PSMT

Non-linear Relationships

Due date: Thursday 29th October, 2020

Student name: Harmohit Kaur

Year level: 10

Teacher Name: Mr Davis

Assigned Country: Czech Republic

Student Number:

Class: PMM101B

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 BSHS Mathematics
Problem Solving and Modelling Task (PSMT)
Planning and Feedback Document

Teacher Feedback
PLANNING AND FEEDBACK DOCUMENT Evident but
may
Evident but
needs Not
require significant Evident
refinement work

1. FORMULATE Introduction

Population statistics, specifically predictions can help to determine many

socioeconomic sectors in nation that range from climate change to employment. This
task aims to firstly accurately predict the population of Czech Republic in 2018 by
regression modelling from data points already given with the dates 1960-2010 and
then to apply this model to predict the population in 2050.
Assumptions

In order to clarify the given scenario and reach a specific and accurate outcome,
assumptions need to be made about the data. In this case, it is assumed that the
population statistics collected involved every demographic for example including
minorities, the incarcerated population and homeless legal residents and/or citizens.
My second assumption is that the data was taken accurately and wasn’t biased in
order to achieve a particular agenda in regards of current political situations.
Observations

It can be observed that:

- there are 15 point of data per annum of the population for the years between 1960
and 2010
- There is a given population data point for 2018
- The population has increased from 1960- 2010
Tabulated data

Discussion of mathematical concepts and techniques

Regression analysis will be the primary method to determine an accurate model for
the population data. Linear, exponential, log and sin graphs will be utilised as
regression models in order to analyse the data at hand. Geogebra is going to be used
to graph data and therefore produce the regression data model to predict the 2018’s
population and thus 2050’s population. What is regression modelling?

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2. SOLVE Develop a model

2018 population: 10625695

Calculation of the linear model’s equation

Compare

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 Although the sin model had a R 2 value (coefficient of determination) closest to one,
meaning that the data fitted the regression line most closely, the predicted population
for the year of 2018 significantly deviated by approximately 190260 people. This
disparity was the highest out of all regression models. However, a R 2 value closer to
one does not necessarily guarantee an accurate regression model when considering
the unpredictability of population when factoring in a variety of socioeconomic and
political factors. Although the trend might be accurate in the regression model for a
certain period of time, several anomalies can be produced in a nation that could
impact valid predictions. Therefore a good R 2 value should be used in conjunction
with the difference of the predicted and actual population value as an indicator of a
good regression model. The regression model that would be most inappropriate to
predict 2018’s and 2050’s populations would be the log model. The log model didn’t
have a R 2 value close to one, nor an accurate prediction of 2018’s population in
comparison to the logistic model with a difference in population of approximately 10,
652 people. The exponential model however had a R 2 value relatively close to 1 and
most accurately predicted the population for 2018 with a difference of only 5996
people. The linear model produced an R 2 value closest to zero and the difference
between the predicted and actual population lied in neither extremes of population
difference.

Regression Log Linear Sin Exponential

Model Type
Predicted 10, 615, 043 10616213 10435435 10619699
(rounded to
nearest number)
Difference 10, 652 9482 190, 260 5996
Between
Predicted and
Actual Value for
2018 Population
R 2 Value 0.6684 0.669 0.9877 0.6721

Experiment

Predict

Using the exponential model which was earlier mentioned, the predicted population (rounded
to the nearest whole number) for the year of 2050 would be 11073504 people.
3. EVALUATE Evaluate assumptions and observations.
AND VERIFY
- the assumptions made highlighted how all demographics are counted into the population
data meaning that the data provided was accurate and valid.
Justify procedures and decisions

Evaluate the reasonableness of the solution

The predicted population for the year 2050 is invalid because as opposed to the sin model
which doesn’t have negative population at a point in time, however the exponential, linear and
log model do. This means that the model is unreasonable in terms of possibility. Now wait just
because it was inaccurate in earlier years, does that guarantee an invalid model. Sure, it
reduces accuracy but it still has the potential to be reasonable.
Discuss the strengths and limitations of the model/s.

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 The exponential model:
2. The model was negative in a point of time which reduces the accuracy
2. The R^2 value isn’t particularly good when compared to the sin model
? Can you use external sources to confirm the validity of your result in this assignment

Evaluate the results and make a judgement about the solution

Conclusion

4. COMMUNICAT The original problem has been answered

E
Shown working and relevant formulae

Round all answers to 4 decimal places when necessary

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