboratory
testing. Each potential site has been examined in terms of material type, overburden
thickness, access, estimated quantity and vegetation cover, and finally accompanied by
colored photographs showing these features of the site. Coordinates of each material location
has also been marked by handheld GPS. The available quantity has been estimated by
measuring the aerial extent of the outcrops and estimating the depth of occurrence from the
condition of the site geology. For existing sources the depth has also been measured from
exposed face of pits. The depth of overburden thickness on the other hand is estimated from
the exposed faces of open pits and by pitting to the depth of material sources for the case of
new sites.

Taking into account the above factors potential sources of construction materials were located,
which include possible sources of rock, natural gravel sources, embankment source, natural
sand and water. Representative samples were collected from these sources for further
investigation of their quality test as stated in the ToR and design standard.
Table 5-15: Summary of Identified Construction Materials, Kofele-Kore-Bekoji
Type of Number of
SN Intended Purpose
sources Identified sources
Soil Borrow
1 For fill and embankment 9
Areas
Gravel Borrow For natural subbase course and granular 4
2
Pits backfill
Hard Rock 4
3 For Crushed aggregate
Quarry
4 Masonry Source For Masonry stone 6
5 Sand For fine aggregate of concrete works 3
6 Water For compaction and concrete works 7
The project road shall be constructed to asphalt concrete road standard which requires
adequate quantity of strong lower pavement layers at reasonable intervals. Special attention
is therefore given to locate borrow materials for fill (embankment construction) and natural
gravel sources for lower pavement layers (i.e., natural subbase and capping layers) and hard
rock quarry for upper pavements and wearing course. For construction of drainage structures
and retaining walls, masonry stone, sand and water source were also assessed during field
investigation periods.

Picture 5-12: Borrow pits Photo-1
(The above pictures show borrow sources located at Ashoka area, 12km from Kofele and
10km from Kofele respectively)
Picture 5-13: Borrow pits Photo-4
 Crushed Stone Quarries and Masonry Stones
Four (4) potential rock quarry sources were assessed, and sampled for laboratory testing.
Similarly, six (6) masonry sources were identified during field investigation, and sample was
collected for all necessary laboratory testing.
Picture 5-14: Rock Quarry Photo-1

(The above pictures show rock quarry located at 30+000 offset 270m RHS and 3km from
Kofele along Ashoka area respectively)

Picture 5-15: Rock Quarry Photo-3
(The above pictures show rock quarry located at Km-55+600 offset 6m RHS and Km-31+900
offset 30m RHS respectively)
 Sand Sources
From site investigation, it is possible to notice that good quality of sand source is obtained
from langano area. In addition, sand source from Bole and Halaba town area is also identified.
Accordingly, three potential river sand sources are identified, and sampled for further checking
for their suitability to be used as source of fine aggregate for concrete mixes.
Picture 5-16: Sand Source Photo-1
(The above pictures shows sand source located at Langano area, 32km from
Shashemene)

Picture 5-17: Sand Source Photo-2

(The above pictures show sand sources located from Bole area, and 14km along the road
towards Halaba area respectively)
Water Sources
The investigation finding revealed that water is readily available in the project especially on
major crossings of the project. A total of seven (7) possible water sources were identified and
sampled for further checking for their suitability to be used as source of water for concrete and
compaction purpose.
Picture 5-18: Water Source Photo-1
(The above pictures show water source located at Km-23+100 offset 2.1km LHSand Km-
30+000 offset 720m LHS respectively)

Picture 5-19: Water Source Photo-3

(The above pictures show water source located at Km-55+670 and Km-64+450 respectively)
5.6 PAVEMENT DESIGN
The objective of structural pavement design is to provide a road surface which can withstand
the expected traffic loading over the design period without deteriorating below a predetermined
level of service. And, this is achieved by providing a pavement structure whereby stresses on
the subgrade–induced by traffic are reduced to acceptable levels. This requirement places
particular emphasis on the need for sufficient bearing capacity of the pavement structure and
provision of drainage and sufficient earth works in flood or problematic soil areas.
A commonly used pavement structure in the country is the flexible pavement type whereby a
surface treatment or a bituminous mix is placed over a base course made of granular
materials.
5.6.1 Design Standards and Departures
Regarding departure, no departure has considered while adopting the design manual. The
pavement components suitable for the sub-grade and the anticipated cumulative axle load are
selected based on ERA Flexible Pavement Design Manual (2013) catalogue.
5.6.2 Homogenous Sections and Design CBR
Homogenous sections are determined for the project road section (Kofele-Kore-Bekoji) using
AASHTO V1 -1993, appendix J, pavement design manual, “analysis of unit delineation by
cumulative difference method”. The cumulative variables were determined on the CBR values
and plotted against length in km.

The fairly homogeneous section of the project with in the road section, from Km-0+000 to Km-
69+731 is obtained by the main slope variances in graph as shown in table below;
Table 5-16: Laboratory Test Results and CUSUM
No Sample Test Results Diff =
of Station CBR at 95% (Avg CBR - CUSUM
Swell, %
Test (km) of MDD CBR)
1 0+000 3.10 2.36 2.91 2.91
2 3+000 3.30 2.31 2.71 5.62
3 6+000 3.00 2.41 3.01 8.63
4 9+000 5.60 1.57 0.41 9.04
5 12+000 4.00 1.86 2.01 11.05
6 15+000 3.70 1.89 2.31 13.36
7 18+000 5.30 1.62 0.71 14.07
8 21+000 3.80 1.87 2.21 16.28
9 24+000 2.50 2.46 3.51 19.79
10 27+000 6.30 1.37 -0.29 19.50
11 30+000 3.50 1.92 2.51 22.01
12 30+200 9.50 1.43 -3.49 18.52
13 33+000 13.50 1.12 -7.49 11.03
14 36+000 12.00 0.81 -5.99 5.04
15 39+000 3.10 4.74 2.91 7.95
16 42+000 8.80 1.43 -2.79 5.16
17 45+000 11.80 1.56 -5.79 -0.63
18 48+000 4.40 2.65 1.61 0.98
19 51+000 1.10 5.01 4.91 5.89
20 54+000 7.70 0.63 -1.69 4.20
21 57+000 8.20 1.40 -2.19 2.01
22 60+000 6.00 1.31 0.01 2.02
23 63+000 12.80 1.13 -6.79 -4.77
24 66+000 1.20 8.20 4.81 0.04
Average CBR,
6.01
%

Figure 5-12: Analysis of Unit Delineation by CUSUM
From the CUSUM diagram, two uniform sections are identified as listed below; however, there
are pockets sections in the second uniform section that will be treated separately.
Table 5-17: Identified Uniform Sections

Uniform section Length,
Major Soil Formations
(Km-Km) Km
0+000 to Reddish brown medium to high plastic silty clay mixed
1 30.00
30+000 with few gravels
30+000 to Light brown medium to high plastic silty clay mixed
2 39.731
69+731 with pockets of black silty clay soil
Accordingly, the 90 percentile and the design CBR value for each section are determined. The
determination of design CBR for each identified homogenous section of the project is depicted
in the following charts.
Design CBR for the Kofele-Kore-Bekoji road, for the road section from Km-0+000 to Km-
30+000 (Kofele – Kore – Shire) is computed and summarized as shown below;
 Road Section: From Km-0+000 to Km-30+000

 Road Section Length: 30km
 CBR Range = From 2.5% to 6.3%
 Average CBR = 4.01%
 90%ile CBR = 3%
 Design CBR = 3% and

 Subgrade Class = S1 (CBR: <3%)

 Remarks: For the identified problematic (expansive and weak) subgrade section
special treatment (minimum of 1m undercut excavation and replacement with selected
backfill materials with minimum CBR of 5%) is recommended. For list of problematic
subgrade soil section, refer special mitigation measures stated in the Problematic soil
section of the report.
 In order to access the unsuitability of these soils, attention has to be given to those
sections where LL is > 60%, PI is > 30%, CBR swell is > 3% and CBR is < 3%, as
stated in the standard Specification Manual.
 Subgarde class (after improvement) = S3 (CBR: 5% to 7%)
Design CBR for the Kofele-Kore-Bekoji road, for the road section from Km-30+000 to Km-
69+371 (Shire – Bekoji junction) is computed and summarized as shown below;
 Road Section: From Km-30+000 to Km-69+371

 Road Section Length: 39.731km
 CBR Range = From 6% to 13.5% (Excluding the weak pocket sections)
 Average CBR = 10.03%
 90%ile CBR = 7.2%
 Design CBR = 7% and
 Subgrade Class = S3 (CBR: 5% - 7%)
 Remarks: For the pocket problematic soil section, It needs special treatment (minimum
of 1m undercut excavation and replacement with selected backfill materials with
minimum CBR of 5%). For list of pocket sections, refer special mitigation measures
stated in the Problematic soil section of the report
 In order to access the unsuitability of these soils, attention has to be given to those
sections where LL is > 60%, PI is > 30%, CBR swell is > 3% and CBR is < 3%, as
stated in the standard Specification Manual.
5.6.3 Traffic Loading and Design Traffic

The main purpose of the traffic analysis for the design purpose is to estimate the accumulation
of equivalent standard axles over the life time of the designed pavement in the direction of the
heavier traffic and the design traffic loading is the cumulative traffic expected to use the
heaviest loaded lane during the design period.

 Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) of the project road, 2021

The volume of traffic on the project road at the time of the traffic survey (2021) is therefore the
sum of the normal traffic on the road obtained by physical counting (motorized and non-
motorized), the diverted traffic that can shift from the adjacent roads to the new road and the
generated traffic as a result of the new road. The following table gives the ADT on the project
road at the year 2021.
Table 5-18: Annual Average Daily Traffic (ADT) of the Project Road at 2021 Kofele – Shire
Normal Traffic 0 30 34 36 3 72 23 5 5 207
Modal Shift 0 0 13 13 0 1 0 0 0 27
ADT(NT+DT+GT) 0 34 47 60 3 82 26 6 6 265
Table 5-19: Annual Average Daily Traffic (ADT) of the Project Road at 2021, kofele-Kore-Shire
Normal Traffic 0 18 22 10 2 27 9 3 2 94
Modal Shift 0 0 7 7 0 6 0 0 0 20
ADT(NT+DT+GT) 0 21 32 18 2 37 10 3 2 125
 Design Period
The functional classification of the project road is classified as Main Access Road; hence, the
design period is taken as 15 years. For the subject project a design period of 15 years from
the year the road is opened to traffic i.e. (2025 - 2039) is considered for geometric design. The
project road is expected to be opened to traffic in the year 2025.
 Traffic Forecast in the Design Period
Traffic projection has been made for 15 and 20 consecutive years of the design period from
the opening of the road to traffic by applying the growth rates. The detail traffic forcast is
presented in chapter 3
 Design Standard
respect to mid-year traffic volume.
The following shows the design standard of the road sections with respect to mid-year traffic
volume. As it is stipulated in table below Kofele - Kore- Shire has 681 AADT, Shire – Kersa
339 and Shre – Qubsa has 266 AADT. In hindsight the consultant adopted the highest traffic
volume [AADT 681] of the road corridor as design traffic volume for the proposed road project.

Table 5-20: Design Standard
Section Mid-Year (2032) AADT Design Standard Remark

 Traffic Loading
Table 5-21: Equivalency factors, ESA/Vehicle type
S/ L/ S/ M/ H/
Year Car 4 WD Bus Bus Truck Truck Truck T & T
Typical Values 0.00 0.00 0.30 1.50 1.10 3.75 7.75 12.75
The estimated ESAs for a design periods of 15 and 20 years is then computed as shown in
the following tables.
Table 5-22: Estimation of Cumulative Design ESA, for 15 design period
Vehicle Class Car Utility S/B L/B S/T M/T H/T T/T
Composition, % 0 13 18 23 31 10 2 2
AADT, 2025 Opening 0 48 67 87 120 38 9 8
Growth Rate 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.10
Cum No of Vehicle 0.00 495,920.77 692,222.74 862,215.38 1,189,262.59 424,709.22 100,589.03 89,412.47
Equivalent Factor 0.00 0.00 0.30 1.50 1.10 3.75 7.75 12.75
Cum ESA, two dir 0.00 0.00 207,666.82 1,293,323.07 1,308,188.85 1,592,659.59 779,564.96 1,140,008.97
Dir Factor 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Design Cum ESA 0.00 0.00 103,833.41 646,661.53 654,094.42 796,329.79 389,782.48 570,004.48
Design Cum ESA, in 0.00000 0.00000 0.10383 0.64666 0.65409 0.79633 0.38978 0.57000
millions Total ESA = 3.16 Million
Table 5-23: Estimation of Cumulative Design ESA, for 20 design period

Vehicle Class Car Utility S/B L/B S/T M/T H/T T/T
Composition, % 0 13 19 24 34 11 3 2
AADT, 2025
Opening 0 48 67 87 120 38 9 8
Growth Rate 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.10
Cum No of Vehicle 0.00 850,722.28 1,187,466.51 1,453,171.18 2,004,374.04 753,506.51 178,462.07 158,632.95
Equivalent Factor 0.00 0.00 0.30 1.50 1.10 3.75 7.75 12.75
Cum ESA, two dir 0.00 0.00 356,239.95 2,179,756.76 2,204,811.44 2,825,649.42 1,383,081.03 2,022,570.11
Dir Factor 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Design Cum ESA 0.00 0.00 178,119.98 1,089,878.38 1,102,405.72 1,412,824.71 691,540.52 1,011,285.06
Design Cum ESA, 0.00000 0.00000 0.17812 1.08988 1.10241 1.41282 0.69154 1.01129
in millions Total ESA = 5.49 Million

Table 5-24: Traffic Volume and Loading, Summary

Traffic Kofele – Kore - Bekoji
Design Periods Loading (esa,
Trafffic Class CESA Range
in million)
15 Years 3.16 T5 3 - 6 Million
20 Years 5.49 T5 3 – 6 Million
Table 5-25: Traffic Volume and Loading, Recommended
Initial Traffic, Traffic Volume, ESA Recommended

No Name of Section
AADT0 (2025) AADT15 (2039) (in millions) Traffic Class
Kofele – Kore - Bekoji T5

1 377 1206 3.16
(3 - 6 millions)
From the above analysis, the forecasted cumulative standard axle loads of the project for
selected design period equals to 3.16 million for Kofele – Kore - Bekoji road project. Referring
to the available traffic classes, their ESA’s values, falls under T5 traffic class as per ERA
Pavement Design Manual, 2013.
5.6.4 Pavement Thickness Design

From the traffic analysis, derived sub-grade strength class and also based on the prevailing
site condition, pavement thickness is recommended.
From technical point of view, considering the upcoming traffic complexity and functionality to
be consistent with the nearby road network of the project area, prevailing topography and
rainfall conditions, hot mix asphalt surfacing is recommended for Koefele-Kore-Bekoji road
project.
A series of charts are available reflecting the different types of materials that could be used in
the pavement construction. CHART B1; of ERA flexible pavement design Manual 2013, HMA
SURFACING, UNBOUND GRANULAR ROADBASE is referred to design the pavement
structure type. Hence, design of pavement thickness using asphalt concrete surfacing is
presented below;

Table 5-26: Pavement Thickness for Carriageway, Kofele-Kore-Shire Section

Subgrade Class before treatment
S1 (CBR: <3%)
(natural ground)
Subgrade Class after treatment
S3 (CBR: 5% - 7%)
(improved subgrade)
Design Standard DC5
The problematic soil sections (expansive and weak subgrade soils)
should be treated. Minimum of 1m under cut excavation and
Remark
replacement with selected backfill materials with minimum CBR of
5% is recommended.
Table 5-27: Pavement Thickness for Carriageway, Shire – Bekoji Section
Subgrade Class after
S3 (CBR: 5% - 7%)
treatment
Design Standard DC5
Pockets of problematic soil sections (expansive and weak subgrade
soils) should be treated. Minimum of 1m under cut excavation and
Remark
replacement with selected backfill materials with minimum CBR of 5%
is recommended.

Note: Up to 100mm of sub-base may be substituted with selected fill provided that the sub-
base is not reduced to less than the roadbase thickness or 200mm whichever is the greater.
The substitution ratio of sub-base to selected fill is 1 to 1.3.
5.6.5 Design of Shoulder

The shoulder of the road is designed in such a way that it can provide the following uses:
 provision of lateral support for pavement layers
 minimizing risks of moisture ingress in to the load bearing parts of the pavement
 reducing changes in moisture contents in pavement layers
 improving traffic safety by allowing occasional traffic outside the carriage way
Considering the site condition, i.e topography as well as the rain condition, two types of
shoulder surfacing is recommended as show below;
 For Flat and Rolling sections, double surface dressing with 1.5m width on both sides
 For Mountain and Escarpment section, 50mm asphalt concrete with 0.5m width on
both sides
Table 5-28: Recommended Shoulder and Walkway
Carriageway Shoulder Footway
Terrain
Surface Surface Surface
AC Concrete tiles
Flat and rolling DBST (Note 1)
(double layers) (Note 2)
Mountainous
AC Concrete tiles
and AC (Note 1)
(double layers) (Note 2)
Escarpment
Notes:
1) Extend the pavement structure of the carriageway
2) Provide 200mm sub base and 40mm crushed sand bedding.

Table 5-29: Pavement Thickness for Shoulder

Road section Pavement Section for Kofele-Kore-Bekoji road project
treatment (improved S3 (CBR: 5% - 7%)
subgrade)
Surfacing DBST
Pockets of problematic soil sections (expansive and
weak subgrade soils) should be treated. Minimum of 1m
Remark under cut excavation and replacement with selected
backfill materials with minimum CBR of 5% is
recommended.
Table 5-30: Pavement Thickness for Walk way (Town section)
Road section Pavement Section for Kofele-Kore-Arsi road project
treatment (improved S3 (CBR: 5% - 7%)
subgrade)
Surfacing Concrete tiles (60mm)
Crushed sand bedding 40mm
Pockets of problematic soil sections (expansive and
weak subgrade soils) should be treated. Minimum of
Remark 1m under cut excavation and replacement with
selected backfill materials with minimum CBR of 5% is
recommended.

5.7 GEOTECHNICAL DESIGN

5.7.1 General
site survey was made to assess the general condition of the project road with regard to the
geotechnical study of the project.
Hence, this section presents the overall geotechnical assessments of the project that includes
geological setting of the area, seismic condition, slope stability of the area, problematic soil
conditions, design of cut and fills slopes and foundation condition for major crossing structures
as required for conceptual design of the project.
5.7.2 Methodology
The geotechnical methodology used for the concept design includes desk study of remotely
sensed data like google images, reviewing existing information like topographic maps,
geological maps and site visit findings. During the field visit an initial observation of the
geology, topography / geomorphology, the sub-grade, slopes, drainage and construction
materials were made. The stability of the existing slopes was also observed to help in analysis
of slope stability.
A visual observation of bridge foundations on both abutments and river bed was also made to
help in the recommendation for bridge foundation investigation. Coordinates will be measured
using hand held “GPS” instrument. The methodology, design philosophies and standard that
will be adopted during Geotechnical Investigation works, will be based on the selected design
standard.
5.7.3 Investigation and Design Standard

ERA Design Manual 2013 is the main design manuals for all investigations and design
purpose. Specifically, ERA Geotechnical Design Manual, 2013 and ERA Site investigation
Manuals, 2013 are the main design manual that are adopted for all geotechnical study and
preparation of the corresponding Geotechnical reports. For bridge investigation and
foundation recommendation, AASHTO LRDF (recent edition) will be consulted. Regarding the
technical specification, ERA Standard Technical Specification and Methods of Measurement
for road works, 2013 is adopted.

5.7.4 Geology and Geomorphology of the project area
The geology of the area describes the composition of the rock encountered along the project
routes and the processes by which they change over time. The geological formation of the
Kofele – Kore – Bekoji junction road comprises mainly two types of geological formation
(nazreth series and chilalo formations).
Referring to the general geological map of Ethiopia (Source: Geological survey of Ethiopia,
Ministry of Mines, second edition, 1996) and supplemented by specific site findings, the
general geological setting of the project area has been described in detail.
The geological setting of the project area is presented in Figure below whereas simplified
geological formation along the project route is presented in the table below
Table 5-31: Legend for the Geological Descriptions

Group Symbol Descriptions
Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rock Nazret Series
Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rock Chilalo Formation
According to the mentioned Geological map, the regional geological formation of the project route corridor
of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji JUnction, is composed of Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rock , with specific
of Nazreth series (Nn) and some portion of Chilalo formation (Nc and Ncb).
Table 5-32: Simplified Regional Geology
Length,
Project Station Geological formations
km
0+000 to 46+500 46.50 Nazreth series (Nn)

Kofele – Kore – Bekoji
46+500 to 51+100 4.60 Chilalo formation (Nc)
JUnction
51+100 to 69+710 18.61 Chilalo formation (Ncb)
From the overall site findings, it is possible to observed that, majority of the local geology of the route
alignment is covered by high plastic silty clay which is the residual and weathering effect of the parent
tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rock.

Figure 5-13: Geology of the project area (Kofele – Kore- Bekoji road)
(Source: Geological survey of Ethiopia, Ministry of Mines, 2nd edition, 1996)
According to the mentioned Geological map, the regional geological formation of the project
route corridor of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji Junction, is composed of Tertiary volcanic and
sedimentary rock , with specific of Nazreth series (Nn) and small portion of Chilalo formation
(Nc).
From the overall site findings, it is possible to observed that, majority of the local geology of
the route alignment is covered by high plastic silty clay which is the residual and weathering
effect of the parent tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rock.
5.7.5 Seismic and Tectonic Setting of the Project area

Earthquake is a common phenomenon that frequently occurs with different magnitudes in
most parts of the world. In Ethiopia the afar depression and the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER),
which is part of the East African Rift is where these earthquake epicenters were aligned.

Among them Awasa earthquake, Kara Kore earthquake, Serdo earthquake, Wendo Genet
earthquake, Langano earthquake and Dobigraben earthquake were the significant ones and
some of them were fatal. The current volcanic activities and the resulting geologic
phenomena’s in Afar and Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) are good manifestations for tectonically
dynamic nature of the zone.
Figure 5-14: Earthquake record in the Horn of Africa region from 1900 to 2010
According to Seismic Hazard Map of Ethiopia as per Ethiopian Standards based on Euro
Norms (ES EN 1998:2015), the Seismic hazard map is divided into 5 zones and the project
site, Kofele – Kore- Bekoji junction is located within seismic zone 3 with ground acceleration
ranging from 0.10 to 0.15. In this seismic sensitive zone, it is generally the case that extreme
events of load combination, taking into account the seismic load effects, may govern the major
drainage structures design.
Therefore, the stability of the structures against seismic effects and appropriate seismic design
considerations shall be taken into account by following the seismic design procedure as
specified in ERA Bridge Design Manual or AASHTO LRDF Bridge Design Specification and
other relevant specifications.

Figure 5-15: Ethiopia Seismic Hazard Map in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (ES EN
1998:2015)
Table 5-33: Bed rock acceleration ratio α0 as per ES EN 1998:2015
Zone 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.20 0.15 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.00
5.7.6 Back slope formations
During site survey, a back slope formation of the alignment route has been inspected and as concept
design finding, the back slope materials with possible soil classification are summarized.
Generally, major part of the back slope formations is covered with soil, having pockets of
weathered rock as summarized below;
Table 5-34: Black slope formation for Kofele – Kore – Bekoji junction
Soil Extension Survey
Major Materials Formations Back slope
From to
0+000 55+400 Reddish brown medium to high plastic silty clay soil
55+400 56+200 Light grey to brown moderately weathered rock Weathered rock
56+200 61+300 Reddish brown medium to high plastic silty clay soil
62+400 63+500 Black silty clay soil Soil
64+900 69+731 Reddish brown sandy silty clay mixed with few gravels soil

Picture 5-20: Light grey to brown moderately weathered rock back slope formation @ Km-56+000
Picture 5-21: Light grey to brown moderately weathered rock back slope formation @ Km-62+000
5.7.7 Slope Stability Along the Route Alignment
The overall site condition of Kofele – Kore – Bekoji junction road shows most of the natural
slopes along the alignment route are stable under current condition, except very few local
sections where slide of the top overburden materials was shown due to excess erosion.
However, the current stability will be expected to be disturbed by slope excavation of the
construction activity. Such excavation combined with other influences such as rainfall,
materials weathering, blasting, external loading and toe erosion will also trigger the slope
failure.

As topography is the major indictor of the anticipated slope instability, the geotechnical
hazards are rated with respect to topography in addition to the other geological factors. From
the terrain classification analysis of the project, some part of the proposed alignment route traverse
through mountainous section such as from Km-30+040 to Km-30+600, Km-41+600 to Km-45+100, Km-
53+800 to Km-57+800, Km-59+300 to Km-61+600 and Km-63+600 to Km-65+900. And in such
mountainous sections, possible deep cuts is expected during construction to attain the required design
standard (DC-%) of the project road, and will possibly result unstable slopes or landslides on sections
where a natural slope is over steep or where cut slopes in weathered rock and soil encounter ground
water. Hence, during excavation and construction of the project, proper design slope and appropriate
protection measures that will address the specific site condition is mandatory.
5.7.8 Design of Slopes

ERA’s Site Investigation Manual and Geometric Design Standard manual (2013) as well as
the new ERA Geotechnical Design Manual-2013 give slopes based on slope height, material
type and past construction practices and experience.
Design of Cut slopes and the recommended slope ratios will be adopted to Kofele – Kore-
Bekoji road project from ERA Manual, 2013 basically adding some foot notes on the ERA back
slope ratio recommended given in Geometric Design Manual, 2013 (ERA Geometric Manual,
table 6.1) to consider the deep cut excavation (greater than 7m) and benching spacing.
Table 5-35: Slope Ratio Table – Vertical to Horizontal (V: H)
Height of Side Slope (V:H)

Material Type Back Slope
Slope Cut Fill (Note 5)
Earth Soil/ Decomposed 0.0 m-1.0 m 1:3 1:3
rock/ Colluvial materials 1.0 m-2.0 m 1:2 1:2
(Note 1) Over 2.0 m 2:3 2:3
Sound and Intact Rock 0.0 m-2.0 m 4:5 2:1
(Note 2) Over 2.0 m 1:2 1:1 4:1
Weathered Rock (Note 0.0 m-2.0 m 2:3 2:1
3) Over 2.0 m 1:1 3:1
Black-cotton (expansive 0.0 m-2.0 m 1:6 -
clay) (Note 4) Over 2.0 m 1:4 -
Note

(1) When the cut depth is greater than 7m, provide back slope of 1(V):1(H)
in combination with minimum bench of 3m wide at 7m vertical interval
to ensure the stability of the slope.
(4) Move ditch away from fill at least 4m
5.7.9 Problematic Soils

In order to access the unsuitability of these soils, attention has to be given to those sections
where LL is > 60%, PI is > 30%, CBR swell is > 3% and CBR is < 3%, as stated in the standard
Specification Manual.
From site investigation finding of Kofele – Kore -Bekoji road, it is possible to observe that
siginifcant portion of the alignment route is traversed along weak and unsuitable subgrade
soil, and such section needs special treatment as mitigation measure.
Table 5-36: List of Problematic Soil sections for Kofele-Kore-Bekoji project
Length, Material
From To Remark
km Description
0+000 4+500 4.5 Reddish brown medium to high plastic silty clay Low CBR and high plasticity
Light brown to grey high plastic silty clay mixed

4+500 7+200 2.70 Low CBR
with decomposed rock
Reddish brown medium to high plastic silty clay

7+200 30+000 22.80 Low CBR
mixed with black cotton soil
Dark brown medium to high plastic silty clay mixed

38+450 41+100 2.65 Low CBR and high swell
with pockets of black cotton soils
47+350 53+310 5.96 Reddish brown silty sandy soil Low CBR and high swell

Length, Material
From To Remark
km Description
Low CBR, high plasticity and

62+420 63+500 1.08 Black cotton soil
high swell
Low CBR, high plasticity and
64+900 66+000 1.10 Black cotton soil
high swell
Black cotton soil mixed with pockets of reddish Low CBR, high plasticity and
68+800 69+731 0.931
brown pastic soil high swell
Total 41.721
There are several mitigation measures being followed in practice. Some of them are site
specific and require judicious selection to encounter the damaging effects of the swell
potential. Considering the availability of sufficient borrow materials, excavation and
replacement method is appropriate mitigation measures recommended for the project.
The treatments required for those sections with expansive soils characteristics are “excavation
and replacement method” and recommendation is depend on fill height as summarized below;
o Where the finished road level is designed to be less than 2m above the ground
level, remove the expansive soil to a minimum depth of 1000mm over the full width
of the road, or where the finished road level is designed to be greater than 2m
above the ground level, remove the expansive soil to a depth of 1000mm below
the ground level under the unsurfaced area of the road structure or where the
expansive soil does not exceed 1m in depth, remove it to the full depth.
o Stockpile the excavated material on either side of the excavation for subsequent
spreading on the fill slopes so as to produce as flat a slope as possible.
o The excavation should be backfilled with a plastic non-expansive soil of CBR value
greater or equal to 5% and compacted to a density of 93% modified AASHTO.
5.7.10 Erodible Soils

During site assessment, some eroded sections were encountered on the project road especially
longitudinal gullies along the project road, and on both sides approach of structures due to presence of
steep gradient. Severe eroded section has been observed on the black silty clay (black cotton soil) from
Km-55+700 to Km-55+900 and from Km-62+300 to Km-63+250.

Picture 5-22: Eroded black silty caly soil, from Km-62+300 to Km-63+250
Considering the project road site condition (which is medium to high plastic light weigh soil), the following
mitigation measures are recommended as remedial measures;
o If gullies are already formed, they need to be backfilled layer by layer with borrow materials.
o The side drains (longitudinal ditches) in these sections shall be lined irrespective of the
longitudinal slope.
o Turn outs shall be constructed in short possible intervals to avoid concentrated flow of water.
Secondary ditches and check dams shall be constructed to dissipate the energy of storm water
running parallel to the road.
o Proper protection works shall be constructed at culvert inlets and outlets and at approaches.
5.7.11 Preliminary Foundation Investigation, and Recommendation

Foundation recommendation refers to the determination of the bearing layer and depth,
allowable pressure on the bearing layer and type of foundation that could be adopted safely
and economically. Factors such as the load to be transmitted to the foundation and the
subsurface condition of the foundation have been considered in selecting the foundation type.
Foundation conditions of major crossing sites along the project route have been briefly
assessed in conjunction with soil and construction material survey. These are crossing sites
with total openings of 6m and above believed to be major crossings that require the
construction of bridge structure.

Table 5-37: List of Major Structures and Site inspection, Summary

Bri. Proposed Remark from site inspection
Station
No Span
It is recommended to provide a new structure by replacing
Br-1 31+895 1x14
the existing structure
It is recommended to provide a new structure by replacing the
Br-2 39+220 1x12
existing structure
Br-3 41+300 1x8 It is newly proposed structure on the re-aligned section
42+363 It is newly proposed structure on the defined stream

Br-4 1x16
Existing bridge hydraulically sufficient and in good condition

Br-5 55+670 1x8
and proposed to be kept with required maintenance measure
Existing slab bridge is under width and proposed to be
Br-6 64+450 1x16
Replaced
Accordingly, preliminary site inspection and foundation investigation were tried to conduct on
the abutments locations of the new and existing structures. Visual inspection of the foundation
formations has been conducted in bridge structure’s locations. The allowable bearing pressure
was considered from presumptive values provided in standard codes and literatures. In this
regard, reference is made to AAHSTO LRFD 2007.
Table 5-38: Preliminary Foundation Recommendation, Summary
Foundation Materials Foundation Presumptive
Bri.
Station Depth, m Bearing
No
Capacity
Light grey highly weathered rock (in to silty clayey 2.5m below the
Br-1 31+895 gravel( mixed with boulders (both sides)
770 KPa
lowest river bed
Reddish brown medium to high plastic silty clay 3m below the

Br-2 39+220 with few gravels (both sides)
190 KPa
lowest river bed
Soil gravel matrix, light brown silty clay soil mixed 2.5m below the
Br-3 41+300 570 KPa
with few gravels (both sides) lowest river bed
42+363 Reddish brown silty clay soil mixed with few 3m below the
Br-4 gravels (both sides)
190 KPa
lowest river bed

Light grey to brown moderately weathered rock 2m below the

Br-5 55+670 overlaid by dark brown silty clay soil (both sides)
770 KPa
lowest river bed
Light grey to brown slightly to moderately 2m below the

Br-6 64+450 weathered rock (both sides) 960 KPa
lowest river bed
As the above selected major crossings are bridge structures, and the load transfer is extending
minimum up to twice of the proposed width (2B) from footing level, and for this, for purpose of
evaluation and confirmation, deep investigation using core drilling should be conducted during
construction stage to investigate all the geotechnical layers & foundation conditions within the
influence zone formations. Hence, deep foundation investigation using core drilling is
recommended for all bridge locations during construction stage.
5.8 STRUCTURAL DESIGN

5.8.1 Field Reconnaissance
Field reconnaissance is required to obtain first-hand information regarding the condition of
existing structures and to look for alternative options for drainage crossings Accordingly, the
project team has collected relevant data to compile the concept deign report.
5.8.2 Condition and Description of Existing Drainage Structures

There are several minor drainage structures along Kofele Kore Bekoji including medium span
bridges.
After inspecting each road alignments, only the bridges are proposed to be retained after
analyzing visual inspection. However, unless the decision is supplemented by hydraulic
capacity adequacy, the bridges might even be replaced with a new one.
On the other hand, the slab culverts and pipe culverts are proposed to be replaced with a new
structure.
5.8.3 Structural Design Standard

ERA’s bridge design manual shall be used, along with AASHTO LRFD bridge design
specification 2013 (or latest), for the structural design for the above bridges.
As far as geometrical standards are concerned, standard width of 8.92m (0.80+7.32+0.8m)

shall be used for all bridges located in rural section of the road. In addition, for bridges with in
5km radius of town sections, the total width of the bridge shall be10.32 m including 1.5m walk
way on both side of the bridge shall be adopted. For bridges within woreda or Kebele seat,
the bridge deck width shall have similar width with the approach roadway cross section.

Sufficient free board shall be provided from hydraulic point of view and appropriate finished
road grade shall be provided considering the optimum approach road grade from geometric
requirement. Thus, whichever design requirement governs shall be applied.
The structural computation of substructure and superstructure components of the river bridges
shall be performed as per ERA’s bridge design manual.
ERA’s Standard drawings of minor drainage structures including, but not limited to, Slab RC
box, and RC pipe culvert shall be used.
5.8.4 Foundation Investigation:

In parallel with the hydrologic/hydraulic investigations, preliminary foundation investigation is
conducted at the identified crossing sites to assess the foundation material and the possible
foundation level of the abutment and pier positions. During field investigation, the condition of
the river, the river channel width, the riverbank material type and height, the approach to the
bridge and the foundation material type are properly assessed. All new major drainage
structure requires foundation investigation.
5.8.5 Design of Retaining Wall:

The analysis of retaining wall shall give due allowance in the determination of effective earth
pressure for the ground slope behind the wall. Retaining walls are usually provided on
locations with the following geometrical and topographical conditions.
 On cut sides of roads where the recommended safe cut slope is

flatter than the natural cross fall for a very long distance from the
edge of the road.
 On fill sides where the natural cross fall is steeper than the
recommended fill slopes of embankments.
 On fill sides where the fill slope stake is in streams where the
embankment toe is subject to scouring due to existing streams.
 On cut sides where sliding or rock fall is anticipated.
 On fill sides and downstream of drainage structures in areas of

steep cross.
 As wing walls of bridges and approaches.

The project requires masonry retaining walls on few sections of the road side embankments.
Accordingly, appropriate measurement was taken and the quantities of class ‘B’ masonry
retaining wall volume is estimated.
5.8.6 Material Properties:

Structural materials considered for design and recommended for the construction of minor and
major drainage structures of the project are described as follows;
a) Concrete
The classes of concrete used for the different component of minor and major culverts are
taken in accordance to ERA’s 2013 Standard Technical specification requirement. The
recommended grades of concrete and specified strengths are given in the table as follows –
Classes of concrete
Recommended uses
Concrete Grade fck (MPa) (150mm cube)
C30/20 30 All Reinforced concrete
elements
C35/20 35 Precast RC Pipes
C20/40 20 Plain concrete footing
and lined drains
C15/20 15 Blinding for box /slab
culverts Class “A”
bedding for pipes
Cyclopean mass Mixture of mass of stones To improve foundation
concrete (if and class 20 concrete in 3:1 soil beneath foundation
needed) ratio by volume respectively structure as shown on
the drawing
b) Reinforcement
ERA’s 2013 Standard Technical Specification is considered while selecting grades of
reinforcement bars to be used for design and construction of minor and major drainage
structures. Reinforcing bars considered for the design are stated as below,
Grades of Reinforcement used for minor and major Structures
Diameter of Grade of Min. Modulus Recommend

Reinforceme Steel yiel of for
nt bar (mm) d Strength, Elasticity, Es
fy (MPa) (MPa)
< 12mm Grade 40 300 200,000 Precast RC
Pipe Culvert
>12mm & < Grade 40 300 200,000 Bridges, Box
20mm and Slab
culvert

> 20mm Grade 60 420 200,000 Bridges, Box

and Slab
culvert
Minimum concrete cover indicated in ERA’s bridge design manual is considered for the design
except that the absolute minimum value is 35mm.
c) Stone Masonry
According to ERA Standard Technical Specification - 2013, stone masonry is divided into three
classes. For this project implementation, it is recommended to use Class “B” masonry grades
for pipe culvert end structures, substructures of slab culvert, retaining walls and substructures
of Bridges.
d) Gabions
The procurement of materials for gabions cages is recommended to comply with the
requirement stated in ERA’s 2013 standard technical specifications
All wires used in the fabrication of gabions shall be galvanized in accordance with the
provisions of section ERA’s 2013 Standard Technical Specifications. The geo-textile filter
fabric which is to be used along with the gabions shall meet the requirements of the same
specification.
5.9 PRELIMINARY PROJECT CONSTRUCTION COST

5.9.1 Costing Approach
Project costs are estimated considering the preliminary engineering design of the road
and its components. Based on the preliminary investigations and design carried out the
existing road conditions have been characterized and scope of planned project is
determined. During the preliminary design work items are identified and quantified,
taking into consideration experience of similar projects and applying engineering
judgment.
5.9.2 Unit Costs

The current unit costs of all items are studied considering both on-going and recently
completed projects. It is observed that unit costs used in different projects located in
different locations of the country vary. This could have resulted from the different project
locations. However, it was also noted that unit rates quoted by contractors for the same
project shows a considerable variation. This could be as a result of commercial strategies
of each bidder and in no way depict the market value of the item. Further, it was noted
that the unit rates of the bill items show an increase from time to time.

Current completed and construction projects near to the project has been considered for
unit rate computations. On the basis of the characteristics of the selected project,
average rates have been computed and applied for the project road which are believed
to be reasonably accurate for the preparation of the project cost estimates for the
purposes of feasibility study.
5.9.3 Cost Components Provided on Percentage Basis

Most cost work items are estimated based on the quantified items that form a basis from
the preliminary engineering design of the project road. These include work items like site
clearance, drainage, earthworks, pavement layers, structures and ancillary works.
In addition to these, a 4% physical risk and 15% VAT are considered.
5.9.4 Project Construction Costs

Following the above outlines, the construction cost of the project road is estimated. The
summary of the estimated cost is presented in Table below
Table 5-39: Grades of Reinforcement used for minor and major Structures
Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and Arsi Negele – Bilalo Junction Road

Project Kofele Kore Bekoji
SUMMARY OF PRICED BILL OF QUANTITY AC DBST
Total Amount in Total Amount
Description
Birr in Birr
SERIES 1000 : GENERAL 107,324,065.62 107,324,065.62
SERIES 2000 : SITE CLEARANCE 8,226,535.62 8,226,535.62

SERIES 3000 : DRAINAGE 198,948,867.37 198,948,867.37
SERIES 4000 : EARTH WORKS 468,951,760.01 502,730,549.45
SERIES 5000 : SUBASE AND ROADBASE 162,185,718.70 139,475,732.26
SERIES 6000 : BITUMINOUS SURFACING 311,986,980.32 168,554,642.23
SERIES 8000 : STRUCTURES 40,409,133.03 40,409,133.03
SERIES 9000 : ANCILLARY WORKS 46,914,436.65 46,914,436.65
SERIES 11000 : DESIGN,EXPLORATION AND
SURVEYING 4,579,206.70 4,089,461.62
Total of Series (1000 to 11000) A 1,349,526,704.03 1,216,673,423.86
RISK BASED ESTIMATE
PHYSICAL RISK [4%] C 49,504,937.27 44,210,395.86

B:SUB TOTAL OF RISK BASED ESTIMATE D 49,504,937.27 44,210,395.86

TOTAL OF BASE COST ESTIMATE AND RISK C 1,399,031,641.30 1,260,883,819.72
VAT [15% of C] D 209,854,746.19 189,132,572.96
Grand Total [C+D] E 1,608,886,387.49 1,450,016,392.68
Cost Per Killometer 23,216,253.79 20,923,757.47

6 ECONOMIC EVALUATION
The purpose of economic analysis is to gauge the viability of the investment on the proposed
upgrading of the project road duly taking into account the various benefits likely to accrue to
the road users as well as the different types of stakeholders in the project influence area.
The investments as well influence the condition of pavement over time and road maintenance
cost. HDM IV model predicts traffic speed`s and consumption of the Road User Effect (RUE)
components, such as fuel, tyres, etc. Multiplying these by the unit costs of the individual
components gives the RUE over time comparing the cost out puts from various investment
alternatives allows assessment of the relative merits, cost savings and benefits of the different
alternative using economic principles.
6.1 Objectives and Overview

The objective of the economic evaluation is to establish the value for money of the proposed
project as currently laid down using clearly defined inputs and specified criteria of viability as
agreed with the client and project financier. In hindsight, the consultant adopted a recent data
for the project, as will for the evaluation of methodology follows internationally established best
practice incorporating the use of the foremost software applicable to the current project.
The project has been sub-divided into two sections each having its own component evaluation
to identify the relative sources of costs and benefits while sensitivity tests have been carried
out on each of the major input variables to determine the robustness of the project’s viability.
The economic evaluation has the following principal inputs:
 Base year traffic
 Existing road inventory and condition data plus climatic data
 Vehicle fleet and operating cost data
 Economic and traffic growth forecasts
 Project works and maintenance costs
 Project evaluation parameters
The principal outputs of the evaluation are indicators of economic viability:
 Net Present Value (NPV);

 Net Present Value/Cost (NPV/C);
 Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR).
The minimum requirement of a project in terms of economic viability is to produce a positive
NPV and an EIRR greater than the discount rate. In general, however, it is necessary to
achieve more convincing results than the minimum requirements because of competing
projects and limited funds.
6.2 Economic Evaluation Methodology

This is the main component of the feasibility study in which the economic indices used to
determine the viable option of the road project were established based on comparisons
between costs and benefits.
The required input data and information for the evaluation of project road were collected
through field visits conducted in the project area, and secondary data collected from the

concerned different agencies. Moreover, various time series and other data were also
extracted from recent related studies and sources such as Statistical Abstracts from CSA and
other publications of Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED), during the
desk study. In addition, government offices and private companies such as the main vehicle
and tyre dealers, fuel and lubricant distributors were also consulted.
The observations and findings during the reconnaissance fieldwork indicated that the level of
existing traffic and the prospect for future development in the project influence area could allow
the use of the HDM IV analytical Model in the economic evaluation of the proposed project.
The Highway Development and Management tool (HDM 4) Model has been used in the
economic evaluation comparing the existing road without any intervention or the base case
and the proposed intervention or project case. The approach for the economic feasibility study
of the proposed road was based on the evaluation of costs and benefits, comparing the base
case or the without-project case against the with-project case scenario.
One of the finding during field survey is traffic survey result. It is analyzed in traffic analysis
section. In the analysis the normal, generated6 as well as diverted traffic implemented
separately in an applicable place. Accordingly the traffic is considered in the HDM IV model to
evaluate economic viability.
6.3 Inputs for Estimation of Vehicle Operating Costs

Vehicle Operating Cost and Fleet Characteristics are the major inputs considered in this
section.
6.3.1 Vehicle Operating Cost
The major inputs required for the Model to estimate the VOC are the prices of vehicles, tire,
fuel and lubricants, maintenance and crew cost, annual overhead and interest rate, passenger
working and non-working time practiced by ERA, current feasibility studies and market prices
are briefly described below and presented in the following.
6.3.2 Cost Unit Price of Vehicles

The unit prices of vehicles and its related components have been collected from the market.
However, since the taxes on various vehicles are different, the conversion factor of 0.83 for
changing the financial prices to economic prices has been adopted. This is with the view to
ensure representativeness of the types of fleets that would roughly match prevailing stream of
traffic along Ethiopian roads in general and project under reference in particular. Meanwhile
information on unit price for different classes of motorized vehicles, assumed representative
of the road project were collected by the consultant as CIF, Addis Ababa, applicable rates;
custom duties, and variety of other taxes, and procedures for calculation were reviewed from
ranges of respective sources.
6
The price elasticity of demand for transport is set to 1.0, for all vehicles, meaning that a one percent
decrease in transport costs yields a one percent increase in generated traffic due to reduction in
transport costs.

In converting the financial prices to economic values, these tax components are removed, as
they represent transfer payments introducing distortion on to real resource values.
Consequently, only the dealers' commission or the profit margins are shadow priced by the
standard conversion factor based on National Economic Parameters and Conversion Factors
for Ethiopia (2008, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development) to arrive at the final
economic prices of the vehicles.
Table 6-1: Unit Prices of Vehicles
Country
Vehicle Description/ Financial
Category Vehicle Type
Model Capacity Built
Price
CF7 Economical
Price
Supplier
of Origin
Local Car
Car Mitsubishi Attrage 5 seats 2020 Japan 1,600,000 0.83 1,328,000
Dealer
2020 Hyundai MOENCO Sh
4WD 1.5 EX 6 seats 2020 Indeia 3,050,000 0.83 2,531,500
Creta Co
TOYOTA HZB50L- MOENCO Sh
S. Bus 23seats 2020 Japan 5,500,000 0.83 4,565,000
Coaster BGMRS Co
BF 120 HAGBES
L. Bus Daewoo Bus 62seats 2020 Korea 7,500,000 0.83 6,225,000
CBU PLC
HFC1035K, AbayTech &
S.T ruck JAK-Light Truck 2 ton 2020 China 2,400,000 0.83 1,992,000
LHD TradeSC
Eicher10.80 Nyala Motors
M.Truck Eicher Truck 5 ton 2020 India 4,000,000 0.83 3,320,000
Cargo Sh Co
Daewoo 4x2 HAGBES
H. Truck F4CBF 10 ton 2020 S. Korea 4,600,000 0.83 3,818,000
Cargo T. PLC
IVECO 6x4 Cargo
T.Trailer AT380T38H 37 ton 2020 ITALIA 11,000,000 0.83 9,130,000 AMCE
T.
Source: Vehicles Current Market Prices
6.3.3 Unit Price of Tires

Tires used in Ethiopia are both of local and import origins. Data on sales prices of tyres and
tubes were collected from major tire wholesalers / retailers. The market prices of different sizes
of tyres for variety of brands was weighted to obtain average financial values which was later
adjusted by a conversion factor suggested by the Planning and Development Commission
(PDC), to obtain the economic prices.
Table 6-2: Price of Tires for ERA Classified Vehicles
Vehicle Financial Cost (in ETB) Economic Cost (in ETB) Supplier
Car 20,000 1,428,800 Local dealer
4WD 48,000 2,134,740 Local dealer
Small Bus 32,000 1,594,428 Local dealer
Large Bus 80,000 2,752,544 Local dealer
Small Truck 48,000 1,322,580 Local dealer
Medium Truck 64,000 2,328,128 Local dealer
Heavy Truck 240,000 4,513,076 Local dealer
Truck & Trailer 576,000 6,486,000 Local dealer
Source: Current Market Price Collected [Tire Wholesalers and Retailers]
7
Economic Conversion Factor

6.3.4 Labour Cost: Maintenance Labour

Maintenance labor cost is estimated on the basis of formal and informal interviews of vehicle
maintenance and repairs garages. The maintenance labor has been worked out using an
average monthly salary, yearly working weeks decreasing working days of annual leave with
payment. Then hourly financial labor cost is estimated and shadow wage rate of 0.83 has
been applied on this to arrive at an economic wage per hour.
6.3.5 Labour Cost: Crew Cost

The crew cost has also been worked out for each vehicle based on vehicle’s annual working
hours, monthly basic salary of drivers and helpers as well as their monthly allowance.
6.3.6 Price of Fuel and Lubricants

Fuels used on roads are petrol and diesel. Different prices regulated by the government is
reviewed based on evolving international price of fuel, and are charged on to consumers
based on geographic locations of consumption. Consultant estimate based on price related to
the project and converted to economic price.
6.3.7 Vehicle Prices

Information on vehicle prices and their physical characteristics has been collected from the
major auto dealers. As to vehicle utilization, cost of crew and maintenance labour, the relevant
information was gathered from major truck/ bus companies, travel agencies and auto garages
(repair/ service stations). These market prices have been converted into their economic terms
using the national economic parameters referred to above. The present estimates for
economic cost of vehicles, as computed for the present study. Details of vehicle characteristics
and utilization are set out in Table below. The estimates of value of time adopted for the
present study based on working and non-working time are set out in Table below as well for
crew, Fuel, lubricants, maintenance and labour cargo.
Table 6-3: The value of time in Economic Unit Costs (Eth Birr)
Vehicle Resources Car 4WD S/B L/B S/T M/T H/T T/T
Tyre Price (Birr) 11,155 26,494 52987.2 15936 6623.4 14118.4 15936 26,061
Fuel (Birr) 21 21 21 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87
Lubricants (Birr) 149 149 149.4 224.1 224.1 261.45 261.45 261
Maintenance Labour (Birr/hr) 79 79 79.35 92.58 92.58 105.54 105.54 106
Crew Wages (Birr/hr.) - 12 83.05 83.05 113.33 145.71 145.71 146
Annual Overhead (ETB) 23,814 66,150 165375 165,375 165,375 198,450 198,450 198,450
Annual Interest Rate (%) 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23
Time Value
Passenger Working Time 3 26 31.6 37.9 45.5 45.5 68.2 171
Passenger non-working time 1 1 0.52 0.52 0.79 0.79 0.79 1
Cargo - - - - 0.13 0.3 0.36 1
Source: Consultant [Current Market Prices and Other ERA Feasibility Studies,

6.3.8 Vehicles’ Physical Fleet Characteristics

Each vehicle has its own fleet characteristics related to the above descriptions of VOC used
in HDM IV inputs. This is consolidated in the following Table as they have formed inputs to the
Model.
Table 6-4: Vehicles’ Physical Fleet Characteristics
Vehicle Type Car 4WD S/B L/B S/T M/T H/T T/T
Number of Wheels 4 4 4 6 4 6 10 18
Number of Axles 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5
Utilization
Annual Run (km) 20000 40000 50000 60000 50000 60000 65000 65000
Working Hours 500 900 1600 1800 1600 1800 2100 2100
Average Service Life (yrs.) 12 12 15 15 12 15 15 15
Private Use (present) 85 20 15 - - - - -
Passengers (no.) 3 3 20 45 2 2 2 2
Work Related Trips 15 80 85 100 100 100 100 100
Source: ERA Practice and Recent Feasibility Study
6.4 Project Alternatives

The approach for the economic feasibility study of the proposed roads was based on the
evaluation of costs and benefits, comparing the base case/ the “without project” case or the
do minimum case against the “with-the project” scenario (AC and DBST) to the selected route.
The appropriate input data and information for the road has been collected through field visit
conducted in the project area and secondary data. The economic analysis of the road project
is undertaken to understand the importance of the project under study. The project has been
designed to meet a certain level of traffic demand. This design in turn has an impact on the
cost of the project. However, economic analysis brings the two together–costs and benefits
and weighs them to assess the returns on the investment made.
Combination of above improvement options and maintenance strategies, formulated various
project alternatives for the economic analysis in HDM IV model. The details of alternatives
considered are as follows;
Alternative 0: Base Case (Do- Minimum):
Maintain the existing Gravel rural road without any upgrading. A maintenance strategy for
existing road is routine maintenance every year as required to maintain accessibility without
upgrading the existing rural gravel road.
Alternative 1: Up Grade to Asphalt Concert:
This alternative includes upgrading the project road to paved road standards with AC. It
substitutes Asphalt Concert with 50mm thick asphalt concrete, laid by using regular method
of mechanical paving machine. As of other alternatives, subsequent to the improvement,
maintenance strategy assigned to intervene within 5-8 years, except routine maintenance
planned to practice on a yearly base.

Alternative 2: Up Grade to Double Surface Treatment (DBST):

This alternative includes upgrading the project road to paved road standards with DBST. It
substitutes with 25mm thick asphalt concrete, laid by using regular method of mechanical
paving machine. As of other alternatives, subsequent to the improvement, maintenance
strategy assigned to intervene within 3-5 years, except routine maintenance planned to
practice on a yearly base.
The approach for the economic feasibility study of the proposed road is based on the
evaluation of costs and benefits, comparing the base case/ the “Without project” case or the’’
do minimum case’’ against the “With-the project” scenario for Double Surface Treatment
(DBST) and AC to the selected route.
Further, the proposed road project function as main access road, thus 15 years has been used
in the analysis, and recommended for implementation.
6.5 Road Works

6.5.1 Improvement Options and Costs
Road works comprise spectrum of maintenance strategies as well as the initial improvement
strategies. The project improvements comprise new construction of earth road and upgrading
deteriorated gravel road to paved higher standard and widening to seven meter carriageway
standards.
 Specific Characteristics of the Project
Specific characteristics of the project in construction periods, investment phasing, base and
opening year are specified and described below:
 Construction Period
Construction period has been scheduled for three years of beginning of 2022-end of 2024.
 Discount Rate
The minimum discount rate/the opportunity cost used for projects in Ethiopia according to the
National Economic Parameters and Conversion Factors for Ethiopia (2008, Ministry of
Finance and Economic Development) to arrive at the final economic prices of the vehicles is
10.23%.
 The Project Life

Most road projects for trunk and link roads are assumed to have a 20 year lifetime based on
functional classification and traffic volume. In the current road, 15 years project life will serve
as a main access road the case applied to the road opening year 2025 to 2039.
 Project Opening Year
The project opening year is defined as the first full year the completed project is open to traffic.
The first full year of operation in this road is 2025.

 Investment Phasing
Based on construction period investment phasing of the project has been scheduled three and
half to three years, in 40% 2022, 40 % in 2023, and 30% in 2024.
Table 6-5: Investment Cost of Project Road Project [ETB]
Pavement Financial Cost (ETB) CF Economic Cost (ETB)
Project Road Upgrade
Options Project Cost Cost Per Km Project Cost Cost Per Km
Kofele - Kore- AC 1,608,886,387.49 23,216,253.79 0.83 1,335,375,701.62 19,269,490.65
Shire - Bekoji DBST 1,450,016,392.68 20,923,757.47 0.83 1,203,513,605.92 17,366,718.70
Source: Consultant Estimate, 2021
6.5.2 Maintenance Strategies

In addition to the initial improvement options, the maintenance strategies for each alternative
include routine maintenance and periodic maintenance. The road maintenance activities to be
carried out are as per ERA practice and current maintenance cost considers Maintenance
Needs Assessment and Updating of Road Financing Study of Ethiopia (2011).
The maintenance standards for gravel and bituminous pavements include both responsive
and scheduled operations. These are as per the standard practice followed in such
improvement projects. Frequency of periodic maintenance depends on various factors, such
as, type of surface, type of material used during construction, traffic using the road,
geographical location, terrain type, climate, etc. The frequency of periodic maintenance varies
from 3 to 10 years; 3-4 years in case of gravel roads; around 5 years in case of DBST; 5-7
years in case of AC; and 8-10 years in case of Rigid Pavement (RP) (ERA, 2011). For the
project under reference, the maintenance strategy for routine maintenance has been set as
every year, while periodic maintenance yearly base for Ac and every five/ ten year respective
to the type of maintenance implemented, as well Rigid Pavement has adopted the same way
used as an input for the Analysis.
6.5.2.1 Gravel Maintenance-Without Project Case

 Routine Maintenance - maintain the specified road regularly every year to keep the
accessibility of the road
6.5.2.2 AC Roads Maintenance for with Project case
 Routine Maintenance - Maintain the specified road regularly every year to keep the
accessibility of the road.
 Periodic Maintenance - Overlay every seven year with preparatory routine works of
patching and edge repair.
 Asphalt Concrete Overlay - Consists of bulk paving an existing tack-coated
asphalt road or primed aggregate base layer, with hot asphaltic concrete produced
at a central batch plant. A uniform compacted layer thickness of 50 mm is normally
specified for the project under study.
 Patching - It is to repair isolated potholes that have formed in the surface of an
asphalt concrete pavement. Removal of failed material and application of tack or
prime coat and bitumen to cut faces.
 Edge Repair- Repair to edge breakages as specified.

Costs of the above stated maintenance strategies have been worked out at financial prices
and converted to economic prices as shown in the following Table.
6.5.2.3 DBST Roads Maintenance for with Project case

 Routine Maintenance - Maintain the specified road regularly every year to keep the
accessibility of the road
 Periodic Maintenance - Reseal for every five year with preparatory routine works of
patching, edge repair and crack seal
 Reseal - Apply high volatile content bituminous rejuvenation product to reseal
and rebind pavement surface material.
 Patching – Permanent repair of isolated potholes that have formed in the
surface of surface dressed pavement. Removal of failed material and
application of tack or prime coat.
 Edge Repair - Repair to edge breakages as specified.
 Crack Sealing - Sealing/filling of individual, wide cracks using hot penetration
of grade bitumen in order to seal it against the ingress of water.
Costs of the above stated maintenance strategies have been worked out at financial prices
and converted to economic prices as shown in the following Table.
Table 6-6: Maintenance Cost

Maintenance Financial Economic
Description Work Items Unit Remark
Standard Cost (ETB) Cost (ETB)
Gravel
Do-Minimum Routine
(Without Project Km 110,250 117,287 Every Year
Case 0) Maintenance
Routine Km 126,000 134,043 Every Year
Maintenance
Paved
DBST
Resealing M2 237 252 Periodic

Roads(With
Project Case Pothole Patching M2 270 287
Edge Repair M2 159 169 Preparatory
Routine Works
Crack Sealing M3 252 268
Routine KM 157,500 167,553 Every Year
Maintenance
Paved Overlay M2 261 278 Periodic
AC
Roads(With
Project Case ) Potholes M2 270 287
Patching Preparatory
Routine Works
Edge Repair M2 159 169
Source: Adjusted by the consultant for the Analysis Based on Current Cost of ERA Asset Management
6.6 Economic Appraisal

As described above in the methodological framework, the economic appraisal has been
carried out by comparing the costs and benefits of the road upgrading project throughout its
design life under two mutually exclusive scenarios namely: “without the project” and “with-the
project”.
As to the project benefits, savings in vehicle operating cost that is expected due to the
proposed road improvement works constitute major quantifiable benefit for the project. Other
quantifiable project benefits include: users savings, (travel time saving and reductions in
transport fare), residual value of capital works at the end of economic life of the road, arising
due to the “with-the project case” as against the “without the project case”.

The project cost and benefit streams for each of the alternatives under with the project
scenario have been computed for each year of the project life. Each of these cost/benefit
streams were compared with the corresponding streams of Base Case Alternative (without
the project scenario) and economic internal rate of returns (EIRRs) have been worked out
using discounting technique. In addition, net present value (NPV) has been computed at
10.23% rate of discount; opportunity cost of capital used for public project appraisal in
Ethiopia.
The economic appraisal has been carried out for the entire project road (i.e. Kofele - Kore-
Shire - Bekoji) HDM IV model output containing summary results of economic appraisal,
detailed cost and benefit streams are presented in Annex. Summary results of the economic
appraisal are presented in Table 6-7
Table 6-7: Result of Economic Evaluation
Sections Options NPV B-CR8 EIRI
AC 1,647.355 2.440 18.5
DBST 838.366 1.798 17.4
Source: consultant
From the economic appraisal indicators set out in table above, both the alternative 1 (AC
Pavement) and alternative 2 (DBST) are economically viable; the EIRRs being much higher
than the cut-off rate of 10.23%.
6.6.1 Sensitivity Analysis

Economic viability of the road upgrading project crucially depends on robustness of the project
cost estimates and traffic forecasts. In actual practice, these estimates are likely to vary from
their actual values. It is in this context, an attempt has been made to gauge the extent of
impact of variations in project costs and benefits on the economic viability of the project. To
this end, the following sensitivity scenarios have been considered.
 20% increase in the capital cost of the project (Scenario I)

 20% decrease in project benefits (Scenario II)
 Scenario I and Scenario II taken together (Scenario III)
Results of the sensitivity analysis below Table shows for Alt -1 (AC) and Alt - 2 (DBST) indicate
that the project is economically viable even if the project cost increases by 20% or project
benefits decrease by 20% or both taken together.
Table 6-8: Results of Sensitivity Analysis
AC DBST
NPV B-CR EIRR NPV B-CR EIRR
1. 20% increase in Capital Cost (Scenario I) 1,422.075 2.038 16.6 633.016 1.492 15.0
2. 20% decrease in Project Benefits (Scenario II) 1,097.132 1.959 16.2 502.245 1.478 14.7
3. Scenarios I and II combined (Scenario III) 865.677 1.632 14.4 405.416 1.323 13.3
Source: Result of HDM IV Analysis, 2021
8
Benefit Cost Ratio

6.6.2 Conclusion and Recommendation

The economic evaluation shows that the proposed road upgrading project is economically
viable on both Asphalt Concrete (AC) and Dense Surface Treatment (DBST) both sections.
The HDM IV Model Software is used for the analysis of the study. Based on this the result
illustrates accordingly the EIRR of 18.5% for AC and 17.4 DBST options for the upgrading the
proposed road Kofele - Kore- Shire - Bekoji respectively. The Net Present Value of the
proposed road project also indicates the economic viability of the project options have NPV of
1,647.355 million ETB for AC and 838.366 million ETB for DBST options Kofele - Kore- Shire
- Bekoji respectively.
The consultant also considered a sensitivity analysis to measure the responsiveness of the
proposed road project in the case of project analysis for the change in cost, benefit and both
cost and benefit. The sensitivity analysis results show the proposed upgrading road project for
both sections AC and DBST improvement options are also viable for 20% increase in cost,
20% decrease in benefit, 20% increase in cost and 20% decrease in benefit at a time.
The economic evaluation with the EIRR, NPV, and BCR, shows the AC pavement option is
higher than DBST pavement options. Accordingly, the Consultant recommends the AC option
for this road project.

Annex 1: Minutes of Meeting

Annex 2: Hydrology and Hydraulics

Annex 3: Typical Section

Annex 4: HDM4 Output

Annex 5: Comment Response Matrix

Final Kofale-Kore-Bekoji Feasibility Report

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Consultancy Services for Package 6: Concept Design, Risk Assessment, Feasibility Ethiopian Roads Administration

Beles Consulting PLC i

5.1 TOPOGRAPHICAL SURVEY ....................................................................................... 64

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5.8.2 Condition and Description of Existing Drainage Structures .................................. 124

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Figure 1-1: Accessibility and road Network of project Road........................................................... 9

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Table 0-1: Project Description ..................................................................................................... xiv

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Table 5-15: Summary of Identified Construction Materials, Kofele-Kore-Bekoji ........................... 99

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Annex 1: Minutes of Meeting

Annex 2: Hydrology and Hydraulics

Annex 3: Typical Section

Annex 4: HDM4 Output

Annex 5: Comment Response Matrix

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AASHTO American Association of State Highways & Transportation Officials

ADT Average Daily Traffic

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LCCA Life cost Cycle Analysis

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The purpose of this the Feasibility Study report is to provide:

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Table 0-1: Project Description

Package 6: Kofele – Kore – Bekoji and Arsi Negele

Climate Classification C3-C4 Weina Dega to Dega

TRAFFIC DATA AND ANALYSIS

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Table 0-2: Summary of Normal Traffic – Kofele - Kore- Shire

Table 0-4: Summary of Normal Traffic Shire – Qubsa

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Table 0-6: Traffic forecast for Shire – Kersa

Table 0-7: Traffic forecast for Shire- Qubsa

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Table 0-8: Design Standard for sections of the Project Road

Section Mid-Year(2032) AADT Design Standard Remark

Station Control Point Coordinate Description

2 25+000 798664 Kore

3 29+000 799730 Shire

3 29+000 799730 Shire

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Table 0-10: Route alternatives in section B

Alternative 1 29.7 Shire - Qubsa(Bekoji Junction)

Alternative 2 39.2 Shire - Kojikatara

Alternative 3 37.86 Shire - Kersa

Table 0-11: Summary of MCA for Section B

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Table 0-12: Summary of Identified Construction Materials

Table 0-13: Summary of Proctor and CBR test results

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 Safer routes for pedestrians and cyclists

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Table 0-15: Pavement Thickness for Carriageway, Shire – Bekoji Section

Preliminary Foundation Investigation, and Recommendation

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Table 0-16: Result of Economic Evaluation