Market

AGRI

Global Research Limited

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Prices Settles Higher On Short Covering

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Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

J E E R A(JUNE)

G U A R S E E D ( J U LY )

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

JEERA SLUMPS ON HIGHER ARRIVALS

Expert
Opinion

GUARSEED FALLS ON SUBDUED DEMAND

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Bearish trend in Jeera futures continued in the last week. Futures started the week on flat to lower note on subdued demand. However, higher arrivals at spot market pulled down the prices during the week. Nonetheless, towards the closing prices took small recovery but overall weak trend weighed on prices and futures ended the week on a negative note. The Jeera futures are forecast to continue the bearish trend on profit selling next week. Overall trend is likely to remain sluggish amid prevailing poor domestic demand. However, prices might take smart recovery towards the closing of the session. Arrivals at spot market of Unjha were reported around 8,000 bags (Each bag= 55Kg.). According to trade sources, cumin production in Syria and Turkey are expected around 40,000 and 15,000 MT which might create pressure on Indian prices in near term. As per data released by Spices board, Jeera exports fell by 35% to 32,500 million tons from 49,750 million tons during same period last year. According to derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest have shown a negative move. This indicates the price decline is being caused by disgruntled long position holders being forced to liquidate their positions. All the sellers have sold their positions, now they may create fresh buying positions at lower levels.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guar seed and gum futures traded negative last week. The prices across the spot market remained low as the substantial increase in arrivals from stocks this week pressurized the prices. The concerns regarding monsoon continued to have negative impact over the market sentiments. Guar seed and gum futures are expected to trade negative for the next week. The arrivals of stocks being higher this week are likely to keep the prices downside. The favorable progress of monsoon over Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh is favoring its timely arrival in Rajasthan. Some concerns about the decrease in the acreage are possible during the current crop year. The industry sources are projecting the acreage to decrease to 2.7 million ha in comparison to 3.0 million ha during the last year. The down fall might be limited on these acreage concerns affecting the market sentiments. Decrease in price, volume and open interest indicates bullish trend for the next week. Guar futures might trade range bound with negative bias owing to forecast of normal and timely arrival of monsoon over Rajasthan which has raised hopes of improved sowing this season. Prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs. 3150-3400 per qtl levels in the short term. Robust export demand for Indian Guar gum from Oil companies may support Guar prices in the long term (September). However, in the next 2 months (July August), rainfall distribution over Northwest India would be an important factor to be watched for as the price movement during this period mainly depends on monsoon.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Profit selling High arrivals

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week initially Jeera was bearish but price was not able to sustain below 13800 level and we saw good short covering coming on the last day of the week. For the next week Jeera has resistance at 14000 and support at 13650.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains above the level of 14000 then we can expect the level of 14200, and if it sustains below 13650 then we can see the level of 13500.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Increase in arrivals Subdued demand

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Guarseed was initially bearish but it has good support at 3260 levels and price was not sustain near it, later in the week we saw good buying coming at lower levels. For the next week Guarseed has resistance at 3360 and support at 3260.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 3360 we can see the level of 3410, and below 3260 it can touch the level of 3220.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 14921 14418 14149 13915 13646 13412 12909

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3583 3460 3402 3337 3279 3214 3091

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Weekly Chart

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

SOYABEAN ( J U LY )

C H A N A ( J U LY )

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

SOYBEAN EXTENDS DOWNTREND ON SUBDUED DEMAND

Expert
Opinion

CHANA EXTENDS UPTREND ON RISING DEMAND

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Indian Soybean futures extended the bearish trend last week. The fast approaching sowing season and possible chances of higher acreage is affecting the market sentiments. The drop in the domestic buying as the demand for seed consumption is declining is exerting pressure on the prices. The weather recovery and the concerns of the improved sowing in U.S supported the fall. NCDEX Soy bean futures are projected to be on a recovery mode during the initial days while the overall trend is down side. The activities across the domestic spot markets are very sluggish with lean season for arrivals and subdued demand. The seed consumption demand is also gradually declining across the spot markets as the farmers are busy with land preparation activities. The congenial weather conditions are also supporting the prospective sowing across India which is affecting the market sentiments. CBOT market closed positive with the spillover support from the grains complex ahead of the USDA supply demand report. Tighter supplies predicted in the cereals supported the Soybean prices also to gain. The Soybean supplies are expected to have neutral effect on the market. However the progressing crop planting and the possible normal productions anticipated from U.S is affecting the sentiments. Thus e-CBOT is currently trading down on back of the news that the Chinese imports during June declined by 1.2 million tons to 5 million tons. The concerns of the higher exports in the first 10 days of the current month is supportive for the palm oil prices; while the higher production possibilities might limit the gains. Following the international markets the Indian markets might be on initial recovery mode on the previous continuous fall.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Spot prices of Chana futures extended gains of the previous week and settled higher on Thursday. Demand from the local stockists is supporting Chana prices. There are reports that area under Pigeon peas or Tur in India is expected to loose ground to cotton in Western Maharashtra, the major producer of the protein crop. Tur accounts for over half of the total kharif pulse output. Decline in the area is largely on account of less profit earned this season. The area under tur stood at 1.34 million hectares in 2010/11. Production of Chana as well as Pulses in the current crop year is estimated higher at 7.38 million tonnes and 17.29 million tonnes respectively. Planning Commission has estimated that the demand for pulses in the country during the period 2011-12 is 19.11 million tonne. With the commencement of the south west monsoon sowing of Kharif pulses has started in some parts of the country. Area under tur, moong and urad till June 1, 2011 is around 218 hectares 1081 hectares and 332 hectares respectively in A.P. In Uttar Pradesh moong has been sown in 1.12 lakh hectares and Urad in 37000 hectares while in Gujarat and Bihar moong has been sown over 31,000 hectares and 40,000 hectares respectively. Chana prices in the intraday may extend the gains of the previous week owing to better demand. Also, seasonality pattern reveals that Chana prices normally bottom out during mid May when arrivals reach their peak, and gradually starts rising when arrivals decline. Thus, following a seasonality pattern, any significant decline in the prices may be treated as a good buying opportunity expecting prices to recover by Rs. 300-350 per qtl by June end.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Higher acreage Drop in domestic demand

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Soybean did our target of 2350 below the level of 2375 and even sustained at lower levels. Last week Soybean was mostly bearish but 2340 level is a good support and price did not sustained below it. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2385 and support at 2325.

STRATEGY
: Soybean is moving in a consolidation phase on charts and one should look for buying opportunities at lower levels, if Soybean sustains above the level of 2385 we can see the level of 2410, and on the downside if it sustains below the level of 2325 we can see Soybean at 2300 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Rising demand Active buying

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Chana was initially bullish and we saw good buying coming at lower levels but in the last two days we saw profit booking coming which erased most of the previous gains. For the next week Chana has resistance at 2660 and support at 2600.

STRATEGY
Last week Chana was initially bullish and we saw good buying coming at lower levels but in the last two days we saw profit booking coming which erased most of the previous gains. For the next week Chana has resistance at 2660 and support at 2600.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2630 2507 2430 2384 2307 2307 2138

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2741 2685 2657 2629 2601 2573 2517

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Weekly Chart

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX MCX

20-JUN-11 20-JUN-11 20-JUN-11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20-JUL- 11 20 JUL -11 30-APR-12 20-JUN-11 30-JUNE-11 15- JULY-11

Jeera Pepper Turmeric Guarseed Guargum Chana Soybean Soy Oil Refined Rape Mustard Seed Cotton Seed Oil Cake Gur Potato Kapas Wheat Mentha oil Cardamom

RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS RS/20KGS RS/QUINTAL RS/40KGS RS/QUINTAL RS./20KG RS/QUINTAL RS/KG RS/KG

14169 29190 7548 3377 10935 2612 2411.5 661.45 2971 1184 984 382.9 785.8 1201.8 903.3 795

14130 29250 7598 3377 10900 2610 2406 661.3 2963 1188 984 383.4 786 1202.8 897.5 799.7

14184 30299 7674 3395 11000 2657 2462 662.35 2975 1199 987 400 796 1203.8 898.9 849.7

13681 29120 7310 3272 10220 2601 2339 642.8 2893 1168 964 378.9 755.1 1175.4 858.4 763.2

13880 30293 7404 3344 10485 2629 2352.5 647.1 2909 1184 966 397.1 781 1191.6 858.4 776.4

23139 24087 24760 823190 145465 543700 281190 714100 402680 118530 21360 24045 1478 16000 8952 13743

-289 1103 -144 -33 -450 17 -59 -14.35 -62 0 -18 14.2 -4.8 -10.2 -44.9 -18.6

8952 6989 7705 153830 39790 226970 106110 137250 182760 67790 13760 21495 697 18230 1497 1845

27,799.05 57,920.83 17,048.58 219,228.67 139,644.45 133,367.82 62,069.30 431,630.93 107,756.17 13,114.30 4,033.43 813.69 2,171.12 1,817.45 32491.54 13438.87
* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED

Closing Price
13880 30293 7260 3344 10485 2629 2352.5 647.1 2909 1184 966 397.1 781 1191.6 858.4 776.4

% Change
-2.04 3.78 -2.02 -0.98 -4.12 0.65 -2.45 -2.17 -2.09 0.00 -1.83 3.71 -0.61 -0.85 -4.97 -2.34

Scripts
JEERA (JUNE) PEPPER (JUNE) TURMERIC (JUNE) GUARSEED (JULY) GUARSGUM (JULY) CHANA (JULY) SOYBEAN (JULY) REFINED SOYA OIL (JULY) MUSTARD (JULY)

R3
14921.00 32262.00 7980.00 3583.00 12128.33 2741.00 2630.50 689.85 3089.67

R2
14418.00 31083.00 7640.00 3460.00 11348.33 2685.00 2507.50 670.30 3007.67 1214.67 995.33 413.10 818.27 914.27 882.93

R1
14149.00 30688.00 7450.00 3402.00 10916.67 2657.00 2430.00 658.70 2958.33 1199.33 980.67 405.10 799.63 886.33 829.67

PP
13915.00 29904.00 7300.00 3337.00 10568.33 2629.00 2384.50 650.75 2925.67 1183.67 972.33 392.00 777.37 870.97 796.43

S1
13646.00 29509.00 7110.00 3279.00 10136.67 2601.00 2307.00 639.15 2876.33 1168.33 957.67 384.00 758.73 843.03 743.17

S2
13412.00 28725.00 6960.00 3214.00 9788.33 2573.00 2261.50 631.20 2843.67 1152.67 949.33 370.90 736.47 827.67 709.93

S3
12909.00 27546.00 6620.00 3091.00 9008.33 2517.00 2138.50 611.65 2761.67 1121.67 926.33 349.80 695.57 784.37 623.43

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (JULY) 1245.67 GUR (JULY) POTATO (JULY) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (JUNE) CARDAMOM (JUNE) 1018.33 434.20 859.17 957.57 969.43

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity PEPPER POTATO CHANA Expiry Date 20-JUN- 11 20-JUL-11 20-JUL- 11 Closing Price 30293 397.1 2629 % Change 3.78 3.71 0.65

Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 858.4 10485 2352.5 % Change -4.97 -4.12 -2.45

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Investment in Commodity has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

MENTHA OIL 30- JUN-11 GUARGUM SOYBEAN 20-JUL- 11 20-JUL- 11

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