2. A Shipment of 8 Blu-Ray players contains 2 defective ones.

Two players are selected at

random. Let the random variable be the number of defective players in the sample.
3. Five percent of a shipment of 100 computer chips is defective. Two of the chips are randomly
selected and tested. Let the random variable be the number of defective chips in the sample.
1
4. Does the function p(x) = , where x = –3, –2, 0 and 1, form a proper probability
x +1
distribution?
5. A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average 12% of the pistons are rejected
because they are either oversized or undersized. If random variable X represents the number
of pistons rejected in a lot of 10 pistons, then by using the probability distribution of
X (given below),
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P(X = x) 0.2785 0.3798 0.2330 0.0847 0.0202 0.0034 0.0004 0 0 0 0

calculate the probability that a batch of 10 pistons will contain

(a) at least 2 rejects.
(b) at most 4 rejects.
(c) more than 5 rejects.
(d) exactly 6 rejects.

4.4 MEAN, VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION

In Chapter 2, we calculated the mean, variance, and standard Objectives

deviation of raw data as well as frequency tables. In this section After completing this section you will
we will describe the procedure of calculating the mean, variance be able to compute:
and standard deviation of a discrete random variable using its A. Mean of a Random Variable.
probability distribution. B. Variance and Standard Deviation
of a Random Variable.

Previously, the mean of raw data was calculated using the arithmetic mean X =
∑ X i . However, the same
n
formula can not be used to calculate the mean number of dots that show up when a die is rolled! One
approach could be to roll the die many times, add the numbers that show up (1 through 6) and divide by the
total number of rolls (Table 4.16). Displayed below are the results of such an experiment.
Number of Rolls Experimental Mean
20 3.9500
40 3.8000
100 3.7500
500 3.5620
1000 3.5410
5000 3.4920
Table 4.16

4.3: Discrete Probability Distributions • 129

 As we can see in Table 4.16, increasing the number of rolls produces values of the experimental mean that
are successively closer to 3.5. In fact, if we define our random variable to be the number of dots on each roll,
we can show that the theoretical mean of that random variable is in fact 3.5. It appears that in order to get
this value by practice, it would require infinitely many rolls. Since this is an impossible task, the original
formula for the mean cannot be used because we cannot divide by infinity. Hence a new approach is necessary
to compute the mean of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution.

A. Mean of a Random Variable

The Mean of a random variable X with a discrete probability distribution P(X ), is the sum of the products of
each value the random variable takes x1, x2 , …, xn and their corresponding probabilities p(x1), p(x2 ),…,
p(xn ) respectively.
n
Mean = μ = ∑ ⎡⎣ xi p ( xi ) ⎤⎦
i =1

= x1 p(x1 ) + x2 p(x2 ) + ... + xn p(xn ) or

= x1 p1 + x2 p2 + ... + xn pn
The mean of a discrete probability distribution of a random variable X can be interpreted as the
Expected Value of the random variable, denoted by E(X):
⇒ E(X ) = μ = ∑ ⎡⎣ x ⋅ p ( x) ⎤⎦
The expected value of a probability distribution is the theoretical average of the random variable.

B. Variance and Standard Deviation of Random Variable

The variance of a probability distribution is calculated by using the formula;
σ2 = ∑ ( x − μ ) p ( x)
2

= ∑ ⎡⎣ x 2 p ( x) ⎤⎦ − μ 2
= ⎡⎣ x12 p ( x1 ) + x2 2 p ( x2 ) + … + xn 2 p ( xn ) ⎤⎦ − μ 2

The standard deviation of a probability distribution is:

σ = σ2 = ∑ ⎡⎣ x 2 p ( x) ⎤⎦ − μ 2
Remarks:
i) The variance and standard deviation can't be negative.
ii) The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a discrete probability distribution
must be rounded to one more decimal place than the outcomes.

Example 13: Find the mean and standard deviation of the number of dots when a die is rolled.
Solution: First we define the random variable X as number of dots obtained when rolling a die.
1
The probability function of X is p(x) = , x = 1, 2, ..., 6.
6
μ = E( X ) = ∑ [ x ⋅ p( x)]
= x1 p1 + x2 p2 + x3 p3 + x4 p4 + x5 p5 + x6 p6

Ch 4: Discrete Probability Distributions • 130

 ⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞ 21
= (1) ⎜ ⎟ + (2) ⎜ ⎟ + (3) ⎜ ⎟ + (4) ⎜ ⎟ + (5) ⎜ ⎟ + (6) ⎜ ⎟ = = 3.5
⎝6⎠ ⎝6⎠ ⎝6⎠ ⎝6⎠ ⎝6⎠ ⎝6⎠ 6

σ = ∑ ⎡⎣ x2 ⋅ p ⎤⎦ − μ 2
⎡ 2 ⎛ 1⎞ 2 ⎛ 1⎞ 2 ⎛ 1⎞ 2 ⎛ 1⎞ 2 ⎛ 1⎞ 2 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎤
⎢1 ⎜⎝ 6 ⎟⎠ + 2 ⎜⎝ 6 ⎟⎠ + 3 ⎜⎝ 6 ⎟⎠ + 4 ⎜⎝ 6 ⎟⎠ + 5 ⎜⎝ 6 ⎟⎠ + 6 ⎜⎝ 6 ⎟⎠ ⎥ − ( 3.5)
2
=
⎣ ⎦

15.167 − ( 3.5)
2
= = 1.71

Example 14: Find the mean and variance of number of girls in a family with 3 children.

Solution: Define the random variable X as: number of girls in a family with 3 children.
From the example given in the discussion of Section 4.3C (Table 4.7), recall the probability
distribution of X.
x 0 1 2 3
1 3 3 1
P(x)
8 8 8 8
Table 4.17

μ = ∑ [ x ⋅ p]
= x1 p1 + x2 p2 + x3 p3 + x4 p4

⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 3⎞ ⎛ 3⎞ ⎛1⎞
= (0) ⎜ ⎟ + (1) ⎜ ⎟ + (2) ⎜ ⎟ + (3) ⎜ ⎟ = 1.5
⎝8⎠ ⎝8⎠ ⎝8⎠ ⎝8⎠

σ2 = ∑ ⎡⎣ x 2 ⋅ p ⎤⎦ − μ 2
⎡ ⎛1⎞ ⎛ 3⎞ ⎛3⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞⎤
= ⎢02 ⎜ ⎟ + 12 ⎜ ⎟ + 22 ⎜ ⎟ + 32 ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ − (1.5 )
2

⎣ ⎝8⎠ ⎝8⎠ ⎝8⎠ ⎝ 8 ⎠⎦

= 3 – 2.25 = 0.75

Example 15: Find the expected value and standard deviation for the experiment of making a $100 bet on a
number in a game of Roulette.
Solution: Define the random variable X as: dollar value of game.
From Example 5 of Section 4.3, recall the probability distribution for a $100 bet on a number.
x – $100 $3500
37 1
P(X = x)
38 38
Table 4.18

E( X ) = ∑ [ x ⋅ p]
= x1 p1 + x2 p2

⎛ 37 ⎞ ⎛1⎞
= (– 100) ⎜ ⎟ + (3500) ⎜ ⎟ ≈ – $ 5.26
⎝ 38 ⎠ ⎝ 38 ⎠

4.4: Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation • 131

 σ = ∑ ⎡⎣ x 2 ⋅ p ⎤⎦ − μ 2
⎡ 2 ⎛ 37 ⎞ 2⎛ 1 ⎞⎤
⎢( − 100) ⎜⎝ 38 ⎟⎠ + ( 3500) ⎜⎝ 38 ⎟⎠ ⎥ − ( − 5.26)
2
=
⎣ ⎦
≈ $576.26

Example 16: Find the expected value for the probability distribution given below.
x 1 2 3 4
7 7 7 1
P(X = x)
10 30 120 120

Solution: μ = E(X) = ∑ [ x ⋅ p] (Example 9, Section 4.3).

= x1 p1 + x2 p2 + x3 p3 + x4 p4

⎛ 7⎞ ⎛ 7⎞ ⎛ 7 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ 165
= (1) ⎜⎝ ⎟⎠ + (2) ⎜⎝ ⎟⎠ + (3) ⎜⎝ ⎟⎠ + (4) ⎜⎝ ⎟⎠ =
10 30 120 120 120
= 1.375 ≈ 1.4

Example 17: An Insurance company charges Lee $1,200 a year for a $1,000,000 life insurance policy. If
the probability that the policy holder will survive one full year is 0.9993, then
(a) construct the probability distribution for this experiment and find the mean,
(b) draw the histogram for the distribution, and
(c) find the standard deviation.
Solutions: Define the random variable X : dollar value of the insurance policy from Lee's perspective.
(a) x p x·p x 2· p
–1200 0.9993 –1199.16 1438992
998800 0.0007 699.16 698321008
Sum 1 – 500 699760000
Table 4.19

μ = ∑ [ x ⋅ p] = (– 1200)(0.9993) + (998800)(0.0007) = – 500

(b) Probability Histogram

0.9993

0.0007
– $1200 $998,800
Figure 4.11

Ch 4: Discrete Probability Distributions • 132

 σ = ∑ [ x 2 ⋅ p] − μ 2 699760000 - ( - 500) ≈ 26448.3
2
(c) =

Example 18: Kristine purchased a $20 ticket from a private lottery. The rules of the game were as follows:
She would win a $1000 with a 1 in 3000 chance, $500 with a 1 in a 1000 chance, $300 with a 1
in 500 chance and $20 with a 1 in 200 chance. Otherwise she would lose the original $20
investment. Find the expected value and standard deviation of this game. Graph the distribution.
Solution: We define the random variable X = net winning amount in $
The probability distribution of X is:
x P( X = x)
1
1000 – 20 = 980 = 0.0003333…
3000
1
500 – 20 = 480 = 0.001
1000
1
300 – 20 = 280 = 0.002
500
1
20 – 20 = 0 = 0.005
200
–20 1 – (0.00033 + 0.001 + 0.002 + 0.005) = 0.99167
Table 4.20

Table for computing mean and Standard Deviation

x p x· p x2 · p
980 0.0003333 0.3267 320.1333
480 0.001 0.48 230.4
280 0.002 0.56 156.8
0 0.005 0 0
–20 0.99167 –19.8333 396.6667
Sums 1 –18.4666 1104
Expected value( μ ) –18.4666
Standard Deviation(σ ) 27.6221
Table 4.21
P
Probability Histogram
0.99167
E(X) = ∑ [ x ⋅ p] = – 18.5

σ = ∑ [ x 2 ⋅ p] − μ 2

1104 - ( -18.47 )
2
=

= 27.6
x
–20 0 280 480 980
Figure 4.12

4.4: Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation • 133

Example 19: Construct the probability Distribution of the number of tails obtained when four coins are tossed
simultaneously. Also find the mean and the standard deviation of the distribution.
Solution: Let X represent the number of tails recorded in the experiment.
X : {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}.
Sample space = ⎧⎨ HHHH HHHT HHTH HHTT HTHH HTHT HTTH HTTT ⎫⎬
⎩THHH THHT THTH THTT TTHH TTHT TTTH TTTT ⎭
Now, we can compute probabilities by counting the outputs corresponding to similar values of X.
x 0 1 2 3 4
p 0.0625 0.25 0.375 0.25 0.0625
Table 4.22

We construct the table given below to assist us with calculations of the mean and the variance.
x p x·p x2 · p
0 0.0625 0 0
1 0.25 0.25 0.25
2 0.375 0.75 1.5
3 0.25 0.75 2.25
4 0.0625 0.25 1
Sums 1 2 5
Table 4.23

E(X) = μ = ∑ [ x ⋅ p]
= x1 p1 + x2 p2 + x3 p3 + x4 p4 + x5 p5
= 0 + 0.25 + 0.75 + 0.75 + 0.25 = 2

σ2 = ∑ ⎡⎣ x 2 ⋅ p ⎤⎦ − μ 2
= (0 + 0.25 + 1.5 +2.25 + 1) – 2 2
= 5 – 4 = 1

Try it yourself:
1. In the game of Roulette there are 18 red and 18 black numbers you can bet on.
Suppose a $1 bet is placed on a red number. If the number hits, you will win $1 net.
Otherwise, you lose the $1 bet. What should you expect to win in one game? In 100
games?

2. The probabilities that a police officer will write up 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 traffic citations on a

Monday night are 0.01, 0.9, 0.04, 0.03 and 0.02, respectively. Let the random variable
be the number of tickets. Find the expected value and the variance of the random
variable X.

3. A wholesaler makes a profit of $50 on each item that is received from the
manufacturer in perfect condition. If it is received in less than perfect condition,
then the wholesaler loses $5 on each item. Let the random variable X be the total
amount of profit made on each item and 0.7 be the probability of receiving an item in
perfect condition. Find the expected value of the random variable X and the standard
deviation.

Ch 4: Discrete Probability Distributions • 134

 4. An investor has $1000 to invest. She has two options. In the first, she can invest in
an account that pays 5% annually. In the other she can buy bonds. If she buys
bonds, there is a 0.6 chance that she may lose $300. Otherwise she wins $700.
Which option should she pick?

5. A random variable has a probability function presented in the table below.

x –2 –2 0 1 2 3
P(X = x) 0.1 k 0.2 2k 0.3 k

Find the value of k and calculate the mean, variance and standard deviation.

4.5 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

There are several different types of discrete probability Objectives
distributions. Perhaps the most common is the Binomial
After completing this section you will
Distribution. Binomial Distribution was discovered in 1700 by be able to describe:
Swiss Mathematician James Bernoulli (1654-1705) and was
first published in 1713, eight years after his death. A. Bernoulli Trials (Processes).
B. Conditions for a Binomial
Before studying binomial distribution, we must discuss Bernoulli Experiment.
Trials and outline the conditions that must be satisfied in order C. Binomial Probability Distribution.
for an experiment to be considered a binomial experiment.
D. Mean and Standard Deviation of a
Binomial Experiment.
A. Bernoulli Trials

An experiment that has either exactly two outcomes or two categories of outcomes denoted as "success" or
"failure" in a series of fixed and independent trials is known as Bernoulli Trials.
If an experiment is repeated a number of times in similar conditions, then each trial (each repetition of the
experiment) is known as Bernoulli Trial satisfying the following conditions:
i) Each trial results in only two mutually disjoint outcomes, called success (the occurrence of the desired
event) and failure (otherwise).
ii) The trials are independent.
iii) The probability of success ( p) is constant for each trial.
The process resulting from such an experiment is called the Bernoulli Process.
For example, if we toss a coin n times (which is fixed and finite) then the outcome of any trial is one of the
mutually exclusive events, head (success) and tail (failure). Furthermore, all the trials are independent, since
the result of any toss of a coin does not affect the result of other tosses. Moreover, the probability of success
(heads) in any trial is 1/2 , which is constant for each trial.

B. Conditions for a Binomial Experiment

i) The experiment is performed repeatedly a finite and fixed number (say n) of times.
ii) The outcome of each trial may be classified into two mutually disjoint categories, called success
(the occurrence of the event) and failure (the non-occurrence of the event).

4.4: Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation • 135