AN OPTIMIZED SIR MODELING FOR ANALYZING THE SPREADING RATE OF

OMICRON COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Idowu Samuel Oluwatobi

CSC/16/9856

Email: Samueloluwatobi83@gmail.com, Samtob9@gmail.com

Computer Science Department

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Infectious diseases are those diseases that can be transmitted from person to person or from
organism to organism and are caused by microbial agents. Examples of such these include
common cold, cholera, chicken pox etc. However, when a disease spreads in a given population,
it splits the population into three classes (Martcheva, 2015). In December 2019, the Chinese
government informed the rest of the world that a virus was rapidly spreading throughout China.
A few months later, it had detrimentally spread to several other countries. The United States
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identified a seafood market in Wuhan as the
center of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID19), which is caused by severe
acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported a case
in Thailand on 13 January 2020, the first case to be identified outside China. On 16 January
2020, Japan confirmed its first case of the novel coronavirus, followed by South Korea on 20
January. As of today, most countries around the world have been affected. Numerous studies
have been conducted to predict the spread of the virus in order to seek the best prevention
measures. The omicron Covid, is the fifth wave of this pandemic the world health organization
(WHO) reported a case on November 22, 2021, it is not yet clear whether Omicron is more
transmissible (e.g., more easily spread from person to person) compared to other variants,
including Delta. The number of people testing positive has risen in areas of South Africa affected
by this variant, but epidemiologic studies are underway to understand if it is because of Omicron
or other factors. Therefore, the Government are imposing lockdown and asking people to put on
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face mask and maintain social distancing, quarantine oneself etc., not to contact the virus. To
detect the spreading rate mathematical modeling of virus spread is very essential. These
mathematical models are very helpful to the healthcare professional to get an idea about the
disease spread and subsequent action to control the disease spreading further. There are different
mathematical models are proposed to fit the disease spread. Among the various model’s popular
models are Susceptible-Infected (SI), Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS), Susceptible-
Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) and susceptible-
Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) models.

In this research, a mathematical framework for detecting the corona virus spreading rate
accurately using popular SIR model. In order to detect the spreading rate a steady state and
stability analysis is performed and also introduces optimization control strategy for susceptible
and infected population. An extensive simulation result is performed to justify the theoretical
finding. In addition, better accuracy and early detection rate is compared with other existing
models. Finally, a real time data has been taken to fit the model for omicron Covid-19 spreading
rate.

1.2 LITERATURE REVIEW

1.2.1 An SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities
Argha. M (2020)
MOTIVATION
The effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel
COVID-19 disease. To stop to spread of COVID-19 in the communities
OBJECTIVES
This research investigates the time evolution of different populations and monitor diverse
significant parameters for the spread of the disease in various communities, represented by
countries and the state of Texas in the USA. The SIR model can provide us with insights and
predictions of the spread of the virus in communities that the recorded data alone cannot.
METHODOLOGY

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Develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to
investigate its spread within a community. The case study methodology was chosen for this
research by SIR mathematical modelling.

LIMITATION
The SIR model used here is only a simple one and thus, the predictions that come out might not
be accurate enough, something that also depends on the published data and their trustworthiness.
However, as the model data show, one thing that is certain is that COVID-19 is not going to go
way quickly or easily.
CONCLUSION
Mathematical modelling theories are effective tools to deal with the time evolution and patterns
of disease outbreaks. They provide us with useful predictions in the context of the impact of
intervention in decreasing the number of infected-susceptible incidence rates. In this work, we
have augmented the classic SIR model with the ability to accommodate surges in the number of
susceptible individuals, supplemented by recorded data from China, South Korea, India,
Australia, USA and the state of Texas to provide insights into the spread of COVID-19 in
communities. In all cases, the model predictions could be fitted to the published data reasonably
well, with some fits better than others. For China, the actual number of infections fell more
rapidly than the model prediction, which is an indication of the success of the measures
implemented by the Chinese government. There was a jump in the number of deaths reported in
mid-April in China, which results in a less robust estimate of the number of deaths predicted by
the SIR model. The susceptible population dropped to zero very quickly in South Korea showing
that the government was quick to act in controlling the spread of the virus.

1.2.2 Application of SIR epidemiological model: new trends. Helena Sofia R (2016)
MOTIVATION
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR
(susceptible-infected susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to
situations related with marketing, informatics or even sociology, several are the fields that are

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using this epidemiological model as a first approach to better understand a situation. To stop to
spread of COVID-19 in the communities

OBJECTIVES
The basic transmission model is analyzed, as well as simple tools that allows us to extract a great
deal of information about possible solutions. A set of applications - traditional and new ones - is
described to show the importance of this model.
METHODOLOGY
Mathematical models are a simplified representation of how an infection spread across a
population over time. Most epidemic models are based on dividing the population into a small
number of compartments. Each containing individuals that are identical in terms of their status
with respect to the disease in question. In the SIR model, the three compartments are:
a. Susceptible (S): is the class of individuals who are susceptible to infection; this can
include the passively immune once they lose their immunity or, more commonly, any
newborn infant whose mother has never been infected and therefore has not passed on
any immunity;
b. Infected (I): in this class, the level of parasite is sufficiently large within the host and
there is potential in transmitting the infection to other susceptible individuals;
c. Recovered or Resistant (R): includes all individuals who have been infected and have
recovered. The case study methodology was chosen for this research by SIR
mathematical modelling
LIMITATION
The prediction might not be accurate enough, depends on the published data and their
trustworthiness
CONCLUSION
Deterministic models applied to the study of infectious disease have a long tradition. The
importance to predict the evolution of a disease, its impact in population and in the health
systems human and material resources has a long concern to human population. However, with

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the increasing of new technologies and the growth of the interdisciplinarity, new researchers are
become interested in epidemiological models to apply in other fields. In this paper a selection of
application from different fields was presented where the SIR models were used. This exposition
is not exhaustive, but is a selection of recent areas that are been developed and where the
epidemiological mathematics is a possible response to describe reality.
1.2.3 CoronaTracker: worldwide COVID-19 outbreak Data Analysis and prediction
CoronaTrackercommunity Research Group (March, 2020)
MOTIVATION
To assist the government and authorities to disseminate verified articles, provide update to the
situation and good hygiene to people
OBJECTIVES
The main aims are to predict and forecast COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries through
predictive modelling. The model helps to interpret patterns of public sentiment on disseminating
related health information, and assess political and economic influence of the spread of the virus.
METHODOLOGY
Real-time data query is done and visualized in our website, then the queried data is used for
Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) predictive modelling. We utilize SEIR
modelling to forecast COVID-19 outbreak within and outside of China based on daily
observations. We also analyze the queried news, and classify the news into negative and positive
sentiments, to understand the influence of the news to people’s behavior both politically and
economically.
LIMITATION
The SEIR prediction can only be obtained once the outbreak has been successfully contained.
CONCLUSION
COVID-19 is still an unclear infectious disease, which means we can only obtain an accurate
SEIR prediction after the outbreak ends. The outbreak spreads are largely influenced by each
country’s policy and social responsibility. As data transparency is crucial inside the government,
it is also our responsibility not to spread unverified news and to remain calm in this situation.
The CoronaTracker project has shown the importance of information dissemination that can help

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in improving response time, and help planning in advance to help reduce risk. Further studies
need to be done to help contain the outbreak as soon as possible.

1.2.4 Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Using SIR, SEIQR, and Machine Learning
Models: Australia, Italy, and UK CasesIman Rahimi (2021)
MOTIVATION
To analyze and predict the COVID-19 Pandemic Using SEIQR mathematic modelling. The high
rate of death and infected citizen in Australia, Italy and UK.
OBJECTIVES
In this report, a short analysis focusing on Australia, Italy, and UK is conducted. The analysis
includes confirmed and recovered cases and deaths, the growth rate in Australia compared with
that in Italy and UK, and the trend of the disease in different Australian regions.
METHODOLOGY
Mathematical approaches based on susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases and
susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, and recovered (SEIQR) cases models are proposed
to predict epidemiology in the above-mentioned countries.
LIMITATION
The authors did not account for human behaviors or control measure in the models.
CONCLUSION
COVID-19 is a family of coronaviruses that has affected the lives of billions of people
worldwide. The first section of this paper presented a short analysis of COVID-19, focusing on
its effect in Australia, Italy, and UK. Specifically, the analysis gives a comparison of the
confirmed cases and death rates between Australia, Italy, and UK and among the different states
of Australia.
Mathematical approaches based on SIR and SEIQR were proposed to predict the epidemiology
in Australia, Italy, and UK. Since the classic forms of SIR and SEIQR are deterministic, an
improved version based on parameter optimization is suggested to improve the prediction. The

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results were compared with the logistic function and Prophet algorithm, and are summarized as
follows:
a. The comparison between the classic SIR model and real data showed a significant gap.
However, initializing the parameters of the SIR model significantly improved the
prediction.
b. The classic SIR model worked best for UK but was not suitable for Australia based on
RMSE values.
c. The logistic function was a good model for UK with an R2 score of 0.97, while the scores
for Australia and Italy were 0.67 and 0.95, respectively.
d. The best RMSE value belonged to the Australian cases (confirmed and deaths).
e. Parameter optimization for the SIR and SEIQR models significantly improved their
prediction accuracy.

1.2.5 Mathematical modelling using improved SIR model with more realistic assumptions
Hamid A. Adamu (2019)
MOTIVATION
The assume the total population to be fixed during the flu epidemic by ignoring births,
immigrations and deaths due to non-flu causes, also assumed a completely homogeneous
population with no age spatial or social structure. They study revealed that, if the contact number
of the disease is small enough then no epidemic can develop and vice-versa.
OBJECTIVES
The understanding of the role interaction and economic activity in the spread of diseases. This
research improves on the literature in epidemiology, which has developed models of disease
diffusions dating back to kermack and mckendrick (1927) by providing some factors that are
more realistic factors that not being accounted for in the sir model. Modelling with realistic
assumptions. Formulate the needs for mathematical modelling for infectious virus.
METHODOLOGY
The mathematical modeling methodology in building the new model by modifying the existing
SIR model through incorporating assumptions that are more realistic. The existing SIR model
give good analysis epidemic diseases but considering more realistic factors to the model will

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give better results. The equilibrium and stability analysis of the model will be examined. The
eigenvalues of the improved model have been analyzed. The numerical scheme of the model will
be implemented and the corresponding simulation will be executed to draw some interpretations.
LIMITATION
The extent to which a disease exists or spreads in a given population depends on the degree and
frequency of contact between susceptible individuals and disease agents. The research was
limited to mathematical modelling alone.
CONCLUSION
The modified version of mathematical model proposed and studied in this paper been proved
more practical than that by David and Lang, as it gives a better insight into the dynamics of
infectious diseases and consequently enhances struggle against the spread of those diseases.
However, it also revealed some remarkable result. Under high transmission rate disease spread in
the host population but with massive effective treatment given to the infected individuals, the
improved model shows a drastic reduction of length of time taken to achieve eradication. The
modified version of the model can be used to study and describe both epidemic and endemic
diseases unlike the model by David and Lang which can only study the spread of those diseases
that persist for short period of time i.e., epidemic. This study also proved beyond doubt that,
under low transmission rate infection spread less, therefore good medical care and effective
treatment to the infected individuals dramatically lower the transmission rate and hence making
eradication possible in finite time.

1.2.6 Analysis of COVID-19 spread in south korea using the SIR model with time
dependent parameter and deep learning. Hyeontae J.O. (2020)
MOTIVATION
The research is motivated due to the high rate of spread of COVID’19 in South Korea,
worldwide. The case study research method was adopted, A structured questionnaire was
designed, literature review.
OBJECTIVES
This study aims at analyzing the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) spread in South Korea
using the susceptible-infected recovered (SIR) model. We collect the data from Korea Centers

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for Disease Control & Prevention (KCDC). We assume that each parameter in the SIR model is a
function of time so that we can compute important parameters, such as the basic reproduction
number (R0), more delicately. Using neural networks, we propose a method to find the best time-
varying parameters and the solution for the model simultaneously. Moreover, using time-
dependent parameters, we find that traditional numerical algorithms, such as the Runge-Kutta
methods, can successfully approximate the SIR model while fitting the COVID-19 data, thus
modeling the propagation patterns of COVID-19 more precisely. To identifies various steps,
issues concerning the spread of COVID-19 in south Korea.
METHODOLOGY
Using the SIR modelling method to model problem as forward inverse (S, I, R) and parameter (β,
γγ) in the model using deep learning.
LIMITATION
The study initially focused on south Korea with time dependent parameters.
CONCLUSION
Using our time-dependent parameters β_net, and γ_net, we found that traditional numerical
algorithms, such as the Runge-Kutta methods, can successfully approximate the SIR model while
fitting the COVID-19 data. Moreover, we find that the parameters β_net, and γ_net is good
enough to fit the model and the data, provided the convergence of the RK4 method to the
solution. At present, 100 years after the Spanish u, substantial amounts of information are
exchanged in real time, with analysis results coming out in real time from all over the world,
making the world a gigantic clinical trial. Therefore, it is important for governments to analyze
the collected data more rigorously to obtain insights from them, and create sophisticated models
that reflect real-time data to guide their policies and curb the COVID-19 spread. Unlike previous
studies, this study was able to model the propagation patterns of COVID-19 more precisely.

1.2.7 Measuring and preventing COVID-19 using the SIR model and machine learning in
smart health care. M.M. Kamruzzaman (2020)
MOTIVATION

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The main primary aim of this study was evaluating the model for providing smart health care that
are able to predict the onset of pandemics. The strategy of early detection and strict monitoring
must continue to apply.
OBJECTIVES
This paper proposes a model for predicting COVID-19 using the SIR and machine learning for
smart health care and the well-being of the citizens of KSA. Knowing the number of susceptible,
infected, and recovered cases each day is critical for mathematical modeling to be able to
identify the behavioral effects of the pandemic. It forecasts the situation for the upcoming 700
days. the proposed system predicts whether COVID-19 will spread in the population or die out in
the long run.
METHODOLOGY
The study implements SIR and SIR-F models with Machine learning (ML) algorithms for time-
series forecasting are statistics and computer science, where calculations are derived from the
data. Scikit-Learn is a machine-learning library for Python. It is also a community- driven project
with powerful regression tools for fitting curves to the table of suspected and recovered cases.
ML can assist in establishing overarching information on the pandemic and in forecasting the
advancement of infections. the various epidemic models can be evaluated with COVID-19 data
using the model parameter estimation package CovsirPhy. SIR-F is a customized SIR-derived
ODE model. ML algorithms and present both mathematical and numerical analyses.
LIMITATION
The prediction error of real data and the SIR models.
CONCLUSIONS
The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the models for providing smart healthcare that are
able to predict the onset of pandemics like COVID-19. this study proposes and implements SIR
and SIR-F models with ML algorithms and presents both mathematical and numerical analyses
and simulation results, the SIR epidemiological model is one of the oldest and has the most
significant consequences of biological science. It contains the most significant highlights of the
study of the virus disease transmission to be specific “Susceptible,” “Infected,” and “Recovered”
people. the SIR model is applied to predict the data. Based on the SIR model, the pandemic will
most probably be controlled by June 2021. the hyperparameters are presented in the various

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tables, and RMLSE is the primary accuracy metric to define the prediction error of real data and
the SIR models. the reproductive rate was the most significant parameter for forecasting whether
there will be a pandemic.

1.2.8 Susceptible infective recovered for the spread of infectious in a given population
over time David and lang (2001)
MOTIVATION
The effects of birth and death due to other causes were not take into consideration. The infected
individuals that die due to the disease.
OBJECTIVES
Assume the total population to be fixed during the flu epidemic by ignoring births, immigrations
and deaths due to non-flu causes, also assumed a completely homogeneous population with no
age spatial or social structure. They study revealed that, if the contact number of the disease is
small enough then no epidemic can develop and vice-versa.
METHODOLOGY
The mathematical model SIR susceptible of infective recovered.
LIMITATION
The model is only for a given population at a given time.
David and Lang (2001) developed a mathematical model (SIR) i.e., Susceptible-Infective-
Recovered for the spread of infectious in a given population over a time. However, there are
some realistic factors that not being accounted for in this model and this paper is proposed to
address some of these factors. These factors include: -
i.) The effects of birth and death due to other causes were not taken into consideration.
ii.) The infected individuals that die due to the disease were not considered
iii.) The general health and nutrition status of the populations, which may have a positive
effect on the likelihood of epidemic occurring, were not considered.

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1.3 REASEARCH MOTIVATION

The motivation to optimized SIR modeling for analyzing the spreading rate of omicron covid-19
pandemic are;

a. The primary aim of this research study is to evaluate the model for predicting the spread
rate of the pandemics. The strategy of early detection and strict monitoring must continue
as well.
b. The effectiveness of the modelling approach is due to the spreading of the novel COVID-
19 disease. To stop to spread of COVID-19 in the country (Nigeria).
These challenges brought the motivation to analyze and assist the government and authorities to
disseminate verified articles, provide update to the situation and good hygiene to people.

1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

The major issues to be addressed by this project work are outlined below;

a. This study aims to find out SIR model aims to predict the number of individuals who are
susceptible to infection, are actively infected, or have recovered from the infection at any
given time.
b. This study seeks to examine the extent, range, and method to control the spreading of
omicron COVID’19

1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLODY

The mathematical modeling methodology in building the new model by modifying the existing
SIR model through incorporating assumptions that are more realistic. The existing SIR model
give good analysis epidemic diseases but considering more realistic factors to the model will
give better results. The equilibrium and stability analysis of the model will be examined. The
eigenvalues of the improved model have been analyzed. The numerical scheme of the model will
be implemented and the corresponding simulation will be executed to draw some interpretations.
The study will be carried out in several phases;
i. Data will be collected from the NCDC Akure branch.

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 ii. The data will be analyzed and preprocessed in order to avoid any duplicate or missing
values
iii. Numerical tests will be performed using python and executed

Data Collection Preprocessing Prediction

Source: Clean data Paraments setting

NCDC, WHO. Analysis Fit The Models
Applyalgorithm

Figure flowchart of the research process

Proposed Mathematical Model:

In the proposed work, we used the efficient Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to detect the
spreading rate and accurately fit the corona virus disease infection. Using this model, the
spreading rate is found out for the entire population with the help of various parameters such as
spreading rate, recovery rate, birth rate and death rate.

Model Description

The various states of the model are

i. Susceptible – In this state through epidemiology a contagious person is a member of a

population, at risk of being infected with the disease.

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 ii. Infected – In this state the susceptible person is prone to disease and gets completely
infected with the disease.

iii. Recovered – In this state the individuals are given appropriate vaccination and recovered
from the disease.

The number of individuals in each of these classes changes with time. That’s they are functions
of time t and the total population size (N) is the sum of the sizes of these three classes:
N(t)= S(t) + I (t) + R(t)
S (t) = number of susceptible at time t.
I (t) = number of infected at time t.
R (t) = number of recovered at time t.
N (t) = total population at time t.
The number of individuals who become infected per unit of time in epidemiology is called
incidence, and the rate of change of the susceptible class is given by S (t) = −incidence

Figure 1.0 Scheme of fraction of the SIR model

The SIR model shows how a disease spreads through a population. The equations of the SIR
model are as shown below:

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 ds
=− βIS(1)
dt
dI
=βIS−γI ( 2)
dt
dR
=γI (3)
dt
where:
 S is the number of susceptible individuals at time t;
 I is the number of infected individuals at time t;
 R is the number of recovered individuals at time t;
 β and γ are the transmission rate and rate of recovery (removal), respectively

1.5 EXPECTED CONTRIBUTIONS TO KNOWLEDGE

At the end of the research work the primary aim of this study was to evaluate the models for
providing smart healthcare the main study proposes and implements SIR Modeling for
Analyzing the Spreading Rate of Omicron Covid-19 Pandemic and presents both mathematical
and numerical analyses and simulation results.

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REFERENCES

i. BryanT.G.Stefan, M.& Mark,C.(2005) Mathematical modeling of Infectious. Diseases

Dynamics and control. Institute for Mathematical Sciences, National University of
Singapore Regional Emerging Diseases Intervention (REDI) Centre. Singapore.

ii. Epidemiology Sample Activity (2003) Modeling the spread of Diseases.

iii. Wikipedia contributors. Spanish u | Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2020. [Online;
accessed 7-April-2020].

iv. T. M. Balkew, “The SIR model when S (t) is a multi-exponential function,” MS thesis,
East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN, USA, 2010.

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