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Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 13,3 34,6 47,0 54,7
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,101 0,023 0,042 0,130
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 289,965 100,034 479,896
160 384,335 191,226 577,444
161 291,396 96,476 486,316
162 250,712 54,058 447,365
163 244,685 46,316 443,054
164 279,863 79,794 479,932
165 229,759 28,003 431,514
166 291,774 88,346 495,201
167 309,231 104,146 514,317
168 331,212 124,482 537,943
169 276,030 67,668 484,393
170 303,969 93,987 513,952
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 13,6 36,9 48,7 56,1
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,137 0,017 0,039 0,123
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 298,402 108,755 488,048
160 385,063 193,347 576,778
161 293,147 99,384 486,910
162 251,714 55,926 447,502
163 246,186 48,393 443,979
164 280,066 80,288 479,844
165 230,914 29,170 432,657
166 292,362 88,672 496,051
167 311,661 106,044 517,278
168 331,725 124,198 539,252
169 277,153 67,733 486,572
170 305,437 94,141 516,732
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 2,9 16,9 30,2 39,7
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,941 0,659 0,556 0,657
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
210 141,961 -62,132 346,055
211 118,552 -85,765 322,869
212 111,608 -92,762 315,979
213 122,395 -82,027 326,816
214 173,440 -31,031 377,912
215 329,719 125,197 534,242
216 308,353 103,781 512,926
217 217,541 12,918 422,164
218 216,719 12,046 421,393
219 325,051 120,327 529,775
220 302,876 98,102 507,650
221 223,109 18,285 427,934
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 1,6 10,7 25,6 35,8
DF 3 15 27 39
P-Value 0,669 0,775 0,543 0,617
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
210 121,874 -72,968 316,717
211 162,655 -32,190 357,501
212 125,073 -70,117 320,262
213 146,483 -48,821 341,787
214 191,965 -3,511 387,441
215 422,209 226,693 617,725
216 347,372 151,766 542,977
217 189,443 -6,174 385,060
218 255,246 59,578 450,913
219 234,261 38,591 429,930
220 298,267 102,567 493,967
221 172,982 -22,718 368,683
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 2,8 16,7 31,2 41,8
DF 7 19 31 43
P-Value 0,902 0,612 0,456 0,525
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
210 131,407 -71,877 334,690
211 106,088 -97,295 309,470
212 99,910 -103,487 303,307
213 106,947 -96,464 310,357
214 163,022 -40,402 366,445
215 316,957 113,520 520,394
216 303,273 99,822 506,723
217 187,779 -15,685 391,243
218 221,619 18,142 425,096
219 310,612 107,122 514,103
220 298,962 95,458 502,466
221 218,188 14,671 421,706
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 25,8 48,6 58,2 75,1
DF 7 19 31 43
P-Value 0,001 0,000 0,002 0,002
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
421 186,989 13,720 360,257
422 199,806 22,666 376,946
423 245,787 68,097 423,477
424 241,067 63,088 419,046
425 201,460 23,228 379,692
426 159,125 -19,354 337,604
427 170,037 -8,688 348,761
428 194,728 15,758 373,698
429 145,125 -34,090 324,340
430 218,176 38,717 397,636
431 302,030 122,327 481,734
432 266,393 86,445 446,340
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 37,7 60,5 68,3 88,5
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
421 196,204 21,096 371,312
422 210,714 35,025 386,403
423 260,624 84,355 436,892
424 251,457 74,612 428,302
425 214,697 37,276 392,118
426 170,845 -7,149 348,839
427 178,376 -0,190 356,942
428 204,203 25,067 383,338
429 154,680 -25,024 334,383
430 230,626 50,356 410,896
431 310,352 129,517 491,186
432 276,476 95,079 457,873
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 12,2 26,5 39,5 49,1
DF 7 19 31 43
P-Value 0,094 0,116 0,140 0,242
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
258 147,596 -53,876 349,067
259 122,262 -80,642 325,167
260 147,855 -55,411 351,120
261 122,151 -81,430 325,731
262 192,590 -11,301 396,481
263 342,019 137,818 546,220
264 299,766 95,255 504,277
265 189,447 -15,373 394,267
266 246,915 41,786 452,044
267 308,899 103,462 514,337
268 320,546 114,801 526,291
269 198,542 -7,510 404,595
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 13,6 28,5 40,2 49,6
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,094 0,098 0,151 0,260
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,6 16,6 27,8 42,1
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,295 0,680 0,680 0,554
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
174 133,786 -89,574 357,147
175 134,532 -92,717 361,780
176 107,656 -123,416 338,727
177 113,146 -121,686 347,978
178 139,573 -98,959 378,106
179 309,138 66,960 551,315
180 261,841 16,073 507,609
181 219,855 -29,452 469,162
182 197,744 -55,052 450,540
183 297,762 41,524 554,000
184 243,687 -15,947 503,321
185 186,256 -76,730 449,243
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,8 23,4 34,0 51,4
DF 3 15 27 39
P-Value 0,021 0,077 0,167 0,088
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
174 176,104 -42,105 394,313
175 143,668 -79,510 366,846
176 133,766 -91,512 359,043
177 107,777 -119,031 334,586
178 161,732 -67,032 390,495
179 338,262 107,912 568,611
180 268,464 36,259 500,670
181 253,060 19,241 486,879
182 172,925 -62,679 408,528
183 365,213 127,986 602,441
184 227,673 -11,286 466,631
185 197,268 -43,314 437,850
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,3 16,4 25,6 40,0
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,244 0,692 0,782 0,646
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
174 152,151 -65,965 370,267
175 138,195 -85,346 361,735
176 101,753 -123,876 327,383
177 105,490 -121,951 332,932
178 137,653 -91,560 366,865
179 285,021 54,054 515,988
180 249,905 17,197 482,613
181 230,023 -4,413 464,459
182 171,340 -64,812 407,491
183 301,334 63,480 539,189
184 250,998 11,453 490,544
185 188,705 -52,519 429,930
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 12,2 18,8 28,1 42,1
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,203 0,599 0,712 0,596
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
174 140,134 -77,788 358,056
175 136,563 -83,990 357,115
176 101,257 -121,894 324,408
177 105,031 -120,689 330,752
178 137,109 -91,152 365,369
179 284,580 53,807 515,353
180 248,379 15,121 481,638
181 229,538 -6,179 465,256
182 170,832 -67,319 408,983
183 300,643 60,083 541,203
184 250,647 7,702 493,592
185 188,610 -56,697 433,917
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 1,6 10,7 25,6 35,8
DF 3 15 27 39
P-Value 0,669 0,775 0,543 0,617
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
210 121,874 -72,968 316,717
211 162,655 -32,190 357,501
212 125,073 -70,117 320,262
213 146,483 -48,821 341,787
214 191,965 -3,511 387,441
215 422,209 226,693 617,725
216 347,372 151,766 542,977
217 189,443 -6,174 385,060
218 255,246 59,578 450,913
219 234,261 38,591 429,930
220 298,267 102,567 493,967
221 172,982 -22,718 368,683
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 2,8 16,7 31,2 41,8
DF 7 19 31 43
P-Value 0,902 0,612 0,456 0,525
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
210 131,407 -71,877 334,690
211 106,088 -97,295 309,470
212 99,910 -103,487 303,307
213 106,947 -96,464 310,357
214 163,022 -40,402 366,445
215 316,957 113,520 520,394
216 303,273 99,822 506,723
217 187,779 -15,685 391,243
218 221,619 18,142 425,096
219 310,612 107,122 514,103
220 298,962 95,458 502,466
221 218,188 14,671 421,706
ARIMA Model: Tembesi(158)
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7,0 16,2 26,6 33,8
DF 3 15 27 39
P-Value 0,073 0,370 0,488 0,707
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 325,205 156,421 493,988
160 272,429 100,984 443,873
161 364,904 176,576 553,232
162 283,454 94,919 471,988
163 305,025 115,382 494,667
164 333,265 142,722 523,809
165 282,193 90,721 473,666
166 318,528 126,137 510,920
167 382,411 189,104 575,718
168 303,874 109,655 498,092
169 248,336 53,210 443,461
170 268,098 72,070 464,127
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 13,3 34,6 47,0 54,7
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,101 0,023 0,042 0,130
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 289,965 100,034 479,896
160 384,335 191,226 577,444
161 291,396 96,476 486,316
162 250,712 54,058 447,365
163 244,685 46,316 443,054
164 279,863 79,794 479,932
165 229,759 28,003 431,514
166 291,774 88,346 495,201
167 309,231 104,146 514,317
168 331,212 124,482 537,943
169 276,030 67,668 484,393
170 303,969 93,987 513,952
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 14,5 35,2 47,9 56,0
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,070 0,019 0,035 0,106
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 283,786 96,032 471,540
160 369,292 179,139 559,444
161 282,449 91,105 473,794
162 237,157 44,628 429,686
163 234,161 40,455 427,867
164 260,207 65,331 455,084
165 216,592 20,553 412,631
166 275,025 77,830 472,221
167 303,785 105,440 502,130
168 315,417 115,929 514,905
169 255,396 54,772 456,021
170 287,229 85,474 488,983
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 18,8 36,5 51,5 60,3
DF 6 18 30 42
P-Value 0,005 0,006 0,009 0,033
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 220,990 2,756 439,223
160 330,344 73,117 587,570
161 185,792 -113,346 484,931
162 158,655 -182,195 499,506
163 143,655 -239,071 526,381
164 207,608 -217,377 632,594
165 125,018 -342,750 592,786
166 210,606 -300,561 721,773
167 129,804 -425,438 685,047
168 225,118 -374,919 825,154
169 143,578 -501,997 789,153
170 143,743 -548,133 835,620
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,9 40,7 49,9 55,9
DF 7 19 31 43
P-Value 0,144 0,003 0,017 0,090
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 237,089 37,684 436,495
160 384,475 176,843 592,106
161 230,463 4,680 456,246
162 236,064 0,577 471,552
163 183,730 -69,819 437,278
164 260,999 -3,602 525,601
165 168,716 -113,980 451,413
166 262,958 -32,016 557,933
167 237,535 -75,659 550,729
168 295,474 -31,111 622,059
169 205,580 -139,417 550,577
170 253,479 -105,922 612,881
ARIMA Model: Tembesi(158)
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 22,6 32,2 42,9 49,1
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,009 0,035 0,154
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 166,599 -69,004 402,202
160 362,999 81,578 644,420
161 165,399 -168,862 499,659
162 211,956 -156,567 580,479
163 198,031 -205,896 601,957
164 393,547 -37,793 824,887
165 250,694 -207,273 708,661
166 425,115 -55,275 905,506
167 156,641 -344,878 658,161
168 434,183 -85,890 954,256
169 302,165 -235,135 839,465
170 296,017 -256,728 848,762
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 16,7 35,6 42,9 50,5
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,002 0,003 0,035 0,123
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 207,02 -100,59 514,62
160 406,35 66,59 746,10
161 78,23 -305,76 462,22
162 154,43 -268,29 577,15
163 174,88 -295,32 645,08
164 422,70 -91,62 937,02
165 218,77 -346,11 783,64
166 533,62 -79,93 1147,16
167 -168,12 -835,17 498,93
168 407,85 -311,82 1127,52
169 240,62 -535,40 1016,64
170 47,65 -784,50 879,81
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 22,6 32,2 42,9 49,1
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,009 0,035 0,154
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 166,599 -69,004 402,202
160 362,999 81,578 644,420
161 165,399 -168,862 499,659
162 211,956 -156,567 580,479
163 198,031 -205,896 601,957
164 393,547 -37,793 824,887
165 250,694 -207,273 708,661
166 425,115 -55,275 905,506
167 156,641 -344,878 658,161
168 434,183 -85,890 954,256
169 302,165 -235,135 839,465
170 296,017 -256,728 848,762
ARIMA Model: Tembesi(158)
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 197,897 -39,138 434,931
160 330,861 74,087 587,634
161 140,121 -158,131 438,373
162 137,811 -187,512 463,134
163 39,096 -311,576 389,767
164 98,105 -275,829 472,040
165 70,152 -323,869 464,174
166 193,612 -219,463 606,688
167 25,998 -403,987 455,984
168 239,759 -206,089 685,606
169 26,220 -434,065 486,504
170 26,092 -447,635 499,818
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 100,2 134,6 169,0 200,3
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 3930 779 7081
160 12950 2417 23482
161 27609 1957 53260
162 51648 572 102725
163 86423 -4135 176980
164 136797 -10753 284347
165 202450 -23791 428691
166 289759 -40997 620514
167 398332 -67398 864062
168 536963 -98889 1172815
169 705518 -140679 1551714
170 910063 -191886 2012012
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 22,6 32,2 42,9 49,1
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,000 0,009 0,035 0,154
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
159 166,599 -69,004 402,202
160 362,999 81,578 644,420
161 165,399 -168,862 499,659
162 211,956 -156,567 580,479
163 198,031 -205,896 601,957
164 393,547 -37,793 824,887
165 250,694 -207,273 708,661
166 425,115 -55,275 905,506
167 156,641 -344,878 658,161
168 434,183 -85,890 954,256
169 302,165 -235,135 839,465
170 296,017 -256,728 848,762
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 17,1 42,0 51,2 65,8
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,002 0,000 0,005 0,006
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
422 155,520 -14,106 325,146
423 253,116 79,131 427,102
424 217,824 41,421 394,227
425 198,094 21,673 374,515
426 128,681 -47,922 305,285
427 148,273 -28,388 324,934
428 186,680 9,928 363,432
429 116,301 -60,530 293,132
430 191,377 14,464 368,291
431 275,783 98,788 452,778
432 253,592 76,515 430,668
433 167,348 -9,810 344,506
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 11,2 21,1 32,9 42,1
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,024 0,174 0,239 0,381
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
259 132,495 -66,074 331,063
260 153,835 -46,071 353,740
261 120,017 -79,901 319,935
262 182,732 -17,325 382,788
263 346,213 146,125 546,301
264 306,240 106,047 506,432
265 182,778 -17,460 383,016
266 263,280 62,954 463,605
267 300,785 100,404 501,165
268 306,817 106,358 507,275
269 182,590 -17,929 383,109
270 140,544 -60,048 341,137
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 18,1 33,2 42,3 71,2
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,000 0,003 0,023 0,001
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
175 268,686 71,709 465,664
176 157,491 -43,415 358,397
177 191,573 -11,514 394,660
178 297,056 92,188 501,923
179 383,573 177,012 590,133
180 305,626 97,401 513,852
181 385,392 175,517 595,266
182 305,463 93,952 516,973
183 500,018 286,884 713,151
184 282,682 67,938 497,426
185 261,267 44,924 477,609
186 82,739 -135,191 300,669
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 1,8 10,9 19,2 25,4
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,414 0,691 0,828 0,941
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
211 177,396 -16,140 370,932
212 159,271 -34,546 353,089
213 159,091 -36,752 354,934
214 267,592 71,610 463,574
215 436,361 239,744 632,977
216 358,495 161,490 555,500
217 216,374 18,890 413,859
218 300,239 102,314 498,163
219 261,536 63,157 459,915
220 342,462 143,636 541,288
221 180,942 -18,333 380,216
222 185,011 -14,711 384,732
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 1,6 11,8 28,1 35,3
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,814 0,758 0,459 0,683
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
211 133,437 -68,975 335,849
212 126,869 -75,801 329,539
213 185,323 -18,510 389,156
214 216,275 11,890 420,660
215 401,804 196,450 607,157
216 345,015 139,013 551,017
217 170,062 -36,810 376,935
218 304,661 97,088 512,234
219 285,709 77,319 494,100
220 313,016 103,900 522,133
221 194,736 -15,168 404,640
222 161,021 -49,621 371,663
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7,6 20,8 30,1 39,0
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,106 0,185 0,356 0,515
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
160 230,815 54,053 407,577
161 235,769 53,957 417,581
162 235,480 37,018 433,942
163 226,709 27,541 425,877
164 277,996 76,432 479,560
165 205,220 1,753 408,687
166 253,131 47,678 458,583
167 282,382 74,985 489,778
168 247,491 38,163 456,818
169 173,639 -37,600 384,879
170 196,764 -16,370 409,898
171 209,748 -5,265 424,761
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 14,3 28,9 39,6 51,4
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,001 0,011 0,043 0,072
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
160 192,398 26,239 358,558
161 171,580 1,516 341,644
162 214,756 24,588 404,924
163 174,224 -16,297 364,745
164 206,104 12,193 400,014
165 182,564 -13,347 378,476
166 223,801 25,506 422,096
167 260,944 60,431 461,457
168 146,405 -56,347 349,158
169 100,596 -104,356 305,548
170 131,036 -76,097 338,169
171 174,906 -34,384 384,196
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 27,6 46,5 55,5 72,5
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,001 0,001 0,006 0,004
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
423 230,513 59,060 401,966
424 225,006 49,222 400,791
425 191,192 14,980 367,404
426 142,580 -33,770 318,931
427 148,723 -27,726 325,172
428 174,489 -2,053 351,030
429 132,462 -44,170 309,094
430 206,859 30,137 383,582
431 281,262 104,449 458,075
432 251,999 75,096 428,902
433 170,881 -6,113 347,874
434 186,485 9,402 363,569
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 41,1 60,6 68,0 88,7
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
423 251,740 77,586 425,894
424 232,553 58,038 407,069
425 197,733 22,857 372,608
426 147,614 -27,621 322,849
427 153,094 -22,500 328,688
428 179,161 3,209 355,113
429 138,111 -38,199 314,420
430 212,618 35,952 389,285
431 285,274 108,252 462,296
432 257,413 80,035 434,791
433 176,336 -1,396 354,069
434 192,152 14,066 370,238
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 29,0 48,3 56,9 74,4
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,004 0,003
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
423 236,959 64,386 409,532
424 230,686 55,167 406,204
425 194,034 18,316 369,753
426 146,081 -29,838 321,999
427 152,487 -23,631 328,605
428 178,114 1,797 354,432
429 134,498 -42,019 311,015
430 209,103 32,386 385,819
431 284,842 107,927 461,757
432 254,538 77,424 431,652
433 173,177 -4,135 350,489
434 188,613 11,102 366,123
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 19,8 44,0 52,8 67,2
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,001 0,000 0,003 0,005
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
423 240,577 72,445 408,709
424 206,236 32,729 379,742
425 198,784 22,871 374,696
426 130,089 -45,834 306,013
427 146,599 -29,333 322,531
428 186,638 10,698 362,578
429 118,245 -57,703 294,194
430 191,978 16,022 367,935
431 271,498 95,533 447,463
432 252,929 76,955 428,902
433 171,027 -4,954 347,009
434 191,893 15,903 367,882
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,9 21,0 33,6 43,6
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,272 0,398 0,388 0,487
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
260 123,109 -71,793 318,010
261 110,679 -86,111 307,469
262 187,656 -9,185 384,498
263 293,954 97,108 490,801
264 284,210 87,361 481,059
265 177,303 -19,548 374,154
266 222,319 25,466 419,172
267 278,090 81,234 474,945
268 290,229 93,372 487,087
269 173,862 -22,997 370,722
270 124,932 -71,930 321,794
271 127,156 -69,708 324,021
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,3 15,5 27,8 34,7
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,054 0,488 0,476 0,708
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
260 176,069 -20,902 373,041
261 135,172 -63,459 333,804
262 202,154 3,513 400,794
263 381,958 182,835 581,081
264 322,349 123,202 521,496
265 191,371 -8,185 390,926
266 285,171 85,575 484,768
267 312,407 112,458 512,357
268 334,592 134,583 534,601
269 172,713 -27,607 373,032
270 158,084 -42,312 358,479
271 112,109 -88,565 312,784
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 12,2 24,7 35,0 44,9
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,201 0,262 0,373 0,478
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
260 149,970 -47,224 347,163
261 132,158 -65,143 329,459
262 207,305 9,896 404,714
263 323,551 126,034 521,068
264 306,690 109,065 504,315
265 198,118 0,385 395,851
266 248,363 50,522 446,203
267 301,898 103,950 499,846
268 313,123 115,067 511,178
269 195,128 -3,036 393,291
270 148,250 -50,020 346,521
271 151,417 -46,961 349,795
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 8,4 17,1 28,2 39,5
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,015 0,250 0,348 0,403
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
260 164,449 -32,403 361,302
261 120,305 -78,962 319,573
262 215,834 16,494 415,175
263 413,461 214,087 612,836
264 294,425 94,995 493,855
265 194,961 -4,511 394,433
266 253,692 54,170 453,214
267 310,585 111,018 510,152
268 304,388 104,774 504,003
269 188,079 -11,582 387,740
270 155,806 -43,902 355,515
271 135,220 -64,535 334,974
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 8,4 17,1 28,2 39,5
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,015 0,250 0,348 0,403
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
260 164,449 -32,403 361,302
261 120,305 -78,962 319,573
262 215,834 16,494 415,175
263 413,461 214,087 612,836
264 294,425 94,995 493,855
265 194,961 -4,511 394,433
266 253,692 54,170 453,214
267 310,585 111,018 510,152
268 304,388 104,774 504,003
269 188,079 -11,582 387,740
270 155,806 -43,902 355,515
271 135,220 -64,535 334,974
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 11,8 18,3 27,9 42,8
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,296 0,691 0,761 0,607
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
176 128,454 -88,213 345,121
177 133,772 -85,751 353,295
178 167,389 -54,953 389,731
179 316,576 91,451 541,702
180 281,660 53,784 509,535
181 264,143 33,550 494,735
182 207,111 -26,167 440,389
183 338,447 102,515 574,380
184 289,959 51,401 528,517
185 235,269 -5,885 476,424
186 176,732 -66,992 420,455
187 167,474 -78,792 413,739
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,3 17,3 26,8 41,7
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,328 0,690 0,770 0,612
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
176 126,878 -89,724 343,480
177 135,172 -84,376 354,720
178 166,178 -56,278 388,633
179 320,850 95,526 546,175
180 289,857 61,699 518,015
181 258,679 27,722 489,636
182 223,088 -10,635 456,810
183 343,489 107,034 579,944
184 294,666 55,509 533,823
185 228,810 -13,019 470,638
186 170,476 -73,994 414,947
187 168,143 -78,942 415,227
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,7 15,7 25,4 40,3
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,376 0,784 0,825 0,669
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
176 132,842 -86,815 352,500
177 143,292 -79,453 366,037
178 172,380 -53,411 398,170
179 340,559 111,764 569,355
180 296,941 65,179 528,703
181 259,249 24,558 493,939
182 237,154 -0,428 474,737
183 333,174 92,734 573,615
184 287,223 43,959 530,488
185 222,579 -23,477 468,635
186 168,900 -79,916 417,717
187 169,617 -81,930 421,163
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,7 22,5 32,6 49,9
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,045 0,127 0,252 0,137
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
176 158,149 -58,420 374,718
177 139,255 -82,774 361,284
178 192,671 -31,763 417,104
179 368,192 141,805 594,579
180 304,693 76,035 533,351
181 290,264 59,624 520,904
182 214,321 -18,495 447,136
183 398,065 163,262 632,868
184 264,994 28,087 501,900
185 236,985 -1,901 475,871
186 148,625 -92,308 389,558
187 167,921 -74,974 410,817
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
176 133,546 -63,878 330,969
177 176,044 -25,091 377,179
178 277,715 74,995 480,435
179 369,806 165,403 574,209
180 286,113 80,114 492,111
181 369,184 161,553 576,814
182 288,078 78,861 497,295
183 486,767 275,953 697,580
184 266,566 54,182 478,949
185 244,251 30,299 458,202
186 69,441 -146,061 284,942
187 158,037 -59,008 375,082
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 0,9 19,0 28,9 36,2
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,999 0,521 0,626 0,791
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
176 134,241 -72,106 340,587 102,000
177 147,515 -59,064 354,094 267,000
178 197,524 -9,851 404,899 98,000
179 373,657 165,488 581,826 313,000
180 344,355 135,395 553,314 341,000
181 218,059 8,312 427,806 117,000
182 262,834 52,302 473,366 346,000
183 314,643 103,329 525,957 263,000
184 328,725 116,632 540,817 341,000
185 234,247 21,378 447,116 273,000
186 155,885 -57,757 369,527 117,000
187 135,878 -78,535 350,290 68,000
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 1,7 18,4 29,0 38,3
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,988 0,562 0,618 0,715
Forecasts from period 211
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
212 116,035 -89,264 321,333
213 126,848 -78,846 332,542
214 180,675 -26,022 387,372
215 340,237 132,572 547,903
216 325,865 117,234 534,497
217 207,577 -2,015 417,170
218 244,952 34,403 455,501
219 332,909 121,408 544,410
220 322,166 109,716 534,615
221 244,911 31,518 458,304
222 157,391 -56,942 371,724
223 133,635 -81,633 348,904
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 1,4 11,3 19,9 26,1
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,490 0,658 0,798 0,927
Forecasts from period 211
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
212 134,454 -59,211 328,118
213 158,698 -35,331 352,728
214 242,951 46,780 439,121
215 422,362 225,978 618,745
216 344,942 147,130 542,754
217 204,622 6,385 402,858
218 296,170 96,833 495,506
219 246,985 47,082 446,888
220 335,988 135,148 536,828
221 179,400 -22,090 380,890
222 170,279 -32,062 372,620
223 146,978 -56,060 350,015
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 16,3 40,6 54,4 60,9
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,091 0,009 0,015 0,070
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
161 196,073 0,224 391,921
162 147,999 -50,175 346,173
163 143,742 -56,731 344,215
164 165,641 -37,105 368,386
165 121,763 -83,230 326,756
166 177,589 -29,627 384,805
167 206,813 -2,603 416,228
168 215,025 3,433 426,617
169 162,838 -50,909 376,585
170 182,006 -33,874 397,886
171 199,225 -18,767 417,217
172 259,935 39,851 480,019
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 15,8 37,1 52,1 59,4
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,071 0,016 0,018 0,074
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
161 176,646 -18,760 372,052
162 151,094 -48,759 350,948
163 146,158 -55,562 347,877
164 170,342 -33,227 373,910
165 124,761 -80,640 330,161
166 181,291 -25,925 388,508
167 208,064 -0,953 417,081
168 217,730 6,928 428,531
169 163,495 -49,077 376,066
170 183,213 -31,114 397,539
171 195,660 -20,408 411,728
172 256,531 38,736 474,326
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 16,0 33,8 49,5 57,5
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,066 0,038 0,033 0,101
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
161 164,229 -29,749 358,206
162 153,749 -46,439 353,936
163 156,202 -45,578 357,982
164 177,902 -24,995 380,799
165 135,146 -68,792 339,085
166 190,635 -14,328 395,598
167 221,124 15,144 427,105
168 228,581 21,588 435,574
169 176,570 -31,430 384,571
170 195,399 -13,604 404,402
171 213,111 3,110 423,112
172 273,830 62,835 484,824
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 8,6 22,1 31,6 39,8
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,073 0,140 0,291 0,477
Forecasts from period 160
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
161 196,889 23,361 370,418
162 146,308 -33,000 325,615
163 220,053 19,558 420,548
164 223,469 22,420 424,517
165 176,874 -26,316 380,064
166 202,117 -2,808 407,042
167 282,397 75,681 489,113
168 177,879 -30,599 386,357
169 122,152 -88,076 332,380
170 133,727 -78,236 345,690
171 183,934 -29,750 397,617
172 223,561 8,170 438,952
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,3 22,5 30,8 38,7
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,010 0,068 0,237 0,438
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
161 185,482 11,674 359,290
162 139,300 -39,286 317,887
163 228,346 28,059 428,633
164 204,831 4,347 405,315
165 181,665 -21,067 384,396
166 206,754 2,536 410,973
167 266,748 60,878 472,618
168 147,367 -60,096 354,830
169 125,106 -83,949 334,161
170 82,634 -127,998 293,265
171 181,831 -30,367 394,029
172 158,613 -55,140 372,365
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 27,2 47,6 56,5 73,2
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,001 0,000 0,005 0,004
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
424 228,714 56,714 400,715
425 191,750 15,566 367,933
426 145,812 -30,890 322,513
427 153,685 -23,245 330,614
428 178,829 1,712 355,945
429 133,277 -44,020 310,574
430 207,376 29,900 384,851
431 285,967 108,312 463,621
432 253,741 75,909 431,574
433 171,745 -6,265 349,756
434 186,783 8,595 364,971
435 240,959 62,594 419,325
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 40,6 61,0 67,9 87,7
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
424 233,282 59,021 407,543
425 197,367 22,604 372,131
426 149,480 -25,784 324,744
427 155,420 -20,344 331,183
428 181,287 5,025 357,548
429 137,072 -39,686 313,830
430 212,178 34,924 389,431
431 287,397 109,650 465,144
432 257,412 79,173 435,652
433 175,556 -3,175 354,287
434 191,554 12,333 370,774
435 249,774 70,065 429,483
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 29,3 48,1 56,8 74,6
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,000 0,000 0,004 0,003
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
424 229,054 56,921 401,187
425 193,559 18,643 368,476
426 144,554 -30,517 319,626
427 150,540 -24,687 325,767
428 176,325 0,943 351,707
429 134,098 -41,439 309,634
430 208,598 32,906 384,289
431 282,983 107,137 458,829
432 253,717 77,717 429,717
433 172,578 -3,577 348,732
434 188,198 11,890 364,507
435 246,641 70,178 423,104
ARIMA Model: Pemayung(423)
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 17,8 43,5 52,3 66,2
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,001 0,000 0,004 0,006
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
424 215,132 45,401 384,862
425 202,780 28,544 377,016
426 133,543 -43,315 310,401
427 155,358 -21,501 332,217
428 192,416 15,309 369,523
429 121,175 -56,040 298,390
430 196,268 18,906 373,630
431 283,555 106,059 461,050
432 260,153 82,520 437,786
433 173,036 -4,733 350,804
434 194,097 16,192 372,002
435 222,263 44,222 400,304
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 14,3 25,4 34,7 41,6
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,001 0,031 0,119 0,319
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
424 233,818 66,850 400,787
425 202,320 30,755 373,885
426 129,807 -44,291 303,906
427 130,841 -43,278 304,961
428 165,222 -9,081 339,524
429 104,408 -69,951 278,767
430 194,676 20,226 369,125
431 290,939 116,410 465,467
432 257,628 83,017 432,239
433 181,293 6,601 355,984
434 199,311 24,538 374,084
435 236,409 61,555 411,263
ARIMA Model: Ma.Bulian(260)
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,7 23,7 36,2 45,0
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,286 0,254 0,278 0,431
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
261 136,735 -64,051 337,522
262 199,133 -3,382 401,647
263 348,392 145,490 551,294
264 306,838 103,614 510,062
265 195,872 -7,669 399,413
266 254,959 51,102 458,816
267 315,089 110,916 519,262
268 326,254 121,766 530,742
269 205,452 0,650 410,255
270 150,730 -54,387 355,846
271 151,810 -53,620 357,240
272 152,073 -53,669 357,816
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,5 21,4 37,2 47,6
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,032 0,163 0,114 0,190
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
261 134,028 -65,114 333,170
262 214,892 13,135 416,649
263 306,488 104,448 508,528
264 266,644 64,603 468,684
265 183,268 -18,773 385,309
266 207,106 5,065 409,147
267 283,638 81,597 485,679
268 291,181 89,140 493,222
269 169,485 -32,556 371,526
270 125,346 -76,695 327,387
271 124,389 -77,652 326,430
272 134,266 -67,775 336,307
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 11,3 25,9 37,0 45,4
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,255 0,209 0,291 0,455
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
261 128,870 -72,172 329,913
262 198,117 -3,271 399,505
263 347,638 145,905 549,370
264 307,710 105,634 509,787
265 195,509 -6,911 397,929
266 255,987 53,224 458,750
267 314,433 111,328 517,538
268 325,294 121,847 528,741
269 204,976 1,187 408,764
270 150,579 -53,550 354,709
271 152,365 -52,104 356,834
272 151,610 -53,199 356,419
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7,9 19,0 29,0 40,2
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,019 0,166 0,309 0,373
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
261 122,549 -73,530 318,628
262 219,888 21,371 418,406
263 468,694 270,146 667,242
264 298,603 100,045 497,162
265 185,464 -13,111 384,040
266 244,552 45,958 443,145
267 313,643 115,032 512,254
268 303,823 105,193 502,452
269 185,779 -12,868 384,426
270 164,930 -33,735 363,595
271 136,809 -61,874 335,492
272 150,568 -48,133 349,269
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 12,1 19,0 27,9 44,6
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,280 0,643 0,761 0,532
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
177 172,399 -46,109 390,908
178 206,001 -15,843 427,846
179 355,402 130,272 580,533
180 320,139 91,769 548,509
181 302,990 71,426 534,553
182 245,999 11,285 480,712
183 377,185 139,363 615,008
184 328,524 87,633 569,415
185 274,022 30,101 517,943
186 215,537 -31,377 462,450
187 209,720 -40,150 459,590
188 193,892 -58,900 446,685
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,5 18,1 26,7 43,2
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,312 0,645 0,774 0,550
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
177 174,349 -44,073 392,771
178 205,372 -16,468 427,211
179 360,090 134,885 585,296
180 328,917 100,395 557,439
181 298,160 66,369 529,951
182 262,394 27,380 497,408
183 382,829 144,635 621,023
184 333,938 92,606 575,270
185 268,263 23,834 512,692
186 209,953 -37,535 457,441
187 210,712 -39,798 461,221
188 178,372 -75,123 431,867
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9,3 16,1 24,8 42,2
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,409 0,766 0,848 0,591
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
177 171,408 -48,973 391,788
178 200,432 -23,054 423,919
179 368,737 142,186 595,288
180 325,450 95,876 555,024
181 286,679 54,122 519,236
182 265,587 30,084 501,090
183 360,342 121,930 598,755
184 315,055 73,768 556,342
185 249,613 5,485 493,741
186 195,906 -51,030 442,841
187 191,853 -57,859 441,565
188 165,286 -87,172 417,744
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 16,3 32,1 40,9 67,5
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,000 0,004 0,031 0,002
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
177 216,281 16,877 415,686
178 307,991 105,011 510,971
179 407,390 202,361 612,419
180 324,994 117,903 532,085
181 393,681 184,576 602,786
182 318,949 107,825 530,072
183 510,644 297,541 723,747
184 299,177 84,096 514,257
185 271,842 54,816 488,869
186 104,038 -114,929 323,005
187 178,641 -42,239 399,522
188 158,169 -64,617 380,954
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 1,2 19,8 30,4 36,2
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,997 0,472 0,549 0,793
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
213 155,192 -52,515 362,898
214 195,102 -12,736 402,940
215 367,156 158,790 575,522
216 346,622 137,730 555,514
217 232,905 23,488 442,322
218 260,887 50,947 470,828
219 345,397 134,934 555,860
220 334,111 123,127 545,096
221 256,234 44,730 467,738
222 168,472 -43,551 380,494
223 146,521 -66,019 359,060
224 157,864 -55,192 370,920
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
213 199,726 -4,078 403,531
214 233,300 29,347 437,253
215 419,525 214,664 624,387
216 375,881 170,709 581,053
217 187,130 -18,729 392,988
218 323,592 117,324 529,861
219 300,431 93,572 507,290
220 336,977 129,657 544,296
221 215,334 7,468 423,200
222 173,496 -34,854 381,846
223 126,292 -82,582 335,167
224 134,374 -74,995 343,744
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 2,0 20,1 30,4 37,5
DF 8 20 32 44
P-Value 0,982 0,453 0,549 0,747
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
213 146,351 -62,044 354,747
214 207,951 -0,943 416,844
215 369,460 159,301 579,619
216 352,891 141,516 564,266
217 238,154 25,568 450,741
218 269,629 55,838 483,420
219 360,871 145,882 575,860
220 347,645 131,465 563,824
221 271,132 53,768 488,496
222 183,175 -35,367 401,718
223 162,132 -57,582 381,846
224 160,703 -60,176 381,583
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 0,8 10,5 17,4 22,2
DF 2 14 26 38
P-Value 0,667 0,727 0,896 0,981
Forecasts from period 212
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
213 166,363 -28,163 360,890
214 307,224 112,530 501,918
215 448,520 252,148 644,892
216 382,645 186,228 579,062
217 232,557 35,382 429,732
218 324,897 127,504 522,291
219 276,180 78,278 474,081
220 357,888 159,671 556,105
221 187,687 -10,956 386,331
222 210,603 11,604 409,603
223 174,735 -24,661 374,131
224 165,966 -33,801 365,733
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 15,0 39,1 52,7 59,0
DF 10 22 34 46
P-Value 0,134 0,014 0,021 0,095
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
162 159,824 -35,659 355,306
163 155,536 -42,058 353,129
164 177,541 -22,141 377,223
165 133,584 -68,165 335,334
166 189,441 -14,355 393,237
167 218,555 12,734 424,377
168 226,827 19,000 434,655
169 174,783 -35,031 384,598
170 193,976 -17,807 405,759
171 211,129 -2,604 424,862
172 273,193 57,528 488,859
173 217,282 -0,299 434,862
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 14,1 34,2 48,5 55,4
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,117 0,035 0,040 0,137
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
162 173,015 -21,732 367,763
163 163,908 -34,527 362,344
164 185,319 -14,437 385,075
165 141,807 -59,262 342,875
166 197,489 -4,883 399,861
167 227,215 23,547 430,882
168 235,157 30,203 440,112
169 182,880 -23,354 389,113
170 201,932 -5,572 409,437
171 219,449 10,681 428,217
172 280,154 70,130 490,178
173 223,739 12,467 435,011
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 13,9 32,3 47,6 54,7
DF 9 21 33 45
P-Value 0,126 0,054 0,048 0,152
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
162 176,833 -17,287 370,954
163 169,131 -30,357 368,619
164 190,172 -10,867 391,211
165 146,488 -55,745 348,721
166 202,199 -1,175 405,572
167 231,781 27,279 436,284
168 239,764 34,140 445,388
169 187,747 -18,992 394,486
170 206,831 -1,018 414,680
171 224,269 15,316 433,221
172 286,390 76,340 496,440
173 230,090 18,948 441,232
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7,8 21,6 31,6 39,5
DF 4 16 28 40
P-Value 0,099 0,158 0,291 0,494
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
162 158,887 -15,499 333,273
163 241,248 61,108 421,388
164 225,101 23,332 426,869
165 180,648 -21,731 383,027
166 201,169 -4,219 406,556
167 288,213 80,637 495,789
168 185,624 -24,304 395,552
169 126,674 -85,532 338,880
170 148,083 -66,389 362,556
171 188,948 -27,763 405,660
172 239,946 21,017 458,874
173 252,399 31,276 473,522