Professional Documents
Culture Documents
US T.Bond
US T.Bill
Real Estate
Gold
Inflation Rate
Real Returns
Arithmetic Average Return
Risk Premium
FAQ
How precise are the annual
numbers?
I use the 3-month US treasury bill, again choosing it over the 6-month because of
longevity. While I used to report the end of the year number as the return on the T.Bill
for the year, I have replaced that with the average T.Bill rate over the year, since that is
a better representation.
I obtain the yield on a Moody's Aaa and Baa corporate bond yields from FRED and
then compute the return on the bond, using the same approach that I use for the US
T.Bond.
I use the home price data that Robert Shiller reports on his webpage to compute a real
estate return on residential real estate. That series has now morphed into the Case-
Shiller Index.
Year-end prices for gold, per oz,
I use the CPI for all urban consumers, reported on FRED.
For each of the data series. I computre a real return by removing the inflatin for the year
from the nominal return, using (1+ Nominal Rate)/ (1+Inflation Rate) -1.
A simple average of the annual returns over the specified period (10 yrs, 50 yrs etc.)
A compounded average of the returns over the period. This is most simply computed by
dividing the value you would have at the end of the period by the value at the beginning
and then computing the compouded average. To compute the cumulated value on both
stocks and bonds, I assume that dividends/coupons get reinvested back.
The risk premium is the difference in the annualized return on stocks and the
annualized return on T.Bonds and on T.Bills over the specified period.
FAQ
Since the S&P and US treasuries are liquid and the underlying data is widely dispersed,
the annual numbers are reliable.
The returns, especially on stocks and bonds, are noisy, with up years and down years.
The averages that have been computed come with error, and I have computed standard
errros in each of the numbers (especially the risk premiums). Note that even with the
longest data series, there is substantial standard error and it becomes explosively large
for shorter periods.
Normally, when you buy a 10-year bond and hold it for a year, you will end up with a
9-year bond. While I could compute the return using a 9-year maturity, and the answer
will be fairly close to what I report, I want to keep the 10-year rmaturity going for
consistency in my risk premium computation. Put simply, think of the return on the 10-
year bond as the one you would have if the coupon changed, but the maturity is reset to
10 year at the end of the year.
Returns by year
S&P 500
(include
s Baa
dividen 3-month US T. Bond Corporate
Year ds) T.Bill (10-year) Bond Real Estate Gold*
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% 3.22% 1.49% 0.10%
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% 3.02% -2.06% -0.15%
1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54% 0.54% -4.30% 0.10%
1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56% -15.68% -8.15% -17.38%
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% 23.59% -10.47% 21.28%
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% 12.97% -3.81% 27.26%
1934 -1.19% 0.28% 7.96% 18.82% 2.91% 31.75%
1935 46.74% 0.17% 4.47% 13.31% 9.77% 0.43%
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02% 11.38% 3.22% 0.09%
1937 -35.34% 0.28% 1.38% -4.42% 2.56% -0.23%
1938 29.28% 0.07% 4.21% 9.24% -0.87% 0.17%
1939 -1.10% 0.05% 4.41% 7.98% -1.30% -1.23%
1940 -10.67% 0.04% 5.40% 8.65% 3.31% -1.66%
1941 -12.77% 0.13% -2.02% 5.01% -8.38% 0.00%
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29% 5.18% 3.33% 0.00%
Page 5
Returns by year
Page 6
Returns by year
Page 7
Returns by year
Note
* Prior to 1971, gold prices were fixed and with the gold standard in place, and were mostly stable.
Page 8
Returns by year
In US Dollars
Estimates of risk premiums from 1928, over the last 50 years and over the last 10 years
are provided at the bottom of this table.
Page 9
Returns by year
Page 10
Returns by year
Page 11
Returns by year
Page 12
Returns by year
S&P 500
Stocks - Historical (includes 3-month
Stocks - Baa Corp risk Inflation dividends) T. Bill !0-year Baa Corp Real
Bonds Bond premium Rate 2 (Real) T.Bonds Bonds Estate3
42.98% 40.59% -1.16% 45.49% 4.29% 2.01% 4.43% 2.68%
-12.50% -11.32% 0.58% -8.83% 2.56% 3.60% 2.42% -2.63%
-29.66% -25.66% -6.40% -20.01% 11.69% 11.68% 7.41% 2.24%
-41.28% -28.16% -9.32% -38.07% 12.82% 7.45% -7.02% 1.29%
-17.43% -32.23% -10.27% 1.82% 12.64% 21.25% 37.74% -0.21%
48.13% 37.02% 0.76% 48.85% 0.20% 1.08% 12.11% -4.54%
-9.15% -20.00% 1.52% -2.66% -1.22% 6.35% 17.04% 1.37%
42.27% 33.43% 2.99% 42.49% -2.74% 1.44% 10.02% 6.58%
26.93% 20.56% 1.45% 30.06% -1.26% 3.52% 9.79% 1.74%
-36.72% -30.92% 2.86% -37.13% -2.51% -1.44% -7.07% -0.29%
25.07% 20.05% -2.78% 32.98% 2.92% 7.19% 12.36% 1.96%
-5.51% -9.08% 0.00% -1.10% 0.05% 4.41% 7.98% -1.30%
-16.08% -19.32% 0.71% -11.31% -0.67% 4.65% 7.88% 2.57%
-10.75% -17.78% 9.93% -20.65% -8.91% -10.87% -4.48% -16.66%
16.88% 13.99% 9.03% 9.30% -7.97% -6.18% -3.53% -5.23%
Page 13
Returns by year
Page 14
Returns by year
Page 15
Returns by year
S&P 500
(includes 3-month
dividends T. Bill !0-year Baa Corp Real
)2 (Real) T.Bonds Bonds Estate3
1928-2023 8.40% 0.32% 1.86% 3.90% 1.28%
1974-2023 8.42% 0.46% 2.73% 4.87% 1.61%
2014-2023 9.98% -1.43% -0.78% 2.01% 4.16%
Page 16
Returns by year
Gold
1.27%
-0.73%
6.94%
-8.90%
35.16%
26.30%
29.78%
-2.48%
-1.34%
-3.00%
3.03%
-1.23%
-2.35%
-9.03%
-8.28%
Page 17
Returns by year
-2.87%
-2.25%
0.29%
-15.35%
-8.12%
-2.66%
-7.00%
3.55%
-5.63%
-1.24%
0.09%
0.95%
-0.40%
-2.86%
-3.06%
-1.30%
-1.50%
-0.86%
-0.72%
-1.27%
-2.01%
-1.16%
-1.83%
-3.22%
-3.67%
7.42%
-0.84%
-14.23%
13.00%
43.88%
58.76%
48.22%
-29.80%
-8.70%
14.96%
25.71%
100.03%
2.52%
-38.11%
11.36%
-19.83%
Page 18
Returns by year
-22.51%
2.13%
17.56%
19.36%
-18.84%
-7.15%
-8.81%
-11.20%
-8.45%
14.46%
-4.65%
-1.51%
-7.71%
-22.72%
-2.40%
-1.78%
-8.58%
-0.84%
22.53%
17.50%
1.26%
13.96%
20.16%
26.72%
4.34%
21.61%
27.41%
8.70%
3.86%
-28.69%
-0.53%
-12.66%
5.93%
10.31%
-2.87%
16.38%
22.55%
-10.21%
-5.54%
9.84%
Page 19
Returns by year
eturn
Gold
3.27%
4.11%
3.32%
Page 20
S&P 500 & Raw Data
Page 21
S&P 500 & Raw Data
Page 22
S&P 500 & Raw Data
Page 23
S&P 500 & Raw Data
Return on
Returns
Baa on Real Estate
3.22% 1.49%
3.02% -2.06%
0.54% -4.30%
-15.68% -8.15%
23.59% -10.47%
12.97% -3.81%
18.82% 2.91%
13.31% 9.77%
11.38% 3.22%
-4.42% 2.56%
9.24% -0.87%
7.98% -1.30%
8.65% 3.31%
5.01% -8.38%
5.18% 3.33%
8.04% 11.45%
6.57% 16.58%
6.80% 11.78%
2.51% 24.10%
0.26% 21.26%
3.44% 2.06%
5.38% 0.09%
4.24% 3.64%
-0.19% 6.05%
4.44% 4.41%
1.62% 11.52%
6.16% 0.92%
2.04% 0.00%
-2.35% 0.91%
-0.72% 2.72%
6.43% 0.66%
1.57% 0.11%
6.66% 0.77%
5.10% 0.98%
6.50% 0.32%
5.46% 2.14%
5.16% 1.26%
3.19% 1.66%
Page 24
S&P 500 & Raw Data
-3.45% 1.22%
0.90% 2.32%
4.85% 4.13%
-2.03% 6.99%
5.65% 8.22%
14.00% 4.24%
11.41% 2.98%
4.32% 3.42%
-4.38% 10.07%
11.05% 6.76%
19.75% 8.20%
9.95% 14.66%
3.14% 15.71%
-2.01% 13.74%
-3.32% 7.40%
8.46% 5.08%
29.05% 0.57%
16.19% 4.75%
15.62% 4.67%
23.86% 7.47%
21.35% 9.62%
2.81% 7.85%
14.38% 7.22%
15.95% 4.39%
6.28% -0.69%
18.93% -0.17%
11.31% 0.82%
15.47% 2.16%
-0.97% 2.52%
21.29% 1.79%
3.42% 2.43%
12.75% 4.02%
7.63% 6.44%
0.91% 7.68%
9.39% 9.29%
8.54% 6.68%
12.14% 9.56%
12.32% 9.81%
10.35% 13.64%
5.30% 13.51%
5.20% 1.73%
Page 25
S&P 500 & Raw Data
4.84% -5.40%
-3.54% -12.00%
20.21% -3.86%
9.41% -4.11%
12.26% -3.89%
9.33% 6.44%
-0.98% 10.71%
10.78% 4.51%
-1.50% 5.20%
11.52% 5.30%
9.23% 6.21%
-3.27% 4.52%
15.25% 3.69%
10.60% 10.43%
0.93% 18.87%
-15.14% 5.67%
8.74% 6.29%
Page 26
T. Bond yield & return
Page 27
T. Bond yield & return
Page 28
T. Bond yield & return
Page 29
T. Bond yield & return
ents - the promised coupon at the start of the year and the price change due to interest rate changes.
ed at the end of 1927) - Price change on a bond with a coupon rate of 3.17%, when the interest rate goes to 3.45%.
Page 30
T. Bond yield & return
Page 31
T. Bill rates
DTB3 3-Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate, Discount Basis, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Page 32
T. Bill rates
Page 33
T. Bill rates
Page 34
T. Bill rates
Page 35
Inflation Rate
CPIAUCNS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average, Percent Change from Year Ago of (Index 19
Frequency: Annual
observation_dCPIAUCNS
1914 1.0 1.00%
1915 2.0 1.98%
1916 12.6 12.62%
1917 18.1 18.10%
1918 20.4 20.44%
1919 14.5 14.55%
1920 2.6 2.65%
1921 -10.8 -10.82%
1922 -2.3 -2.31%
1923 2.4 2.37%
1924 0.0 0.00%
1925 3.5 3.47%
1926 -1.1 -1.12%
1927 -2.3 -2.26%
1928 -1.2 -1.16%
1929 0.6 0.58%
1930 -6.4 -6.40%
1931 -9.3 -9.32%
1932 -10.3 -10.27%
1933 0.8 0.76%
1934 1.5 1.52%
1935 3.0 2.99%
1936 1.4 1.45%
1937 2.9 2.86%
1938 -2.8 -2.78%
1939 0.0 0.00%
1940 0.7 0.71%
1941 9.9 9.93%
1942 9.0 9.03%
1943 3.0 2.96%
1944 2.3 2.30%
1945 2.2 2.25%
1946 18.1 18.13%
1947 8.8 8.84%
1948 2.7 2.73% 2.7
1949 -1.8 -1.83% -1.8
1950 5.8 5.80% 5.8
1951 6.0 5.96% 6.0
1952 0.9 0.91% 0.9
Page 36
Inflation Rate
Page 37
Inflation Rate
Page 38
Inflation Rate
cent Change from Year Ago of (Index 1982-1984=100), Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Page 39
Summary for ppt
Page 40
Home Prices (Raw Data)
Home Price data from Robert Shiller's website. FRED Graph Observations
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Page 41
Home Prices (Raw Data)
Page 42
Home Prices (Raw Data)
Page 43
Home Prices (Raw Data)
ller U.S. National Home Price Index, Percent Change from Year Ago of (Index Jan 2000=100), Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Page 44
Home Prices (Raw Data)
onally Adjusted
Page 45
Moody's Rates
AAA Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency: Annual
observation_dAAA % Rate
1919-01-01 5.73 5.73%
1920-01-01 6.26 6.26%
1921-01-01 5.50 5.50%
1922-01-01 5.08 5.08%
1923-01-01 5.09 5.09%
1924-01-01 4.95 4.95%
1925-01-01 4.85 4.85%
1926-01-01 4.68 4.68%
1927-01-01 4.46 4.46%
1928-01-01 4.61 4.61%
1929-01-01 4.67 4.67%
1930-01-01 4.52 4.52%
1931-01-01 5.32 5.32%
1932-01-01 4.59 4.59%
1933-01-01 4.50 4.50%
1934-01-01 3.81 3.81%
1935-01-01 3.44 3.44%
1936-01-01 3.10 3.10%
1937-01-01 3.21 3.21%
1938-01-01 3.08 3.08%
1939-01-01 2.94 2.94%
1940-01-01 2.71 2.71%
1941-01-01 2.80 2.80%
1942-01-01 2.81 2.81%
1943-01-01 2.74 2.74%
1944-01-01 2.70 2.70%
1945-01-01 2.61 2.61%
1946-01-01 2.61 2.61%
1947-01-01 2.86 2.86%
1948-01-01 2.79 2.79%
1949-01-01 2.58 2.58%
1950-01-01 2.67 2.67%
1951-01-01 3.01 3.01%
1952-01-01 2.97 2.97%
1953-01-01 3.13 3.13%
1954-01-01 2.90 2.90%
1955-01-01 3.15 3.15%
1956-01-01 3.75 3.75%
1957-01-01 3.81 3.81%
Page 46
Moody's Rates
Page 47
Moody's Rates
Page 48
Moody's Rates
BAA Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency: Annual
observation_date BAA
1919-01-01 7.77 7.77%
1920-01-01 8.56 8.56%
1921-01-01 7.61 7.61%
1922-01-01 7.02 7.02%
1923-01-01 7.38 7.38%
1924-01-01 6.46 6.46%
1925-01-01 6.15 6.15%
1926-01-01 5.68 5.68%
1927-01-01 5.32 5.32%
1928-01-01 5.60 5.60%
1929-01-01 5.95 5.95%
1930-01-01 6.71 6.71%
1931-01-01 10.42 10.42%
1932-01-01 8.42 8.42%
1933-01-01 7.75 7.75%
1934-01-01 6.23 6.23%
1935-01-01 5.30 5.30%
1936-01-01 4.53 4.53%
1937-01-01 5.73 5.73%
1938-01-01 5.27 5.27%
1939-01-01 4.92 4.92%
1940-01-01 4.45 4.45%
1941-01-01 4.38 4.38%
1942-01-01 4.28 4.28%
1943-01-01 3.82 3.82%
1944-01-01 3.49 3.49%
1945-01-01 3.10 3.10%
1946-01-01 3.17 3.17%
1947-01-01 3.52 3.52%
1948-01-01 3.53 3.53%
1949-01-01 3.31 3.31%
1950-01-01 3.20 3.20%
1951-01-01 3.61 3.61%
1952-01-01 3.51 3.51%
1953-01-01 3.74 3.74%
1954-01-01 3.45 3.45%
1955-01-01 3.62 3.62%
1956-01-01 4.37 4.37%
1957-01-01 5.03 5.03%
Page 49
Moody's Rates
Page 50
Moody's Rates
Page 51
End of year Real Estate Source of data: http://www.econ.yale.edu//~shiller/data.htm
1927 5.84
1928 5.92 Source for 1977https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
1929 5.80
1930 5.55
1931 5.10
1932 4.57
1933 4.39
1934 4.52
1935 4.96
1936 5.12
1937 5.25
1938 5.21
1939 5.14
1940 5.31
1941 4.86
1942 5.03
1943 5.60
1944 6.53
1945 7.30
1946 9.06
1947 10.99
1948 11.21
1949 11.22
1950 11.63
1951 12.33
1952 12.88
1953 14.36
1954 14.49
1955 14.49
1956 14.62
1957 15.02
1958 15.12
1959 15.14
1960 15.25
1961 15.40
1962 15.45
1963 15.78
1964 15.98
1965 16.25
1966 16.45
1967 16.83
1968 17.52
1969 18.75
1970 20.29
1971 21.15
1972 21.78
1973 22.53
1974 24.79
1975 26.47
1976 28.64
1977 32.84
1978 38.00
1979 43.22
1980 46.42
1981 48.78
1982 49.06
1983 51.39
1984 53.79
1985 57.81
1986 63.37
1987 68.34
1988 73.28
1989 76.50
1990 75.97
1991 75.84
1992 76.46
1993 78.11
1994 80.08
1995 81.51
1996 83.49
1997 86.85
1998 92.44
1999 99.54
2000 108.79
2001 116.06
2002 127.15
2003 139.63
2004 158.67
2005 180.11
2006 183.23
2007 173.34
2008 152.55
2009 146.66
2010 140.63
2011 135.17
2012 143.87
2013 159.28
2014 166.46
2015 175.12
2016 184.41
2017 195.85
2018 204.70
2019 212.25
2020 234.39
2021 278.63
2022 294.42
2023 312.95
Gold Prices
Page 54
Gold Prices
1976 $ 134.50
1977 $ 164.95
1978 $ 226.00
1979 $ 512.00
1980 $ 589.75
1981 $ 397.50
1982 $ 459.60
1983 $ 382.40
1984 $ 308.30
1985 $ 326.80
1986 $ 388.75
1987 $ 484.10
1988 $ 410.25
1989 $ 398.60
1990 $ 386.20
1991 $ 353.15
1992 $ 332.90
1993 $ 391.75
1994 $ 383.25
1995 $ 387.00
1996 $ 369.25
1997 $ 290.20
1998 $ 287.80
1999 $ 290.25
2000 $ 274.45
2001 $ 276.50
2002 $ 347.20
2003 $ 416.25
2004 $ 435.60
2005 $ 513.00
2006 $ 632.00
2007 $ 833.75
2008 $ 869.75
2009 $ 1,087.50
2010 $ 1,405.50
2011 $ 1,574.50
2012 $ 1,664.00
2013 $ 1,204.50
2014 $ 1,206.00
2015 $ 1,060.00
2016 $ 1,145.90
2017 $ 1,291.00
2018 $ 1,279.00
2019 $ 1,523.00
2020 $ 1,891.10
2021 $ 1,820.10
2022 $ 1,830.10
2023 $ 2,072.81
Page 55
Gold Prices
Page 56
Gold Prices
Page 57