Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109

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Journal of Hydrology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Climatic sensitivity of streamflow timing in the extratropical western

Andes Cordillera
Gonzalo Cortés a, Ximena Vargas a, James McPhee a,b,⇑
a
Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Av. Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile
b
Advanced Mining Technology Center, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Av. Tupper 2007, Santiago, Chile

a r t i c l e i n f o s u m m a r y

Article history: This paper presents an analysis on the hydrological regimes from several rivers flowing from the western
Received 28 October 2010 slope of the Andes Cordillera. We compiled a database of 40 unimpaired average monthly streamflow
Received in revised form 15 April 2011 records located in central and southern Chile, spanning the region between latitudes 30°S and 40°S
Accepted 9 May 2011
and the period between years 1961 and 2006. River categories encompass snowmelt, mixed and rainfall
Available online 17 May 2011
This manuscript was handled by K.
dominated watersheds. The water year hydrograph center of timing (CT) is used as an indicator of flow
Georgakakos, Editor-in-Chief, with the regime and as a proxy for streamflow distribution throughout the year. The CT for each river is correlated
assistance of Ercan Kahya, Associate Editor to local climatic variables such as seasonal temperature and precipitation, and to large-scale circulation
indexes. We assess CT trends using the Mann–Kendall test for varying time windows within the study
Keywords: period. Overall results for the 1961–2006 period show a significant (95% confidence level) negative trend
Climate change (CT date shifting towards earlier in the year) for 23 out of the 40 analyzed series. However, when studying
Streamflow timing time windows within the entire period there seems to be a break in the trend during the late 1970s, with
Time series analysis positive or null changes for the latter half of the study period for most of the stations analyzed. We found
Hydroclimatology that even though the CT is significantly correlated (r > 0.5) to temperature indexes in the snowfed water-
Andes Cordillera sheds, there has been no significant change in CT timing for most of these watersheds despite docu-
mented warming on the region. CT for all types of watersheds present clear correlation to
precipitation indexes (r > 0.8), and we observed high and significant correlation between CT and ONI,
SOI and MEI indexes for all the study region: higher (lower) precipitation amounts during El Niño (La
Niña), rather than temperature variations, seem to be the most important factor controlling CT timing
during these episodes. In order of importance, the CT showed higher correlation with annual precipita-
tion amounts and timing, MEI, ONI and SOI, mean winter and spring temperature, and finally PDO. The
detected trends are consistent only with trends in precipitation, as rivers that showed high correlation
to temperature do not show any trend. These conclusions suggest that rivers on the region show a differ-
ent response to temperature changes when compared to rivers of similar regime in the northern hemi-
sphere, and that precipitation amount and timing are the source of most of the variability in
streamflow timing for both snowmelt and rainfall dominated watersheds. Temperature induced variabil-
ity in streamflow timing should be studied with more precise hydrological models, as the CT has a com-
plex behavior due to multiple climatical dependencies. Studying such behavior using only historical data
might be insufficient for drawing more precise conclusions.
Ó 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Hydrologic regime changes over time in basins with little or no
human intervention are good indicators of climate change: they
represent a univariate response to local climate inputs and stream-
flow should be sensitive to changes in these inputs, both in its
magnitude as well as in its temporal distribution. The understand-
ing of future behavior of sensitive watersheds under climate
⇑ Corresponding author. Address: Av. Blanco Encalada 2002, ZIP: 8370449,
Santiago, Chile. Tel.: +56 2 9784397.
E-mail address: jmcphee@ing.uchile.cl (J. McPhee).
change must draw insights from the past behavior of these basins,
moreover when climatic records show sustained recent trends in
precipitation and temperature.
In Chile, recent studies show a strong warming trend in the Cen-
tral depression and Andean regions between 17°S and 37°S, (along
the middle and eastern axes of the country, respectively), and a
slight negative trend in precipitation in the regions south of 35°S
(Carrasco et al., 2005; Quintana and Aceituno, 2007; Falvey and
Garreaud, 2009). In particular, Falvey and Garreaud show in their
results that most elevated (>150 m.a.s.l.) meteorological stations
from 30°S to 40°S have experienced significant warming for the
1979–2006 period. Stations on the central valleys of Chile also

0022-1694/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.05.013
94 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109
show warming for the aforementioned latitudes. On the other
hand, cooling has been observed in coastal stations. Stations lo-
cated in mid to high elevation sites should be studied when analyz-
ing impact on Chilean rivers, as most of the flow occurs on an East
to West direction, with large parts of the watersheds areas located
in elevated or central valley locations. Rivers in central Chile could
be severely affected by such changes as they present a higher
relative importance of snowmelt-derived rather than to rainfall-
derived streamflow. As such, a higher sensitivity to temperature
related changes could be expected (Pellicciotti et al., 2007; Vicuña
et al., 2010a,b; McPhee et al., 2010; Melo et al., 2010; Masiokas
et al., 2010).
In this region, rivers flowing from the Andes are the main source
of water supply for energy generation, irrigation, and drinking
water – all water uses with strong seasonal variations –, and re-
source availability throughout the year is of substantial importance
for the Chilean economy. Therefore, it is of key relevance to quantify
the impact of climatic trends in the streamflow regime as water
management policies are designed according to the average water
year hydrographs, assuming hydrological invariant conditions or
stationarity for streamflow records. Given the possible influence
of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions over climate, several
authors have discussed the validity of the stationarity assumption
and its possible negative repercussions for water planning (Kahya
and Kalayc, 2004; Milly et al., 2008). Water availability for central
Chile, which concentrates the majority of Chilean population and
agricultural activity, could be threatened as higher temperatures
onset an earlier spring melt or reduce the amount of snow accumu-
lation in mid-elevation Andes catchments during winter. South of
36°S, where Chilean climate becomes more humid and the Andes
Cordillera decreases in elevation, discharge coming from liquid pre-
cipitation represents the most important contribution to annual
streamflow, therefore varying precipitation timing could alter the
relation between demand patterns and run-of-river generated
hydropower. Snowmelt does not represent a significant contribu-
tion to streamflow for most rivers south of 36°S but a rise in tem-
perature could lead to increasing flood events due to increasing
liquid water partitioning in winter storms, leading to the reduction
in the accumulation of thin but flood-mitigating snow packs.
Because of Chile’s unique location relative to the Andes Cordil-
lera and the resulting physiographic characteristics of mountain-
ous watersheds –with relatively small contributing areas, high
slopes and generally stationary land use patterns, many Chilean
rivers have the potential to be accurate indicators of general clima-
tological trends in the mountainous ecosystems of the extra trop-
ical Andes. This is particularly true of piedmont-located discharge
gages, which integrate climatic information over large and often
sparsely monitored regions. In this context, Masiokas et al.
(2006) show a significant correlation between snowpack, annual
streamflow volumes and climatic patterns such as ENSO and SST
for central Andes (30–37°S) high watersheds, while similar studies
performed in Europe and North America (Aguado et al., 1992;
Chiew and McMahon, 1996; Cayan et al., 2001; Hodgkins et al.,
2003; Stewart et al., 2005; Birsan et al., 2005), show a change in
hydrological regime, with earlier melting snow packs, earlier
‘‘spring coming’’ and a redistribution of seasonal volume through-
out the year for rivers that show important correlations to temper-
ature. Glacier retreat studies focusing on high areas in the
extratropical Andes have been published (Casassa, 1995; Rivera
et al., 2000, 2002), with results showing a general negative trend
in glacier fronts. It is of interest to link these findings with the inte-
grated response of river flows to climate change, in order to better
conceptualize hydrological processes relating glacier and snow-
pack behavior and runoff contributions.
The impact on hydrological regimes of a rise in temperature in
the high Andes has yet to be estimated accurately: in high
watersheds temperatures drops well below freezing point during
winter months and projected temperature changes might not af-
fect flow regimes associated with snowpack occurring in higher
elevations. Hydrological models have been used to study the im-
pact of future temperature scenarios (based on IPCC reports) in
the hydrological regime and seasonal flow partition in Chile (Mena,
2009; Mardones, 2009; Vicuña et al., 2010a,b), and elsewhere
(Dettinger et al., 2004; Young et al., 2009). Model results in most
of these exercises do project changes in the runoff regime with a
redistribution of streamflow volumes due to higher temperatures
during winter and spring. Changes are manifested even at a
monthly time scale; including not only changes in extreme or daily
events but also in average flows for entire seasons. However, cli-
mate scenarios used for these studies are based on temperature
and precipitation changes larger in magnitude than those observed
during the historical hydroclimatic record in Chile, and the most
recent available GCM simulations are unable to capture variability
related to PDO or ENSO fluctuations. Hence, it is not straightfor-
ward to anticipate changes in streamflow regime nor to associate
directly temperature and precipitation changes with such change
without first analyzing and understanding the relative sensitivity
of individual watersheds and its relation to geographical condi-
tions, local weather patterns and large scale circulation indexes.
The main objective of this work is to present an analysis of the
sensitivity to climatic forcings of the hydrologic regime of the main
rivers flowing along the western extratropical front of the Andes
Cordillera based on historical records, in order to provide a basis
to future, more detailed studies of climate change impacts and
adaptations. Additionally, we analyze the variation that the hydro-
logical regimes in Chilean rivers have experienced in the second
half of the 20th century, with an emphasis in Chile’s Center-South
regions, where most of the Chilean population and economic activ-
ities are located. We attempt to identify statistically significant
trends for diverse time windows throughout the time period, and
we aim at relating these trends to observed climatic changes.
2. Data and methodology
The area of study corresponds to a transitional climatic zone be-
tween very arid northern Chile and the rainy Southern part of the
Country, from latitudes 30°S to 40°S. The northern edge of the
study area has a semi-arid climate, with rainfall strongly concen-
trated during the winter months of June, July and August, and prac-
tically little or no rainfall during the rest of the year (Fig. 1). Going
south, precipitation distribution extends towards fall and spring
(however still most of it is still concentrated during the winter
months), in what could be classified as a Mediterranean climate
(Kottek et al., 2006). Two mountainous chains, the Andes and a
lower coastal range, modulate the climate of this region, inducing
orographic enhancement and rain shadows on their western and
eastern slopes, respectively.
Streamflow, temperature and precipitation series (Table 1) were
obtained from the ‘‘Dirección General de Aguas’’, the Chilean gov-
ernment entity in charge of measuring and managing water re-
sources in Chile. Streamflow records likely to have been affected
by human intervention – because of major water works such as
artificial reservoirs and basin transfers that distort the original nat-
ural response to climate, as well as because of identifiable signifi-
cant changes in land cover throughout the period of study – were
not used in this analysis. However, most of the compiled records
were affected by gaps in information. These gaps in average
monthly streamflow information were filled whenever possible
through standard statistical methods using neighboring stations
showing high correlation coefficients in monthly data values. In
developing countries, coverage and data quality are usually an
 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109
350
Monthly Precipitation (mm)
Deviation from Mean (°C)
300
Monthly Temperature
250
200
150
100
50
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
Fig. 1. Meteorological stations climatology disaggregated into two geographical zones. Temperature is shown as a deviation from average temperature as strong temperature
gradients are present if a latitudinal transect of the Andes is analyzed, magnitude change, with lower average temperatures during winter and higher during summer, are
correspondent to the Mediterranean climate observed in most of the study area.
important hurdle to be dealt with when undertaking historical
hydrologic and climatic analyses. Therefore, a significant amount
of effort was spent in data quality assessment in order to guarantee
the suitability of the final hydroclimatic database. Stations with
more than 20% filled and missing data (data that couldn’t be filled)
or stations with more than 10% of unfilled data gaps (due to the
lack of correlations with nearby stations) were discarded from
the study. Table 1 presents the total number of missing years that
couldn’t be filled (final gaps). Data was collected from stream gages
located between latitudes 30°S and 40°S in rivers running mostly
from east to west and representing a wide range of hydrological re-
gimes – rainfall or snowmelt dominated-depending on the altitude
and latitude of the basin. Fig. 2 presents a general overview of the
study area, indicating the location of streamflow and meteorolog-
ical stations.
Precipitation and temperature records were obtained from
meteorological stations with at least 35 years of consistent data,
but gaps in information were also found. However, these gaps
are much less frequent than those observed in streamflow data,
and only isolated years or months are missing on these records. Be-
sides, as meteorological information is used only for correlation
analysis, these gaps do not affect the trend analysis. Meteorological
stations were selected based on streamflow station proximity, and
data records consist of monthly temperature averages and monthly
precipitation totals. However, due to the low density of Chilean
meteorological networks, climate representativeness of stations
south of 37°S is questionable as there are no stations above
1000 m.a.s.l. with enough data for the study.
As an indicator of the distribution of streamflow throughout the
year, we adopt the water year hydrograph centroid or center of
timing, from now on, ‘‘CT’’ (Stewart et al., 2005). We compute this
parameter using monthly mean streamflow with,
P12
Q i ti
CT ¼ Pi¼1
12
½months
i¼1 Q i
where Qi is the monthly mean streamflow, t the departure in
months from the start of the water year and i 2 ½1; 12 is the month
of the water year. In Chile, the water year is considered to run from
April 1st to March 31st of the following year.
This method of analysis has been used for measuring stream-
flow timing (Hodgkins et al., 2003; Stewart et al., 2004, 2005),
and the CT varies according to the distribution of observed stream-
95
30 - 35°S
35 - 40°S
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
flow volumes throughout the year. We chose to use monthly
streamflow data over daily values because missing gaps in daily
data (frequent in Chile) increase the difficulty of calculating the
CT, as missing data in monthly series can be filled using standard
statistical methods. Nevertheless, for rivers with good quality of
daily data we compared the CT obtained using monthly and daily
flows and obtained very good agreement between both quantities.
The comparison was performed calculating the CT obtained from
daily data for a selected river that presented no missing informa-
tion, replacing the ‘‘ti’ term in the equation for day number since
April 1st and the Qi term for daily mean streamflow. Our compar-
ison resulted in that the maximum error between using monthly
data and daily data for this particular dataset is of only 1.6 days
or 0.44% per year of calculation. A further analysis using randomly
generated time series of 1000 years of daily data allowed us to esti-
mate the distribution of errors stemming from using monthly in-
stead of daily streamflow values. Results are shown in Fig. 3.
Again, the maximum error observed is of 0.6% or 2.1 days. This
small error margin allows us to identify changes of less than one
month despite using monthly data, as the monthly CT is an almost
perfect proxy of the daily CT. The CT is also highly correlated to
other measures of timing such as the spring onset (Stewart et al.,
2004), with significant correlation coefficients on the order of
0.7, indicating that the CT is also a good proxy for this other timing
measure. However, due to the nature of this work, which includes
watersheds with no snowmelt-generated runoff, we chose to focus
only in CT as an indicator of hydrologic regime change.
In order to better understand possible trends in CT, we also
compute and analyze seasonal fractional volume time series. This
index is calculated dividing seasonal volume by total water year
discharge (April–March). The seasons analyzed here include
April–May (AM), June–July–August (JJA), September–October–
November (SON) and December–January–February–March (DJFM).
We also compute total annual volume. The four ‘‘seasons’’ are cho-
sen based on the typical hydrology of Chilean rivers, which are
mainly divided into two big groups: snowmelt dominated and
rainfall dominated. For the first group the AM season represents
the driest season as these are the months with little rainfall, which
falls mostly as snow, thus not impacting streamflow volumes un-
less high temperatures occur. For rainfall-dominated basins these
two months represent the first volume increases due to liquid pre-
cipitation. During the JJA season, snow dominated basins exhibit
very low flows due to low temperatures and a predominance of
96 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109

Table 1
Streamflow stations used in the study. Meteorological stations appear in bold.

N° DGA Station name Period of record Missing Station used for LAT S LON W Alt. (m) Basin area Mean value SDC
years correlation PP/T° (km2) (m3/s, mm or °C) type
08130006-2 Rivadavia (Precip., I) 1961–2007 – – 29.97 70.55 820 – 94.5 –
08130006-2 La Laguna (Temp., II) 1974–2007 – – 30.2 70.04 3160 – 8.0 –
04501001-5 Hurtado en San Agustin 1961–2007 1 I/II 30.46 70.54 2035 656 2.7 2
04514001-6 Mostazal en Cuestecita 1961–2007 1 I/II 30.8 70.6 1250 353 1.7 2
04512001-5 Tascadero en Desembocadura 1961–2007 2 I/II 31.01 70.66 1370 238 1.5 2
04721001-1 Illapel en las Burras 1961–2007 1 I/II 31.51 70.81 1079 600 2.7 2
04723002-1 Choapa en Cuncumén 1961–2007 1 I/II 31.97 70.59 1200 1172 10.0 1
05414001-0 Putaendo en Rdo. Los Patos 1961–2007 – III/IV 32.5 70.58 1218 927 8.4 1
05410002-7 Aconcagua en Chacabuquito 1961–2007 – III/IV 32.85 70.51 950 2400 34.1 1
05401003-6 Juncal en Juncal 1961–2007 – III/IV 32.86 70.17 1800 426 6.0 1
05403006-1 Riecillos (Precip., III) 1961–2007 – – 32.92 70.36 1290 – 558.0 –
05722001-5 Arrayán en Montosa 1961–2007 – IV 33.33 70.46 970 219 1.7 2
05722002-3 Mapocho en los Almendros 1961–2007 – IV 33.37 70.45 990 620 6.5 1
05710001-K Maipo en el Manzano 1961–2007 – IV 33.58 70.67 850 4968 115.6 1
05707002-1 Colorado antes junta Maipo 1961–2007 3 IV 33.58 70.37 890 1713 32.3 1
05703002-K El Yeso 1961–2007 – IV 33.67 70.08 2475 351 8.3 1
05703008-9 El Yeso (Temp./Precip., IV) 1962–2007 – – 33.67 70.08 2475 – 8.5/621 –
05702001-6 Volcán en Queltehues 1961–2007 – IV 33.81 70.21 1365 523 8.4 1
06028001-0 Tinguiririca Bajo Briones 1961–2007 – V/VI 34.77 70.83 560 1439 51.6 1
07103001-6 Claro en los Queñes 1961–2007 – V/VI 34.98 70.8 900 350 22.8 2
07103003-2 Los Queñes (Precip., V) 1964–2007 – – 35.01 70.8 720 – 1398 –
07104002-k Teno en Junta Claro 1961–2007 – V/VI 35 70.82 660 1188 58.6 2
07116005-k Potrero Grande (Temp., VI) 1967–2007 – – 35.16 71.1 450 – 12.5 –
07372001-k Claro en Camarico 1961–2007 2 VII/VI 35.17 71.38 220 684 18.9 3
07116001-7 Upeo en Upeo 1961–2007 5 VII/VI 35.17 71.08 450 356 7.3 4
07355002-5 Ancoa en el Morro 1961–2007 2 VII 35.9 71.28 200 194 22 3
07355002-5 Ancoa (Temp./Precip., VII) 1964–2007 – – 35.9 71.28 200 – 13.1/1645 –
07336001-3 Cauquenes en el Arrayán 1961–2007 5 VII 36.02 72.38 590 658 8.2 4
07335001-8 Perquilauquen en Quella 1961–2007 1 VII 36.05 72.08 120 1995 57.9 4
07350001-k Longavi en la Quiriquina 1961–2007 2 VII 36.22 71.45 471 641 46.5 3
07330001-0 Perquilauquen en San Manuel 1961–2007 – VII 36.37 71.62 281 326 33.3 4
08106001-0 Ñuble en San Fabián 1961–2007 1 VIII 36.57 71.55 410 1709 110.8 3
08104001-K Sauce antes junta Ñuble 1961–2007 1 VIII 36.65 71.27 620 595 34.2 2
08130006-2 Diguillin (Temp./Precip., VIII) 1961–2007 – – 36.87 71.65 670 – 11.9/2137 –
08130002-K Diguillín en San Lorenzo 1961–2007 2 VIII 36.9 71.57 598 165 16.6 3
08323002-9 Duqueco en Villecura 1961–2007 8 VIII 37.55 72.02 228 918 51.1 3
08317002-6 Lirquen en Co. El Padre 1961–2007 - VIII 37.77 71.85 340 68 7.7 4
08351001-3 Malleco en Collipulli 1961–2007 - VIII 37.97 72.42 135 428 27.2 4
09101001-1 Purén en Trananmán 1961–2007 1 VIII 38.03 73.02 90 377 10.0 3
09102001-7 Lumaco en Lumaco 1961–2007 1 IX/VIII 38.15 72.9 70 1054 17.4 4
09113001-7 Quillén en Galvarino 1961–2007 1 IX/VIII 38.4 72.78 140 734 20.0 4
09123001-1 Cautín en Rari Ruca 1961–2007 – IX/VIII 38.42 72 425 1365 94.0 3
09127001-3 Muco en Pte, Muco 1961–2007 – IX/VIII 38.62 72.42 250 650 141.0 4
09131001-5 Quepe en Vilcún 1961–2007 3 IX/VIII 38.68 72.22 292 386 32.1 3
09404002-7 Los Laureles (Precip., IX) 1961–2007 – – 38.98 72.23 190 – 2027 –
09404001-9 Allipén en los Laureles 1961–2007 – IX/VIII 38.98 72.22 190 1503 136.5 3
09416001-4 Liucura en Liucura 1961–2007 – IX/VIII 39.25 71.82 402 359 31.3 3
09420001-6 Toltén en Villarrica 1961–2007 – IX/VIII 39.27 72.22 250 2880 261.8 3
09412001-2 Trancura en Curarrehue 1961–2007 – IX/VIII 39.35 71.77 400 341 30.6 3

solid precipitation, while southern or lower basins present the
highest streamflow volumes due to the predominance of liquid
precipitation. SON season represents the beginning of the melt sea-
son on snow dominated watersheds, while in rainfall dominated
basins spring storms occur frequently; thus observed streamflow
volumes remain high. Finally, DJFM months typically show the
highest runoff volumes on snow dominated basins due to snow-
melt-derived streamflow, while in rain dominated basins stream-
flow reaches its minimum during this time of the year because of
the lack of precipitation or snowmelt derived streamflow. The
assessment of fractional seasonal flow trends will further enhance
the comprehension on the mechanisms that control streamflow
volume distribution throughout the year, and also it will provide
a better understanding of the trends that the CT could present
(or not) over time.
As a complement of the previous analysis, results for different
rivers are classified according to the relative importance of the
SON + DJFM discharge when compared to the total annual runoff:
four categories are established according to this ratio, with values
>0.75, >0.6, >0.45 and <0.3 corresponding to SDC 1, 2, 3 and 4
respectively. The first two categories represent rivers with clear
snow-dominated regimes and are located mostly north of 35°S,
while SDC 3 rivers usually present a mixed regime but with a
slightly higher importance of winter flows, and occasional snow-
melt contributions during spring months. SDC 4 represents a clear,
rain-dominated streamflow regime. Other grouping categories
such as geographical clustering analysis (e.g. Rubio-Álvarez and
McPhee, 2010) have been discussed, but categorization of rivers
by analyzing seasonal flow ratio to total volume was deemed suf-
ficient as this categorization is intended for result clarification
only. Four examples of these watersheds and their respective mean
hydrographs, along with monthly values of the precipitation sta-
tion used for correlation analysis in each case, are presented in
Fig. 4.
 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109 97

74°W 72°W 70°W 68°W 66°W ables measured across the tropical Pacific Ocean (Wolter, 1987;
Chiew and McMahon, 1996). The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is a
three month running mean of NOAA ERSST.v2 SST anomalies in
30°S
the Nino 3.4 region (5 N-5S, 120–170 W), based on the 1971–
0 100 200 Kilometers
2000 base period. The Troup SOI (Southern Oscillation Index,
Troup, 1965) is defined as ten times the standardized value of Ta-
Elevation (m.a.s.l.)
33°S hiti minus Darwin mean sea level pressure. It is highly correlated
0 - 500
in a negative way to the MEI index (Chiew and McMahon, 1996),
500 - 1500
with correlation coefficients ranging between 0.7 and 0.85.
1500 - 3000
Large-scale climatic indexes values were obtained from the
3000 - 7000
36°S NOAA-ESRL website (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov).
Ocean
We evaluated the CT and fractional volumes evolution in time
using the Mann–Kendall test for trend. This non-parametric test
Station type identifies monotonic trends in time and, because it is rank based,
Streamflow
39°S has the advantage of being robust to outlying data values (Helsel
Meteorological
and Hirsch, 1992). The Mann–Kendall test has been used in many
studies as an indicator of trends for hydro-climatic variables, and
applications in streamflow timing trend assessment have been
42°S widely documented (Lettenmaier et al., 1994; Lins and Slack,
1999; Zhang et al., 2001; Burn and Hag Elnur, 2002; Hodgkins
et al., 2003; Kahya and Kalayc, 2004; Birsan et al., 2005; Pellicciotti
Fig. 2. Study area and location of stations. et al., 2007; Kumar et al., 2009). This test is particularly useful for
trend detection in hydroclimatic variables, because changes are not
necessarily linear and traditional linear regression analyses may
30
not be sufficiently reliable. However, the Mann–Kendall test has
the disadvantage of overstating statistical significance of observed
trends when Long Term Persistence (LTP) is present in the time
25
series (Cohn and Lins, 2005). This issue has not been assessed in
Number of obsevrations

this work as the presence of Long Term Persistence itself on hydro-

20
logical time series is still discussed, and the brief period of record
available for this study limits further conclusions regarding LTP.
15 Therefore, in this work, the use of this test will be limited to short
term trend detection (trends during the 1961–2006 period and
10 within internal time windows). The formulation of the test follows
(adapted from Kumar et al., 2009).
5 Let x1, x2, x3, ... , xn be a time series of length n, then the Mann–
Kendall statistic S is given by the following equation:
0 X
n1 X
n
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 S¼ sgnðxj  xi Þ
Error (days) i¼1 j¼iþ1

Fig. 3. Histogram of errors between using daily data or monthly data for the where
calculation of the CT. 8
< 1 for x > 0
>
We calculated the correlation coefficient between the CT and lo- sgnðxÞ ¼ 0 for x ¼ 0
>
:
cal climatic variables (temperature, precipitation and large-scale 1 for x < 0
climatic indexes) using Pearson’s ‘‘r’’ coefficient (Helsel and Hirsch,
The null hypothesis (Ho) for the test is that there is no trend in the
1992; Hodgkins et al., 2003), establishing a significance threshold
time series. If the hypothesis is true and no ties are present in the
of 95% (p-value < 0.1). A 2-tailed significance test was used for p-
data series, then S is normally distributed with the following mean
value calculation. Correlation coefficients were obtained using
and variance
nearby precipitation and temperature stations for each stream-
gage. Unfortunately, the use of remotely sensed data for meteoro- EðSÞ ¼ 0
logical forcing estimation is at a very early stage in Chile, being
mostly limited to glacier and other inventory purposes (Lliboutry, nðn  1Þð2n þ 5Þ
1998) rather than for hydrological process assessment. Further- VðSÞ ¼
18
more, the need for unimpaired streamflow records conditioned
The Mann–Kendall Z is given by the following equation (Douglas
the analysis to watersheds located relatively far from human set-
et al., 2000):
tlements, thus compounding further the problem of meteorological
8
data availability as most weather measuring stations are located > pS1
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffi if S > 0
>
>
near cities or agricultural areas. Mean seasonal temperature and < VðSÞ
precipitation (same time periods as seasonal streamflow), the an- Z ¼ 0 if S ¼ 0
>
>
nual hyetograph centroid (CTp), and large-scale climatic indexes > pSþ1
: ffiffiffiffiffiffiffi if S < 0
VðSÞ
(MEI, ONI, SOI and PDO) were used as climatic predictors of CT.
The CTp was calculated in an analogous manner to the CT, replac- In a two sided test for trend, the Ho hypothesis should be rejected if
ing monthly mean streamflow with monthly total precipitation |Z| > Za, where Za represents the normal variate at the ‘‘a’’ signifi-
depth. The Multivariate Enso Index (MEI) is based on several vari- cance level.
98 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109

Juncal en Juncal (SDC1) Teno en Junta Claro (SDC2)

500 20 500 200

Monthly Streamflow (CMS)

Streamflow
400 16 400 160

Precipitation (mm)
Monthly
300 12 300 120

200 8 200 80

100 4 100 40

0 0 0 0
A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

Nuble en San Fabian (SDC3) Quillen en Galvarino (SDC4)

500 200 500 100

Monthly Streamflow (CMS)

Precipitation (mm)

400 160 400 80

Monthly

300 120 300 60

200 80 200 40

100 40 100 20

0 0 0 0
A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
MONTH MONTH

Fig. 4. Examples of the four SDC categories along with mean monthly precipitation of the station used for the correlation analysis. SDC1 has a clear lag between precipitation
and maximum streamflow volumes. SDC2 still presents a significant lag between maximum streamflows and precipitation, but winter (JJA) volumes are significant. SDC3
presents most of its volume between May and August, but the snowmelt derived volumes between September and January are still important. Finally, most of SDC4 volumes
occur during the same months as precipitation does, showing no lag or influence from snowmelt.

For the p-values of the test to be correct there must be no autocor- Y i ¼ Y 0i þ ðb  iÞ

relation in the time series, as the presence of a AR(1) process would
render the Mann–Kendall test results inaccurate (Yue et al., 2002). This procedure allows obtaining of a AR(1) free time series that can
Unfortunately, most of the time series used in hydroclimatological be properly examined for trends using the Mann–Kendall test.
studies do show significant autocorrelation, including most of those In order to gain further insights on the driving forces behind ob-
used in this study. Therefore, in order to correctly assess existing served trends we analyze, independently, the 1961–2006, the
trends, the methodology proposed by Yue et al. (2002) and subse- 1977–2006 and the 1961–1977 periods. Some authors indicate a
quently adapted by others (Kumar et al., 2009; Dinpashoh et al., shift in climate conditions throughout the Pacific Rim during the
2011) by removing lag-1 autocorrelation for all time series showing mid 1970s (Miller et al., 1994). Particularly in Chile a sustained
significant autocorrelation. This procedure, named ‘‘Trend Free Pre- increasing trend in temperature has been observed after this shift
Whitening’’ (TFPW) consists of the following steps: (Falvey and Garreaud, 2009), so the analysis of changes should take
First, the magnitude of the slope of the time series is deter- into account possible shifts in trends occurring inside the time
mined by using the Theil–Sen approach or TSA (Sen, 1968; Thiel, window used. By splitting the historical record in windows we
1950). The magnitude of the trend is given by b alleviate an undesirable effect, whereby the rank principle of the
  Mann–Kendall test could produce false results such as a nonexis-
xj  xi tent trend, when in fact two trends with different sign could coex-
b ¼ median for all i < j
j1 ist in the historical time series
The following step consists on computing the lag-1 autocorrelation
coefficient (r1). 3. Results
1
Pn1

i¼1 ðxi  xÞðxiþk  xÞ 3.1. CT characterization
r 1 ¼ n1 Pn
1
n
2
i¼1 ðxi  xÞ
As shown in Fig. 5, rainfall-dominated rivers (SDC 3 and 4) pres-
The trend estimated by the TSA approach is removed then from the ent average CT mainly during August (CT value between 4 and 5)
original Xi series, forming a detrended series X 0i , as shown by equa- due to the importance of winter flows, while snow dominated riv-
tion X: ers (SDC 1 and 2) show CT towards the spring months of October
X 0i ¼ X i  ðb  iÞ and November (CT values between 6 and 8) depending of the rel-
ative importance of the DJFM streamflow volume. The general
The lag-1 autoregressive component is then removed from the detr- overview is that the regime depends greatly on the altitude of
ended series: the watershed, in this case represented by the stream gage eleva-
tion, as presented in Fig. 6. A different response to climatic indexes
Y 0i ¼ X 0i  ðr 1  X 0i1 Þ
should be expected for stations located at different combinations
Finally, the trend is added back to the residual series Y 0i , obtaining a of latitude or altitude. In the area of study, hydrologic regimes vary
blended series: from purely snowmelt dominated in the northern portion, to
 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109 99

74°W 72°W 70°W 68°W 66°W 74°W 72°W 70°W 68°W 66°W

30°S 30°S

33°S 33°S

36°S 36°S
SDC Class
Average CT
1
8-9
2
7-8
39°S 3 39°S
6-7
4
5-6
4-5

0 100 200 Kilometers 42°S 0 100 200 Kilometers 42°S

Fig. 5. Average CT and SDC categories. The 35°S divide between snowmelt (SDC 1 and 2) and rain-dominated basins (SDC 3 and 4) is clearly visible. However, one of the
northernmost station was categorized as SDC 3, as the stations is located close to the ocean at very low elevations and rainfall episodes during winter effectively raise
streamflow levels during winter months.

9 in the relative importance of these volumes depending on the type

of watershed. Higher total volumes (VTOT) influence in an opposite
8 way when analyzing snowmelt dominated and rainfall dominated,
as in these basins higher VTOT is reflected as higher VDJFM and
VJJA volumes respectively, thus resulting in an opposite sign on
CT (months)

7
the CT. VAM and VSON volumes impact the CT according to the
CT ‘‘position’’ relative to these volumes.
6

5
3.2. Correlation to temperature

In order to study the influence of temperature on streamflow

4
3 nearby meteorological stations. All of these seasons correspond to
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Elevation (m.a.s.l.)
Fig. 6. Average CT computed against streaming gauge elevation for period 1961–
2006. Bars represent standard deviation. Relation of elevation against streamflow
timing is evident, and local deviations from the standard CT behavior are related to
the fact that measuring station elevation sometimes may not be representative of
the watershed mean elevation.
rainfall dominated in the southern sub-region. This is congruent
with a general elevation decrease of the Andes Cordillera in the
southward direction – with a sharp drop in maximum elevation
between the 35° and 39°S latitudes-, and with a weakening of
the Mediterranean characteristic of the regional precipitation re-
gime, towards wetter conditions with rainfall distributed more
evenly throughout the year. The frontier between CT occurring in
late spring (November) and late winter (August, September) is lo-
cated approximately at 34–35°S due to the mentioned decrease in
elevation of the Andes Cordillera. Moreover, we see that south of
this boundary there is a more mixed distribution in CT timing, as
watersheds of medium–high and lower elevation coexist. Histori-
cal CT time series are shown in Fig. 7, grouped according to the
meteorological stations used for correlation (Table 1).
CT correlation to annual and seasonal fractional volumes is
shown in Table 2. It is clear that the CT responds to fluctuations
timing, the CT for each year was correlated with the average winter
(JJA), spring (SON), summer (DJFM), and fall (AM) temperatures at
the same water year (April to March). These temperature averages
were calculated using monthly data, which in turn is calculated by
the meteorological service from average daily temperatures. Fig. 8
presents the results for this analysis. Negative correlations were
obtained mostly with JJA and SON when analyzing high altitude
streamflow stations. For AM, correlations between runoff and tem-
perature are weak or nonexistent for all but four stations that
showed weak but significant correlations. We think that these re-
sults are related to years were significant precipitation is observed
during warm fall seasons. During those years some mid-elevation
watersheds can show high AM volumes due to storms that produce
mostly liquid precipitation due to warmer temperatures. For DJFM
temperatures a similar scenario is obtained, with only two statisti-
cally significant correlations. In this case we think the results for
the southern watershed is attributable to a statistical anomaly, as
there is no regional coherence and DJFM temperatures should have
little impact on streamflow volumes from rainfall domained water-
sheds. However, for the northern watershed, it is possible that
DJFM temperature anomalies could be correlated to SON tempera-
ture anomalies, thus showing a significant correlation. However,
we do not discard the possibility of another statistical anomaly
due to the non-existence of correlation in similar watersheds.
The lack of correlation with DJFM temperatures for most water-
sheds is related to the fact that after December most of the
100 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109
Fig. 7. CT time series of studied rivers, separated according to the meteorological stations used for correlation (Table 1).
snowpack has melted in basins where temperature plays a signif-
icant role on snowmelt runoff generation, so temperatures that oc-
cur after this month do not affect the calculated CT value. Likewise,
AM temperatures do not play a significant role over CT because
precipitation during these months is very low for central and
northern regions north of 35°S. While for southern basins precipi-
tation volumes are significant during these months (see Figs. 1 and
4), they still are much lower than those during the JJA and SON sea-
sons, so high or low temperatures during this period do not influ-
ence timing. JJA temperature should have a negative influence on
streamflow timing for stations north of 35°S. This is, colder winters
are associated with a more delayed streamflow regime due to a
possible later melting of the seasonal snowpack at lower elevations
and/or a smaller proportion of liquid to total precipitation during
each winter storm (hence a more significant snow cover accumu-
lation). Correlations obtained when comparing both variables
agree to this hypothesis, with a negative Pearson’s r coefficient
for all stations. A few stations at higher elevations south of 35°S
also show a significant negative correlation, but in general mean
JJA temperatures affect in a less important way timing in the
southern sub-region due to a smaller importance of snowmelt to
total streamflow volumes. Correlation of spring (SON) temperature
with CT also suggests a significant effect of spring temperature
variations on streamflow timing north of 35°S, as warmer springs
tend to favor quicker snowmelt onset and thus concentrate flows
earlier in the year. According to these results, temperature changes
in time should, in principle, have a greater impact in the hydrology
of the northern, higher basins, rather than in rivers south of 35°S.
We anticipate that the marginal effect of temperature changes is
greater during winter and spring seasons, when snowpack is still
present, rather than in months when temperature is already high
and most snow has already melted from the high elevation water-
sheds. Correlation to annual temperature indexes is coherent with
the previous observations, being this variable more important to
timing in the northern regions than south of 35°S.
3.3. Correlation to precipitation
In order to analyze the effect of precipitation on the hydrologic
regime for the stations included in the study we correlate the CT
with precipitation timing (CTp), annual precipitation depth (PTOT)
and total seasonal precipitation (using the same seasons as stream-
flow volumes). Fig. 9 shows the results of these correlations. This
time we observe that seasonal precipitation distribution (calculated
using the CTp) does not have an effect on streamflow timing north
of 35°S. Annual precipitation amounts, which in principle should be
a reflection of precipitation amounts during the wet season (JJA),
are highly correlated to rivers of the northern region. From this re-
 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109 101

Table 2
Mean CT values and correlation of CT with seasonal volume to total volume ratio. Bold values represent statistically significant values to the 95% confidence level.

N° DGA Station Name Average CT Standard Deviation Corr. to VAM Corr. to VJJA Corr. to VSON Corr. to VDJFM Corr. to VTOT
04501001-5 Hurtado en San Agustin 6.19 1.09 0.98 0.97 0.56 0.98 0.73
04514001-6 Mostazal en Cuestecita 6.15 0.99 0.96 0.91 0.63 0.92 0.73
04512001-5 Tascadero en Desembocadura 6.02 1.08 0.92 0.89 0.63 0.80 0.71
04721001-1 Illapel en las Burras 6.19 1.10 0.95 0.91 0.64 0.92 0.72
04723002-1 Choapa en Cuncumén 6.66 0.76 0.97 0.93 0.25 0.89 0.73
05414001-0 Putaendo en Rdo. Los Patos 6.75 0.62 0.91 0.77 0.21 0.85 0.59
05410002-7 Aconcagua en Chacabuquito 7.34 0.46 0.90 0.77 0.01 0.85 0.66
05401003-6 Juncal en Juncal 7.69 0.73 0.94 0.91 0.38 0.93 0.64
05722001-5 Arrayán en Montosa 6.27 0.57 0.84 0.68 0.53 0.81 0.44
05722002-3 Mapocho en los Almendros 6.69 0.46 0.49 0.68 0.27 0.68 0.00
05710001-K Maipo en el Manzano 7.23 0.44 0.90 0.79 0.12 0.93 0.63
05707002-1 Colorado antes junta Maipo 7.40 0.31 0.68 0.35 0.09 0.55 0.43
05703002-K El Yeso 7.51 0.57 0.91 0.88 0.47 0.98 0.52
05702001-6 Volcán en Queltehues 8.29 0.50 0.89 0.34 0.20 0.87 0.36
06028001-0 Tinguiririca Bajo Briones 6.36 0.32 0.62 0.73 0.44 0.79 0.20
07103001-6 Claro en los Queñes 5.85 0.61 0.80 0.40 0.67 0.80 0.19
07104002-k Teno en Junta Claro 6.36 0.47 0.81 0.65 0.68 0.78 0.05
07372001-k Claro en Camarico 4.80 0.54 0.71 0.56 0.81 0.67 0.09
07116001-7 Upeo en Upeo 4.62 0.70 0.75 0.45 0.86 0.58 0.21
07355002-5 Ancoa en el Morro 5.67 0.59 0.68 0.32 0.79 0.53 0.40
07336001-3 Cauquenes en el Arrayán 4.09 0.55 0.46 0.69 0.68 0.86 0.68
07335001-8 Perquilauquen en Quella 4.26 0.66 0.68 0.27 0.74 0.61 0.45
07350001-k Longavi en la Quiriquina 5.20 0.67 0.67 0.59 0.82 0.83 0.49
07330001-0 Perquilauquen en San Manuel 4.52 0.59 0.76 0.40 0.80 0.73 0.48
08106001-0 Ñuble en San Fabián 5.44 0.67 0.80 0.66 0.84 0.86 0.34
08104001-K Sauce antes junta Ñuble 5.47 0.65 0.79 0.67 0.81 0.83 0.23
08130002-K Diguillín en San Lorenzo 4.79 0.60 0.74 0.34 0.75 0.67 0.33
08323002-9 Duqueco en Villecura 4.91 0.48 0.79 0.46 0.72 0.52 0.40
08317002-6 Lirquen en Co. El Padre 4.30 0.47 0.67 0.38 0.61 0.63 0.17
08351001-3 Malleco en Collipulli 4.57 0.52 0.75 0.24 0.66 0.69 0.37
09101001-1 Purén en Trananmán 4.90 0.37 0.55 0.66 0.76 0.81 0.56
09102001-7 Lumaco en Lumaco 4.64 0.44 0.64 0.67 0.85 0.71 0.59
09113001-7 Quillén en Galvarino 4.60 0.50 0.65 0.51 0.71 0.74 0.64
09123001-1 Cautín en Rari Ruca 5.33 0.42 0.64 0.68 0.64 0.84 0.30
09127001-3 Muco en Pte, Muco 4.66 0.48 0.73 0.42 0.71 0.64 0.44
09131001-5 Quepe en Vilcún 5.17 0.43 0.59 0.58 0.64 0.86 0.24
09404001-9 Allipén en los Laureles 5.34 0.36 0.51 0.65 0.58 0.83 0.24
09416001-4 Liucura en Liucura 5.06 0.46 0.64 0.44 0.60 0.76 0.28
09420001-6 Toltén en Villarrica 5.44 0.35 0.47 0.76 0.68 0.82 0.33
09412001-2 Trancura en Curarrehue 5.06 0.49 0.98 0.97 0.56 0.98 0.73

sult we conclude that in these high watersheds, most (if not all) pre-
cipitation falls as snow during the year despite of the season, and
remains present as a snowpack until the melt onset. The positive
correlation implies that higher precipitation amounts during the
winter originate higher amounts of streamflow on these rivers, con-
centrated later on the year. On the other hand, on the southern re-
gion, there is a strong positive relation between the CT, AM /SON
precipitation and CTp, with correlation coefficients greater than
0.6 for most stream gages. These results suggest that precipitation
timing is a decisive factor controlling streamflow timing for these
stations, as there is little or no snowpack to buffer this effect. Higher
AM precipitation, showing a negative correlation, causes the CT to
shift towards earlier months, and SON precipitation has the oppo-
site effect. Moreover, JJA precipitation does not affect strongly the
CT in the southern region. At a first glance this results could seem
unobvious due to the fact that most of precipitation falls during
the winter months, but we interpret this as a sign that JJA precipi-
tation amounts do not affect CT variability as the CT for these
watersheds occurs during JJA months. In fact, JJA to total precipita-
tion ratio for southern stations has an average value of 0.5, with a
standard deviation of 0.1, resulting in a coefficient of variation
(CV) of 0.2. On the other hand, AM, SON and DJFM ratios to total an-
nual precipitation have CVs of 0.46, 0.4 and 0.65 respectively, show-
ing higher variability than JJA volumes.
For northern stations the previous analysis –in combination
with the previous finding of no correlation between streamflow
and precipitation timing- confirms that streamflow volume
variations occurring during winter in high elevation basins in cen-
tral Chile have little relation to winter precipitation, and provides a
further insight into the relevant hydrologic processes in this re-
gion. In wetter years, a larger fraction of precipitation accumulates
in the form of snow and ice, and this increased accumulation takes
longer to melt thus delaying the occurrence of river discharge to-
wards later in the season. Moreover, higher streamflow volumes
during spring and summer shift the CT towards later months. For
southern stream gages the negative correlation in some rivers is
a reflect of the negative correlation observed between the CT and
AM precipitation: higher AM precipitation is associated with wet-
ter years, thus the observed correlation between CT and annual
precipitation is an extension of the correlation between CT and
AM precipitation.
3.4. Correlation to climatic indexes
While the analysis of direct climatic inputs (precipitation and
temperature) is important for understanding the basic mechanics
behind streamflow timing variations, these two variables are influ-
enced by climatic patterns such as ENSO or PDO. Before identifying
changes in streamflow timing caused by regional warming or dry-
ing conditions, it is important to identify to what extent global cir-
culation patterns are controlling streamflow timing anomalies in
the region. As it was mentioned in the introduction, ENSO related
anomalies are an important factor connected to annual streamflow
and snowpack variations, so it is straightforward to anticipate
some degree of control over streamflow timing. In this section, sea-
sonal streamflow volumes are correlated to climatic indexes as a
102 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109

ANNUAL AM JJA
TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE
74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W
0 200 400 Kilometers

30°S

33°S

< -0.8
36°S -0.8 - -0.6
-0.6 - -0.4
-0.4 - -0.3
39°S
-0.3 - -0.1
-0.1 - 0.1
42°S 0.1 - 0.3
0.3 - 0.4
0.4 - 0.6
0.6 - 0.8
SON DJFM
TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE 0.8 <
74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W

30°S

33°S

36°S

39°S

42°S

Fig. 8. CT correlated to seasonal temperatures. Larger circles represent statistically significant correlations to the 95% confidence level.

way to improve our understanding of variability patterns in CT. The
correlation results are presented in Fig. 10 using a correlation ma-
trix, as the number of indexes and months of each index render a
geographical presentation complicated.
For CT, Fig. 10 shows that during warm El Niño episodes (po-
sitive MEI and ONI), rivers north of 35°S (higher watersheds) pres-
ent later CT (positive correlation). This relation is coherent with
those observed for total and summer volume (VTOT and VDJFM),
with higher MEI and ONI indexes during the year implying higher
streamflow volumes due to higher precipitation, hence shifting
the CT towards summer months. For these watersheds, AM vol-
umes (VAM) show also a strong correlation to higher MEI and
ONI indexes during the same months. We interpret this as a sign
that during some warm Niño episodes, increased precipitation
during these months causes higher AM volumes than usual due
to the fact that temperatures are not cold enough for accumulat-
ing a snowpack. It is possible also that flow from the previous sea-
son could be influencing this correlation, as higher DJFM volumes
(VDJFM) are related to positive Niño phases during the latter half
of the water year and higher streamflow during these months
could be carried on towards the next water year by replenishing
of subsurface reservoirs. This property is clearly present in AM
volumes and partially in JJA volumes, with some weak
correlations appearing at early months before the onset of the
wet season.
For northern rivers, PDO influence over CT is negligible but
shows some strength in relation to seasonal and annual flow vol-
umes. Considering the warm PDO (positive values) phase change
experimented during the mid-70s, and that after this phase change
the region experienced a high number of El Niño warm events dur-
ing the 1980s, it is probable that this weak correlation is reflecting
the correlation to ENSO warm episodes after the shift. The correla-
tions are mostly present north of 35°S; according to our results
south of this divide the PDO influence is even weaker. SOI index
shows a strong correlation as ONI and MEI do, but with an opposite
sign, because SOI negative phases result in El Niño like conditions
and lower or negative SOI values are associated with higher precip-
itation during the winter season.
 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109 103

TOTAL AM JJA
PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION
74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W
0 200 400 Kilometers

30°S

33°S

< -0.8
36°S -0.8 - -0.6
-0.6 - -0.4
-0.4 - -0.3
39°S
-0.3 - -0.1
-0.1 - 0.1
42°S 0.1 - 0.3
0.3 - 0.4
0.4 - 0.6
0.6 - 0.8
SON DJFM
PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION CTP 0.8 <
74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W

30°S

33°S

36°S

39°S

42°S

Fig. 9. CT correlated to precipitation indexes. Larger symbols represent statistically significant correlations to the 95% confidence level.

On the other hand, CT at southern-lower watersheds shows a
significant correlation to the MEI index of months before winter
(MAM), with earlier timing during El Niño-like conditions. Total
and seasonal volumes also show this correlation, albeit with lower
coefficients. Total and JJA volumes are positively correlated with
higher MEI and ONI episodes during JJA months, which is when
most of the precipitation falls for the region. SOI correlation shows
similar patterns to the ones observed for MEI and ONI, but also pre-
senting an opposite sign. The correlations are coherent with posi-
tive precipitation anomalies affecting the CT, with earlier timing
during wet years.
Generally speaking, the correlation strength and sign for all type
of rivers suggest that precipitation anomalies are still the largest
source of variability in streamflow timing. El Niño episodes induce
late CT in northern rivers due to increased snowfall, therefore lar-
ger streamflow volumes during summer. La Niña conditions bring
decreased precipitation amounts, hence an earlier CT due to the re-
duced summer streamflow. For southern rivers the relationship is
less evident, as higher JJA volumes do not induce significant
changes in timing, however by observing total annual volumes
the relationship is much clearer.
The analysis of precipitation, temperature and large-scale cli-
matic controls over streamflow timing throughout the study area
allows us to identify three sub-regions with distinct characteris-
tics. First, we identify a northern sub-region between 30°S and
34°S approximately, where streamflow timing is mainly controlled
by winter and spring temperatures as well as total annual precip-
itation, being the latter the principal source of variability. This re-
gion includes watersheds with the greatest average elevations
within the study area, and snowmelt dominated hydrologic re-
gimes. In the sub region located between 34°S and 35°S tempera-
ture does play a significant role according to observed
correlations, but precipitation, both in terms of amount and timing
dominates the flow distribution throughout the year. This region
contains watersheds that are generally lower in elevation than
those located in the northern subregion but still present important
contributions of snowmelt flow during the spring and summer sea-
sons. This region could be denominated as a transition zone, where
104 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109

CT vs MEI CT vs ONI CT vs PDO CT vs SOI 1

32
34
36
38 0.8

VTOT VS MEI VTOT VS ONI VTOT VS PDO VTOT VS SOI

32 0.6

34
36
38
0.4

VDJFM VS MEI VDJFM VS ONI VDJFM VS PDO VDJFM VS SOI

32
34 0.2
36
38
Latitude S

0
VAM VS MEI VAM VS ONI VAM VS PDO VAM VS SOI

32
34
36 -0.2

38

VJJA VS MEI VJJA VS ONI VJJA VS PDO VJJA VS SOI -0.4

32
34
36
38 -0.6

VSON VS MEI VSON VS ONI VSON VS PDO VSON VS SOI

32 -0.8

34
36
38
-1
J FMA M J J A S ON D J FMA M J J A S ON D J FMA MJ J A S O ND J FMA M J J A S ON D
Month

Fig. 10. Correlation matrix for seasonal volumes and CT against climatic indexes. Colors represent statistically significant correlations to the 95% level.

influences of precipitation and temperature combine to present a
more complex picture. Finally, south of 35°S, precipitation is the
main climatic force controlling streamflow timing, as watersheds
present low elevations and the effect of temperature in the hydro-
logic regime is much less important than the effect of precipitation
amounts and distribution throughout the year.
Cross correlation was performed between precipitation and
temperature indexes, as a way to reinforce the relations established
before between these variables and streamflow regimes. Significant
negative correlations were found between mean annual tempera-
ture and total precipitation for stations north of 35°S, this is, wetter
years bring lower temperatures as the latter tend to be lower during
precipitation events and during wet years. For southern stations no
significant correlation was found; wet or dry years don’t affect tem-
perature variability in an important way for these stations.
For high altitude stations, the positive correlation between total
precipitation and CT, and the negative correlation between average
temperature and CT, is coherent with the aforementioned cross cor-
relation analysis. However, when analyzing ENSO warm events or
El Niño episodes, responsible for a large amount of streamflow var-
iability of central Andean rivers (Caviedes, 1998; Compagnucci and
Vargas, 1998; Masiokas et al., 2006), the general observation is that
these events are characterized by an increase in precipitation
amount during the winter (Rutllant and Fuenzalida, 1991;
Montecinos and Aceituno, 2003), but also by warmer temperatures.
Snowmelt-dominated rivers present higher flows during the melt
season corresponding to ENSO warm years due to an increased
snow accumulation, and a ‘‘later’’ CT despite the occurrence of
warmer temperatures. This observation brings up the question of
what is the real effect of ENSO warm events in the hydrological
regime of high Andean watersheds, as an increased precipitation
could ‘‘override’’ the increase in temperature for that year. More-
over, the effect of rising temperatures due to warming in this region
could be overridden by variability related to precipitation. On the
other hand, ENSO cold events (‘‘La Niña’’) are generally related to
below-average precipitation but colder temperature during the
winter and spring seasons, so the inverse effect in streamflow
timing would take place again: lower streamflow volumes but
probably shifted towards summer (later onset) due to lower tem-
peratures throughout the entire season. The effect of extreme
events in watershed regime type for a given year, and the implica-
tions of possible future climate scenarios on the relative importance
 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109 105

VAM VJJA VSON

74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W

30°S

33°S

36°S

39°S

Kendall's Tau
42°S
-0.4 - -0.3
-0.3 - -0.2
-0.2 - -0.1
VDJFM VTOT CT
-0.1 - 0.1
0.1 - 0.2
0.2 <
30°S

0 150 300 Kilometers

33°S

36°S

39°S

42°S

Fig. 11. Mann–Kendall test results for the CT and fractional seasonal volumes, 1961–2006 period. Larger circles represent statistical significance to the 95% confidence level.

that an extreme event has in the determination of the hydrological
regime of these basins is yet to be studied, as hydrometeorological
processes involved during the occurrence of these events may
represent non-traditional interactions due to the existence of two
apparently contradicting climate forcing on the watershed (precip-
itation vs. temperature). Thus, analysis using historical time series
could be insufficient for the comprehension of this phenomenon.
4. Trend analysis
The trend test described in the methodology was first applied to
the entire time period (1961–2006). Results are shown in Fig. 11.
Out of 40 stations analyzed, 23 show a negative CT trend (signifi-
cant to the 95% confidence level), with streamflow occurrence
shifting towards earlier in the year (this is, towards winter). The
observed change is especially important south of 35°S, with 22
out of 25 stations presenting significant negative trends. North of
this divide, only one out of 15 rivers shows a significant negative
trend. Trends in seasonal fractional and total annual volumes were
also evaluated, and results show that there has been a statistically
significant increase in the ratio of JJA to total annual streamflow for
rivers that present significant negative trends in the CT. Further-
more, DJFM trends are consistent with this result showing an
important decline in the DJFM to total annual volume ratio. This
coherence is observed in Fig. 11. No significant trends were ob-
served for fractional AM/SON volumes, or for total annual volumes.
This result confirms that the observed CT variations are induced by
a redistribution of fractional volume throughout the year.
106 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109

1961-2006 1961-1976 1977-2006

74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W 74°W 72°W 70°W

30°S

33°S

36°S
Kendall's Tau
-0.4 - -0.3
-0.3 - -0.2
39°S
-0.2 - -0.1
-0.1 - 0.1
0.1 - 0.2
42°S 0.2 <

0 200 400 Kilometers

Fig. 12. Trend tests results for the different time windows considered.

Fig. 13. CT of northern rivers (I/II group) plotted against time. Red (Blue) represents years were during May to August El Niño (La Niña) conditions prevailed. (For
interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

North of the 33°S parallel, in the relatively high altitude snow-
melt-dominated watersheds, we find little evidence of change in
seasonal discharge patterns. This result is somewhat unexpected
given those obtained for similar studies in the northern hemi-
sphere in similar climatic regions, were significant changes in
streamflow timing in snow-dominated basins have been reported
(Hodgkins et al., 2003; Stewart et al., 2005). Moreover, these sta-
tions show significant correlation between CT and temperature in-
dexes, and this makes the fact that no significant CT is observed
more surprising. The fact that no change was observed suggests
that the other sources of variability such as precipitation are con-
trolling the CT behavior in a more important way, or that trends
have not been manifested for the whole period but only for inter-
nal time windows. This problem is discussed further in this section.
Significant changes were mostly observed at rainfall-dominated
basins in Southern Chile, which, would be a symptom of rainfall re-
gime variations in time. The CT in these basins is highly correlated
to precipitation timing (CTp). This last fact reinforces the hypothe-
sis that changes in precipitation are the most probable mechanism
driving the changes observed on SDC 3 and SDC 4 watersheds. The

2800
2600
2400
2200
Total Precipitation (mm)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
1960 1965
Fig. 14. Differences in linear trend between the 1970–2000 period and the 1970–2006 period.
temperature related change isn’t clear enough due to the appar-
ently low importance of this variable in the streamflow partition
variability throughout the year.
We further studied trends by dividing the study period into two
windows covering the 1961–1976 and 1977–2006 periods. This di-
vide was chosen as previous work state these years as an important
phase change on the PDO and world climatic conditions (Miller et al.,
1994; Mantua et al., 1997; Falvey and Garreaud, 2009). Results for
this trend test are shown in Fig. 12. It is interesting that the Mann–
Kendall test shows that only one of the stations presents a significant
trend for the latter period. For the earlier period, the magnitude and
sign of the trends (measured by Kendall’s tau) are coherent with the
ones observed for the entire period. This observation is reaffirmed
when correlating the 1961–1976 and the 1961–2006 Kendalĺs tau
values, where a significant (p-value < 0.05) correlation coefficient
of 0.58 is obtained. Trends in the 1977–2006 period are also highly
correlated to the ones observed on the entire 1961–2006 period,
but the correlation coefficient is less important, with a value of
0.37 (still significant at the 95% confidence level).
For northern rivers, there are still no trends or evolution in CT,
which in itself is a puzzling result as studies show that precisely
during the 1976–1977 shift warmer conditions have been ob-
served for the Andean region (Falvey and Garreaud, 2009). On
the other hand, precipitation trends for this region (north of
35°S) are not that clear: Quintana and Aceituno (2007) obtain po-
sitive (albeit not significant) trends in rainfall for the 30–33°S sub-
region during the 1970–2000 period, with 0.1 standard units per
decade of positive increment. A positive trend in precipitation
would have the opposite effect of temperature in streamflow tim-
ing according to correlations found between the CT and total pre-
cipitation for these rivers, so when the two scenarios (warmer
temperatures and increased precipitation) are put in together,
the signal of either forcing could be lost and historical time series
analysis would not be an adequate technique if the effect of only
one of the two signals were to be quantified. Also, during the
G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109 107
1970-2006
Linear
regression
1970-2000
Linear
regression
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
1980s and 1990s the region suffered particularly strong Niño epi-
sodes (1982–1983, 1987–1988, 1993, and 1997) with higher pre-
cipitation amounts during these years, which could have
overridden the effect of higher temperatures. As it is shown in
Fig. 13, CT variations are highly correlated to ENSO variations: dur-
ing these events the precipitation related signal seems to be more
important for CT variability (see Fig. 10), with positive ENSO events
related to higher values of CT for northern rivers.
For southern regions, the abrupt change in trend significance
must be related to precipitation variability, as according to the cor-
relation analysis temperature does not play a significant role on
these watersheds. However for the southern region the influence
of El Niño events is not as clear as it is for the northern regions. When
observing the CT correlation with total and AM precipitation (Fig. 9),
the observed trends should be related to a period of increasing pre-
cipitation until de mid-70s, and then a reduction or stabilization of
precipitation for the latter period. It is worth remembering that pre-
cipitation amounts have an opposite effect in southern regions, with
early CT related to higher amounts of precipitation during winter.
According to the results for the 1970–2000 period by Quintana
and Aceituno (2007), negative trends in total precipitation are ob-
served for the region between 35°S and 40°S, being statistically sig-
nificant between 38°S and 40°S. We analyzed our precipitation data
and confirm this result for the same time period (1970–2000) in pre-
cipitation and total annual volumes. However, when adding the
2001–2006 period, trends cease to be significant, which would ex-
plain the lack of significant trends for the 1977–2006 period.
Fig. 14 shows the different trends present in the averaged precipita-
tion of station VII, VIII and IX. The change in trend that results from
adding the 2000–2006 period is evident.
5. Conclusions
This work analyzes the climatic connections and their variation
with the hydrologic regime in several rivers flowing off the
108 G. Cortés et al. / Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011) 93–109
western slopes of the extratropical Andes Cordillera and relates
those variations to changes in precipitation and temperature. The
centroid (CT) of monthly streamflow for each water year (defined
between April and March) is used as the main indicator of the type
of hydrologic regime and as a metric of streamflow timing
throughout the year. As the maximum elevation of the Andes Cor-
dillera decreases with latitude, the CT moves towards earlier
months due to a smaller spring/summer snowmelt contribution
to the total annual volume. The CT on higher watersheds generally
shows an important correlation to mean winter and spring temper-
atures; however in these watersheds precipitation amount also
plays a significant role. For lower basins temperature no longer
shows a significant correlation to CT, while precipitation timing
plays an important role due to the fact that little or no snow falls
over these watersheds. Large-scale climatic indexes also show
important correlations for all watersheds. For northern rivers,
ENSO warm events seem to be one of the most important sources
of CT variability, with warm events manifesting themselves as later
CT due to higher winter precipitation. The temperature related
ENSO influence is not clear due to the high elevation of the water-
sheds and the high amount of precipitation accumulating as a
snowpack during the winter season. For southern rivers ENSO
influence is also seen but to a lower extent: variability caused by
these events is much lower than that observed for watersheds
north of 35°S. This variability is also connected to precipitation
anomalies during these events, as higher precipitation amounts
during the winter shift the CT to earlier months. A more precise
analysis of the influence of large scale circulation patterns such
as SST and regional climatic conditions is beyond the scope of this
work, and we limit the discussion to identifying the spatial distri-
bution of this influence and its immediate effect on streamflow
timing and volumes.
From Mann–Kendall trend test results we identify a negative CT
trend for rivers with all types of regime (snowmelt dominated,
mixed and rainfall-dominated) south of 33°S; between 30°S and
33°S no trend was observed, despite strong warming trends at high
elevation sites. Observed correlations between CT and temperature
for higher basins suggest that the warming observed in the Andes
during the last decades should be affecting streamflow regimes on
high elevation watersheds, but the important relation between CT
and precipitation over these basins plus the fact that no detectable
changes were found for the northernmost (and clearly snowmelt-
dominated) watersheds despite the observed temperature increase
imply that further analysis must be carried out in order to under-
stand more clearly the hydrological mechanisms controlling annual
streamflow timing. As a first hypothesis we state that for very high
basins there could be a threshold phenomenon, in which tempera-
ture changes will begin to have a significant effect on streamflow
seasonality only after a limiting value has been reached. Further,
the high variability in this region introduced by precipitation anom-
alies during intense ENSO events during the 1980s and 1990s could
be obscuring the trends induced by warming, thus making these ef-
fects indistinguishable to statistical tests. The real effect that tem-
perature change has had in the northern semi-arid basins is yet to
be understood, as additional variability caused by increased precip-
itation during warm ENSO episodes may pose a challenge when ana-
lyzing only temperature-driven variations of the hydrological
regime. On the other hand, the role of subsurface storage has not
been sufficiently studied in high elevation/slope basins, where the
presence of aquifers and fractured rock systems could also play an
important role in modulating monthly flows.
We split the 1961–2006 period in two windows that take into
account the reported shift in climate throughout the Pacific Basin,
associated with a PDO phase change during the mid 1970s. When
analyzing the 1977–2006 period, statistically significant trends
disappear for almost all rivers. This result further reinforces the
observation that the 1976–1977 raise in temperature and subse-
quent positive trend has not been reproduced in a noticeable
way by the hydrological regimes of snowmelt dominated rivers.
For southern rivers detected change in the CT during the 1961–
2006 period is attributable to a strong short declining trend for
the CT itself observed during the 1961–1976 period, associated
with a positive trend in precipitation during the same time period.
The reduction in trend significance for the latter time period is
attributable to decreasing precipitation amounts between 1970
and 2000. However, when taking into account the 2000–2006 per-
iod these trends disappear, increasing the uncertainty about the
real impact on climate change in this particular region. As a final
observation for this work, it is worth noting that the concept of
‘‘significant trend’’ can easily be challenged in regions where high
variability is present and complex hydrologic processes control
streamflow occurrence. Works regarding trend analysis should be
careful in correctly identifying natural variability from consistent
trends. In the hydrological sciences specifically, the analysis of
the response of watersheds to multivariate processes and variables
should be assessed in a particularly careful way. Watersheds may
be good indicators of changing climatic conditions, but separating
the climate change signal from natural variability could be more
challenging in some regions than others.
Acknowledgments
Streamflow, precipitation and temperature data was provided
by DGA (Dirección General de Aguas) from Chile that is gratefully
acknowledged. Mr. Gonzalo Cortés would like to thank the Depart-
ment of Civil Engineering at Universidad de Chile, for their support
on this work and Mr. Eduardo Rubio-Álvarez (Universidad de Chile)
for his help obtaining and analyzing series of data. This work was
supported by the Chilean Council for Science and Technology
(CONICYT) under FONDECYT grant 11060444. The authors also
thank the two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful com-
ments, which helped improve this manuscript.
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