Supply & Demand Basics The only thing that moves price is buyers (demand) & sellers (supply). When supply & demand are in balance, price consolidates. Itis only when there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers that we see a change in price. Price moves higher from levels where demand exceeds supply. Price moves lower from levels where supply exceeds demand. Price moves from supply zone to demand zone and vise versa. We look to trade from the origin of impulse moves because that is where supply & demand are out of balance. Demand (Buy) = Bullish because buyers exceed sellers Supply (Sell) = Bearish because sellers exceed buyers AS/D zone is confirmed once price moves away from the base. There are naturally unfilled orders at these bases, so when price returns you can expect the unfilled orders to be triggered causing a reaction in price.Identifying S/D Zones Demand Down candles /consolidation at the origin of breakouts /impulse move to the upside You want to see large green candles leave from this level Supply Up candles /consolidation at the origin of breakdowns impulse moves to the downside You want to see large red candles leave from this levelFresh Orders © When choosing a zone, one of the most important factors is choosing a fresh zone. This means that it has not been tested yet © Every touch of a S/D zone consumes orders. This gives you a less probable chance of price bouncing from the zone. Once all orders have been consumed from the zone, price will break through This is why we look to trade the first time back (FTB) to S/D zonesMarking S/D Zones Demand © Mark out the highest and lowest candle close (base) before breakout with a horizontal box Supply © Mark out the highest and lowest candle close (base) before breakdown with a horizontal box | like to mark out a supply zone above ® price and ademand zone below price.S/D Structures Bullish/Buy (Demand) Bearish/Sell (Supply) DBR: Drop Base Rally - ¢ RBD: Rally Base Drop - Reversal Pattern Reversal Pattern © RBR: Rally Base Rally - * DBD: Drop Base Drop - Continuation Pattern Continuation PatternBullish/Buy (Demand) DBR: Drop Base Rally - ReversalBullish/ Buy (Demand) RBR: Rally Base Rally - ContinuationBearish/Sell (Supply) RBD: Rally Base Drop - Reversal atk =a _/ fe built ul Fl | ‘ll | ‘, if ‘| h |Bearish/Sell (Supply) DBD: Drop Base Drop - Continuation I] rl a | i iwCompression Bullish (Supply absorbed) © Price falling while spiking north © Fallingto find key demand © Spikingnorth to test supply to get down to key demand © Spiking north to consume ~demendtto clear upside path Supply Bearish (Demand absorbed) Price rising while spiking south Rising to find key supply Spiking south to test demand toget up tokey supply Spiking south to consume demand to clear downside pathOdds Enhancers & Probability Score . Odds Enhancers 1. Howdid price leave the level? The stronger the move away from the level, the more out of balance supply & demand are. (0-2) 2. Howmuch time did price spend at the level? The less time spent at the level, the more ‘out of balance supply & demand are. (0-2) 3. How far did price move away from the level before returning (Profit margin/RR)? The further price moves away, the more reward available. (0-2) 4, Did price break a key level when leaving the zone? If price breaks a key level, that adds. significance to the zone. Enough buying/selling at the zone to break a key level. (0-1) 5. __ Levels on top of level? Multiple levels on top of each other offer more protection. (0-1)Odds Enhancers & Probability ScoreBAeTs 2 Peers ee Odds Enhancers & Probability Score Odds Enhancers 1. How did price leave the level? The stronger the move away from the level, the more out of balance supply & demand are. (0-2) 2. How much time did price spend at the level? The less time spent at the level, the more out of balance supply & demand are. (0-2) 3. How far did price move away from the level before returning (Profit margin/RR)? The further price moves away, the more reward available. (0-2) 4. _ Did price break a key evel when leaving the zone? If price breaks a key evel, that adds ificance to the zone. Enough buying/selling at the zone to break a key level. (0-1)Odds Enhancers & Probability Score Probability Score «After going through the odds enhancers checklist, you will have a probability score assigned to the $/D zone © Thehigher the score the zone has, the higher probability that price will bounce from and head towards your target © Perfect Score: 8 © Good Score: 5-8 © Anything below a Sis not worth trading!Price Approach How price returns to the zone can in/decrease odds ‘© We want to see a rounded retest or compression on the retrace to the zone © V-shaped reversals decrease the odds of price bouncinggeror—— ous aol == 0 Odds Enhancers & Probability Score Odds Enhancers 1. How did price leave the level? The stronger the move away from the level, the more ‘out of balance supply & demand are. (0-2) 2. How much time did price spend at the level? The less time spent at the level, the more ‘out of balance supply & demand are. (0-2) 3. How far did price move away from the level before returning (Profit margin/RR)? The further price moves away, the more reward available. (0-2) 4. Did price break a key level when leaving the zone? If price breaks a key level, that adds significance to the zone. Enough buying/selling at the zone to break a key level. (0-1) 5.__ Levels on top of level? Multiple levels on top of each other offer more prote (0-1)get —— Cook ob Ml = Price Approach How price returns to the zone can in/decrease odds * Wewant to see a rounded retest or compression on the retrace to the zone V-shaped reversals decrease the odds of price bouncing oa. Rounded retestBetsy — Price Approach How price returns to the zone can in/decrease odds @ Wewant to see a rounded retest or compression on the retrace to the zone © V-shaped reversals decrease the odds of price bouncing v xX CompressionPrice Approach How price returns to the zone can in/decrease odds © Wewant to see a rounded retest or compression on the retrace to the zone . Vs y reversals decrease the odds of a bouncing V-ShapeBAT 2 OCU obEntry/Stop/TargetEntry Demand * Supply 1. Place limit buys at the top 1. Place limit sells at the of the zone bottom of the zone 2. Marketbuyoncepricehas 2. Market sell once price has tested the zone and closed tested the zone and closed outside of it outside of it We look to trade these zones on the first time back (TB). If price taps ina zone and closes outside of it then that is typically confirmation that price will reverse.Entry Demand 1. Place limit buys at the top of the zone 2. Market buy once price has tested the zone and closed outside of it We look to trade these zones on the ero — Supply 1. Place limit sells at the bottom of the zone Market sell once price has tested the zone and closed outside of it If price tapsina zone and closes outside of it then that is typically confirmation that price will reverse.Stop Loss Placement Here are a few different options: 1. Place your stop above the supply zone or below the demand zone 2. Behind the next S/D zone or HTF level where price could turn. This will offer lower RR but more protection & can allow you to exit early if there are signs of failure.ger — Cons ool) Stop Loss Placement Here are a few different options: 1. Place your stop above the supply zone or below the demand zone 2. Behind the next S/D zone or HTF level where price could turn. This will offer lower RR but more protection & can allow you to exit early if there are signs of failure.BAT 2 Donk ee Stop Loss Placement Here are a few different options: 1. Place your stop above the supply zone or below the demand zone Behind the next S/D zone or HTF level where price could turn. This will offer lower RR but more protection & can allow you to exit early if there are signs of failure.Targets There are multiple ways to find targets 1. If Short, where is the next demand zone that could reverse price and change the trend? If Long, where is the next supply zone that could reverse price and chang the trend? 2. HTF level 3, TPat first trouble area (FTB) 4, Measured move. This allows you to get an idea of how far price will go froma zoneget i—— 650% 26 lll = Targets There are multiple ways to find targets 1. If Short, where is the next demand zone that could reverse price and change the trend? If Long, where is the next supply zone that could reverse price and chang the trend? 2. HTF level 3. TPat first trouble area (FTB) 4, Measured move. This allows you to get an idea of how far price will go from a zonegery ooo Door a6 Ml = Targets here are multiple ways to find targets 1. If Short, where is the next demand zone that could reverse price and change the trend? If Long, where is the next supply zone that could reverse price and chang the trend? 2. HTF level 3. TPat first trouble area (FTB) 4, Measured move. This allows you to get an idea of how far price will go from azoneger — bon0 ool elas Targets There are multiple ways to find targets As If Short, where is the next demand zone that could reverse price and change the trend? If Long, where is the next supply zone that could reverse price and chang the trend? HTF level Measured move. This allows you to get an idea of how far price will go from a zoneil, il eee uate : ancora | Ty if | Haale alts \"" Ce | ™ | Tt TLEGEECi TEE ip ii Bil ge Saw —_— oraD)