Recent advances in the use of geographical information systems

with particular relevance to veterinary parasitology.

Guy Hendrickx (1), Jan Biesemans (1) and Reginald De Deken (2).
(1) Avia-GIS, Risschotlei 33, 2980 Zoersel, Belgium (corresponding authors).
(2) Institute for Tropical Medicine, Nationalestraat 101, Antwerp, Belgium.

Extended version from: Hendrickx, G., Biesemans J. and De Deken R. (2004) The use of GIS in Veterinary
Parasitology. In : GIS and Spatial Analysis in Veterinary Science, Durr, P.A and Gatrell A.C. Editors. CABI
Publishing, Wallingford, UK, 145-176.

1. Abstract
During the past decades the publication of papers interest related to the use of geographical information
systems (GIS) and/or remote sensing (RS) and of particular interest to veterinary parasitology veterinary
followed an exponential trend. The use of GIS and RS is now generally accepted by the scientific
community as a major tool contributing to the understanding of epidemiological processes sensu lato:
disease –vector –host –environment. Nevertheless, whilst most people now are aware of the potential of
these techniques, many still hesitate to use these tools for research or decision making. This paper reviews
rec entadv anc est owar dsmor ewi despread‘ routi
ne’us eofGI SandRSi npar asit
ology. After a brief
introduction setting historical trends and milestones, followed by a more detailed review of past work in
three chosen fields, tsetse transmitted trypanosomosis, liver fluke and East Coast fever, the authors discuss
how Geographical Information Systems-Science (GIS) is currently evolving towards STIS, Space-Time
Information Systems-Science, an even more holistic multidisciplinary approach encapsulating not only space
but also the time domain. An inventory is made of the different topics addressed during the last two years
separately for disease mapping, spatial epidemiology and decision support systems. Current trends show
that systems based on spatial data analysis and the use of remote sensing are now applied to a wide
variety of diseases and geographical areas suggesting that GIS/RS are now widely used for research and
decision making purposes. Most of the tools and ingredients are now available to further promote the
emergence of STIS reasoning in veterinary parasitology, provided scientists from different disciplines are
prepared to share data and experience. More than ever such technologies and collaborative networks are
needed to help understand and cope with new challenges of a changing world : climate change,
globalization and emerging diseases.

2. An historical perspective
During the past decades the publication of papers of veterinary and human health interest related to the
use of geographical information systems (GIS) and/or remote sensing (RS) followed an exponential trend
(Fig.1 - curve).
Some events have marked the displayed curve. Prior to the review published by Hugh-Jones (1989) in
Parasit
ol ogyTodayon“ theapplicat i
onsofr emot es ens i
ngtot hei dent ifi
cati
onofhabi t
atsofpar asitesand
diseasev ect
ors”,onlyaf ew paper shave been recorded. Of these, 1/3 were related to parasitology and
mainly aimed at identifying mosquito habitats (malaria and Rift Valley fever). A second major event was the
public
ationi n1991byPr eventi
veVet erinaryMedi ci
neofani ss ueon“ Appl ications of remote sensing to
epidemi ologyandpar as it
ology”.Thi sc l
earlyr aisedint er
esti
nt hesenew t ec hnol ogiesandt heav erage
number of publications increased from three papers per two years to 17 per year in the first half of the
1990’s.I nthes ec ondhal foft
he1990’ snumber sfurtherrai
sedex ponent ial
lyandc urrentl
ymor et han60
papers are recorded per year, 60% of which are related to parasitology and vector born diseases. A further
breakdown per subject is given in figure 1 (pie-chart).
Papers on four major disease vectors predominate (69% of published papers): (i) mosquitoes (29%) with
topics including malaria, Rift Valley fever, Lacrosse encephalitis, Dengue, West Nile and Eastern equine
encephalitis, (ii) tsetse (16%) and (mainly) animal trypanosomosis, (iii) ticks (13%) as vectors of Lyme
disease and tick borne encephalitis in Europe and Northern America as well as some African tick born
diseases, and (iv) snail intermediary hosts (11%) of schistosomes and liver fluke. Currently culicoides
midges, major players on the arboviroses and emerging diseases scene, are an upcoming subject.
The applications of GIS and RS in epidemiology and parasitology have been reviewed by several authors
(44 recorded papers). The most recent in dept summary of one decade of research was a special volume of
Advances in Parasitology published by Hay and colleagues (2000) in which all relevant topics were reviewed
in great detail providing the scientific community with the latest landmark in this field.
The use of GIS and RS is now generally accepted by the scientific community as a major tool contributing
to the understanding of epidemiological processes sensu lato: disease –vector –host –environment.
Nevertheless, whilst most people now are aware of the potential of these techniques, many still hesitate to
use these tools for research or decision making. This paper reviews recent advances towards more
wides pread‘rout ine’us eofGI S/ RS–and Space Time Information Systems (STIS) in parasitology.
First we will review past trends: How has GIS applied to the spatial epidemiology of parasitic diseases
evolved from hard copy mapping exercises to interactive decision support tools? To do this we will focus on
three case studies: (1) an insect born disease: tsetse transmitted animal trypanosomosis with particular
reference to West Africa, (2) an intermediary host disease, Fasciola hepatica in the Southern US and East
Africa, and (3) a tick borne disease, East Coast Fever in East and Southern Africa.
In the second part current and future trends will be discussed, starting with a discussion about the
implications of using GIS at an operational level and the need to fully integrate all aspects of time and
space to achieve this goal. In this part a review of literature published since 2000 (the post Hay et al. 2000
era) on topics relevant to GIS and parasitology is given.

3. GIS and the spatial epidemiology of parasitic diseases

From hard-copy maps to multidisciplinary information systems

3.1 Tsetse transmitted trypanosomosis

Arguably the area-wide knowledge of the different factors affecting the interactions between vectors,
parasites and hosts is a prerequisit to understand the spatial epidemiology of the disease and a strong
basis for rational trypanosomosis management. Thus a first step towards understanding those interactions
at a macro-scale will include the systematic mapping of :

the distribution and abundance of the different tsetse species (vectors);

the occurrence (prevalence) and expression (anaemia) of trypanosomosis (parasites);
the distribution and relative importance of cattle breeds and cattle management systems (hosts).
3.1.1 Area-wide mapping
Vectors. Since the early workers established the link between Nagana, caused by trypanosomes, and the
tsetse vector one century ago (cf. Bruce and Kleine reviewed by Hoare 1972), considerable efforts have
been made to map the distribution of the different tsetse species. This wealth of information gathered by
often anonymous field workers at country level has regularly been compiled to produce distribution maps at
a sub-regional or continental scale (Newstead 1924, Nash 1948, Potts 1953, Machado 1954, Buxton 1955,
Maillot 1957, Rickenbach 1961, Ford 1963, Ford and Katondo 1973).
The maps produced by Ford and Katondo (1973) are still considered to be an international standard. They
include nine sheets of 1:5,000,000 maps describing the distribution of the different tsetse species per group
(palpalis, morsitans, fusca) and per sub-region (Western, Eastern and Southern Africa). They have been
locally updated by several authors (FAO 1980, Katondo 1984, Moloo 1985, Gouteux 1990). A detailed
review of past and present tsetse distributions in Southern Africa is given by Van den Bossche and Vale,
(2000) for Malawi, Mozambique, Eastern Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Whilst historical tsetse distribution patterns are often well documented at a country scale (e.g. for West
Africa Challier et Laveissière 1977 and 1981), the problem of mapping tsetse abundance has less frequently
been addressed. Most efforts towards that goal are limited to the monitoring of tsetse populations in areas
earmarked for vector eradication before, during and after suppression campaigns, e.g. the pastoral zone of
Sidéradougou (3.000 km²) - Burkina Faso (Cuisance et al. 1984b). InNor t
her nCôt ed’ Ivoir
e( 134. 000k m² )
tsetse surveys carried out from 1978 to 1981 to help define a rational control strategy for the whole area,
yielded detailed tsetse distribution and abundance maps of all species present (Clair 1982, Clair and
Lamarque 1984). In the Gambia (10.000 km²) an abundance map of G. m. submorsitans was produced
(Rawlings et al. 1993). More recently in Togo (56.000 km²) a set of national distribution maps at a 0.125
degree grid resolution for all species present, G. m. submorsitans, G. longipalpis, G. tachinoides, G. palpalis
palpalis, G. fusca and G. medicorum and abundance maps for both riverine species, G. tachinoides and G.
p. palpalis,waspr oduc edi nthe1990’ s(Hendr ickxetal .1999a) .
Parasites. Whilst tsetse survey results are well documented, few records are known of systematic
mapping of trypanosome distribution and prevalence rates. Most studies report results in a tabular form per
administrative unit (e.g. Awan et al. 1988, Agu et al. 1989). Other examples include some spatial aspects
such as reported by Corten et al. (1988) in Southwest Zambia where surveys revealed that the extent of
the trypanosomosis problem covered a wider area than expected from historical fly distribution data alone.
The recorded fly abundance was expected to reflect disease risk (Cuisance et al. 1984a, Clair and Lamarque
1984) .Ther eforetry panosomos i
ss urveyswer eof tennotc onduc
ted.I npar tsoft heNor thernCôt ed’ Ivoire
area, Camus (1981a) conducted prevalence surveys in 191 herds of the 1,200 herds monitored by the
Société pour le Développement de la Production Animale. Sixteen (16) cattle were sampled per herd. Herds
were classified as either positive or negative. Results were summarised in a table and some spatial variation
of disease prevalence was shown. No link was made with tsetse maps. An analysis of contemporary
zootechnical data showed a significant difference between positive and negative herds. In the Gambia
example (Rawlings et al. 1993), a series of integrated trypanosomosis control measures were proposed,
adapted to the different levels of G. m. submorsitans abundance. In a later study Snow et al. (1997)
showed positive correlations between the recorded tsetse abundance figures and disease prevalence in
cattle, small ruminants and equids.
Only a few studies aimed at area-wide trypanosomosis mapping. In Togo in addition to the entomological
surveys mentioned above, herds were systematically sampled at the same spatial resolution (0.125 degree
grids). After transformation, obtained results yielded detailed country-wide raster maps of parasite
distributions and prevalence as well as herd aneamia (Hendrickx et al. 1999b). This work was later
extended to Western Burkina Faso along the Mouhoun river system. Data one disease prevalence and the
prevalence of anaemic cattle were combined to map epidemiological patterns clearly showing changing risk
levels according to the impottance of drainage systems (Hendrickx and Tamboura, 2000).
In Southern Africa point measurement maps were produced summarising trypanosomosis surveys
conduc t
edi nt he1990’ sinMal awi( 159s ampl i
ngs i
tes),Moz ambique( 274s ampli
ngsi
tes
),Zambi
a(128
sampling sites) and Zimbabwe (62 sampling sites) (Van den Bossche and Vale, 2000).
Hosts. Epstein (1971) discussed the distribution of cattle breeds on a continental scale. In Western and
Central Africa ILCA (1979) and FAO (1987) produced cattle breed maps per country. Per country figures are
given for each larger administrative region. Maps combined with pie-charts depict the presence of dominant
cattle breeds. In addition information is provided on breed performance and husbandry systems. No maps
are given of the latter.
In Nor t
hern Côte d’Ivoi
re Camuset al. (1981) studied, as part of the same study on trypanosomosis
prevalence mentioned above, breed distributions and the effect of increasing zebu pressure on sedentary
tauri
ne her dsaftert he droughtsoft he 1970’ s.Cat tl
e wer ec lass i
fi
ed asei therBaoul é( Wes tAfrican
ShorthornTaurine),N’ dama( Wes tAfricanL onghor nTaurine), Zebu or Taurine –Zebu crosses. Data were
gathered from the SODEPRA extension workers. Schematic maps are given of sedentary cattle distributions
per breed separately for reproductive females and males. Densities are shown as dots of respectively 500
or 5,000 head. The economic impact of trypanosomosis on those different breeds was further discussed by
Camus (1981b).
In the Gambia the ITC (International Trypanotolerance Centre) team involved in the examples given above
developed a low cost rapid appraisal methodology where results of field surveys are combined with two
socio-economic questionnaires including topics on (i.) farming systems and village economics and (ii.)
livestock and tsetse (Snow et al. 1993).
Finally during the same Togo-study mentioned above an exhaustive country wide cattle survey yielded
0.125 degree cattle distribution and breed maps (Hendrickx et al. 1999b). Cattle breeds were characterised
as either trypanosusceptible, i.e. Zebu, trypanotolerant, i.e. West African Short Horn Somba or crossbreeds
(Fig.2 – Maps A-B-C-D). Obtained results using a phenotypic key were validated using micro-satellite
technology (a measurement of Zebu introgression) on a sub sample (Hendrickx et al. 1996 and Dao 1998).

3.1.2 Remote sensing to assist disease mapping

The influence of climatic variables on the distribution and abundance of tsetse has long been recognised,
both at a local (Nash 1937) and regional level (Nash, 1948) through years of field study. Nowadays, the
increased availability of satellite imagery allows us to draw up much improved vector distribution maps
(Cline 1970, Hugh-Jones 1989, Riley 1989, Epstein et al. 1993, Washino and Wood 1994, Hay et al. 1997).
Satellite images offer several advantages over field surveys; data are free from any human bias, make
remote places accessible, are continuously produced and show real time information.
Rogers and Randolph (1993) pioneerd the application NOAA derived NDVI (Normalised Difference
Vegetation Indices, a measurement for the amount of vegetation activity) data plus ground measured
temperature and elevation data, to predict the distribution of Glossina morsitans and G. pallidipes in Kenya
and Tanzania. Taking the historical fly distribution (Ford & Katondo, 1973) as a reference, satellite derived
predictor variables were selected and an accuracy of respectively 84 and 79% correct predictions was
obtained when predicting G. morsitans and G. pallidipes presence.
For West Africa, Rogers et al. (1996) carried out a similar exercise and produced distribution limits of eight
different tsetse species encountered in Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast, at a 0.167 degree resolution. The
satellite data in this study comprised Fourier-processed NDVI, Channel 4 (linked to ground temperature)
and CCD values (Cold Cloud Duration, linked to rainfall). As before, historical records served as the
reference fly distribution (Laveissière and Challier, 1977, 1981). Selecting the 10 best predictor variables, a
74 - 87 - 67 and 71% correct description, including all the data in the training set, was obtained when
predicting the abundance respectively of G. tachinoides, G. palpalis, G. m. submorsitans and G. longipalpis.
In Togo Hendrickx et al. (1993, 1996) and Rogers et al. (1994) introduced discriminant analysis of satellite
data to identify tsetse habitat as an attempt to minimise the use of ground collected data and to optimise
satellite imagery application. In their final paper Hendrickx et al. (2001) non-linear discriminant analysis
models were used in combination with Fourrier processed AVHRR-NOAA predictor data to produce spatial
predictions of fly distribution for G. m. submorsitans, G. longipalpis, G. tachinoides, G. p. palpalis, G. fusca
and G. medicorum. Obtained results yielded presence/absence accuracies of >90%. Low-Medium-high
abundance models were also produced for both riverine species, G. tachinoides (70% correct) and G. p.
palpalis (56% correct). Three other aspects linked to vector prediction were also studied: (1) the effects on
accuracy of using a spatial sub-sample to predict the remainder of the country, (2) the effects on accuracy
of the number of predictor variables included in the models and (3) the accuracy of using trainingsets to
predict fly presence in non-adjacent areas. Not surprisingly decreasing the size of the trainingset
systematically reduced the accuracy of the predictions. The effect of the number of predictor variables was
less straight forward. It was shown that accuracy increased to a maximum with an increasing number of
predictor variables for sampled grids included in the training set. However for grids not included in the
training set predictions were allways maximised with fewer predictor variables as compared to results
obtained in grids included in the training set. This highlighted the risk over overfitting models to restricted
sub samples. Finally it was clearly shown that one should be cautious when using training sets to predict fly
presence in non-adjacent areas. The huge discrepancies observed between prediction of fly presence in
Togous ingdat afrom Côt ed’ I
voireandBur kinaFas oandt heobs ervedTogomapsc learlysugges tedt hat
whilst training set quality may certainly play a role, multivariate conditions at the grid level were (are) far to
different between those two areas to produce accurate enough results. This work was later extended to
Western Burkina Faso in eco-climatical dryer areas complementary to the prevailing conditions in Togo. The
aim was to map fly-ecology patterns along the Mouhoun river system (Fig.2 –E) as a contribution to the
understanding of riverine fly fragmentation patterns at their distribution limits.
The developed Togo approach towards georeferenced trypanosomosis management was further extended
to Burkina Faso. Results included maps of (1) epidemiological patterns and (2) fly-ecology patterns on the
Mouhoun river in Western Burkina Faso (Hendrickx and Tamboura, 2000).

In Southern Africa Robinson et al. (1997a, 1997b) analysed the historical distribution of G. m. centralis, G.
m. morsitans and G. pallidipes in the common fly belt of Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe (Ford
and Katondo, 1973) using NDVI, ground measured temperatures, rainfall and elevation. Multivariate
techniques included were linear discriminant analysis, maximum likelihood classification and principal
component analysis. For each species, the best predictor variables were selected and the discriminant
functions applied to produce 84 to 92% correct predictions. Interestingly the analysis successfully identified
the geographical limits of both subspecies of G. morsitans present.
As for field surveys, remote sensing has been mainly used to assist in mapping the vectors which
distribution and abundance is dependant on eco-climatical variables. The sole example of predicting
trypanosome distribution and prevalence rates is the above mentioned Togo study. Using similar techniques
as described for tsetse spatial prediction models were produced for the prevalence of Trypanosoma
congolense and T. vivax (Hendrickx et al. 2000). In addition prediction maps were also produced for
average herd packed cell volume (PCV, a measure of aneamia, the most important symptom of
trypanosomosis). For trypanosomosis highest prediction accuracy was obtained (resp. 83% and 89%) using
in addition to remote sensing a set of anthropogeneric predictor variables. Not surprisingly, since many
other causes may affect aneamia, the accuracy of PCV predictions was significantly lower.

3.1.3 Integrated spatial data analysis and management in a GIS environment

To date different approaches have been explored to use GIS towards a better understanding of the
epidemiology and / or impact of tsetse transmitted trypanosomosis in order to assist rational disease
management. Such studies were conducted at a continental, sub-regional, national and local level.
At a continental scale Reid & Ellis (1995) performed GIS simulations using data on tsetse distributions,
human population, cattle densities and protected or conservation areas, with the aim of identifying the
possible environmental implications of eventual trypanosomosis control. Maps were generated depicting the
areas where trypanosomosis control may, from an ecological perspective, be (1) «encouraged», i.e. areas
of agricultural intensification, (2) «banned», i.e. areas of high ecological integrity, or (3) «recommended
with caution», i.e. areas of agricultural extensification. In a further study Reid et al. modelled, also at a
continental level, the effect of an expanding human population and associated agriculture on the
distribution of tsetse fly species. The spatial model included a combination of fine-resolution human
population data, field data and the distribution of different types of tsetse. Results suggest that by 2040,
many of the 23 species of tsetse fly will begin to disappear as the area of land infested and number of
people in contact with flies will also decline. However, an area of Africa larger than Western Europe will
remain infested by tsetse and under threat of trypanosomosis for the foreseeable future.
At a sub-continental scale FAO conducted a series of studies in East, West and Southern Africa (FAO 1997).
The rationale here was to select areas where trypanosomosis control would yield high agricultural benefits,
integrating data on tsetse fly distributions, human habitation pattern, cropping areas and cattle densities.
Tentative farming systems were defined, based on ecozone related, geographic clusters of typical
combinations of (i.) farmer densities, (ii.) the portion of land brought into the cultivation cycle and (iii.)
cattle numbers. These different 'farming systems' were next matched with the tsetse distributions, to allow
the likely outcome of any tsetse control, expressed in terms of expected changes in the mount of cropping
and livestock. In case of missing field data, multivariate analysis models and National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite data were used to compensate for these shortfalls. The results
are believed to aid the prioritisation of areas in particularly eastern and western parts of Africa. Obtained
results have been embedded in the FAO-PAAT1 information system (Gilbert et al. 1999).
At the regional scale data layers from the PAAT-IS have been used, together with other data to assist in the
area wide planning of tsetse control in West Africa (Hendrickx 2002 and Hendrickx et al. 2003). Based on
the results of a livestock production systems analysis and on a series of hypotheses concerning riverine fly
ecology different approaches for integrated vector control were suggested and pathways for future
research were proposed.
ln Southern Africa (Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe) Doran and Van den Bosche (2000) developed
a strategy to identify priority areas for control based on the detailed knowledge of socio-economic,
institutional, technical and environmental variables (SITE). This decision making process to be fully
operational must be seen as a dynamic process in which potential and existing control activities would need
to be filtered by each SITE criterion on an ongoing basis. Whilst not yet applied in practise this system is
the only one including a strong time factor.
At a national level Robinson (1998) integrated data from Eastern Zambia on tsetse distribution, agricultural
land use intensity, net stocking rates and arable potential, in order to identify areas where tsetse control
may be appropriate for relieving direct disease pressure and areas were control could potentially relieve
land pressure. This approach was further refined in a second paper (Robinson et al. 2002).
In Togo (Hendrickx 1999) developped a GIS based decision support system using the various data layers
on vector, parasites and host described elsewhere in this paper. Different decision tree models were
developped adapted to the prevailing mapped livestock production systems. The system was used to plan a
national extension campaign focussed on disease management and the involvement of private veterinary
practioners and auxilliaries (bare foot vets). This also included some areas earmarked for vector control. In
these selected priority areas an additional study was conducted to model soil fragility, a crucial factor for
sustainable mixed farming development (Van Camp et al. 1999).
Finally a series of fine scale studies were conducted at he local level using high resolution satellite imagery.
De Wispelaere (1994) integrated SPOT derived data on vegetation and land use to discern G. m.
submorsitans habitat on the Adamawa plateau in Cameroon. Kitron et al. (1996) used Landsat imagery in
the remote Lambwe Valley (Kenya) to predict favourable fly habitat. De La Rocque (1997, 2001b) combined
high resolution satellite imagery, entomological data, disease prevalence, hydrography, landscape patterns,
land-use and animal husbandry data in an attempt to identify major discriminating factors of tsetse
presence and trypanosomosis risk at a 30 meter resolution, in Sidéradougou, Burkina Faso. Currently
targeted vector control activities are conducted focussing on epidemiological hotspots (de La Rocque,
personal communication). In addition the combined experience of the Togo and Burkina Faso projects (see
also above) serves as a basis to further study fly fragmentation and dispersion patterns on the Mouhoun
river in Western Burkina Faso (de La Rocque and Hendrickx, personnal communicatiuon).
In the Didessa Valley (Ethiopia) Erkelens et al. (2000) used a series of environmental variables and Landsat
TM imagery to map priority areas for tsetse control based on a cost-benefit appraoch addressing both
questions: (i) Where does trypanosomosis have a negative effect on (agricultural) development? and (ii) In
which areas will control measures have the highest impact/economical benefit? Currently different ongoing
projects in the area are further refining this approach.

1
PAAT : Program Against African Trypanosomoses. PAAT Information System:
http://www.fao.org/paat/html/home.htm
3.2 Snails and liver flukes

3.2.1 Hard copy maps

Priortot he1990’ sfew at t
empt shavebeenmadet omapf asciol
os i
s.Int erestingl
ymos tofthes eear l
y
studies did not focus on habitat mapping of the intermediary hosts but rather on observed disease data, i.e.
looking at the problem from a veterinary perspective.
Int his‘pre-GI S’periodOl lerenshaw ( 1960)publ i
shedc r
udec hlor oplet
hmapsf orEngl andandWal esatthe
county level showing predicted and obeserved disease in sheep. Forecasts were made using climatic
conditions occuring in the previous six months excluding winter, a method derived from a model developed
in Anglesey (Ollerenshaw and Rowlands, 1959). Based on a visual comparison between the expected
incidence and the observed cases it was concludedt hata‘ reasonabl ec or
rel
ation’coul dbes hown.Some
years later Boray (1969) published a sketch map of South East Australia deviding the area in five endemic
areas of fluke defined by temperature-rainfall regimes. The used appraoch was very crude and mainly
based on the extrapolation of disease prevalence results from a limited number of tracer studies.
In 1980 Watt published chloropleth maps of Victoria, Australia, showing the prevalence of condemned
bovine livers (slaughterhouse data) at the shire level. High prevalence areas were visually correlated with
high rainfall and irrigation areas. In this book Durr and Gatrell revisit this dataset and confirm this
correlationus i
ngs pat i
alr egressiont ec hniques.Al astsigni
ficants tudyoft his‘pre-GIS’er ainvolves
mapping of the intermediary hosts. Maps produced by Wright and Swire (1984) show a broad visual
association between snail habitat and gley soil classes. The distribution of snails is shown to be patchy
within given wet soil classes and the associated wetland plants.

3.2.2 Digital spatial data

A first series of studies addressed the fasciolosis problem in Louisiana, USA. Based on previous work where
Malone et al. (1987) concluded that a developed climate forecast model did not account for local variations
in observed prevalences, Zukowski et al. (1991) used a raster GIS to overlay snail habitats traced onto an
aerial photograph and digitised USGS soil maps of the coastal area of Louisiana. As a first step snail habitat
was associated with certain soil types on a primary study farm. These results were further confrmed when
the association was extended to another 12 maps. In a further study Zukowsky et al. (1993) found a good
association between the proportion of high risk soil types and snail habitats, this relationshp was less clear
for disease risk.
Malone et al. (1992) used a more complex GIS approach to produce a composite risk index for 25 farms in
the Red River Basin, Louisiana. The risk index included data from (i) digitised USGS soil data updated using
MSS imagery, (ii) slope, and (iii) length of pasture / water course per hectare. A significant regression was
found between the weighted risk index and measured egg counts per farm, a measure of disease in live
animals. The importance of GIS to quantify local risk at farm level was further stressed in Malone and
Zukowski (1992).
In Africa a series of studies attempted to relate Fasciola distribution and abundance to normalised digital
vegetation indices, NDVI, derived from low resolution meteorological satellite data. In East Africa Malone et
al. (1998) used a set of digital agroecological dat layers from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)
and a climate forecast computer model, previously developed for crop productivity models, to construct
forecast index maps, i.e. abundance estimates, for F. hepatica and F. gigantica for different crop production
system zones. The calculated risk forecast for both species combined was shown to be significantly
correlated with average monthly NDVI values, and less so with available disease prevalence data. This
approach was also applied separately to Ethiopia (Yilma and Malone, 1998) using the NDVI rather than a
forecast index. The found spatial association between the predicted and observed distribution of Fasciola
was mainly based on visual map interpretation. The above described Louisiana and East Africa results were
reviewed by the authors in Malone and Yilma (1999).
More recently Fuentes et al. (2001) made an attempt to predict human fasciolosis in the Northern Bolivia
Altipano. Best results were obtained when Fasciolosis was predicted using 1.1 km NDVI data. Nevertheless,
whilst the model correctly predicted abundance ranges in known fasciolosis hotspots, it failed to identify the
absence of disease in areas were the intermediary snail host was known to be absent. Little detail was
given on used statistical techniques. Finally Cringoli et al. (2002) report the mapping of F. hepatica and
Dicrocoelium dendriticum in the Southern Apenines, Italy, using fecal samples of cattle and sheep. The GIS
analysis of point distribution maps revealed an homogenous distribution for D. dendriticum and a focal
distribution for F. hepatica. No attempt was made to use these training data to forecast the spatial
distribution of liver flukes in the area.

3.3 Tick transmitted East Coast fever (ECF)

3.3.1 The pre-GIS era

Early studies mainly focused on the relationship between cattle distribution and ECF. Robson et al. (1961)
showed that in Tanzania, ECF was confined to areas of tsetse absence and cattle presence. In North West
Tanzania, Yeoman (e.g. 1966a) produced maps of cattle density and ECF outbreaks in the study area. It
was possible to draw a line separating endemic (tick always present) and epidemic (tick only present in
favourable years) areas and map the spatial development of the epidemic over a 4 year period. The
relationship between endemicity/epidemicity and rainfall isolines was also studied (Yeoman 1966b). No
direct relationship was found between the number of ticks on cattle and the inter-annual variation in
rainfall.

3.3.2 The Ecoclimatic Index (EI), CLIMEX and the prediction of tick distributions
Int hel at
e1980’ st hei deaofec ocli
mat i
cmat chingwasf i
rstappl i
ed.Sut herstandMay wal d( 1985)
calculated an ecoclimatic index (EI) for Ripicephalus appendiculatus for selected sites world wide based
upon the distribution of the tick in Kenya. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the observed and
predicated distribution. The absence of the this tick in West Africa despite a predicted climatic suitability
was noted.
Based on these encouraging results the approach was further refined. In Zimbabwe Maywald and Sutherst
(1987) used a more detailed application of EI with expanded climatic data to explain the distribution of R.
appendiculatus at four sites in terms of stress indices. In the same study a more detailed map of predicted
climatic favourability for R. appendiculatus was given for Africa. The absence of the tick from Ethiopia was
noted. In another study in Zambia (Sutherst and Maywald, 1987) the same approach was used to predict
areas of enzootic instability for theileriosis, i. e. those areas with interrupted transmission and loss of
immunity in calves. An EI threshold of <20 was suggested to indicate the tick is not well suited to that
environment.
CLIMEX is a software package, developed by CSIRO, http://www.ento.csiro.au/climex/climex.htm, for
predicting the potential distribution and relative abundance of species by matching climates in and outside
sampl edar eas.I nt
heear ly1990’ sILRI,f ormer lyknownasI LRAD,i nit
iatedusingt hissoftwar et oforec ast
tick distributions.
A first study (Norval and Pery, 1990) determined CLIMEX values for 1972-86 at a single weather station in
South-East Zimbabwe. Though this paper did not involve a spatial study as such, the authors explained the
spread and subsequent disappearance of ticks by run of favourable years as determined by EI values. A
first spatial data set was depicted in Lessard et al. (1988, 1990) who used Arc/Info software to map the
disease –theileriosis, the vector –R. appendiculatus and the hosts –cattle and buffalo for Africa with a
special focus on East and Southern Africa. Interpolated climatic data at a resolution of 625 km² were used
to train CLIMEX predictions for all pixels. A vegetation map based on average monthly NDVI values was
also included. In this paper the authors only briefly discussed biological processes. Nevertheless the
discussion was taken further by (i) Perry et al. (1990) who mapped CLIMEX dry and heat stresses and
discussed tick distribution in relation to such climatic stresses in East and Southern Africa and (ii) Norval et
al. (1991) who identified similar EI and NDVI values between the Kenyan and Ethiopian highlands. The
absence of ticks in South West Ethiopia despite favorable conditions was related to the prsence of tsetse
(tsetse corridor). These different results (Fig. 3) were summarised in Perry et al. (1991) who also
reproduced some of the earlier CLIMEX map outputs in greater detail showing the sensitivity (Se) and
specif
icity(Sp)ofCl imex ’sEIf orR. appendiculatus per grid cell. A visual correlation between NDVI values
greater or equal to a value of 0.150 and tick presence was shown.
In Southern Africa (Lawrence 1991) historical data on East Coast Fever outbreaks (administrative region
resolution) which occurred between 1901 and 1960, were visually related with a CLIMEX generated map on
climatic suitability for R. apendiculatus. This was building further on the results published by Mayward and
Sutherst in 1987. It was concluded that the CLIMEX favourability map overestimated tick suitability areas.
Finally the different CLIMEX outputs were summarised by Andrew et al. (1994) for the African continent
with special reference to East and Southern Africa.

3.3.3 Remote sensing, an added value for mapping tick ditsribution patterns
Thegrowi ngav ail
abi l
i
tyofr emot es ens i
ngpr oductss i
nc et hel at
e1980’ s–ear
ly1990’
sopened new
avenues for understanding and predicting area wide tick distributions.
Early exploratory studies covering Zimbabwe explored the relationship between mean monthly NDVI and
ecoclimatic zones. NDVI was related to rainfall and is was shown that commercial grazing lands averaged a
higher NDVI value than adjacent communal areas (Kruska and Perry 1991). Based on an an extensive
georeferenced data set including eco-climatic data, cattle distributions, boundaries between commercial
and communal land, EI for ticks and ECF outbreaks Perry et al. (1991) and Kruska and Perry (1992)
reported (no analysis given) a visual relationship between tick, desease outbreaks, EI and agro-ecoclimatic
zones. The boundaries between commercial and communal lands were obtained from Landsat MSS imagery
and Theissan polygones were used to convert cattle numbers at dip-tanks into area distribution values.
By relating seasonally variable tick mortality rates to remotely sensed vegetation data for Burundi,
Ouganda, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and South Africa a major breakthtrough towards understanding area wide
tick distributions and abundance was achieved (Randolph 1993, 1994, 1997). By showing that
meteorological satellite sensor data, i.e. NDVI, seem to be a reliable marker for tick performance, given one
would take regional heterogeneities into consideration, a sound biological justification was provided for
using this type of variable in a purely statistical GIS framework to define the environmental characteristics
of sites where ticks do occur and others where they do not (Randolph 2000). Using discriminant analysis
and NDVI, temperature and altitude as predictor variables de spatial distribution of R. appendiculatus was
modelled for Zimbabwe, Kenya and Tanzania (Rogers and randolph 1993) (Fig. 3).

3.3.4 Towards mapping disease risk

Whilst the relationship between spatial tick distribution patterns and remotely sensed and ground measured
eco-climatical data has been shown, this relationship is less clear so for the disease. As was shown for
trypanosomosis (Hendrickx et al. 1999) antropogenic factors such as husbandry systems, grazing
management, vector control and treatment against the disease, are mostly not related to eco-climatic
spatial settings and therefore blur the picture.
Most efforts towards mapping ECF were conducted by ILRI teams to contribute to decision support to plan
2
“inf
ec t
ionandt r
eat ”i
mmuni z at i
onc ampai ngs( Per r
yandYoung1995) .Sinc ei
nmos tc asess t
udi es
towards that goal involve several visits of the same farms in time, collected samples to be analysed at the
laboratory and the implementation of socio-economical questionnaires these studies usually cover limited
areas. Results are therefore difficult to extrapolate.
Delehanthy (1993) used a GIS to map agro-ecological and socio-economical variables of livestock farmers
in Uasin Gishu district in West Kenya. The aim was to identify areas were immunization might be most
applicable.Inhi sdi s cus si
ontheaut hormai nl
yaddr es sedt hediffi
cultyofex trapol
atingf rom “ datar ich”to
“datapoor ”areas .I nt heCoas tProvi
nc eofKeny aDeem etal .(1993)s howedanECFgr adi entin3out4
coastal agro-ecozones (AEZ). In a later study Gitau et al. (2000) analyzed epidemiological patterns in a

2
The aim is to infect young cattle with live strain of Theleiria Parva, the causative agent of East Coast Fever, and
administering at the same time a curative drug treatment. This approach provides up to three years protection.
series of contrasting agro-ecological and grazing strata in Muranga district in highland Kenya. It was
concluded as for the previous studies that the link between ECF and AEZ may be a key towards
understanding spatial patterns of ECF outbreaks.
Duchateau et al. (1997) developed a spatial logistic regression model to predict presence/absence of ECF
using the geo-referenced data set of Kruska and Perry (1992). Results included maps of outbreak
probabilities for Kenya and residual distribution patterns. Much attention was given to reduce the size,
whilst retaining a maximum of information, of the spatial predictor variable data base which icluded ground
measured climatic data, remotely sensed NDVI and landcover. This was achieved using principal
component analysis and subsequent varimax rotation of the obtained principal components. The same data
set was revisited by Pfeiffer et al. (1997) using three spatial regression models including the autologistic
model of Augustin et al. (1996). The spatial models selected the same variables as in the previous study.
Recently ILRI has put efforts into collating the results of different longitudinal and cross secetional
epidemiological studies conducted in the framework of their ECF immunization activities and covering a
series of different settings (both from an AEZ as an animal husbandry point of view) in coastal and highland
Kenya. Results obtained todate are mitigated (Clements & Pfeiffer 2001, Martinez 2002). Currently efforts
are under way to improve these results (Perry, personal communication).

4. About GIS, semantics and teamwork

Theac rony m‘ GI S’c anbei nt
erpr etedt wof old:( 1)Geogr aphi calInformat i
on‘ Sy st
ems ’,whi chenc aps ulates
thedi ff
er entc ommer ci
als oft
war epac kagesand( 2)Geogr aphi calInformat ion‘ Science’,whi c hrec ogniz es
the fact that almost every process in nature displays some pattern in the space domain. While the first
int
er pretationonl yinvolv esthe‘s ystems ’tos toredat aandt oper forms omeel ement ar yoper ati
onsont his
data, the latter includes the multidisciplinary techniques for the description of the spatial patterns of natural
processes.
As GIS-Science evolves, one could argue that GIS-software systems will never meet the full requirements of
every end-user: a geologist might need a totally different toolset as a parasitologist. Although the toolsets
become larger as new versions of GIS software systems emerge, GIS system developers recognize the
problem thati tisi mpos siblet ofulfi
lev eryone’ sneedsandar et herefor edev elopingandc ommer ciali
zing
API ’
s( Appli
cationPr ogr ammi ngI nterface) to enable the end-user to develop her/his own specific tools
without having to deal with data file formats or elementary GIS operations (e.g. point in polygon
operations, buffering, overlays). However, because IT-standards develop and alter at a mind-blasting speed
and because the traditional educational background of the majority of environmental scientists is definitely
not focused on IT-related problem solving, this may even further strengthen the general feeling that GIS is
nice,but…
In additionmos tGISrel atedr esear chfocuseson‘ Wher e?–What ?’andof tenc ompl etelyi gnor
es‘ When? ’
.
Because this time domain is equally important in most environmental processes, it has been suggested to
expandt heac rony m‘GI S’towar dsSTI S,st
andi ngforSpac e-Time Information Science/Systems (Kyriakidis
and Journel, 2001a and 2001b). STIS aims to model processes in order to support our decisions and is now
emerging in many university departments, no matter the subject these departments are dealing with (Fig.
4). Also, STIS recognizes that all data features some degree of error/uncertainty and that our knowledge is
imprecise or not exhaustive and tries to incorporate this uncertainty throughout the analysis (Heuvelink,
1998, Biesemans, 2000; Goovaerts, 2002). Although the knowledge of the confidence level of the model
results is vital information for decision-making, uncertainty propagations are often (if not almost always)
neglected.
The list of techniques encapsulated by this new concept of STIS is massive and reaches far beyond the
capabilities of currently available GIS software packages. It is therefore an advantage to form
multidis ci
pl i
nar ygroupst ot acklet hepr oblemsi nvol
ved.Thi si deaof‘ sci
entif
icclust
ering’i snowaday
s
enhanced by many governmental organizations, which only assign research funds if such clusters are
formed.
Such STIS reasoning offers a series of advantages such as: (a) it is an important step towards an
integrated management of our natural resources, (b) people become aware of the techniques used in other
scientific research fields and (c) since STIS reasoning stimulates to integrate uncertainty analysis in the
expert systems and thus in the decision making process uncertainty and/or error should not be considered
as‘ bad’or‘ evil
’anymore.
But there are not only advantages involved with STIS reasoning. Major disadvantages include: (a) the level
of complexity is rising, (b) computer related technology has become a key tool to analyze environmental
problems and the technology (both the hard- and software standards) still evolves fast, making it a
demanding task to keep up pace with these developments, (c) there is a lack on standards, which does not
favor the portability of STIS/GIS data and the software modules which work with this type of data.
Obviously, one can pinpoint many subjects were the STIS science/technology can be improved, however, it
iscleart hatt heupper‘ di
sadvant ages ’ar emor e‘topicsas ki
ngf orfur therresear chanddev elopment ’than
fundamental disadvantages. Maybe the only real disadvantage or pitfall in STIS reasoning is that some
mightl i
nkc ompl ex i
tywi t
haccur ac y .Compl exmodel smightbe‘ better’thans impl emodel s,howev erthisis
definitely not a rule of thumb. It all depends on their way of implementation and thus the way of
reasoning. If one takes this attitude, it is clear that STIS reasoning is a major step forwards: it initiates and
consolidates a more holistic approach in the decision support cycle.

STIS, from theory to practice

Whilst it is clear that the proposed expansion of the GIS concept to STIS opens new avenues for
collaborative research what products may one expect and how far is the parasitologist from routinely using
these tools?

Mapping
Mapping is a crucial step towards understanding the spatial epidemiology of parasitic diseases. Vector and
host distributions are directly related to eco-climatic conditions. Therefore populations can be described in
great detail using a variety of ground measured and remotely sensed environmental and geographical
correlates. Apart from simple presence/absence modeling the mapping of spatial patterns may also address
population density and time dependent seasonal fluctuations or longer term trends. The latter includes the
likely impact of climate change.
The collection of field data on parasites, vectors or (intermediary) hosts, including the identification of
gathered samples, is notoriously time consuming and expensive. Different approaches have been
developed to allow the extrapolation of point field survey data to continuous probability maps of
presence/absence or abundance.
Though in some studies, the distribution of sampling points may be dens enough to produce usable point
density maps without need for further inter- or extrapolation, e.g. a study on liver flukes in Southern Italy
(Cr
ingol ietal
.2002) ,inmos tc as esiti sn’
t.
One way around this problem is to establish correlations between distribution data and landscape
categories. These techniques were already in use prior to the RS/GIS era, e.g. the mapping of Ixodid ticks,
including Ixodes persulcatus, in Siberia and the Soviet Far East by Korenberg (1973, 1976), Vershinina et
al. (1974), Korenberg and Lebedeva (1976) and Kiselev (1979). Based on historical and field collected
transect data, tick populations were related to landscape types at a local and regional scale. Ten main types
and 26 regional subtypes of habitat were identified in Asiatic Russia. Further subdivisions were
characterized by the relative proportions of the different tick species found in each area. The aim of these
maps was to link discrete tick populations with tick-borne encephalitis and rickettsiosis foci and to conduct
epidemiological forecasting also based on seasonal activity patterns.
Currently such techniques have been further refined and now include the use of high resolution satellite
imagery (Landsat, Spot) to fingerprint landscape types using various supervised and unsupervised
classification techniques. Most recent examples focus on the mosquito vectors of malaria and the snail
intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis. The former in the Republic of Korea (Claborn et al. 2002), India
(Darakhshan et al. 2002) and Japan (Anno et al. 2000) and the latter in China (Zhou et al. 2001 and 2002,
Yang H.M. et al. 2000, Yang G.J. et al. 2002, Seto et al. 2002, Gao et al. 2001), Egypt (Abdel Rahman et al.
2001) and Madagascar (Jeanne 2000). Other topics included mapping Culiseta melurna, the vector of
Eastern Equine Encephalomyelitis in Massachusetts, USA (Moncayo et al. 2000) and a study on the
transmission and intermediary hosts of alveolar echinococcosis in Tibet (Danson et al. 2002).
Whilst the cost of high resolution satellite data, used in the studies listed above, limits their use to relatively
small areas, other techniques, relying on data from meteorological satellites, have been developed for area-
wide mapping. Using this approach distribution maps at a 8 to 1 km resolution are now routinely produced.
Point measurements of the variable to map, e.g. a vector, are related to grided environmental predictor
variables. Various statistical techniques are then used, including regression models and discriminant
analysis, to calculate the probability of presence in non sampled grids thus creating a continuous
distribution map based on scattered point observations.
This approach has been adopted to a wide range of (vectors of) diseases and geographical settings
relevant to the veterinary parasitologist3. Recent examples include the definition of malaria free areas in
Tanzania (Omumbo et al. 2002), the mapping of helminth distributions in Cameroon (Brooker et al. 2002),
the mapping the distribution of the mosquitoes in Japan (Kobayashi et al. 2002), the mapping of different
chromosomal subtypes of Anopheles gambiae in West Africa (Bayoh et al. 2001), the mapping of Rift Valley
fever outbreaks in Kenya (Assaf et al. 2001), the mapping of schistosomiasis and its snail intermediary host
in Ethiopia and Eastern Africa (Malone et al. 2001 and Kristensen et al. 2001) and in Brazil (Bavia et al.
2001), the mapping of fascioloses in Bolivia (Fuentes et al. 2001), the mapping of tsetse in East and West
Africa (Wint 2001) and in South Africa (Hendrickx et al. 2002) and the mapping of Culicoides midges in the
Mediterranean Basin (Baylis et al. 2001, Wittmann et al. 2001).
In addition to mapping the distribution of parasites, vectors and intermediary hosts, similar approaches
have also been used to map the distribution of livestock (Wint et al. 2002). Currently distribution data at a
5 km grid resolution are available for Europe, Asia and Africa on the world wide web,
http://ergodd.zoo.ox.ac.uk/livatl2/index.htm and on CD-Rom (Wint et al. 2001). Data on Northern, Central
and Southern America have been processed (Wint 2002a & b) and will be available to the user community
soon as will be regular updates and improvements of existing maps.
Whilst it is not the purpose of this paper to discuss statistical methodologies (see elsewhere in this volume),
it nevertheless is important to briefly discuss some issues related to training data, i.e. observed or historical
data used to feed spatial prediction models. Ideally the sampling procedure should follow the following
steps: (a) define homogenous eco-climatic strata in the area under consideration, (b) select randomly grids
to sample within each stratum, (c) sample the variable to model following the same standard procedure in
each selected grid.
Eco-climatic strata may be defined by clustering the available ground measured and remotely sensed
environmental correlates using standard statistical software. A dendrogram should be used to define the
number of relevant clusters to include. Whilst this is relatively straightforward, deciding how many grids to
sample is far less so. If the total area is large enough (Hair et al. 1995) and the sampled grids are carefully
selected, as little as 1% of the grids under consideration may be sufficient (Lark 1994). Often the final
number sampled will be a compromise between statistical relevance and available funding, infrastructure
and manpower.
Some additional tools are available to upgrade observed training data prior to predict continuous spatial
distribution patterns. Recently geo-statistics have been used to achieve this goal (Biesemans et al. 2002).
Whilst the adopted approach is still experimental and current work aims at improving outputs, results
obtained to date are promising (Fig. 5).

3
Since techniques applied to (vectors of) human diseases are also relevant for the veterinary parasitologist, therefore
some medical references have also been included in this paper.
Spatial epidemiology and the time dimension.
Whilst the previous part dealt with the development of individual data layers in this part some recent
developments towards understanding the spatial epidemiology of vector borne and/or parasitic diseases are
highlighted with special emphasis on studies including a time dimension.
In a series of studies conducted in China (Yang H.M. et al. 2000, Yang G.J. et al. 2002) the impact of
flooding on the habitat and distribution of the intermediary snail host of schistosomiasis has been studied in
great detail. Ground validation indicated that such an ecology based approach taking into consideration
specific environmental conditions associated with the extent of annual floods correctly predicted potential
snail habitats and contributed to understand seasonal habitat differences, a key factor for integrated
disease control. In an additional study Seto and colleagues (2002) identified key factors hampering the
development of predictive models of the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis: (a) different subspecies of
Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediary snail host are adapted to distinct habitats ranging from
mountainous to floodplain habitats, (b) environmental changes resulting from the construction of the Three
Gorges Dam and global warming threaten to increase snail habitats. The understanding of these factors are
a prerequisite for accurate risk mapping and the identification of priority areas for schistosomiasis control.
In Burkina Faso historical tsetse distribution records and Spot (high resolution satellite imagery) time series
analysis allowed to link changes in tsetse distribution and density of two riparian species, Glossina palpalis
and G. tachinoides, and increased human activity as depicted by land use changes and cattle densities.
Results allowed to identify anthropogenic and environmental factors affecting either positively or negatively
riparian tsetse populations (de La Rocque et al. 2001a). Such indicators are essential to predict human
impact on riparian tsetse populations in the region, a little know subject and a key to current area wide
tsetse suppression plans.
The study of historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in Kenya from 1950 till 1998 revealed that outbreaks
followed periods of abnormal high rainfall in otherwise dry habitats (Linthicum et al. 1999). More than ¾ of
these events have been linked to the warm phase of the El Nino Southern oscillation phenomenon. During
these abnormal rainfall periods dry dambos, distinct mosquito habitats, are flooded resulting in the hatching
of transovarially infected mosquito eggs, the start of a new epidemic (Assaf et al. 2001). The mapping of
ecological conditions using satellite recordings of vegetation show increased greenness up to five months
prior to outbreaks thus stressing the forecasting potential of this type of approach.
An analysis of the seasonal variation in abundance of larvae and nymphs of ticks in seven European
countries showed that larvae consistently started feeding and questing several months earlier in the year,
when nymphs are also active, at sites within Western type tick born encephalitis foci (Randolph et al.
2000). Such a synchronization between live stages is a prior condition for outbreaks to occur (Randolph et
al. 1999). Using satellite derived time series of Land Surface Temperature (LST) it was shown that this
behavioral pattern was associated with a higher than average rate of autumnal cooling relative to the peak
midsummer LST. It was concluded that this link between satellite signals and biological processes is a key
to predictive risk mapping (Randol phetal .2000a) .Suchi nformati
onisc rucialtot estdiffer
ent“ whati f”
temper atur es c enar
io’sl i
nkedt oant i
cipatedgl obalcli
mat ec hangepatterns( Hought onetal .2001)t o
predict spread or decline (Randolph et al. 2000b) of this disease.
Other teams also used multivariable GIS models to study the spatial epidemiology of tick born disease
outbreaks. In the North Central United States (Guerra et al. 2002) results showed that the presence and
abundance of Ixodes scapularis varied, even when the host population was adequate. Using different
modeling techniques risk maps were produced indicating suitable habitats and areas of high probability
where ticks are likely to become established should they be introduced, thus highlighting both the
explanatory and predictive capability of such models. An important feature given the upsurge of these
emerging diseases. In Italy a multivariable GIS model was developed linking the probability of tick (Ixodes
ricinus) occurrence and the probability of occurrence of infected tick nymphs at a 50/50 m resolution
(Rizzoli et al. 2002).
Decision support systems.
Spatial decision support systems take spatial analysis one step further: from understanding epidemiological
patterns to planning integrated control schemes.
As seen in the first part of this paper a leading field in this domain is African tsetse transmitted
trypanosomosis where decision support tools have been developed at various scales. Data feeding those
systems originated from (a) extensive pluri-disciplinary field surveys on vectors, hosts, parasites and socio-
economics, (b) a wide range of contemporary eco-geographical environmental correlates and (c) access to
various historical data bases. Decisions are made by ranking identified sets of key variables. The different
approaches used in these models have been reviewed in the first part. It nevertheless is important to note
here that except for the Sideradougou study, where historical data on land use and tsetse distribution
changes are part of the decision making procedure, and for SETI, were a continuous data influx in
considered a conditio sine qua non for succes, none of the developed systems include a time component
dealing with seasonal variation and medium term forecasting.
No other examples are known to us of multidisciplinary information systems aimed at planning integrated
control of animal parasitic diseases over a large area. Most other existing information systems focus on
vectort ransmi t
ted‘ emer ging’infecti
ousdi s eases( Wes tNile,BlueTongue,Ri f
tValley,) or human parasitic
diseases (Malaria, Schistosomosis).
In Mpumalanga province, South Africa, a GIS based information system was implemented to plan malaria
control (Booman et al. 2000). The system functions in three steps: (a) data collection: a simplified reporting
system allowed for improved malaria reporting at the village and town level, (b) data analysis: the
definition of high risk areas and the stratification of malaria risk within those areas, (c) disease control: the
planning and implementation of more efficient disease control. In the Republic of Korea (Claborn et al.
2002) a GIS based information system was used to compare costs of malaria chemo prophylaxis with costs
of larvicidal treatment of potential mosquito breeding areas around two U.S. military camps.
In China mathematical models are currently developed to describe the transmission of schistosomosis using
georeferenced field data and remote sensing inputs (Spear et al. 2002). Though still at an experimental
stage it is expected that such models will produce sufficiently precise predictions to discriminate among
competing control options.
The advent of (re)emerging diseases having a potential impact on public health boosted the funding of
research towards (web based) forecasting systems. It is clear that other fields such as veterinary
parasitology will greatly benefit from these developments.
A leading example in this field is the NASA based website on the spread of West Nile virus in the United
States of America4. Data on virus occurrence in migratory birds, human cases of disease and mosquito
popul ationmoni tori
ngands atelli
tederivedf orecastsar ecombi nedt opr oduc eupdat edr i
skmaps .“The
idea is to let the satellite capture where the disease is spreading from year to year and make some
predictions about where the disease is going. Computer models can determine which areas have the right
combinations of temperatures and moisture levels most suitable for mosquitoes and transmission. Then,
efforts and resources can target those high-risk areas. The goal of the program is to extend the benefits of
NASA's investments in Earth system science, technology and data toward public-health decision making and
practice."
In Australia the National Arbovirus Monitoring Program operates a web based information system,
http://www.namp.com.au, mapping risk areas for Bluetongue, Akabane Virus and Ephemeral Fever Virus.
The aim is to (a) to facilitate international trade in Australian livestock (export certification), (b) act as a
Bluetongue early warning system, (c) assist producers and exporters in risk management (NAMP, 2002).
Risk models are based on sero-conversion data from a network of sentinel animals and data on Culicoides

4
See also for more information the following online papers :
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020828phap.html and
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020204westnile.html
midges from insect traps located near these animals. Currently efforts are also underway towards the
development of disease forecasting systems (Cameron 2000a & b). Results obtained with such information
systems are of particular interest to Europe and the Mediterranean Basin where Bluetongue is currently
emerging following the invasion of Culicoides imicola, a major vector of the disease (Wittmann et al. 2001).

Discussion
Current trends show that systems based on spatial data analysis and the use of remote sensing are now
applied to a wide variety of diseases and geographical areas. This is particularly the case with the use of
meteorological satellite data to predict spatial distribution patterns of parasites, vectors, intermediary hosts
and hosts, not only in the tropics but also at subtropical and temperate latitudes (Green and Hay 2002).
Developed methodologies are now robust enough to be included more routinely in spatial epidemiology
studies and for decision support. Though meteorological satellite data are freely downloadable from
internet, e.g. NOAA-AVHRR data at http://www.saa.noaa.gov , data processing to transform raw data into
usable formats remains a bottleneck. Recently software has been developed, http://www.avia-gis.com ,
which allows the user to process downloaded data and to produce composite images in different formats
compatible with commercial GIS software. Besides the parasitologists knowledge of epidemiological
processes and creativity, the sole remaining limit now is hard disk space and computing memory: typically
gigabytes of meteorological data are needed to produce time series covering several years of information.
An increasing number of studies also consider time in addition to spatial analysis. Cited examples include:
the analysis of historical trends, the impact of recurrent natural phenomena such as floods and El Niño and
the seasonal variation of vector populations. Nevertheless many obstacles still have to be overcome to
allow the development of operational parasitic disease forecasting systems. It is anticipated that the current
efforts deployed to monitor and forecast emerging diseases, e.g. West Nile Virus in the United States of
America or arboviroses in Australia, will further boost the development of such systems.
Another opportunity to develop such tools is the raising, not unrelated, interest in monitoring global
changes. These include not only climate changes (Houghton et al. 2001), but also changes related to
globalization: increase in mobility and trade, population shifts towards densely populated areas, increasing
numbers of livestock in close contact with human populations and changes in consumption patterns. All
these factors have a major impact on the epidemiology of animal diseases and can be measured and
monitored in space and time (Slingenbergh et al. 2002).
It is suggested that parasitic and vector born diseases are more likely to be affected by global climate
change (Harvell et al. 2002). Man induced climate change is having measurable effects on ecosystems,
communities and populations and therefore will most likely affect free-living stages and vectors or
intermediary hosts. A greater overwintering success of free living stages and effects on stages in hypobiosis
will have a direct impact on parasite populations resulting in increased disease severity and changing
epidemiological patterns. Shifts in geographic range and abundance of vectors and intermediary hosts may
occur: known vectors of disease may invade new territory and existing (potential) vector populations may
now reach critical mass to allow disease transmission. An increase in temperature will also affect parasite
development and transmission rates resulting in disease spread due to increased vectorial capacity of
endemic vectors. But in some cases the opposite may also be true: changing habitats and climatic
conditions may cause vector extinction or disrupt fragile epidemiological pathways. In any case one will
have to remain cautious and avoid oversimplification when interpreting results as was recently shown by a
study on the non-relationship between malaria spread and meteorological trends in the East African
highlands (Hay et al. 2002).
Both the variety of subjects and the increasing use of the time dimension in spatial analysis suggests that
GIS and RS are now widely used and accepted. Most of the tools and ingredients are now available to
further promote the emergence of STIS reasoning in veterinary parasitology, provided scientists from
different disciplines are prepared to share data and experience. More than ever such technologies and
collaborative networks are needed to help understand and cope with a changing world.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to Peter Durr for assisting in the collection of bibliographical references for the
Fasciola and East Coast Fever case studies and to Peter Durr and Tony Gatrell for reviewing the
manuscript.

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Legend to the figures:
Figure 1 –GIS parasitology papers over time.
Curve: Time distribution of GIS/RS related papers (Source: CABHealth and VetCD).
Pie-Chart: GIS/RS related parasitology papers per topic (Source: CABHealth and VetCD).
A. Review papers;
B. Tsetse and trypanosomosis;
C. ticks and tick borne diseases;
D. intermediary snail hosts, schistosomiasis and fasciolosis;
E. Mosquitos, malaria a.o.;
F. other topics.

Figure 2
Part 1 (top) –Togo animal husbandry systems.
A. Clustered animal husbandry systems: blue = rural extensive systems, red = market oriented
systems, pink = intermediary system (map inlay: source data –cf. Hendrickx et al. 1999b for
more detail)
B. Agriculture intensity: percentage land included in the agricultural cycle.
C. Zebu introgression: proportion zebu or crossbreds as compared to indigenous trypanotolerant
taurine population. Note that zebu introgression is mainly found in market oriented and
intermediary animal husbandry systems.
D. Cattle distribution.
Part 2 (below) –Predicted riverine tsetse distribution patterns in Western Burkina Faso and
South-Eastern Mali.
Four distinct classes are shown: (i) tsetse absent, (ii) fragmented tsetse populations = tsetse are
only present in suitable habitat islands in otherwise hostil eco-climatic conditions, (iii) linear tsetse
populations = tsetse are only found in linear riparian habitats along mainstreams and important
tributaries, (iiii) ubiquitous = tsetse are present in suitable vegetation of entire drainage system
(cf. Hendrickx and Tamboura 2000 for more detail).

Figure 3 (not included here) –The distribution of Rhipicephalus appendiculatus in East Africa.
A. Perry et al. (1991): EI values (CLIMEX) –Observed distribution of R. appendiculatus –Mean
monthly NDVI for 1987.
B. Rogers and Randolph (1993): Discriminant analysis output combining ground measured
(Temp, altitude) and remoltely sensed (NDVI) data –from Rogers and Randolph (1993)

Figure 4: Structural framework of a STIS decision support systems.

Figure 5 : Spatial modelling of the distribution of Glossina austeni in KwaZulu Natal using geo-
statistics and multivariate analysis.
Training data: observed abundance data in the northern part of KwaZulu Natal: total of 1023
sampled locations, 157 of which harvested G. austeni (positives).
a. Geostatistics output. Main objective: extending the number of positive locations to enhance the
performance of multivariate techniques. By indicator variograms and indicator kriging the number
of positive locations, i.e. p>0.6, could be extended to 841 locations.
b. Logistic regression output. A binary logistic regression model was fitted between the
presence/absence of G. austeni and the set of environmental co-variables including NOAA-AVHRR
Local Area Coverage (LAC) 1KM Level 1B satellite imagery in order to extrapolate a map of
potential habitats covering Kwa-Zulu Natal at a 1.1 km resolution.
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