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Sylwia Kechiche | February 3, 2022

5G Comes of Age: Five Predictions for

2022

2022 will see work start on defining 5G-Advanced (Release 18), while further spectrum will be assigned
for 5G use, new networks rolled out (including private 5G) as well as testing and deployment of Open
RAN, standalone (SA) 5G, mmWave, and use of the public cloud. All of this investment stems from the
fact that 5G has been deemed to be a transformative technology … but how close are we to that reality?
In the lead up to Mobile World Congress (MWC), we reflect on what operators and the wider ecosystem
will focus on at the event and beyond when it comes to 5G. If you’d like to know more about these
Get the latest trends and more, we are happy to discuss them in person at MWC or virtually.
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As 5G scales, global average speeds will fall and
disparities widen
5G continued to scale during 2021, with the Ookla® 5G Map™ recording 5G deployments in 116 countries
as of December 31, 2021, up from 99 countries on the same date a year ago. 2022 will see further
spectrum auctions in key 5G bands, and further launches, extending 5G’s geographic reach to large but
lower-ARPU markets in Latin America, Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and developing areas in Asia
Pacific. Characterized by higher population density, lower ARPU and lower levels of fiber backhaul
Share penetration, growth in new markets is likely to drive global 5G median speeds downwards. At the same
time, 5G will offer significantly faster speeds than current 4G networks provide in these regions, and in
many cases, 5G will help relieve the pressure on over-congested networks. It will also lead to lower
average prices for 5G smartphones globally as vendors target these new markets.

Over the course of 2022, we’ll witness further deployments of SA 5G and in mid- and high-frequency
spectrum, which will see some markets like the United States begin to play catch-up internationally,
while extending the lead of others. We already see huge variation in 5G performance between markets
— more so than any cellular technology to date — and even between competing in-market operators.
Our end of year wrap up piece on 5G, Growing and Slowing: The State of 5G Worldwide in 2021,
examined city-level 5G network performance and found that Seoul, South Korea was the fastest 5G
market in Q3 2021 with a median download speed of 530.83 Mbps, while Brasilia, Brazil
underperformed, recording only 58.81 Mbps. While backhaul infrastructure can be a bottleneck,
particularly in more developing markets, we see two key levers by which regulators and operators can
help drive performance improvements: spectrum availability in a combination of low, mid, and high
bands and the level of network densification. The recent launch of 5G in the C-band by Verizon Wireless
in the U.S. is a prime example, with Ookla® Speedtest Intelligence® data showing an upli in early
speeds, but still leaving it behind market leader T-Mobile.

Reducing the environmental impact of 5G is top of the

agenda
We’ve already seen considerable attention from vendors and operators as they look to optimize network
energy use and this will continue to be a key focus point for 2022 and beyond. While 5G itself is more
efficient than 4G per unit of traffic (90% according to a joint study by Nokia & Telefonica), the sheer level
of traffic it will support is projected to increase total network energy consumption by approximately
160% by 2030 according to ABI Research. With energy costs at record highs globally and the
environmental impact of related emissions rising (despite on-going moves to decarbonize energy grids),
the need to make 5G networks more energy efficient is only increasing.

Putting parts of the RAN to sleep when demand is low is one key energy saving method, where
operators can use machine learning and AI to predict traffic patterns and power down individual radios
in a MIMO deployment — or even put entire cell sites to sleep. Maintaining legacy networks puts
additional pressure on operator margins, while also perpetuating inefficiencies in terms of energy use.
Planned generational sunsetting for 2G and 3G will see further spectral assets being made available for
5G, while also transitioning legacy connections to the more efficient technology. 2021 has seen the
largest number of networks sunset so far — with 33 set to be turned off according to GSMA Intelligence
— and this trend will continue in 2022.

Spectrum ownership and deployment models fall under

the spotlight  
2022 will start to see the effectiveness of new models of 5G spectrum and network ownership weighed,
starting with the Single Wholesale Network (SWN). Governments and regulators worldwide see 5G as a
means to accelerate the digital transformation of their industries and foster economic growth. That’s
why we see them playing a much more visible role in the 5G era, looking to spur deployment by
providing incentives, easing regulatory and planning bottlenecks, and ensuring timely access to key
spectrum bands. We’re also seeing new and in some cases recycled spectrum and network ownership
models come to the fore, with innovative models of spectrum assignment like the CBRS band in the
U.S. and the allocation of spectrum to verticals (e.g., manufacturing in Germany). 2021 has already seen
a number of mobile private networks launched and this trend will continue in 2022. The Government of
Malaysia, having allocated spectrum to a special purpose vehicle (the Digital Nasional Berhad ) to
deploy a single wholesale 5G network, is now reconsidering its approach to 5G deployment, with a
decision due by the end of January. All eyes will be on the outcome of this decision, given the checkered
history of SWNs to date, but it could provide an interesting case study for other markets to consider
when launching 5G if successful.

Standalone 5G’s improvements to latency and upload

performance begin to bear fruit
Speedtest Intelligence data clearly shows that headline 5G download performance trumps upload
performance for network operators. While historically demand has been largely asymmetric, the trend
to remote working as a result of the pandemic and continued growth in social media use and video
calling increases the reliance on network uplink performance. Over time, we’re likely to see network
operators begin to place more emphasis on differentiating their performance across both download and
upload speeds. However, in the short term, we’ll start to see upload performance enhancements driven
by the implementation of carrier aggregation where it allows operators to migrate uplink and control
channels to lower-frequency bands, thereby expanding the reach and capacity of 5G networks, as well
as the introduction of 256QAM and MIMO for uplink connections.

However, speed is just one side of the 5G story. Release 16 brings about additional capabilities in terms
of latency and density. Starting in 2022, 5G technology will go beyond pockets of high-speed mobile
broadband to deliver low latency, high density, industry specific applications that make use of cloud
and edge technologies to deliver widely available and immersive 5G consumer capabilities. Even
though there are no concrete timelines for 5G network slicing commercial solutions, Google’s  recent
Android 12 announcement brought network slicing one step closer to becoming a commercial reality.
Google has already been testing networking slicing with Nokia and Ericsson, and Taiwan’s Far EasTone
has conducted proof-of-concept trials using Android 12 devices connected to multiple 5G slices utilizing
URSP.

5G networks become a platform for innovation 

MWC will showcase the ways enterprises are utilizing 5G technologies to change business models and
create new value. 5G has been designed as a platform play from its inception, bringing together cloud
and edge technologies into compelling services. Networks are increasingly becoming virtualized, as
telcos consider hosting non network-related applications and moving more assets (such as network
functions) to the public cloud in order to increase flexibility and reduce costs. Over the course of 2022,
we’re likely to see more operators follow in Dish’s footsteps, which in April 2021 contracted AWS to
provide RAN and core infrastructure for its cloud-native, open 5G network. To make this happen at scale,
partnerships between hyperscalers and the wider ecosystem is a necessity: AWS, Microso , and Google,
are already recruiting operators to their respective clouds across core as well as edge estates, as
exhibited by the large number of partnerships signed over the past year.

5G has also been designed with enterprises’ requirements in mind. As such, 5G’s improvements in terms
of lower latency, faster transmission speeds, and increased network capacity (massive IoT) open the
door to digital transformation of enterprises, and what’s more important, enable new use cases. 5G SA
offers the most benefits, allowing support for a wide range of devices and applications with more
demanding bandwidth requirements, including wireless robots and real-time video surveillance,
compared to Wi-Fi and 4G.

That’s the theory but how are things working out in practice? RootMetrics® recently measured the
performance of T-Mobile’s 5G SA vs NSA in Las Vegas. T-Mobile’s 5G SA network delivered speeds over
twice as fast as its speed on NSA 5G. In the future, 5G SA will also deliver time-sensitive networking for
high-precision devices. As operator deployments of 5G SA networks scale, so too will enterprise
adoption of advanced 5G features such as edge computing and network slicing. Operators are already
looking for ways to innovate and monetize 5G, with So bank leveraging its 5G Consortium, consisting of
vertical players, experts, and 5G partners, “to support advanced healthcare, automated driving and
other next-generation societal infrastructure”.

Ookla will be at MWC Barcelona 2022 later this month. Come visit us at our Stand 2I28 in Hall 2, to talk
with us about the future of 5G.

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This
article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of
the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to
report information with attribution to Ookla.

Global Speeds

About the Author

Sylwia Kechiche

Sylwia Kechiche, Currently Principal Industry Analyst, Enterprise at Ookla. Previously Principal Analyst,
IoT and Enterprise at GSMA Intelligence, where she was responsible for the development of IoT &
Enterprise product, including market sizing, custom consulting, survey work and report writing.

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