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Now we shall try to understand the concept by dealing with following questions
Once we are done with OPEN HIGH concept understanding we will learn a trading system for
such cases. We will learn trading system by answering following questions
A. When should we enter the trade when we see Open High Opening?
B. How should we manage our position sizing for these trades?
C. Which strikes should we select for OH trades?
D. Till what time is this setup valid?
E. What should be the target for such trades?
F. How can we help you in Open High trade setup?
For better understanding we shall initially restrict our discussion to Bank Nifty Call Options &
Futures in a Bullish scenario and then later on extend it to other scenarios.
What exactly we are referring to Open and High is actually a specific type of Price opening
scenario of an underlying asset (Call options & Bank Nifty Futures in our case).
So whenever you see that the Open Price is the same as High Price till the time you observe
the market we have an OPEN HIGH scenario.
The above prices that you see are from the Trading terminal on 19 February at 9.30 AM.
So what do you observe
• Bank NIfty Future opened at 36402.00 and its high till 9.30 is also 36402.00
• Banknifty 36300 CE opened at 560.10 and its high till 9.30 is also 560.10
• Banknifty 36400 CE opened at 540.85 and its high till 9.30 is also 540.85
• Banknifty 36600 CE opened at 474.05 and its high till 9.30 is also 474.05
• Banknifty 37000 CE opened at 272.15 and its high till 9.30 is also 272.15
How & Why does such an opening happen in the first place?
In order to understand the “Why” in this question it is important to understand how prices are
determined at the opening and how “LTP” is subsequently determined.
We would try to understand this Price determination in an Oversimplified manner for grasping
the concept.
Now imagine you are a Big Institutional Player who is Bullish for the day and wants to invest
say 500 crores in the market. What would you do? You would invest a portion of this 100
crore right at opening. Let us say this portion is 25 crore. Rest 75 crore you would invest
Consider Banknifty 35000 CE in this case. Its LTP was 250 Rs. In Pre Open session Buyers
and sellers place their BID and ASK till 9.08 AM and at 9.06 it would look something like this to
you
265 15000
260 20000
258 25000
255 20000
10000 250
15000 249
10000 245
20000 240
10000 239
Now you are a Big player and want to invest 5 Crore in 35000 CE right at opening.
In order to do so I must place my BID at the highest ASK Price i.e 265.
So I will place my order for 80,000 qty at a price of 265 to ensure that my order gets filled. So
right at opening 80,000 qty would get filled at 265 and after that since the next bidder is at
250 price LTP would drop down immediately.
So this is how we will get a price where in High is equal to the Opening Price.
We have oversimplified the mechanism for understanding. In reality it is a bit complex as it
involves Market Orders in addition to Limit orders but the broader aspect remains the same.
For example for 35000 CE if open and high level is 265 and the current LTP is 190 then there is
high probability that premium may go once again to 265 level or beyond. This is where we will
plan a trade subject to fulfilment of conditions.
1. If the Big Player’s view coincides with broader Market view then prices will again rise to
High price and go beyond after testing some previous support.
2. If the Big Players view is against the broader market view then in order to minimise his
loss he will use remaining capital to bring the price near the HIgh levels once again.
So what we are talking about is HIGH PROBABILITY of price coming back to the High level in
any situation. We can trade in such a case.
So I guess the concept is clear for you. I will just highlight the key aspects of identifying high
probable trades
So we must get Open & High on either the Calls or Puts. The probability for Call OH increases
when we get OH on Futures as well while probability of OH on puts increases when we get
OL(Open=Low) on Futures.
However kindly note that there will be instances when we get OH on options on both Calls and
Puts but not on Futures. In such a scenario we can trade on both sides but with caution.
Here is a summary
CALL OPTIONS
2 - MILD PROBABILITY
OPEN=HIGH
PUT OPTIONS
3 OPEN=LOW OPEN=HIGH HIGH PROBABILITY
PUT OPTIONS
4 - MILD PROBABILITY
OPEN=HIGH
CALL OPTIONS
OPEN =HIGH
MILD PROBABILITY ON BOTH THE
5 - &
SIDES
PUT OPTIONS
OPEN=HIGH
Table 1: Probability of OH success on basis of Futures and Options.
As discussed in the introduction we shall learn the trade setup in a sequential manner by
answering certain questions
1. When should we enter the trade when we see Open High Opening?
2. How should we manage our position sizing for these trades?
3. Which strikes should we select for OH trades?
4. Till what time is this setup valid?
5. What should be the target for such trades?
6. How can we help you in Open High trade setup?
So let’s begin
1. When should we enter the trade when we see Open High Opening?
I would start by asking a counter question “Should you enter straightaway in the trade
when you see Open=High Opening on Call or Put side?”
I would outrightly say “NO”.
The reason behind this is “PROBABILITY”. We must enter when the Probability is
maximum. For High Probability we must look at certain other factors as well to decide
whether to go for this trade or not. These would be
We know that one big trader has come up with a big sum say 500 crores in the Market
but what will happen if another Player enters sometime later with even a larger sum say
1000 Crore?
What will happen to the probability? It would decrease substantially.
But how can we determine that this is happening?
It can be gauged by interpreting the Price variations along with Volume.
So you must look for follow up price movements and analyse them with Volumes.
So you must not enter blindly but wait for subsequent price and volume candles to play their
part.
B. Global Markets
Global markets should not go against the direction of Opening Big Players. If we get OH
on CE and world markets fall then the probability of success will diminish. Likewise you
can analyse PE trades.
So let us summarise all the steps we have discussed once again to gain a holistic view
Step 1: Future OH
Check for Open High (for CE trades) on Futures (Or Open Low for PE trades).
If we get Open High on Futures then it will increase the probability of OH on CE options
to be successful.
If we get Open Low on Futures then it will increase the probability of OH on PE options
to be successful.
Step 2: Options OH
Check for OH on Calls or Put sides of the Option chain. You can check this on your
trading terminal and consider them
CALL OPTIONS
2 - MILD PROBABILITY
OPEN=HIGH
PUT OPTIONS
3 OPEN=LOW HIGH PROBABILITY
OPEN=HIGH
PUT OPTIONS
4 - MILD PROBABILITY
OPEN=HIGH
CALL OPTIONS
OPEN =HIGH
5 - & MILD PROBABILITY ON BOTH THE SIDES
PUT OPTIONS
OPEN=HIGH
Table 1: Probability of OH success on basis of Future & Options
Step 6: Entry
Make an entry only when the Momentum picks up in your favour. Enter as soon as you
see prices rising with volumes greater than 50 K from lower levels.
You can go pyramiding to a certain extent.
Now as one more example consider Bank Nifty example of 19 Feb 2021
Step 1: Future OH
We have OH on Future thus probability of success of OH on CE if any will be high.
36300 CE @ OH 560.10
36400 CE @ OH 540.85
36600 CE @ OH 474.05
37000 CE @ OH 272.15
Step 4: Validation
We will observe the price chart and analyse Price and Volume candles. Any red candles
with volume greater than 50 K will be detrimental
So I guess that if you followed the concept step by step you would have been in profit more than
1% of your entire capital just by this trade alone.
Day Open:
In this column you will see the price at which the strike began to trade at opening.
So it is the open price of the strike.
Day High:
This will be the same as Day Open as it highlights the High price at open.
New D. High:
It stands for New Day High. If the Open High has been breached and a new high has been
formed it will get reflected in this column. It will get updated on the screen as the LTP changes.
New D. Low:
It stands for New Day Low. For all practical purposes it will show the intraday Low made by the
price till the time you observe the chart.
O=H/O=L
It will show whether the price at open made a High or a Low and would show accordingly. It
would be static and will depend only upon the opening prices.
Call LTP:
It will show you the latest LTP and will be updated regularly.
Probability:
This is the unique element that gives some values based on an AI algorithm. Higher the number
higher is the probability of success of taking a trade.
But please please please don't take this number as a shortcut to take a trade.
Our recommendations
Take into consideration OH trade only when you see Probability greater than 90 %.
So what this feature does is that it spares you from the work of continuously monitoring the
prices.
Only when you see a probability greater than 90 % just do a quick analysis of the price and
volume of candles and be ready to take this trade.
So Probability>90% is a trigger signal for you to prepare yourself for taking the trade and not
actually enter the trade.
Enter only when you see momentum and not anytime before.
There is one more feature the “Red Dot” that is also an outcome of AI algorithms. It would look
like this
I again reemphasise 90%probability and the red dot is just a trigger point and not an
entry signal. Enter only when momentum picks up.
This feature will help you identify opportunities in a very quick manner.
Just notice the number of signals and the price at which they got hit. If you use it in the Live
market you will be highly benefited.
Now having covered almost all the aspects of OH concept and strategy I would like to proceed
towards the conclusion by answering the most important question
THE END.
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