End Game

Explanations, by asset class

Stocks (Large Cap)

US T.Bond

US T.Bill

Aaa & Baa Corporate

Bond

Real Estate

Inflation Rate
Real Returns
Arithmetic Average Return

Geometric Average Return

Risk Premium

FAQ
How precise are the
annual numbers?

How good as the averages

as predictors?

Why do you keep the

maturity of the 10-year
bond unchanged, when
you compute the return on
the bond?
My objective in this spreadsheet is to compute the annual returns you
would have earned on major financial asset classses, on an annual basis,
inclusive of both cash payout during the year and the price appreciation.

Explanations, by asset class

I use the S&P 500, which was created in 1957, and then back fill the data using other
indices of large market cap companies that existed prior. Each year, I compute the
annual return, by first computing the dividend yield by dividing the dividends paid and
the price change in the index, by the level of the index at the start of the year. Thus, if
the index starts at 1000, and increases to 1080, while delivering a dividend of 5, my
annual return = (1080-1000+5)/1000 = 8.5%
I use the 10-year US treasury bond, since it is the only longer maturity bond with an
uninterrupted history going back in time. For the data, I use the yields on a constant-
maturrity 10-year bond, which can be found on FRED (the Federal Reserve website). I
convert the yield into a return, by repricing the bond, issued at par at the prior year's
yield, with the new yield, while keeping the maturity constant at 10 years. Thus, if the
yield goes from 2.5% to 3%, I first price a 2.5%, 10 year coupon bond with a 3%
interest rate, and subtract this number from the par value of the bond which is $1000.
That gives me the price change. Adding the 3% coupon for the current year gives me
the total return.

I use the 3-month US treasury bill, again choosing it over the 6-month because of
longevity. I get the T.Bill rate at the end of each year from FRED and use it as my
erturn, since there should be no price change in this security. I use the average T.Bill
rate over the course of the year.
I obtain the yield on a Moody's Aaa and Baa corporate bond yields from FRED and
then compute the return on the bond, using the same approach that I use for the US
T.Bond.
I use the home price data that Robert Shiller reports on his webpage to compute a real
estate return on residential real estate. That series has now morphed into the Case-
Shiller Index.
I use the CPI for all urban consumers, reported on FRED.
For each of the data series. I computre a real return by removing the inflatin for the
year from the nominal return, using (1+ Nominal Rate)/ (1+Inflation Rate) -1.
A simple average of the annual returns over the specified period (10 yrs, 50 yrs etc.)

A compounded average of the returns over the period. This is most simply computed
by dividing the value you would have at the end of the period by the value at the
beginning and then computing the compouded average. To compute the cumulated
value on both stocks and bonds, I assume that dividends/coupons get reinvested back.
The risk premium is the difference in the annualized return on stocks and the
annualized return on T.Bonds and on T.Bills over the specified period.

FAQ
Since the S&P and US treasuries are liquid and the underlying data is widely dispersed,
the annual numbers are reliable.
The returns, especially on stocks and bonds, are noisy, with up years and down years.
The averages that have been computed come with error, and I have computed standard
errros in each of the numbers (especially the risk premiums). Note that even with the
longest data series, there is substantial standard error and it becomes explosively large
for shorter periods.
Normally, when you buy a 10-year bond and hold it for a year, you will end up with a
9-year bond. While I could compute the return using a 9-year maturity, and the answer
will be fairly close to what I report, I want to keep the 10-year rmaturity going for
consistency in my risk premium computation. Put simply, think of the return on the 10-
year bond as the one you would have if the coupon changed, but the maturity is reset to
10 year at the end of the year.
 Returns by year

Date updated: 1-Jan-22

Created by: Aswath Damodaran, adamodar@stern.nyu.edu
What is this da Historical returns: Stocks, Bonds & T.Bills with US companies
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com
Data website: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
Companies in eahttps://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definit https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm
Customized Geometric risk premium estimator
What is your riskfree rat LT Estimates of risk premiums from 192
Enter your starting year 1928 are provided at the bottom of this tab

Value of stocks in starting year: $ 100.00

Value of T.Bills in starting year: $ 100.00
Value of T.bonds in starting year: $ 100.00
Estimate of risk premium based on you 5.13%

Annual Returns on Investments in Value of $100 invested at start o

S&P
500
(include
s Baa S&P 500
dividen 3-month Corporate (includes
Year ds) T.Bill US T. Bond Bond Real Estate dividends)3
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% 3.22% 1.49% $ 143.81
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% 3.02% -2.06% $ 131.88
1930 ### 4.55% 4.54% 0.54% -4.30% $ 98.75
1931 ### 2.31% -2.56% -15.68% -8.15% $ 55.46
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% 23.59% -10.47% $ 50.66
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% 12.97% -3.81% $ 75.99
1934 -1.19% 0.28% 7.96% 18.82% 2.91% $ 75.09
1935 46.74% 0.17% 4.47% 13.31% 9.77% $ 110.18
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02% 11.38% 3.22% $ 145.38
1937 ### 0.28% 1.38% -4.42% 2.56% $ 94.00
1938 29.28% 0.07% 4.21% 9.24% -0.87% $ 121.53
1939 -1.10% 0.05% 4.41% 7.98% -1.30% $ 120.20
1940 ### 0.04% 5.40% 8.65% 3.31% $ 107.37
1941 ### 0.13% -2.02% 5.01% -8.38% $ 93.66
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29% 5.18% 3.33% $ 111.61
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49% 8.04% 11.45% $ 139.59
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58% 6.57% 16.58% $ 166.15

Page 5
 Returns by year

1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80% 6.80% 11.78% $ 225.67

1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13% 2.51% 24.10% $ 206.65
1947 5.20% 0.60% 0.92% 0.26% 21.26% $ 217.39
1948 5.70% 1.05% 1.95% 3.44% 2.06% $ 229.79
1949 18.30% 1.12% 4.66% 5.38% 0.09% $ 271.85
1950 30.81% 1.20% 0.43% 4.24% 3.64% $ 355.60
1951 23.68% 1.52% -0.30% -0.19% 6.05% $ 439.80
1952 18.15% 1.72% 2.27% 4.44% 4.41% $ 519.62
1953 -1.21% 1.89% 4.14% 1.62% 11.52% $ 513.35
1954 52.56% 0.94% 3.29% 6.16% 0.92% $ 783.18
1955 32.60% 1.73% -1.34% 2.04% 0.00% $1,038.47
1956 7.44% 2.63% -2.26% -2.35% 0.91% $1,115.73
1957 ### 3.23% 6.80% -0.72% 2.72% $ 999.05
1958 43.72% 1.77% -2.10% 6.43% 0.66% $1,435.84
1959 12.06% 3.39% -2.65% 1.57% 0.11% $1,608.95
1960 0.34% 2.88% 11.64% 6.66% 0.77% $1,614.37
1961 26.64% 2.35% 2.06% 5.10% 0.98% $2,044.40
1962 -8.81% 2.77% 5.69% 6.50% 0.32% $1,864.26
1963 22.61% 3.16% 1.68% 5.46% 2.14% $2,285.80
1964 16.42% 3.55% 3.73% 5.16% 1.26% $2,661.02
1965 12.40% 3.95% 0.72% 3.19% 1.66% $2,990.97
1966 -9.97% 4.86% 2.91% -3.45% 1.22% $2,692.74
1967 23.80% 4.31% -1.58% 0.90% 2.32% $3,333.69
1968 10.81% 5.34% 3.27% 4.85% 4.13% $3,694.23
1969 -8.24% 6.67% -5.01% -2.03% 6.99% $3,389.77
1970 3.56% 6.39% 16.75% 5.65% 8.22% $3,510.49
1971 14.22% 4.33% 9.79% 14.00% 4.24% $4,009.72
1972 18.76% 4.07% 2.82% 11.41% 2.98% $4,761.76
1973 ### 7.03% 3.66% 4.32% 3.42% $4,080.44
1974 ### 7.83% 1.99% -4.38% 10.07% $3,023.54
1975 37.00% 5.78% 3.61% 11.05% 6.77% $4,142.10
1976 23.83% 4.97% 15.98% 19.75% 8.18% $5,129.20
1977 -6.98% 5.27% 1.29% 9.95% 14.65% $4,771.20
1978 6.51% 7.19% -0.78% 3.14% 15.72% $5,081.77
1979 18.52% 10.07% 0.67% -2.01% 13.74% $6,022.89
1980 31.74% 11.43% -2.99% -3.32% 7.40% $7,934.26
1981 -4.70% 14.03% 8.20% 8.46% 5.10% $7,561.16
1982 20.42% 10.61% 32.81% 29.05% 0.56% $9,105.08
1983 22.34% 8.61% 3.20% 16.19% 4.75% ###
1984 6.15% 9.52% 13.73% 15.62% 4.68% ###
1985 31.24% 7.48% 25.71% 23.86% 7.47% ###

Page 6
 Returns by year

1986 18.49% 5.98% 24.28% 21.49% 9.61% ###

1987 5.81% 5.78% -4.96% 2.29% 7.88% ###
1988 16.54% 6.67% 8.22% 15.12% 7.21% ###
1989 31.48% 8.11% 17.69% 15.79% 4.38% ###
1990 -3.06% 7.49% 6.24% 6.14% -0.69% ###
1991 30.23% 5.38% 15.00% 17.85% -0.16% ###
1992 7.49% 3.43% 9.36% 12.17% 0.82% ###
1993 9.97% 3.00% 14.21% 16.43% 2.16% ###
1994 1.33% 4.25% -8.04% -1.32% 2.51% ###
1995 37.20% 5.49% 23.48% 20.16% 1.80% ###
1996 22.68% 5.01% 1.43% 4.79% 2.42% ###
1997 33.10% 5.06% 9.94% 11.83% 4.02% ###
1998 28.34% 4.78% 14.92% 7.95% 6.45% ###
1999 20.89% 4.64% -8.25% 0.84% 7.68% ###
2000 -9.03% 5.82% 16.66% 9.33% 9.28% ###
2001 ### 3.39% 5.57% 7.82% 6.67% ###
2002 ### 1.60% 15.12% 12.18% 9.56% ###
2003 28.36% 1.01% 0.38% 13.53% 9.82% ###
2004 10.74% 1.37% 4.49% 9.89% 13.64% ###
2005 4.83% 3.15% 2.87% 4.92% 13.51% ###
2006 15.61% 4.73% 1.96% 7.05% 1.73% ###
2007 5.48% 4.35% 10.21% 3.15% -5.40% ###
2008 ### 1.37% 20.10% -5.07% -12.00% ###
2009 25.94% 0.15% -11.12% 23.33% -3.85% ###
2010 14.82% 0.14% 8.46% 8.35% -4.12% ###
2011 2.10% 0.05% 16.04% 12.58% -3.88% ###
2012 15.89% 0.09% 2.97% 10.12% 6.44% ###
2013 32.15% 0.06% -9.10% -1.06% 10.72% ###
2014 13.52% 0.03% 10.75% 10.38% 4.51% ###
2015 1.38% 0.05% 1.28% -0.70% 5.21% ###
2016 11.77% 0.32% 0.69% 10.37% 5.31% ###
2017 21.61% 0.93% 2.80% 9.72% 6.21% ###
2018 -4.23% 1.94% -0.02% -2.76% 4.53% ###
2019 31.21% 1.55% 9.64% 15.33% 3.69% ###
2020 18.02% 0.09% 11.33% 10.41% 10.35% ###
2021 28.47% 0.06% -4.42% 0.93% 16.83% ###

Arithmetic Average Historical Return Mas se aproxima a la rea

1928-2021 11.82% 3.33% 5.11% 7.19% 4.36%
1972-2021 12.47% 4.42% 7.00% 9.29% 5.41%

Page 7
 Returns by year

2012-2021 16.98% 0.51% 2.59% 6.28% 7.38%

Geometric Average Historical Return

1928-2021 9.98% 3.28% 4.84% 6.93% 4.18%
1972-2021 11.06% 4.37% 6.60% 9.01% 5.25%
2012-2021 16.40% 0.51% 2.40% 6.10% 7.31%

Page 8
 Returns by year

US companies

Estimates of risk premiums from 1928, over the last 50 years and over the last 10 years
are provided at the bottom of this table.

Value of $100 invested at start of 1928 in Annual Risk Premium

Baa Stocks - Historical

3-month US T. Corporate Real Stocks - Baa Corp risk
T.Bill4 Bond5 Bond6 Estate2 Stocks - Bills Bonds Bond premium
$ 103.08 $ 100.84 $ 103.22 $ 101.49 40.73% 42.98% 40.59%
$ 106.34 $ 105.07 $ 106.33 $ 99.40 -11.46% -12.50% -11.32%
$ 111.18 $ 109.85 $ 106.91 $ 95.13 -29.67% -29.66% -25.66%
$ 113.74 $ 107.03 $ 90.14 $ 87.38 -46.15% -41.28% -28.16%
$ 114.96 $ 116.44 $ 111.41 $ 78.23 -9.71% -17.43% -32.23%
$ 116.06 $ 118.60 $ 125.86 $ 75.25 49.02% 48.13% 37.02%
$ 116.39 $ 128.05 $ 149.54 $ 77.44 -1.47% -9.15% -20.00%
$ 116.58 $ 133.78 $ 169.44 $ 85.00 46.57% 42.27% 33.43%
$ 116.78 $ 140.49 $ 188.73 $ 87.73 31.77% 26.93% 20.56%
$ 117.11 $ 142.43 $ 180.39 $ 89.98 -35.61% -36.72% -30.92%
$ 117.18 $ 148.43 $ 197.05 $ 89.20 29.22% 25.07% 20.05%
$ 117.24 $ 154.98 $ 212.78 $ 88.04 -1.14% -5.51% -9.08%
$ 117.28 $ 163.35 $ 231.18 $ 90.95 -10.71% -16.08% -19.32%
$ 117.43 $ 160.04 $ 242.76 $ 83.32 -12.90% -10.75% -17.78%
$ 117.83 $ 163.72 $ 255.33 $ 86.10 18.83% 16.88% 13.99%
$ 118.28 $ 167.79 $ 275.88 $ 95.95 24.68% 22.57% 17.02%
$ 118.73 $ 172.12 $ 293.99 $ 111.87 18.65% 16.45% 12.46%

Page 9
 Returns by year

$ 119.18 $ 178.67 $ 313.98 $ 125.04 35.44% 32.02% 29.02%

$ 119.63 $ 184.26 $ 321.85 $ 155.18 -8.81% -11.56% -10.94%
$ 120.35 $ 185.95 $ 322.70 $ 188.17 4.60% 4.28% 4.94%
$ 121.61 $ 189.58 $ 333.79 $ 192.05 4.66% 3.75% 2.27%
$ 122.96 $ 198.42 $ 351.74 $ 192.22 17.19% 13.64% 12.93%
$ 124.44 $ 199.27 $ 366.65 $ 199.22 29.60% 30.38% 26.57%
$ 126.33 $ 198.68 $ 365.95 $ 211.26 22.16% 23.97% 23.87%
$ 128.51 $ 203.19 $ 382.20 $ 220.57 16.43% 15.88% 13.71%
$ 130.94 $ 211.61 $ 388.39 $ 245.98 -3.10% -5.35% -2.83%
$ 132.17 $ 218.57 $ 412.31 $ 248.25 51.62% 49.27% 46.41%
$ 134.45 $ 215.65 $ 420.74 $ 248.25 30.87% 33.93% 30.55%
$ 137.98 $ 210.79 $ 410.84 $ 250.52 4.81% 9.70% 9.79%
$ 142.43 $ 225.11 $ 407.89 $ 257.33 -13.68% -17.25% -9.74%
$ 144.95 $ 220.39 $ 434.11 $ 259.03 41.95% 45.82% 37.29%
$ 149.86 $ 214.56 $ 440.95 $ 259.31 8.67% 14.70% 10.48%
$ 154.18 $ 239.53 $ 470.33 $ 261.30 -2.55% -11.30% -6.33% 6.11%
$ 157.81 $ 244.46 $ 494.32 $ 263.85 24.28% 24.58% 21.54% 6.62%
$ 162.19 $ 258.38 $ 526.43 $ 264.70 -11.58% -14.51% -15.31% 5.97%
$ 167.31 $ 262.74 $ 555.19 $ 270.38 19.45% 20.93% 17.15% 6.36%
$ 173.25 $ 272.53 $ 583.85 $ 273.78 12.87% 12.69% 11.25% 6.53%
$ 180.09 $ 274.49 $ 602.47 $ 278.32 8.45% 11.68% 9.21% 6.66%
$ 188.84 $ 282.47 $ 581.72 $ 281.72 -14.83% -12.88% -6.53% 6.11%
$ 196.98 $ 278.01 $ 586.92 $ 288.25 19.50% 25.38% 22.91% 6.57%
$ 207.49 $ 287.11 $ 615.36 $ 300.17 5.48% 7.54% 5.97% 6.60%
$ 221.32 $ 272.71 $ 602.90 $ 321.16 -14.91% -3.23% -6.22% 6.33%
$ 235.47 $ 318.41 $ 636.96 $ 347.55 -2.83% -13.19% -2.09% 5.90%
$ 245.67 $ 349.57 $ 726.14 $ 362.30 9.89% 4.43% 0.22% 5.87%
$ 255.68 $ 359.42 $ 808.99 $ 373.08 14.68% 15.94% 7.35% 6.08%
$ 273.66 $ 372.57 $ 843.92 $ 385.85 -21.34% -17.97% -18.63% 5.50%
$ 295.08 $ 379.98 $ 806.95 $ 424.72 -33.73% -27.89% -21.52% 4.64%
$ 312.12 $ 393.68 $ 896.12 $ 453.48 31.22% 33.39% 25.95% 5.17%
$ 327.65 $ 456.61 $ 1,073.13 $ 490.57 18.86% 7.85% 4.08% 5.22%
$ 344.91 $ 462.50 $ 1,179.96 $ 562.46 -12.25% -8.27% -16.93% 4.93%
$ 369.71 $ 458.90 $ 1,216.98 $ 650.90 -0.68% 7.29% 3.37% 4.97%
$ 406.93 $ 461.98 $ 1,192.53 $ 740.35 8.45% 17.85% 20.53% 5.21%
$ 453.46 $ 448.17 $ 1,152.99 $ 795.11 20.30% 34.72% 35.05% 5.73%
$ 517.06 $ 484.91 $ 1,250.56 $ 835.62 -18.73% -12.90% -13.16% 5.37%
$ 571.94 $ 644.04 $ 1,613.88 $ 840.33 9.80% -12.40% -8.63% 5.10%
$ 621.19 $ 664.65 $ 1,875.23 $ 880.25 13.73% 19.14% 6.14% 5.34%
$ 680.35 $ 755.92 $ 2,168.13 $ 921.43 -3.38% -7.59% -9.47% 5.12%
$ 731.23 $ 950.29 $ 2,685.50 $ 990.27 23.76% 5.52% 7.37% 5.13%

Page 10
 Returns by year

$ 774.95 ### $ 3,262.50 $ 1,085.46 12.52% -5.79% -2.99% 4.97%

$ 819.70 ### $ 3,337.20 $ 1,170.95 0.04% 10.77% 3.52% 5.07%
$ 874.35 ### $ 3,841.62 $ 1,255.38 9.87% 8.31% 1.42% 5.12%
$ 945.28 ### $ 4,448.20 $ 1,310.38 23.36% 13.78% 15.69% 5.24%
$ 1,016.11 ### $ 4,721.33 $ 1,301.32 -10.56% -9.30% -9.20% 5.00%
$ 1,070.73 ### $ 5,564.25 $ 1,299.27 24.86% 15.23% 12.38% 5.14%
$ 1,107.47 ### $ 6,241.54 $ 1,309.89 4.06% -1.87% -4.68% 5.03%
$ 1,140.67 ### $ 7,267.12 $ 1,338.15 6.97% -4.24% -6.46% 4.90%
$ 1,189.11 ### $ 7,171.25 $ 1,371.72 -2.92% 9.36% 2.65% 4.97%
$ 1,254.39 ### $ 8,616.71 $ 1,396.39 31.71% 13.71% 17.04% 5.08%
$ 1,317.18 ### $ 9,029.67 $ 1,430.13 17.68% 21.25% 17.89% 5.30%
$ 1,383.84 ### ### $ 1,487.69 28.04% 23.16% 21.27% 5.53%
$ 1,449.94 ### ### $ 1,583.61 23.56% 13.42% 20.39% 5.63%
$ 1,517.20 ### ### $ 1,705.23 16.25% 29.14% 20.04% 5.96%
$ 1,605.45 ### ### $ 1,863.51 -14.85% -25.69% -18.36% 5.51%
$ 1,659.84 ### ### $ 1,987.87 -15.24% -17.42% -19.67% 5.17%
$ 1,686.44 ### ### $ 2,178.00 -23.57% -37.08% -34.14% 4.53%
$ 1,703.49 ### ### $ 2,391.78 27.34% 27.98% 14.82% 4.82%
$ 1,726.86 ### ### $ 2,717.92 9.37% 6.25% 0.85% 4.84%
$ 1,781.19 ### ### $ 3,085.18 1.69% 1.97% -0.08% 4.80%
$ 1,865.39 ### ### $ 3,138.62 10.89% 13.65% 8.56% 4.91%
$ 1,946.59 ### ### $ 2,969.21 1.13% -4.73% 2.33% 4.79%
$ 1,973.16 ### ### $ 2,612.92 -37.92% -56.65% -31.49% 3.88%
$ 1,976.12 ### ### $ 2,512.37 25.79% 37.05% 2.61% 4.29%
$ 1,978.82 ### ### $ 2,408.91 14.68% 6.36% 6.47% 4.31%
$ 1,979.86 ### ### $ 2,315.38 2.05% -13.94% -10.49% 4.10%
$ 1,981.56 ### ### $ 2,464.41 15.80% 12.92% 5.77% 4.20%
$ 1,982.72 ### ### $ 2,728.54 32.09% 41.25% 33.20% 4.62%
$ 1,983.36 ### ### $ 2,851.70 13.49% 2.78% 3.14% 4.60%
$ 1,984.40 ### ### $ 3,000.22 1.33% 0.09% 2.08% 4.54%
$ 1,990.70 ### ### $ 3,159.52 11.46% 11.08% 1.41% 4.62%
$ 2,009.23 ### ### $ 3,355.82 20.67% 18.80% 11.88% 4.77%
$ 2,048.20 ### ### $ 3,507.93 -6.17% -4.21% -1.46% 4.66%
$ 2,079.94 ### ### $ 3,637.43 29.66% 21.58% 15.88% 4.83%
$ 2,081.82 ### ### $ 4,013.76 17.93% 6.69% 7.61% 4.84%
$ 2,083.06 ### ### $ 4,689.35 28.41% 32.88% 27.54% 5.13%
Risk Premium Standard Error
Mas se aproxima a la reaStocks - T.BStocks - T.Bonds Stocks - T.BiStocks - T.Bonds
8.49% 6.71% 2.05% 2.17% 1928-2021
8.04% 5.47% 2.44% 2.76% 1972-2021

Page 11
 Returns by year

16.47% 14.39% 3.88% 4.59% 2012-2021

Risk Premium
Stocks - T.BStocks - T.Bonds
6.69% 5.13%
6.70% 4.47%
15.89% 14.00%

Page 12
 Returns by year

Annual Real Returns on

S&P 500
(includes 3-month
Inflation dividends T. Bill !0-year Baa Corp Real
Rate )2 (Real) T.Bonds Bonds Estate3
-1.16% 45.49% 4.29% 2.01% 4.43% 2.68%
0.58% -8.83% 2.56% 3.60% 2.42% -2.63%
-6.40% -20.01% 11.69% 11.68% 7.41% 2.24%
-9.32% -38.07% 12.82% 7.45% -7.02% 1.29%
-10.27% 1.82% 12.64% 21.25% 37.74% -0.21%
0.76% 48.85% 0.20% 1.08% 12.11% -4.54%
1.52% -2.66% -1.22% 6.35% 17.04% 1.37%
2.99% 42.49% -2.74% 1.44% 10.02% 6.58%
1.45% 30.06% -1.26% 3.52% 9.79% 1.74%
2.86% -37.13% -2.51% -1.44% -7.07% -0.29%
-2.78% 32.98% 2.92% 7.19% 12.36% 1.96%
0.00% -1.10% 0.05% 4.41% 7.98% -1.30%
0.71% -11.31% -0.67% 4.65% 7.88% 2.57%
9.93% -20.65% -8.91% -10.87% -4.48% -16.66%
9.03% 9.30% -7.97% -6.18% -3.53% -5.23%
2.96% 21.47% -2.50% -0.46% 4.94% 8.24%
2.30% 16.36% -1.88% 0.27% 4.17% 13.96%

Page 13
 Returns by year

2.25% 32.84% -1.83% 1.52% 4.45% 9.32%

18.13% -22.48% -15.03% -12.70% -13.23% 5.05%
8.84% -3.34% -7.57% -7.27% -7.88% 11.42%
2.99% 2.63% -1.89% -1.01% 0.43% -0.91%
-2.07% 20.81% 3.26% 6.88% 7.61% 2.21%
5.93% 23.48% -4.46% -5.19% -1.60% -2.16%
6.00% 16.68% -4.23% -5.94% -5.84% 0.04%
0.75% 17.27% 0.96% 1.50% 3.66% 3.62%
0.75% -1.94% 1.13% 3.37% 0.86% 10.69%
-0.74% 53.71% 1.69% 4.06% 6.95% 1.68%
0.37% 32.10% 1.35% -1.70% 1.66% -0.37%
2.99% 4.33% -0.35% -5.09% -5.18% -2.01%
2.90% -12.98% 0.32% 3.79% -3.52% -0.18%
1.76% 41.23% 0.01% -3.79% 4.59% -1.08%
1.73% 10.15% 1.63% -4.30% -0.15% -1.59%
1.36% -1.01% 1.50% 10.14% 5.23% -0.59%
0.67% 25.79% 1.67% 1.38% 4.40% 0.30%
1.33% -10.01% 1.42% 4.30% 5.09% -1.00%
1.64% 20.63% 1.49% 0.04% 3.76% 0.49%
0.97% 15.30% 2.55% 2.73% 4.15% 0.29%
1.92% 10.28% 1.99% -1.18% 1.24% -0.26%
3.46% -12.98% 1.36% -0.53% -6.67% -2.16%
3.04% 20.15% 1.23% -4.48% -2.08% -0.70%
4.72% 5.82% 0.59% -1.38% 0.12% -0.56%
6.20% -13.60% 0.44% -10.56% -7.74% 0.75%
5.57% -1.90% 0.78% 10.59% 0.08% 2.51%
3.27% 10.61% 1.03% 6.31% 10.40% 0.95%
3.41% 14.84% 0.64% -0.57% 7.74% -0.42%
8.71% -21.17% -1.54% -4.64% -4.04% -4.86%
12.34% -34.04% -4.01% -9.21% -14.88% -2.02%
6.94% 28.11% -1.09% -3.12% 3.85% -0.15%
4.86% 18.09% 0.10% 10.60% 14.20% 3.16%
6.70% -12.82% -1.34% -5.07% 3.05% 7.45%
9.02% -2.30% -1.68% -8.99% -5.39% 6.15%
13.29% 4.61% -2.85% -11.14% -13.51% 0.40%
12.52% 17.08% -0.96% -13.78% -14.07% -4.55%
8.92% -12.51% 4.68% -0.66% -0.42% -3.51%
3.83% 15.98% 6.53% 27.92% 24.29% -3.15%
3.79% 17.87% 4.64% -0.57% 11.95% 0.92%
3.95% 2.11% 5.36% 9.41% 11.23% 0.70%
3.80% 26.43% 3.55% 21.11% 19.33% 3.54%

Page 14
 Returns by year

1.10% 17.21% 4.83% 22.93% 20.17% 8.42%

4.43% 1.32% 1.28% -9.00% -2.05% 3.30%
4.42% 11.60% 2.15% 3.64% 10.24% 2.67%
4.65% 25.64% 3.31% 12.47% 10.65% -0.25%
6.11% -8.64% 1.31% 0.12% 0.03% -6.41%
3.06% 26.36% 2.24% 11.59% 14.35% -3.13%
2.90% 4.46% 0.52% 6.28% 9.01% -2.02%
2.75% 7.03% 0.24% 11.16% 13.32% -0.57%
2.67% -1.31% 1.53% -10.43% -3.89% -0.16%
2.54% 33.80% 2.88% 20.42% 17.18% -0.72%
3.32% 18.74% 1.63% -1.83% 1.42% -0.88%
1.70% 30.88% 3.30% 8.10% 9.96% 2.28%
1.61% 26.30% 3.11% 13.10% 6.23% 4.76%
2.68% 17.72% 1.90% -10.65% -1.79% 4.86%
3.39% -12.01% 2.35% 12.83% 5.75% 5.70%
1.55% -13.20% 1.81% 3.96% 6.17% 5.04%
2.38% -23.78% -0.76% 12.44% 9.57% 7.02%
1.88% 25.99% -0.85% -1.48% 11.44% 7.79%
3.26% 7.25% -1.82% 1.20% 6.42% 10.05%
3.42% 1.37% -0.26% -0.53% 1.45% 9.76%
2.54% 12.75% 2.13% -0.57% 4.40% -0.79%
4.08% 1.35% 0.26% 5.89% -0.89% -9.11%
0.09% -36.61% 1.27% 19.99% -5.15% -12.08%
2.72% 22.60% -2.50% -13.47% 20.06% -6.40%
1.50% 13.13% -1.34% 6.86% 6.75% -5.53%
2.96% -0.84% -2.83% 12.70% 9.35% -6.65%
1.74% 13.91% -1.63% 1.21% 8.24% 4.61%
1.50% 30.19% -1.42% -10.45% -2.52% 9.08%
0.76% 12.67% -0.72% 9.91% 9.56% 3.73%
0.73% 0.64% -0.67% 0.55% -1.42% 4.45%
2.07% 9.50% -1.72% -1.36% 8.12% 3.17%
2.11% 19.09% -1.15% 0.68% 7.46% 4.02%
1.91% -6.02% 0.03% -1.89% -4.59% 2.57%
2.29% 28.28% -0.72% 7.19% 12.75% 1.38%
1.36% 16.44% -1.25% 9.84% 8.93% 8.86%
7.00% 20.06% -6.49% -10.67% -5.67% 9.19%

Arithmetic Average Annual Real Return

1928-2021 8.48% 0.35% 2.28% 4.27% 1.27%
1972-2021 8.13% 0.63% 3.42% 5.61% 1.27%

Page 15
 Returns by year

2012-2021 12.39% -1.21% 2.84% 5.59% 3.52%

Page 16
Year Real Estate Source of data: http://www.econ.yale.edu//~shiller/data.htm
1927 5.83791228
1928 5.92495868
1929 5.80309371
1930 5.55356068
1931 5.10091937
1932 4.56703475
1933 4.39294194
1934 4.52061
1935 4.96208526
1936 5.12179501
1937 5.25308665
1938 5.20719141
1939 5.13941423
1940 5.3093545
1941 4.86418489
1942 5.02631018
1943 5.60163471
1944 6.53062255
1945 7.29975855
1946 9.05912341
1947 10.9854446
1948 11.2115817
1949 11.2215991
1950 11.6301093
1951 12.3334574
1952 12.8769537
1953 14.3599369
1954 14.4924392
1955 14.4924392
1956 14.6249415
1957 15.0224484
1958 15.1218251
1959 15.1383879
1960 15.2543274
1961 15.4033925
1962 15.4530809
1963 15.7843366
1964 15.9830901
1965 16.2480947
1966 16.4468481
1967 16.8277922
1968 17.5234293
1969 18.7490756
1970 20.2894149
1971 21.1506798
1972 21.7800657
1973 22.5253912
1974 24.7944931
1975 26.47
1976 28.64
1977 32.84
1978 38.00
1979 43.22
1980 46.42
1981 48.78
1982 49.06
1983 51.39
1984 53.79
1985 57.81
1986 63.37
1987 68.36
1988 73.29
1989 76.50
1990 75.97
1991 75.85
1992 76.47
1993 78.12
1994 80.08
1995 81.52
1996 83.49
1997 86.85
1998 92.45
1999 99.55
2000 108.79
2001 116.05
2002 127.15
2003 139.63
2004 158.67
2005 180.11
2006 183.23
2007 173.34
2008 152.54
2009 146.67
2010 140.63
2011 135.17
2012 143.87
2013 159.29
2014 166.48
2015 175.15
2016 184.45
2017 195.91
2018 204.79
2019 212.35
2020 234.32
2021 273.76 As of October
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

Year S&P 500 Dividends

Dividend Yield
T.Bond rate
Return on bond
Aaa Bond Rate
Return on Aaa
Baa Bond Rate
1927 17.66 0.62 3.50% 3.17% 4.46% 5.32%
1928 24.35 1.05 4.30% 3.45% 0.84% 4.61% 3.28% 5.60%
1929 21.45 0.88 4.10% 3.36% 4.20% 4.67% 4.14% 5.95%
1930 15.34 0.72 4.70% 3.22% 4.54% 4.52% 5.86% 6.71%
1931 8.12 0.50 6.10% 3.93% -2.56% 5.32% -1.56% 10.42%
1932 6.92 0.50 7.20% 3.35% 8.79% 4.59% 11.07% 8.42%
1933 9.97 0.41 4.10% 3.53% 1.86% 4.50% 5.30% 7.75%
1934 9.5 0.35 3.70% 3.01% 7.96% 3.81% 10.15% 6.23%
1935 13.43 0.51 3.80% 2.84% 4.47% 3.44% 6.90% 5.30%
1936 17.18 0.54 3.14% 2.59% 5.02% 3.10% 6.33% 4.53%
1937 10.55 0.56 5.30% 2.73% 1.38% 3.21% 2.17% 5.73%
1938 13.14 0.50 3.80% 2.56% 4.21% 3.08% 4.31% 5.27%
1939 12.46 0.54 4.30% 2.35% 4.41% 2.94% 4.28% 4.92%
1940 10.58 0.55 5.20% 2.01% 5.40% 2.71% 4.93% 4.45%
1941 8.69 0.54 6.20% 2.47% -2.02% 2.80% 1.93% 4.38%
1942 9.77 0.59 6.00% 2.49% 2.29% 2.81% 2.71% 4.28%
1943 11.67 0.55 4.70% 2.49% 2.49% 2.74% 3.42% 3.82%
1944 13.28 0.61 4.60% 2.48% 2.58% 2.70% 3.09% 3.49%
1945 17.36 0.68 3.90% 2.33% 3.80% 2.61% 3.48% 3.10%
1946 15.3 0.60 3.90% 2.24% 3.13% 2.61% 2.61% 3.17%
1947 15.3 0.80 5.20% 2.39% 0.92% 2.86% 0.46% 3.52%
1948 15.2 0.97 6.40% 2.44% 1.95% 2.79% 3.46% 3.53%
1949 16.79 1.19 7.10% 2.19% 4.66% 2.58% 4.62% 3.31%
1950 20.43 1.53 7.50% 2.39% 0.43% 2.67% 1.80% 3.20%
1951 23.77 1.50 6.30% 2.70% -0.30% 3.01% -0.23% 3.61%
1952 26.57 1.51 5.70% 2.75% 2.27% 2.97% 3.35% 3.51%
1953 24.81 1.44 5.80% 2.59% 4.14% 3.13% 1.61% 3.74%
1954 35.98 1.87 5.20% 2.51% 3.29% 2.90% 5.10% 3.45%
1955 45.48 2.23 4.90% 2.96% -1.34% 3.15% 0.78% 3.62%
1956 46.67 2.19 4.70% 3.59% -2.26% 3.75% -1.78% 4.37%
1957 39.99 1.80 4.50% 3.21% 6.80% 3.81% 3.26% 5.03%
1958 55.21 2.26 4.10% 3.86% -2.10% 4.08% 1.63% 4.85%
1959 59.89 1.98 3.30% 4.69% -2.65% 4.58% 0.14% 5.28%
1960 58.11 1.98 3.41% 3.84% 11.64% 4.35% 6.41% 5.10%
1961 71.55 2.04 2.85% 4.06% 2.06% 4.42% 3.79% 5.10%
1962 63.1 2.15 3.40% 3.86% 5.69% 4.24% 5.86% 4.92%
1963 75.02 2.35 3.13% 4.13% 1.68% 4.35% 3.36% 4.85%
1964 84.75 2.58 3.05% 4.18% 3.73% 4.44% 3.64% 4.81%
1965 92.43 2.83 3.06% 4.62% 0.72% 4.68% 2.56% 5.02%

Page 19
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

1966 80.33 2.88 3.59% 4.84% 2.91% 5.39% -0.70% 6.18%

1967 96.47 2.98 3.09% 5.70% -1.58% 6.19% -0.45% 6.93%
1968 103.86 3.04 2.93% 6.03% 3.27% 6.45% 4.32% 7.23%
1969 92.06 3.24 3.52% 7.65% -5.01% 7.72% -2.18% 8.65%
1970 92.15 3.19 3.46% 6.39% 16.75% 7.64% 8.27% 9.12%
1971 102.09 3.16 3.10% 5.93% 9.79% 7.25% 10.35% 8.38%
1972 118.05 3.19 2.70% 6.36% 2.82% 7.08% 8.44% 7.93%
1973 97.55 3.61 3.70% 6.74% 3.66% 7.68% 3.00% 8.48%
1974 68.56 3.72 5.43% 7.43% 1.99% 8.89% -0.12% 10.63%
1975 90.19 3.73 4.14% 8.00% 3.61% 8.79% 9.54% 10.56%
1976 107.46 4.22 3.93% 6.87% 15.98% 7.98% 14.23% 9.12%
1977 95.1 4.86 5.11% 7.69% 1.29% 8.19% 6.58% 8.99%
1978 96.11 5.18 5.39% 9.01% -0.78% 9.16% 2.01% 9.94%
1979 107.94 5.97 5.53% 10.39% 0.67% 10.74% -0.25% 12.06%
1980 135.76 6.44 4.74% 12.84% -2.99% 13.21% -2.55% 15.14%
1981 122.55 6.83 5.57% 13.72% 8.20% 14.23% 7.94% 16.55%
1982 140.64 6.93 4.93% 10.54% 32.81% 11.83% 27.89% 14.14%
1983 164.93 7.12 4.32% 11.83% 3.20% 12.57% 7.74% 13.75%
1984 167.24 7.83 4.68% 11.50% 13.73% 12.13% 15.04% 13.40%
1985 211.28 8.20 3.88% 9.26% 25.71% 10.16% 24.15% 11.58%
1986 242.17 8.19 3.38% 7.11% 24.28% 8.49% 21.12% 9.97%
1987 247.08 9.17 3.71% 8.99% -4.96% 10.11% -1.42% 11.29%
1988 277.72 10.22 3.68% 9.11% 8.22% 9.57% 13.49% 10.65%
1989 353.4 11.73 3.32% 7.84% 17.69% 8.86% 14.15% 9.82%
1990 330.22 12.35 3.74% 8.08% 6.24% 9.05% 7.64% 10.43%
1991 417.09 12.97 3.11% 7.09% 15.00% 8.31% 13.95% 9.26%
1992 435.71 12.64 2.90% 6.77% 9.36% 7.98% 10.53% 8.81%
1993 466.45 12.69 2.72% 5.77% 14.21% 6.93% 15.38% 7.69%
1994 459.27 13.36 2.91% 7.81% -8.04% 8.46% -3.13% 9.10%
1995 615.93 14.17 2.30% 5.71% 23.48% 6.82% 20.08% 7.49%
1996 740.74 14.89 2.01% 6.30% 1.43% 7.20% 4.18% 7.89%
1997 970.43 15.52 1.60% 5.81% 9.94% 6.76% 10.32% 7.32%
1998 1229.23 16.20 1.32% 4.65% 14.92% 6.22% 10.69% 7.23%
1999 1469.25 16.71 1.14% 6.44% -8.25% 7.55% -2.89% 8.19%
2000 1320.28 16.27 1.23% 5.11% 16.66% 7.21% 9.92% 8.02%
2001 1148.09 15.74 1.37% 5.05% 5.57% 6.77% 10.33% 8.05%
2002 879.82 16.08 1.83% 3.82% 15.12% 6.21% 10.85% 7.45%
2003 1111.91 17.39 1.56% 4.25% 0.38% 5.62% 10.63% 6.60%
2004 1211.92 19.44 1.60% 4.22% 4.49% 5.47% 6.75% 6.15%
2005 1248.29 22.22 1.78% 4.39% 2.87% 5.37% 6.23% 6.32%
2006 1418.3 24.88 1.75% 4.70% 1.96% 5.32% 5.75% 6.22%

Page 20
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

2007 1468.36 27.73 1.89% 4.02% 10.21% 5.49% 4.04% 6.65%

2008 903.25 28.39 3.14% 2.21% 20.10% 5.05% 8.88% 8.43%
2009 1115.1 22.41 2.01% 3.84% -11.12% 5.26% 3.45% 6.37%
2010 1257.64 22.73 1.81% 3.29% 8.46% 5.02% 7.11% 6.10%
2011 1257.6 26.43 2.10% 1.88% 16.04% 3.93% 13.89% 5.25%
2012 1426.19 31.25 2.19% 1.76% 2.97% 3.65% 6.24% 4.63%
2013 1848.36 36.28 1.96% 3.04% -9.10% 4.62% -3.98% 5.38%
2014 2058.9 39.44 1.92% 2.17% 10.75% 3.79% 11.42% 4.74%
2015 2043.9 43.39 2.12% 2.27% 1.28% 3.97% 2.33% 5.46%
2016 2238.83 45.70 2.04% 2.45% 0.69% 4.06% 3.24% 4.83%
2017 2673.61 48.93 1.83% 2.41% 2.80% 3.51% 8.63% 4.22%
2018 2506.85 53.75 2.14% 2.69% -0.02% 4.02% -0.62% 5.13%
2019 3230.78 58.5 1.81% 1.92% 9.64% 3.01% 12.63% 3.88%
2020 3756.07 57.00 1.52% 0.93% 11.33% 2.23% 9.93% 3.11%
2021 4766.18 59.2 1.24% 1.51% -4.42% 2.71% -1.93% 3.37%

Page 21
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

Return on
Returns
Baa on Real Estate Jan 1 notes

3.22% 1.49%
3.02% -2.06%
0.54% -4.30%
-15.68% -8.15%
23.59% -10.47%
12.97% -3.81%
18.82% 2.91%
13.31% 9.77%
11.38% 3.22%
-4.42% 2.56%
9.24% -0.87%
7.98% -1.30%
8.65% 3.31%
5.01% -8.38%
5.18% 3.33%
8.04% 11.45%
6.57% 16.58%
6.80% 11.78%
2.51% 24.10%
0.26% 21.26%
3.44% 2.06%
5.38% 0.09%
4.24% 3.64%
-0.19% 6.05%
4.44% 4.41%
1.62% 11.52%
6.16% 0.92%
2.04% 0.00%
-2.35% 0.91%
-0.72% 2.72%
6.43% 0.66%
1.57% 0.11%
6.66% 0.77%
5.10% 0.98%
6.50% 0.32%
5.46% 2.14%
5.16% 1.26%
3.19% 1.66%

Page 22
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

-3.45% 1.22%
0.90% 2.32%
4.85% 4.13%
-2.03% 6.99%
5.65% 8.22%
14.00% 4.24%
11.41% 2.98%
4.32% 3.42%
-4.38% 10.07%
11.05% 6.76%
19.75% 8.20%
9.95% 14.66%
3.14% 15.71%
-2.01% 13.74%
-3.32% 7.40%
8.46% 5.08%
29.05% 0.57%
16.19% 4.75%
15.62% 4.67%
23.86% 7.47%
21.49% 9.62%
2.29% 7.87%
15.12% 7.21%
15.79% 4.38%
6.14% -0.69%
17.85% -0.18%
12.17% 0.84%
16.43% 2.16%
-1.32% 2.51%
20.16% 1.81%
4.79% 2.43%
11.83% 4.04%
7.95% 6.43%
0.84% 7.69%
9.33% 9.25%
7.82% 6.68%
12.18% 9.56%
13.53% 9.82%
9.89% 13.64%
4.92% 13.51%
7.05% 1.74%

Page 23
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

3.15% -5.40%
-5.07% -12.00%
23.33% -3.85%
8.35% -4.11%
12.58% -3.90%
10.12% 6.45%
-1.06% 10.71%
10.38% 4.52%
-0.70% 5.22%
10.37% 5.33%
9.72% 6.23%
-2.76% 4.55%
15.33% 3.44%
10.41% 10.62%
0.93% 16.76% Used indicated dividend

Page 24
 T. Bond yield & return

Bond used: US treasury 10-year bond at end of each year

Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis (FRED)
Computation To compute the return on a constant maturity bond, I add two components - the promised coupon at the s
The return on the 10-year bond for 1928 = 3.17% (Coupon rate promised at the end of 1927) - Price chan

Year T.Bond rate

Return on bond
1927 3.17%
1928 3.45% 0.84%
1929 3.36% 4.20%
1930 3.22% 4.54%
1931 3.93% -2.56%
1932 3.35% 8.79%
1933 3.53% 1.86%
1934 3.01% 7.96%
1935 2.84% 4.47%
1936 2.59% 5.02%
1937 2.73% 1.38%
1938 2.56% 4.21%
1939 2.35% 4.41%
1940 2.01% 5.40%
1941 2.47% -2.02%
1942 2.49% 2.29%
1943 2.49% 2.49%
1944 2.48% 2.58%
1945 2.33% 3.80%
1946 2.24% 3.13%
1947 2.39% 0.92%
1948 2.44% 1.95%
1949 2.19% 4.66%
1950 2.39% 0.43%
1951 2.70% -0.30%
1952 2.75% 2.27%
1953 2.59% 4.14%
1954 2.51% 3.29%
1955 2.96% -1.34%
1956 3.59% -2.26%
1957 3.21% 6.80%
1958 3.86% -2.10%
1959 4.69% -2.65%
1960 3.84% 11.64%

Page 25
 T. Bond yield & return

1961 4.06% 2.06%

1962 3.86% 5.69%
1963 4.13% 1.68%
1964 4.18% 3.73%
1965 4.62% 0.72%
1966 4.84% 2.91%
1967 5.70% -1.58%
1968 6.03% 3.27%
1969 7.65% -5.01%
1970 6.39% 16.75%
1971 5.93% 9.79%
1972 6.36% 2.82%
1973 6.74% 3.66%
1974 7.43% 1.99%
1975 8.00% 3.61%
1976 6.87% 15.98%
1977 7.69% 1.29%
1978 9.01% -0.78%
1979 10.39% 0.67%
1980 12.84% -2.99%
1981 13.72% 8.20%
1982 10.54% 32.81%
1983 11.83% 3.20%
1984 11.50% 13.73%
1985 9.26% 25.71%
1986 7.11% 24.28%
1987 8.99% -4.96%
1988 9.11% 8.22%
1989 7.84% 17.69%
1990 8.08% 6.24%
1991 7.09% 15.00%
1992 6.77% 9.36%
1993 5.77% 14.21%
1994 7.81% -8.04%
1995 5.71% 23.48%
1996 6.30% 1.43%
1997 5.81% 9.94%
1998 4.65% 14.92%
1999 6.44% -8.25%
2000 5.11% 16.66%
2001 5.05% 5.57%

Page 26
 T. Bond yield & return

2002 3.82% 15.12%

2003 4.25% 0.38%
2004 4.22% 4.49%
2005 4.39% 2.87%
2006 4.70% 1.96%
2007 4.02% 10.21%
2008 2.21% 20.10%
2009 3.84% -11.12%
2010 3.29% 8.46%
2011 1.88% 16.04%
2012 1.76% 2.97%
2013 3.04% -9.10%
2014 2.17% 10.75%
2015 2.27% 1.28%
2016 2.45% 0.69%
2017 2.41% 2.80%
2018 2.69% -0.02%
2019 1.92% 9.64%
2020 0.93% 11.33%
2021 1.51% -4.42%

Page 27
 T. Bond yield & return

promised coupon at the start of the year and the price change due to interest rate changes.
end of 1927) - Price change on a bond with a coupon rate of 3.17%, when the interest rate goes to 3.45%.

Page 28
 T. Bill rates

FRED Graph Observations

Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

TB3MS 3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Annual
observation_date TB3MS
1934-01-01 0.28 0.28%
1935-01-01 0.17 0.17%
1936-01-01 0.17 0.17%
1937-01-01 0.28 0.28%
1938-01-01 0.07 0.07%
1939-01-01 0.05 0.05%
1940-01-01 0.04 0.04%
1941-01-01 0.13 0.13%
1942-01-01 0.34 0.34%
1943-01-01 0.38 0.38%
1944-01-01 0.38 0.38%
1945-01-01 0.38 0.38%
1946-01-01 0.38 0.38%
1947-01-01 0.60 0.60%
1948-01-01 1.05 1.05%
1949-01-01 1.12 1.12%
1950-01-01 1.20 1.20%
1951-01-01 1.52 1.52%
1952-01-01 1.72 1.72%
1953-01-01 1.89 1.89%
1954-01-01 0.94 0.94%
1955-01-01 1.73 1.73%
1956-01-01 2.63 2.63%
1957-01-01 3.23 3.23%
1958-01-01 1.77 1.77%
1959-01-01 3.39 3.39%
1960-01-01 2.88 2.88%
1961-01-01 2.35 2.35%
1962-01-01 2.77 2.77%
1963-01-01 3.16 3.16%
1964-01-01 3.55 3.55%
1965-01-01 3.95 3.95%
1966-01-01 4.86 4.86%
1967-01-01 4.31 4.31%
1968-01-01 5.34 5.34%
1969-01-01 6.67 6.67%
1970-01-01 6.39 6.39%
1971-01-01 4.33 4.33%
1972-01-01 4.07 4.07%

Page 29
 T. Bill rates

1973-01-01 7.03 7.03%

1974-01-01 7.83 7.83%
1975-01-01 5.78 5.78%
1976-01-01 4.97 4.97%
1977-01-01 5.27 5.27%
1978-01-01 7.19 7.19%
1979-01-01 10.07 10.07%
1980-01-01 11.43 11.43%
1981-01-01 14.03 14.03%
1982-01-01 10.61 10.61%
1983-01-01 8.61 8.61%
1984-01-01 9.52 9.52%
1985-01-01 7.48 7.48%
1986-01-01 5.98 5.98%
1987-01-01 5.78 5.78%
1988-01-01 6.67 6.67%
1989-01-01 8.11 8.11%
1990-01-01 7.49 7.49%
1991-01-01 5.38 5.38%
1992-01-01 3.43 3.43%
1993-01-01 3.00 3.00%
1994-01-01 4.25 4.25%
1995-01-01 5.49 5.49%
1996-01-01 5.01 5.01%
1997-01-01 5.06 5.06%
1998-01-01 4.78 4.78%
1999-01-01 4.64 4.64%
2000-01-01 5.82 5.82%
2001-01-01 3.39 3.39%
2002-01-01 1.60 1.60%
2003-01-01 1.01 1.01%
2004-01-01 1.37 1.37%
2005-01-01 3.15 3.15%
2006-01-01 4.73 4.73%
2007-01-01 4.35 4.35%
2008-01-01 1.37 1.37%
2009-01-01 0.15 0.15%
2010-01-01 0.14 0.14%
2011-01-01 0.05 0.05%
2012-01-01 0.09 0.09%
2013-01-01 0.06 0.06%
2014-01-01 0.03 0.03%
2015-01-01 0.05 0.05%
2016-01-01 0.32 0.32%
2017-01-01 0.93 0.93%
2018-01-01 1.94 1.94%
2019-01-01 2.06 2.06%
1/1/2020 1.52 1.52%

Page 30
 T. Bill rates

ally Adjusted

Page 31
 Inflation Rate

FRED Graph Observations

Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CPIAUCNS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average, Percent Change from Year Ago of (Index 19

Frequency: Annual
observation_ CPIAUCNS
1914 1.0 1.00%
1915 2.0 1.98%
1916 12.6 12.62%
1917 18.1 18.10%
1918 20.4 20.44%
1919 14.5 14.55%
1920 2.6 2.65%
1921 -10.8 -10.82%
1922 -2.3 -2.31%
1923 2.4 2.37%
1924 0.0 0.00%
1925 3.5 3.47%
1926 -1.1 -1.12%
1927 -2.3 -2.26%
1928 -1.2 -1.16%
1929 0.6 0.58%
1930 -6.4 -6.40%
1931 -9.3 -9.32%
1932 -10.3 -10.27%
1933 0.8 0.76%
1934 1.5 1.52%
1935 3.0 2.99%
1936 1.4 1.45%
1937 2.9 2.86%
1938 -2.8 -2.78%
1939 0.0 0.00%
1940 0.7 0.71%
1941 9.9 9.93%
1942 9.0 9.03%
1943 3.0 2.96%
1944 2.3 2.30%
1945 2.2 2.25%
1946 18.1 18.13%
1947 8.8 8.84%
1948 3.0 2.99%
1949 -2.1 -2.07%
1950 5.9 5.93%
1951 6.0 6.00%
1952 0.8 0.75%

Page 32
 Inflation Rate

1953 0.7 0.75%

1954 -0.7 -0.74%
1955 0.4 0.37%
1956 3.0 2.99%
1957 2.9 2.90%
1958 1.8 1.76%
1959 1.7 1.73%
1960 1.4 1.36%
1961 0.7 0.67%
1962 1.3 1.33%
1963 1.6 1.64%
1964 1.0 0.97%
1965 1.9 1.92%
1966 3.5 3.46%
1967 3.0 3.04%
1968 4.7 4.72%
1969 6.2 6.20%
1970 5.6 5.57%
1971 3.3 3.27%
1972 3.4 3.41%
1973 8.7 8.71%
1974 12.3 12.34%
1975 6.9 6.94%
1976 4.9 4.86%
1977 6.7 6.70%
1978 9.0 9.02%
1979 13.3 13.29%
1980 12.5 12.52%
1981 8.9 8.92%
1982 3.8 3.83%
1983 3.8 3.79%
1984 3.9 3.95%
1985 3.8 3.80%
1986 1.1 1.10%
1987 4.4 4.43%
1988 4.4 4.42%
1989 4.6 4.65%
1990 6.1 6.11%
1991 3.1 3.06%
1992 2.9 2.90%
1993 2.7 2.75%
1994 2.7 2.67%
1995 2.5 2.54%
1996 3.3 3.32%
1997 1.7 1.70%
1998 1.6 1.61%
1999 2.7 2.68%
2000 3.4 3.39%
2001 1.6 1.55%
2002 2.4 2.38%

Page 33
 Inflation Rate

2003 1.9 1.88%

2004 3.3 3.26%
2005 3.4 3.42%
2006 2.5 2.54%
2007 4.1 4.08%
2008 0.1 0.09%
2009 2.7 2.72%
2010 1.5 1.50%
2011 3.0 2.96%
2012 1.7 1.74%
2013 1.5 1.50%
2014 0.8 0.76%
2015 0.7 0.73%
2016 2.1 2.07%
2017 2.1 2.11%
2018 1.9 1.91%
2019 2.3 2.29%
2020 1.4 1.36%
2021 6.8 7.00%

Page 34
 Inflation Rate

ge from Year Ago of (Index 1982-1984=100), Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Page 35
 Summary for ppt

Arithmetic Average Geometric Average

Stocks - T. Bills
Stocks - T. Bonds
Stocks - T. Bills
Stocks - T. Bonds
1928-2021 8.49% 6.71% 6.69% 5.13%
Std Error 2.05% 2.17%
1972-2021 8.04% 5.47% 6.70% 4.47%
Std Error 2.44% 2.76%
2012-2021 16.47% 14.39% 15.89% 14.00%
Std Error 3.88% 4.59%

Page 36
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

Home Price data from Robert Shiller's website. FRED Graph Observations
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CSUSHPINS S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, Perc

Date From fig2.1 Chg in House Price
1890 3.56 Frequency: Annual
1891 3.21 -9.79% observation_dCSUSHPINSA
1892 3.27 1.81% 1988-01-01 7.2 7.21%
1893 3.41 4.26% 1989-01-01 4.4 4.38%
1894 3.97 16.52% 1990-01-01 -0.7 -0.70%
1895 3.60 -9.21% 1991-01-01 -0.2 -0.18%
1896 3.12 -13.37% 1992-01-01 0.8 0.84%
1897 3.22 3.16% 1993-01-01 2.2 2.16%
1898 3.43 6.49% 1994-01-01 2.5 2.52%
1899 3.28 -4.40% 1995-01-01 1.8 1.81%
1900 3.75 14.34% 1996-01-01 2.4 2.43%
1901 3.15 -16.10% 1997-01-01 4.0 4.03%
1902 3.71 17.90% 1998-01-01 6.4 6.44%
1903 3.77 1.56% 1999-01-01 7.7 7.69%
1904 3.94 4.62% 2000-01-01 9.3 9.25%
1905 3.45 -12.37% 2001-01-01 6.7 6.68%
1906 4.10 18.66% 2002-01-01 9.6 9.56%
1907 4.52 10.34% 2003-01-01 9.8 9.82%
1908 4.08 -9.76% 2004-01-01 13.6 13.64%
1909 3.99 -2.28% 2005-01-01 13.5 13.51%
1910 4.31 8.01% 2006-01-01 1.7 1.73%
1911 4.21 -2.29% 2007-01-01 -5.4 -5.40%
1912 4.37 3.86% 2008-01-01 -12.0 -12.00%
1913 4.37 0.00% 2009-01-01 -3.9 -3.85%
1914 4.53 3.72% 2010-01-01 -4.1 -4.12%
1915 4.16 -8.19% 2011-01-01 -3.9 -3.90%
1916 4.56 9.48% 2012-01-01 6.5 6.45%
1917 4.65 2.04% 2013-01-01 10.7 10.71%
1918 4.94 6.37% 2014-01-01 4.5 4.52%
1919 5.44 9.98% 2015-01-01 5.2 5.22%
1920 5.96 9.61% 2016-01-01 5.3 5.33%
1921 5.83 -2.24% 2017-01-01 6.2 6.23%
1922 5.91 1.39% 2018-01-01 4.5 4.55%
1923 5.99 1.47% 2019-01-01 #N/A
1924 6.01 0.19%
1925 6.32 5.22%
1926 6.06 -4.04%
1927 5.84 -3.73%
1928 5.92 1.49%
1929 5.80 -2.06%
1930 5.55 -4.30%

Page 37
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

1931 5.10 -8.15%

1932 4.57 -10.47%
1933 4.39 -3.81%
1934 4.52 2.91%
1935 4.96 9.77%
1936 5.12 3.22%
1937 5.25 2.56%
1938 5.21 -0.87%
1939 5.14 -1.30%
1940 5.31 3.31%
1941 4.86 -8.38%
1942 5.03 3.33%
1943 5.60 11.45%
1944 6.53 16.58%
1945 7.30 11.78%
1946 9.06 24.10%
1947 10.99 21.26%
1948 11.21 2.06%
1949 11.22 0.09%
1950 11.63 3.64%
1951 12.33 6.05%
1952 12.88 4.41%
1953 14.36 11.52%
1954 14.49 0.92%
1955 14.49 0.00%
1956 14.62 0.91%
1957 15.02 2.72%
1958 15.12 0.66%
1959 15.14 0.11%
1960 15.25 0.77%
1961 15.40 0.98%
1962 15.45 0.32%
1963 15.78 2.14%
1964 15.98 1.26%
1965 16.25 1.66%
1966 16.45 1.22%
1967 16.83 2.32%
1968 17.52 4.13%
1969 18.75 6.99%
1970 20.29 8.22%
1971 21.15 4.24%
1972 21.78 2.98%
1973 22.53 3.42%
1974 24.79 10.07%
1975 26.47 6.76%
1976 28.64 8.20%
1977 32.84 14.66%
1978 38.00 15.71%
1979 43.22 13.74%
1980 46.42 7.40%

Page 38
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

1981 48.78 5.08%

1982 49.06 0.57%
1983 51.39 4.75%
1984 53.79 4.67%
1985 57.81 7.47%
1986 63.37 9.62%
1987 68.36 7.87%
1988 73.29 7.21%
1989 76.50 4.38%
1990 75.97 -0.69%
1991 75.83 -0.18%
1992 76.47 0.84%
1993 78.12 2.16%
1994 80.08 2.51%
1995 81.53 1.81%
1996 83.51 2.43%
1997 86.88 4.04%
1998 92.47 6.43%
1999 99.58 7.69%
2000 108.79 9.25%
2001 116.06 6.68%
2002 127.15 9.56%
2003 139.63 9.82%
2004 158.68 13.64%
2005 180.11 13.51%
2006 183.24 1.74%
2007 173.35 -5.40%
2008 152.55 -12.00%
2009 146.67 -3.85%
2010 140.64 -4.11%
2011 135.16 -3.90%
2012 143.88 6.45%
2013 159.29 10.71%
2014 166.49 4.52%
2015 175.18 5.22%
2016 184.52 5.33%
2017 196.01 6.23%
2018 204.92 4.55%
2019 211.96 3.44%
2020 234.46 10.62%
2021 273.76 16.76% End of October 2021

Page 39
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

ional Home Price Index, Percent Change from Year Ago of (Index Jan 2000=100), Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Page 40
 Moody's Rates

FRED Graph Observations

Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

AAA Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Annual
observation_dAAA % Rate
1919-01-01 5.73 5.73%
1920-01-01 6.26 6.26%
1921-01-01 5.50 5.50%
1922-01-01 5.08 5.08%
1923-01-01 5.09 5.09%
1924-01-01 4.95 4.95%
1925-01-01 4.85 4.85%
1926-01-01 4.68 4.68%
1927-01-01 4.46 4.46%
1928-01-01 4.61 4.61%
1929-01-01 4.67 4.67%
1930-01-01 4.52 4.52%
1931-01-01 5.32 5.32%
1932-01-01 4.59 4.59%
1933-01-01 4.50 4.50%
1934-01-01 3.81 3.81%
1935-01-01 3.44 3.44%
1936-01-01 3.10 3.10%
1937-01-01 3.21 3.21%
1938-01-01 3.08 3.08%
1939-01-01 2.94 2.94%
1940-01-01 2.71 2.71%
1941-01-01 2.80 2.80%
1942-01-01 2.81 2.81%
1943-01-01 2.74 2.74%
1944-01-01 2.70 2.70%
1945-01-01 2.61 2.61%
1946-01-01 2.61 2.61%
1947-01-01 2.86 2.86%
1948-01-01 2.79 2.79%
1949-01-01 2.58 2.58%
1950-01-01 2.67 2.67%
1951-01-01 3.01 3.01%
1952-01-01 2.97 2.97%
1953-01-01 3.13 3.13%
1954-01-01 2.90 2.90%
1955-01-01 3.15 3.15%
1956-01-01 3.75 3.75%
1957-01-01 3.81 3.81%

Page 41
 Moody's Rates

1958-01-01 4.08 4.08%

1959-01-01 4.58 4.58%
1960-01-01 4.35 4.35%
1961-01-01 4.42 4.42%
1962-01-01 4.24 4.24%
1963-01-01 4.35 4.35%
1964-01-01 4.44 4.44%
1965-01-01 4.68 4.68%
1966-01-01 5.39 5.39%
1967-01-01 6.19 6.19%
1968-01-01 6.45 6.45%
1969-01-01 7.72 7.72%
1970-01-01 7.64 7.64%
1971-01-01 7.25 7.25%
1972-01-01 7.08 7.08%
1973-01-01 7.68 7.68%
1974-01-01 8.89 8.89%
1975-01-01 8.79 8.79%
1976-01-01 7.98 7.98%
1977-01-01 8.19 8.19%
1978-01-01 9.16 9.16%
1979-01-01 10.74 10.74%
1980-01-01 13.21 13.21%
1981-01-01 14.23 14.23%
1982-01-01 11.83 11.83%
1983-01-01 12.57 12.57%
1984-01-01 12.13 12.13%
1985-01-01 10.16 10.16%
1986-01-01 8.49 8.49%
1987-01-01 10.11 10.11%
1988-01-01 9.57 9.57%
1989-01-01 8.86 8.86%
1990-01-01 9.05 9.05%
1991-01-01 8.31 8.31%
1992-01-01 7.98 7.98%
1993-01-01 6.93 6.93%
1994-01-01 8.46 8.46%
1995-01-01 6.82 6.82%
1996-01-01 7.20 7.20%
1997-01-01 6.76 6.76%
1998-01-01 6.22 6.22%
1999-01-01 7.55 7.55%
2000-01-01 7.21 7.21%
2001-01-01 6.77 6.77%
2002-01-01 6.21 6.21%
2003-01-01 5.62 5.62%
2004-01-01 5.47 5.47%
2005-01-01 5.37 5.37%
2006-01-01 5.32 5.32%
2007-01-01 5.49 5.49%

Page 42
 Moody's Rates

2008-01-01 5.05 5.05%

2009-01-01 5.26 5.26%
2010-01-01 5.02 5.02%
2011-01-01 3.93 3.93%
2012-01-01 3.65 3.65%
2013-01-01 4.62 4.62%
2014-01-01 3.79 3.79%
2015-01-01 3.97 3.97%
2016-01-01 4.06 4.06%
2017-01-01 3.51 3.51%
2018-01-01 4.02 4.02%
2019-01-01 3.01 3.01%

Page 43
 Moody's Rates

FRED Graph Observations

Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BAA Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Annual
observation_date BAA
1919-01-01 7.77 7.77%
1920-01-01 8.56 8.56%
1921-01-01 7.61 7.61%
1922-01-01 7.02 7.02%
1923-01-01 7.38 7.38%
1924-01-01 6.46 6.46%
1925-01-01 6.15 6.15%
1926-01-01 5.68 5.68%
1927-01-01 5.32 5.32%
1928-01-01 5.60 5.60%
1929-01-01 5.95 5.95%
1930-01-01 6.71 6.71%
1931-01-01 10.42 10.42%
1932-01-01 8.42 8.42%
1933-01-01 7.75 7.75%
1934-01-01 6.23 6.23%
1935-01-01 5.30 5.30%
1936-01-01 4.53 4.53%
1937-01-01 5.73 5.73%
1938-01-01 5.27 5.27%
1939-01-01 4.92 4.92%
1940-01-01 4.45 4.45%
1941-01-01 4.38 4.38%
1942-01-01 4.28 4.28%
1943-01-01 3.82 3.82%
1944-01-01 3.49 3.49%
1945-01-01 3.10 3.10%
1946-01-01 3.17 3.17%
1947-01-01 3.52 3.52%
1948-01-01 3.53 3.53%
1949-01-01 3.31 3.31%
1950-01-01 3.20 3.20%
1951-01-01 3.61 3.61%
1952-01-01 3.51 3.51%
1953-01-01 3.74 3.74%
1954-01-01 3.45 3.45%
1955-01-01 3.62 3.62%
1956-01-01 4.37 4.37%
1957-01-01 5.03 5.03%

Page 44
 Moody's Rates

1958-01-01 4.85 4.85%

1959-01-01 5.28 5.28%
1960-01-01 5.10 5.10%
1961-01-01 5.10 5.10%
1962-01-01 4.92 4.92%
1963-01-01 4.85 4.85%
1964-01-01 4.81 4.81%
1965-01-01 5.02 5.02%
1966-01-01 6.18 6.18%
1967-01-01 6.93 6.93%
1968-01-01 7.23 7.23%
1969-01-01 8.65 8.65%
1970-01-01 9.12 9.12%
1971-01-01 8.38 8.38%
1972-01-01 7.93 7.93%
1973-01-01 8.48 8.48%
1974-01-01 10.63 10.63%
1975-01-01 10.56 10.56%
1976-01-01 9.12 9.12%
1977-01-01 8.99 8.99%
1978-01-01 9.94 9.94%
1979-01-01 12.06 12.06%
1980-01-01 15.14 15.14%
1981-01-01 16.55 16.55%
1982-01-01 14.14 14.14%
1983-01-01 13.75 13.75%
1984-01-01 13.40 13.40%
1985-01-01 11.58 11.58%
1986-01-01 9.97 9.97%
1987-01-01 11.29 11.29%
1988-01-01 10.65 10.65%
1989-01-01 9.82 9.82%
1990-01-01 10.43 10.43%
1991-01-01 9.26 9.26%
1992-01-01 8.81 8.81%
1993-01-01 7.69 7.69%
1994-01-01 9.10 9.10%
1995-01-01 7.49 7.49%
1996-01-01 7.89 7.89%
1997-01-01 7.32 7.32%
1998-01-01 7.23 7.23%
1999-01-01 8.19 8.19%
2000-01-01 8.02 8.02%
2001-01-01 8.05 8.05%
2002-01-01 7.45 7.45%
2003-01-01 6.60 6.60%
2004-01-01 6.15 6.15%
2005-01-01 6.32 6.32%
2006-01-01 6.22 6.22%
2007-01-01 6.65 6.65%

Page 45
 Moody's Rates

2008-01-01 8.43 8.43%

2009-01-01 6.37 6.37%
2010-01-01 6.10 6.10%
2011-01-01 5.25 5.25%
2012-01-01 4.63 4.63%
2013-01-01 5.38 5.38%
2014-01-01 4.74 4.74%
2015-01-01 5.46 5.46%
2016-01-01 4.83 4.83%
2017-01-01 4.22 4.22%
2018-01-01 5.13 5.13%
2019-01-01 3.88 3.88%

Page 46