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Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 27,5 49,2 58,4 73,7
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,001 0,000 0,003 0,003
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 225,286 52,827 397,746
426 159,935 -16,776 336,647
427 163,693 -13,554 340,941
428 188,374 10,888 365,860
429 139,646 -38,036 317,328
430 214,742 36,870 392,613
431 294,174 116,116 472,232
432 261,100 82,855 439,345
433 178,058 -0,374 356,490
434 193,070 14,452 371,689
435 247,431 68,627 426,236
436 249,079 70,089 428,070
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 40,8 63,2 70,9 89,3
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 208,571 33,895 383,248
426 161,341 -13,874 336,556
427 167,477 -8,275 343,228
428 193,286 16,999 369,572
429 148,117 -28,704 324,937
430 223,358 46,006 400,710
431 299,327 121,444 477,209
432 268,752 90,341 447,163
433 186,628 7,690 365,566
434 202,473 23,009 381,937
435 260,233 80,245 440,221
436 256,181 75,670 436,691
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 29,2 50,8 59,9 75,7
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,002 0,002
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 220,969 47,979 393,959
426 154,856 -21,198 330,909
427 162,056 -14,244 338,356
428 187,417 10,871 363,962
429 142,219 -34,572 319,010
430 216,696 39,660 393,732
431 294,280 116,999 471,561
432 262,671 85,146 440,197
433 180,732 2,963 358,502
434 196,078 18,065 374,091
435 251,529 73,273 429,786
436 249,521 71,022 428,021
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 18,7 44,1 53,4 65,9
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,001 0,000 0,003 0,006
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 236,538 67,138 405,939
426 157,803 -16,391 331,997
427 145,032 -31,758 321,823
428 191,078 14,284 367,872
429 118,823 -58,089 295,736
430 194,702 17,730 371,674
431 278,129 101,085 455,174
432 256,465 79,351 433,578
433 169,578 -7,605 346,761
434 191,481 14,228 368,734
435 225,001 47,679 402,323
436 252,888 75,496 430,279
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 29,2 50,8 59,9 75,7
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,002 0,002
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 220,969 47,979 393,959
426 154,856 -21,198 330,909
427 162,056 -14,244 338,356
428 187,417 10,871 363,962
429 142,219 -34,572 319,010
430 216,696 39,660 393,732
431 294,280 116,999 471,561
432 262,671 85,146 440,197
433 180,732 2,963 358,502
434 196,078 18,065 374,091
435 251,529 73,273 429,786
436 249,521 71,022 428,021
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 18,7 44,1 53,4 65,9
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,001 0,000 0,003 0,006
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 236,538 67,138 405,939
426 157,803 -16,391 331,997
427 145,032 -31,758 321,823
428 191,078 14,284 367,872
429 118,823 -58,089 295,736
430 194,702 17,730 371,674
431 278,129 101,085 455,174
432 256,465 79,351 433,578
433 169,578 -7,605 346,761
434 191,481 14,228 368,734
435 225,001 47,679 402,323
436 252,888 75,496 430,279
ARIMA Model: Ma.Bulian(261)
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 8,9 21,6 33,8 41,8
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,351 0,363 0,383 0,568
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
262 232,776 32,221 433,332
263 353,384 150,672 556,096
264 316,910 113,775 520,045
265 210,947 7,485 414,408
266 261,592 57,813 465,371
267 322,641 118,546 526,737
268 334,554 130,142 538,965
269 212,935 8,208 417,662
270 162,275 -42,767 367,316
271 163,721 -41,635 369,077
272 165,071 -40,599 370,741
273 154,742 -51,242 360,725
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
262 210,381 11,781 408,980
263 376,102 175,736 576,467
264 323,545 123,172 523,919
265 195,908 -4,854 396,669
266 284,942 84,083 485,801
267 318,324 117,223 519,425
268 331,495 130,244 532,747
269 188,212 -13,240 389,664
270 157,850 -43,772 359,472
271 131,661 -70,149 333,470
272 149,604 -52,382 351,590
273 115,863 -86,306 318,032
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,7 24,3 34,8 42,2
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,299 0,280 0,381 0,589
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
262 217,233 16,115 418,351
263 352,951 151,473 554,429
264 318,940 117,103 520,777
265 211,133 8,938 413,329
266 264,163 61,609 466,716
267 323,358 120,447 526,269
268 334,874 131,606 538,142
269 213,876 10,252 417,501
270 163,094 -40,886 367,073
271 165,311 -39,023 369,646
272 165,421 -39,268 370,110
273 154,668 -50,375 359,710
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 6,7 13,9 23,0 29,8
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,035 0,457 0,631 0,825
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
262 222,534 26,355 418,713
263 403,700 205,973 601,426
264 306,051 108,296 503,806
265 196,946 -0,929 394,822
266 248,711 50,833 446,589
267 294,685 96,758 492,611
268 320,188 122,245 518,130
269 181,886 -16,088 379,860
270 154,279 -43,717 352,276
271 136,385 -61,639 334,409
272 151,422 -46,626 349,470
273 89,243 -108,832 287,317
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 5,7 12,6 21,5 28,3
DF 3 15 27 39
P-Value 0,125 0,632 0,761 0,898
Forecasts from period 261
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
262 206,593 11,765 401,421
263 330,642 134,329 526,955
264 296,226 99,913 492,540
265 179,065 -17,384 375,513
266 237,988 41,539 434,436
267 261,212 64,764 457,661
268 285,564 89,115 482,012
269 145,399 -51,049 341,848
270 122,022 -74,426 318,471
271 118,981 -77,468 315,429
272 122,495 -73,954 318,944
273 82,185 -114,264 278,634
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 6,4 13,2 22,1 28,7
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,172 0,658 0,778 0,907
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
262 220,697 25,388 416,005
263 414,347 217,600 611,093
264 298,242 101,487 494,998
265 188,720 -8,051 385,490
266 240,368 43,582 437,154
267 297,261 100,460 494,062
268 315,107 118,290 511,923
269 182,354 -14,478 379,185
270 154,198 -42,648 351,044
271 135,367 -61,494 332,229
272 149,257 -47,620 346,133
273 80,281 -116,611 277,172
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 29,4 39,0 48,6 56,3
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,001 0,009 0,045
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
262 288,610 64,578 512,642
263 511,269 266,029 756,509
264 434,097 169,191 699,003
265 309,700 7,092 612,307
266 373,815 46,744 700,885
267 430,091 79,668 780,514
268 445,273 69,108 821,438
269 312,356 -87,085 711,797
270 286,777 -135,347 708,901
271 267,748 -177,162 712,659
272 289,037 -177,979 756,052
273 233,640 -255,152 722,432
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 80,7 98,4 107,9 113,6
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
262 179,77 -57,67 417,22 50,00
263 238,86 -104,12 581,84 243,56
264 213,04 -287,64 713,72 228,27
265 167,45 -502,76 837,65 109,60
266 179,42 -678,19 1037,02 132,00
267 284,15 -776,34 1344,64 316,00
268 199,66 -1077,67 1476,99 338,00
269 172,02 -1335,47 1679,50 219,00
270 101,04 -1649,05 1851,14 23,00
271 89,42 -1915,15 2093,99 131,00
272 125,42 -2144,94 2395,78 72,00
273 112,70 -2434,29 2659,70 176,00
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 2,1 19,5 29,5 34,2
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,978 0,488 0,596 0,855
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
214 232,030 14,145 449,916
215 397,963 179,451 616,476
216 374,828 155,890 593,766
217 272,133 52,770 491,496
218 285,531 65,744 505,319
219 376,056 155,845 596,267
220 361,854 141,221 582,487
221 283,257 62,202 504,312
222 198,143 -23,333 419,619
223 176,589 -45,308 398,485
224 196,124 -26,191 418,440
225 244,748 22,014 467,482
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 1,2 11,3 26,2 30,4
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,883 0,788 0,564 0,863
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
214 307,050 94,694 519,405
215 482,612 268,995 696,228
216 390,423 175,405 605,441
217 232,447 16,727 448,167
218 375,667 158,785 592,549
219 326,303 108,603 544,003
220 362,851 144,104 581,598
221 227,278 7,654 446,901
222 217,057 -3,554 437,668
223 154,663 -66,850 376,176
224 174,017 -48,451 396,485
225 122,368 -101,011 345,747
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 1,9 12,0 20,9 25,5
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,394 0,608 0,748 0,940
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
214 356,141 152,512 559,770
215 504,666 300,286 709,046
216 373,677 168,463 578,891
217 270,282 65,033 475,532
218 337,733 132,002 543,463
219 292,160 86,429 497,890
220 365,416 159,380 571,452
221 194,538 -11,508 400,583
222 228,463 22,204 434,722
223 191,812 -14,477 398,100
224 191,923 -14,528 398,375
225 109,057 -97,441 315,555
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 2,9 14,7 24,6 34,2
DF 3 15 27 39
P-Value 0,402 0,470 0,596 0,688
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
214 319,084 111,530 526,638
215 552,914 345,277 760,550
216 416,684 207,440 625,929
217 302,489 92,964 512,014
218 325,477 115,749 535,205
219 326,231 116,262 536,199
220 375,985 165,986 585,983
221 257,151 47,012 467,290
222 202,014 -8,127 412,155
223 198,254 -11,970 408,479
224 177,309 -32,917 387,534
225 143,522 -66,758 353,802
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 80,7 98,4 107,9 113,6
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 324,06 86,61 561,51
426 351,12 8,14 694,10
427 418,09 -82,59 918,77
428 543,90 -126,30 1214,10
429 564,54 -293,07 1422,14
430 699,36 -361,13 1759,85
431 842,48 -434,85 2119,81
432 900,09 -607,40 2407,57
433 913,73 -836,37 2663,82
434 993,89 -1010,69 2998,46
435 1111,43 -1158,93 3381,79
436 1161,80 -1385,19 3708,80
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 29,4 39,0 48,6 56,3
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,001 0,009 0,045
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
262 288,610 64,578 512,642
263 511,269 266,029 756,509
264 434,097 169,191 699,003
265 309,700 7,092 612,307
266 373,815 46,744 700,885
267 430,091 79,668 780,514
268 445,273 69,108 821,438
269 312,356 -87,085 711,797
270 286,777 -135,347 708,901
271 267,748 -177,162 712,659
272 289,037 -177,979 756,052
273 233,640 -255,152 722,432
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 29,4 41,7 55,7 65,5
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,007
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
163 336,85 122,27 551,44
164 393,12 119,20 667,03
165 351,52 -18,49 721,53
166 421,93 -15,98 859,83
167 445,26 -71,26 961,79
168 421,21 -165,03 1007,45
169 368,25 -291,76 1028,26
170 373,56 -357,56 1104,68
171 432,82 -371,43 1237,07
172 462,26 -414,73 1339,26
173 543,94 -407,18 1495,06
174 483,93 -541,83 1509,70
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 25,8 39,6 51,4 59,0
DF 5 17 29 41
P-Value 0,000 0,001 0,006 0,034
Forecasts from period 162
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
163 213,747 15,021 412,472
164 304,557 84,036 525,077
165 205,599 -72,375 483,572
166 241,542 -69,404 552,488
167 295,058 -59,370 649,487
168 224,937 -166,157 616,032
169 145,719 -285,382 576,821
170 203,158 -266,049 672,365
171 199,880 -308,699 708,459
172 263,914 -283,689 811,517
173 297,206 -290,101 884,512
174 223,836 -403,358 851,030
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,3 23,8 33,4 41,2
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,036 0,095 0,220 0,420
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
163 269,287 95,382 443,192
164 277,792 98,509 457,075
165 190,716 -9,554 390,986
166 224,449 23,829 425,070
167 308,673 105,086 512,261
168 201,121 -4,372 406,615
169 144,738 -62,919 352,396
170 161,244 -48,473 370,960
171 208,749 -3,030 420,529
172 253,663 39,847 467,478
173 271,967 56,132 487,801
174 182,379 -35,455 400,213
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 14,8 28,7 39,7 50,2
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,001 0,012 0,042 0,090
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
163 265,958 103,019 428,898
164 219,336 51,466 387,206
165 192,718 5,397 380,038
166 223,675 36,290 411,061
167 289,749 100,773 478,724
168 132,442 -57,546 322,430
169 98,306 -92,819 289,430
170 121,523 -70,698 313,744
171 181,727 -11,593 375,047
172 169,631 -24,779 364,041
173 308,382 112,887 503,877
174 142,798 -53,776 339,371
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
163 126,656 -38,012 291,325
164 167,116 0,337 333,895
165 157,170 -20,314 334,655
166 204,487 25,063 383,910
167 238,554 56,240 420,867
168 112,644 -71,102 296,391
169 37,210 -147,974 222,394
170 124,401 -61,833 310,634
171 118,211 -68,966 305,388
172 66,798 -121,158 254,753
173 269,730 81,093 458,367
174 92,140 -97,080 281,361
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 12,5 25,4 45,8 54,8
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,014 0,063 0,018 0,059
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
163 216,152 19,421 412,884
164 316,279 108,500 524,059
165 224,248 1,995 446,501
166 320,573 95,193 545,954
167 257,762 29,373 486,150
168 357,047 127,214 586,880
169 204,504 -26,693 435,701
170 266,495 34,241 498,749
171 195,524 -37,757 428,804
172 214,770 -19,461 449,001
173 232,410 -2,760 467,579
174 213,312 -22,774 449,397
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 26,4 39,2 51,0 58,4
DF 6 18 30 42
P-Value 0,000 0,003 0,010 0,048
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
163 233,396 34,012 432,780
164 305,420 83,051 527,789
165 209,873 -70,225 489,971
166 253,951 -60,430 568,332
167 295,325 -63,225 653,874
168 244,019 -152,420 640,459
169 160,208 -277,190 597,605
170 185,675 -291,039 662,389
171 194,081 -323,127 711,289
172 256,477 -301,009 813,964
173 274,280 -324,155 872,716
174 208,964 -430,683 848,611
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 25,8 39,6 51,4 59,0
DF 5 17 29 41
P-Value 0,000 0,001 0,006 0,034
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
163 213,747 15,021 412,472
164 304,557 84,036 525,077
165 205,599 -72,375 483,572
166 241,542 -69,404 552,488
167 295,058 -59,370 649,487
168 224,937 -166,157 616,032
169 145,719 -285,382 576,821
170 203,158 -266,049 672,365
171 199,880 -308,699 708,459
172 263,914 -283,689 811,517
173 297,206 -290,101 884,512
174 223,836 -403,358 851,030
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 68,7 83,9 93,9 104,0
DF 5 17 29 41
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 251,077 55,131 447,024
426 249,364 24,916 473,811
427 229,717 -43,089 502,523
428 271,208 -34,922 577,338
429 230,454 -111,167 572,074
430 304,825 -68,610 678,260
431 389,379 -15,468 794,227
432 352,448 -82,478 787,374
433 284,400 -180,027 748,827
434 298,972 -194,296 792,241
435 350,386 -171,292 872,064
436 343,826 -205,877 893,529
ARIMA Model: Pemayung(424)
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 18,1 28,9 36,8 43,4
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,000 0,011 0,078 0,253
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 226,306 59,905 392,707
426 145,024 -24,646 314,694
427 116,182 -55,453 287,817
428 153,324 -18,315 324,964
429 100,149 -71,499 271,797
430 189,778 18,124 361,431
431 278,479 106,819 450,138
432 246,456 74,791 418,121
433 172,686 1,015 344,357
434 192,045 20,368 363,721
435 240,322 68,639 412,004
436 254,661 82,972 426,349
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 80,7 98,4 107,9 113,6
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 324,06 86,61 561,51
426 351,12 8,14 694,10
427 418,09 -82,59 918,77
428 543,90 -126,30 1214,10
429 564,54 -293,07 1422,14
430 699,36 -361,13 1759,85
431 842,48 -434,85 2119,81
432 900,09 -607,40 2407,57
433 913,73 -836,37 2663,82
434 993,89 -1010,69 2998,46
435 1111,43 -1158,93 3381,79
436 1161,80 -1385,19 3708,80
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 69,7 85,0 96,8 102,5
DF 3 15 27 39
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 325,16 103,57 546,76
426 307,12 -4,24 618,47
427 330,77 -99,69 761,23
428 408,39 -139,42 956,20
429 387,82 -288,20 1063,84
430 512,74 -297,48 1322,96
431 636,78 -315,31 1588,87
432 646,41 -454,21 1747,04
433 610,15 -645,73 1866,04
434 664,52 -752,99 2082,04
435 743,63 -841,71 2328,98
436 802,97 -956,18 2562,13
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 80,7 98,4 107,9 113,6
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 324,06 86,61 561,51
426 351,12 8,14 694,10
427 418,09 -82,59 918,77
428 543,90 -126,30 1214,10
429 564,54 -293,07 1422,14
430 699,36 -361,13 1759,85
431 842,48 -434,85 2119,81
432 900,09 -607,40 2407,57
433 913,73 -836,37 2663,82
434 993,89 -1010,69 2998,46
435 1111,43 -1158,93 3381,79
436 1161,80 -1385,19 3708,80
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 68,7 83,9 93,9 104,0
DF 5 17 29 41
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 251,077 55,131 447,024
426 249,364 24,916 473,811
427 229,717 -43,089 502,523
428 271,208 -34,922 577,338
429 230,454 -111,167 572,074
430 304,825 -68,610 678,260
431 389,379 -15,468 794,227
432 352,448 -82,478 787,374
433 284,400 -180,027 748,827
434 298,972 -194,296 792,241
435 350,386 -171,292 872,064
436 343,826 -205,877 893,529
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 80,7 98,4 107,9 113,6
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 324,06 86,61 561,51
426 351,12 8,14 694,10
427 418,09 -82,59 918,77
428 543,90 -126,30 1214,10
429 564,54 -293,07 1422,14
430 699,36 -361,13 1759,85
431 842,48 -434,85 2119,81
432 900,09 -607,40 2407,57
433 913,73 -836,37 2663,82
434 993,89 -1010,69 2998,46
435 1111,43 -1158,93 3381,79
436 1161,80 -1385,19 3708,80
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 68,7 83,9 93,9 104,0
DF 5 17 29 41
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 251,077 55,131 447,024
426 249,364 24,916 473,811
427 229,717 -43,089 502,523
428 271,208 -34,922 577,338
429 230,454 -111,167 572,074
430 304,825 -68,610 678,260
431 389,379 -15,468 794,227
432 352,448 -82,478 787,374
433 284,400 -180,027 748,827
434 298,972 -194,296 792,241
435 350,386 -171,292 872,064
436 343,826 -205,877 893,529
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 382,39 133,82 630,95
426 455,88 133,39 778,37
427 437,81 30,30 845,31
428 494,02 15,05 972,99
429 269,69 -280,20 819,58
430 402,91 -215,03 1020,84
431 546,04 -139,29 1231,37
432 459,90 -292,17 1211,97
433 328,39 -490,33 1147,10
434 342,70 -542,73 1228,13
435 414,87 -537,55 1367,28
436 541,42 -478,38 1561,22
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 67,5 82,2 91,6 103,5
DF 7 19 31 43
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 68,7 83,9 93,9 104,0
DF 5 17 29 41
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 251,077 55,131 447,024
426 249,364 24,916 473,811
427 229,717 -43,089 502,523
428 271,208 -34,922 577,338
429 230,454 -111,167 572,074
430 304,825 -68,610 678,260
431 389,379 -15,468 794,227
432 352,448 -82,478 787,374
433 284,400 -180,027 748,827
434 298,972 -194,296 792,241
435 350,386 -171,292 872,064
436 343,826 -205,877 893,529
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 21,1 33,2 41,2 48,6
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,000 0,003 0,030 0,117
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 222,685 53,521 391,849
426 158,694 -14,052 331,439
427 149,669 -24,694 324,031
428 201,231 26,345 376,117
429 138,174 -37,068 313,416
430 205,701 30,165 381,237
431 265,139 89,327 440,951
432 269,412 93,331 445,493
433 209,093 32,745 385,440
434 217,489 40,876 394,102
435 263,134 86,256 440,011
436 248,756 71,614 425,898
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 64,5 90,6 102,7 121,0
DF 3 15 27 39
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 431,28 192,19 670,38
426 515,42 169,24 861,59
427 582,97 98,45 1067,50
428 701,68 73,26 1330,10
429 651,51 -133,87 1436,89
430 723,92 -228,36 1676,21
431 795,07 -334,34 1924,48
432 916,36 -399,62 2232,34
433 929,78 -581,89 2441,45
434 975,22 -740,83 2691,26
435 987,51 -941,28 2916,29
436 1110,54 -1039,03 3260,12
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 68,7 83,9 93,9 104,0
DF 5 17 29 41
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
425 251,077 55,131 447,024
426 249,364 24,916 473,811
427 229,717 -43,089 502,523
428 271,208 -34,922 577,338
429 230,454 -111,167 572,074
430 304,825 -68,610 678,260
431 389,379 -15,468 794,227
432 352,448 -82,478 787,374
433 284,400 -180,027 748,827
434 298,972 -194,296 792,241
435 350,386 -171,292 872,064
436 343,826 -205,877 893,529
————— 08/11 10:07:22 ————————————————————
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 42,2 65,4 73,4 90,9
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
426 169,353 -5,508 344,215
427 176,229 0,765 351,692
428 201,869 25,805 377,932
429 153,604 -23,058 330,265
430 229,179 51,922 406,437
431 307,520 129,668 485,372
432 275,140 96,696 453,584
433 192,088 13,054 371,122
434 207,436 27,814 387,058
435 263,264 83,056 443,472
436 263,618 82,825 444,410
437 222,010 40,635 403,385
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 30,1 51,8 61,0 76,4
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,002 0,002
Forecasts from period 425
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
426 167,108 -5,864 340,081
427 167,355 -8,783 343,493
428 192,855 16,449 369,260
429 145,045 -31,627 321,717
430 220,264 43,325 397,202
431 298,849 121,645 476,053
432 266,346 88,876 443,815
433 183,531 5,796 361,265
434 198,764 20,764 376,763
435 254,038 75,774 432,301
436 254,301 75,774 432,829
437 212,786 33,995 391,577
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 19,8 48,4 57,4 69,5
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,001 0,000 0,001 0,003
Forecasts from period 425
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
426 171,730 1,184 342,276
427 165,486 -10,036 341,008
428 200,153 21,568 378,739
429 125,343 -53,268 303,954
430 201,015 22,197 379,832
431 292,330 113,353 471,307
432 264,453 85,309 443,598
433 175,110 -4,200 354,421
434 195,870 16,394 375,347
435 221,733 42,090 401,375
436 262,020 82,213 441,828
437 204,894 24,921 384,868
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,4 23,0 35,7 44,0
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,308 0,287 0,297 0,470
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
263 367,235 166,091 568,380
264 320,004 116,457 523,551
265 214,428 10,399 418,458
266 264,190 59,791 468,590
267 329,026 124,269 533,784
268 341,445 136,331 546,560
269 218,834 13,364 424,305
270 166,192 -39,634 372,018
271 165,648 -40,533 371,829
272 169,326 -37,209 375,861
273 159,332 -47,557 366,221
274 251,338 44,096 458,580
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 11,5 26,0 37,1 44,6
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,246 0,205 0,286 0,488
Forecasts from period 262
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
263 362,898 161,025 564,771
264 324,258 121,935 526,580
265 217,037 14,266 419,808
266 269,790 66,571 473,008
267 331,876 128,211 535,541
268 343,691 139,580 547,801
269 221,925 17,370 426,480
270 169,775 -35,224 374,773
271 170,268 -35,173 375,710
272 172,129 -33,754 378,012
273 161,821 -44,503 368,145
274 254,700 47,936 461,463
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 12,0 19,6 28,7 46,3
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,288 0,605 0,725 0,461
Forecasts from period 177
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
178 221,909 3,718 440,100
179 371,126 149,482 592,769
180 336,161 111,119 561,204
181 318,936 90,545 547,328
182 261,910 30,218 493,602
183 393,226 158,280 628,172
184 344,714 106,558 582,870
185 290,050 48,728 531,373
186 231,520 -12,929 475,968
187 225,784 -21,751 473,319
188 209,318 -41,265 459,901
189 208,208 -45,387 461,803
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,5 18,8 27,7 44,8
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,313 0,596 0,730 0,481
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
178 223,006 4,826 441,186
179 377,618 155,777 599,459
180 346,259 120,816 571,702
181 315,949 86,961 544,937
182 279,583 47,103 512,062
183 400,294 164,375 636,213
184 351,377 112,068 590,686
185 286,060 43,409 528,712
186 227,757 -18,192 473,706
187 228,306 -20,896 477,509
188 197,128 -55,286 449,542
189 202,239 -53,346 457,825
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,2 16,7 25,6 43,6
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,416 0,729 0,817 0,533
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
178 217,086 -3,017 437,190
179 385,678 162,265 609,090
180 342,390 115,717 569,063
181 303,190 73,302 533,077
182 282,858 49,801 515,915
183 377,293 141,108 613,478
184 331,815 92,544 571,086
185 266,091 23,773 508,410
186 212,403 -32,924 457,731
187 208,549 -39,752 456,850
188 181,443 -69,796 432,681
189 188,048 -66,094 442,191
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 2,2 19,7 28,4 33,3
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,973 0,474 0,652 0,879
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
215 411,553 192,148 630,959
216 388,167 167,569 608,765
217 282,783 61,118 504,448
218 297,074 74,348 519,801
219 391,581 167,798 615,364
220 374,623 149,789 599,458
221 298,037 72,156 523,918
222 210,841 -16,082 437,765
223 189,913 -38,047 417,873
224 200,717 -28,275 429,710
225 243,854 13,834 473,875
226 242,969 11,925 474,012
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 2,0 12,5 19,2 23,6
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,366 0,565 0,829 0,968
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 3,1 21,7 29,9 35,3
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,930 0,360 0,573 0,824
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
215 435,386 215,248 655,524
216 409,267 187,764 630,770
217 316,641 93,386 539,896
218 315,209 90,223 540,195
219 425,848 199,144 652,552
220 400,528 172,119 628,937
221 326,648 96,546 556,750
222 239,440 7,658 471,221
223 220,461 -12,989 453,910
224 234,981 -0,124 470,087
225 277,780 41,030 514,530
226 279,735 41,352 518,118
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 11,2 24,8 33,2 40,1
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,024 0,073 0,229 0,464
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
164 255,232 83,818 426,646
165 158,818 -16,976 334,612
166 230,372 34,831 425,914
167 288,803 93,176 484,431
168 170,016 -27,833 367,865
169 126,354 -72,769 325,477
170 118,480 -82,156 319,116
171 199,250 -2,812 401,312
172 204,131 0,630 407,632
173 254,409 49,486 459,332
174 145,843 -60,494 352,180
175 141,503 -66,238 349,244
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 16,0 40,9 55,3 61,3
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,100 0,008 0,012 0,065
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
164 202,326 6,800 397,852
165 157,433 -40,600 355,467
166 213,671 13,161 414,181
167 241,457 38,501 444,413
168 250,512 45,138 455,885
169 198,389 -9,373 406,151
170 217,882 7,758 428,006
171 234,213 21,754 446,672
172 296,201 81,431 510,970
173 241,228 24,173 458,283
174 204,417 -14,900 423,734
175 193,833 -27,722 415,389
ARIMA Model: Tembesi(163)
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 15,1 35,1 49,7 56,4
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,088 0,028 0,031 0,118
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
164 203,178 9,036 397,320
165 157,409 -40,543 355,361
166 213,269 14,045 412,492
167 242,371 41,884 442,858
168 250,673 48,930 452,416
169 198,376 -4,615 401,367
170 217,572 13,341 421,803
171 234,717 29,253 440,181
172 296,781 90,092 503,470
173 240,820 32,912 448,727
174 199,404 -9,715 408,522
175 189,358 -20,965 399,680
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 14,7 34,4 50,2 56,8
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,101 0,033 0,028 0,111
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
164 211,100 16,755 405,445
165 162,529 -37,609 362,668
166 218,904 16,735 421,074
167 245,016 41,174 448,858
168 255,217 49,757 460,676
169 202,186 -4,873 409,245
170 222,039 13,394 430,685
171 237,308 27,088 447,528
172 299,300 87,517 511,083
173 245,361 32,027 458,695
174 208,686 -6,189 423,560
175 197,435 -18,968 413,838
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 28,7 50,6 60,0 74,6
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,002 0,003
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
164 175,523 3,398 347,648 172,000
165 148,988 -27,717 325,694 157,000
166 200,106 22,815 377,397 367,000
167 253,454 75,912 430,997 407,000
168 242,127 64,382 419,873 317,000
169 183,274 5,334 361,213 190,250
170 194,254 16,122 372,385 289,000
171 309,984 131,661 488,306 291,000
172 226,015 47,502 404,529 259,000
173 214,701 35,996 393,406 59,000
174 140,195 -38,700 319,091 220,000
175 122,430 -56,656 301,516 77,000
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 28,7 50,6 60,0 74,6
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,002 0,003
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
427 175,039 2,914 347,164
428 193,568 16,862 370,274
429 143,859 -33,432 321,150
430 218,707 41,164 396,250
431 297,933 120,188 475,679
432 264,968 87,029 442,908
433 182,002 3,870 360,133
434 197,054 18,732 375,377
435 251,579 73,066 430,093
436 253,100 74,395 431,805
437 211,232 32,337 390,128
438 165,279 -13,807 344,365
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 42,9 65,8 74,1 91,5
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
427 177,355 2,831 351,879
428 203,097 27,978 378,215
429 156,765 -18,946 332,476
430 232,149 55,847 408,451
431 309,019 132,128 485,910
432 277,748 100,271 455,226
433 195,287 17,225 373,350
434 210,946 32,301 389,591
435 267,983 88,757 447,209
436 265,812 86,007 445,617
437 224,627 44,244 405,009
438 176,544 -4,414 357,502
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 30,3 52,7 62,1 77,2
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,001
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
427 177,287 4,168 350,406
428 198,009 21,663 374,356
429 147,338 -29,305 323,981
430 222,440 45,501 399,380
431 303,591 126,356 480,826
432 269,307 91,777 446,836
433 185,596 7,771 363,420
434 200,214 22,095 378,332
435 253,029 74,617 431,441
436 257,754 79,049 436,459
437 215,572 36,574 394,570
438 171,132 -8,159 350,422
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 18,8 48,9 58,7 70,5
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,001 0,000 0,001 0,002
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
427 174,941 3,927 345,954
428 210,959 35,230 386,688
429 126,955 -51,708 305,618
430 204,132 25,468 382,796
431 297,702 118,698 476,707
432 268,534 89,367 447,701
433 178,178 -1,202 357,558
434 197,547 17,971 377,122
435 220,573 40,797 400,349
436 266,362 86,387 446,337
437 209,051 28,877 389,226
438 194,430 14,057 374,803
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,9 24,2 37,0 45,6
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,275 0,233 0,248 0,405
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
264 310,744 108,523 512,965
265 208,141 3,914 412,368
266 260,961 56,248 465,674
267 329,821 124,703 534,940
268 342,525 137,008 548,043
269 219,353 13,438 425,267
270 162,523 -43,789 368,835
271 160,036 -46,671 366,744
272 165,198 -41,905 372,300
273 154,860 -52,637 362,357
274 247,670 39,779 455,560
275 359,741 151,458 568,025
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 8,5 16,4 26,5 36,0
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,075 0,426 0,543 0,651
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
264 304,671 108,330 501,011
265 211,381 13,129 409,633
266 275,830 77,576 474,083
267 316,927 118,327 515,527
268 319,573 120,961 518,185
269 185,648 -13,238 384,535
270 163,273 -35,641 362,187
271 135,072 -64,069 334,212
272 164,595 -34,588 363,779
273 110,051 -89,325 309,428
274 178,607 -20,827 378,040
275 393,821 194,217 593,424
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,1 18,3 28,9 41,3
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,011 0,193 0,314 0,328
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
264 291,404 94,256 488,551
265 212,442 13,232 411,653
266 265,730 66,498 464,961
267 315,984 116,604 515,365
268 313,191 113,753 512,628
269 190,873 -8,672 390,418
270 161,252 -38,368 360,872
271 146,099 -53,615 345,813
272 165,998 -33,798 365,794
273 106,644 -93,241 306,529
274 173,759 -26,211 373,729
275 414,715 214,657 614,772
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 13,8 27,1 39,3 47,7
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,181 0,206 0,246 0,405
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
179 259,205 54,652 463,757 387,000
180 266,563 61,452 471,674 448,000
181 180,953 -24,714 386,621 180,000
182 188,370 -17,853 394,593 149,000
183 238,845 32,068 445,622 197,000
184 248,939 41,610 456,268 466,000
185 148,794 -59,086 356,674 93,500
186 115,601 -92,828 324,031 70,000
187 151,807 -57,170 360,785 37,000
188 115,028 -94,496 324,552 53,000
189 124,782 -85,287 334,851 0,000
190 225,311 14,699 435,924 35,000
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 11,6 26,8 38,1 46,1
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,235 0,177 0,249 0,428
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
179 259,206 56,673 461,740 387,000
180 272,913 69,940 475,885 448,000
181 191,465 -11,945 394,876 180,000
182 220,831 16,984 424,679 149,000
183 251,190 46,906 455,474 197,000
184 251,763 47,043 456,482 466,000
185 148,039 -57,115 353,193 93,500
186 106,677 -98,910 312,264 70,000
187 127,344 -78,676 333,364 37,000
188 117,099 -89,353 323,550 53,000
189 138,541 -68,342 345,423 0,000
190 234,942 27,630 442,255 35,000
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 11,2 23,3 33,7 42,0
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,260 0,326 0,432 0,602
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
179 261,744 63,853 459,636 387,000
180 287,296 89,377 485,214 448,000
181 197,410 -0,536 395,356 180,000
182 242,104 44,131 440,077 149,000
183 258,030 60,029 456,030 197,000
184 267,825 69,797 465,853 466,000
185 144,504 -53,551 342,560 93,500
186 110,778 -87,304 308,861 70,000
187 117,286 -80,824 315,396 37,000
188 121,195 -76,942 319,333 53,000
189 136,128 -62,036 334,293 0,000
190 228,913 30,721 427,105 35,000
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 12,0 20,3 29,7 47,8
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,287 0,566 0,677 0,401
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
179 390,646 172,632 608,661
180 355,901 134,206 577,596
181 338,635 113,320 563,950
182 281,583 52,705 510,461
183 412,994 180,607 645,380
184 364,591 128,748 600,434
185 309,810 70,560 549,059
186 251,246 8,639 493,854
187 245,568 -0,352 491,488
188 228,968 -20,221 478,157
189 227,661 -24,754 480,076
190 263,761 8,161 519,362
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,5 19,4 28,8 46,3
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,313 0,560 0,678 0,417
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
179 396,694 178,720 614,667
180 365,656 143,863 587,449
181 335,110 109,563 560,658
182 298,998 69,757 528,238
183 419,683 186,808 652,558
184 370,892 134,438 607,346
185 305,275 65,296 545,255
186 246,928 3,474 490,382
187 247,654 0,775 494,533
188 216,082 -34,175 466,340
189 220,837 -32,754 474,429
190 254,335 -2,547 511,216
ARIMA Model: Bathin(178)
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,3 17,7 27,3 45,4
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,406 0,667 0,744 0,454
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
179 408,126 187,901 628,352
180 364,231 140,072 588,390
181 325,050 97,024 553,075
182 304,355 72,529 536,181
183 400,512 164,945 636,078
184 353,442 114,194 592,690
185 288,666 45,793 531,539
186 235,099 -11,347 481,544
187 230,584 -19,383 480,551
188 204,682 -48,757 458,121
189 208,236 -48,629 465,101
190 240,261 -19,984 500,506