11.

Probability Distributions - Concepts

Concept of Random Variable

On this page...

 Definitions of random, discrete and continuous variables

 Distribution function
 Probabilities as relative frequency
 Expected value
 Variance
 Standard deviation

The term "statistical experiment" is used to describe any process by

which several chance observations are obtained.

All possible outcomes of an experiment comprise a set that is called

the sample space. We are interested in some numerical description
of the outcome.

For example, when we toss a coin 3 times, and we are interested in

the number of heads that fall, then a numerical value of 0, 1, 2, 3 will
be assigned to each sample point.

The numbers 0, 1, 2, and 3 are random quantities determined by the

outcome of an experiment. They may be thought of as the values
assumed by some random variable x, which in this case represents
the number of heads when a coin is tossed 3 times.

So we could write x1 = 0, x2 = 1, x3 = 2 and x4 = 3.

Definitions
1. A random variable is a variable whose value is determined by
the outcome of a random experiment.
2. A discrete random variable is one whose set of assumed
values is countable (arises from counting).
3. A continuous random variable is one whose set of assumed
values is uncountable (arises from measurement.).
We shall use:

A capital X for the random variable and

Lower case x1, x2, x3... for the values of the random variable in an
experiment. These xi then represent an event that is a subset of the
sample space.

The probabilities of the events are given by: P(x1), P(x2), P(x3), ...

We also use the notation P(X). For example, we may need to find
some of the probabilities involved when we throw a die. We would
write for the probability of obtaining a "5" when we roll a die as:

EXAMPLE 1 - Discrete Random Variable

Two balls are drawn at random in succession without replacement

from an urn containing 4 red balls and 6 black balls.

Find the probabilities of all the possible outcomes.

Answer

Let X denote the number of red balls in the outcome.

Possible Outcomes RR RB BR BB
X 2 1 1 0

Here, x1 = 2, x2 = 1 , x3 = 1 , x4 = 0

Now, the probability of getting 2 red balls when we draw out the balls
one at a time is:

Probability of first ball being red = 4/10

Probability of second ball being red = 3/9 (because there are 3 red
balls left in the urn, out of a total of 9 balls left.) So:

Likewise, for the probability of red first is 4/10 followed by black is 6/9
(because there are 6 black balls still in the urn and 9 balls all
together). So:

Similarly for black then red:

Finally, for 2 black balls:

As a check, if we have found all the probabilities, then they should add
up to 1.

2/15 + 4/15 + 4/15 + 1/3 = 15/15 = 1

So we have found them all.

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EXAMPLE 2 - Continuous Random Variable

A jar of coffee is picked at random from a filling process in which an

automatic machine is filling coffee jars each with 1 kg of coffee. Due to
some faults in the automatic process, the weight of a jar could vary
from jar to jar in the range 0.9 kg to 1.05 kg, excluding the latter.

Let X denote the weight of a jar of coffee selected. What is the range
of X?

Answer

Possible outcomes: 0.9 ≤ X < 1.05

That's all there is to it!

Easy to understand math videos: MathTutorDVD.com

Distribution Function

Definitions:

1. A discrete probability distribution is a table (or a formula)

listing all possible values that a discrete variable can take on,
together with the associated probabilities.
2. The function f(x) is called a probability density function for the
continuous random variable X where the total area under the
curve bounded by the x-axis is equal to 1. i.e.

The area under the curve between any two ordinates x = a and x = b
is the probability that X lies between a and b.

See area under a curve in the integration section for some

background on this.
Probabilities As Relative Frequency
If an experiment is performed a sufficient number of times, then in the
long run, the relative frequency of an event is called the probability
of that event occurring.

EXAMPLE 3

Refer to the previous example. The weight of a jar of coffee selected

is a continuous random variable. The following table gives the weight
in kg of 100 jars recently filled by the machine. It lists the observed
values of the continuous random variable and their corresponding
frequencies.

Find the probabilities for each weight category.

Number
Weight X
of Jars
0.900 - 0.925 1
0.925 - 0.950 7
0.950 - 0.975 25
0.975 - 1.000 32
1.000 - 1.025 30
1.025 - 1.050 5
Total 100
Answer

Expected Value of a Random Variable

Let X represent a discrete random variable with the probability
distribution function P(X). Then the expected value of X denoted by
E(X), or μ, is defined as:

E(X) = μ = Σ (xi × P(xi))

To calculate this, we multiply each possible value of the variable by its
probability, then add the results.

Σ (xi × P(xi)) = { x1 × P(x1)} + { x2 × P(x2)} + { x3 × P(x3)} + ...

E(X) is also called the mean of the probability distribution.

EXAMPLE 4

In Example 1 above, we had an experiment where we drew 2 balls

from an urn containing 4 red and 6 black balls. What is the expected
number of red balls?

Answer

We already worked out the probabilities before:

Possible Outcome RR RB BR BB
xi 2 1 1 0

P(xi)
This means that if we performed this experiment 1000 times, we
would expect to get 800 red balls.

EXAMPLE 5

I throw a die and get $1 if it is showing 1, and get $2 if it is showing 2,

and get $3 if it is showing 3, etc. What is the amount of money I can
expect if I throw it 100 times?

Answer

For one throw, the expected value is:

So for 100 throws, I can expect to get $350.

Easy to understand math videos: MathTutorDVD.com

EXAMPLE 6

The number of persons X, in a Singapore family chosen at random

has the following probability distribution:

X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P(X) 0.34 0.44 0.11 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01

Find the average family size E(X).

Answer

So the average family size is E(X) = μ = 2.1 people.

Easy to understand math videos: MathTutorDVD.com

EXAMPLE 7

In a card game with my friend, I pay a certain amount of money each

time I lose. I win $4 if I draw a jack or a queen and I win $5 if I draw a
king or ace from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards. If I draw other
cards, I lose. What should I pay so that we come out even? (That is,
the game is "fair"?)

Answer
 X J, Q ($4) K, A ($5) lose (-$x)

P(X)

Now the expected value should be $0 for the game to be fair.

So and this gives x = 2.

So I would need to pay $2 for it to be a fair game.

Variance of a Random Variable

Let X represent a discrete random variable with probability distribution
function P(X). The variance of X denoted by V(X) or σ2 is defined as:

V(X) = σ2 = Σ[{X − E(X)}2 × P(X) ]

Since μ = E(X), (or the average value), we could also write this as:

V(X) = σ2 = Σ[{X − μ}2 × P(X) ]

Another way of calculating the variance is:

V(X) = σ2 = E(X2) − [E(X)]2

Standard Deviation of the Probability Distribution
 is called the standard deviation of the probability
distribution. The standard deviation is a number which describes the
spread of the distribution. Small standard deviation means small
spread, large standard deviation means large spread.

In the following 3 distributions, we have the same mean (μ = 4), but

the standard deviation becomes bigger, meaning the spread of scores
is greater.

Normal Curve

μ = 4, σ = 0.5

Normal Curve

μ = 4, σ = 1
 Normal Curve

μ = 4, σ = 2

The area under each curve is 1.

EXAMPLE 8

Find V(X) for the following probability distribution:

X 8 12 16 20 24

P(X)

Answer

We have to find E(X) first:

Then:

Checking this using the other formula:

V(X) = E(X 2) − [E(X)]2

For this, we need to work out the expected value of the squares of the
random variable X.

X 8 12 16 20 24
X2 64 144 256 400 576

P(X)

We found E(X) before: E(X) = 16

V(X) = E(X2) − [E(X)]2 = 276 - 162 = 20, as before.