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If you’re on your own and don’t know where to start, it can feel impossible.
That’s why we decided to write The NFT Bible. To share our knowledge, the
lessons learned along the way, and common scams to watch out for.
This book is written from our experience in trading NFTs, including some
costly lessons. Learn from this book so you don’t make the same mistakes.
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CONTENTS
WHAT IS AN NFT?….………………………………………………....………...6
WALLETS …………………………………………………………………...…. 14
HOT WALLET …………………………………………………………... 14
HARDWARE WALLET ……………………………………………….... 15
BLOCKCHAINS ……………………………………………………………..… 30
MARKETPLACES …………………………………………………………..… 35
STRATEGY ………………………………………………………………….… 39
TOP DOWN …………………………………………………………….. 39
BOTTOM UP ………………………………………………………....… 40
VALUE …………………………………………………………………... 40
LIQUIDITY PROVIDER ……………………………………………..… 41
NEWS TRADING …………………………………………………….… 43
COPY TRADING ……………………………………………………….. 44
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SENTIMENT ……………………………………………………………. 45
UPCOMING MINTS ……………………………………………………. 46
TWITTER ……………………………………………………………..… 47
MOMENTUM ………………………………………………………....… 48
ANALYSIS …………………………………………………………………...… 49
MARKET ANALYSIS ………………………………………………...… 50
PROJECT ANALYSIS ……………………………………………….… 53
MINTING ……………………………………………………………...… 53
MINT PRICE ………………………………………………………….… 54
MINT TYPES ………………………………………………………....… 55
FAIR LAUNCH ………………………………………………………..… 55
BONDING CURVE …………………………………………………….. 56
DUTCH AUCTION ……………………………………………………... 57
WHITE LIST …………………………………………………………..… 57
ROADMAP …………………………………………………………....… 59
TEAM ………………………………………………………………….… 60
UTILITY …………………………………………………………………. 61
MARKETING ………………………………………………………….... 65
OWNER DISTRIBUTION …………………………………...……....… 66
SOCIAL FOLLOWING ……………………………………………….... 69
COMMUNITY ………………………………………………………...… 71
VOLUME & NUMBER OF SALES ………………………………….... 74
FLOOR PRICE & AVERAGE PRICE ………………………………... 75
HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE ……………………………………….. 79
FLOOR DEPTH ………………………………………………………... 80
SCARCITY (SUPPLY) …………………………………………….…… 82
LTS RATIO ………………………………………………………….…... 86
MEME FACTOR ………………………………………………………... 89
CELEB / INFLUENCER INVOLVEMENT ………………………….… 90
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RARIRTY ……………………………………………………………...... 94
WHEN TO BUY ……………………………………………………….. 101
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WHAT IS AN NFT?
NFT stands for non-fungible token.
The classic example is currency: $10 dollars is always $10 dollars, even
two $5 bills. Regardless of the bill’s condition.
There is only one original Mona Lisa by Leonardo da Vinci. The painting is
one of a kind and cannot be replaced. The Mona Lisa is non-fungible.
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The word fungible only really applies when comparing multiple items.
Is the phone or computer you are reading this book from fungible?
There is no other phone with the same apps, same contacts, same
messages, same scratches.
My Tinder app is almost certainly located in a different spot than yours (on
page 2 of my “finance” folder).
What if we wipe everything off your phone. Then is it fungible with every
other used one on ebay?
Not if you value the scratch on the screen that reminds you of the time your
ex-girlfriend dropped it while you were on vacation in Cancun.
So you can see the idea of fungibility also depends on who you’re asking.
Now that we’ve established what fungible and non-fungible are, let’s talk
tokens.
Fungible tokens have always been the norm in crypto.
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1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin
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The “value” of something is what the market will pay for it.
CyberKongz: Genesis are the original collection, with only 1,000 total NFTs.
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This, along with other benefits to holding (discussed later in the book)
create strong demand for the Genesis collection.
There are 14,427 NFTs in the VX collection. These NFTs don’t provide the
same benefits to holders as the Genesis collection.
Due to the much higher supply and lower demand, the CyberKongz VX sell
for just 1 ETH, compared to 80 ETH with the Genesis collection.
Now that we’ve covered the basics of what moves price, let’s dive into the
main types of NFT buyers.
1. Collectors
2. Investors & speculators
3. Flexers
COLLECTORS
Just like there are collectors of baseball cards, rare coins, stamps and just
about anything you can think of, there are NFT collectors.
True collectors usually aren’t looking for a quick flip, but typically hope that
their collections will increase in value over time.
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In the NFT space, the word “collector” is sometimes used very loosely
when the more accurate word is “speculator”.
The NFT was from the Fidenza collection, which consists of 999 unique NFTs
that are computer generated by an algorithm.
Just two months after the purchase, Fidenzas were on fire. Selling for 100+
ETH.
But Kevin's Fidenza had some rare traits and he wasn't in a hurry to sell…
So he listed the piece for a staggering 777 ETH ($2.5M), expecting it to sit.
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Most of the buyers in the NFT market at this time fall into the category of
speculators.
FLEXERS
‘The Bored Ape Yacht Club’ NFT collection has exploded in popularity with
celebrities.
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The idea behind this “digital flex” is: more people (social followers) will see
your Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT profile picture than the number of people
that will see you driving a Lamborghini or a Ferrari.
Plus you’ll probably have fewer people trying to race you at stop lights.
At time of writing, Bored Ape Yacht Club .jpgs are worth several hundreds
of thousands of dollars.
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WALLETS
Once you decided to buy an NFT, you need to figure out where you are
going to store it.
Wallets are how you make transactions on the blockchain, such as buying
and selling NFTs.
When you setup a wallet, you will be provided with a ‘seed phrase’ which is
a set of words that is essentially the password to your wallet.
If someone gets access to these words, they will have access to your
wallet.
Store these words safely offline. If you keep them on your email and your
email gets hacked, your wallet will be at risk.
When it comes to wallet, you have two options: hot wallet or hardware
wallet.
HOT WALLET
A hot wallet is an online web wallet. Typically these wallets are added to
your web browser as an extension.
These are the most convenient wallets to use, but are less secure than
using a hard wallet (discussed next).
Hot wallets are connected to the internet which could make them
vulnerable to online attacks, leading to stolen NFTs or cryptocurrency.
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Ethereum - MetaMask
Solana - Phantom
HARDWARE WALLETS
A hardware wallet is a physical device that must approve transactions
before they can process on the blockchain.
Nothing is actually stored on the wallet, so if it gets damaged you can buy
another to access your tokens as long as you still have your seed phrase.
Hardware wallets are more secure than hot wallets but require a few more
button clicks.
The two most popular hardware wallets are Ledger and Trezor.
We have used them both and they both work well, so get whichever one
you prefer.
You can purchase a Ledger Nano S for only $59.
Make sure that you buy directly from their website (linked above) as there
have been scams on third party websites like Amazon where tampered
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hardware wallets have been sold that drain your assets when you connect
them.
TYPES OF NFTS
NFTs and smart contracts have the ability to bring trust to transactions
without the need for a third party.
Soon, things like the title to your house will be an NFT. Why wouldn’t it be?
NFTs will become the backbone for digital and physical asset ownership.
For now, there are only a handful of NFT categories that get much
attention.
We’ll cover the ones that are most commonly bought and sold.
First, we’ll cover the most commonly traded NFT category: PFPs.
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PFPs have become online identities for people in the NFT community. You
may have never seen their actual face, but you know them by their NFT.
Much the way that different people wear certain brands of clothing to
portray a specific image, people are using PFPs to represent themselves
online.
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There are 10,000 NFTs in the CryptoPunk collection and at the time of
writing, the cheapest punk cost 84.95 ETH ($357,222.38 USD).
A lot of copycats and scammers have emerged due to the general success
of profile pic NFT projects.
A common tactic is to just copy a project but put it on a different blockchain.
Maybe with a slight tweak, maybe not.
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The project creators are usually the only ones who win.
“Isn’t this IP theft?” Yeah probably, but it’s difficult and costly to sue
somebody.
Also, due to anonymity, you likely don’t even know who is behind the
project.
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While the morality of these projects can be debated, there are also straight
up scammers who attempt to fool people into believing they are buying the
original project, or another collection from the original project creators.
We will cover how to avoid common scams in more detail later in the book.
GAMING
Back in my day when you bought a videogame you paid once and you had
access to everything in the game.
It costs nothing to play, but if you want to progress faster or get access to
special items, you have to pay.
➡️ ➡️
The next model? Play to earn.
Pay to play Freemium Play to earn
Games like Axie Infinity allow players to earn crypto tokens by playing the
game.
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Axie Infinity has swept the Philippines. Kids, adults, and even grandparents
play Axie Infinity from their smartphones as a source of income.
Players are paid with in-game tokens called ‘Smooth Love Potion’ which
can be exchanged for other other tokens and converted to a local currency.
To play the game, you need 3 NFT game characters called Axies.
The price of an Axie varies with the Axie market, but also with the unique
properties of the NFT (rarity traits).
These Axies below are called Aquas from the Aquatic class.
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Some unique properties for these NFTs are: the number of times the Axie
has been bred, pureness (depends on dominant and recessive traits), and
the abilities each Axie comes equipped with.
To breed NFTs in this game you must pay with a combination of Axie
Infintiy (AXS) tokens and Smooth Love Potion (SLP) tokens.
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What kind of incentives are there to stimulate demand for these tokens?
Creating the right tokenomics is easier said than done. Game developers
sometimes have to tweak the tokenomics when things get out of balance.
CryptoKitties were the first NFT project that allowed owners to “breed” and
create new NFTs that could be sold.
The problem is that there was nothing to slow down the breeding.
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Gaming NFTs and the Play to Earn model are expected to revolutionize the
gaming industry and will probably enjoy some booms and busts along the
way.
A full fledged game can take years to develop, if the team even has the
ability.
Holders will get bored during the building phase and you could see prices
dip.
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PHOTOGRAPHY
Photographers have to be careful releasing their original photos on the
internet because it’s so easy to just right-click + save-as.
Now photographers and other artists can mint their artwork into NFTs on
the blockchain.
This solves the question of which photo is the original and which is the
copy because one isn’t an NFT and no time-stamped record of it will exist
on the blockchain.
“Nice try right-clicker… You also won’t get the 2 ETH on the sale.”
People have always bought knock off watches and purses. NFTs make it
obvious which photo is a legit NFT and which one is literally just a .jpg.
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Since there are less items in the collection you can see a
sharp rise in the floor price if demand for the project
increases suddenly.
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There are YouTube videos that guide you through the entire process.
More and more photographers are looking to mint their photographs into
NFTs to sell.
Because these collections are typically small in number, they don’t have the
ability to create a large community of holders.
This means that they can easily be forgotten by the marketplace. Because
of this, photography NFTs have MASSIVE liquidity risk.
If attention for a certain photography project dries up then liquidity for the
collection could also flatline.
This means you’re hodl’ing… And not by choice, but because there are no
buyers.
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GENERATIVE ART
One of the challenges of science is to boil the world down to an algorithm
of everything.
Artists are now computer programmers and using their talents to program
computers to generate art using algorithms, striking an interesting balance
between science and art.
Who would have guessed that Snoop Dogg has an appreciation for
generative art and NFTs?
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The allure of generative art occurs at the mint or the genesis of the NFT.
After clicking mint, the algorithm executes the computer code by the artist.
During execution of the code, non-funigble properties of the NFT are being
calculated and assigned.
Once the algorithm has finished, the image is minted into an NFT on the
blockchain.
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BLOCKCHAINS
Blockchain is the word of the decade.
When it comes to blockchains, and you want to sound smart at a party, all
you need to know is this...
Transactions like Peggy buying apples from Aunt Sue on this date & time.
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Once the transactions are added to the blockchain, the transactions are
final and irreversible.
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Ethereum blockchain.
One downside of the Ethereum blockchain is the expensive gas fees paid
to these nodes, or miners.
A gas fee is the transaction fee paid to the miner to add a transaction to the
blockchain.
Despite the expensive gas fees, Ethereum is still the most popular
blockchain for trading NFTs.
You should be aware that other blockchains for NFT trading do exist but
since Ethereum is the most popular, we will focus there.
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When trading NFTs on Ethereum, don’t forget to account for gas fees. If
you want to make money trading NFTs, you need to account for your costs.
You can mitigate some of the costly gas fees by transacting at “less busy
times” but we’ll touch more on that later.
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MARKETPLACES
While there are many NFT marketplaces. Our focus will be opensea.io
because Opensea has the most trading volume and liquidity.
This means Opensea has the most NFT sales out of all other NFT
marketplaces.
Though our focus will be on Ethereum NFTs on Opensea, the concepts and
techniques you see discussed in this book can be applied to all NFT
marketplaces and NFTs on other blockchains such as Solana and Polygon.
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NAVIGATING OPENSEA
Now is a good time to cover some NFT terms we will be using more going
forward in this book.
The Bored Ape Yacht Club has a trading volume of 227,800 ETH since inception.
If you could click on the first Bored Ape NFT on the collection page, you
would see these unique NFT properties.
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This shows the traits of the specific NFT and how rare each trait is within
the collection.
Only 2% of 10,000 BAYC NFTs have the ‘Black Holes T’ property for
Clothes.
You can calculate the number of NFTs with the ‘Black Holes T’ property.
10,000 x 2% = 200
Some NFT traders may use this concept of rarity to identify mispriced NFTs
or to gauge the resale value of their NFT.
What If two NFTs are of roughly equal price and roughly equal rarity?
Then an NFT collector may just pick whichever NFT suits their fancy.
OpenSea and many other NFT marketplaces allow users to submit offers
on NFTs.
Putting in offers can be a great way to get NFTs for 20%-30%+ lower than
listed price. You can offer as low as you want, but super lowballs are rarely
accepted.
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Before making a offer, you will need Wrapped Ethereum (WETH) in your
wallet, not ETH. Offers can only be made with WETH, DAI, or USDC.
1 WETH = 1 ETH
You can swap ETH for WETH directly on OpenSea or you can use a
decentralized exchange like Uniswap.org
These bids that can be fulfilled at a later date without any further action
from the bidder.
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STRATEGY
Before you’re ready to start buying
NFTs, you need to figure out what
your strategy is.
TOP DOWN
This approach involves making a bet on an entire industry or sector.
For example, you may think that NFTs as a whole are going to perform
well, but you don’t have confidence in your ability to pick specific winners.
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Or rather than build an index of the entire NFT market, you could build an
index within a specific sector, like gaming NFTs.
Since most people don’t have $300K for a CryptoPunk, another option is to
buy fractions of NFTs using a service like fractional.art that allows you to
buy small pieces of expensive NFTs.
BOTTOM UP
Rather than a top-down approach, you can choose an investing style that
focuses on the attributes of a particular NFT project.
In this style of investing, the overall market trends don’t matter as much to
you as the fundamentals of a project.
You may decide to anaylze projects based on the team and their track
record, the roadmap/vision of the project, the owner distribution, or many
other factors.
VALUE
NFTs are so new that it’s hard to give an “intrinsic value” to any of them.
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- You can get an NFT for less than the floor price of the collection (ex:
by putting in an offer)
- An NFT is listed below its rarity “value” based on the traits it has.
LIQUIDITY PROVIDER
The ‘liquidity provider’ strategy consists of putting in a lot of offers (normally
under floor price) on a collection.
Many people who use this strategy do so with the help of an offer bot that
allows them to put in a ton of offers on different NFTs all at once.
If the floor price of a collection is 1 ETH and you put in an offer for 0.8 ETH
on an NFT that gets accepted, you are immediately 0.2 ETH in profit.
We like to blast in a ton of offers that expire at midnight the same day on
NFTs in a collection that are listed near the floor price.
When you place an offer on an NFT, the seller will automatically get an
email from OpenSea notifying them of your offer.
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The short offer time frame puts pressure on the seller to make a decision.
If they haven’t received any (good) offers in a while, or they need some
quick liquidity, they may accept.
This short time-frame for the offer also ensures you don’t expose yourself
to the price risk of the collection for too long.
For example, say you put in a bid that expires in seven days for 0.8 ETH on
an NFT when floor prices are at 1 ETH.
Before you notice (and cancel your bid), the seller accepts your offer of 0.8
ETH and you just overpaid by 0.3 ETH. Whoops.
90%+ of the time your offers will not be accepted. If nobody accepts any of
your offers, don’t be afraid to do it again the next day.
People’s situations change every day. Someone might come across a new
NFT collection they want to buy into, but don’t have the funds.
When volume is down and collections aren’t getting many sales, it’s usually
a great time to put in offers. Sellers get fearful and are much more likely to
accept offers.
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NEWS TRADING
News affects stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and just about any other
asset price… NFTs are no different.
The day before Visa announced that they had bought a CryptoPunk, there
were 34 CryptoPunk sales. The day of the announcement? 354.
Within two days the average sale price had increased 68%.
News trading can be tricky in NFTs because there isn’t a ton of mainstream
coverage and it’s not every day that Visa buys a CryptoPunk.
If you’re looking to get into “news” trading, your best bet is to get your
“news” from influencers on Twitter and Youtube. Turn on notifications too.
Large accounts have the ability to move NFT prices much more than they
would most cryptocurrencies due to most NFTs having small market caps
and being very illiquid.
Just be careful, some influencers will pump up the prices of a project, then
dump their NFTs on their followers at higher prices.
Make sure the price hasn’t already pumped before you buy. These pumps
can often crash back down just as quickly.
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COPY TRADING
Copy trading is exactly what it sounds like.
There is also a possibility that they talk about their recent NFT purchase to
their followers, creating additional demand for the project.
Here is a list of accounts you can look at if you’re considering this method.
https://opensea.io/Pranksy
https://opensea.io/ZssBecker
https://opensea.io/EllioNFTrades
https://opensea.io/ET_Vault
https://opensea.io/Gennady
https://opensea.io/gary.veefriends.eth
https://opensea.io/NFTcollector888
https://opensea.io/Justinsun
https://opensea.io/DCLBlogger
There is a good chance that they didn’t actually even purchase many of the
NFTs in their wallet.
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SENTIMENT
“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful”
-Warren Buffet
The next day when their horse .jpg lost half its value overnight, they realize
they aren’t as certain about it as they had previously thought.
The visuals of a divorce run through their head as they image telling their
wife that they lost three months of mortgage payments on a picture of a
cartoon animal.
That’s when people panic sell to cut their losses. They list their NFT below
the floor price, creating a new lowest price to make sure theirs sells.
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UPCOMING MINTS
Buying projects at mint usually gives room for a lot of upside potential,
however it’s also the most risky since the project hasn’t proven itself yet.
In the project analysis section coming up we cover different mint types and
how they work.
If your strategy involves buying NFTs at mint, here are some websites you
can use to track upcoming mints:
- rarity.tools
- icy.tools
- howrare.is (Solana)
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TWITTER
Twitter is the social media platform of choice for all things crypto, including
NFTs.
You can find all sorts of insightful posts regarding current projects,
upcoming projects, analysis and more.
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MOMENTUM
Another strategy is trying to ride up a wave up momentum. This can be
dangerous because you don’t know when the demand will slow down.
Prices that rise quickly often fall just as quickly, so if you’re not in early, you
can get burned.
To see which projects are getting momentum in real-time you can go to the
activity page on OpenSea to see all sales as they happen.
Here we can see the Crypto Bull Society is getting a bunch of recent sales.
If you were trying to ride up a wave of momentum, the Crypto Bull Society
is a project you’d want to look deeper into.
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ANALYSIS
Now comes the meat and potatoes of NFT analysis.
We’re going top-down, starting with the broader NFT market, then to the
project level, and finally down to analyzing individual NFTs within a project.
The investing thesis that you have built will determine how much weight
you place on each of the aspects that we are about to cover.
For example, if your strategy involves quick flips, you’re probably not as
concerned with the strength of the community as you would be if you were
buying to hold long-term.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
Before diving into individual NFT projects, it’s best to take a step back and
look at the market as a whole.
Most NFT sales happen on OpenSea, so it’s a good proxy for the overall
market.
Volume and prices being down isn’t a bad thing if you believe in NFTs
long-term.
While prices are down it can be a great time to get quality NFTs at a
discount.
Sellers are also more willing to take offers for less than their asking price.
It’s not uncommon for sellers to accept offers for 20-30% less than floor
price when volume is down (depending on the project and level of FUD
among sellers).
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This allows you to get a discount on already discounted prices. (V good for
reducing risk)
These are the most recent 5 sales on the Lazy Lions at the time of making
this.
We can see that 4 of 5 most recent sales were in Wrapped Ether, or WETH
(the pink ETH icon = WETH).
This shows us that there are a lot of sellers accepting lower offers on their
NFTs.
This signifies a buyers market and downward pressure on prices when
sellers aren’t getting their asking prices and are willing to accept less.
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On the flip side, when volume and prices are up, it may be a good time to
consider selling.
Because many projects only have 10,000 NFTs or less, a big wave of
demand can quickly drive up prices due to the lack of liquidity.
These are the times when you can see floor prices 3x within days.
Within projects you’ll often see pumps that last 1-3 days and then correct
back down to slightly above pre-pump prices.
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PROJECT ANALYSIS
After looking at the conditions of the overall NFT market and the specific
blockchain you’ll be trading on, the next level of analysis is at the project
level.
This also applies for analyzing a collection within a larger project (Ex:
Mutant Bored Apes).
This is where most of your analysis will take place so make sure you take
the time to thoroughly understand the concepts.
These are not ordered by importance. Some of these will matter more than
others depending on your investing strategy.
MINTING
Minting is the birth of an NFT.
This is when the NFTs are first sold by the project creator.
Mints are often purchased directly from the project’s website, which
interacts with the smart contract on the back end.
If you know the contract address, it’s possible, but more complicated, to
mint directly from contract on etherscan.io (for Ethereum NFTs).
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MINT PRICE
NFT mints can raise millions of dollars for a project, depending on the mint
price of the NFTs.
Some projects do need to raise a lot of money if they have big, expensive
plans for the project. But this isn’t the case for most projects.
If a project’s mint price is too high, it makes it harder for the buyers of the
mint to be able to make a profit.
The project wins by selling out all their high priced NFTs, but their
community doesn’t get to see the gains.
While you shouldn’t expect every good project to be a free mint, you should
look with scrutiny at the projects that choose to price high.
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MINT TYPES
There are various ways an NFT can come into existence.
The way an NFT is minted can affect the price, transaction fees, supply and
more.
If your strategy includes minting NFTs, you need to know the different types
of mints and how they work.
FAIR LAUNCH
A fair launch is when all NFTs are priced at the same price and made
available to all buyers at the same time.
A downside of a fair launch is that it can cause ‘gas wars’ when there is
high demand for the NFT collection (especially for NFTs on the Ethereum
blockchain).
The ethereum miners that add transactions the to the blockchain choose
which transactions to process based on their bid.
If your “bid” is too low, there’s a chance that your transaction will fail (and
you’re still out the gas fee - ouch!).
During a mint, many buyers will bid high to ensure that their transaction is
processed.
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This can cause extremely high gas fees when a popular project launches.
BONDING CURVE
The goal of a bonding curve is to reward early adopters with lower prices.
In a set of NFTs, the earliest mints will cost less than the last mints in a
collection.
If you are an early minter, you could pay as little as 0.3 ETH per NFT, but if
you get in late, you could pay up for 0.6 ETH per NFT.
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DUTCH AUCTION
A dutch auction is like a reverse auction.
You can choose to wait for the price to get lower before you buy, but the
risk is that the collection sells out before you get a chance to buy.
The benefit of a dutch auction is that it can help to avoid gas wars since not
everyone is trying to purchase at the exact same time.
Often you will still see high gas prices for projects in high demand.
Buyers all quickly jump in when they see remaining quantity of NFTs get
lower and lower and they worry they may miss they chance.
WHITE LIST
A white list is a list of buyers who get early or exclusive access to a mint.
A collection may choose to ‘white list’ a portion of their NFT collection (ex:
1,000 of 10,000 reserved for white list) or the entire collection.
If you get on a white list, you are typically given a period of time in which
you can mint (1 hour, 12 hours, 1 day, etc).
This avoids gas wars during the mint. A common gripe about white lists is
the manner in which the white list is chosen.
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Many collections use Discord invite contests to get whitelist access, where
users who get a certain amount of Discord invites get onto the white list.
Discord users who are in NFT-related servers are typically spammed with a
ton of DMs because of these contests, which gets annoying.
Some people will completely write off a project because of these tactics, but
you shouldn’t do that.
If a project is using shady methods, that’s one thing, but don’t completely
write off a project because some of their advertising methods are a bit
annoying.
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ROADMAP
It has become common for projects to include a roadmap of future plans.
This space is still so early that just being different can be enough
sometimes.
When a project is the first of its kind it brings attention and can often create
demand and higher prices.
Is there something ultra unique about the art?
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If a project is doing something different than everyone else and you think
it’s cool, other people probably will too.
TEAM
If any part of your investment into a project is based on the roadmap of the
project, you’re really making a bet on the team or creator to follow through.
When a team is public, they can be held accountable to follow through with
their promises.
It doesn’t mean that all anon projects are scams. One of the benefits of the
blockchain is that people can choose to have anonymity.
Asking yourself these questions will make sure you don’t buy into a project
that has a team with little chance of success.
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UTILITY
Utility refers to benefits that come from holding an NFT.
Snoop Dogg sold NFTs that will be used as tickets to the parties he throws
in the metaverse.
For example, holders of Bored Apes were able to claim a free BAYC:
Kennel Club dog NFT.
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BAYC Kennel Club NFTs have a floor price of 2.8 ETH ($11,160 as of writing)
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$BANANA tokens can be used for several things, such as voting rights or
changing the name of your CyberKong.
But what drives the most demand is the ability to use 600 $BANANA
tokens to create a new “baby kong” NFT, which currently have a floor price
of 4.69 ETH (~$18,760).
Keep in mind, the price of the token will fluctuate with demand (or worst
case go to $0).
One regulatory risk for NFTs could be the Howey Test from
the 1930’s. This is a test by the SEC to determine what
qualifies as an investment contract and therefore subject
to U.S. securities laws.
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MARKETING
Crypto and NFT communities are very sensitive to marketing because
there are so many scams, but don’t let that make you think that all
marketing is bad.
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There’s nothing wrong with growing organically, but it can take a long time
in this noisy environment where 50+ projects launch per day.
OWNER DISTRIBUTION
Owner distribution is considered by many NFT traders to be one of their
highest ranking metrics.
People are less likely to sell their last NFT of a project, especially if there is
utility from holding the NFT.
If there are whales holding a large amount of NFTs in the project, they have
the ability to singlehandedly crash prices if they decide to dump their bags.
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In The Doge Pound collection there are 10,000 NFTs and ~5,400 owners
(measured by unique wallets).
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There are going to be some holders with way more than the average.
If we view the contract on EtherScan, we can see that there are 7 wallets
that hold 200+ Meebits.
What happens if any of these holders decide they want to exit their position
and sell all (or a large portion) of their NFTs?
It’s likely that the new supply of Meebits on the market would crash prices.
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We can see that lately the Meebits have been getting around 14 sales per
day.
If the largest holder of Meebits (owns 346) wanted to sell, they probably
couldn’t sell more than a few per day without tanking the prices.
If this holder were able to sell 3 per day, it would take them 115 days to
dump their entire holdings (without a new wave of demand).
This is because extra selling pressure can cause sellers to panic and
undercut each other, dropping the floor price of a collection.
SOCIAL FOLLOWING
A metric you probably want to consider when evaluating an NFT project is
their social following.
If a project only has a few followers on Twitter, Discord, IG, etc. it shows
that there aren’t many people who are interested in, or even know about
the project.
This can be especially important when evaluating a project before it mints.
First, a project needs enough interest to sell all of the NFTs in the
collection.
If a project has 200 followers, it’s unlikely that they’re going to sell out of
10,000 NFTs.
If you’re still interested in the collection, this would be a situation where you
don’t want to buy as soon as the mint goes live.
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Sit back and watch the mint numbers to see how many are selling. If it
looks like the project is on track to sell out, then jump in and get the mints.
Warning: you may pay higher gas fees doing this on Ethereum if there are
a bunch of other people trying to buy at the same time.
One way to check the amount of fake followers is to use a tool like
https://www.followeraudit.com/
We can’t speak to the accuracy of these tools though, since I’m sure
anyone who sells fake followers tries to have them appear active, so take
these tools with a grain of salt.
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You should also check the engagement (likes, comments, re-tweets, etc) of
the accounts, since engagement is harder (but not impossible) to fake.
🔥🔥🔥
Fake engagement usually consists of generic comments that could apply to
almost any post, such as “ ” or “love what you’re doing!”.
Other than the Twitter, you can also check a project’s Discord and Telegram
channels if available.
It’s possible for followers to be faked here also, or that members came from
invite contests and aren’t active or engaged with the project.
COMMUNITY
While the number of followers should be taken into consideration, the
quality of the community trumps in importance.
In the NFT space you’ll constantly hear people talking about the
“community” as an investment indicator.
If the majority of NFT holders believe in the project long-term then they are
less likely to sell or undercut the floor price.
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A strong community built around a project is one of the best indicators for
the future of that project.
CryptoDads have brought together a bunch of dads who are into NFTs and
created a vibrant community. (They also look oddly similar to Bob’s Burgers
animations)
Once the hype dies down after a mint, there needs to be a community built
for the project to last and to maintain/increase the value of the NFTs in the
collection.
Discord and Telegram channels are a good way to check the vibe of a
community.
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Are they only talking about the price? Communities only focused on price
will quickly move on when prices inevitably dip in the future.
Look for excitement about the progress and future of the project.
Are they creating memes and fan art? Discussing in-person meetups? All
good signs.
The Bored Ape Yacht Club has one of the strongest communities in the
NFT space.
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You can’t just sell an NFT any second you want to. There needs to be a
buyer.
When the market is fearful, buyers can be hard to come by even at reduced
prices.
When you check the activity of a collection on OpenSea you will be able to
see the daily number of sales, average sale price, and volume, which is just
the number of sales x the average sale price.
It’s critical that you check the number of daily sales a project is getting
before you buy.
Many projects can go weeks without a single sale, so when you buy into a
project you could be stuck holding it for a long time.
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Buying projects that have consistent daily sales means that you’ll probably
be able to at least sell your NFT, even if it isn’t at the price you want.
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If we look at the Cool Cats, we can see that OpenSea lists the floor price at
8.88 ETH.
When we filter for ‘Buy Now’ and sort from low to high price, we can see
the first NFT listed is Cool Cat #3711 for 8.88 ETH, which matches the floor
price listed by OpenSea.
As you look to the right you can see the prices increasing.
When you go into the activity page of the Cool Cats, you can see a list of all
the recent sales.
You can also see this graph that shows the trading history:
When you hover your mouse on a date, you can see that day’s number of
sales, average sale price, and volume.
The issue with this graph is that since it’s showing average sale price, high
priced sales (for a rare NFT in the collection) can make the average price
jump up.
To see the floor prices of an Ethereum NFT collection over time, you can
use this floor tracker: https://dune.xyz/smaroo/NFT-Floor-Trackers
Just copy the NFT’s contract address from the OpenSea page.
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Enter the contract address (exclude the 0 at the beginning of the contract
address) and the start date, then run the tracker.
You’ll be able to see a graph like this that shows the daily floor price of the
collection over the selected period.
We can see that the highest floor price was only 13.49 ETH, compared to
the highest average price (on the OpenSea chart) of 25.75 ETH.
If you buy or plan to buy floor priced NFTs then it only makes sense to pay
more attention to floor prices than average prices.
Plus you avoid being fooled by spikes in the graph due to one or two high
sales.
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HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE
Recently there has been a trend to go back to find early NFT projects that
have been forgotten.
The narrative is that these projects will hold value due to their historical
signficance.
It seems hard to believe that NFTs from 2017 can already be gaining
historical value...
But the great thing about the blockchain is that it’s time stamped.
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They are some of the earliest NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain and the
first profile picture collection.
Considering that we’re still in NFT infancy, there’s good reason these
projects are in demand.
FLOOR DEPTH
Most sales in a collection happen at or near the floor price.
A thick or thin floor refers to how many NFTs are for sale at or near the floor
price.
By analyzing the floor depth of an NFT collection, you can get an idea of
how easy it will be for prices to increase.
When the floor depth is thin, there is a potential for fast increases in price if
a wave of demand comes in.
Some analysts look to see how many NFTs would need to sell to raise floor
price by a certain amount (25%, 50%, etc).
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To raise the current floor price 50% would take 34 floor-priced sales.
The floor price of the Jungle Freaks is .299 ETH. If we were looking for a
50% price increase, that would be a sale price of about 0.45 ETH.
To reach this price it would take 34 (I counted) floor sales (and no new
listings).
We can combine this information with the daily number of sales to get a
better picture.
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Looking at the daily sales, we can see that the collection is getting 40+
sales per day.
If 80% of these sales happen at or near the floor, it would take just one day
to raise the floor price 50% (if there were no new listings).
Of course new NFTs will be listed for sale every day, but these numbers
indicate that the collection has the potential to move up in price quickly.
SCARCITY (SUPPLY)
The more NFTs in a collection (the supply), the harder it will be for the price
to rise (holding demand constant).
A project that contains 1,000 NFTs will more easily see prices rise
compared to a project with 10,000 NFTs, all else being equal.
Scarcity is one of the main ways that NFT traders value NFTs.
You can also see it within NFT collections like the Curio Cards.
Curio Cards are considered by many to be the first art project on the
Ethereum blockchain.
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Curio Card #9: Book, is one of the most common cards in the collection
with over 1.6K supply. The current asking price is 0.346 ETH.
Curio Card #2: Nuts, has about half the supply of Books, with only 740 total
supply on OpenSea.
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At 0.65 ETH asking price, it’s nearly double the price of Books.
When we look at Curio Card #8: Painting, we see that it has a supply of
1,600, which is the same as Books.
However, the asking price of Painting is 0.6 ETH, nearly twice as much as
the asking price of Books.
This shows that there is more demand for Painting than there is for Books.
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Most of the time this is caused by a preference for the aesthetics of one
NFT over another.
In this case, it’s also caused by the historical significance and popularity of
the actual Mona Lisa.
When there are multiple, interchangeable copies of the same NFT, like in
the case of Curio Cards, it can allow for the creation of an order book of
offers to buy and offers to sell.
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We can see here that the highest offer is 0.341 ETH and the lowest asking
price is 0.39 ETH, with many additional bids and asks.
Buying into a project with a healthy order book lowers your liquidity risk
since you can accept any of these offers if you want to sell.
Just keep in mind that you pay the gas fees when accepting an offer.
We do this by seeing how many NFTs are listed for sale in a collection.
Since NFT collections vary in size, we look at this as a ratio.
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A low ratio shows that holders of the project are bullish and expect prices to
increase.
A high ratio can indicate that holders are bearish and are looking to sell.
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The Cyberkongz have 4,400 NFTs in their collection and there are 379
listed for sale.
Now let’s compare this to the Lonely Alien Space Club, a collection that had
a lot of hype early on and at one point had an average sale price of almost
1 ETH per NFT.
We can see that there are 10,000 total NFTs in the Lonely Alien Space
Club and 3,256 are listed for sale. This means that LTS is 32.56%.
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The LTS gives an insight as to how the holders of a collection expect the
future to be.
These numbers are just based on what we’ve seen and you can feel free to
debate this.
The higher the LTS, the more sell side pressure there is and the harder it
will be for prices to increase.
MEME FACTOR
Memes play a significant role in the world of NFTs.
It’s common to see prices explode on a project solely due to the meme
factor.
This CryptoDickbutt sold for an astonishing 19.99 ETH and now is listed for
42 ETH ($198,890)!
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Be careful, as prices can fall just as sharply when guys get scared they’re
going to have to justify to their wife why they paid tens of thousands of
dollars for a picture of a pixelated dickbutt.
An influencer in the crypto space will have a stronger effect than a fitness
influencer.
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Given the notoriety of the team, the 10,420 item NFT collection sold out
fast during the mint at 0.35 ETH a piece.
At the time, this mint price was about 5x times more expensive than the
average mint price (~ 0.07 ETH).
While this is probably not true since these celebrities wouldn’t likely risk
their reputation for a couple million bucks... Or would they?
Minting at a higher price just leaves more room for price to fall.
The project is still on going but the floor price at the time of writing is
significantly below the mint price.
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It does not guarantee that interest and demand will be sustained to support
prices.
NFT traders typically have short memories and even less patience.
If a project’s price isn’t doing anything interesting, holders may dump their
NFTs to put the proceeds into something else more interesting.
But then again, all it would take for this project to pop would been some
tweets to the audiences from celebrities involved in the project.
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ASSET ANALYSIS
The most granular analysis happens at the individual NFT level.
If you’ve chosen a collection to invest in, you need to choose which piece in
that collection to buy.
One option is to just buy the cheapest piece in a collection at the floor
price.
ART
Art is a controversial topic.
What looks ugly or basic to you might sell for millions. This is true in
modern art as well as NFTs.
Just because something looks ugly, unoriginal, or low effort (pixel art)
doesn’t mean it doesn’t have to potential to sell for a lot.
However, with so many copycat pixel art projects, they will need more than
“memeability” to carry them long-term.
With so many projects launching that all look alike, unique art can be a
factor that spurs the initial success of a project.
Taste is subjective, but often times if you like the look of something, others
will too.
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RARITY
Pricing NFTs based on their rarity has become the most common way to
value NFTs against one another within the same collection.
Projects that incorporate random generation will have certain traits that are
more rare than others.
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We can see here that the #1 “rarest” NFT in the Doge Pound collection is
DOGGY #4848 and it is currently listed for sale for 200 ETH.
We can also sort by lowest price to try to find undervalued NFTs based on
rarity.
The floor price of the collection is 2.92 ETH. If we’re willing to spend 3.09
we could grab DOGGY #1287 which has a rarity rank of #2060.
Make sure you use your discretion here because pricing NFTs based on
rarity (and finding mispriced NFTs) seems easy in practice, but often
doesn’t play out as you expect.
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Illiquid markets and individual preference ensure that markets don’t always
price NFTs “logically”.
Keep in mind that these aren’t faceless alt-coins that are being traded.
Many of these NFTs are considered art and holders can also grow attached
to their NFTs.
This is especially true if they are using the NFT as their profile picture.
Sometimes a certain trait sells for more than it “should” based on it’s rarity
just because it looks cool and there is high demand for that trait.
And sometimes a rare trait doesn’t fetch it’s “worth” because it’s ugly or
undesireable for some other reason.
Typically the less trading volume a project has, the more ripe for rarity
mispricings.
BAYC is 2nd highest volume NFT collection with over $1B in trading
volume.
This means that it has more established trait and rarity pricing.
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There are 105 apes with space suits and only 103 with prom dresses.
The cheapest prom dress is 55 ETH, compared to 78 ETH for the cheapest
space suit.
This is just because the space suit is more desired than the prom dress.
Admirals Coat is the second rarest clothing trait with 64 in existence. The
cheapest one listed for sale is 70 ETH.
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When we look at the rarest clothing, Black Suit (42 total) the floor price
jumps up to 175 ETH.
At the time of writing, the floor price on the entire BAYC collection is 50
ETH.
The #2 rarest clothing (Admirals Coat) will cost you 40% above floor price.
The Black Suit will cost you 250% above floor price.
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Keep in mind these are asking prices and it doesn’t necessarily mean that
they will sell for these prices.
Rarer traits may hold more value than common traits, but this isn’t always
the case.
Visually unappealing traits may sell at floor prices even if they are rare.
And on the other hand, traits that aren’t very rare may fetch higher prices if
there is demand for them based on their visual appeal or unique utility.
You will see higher prices among the top 10% rarest NFTs based on the
ranking of these sites.
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There is less shopping in the middle of the rarity ranks. Most sales comes
from the NFTs that are listed the cheapest in a collection.
We analyzed the top 25 highest sales in the BAYC and compared the
returns to floor price BAYC NFTs over the same period.
And this is comparing to the returns on the 25 highest selling apes of all
time (out of 10,000).
When you combine this with the fact that there are WAY more sales that
happen at/near the floor (less liquidity risk), it’s a no brainer…
Ape #6267 was one of the highest ape sales of all time at 155 ETH. It was
purchased for just 1.6 ETH on May 1, 2021 - a 9,622% gain.
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It sounds great until you see that the gain of the floor price over the same
period was 36,344%.
You would have done over 3x better just buying the cheapest ape.
Unless you want a rare NFT just to flex, buy the floor.
WHEN TO BUY
The timing of an NFT purchase depends on your strategy.
During the mint of an NFT, the window of opportunity may be short if there
is a lot of interest in the project.
The more interest in an NFT project, the more time sensitive the purchase
is.
You may just have to bite the bullet and pay the higher gas fees.
Alternatively, you could watch the gas prices over 5-15 minutes and try to
get a lower transaction fee.
However, you risk missing the opportunity if you wait too long.
If the NFT purchase isn’t urgent, you should wait until transaction fees are
cheaper.
The lowest transaction fees occur around 6am EST most days.
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Just doing this can save you $50+ on a single transaction fee.
Trading NFTs comes with some unique risks that aren’t always apparent in
other asset classes.
Though the risks shouldn’t sway you from NFT trading, having an
understanding of them increases your chances of success.
Unless you have zero risk appetite. Then go trade bonds or something.
First, let’s talk about the most common risk - price risk.
PRICE RISK
Price risk is the risk that the value of an NFT will decrease.
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“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a
weighing machine” - Ben Graham (Warren Buffet’s mentor).
Generally, the lower you can buy - the better, since zero is the lowest an
NFT price can go.
LIQUIDITY RISK
Trading NFTs is not like trading cryptocurrencies.
With major cryptocurrencies there is always a price you can buy at and a
price you can sell at.
With NFTs, there isn’t always a price you can immediately sell at.
Sometimes sales can take a few hours, a few days, or even weeks.
It depends on a variety of factors such as daily sales and how the NFT is
priced.
Even at low prices, when the market is fearful, buyers are scarce.
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OPPORTUNITY COST
Opportunity cost is the potential gains an individual misses out on when
choosing one thing over another.
One common opportunity cost, is the cost of just holding Ethereum versus
using the ETH to purchase NFTs.
There are times when you would be better off just holding ETH.
When Ethereum is ripping against the US Dollar, you will often see NFT
prices dip.
Unless you have a wallet full of ETH, you will have to convert USD to ETH
to buy NFTs.
This makes every NFT more expensive in USD, causing demand to shrink.
Since most newcomers think of prices in USD, they feel the extra sting.
These are times where you may be better off just holding ETH.
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COUNTERFEIT PROJECTS
By and large the NFT community is full of the kindest people on the
internet. Unfortunately bad actors always exist.
OpenSea doesn’t vet the projects that come on the platform. Literally
anyone can launch a project and it will appear on OpenSea.
One way to check if a project is the original is to check the volume and the
sales history.
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RUG PULLS
Since so much money can be made from an NFT launch, it has attracted a
lot of bad actors.
Scammers will whip up a project, make big claims about the future of the
project, then disappear after they sell out the NFTs.
Since this is almost always done by anonymous teams, they can just start
up a new project, rinse and repeat.
To the untrained eye, this looks like this person just minted an NFT from
that project.
When an influencer makes an NFT purchase, copy-traders often follow into
the project driving up prices.
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ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors or misprints may occur.
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The influencer may also post about the NFT purchase on their socal,
driving further demand.
If you’re watching the wallet of this person, you think to yourself, “I better
get in now or I am going to miss the boat.”
Scammers prey on the the inexperienced NFT buyers hoping they will buy
their scam project.
If the wallet address in the “From” field doesn’t match the “To” wallet
address under “Transaction Action” then the influencer didn’t mint it
themselves.
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are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to
ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors or misprints may occur.
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Where some low caliber projects will mint the NFTs themselves.
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are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to
ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors or misprints may occur.
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Then they will pay the gas fee to transfer the NFT to a popular wallet
belonging to an influencer, celebrity, etc.
To the average person snooping the famous wallet, this gives the
appearance that the celebrity, influencer, etc. is “collecting” this NFT
project.
So you think to yourself, “wow, that project looks pretty cheap, lemme snag
a couple.”
And that’s exactly what the scammers who transferred the NFT want you to
think.
They hope you’ll be naive and buy their suspect project so they can pocket
the sale.
blokstreet.com is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. All investment / financial opinions expressed by blokstreet.com
are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to
ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors or misprints may occur.
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permission from blokstreet.com. All infringements will be prosecuted. If you are the personal owner of the blokstreet.com End User
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PHISHING SCAMS
Phishing is a type of social engineering where an attacker attempts to get
sensitive information by appearing to be someone else.
With crypto and NFTs, they are usually trying to get the seed phrase of your
wallet.
It could also be a malicious website that is trying to get you to connect your
wallet.
Oftentimes bad actors will use social engineering tactics through channels
such as Discord. They may pretend to be offering technical help and may
coach you into mistakenly sharing your seed phrase then draining your
wallet.
blokstreet.com is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. All investment / financial opinions expressed by blokstreet.com
are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to
ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors or misprints may occur.
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Here’s how:
Congratulations! You finished The NFT Bible. We hope you learned a lot
about NFTs and NFT trading.
blokstreet.com is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. All investment / financial opinions expressed by blokstreet.com
are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to
ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors or misprints may occur.
© blokstreet.com - All rights reserved. Do not share, copy, reproduce or sell any part of this document unless you have written
permission from blokstreet.com. All infringements will be prosecuted. If you are the personal owner of the blokstreet.com End User
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We’d appreciate you sharing this book on your social media.
If you are interested in partnering with us to launch your own NFT project,
click here to apply to work with us.
blokstreet.com is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. All investment / financial opinions expressed by blokstreet.com
are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to
ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors or misprints may occur.
© blokstreet.com - All rights reserved. Do not share, copy, reproduce or sell any part of this document unless you have written
permission from blokstreet.com. All infringements will be prosecuted. If you are the personal owner of the blokstreet.com End User
License then you may use it for your own use but not for any other purpose.
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