BAYE’S THEOREM

Example:

Problem:
1. The Wayne Manufacturing Company purchase a certain part from suppliers A, B, and C.
Supplier A supplies 60% of the parts, B 30%, and C 10%. The quality of the parts varies
among the suppliers, with A, B, and C parts having 0.25%, 1%, and 2% defectives rates,
respectively. The parts are used in one of the company’s major products.

a. What is the probability that the company’s major product is assembled with a defective
part? Use Bayes’ theorem to solve.

Ans. P(D) = P(AΠD)+ P(BΠD)+ P(CΠD)

= 0.0015+0.003+ 0.002
= 0.0065

b. When a defective part is found, which supplier is the likely source? Ans. Supplier B

Company Supplies Defective Non-defective

A 60% .25% 99.75%
B 30% 1% 99%
C 10% 2% 98%

Let D- defective
Let ND- non-defective

P(A)= .60
P(B)= .30
P(C)= .10

P(D|A) =.0025, P(ND|A) =.9975

P(D|B) =.01 P(ND|B) =.99
P(D|C) =.02 P(ND|C) =.98

P(AΠD) = P(A) P(D|A) = 0.0015

P(AΠND) = P(A) P(ND|A) = 0.5985

P(BΠD) = P(B) P(D|B) = 0.003

P(BΠND) = P(B) P(ND|B) = 0.297

P(CΠD) = P(C) P(D|C) = 0.002

P(CΠND) = P(C) P(ND|C) = 0.098

Solve for the posterior probability :

P(D) = P(AΠD)+ P(BΠD)+ P(CΠD)

= .0015+.003+ .002
= 0.0065

P(A|D) = P(AΠD)/ P(D)

= 0.0015/0.0065
= 0.2307 or 23.07%

P(B|D) = P(BΠD)/ P(D)

= 0.003/.0065
= 0.4615 or 46.15%

P(C|D) = P(CΠD)/ P(D)

= 0.002/.0065
= 0.3076 or 30.76%