J. Indian Waater Resour. Soc.

,
S Vol 35,
No. 4, Occtober 2015

STUDY OF
O CHAN
NGE POIN
NT AND TREND
T IN
N TEMPERRATURE OF RAIP
PUR IN
C
CHHATTI SGARH (INDIA)
(
aiswal1*, A.K
R.K. Ja K. Lohani2 and H.L. Tiw
wari3
AB
BSTRACT
Temperature is thhe most significcant variable inffluences human life, hydrologicaal cycle, agricullture, health andd many more. Inn the present
T
sttudy, statistical analysis have been
b carried ouut to ascertain change point iff any and possibble trend in moonthly, seasonall and annual
historical series of
o minimum and d maximum tempperature of Raippur, a capital citty of Chhattisgaarh state in Indiaa. Well establishhed and most
coommonly used Pettitt’s
P test and
d Mann-Kendall’s test have beenn used in the annalysis of statisttical change poiint detection annd significant
trrends in the histtorical series off temperature. The
T results of chhange point anaalysis confirmed that the monthlly (for March, July, J August,
S
September and October),
O seasonnal and annual historical
h series of minimum tem mperature has most
m change poinnts in the year 1995.1 Raipur
ciity and surroundding region witn nessed a rapid industrial and coommercial grow wth due to its sellection for capittal of proposed Chhattisgarh
C
sttate in late nineties. Considering g this fact and results
r of changge point analysiss, the trend analy
lysis has been caarried out for thhree different
tiime periods i.e. P-1 (1971 to 19 995), P-2 (19866 to 2012) and P-3 P (1971 to 20012). The trendd analysis has coonfirmed that faalling tend of
m
minimum temperaature prior to 19 995 (P-1) conveerted to rising trrend after 1986 (P-2).
( The maxim mum temperaturre was found lesss affected to
possible climate change
c except in
n winter months.
K words: Climaate change, Cha
Key ange point, trendd analysis, signifficant analysis, maximum
m temperrature, minimum
m temperature

2001 too 2007 in northheastern zone of Tamilnadu (India) using

INT
TRODUCT
TION cluster analysis and found that thhe maximum changes c were
Thee trend detectioon in climatic variables
v and precipitation
p tim
me observeed during 20055 and 2004 followed by 20007. Karmeshu
seriies is one of the
t interesting research areaas in climatoloogy (2012) applied Mannn-Kendall’s tesst statistic has been applied
andd hydrology as it impact spatiial and temporral distribution of for deteection of trendds in meteoroloogical data andd precipitation
be. It is noted that precipitatiion
watter availability across the glob of ninee states in USA A from 1900 too 2011, where all the states
andd temperature changes are not n globally uniform.
u Yue & except Pennsylvania and Mainne indicated statistically
Hasshino (2003) have observeed that regionnal variations in significcant increasingg trends for teemperature. Inn the case of
thesses climatic parameters can be mucch larger, and a precipittation, the staates of New Hampshire
H andd Maine were
connsiderable spatiial and temporaal variations may
m exist betweeen found randomly disttributed, whilee the other sttates showed
clim
matically differrent regions. The
T trend anallysis and channge statisticcally significannt increasing trend. The Seen’s slope is
poinnt detection in temperature, precipitation,
p ruunoff series haave widely used non-parrametric test for f expressing the slope in
been investigated by many reseaarchers throughhout the worldd to meteorological seriess (Lettenmaier et al, 1994; El-Shaarawi &
knoow the possible impact of cllimate change on hydrologiccal Piegorssh, 2001, Jain & Kumar, 20122).
cycle and water resources
r using
g different paraametric and noon-
paraametric tests (Serra
( et al (2
2001); Smadi (2006); Katiraaie The objjective of this study is to idenntify change pooint and trend
etall. (2007); Saabohi (2009); Shirghomali & Ghahram man in the historical tem mperature seriies of Raipurr, India. The
(20009); Al Buharri (2009); Rosh han et al (2011) etc.). Fu ett al Pettitt’ss test for channge point deteection and Maann-Kendall’s
(20007) studied thhe impact of climatic variaability on streaam test aloong with Senn’s slope for trend analysiis have been
ws in Yellow river basin off China and foound that climaate
flow appliedd on differentt minimum and a maximumm temperature
variiability had a significant
s imp
pact on streamm-flow and it wasw series. The results willw help decision makers to take into
senssitive to both precipitation
p an
nd temperature. consideeration the imppact of climatee change on waater resources
planninng and manageement.
Thee parametric anda non-param metric methods under statisticcal
appproach are usedd to detect eithher a data of a given
g set follows STUD
DYAREA
a diistribution or having
h a trendd at a fix levell of significance. Raipur,, the capital of o Chhattisgarrh state of Inddia has been
Varrious non-paraametric tests including
i Mannn-Kendall’s test selectedd for study off statistical chaange and trendd detection in
andd Pettit’s test are
a widely useed to detect trrend and channge meteorological param meters due to t climate chhange and/or
poinnt in historical series of climaatic and hydrological variablles. human induced intervvention due to rapid growth of o population,
Sivaakumar et al (22012) have conducted a studdy to detect treend urban development and industrialization. Raaipur district
in meteorological
m l parameters in ncluding averaage temperatuure, situatedd in the fertiile plains of Chhattisgarh region falls
relaative humidity, wind speed and rainfall for f the period of betweeen 22o 33' N to 21o14' N Latituude and 82o 6' E to 81o38' E
Longituude (Figure 1)). The district occupies the south eastern
1. Scientist,, National Institutee of Hydrology, RC
C Bhopal, WALMII
part off the upper Maahanadi valleyy and bordering hills in the
Campus, Bhopal (M.P.) Ind dia south and
a the east. Riiver Mahanadi is the principaal river of this
district with its tributtaries being Seendur, Pairy, Sondur,
S Joan,
E-mail: rkjaiswal_sagar
r @yahoo.co.in
@
Kharunn and Shivnathh traverses the district. Rivver Mahanadi
2. Scientist,, National Institutee of Hydrology, Jaal Vigyan Bhavan, crossess the district diiagonally from
m its south westtern corner to
Roorkee (Uttarakhand) Ind dia 
Northerrn boundaries. The monthlyy minimum annd maximum
3. Astt Proffessor, Maulana Azad National Instiitute of temperature from 19771 to 2012 coollected from IndiraI Gandhi
Technoloogy, Bhopal (M.P.)) India  Agriculture Universitty, Raipur (Chhhattisgarh) Inddia have been
Manuscrript No.: 1418  used inn the analysis. The
T box plot shhowing the chaaracteristics

39
 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc., Vol 35, No. 4, October 2015
 

Fig. 1: Location map of Raipur in Chhattisgarh state of India

40 
 J. Indian
n Water Resoour. Soc., Voll 35, No. 4, October
O 2015
 

 
Minnimum temperature

 
Maxximum temperrature

Fig. 2: Box
B plot of miinimum and maximum
m tem
mperature

of minimum
m and maximum tem
mperature series were presentted Kang & Yusof (20122); Ahmad & Deni (2013)). The Pettitt’s
in Figure
F 2. test dettects a significaant change in a time series when
w the exact
time off the change iss unknown. According
A to Peettitt’s test, if
ME
ETHODOL
LOGY x1, x2, x3, …xn is a series
s of obserrved data having a change
Petttitt’s Test foor Change Po
oint Analysiss point at
a t in such a wayw so that x1, x2 …, xt has a distribution
Petttitt (1979) haas introduced the Pettitt’s test for channge function as F1(x) whiich is differentt from distribuution function
deteection is a nonn-parametric test
t used for evaluation
e of the
t F2(x) of
o second part of series xt+11, xt+2, xt+3 …, xn. The non-
occurrence of abrrupt changes in i climatic reccords (Gao et al, parameetric test statisstics Ut in thiss test may be described as
20009). Winningaaard et al (20 003) have menntioned that the t followss:
impportant reason for using thiss test lies in its sensitivity to t n
breaaks in the midddle of the tim
me series. The statistic used for
f Ut = ∑ ∑ sign( x t − xj) (1)
the Pettitt’s test has been exp plained by manny scientists for
f i =1 j =t +1
change detection in time seriees (Dhorde & Gadgil (2009);
41
 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc., Vol 35, No. 4, October 2015
 
⎡ 1, if ( xi − x j ) > 0 ⎤ According to this test, the null hypothesis H0 states that the
depersonalized data is a sample of n independent and
⎢ ⎥
sign( xt − x j ) = ⎢ 0, if ( xi − x j ) = 0 ⎥ (2) identically distributed random variables, there is no trend in
the data and no correlation between considered variable and
⎢⎣− 1, if ( xi − x j ) < 0⎥⎦ time, each ordering of the data set is equally likely. A positive
value of Z indicates an increasing trend in the time-series,
The test statistic counts the number of times a member of the while a negative Z indicates a decreasing trend. To test for
first sample exceeds a member of the second sample. The null either increasing or decreasing monotonic trend at p
hypothesis of the Pettitt’s test is the absence of a change point. significance level, the null hypothesis is rejected if the absolute
The test statistic Kt and the associated confidence level (ρ) value of Z is greater than Z(1-p/2); where Z(1-p/2) is obtained
used in the test may be described as: from the standard normal cumulative distribution table.
K t = Max U t (3) Sen’s Slope Estimator
The Sen’s slope estimator is a non-parametric test introduced
The test statistic Kt can also be compared with standard values by Theil (1950) and described by Sen (1968), Gilbert (1987)
at different confidence level for detection of change point in a and many others to determine slope in meteorological,
series. The critical values of Kt at 1% and 5% confidence hydrological and water quality parameters. The Sen’s slope
levels for Pettitt’s test was suggested by Winingaard et al estimator (β) is the median of all pair-wise slopes in the data
(2003). set.  In this method, the slopes (Ti) in all data pairs having N
data points can be computed by following equation.
Mann-Kendall’s Test for Trend Detection
The Mann-Kendall’s test is a non-parametric test does not x j − xk
require the data to be normally distributed. Tabari etal. (2011) Ti = i=1 ,2, 3…….N and j>k (9)
has observed that this test has low sensitivity to abrupt breaks j−k
due to inhomogeneous time series and recommended widely
Where, x1, x2, x3, ….. xj, xk, …. xN are data values and the
by the World Meteorological Organization for public
median of N values of Ti series can be obtained as Sen’s
application (Mitchell et al, 1996). In this test, each value in the
estimator of slope (β) by the following equation.
series is compared with others, always in sequential order. The
Mann-Kendall’s statistic can be written as ⎡ T N +1 ............ N − odd ⎤
n i −1 ⎢ 2 ⎥
S = ∑∑ sign ( xi − x j )           (4) β = ⎢1 ⎡ ⎤ ⎥ (10)
i =1 j =i ⎢ ⎢T N + T N + 2 ⎥ ............ N − even ⎥
where, n is the total length of data, xi and xj are two generic ⎣⎢ 2 ⎣ 2 2 ⎦ ⎦⎥
sequential data values, and function sign(xi-xj) assumes the ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
following values
Results of Change Point Analysis
⎡ 1, if ( xi − x j ) > 0 ⎤ For determination of change point in different monthly,
⎢ ⎥ annual, summer, rainy and winter season minimum and
sign( xt − x j ) = ⎢ 0, if ( xi − x j ) = 0 ⎥ (5)
maximum temperature, the Pittett’s test has been applied and
⎢⎣− 1, if ( xi − x j ) < 0⎥⎦ test statistics have been compared with standard values for
detection of change point. The results of the analysis have been
Under this test, the test statistic S is approximately normally presented in Table 1. From the analysis, it has been observed
distributed with the mean E(S) and the variance Var(S) can be that the minimum temperature series of March, July, August,
computed as follow: September, October, annual, summer and rainy season
depicted a change point mainly in 1995 and 2000. The change
E( S ) = 0 (6) point for a monthly series of minimum and maximum
1⎡ ⎤ temperature series has been presented in Figure 3. The series
Var ( S ) = ⎢ n ( n − i )( 2n + 5) − ∑ t (t − 1)( 2t + 5)⎥ (7) of maximum temperature confirmed the change point in the
n⎣ t ⎦ year 1995 in November series, year 1998 in December series
and subsequently year 1995 in winter season. From the
where, n is the length of time series, and t is the extent of any
given tie and Σt denotes the summation over all ties number of analysis, it may be concluded that most of change points occur
values. The standardized test statistics Z for this test can be during the period 1995 to 2000 as Raipur city and undergone
large scale industrial, urban and commercial growth after 1990.
computed by the following equation:
The industrial development of Chhattisgarh state got a boost
⎡ S −1 ⎤ and considered a relatively better industrial state with 21.94%
⎢ var( S ) , if S > 0⎥
share of manufacturing in state gross domestic product
⎢ ⎥ (8)
z=⎢ 0 if S = 0⎥ (SGDP) higher than national average of 17% after division
⎢ from Madhya Pradesh (M.P.) in the year 2001. The
−1 if S < 0⎥
⎢ ⎥ developmental activities of Chhattisgarh state can be
⎣ ⎦ understood by the fact that the percentage of manufacturing in
SGDP increased from 18.50% to 21.94% from 2000-01 to
42 
 J. Indian
n Water Resoour. Soc., Voll 35, No. 4, October
O 2015
 
Table-1: Resultts of change point analysis
Period Minim
mum Temperaature Maximu
um Temperatu
ure
Pettitt’s Shift Yeear of Pettitt’s
P S
Shift Yeaar of
Statistic shhift Statistic shift
Jan 96 No - 833 N
No -
Feb 195 No - 119 N
No -
Mar 210 Yes 20000 900 N
No -
Apr 196 No - 1440 N
No -
May 186 No - 722 N
No -
Jun 195 No - 922 N
No -
Jul 317 Yes 19995 1000 N
No -
Aug 317 Yes 19995 866 N
No -
Sep 252 Yes 19995 81 N
No -
Oct 222 Yes 19984 1443 N
No -
Nov 131 No - 217 Y
Yes 19995
Dec 181 No - 210 Y
Yes 19998
Annual 226 Yes 20000 1223 N
No -
Summer 252 Yes 20000 1442 N
No -
Rainy 383 Yes 19995 1002 N
No -
Winter 163 No - 2334 Y
Yes 19998

 
Fig.3: Change
C pointss in a monthlyy minimum and maximum temperature
t seeries

43
 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc., Vol 35, No. 4, October 2015
2008-09, while the same for M.P. decreased from 15.08% to
12.73% during the same period (Papola et al, 2011).
Trend Detection Analysis
Considering the results of change point analysis and
development scenarios in Raipur, the trend analysis of
minimum and maximum temperature have been carried out for
three different periods namely P-1 (from 1971 to 1995), P-2
(covers time from 1986 to 2012) and P-3 covers the whole
series of variable. For determination of trend, Mann-Kendall’s
95% confidence level. The test statistics and possible trends
in different series of maximum and minimum temperature
have been presented in Table 2 & 3.
The minimum temperature for the period 1971 to 1995 (P-1)
showed a significant falling trend in April, June to October,
annual, summer and rainy seasons series at 5% significance
level. The trend analysis confirmed a significant rising trend in
minimum temperature during March to September, annual and
all seasonal series during period 1986 to 2012 (P-2). Further a

Table-2: Mann-Kendall’s test statistic and trend in different periods of minimum temperature series
Period 1971 to 1995 (P-1) 1986 to 2012 (P-2) 1971 to 2012 (P-3)
Test Trend Test Trend Test Trend
statistics statistics statistics
Jan -0.26 - 0.89 - 0.09 -
Feb -1.01 - 1.59 - 1.14 -
Mar -0.98 - 2.90 Rising 1.29 -
Apr -2.49 Falling 2.90 Rising 0.55 -
May -1.40 - 3.14 Rising 1.33 -
Jun -2.13 Falling 2.57 Rising 0.90 -
July -3.05 Falling 4.43 Rising 2.21 Rising
Aug -2.16 Falling 4.13 Rising 2.63 Rising
Sept -3.12 Falling 3.57 Rising 1.09 -
Oct -3.70 Falling 1.82 - -2.05 Falling
Nov -0.84 - 1.24 - 0.85 -
Dec -1.17 - 1.72 - 0.79 -
Annual -3.18 Falling 4.18 Rising 1.25 -
Summer -2.13 Falling 3.83 Rising 1.69 -
Rainy -3.96 Falling 3.82 Rising 1.36 -
Winter -1.49 - 2.92 Rising 1.28 -

Table-3: Mann-Kendall’s test statistic and trend in different periods of maximum temperature series
Period 1971 to 1995 (P-1) 1986 to 2012 (P-2) 1971 to 2012 (P-3)
Test Trend Test Trend Test Trend
statistics statistics statistics
Jan -0.12 - 0.89 - 0.22 -
Feb 0.02 - 0.33 - 0.77 -
Mar -0.70 - 0.96 - 0.18 -
Apr -1.38 - -0.23 - -1.34 -
May -0.75 - 0.00 - -0.57 -
Jun -0.70 - 0.61 - -0.47 -
July 0.80 - -0.09 - 0.57 -
Aug 0.28 - 0.05 - 0.71 -
Sept -0.59 - 0.21 - 0.55 -
Oct -1.05 - 1.27 - 0.76 -
Nov 0.28 - 1.73 - 2.38 Rising
Dec 0.32 - 1.85 - 2.25 Rising
Annual -1.40 - 1.41 - 0.26 -
Summer -2.22 - 0.29 - -1.44 -
Rainy 0.21 Fall 0.46 - 1.04 -
Winter -0.18 - 1.56 - 1.96 Rising

test has been applied on different monthly, annual and seasonal
series of minimum and maximum temperature and compared
with standard value of normal cumulative distribution table at
95% confidence level which is ±1.96. A test statistic having
value more than 1.96 confirmed significant rising trend, while
-1.96 confirmed significant falling trend at 5% significance or
significant rise has been detected in minimum temperature
during July, August and rainy season when complete series
from 1971 to 2012 (P-3) was examined. From the analysis of
trends in minimum temperature series, it may be concluded
that many monthly, seasonal and annual series exhibited rising
trend in P-2 period (1986-2012). The maximum temperature
44 
 J. Indian
n Water Resoour. Soc., Voll 35, No. 4, October
O 2015
 
seriies of Raipuur showed a significant rising trend in Sen’s Slope Estimaator
Novvember, Decem mber and winteer season in P-33 period (1971 to The Sen’s Slope was computed to know k the prevaailing trend in
2012). No series in P-1 (1971 to 1995) and P-2 (1986-20112) monthlly, seasonal and annual series of minimum m and
periiods indicated any significantt trend and it may
m be concludded maximuum temperaturre of Raipur. The T Sen’s sloppe parameters
thatt the maximum m temperature canc be consideered less affectted (β) for minimum andd maximum tem mperature seriies have been
by climate changge and anthrop pogenic activitties in the stuudy presentted in Table 4.4 The analysiss of Sen’s sloppe estimators
areaa. The annuual series off minimum and maximuum clearly indicated a poositive trend in P-2 (1986 to 2012)
2 and P-3
tem
mperature whenn plotted and fitted
f linearly, it was observved (1971-22012) periodss for both minimum annd maximum
thatt both series exxhibited falling
g trend during period
p P-1, whhile temperature series whhile the same wasw mostly neegative in P-1
risinng trend in P-2P and P-3 periods with strong trend in (1971-11995) period.
minnimum temperaature series (Fiigure 4).

 
Fig.4: Fitting
F of lineaar trends in minimum
m and maximum
m tem
mperature seriies
45
 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc., Vol 35, No. 4, October 2015
 
Table-4: Sen’s Slope for minimum and maximum temperature series
Period Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature
1971 to 1995 1986 to 2012 1971 to 2012 1971 to 1995 1986 to 2012 1971 to 2012
(P-1) (P-2) (P-3) (P-1) (P-2) (P-3)
Jan -.013 +0.057 +0.005 -0.002 +0.020 +0.003
Feb +0.043 +0.024 +0.020 +0.003 +0.030 +0.012
Mar -0.041 +0.150 +0.023 -0.043 +0.036 +0.004
Apr -0.068 +0.103 +0.011 -0.042 +0.005 -0.024
May -0.070 +0.073 +0.031 -0.035 +0.011 -0.013
Jun -0.088 +0.088 +0.016 -0.061 +0.033 -0.014
July -0.061 +0.036 +0.024 +0.029 -0.056 +0.011
Aug -0.051 +0.060 +0.028 +0.003 -0.009 +0.006
Sept -0.070 +0.039 +0.013 -0.008 -0.026 +0.004
Oct -0.099 -0.035 -0.021 -0.030 +0.044 +0.009
Nov -0.059 +0.084 +0.031 +0.011 -0.021 +0.036
Dec -0.062 +0.241 +0.026 +0.008 +0.100 +0.033
Annual -0.070 +0.064 +0.013 -0.019 +0.012 -0.004
Summer -0.056 +0.087 +0.019 -0.055 +0.009 -0.022
Rainy -0.077 +0.022 +0.011 +0.005 -0.009 +0.010
Winter -0.050 +0.090 +0.019 -0.008 +0.033 +0.021
 
CONCLUSION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Water resources sector is the most affected sector due to Authors are thankful to the Indira Gandhi Agriculture
possible climate change as the availability of water is directly University, Raipur and State Water Data Centre, Govt. of
influenced by different climatological variables. In the present Chhattisgarh, Raipur, Chhattisgarh (India) for providing the
study, change point detection using Pettitt’s test followed by data for this study.
trend analysis with the help of Mann-Kendall’s test have been
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