ANGE Date 01/6/2021 LECTURE NOTES ANGI IT TOOLS FOR STATISTIC LNBCA203 pAaktT—1 BCA Semester-II UNIT 3 SAMPLE SPACE, EVENTS AND PROBABILITY TOPICS 1, Definition of sample space 2. Discrete sample space 3. Events 4. Types of events S. Mutually exclusive events 6. Exhaustive event 7. Simple examples 8. Classical definition of probability 9. Theorem of probability 10. Conditional probability 11. Independence of two events Topic covered today 1. Definition of sample space 2. Discrete sample space PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirti verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPAL @ALNGH Date :01/6/2021 LECTURE NOTES ALNET Population:- It is collection of specified group of similar objects, individuals or of entities that have some common observable characters in them, _———*Whole population ise x ave_/ “+ Elementary units ‘Type of population: m 1. Finite: - Contain finite no elementary units. Elementary units wife are countable. Example: - Book in college library. 2. Infinite :- Contain infinite no elementary units Elementary cu peace Example: - Population of temperature at different point of time, 3. Real or True Existent: - Contain concrete & existing objects with the Factual observations. Example: - Employees of central government at certain date & time. 4, Hypothetical: - It is imaginary or construe hypothetically by a Statistician. Example: - Possible outcomes of rolling of a die n times. Sample: - A part of the population selected according to some rule or plane for drawing conclusion regarding population characteristic is called sample. ‘Sample size : - The number of items or objects in a sample is called the sample Size. Sample: - A part of the population selected according to some rule or plane for drawing conclusion regarding population characteristic is called sample. ‘Sample size : - The number of items or objects in a sample is called the sample Size. PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirti verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPAL @Date :01/6/2021 LECTURE NOTES ALS oro }— _* [emesie2_] > Characteristic of a good sample:- 1. Representativeness: - Sample should be representative of the population 2. Homogeneity: - No basic difference between 2 samplers has drawn from same population. 3. Adequacy: - Number of sampling units in the sample should be adequate. 4. Independence: - Sampling units composing the sample preferably should be independent. 5. Similar regulating conditions: - Regulating should possibly be similar for every sampling unit. 6. Small sample: - It sample size is not more than 30 then the given sample is knows as small sample. ‘Methods for solving small samp! ‘T-test F-test Example: - A shampoo manufacturing company was distributed a particular brands of shampoo through a large no of retail shops. Before heavy advertisement campaign, the mean sale per shampoo was 140 dozens. After the campaign a sample of 26 shampoos was taking ‘and the main sales figure was found to be 147 dozens with standard deviation 16. Can you understand the advertisement effective? Large sample: - It sample size more that 30 then the given sample is called large sample. Method for solving large sample:~ | PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirti verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPALA ANG ety cieaz LECTURE NOTES ANncr ( test Example: - A die is thrown 90 times and the number of faces shown, Rare 22 Agi gh sg Pe, ears: 18 14 13 sg 16 Test whether the die is fair, SAMPLING: ‘Sampling is defined as the to make statistical infere For example, if a drug manufacturer would like to research the adverse side effects of a drug on the population of the country, it is close to impossible to be able to conduct a research ‘study that involves everyone. In this case, the researcher decides a sample of people from cach demographic and then conducts the research on them which gives them an indicative feedback on the behavior of the drug on the population, NU METHODS Essence of sampling: 1. Sampling is done in reseaech to be able to produce accurate results 2. It is impractical and undesirable to study the whole population and that’s why sampling is done. 3. If the sample is too small or excessively large, it may lead to in correct findings. 4, Sampling techniques may be used to find representative samples to avoid bias, PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirti verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPALMENET vate ovs/200 LECTURE NOTES ANT (6) 5. The purpose of sampling in research to find representative samples to avoid bias. Types of Sampling: Sampling Methods Any market research study requires two essential types of sampling. They are: Probability Sampling: Probability sampling s a sampling method that selects members of a population by setting a few selection criteria. These selection parameters allow every member to have the equal opportunities to be a part of various samples. 2. Non-probability Sampling: Non probability sampling method is reliant on a researcher's ability to select members at random. This sampling method is not a fixed or pre-defined selection process which makes it difficult for all elements of a population to have equal ‘opportunities to be included in a sample. ‘Types of Sampling: Probability Sampling Methods Probability Sampling is a sampling technique in which sample from a larger population are chosen using a method based on the theory of probability. This sampling method considers ‘every member of the population and forms samples on the basis of a fixed process. Probability Sampling 0 For example, in a population of 1000 members, each of these members will have 1/1000 chances of being selected to be a part of a sample. It gets rid of bias in the population and gives a fair chance to all members to be included in the sample. ‘There are 4 types of probability sampling technique: 1.1 Simple Random Simple Random Sampling: One of the best probability sampling techniques that helps in saving time and resources, is the Simple Random Sampling method. It is a trustworthy ‘method of obtaining information where every single member of a population is chosen randomly, merely by chance and each individual has the exact same probability of being chosen to be a part of a sample. PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirti verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPALMRVERSTY Date 01/6/2021 tecture ores 4A a ep \ Q fell ie i ‘Simple Random Sampling a b 8 i: For example, in an organization of 500 employees, if the HR team decides on conducting team building activities, it is highly likely that they would prefer picking chits out of a bow! In this case, each of the 500 employees has an equal opportunity of being selected. 1.2 Cluster Sampling Cluster sampling is a method where the researchers divide the entire populat or clusters that represent a population. Clusters are identified and included in a sample on the basis of defining demographic parameters such as age, location, sex etc. which makes it extremely easy for a survey creator to derive effective inference from the feedback. Cluster ‘Sampling * For example, if the government of the United States wishes to evaluate the number of immigrants living in the Mainland US, they can divide it into clusters on the basis of states such as California, Texas, Florida, Massachusetts, Colorado, Hawaii etc. This way of conducting a survey will be more effective as the results will be organized into states and provides insightful immigration data. 1.3 Systematic Sampling Using systematic sampling method, members of a sample are chosen at regular intervals of a population. It requires selection of a starting point for the sample and sample size that can be repeated at regular intervals. This type of sampling method has a predefined interval and hence this sampling technique is the least time-consuming. PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirti verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPALANT Date :01/6/2021 LECTURE NOTES ANH | Ta } o.~ fa* Systematic § ¥ f ‘Sampling Be fa researcher intends to collect a systematic sample of 500 people in a tion will be numbered from 1-5000 and every opulation/ Sample Size = For example, population of 5000. Each element of the popula 10th individual will be chosen to be a part of the sample (Total p« 500/500 = 10). 1.4 Stratified Random Sampling Stratified Random sampling is a method where t groups, that don’t overlap but represent the entire ‘groups can be organized and then draw a sample from each group se fhe population can be divided into smaller population together. While sampling, these parately. igi oot ° Stratified Random Sampling For example, a researcher looking to analyze the characteristics of people belonsing 10 ifferent annual income divisions, will create strata (groups) according to annual family roome such as — Less than $20,000, $21,000 — $30,000, $31,000 to $40,000, $41,000 to $50,000 ete. and people belonging to different income groups can be observed to draw eedlusions of which income strata have which characteristics, Marketers ean analyze which fheome groups to target and which ones to eliminate in order to create a roadmap that would definitely bear fruitful results. se of the Probability Sampling Method There are multiple uses of the probability sampling method. They are: Reduce Sample Bias: Using the probability sampling method, the bias in the sample dasived from a population is negligible to non-existent. The selection of the sample largely depicts the understanding and the inference of the researcher. Probability sampling leads (0 higher quality data collection as the population is appropriately represented by the sample. important to have = Diverse Population: When the population is large and diverse, skewed towards one demographic. For adequate representation so that the data is not s! example, if Square would like to understand the people that could their point-of-sale devices, a survey conducted from a sample of people across US from different industries and socio-economic backgrounds, helps. PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirti verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPALACNET Date :01/6/2021 LECTURE NOTES 4 + Create an Accurate Sample: Probability sampling helps the researchers plan and create ‘an accurate sample. This helps to obtain well-defined data. Types of Sampling: Non-probability Sampling Methods The non-probability method is a sampling method that invol the basis of a researcher or statistician’s sample selection capa selection process. In most situations, output of a survey conduct sample leads to skewed results, which may not totally represent the d But, there are situations such as the preliminary stages of research constraints for conducting research, where non-probability samplin effective than the other type. Ives a collection of feedback on bilities and not on a fixed ted with a non-probable lesired target population. ‘or where there are cost 1g will be much more Non-Probability Sampling For example, one person could have a 10% chance of being selected and another person could have a 50% chance of being selected. ‘There are 4 types of non-probability sampling which will explain the purpose of this sampling method in a better manner: 2.1 Convenience Sampling of access to subjects such as surveying customers at a is usually termed as convenience sampling, as it’s it for a researcher to get in touch with the subjects. selecting elements of the sample and it’s purely stesetan the basis of proximity and not representativeness. This non-probability sampling thethod is used when there are time and cost limitations in collecting feedback. In situations Where there are resource limitations such as the initial stages of research, convenience sampling is used. ‘This method is dependent on the ease mall or passers-by on a busy street. Iti carried out on the basis of how easy Researchers have nearly no authority over PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirt verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPALe # Stet Sampling . a For example, startups and NGOs usually conduct convenience sampling at a mall to distribute leaflets of upcoming events or promotion of a cause they do that by standing atthe entrance of the mall and giving out pamphlets randomly 2.2 Judgmental Sampling -retion of the judge nce. Also le is formed by the th the understanding of target audier Jected solely on the basis of research ppt out of the sample. In judgemental or purposive sampling, the sampl purely considering the purpose of study along wit known as deliberate sampling, the participants are sel requirements and elements that do not suffice the purpose are Ke Judgments! ? ‘Sampling afey researchers want to understand the thought process of people who are + their master’s degree. The selection criteria will be: “Are you ‘9 and those who respond with a “No” will be For example, when jerested in studying fo interested in studying for Masters in . ‘excluded from the sample. 2.3 Snowball Snowball sampling is a sampling method that is used in studi to understand subjects which are difficult to trace. ies which need to be carried out pREPARED BY : Dr Kirt verma Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics LNCT BHOPALFor example, it will be extremely challenging to survey shelterless people or illegal immigrants. In such cases, using the snowball theory, researchers can track a few of that particular category to interview and results will be derived on that basis. This sampling method is implemented in situations where the topic is highly sensitive and not openly t HIV Aids. Not many discussed such as conducting surveys to gather information abou victims will readily respond to the questions but researchers can contact people they might know or volunteers associated with the cause to get in touch with the victims and collect information. 2.4 Quota Sampling In Quota sampling, selection of members in this sampling te standard. In this case, as a sample is formed on basis of specific attributes, pre-set Eample will have the same attributes that are found in the total population. It is an extremely quick method of collecting samples. chnique happens on basis of a the created JQuestionPro, For example, An interviewer may tell to sample 50 femals between the age of 45 and 6 Use of the Non-Probability Sampling Method ‘There are multiple uses of the non-probability sampling method. They are: Create a hypothesis: The non-probability sampling method is used to create a hypothesis when limited to no prior information is available. This method helps with immediate return of data and helps to build a base for any further research. Exploratory research: This sampling technique is widely used when researchers aim at conducting qualitative research, pilot studies or exploratory research. Budget and time constraints: The non-probability method when there are budget and ime constraints and some preliminary data has to be collected. Since the survey design is PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirti verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPALALNGI Date :01/6/2021 it not rigid, the survey or questionnaire Difference between Probability Sampling and Non-Probability Sampling Methods: Non Probablity inlet toe pling Definition Non- probability sampling is a which sample froma | sampling larger population are | technique in which chosen using a method | the researcher based on the theory of | selects samples probability based on the subjective judgment of the researcher rather than random selection. Alternatively | Random sampling Non-random Known as __| method. sampling method Population | The population is The population is selection selected randomly. selected arbitrarily. | Market The research is The research is Research conclusive in nature. exploratory in nature. Sample Since there is method to _| Since the sampling deciding the sample, the | method is population demographics | arbitrary, the is conclusively population represented. demographi representation is, almost always skewed, Time Taken | Take alongertimeto | This type of conduct since the sampling method research design defines _| is quick since the selection parameters _| neither the sample before the market or selection criteria research study begins. of the sample are undefined, Results This type of sampling is | This type of entirely unbiased and | sampling is hence the results are entirely biased and unbiased too and hence the results conclusive. are biased too rendering the research speculative. LECTURE NOTES ALNGI is easier to pick respondents at ran m and have they taken PREPARED BY : Dr. Kirti verma Associate Professor , Department of Mathematics , LNCT BHOPAL