Metode dan Langkah

Peramalan
(2)
Planning and Production Control

Dosen : Ir. Muhammad Kholil, MT., IPU

Oleh : Yolanda Ghina Sabila (41620120014)
 Langkah 7. Analisa Kesalahan Peramalan (Metoda Linear)
(
&'&
MONTH t Y(t) = d Y'(t) = d' d - d' l d-d' l (d-d')2 ) +,, Persamaan Regresi : d’ = y’(t) = 2.319+0.374(t)
&
1 Periode = d’ = y’(t) = 2.319+0.374(1) = 2.693
20-Jan 1 114.298 2.693 111.605 111.605 12455.676 10897.545
2 Periode = d’ = y’(t) = 2.319+0.374(2) = 3.067
20-Feb 2 107.698 3.067 104.631 104.631 10947.646 10165.134

20-Mar 3 56.497 3.441 53.056 53.056 2814.939 4982.458 ∑ . ,

20-Apr 4 55.161 3.815 51.346 51.346 2636.412 4779.485 4.844,815

20-May 5 22.94 4.189 18.751 18.751 351.600 1532.694

20-Jun 6 18.15 4.563 13.587 13.587 184.607 1017.116 ∑ ! . , "
3.595,921
20-Jul 7 36.701 4.937 31.764 31.764 1008.952 2749.112
20-Aug 8 56.767 5.311 51.456 51.456 2647.720 4664.189
20-Sep 9 70.097 5.685 64.412 64.412 4148.906 5918.806 - ∑
" ,"
52,635
20-Oct 10 50.777 6.059 44.718 44.718 1999.700 3938.199
20-Nov 11 60.327 6.433 53.894 53.894 2904.563 4814.699
∑ 0'0 631,629
20-Dec 12 39.216 6.807 32.409 32.409 1050.343 2678.354 / 52,635
1 12
Σ 78 688.629 57 631.629 631.629 43151.063 58137.791
 Langkah 7. Analisa Kesalahan Peramalan (Metoda Exponential)
(
&'&
MONTH t Y(t) = d Y'(t) = d' d - d' l d-d' l (d-d')2 ) +,, Persamaan Regresi : y(t) = 0,734 , 5
&
1 Periode = d’ = y(t) = 0,73 2,718 , 1,07976
20-Jan 1 114.298 1.07976 113.2182 113.2182 12818.370 11214.868
,
2 Periode = d’ = y(t) = 0,73 2,718 1,16588
20-Feb 2 107.698 1.16589 106.5321 106.5321 11349.090 10537.884

20-Mar 3 56.497 1.25888 55.23812 55.23812 3051.250 5400.729

∑ " . !
20-Apr 4 55.161 1.35929 53.80171 53.80171 2894.624 5247.592 5182.461
20-May 5 22.94 1.46771 21.47229 21.47229 461.059 2009.848
20-Jun 6 18.15 1.58478 16.56522 16.56522 274.407 1511.882
∑ ! .
3810.918
20-Jul 7 36.701 1.71118 34.98982 34.98982 1224.288 3335.842
20-Aug 8 56.767 1.99595 54.77105 54.77105 2999.868 5284.528
20-Sep 9 70.097 2.15418 67.94282 67.94282 4616.227 6585.484 - ∑
"! .
54.129
20-Oct 10 50.777 2.326 48.451 48.451 2347.499 4623.155
20-Nov 11 60.327 2.51152 57.81548 57.81548 3342.630 5540.852
∑ "! .
20-Dec 12 39.216 20.4619 18.7541 18.7541 351.716 896.869 / 54.129

Σ 78 688.629 39.07704 649.552 649.552 45731.02759 62189.5334

 Langkah 7. Analisa Kesalahan Peramalan (Metoda Exponential
Smoothing, a = 0.71)
(
&'& Dengan asumsi nilai a = 0,71
MONTH t Y(t) = d Y'(t) = d' d - d' l d-d' l (d-d')2 ) +,,
&
Persamaan Regresi : /6 7. 5 8 1 ' 7 /5
20-Jan 1 114.298 - - - - - 1 Periode = /6 0.71 0 8 1 ' 0.71 0 0

20-Feb 2 107.698 2.42 105.278 105.278 11083.457 10291.238 2 Periode = /6 0.71 3 8 1 ' 0.71 1 2.42

20-Mar 3 56.497 2.8318 53.6652 53.6652 2879.954 5097.534

20-Apr 4 55.161 3.66122 51.49978 51.49978 2652.227 4808.157 ∑ ! ."
3948.301
20-May 5 22.94 6.03175 16.90825 16.90825 285.889 1246.246
20-Jun 6 18.15 5.29921 12.85079 12.85079 165.143 909.878
∑ .
20-Jul 7 36.701 5.08677 31.61423 31.61423 999.460 2723.249 2579.849
20-Aug 8 56.767 5.02516 51.74184 51.74184 2677.218 4716.152
20-Sep 9 70.097 5.7173 64.3797 64.3797 4144.746 5912.872
. !
20-Oct 10 50.777 5.91802 44.85898 44.85898 2012.328 3963.070 - ∑ 43.3642
20-Nov 11 60.327 5.97622 54.35078 54.35078 2954.007 4896.659
20-Dec 12 39.216 5.99311 33.22289 33.22289 1103.760 2814.567
∑ . !
/ 43.3642
Σ 78 688.629 53.96056 520.3704 520.3704 30958.18915 47379.620
 Langkah 8. Perbandingan Metode
Metode MAPE MSE MAD MFE
Linier 4844.815 3595.921 52.635 52.635

Exponential 5182.461 3810.918 54.129 54.129

Exponential 3948.301 2579.849 43.3642 43.3642

Smoothing, a = 0.71

Dari table mengenai forecast error yang mengukur nilai mean square error, mean absolute
percent error dan mean absolute deviation untuk metode Linear, Exponential, dan Exponential
Smoothing, a = 0.71 . Metode Exponential Smoothing terbukti akurat untuk menghitung
forecasting / peramalan jumlah manpower yang dibutuhkan pada periode selanjutnya. Karena
Metode Exponential Smoothing memiliki forecast eror terendah diantara metode lainnya.
Langkah 9. Menghitung Validasi dan Membuat Peta Moving Range
MONTH t Y(t) = d Y'(t) = d' d - d' ?@
Persamaan MR = 0 6 ' 06 ' 0 6 ' 1 ' 06 ' 1
20-Jan 1 114.298 0 0 0 MR1 = 0
20-Feb 2 107.698 2.42 105.278 4.420 MR2 = 0.134 ' '2.134 = 2.268
20-Mar 3 56.497 2.8318 53.6652 7.664
:;
20-Apr 4 55.161 3.66122 51.49978 Persamaan 9 ∑
12.984
:;
20-May 5 22.94 6.03175 16.90825 9 ∑ 34.727
26.127
20-Jun 6 18.15 5.29921 12.85079 28.496
:;
20-Jul 7 36.701 5.08677 31.61423 Persamaan 9 ∑
32.521
:;
20-Aug 8 56.767 5.02516 51.74184 9 ∑ 34.727
37.176
20-Sep 9 70.097 5.7173 64.3797 47.738
20-Oct 10 50.777 5.91802 44.85898 <= 82.66 > 9 <=< '2.66 > 9
55.262
20-Nov 11 60.327 5.97622 54.35078 <= 82.66 > 34.727 <=< '2.66 > 34.727
61.762
<= 892.373 <=< '92.373
20-Dec 12 39.216 5.99311 33.22289 67.924
Σ 78 688.629 53.96056 520.3704 382
Peta Moving Range Peramalan Metode Exponential
Smoothing 12 Periode
Peta Moving Range Peramalan Selama 12 Periode
150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-50

-100

-150
BKA d - d' BKB
Langkah 10. Uji Validasi Peramalan Metode Exponential Smoothing
MONTH t Y(t) = d Y'(t) = d' d - d'
Persamaan MR = 0 6 ' 06 ' 0 6 ' 1 ' 06 ' 1
20-Jan 1 114.298 0 0 0 MR1 = 0
20-Feb 2 107.698 2.42 105.278 4.420 MR2 = 0.134 ' '2.134 = 2.268
20-Mar 3 56.497 2.8318 53.6652 7.664
:;
20-Apr 4 55.161 3.66122 51.49978 Persamaan 9 ∑
12.984
:;
20-May 5 22.94 6.03175 16.90825 9 ∑ 34.7272
26.127
20-Jun 6 18.15 5.29921 12.85079 28.496
:;
20-Jul 7 36.701 5.08677 31.61423 Persamaan 9 ∑
32.521
:;
20-Aug 8 56.767 5.02516 51.74184 9 ∑ 34.7272
37.176
20-Sep 9 70.097 5.7173 64.3797 47.738
20-Oct 10 50.777 5.91802 44.85898 <= 82.66 > 9 <=< '2.66 > 9
55.262
20-Nov 11 60.327 5.97622 54.35078 <= 82.66 > 34.7272 <=< '2.66 > 34.7272
61.762
<= 892.3743 <=< '92.3743
20-Dec 12 39.216 5.99311 33.22289 67.924
Σ 78 688.629 53.96056 520.3704 382
Peta Moving Range Peramalan Metode Exponential
Smoothing 12 Periode Yang Akan Datang
Peta Moving Range Peramalan Selama 12 Periode
150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-50

-100

-150
BKA d - d' BKB
 KESIMPULAN
Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan dari data peramalan dengan
menggunakan 3 metode yaitu Metode Linier, Metode Exponential,
dan Metode Exponential Smoothing, maka dapat ditarik kesimpulan
bahwa peramalan yang memiliki Analisa kesalahan terkecil adalah
Metode Exponential Smoothing. Dari hasil grafik yang ditampilkan
terlihat bahwa pergerakan titik sangat fluktuatif.

Dapat diketahui melalui grafik bahwa ada satu data yang tidak layak
karena keluar dari pada batas yang ada. Sehingga perlu dilakukan
pemantauan atau controlling secara berkala agar didapatkan hasil
peramalan yang lebih akurat.
 REFERENSI
1. MODUL PPIC WEEK 5 (WORD) - Ir. Muhammad Kholil, MT., IPU

2. MODUL PPIC WEEK 6 (POWERPOINT) - Ir. Muhammad Kholil,

MT., IPU

3. Data Engineering Narrow Body PT.GMF Aeroasia Tbk.

4. https://www.rumusstatistik.com/2021/05/cara-menghitung-
mape-mean-absolute.html

TERIMAKASIH