DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 120MP

A discrete random variable is a quantity which takes one of a discrete set of values depending on
chance.
Its probability distribution is simply a table showing all the possible outcomes and their respective
probabilities.
Value of X x1 x2 x3 … xk Total
Probability p1 p2 p3 ... pk 1

Empirical distributions
Some probability distributions arise from observation or experiment. These are called EMPIRICAL
distributions. For example, suppose a delivery firm has 4 drivers. The absence records over the
last 50 days are:

Drivers absent 0 1 2 3 4 Total

Frequency 22 16 8 3 1 50
Relative frequency 0.44 0.32 0.16 0.06 0.02 1.00

The relative frequency may be thought of as an estimate of the probability.

Theoretical distributions
There are other situations where a THEORETICAL probability distribution can be derived. For
example, the sum of the scores when two dice are thrown:

Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
Prob 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36 36/36

This does not mean that in 36 throws we shall obtain a score of 2 exactly once. Rather, IN THE
LONG RUN, over lots of throws, approximately one thirty-sixth will be 2's.

Properties of discrete distributions

Mode

e.g. for drivers

Median

e.g. for drivers

Mean

e.g. for drivers

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Expected value
The expected value E(X) of a discrete random variable is:
E(X) = Σxp = x1p1 + x2p2 + … + xkpk = Mean value of X = µ

This is the mean value of X that you would expect in the long run

If a and b are constants, note that

E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b

Proof:

Example
If X=Sum of scores on 2 Dice
Calculate:
a) E(X)

b) E(2X+1)

Variance
This gives a measure of how much the values are likely to vary
The variance of X is the mean of the squares of the deviation of the values from the mean:
Variance of X  = V(X) = E[ (X-μ)2 ] =
2

• So, Var(X) = Σ x2p – [E(X)] 2

Eg for drivers

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