Identification and Modeling of Suitable

Cropping Systems and Patterns for

Saline, Drought and Flood Prone
Areas of Bangladesh
Identification and Modeling of Suitable Cropping
Systems and Patterns for Saline, Drought and
Flood Prone Areas of Bangladesh

Sk. Ghulam Hussain, PhD

Climate Change Unit

Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh (CCDB)
88 Senpara Parbata, Mirpur # 10, Dhaka, Bangladesh
The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply
the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of CCDB concerning the legal status of any
country, territory, administration, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views
expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of CCDB.

Published by: Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh (CCDB)

Copyright: © 2017, Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh (CCDB)

Citation: Hussain S. G. 2017. Identification and Modeling of Suitable Cropping

Systems and Patterns for Saline, Drought and Flood Prone Areas of
Bangladesh. Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh (CCDB).
Dhaka 1216, Bangladesh

ISBN: 978-984-34-2636-4

Price: TK 600
USD 10

Design & Production: A Plus Communication

Available at: Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh (CCDB)

88, Senpara Parbata, Mirpur 10, Dhaka 1216, Bangladesh
Tel: (+880) 2-9020170-3, Fax: (+880) 2-9020227
Email: info@ccdbbd.org
 Acknowledgements
This book is the outcome of a consultancy titled 'Identification and Modeling
of Suitable Cropping Systems and Patterns for Saline, Drought and Flood
Prone Areas of Bangladesh.' The author would like to thank the Christian
Commission for Development in Bangladesh (CCDB) for providing
generous financial support for conducting this study. Special thanks to Tanjir
Hossain, Head of Climate Change Unit, CCDB and his team. Thanks are
also due for Mr. Md. Kamruzzaman, Coordinator-Research, Climate
Change Unit, CCDB for coordinating the work.

The author would like to express his gratitude to Md. Rafique Ahasan
Chawdhery, Senior Research Fellow, AgMIP sponsored CSIFSS
project-Bangladesh Component, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council
(BARC) for his assistance in conducting the cropping pattern survey and in
preparing the manuscript. The author thankfully acknowledges for being
enormously benefited from many technical discussions with colleagues and
officials of Government of Bangladesh.

Finally, the author wishes to acknowledge all the people across different
organizations and farmers who gave their time to be interviewed, as this
study draws heavily on their opinions and insights.

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 Preface
An extremely inequitable consequence of climate change is that
those who have contributed the least to cause it, are most affected.
Most build-ups of GHG gases in the atmosphere has come from
developed countries. Poorer countries bear the brunt in flooding,
storms, and droughts. Bangladesh as one of the countries mostly affected by
climate change, with smaller number of defenses and disaster risk reduction
resources and its economy is at risk from extreme weathers.

Agriculture is always vulnerable to adverse weather events and climatic conditions.

Despite technological advances such as improved crop varieties and irrigation
systems, weather and climate remains key factors in agricultural productivity.
Currently, agriculture in Bangladesh accounts for around 16% of GDP (2014-15), of
which crop sector contributes the lion's share (9%), employs more than 45% of total
labor force directly and supports 75% of the country’s population.

The importance of crop agriculture is much more strategic than its contribution to
GDP. Most importantly, it is vital for food security, because it supplies rice; main
staple food in this country. The prospect of global climate change makes the issue
particularly urgent. Impacts of changing climate will be multifaceted, both
biophysically and socio-economically and will vary greatly by production activities.

Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh (CCDB) was established as

a national non-government development organization in 1973, and has long been
involved in mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change
Adaptation (CCA) into ongoing development programs.

In January 2015, CCDB established a dedicated Climate Change Unit in partnership

with the Bread for the World (BftW) with a major objective to build resilience towards
climate change. The Unit is expected to contribute to filling gaps in knowledge and
programmatic interventions through researches, capacity development,
innovations, and advocacy.

Crop production is adversely influenced by erratic rainfall, temperature extremes,

increased salinity, droughts, floods, river erosions, and tropical storms. All of which

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are likely to increase as a result of climate change. There are changes in cropping
patterns and management technologies. Considering these issues a consultative report
had been prepared titled 'Identification and Modeling of Suitable Cropping Systems and
Patterns for Saline, Drought and Flood Prone Areas of Bangladesh.'

Main objective of this report is to promote understanding of the impacts of climate

change and climate variability and raise awareness through the dissemination of
information. A set of recommendations has been developed, to integrate climate change
adaptation needs in various national actions with focus on issues related to droughts,
floods and salinity management. As a part of its planned research activities, the CCDB
Climate Change Unit intends to explore different cropping patterns in practices and
identify suitable new cropping patterns for saline, drought and flood prone areas of
Bangladesh.

CCDB acknowledges the financial support, received from the Bread for the World and
publication of this report. In particular, we also acknowledge support of Tanjir Hossain,
Head Climate Change Unit and Md. Kamruzzaman, Coordinator (Research), Climate
Change Unit, and other staff members who assisted in this process.

Joyanta Adhikari
Executive Director

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 Executive Summary
Setting the Scene (Chapter 1)
Bangladesh, a South Asian developing country on the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal surrounded
by India on the east, north and south, with a small common border with Myanmar in the south-east.
Most part of the country lies in Ganga-Brahmaputra river deltaic floodplain. The country occupies an
area of 14.76 Mha (million hectares) lying astride the Tropic of Cancer between latitudes 20° 25' - 26°
38' N and longitudes 88° 01' - 92° 40' E. Agriculture is the single most important producing sector of
the Bangladesh economy. It comprises about 16% of the country's GDP, employs more than 45% of the
total labor force directly and supports 75% of the country’s population. The performance of this sector
has contributed to the macroeconomic objectives of the government through employment generation
and human resources development which in turn have a positive impact on poverty alleviation and food
security of the country. Food security remains the key objective of the government and in achieving this
a significant increase has been made in food grain and vegetable production. Remarkable progress
has been also made in fisheries subsector and some in livestock subsector, particularly in poultry.

The floodplain soils occupy 80% of the country’s land area that are formed in alluvial sediments.
Terrace soils cover only eight percent land area comprise a wide range of soils formed over the
Madhupur Clay and on the Barind Tract and locally on the Madhupur Tract. Hill soils include a wide
range of soils formed over consolidated and unconsolidated sandstones, siltstones and shales which
underlie the Northern and Eastern Hills. The agricultural potential of these soils is determined as much
by hydrology- depth and duration of seasonal inundation and risk of flood damage, slope, and
availability of water for irrigation has become increasingly important in determining cropping patterns,
productivity and potential in recent years. The hydrological cycle of Bangladesh is influenced very
much by the presence of the Himalayas in the north and the Bay of Bengal in the south. The country
relies heavily on external water resources and would fall under the threshold of 1000 m3/inhabitant/year
as its available internal resources are less than 652.2 m3/inhabitant/year which is inadequate for
sustaining life and ensure agricultural production of the country.

The climate of Bangladesh is by and large sub-tropical in the north to hot and humid in the south. During
summer (June to October) Southwest monsoon influences the climate. While throughout winter months
(November to March) the climate is controlled by the northeast monsoon. The summer is hot and humid,
and the winter is mild.

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Shrinking and degrading land resources is one of the biggest challenges for Bangladesh. Every year
agricultural land is encroached and is being used for non-agricultural purposes. The average cropping
intensity of the country for the period from 2010-11 to 2014-15 revolved around 190-192%.
Improvement of cropping intensity in rice based cropping system is increasingly important in national
issues such as food security, poverty alleviation, and the creation of job opportunity.

The endowed climate of Bangladesh favors cultivation of a wide range of crops both tropical and
temperate ones, the food, forage, fibre and miscellaneous crops. The major types of food crops are
cereals, pulses, oil crops, tubers, roots, vegetables, fruits, tree nuts, sweeteners, and spices. Fibre
crops include jute, cotton, hemp, and kenaf; but Jute is the dominant one. Miscellaneous crops include
tea, tobacco, ornamental flowers, medicinal plants, etc., but other than tea, the rest of the crops occupy
little over one percent of the gross cropped land.

The total irrigated area of the country is about 7.41 Mha. Various minor irrigation technologies are used
in the country, including low lift pumps (LLP), shallow tubewells (STW), deep tubewell (DTW) and deep
set shallow tubewells (DSSTW) and some manually operated pumps. Shallow tubewells account for
about 62.4% of the total minor irrigation command area.

In Bangladesh, population increase coupled with increasing consumption resulting from rising incomes
will substantially increase the demand for food. With increased food production, available water will
decrease and increasingly the precious commodity will be competed for by multiple users, resulting in
conflicts. The looming scarcity of fresh water resources for irrigated agriculture leaves little choice but
to increase water productivity through using water-smart technologies or growing less water
demanding crops.

Besides these economic shocks and limited resource base for agriculture, there are many challenges
that make Bangladesh vulnerable to environmental hazards. Because of its geographic setting, the
country is exposed to vulnerabilities such as frequent floods, droughts, cyclones, and storm surges that
damage life, property, and agricultural production. Moreover, there are several other challenges in the
road of achieving sustainable food security. The major ones are described in Chapter 2.

Although the Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh (CCDB) has long been involved
in mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) related
activities, its "Climate Change Unit" has been recently established in 2015. As a part of its planned
research activities, the Climate Change Unit undertook this study with the main objective to identify
and model suitable cropping systems and patterns for saline, drought and

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flood prone areas of Bangladesh through review of past and present research work conducted by
different research organizations. The specific objectives of the study are: (i) to prepare an inventory and
summary of cropping patterns practiced in different agroecological zones of Bangladesh; To identify
and analyze suitable systems cropping/cropping patterns particularly for salinity, drought and flood
prone areas based on available references; (ii) to portray and analyze the past research done on crop
modeling in Bangladesh; and (iii) to recommend new and innovative cropping patterns for
experimentation in salinity, drought and flood conditions.

Challenges and Vulnerabilities (Chapter 2)

Bangladesh faces a daunting challenge to feed its growing population from an increasingly diminishing
and degrading natural resource base for agriculture. The demand for food and nutrition in the country
will substantially increase in future, especially, non-rice food. The food demand will be more of protein
from pulses and oilseeds and from meat, milk, and eggs. There are several challenges on the road to
achieving sustainable food security. The major ones are: Growing population, food systems and
requirements, shrinking and degrading land resources, decreasing and degrading water resources,
increasing natural hazards, climate change vulnerability and its impacts on food security and nutrition.

Currently, the estimated population stands at over 160.70 million. It is likely to be 189.70, 204.99 and
214.79 million in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Food and nutrition security depends not only on
food production and consumption but also on the policies that affect food systems, from farm to table.
The annual estimated loss of cropland during 2000-2010 stands at 68,760 ha. Many different
processes of land degradation or land quality change are active due to improper anthropogenic
interventions. The active land degradation processes are water erosion and loss of fertility due to
physicochemical or biological degradation of soils. Besides these, salinity in the coastal area and loss
of newly accreted land and topsoil in the hilly areas adds to the problem. The water crisis is creating a
dangerously threatening situation for biodiversity and agriculture in the northern region of Bangladesh
where the rivers are gradually dying. About 50 rivers are on the verge of dying. The Farakka barrage
accelerates the problem that affects Bangladesh and has caused both long term and short term effects
during the low-flow months. Moreover, the increasing urbanization and industrialization have negative
implications for water quality. The extremely poor quality of the water is not suitable for human
consumption or for irrigation. Groundwater extraction both for human consumption and irrigation has
reached alarming proportions in some places. Arsenic in groundwater is a major health and
environmental concern in Bangladesh. A large-scale contamination of groundwater with arsenic has
been detected in about two-thirds of the geographic area of the country.

The country is vulnerable to many environmental hazards, including frequent floods, droughts,
cyclones, and storm surges and inland salinity. Frequent natural hazards are common that damage life,
property, and agricultural production and their severity is increasing. Different types of flood occur in
Bangladesh. Rainfed transplanted Aman paddy which contributes nearly 40% of the total rice
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production is affected by drought resulting loss of more than 45% of the achievable yield. During dry
and pre-monsoon seasons, wheat, potato, broadcast paddy also suffers yield loss. Because of the
geographic location of Bangladesh and funnel shape of the bay in the south and southeast; severe
cyclone and tidal surges are common along the 710 km long coastal belt, causing severe damage to
life and property.

Water and agriculture are likely to be the most sensitive sectors to climate change-induced impacts,
which would impact the food production negatively and thereby increase the food prices. Agricultural
productivity is highly dependent on climate. Consequently, any major change in climate will have an
impact on agriculture. As a result, food security will be in jeopardy and different types of natural
calamities will put lives at risk. On top of these, high population density will aggravate the problems.
Climate change will affect the productivity of rainfed crops and forage, reduce water availability and
change the severity and distribution of crop, livestock and human diseases. Even though Bangladesh
is a small country, the impacts of climate change on agriculture will vary across the north to south and
from east to west. Climate change is also likely to lower the quality of food crops.

Crops, Cropping Systems and Cropping Patterns (Chapter 3)

The seasonal distribution of rainfall in Bangladesh splits the cropping season and crop selection. There
are three different crop growing seasons with three distinct rice growing seasons in the country.
Bangladesh is blessed with edaphic and climatic resources those are congenial for growing both
tropical and temperate crops. Cereals, pulses, oilseeds, potatoes, and vegetables, spices and fruits of
many different kinds are grown here.

Although the two terms ‘cropping system’ and ‘cropping pattern’ are used interchangeably but these are
two different concepts. Cropping pattern refers to the yearly sequential arrangement of crops or of
crops and fallow in a piece of land; while cropping system refers to cropping pattern as well as its
interaction with resources, technology, environment, etc. Therefore, a cropping system encompasses
cropping pattern, in addition, all components required for the production of a particular crop and the
interrelationships between them and the environment. Sustainability of agricultural production systems
is enhanced when a proper cropping system is followed. There are several types of cropping systems
that are practiced around the globe. Multiple cropping has been advantageous in reducing insect pests
and disease damage in some areas through diversifying the cropping system by introducing plant
species that are non-hosts for certain insects and diseases. Perhaps the most attractive aspect of
multiple cropping to producers is that these systems can boost yields and increase profits.

The cropping pattern changes spatially and temporally. In reality, no cropping pattern can be good and
ideal for all times to come. The cropping systems of a region are decided mostly, by different types of
soil and climatic parameters which determine the overall agroecological setting for suitability of a crop
or a set of crops for cultivation.

CCDB IXI
At farmers' level, potential productivity and monetary benefits act as guiding principles, while opting for
a particular crop/cropping system. These decisions with respect to the selection of crops and cropping
systems are further narrowed down under the influence of several other forces related to infrastructure
facilities, socio-economic factors, and technological developments, all operating interactively at
micro-level. The predominant cropping system in any region is, therefore, the cumulative result of the
past and present decisions by individuals, communities or governments, and their agencies.

Research Design and Methods (Chapter 4)

The study has been conducted basically based on secondary information/data collected through
literature review, field visits, and interviews of key informants/stakeholders. This analytical study was
based on logical analysis and interpretation of research results, available references materials, and
field experiences. Initially, 21 Upazilas of 18 districts covering 14 AEZs of the country in the target
regions were identified as most affected by salinity, drought and flood. In doing this the AEZ, land use,
various hazards, and administrative maps were used as references. Efforts were made to assemble
information on crop simulation modeling related research undertaken by different
organizations/persons in the country as well as other countries of the world. Collected digital maps of
flood, drought, salinity, agroecological regions, administrative units, and others relevant to this study
from different sources. Reproduced some of the maps through digitizing hardcopy maps from books
and journal articles. Used ArcGIS-ArcMap ver. 10.2.2 (ESRI, 2014) geographic information system
software developed by ESRI to generate maps to show the locations and spatial extent and also to
estimate areas of different spatial features of maps.

The limitations of this study are that the survey was conducted only in locations identified as most
affected by the salinity intrusion, drought and flood prior to the interviews and relied on secondary data,
the results of key informant discussions, and the knowledge about the region of the participating
experts. Because of the scope, time and resource allocated for the study data collection at detailed
level through the survey was not possible that can be used for in-depth analysis. The recommendations
focused on the possible cropping patterns that are suitable and feasible for these regions only.

Major Abiotic Stresses (Chapter 5)

Bangladesh is exposed to many natural hazards of different nature and magnitude. These are floods,
cyclones, droughts, tornadoes, cold waves, earthquakes, drainage congestion/waterlogging, arsenic
contamination of groundwater, salinity intrusion, etc. But the nature of such events, the seasons and
extent of effects of the hazards are not the same in all places. In this chapter, only three major stresses
such as salinity, droughts, and floods, are discussed in depth.

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Salinity: Salinization is the most common form of land degradation in the coastal region of the country.
The major saline affected districts are Satkhira, Khulna, Pirojpur, Barguna, Patuakhali, Noakhali and
Cox's Bazar. The main causes of increase in salinity are the decrease of upstream flow of fresh water
and intrusion of saline seawater in the country through coastal rivers, creeks etc. Both magnitude and
extent of soil salinity are increasing with time. Over the last 36 years (1973 − 2009, the extent salinity
has increased from 0.83 Mha to 1.06 Mha. The dominant cropping patterns in this region are Boro − T.
aman, Fallow − T. aus − T. aman, and Fallow − Fallow − T. aman, in the nonsaline with very slightly
saline areas. In the very slightly, slightly and moderately saline areas, the major patterns are Fallow −
Fallow − T. aman, Fallow − T. aus − T. aman, and Boro − T. aman. While, Fallow − Fallow − T. aman and
Shrimp − T. aman are the dominant patterns in the strongly saline areas.

Drought: The impact of the drought is likely to be on the climate and water-sensitive sectors such as
agriculture, hydroelectricity generation, water transport, groundwater recharge, etc. Drought is a
regional phenomenon, and its characteristics differ from one climate regime to another. Commonly,
droughts are classified contextually into four type such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and
socio-economic based on their development and impacts. About 2.7 Mha of land in Bangladesh is
vulnerable to annual drought. Moreover, it is a recurrent phenomenon in some parts of the country, but
the northwest region is mostly drought-prone area because of high rainfall variability.

The dominant cropping patterns in the very severe and severe drought prone areas are Rabi crop − B.
aus − Fallow, Rabi crop − B. aus − T. aman and Boro − Fallow − T. aman. While, Boro − Fallow − T. aman
and Fallow − Fallow − T. aman are dominant in the moderately drought-prone areas. In the moderately
drought-prone Modhupur Tract, the dominant pattern is Boro − Fallow − Fallow. The Fallow − Shrimp −
T. aman pattern is commonly practiced in the drought-prone areas of the saline coastal region.

Floods: Floods are annual phenomena, with the most severe occurring during the months of July and
August. Regular river floods inundate about 20% of the country, increasing up to 68% in extreme years.
Mainly four types of flood occur in Bangladesh at different magnitudes and intensities. These are
monsoon flood, river flood, flash flood and tidal flood. About 1.32 Mha and 5.05 Mha of the net cropped
area (NCA) is severely and moderately flood prone, respectively.

Currently in the river flood prone areas, Rabi crop − B. aus − Fallow, Rabi crop − B. aus − T. aman,
Fallow − Fallow − T. aman and Rabi crop − Mixed B. aus & aman are the major patterns. In the flash
flood prone areas Rabi crop − B. aus & aman, Boro − Fallow − T. aman and Boro − Fallow − Fallow are
the major patterns. While, Boro − Fallow − Fallow, Fallow − B. aman and Sugarcane patterns are
dominant in the tidal flood prone area.

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 An AEZ Based Inventory of Current Cropping Patterns (Chapter 6)
There is a broad range of agroecological environments in Bangladesh because of the differences in
climate, physiography, soils and hydrology. There are significant differences in crop yields and production
among these regions because crop production systems in Bangladesh are highly complex and diverse
and are influenced largely by physical, biological, climatological and socioeconomic factors.

On most floodplains and valleys, cropping pattern is determined primarily by the seasonal flooding
regime, that is the dates when inundation begins and ends, the depth of inundation at peak levels, and
the risk of damage to crop by early, high or late floods.

Not much recent information is available from the secondary sources on cropping patterns by AEZs of
Bangladesh. Researchers made sporadic efforts and some of their research findings are included in this
study. Besides secondary sources of information collected from available literature i.e., books, journals
and other forms of published materials on the world wide web, a survey was administered to obtain a set
of qualitative response from key informants and farmers.

Eighteen Upazila Agriculture Officers and one Sub-Assistant Agriculture Officer of the Department of
Agriculture Extension and two Project Coordinator of Feed the Future of Bangladesh Rice Value Chain
Project from 21 Upazilas of 18 districts were interviewed to generate data on dominant cropping patterns
and innovative practices. Through this effort, out of 73 instances identified 44 different cropping patterns.
The dominant cropping patterns identified were the following: Vegetable vegetable − vegetable, Boro −
Fallow − T. aman, mustard+Boro − T. aman, and Wheat − Jute − T. aman. The extent of the survey
included 14 AEZs of the country.

Interviewed one hundred and twenty farmers in different vulnerable areas from 14 AEZs, 11 Upazilas, and
10 districts to gather information on cropping patterns and innovative practices. The farmers reported 319
cropping patterns out of which 120 identified to be different patterns but the following five were dominant.
Boro (HYV) − Fallow − T. aman (Local), Boro (HYV) − Fallow − Fallow, Boro (Local) − Fallow − T. aman
(Local), Boro (HYV) − Aus (local) − Aman (Local) and Boro (HYV) − Fallow − T. aman (HYV).

Finally, discussed the generated information with the relevant researchers and practitioners to validate
the findings and get valuable comments and feedback from them.

Based on the information provided by different respondents, available literature like journal articles,
annual reports, relevant Upazila Nirdeshikas (Upazila Land Utilization Guides), books, maps, etc.
compiled an inventory of cropping patterns practiced in different agroecological zones of Bangladesh,
which is presented in Table 30 of this document. Effort was made to identify at least three to four dominant
cropping patterns for each of the agroecological regions.

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 Development of New Cropping Systems/Patterns Based on
Current/Innovative Practices in Other Countries Around the Tropic of
Cancer (Chapter 7)
This study looked into the current innovative research activities related cropping systems and cropping
pattern done in other countries/region around the tropic of cancer having climate analogue conditions
like Bangladesh. The countries/region that in focus are West Bengal, Bihar, of India, Myanmar,
Cambodia, Northern Thailand, North Vietnam, and South China. The study also reviewed research
conducted in Bangladesh to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. Validated the
differences and appreciated commons to suggest some new and innovative cropping pattern for
Bangladesh despite there are a lot of hydrological/social/policy differences. The two major regions
around the Tropic of Cancer are the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and the Great Mekong Subcontinent
(GMS) covering several countries and regions of South and Southeast Asia that have climatic
conditions analogous to Bangladesh.

Food security and income in south Asian subcontinent come from major cereals such as rice, wheat,
and maize. The predominant cropping systems in the irrigated and favorable rainfed lowland areas are
rice-rice (R-R), rice-wheat (R-W), and rice-maize (R-M). Rice-rice is common in a tropical climate with
distinct dry and wet seasons such as in South India, and in sub-tropical areas with mild cool winter
climates such as in Bangladesh, Eastern India, and Eastern Nepal. In West Bengal, Rice-Wheat,
Rice-Pulses, Rice-Jute, Rice-Potato, and Rice-Vegetables are the major cropping system. While
Rice-Wheat, Rice-Fallow, Maize-Wheat, Rice-Lathyrus, Rice-Mustard, Rice-Sugarcane, Maize-Fallow,
and Maize-Maize systems in Bihar.

The Great Mekong Subcontinent (GMS) covers several countries or regions of Myanmar, Cambodia,
Thailand, Vietnam and Yunnan Province of China. Rice has long been the traditional food crop and
main agricultural export commodity in most of these countries, but in some countries, its relative
importance is declining. Rice-based farming systems have been the backbone of Cambodia's
agriculture. Like Cambodia, rice has long been the traditional food crop and the main agricultural export
product of Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam and China. Rice is the most important staple of the populations
of these countries. Besides rice, other crops such as wheat, maize, pulses, cassava, sugar cane,
mustard, potato, etc. along with industrial crops like timber, rubber, etc. are also grown.

Economic growth in most rice-producing areas in Asia has caused a relative shift of labor from
agricultural to nonagricultural sectors and has led to a rise in real labor costs in rural areas. The labor
shortage, in turn, has led to the use of labor-saving technologies such as herbicides, direct seeding and
tillage and harvesting machines. A remarkable change in the production variables of modern farming
over traditional plow-based farming has occurred. Still, the most agronomic practices revolved around
tillage and labor-intensive farming. Declining soil organic carbon (SOC) status of soils has been the

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main shift in agriculture from 'traditional animal-based subsistence' to 'intensive chemical and tractor
based' agriculture that multiplied problems associated with sustainability of natural resources. This
chapter also talks about conservation agricultural practices, climate-smart agriculture, and the impact
of climate change on agriculture and crop modelling studies done in Bangladesh.

Coping with the Adverse Conditions (Chapter 8)

The magnitude of climate change impact on different resources would be varied. It is obvious that effect
of the changes would vary because of the local differences in growing seasons, crop management,
differences in the variety, etc. While many aspects of climate change affect crop production, the two
primary threats are heat and drought stress, neither of which has been unanimously defined in the
literature, largely because crops vary in terms of absolute stress thresholds. On top of these, soil
salinity regime in the coastal zone is very likely to increase with climate change which will have an extra
bearing on agriculture. The scarcity of fresh water for irrigation would be a problem especially during
the winter months which will again have a negative implication on crop yield. As the incidences of floods
and droughts are likely to increase in frequency the vulnerability would also increase.

Depending on the local agro-climatic environment as well as the magnitude of the changes easing
strategies has to be developed. With the available technologies, it would be possible to increase food
production substantially, which would depend on the dissemination of these technologies to the
end-users and also on the availability and affordability of extra resources/inputs required for this
purpose. However, under changed scenarios, new technologies need to be developed to combat
climate change and sea level rise coupled with the great pressure of population increase.

The strong trends in climate variability and its extremes already evident, the likelihood of further
changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing
agricultural adaptation more coherently. If climate resilience adaptive measures are put into practice,
most of the losses could be averted. Adaptation to climate variability and extremes events serves as a
basis for reducing vulnerability to long-term climate change. It is understood that the patterns or trends
of the past climate can tell us something about future climate. Strategies developed to manage
year-to-year climate variability can go a long way towards building resilience and managing the risks of
climate. The different adaptation methods that we have collected from literature and have been found
to serve as inputs for the national adaptation strategies have been discussed in this chapter.

Recommended Cropping Patterns for Saline, Drought and Flood

Prone Areas of Bangladesh (Chapter 9)
Biophysical suitability is not always the only criterion for selection of a crop, but food security
sometimes forces the farmer in decision making. Choice of crops is also influenced by price,

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infrastructural and marketing facilities, etc. Farmers do not feel encouraged to grow crops other than
rice if they do not get a good price for their crops or do not have a market for their produce. Even though
production of rice is not lucrative, but farmers are growing rice for their household food security. Choice
of cropping patterns is influenced by the socioeconomic and environmental factors like
preference/need of the land owners, marketability, and profitability, availability of land for timely cultural
operation, agroclimatic suitability, etc.

In selecting the cropping patterns for different stress-prone regions, the crops and varieties included in
the pattern should be able to meet specific requirements. There are many factors to consider in crop
selection. The crop and the variety to be grown should be selected based on its adaptability to the
prevailing conditions of the region or on the farm. The marketability and profitability must be considered
in selecting a crop. The selected crop must be a high yielding one and must have access to a stable
and robust market. When labor and other inputs are used efficiently, the harvest will realize a profit
which can be used to finance the succeeding farm activities or generate substantial return on
investment. The selected crop must be a high yielding and must have an access to a stable and robust
market. When labor and other inputs are used efficiently, the harvest will realize the profit which can be
used to finance the succeeding farm activities or generate substantial return on investment. Specific
selection criteria were developed and followed in selecting crops and cropping patterns. Moreover, use
of climate smart agricultural practices has been advocated.

The Way Forward (Chapter 10)

Bangladesh has a finite agricultural land resource and which is declining at a faster rate due to
development activities and increased non-agricultural use. To feed 189.7 and 214.8 million people
nutritiously by 2030 and 2050 we need to make agriculture more productive, and resilient to biotic and
abiotic stresses and shocks in the face of climate change. Therefore, in order to produce more food
within a limited area, the most important options are i) increasing yield through improving genetic
potential of crops and make yield gap closer by using optimum management practices and ii)
increasing cropping intensity, producing three or more crops over the same piece of land annually is
another window which can be utilized to increase production. Oilseeds and pulses are the important
group of crops which are mostly grown in rabi season but area of those crops decreased due to
increasing cultivation of irrigated boro rice.

The cropping systems of Bangladesh are mostly rice based. The major cropping systems are rice-rice,
rice-wheat, rice-rice-rice, rice-maize, and rice-potato. The Recent development of short duration
varieties of rice, mustard, potato, pulses and jute, created opportunities to accommodate three or four
crops in sequence on the same field in a period of 12 months. Also stress tolerant varieties of rice,
wheat, pulses etc. have opened the window to accommodate three or more crops in a pattern even in
the stressed ecosystems.

CCDB XVI
We need climate-smart agriculture that increases productivity and incomes, boosts resilience, and
lessens emissions while potentially sequester carbon. Climate variability and change is the most
significant challenge to achieving sustainable food security and development. Bangladesh has
achieved food self-sufficiency and with the economic development of the country the next target is to
achieve nutritional security.

On the other hand, there is an emerging agreement that changes in temperature and precipitation can
have detrimental impacts on the food security of the most vulnerable people, in the absence of
adaptation. However, the combined impact of climate change on food security is very complex to
comprehend fully. It is also felt that climate change impacts on food security will not be evenly
distributed, among countries or regions. Vulnerability of the people and ecosystems will depend on the
ability to adapt to these changes. Climate change is inevitable and as a consequence, the magnitude
of abiotic stresses from floods, droughts, and salinity intrusion is very likely to increase which in turn will
have a negative impact on agriculture as a whole and on crop production in particular. Therefore,
developing abiotic stress resistance/tolerance crop varieties is important and effort should be made to
popularize the stress-tolerant varieties and ensuring availability and access to new varieties and
technologies.

The recommended cropping patterns with crops tolerant to various abiotic stresses and newer tolerant
varieties may help in making our crop agriculture more resilient to face the future challenges of climate
change.

To better understand climate change challenges and develop cost-effective solutions at the local level
and to fill knowledge gaps more research is needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of the
sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of natural and human systems.

I
XVI CCDB
 Table of Contents
Acknowledgements iii
Preface iv
Executive Summary vi
Table of Contents xvii
List of Figures xix
List of Tables xx
Abbreviations and Acronyms xxii
1. Setting the Scene 1
1.1. Introduction 2
1.2. Natural Resources 5
1.2.1. Soils 5
1.2.1.1. Floodplain Soils 5
1.2.1.2. Terrace Soils 6
1.2.1.3. Hill Soils 6
1.2.2. Water Resources 6
1.2.2.1. Groundwater and Surface Water 7
1.2.3. Climatic Resources 8
1.2.3.1. Temperature 8
1.2.3.2. Rainfall 8
1.2.4. Land Resources Utilization by Agriculture 11
1.2.5. Cropping Intensity 11
1.3. Major Crops 13
1.3.1. Irrigation 13
1.4. Objectives 15
1.5. Scope of the Study 15
2. Challenges and Vulnerabilities 16
2.1. Challenges 17
2.1.1. Growing Population 17
2.1.2. Food Systems and Requirements 17
2.1.3. Shrinking and Degrading Land Resources 20
2.1.4. Decreasing and Degrading Water Resources 21
2.1.5. Increasing Natural Hazards 22
2.1.6. Climate Change Vulnerability 23
2.1.7. Climate-Resilient Agriculture and Food Security 25
2.1.8. Climate Impacts on Food Security and Nutrition 25
3. Crops, Cropping Systems and Cropping Patterns 27
3.1. Cropping Seasons 28
3.1.1. Rice Cropping Seasons 28
3.2. Major Crops of Bangladesh 29
3.2.1. Cereal Crops 30
3.2.2. Pulses 30
3.2.3. Oilseeds 32
3.2.4. Other Crops 32
3.3. Cropping Systems and Cropping Patterns 34
3.3.1. Difference between Cropping Pattern and Cropping System 34
3.4. Factors Affecting Crops and Cropping Patterns 36
4. Research Design and Methods 38
4.1. Information Collection Methods 39
4.1.1. Key Informant Survey 39
4.2. Crop Simulation Modeling 39
4.3. Geographic Information System 39
4.4. Limitations of the Study 40
5. Major Abiotic Stresses 41
5.1. Salinity 42
5.1.1. Salt and Tidal Surge Affected Areas 44
5.1.2. Current Dominant Cropping Patterns in Salt and Tidal Surge Affected Areas 47
5.2. Drought 48
5.2.1. Types of Drought 49
5.2.2. Current Dominant Cropping Patterns in Drought Prone Areas 54
5.3. Floods 56
5.3.1. Types of Floods 57
5.3.2. Current Dominant Cropping Patterns in flood prone areas 59
6. AEZ Based Inventory of Current Cropping Patterns 61
6.1. Land Types 62
6.2. Cropping Patterns by AEZ 68
7. Development of New Cropping Systems and Patterns Based on Current
and Innovative Practices in other Countries Around the Tropic of Cancer 73
7.1. Countries and Regions Around the Tropic of Cancer 74
7.2. Cereal Systems of South Asia 74
7.2.1. Cambodian Agriculture 79
7.2.2. Thailand Agriculture 79
7.2.3. Myanmar Agriculture 80
7.2.4. Vietnam Agriculture 81
 7.2.5. China Agriculture 82
7.3. Conservation Agriculture Based Crop Management 82
7.3.1. Conservation Agriculture Based Technologies in South Asia 84
7.4. Climate Change 85
7.4.1. Temperature Trends 87
7.4.2. Rainfall Trends 87
7.4.3. Climate Change Impacts on Natural Systems and Crop Agriculture 88
7.4.4. Crop Modeling Studies 89
8. Coping with the Adverse Conditions 94
8.1. Adaptation 96
8.2. Adaptation Strategies 97
8.2.1. Use of Stress Tolerant Crop Varieties or Climate Ready Crops 98
8.2.1.1. Salinity Tolerance 98
8.2.1.2. Drought Tolerance 98
8.2.1.3. Submergence Tolerance 99
8.2.1.4. Adjusting Cropping Season 99
8.2.1.5. Conservation Agriculture (CA) 99
8.2.1.6. Crop Diversification 100
8.2.1.7. Local Weather Information 100
8.2.1.8. Improved Pest Management 101
8.2.1.9. Water Saving Technologies 101
8.3. Climate Smart Agriculture 102
9. Recommended Cropping Patterns for Saline,
Drought and Flood Prone Areas of Bangladesh 104
9.1. Key Criteria for Guiding the Selection of Cropping Patterns for Salt Affected
Areas of Bangladesh 106
9.2. Key Criteria for Guiding the Selection of Cropping Patterns for Drought Prone
Region of Bangladesh 107
9.3. Key Criteria for Guiding the Selection of Cropping Patterns for Flood Prone
Region of Bangladesh 109
10. The Way Forward 112
11. References 113
Annexes
Annex-1: Selected Crop Varieties and their Characteristics 127
Annex-2: List of Farmers Interviewed 136
Annex-3: List of Key Informants Interviewed 137
Annex-4: List of Experts Interviewed 140
 List of Figures
Figure 1. Agroecological Regions of Bangladesh 3
Figure 2. Distribution of Employed Person by Broad Economic Sectors 4
Figure 3. Withdrawal of Water by Sector and by Source 7
Figure 4. Variation of Highest Monthly Maximum Temperature 9
Figure 5. Rainfall Deviations from Long Term Mean 10
Figure 6. Land Utilization Statistics of Bangladesh by Administrative
Division (2014-15) 12
Figure 7. Change of Land Use in Hectare per Year from 1976 to 2010 20
Figure 8. Crop and Hazards Calendar of Bangladesh 24
Figure 9. Percentage under CO2 levels expected in 2050 26
Figure 10. Coverage and Production Trends of Cereals in Bangladesh 30
Figure 11. Trends of Area Coverage and Production of Pulses in Bangladesh 31
Figure 12. Trends of Area Coverage and Production of Oilseeds in Bangladesh 33
Figure 13. Distribution of Salinity Affected Areas 43
Figure 14. Accumulation of Salt on Soil Surface 44
Figure 15. Salinity Tolerance Levels and Yield Potential of Selected Crop 45
Figure 16. Interrelationships between Meteorological, Agricultural, Hydrological
and Socio-economic Drought 50
Figure 17. Drought Tolerance of Commonly Grown Crops 51
Figure 18. Drought Prone Areas of Bangladesh 54
Figure 19. Major Floods and Area Inundated, 1954 − 2014 56
Figure 20. Flood Prone Areas of Bangladesh 58
Figure 21. Number of Crops Cultivated in Different Cropping Systems under Rainfed
and Irrgated Conditions 64
Figure 22. Coverage of Major Rice Varieties by Districts in Bangladesh 78
Figure 23. Elements of Conservation Agriculture 83
Figure 24. The Three Pillars of Climate-Smart Agriculture 102

List of Tables
Table 1. Contribution of Agriculture to GDP by Subsectors 2
Table 2. Growth Rate of Agricultural GDP by Sectors/Subsectors 4
Table 3. Status of Water Resources of Bangladesh 7
Table 4. Land Utilization Statistics of Bangladesh (Area in Mha) 11
Table 5. Cropping Intensities by Regions 12
Table 6. Percentage of Land Area Planted to Different Crops 13
Table 7. Number of Instrument, Irrigated Area and Percent Coverage under
Different Means 14
Table 8. Irrigated Area and Percentage Coverage under Different Crops 2014-15 14
Table 9. Dietary Pattern in Bangladesh Compared to the Desirable Dietary Pattern 19
Table 10. Area, Yield and Production of Cereal Crops (Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15) 31
Table 11. Area, yield and Production of Pulses (Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15) 32
Table 12. Area, Yield and Production of Oilseeds (Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15) 33
Table 13. Area, Yield and Production of Other Crops (Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15) 34
Table 14. Soil Salinity Affected Districts by Areal Extent (ha) and by Degrees of Salinity 46
Table 15. The Top−ten Cropping Patterns under Different Salinity Class 47
Table 16. Major Cropping Pattern in Salinity Affected Areas under Rainfed and
Irrigated Conditions 48
Table 17. Major Cropping Pattern in Salinity Affected Areas of Bangladesh 48
Table 18. Summary of Drought Severity Areas in Bangladesh by Crop Season (in Mha) 52
Table 19. Most Vulnerable Hotspots Considering Drought (Rank 1 to 20) 52
Table 20. Top-ten Drought Prone Districts by Areal Extent and by Severity 53
Table 21. Top-ten Cropping Patterns under Different Drought Classes 55
Table 22. Major Cropping Pattern in Drought Prone Areas of Bangladesh 55
Table 23. Top−ten Flood Prone Districts by Areal Extent and by Different Type of Flood 59
Table 24. Top-ten Cropping Patterns Under Different Flood Types and Classes 59
Table 25. Major Cropping Pattern in Flood Prone Areas 60
Table 26. Classification of Land Type 62
Table 27. Distribution of Land Types in Different Agroecological Regions of Bangladesh 65
Table 28. Top Three Types of Crop Rotation, by AEZ 68
Table 29. Some Important Cropping Patterns in Bangladesh 69
Table 30. An Inventory of Cropping Patterns Practiced in Different Agroecological
Regions of Bangladesh 71
Table 31. Area (Mha) Under Major Cropping Systems in Four South Asian Countries 75
Table 32. Doninant Varieties by Area and Seasons in Bangladesh and in West Bengal, India 76
Table 33. Percent of MV Rice Area by Generation and Season 77
Table 34. Concentration of Rice Varieties at the Regional Level in Aman and
Boro/Aus Seasons 77
Table 35. Dynamism of Production Sariables Changing Scenario 83
Table 36. Recommended Cropping Patterns for the Salt Affected Areas 106
Table 37. Recommended Cropping Patterns for the Drought Prone Region 108
Table 38. Recommended Cropping Patterns for the Flood Prone Areas 109
 Abbreviations and Acronyms

I
XXII CCDB
k
k

I
CCDB XXIII
 I
XXIV CCDB
1 Setting
the Scene

I
CCDB XXV
1. Setting the Scene
1.1. Introduction
Bangladesh, a South Asian developing country on the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal surrounded
by India on the east, north and south, with a small common border with Myanmar in the south-east.
Most part of the country lies in Ganga-Brahmaputra river deltaic floodplain. Topographically, it is
practically monotonously flat with elevation seldom exceeding ten meters above mean sea level. The
flatness of the topography is broken in the southeast by the Chittagong Hill Tracts region and by the
hills of the northeast part of the country. Floodplains and piedmont plains occupy almost 80 percent of
the land area. Slightly uplifted fault blocks or terrace occupy about eight percent while hills occupy
about 12 percent of the land (Brammer, et al., 1988).

The country occupies an area of 147,570 km2 or about 14.76 Mha (million hectares) lying astride the
Tropic of Cancer between latitudes 20° 25' - 26° 38' N and longitudes 88° 01' - 92° 40' E. The country
is low-lying riverine land traversed by the many branches and tributaries of the Ganges and
Brahmaputra rivers. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into eight Divisions. They are Dhaka,
Khulna, Chittagong, Rajshahi, Barisal, Sylhet and Mymensingh. On the basis of agroecological
classification, the country is divided into 30 regions (Figure 1).

Agriculture is the most important producing sector of the Bangladesh economy since it comprises about
16% of the country's GDP, employs more than 45% of the total labor force directly and supports 75%
of the country’s population (MoF, 2016). The performance of this sector has contributed to the
macroeconomic objectives of the government through employment generation and human resources
development which in turn, had a positive impact on poverty alleviation and food security of the country.
Food security remains the key objective of the government and in achieving this a significant increase
has been made in food grain and vegetable production. Remarkable progress has been also made in
fisheries subsector and some in livestock subsector, particularly in poultry. Table 1 shows the
contribution of subsectors to agricultural GDP at the constant price. Although, the share of agriculture
sector in the GDP is declining in relative term, but in absolute term, the amount has increased
substantially.

Table 1. Contribution of Agriculture to GDP by Subsectors

Percentage of GDP at Constant Prices
Subsector (Base Year: 2005-06)
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Crops & horticulture 10.50 10.01 9.49 9.28 8.87
Animal framings 1.98 1.90 1.84 1.78 1.73
Forest and related services 1.79 1.78 1.76 1.74 1.72
Fishing 3.73 3.68 3.68 3.69 3.69
Total 18.00 15.59 16.77 16.49 16.01
Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2015. (MoF, 2016)

I
02 CCDB
 88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

AGROECOLOGICAL ZONES
BANGLADESH

26°0'0"N
26°0'0"N

1 3
3
3
Rangpur

25 7
27 20 10 0 20 40 60 80
Kilometers

INDIA
22

25°0'0"N
8
25°0'0"N

20
25 25 3 9
25 9 21
26
11 3
Mymensingh 21
20

Sylhet
Rajshahi 7
9
9
5 4 20
4 8
11 7 19
8 22
28 28 19
12

24°0'0"N
24°0'0"N

8 Dhaka 9

12
INDIA
19
12 16
11 44
INDIA 12 19
10
Khulna 14
23

23°0'0"N
17
23°0'0"N

12 19 29
14
14
18
Chittagong

13
13 Barisal 18
13 13 18
13 13
13 23 44
18
13 13

22°0'0"N
22°0'0"N

29

B A Y O F B ENGAL
Legend
1 Old Himalayan Piedmont Plain 13 Ganges Tidal Floodplain 25 Level Barind Tract 44
2 Active Tista Floodplain 14 Gopalganj-Khulna Bils 26 High Barind Tract
3 Tista Meander Floodplain 15 Arial Bil 27 North-Eastern Barind Tract
MYANMAR

4 Karatoya-Bangali Floodplain 16 Middle Meghna River Floodplain 28 Madhupur Tract

21°0'0"N
21°0'0"N

5 Lower Atrai Basin 17 Lower Meghna River Floodplain 29 Northern and Eastern Hills
6 Lower Purnabhaba Floodplain 18 Young Meghna Estuarine Floodplain 30 Akhaura Terrace
7 Active Brahmaputra-Jamuna Floodplain 19 Old Meghna Estuarine Floodplain Division Boundary
8 Young Brahmaputra-Jamuna Floodplain 20 Eastern Surma-Kusiyara Floodplain Urban
9 Old Brahmaputra Floodplain 21 Sylhet Basin Rivers
10 Active Ganges Floodplain 22 Northern and Eastern Piedmont Plain Kaptai Lake

11 High Ganges River Floodplain 23 Chittagong Coastal Plain Waterbodies

12 Low Ganges River Floodplain 24 St. Martin's Coral Island Reserved Forest

88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

Figure 1. Agroecological Regions of Bangladesh

Source: Brammer, et al., 1988

CCDB 03 I
 According to the findings of the Labor Force Survey of 2013
the largest share of all employed person (36.8%) are skilled
Industry agriculture workers. More than 18.0% are employed as Craft
21% and Related Trades Workers, followed by 16.5% as Service
Agriculture
45%
and Sales Workers. About 14.0% of the labor force is
Services
involved in elementary occupations. In rural areas, skilled
34% agriculture workers comprised the largest share of the
employed population, at 45.7%, of which 15.6% are females.
While, in the urban areas, the largest share by far, at 25.9
percent, of the employed population was in services and
Figure 2. Distribution of Employed sales; among them, 16.2 percent were female and 84.8
Person by Broad Economic Sectors percent male. The distribution of employed person by broad
Source: Report on Labour Force Survey, BBS, 2013
economic sectors is presented in Figure 2.

In the last five years, the economy of the country has been growing at an average annual rate of 6.32%
with a peak of 6.55% in FY2014-15. Bangladesh can sustain this growth rate over the long run given
various factors that affect the economic growth rate particularly those impacting on natural and physical
capital do not recur frequently. Further, the economy should not experience external shocks such as a
sharp increase in energy price, decline in export demand and price and a sharp decline in remittance.
The agricultural GDP growth rates during FY2010-11 to FY2014-15 by sectors/subsectors at constant
prices (base year: 2005-06) is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Growth Rate of Agricultural GDP by Sectors/Subsectors

Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2015. (MoF, 2016)

To practice agriculture means to use natural resources to "produce commodities which maintain life,
including food, fiber, forest products, horticultural crops, and their related services. (Definition of
Agriculture. State of Maine)." So the potential of agricultural production and development by and large
depends on the natural resource base of a country and the sustainability depends on how these
resources are used and managed. In the following sections, the important natural resources of
Bangladesh have been described.

I
04 CCDB
1.2. Natural Resources

1.2.1. Soils
The reconnaissance soil survey carried out between 1963 and 1975 identified and described a total of
483 soil series in Bangladesh. The soil units represented on the Agro-ecological Regions map are
associations of General Soil Types (GST). A GST is a non-technical classification system, intended to
make distinctions which appear significant for understanding the formation, distribution and use of
these soils (FAO, 1971). A group of soils which are broadly similar in appearance and characteristics
as their development occurred under similar environmental factors such as physiography, climate and
drainage. Twenty-one General Soil Types are recognized in the country, which are differentiated into
the following three physiographic groups:

1.2.1.1. Floodplain Soils

The floodplain soils are formed in alluvial sediments ranging from a few months to several thousand
years in age. These soils occupy 80% of the country’s land area. There is a general pattern of sandy or
loamy soils on the higher parts of floodplain ridges grading into clays in adjoining basins. The relative
proportions of sandy, loamy and clayey soils vary between physiographic units and also between soil
associations within physiographic units. Except the highland, all soils are seasonally inundated, mainly
by rainwater ponding and by muddy water close to river channels and near hill areas.

Permeability of the floodplain soils is moderate or rapid in loamy ridge soils which are not puddled for
transplanting paddy; also in cracking clays on the Ganges River Floodplain. It is slow in other basin
clays and in most loamy soils which are puddled for transplanting paddy and which have a ploughpan.
Moisture holding capacity is high in deep silt loams, especially on the Tista Meander Floodplain and the
Old Meghna Estuarine Floodplain. It is moderate in most other loamy soils, and is low in sandy ridge
soils, basin clays and most soils that are puddled for transplanted paddy cultivation. Capillary rise of
moisture keeps some basin soils and deep silty soils moist for most part of the dry season.

Organic matter contents of the floodplain soils generally are low in recent alluvium (except near the
eastern hills) and in most ridge soils. They are moderate (locally high) in basin soils and in Black Terai
Soils. Top layers of these soils are mainly are acidic (when not submerged) except in some calcareous
Ganges and Lower Meghna Floodplain soils and in recent alluvium. During the dry season the coastal
parts of tidal and estuarine floodplains become saline to varying degrees. Some patches of toxic Acid
Sulphate Soils also occur in the southwestern and southeastern coasts.

Most soils either are naturally fertile or have the capacity to respond satisfactorily to normal applications
of fertilizers/manures. The agricultural potential of floodplain soils is determined as much by hydrology -
depth and duration of seasonal inundation and risk of flood damage - as it is by inherent soil properties.
Availability of water for irrigation has become increasingly important in determining cropping patterns,
productivity and potential in recent years.
I
CCDB 05
1.2.1.2. Terrace Soils
Terrace soils covering only eight percent of the country’s land area comprise a wide range of soils
formed over the Madhupur Clay. Differences in soils are due to differences in drainage and in the depth
and degree of weathering. These soils are diverse, ranging from deep, reddish brown friable well
drained clay loams to grey, poorly drained silty top soils over clay on level highlands. Terrace soils are
extensive on the Barind Tract and locally on the Madhupur Tract. They are strongly acid and have low
organic matter contents and moisture-holding capacities. Deep and shallow soils occur, both have grey
silty upper layers grading into clayey lower layers, and most have a strongly puddled topsoil and a
ploughpan.

Within terrace areas valley soils occur that range from deep, grey silts in shallow valleys to dark grey,
very strongly acidic, and heavy clays in broader in deep valleys. Usually these soils are with low natural
fertility. Therefore, the agricultural potential of deep red soils, deep and shallow grey soils, and most
valley soils is moderate; main requirements are irrigation and adequate fertilizer use. The agricultural
potential of shallow red and brown soils is low.

1.2.1.3. Hill Soils

These soils include a wide range of soils formed over consolidated and unconsolidated sandstones,
siltstones and shales which underlie the Northern and Eastern Hills. Most of the hill soils are deep,
excessively or well drained, strong brown or yellow-brown in color, friable, sandy loams to clay loams.
Permeability of these soils is generally rapid and moisture-holding capacity low. Organic matter contents
are moderate or high under old forest or tree covers but generally are low in soils repeatedly used for
shifting (jhum) cultivation. Almost all soils are strongly to extremely acidic, and have a low
nutrient-holding capacity. The shallow soils over hard rock occur locally. Predominantly these soil occur
in steep or very steep slopes. Agricultural potential is severely limited because of steep slopes, heavy
monsoon rainfall and the associated erosion hazard. Most soils and slopes are unsuitable for bench
terracing. Forestry and horticulture are the most appropriate forms of land use.

1.2.2. Water Resources

The major watersheds of the south Asia region are the Brahmaputra and the Ganges in Bangladesh,
the Brahmaputra in Bhutan, the Brahmaputra and the Ganges the Godavari, the Indus, the Mahanadi
and the Narmada in India, in Nepal the Ganges, and the Indus in Pakistan. The hydrological cycle of
Bangladesh is influenced very much by the presence of the Himalayas in the north and the Bay of
Bengal in the south.

The flow of river water in the driest month in Bangladesh represents only 18 percent of the annual
average. FAO (1999) reported that the withdrawals from the Ganges River, in the upstream country
(India) affects significantly the volumes of water available to the downstream country (Bangladesh).

I
06 CCDB
1.2.2.1. Groundwater and Surface Water
The total water withdrawal in 2008 was estimated at 35.87 km3, the sectoral withdrawal is dominated
by agriculture, of which 88% (31.50 km3) was for agriculture, 10.04% (60 km3) for municipalities and
2.15% (0.77 km3) for industries approximately 79.40% (28.48 km3) of the total water withdrawal, came
from groundwater and 20.60% (7.39 km3) from surface water (Figure 3).

The value of per capita total renewable water resources (TRWR) for Bangladesh is 7621 m3/inhabi-
tant/year is hardly meaningful, especially as only a small part of these natural resources is exploitable
in the country. The country rely heavily on external water resources and would fall under the threshold
of 1000 m3/inhabitant/year. If Bangladesh had to rely only on its internal resources then less than 652.2
m3/inhabitant/year is available. In an average year, 1000 m3 of water per inhabitant can be considered
as a minimum to sustain life and ensure agricultural production in countries within a climate
system/ecosystem climates that require irrigation for agriculture (Table 3).

Withdrawal of water by sector Withdrawal of water by source

Surface water
Agriculture Municipalities Groundwater Surface water
20.60%
Agriculture 10.03% Groundwater 20.60%
87.82%
87.82% 79.40%
79.40%

Industries
2.15%

Total volume of water 35.87 km3 in 2008

http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/Profile_segments/BGD-WU_eng.stm

Figure 3. Withdrawal of Water by Sector and by Source

Table 3. Status of Water Resources of Bangladesh

Source: FAO, 2016

1Internal Renewable Water Resources (IRWR)

2Total Renewable Water Resources (TRWR)

CCDB 07 I
1.2.3. Climatic Resources
The climate of Bangladesh is by and large sub-tropical in the north to hot and humid in the south.
During summer (June to October) Southwest monsoon influences the climate. While throughout winter
months (November to March) the climate is controlled by the northeast monsoon. The summer is hot
and humid, and the winter is mild.

1.2.3.1. Temperature
In Bangladesh, temperatures are highest in April and May, decrease slightly during the monsoon and
rise slightly in September or October when the rain begins to diminish. Mean daily maximum and
minimum temperatures, recorded over the period 1984-2013, ranges from 34 to 38 and 10-15 °C,
respectively. During this period, maximum temperature ≥40 °C was recorded in Rajshahi, Ishurdi, and
Jessore in 141, 95 and 62 instances respectively during April and May. The highest temperature of 44.0
°C was recorded on 21 April 1989 at Bogra. During the same period, the highest number of days with
minimum temperature ≤5 °C was recorded in Ishurdi, Sreemangal and Dinajpur in 19, 14 and 9
instances respectively in the month of January. The lowest temperature recorded was 3.0 °C recorded
on January 10, 2013, at Sayedpur. Winter in Bangladesh is coolest from November to February when
the average minimum and maximum daily temperatures are about 9.7 and 26.6 °C respectively.

Figures 4 summarizes the long-term highest monthly average temperature recorded in April-May and
the lowest monthly average maximum temperature recorded in January. In the northwestern regions of
Dinajpur, Rajshahi, and Iswardi the intra-monthly variations in temperature were higher than those of
Dhaka, Sylhet, and Faridpur. Again higher variations were noted in the months of February, March, April
and May.

1.2.3.2. Rainfall
Rains start in March-April and end in October, averaging 1,500 mm per year in drier northwestern
regions and 5,000 mm per year in northeastern wetter regions of Bangladesh. These values are not
alarming for a nation if the distribution is even throughout the year. It becomes hazardous when the
distribution is erratic and uneven. Southwest monsoon influences the climate during June to October,
and during the winter the climate is controlled by the northeast monsoon from November to March.
More than 71% of the rainfall occurs during (June to September) monsoon. Rainfall deviations from the
long-term mean are presented in Figure 5. Other than Chittagong and Teknaf stations, the rest stations
showed a decreasing trend in the total amount of annual rainfall.

I
08 CCDB
 Maximum Temperture (°C) Maximum Temperture (°C) Maximum Temperture (°C)

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan Jan Jan
Feb Feb Feb
Mar Mar Mar
Apr Apr Apr
May May May
June June June
July July July

DHAKA
DINAJPUR

KHULNA
Aug Aug Aug
Sep Sep Sep
Oct Oct Oct
Nov Nov Nov
Dec Dec Dec

Maximum Temperture (°C) Maximum Temperture (°C) Maximum Temperture (°C)

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50

Jan Jan Jan

Feb Feb Feb
Mar Mar Mar
Apr Apr Apr
May May May
June June June
July July July
SYLHET
RAJSHAHI

BARISAL
Aug Aug Aug
Sep Sep Sep
Oct Oct Oct
Nov Nov Nov
Dec Dec Dec

Maximum Temperture (°C) Maximum Temperture (°C) Maximum Temperture (°C)

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50

Jan Jan Jan

Feb Feb Feb
Mar Mar Mar

Data Source: Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD, 1984-2013)

Apr Apr Apr

Figure 4. Variation of Highest Monthly Maximum Temperature

May May May
June June June
ISHWARDI

FARIDPUR

July July July

Aug
CHITTAGONG

Aug Aug
Sep Sep Sep
Oct Oct Oct

I
Nov Nov Nov
Dec Dec Dec

CCDB 09
 BARISAL BOGRA
80 80
(Annual mean rainfall 2082 mm) (Annual mean rainfall 1775 mm)
60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0

-20 -20

-40 -40

-60 -60
1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12
Year Year

CHITTAGONG DINAJPUR
60 80
(Annual mean rainfall 2953 mm) (Annual mean rainfall 2006 mm)
40 60

40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20

-40 -40

-60 -60
1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12
Year Year

DHAKA KHULNA
60 80
(Annual mean rainfall 2979 mm) (Annual mean rainfall 1820 mm)
50
60
40
30 40
20
10 20
0 0
-10
-20 -20
-30
-40
-40
-50 -60
1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12
Year Year

RANGPUR RAJSHAHI
80 50
(Annual mean rainfall 2036 mm) (Annual mean rainfall 1432 mm)
40
60
30
40 20

20 10
0
0 -10
-20 -20
-30
-40
-40
-60 -50
1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12
Year Year

TANGAIL TEKNAF
60 30
(Annual mean rainfall 1874 mm) (Annual mean rainfall 3954 mm)
50
40 20
30
20 10

10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-30 -20
-40
-50 -30
1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 1984 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12
Year Year

Figure 5. Rainfall Deviations from Long Term Mean

Data Source: Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD, 1984-2013)

I
10 CCDB
1.2.4. Land Resources Utilization by Agriculture
The total area of the country is about 14.76 Mha out of which land area comprises 13.40 Mha the rest
area is under water bodies. About 3.74 Mha (25.5% of total area) is not available for agriculture. This
land is used for non-agricultural purposes. Currently, the net cropped area (NCA) is 7.93 Mha. Although
the NCA did not change much over the period from 2010-2011 to 2014-2015, the gross cropped area
(GCA) increased from 14.944 Mha in 2010-11 to 15.206 Mha in 2014-2015. This increase is attributed
to the increase in triple, and quadruple cropped areas and a decrease in single cropped area. During the
period from 2003-04 to 2014-15 the NCA decreased at an average annual rate of 0.148% which is more
than 11,738 hectares per year. Whereas, the gross cropped area (GCA) increased at an average annual
rate of 0.748% amounting to 112,397 hectares per year. The total arable land area is 8.55 Mha, of which
27% is single cropped, 43.98% double cropped, 20.00% triple cropped, and 0.23% quadruple cropped
area. Currently, the culturable waste and the fallow areas are 0.21 Mha and 0.624 Mha which is 1.40%
and 4.2% of the total land area of the country respectively (Table 4).
Table 4. Land Utilization Statistics of Bangladesh (Area in Mha)

Source: BBS, 2016

Figure 6 shows Division-wise cropping frequency. Other than Barisal and Sylhet Divisions, the
dominant land use is double cropping in rest of the six Divisions. The dominant land use in Barisal and
Sylhet is single cropping. Highest triple cropped areas are in Rajshahi followed by Khulna, and
Rangpur Divisions.

1.2.5. Cropping Intensity

Shrinking and degrading land resources is one of the biggest challenges for Bangladesh. Every year
agricultural land is encroached and is being used for non-agricultural purposes. There is very little or
no scope for lateral expansion of agriculture land. The average cropping intensity of the country for the
period from 2010-11 to 2014-15 revolved around 190-192%. The highest cropping intensity of 271%
was recorded in Kushtia region followed by Bogra (241%). The lowest cropping intensity was found in
Khulna region (132%) followed by Bandarban and Rangamati regions (Table 5). One important option
for increasing cropped area is by increasing cropping intensity. Hossain et al., (2011) and Mondal, et
al., (2015) stated that for sustainable crop production in Bangladesh improvement of cropping intensity
CCDB 11I
in rice based cropping system is increasingly important in national issues such as food security, poverty
alleviation, and the creation of job opportunity.
1600

1400

1200
Area (000’ Hectares)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Mymenshingh Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet
Divisions
Current fallow area Single cropped area Double cropped area Tripple cropped area Quardruple cropped area

Figure 6. Land Utilization Statistics of Bangladesh by Administrative Division (2014-15)

Data source: BBS, 2016
Table 5. Cropping Intensities by Regions

Data source: BBS, 2016

12 CCDB I
1.3. Major Crops
The endowed climate of Bangladesh favors cultivation of a wide range of crops both tropical and
temperate ones, the food, forage, fiber and miscellaneous crops. The food crops contribute the bulk of
food for the population. The major types of food crops are cereals, pulses, oil crops, tubers, roots,
vegetables, fruits, tree nuts, sweeteners, and spices. Fiber crops include jute, cotton, hemp, and kenaf;
but Jute is the dominant one. Miscellaneous crops include tea, tobacco, ornamental flowers, medicinal
plants, etc., but other than tea, the rest of the crops occupy little over one percent of the gross cropped
land (Table 6). Cultivation of forage crops (mostly grasses) is limited in the country.

Table 6. Percentage of Land Area Planted to Different Crops

(Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15)

Source: BBS, 2016

1.3.1. Irrigation
Various minor irrigation technologies are used in the country, including low lift pumps (LLP), shallow
tubewells (STW), deep tubewell (DTW) and deep set shallow tubewells (DSSTW) and some manually
operated pumps. Shallow tubewells account for about 62.4% of the total minor irrigation command
area. Low lift pumps, DTWs and traditional irrigation devices contribute about 16.8, 16.2, and 4.4% of
CCDB 13I
the total minor irrigation command area respectively. After privatization and with the abolishment of
restrictive measures of sinking tubewells, STW sales increased at an annual rate of 14% growing from
159.0 thousand in 1987 to 349.0 thousand in 1993 (BBS, 1995). Currently, the number of LLP, STW
and DTW stand at 167.17, 1,549.7 and 36.6 thousand respectively (Table 7).
Table 7. Number of Instrument, Irrigated Area and Percent Coverage under Different Means 2014-15

Data source: BBS, 2016

The total irrigated area of the country is about 7.41 Mha of which the boro rice occupies 61.63%, aman
12.34%, wheat, potato and vegetables around 5.0% and about 8.74% by other crops. The irrigated
area under sugarcane and cotton is less than 1.0% (Table 8).
Table 8. Irrigated Area and Percentage Coverage under Different Crops 2014-15

Data source: BBS, 2016

In Bangladesh, population increase coupled with increasing consumption resulting from rising incomes will
substantially increase the demand for food. With increased food production, available water will decrease
and increasingly the precious commodity will be competed for by multiple users, resulting in conflicts. The
looming scarcity of fresh water resources for irrigated agriculture leaves little choice but to increase water
productivity through using water smart technologies or growing less water demanding crops.

Besides these economic shocks and limited resource base for agriculture, there are many challenges
that make Bangladesh vulnerable to environmental hazards. Because of its geographic setting, the
country is exposed to vulnerabilities such as frequent floods, droughts, cyclones, and storm surges that
damage life, property, and agricultural production. Moreover, there are several other challenges in the
road of achieving sustainable food security. The major ones are described in Chapter 2.

I
14 CCDB
The challenges mentioned earlier are not all but some of the major ones. Among which, some are
anthropogenic and some are natural. Some of them can be coped through adaptation and innovative
ideas while some with scientific research. For achieving sustainable food security these challenges
have to be addressed to overcome their negative impacts. Therefore, there is no alternative to
demand-driven research in these arenas.

1.4. Objectives
The main objective of the assignment is identification and modeling of suitable cropping systems/
pattern for saline, drought and flood prone areas of Bangladesh through review of past and present
researches done by different research organizations. The specific objectives are:
• To prepare an inventory and summary of cropping patterns practiced in different agroecological
zones of Bangladesh;
• To identify and analyze suitable systems cropping and cropping patterns particularly for salinity,
drought and flood prone areas based on available references;
• To portrait and analyze the past researches done on crop modeling in Bangladesh; and
• To recommend few new and innovative cropping patterns for experimentation in salinity, drought
and flood conditions.

1.5. Scope of the Study

Through this study, efforts were made to address the following:
Review of past and present research on cropping pattern and crop modeling
An extensive literature review was conducted to synthesize outcomes of research done in Bangladesh
on cropping systems and patterns by different research organizations and individual researchers. The
study also tried to synthesize all relevant research work and projects done in Bangladesh on crop
modeling. The impacts of different climate change scenarios on crop sector of Bangladesh has been
compiled through a review of available literature. Additionally, an inventory of current cropping patterns
in different agroecological regions of Bangladesh has also been compiled.

Identification of suitable cropping patterns for stress situations

Based on the review of past and present research, responses of different informants/stakeholders
(including the farmers), and the field level experience of the author efforts were made to identify
suitable cropping patterns for climate vulnerable (salinity, drought, and flood-prone) areas of
Bangladesh.

Development of new cropping patterns in other countries around tropic of cancer

This study also looked into research activities done in other countries having climate analog conditions
like Bangladesh. The study reviewed climate change and cropping pattern research done in other
countries or region around tropic of cancer (e.g., West Bengal, Bihar, Northern Thailand, North
Vietnam, and South China). Despite there are lots of differences in socioeconomic conditions, policy,
hydrology, etc. among these countries. After validating differences and appreciating commons, some
cropping systems and cropping patterns have been suggested for salinity, drought and flood prone
areas of Bangladesh.
CCDB 15 I
 2 Challenges
and Vulnerabilities

I
40 CCDB
2. Challenges and Vulnerabilities
2.1. Challenges
Bangladesh faces a daunting challenge to feed its growing population from an increasingly diminishing
and degrading natural resource base for agriculture. The demand for food and nutrition in the country
will substantially increase in future, especially, non-rice food. The food demand will be more of protein
from pulses and oilseeds and from meat, milk, and eggs. There are several challenges on the road to
achieving sustainable food security. The major ones are:

2.1.1. Growing Population

Bangladesh is a densely populated country in South Asia. According to the census of 2011, the total
population was 149,772,364 (As on 15 March 2011) and currently (28 May 2016, BBS Website), the
estimated population stands at over 160.7 million. It is likely to be 189.70, 204.99 and 214.79 million in
2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (Islam et al., 2014), and according to the projection made by the
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (DESA, 2015) the
population would be about 186.46, 202.21 and 169.54 million in 2030 and 2050, 2100 respectively. This
population size makes Bangladesh the 9th most populous country in the world where 1089.39 number
of people live in per square kilometer of land.

Population and income growth are the major drivers for agriculture in a country like Bangladesh. Due
to population pressure, change in development needs and social-economic conditions, climatic
variability, the land use pattern of Bangladesh is changing very rapidly. Because of the huge demand,
a very high intensity of land and resources utilization is occurring. Particularly in terms of agriculture,
the cropping intensity has gone up. To keep pace with the population growth, shrinking land resource
base, and the threat of climate change, the food production needs to be increased. Sustainable growth
and development of the agricultural sector is the vital issue to the government for meeting the future
challenge of increased production for food and nutrient security.

2.1.2. Food Systems and Requirements

Food and nutrition security depends not only on food production and consumption but also on the
policies that affect food systems, from farm to table. A food system can be defined as the specific
combination of social and natural components that leads to the potential satisfaction of nutrition for a
given individual or household through their combination of livelihood activities based on assets and
incomes. A food system includes four sub-systems i.e., Production, Exchange, Distribution, and
Consumption (Cannon, 2002).

Management of population growth, food losses and waste are important for reducing the pressure on
agricultural land, water and natural ecosystems, in addition to increases in agricultural productivity and
efficiency and measures to protect natural resources from unsustainable exploitation, degradation or
pollution (Foley et al., 2011; Smith, 2013; and Wirsenius et al., 2010). Changes to transform agriculture

CCDB 17I
and food systems are needed in all countries, but the priorities may differ. The United Nations has
launched 17 new sustainable development goals (SDGs) to guide actions of the member countries for
next 15 years ending in 2030. Bangladesh as a member of the UN has adopted a new sustainable
development agenda. Besides other goals, the government is keen to address Goal 1 and 2. Goal 1 is
to End poverty in all its forms everywhere and Goal 2, End hunger, achieve food security and improved
nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture. Eradicating poverty and hunger and accelerating rural
development are the highest priorities in countries like Bangladesh. Both require broad-based
agricultural productivity gains.

Bangladesh is a country of festivals and food is an integral part of these occasions. The culture of the
country is rich with a vast variety of foods. The festive cuisines consist of rice, curry of fish or meat in a
wonderful blend of spices, and sweets. Traditionally, rice and fish are the staple food of Bangladeshi
people. Currently, nearly two-thirds of the daily diet consists of rice. A typical Bangladeshi meal is
consists of rice along with some vegetables, some amount of pulses and small quantities of fish or meat
or both. However, the dietary intake of oil and fat is meager. With respect to nutrition, a typical rural diet
in Bangladesh is not well balanced.

The national food intake pattern in Bangladesh is dominated by cereals contributing about 75% of total
dietary energy as against the internationally accepted value 54-55% for developing countries
(WHO/FAO, 2003; UNU/WHO/FAO, 2004; Murshid et al., 2008; Yusuf et al., 2008). Vegetables
comprise one-fifth of total diet for rural people. A typical rural diet accounts for less than 10% foods rich
in protein and micronutrients. Intake of vegetables and fruits has increased considerably. It is still very
low, although their consumption is vital for a diversified and nutritious diet (HIES 2005, BBS, 2007). The
high intake of cereal-based food and low intake of micronutrient-rich foods results in an imbalanced diet
and causes different health disorders.

It is evident from the Table 9 that the diet is still over-loaded with cereals but highly deficient in oil and
pulses. In fact, part of the dietary protein is consumed in meeting the calorie gap, and as a
consequence, many consumers suffer from deficiencies of both energy and protein.

At national level, the per capita per day intake of food items has increased by about 4.3 percent, i.e.;
from 947.8 g in 2005 to 990.0 g in 2010. In one hand, the average quantity of rice intake decreased by
about 5.4 percent to 416.01 g in 2010 from 439.64 g in 2005. On the other hand, consumption of wheat
increased to 26.09 g in 2010 from 12.08 g in 2005 registering 115.98% increase. Per capita per day
intake of potato increased to 70.52 g in 2010 from 63.30 g in 2005. Consumption of vegetables, fruits,
and meat also increased in 2010 relative to 2005. During the period 2005 to 2010, per capita per day
intake of pulses and milk and milk products did not change much and remained 51.7 g and 13.3 g lower
than the desirable level (Table 9).

The overall per capita calorie intake per day increased from 2238.5 kcal in 2005 to 2318.3 kcal in 2010,
during this period the increase was about 3.56%. At national level per capita per day protein intake has

I
18 CCDB
increased to 66.26 g per capita per day in 2010 from 62.52 g per capita per day in 2005. Per capita per
day protein intake has increased in 2010 by 3.74 g as compared to that of 2005 and only 3.04 g lower than
the desirable level. The consumption of rice is 103 g (33%) more than the desirable level. Table 9 also
reveals that the food grain requirement especially rice is likely to decrease while wheat and maize
requirement will increase. Requirements of other non-cereal food items like fish, meat and fruits will
increase. The major challenges are to increase food production from dwindling biophysical resource base.

Table 9. Dietary Pattern in Bangladesh Compared to the Desirable Dietary Pattern

*** As proposed by Yusuf and Islam (2005), to be achieved in phases by 2015. Thereafter, modification in the composition will
be made to make the diet more balanced by providing more of oils and fats and less of the cereals.

CCDB 19 I
2.1.3. Shrinking and Degrading Land Resources
Agriculture is the most important user of land resources of the country which is around 59% or 8.763
Mha of the total land area. Out which there is a huge area (0.175 Mha about 1.4%) is treated as
culturable waste and most of these lands remain barren, with very limited vegetation. About 24% (3.619
Mha) of the total land is not available for cultivation. These lands are occupied by scattered
homesteads, urban centers, industries, educational institutions, inhabited lands and other
non-agricultural purposes. Nearly 17% (2.755 Mha) of land is allocated to the forest area. At the time of
independence in 1971 the net cropped area (NCA) of the country was 8.245 Mha and reached 8.857
Mha in 1987 with a cropping intensity of 150.73%. Although the NCA declined to 7.924 Mha in 2014-15,
the gross cropped area increased to 15.206 Mha with a cropping intensity of 191%.

Hasan et al., (2013) reported that the annual loss of cropland during 1976-2000 was 13,413 ha and
which continued during 2000-2010 with an annual loss of 68,760 ha. Considering cropland irrespective
of the percentage of the total landmass of the country, the total land under cropland in 1976 was 9.761
Mha which reduced to 9.439 Mha in 2000, i.e., an annual loss of about 0.137%. This cropland further
decreased to 8.752 Mha in 2010, i.e., the annual loss of cropland during 2000 to 2010 was 0.728%.
This indicated that agricultural lands were transformed for other uses at higher rates between 2000 and
2010. The annual agricultural land loss estimated at 68,700 ha, where land was transformed to rural
settlements, urban areas, industries, and aquaculture (Figure 7).

Accreted land 8,116

Urban & Industry 1,789
Rural Settlement 35,802
Salt pan 713
-697 Tea Estate
Aquaculture 5,149
Beel/Haor 316
Lake 27
River 802
-323 Mangrove
-9,435 Forest
-29,692 Agriculture land
-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
Hectare

Figure 7. Change of Land Use in Hectare per Year from 1976 to 2010
Source: Hasan et. al., 2013

I
20 CCDB
The carrying capacity of a land is defined as the number of people that a unit area of land can support
at a given technological level and system of land use. Allan (1949) defined the carrying capacity of land
as "the maximum number of people that a given land will maintain in perpetuity under a given system
of usage without land degradation setting in." The carrying capacity of land in terms of human biomass
can be the standard employed to measure the agricultural efficiency in oriental (from, or characteristic
of Asia, especially East Asia) society, since the major share of agricultural land is occupied by food
crops.

Currently, the total land area of the country is 14.757 Mha and of which 8.24 Mha is agricultural land.
The land-man ratio on the basis of total land area is 0.092 ha and per capita agricultural land is 0.051
ha. In one hand, rapid population growth has exerted intense pressure on the scarce land resource to
produce more food for the huge population as well as for infrastructure development. During the last
decade, the NCA declined at an annual average rate of 0.035% which is more than 28.8 thousand
hectares that went out of agricultural use per year. On the other hand, intensified agricultural land use
accompanied with increased use of modern crop varieties has contributed to the deterioration of soil
health (Jahiruddin and Satter, 2010).

In Bangladesh, many different processes of land degradation or land quality change are active due to
improper anthropogenic interventions. The active land degradation processes are water erosion and
loss of fertility due to physicochemical or biological degradation of soils. Water erosion is widespread
and affecting about a quarter of the agricultural land. The areas of low soil fertility comprise about 60%
of the total cultivable land of the country which is due to nutrient mining, as the balance between input
and uptake of plant nutrients is negative in most cases. Deficiencies of major nutrients like N, P, K and
S are widespread. While, deficiencies of micronutrients like Zn, B, Mg and Mo have been reported in
many areas. Most of the Bangladesh soils suffer from organic matter depletion and contain less 1.0 to
1.7%. Presently, the average organic matter content of 50% of the soils is only 1.0%.

Besides these, salinity in the coastal area and loss of newly accreted land and topsoil in the hilly areas
adds to the problem. Over 30% (2.85 Mha) of the NCA is on the coast of which 1.06 Mha is affected by
different degrees of salinity. Agricultural land use is poor because of tillage problem, and crop
diversification is hindered because of the lack of suitable salt tolerant crop cultivars. Crop yield very
often suffers to a great extent due to salinity. Loss of land and soil resources in the floodplains and
newly accreted land mass or char lands are subject to moderate to severe erosion due to mainly river
erosion. Further loss of topsoil in the hill slopes (1.74 Mha) due to faulty management are of serious
environmental concern.

2.1.4. Decreasing and Degrading Water Resources

It has been reported that water crisis is creating a dangerously threatening situation for biodiversity and
agriculture in the northern region of Bangladesh where the rivers are gradually dying. About 50 rivers
are on the verge of dying. The rivers with a little water from upper part of the Padma River have lost

CCDB 21I
their flow in the dry season. Although the rivers are fast flowing in the monsoon, their flows become
slow and volume reduced in the dry season. The absence of river flow accelerates sand and silt
deposition on the riverbeds. The list of dying rivers in the country is ever growing and in different
northern districts, the number of rivers that have already died or in the point of dying is about 50. The
river research survey identified these as seasonal rivers.

The Farakka barrage accelerates the problem that affects Bangladesh and has caused both long term
and short term effects during the low-flow months. If the situation continues, it is very likely that
one-fourth of the fertile agricultural land will become wasteland due to the shortage of water. On the
other hand, frequent flooding due to environmental imbalance and changes in the natural flow of the
Ganges will occur. Increased salinity in the southwest Bangladesh is already threatening crops, animal
life, potable water and industrial activities. (Special Correspondent, www.bdchronicle.com, 2014).

Moreover, the increasing urbanization and industrialization of Bangladesh have negative implications
for water quality. As a result of industrial effluent discharge and other human activities make surface
water unusable in most areas surrounding large urban and industrial centers. The extremely poor
quality of the water is not suitable for human consumption or for irrigation.

Groundwater extraction both for human consumption and irrigation has reached alarming proportions
in some places. Every year groundwater level is falling in areas of excessive extraction. If the trend
continues severe shortages will be felt in those places (Hossain, 2015). The groundwater irrigation
increased with the expansion of High Yielding Variety (HYV) rice cultivation. About 80% of groundwater
was used for crop production of which boro paddy alone consumes 62% of total irrigation. Hence, boro
rice production is increasing at about one percent annually and contributes to 55% of the total rice
production (BBS, 2016). Reduced water availability, climate change, and intensive agricultural
practices through changing crops and cropping patterns resulted in increased demand for water in the
country.

Arsenic in groundwater is a major health and environmental concern in Bangladesh. A large-scale

contamination of groundwater with arsenic has been detected in about two-thirds of the geographic
area of the country. It has been identified that arsenic-laden pyrites are the source minerals of arsenic
that are being drawn up to the surface with the groundwater extraction. Water samples from over
one-half of the hand tube-wells in 54 districts showed arsenic concentrations exceeding the nationally
acceptable limit of 0.05 mg/l.

2.1.5. Increasing Natural Hazards

The country is vulnerable to many environmental hazards, including frequent floods, droughts, cyclones,
and storm surges and inland salinity. Frequent natural hazards are common that damage life, property,
and agricultural production and their severity is increasing. Figure 8 illustrates the relationship between
cropping seasons and occurrence of hazards in Bangladesh.

I
22 CCDB
Floods: Different types of flood occur in Bangladesh. About 1.32 Mha and 5.05 Mha of the net cropped
area (NCA) is severely and moderately flood prone. In 1998, over 65% of the country’s land area was
inundated for a period of over 60 days. Crop loss was enormous, besides the loss of human life and
materials.

Droughts: Rainfed transplanted aman paddy which contributes nearly 40% of the total rice production
is affected by drought resulting loss of more than 45% of the achievable yield. During dry and
pre-monsoon seasons, wheat, potato, broadcast paddy also suffers yield loss. About 2.32 Mha and 1.2
Mha of NCA are severely affected by drought during monsoon and dry rabi season respectively.

Cyclones and storm surge: Because of the geographic location of Bangladesh and funnel shape of the
bay in the south and southeast; severe cyclone and tidal surges are common along the 710 km long
coastal belt, causing severe damage to life and property. A tidal surge of 29 April 1991 caused death of
nearly 130 thousand people and damage to several thousand hectares of crops and other properties
(Mushtaque, et al., 2007). In the recent past, due to cyclone Sidr (November 2007) and Aila (May 2009)
damages were extensive and immeasurable. Cyclone Sidr damaged 89% of the cropland of the affected
area. When the post-Sidr cultivation recovery was about 65%, it was again hit by cyclone Aila. Only
some of the people could save their crops from the damage caused by cyclone Aila. Crop damage was
21% due to Aila as compared to that caused by cyclone Sidr.

Salinity intrusion: Coastal land of Bangladesh is affected by varying degrees of salinity. Saline soils
occur in the river deltas in a strip of land extending from few kilometers to 180 km from the coast. The
flow of freshwater in the upstream river plays an important role in controlling salinity intrusion. The
upstream withdrawal of the Ganges water has reduced the flow tremendously and increased salinity in
the tidal rivers; it has also decreased surface water availability in the rivers and canals, lowered
groundwater table and reduced soil moisture content (Hussain, 2013).

About 1.056 Mha or 63% in the coastal area (out of 1.689 Mha of cultivated land in the coast) are
affected by varying degree of salinity. The salinity varies considerably by seasons. Soil and river water
salinity increases in the dry season, while it goes down during the monsoon season. Hence, the land use
also varies temporally and spatially with seasons. Besides, some annual and perennial crops, (such as
banana, sugarcane, etc. are also grown in this region.

2.1.6. Climate Change Vulnerability

Water and agriculture are likely to be the most sensitive sectors to climate change-induced impacts,
which would impact the food production negatively and thereby increase the food prices. With the limited
land and water resources and huge population, and restraints imposed by topography, soil conditions,
aridity and considerably large disaster-prone areas, the south Asia region including Bangladesh has
become one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change (GWP SAS, 2012).
Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on climate; it influences plant growth through impeding,

CCDB 23I
stimulating, and changing crop performance. The climate components such as temperature, solar
radiation, and rainfall, relative humidity and wind velocity control crop growth and productivity either
alone, or in combination. Consequently, any major change in climate will have an impact on agriculture.
It is anticipated that climate change will have a negative influence on crop and livestock production,
hydrologic balances, input supplies and other components of agricultural systems. It is likely that climate
change will alter the types, incidences, and intensities of various biotic stresses of crop and livestock. It
may also have a bearing on the availability and timing of irrigation water supplies and the severity of soil
erosion. Nevertheless, the nature of these biophysical effects and the anthropogenic responses to them
are complex and uncertain (Singh and Pathak, 2014).

Besides most of the adverse effects of climate change will be in the form of extreme weather events,
while water-related hazards such as flood, drought, salinity ingress, bank erosion, and tidal bore are
likely to exacerbate, leading to large scale damages to crop, employment, livelihoods, and national
economy Shaw et al., (2013). According to the IPCC, Bangladesh will be one of the worst victims of
climate change. Sea level will be increased due to rise in temperature and the frequency of
cyclone-storms will also be increased. As a result, food security will be in jeopardy and different types of
natural calamities will put lives at risk. On top of these, high population density will aggravate the
problems.

Crops/Seasons/Hazards Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Broadcast Aus
Transplanted Aus
Broadcast Aman
Transplanted Aman
Transplanted Boro
Kharif-I Season
Kharif-II Season
Rabi Season
River Flood Floods
Flash Floods
Floods due to heavy rainfall
Tidal Floods
Droughts
Cyclones

Seedbed Field Duration Early Flood Normal Flood Late Flood Drought Cyclone
Source: Hussain, 1995 (Modified)

Figure 8. Crop and Hazards Calendar of Bangladesh

Source: Hussain, 1995 (Modified)

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24 CCDB
2.1.7. Climate-Resilient Agriculture and Food Security
Higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and sea level rise as well as more abrupt effects, such
as an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events such as floods, storm surges and
cyclones. An increase of one degree centigrade in sea surface temperature (SST) could increase
tropical cyclone intensity by as much as 10%, while temperature alterations associated with climate
change are already affecting the rate of snowmelt in the Himalayas, which is expected to lead to
increased flooding. It is predicted that by the year 2030, an additional 14% of the country will become
extremely vulnerable to floods, and currently, vulnerable areas will experience higher levels of
flooding. Indeed, significant proportions of areas may be permanently inundated. At the same time,
some areas of the country may be at greater risk of drought and food insecurity during the dry season,
and agricultural productivity in coastal areas may be compromised by increasing salinity. The scope
and scale of Bangladesh’s vulnerability to climate change associated with agricultural practices
demands serious assessment (Hussain, 2011a). These climatic changes will generate significant
effects on the different magnitudes and determinants of food security of Bangladesh. Climate change
will affect the productivity of rainfed crops and forage, reduce water availability and change the
severity and distribution of crop, livestock and human diseases. Even though Bangladesh is a small
country, the impacts of climate change on agriculture will vary across the north to south and from east
to west.

2.1.8. Climate Impacts on Food Security and Nutrition

The available quantitative studies shown that climate change will negatively affect food security at the
country, regional and global level in the long run. The research suggests that, at the global level,
climate change will reduce crop yields and the land suitable for agricultural production with the
greatest impacts in tropical latitudes where the greatest food security challenges persist. Some
impacts may arise from remote changes in climate, due to dependence on rivers fed by precipitation,
snowmelt and glacial melt occurring elsewhere. The evidence suggests that the impacts of climate
change on food security will be spread unevenly, affecting the populations that are currently most at
risk of hunger. Ultimately, how strongly the impacts of climate change are felt will depend on the ability
to adapt to these changes (Krishnamurthy et al., 2012).

Globally, most of the people depend on plant C3 that is grown to produce grains (rice, and wheat) and
pulses (lentil and mung bean) as their primary dietary source of zinc and iron. Myers et al., (2014)
reported that when C3 grains and legumes are grown in the elevated atmospheric CO2 level expected
by 2050 (~545-585 ppm) contain lower concentrations of zinc and iron. Wheat grown in high levels of
CO2 had 9% less zinc and 5% less iron, as well as 6% less protein, while rice had 3% less zinc, 5%
less iron and 8% less protein. Similarly, in case of maize more than 5% less zinc, nearly 6% less iron
and about 5% less protein was observed while soybeans lost similar levels of zinc (5%) and iron (4%)
but, being a legume not a cereal, the protein content was not lowered (Figure 9). They also reported
that as sensitivity to the atmospheric CO2 concentration of different varieties of a single crop differ,
breeding for decreased sensitivity to could partly address these new challenges to global health.

CCDB 25I
 2
Wheat Rice Maize Soybean
0

-2
Percent

-4

-6

-8
Zinc Iron Protein
-10

Figure 9. Percentage under CO2 levels expected in 2050

Source: Myers, et al., 2014

The people of Bangladesh have been adapting to the risks of floods, droughts, and cyclones for
centuries. The heavy reliance on rural people on agriculture and natural resources increases their
vulnerability to climate change. Therefore, supporting rural and urban communities to strengthen their
resilience and adaptation to climate change will remain a high priority in coming decades. Disaster
management, climate change, and other related issues in agriculture are cross-cutting in nature. All
the sub-sectors of agriculture are vulnerable to natural hazards, shocks, and stresses. Although, all
the sub-sectors might not be impacted equally, but it is likely that some would be more susceptible.

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26 CCDB
3 Crops, Cropping Systems
and Cropping Patterns

I
CCDB 49
3. Crops, Cropping Systems
and Cropping Patterns
3.1. Cropping Seasons
A tropical monsoon climate with hot, wet summers and cool dry winters prevails throughout
Bangladesh. For rainfed agriculture- still by far the most common form of agriculture in Bangladesh-
the distribution of rainfall over an annual period is very important, particularly, because it determines
whether one or two good kharif rice crops can be grown. Only in the north-east of the country, the rainy
season is sufficiently long to allow two transplanted rice crops of normal duration to be grown reliably
in the rotation without irrigation, but the excessive rainfall, cloudiness, and humidity in this area impose
a limitation. In the central part of the country, Aus and T. aman rice can be grown in rotation only when
quick-maturing varieties are chosen. In the west, the rainy season is too short and uncertain for more
than one kharif rice crop to be grown reliably without irrigation. Where irrigation is available, the length
of the growing season is irrelevant, but excessive rainfall remains a constraint for paddy crops in the
east and for kharif dryland crops in all areas (Hussain et al., 2012).

The seasonal distribution of rainfall in Bangladesh splits the cropping season and crop selection.
There are three different crop growing seasons in Bangladesh, namely- rabi, kharif-1 and kharif-2.
However, for rice there again three distinct growing seasons are known as boro, aus, and aman. The
crops that are grown in the winter season, from November to April are called rabi crops or the “winter
crops”. Some of the important rabi crops are wheat, maize, barley, lentil, peas, chickpea and mustard.
The crops that are sown in the rainy season are called kharif crops, also known as the summer or
monsoon crop. In Bangladesh, kharif crops are usually sown with the beginning of the first rain in July
during the southwest monsoon season. The main monsoon season in Bangladesh runs from June to
September. The transition between dry rabi and the rainy season is also known as the pre-kharif
period or as kharif-1 season or as the pre-monsoon season. The kharif-1 season begins in March and
kharif-2 season in April and extends until October. This season is characterized by high temperature,
rainfall, and humidity. The important kharif crops are paddy, maize, groundnut, sun hemp, etc. Jute
and paddy are grown under wetland condition while the other crops are grown under non-flooded dry
land condition (Hassan and Sys, 1986).

Pre-kharif season is differentiated from other two seasons by undependable rainfall which varies in
timing, frequency, and intensity from year to year and provides only an intermittent supply of moisture
for the standing crops. The transition period between dry rabi and wet kharif seasons and its relative
lengths depend on the timing and intensity of pre-monsoon rainfall in individual years. The major
crops, such as jute, broadcast aman, and aus paddy, groundnut, amaranths, teasle gourd, etc. are
grown on residual moisture or under rainfed condition during this season. However, with the
expansion of irrigation facilities, some of the pre-kharif crops are now grown under irrigated conditions.
These include sugarcane, maize, jute, amaranths, groundnut, banana, sesame, okra, teasel gourd,
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28 CCDB
sweet gourd, white gourd, bitter gourd, balsam apple, ribbed gourd, Indian spinach, ginger, turmeric,
etc. (Banglapedia, 2015).

3.1.1. Rice Cropping Seasons

In Bangladesh, rice is grown in three overlapping seasons. The rice growing seasons are aus, aman
and boro. Since Aus and boro are overlapping crops, the growing seasons can also be classified as
wet (aman) and dry (boro and aus) seasons. Descriptions of these seasons are given below:

Aus is mostly a direct-seeded rice growing season, seeds are sown during March-April and harvested
in July-August. The cultivars of this group are sporadically fixed maturing and photoperiod insensitive.
Although this crop is mainly rainfed and dry-seeded (broadcasted) but when adequate rainfall and
irrigation is available it is also transplanted. With the pre-monsoon rainfall during March to May,
farmers grow Aus as a short-duration drought-resistant crop. Transplanted Aus rice seedling is raised
during March-April and harvesting is done during July-August. The crop is usually transplanted with
20-30 day old seedlings. During the Aus season farmers prefer local varieties but recently, they are
growing modern short duration varieties.

Aman season rice is sown in the rainy season (July-August) and harvested in November-December.
Normally, aman rice is either sown directly through broadcasting or transplanted. Broadcast aman
rice: This rice is also known as deepwater rice (DWR) in Bangladesh. Traditionally, this rice is
direct-seeded on deeply-flooded (1-4 m) land from March to May (pre-monsoon period). But,
nowadays with changes in the cropping pattern, this rice is also transplanted during May-June. In both
cases, after the establishment of the crop, the plants grow with rising floodwater from June to
September. This photoperiod sensitive rice is harvested during November-December after the
floodwater recedes. Transplanted (T.) aman rice: A group of traditional photoperiod-sensitive rice
varieties transplanted in July-August and harvested in November-December. Recently in Bangladesh,
photoperiod-insensitive varieties are also available and farmers are also growing these during T. aman
season. On land with shallow flooding depth aman is transplanted with shorter duration varieties.

Boro season rice is transplanted in winter and harvested in summer. Now, with the spread of
groundwater irrigation, this group of photoperiod-insensitive irrigated rice can be grown on all land
types. It is mostly transplanted in January-February and harvested in May-June. Earlier farmers used
to grow boro in the very low-lying land that is not suitable for growing any crop during the monsoon
season, after the recession of the flood boro was transplanted in November and harvested in
April-May.

3.2. Major Crops of Bangladesh

Although Bangladesh is small in size, the country is blessed with edaphic and climatic resources those
are congenial for growing tropical and temperate crops. Cereals, pulses, oilseeds, potatoes, and
vegetables, spices and fruits of many different kinds are grown here.

CCDB 29I
3.2.1. Cereal Crops
The major cereals grown in Bangladesh are rice, wheat, and maize. While, the minor cereals include
barley (Hordeum vulgare), Jower (Sorghum, Sorghum bicolor), Bazra (Pearl millet, Pennisetum
glaucum), Cheena (Proso millet, Panicum miliaceum Linn.) and Kaon (Foxtail millet, Setaria italica). All
wheat cultivars are HYV and maize cultivars are hybrids.

Among cereal crops, mainly rice production is targeted, about 75.22% of the gross cropped area (GCA
= 15.246 Mha during 2014-15) or 94.14% of the total cereal area (12.114 Mha) is occupied by this
crop. The predominantly rainfed aus rice covers about 6.92% of the GCA, the rainfed aman crop about
36.65% and the important irrigated boro rice with about 31.64% of the GCA. The share in total rice
production of aus, aman and boro is 6.7, 38.01%, and 55.37%, respectively. The area covered by
wheat and maize and other minor cereals is 2.81, and 1.91% respectively. While their contributions to
total cereal production are 3.46%, and 5.27% respectively (Figure10 and Table 10). Little over three
million hectares of GCA is used to grow nutritionally important foods such as pulses, oilseeds
vegetables, and fruits.

45.00
40.00 Production (Mt)
35.00
30.00
Area and Production

25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00 Area (Mha)
5.00
0.00
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Fical Year

Figure 10. Coverage and Production Trends of Cereals in Bangladesh

Data Source: BBS 2015 and 2016

3.2.2. Pulses
Many different kinds of pulses are grown in Bangladesh. The dominant ones are lentil (Lens culinaris),
Grass pea (Lathyrus Sativa), mung bean (Vigna radiata), black gram (Vigna mungo), chickpea (Cicer
arietinum), peas (Pisum sativum), etc.

I
30 CCDB
 Table 10. Area, Yield and Production of Cereal Crops (Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15)

Source: BBS 2015 and 2016

During the period from 2010-11 to 2014-15 the pulses area fluctuated within 0.27 to 0.41 Mha;
correspondingly, the production also varied from 0.24 to 0.41 Mt. However, the overall trends of
coverage and production are increasing (Figure 11). In general, the yield of pulses increased due to the
adoption of HYVs and better management. The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) and
the Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture (BINA) have developed and released 31 and 21
high-yielding pulse varieties, respectively.

0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30 Area (Mha)
Area and Production

0.25
Production (Mt)
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Fical Year

Figure 11. Trends of Area Coverage and Production of Pulses

in Bangladesh
Data Source: BBS 2015 and 2016

I
CCDB 31
Average coverage during the last three years (2012-13 to 2014-15) stands at 0.341 Mha from where
0.447 Mt of different pulses were produced. Only 2.26% of the gross cropped area was planted to
pulses. With the increase in irrigated area, pulses are facing intense competition with boro rice and
shrinking of agricultural land. Farmers are more interested in growing boro rice because of household
food security than pulses. The major production of pulses comes from lentil (31.05%),
Garikalai-Soybean (26.37%), Grass pea (24.87%), mung bean (6.70%). and chickpea (1.5%). The
area, yield, and production of pulses (Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15) is presented in Table 11.

Table 11. Area, yield and Production of Pulses (Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15)

Source: BBS 2015 and 2016

3.2.3. Oilseeds
Several kinds of oilseed are grown in the country. The dominant ones are rape and mustard (Brassica
campestris/Brassica juncea), soybean (Glysine max), sesame (Sesamum indicum), groundnut
(Arachis hypogea), and linseed (Linum usitatissimum).

During the last five years (2010-11 to 2014-15) oilseed area increased from 0.37 to 0.42 Mha and the
production also increased to from 0.73 to 0.90 Mt (Figure 12). Rape and mustard are the predominant
oilseed crops with 2.0% of the gross cropped area, while groundnut has 0.325% of the area allocated.
The average (2012-13 to 2014-15) contributions of rape and mustard, soybean, sesame, groundnut,
and linseed in total production are 37.20%, 9.92%, 3.96%, 6.70% and 0.67% respectively. All are
annuals but the coconut (Cocos nucifera) a perennial crop which supplied 42.69% of the total oilseeds
production (Table 12).

3.2.4. Other Crops

The average of production tuber crops occupied 3.196% of the GCA during 2012-13 to 2014-15 to
produce 9.19 Mt of which potato was 8.93 Mt and 0.26 Mt sweet potato. Spices and condiments that

I
32 CCDB
 1.00
0.90
0.80
Area and Production
Production (Mt)
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
Area (Mha)
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Fical Year

Figure 12. Trends of Area Coverage and Production of

Oilseeds in Bangladesh
Data Source: BBS 2015 and 2016

Table 12. Area, Yield and Production of Oilseeds (Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15)

Source: BBS 2015 and 2016

include chilies, onion, garlic, turmeric, ginger, coriander seeds, etc. occupied 2.280% of the GCA and
produced 2.06 Mt. The highest area was under onion cultivation (0.151 Mha) and produced 1.42 Mt.
The next highest area of 0.09 Mha was occupied chilies and produced 0.11 Mt.

Sugar crops those are grown in Bangladesh comprise sugar cane for making sugar, while date palm
(juice and fruits) and palmyra palm (juice and fruits) juice are used to make gur (Jaggery). About 0.11
M ha (0.70% of the GCA) land was used to produce 4.47 Mt sugar. Among the fiber crops jute is
dominant and occupied 4.44% of the GCA while cotton was grown on only 0.08% of the GCA The
production of jute and cotton accounted for 7.52 and 0.02 million bales.

I
CCDB 33
Sugar crops those are grown in Bangladesh comprise sugar cane for making sugar, while date palm
(juice and fruits) and palmyra palm (juice and fruits) juice are used to make Gur (Jaggery). About 0.11
M ha (0.70% of the GCA) land was used to produce 4.47 Mt sugar. Among the fiber crops, jute is
dominant and occupied 4.44% of the GCA while cotton was grown on only 0.08% of the GCA The
production of jute and cotton accounted for 7.52 and 0.02 million bales.
A huge number of tropical and temperate vegetables are grown in the country. These include brinjal,
pumpkin, cauliflower, cabbage, tomato, radish, carrot, etc. different kinds of beans, leafy vegetables
such as Indian spinach, red amaranth, spinach, etc., okra, cucumber, green papaya, various kinds of
aroids and gourds. The most important winter vegetables are tomato, eggplants, radish, pumpkin,
cauliflower, and cabbage. To produce 1.93 Mt winter vegetables 1.34% (0.20 Mha) of the GCA was
used. Summer vegetables accounted for 1.20% (0.18 Mha) of the GCA and produced 1.14 Mt. Arum,
eggplants, stem amaranth, Indian spinach, green banana, palwal, etc. are the dominant summer
vegetables. As the commercial cattle farming and demand for flowers are growing, fodder and flower
cultivation are still at their initial stage. Fruits are grown as annual and perennial crops occupied 0.54%
and 0.36% of the GCA respectively. The main fruits are the banana, mango, pineapple, jackfruit,
watermelon, guava, litchi, papaya, and other fruits (36.2 percent). A summary of other crops is
presented in Table 13.
Table 13. Area, Yield and Production of Oilseeds (Average of 2012-13 to 2014-15)

Data Source: BBS 2015 and 2016

3.3. Cropping Systems and Cropping Patterns

3.3.1. Difference between Cropping Pattern and Cropping System
Although the two terms ‘cropping pattern’ and ‘cropping system’ are used interchangeably but these are
two different concepts. Cropping pattern refers to the yearly sequential arrangement of crops or of
crops and fallow in a piece of land; while cropping system refers to cropping pattern as well as its
interaction with resources, technology, environment, etc. Therefore, a cropping system encompasses
cropping pattern, in addition, all components required for the production of a particular crop and the
interrelationships between them and the environment. The cropping system is a critical aspect in
developing an effective ecological farming system of managing and organizing crops so that they can

I
34 CCDB
make best use the available resources (soil, air, sunlight, water, labor, equipment, etc.). It represents
cropping patterns used on a farm and their interaction with farm resources and farm enterprises and
available technology which determine their makeup. It is executed at the field level. Crops are grown in
a particular field over a period of years in sequences and following a set management techniques.
Sustainability of agricultural production systems is enhanced when a proper cropping system is
followed. There are several types of cropping systems that are practiced around the globe. These are:
Monocropping or monoculture, refers to the presence of a single crop in a field. This term is often
used to refer to growing the same crop year after year in the same field; this practice is better described
as continuous cropping, or continuous monocropping.
Multiple-cropping (also known as sequential cropping) is the practice of growing two or more crops in
sequence on the same field in a period of 12 months. On the basis of the number of crops grown in a
year, it is called double, triple or quadruple cropping.
Intercropping refers to growing of two or more crops in same the field at the same time. An example
of intercropping is planting alternating rows of sugarcane and pulses. On the basis of spatial
arrangement; the intercropping can be of different types such as:
Row intercropping involves the component crops arranged in alternate rows. The benefits of this
include optimum utilization of land space and suppression of weeds during the juvenile stage of the
main crop.
Strip Intercropping involves growing two or more crops in strips that are wide enough to allow
separate management of the two crops, but close enough for the crops to interact.
Mixed intercropping or mixed cropping refers to growing of two or more crops at the same time with
no distinct row arrangement.
Relay intercropping is a technique in which different crops are planted at different times in the same
field, and both (or all) crops spend at least part of their season growing together in the field. Thus relay
cropping has a minimal temporal overlap of two or more crops.
Strip cropping is the presence of two or more crops in the same field, planted in strips such that most
plant competition is within each crop rather than between crops.
Crop rotation refers crops are changed from year to year according to a planned sequence. Crop
rotation is considered to be a key principle of conservation agriculture for, it improves the soil structure
and fertility. It also helps to control weeds, pests, and diseases.
Studies have shown that multiple cropping has been advantageous in reducing insect pests and
disease damage in some areas through diversifying the cropping system by introducing plant species
that are non-hosts for certain insects and diseases (Hammond and Jeflers, 1990; Martin, et al., 1989).
Perhaps the most attractive aspect of multiple cropping to producers is that these systems can boost
yields and increase profits (Cramer and Cicero, 1992).

CCDB 35I
3.4. Factors Affecting Crops and Cropping Patterns
The cropping pattern of a region reveals the share of an area of land under different crops at a point of
time, the crop rotation and the coverage under different crops. The cropping pattern changes spatially
and temporally. In reality, no cropping pattern can be good and ideal for all times to come. The cropping
systems of a region are decided mostly, by different types of soil and climatic parameters which
determine the overall agroecological setting for suitability of a crop or a set of crops for cultivation. At
farmers' level, potential productivity and monetary benefits act as guiding principles, while opting for a
particular crop/cropping system. These decisions with respect to the selection of crops and cropping
systems are further narrowed down under the influence of several other forces related to infrastructure
facilities, socio-economic factors, and technological developments, all operating interactively at
micro-level. The predominant cropping system in any region is, therefore, the cumulative result of the
past and present decisions by individuals, communities or governments, and their agencies.

A cropping pattern plays a vital role in determining the level of agricultural production and reflects the
agricultural economy of an area or region. A change or shift in cropping pattern implies a change in the
proportion of the area under different crops which depends on, to a large extent, on the facilities
available to grow crops in the given agro-climatic conditions. Furthermore, the natural, social, economic
and historical factors which determine the cropping pattern of a region, the cropping pattern also
changes in an agreement between opinions or actions with the government policies and technological
innovations, especially in agriculture (Akhter and Acharya, 2015). Therefore, cropping pattern of any
region depends upon many factors e.g. physical and technical factors, economic factors as well as on
the government policies and actions. The factors given below are the major determinants that guide the
selection of crops and cropping patterns:

Productivity and profit for the Farmer: Irrespective of spatial context the potential productivity of a
particular crop and its monetary returns are the key principles that guide the selection of a cropping
pattern.

Availability of Agricultural Infrastructure: Agricultural infrastructure primarily includes wide range of

public services that facilitate production, procurement, processing, preservation and trade. Agricultural
infrastructure can be grouped under following broad based categories.

Input based infrastructure: Seed, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Farm equipment and machinery etc.
Resource based infrastructure: Water/irrigation, Farm power/energy
Physical infrastructure: Road connectivity, Transport, storage, processing, preservation, etc
Institutional infrastructure: Agricultural research, extension and education technology, information and
communication services, financial services, marketing, etc.

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36 CCDB
Edaphic and Climatic factors: Suitability of the land with respect to terrain, topography, slope, soil
properties, etc. and congenial climatic factors for the crops like temperature regime, solar radiation,
rainfall, etc.

Socio-economic and Political factors: Socio-economic and Political factors: The Socio-economic
are land ownership, tenure system, use, land holding size, and types, labor, and capital and credit
availability, etc. Political factors such as subsidies, price support, good governance, etc. influence the
choice of crop and cropping patterns.

Availability of Appropriate Technology: These include the availability of improved seeds; farm
mechanization; agricultural extension services including information technology etc.

There are so many factors that influence the selection of a crop and cropping pattern. Basically,
cropping pattern is a dynamic concept because it keeps changing as one cropping pattern is not always
perfect for a particular field. We can cite recent examples of Northwestern part of the country here. The
scarcity and cost escalation of irrigation water and the increased market price of pulses have
encouraged the farmers to switch from the cultivation of primarily irrigated boro rice to grow low-water
consuming pulses. The drivers of this change also include profitability; government policy etc.

CCDB 37I
 4 Research Design
and Methods

I
52 CCDB
4. Research Design and Methods
The study has been conducted basically based on secondary information/data collected through
literature review, field visits, and interviews of key informants/stakeholders. This analytical study was
based on logical analysis and interpretation of research results, available references materials, and
field experiences. The following tools and methods were used to collect primary and secondary
information/data those are relevant for this study.

4.1. Information Collection Methods

Published information and data were collected and documented with proper bibliographic references.
The sources of information were books, national and international journals, reports, newspapers, web
portals, etc. Collected variety specific information for the selected crops along with their major
characteristics were compiled from various sources and presented as Annex-1. Following this review
of literature, the study collected information from field observations, key informant (KI) interviews with
the researchers, agriculture extension officers, progressive farmers and other relevant persons. Key
informants selected from National Agricultural Research System (NARS) institutes, Department of
Agriculture Extension (DAE), and farmers from stress-prone areas of the country participated. The List
of Farmers Interviewed, List of Key Informants Interviewed and List of Farmers Interviewed are
presented as Annex-2 Annex-3 Annex-4, respectively. Initially, 21 Upazilas of 18 districts covering 14
AEZs of the country in the target regions were identified as most affected by salinity, drought and flood.
In doing this the AEZ, land use, various hazards, and administrative maps were used as references.

4.1.1. Key Informant Survey

Key Informant survey is an important tool for planning and evaluating community-based programs.
Employed this tool to gather views on current and innovative adaptive measures in facing climatic
variability and climate change, and knowledge related to smart technologies. Also using this tool
validated Information regarding crops, cultivars, cropping systems and cropping patterns.

4.2. Crop Simulation Modeling

Efforts were made to assemble information on crop simulation modeling related research undertaken
by different organizations/persons in the country as well as other countries of the world. Also,
highlighted the prospects and limitations of crop modeling as a decision aid. Some DSSAT 4.6
(Hoogenboom et al., 2015) based crop model simulations were used to generate information,
especially for the major crops to assess climate change impact of crop agriculture.

4.3 Geographic Information System

Collected digital maps of flood, drought, salinity, agroecological regions, administrative units, and
others relevant to this study from different sources. The sources were Bangladesh Country Almanac a
CD-based spatial database (BCA ver. 3.0) of BARC-CIMMYT (2006), CEGIS and SRDI. Reproduced
some of the maps through digitizing hardcopy maps from books and journal articles. Used
ArcGIS-ArcMap ver. 10.2.2 (ESRI, 2014) geographic information system software developed by ESRI
CCDB 39I
to generate maps to show the locations and spatial extent also to estimate areas of different spatial
features of maps.

4.4. Limitations of the Study

The limitations of this study are that the survey was conducted only in locations identified as most
affected by the salinity intrusion, drought and flood prior to the interviews and relied on secondary data,
the results of key informant discussions, and the knowledge about the region of the participating
experts. Because of the scope, time and resource allocated for the study data collection at detailed
level through the survey were not possible that can be used for in-depth analysis. The
recommendations focused on the possible cropping patterns that are suitable and feasible for these
regions only.

40 I CCDB
5 Major Abiotic
Stresses

I
CCDB 53
 5. Major Abiotic Stresses
Bangladesh is exposed to many natural hazards of different nature and magnitude. These are floods,
cyclones, droughts, tornadoes, cold waves, earthquakes, drainage congestion/water logging, arsenic
contamination, salinity intrusion, etc. But the nature of such events, the seasons and extent of effects
of the hazards are not the same in all places. In this chapter, only three major stresses such as
droughts, floods, and salinity are discussed in depth.

5.1. Salinity
Salinization is the most important form of land degradation. The major saline affected districts are
Satkhira, Khulna, Pirojpur, Barguna, Patuakhali, Noakhali and Cox's Bazar. This area is relatively flat
and suffers inundation by saline water to different degrees. Other environmental challenges include
tidal surge, cyclone, acid sulphate soils (located at Sundarbans and Chakaria), and waterlogging in
polder areas, river erosion and unstable atolls.

The main causes of increase in salinity are the decrease of upstream flow of fresh water and intrusion
of saline seawater in the country through coastal rivers, creeks etc. Both magnitude and extent of soil
salinity are increasing with time. Over the last 36 years (1973−2009) the soils of Jessore, Magura,
Narail, Faridpur, Gopalganj, Barisal, Jhalakathi, and Patuakhali have been newly salinized. In 1973, the
extent salinity was 0.83 Mha and it became 1.06 Mha in 2009. A comparative study of the salt-affected
area between 1973 and 2009 showed that about 0.22 Mha (26.7%) of lands were affected by various
degrees of salinity during the last four decades (SRDI, 2012). The same study also confirms that during
the period of 2000 − 2009 about 0.04 Mha were affected by various degrees of salinity. The distribution
of saline soil in the country is shown in the map (Figure 13).

Mahmuduzzaman et al., (2014) identified the cause of salinity intrusion in the coastal belt of
Bangladesh. Among the causes such as the critical geographical location of the country, low flow
condition of the river by a barrage in the upstream neighboring country, faulty management of coastal
polders, sea level rise, cyclone and storm surge, backwater effect, precipitation and shrimp culture.

The agricultural production constraints that are active in the region are soil and water (irrigation)
salinity, high flooding depth in monsoon season, late draining, heavy soil consistency, poor soil fertility
status, the high osmotic pressure causing a reduction in absorption of water and nutrients, poor soil
structure and cyclonic storm surges. The salinity increases in dry months showing a peak in March−
April and decreases in wet months with the minimum in July−August. Growing of salt tolerant crops and
varieties, improving drainage system, green manuring and use of mulches could be good options for
crop production in this soil.

Climatologically, the coastal belt of Bangladesh is the most vulnerable area where mangrove forests in
Bagerhat are most vulnerable. The critical challenge is to manage coastal resources and to adapt the
I
42 CCDB
production system with the climate change scenario. The major effects due to climate change are the
increased soil and water salinity, inland salinity intrusion, waterlogging, loss of crops, loss of mangrove
and fisheries diversity, and disease in crops, fishes, and animals.
88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

SOIL SALINITY AFFECTED REGIONS

BANGLADESH

26°0'0"N
26°0'0"N

INDIA
25 12.5 0 25 50 75 100
Kilometers

25°0'0"N
25°0'0"N

24°0'0"N
INDIA
24°0'0"N

INDIA

23°0'0"N
23°0'0"N

22°0'0"N
22°0'0"N

B A Y O F B ENGAL
Legend
SALINITY CLASS
Non-saline
MYANMAR

Non-saline with some very slightly saline

21°0'0"N
21°0'0"N

Very slightly saline with some slightly saline

Slightly saline with some moderately saline
Moderately saline with some strongly saline
Strongly saline wiyh some very strongly saline
District Boundary
Rivers and Bay of Bengal
88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

Figure 13. Distribution of Salinity Affected Areas

Data Source: SRDI, 2010
I
CCDB 43
5.1.1. Salt and Tidal Surge Affected Areas
In general, the term 'coastal' is defined as the interface between land and sea or a place where land,
water, and air meet. The coastal zone is most frequently defined as 'land affected by its proximity to the
sea and that part of the sea affected by its proximity to the land.' This interface is taking place along two
axes: the axis running along the coast and the axis perpendicular to the coastline. The coastal zone of
the country lies within the tropical zone between 21-23° N and 89-93° E. It covers a zone that includes
intertidal and sub-tidal areas above the continental shelves and the adjacent land area up to 100 km
inland from the coast. The zone extends over 149 Upazilas (sub-districts) of 19 administrative districts
facing the Bay of Bengal or having proximity to the Bay. In the coastal region eight agroecological
regions and nine general soil types occur. Among AEZ regions the dominant ones are. Ganges Tidal
Floodplain, Young Meghna Estuarine Floodplain and Chittagong Coastal Plain. Others are High
Ganges River Floodplain, St. Martin's Coral Island, Northern-Eastern Hills, Old Meghna Estuarine
Floodplain and Lower Meghna River Floodplain. Nine main general soil types are: Calcareous
Alluvium, Noncalcareous Alluvium, Calcareous Grey Floodplain Soils, Noncalcareous Grey FloodpWn
Soils, Calcareous Dark Grey Floodplain Soils, Noncalcareous Dark Grey Floodplain Soils, Acid
Sulphate Soils, and Peat (Karim et al., 1990a). Out of 19 coastal districts and 149 upazilas, 18 districts
and 103 upazilas are affected by various degrees of salinity. The coastal and off-shore area of
Bangladesh include tidal, estuarine and meander floodplains. About 57% of the salt affected area
occurs in Ganges Tidal Floodplain followed by Young Meghna Estuarine Floodplain (17%),
Gopalganj-Khulna Bils (8%) and High Ganges River Floodplain (7%). About 4% each is in Chittagong
Coastal Plain and Low Ganges River Floodplain.

The coastal region of Bangladesh, in

Figure 14. Accumulation of Salt on Soil Surface
absence of appreciable rainfall in the
winter months the soil starts to
desiccate, and because of capillary
actions salt comes up at the surface of
the soil and accumulates at the root
zones of crops (Figure 14). Crop
production constraints include
reduction in absorption of water and
nutrients due to high osmotic pressure,
poor soil structure and damage of
young plants. Shallow rooted crops are
more affected. Fertility status of this soil
including organic matter content is
generally low.

Among the nutrients, the N, P and Zn contents of soil are especially low. Both cropping intensity and
crop yields are low, average cropping intensity being 60% and rice yield (mainly local aman) 1.5 t ha-1

I
44 CCDB
only. Many of the crop varieties are not salinity tolerant, and as a result, a large area in the coastal
districts becomes virtually unsuitable for a number of crops, while the production of a few other crops
is lesser under saline conditions. Due to temporal and spatial variation in soil salinity, location specific
crop planning is rather important. Barley and cotton have considerable salt tolerance to salinity. Wheat,
maize, potato, mustard, linseed and groundnut can be grown in low saline areas (Figure 15).

Soil Salinity (ECe in dS m-1)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Barley
Cotton
Sugerbeet
Sorghum
Wheat
Soyabean
Cowpea
Groundnut (Peanut)
Rice (Paddy)
Sugercane
Corn (Maize)
Flax
Beet, red
Squash, scallop
Broccoli
Tomato
Cucumber
Pepper
Sweet Potato
Potato
Spaniach
Sesbania (Sesbania exaitata)
Bean (Phaselous vulgaris)

Percent Yield Reduction

0 10 25 50 100
Adapted from Maas and Hoffman (1977) and (1984)

Figure 15. Salinity Tolerance Levels and Yield Potential of Selected Crop

The top ten salinity affected districts are Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Patuakhali, Barguna, Bhola, Cox's
Bazar, Noakhali, Chittagong, and Pirojpur. This area is relatively flat and suffers inundation by saline

I
CCDB 45
water to different degrees. Other environmental challenges include tidal surge, cyclone, acid sulphate
soils (located at Sundarbans and Chakaria), and waterlogging in polder areas, river erosion and
unstable atolls. About 60 islands are identified in the coastal zone to date (Islam, 2004). Most of the
islands are located in the central coastal zone, because of the dynamic river flow of the Ganges-
Brahmaputra-Meghna river system. The distribution of different categories of saline soil in the affected
districts is given in Table 14.
Table 14. Soil Salinity Affected Districts by Areas Extent (ha) and Degrees of Salinity

Source: Summarized from Saline soils of Bangladesh (SRDI, 2010)

More than 30% of the cultivable land in Bangladesh is in the coastal area. Out of 2.86 million hectares
of coastal and off-shore lands about 1.056 Mha of arable lands are affected by varying degrees of
salinity. The coastal area is suitable for growing rice and farmers mostly cultivate low yielding,
traditional rice varieties during wet season under rainfed condition. Most of the land remains fallow in
the dry season (January-May) because of soil salinity, lack of good quality irrigation water and late
draining condition (Karim et al., 1990a; Mondal, 1997 and SRDI, 2001). Crop production of the salt
affected areas in the coastal regions differs considerably from non-saline areas. Because of salinity,
special environmental and hydrological situation exists, that restrict the normal crop production
throughout the year. In the recent past, with the changing degree of salinity of some areas due to further
intrusion of saline water, normal crop production becomes very risky. Crop yields, cropping intensity,
production levels and people’s quality of livelihood are much lower than that in other parts of the
country, which have enjoyed the fruits of modern agriculture technologies based on high yielding

I
46 CCDB
varieties, improved fertilizer and water management and improved pest and disease control measures
(BBS, 2001). At the same time food demand in the area is increasing with the steady increase in human
population. The present study analyzed the soil and water salinity intensity, extent, constraints and
possible soil and water management practices to be followed in coastal areas of Bangladesh for the
betterment of the country.

5.1.2. Current Dominant Cropping Patterns in Salt and Tidal Surge Affected Areas
The agricultural production constraints that are active in the region are soil and water (irrigation)
salinity, high flooding depth in monsoon season, late draining, heavy soil consistency, poor soil fertility
status, high osmotic pressure causing reduction in absorption of water and nutrients, poor soil structure
and cyclonic storm surges. The salinity increases in dry months showing a peak in March-April and
decreases in wet months with the minimum in July-August. Growing of salt tolerant crops and varieties,
improving drainage system, green manuring and use of mulches could be good options for crop
production in this soil.

The dominant cropping patterns in this region are Boro − T. aman, Fallow − T. aus − T. aman, and Fallow
− Fallow − T. aman, in the nonsaline with very slightly saline areas. In the very slightly, slightly and
moderately saline areas, the major patterns are Fallow − Fallow − T. aman, Fallow − T. aus − T. aman,
and Boro − T. aman. While, Fallow − Fallow − T. aman and Shrimp − T. aman are the dominant patterns
in the strongly saline areas. Some of the important patterns in the saline area are Rabi crops/Fallow ─
Aus/Jute − T. aman, Rabi crops − B. aman, Fallow − B. aman and Rabi vegetables − Kharif vegetables.
The top-ten cropping patterns under different salinity classes is presented in Table 15.

Table 15. Top-ten Cropping Patterns under Different Salinity Class

CCDB 47I
Table 16 reveals that depending on the availability of irrigation the cropping patterns in the salinity
affected areas may be changed. Under rainfed conditions, one rabi crop with aus rice may be the
dominant pattern while the availability of irrigation may favor two or more rice with rabi crops (Ali, 2012).
Another recent study by Khan et al., (2015) reported that the cropping patterns followed in the coastal
saline region are mainly Pulses − Fallow − T. aman, Fallow − Fallow − T. aman and Watermelon −
Fallow − T. aman (Table 17).
Table 16. Major Cropping Pattern in Salinity Affected Areas under Rainfed
and Irrigated Conditions

Source: Ali, 2012

Table 17. Major Cropping Pattern in Salinity Affected Areas of Bangladesh

Source: Khan et al., 2015

5.2. Drought
Drought is gradual and harmful natural vulnerability characterized by lower than expected or lower than
normal precipitation that, when a period of time extended over a season or longer, is insufficient to meet
the demands of human activities and the environment. Unlike aridity, which is a permanent feature of
climate, drought is a temporary abnormality. Bangladesh has a well-defined dry season (Rabi season),
and which is not considered as drought. Drought should be evaluated as a relative state, rather than an
absolute one. It can occur in both high and low rainfall areas and virtually all climate regimes and in
most countries, in both dry and humid regions. The impact of the drought is likely to be on the climate-
and water-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, hydroelectricity generation, water transport,
groundwater recharge, etc. Drought is a regional phenomenon, and its characteristics differ from one
climate regime to another.

I
48 CCDB
5.2.1. Types of Drought
Commonly, droughts are classified contextually into four type such as meteorological, agricultural,
hydrological and socio-economic based on their development and impacts (WMO, 2006). These are
elaborated in the following section:

Meteorological drought: This type of drought is usually characterized by a precipitation deficiency

threshold over a predetermined period of time. The threshold may be chosen as 75% of normal
precipitation, and duration period, for example, six months, will vary by location according to user
needs or applications. This natural event results from multiple causes, which differ from region to
region.

Agricultural drought: This is characterized more commonly on the basis of the availability of soil
water to support crop and forage growth than by the deviation from the normal precipitation pattern over
some specified period of time. There is no direct relationship between precipitation and infiltration of
precipitation into the soil. Infiltration rates vary, depending on moisture holding capacity, slope, soil type
and the amount and length of the precipitation. Soil with a low water-holding capacity is more prone to
agricultural drought than that with high moisture-holding capacity.

Hydrological drought: This is defined by the departure of surface and subsurface water availability
from some average condition at various points in time. Like agricultural drought, there is no direct
relationship between precipitation amounts and the status of surface and subsurface water supplies in
lakes, reservoirs, aquifers and streams because these hydrological system components are used for
multiple and competing purposes, such as irrigation, recreation, tourism, flood control, transportation,
hydroelectric power generation, domestic water supply, protection of endangered species and
environmental and ecosystem management and preservation. Competition for water in these storage
systems intensifies during drought and conflicts between water users increase significantly.

Socio-economic drought occurs when physical water shortage starts to affect people, individually and
collectively. In more abstract terms, most socio-economic definitions of drought are associated with its
effect on the supply and demand of a product that has market value.

The interrelationship between these types of drought is shown in Figure 16. Agricultural, hydrological
and socio-economic drought occur less frequently than meteorological drought because impacts in
these sectors are related to the availability of moisture from surface and subsurface water sources.
While meteorological drought generally takes several weeks to manifest its impact on crops as a
consequence of soil moisture deficiencies caused due to the shortage of precipitation.

Seasonal drought is related to soil moisture deficit during certain periods within a season. In
Bangladesh, three types of droughts are recognized during monsoon season: Early-season droughts
are due to delayed onset or early breaks in monsoon rainfall. Mid-season droughts are caused by
intermittent, short or extended dry spells.
CCDB 49 I
 Terminal season droughts are caused by the early
withdrawal of monsoon rainfall. In the Barind tracts of
Decreasing emphasis on the natural event
(precipitation deficiencies
Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management
Bangladesh, terminal droughts are more frequent and
Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts

coincide with the most important growth phases of the rice

crop. The occurrence of drought may be related to the
following physical observations (CDMP-CEGIS, 2013):
Meteorological Agricultural Hydrological
• Repeatedly broken cracks develop on dried up topsoil.
• Loosening of soil structure, ending up in the topsoil
Socio-economic
and political transforming into a dusty layer.
• Burnt-out yellowish foliage in the vegetation covers
Time/duration of the event particularly observed in betel nut trees and bamboo
groves.
Figure 16. Interrelationships between • Drought-stressed plants lose their turgidity and they
Meteorological, Agricultural, Hydrological wilt.
and Socio-economic Drought • Young mustard or soybeans plants initiate flowering and
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, reproductive growth sooner than is normally expected.
University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA

There is no single working definition of drought that portrays all different conditions and captures all
causes and effects. However, under CDMP, different (meteorological, hydrological, agro-ecological and
socio-economic) definitions that have been already suggested was merged into a comprehensive
definition such as: On the basis of non-availability of rainfall (rainfall deficiency by more than 25% from
normal long-term average) for a prolonged time period over a wide area, a decreased condition in base
flow and surface flow of water bodies leading to depletion of soil moisture which ultimately causes plant
water stress and reduced biomass causing reduced yield can be defined as drought. Drought refers to
a condition when the moisture availability at the root zone is less than adequate. It is often observed
when there is an extremely high rate of evapotranspiration, or the index of aridity is high.

When evapotranspiration from soil happens to be high, it makes the soil to be unsuitable for plant growth.
In this condition, aman cultivation suffers from periodic droughts. Similar conditions are often observed in
early pre-kharif months, affecting boro and wheat cultivation in the northeast and central-east regions of
the country. The occurrence of droughts is an annual event like floods. Drought is the most widespread
and damaging of all environmental stresses, affecting 23 Mha of rainfed rice in South and Southeast Asia
alone (IRRI, 2016). Drought prevails during pre-kharif, late kharif and rabi season. Extent and magnitude
of drought during the three cropping seasons again differs spatially and temporally.

Drought-like situation has been one of the biggest enemies of Bangladeshi farmers, so much so that
the country has a record of drought spells with historical significance dating back to the 1700s. In 1999,
Bangladesh suffered the longest drought in 50 years, with more than four months without rain, and in
2010, the country recorded its lowest rainfall since 1995. Ten droughts of severe category occurred in

I
50 CCDB
Bangladesh during 1966 to 1998. While six droughts of moderate category occurred during the period
starting from 1961 to 1977. Droughts of different intensities occur in the country that has a significant
impact on agriculture and agricultural products. For instance, the consecutive drought of 1978 and
1979 directly affected 42% of cultivated land and reduced rice production by an estimation of two M t
(Brammer, 1987). Likewise, the drought of 1994-1995.

Annual rainfall ranges from <1500 mm in the dry northwest region to over 5000 mm in the wet northeast
region of Bangladesh. These values are not alarming for a nation if it is distributed evenly throughout
the year. It becomes hazardous when the distribution is erratic and uneven. In one hand, too much in
a single slot creates floods and on the other, too little causes drought. About ninety percent of the
precipitation generally occurs during the monsoon (June to September), but the distribution within
these four months varies greatly. These conditions are aggravated by the soil’s physical conditions. In
Bangladesh, there exists a large variety of soils, varying significantly with respect to moisture holding
capacities, infiltration rates, ploughpan and other moisture related properties. This problem is related to
scarcity of moisture supply to crops under rainfed condition. Due to low plant available moisture
contents of soils, the crops suffer from moisture shortage under non-irrigated condition. The soils of
Barind and Madhupur Tracts come under this category.

According to Karim et al., (1990b), drought normally affects about 2.3 Mha during the period from April
to September (kharif season) and 1.2 Mha in the dry season (October to March). A severe drought
could be as dangerous as a major flood or cyclone. As a consequence of a kharif season drought, food
grain production could be drastically reduced. Transplanted aman paddy, primarily cultivated as a
rainfed crop contributes nearly 50% to the total rice production. This crop is most affected by drought
resulting more than 45% loss of the achievable yield. During the dry and pre-monsoon season, wheat,
potato and broadcast aus
T. Aman paddy also suffer yield
loss. On the other hand,
Broadcast Aus dry season drought
affects the production of
Wheat wheat, potato, mustard
and aus paddy. An
Mustard
example is given below to
Potato
comprehend the impacts
of droughts of different
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 intensities on crops. The
Percent Yield Reduction
Figure 17 depicts potato
as the most susceptible,
Drought Classes and broadcast aus
Slight Moderate Severe Very Severe
followed by T. aman rice
Figure 17. Drought Tolerance of Commonly Grown Crops as the tolerant crops.
Data Source: Karim et al., 1990

CCDB 51I
Tanner et al., (2007) mentioned that about 2.7 Mha of land in Bangladesh is vulnerable to annual
drought. Moreover, it is a recurrent phenomenon in some parts of the country, but the northwest region
is mostly drought-prone area because of high rainfall variability (Shahid and Behrawan 2008). In the
recent past droughts were more frequent in Bangladesh than the past because of climate change
(NDMC, 2006) and it appears in every 5 years. Each year 0.45 Mha of land is affected by very severe
drought during the rabi season. Each year about 0.45 Mha of land is affected by very severe drought
during the rabi season whereas 0.40 and 0.34 Mha are affected during the pre-kharif and kharif
seasons, respectively.
The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) has identified and mapped the drought-prone
areas (based on estimated yield impacts) of the country for rabi, per-kharif and kharif seasons under
the BARC/UNDP/FAO GIS Project: BGD/95/006 in 2000. About 2.7 Mha are vulnerable to annual
drought; there is about a 10% probability that 41–50% of the country experiences drought in a given
year. Areas of Bangladesh that are affected by drought during different cropping seasons are given in
Table 18. About 18% of the rabi crops and 9% of the kharif crops are highly vulnerable to annual
drought conditions.
Table 18. Summary of Drought Severity Areas in Bangladesh by Crop Season (in Mha)

Source: Yu et al., 2010

Seasonal (rabi, kharif-I and kharif-II) drought prone areas all over Bangladesh have been identified on
upazila basis. Each of the drought vulnerable upazilas has been ranked in terms of severity for each of
the seasonal drought classification. Thus individual ranking of Rabi, Kharif-I and Kharif-II season has
been done for all the drought affected areas in terms of severity of areal extent. The top 213 vulnerable
"hotspot" upazilas have been identified from the combined vulnerability ranking. The first 20 most
vulnerable hotspots are given below In (CDMP-CEGIS, 2013), (Table19).
Table.19: Most Vulnerable Hotspots Considering Drought (Rank 1 to 20)

I
52 CCDB
Source: CDMP-CEGIS, 2013
Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, Natore, and Naogaon are the most drought-prone regions of the country
by areal extent and severity. The other districts known to be drought hot spots are Kushtia, Magura,
Chuadanga, and Jessore, where rain seldom occurs and is erratic and uncertain during the last week
of September and in October when rice plants need water.
Severe drought-prone areas of the country are in Bogra, Dinajpur, Naogaon, Natore, Nawabganj and
Rajshahi districts in the Northwestern part of Bangladesh. An extensive area of Bandarban,
Khagrachhari, and Rangamati in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region also experiences severe droughts.
Figure 18 illustrates the extent of drought-prone regions of Bangladesh. The following table gives the
top-ten drought prone districts by the areal extent and by severity. The top-ten drought prone districts
by the areal extent and by severity are presented in Table 20.

Table 20. Top-ten Drought Prone Districts by Areal Extent and by Severity

Source: Extracted from BCA Drought Maps (BARC-CIMMYT, 2006)

CCDB 53I
5.2.2. Current Dominant Cropping Patterns in Drought Prone Areas
The dominant cropping patterns in the very severe and severe drought prone areas are Rabi crop − B.
aus − Fallow, Rabi crop − B. aus − T. aman and Boro − Fallow − T. aman. While, Boro − Fallow − T.
aman and Fallow − Fallow − T. aman are dominant in the moderately drought-prone areas. In the
drought-prone High Barind Tract, the major cropping pattern is a single rainfed crop of T. aman grown
during the monsoon season followed by Tomato (as early rabi crop) − T. aus − Fallow. The main pattern
in the Level Barind Tract is Boro − Fallow − T. aman and the secondary patterns are Rabi crop −
Jute/Sesame/Chilli − T. aman, Rabi crop − Boro − T. aman; Fallow − T. aman, Rabi vegetables − Kharif
vegetables, Sugarcane; and Mango orchard. While in the North-Eastern Barind Tract Boro − T. aman
88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

DROUGHT PRONE REGIONS

BANGLADESH

26°0'0"N
26°0'0"N

INDIA
20 10 0 20 40 60 80
Kilometers

25°0'0"N
25°0'0"N

24°0'0"N
24°0'0"N

INDIA

INDIA
23°0'0"N
23°0'0"N

22°0'0"N
22°0'0"N

Legend
DROUGHT CLASS B A Y O F B ENGAL
No Drought
MYANMAR

Slight
21°0'0"N
21°0'0"N

Moderate
Severe
Very Severe
OTHERS
Forests
Major Rivers

88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

Figure 18. Drought Prone Areas of Bangladesh

Source: Based on BCA Drought Maps (BARC-CIMMYT, 2006)
I
54 CCDB
is the important pattern followed by Rabi crop − Boro − T. aman, Orchard; Sugarcane; Rabi vegetables
− Kharif vegetables, Betelvine, Rabi crop − Jute/Fallow − T. aman, Rabi crop − Boro − DTA (double
transplanted aman)/B. aman; Boro − Fallow, Rabi crop − T. aus − T. aman patterns. In the moderately
drought-prone Modhupur Tract, the dominant pattern is Boro − Fallow − Fallow and the secondary
patterns are Boro − B. aman/DTA, Boro − T. aman, Boro − Upland B. aus; Rabi crop/Fallow − T. aus −
T. aman. The Fallow − Shrimp − T. aman pattern is commonly practiced in the drought-prone areas of
the saline coastal region. In moderately and slightly affected drought-prone areas, Boro − Fallow −
Fallow pattern is common. The top-ten patterns under different drought classes by area is presented in
Table 21.
Table 21. Top-ten Cropping Patterns under Different Drought Classes

The Rabi crops that are grown in these regions include wheat, maize, lentil, mung bean, chickpea,
mustard, grass pea, potato, chili, tomato, beans, eggplant, winter vegetables cauliflower, cabbage,
radish, etc. In a recent study by Khan et al., (2015) similar types of cropping patterns were reported in
the drought affected region of the country (Table 22).

Table 22. Major Cropping Pattern in Drought Prone Areas of Bangladesh

Source: Khan et al., 2015

CCDB 55I
Drought caused by inadequate rainfall is the most important climatic anomaly which has impacted
agricultural production in the Asian subcontinent since the beginning of settled crop cultivation (Sinha
and Swaminathan, 1991). Because of an increase in the area under irrigation and the introduction of
early maturing crop varieties characterized by resilience in sowing dates, the impact of drought on
Bangladesh's food production has reduced to some extent. However, droughts will be more frequent
and more intense in Bangladesh due to climate change that will also aggravate the scarcity of water.

5.3. Floods
Being situated on the low-lying Ganges–Brahmaputra river delta and due to the many distributaries
flowing into the Bay of Bengal Bangladesh is a flood-prone country. Floods are annual phenomena,
with the most severe occurring during the months of July and August. Regular river floods inundate
about 20% of the country, increasing up to 68% in extreme years. The floods of 1988, 1998 and 2004
were particularly catastrophic, resulting in large-scale destruction and loss of lives. Approximately 37%,
43%, 52% and 68% of the country is likely to be inundated with floods of return periods of 10, 20, 50
and 100 years respectively (MPO, 1986). As reported by the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre of
the Bangladesh Water Development Board the worst floods that inundated more than 5.3 to about 10
Mha land area of the country were in 1974, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004, and 2007. Nearly 10 Mha or 68%
of the country was inundated in 1998 and 9 Mha or 61% in 1988 (Figure 19).

Area Coverage
120

100
Area Flooded (Thousand km2)

80

60

40

20

0
1954
1956
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1980
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014

Flood Year

Figure 19. Major Floods and Area Inundated, 1954 − 2014

Data Source: Annual Flood Report 2014 Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre Bangladesh Water Development Board

56 CCDB I
5.3.1. Types of Floods
Mainly four types of flood occur in Bangladesh at different magnitudes and intensities. These are
monsoon flood, river flood, flash flood and tidal flood. About 1.32 Mha and 5.05 Mha of the net cropped
area (NCA) is severely and moderately flood prone, respectively. The flood of 1998 inundated over
65% of the country’s land area for a period of over 60 days. Crop loss was enormous, besides the loss
of human life and infrastructure (Hussain and Iqbal, 2011) (Figure 20). The following are the different
types of floods that occur in Bangladesh:
• Monsoon floods caused by major rivers usually in the monsoon (during June−September).
• Rain floods caused by drainage congestion and heavy rains.
• Flash floods caused by the overflowing of hilly rivers in eastern and northern Bangladesh (in
April − May and September−November).
• Tidal floods or Coastal floods caused by storm surges.
Overflowing of hilly streams and rivers of eastern and northern regions of the country causes the flash
flood. The reason for rain flood is localized heavy rainfall and drainage congestions. Monsoon floods
are caused by the overflowing of major rivers in the floodplains. Besides tidal inundation, storm surges
aggravate the coastal floods. The nature and causes of floods are varied; therefore, the magnitude of
damage varies with timing, location, and intensity. Monsoon floods from the rivers are caused when the
major rivers rise slowly over a period of 10 to 20 days, or more. Overflow from rivers and tributaries
cause extensive damage, particularly when the water level of the three major rivers- the Ganges (called
the Padma in Bangladesh), the Brahmaputra (called the Jamuna in Bangladesh) and the Meghna rise
simultaneously. Heavy rainfall accompanied by the onrush of water from the upper catchments in India
very often cause a catastrophic flood in Bangladesh (Hossain et al., 1987; Anonymous, 2003). These
types of floods mainly affect rice crop at different growth stages.

Mirza et al., (2003) observed that future changes in the peak discharge of the Ganges River are
expected to be higher than those for the Brahmaputra River, the peak discharge of the Meghna River
also likely to increase considerably. Consequently, significant changes in the spatial extent and depths
of inundation in Bangladesh may happen. The mean flooded area may increase in the range of 20−
40% for a 6 °C rise in temperature. Changes in land inundation categories may introduce substantial
changes in rice agriculture and cropping patterns in Bangladesh. In future, 55% of the flooded area may
be deeply flooded. Greater changes may occur in the non−flood, moderately and deeply flooded land
categories. Cropping intensity and production of high yielding varieties of rice may be reduced
substantially.

According to the extent of damage inflicted, Bangladesh floods can be categorized as early, normal and
late. In particular, late dry season crops such as boro and the early kharif crops such as Aus and jute,
can be damaged by flooding; and later river floods and flash floods from adjoining hill areas can
damage transplanted Aman. On the other hand, early and mid upland rabi crops are not usually
affected. Disastrous flooding can be caused by river spilling over their banks, eroding land or depositing

CCDB 57I
fresh alluvium on neighboring land. These problems are extensive in the young sandbars along the
Ganges, Jamuna, and Tista river systems. Table 23 gives the top-ten flood prone districts by the areal
extent and by type of flood.
88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

FLOOD PRONE REGIONS

BANGLADESH

26°0'0"N
26°0'0"N

INDIA
20 10 0 20 40 60 80
Kilometers

25°0'0"N
25°0'0"N

24°0'0"N
24°0'0"N

INDIA

INDIA

23°0'0"N
23°0'0"N

22°0'0"N
22°0'0"N

B A Y O F B ENGAL
MYANMAR

Legend
21°0'0"N
21°0'0"N

FLOOD TYPES & CATEGORIES OTHERS

Not Flood Prone Low River Flooding Rivers and Bay of Bengal

Low Flash Flooding Moderate River Flooding District Boundary

Moderate Flash Flooding Severe River Flooding

Severe Flash Flooding Moderate Tidal Surge
Severe Tidal Surge

88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

Figure 20. Flood Prone Areas of Bangladesh

Source: Based on BCA Drought Maps (BARC-CIMMYT, 2006)
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 Table 23. Top-ten Flood Prone Districts by Areal Extent and by Different Type of Flood

Estmated by the author using GIS techniques

5.3.2. Current Dominant Cropping Patterns in flood prone areas

Currently in the river flood prone areas, Rabi crop − B. aus − Fallow, Rabi crop − B. aus − T. aman,
Fallow − Fallow − T. aman and Rabi crop − Mixed B. aus & aman are the major patterns. In the flash
flood prone areas Rabi crop − B. aus & aman, Boro − Fallow − T. aman and Boro − Fallow − Fallow are
the major patterns. While, Boro − Fallow − Fallow, Fallow − B. aman and Sugarcane patterns are
dominant in the tidal flood prone area. The extent of top-ten cropping patterns under different flood
types and classes are presented in Table 24. Khan et al., (2015) in a recent study reported similar types
of cropping patterns in the flood prone region of Bangladesh (Table 25).

Table 24. Top-ten Cropping Patterns under Different Flood Types and Classes

CCDB 59I
 Table 25. Major Cropping Pattern in Flood Prone Areas

Source: Khan et al., 2015

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6
AEZ Based
Inventory of
Current
Cropping Patterns

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6. AEZ Based Inventory of
Current Cropping Patterns
There is a broad range of agroecological environments in Bangladesh because of the differences in
climate, physiography, soils and hydrology. Superimposition of these information creates 30 generalized
agroecological regions with 88 subregions (Figure 1). All agroecological regions are not suitable for all
crops and cropping patterns. There are significant differences in crop yields and production among
these regions because crop production systems in Bangladesh are highly complex and diverse and are
influenced largely by physical, biological, climatological and socioeconomic factors.

6.1. Land Types

On most floodplains and valleys, cropping pattern is determined primarily by the seasonal flooding
regime, that is the dates when inundation begins and ends, the depth of inundation at peak levels, and
the risk of damage to crop by early, high or late floods. Seasonal flooding regimes are characterized by
means of inundation land types. Surface inundation, rainfall and temperature are the major
hydro-climatic factors that govern the distribution of crops in Bangladesh (Singh et al., 1991).
Therefore, to prepare an inventory and summary of cropping patterns practiced in different
agroecological zones of Bangladesh taking account of land types is important. The scheme of land type
classification is given in Table 26.
Table 26. Classification of Land Type

Source: AEZ Database System, 1988

Flooding and submergence are related to land type. The Land Resource Information (LRI) database of
Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) has identified five land types: very lowland, lowland,
medium lowland, medium highland, and highland in different agroecological regions. About 2.4% of the
area is under very lowland and 7.9% lowland land types, whereas area under medium lowland and
medium highland is 15.1% and 39.0%, respectively. About 35.6% land belongs to the highland
category. Very lowland and lowland areas are flooded for a long time (generally 2-3 months) and may
not be used for rice cultivation in the Aman season, except for growing local deepwater rice varieties.
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Medium lowland and a part of the medium highland areas are generally flooded for a shorter period (up
to 2 weeks), and these are the areas where new Sub1 rice varieties can be grown successfully, helping
farmers achieve high yield despite flooding and submergence. If the soils are permeable then
highlands are suitable for growing kharif or perennial upland crops. Transplanted Aus or Aman paddy
or both can be grown on this land type with impermeable soils or soils which can be made impermeable
by puddling and are bunded to retain rainwater on fields.

Medium Highlands with permeable soils are suitable for crops which are tolerant to shallow flooding,
such as broadcast or transplanted Aus paddy, transplanted Aman paddy, jute and early kharif crops
which mature before flooding starts. The late kharif and early Rabi dry land crops can be grown on soils
which drain in September-October.

Medium Lowlands are not very suitable for transplanted Aus or transplanted Aman paddy because it is
flooded too deeply. Common practiced it to grow mixed broadcast Aus and deepwater Aman, or tall
Aman seedlings are transplanted in the case of an early recession of floodwater. Dry land Rabi crops
are widely grown on this land type where it drains in October or November.

Lowlands are too deeply flooded for broadcast Aus or transplanted Aman cultivation. This land type is
where Deepwater Aman is commonly grown. However, in the dry season, cultivation of irrigated boro
paddy on such land now prevents the cultivation of deepwater Aman over a significant area. If
floodwater recedes before December, only then, dry land rabi crops can be grown on these lands.

Very lowlands are those normally inundated deeper than three meters (300 cm). The flooding depth is
too deep even for deepwater Aman. The depth is not the only factor that prevents deepwater Aman
cultivation but the flooding characteristics such as early or rapid flooding or wave action on large open
water bodies in the haors, which physically is a bowl or saucer shaped shallow depression, of the
Sylhet Basin. Very lowland generally is used for irrigated boro paddy, either HYV or local varieties. On
the other hand, the Bottomlands remain too wet for paddy to be sown through broadcasting.
Traditionally, these lands are used for growing local boro paddy, either rainfed or irrigated by traditional
low-lift irrigation devices. In a few other areas where flooding normally does not exceed about 150 cm,
very tall Aman paddy seedlings are transplanted early in the monsoon season.

Table 27 shows the area under different agroecological regions and their land type distributions.
Excluding the land areas occupied by homesteads and water bodies, about 34.17% of is Highland,
37.84% Medium Highland, and 14.34% and 10.40% are Medium lowlands, and Lowland, respectively.
In the High Barind Tract (93%), and Northern and Eastern Hills (92%), Old Himalayan Piedmont Plain
(58%), Madhupur Tract (56%), and Akhaura Terrace (55%) regions highland is the dominant land type.
The dominant land type of the Ganges Tidal Floodplain (78%), Active Tista Floodplain (72%), North−
Eastern Barind Tract (56%) Level Barind Tract (55%) and Tista Meander Floodplain (51%) and
Karatoya−Bangali Floodplain (44%) is medium highland. Medium lowland was the major land type in

CCDB 63I
the Old Meghna Estuarine Floodplain (33%), Low Ganges River Floodplain (31%), Middle Meghna
River Floodplain (29%), Lower Atrai Basin (21%), Active Brahmaputra-Jamuna Floodplain, Old
Brahmaputra Floodplain and Eastern Surma- Kusiyara Floodplain (20% each), and Sylhet Basin
(19%). Obviously, the lowland dominated AEZs are Arial Bil (72%), Sylhet Basin (66%), Lower Atrai
Basin (65%) Middle Meghna River Floodplain and Eastern Surma-Kusiyara Floodplain (36% each).

Table 27 also indicates that the Northern and Eastern Hills (12.5%), Ganges Tidal Floodplain (11.8%),
High Ganges River Floodplain (9.1%), Tista Meander Floodplain (6.5%), Young Meghna Estuarine
Floodplain (6.4%), Low Ganges River Floodplain (5.5%), Old Meghna Estuarine Floodplain (5.3%), Old
Brahmaputra Floodplain (5.0%), and Young Brahmaputra and Jamuna Floodplains (4.1%) together
account for more than 66.3% of the country's land area.

Single and double cropping of rice is predominant in rainfed wetland areas of Bangladesh (Figure 21).
After Aman rice, wheat, maize, barley, millet, pulses and oilseeds are grown with residual soil moisture.
In some areas, during the early part of the kharif-2 season before transplanting rice, crops such as jute,
maize, and mung bean are also grown. In areas where three- or four-crop patterns is practiced,
intercropping and relay cropping is commonly used particularly in the dry season. In rainfed dryland
areas, drought-resistant short-duration cultivars have been an important feature of crop production.
There is extensive use of mixed cropping, relay cropping and intercropping of annual species. Cropping
patterns may include up to six crops, with upland rice and maize as the most important commodities.
Farmers of the irrigated wetland areas use single, double or triple cropping patterns. The rice-rice
sequence is most important over a vast area. If improved short duration varieties are used, triple rice
cropping patterns are possible. Where low temperatures are a limiting factor during the dry winter
season, after one or two rice crops wheat, mustard, and potato are grown (Musa et al., 2013).

4
Rice-based
Wheat-based
Number of crops Year–1

3 Maize-based
Potato-based
Vegetable-based
2
Oilseeds-based
Pulses-based
1 Chickpea-based
Sugarcane-based
Jute-based
0
Rainfed Irrigated

Figure 21. Number of crops cultivated in different cropping systems under

rainfed and irrgated conditions
Bangladesh data extracted from Musa et al., 2013
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 Table 27. Distribution of Land Types in different Agroecological Regions of Bangladesh

I
CCDB 65
 I
66 CCDB
 I
CCDB 67
They also reported that, in the irrigated dryland areas, the kharif season crop is generally direct-seeded
rice. However, in some patterns maize, jute, sugarcane, cotton and mung bean are also grown. During
the rabi season wheat, potato, mustard, chili, and vegetables are grown under irrigation. Double
cropping is a common practice. In Bangladesh, potato, chickpea and wheat may be intercropped with
sugarcane during its early growth stage. In deepwater rice areas, single, double or triple cropping
patterns are practiced. Crops associated with these areas include rice, mustard, potato, jute, wheat,
millet, chickpea, grass pea, sesame, watermelon, tobacco, onion, and chili. In the tidal swamp areas,
major cropping patterns comprise rice, jute, sugarcane, lentil, sesame, coconut and betelnut.

6.2. Cropping Patterns by AEZ

Not much recent information is available from the secondary sources on cropping patterns by AEZs of
Bangladesh. Researchers made sporadic efforts and some of their research findings are as below.

Thomas et al., (2013) conducted a survey to identify dominant crop rotations or cropping patterns in
seven grouped AEZs of Bangladesh. They reported the top three crop rotation practiced in each AEZ. In
the Barind Tract, Floodplain, and Himalayan Plain, the most common cropping pattern is Aman – Boro
(48.69%, 23.25%, and 39.59%, respectively). While in the Beel and Haor Basin, a large majority of the
plots were cultivated for one season only. About 49.50% were cultivated for only Boro, while another
23.50% planted for only Aman paddy. During the monsoon season, the Beel and Haor Basin becomes
vast water bodies and submerge almost the entire haor area with a massive amount of water.

The main cropping pattern was Boro (34.83%) in the Modhupur Tract, followed by Aman – Boro (27.59%).
In the Northern and Eastern Hills, the most common crop rotation was Aus – Aman (39.89%), followed by
Aman (25.96%). Only 5.19% of plots had the Aman – Boro cropping pattern, the reason behind low boro
cultivation is because of lack of steady supply of surface water in the hills. In the Tidal Floodplain, Aman
is the most common crop rotation (17.22%), followed by Aman – Boro (12.74 %) (Table 28).
Table 28. Top Three Types of Crop Rotation, by AEZ

Source: Thomas et al., (2013)

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68 CCDB
In Bangladesh double cropping, triple cropping, quadruple cropping, and ratoon cropping are practiced
as sequential cropping. However, experimentation is being done on quadruple cropping technology
(Begum et al., 2013). The effort was made by Islam and Akheruzzaman, 2013 to generate information
on AEZ-based cropping patterns. About 52% of the net cropped area is covered by double cropping
and 19% area under triple cropping. Ratoon cropping is only practiced for sugarcane. Some sequential
cropping practiced in Bangladesh is given in Table 29. However, currently, the highest percentage of
net cropped area is under is under double cropping (47.89%), 30.08% single cropped, 21.76% triple
cropped and only 0.027% under quadruple cropped area (BBS, 2016).
Table 29. Some Important Cropping Patterns in Bangladesh

Source: Islam and Akheruzzaman, 2013

Jahan et al., 2016 carried out a study out to assess the most suitable crop rotation based on the dose
of organic and inorganic fertilizers as a source of plant nutrients. The potato – mung bean – T. aman
rice (P – M – R) crop rotation was applied to three agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Bangladesh (Bogra,
AEZ-25; Joydebpur, AEZ-28; Jessore, AEZ-11). The results from a two-year experiment indicated that
the yield of P-M-R was influenced by the nutrient management applied. Except for potato, higher yield
was obtained in the second year. The yield of potato and T. aman rice was highest when crop residues
were incorporated. In all locations, N (nitrogen) and K (potassium) were depleted in both years, but P
(phosphorus), S (sulphur), Zn (zinc) and B (boron) showed a positive balance. Even after completing
two cropping cycles and incorporated crop residues with different levels of nutrients, there was little
change in soil pH, organic matter (%), total N (%), P, K, S, Zn and B. However, in all three locations,
organic matter, total N, P, K, S, Zn and B increased in plots where crop residues was incorporated. The
soil test-based nutrient management choice that incorporated crop residues gave a higher net return
than other nutrient management combinations. These results indicate that soil test-based nutrient
management and an integrated plant nutrient system are suitable for the Potato – Mungbean – T. aman
rice crop rotation in AEZs of Bangladesh.
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CCDB 69
Besides secondary sources of information collected from available literature i.e., books, journals and
other forms of published materials on the world wide web, a survey was administered to obtain a set of
qualitative response from key informants and farmers.

Eighteen Upazila Agriculture Officers and one Sub-Assistant Agriculture Officer of the Department of
Agriculture Extension and two Project Coordinator of Feed the Future of Bangladesh Rice Value Chain
Project from 21 Upazilas of 18 districts were interviewed to generate data on dominant cropping
patterns and innovative practices. Out of 73 instances, 44 different cropping patterns were identified.
The dominant cropping patterns identified were the following: Vegetable − vegetable − vegetable, Boro
− Fallow − T. aman, mustard+Boro − T. aman, and Wheat − Jute − T. aman. The extent of the survey
included 14 AEZs of the country.

One hundred and twenty farmers in different vulnerable areas from 14 AEZs, 11 Upazilas and 10
districts were interviewed to gather information on cropping patterns and innovative practices. The
farmers reported 319 cropping patterns, 120 different patterns were identified but the following five
were dominant (166/319):

Boro (HYV) − Fallow − T. aman (Local), Boro (HYV) − Fallow − Fallow, Boro (Local) − Fallow − T. aman
(Local), Boro (HYV) − Aus (local) − Aman (Local) and Boro (HYV) − Fallow − T. aman (HYV).

Finally, the generated information was discussed with the relevant researchers and practitioners to
validate the findings and get valuable comments and feedback from them. Based on the information
provided by different respondents, available literature like journal articles, annual reports, relevant
Upazila Nirdeshikas (Upazila Land Utilization Guides), books, maps, etc. an inventory of cropping
patterns practiced in different Agroecological zones of Bangladesh has been compiled and presented
in Table 30. The effort was made to identify at least three to four dominant cropping patterns for each
of the agroecological regions.

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 Table 30. An Inventory of Cropping Patterns Practiced in Different Agroecological Regions of Bangladesh

I
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72 CCDB
Note: AEZ 24 (St. Martin's Coral Island) was not included in the study area.
Rabi crops mainly include DS= Dry seeded
7
Development of New
Cropping Systems and
Patterns Based on
Current and Innovative
Practices in other
Countries Around the
Tropic of Cancer

I
CCDB 53
7. Development of New Cropping Systems and Patterns
Based on Current and Innovative Practices in other
Countries Around the Tropic of Cancer
7.1. Countries and Regions Around the Tropic of Cancer
This study looked into the current and innovative research activities related cropping systems and
cropping pattern practiced in other countries or regions around the tropic of cancer having climate
analog conditions like Bangladesh. The countries and regions that in focus are West Bengal, Bihar, of
India, Myanmar, Cambodia, Northern Thailand, North Vietnam, and South China. The study also
reviewed research conducted in Bangladesh to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture.
Validated the differences and appreciated commons to suggest some new and innovative cropping
pattern for Bangladesh despite there are a lot of hydrological/social/policy differences.

The two major regions around the Tropic of Cancer are the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and the Great
Mekong Subcontinent (GMS) covering several countries and regions of South and Southeast Asia that
have climatic conditions analogous to Bangladesh. The IGP cover some 700,000 km2 in Bangladesh,
India, Nepal, and Pakistan and are home to nearly one billion people. While the Great Mekong
Subcontinent (GMS) countries are Cambodia, the People's Republic of China (specifically Yunnan
Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region), Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR),
Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The northwest and central parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of South Asia are among the most
productive agricultural regions of the world. But production is becoming unsustainable due to depletion
or degradation of soil and water resources, rising production costs, decreasing input use efficiency, and
increasing environmental pollution. In contrast, cereal production systems in the eastern IGP are
largely traditional, with low yields and farm income.

Agriculture in Southeast Asia is shifting from traditional subsistence farming to modern commercial
farming practices. Although progression of individual countries and subnational regions are massively
different, they are generally following a path of intensification, specialization, increased agrochemical
use and mechanization. Trends observed in the more developed nations, such as Thailand and China,
are likely to emerge in the less developed countries in future (Gonsalves et al., 2015).

7.2. Cereal Systems of South Asia

Food security and income in south Asian subcontinent come from major cereals such as rice, wheat,
and maize. These crops are grown either as a monoculture or in rotations in tropical and subtropical
environments of the subcontinent. The predominant cropping systems in the irrigated and favorable
rainfed lowland areas are rice-rice (R-R), rice-wheat (R-W), and rice-maize (R-M). Rice-rice is common
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in a tropical climate with distinct dry and wet seasons such as in South India, and in sub-tropical areas
with mild cool winter climates such as in Bangladesh, Eastern India, and Eastern Nepal. In the
sub-tropical areas of the IGP of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan Rice-wheat system is
extensively practiced while R-M system is widespread in tropical, subtropical and warm temperate
areas. However, R-M system is less extensive compared to R-W or R-R when the total area under
these cereal systems is considered. The cropping seasons in the IGP region is similar to that of
Bangladesh and the crops that are grown is also similar.

Rice (called transplanted Aman or T. aman in Bangladesh) is the main crop in summer while a wide
range of crops, including rice (called boro in Bangladesh, eastern India, and eastern Nepal), wheat,
maize, winter pulses (chickpea, lentil, field peas), potatoes, and mustard are grown in rabi or winter
season. In the pre-kharif or spring season, short-duration crops such as maize, pulses (mung bean,
cowpea), and rice (called Aus in Bangladesh) are grown. All three major double-crop systems (R-R,
R-W, R-M) often include an additional crop such as potato, lentil, chickpea, mustard, etc. in rabi, and
jute, maize, rice, mung bean, cowpea, etc. during pre-kharif or spring season. The area under major
cropping systems in four south Asian countries is presented in Table 31 (Timsina et al., 2010).

Table 31. Area (Mha) Under Major Cropping Systems in Four South Asian Countries

Source: modified and updated from Y.S. Saharawat, unpublished data, Mayee et al., 2008; Timsina et al., 2010

The analysis of seasonal cropping pattern by Panigrahy et al., (2010) showed that, during kharif season,
in IGP states of India rice is the major crop covering about 65.5% of the agricultural area of the plain
(Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar (part of the Middle Gangetic Plains) and West Bengal (part of
the Lower Gangetic Plains). Other major kharif crops include sugarcane, and pearl millet in most of the
unirrigated areas of Bihar. During rabi season, wheat is the major crop of the IGP except for West
Bengal. About 67% of the agricultural area of the IGP is cropped with rice. Crops like mustard in West
Bengal, potato in Bihar and West Bengal, and pulses in West Bengal are also the major rabi crops.

I
CCDB 75
They also reported that the summer cropping pattern in eastern Bihar and West Bengal where summer
rice and jute are grown. In most of the Indo Gangetic Plains, area is occupied by the rice-wheat rotation
which constitutes about 40% of the agricultural area followed by Rice-Fallow-Fallow and Maize-Wheat.
The northeast corner of Bihar has an intense cropping system with three crops a year with the rotation
of rice-wheat-other. In West Bengal, most of the area grows only a single rice crop in a year. The
intense cropping areas of West Bengal are the districts of Murshidabad, Bardhaman, Nadia and
Medinipur, where rice-potato/mustard-rice/jute is followed. In the sugarcane dominated regions, the
three seasons were merged to form the “Sugarcane-based” cropping system area.

It was reported by Yadav and Subba Rao (2001) that in West Bengal, Rice-Wheat, Rice-Pulses,
Rice-Jute, Rice-Potato, and Rice-Vegetables are the major cropping system. While Rice-Wheat,
Rice-Fallow, Maize-Wheat, Rice-Lathyrus, Rice-Mustard, Rice-Sugarcane, Maize-Fallow, and
Maize-Maize systems in Bihar. A recent Manual on Integrated Farming Systems edited by Gangwar et
al. (2010) documented that in West Bengal the major crops and cropping systems are winter rice or
boro rice-summer rice or aman rice, winter rice-mustard-jute, winter rice-potato-jute. In Bihar the
dominant systems are rice-wheat, rice-pulses, rice-maize-pigeon pea+black gram/green
gram/sesame/ sorghum.

It was observed by Hossain (2012) that even though there is a gradual erosion of biodiversity with the
spread of modern varieties, farmers still grow a large number of local varieties. The number of varieties
grown in Bangladesh in different seasons is aman 535, boro 261 and aus 295, and in West Bengal
(aman 166 and boro 60). Nevertheless, a few varieties cover a large proportion of area. Figure 22
shows the coverage of major rice varieties by districts in Bangladesh. The dominant varieties according
to area coverage by seasons in Bangladesh and in West Bengal, India are presented in Table 32.

Table 32. Doninant varieties by area and seasons in Bangladesh and

in West Bengal, India

Source: Hossain, 2012

Out of 71 modern rice varieties released by the different institutions in Bangladesh, only five dominate
during the boro and aman seasons. The popular aman rice varieties, BR10, BR11, and Guti Swarna,
were released in 1980 while the popular boro rice varieties released in 1994, are BRRI dhan28 and
BRRI dhan29. Therefore it is evident that rice varieties released 30 years ago are still being adopted
and the adoption of old varieties is high during the aman season (Islam et al., 2012). On the other hand,
during the aman season, BR11 dominates in selected submergence-prone areas while Guti Swarna
and Swarna occupy more than 95% of the total modern variety (MV) rice area at selected

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drought-prone sites. In contrast, BR10, a very popular rice variety in the southern region, is the
predominant variety in the saline-affected areas of Satkhira district (Table 33). In the aman season,
BR11 was the most popular variety, followed by Swarna, covering about 27% and 12% of the area,
respectively. In the boro season, the most popular variety was BRRI dhan29, followed by BRRI dhan28,
and these two varieties covered about 60% of the boro area. In case of aus, it was found that no single
variety was largely dominating as with aman and boro varieties. In this case, the most popular variety
was BRRI dhan28, followed by Haitta (local variety), covering only 9% and 8% of the aus area. The
findings revealed that, although BRRI dhan28 is basically a boro variety, it is also grown as a popular
variety in the aus season (Table 34). However, the yield of BRRI dhan28 in the aus season was
considerably lower than in the boro season (Hossain and Jaim, 2012).

Table 33. Percent of MV Rice Area by Generation and Season

aNew generation, MVs occupy 59% of the area grown to MV rice during the aus season in Rajshahi.
Source: Islam et al., 2012

Table 34. Concentration of Rice Varieties at the Regional Level in Aman and Boro/Aus Seasons

aThe numbers in parentheses indicate the percentage of rice area

Source: Hossain and Jaim, 2012

I
CCDB 77
 88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E 88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

Area under aman, BR11 (%) Area under aman, Swarna (%)

26°0'0"N
26°0'0"N

26°0'0"N
26°0'0"N

INDIA INDIA
25 12.5 0 25 50 75 100 25 12.5 0 25 50 75 100
Kilometers Kilometers

25°0'0"N
25°0'0"N
25°0'0"N
25°0'0"N

24°0'0"N
24°0'0"N
24°0'0"N
24°0'0"N

INDIA INDIA

INDIA INDIA

23°0'0"N
23°0'0"N
23°0'0"N
23°0'0"N

22°0'0"N
22°0'0"N
22°0'0"N
22°0'0"N

Legend B A Y O F B ENGAL Legend B A Y O F B ENGAL

Aman BR11 Aman Swarna

% of area under % of area under

MYANMAR
modern varieties
MYANMAR

modern varieties

21°0'0"N
21°0'0"N
21°0'0"N
21°0'0"N

0-10
0-10
10-25 10-25
25-50 25-50
>50 >50
Rivers and Bay of Bengal Rivers and Bay of Bengal
88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E
88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E 88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

Area under boro, BRRI dhan29 (%) Area under boro, BRRI dhan28 (%)
26°0'0"N

26°0'0"N
26°0'0"N

26°0'0"N

INDIA INDIA
25 12.5 0 25 50 75 100 25 12.5 0 25 50 75 100
Kilometers Kilometers
25°0'0"N

25°0'0"N
25°0'0"N

25°0'0"N
24°0'0"N

24°0'0"N
24°0'0"N

24°0'0"N

INDIA INDIA

INDIA INDIA
23°0'0"N

23°0'0"N
23°0'0"N

23°0'0"N
22°0'0"N

22°0'0"N
22°0'0"N

22°0'0"N

Legend Legend
Dry season, BR29 B A Y O F B ENGAL
Dry season, BR28 B A Y O F B ENGAL
% of area under % of area under
MYANMAR

MYANMAR

modern varieties modern varieties

0-10 0-10
21°0'0"N

21°0'0"N
21°0'0"N

21°0'0"N

10-25 10-25
25-50 25-50
>50 >50
Rivers and Bay of Bengal Rivers and Bay of Bengal
88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E 88°0'0"E 89°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 91°0'0"E 92°0'0"E

Figure 22. Coverage of Major Rice Varieties by Districts in Bangladesh

Source: Hossain, 2012

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A field trial was conducted by Hossain et al., (2011) at the Regional Wheat Research Centre of BARI,
Rajshahi (AEZ 11) to evaluate the comparative agronomic performance and economic return of
four-crop based cropping patterns against T. aman – Fallow – Boro – Fallow as Control. It was found
that the three four crops based cropping patterns- CP1 = T. aman (Binadhan-7) – Mustard (BARI
Sarisha-14) – Boro (BRRI dhan28) – T. aus (Parija); CP2 = T. aman – Potato (Diamont) – Boro – T. aus;
and CP3 = T. aman – Mustard (BARI Sarisha-15) – Mungbean (BARI mung-6) – T. aus are
agronomically feasible and economically profitable compared to the existing T. aman – Fallow – Boro
– Fallow pattern. However, pattern CP2 was found the most profitable one. Also due to growing four
crops in a year on the same piece of land cropping intensity and productivity.

The same patterns were tested at the Central Research Station of BARI (AEZ 28) for three consecutive
years (2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14) by Mondal et al., (2015). They reported that the highest rice
equivalent yield (REY) 34.10, 34.02 and 33.36 t ha-1 was obtained from the cropping pattern CP2 in
2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14, respectively and it was followed by pattern CP1 and CP3. The highest
average gross return (BDT 500,469 ha-1) and net return (BDT 263,773 ha-1) were obtained from CP2
and it was followed by CP3 but the highest average B/C ratio (2.89) was obtained from the cropping
pattern CP3 followed by CP2 (2.11) due to lower cost of production than in the former one. They
recommended four-crop based patterns for higher productivity, soil enrichment and economic benefit
besides creating more employment opportunity.

7.2.1. Cambodian Agriculture

Rice is the dominant crop in Cambodian agriculture as more than 80 percent of Cambodian farmers
grow rice. It occupies more than 80 percent of cultivated land and is the most important agricultural
export commodity. Rice-based farming systems have been the backbone of Cambodia's agriculture,
with a long history, it remains as the dominant crop even today. The farmers of Cambodian have rich
experience in rice production. Adapting to different local soil and weather conditions, and they have
developed a variety of rice-based farming systems such as rainfed lowland rice, rainfed upland rice,
deepwater rice, and irrigated dry season rice. Furthermore, it the main drivers in agricultural growth and
contributing nearly 50 percent of total crop growth in the 1994-2006 period (MAFF, Various years.
Agricultural Statistics). In recent years rice has become the most important agricultural export
commodity (CDRI, 2011). Cassava and maize are often upland crops, which serve both as staples for
the poor to support their food security and as cash crops for exports. Upland represents 35 to 40
percent of Cambodia’s total arable land, and the population density is still much lower in upland
regions. Rice also has contributed to more than 10 percent of the country's total export value in 2007
and has surpassed the country's traditional agricultural export commodities such as rubber and forestry
products (IMF, 2009).

7.2.2. Thailand Agriculture

Like Cambodia rice has long been the traditional food crop and the main export product of Thailand.
Though declining in relative importance, it still occupies about 55% of the total arable land. Over 80%

CCDB 79I
of the Thai population eats rice as their main meal, with annual per capita consumption totaling 100.8
kg. Maize is one of five major crops grown in the uplands of Thailand, along with rice, cassava, sugar
cane, and rubber trees (http://www.irri.org/science/cnyinfo/thailand.asp). In the Central Plain of
Thailand, two or three crops of rice area are grown annually in the most fertile region of the country with
the largest irrigated area. The other major crops are fruit trees, vegetable crops, and field crops. The
cropping systems under irrigation are wet season rice followed by dry season rice or soybean,
mungbean, peanut, sweet potato, watermelon, sesame, and some vegetable crops such as sweet
corn, baby corn, yard long bean, pumpkin, cucumber, etc. For uplands, the cropping systems are
corn-sorghum, sesame-mungbean, mungbean-corn, etc. During the last few years, fruit-tree based
cropping systems have been practiced in this region. Livestock and fisheries have also been integrated
with crop enterprises. The typical cropping systems in this area, therefore, are rice-based cropping
systems and field crop-based cropping systems.

In the semi-arid plateau with sandy and infertile soil of the Northeast Thailand, rainfed rice is mainly
grown once a year. Cassava, jute, and mulberry for sericulture are grown as dryland cash crops. For
the lowland under irrigation, wet season rice is grown followed by dry season rice or soybean,
mungbean, peanut, jute, sesame and some vegetable crops. In addition, diversification has also been
carried out in this region, especially with such fruit trees as mango, sweet tamarind, banana, papaya,
etc., as well as livestock and rice-fish culture in rainy season as alternative agriculture production
enterprises. The typical cropping systems, therefore, are rice-based cropping systems and field
crop-based cropping systems.

7.2.3. Myanmar Agriculture

The Tropic of Cancer divides the country into two main climatic regions, namely the tropical south
comprising over two-thirds of Myanmar, and the sub-tropical, temperate north which comprises the
remaining one-third of the country. Rice is the key crop in the agriculture of Myanmar and has great
significance for the national economy. In Myanmar, 53% of the cropping patterns are rice-based, and
47% are upland cropping patterns. In upland crop pattern, 16% is sesame-based and 6% was peas and
bean-based cropping patterns. Rice followed by peas and beans pattern can be found in all States and
Divisions. Pulses have become important in the rural economy of the country, not only for their
income-earning potential but also for their dietary contribution and their agronomic contribution within
a crop rotation system where little inorganic fertilizer is available. The oilseed is the second most
important crop after paddy in the diet of the people of Myanmar. Consumption of groundnut oil is
estimated to account for 90 to 95% of total edible oil and remaining 5% to 10% is sesame oil.

Seasonal vegetables such as tomato, onion, garlic and chili also play an important role in the Myanmar
diet and have high demand within the domestic market (CSO, 2001). Cropping systems and patterns
vary according to agroclimatic conditions within Myanmar. In irrigated areas, double or triple cropping
via, for example, paddy-paddy or paddy-pulses-paddy patterns dominate. In the Dry Zone and other
upland rainfed areas, mixed cropping or intercropping of pigeon pea with sesame, peanut or other
pulses are being practiced (FAO, 2009; Baroang, 2013).

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The majority of paddy areas grown in Myanmar use high yield variety (HYV) seeds with very little hybrid
seeds. Moreover, about half of the maize areas are sown with hybrid maize seeds and 28% used HYV
seeds. Farmers are currently sowing local maize varieties in up to 18% of total maize cultivated areas.
(FAO/WFP 2009 Crop and Food Security Assessment). Myanmar’s dependence on rainfed agriculture
makes the country extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts such as drought, flooding, high
temperatures and prolonged dry spells. Such events cause widespread crop failure and food and water
insecurity, and ultimately affect the sustainability of rural livelihoods. The conservation of indigenous
rice varieties and breeding new, high yielding and climate-resilient rice varieties is a necessity for
successful adaptation and food security, particularly in Myanmar’s rainfed lowlands and hilly and high
altitudinal uplands.

7.2.4. Vietnam Agriculture

Irrigated areas lie mainly in the Red River Delta of the north and Mekong River Delta of the south. In
the Red River Delta, rice is cultivated with other upland crops in various cropping patterns. In the
lowland irrigated areas, two rice crops or two rice crops plus one upland winter crop are planted. In the
Mekong River Delta, most irrigated areas are planted to two rice crops: winter-spring and
summer-autumn and in some areas three rice crops per year are grown. The yield in the irrigated
systems reaches 6-7 t ha-1 in the dry season (spring) and 4-5 t ha-1 in the wet season (summer) water
level is as deep as 300 cm at flowering time. But since 1983, these areas were converted to irrigated
areas with 2-3 rice crops per year when the new canals were constructed. In the Mekong Delta at
present, there is some 0.60 Mha of medium-deepwater with floodwater depths of 30-100 cm. Most of
the rice is rainfed and is unlikely to be replaced by irrigated rice because of the limitation of freshwater
resources. Traditional photoperiod sensitive varieties are grown, with a yield ranging from 2.5 to 4.5 t
ha-1. In shallow rainfed lowlands, improved varieties of medium growth duration (130-150 days) are
planted yielding 5-6 t ha-1. The yield is usually affected by the water depth. A sampling survey showed
that the average yield was 3.05 t ha-1 for <40 cm water depth, 2.76 t ha-1 for 40-80 cm and 2.14 t ha-1
for depths around 80 cm.

Upland rice in Vietnam is grown in about 0.45 Mha. This comprises 8 percent of the total rice area in
the country. It is grown by 54 ethnic groups of which 50 groups practice shifting cultivation. The total
affected area represents about 8 million ha where some 3 million ethnic minorities live. The usual range
of annual rainfall is 1,400-1,800 mm but it is very erratic and droughts are common. Slash-and-burn
shifting cultivation is the predominant cultivation system. Rice is planted using a stick with 5-10
seeds/hole and holes are dug 20-30 cm apart. Almost no fertilizers or chemicals are used. The yield
varies from 0.6 to 2.0 ha-1. Traditional rice mostly sticky varieties of maturity duration 130-160 day are
planted. After 2-3 years, the farmers abandon the land and move to a new location for planting. Land
degradation and poor soil fertility are serious problems in the upland ecosystem (Bong, 2000).

CCDB 81I
In recent years, Dong Thap, along with other southern provinces, planted one cash crop and two rice
crops on the same field each year. The rotating cash crops include corn, soybean or sesame. The
rotating of cash crops and rice crops on the same field yields higher profits than cultivating three rice
crops a year, according to the province's report. Crop rotation will also help replenish the soil and
reduce disease outbreaks compared to rice on the same field. However, many attendees at the
meeting expressed their concerns about guaranteed outlets for rotated crops.

7.2.5. China Agriculture

Based on 2001 estimates China’s arable is about 1.4 million square kilometers (15.4% of total land
area) of which 525,800 square kilometers of land are irrigated. About 1.2% percent (some 116,580
square kilometers) is planted to permanent crops. Intensive agricultural techniques are used to
produce food that is sufficient to feed the world’s largest population and some surplus is exported
(China: Geography. http://data.mongabay.com/reference/new_profiles/239ch.html. Retrieved on
22-09-2016). Around three-quarters of the country's cultivated area is used for food crops. Rice is the
most important crop, grown on about 25% of the cultivated area. The greater part of rice is grown south
of the Huai River, in the Zhu Jiang delta, and in the Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan provinces
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_China#Food_crops). On the other hand, the North China
Plain (NCP), the largest agricultural production area in China, provides more than 50% of the nation’s
wheat and 33% of its maize production (State Statistics Bureau, 1999) with a currently dominant wheat
– maize double cropping system. The NCP is characterized by a summer monsoon climate with
concentrated summer (July-September) rainfall. (Wang et al., 2008). Four dominant crop systems were
categorized (winter wheat – summer maize, winter wheat– summer maize – spring maize, cotton, and
vegetables (Pan et al., 2014). China is also the leading producer of cotton, which is grown all over, but
especially in the areas of the North China Plain, the Yangtze River delta, the middle Yangtze valley, and
the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Other fiber crops include ramie, flax, jute, and hemp
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_China#Fiber_crops).

Economic growth in most rice-producing areas in Asia has caused a relative shift of labor from
agricultural to nonagricultural sectors and has led to a rise in real labor costs in rural areas. The labor
shortage, in turn, has led to the use of labor-saving technologies such as herbicides, direct seeding and
tillage and harvesting machines (Naylor, 1994; Barker and Dawe, 2002).

7.3. Conservation Agriculture Based Crop Management

A remarkable change in the production variables of modern farming over traditional plow-based farming
has occurred (Table 35). Still, the most agronomic practices revolved around tillage and labor-intensive
farming. Declining soil organic carbon (SOC) status has been the main shift in agriculture from
'traditional animal-based subsistence' to 'intensive chemical and tractor based' agriculture that
multiplied problems associated with sustainability of natural resources. The SOC concentration in most
cultivated soils of India is less than 5 g kg-1 compared with 15 to 20 g kg-1 in uncultivated virgin soils.
Low SOC content is attributed to plowing, removal of crop residue and other bio-solids, and mining of

I
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soil fertility (Lal, 2004). In many intensively cropped areas, a large acreage of cultivated lands shows
fertility fatigue and deficiency of micronutrients. This adds to the challenge of making farming more
profitable.

Table 35. Dynamism of Production Variables Changing Scenario

Source Jat et al., 2011

Globally, it was difficult to convince the farming community to swing away from their mindset that
conventional farming practice was the only way to improve farm productivity to accept that severely
reduced or minimum/zero tillage was more advantageous. Conservation agriculture (CA) is being
widely accepted as a vital component
of the overall strategy for enhancing
productivity, improving environmental
quality and preserving natural
Minimum resources for food security and
mechanical soil poverty alleviation in such areas.
disturbance Basically, CA includes drastically
reduced tillage, sufficient retention of
crop residues on the soil surface, use
of economically feasible diversified
Cropping
Maintenance crop rotations, and practice possible
system
of permanent reduction traffic (Kassam and
diversity, crop
soil covers Friedrich, 2009). The elements of
rotations
conservation agriculture is depicted in
Figure 23.

Figure 23. Elements of Conservation Agriculture

Source: http://www.iperca.org/e-learning/agrarian_transition/m1/co/CA_rappel.html

CCDB 83I
Conservation tillage (CT) and conservation agriculture are not synonymous. CT refers to
reduced/minimum tillage with some residues left on the surface. In CA tillage is avoided or drastically
reduced and adopt efficient crop rotations. Zero-till drill simply disturbs the soil in a narrow slit just to place
seed in the soil and hence minimal till system is very close to no-till system practiced in conservation
agriculture. Soil conservation (SC), conservation tillage (CT) and resource conservation technologies
(RCTs) are also not synonymous to conservation agriculture. All RCTs may not form part of the CA.

7.3.1. Conservation Agriculture Based Technologies in South Asia

Conservation agriculture has both agricultural and environmental benefits but due to lack of knowledge
on the effects and interactions of key CA components which affect crop production hinders its adoption.
The adoption of CA is increasing globally, but in some regions it is either slow or nonexistent (Farooq
and Siddique, 2015).

No-till or zero tillage agriculture is part of the practice of conservation agriculture. The major benefits of
zero-till technology (Gupta et al., 2007a, 2007b, Saharawat et al., 2010) are the following (i) reduced
labor, machinery and fuel costs (ii) allows timely planting of kharif and rabi crops, resulting in higher
yields (iii) lower weed density (iv) reduced irrigation and saving up to 15−20% of irrigation water (vi)
improved input use efficiency because of better crop stands due to good seed and better
fertilizer/nutrients management and (vii) carbon sequestration in soil due to reduced crop residue
burning (Phillips et al., 1980) and reduced oxidation of soil carbon.

Jat et al., (2011) reported that wheat in rice-wheat cropping system grown with no-till or zero till
technology has been addressing the several issues of sustainability and its success has stimulated the
farmers to uptake the double no-till practice for long-term sustainability of the system.

Several studies conducted in South Asia (Gupta et al., 2003; Malik et al., 2005; Gupta and Seth, 2007;
Gupta and Sayre, 2007; Gupta et al., 2010, Jat et al., 2010) across various production systems under
varied ecologies have shown the potential benefits of CA on resource conservation, use efficiency of
external inputs, yield enhancement and adaptation to terminal heat effects.

Laser guided land leveling practiced over 1.5 Mha in South Asia account for 25−30% water saving and
also improve yields by 5−15% along with other benefits (Jat et al., 2009a, 2009b). Zero tillage in cereal
systems have assisted in reducing production costs by saving in fuel, water, improving system
productivity and soil health (Gupta et al., 2003; Malik et al., 2005; Gupta and Seth, 2007, Gupta and
Sayre, 2007; Jat et al., 2009a; Saharawat et al., 2009, 2010). The results across IGP suggests that
double no-till with crop residue retention gave higher system productivity over conventional and zero till
without residues. Raised bed planting technology has the prospect for diversification through
intensification and water saving (Jat et al., 2005, 2006). Residue retention on the soil surface helps in
improving soil health in zero till systems (Sharma et al., 2008) reducing GHG emission equivalent to
nearly 13 t ha-1.

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Jat et al., (2014) concluded from their seven years experiments on CA in a rice–wheat rotation of
Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia that water, energy and labor scarcity, increasing cost of
production, diminishing farm profits and uncertain weather events are major challenges faced by the
farmers under intensive tillage based conventional rice–wheat (RW) production system.

To address these challenges, conservation agriculture based crop management practices are being
developed, adapted and promoted in the region. They evaluated agronomical productivity and
economical profitability of various combinations of tillage, crop establishment and residue management
practices in rice–wheat rotation of Eastern IGP of India. Long-term trial was initiated in 2006 having
seven combinations of tillage, crop establishment and residue management in rice–wheat rotation.
These consisted of conventional till puddled transplanted rice followed by conventional tilled wheat
(CTR–CTW); CTR followed by zero tilled wheat (CTR–ZTW); direct seeded rice followed by wheat both
on permanent raised beds (PBDSR–PBW); zero-till direct seeded rice followed by CTW
(ZTDSR–CTW); ZTDSR followed by ZTW without residues (ZTDSR–ZTW); ZTDSR followed by ZTW
with residues (ZTDSR–ZTW + R) and unpuddled transplanted rice followed by ZTW (UpTPR–ZTW). All
these treatments were completely randomized and replicated thrice within a block.

The higher grain yields and economical advantage of CA was realized after 2-3 years as the adaptation
of CA based component technologies evolved over the time. In medium term, we found CA based
systems to be agronomically and economically superior to CT based systems for rice–wheat rotation in
a smallholder production system of Eastern IGP of South Asia. Hence, CA based RW production
system is one of the pathways for improving productivity, income and food security while sustaining the
natural resources in smallholder production systems of Eastern IGP.

Conservation Agricultural practices have been widely adopted in tropics/subtropical and temperate
regions of the world for rain-fed and irrigated systems. Acreage of CA is increasing progressively to cover
about 108 Mha (Derpsch and Friedrich, 2009) that accounts for about 7% of the world arable land area.
Recent estimates showed that adoption of CA-based RCTs practices in south Asia covers nearly 3.9
Mha. However, CA is an innovation process of developing appropriate CA implements, crop cultivars, etc.
for iterative guidance and fine-tuning to modify crop production technologies (Anon., 2010).

7.4. Climate Change

Prof Dr Martin J. Kropff (2014), Rector Magnificus Wageningen University and Member of the
Consortium Board of the CGIAR wrote that "Climate is changing. We see the climatic changes as
predicted by models from the 1990s coming true today, and these changes will continue into the future
according to recent predictions. The latest 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) states that cumulative emissions of CO2, largely determine global mean surface
warming by the late 21st century and beyond, and that most aspects of climate change will persist for
many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This will continue to impact on many, if not all,
aspects of human life, including the provision of sufficient and safe food. We face changes that require
CCDB 85I
us to adapt our agricultural systems to higher temperatures and more extreme weather conditions. We
need to do this in an era where the world population will increase to 9-10 billion in 2050, with major
increases in developing countries. These enormous challenges require new resilient agri-food systems
that will provide us with enough food while preserving our natural resources and protecting the
environment. They need to produce more than they do today, as we face an increased demand of 70%
as a result of a growing population and changing diets by 2050. To meet the challenges, we must
explore options for adapted systems."

Globally, about 70% of all freshwater withdrawals are used for agriculture, the largest water consumer.
Climate change impacts on water resources through changes in precipitation, snowfall, soil moisture,
river flow and groundwater recharge translate into impacts on agricultural production. Demand for food
will double over next 50-80 years as a consequence of current trends in population growth, rising
incomes, and changing diets (Hoanh et al., 2015). Climate-induced changes in precipitation and water
availability, will impact the extent and productivity of both irrigated and rainfed agriculture across the
globe. Therefore, to reduce the vulnerability of the poor in developing countries, agricultural water
management should be improved significantly.

Global warming poses a threat dependent on its magnitude to human society by changing the
agro-environment and agriculture. For Bangladesh, Agrawala et al., (2003) showed increases of 1.1,
1.6, and 2.7 °C of winter temperature (December to February) for the years of 2030, 2050, and 2070
respectively, while rainfall is projected to decrease by 1.2, 1.7, and 3.0 % for the same corresponding
years. Advanced general circulation models (GCMs) such as the Canadian Climate Centre Model
(CCCM), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and the United Kingdom Meteorological
office (UKMO) estimated increases of 2-4, 4-6, and 2-4 °C respectively, in the winter season air
temperature in Bangladesh for the doubling of carbon dioxide (Mitchell et al., 1990). In the same study,
a 1 mm day-1 decrease in precipitation (to 2 mm day-1) was predicted.

To meet these challenges efforts are being made all over the world. As pointed out, we need to adapt
our agricultural systems to combat the detrimental effects on higher temperatures and more extreme
weather conditions. Therefore, we need to understand and the impacts of climate change on crops and
find out means to adapt or build resilience.

Based on data since 1950, evidence suggests that climate change has altered the magnitude and
frequency of some extreme weather and climate events in some regions of the global already. It is
predicted that in the next two or three decades, the expected increase in climate extremes will probably
be relatively small compared to the normal year-to-year variations in such extremes. Nevertheless, as
climate change becomes more intense, the range of climate extremes will become increasingly
important as will play a more significant role in disaster impacts. The frequency of hot days is likely to
increase further in the future (high confidence). More frequent and heavy rainfall days are projected
over parts of South Asia (low confidence). Extreme rainfall events will be likely to occur where the
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centres of tropical cyclones make landfall in South Asia. An increase in extreme rainfall events related
to monsoons will be very likely in the region.

7.4.1. Temperature Trends

In general warming has occurred, at a country scale, across most of South Asia over the 20th century
and into the 2000. There were more temperature extremes (high confidence). Records indicate that it
is likely that the numbers of cold days and nights have decreased and the numbers of warm days and
nights have increased across most of Asia since about 1950. Heat wave frequency has increased since
the middle of the 20th century in large parts of Asia. Projected temperature trends for South Asia
indicate that compared to the average in the 20th century, average annual temperatures could rise by
more than 2 °C by the mid-21st century and exceed 3 °C by the late-21st century under a high-emissions
scenario. Under RCP2.6, average temperatures could rise by less than 2 °C in the 21st century, except
at higher latitudes, which could be up to 3 °C warmer. Projections indicate that the oceans in subtropical
and tropical regions of Asia will warm under all emissions scenarios and will warm most at the surface.

Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to the projected impacts of climate change, as these are likely to
increase the already high risk of disasters and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Climate change will
cause changes, such as- the average surface temperature of the Indian sub-continent is very likely to
change from 1-1.5 °C and 4-5 °C during 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 under RCP 2.6 – Low emissions and
RCP 8.5 – High emissions scenarios respectively. While the change in average precipitation (1986-2005
to 2081-2100) would increase by +10% and +20-30% under RCP 2.6 – Low emissions and RCP 8.5 –
High emissions scenarios respectively (IPCC, 2014; Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report).

7.4.2. Rainfall Trends

Lack sufficient observational records for most areas of the Asian region limits to draw conclusions
about trends in annual rainfall over the past century. Rainfall trends, including extremes, are
characterised by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends observed in different
parts of Asia. Observations also show that there have been more extreme rainfall events and fewer
weak rainfall events in the central Indian region. Projected rainfall trends also indicate that more rainfall
will be very likely (90% or more) at higher latitudes by the mid-21st century under a high-emissions
scenario and over southern Asia by the late-21st century. Under a low emissions scenario, more rainfall
at higher latitudes will be likely (66% or more) by mid-century but changes in rainfall are not likely (33%
or less) at low latitudes. Projections also suggest that there would be more frequent and heavy rainfall
days over parts of South Asia (low confidence).

As a consequence of climate change impact on tropical cyclones is likely to vary by region, but there
is agreement between models that rainfall will likely be more extreme near the centers of tropical
cyclones making landfall in South Asia (IPCC, 2014). It is very likely that there will be an increase in
extreme rainfall events related to monsoons in the region. Heavy rainfall days are projected to be more
frequent over parts of South Asia (low confidence).
CCDB 87I
During the 21st century global mean sea level will continue to rise; irrespective of emissions scenarios
– low and high – it is predicted that the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during
the last 30 years. Global mean sea level rise (SLR) by the 2080–2100 (as compared to sea levels in
1986–2005) will likely be in the ranges of 26–55cm under a low-emissions scenario, but 45–82cm for
a high-emissions scenario – with total sea level rise of up to 98 cm by 2100 under this latter scenario
(IPCC, 2013). This magnitude of SRL by the end of the century will significantly increase the risks for
coastal settlements of South Asia, also for coastal economies, cultures and ecosystems, particularly
when combined with changes in cyclone frequency or intensity. Low lying coastal areas in South Asia,
including India and Bangladesh, where millions of people live will be at increased risk of storm surges
(IPCC, 2014).

7.4.3. Climate Change Impacts on Natural Systems and Crop Agriculture

Although low-income South Asian countries such as Nepal and Bangladesh contribute little to the
accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions, they experience disproportionate impacts of climate
change because they rely on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, which are
affected by rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and changing rainfall patterns. Development planning
and practice must reflect the reality of the changing climate. Agriculture is a key driver of economic
growth in South Asian countries including Bangladesh. Projections indicate that floods, droughts, and
changes in seasonal rainfall patterns could adversely influence crop yields, food security, and
livelihoods in vulnerable areas. Projections also indicate that rural poverty in South Asia could continue
to be more widespread than urban poverty for decades to come. Undeniably, rural poverty in parts of
South Asia could rise because of poor rice harvests, and high food prices and living costs. Climate
change could have an effect on poverty in different countries and on different sections of a society in
diverse ways. For example, countries such as Bangladesh could experience 15% more poverty by
2030. The effects could also differ within food exporting countries, with farm laborers suffering
disproportionately. Climate change could also affect South Asia’s urban poor. The urban poor could
experience rises in food prices, as happened in 2007–2008. Certain categories of urban dwellers, such
as urban wage laborers, could be particularly vulnerable.

Climate change poses a formidable threat to the sustainable development of Bangladesh. The country
is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high population density, occurrence of frequent
natural hazards like flood, drought, cyclones, etc. Bangladesh’s agriculture sector is vulnerable due to
climate variabilities like temperature shocks and irregular rainfall and extreme events, such as
droughts, floods, cyclones, and storm surges. Climate change is an additional stress to the already
stressed agriculture. The government is committed to protecting the people from the negative effects
of climate change. The country prepares now to adapt to climate change and safeguard the future
well-being of its citizens (MoEF, 2009).

Several studied have been conducted on the consequences of climate change on natural systems.
Karim et al., 1999; Habibullah et al., 1999; and Selvaraju et al., 2006 reported that warming of the
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surface will intensify moisture stress and drought, while excess evaporation of moisture will give rise to
wetter peak monsoon in Bangladesh (Alam et al., 1999). Consequently, the phenomena of too much
water during monsoon and too little water during drought will aggravate the prevailing situations under
climate change, affecting lives and livelihoods of people and putting subsistence-based agriculture at
severe risks (MoEF, 2012).

It has also been reported that there would be a change in the behavior of cyclonic storms in frequency
and magnitude. On the other hand, sea level rise (SLR) is likely to ingress further into the coastal plain
that would bring more land under the saline regime, which will further complicate the coastal productive
system and deteriorate coastal living conditions (CEGIS, 2006). As a consequence of more precipitation
during monsoon, an onrush of water flow is likely to cause more erosion; the problem will be aggravated
along the braided rivers. Coastal erosion in the sea facing areas will force people to leave their ancestral
lands as agriculture in those areas will become extremely hazardous (Ahmed, 2008).

All these portray that there will be secondary impacts on different sectors such as food and health
insecurity, loss of lives and livelihoods, damage to infrastructures, loss of productive assets and
damage to national/local economy (MoE, 2012; Yu et al., 2010).

Variability of temperature and rainfall during the life cycle of rice has observable phenological impacts.
Yoshida (1981) showed that rice suffered from heat damage when it was exposed to air temperatures
above 35 °C. Islam (2011) reported decreased grain yields in rice with high temperature (34 °C) at
grain-filling stages. The timing of rainfall onset and the duration are also crucial factors for rice
cultivation in Bangladesh. Islam et al., (2002) showed that the interannual variation in crop yield was
mainly due to the variation in the amount and distribution of rainfall throughout the crop's life cycle.
Water stress during the vegetative stage delayed leaf emergence, reduced leaf area expansion and
partitioning, and thus reduced the assimilate source (Wopereis, 1993). Water deficit, particularly at
grain-filling stages significantly reduced rice yields (Islam, 2010).

7.4.4. Crop Modeling Studies

Due to the complexity of both agricultural systems and climate change, crop models are often used to
understand the impact of climate change on agriculture and to assist in the development of adaptation
strategies. Crop models integrate the understanding of crop physiology gathered from many years of
laboratory and field experimentations and therefore provide an effective means for investigating crop
responses to climate change and alternative management scenarios (Asseng et al., 2015).

Karim et al., (1996) conducted a simulation study to assess the vulnerability of food grain production
(rice and wheat) in six locations of Bangladesh to potential climate change due to enhanced CO2 and
temperature using CERES (Crop Environment REsource Synthesis)-RICE and CERES-WHEAT crop
models. Increased levels of CO2 increased yields of rice in all locations. The maximum yield increase
of 44% was noted for a CO2 level of 660 ppmv. The percent average increases of HYV aus, aman and
CCDB 89I
boro rice at 660 ppmv CO2 level were 40, 33 and 30%, respectively. The average increase of wheat
was 48%. Under elevated CO2 (330, 580 and 660 ppmv) and temperature (0, 2 and 4 °C) levels the
yield increases at 660 ppmv CO2+2 °C and 660 ppmv CO2+4 °C treatments were respectively 32 and
20% for rice and 9 and -31% for wheat. The reductions in wheat yield at higher temperatures were
quite significant. Even at elevated CO2 levels, the reduction in yield was remarkable with the gradual
increase in temperature.

In another simulation study conducted by Karim et al., (1999) showed that cereal production (rice and
wheat) in Bangladesh decreased due to rising temperature. Wheat was more susceptible than rice.
The GFDL General Circulation Model (GCM) predicted about 17% decline in overall rice production
and as high as 61% decline in wheat production compared to the baseline situation. GCM CCCM
predicted lower values of decline. It was found that 4 °C increase in temperature would have a severe
impact on foodgrain production, especially for wheat production. On the other hand, CO2 fertilization
would facilitate the food grain production. A rise in temperature will cause a significant decrease in
production, some 28% and 68% for rice and wheat respectively. The apparent increase in yield of boro
and other crops might be constrained by moisture stress. A 60% moisture stress on top of other effects
might cause as high as 32% decline in boro yield instead of having an overall 20% net increase.

The effect of climate change and CO2 concentration on growth and yield of rice and wheat in Punjab
was assessed using CSM-CERES-RICE and CSM-CERES-WHEAT crop simulations models. The
impact of climate change on agriculture food production is of global concerns. After an increase of 0.74
°C during the last century, globally averaged surface temperature is expected to rise between 1.1 °C
up to 6.4 °C by the last decade of the 21st Century. This temperature increase will alter the timing and
amount of rainfall. Increments in both maximum and minimum temperature by 4 °C decreased rice
yield by 34% as compared to base scenario with current weather data (Amgain et al., 2006).

A simulation study was conducted by Hussain (2011a) to assess the climate change related
vulnerability of food grain production in Bangladesh. Four climate change scenarios (baseline, GFDL
−TR = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient; HadCM2 = Hadley Centre Unified Model2
Transient ensemble and UKTR = UK Met. Office/Hadley Centre Transient) were used. Simulation runs
were made for HYV rice (aus, aman and boro), using the CERES-Rice model and for wheat using the
CERES-Wheat model. The detrimental effect of temperature rise was observed even with elevated
CO2 levels. Considerable spatial and temporal variations were also noted. Impact of these changes on
food security was also assessed. Yield reductions of rice and wheat were attributed to the effect of high
temperature during Aus and Aman seasons and dry spells. During boro season the temperature
increase under all scenarios varied between 1.5 °C for GFDL−TR scenario in 2015 and 2.6 °C for
HadCM2 in 2070. These temperature increases did not exceed the threshold value of 35.0 °C for rice.
Wheat is sensitive to high temperature, but increase of wheat yields was observed. This may be
attributed to the fact that when the temperature regime is not detrimental and wheat being a C3 crop,
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it is likely that at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 515 and 575 ppmv CO2 fertilization might have
occurred.

The study conducted by Karim et al., (2012) considered the possible impacts of climate change on a
high yielding modern boro rice variety BRRI dhan29, most important economically. The main purpose
of the study was to investigate the water-limited rice yields in Bangladesh for a changed climate. Rice
production was estimated across three selected districts with different planting dates and periods by
using a crop simulation model ORYZA2000. A case study was carried out to find out the optimum
planting date for the variety. Furthermore, the regions that are most vulnerable to extreme climatic
events were determined. Measures that can be applied in such regions to overcome the extreme
climatic problems would be the important outcome of this study. Simulation experiments were carried
out for 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. Results showed 33% reduction of average rice yields for
2046–2065 and 2081–2100 for three locations. Projected rainfall pattern and distribution will also have
a negative impact on the yields by increasing water demands by 14% in the future. The model also
showed that later transplanting will have less damage under the projected climate.

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh’s agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions were assessed using

experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate
information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the
agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river
floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Ruane, et
al., (2013) using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al., (2010), this study
provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and
production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each
sub-region using the biophysical CERES models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE
BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the
MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher
mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways,
sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production
across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high
degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and
depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected
sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced
when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is
severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts
increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

Basak et al., (2013) using DSSAT model conducted a simulation study to predict the effects of potential
change of temperature and CO2 on boro rice production in six major rice-growing agroecological zones
CCDB 91 I
of Bangladesh. The sensitivity analysis included the variation of maximum and minimum temperature
by 2 °C and 4 °C and different levels of CO2 concentrations ie., 50, 100, and 200 ppm above the value
reported for 2005 (379 ppm) in Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (2007). The model predicted that
the increase in maximum temperature drastically reduced the rice yield at all selected locations. The
average yield reductions of boro rice (average of 6 locations) were 6% and 16% for increasing
maximum temperature by 2 °C and 4 °C respectively. Minimum temperature had also negative impacts
on boro rice yields that reduced yield by 4% for 2 °C and 8% for 4 °C. However, a slight increase in rice
yield was observed due to increase in CO2 concentration but that could not overcome the negative
effect of temperature. Such yield reductions under changing climatic conditions could significantly
affect the rice production in Bangladesh in future.

FAO Aquacrop model version 3.1 was tested to understand the response of rice to temperature, CO2
water and to simulate the grain yield of rice under various independent data sets. The results of the
study revealed that the grain yield increased an average of 0.35 kg ha-1 with per mm increase in rainfall
and decreased by 156.2 kg ha-1 per degree rise in mean temperature in the subtropical region of India.
The simulation study was also conducted under different temperature, rainfall scenarios, and CO2
concentration. The most negative scenario was Tmax 4 °C+Tmin 4 °C+50 ppm CO2 where grain yield
reduced by 8.31% and for Tmax 4 °C+Tmin 4 °C+ (Rainfall-10) mm grain yield reduced by 37.67%
(Bhattacharya and Panda, 2013).

Haris and Chhabra (2015) assessed the impact of climate change on kharif and winter maize using the
generic crop model InfoCrop v. beta developed at IARI, Pusa and factors for HADCM3 A2 scenario and
concomitant CO2 increase. They reported that simulated yield of kharif maize decreased from baseline
for all the selected future time periods and stations of India. For Pusa, a yield decline of almost 4, 9 and
11% is predicted for 2020, 2050 and 2080 periods respectively. At Madhepura, predicted a decline in
yield from the baseline is by 3% during 2020; 7 and 9% for 2050 and 2080 respectively. Patna showed
the least decline ranges from 1 % in 2020 to 6% for 2050 and 2080s. Whereas, simulated winter maize
yield showed an increase from the baseline yield. The predicted increase is 9, 16 and 30% during 2020,
2050 and 2080 respectively at Pusa. At Madhepura, maize yield is predicted to increase from 10 to
24%, whereas yield increase is predicted to be 8 to 28% from 2020 to 2080 time periods at Patna. The
maximum increase in yield is observed at Pusa for all the three time periods.

By using the detailed field experiment data from 1981 to 2009 at four representative
agro-meteorological experiment stations in China, along with the Agricultural Production System
Simulator (APSIM) rice-wheat model, Bai et al., (2016) assessed the impact of sowing/transplanting
date on phenology and yield of rice-wheat rotation system (RWRS). They also unraveled the impacts
of climate change, modern cultivars, sowing/transplanting density and fertilization management, as
well as changes in each climate variables, to yield change in RWRS, in the past three decades. Change
in sowing/transplanting date did not significantly affect rice and wheat yield in RWRS, even though
reduced the negative impact of climate change to some extent. From 1981 to 2009, climate change
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jointly caused rice and wheat yield change by −17.4 to 1.5 %, of which increase in temperature reduced
yield by 0.0 to 5.8 % and the decrease in solar radiation reduced it by 1.5 to 8.7 %. Cultivars renewal,
modern sowing/transplanting density, and fertilization management contributed to yield change by 14.4
to 27.2, −4.7 to −0.1 and 2.3–22.2 %, respectively. They reported that modern cultivars and agronomic
management compensated the negative impacts of climate change and played key roles in yield
increase in the past three decades.

Most of these crop model simulations studies have considered only a few components of the
production system/ecosystem. When other environmental aspects like; floods, droughts, and cyclones,
salinity and social parameters such as settlement, urban migration, etc. are superimposed, the sector
becomes more vulnerable. On top of this, due to climate change it is likely that the incidences of pests
and diseases would increase, which might further aggravate the situation.

CCDB 93I
 8 Coping with the
Adverse Conditions

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8. Coping with the Adverse Conditions
As stated by Dr. Louis Verchot of the World Agroforestry Centre that “developing countries, which are
already home to most of the world’s poor and malnourished people and have contributed relatively little
to the causes of global warming, are going to bear the brunt of climate change and suffer most from its
negative consequences. Anticipating and planning for climate change is imperative if farmers in poor
countries are to avert forecast declines in yields of the world's most important food crops,” he added
(Pegg, 2006). Climate change is a reality and will affect the poor in developing countries in many ways
(IRRI, 2008).

Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to the projected impacts of climate change, as these are likely to
increase the already high risk of disasters and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Climate change will
cause changes such as higher temperatures, varying rainfall patterns and sea level rise as well as
more abrupt effects, such as an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events such as
floods, storm surges and cyclones. It is predicted that by the year 2030, an additional 14% of the
country will become extremely vulnerable to floods, and currently, vulnerable areas will experience
higher levels of flooding. Indeed, significant proportions of areas may be permanently inundated. At the
same time, some areas of the country may be at greater risk of drought and food insecurity during the
dry season, and agricultural productivity in coastal areas may be hampered by increasing salinity. The
scope and scale of Bangladesh’s vulnerability to climate change associated with agricultural practices
demands serious assessment (Hussain, 2011).

While many aspects of climate change affect crop production, the two primary threats are heat and
drought stress, neither of which has been unanimously defined in the literature, largely because crops
vary in terms of absolute stress thresholds. Therefore, experts from different cereals agreed on the
following definitions for heat and drought stress, based on plant response (Reynolds et al., 2016):

Heat stress: Where temperatures are hot enough for sufficient time can cause irreversible damage to
plant function or development is often known as heat stress. This is typically characterized by
accelerated plant development resulting in reduced photosynthetic area, plant biomass, and seed set.
In addition, it may also result in reduced harvest index (HI) where heat stress inhibits reproductive
success by affecting gametogenesis, pollination-related processes, and grain set. Where heat stress
occurs during grain-filling, reduced grain weight (and therefore HI) will result from inhibition of starch
synthesis, increased starch breakdown, and/or premature and rapid increase in senescence.

Drought stress: This stress results when water loss from the plant exceeds the ability of the plant's
roots to absorb water and when the plant's water content is reduced enough to interfere with normal
plant processes. Symptoms are similar to those described above under heat stress, namely
accelerated plant development resulting in reduced biomass, decreased seed set probably associated
with plant signaling in response to a dry soil profile, and reduced grain size and HI due to early grain
filling and premature senescence, triggered by the lack of water.
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8.1. Adaptation
Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustments natural or human systems that takes place in
response to actual or anticipated impacts of climatic change, and intended either to reduce the harm,
or to achieve beneficial opportunities (Smith et al., 2001). It can be autonomous adaptation or planned
adaptation. There is a distinction between autonomous and planned adaptation. Planned adaptation
actions are deliberate response strategies, aimed at changing the adaptive capacity of the systems or
communities, e.g., new cropping systems, or facilitating specific adaptations across different
agroclimatic zones in the long term. Planned adaptation could involve improving physical infrastructure
to reduce the impacts of extreme climate events (e.g., dykes) or measures to improve the adaptive
capacity of systems. Scarcity induced resource substitution and substitution of new crop varieties for
old ones are planned adaptation while autonomous adaptation is the spontaneous reaction of a farmer
to changing weather patterns, by changing crops or altering sowing dates in the short term. Adaptations
are widely undertaken autonomously, without consciously planned interventions, and these have
potential to reduce negative impacts of climate change or to moderate vulnerabilities, thereby easing
concerns over the danger of climate change.

Both autonomous and planned adaptation depends on the responsive capacity of the system
(household, community, and sector) depending on the socio-economic, technological, institutional and
policy factors. Assessment of vulnerability and adaptability would involve analysis of these factors,
current and future needs towards strengthening the system capacity to deal with extreme climate
change events or hazards. Close links exist between vulnerability and adaptability, as vulnerability is a
function of a systems exposure to climate variability, and its capacity to cope with, and adapt to the
extreme changes in climate (IPCC, 2001).

The magnitude of climate change impact on different resources would likely to vary. Simulation studies
have shown that the impacts could result in significant reductions in crop yields in most cases and
thereby production. It is obvious that effect of the changes would vary because of the local differences
in growing seasons, crop management, differences in the variety, etc. On top of these, soil salinity
regime in the coastal zone is very likely to increase with climate change that will have an extra bearing
on agriculture. The scarcity of fresh water for irrigation would be a problem especially during the winter
months that will again have a negative implication of the yield of boro rice. Climate change may
increase input use like fertilizers and irrigation. As a consequence of climate change, the trend shows
that drier regions would be drier in the winter season. Therefore, the possibility of growing rainfed crops
would diminish. The damages due to sea level rise would be huge and the countries do not have the
wealth to tackle this problem by structural means, therefore, use natural means to combat the problem.
In future, the existing technologies may not be adequate to address these problems.

As the incidences of floods and droughts are likely to increase in frequency, On the other hand, During
the dry months of March and April, salinity problems, resulting from seawater intrusion, are more acute
and lands are commonly left fallow as crop production is restricted by the presence of salts.

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Climate change would make agriculture as the most vulnerable sector and crop subsector to be more
specific. Depending on the local agro-climatic environment as well as the magnitude of the changes
easing strategies has to be developed. With the available technologies, it would be possible to increase
food production substantially, which would depend on the dissemination of these technologies to the
end-users, also on the availability and affordability of extra resources/inputs required for this purpose.
However, under changed scenarios, development of new technologies will be necessary to combat
climate change and sea level rise coupled with the great pressure of population increase. Agronomic
manipulations such as shifting the planting dates, using short duration crop cultivars could be other
options. Efforts to develop crop cultivars tolerant to these hazards will be necessary. However, using
agronomic manipulations techniques such as shifting the planting dates, using short duration, etc. can
help to avoid spikelet sterility due to terminal heat stress.

In the tidally flooded ecosystems, the ‘Sorjan’ (raised beds) system of cropping, and rice + fish culture
and organized fisheries, etc. are some of the options for waterlogged areas. Use double transplanting
of Aman rice to avoid floods or use older seedlings. The damages due to sea level rise would be
colossal and the countries do not have the wealth to tackle this problem by structural means. Therefore,
combating the problem by natural means is a better option.

Other options may be cash crops such as tomato, aroids, and chili grown with proper management of
soil and water. Use of raised beds and irrigated through drip irrigation systems permit proper leaching
of salts from the root zone. This system of crop cultivation produce high economic benefit compared to
traditional methods.

To tackle the water scarcity problem, efforts to develop crop cultivars with high water use efficiency can
ease the problem. Rice being a C3 crop transpires about 500 molecules of water to fixing a molecule
of CO2 during photosynthesis. Changing the food habit would be another option, reducing the
dependency on rice, and switching to maize, which is a C4 crop with a transpiration ratio of about 250.
Some technologies are developed and some are in the pipeline. Some of which are presented below
that could be used to combat climate induced environmental change.

8.2. Adaptation Strategies

The strong trends in climate variability and its extremes already evident, the likelihood of further
changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing
agricultural adaptation more coherently. As per AR5 of IPCC (2014), by 2050, the projected annual
GDP losses under the business as usual (BAU) scenario for Bangladesh would be about 2.0%. In the
longer term, the total economic costs associated with climate change impacts are likely to increase. If
no action is taken to adapt to and mitigate global climate change, then the average total economic loss
is projected to be 9.4% (Ahmed and Suphachalasai, 2014). But if climate resilience adaptive measures

CCDB 97I
are put into practice, most of the losses could be averted. Adaptation to climate variability and extremes
events serves as a basis for reducing vulnerability to long term climate change. It is understood that the
patterns or trends of the past climate can tell us something about future climate. Strategies developed
to manage year-to-year climate variability can go a long way towards building resilience and managing
the risks of climate. The different adaptation methods that we have collected from literature and have
been found to serve as inputs for the national adaptation strategies have been discussed:

8.2.1. Use of Stress Tolerant Crop Varieties or Climate Ready Crops

Development of new crop varieties with higher yield potential and resistance to multiple stresses
(drought, flood, salinity) will be the key to maintain yield stability (Lobell et al., 2008). At the same time,
harnessing benefit of technology generation also requires well a developed system for sales and
distribution of quality seeds and propagation material and improved access of farmers to other inputs
like quality fertilizers, pesticides, etc. In Bangladesh, some of candidate genotypes has been tested
and screened for resilience to different stresses and the promising varieties/genotypes were identified
through multi-location field trials and have released for dissemination among farmers, as the adaptation
strategy to reduce vulnerability.

8.2.1.1. Salinity Tolerance

To overcome this adverse situation, the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and the
Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture (BINA), under a joint collaboration with International Rice
Research Institute (IRRI), have developed four salt-tolerant rice varieties for boro season. BINA
developed Binadhan-8 and Binadhan-10 while BRRI developed BRRI dhan47 and BRRI dhan55. All
these four varieties have the capacity to fight salinity condition up to 10-12 dS m−1. These varieties
have yield potential of five to seven t ha−1 under normal conditions in non-saline areas while the yield
will be around 3 to 5 t ha−1 in saline-prone areas, depending on the degree of salinity in countries
across Asia. CSR 43 in India and Binadhan-8 and Binadhan-10 in Bangladesh are popular salt-tolerant
varieties (IRRI, 2016).

8.2.1.2. Drought Tolerance

Drought is the most widespread and damaging of all environmental stresses, affecting 23 million
hectares of rainfed rice in South and Southeast Asia alone. IRRI has developed and released drought
tolerant varieties that are now being planted by farmers in several countries. These include Sahbhagi
dhan in India, Sahod Ulan in the Philippines, and the Sukkha dhan varieties in Nepal. Field trials
suggest that the average yield advantage of drought-tolerant varieties over drought-sensitive ones is
0.8–1.2 t ha-1 under drought conditions (IRRI, 2016). As such there is no drought tolerant rice variety in
Bangladesh but scientists of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute have identified rice varieties those
can escape drought risks of varying intensities. If the medium duration (140 days) varieties are
transplanted between 5-25 July then it might encounter less drought risk. While some short duration
(120-day) varieties such as BRRI dhan33 and BRRI dhan39, BRRI dhan71 and BINA-7 are capable of
avoiding the terminal drought if they are transplanted by 15 July. To escape drought the varieties like
BRRI dhan56, BRRI dhan57, and BRRI dhan62 can be grown within 100-110 days.

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8.2.1.3. Submergence Tolerance
Rice plants normally die within a week in submergence. Farmers in countries with rice areas prone to
flooding– such as the Philippines, Bangladesh, and India–collectively lose millions of tonnes of rice per
year because of floods. With increased rainfall and flooding in many parts of Bangladesh, new breeds
of rice benefiting from a trait that allows the plant to survive prolonged periods of submergence are
already helping farmers on millions of hectares in the country. To tackle 1-2 weeks complete
submergence due to flooding enhancing tolerance of BR11 has been done through introgression of
Sub1 gene. IRRI discovered Sub1, the gene for flood tolerance, and incorporated this gene into several
popular rice varieties. Field trials have shown that rice varieties with SUB1 have a yield advantage of
1–3 t ha−1 following flooding of 10–15 days. Flood-tolerant varieties have been released and are now
being planted across Asia. These include IR64-Sub1 (Submarino 1) in the Philippines; Swarna-Sub1
released as improved Swarna in India, BRRI dhan51 in Bangladesh, and INPARA 3 in Indonesia; and
Samba Mahsuri-Sub1 released as Samba-Sub1 in India and Binadhan-12 in Bangladesh. Flood-tolerant
varieties have been released and are now being planted across Asia. The released Aman varieties in
Bangladesh include flood tolerant Swarna Sub 1 as BRRI dhan51 and BR 11 Sub 1 as BRRI dhan52 and
Binadhan-12 which can sustain 10 to 17 days submergence under flash flood waters paving the way for
producing five tonnes paddy per hectare in the vast flash flood prone areas.

8.2.1.4. Adjusting Cropping Season

Adjustment of planting dates to minimize the effect of temperature increase induced spikelet sterility
can be used to reduce yield instability, by avoiding of having the flowering period to coincide with the
hottest period. There exists a strong correlation between yield declines in rice and wheat and the
shortening of crop duration under high temperature, whereas shifting the transplanting date seems to
be an effective measure to reduce the shortening of crop duration for both crops (Jalota et al., 2013).
The study further confirms that yield declines are found to be smaller (in the range of -2.4% for 2020,
-13.3% for 2050, and -26.6% for 2080, when the transplanting date is shifted by +7 days for rice in
comparison to the yield declines (in the range of -4.6 percent for 2020, -16.1 percent for 2050, and
-29.1 percent for 2080 under A2 SRES scenario. Likewise, yield declines were found to be smaller in
wheat (in the range of -4.3 from -8.8 percent for 2020, -13.6 from 22.5 percent for 2050, and -28 from
41 percent) when the transplanting date is shifted by +15 days under same emission scenario.
Sorghum yields which were projected to decline by 16 percent in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka and
by 4-5 percent in Andhra Pradesh by 2020 are now expected to decline by only 1-2 percent with low
cost adoptive measure and shifting in sowing dates (Srivastava et al., 2010).

8.2.1.5. Conservation Agriculture (CA)

Conservation agriculture practices, consider the three main components, (i) Minimal soil disturbance
(disturbed area must be less than 25% of cropped area), (ii) Soil cover (ground cover must be more
than 30%) and (iii) Crop rotation (at least three different crops should involve in rotation) is gradually
gaining coverage worldwide to about 124 million hectare (Friedrich et al., 2012) and in south Asia to
about 3.90 million hectares (Jat et al., 2011). CA has been adopted in tropics/sub-tropics and temperate

CCDB 99I
regions of the world for both rain-fed and irrigated ecosystems in view of its pronounced effects to
mitigate the greenhouse gases emission and adaptation to climatic variability (Malik et al., 2005; Gupta
et al., 2010; Pathak et al., 2011). By adopting CA practices, agricultural soils in the world are estimated
to have the potential to sequester 0.4-0.8 Pg C per year (Lal, 2004). Improved agricultural management
practices such as conversion from conventional to no-till or reduced tillage, residue retention,
conversion to permanent pasture, crop rotation and fertilizer application have shown to increase soil C
in various countries, including India (West and Marland 2002; VanenBygaart et al., 2003; Lal 2004;
Patle et al., 2013). However, contradictory results are common in the literature. For example, a
meta-analysis based studies in North America and South America indicated that adoption of no-till did
not increase soil C stock down to 40 cm (Luo et al., 2010). This is true under Indian conservation
agriculture, where CA sequesters maximum soil organic carbon near soil surface layer up to 10 cm
(Patle et al., 2013).

8.2.1.6. Crop Diversification

Crop diversification has established itself as one of the most popular farm level responses to climatic
variability and change particularly in countries which are mostly of rural economies and are at most risk
(Bradshaw et al., 2004). Besides moderating crop production from the effects of greater climate
variability and extreme events, crop diversification improves resilience by stimulating a greater ability
to suppress pest outbreaks and dampen pathogen transmission, which may worsen under future
climate scenarios, (Lin, 2011). It is evident from the published reports that fewer attempts have been
made in India and Bangladesh to quantify the benefits of diversification in relation to coping with climate
change and its risks. Diversification is commonly studied to meet demand fluctuations and stabilize
farmer’s income. Identification of least impacted cropping systems is needed and encourage those
which improve carbon sequestration, like maize-wheat and agroforestry systems had 65–88% higher
soil organic carbon stocks than the rice-wheat system, Benbi et al., (2012), under other conditions it
can add to them (Waha et al., 2013). Crop diversification study conducted in India by Saha (2013) has
shown that crop diversification in India taken place in western and south-western states, while as crop
specialization has occurred in states like West Bengal, Assam, Manipur and Mizoram. As the traditional
cropping pattern is becoming less productive because of changing rainfall patterns and water
resources depletion. Consequently crop intensification, through mixed cropping and incorporation of
high-value crops such as horticultural production, is gaining importance as a climate change adaptation
strategy. A re-evaluation of cropping patterns can provide higher risk security.

8.2.1.7. Local Weather Information

Weather information at local level and its early warning systems can be very useful in minimizing risks of
climatic challenges. But climate/weather information in Bangladesh and in other countries of South Asia
is usually available only as raw observations or in the form of tables, graphs, or written summaries, which
is not easily comprehended by the users particularly by progressive farmers or even extension agents
who are not experienced in climate science to fully interpret. To bridge this gap, there is need to translate
climate data into accessible, useful, and accurate products; and to better understand what the information
means and how it can be used most effectively. Access to relevant and easily comprehensible weather

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and climate information is crucial for effectively managing the risk and optimizing agricultural
production. Successful utilization of meteorological information for the benefit of food production can be
seen as examples from the results of a case study in Mali, Africa (Hellmuth et al., 2007) and Kalyani,
India (Maini and Rathore, 2011), where crop yields and farm incomes were compared for farmers
taking management decisions with and without agro-meteorological information. Results revealed that
crop yields and farmer’s incomes were significantly higher in fields where agro-meteorological
information was used compared with those where it was not used. The increase in income was
substantial, notably for maize in Mali, (where farmers earned 80% more income from
agro-meteorological fields) and for oilseed mustard in India, (where, farmers earned 12% more income
from farmers using agro-meteorological advisory services). Similarly, in Finland, early information to
farmers on prevalence of extreme low temperature has prevented the loss of more than 50% of citrus
yield, which was vulnerable to the premature fruit drop disease caused by fungus under low
temperature (Tolat, 2013).

8.2.1.8. Improved Pest Management

The adverse impacts of higher temperatures, droughts and unreliable or more intense precipitation are
more likely to be endured by healthier crops. Changes in temperature and variability in rainfall would
affect incidence of pests and disease and virulence of major crops, like at higher temperature, declined
survival rate of brown plant hopper and rice leaf folder has been observed in rice ecosystem
(Karuppaiah and Sujayanad, 2012). Climate change will potentially affect the pest/weed-host
relationship by affecting the pest/weed population, the host population and the pest/weed-host
interactions. Cheke and Tratalos, (2007) has reported that in Sub-Saharan Africa, changes in rainfall
patterns are driving migratory patterns of the desert locust. Some of the potential adaptation strategies
in this context could be: (i) developing cultivars resistance to pests and diseases; (ii) adoption of
integrated pest management with more emphasis on biological control and changes in cultural
practices, (iii) pest forecasting using recent tools such as simulation modelling, and (iv) developing
alternative production techniques and crops, as well as locations, that are resistant to infestations and
other risks.

8.2.1.9. Water Saving Technologies

Water saving or conservation technologies acts as buffer against production risk in the face of climate
change and its variability (Kato et al., 2011), and could be part of the country’s climate proofing
strategy. In view of increasing frequency of droughts, warm days and warm nights which are likely to
increase further in the next decades (IPCC, 2013 for India), water-saving technologies (WST) are
going to contribute substantially against production risks. In addition, WST reduces the greenhouse
gas emissions, which can ease the negative effects of climate change on agricultural production
(Karimi et al., 2012). However, In India, the cost and effectiveness of using WST to cope with climate
change has remained few in literature. The cost and effectiveness are very important factors relevant
to the willingness of farmers to adopt. Zou et al., (2013), while studying the cost-effectiveness
analysis of water-saving irrigation technologies based on climate change response has concluded
that water-saving irrigation (WSI) is cost-effective in coping with climate change, and has benefits for

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climate change mitigation and adaptation, and for sustainable economic development compared to
sprinkler irrigation which has highest incremental cost for mitigation (476.03–691.64 US$/t), as it may
need additional energy to meet water pressure requirements, which may increase greenhouse gas
emissions compared to traditional irrigation. The results suggest that for mitigation and adaptation
objectives, micro-irrigation performs best. From an economic perspective, channel lining has been
recommended. Therefore, a balanced development of channel lining and micro-irrigation according to
different geographical conditions must recommend.

8.3. Climate-Smart Agriculture

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is not a new agricultural system, nor is it a set of practices. It is a new
approach that addresses the intertwined challenges of building synergistic relationship among climate
change mitigation, adaptation and food security which are intimately related within agriculture, and
minimizing their potential negative impacts. CSA seeks to enhance the capacity of the agriculture
sector to sustainably increase productivity
and income, build resilience to climate
change, reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and enhance achievement of national food
Productivity
Income, security and development goals
productivity, and (Grainger-Jones, 2011), Aggarwal et al.,
food security 2013). However, the specific conditions,
circumstances, and capacities within
countries will define opportunities and
CSA barriers to implementation, and hence policy
Adaptation Mitigation choices (FAO, 2011). Following are the
Climate change GHG emissions
reduction end
common climate-smart interventions which
adaptation and
resilience removals can be used to adapt and mitigate impacts of
enhancement climate change. Figure 24 depicts the
concept of climate smart agriculture.

In brief, CSA to permit the generation of

Figure 24. The Three Pillars of Climate-Smart Agriculture income in a more climate-resilient way. The
three pillars can be narrated as follows:
Productivity: The purpose of CSA is to increase agricultural productivity and income from crops,
livestock and fish in the long run, without negatively impacting the environment. A key concept related
to raising productivity is sustainable intensification, ideally through labor-intensive rather than
capital-intensive means of production.

Adaptation: Minimize the exposure of farmers and ecosystems to short-term risks is what CSA aims
at while also building their capacity to adapt and prosper in the face of shocks and longer-term
stresses. Particular attention is given to protecting the 'environmental services' that support
ecosystems such as clean water and fertile soils.

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Mitigation: Wherever and whenever possible, CSA should lessen and or eliminate greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. The approach should also reduce deforestation and manage soils and trees in ways
that maximize their potential to act as carbon sinks and CO2 absorbers.

The following climate smart interventions which are commonly used in agriculture to adapt impacts of
climate change and mitigate emissions of GHG.

Nitrogen Smart: Site specific nutrient management, precision application of fertilizers, and
incorporation of legumes in farming systems.

Water Smart: Improved water management, use efficiency and productivity including efficient and
sustainable management of groundwater use, aquifer recharge, rainwater harvesting, community
management of water, laser levelling, and on-farm water management.

Energy Smart: Use fuel-efficient agro-machineries, of biofuels, residue management, and reduced
tillage.

Knowledge Smart: Farmer-to-farmer knowledge exchange, capacity development of self-help groups

(with participation of women and marginalized farmers) to take advantage of weather and climatic
services, cross-site visits of farmers to analogue sites and to other areas with climate-smart agriculture,
participative evaluation of adaptive varieties and risk profiles, community seed banks managed by
women. ICT based market knowledge, waste management, and homestead gardens.

Carbon Smart: Promotion of agroforestry, livestock and manure management, conservation tillage,
diversified land-use systems, residue management, and restoration of degraded lands.

Weather Smart: Tailored temperature and precipitation information, location specific agro-advisories
developed and disseminated via radio, cell phones, and other ICT platforms, and pilot projects with
local insurance companies and banks to test index-based insurance products.

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 9 Recommended Cropping
Patterns for Saline,
Drought and Flood
Prone Areas of
Bangladesh

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9. Recommended Cropping Patterns for Saline,
Drought and Flood Prone Areas of Bangladesh
Biophysical suitability of a crop is not the only criterion for selection but food security sometimes forces
the farmer in decision making. Farmers are not encouraged to grow crops other than rice if they do not
get a good price for their crops or do not have a market for their produce. Even though production of
rice is not profit making intervention by the small holder farmers, they grow rice for their household food
security. Choice of crops for cultivation is mostly influenced by price, infrastructural facilities,
socioeconomic and environmental factors like preference/need of the land owners, marketability, and
profitability, availability of land for timely cultural operation, agroclimatic suitability, etc.

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) addresses the challenges of building synergies among climate
change mitigation, adaptation, and food security which are closely related to agriculture and minimizing
their potential negative trade-offs. CSA try to enhance the capacity of the agriculture sector to
sustainably support food security, integrating the need for adaptation and the potential for mitigation
into development policies. The specific conditions, circumstances, and capacities within countries will
define opportunities and barriers to implementation, and hence choices of policy (FAO, 2011).

Drought and flood tolerant varieties of crops, adapted livestock and fish, weather forecasts, ICT-based
agro-advisories, weather-based insurance, water management practices, conservation tillage, soil, and
agroforestry for carbon sequestration, precision fertilizers, custom-made mechanization, seed and
fodder banks, are some of the best options and practices in use. Nonetheless, there is still considerable
technology and knowledge gaps and much more scope for collaboration and policy reform
(APAARI-CCAFS-WMO, 2012).

In selecting the cropping patterns for the different stress-prone regions, and the crops and varieties
included in the pattern should be able to meet specific requirements. There are many factors to
consider in crop selection. The crop and the variety to be grown should be selected based on their
adaptability to the prevailing conditions of the region or on the farm. It is always useful to identify the
crops growing on the farm and in the neighborhood. Also interviewing neighboring farmers will provide
valuable information regarding its probability of success, or failure, of growing certain preferred crops.
The marketability and profitability must be considered in selecting a crop. The selected crop must be a
high yielding and must have an access to a stable and robust market. When labor and other inputs are
used efficiently, the harvest will realize a profit which can be used to finance the succeeding farm
activities or generate substantial return on investment.

Therefore, specific sets of selection criteria were followed considering the ecological settings,
preferences, profitability and marketability. It is suggested that wherever possible climate smart
agricultural practices should be used. Interventions such as water smart, climate smart, nitrogen smart,

CCDB 105I
knowledge smart etc. as described in section 8.3 of chapter 8 of this book. Annex-1 gives the crop and
variety-wise characteristics.

9.1. Key Criteria for Guiding the Selection of Cropping Patterns for Salt
Affected Areas of Bangladesh
The following set of criteria were followed in selecting the crops and cropping patterns for the salt
affected areas of the country:
• crops/varieties are salinity tolerant and can withstand salinity for more than ten dS m−1 at all
stages of life, especially for rice;
• at least one cereal crop is included for household food security and one high value cash crop;
• non-rice crops that are able to utilize residual soil moisture;
• agricultural produces are easily marketable with high value;
• cropping patterns accomodate maximum number of crops to maximise benefit;
• wherever possible legume is include for improving soil physico-chemical properties and
• use technologies those are climate smart with low carbon footprint;
Table 36. Recommended Cropping Patterns for the Salt Affected Areas

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*Cropping patterns under S2, S3 and S4 can also be practiced

9.2. Key Criteria for Guiding the Selection of Cropping Patterns for Drought
Prone Region of Bangladesh
The following selection criteria were followed in determining the cropping patterns for the drought prone
region of Bangladesh:
• crops/varieties are drought resistant and less water consuming or require less irrigation;
• are able to utilize residual soil moisture;
• at least one cereal crop is included for household food security and one high value cash crop;
• non−rice crops that are able to utilize residual soil moisture;
• agricultural produces are easily marketable with high value;
• cropping patterns accomodate maximum number of crops to maximise benefit;
• wherever possible legume is include for improving soil physico-chemical properties and
• use technologies those are climate smart with low carbon footprint.

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 Table 37. Recommended Cropping Patterns for the Drought Prone Region

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* Indian spinach, stem amaranth, pumkin, etc.

9.3. Key Criteria for Guiding the Selection of Cropping Patterns for Flood
Prone Region of Bangladesh
The following selection criteria were followed in determining the cropping patterns for the flood prone
region of Bangladesh:
• crops/varieties are submergence tolerant and can withstand flooding for more than ten days;
• at least one cereal crop is included for household food security and one high value cash crop;
• non-rice crops are able to utilize residual soil moisture;
• are easily marketable with high value;
• cropping patterns accomodate maximum number of crops to maximise benefit;
• earliness of surface drainage/recession of floodwater from the land;
• wherever possible legume is include for improving soil physico-chemical properties and
• use technologies those are climate smart with low carbon footprint.
Since there is a strong relationship between flooding and land types it is important that, besides the
above selection criteria land types are also considered.
Table 38. Recommended Cropping Patterns for the Flood Prone Areas

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*Cultivars : Bheda, Hijaldigha, Laxmidigha, Baindigha, Bildigha, Bainamotor, Gabura, Bajail, Lalkhama, Shadakhama, Parchung,
Rajamon, Koyra, Kalasona, Kaita Bajal, Kartikshail, Hori Jaron, Pathkola Khama, Sadapankaich, Leja Jali digha, etc.

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10 The Way Forward

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10. The Way Forward
Bangladesh has a finite agricultural land resource and which is declining at a faster rate due to
development activities and increased non-agricultural use. To feed 189.7 and 214.8 million people
nutritiously by 2030 and 2050 we need to make agriculture more productive, and resilient to biotic and
abiotic stresses and shocks in the face of climate change. Therefore, in order to produce more food
within a limited area, the most important options are i) increasing yield through improving genetic
potential of crops and make yield gap closer by using optimum management practices and ii)
increasing cropping intensity, producing three or more crops over the same piece of land annually is
another window which can be utilized to increase production. Oilseeds and pulses are the important
group of crops which are mostly grown in rabi season but area of those crops decreased due to
increasing cultivation of irrigated boro rice.

The cropping systems of Bangladesh are mostly rice based. The major cropping systems are rice-rice,
rice-wheat, rice-rice-rice, rice-maize, and rice-potato. The Recent development of short duration
varieties of rice, mustard, potato, pulses and jute, created opportunities to accommodate three or four
crops in sequence on the same field in a period of 12 months. Also stress tolerant varieties of rice,
wheat, pulses etc. have opened the window to accommodate three or more crops in a pattern even in
the stressed ecosystems. We need climate-smart agriculture that increases productivity and incomes,
boosts resilience, and lessens emissions while potentially sequester carbon. Climate variability and
change is the most significant challenge to achieving sustainable food security and development.
Bangladesh has achieved food self-sufficiency and with the economic development of the country the
next target is to achieve nutritional security.

On the other hand, there is an emerging agreement that changes in temperature and precipitation can
have detrimental impacts on the food security of the most vulnerable people, in the absence of adaptation.
However, the combined impact of climate change on food security is very complex to comprehend fully. It
is also felt that climate change impacts on food security will not be evenly distributed, among countries or
regions. Vulnerability of the people and ecosystems will depend on the ability to adapt to these changes.
Climate change is inevitable and as a consequence, the magnitude of abiotic stresses from floods,
droughts, and salinity intrusion is very likely to increase which in turn will have a negative impact on
agriculture as a whole and on crop production in particular. Therefore, developing abiotic stress
resistance/tolerance crop varieties is important and effort should be made to popularize the stress-tolerant
varieties and ensuring availability and access to new varieties and technologies. The recommended
cropping patterns with crops tolerant to various abiotic stresses and newer tolerant varieties may help in
making our crop agriculture more resilient to face the future challenges of climate change.

To better understand climate change challenges and develop cost-effective solutions at the local level
and to fill knowledge gaps more research is needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of the
sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of natural and human systems.

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 Annex-1
Crop Varieties and their Characteristics

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 1500 -2000 kg ha-1

Potato Varieties

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Varieties

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Varieties

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 Varieties

The above varieties incorporated with Sub1 can tolerate complete submergence for about two to three weeks as described. Thereafter, the water should recede. In
areas where submergence occurs for a longer duration and where water depth of about 25–30 cm or more remains stagnant even after flood recession, regeneration
of the plant may not be possible. Hence, such areas should be avoided.

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Annex-2
List of Key Informants Interviewed

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Annex-3
List of Farmers Interviewed

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 Annex-4
List of Experts Interviewed

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Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh (CCDB) has
been working in Bangladesh since 1973 to create a just and
caring society where the poor, marginalized and vulnerable people
can claim and enjoy human rights and justice for a sustainable
livelihood with dignity.

Acknowledging climate change as a priority development issue to

be addressed in Bangladesh, CCDB has been implementing
several projects to build community resilience to climate change
impact since 2007. Moreover, CCDB has taken several initiatives
to introduce adaptive technologies in the areas of agriculture,
water, etc. Capacity building on climate change adaptation and
mitigation is another one of the priority areas of CCDB's climate
change program. This initiative is playing a significant role in
building skill and knowledge of different stakeholders including
NGO professionals. CCDB's Climate Change Unit is also heavily
involved in some research on agricultural adaptation, loss and
damage, ICT in climate change, etc. In addition, CCDB is in the
process of establishing a Climate Technology Park- an interactive
climate learning center, first of its kind in Bangladesh to provide
solutions regarding adaptation and mitigation technologies since
2016. The ultimate objective of CCDB's climate change program
is to promote pro-poor climate resilient low carbon sustainable
development in Bangladesh and beyond.

This book "Identification and Modeling of Suitable Cropping

Systems and Patterns for Saline, Drought and Flood Prone Areas
of Bangladesh" is an outcome of a research initiated by Climate
Change Unit of CCDB.