PETROLEUM EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Volume 48, Issue 2, April 2021

Online English edition of the Chinese language journal

Cite this article as: PETROL. EXPLOR. DEVELOP., 2021, 48(2): 480–491. RESEARCH PAPER

The role of new energy in carbon neutral

ZOU Caineng, XIONG Bo*, XUE Huaqing, ZHENG Dewen, GE Zhixin, WANG Ying, JIANG Luyang,
PAN Songqi, WU Songtao
PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, Beijing 100083, China

Abstract: Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle, and has the dual properties of realizing the
conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect. The fixed or available carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere is defined as “gray carbon”, while the carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed or used and remains in the atmosphere is
called “black carbon”. Carbon neutral is the consensus of human development, but its implementation still faces many chal-
lenges in politics, resources, technology, market, and energy structure, etc. It is proposed that carbon replacement, carbon
emission reduction, carbon sequestration, and carbon cycle are the four main approaches to achieve carbon neutral, among
which carbon replacement is the backbone. New energy has become the leading role of the third energy conversion and will
dominate carbon neutral in the future. Nowadays, solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, nuclear energy and hydrogen energy
are the main forces of new energy, helping the power sector to achieve low carbon emissions. “Green hydrogen” is the reserve
force of new energy, helping further reduce carbon emissions in industrial and transportation fields. Artificial carbon conver-
sion technology is a bridge connecting new energy and fossil energy, effectively reducing the carbon emissions of fossil energy.
It is predicted that the peak value of China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 110108 t in 2030. The study predicts that
China's carbon emissions will drop to 22108 t, 33108 t and 44108 t, respectively, in 2060 according to three scenarios of high,
medium, and low levels. To realize carbon neutral in China, seven implementation suggestions have been put forward to build a
new “three small and one large” energy structure in China and promote the realization of China's energy independence strategy.

Key words: new energy; peak carbon dioxide emissions; carbon neutral; gray carbon; black carbon; carbon replacement;
carbon emissions reduction; carbon sequestration; carbon cycle

Introduction carbon (wood + coal) and medium-low carbon (petroleum

Energy is a resource in nature that supports human
survival and social progress. Ever since humans utilized
fire for the first time, energy, water, and food have be-
come the three elements that humans cannot live without.
Two driving forces, technological progress and social
civilization promote energy development. The global en-
ergy structure has gone through two transformations: the
first transformation realizes the energy revolution from
wood to coal and the second transformation completes
the shift from coal to petroleum and natural gas. Nowa-
days, mankind is experiencing the third significant
transformation that converts from conventional fossil
fuels to new energy. Based on the energy development
law, the energy resource, in terms of its form, has shifted
from the solid phase (wood + coal) and liquid phase (pe-
troleum) to the gas phase (natural gas). In terms of the
carbon number, energy resource has shifted from high-
+ natural gas) to carbon-free (new energy). The future
development will go along with the three major trends –
resource type carbon reduction, production technology
intensification, and utilization method diversification. At
present, the global energy is undergoing a low-carbon
revolution in fossil energy, a large-scale revolution in new
energy, and an intelligent revolution in energy manage-
ment. The three energy revolutions are proceeding si-
multaneously to accelerate the formation of "new coal",
"new oil and gas", and "new power grid."
Human beings live on the same earth and under the
same sky but breathe “air” with different carbon dioxide
contents. As mankind stepped into industrialization,
carbon dioxide emissions have continued to increase,
resulting in environmental hazards including global
warming, glaciers melting, and sea level rising. The en-
vironment on which mankind depends for survival is

Received date: 28 Jan. 2021; Revised date: 10 Mar. 2021.

* Corresponding author. E-mail: xiongb69@petrochina.com.cn
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1876-3804(21)60039-3
Copyright © 2021, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina. Publishing Services provided by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi
Communications Co., Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491
facing unprecedented threats and challenges. According
to statistics, since the year of 1850, the concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280
106 to 450106, the global temperature has increased
about 0.9 C to 1.2 C and the sea level has risen by 20
cm[13]. Especially in the past 30 years, the global warming
and sea level rising have accelerated, the rate of tem-
perature rise has increased 0.2 C every 10 years and that
of sea level rise has reached 0.32 cm/a[46]. By the end of
this century, if the global temperature rise reaches 2 C,
the sea level would rise 36 to 87 cm. By that moment, 99%
of coral reefs will vanish, about 13% of the ecological
system on land will be destroyed, and many plants and
animals will be on the edge of extinction[7]. Cutting down
the emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide
and mitigating global warming have become the goal
shared by all mankind. In October 2018, the Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Na-
tions (IPCC) proposed the goal of “carbon-neutral” that
will limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C by the end
of the century.
The carbon dioxide emissions caused by human activi-
ties mainly come from fossil fuel consumption. Develop-
ing new energy and realizing energy transformation by
reducing fossil fuel consumption and constructing a
green, low-carbon energy system is one of the important
measures to lower carbon dioxide emissions and imple-
ment global carbon neutral. This article summarizes the
main experience and approaches of major countries to-
wards carbon neutral, analyzes the global distribution of
carbon dioxide emissions, and proposes the challenges
and countermeasures facing global carbon neutrality.
New energy has become the dominant role in the third
energy transformation and will take the lead in the im-
plementation of carbon neutral. In response to the chal-
lenges and opportunities facing China's carbon neutral,
this paper proposes a roadmap and implementation path
for China to achieve carbon neutral, and provides a ref-
erence for the smooth realization of the carbon neutral
goal by 2060.
1. Overview of global carbon-neutral
1.1. Types of “carbon”
Carbon is one of the major elements in living matter
and a significant component of organic matter. It exists in
the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystem, marine ecosystem,
and lithosphere on the earth in the forms of carbon di-
oxide, organic and inorganic matter. Carbon circulates
within the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystem, marine
ecosystem, and lithosphere on the earth through carbon
fixation and carbon release[8]. Carbon fixation refers to
the carbon dioxide absorption via photosynthesis by
plants, the carbon dioxide dissolution into the ocean
from the atmosphere, the carbon dioxide absorption by
 481 
saline soil in arid regions, the formation of carbonic rock,
and the artificial technology that converts carbon dioxide
to chemicals or fuels, etc. Carbon release mainly comes
from the respiratory actions of plants and animals, con-
sumption of fossil fuels, and the decomposition of car-
bonic rock in the lithosphere. This article defines the
carbon dioxide that can be fixed and available as the
“gray carbon”; carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed, used,
and remains in the atmosphere as “black carbon”. Since
humans stepped into industrialization, the consumption
of fossil fuels has drastically increased, releasing carbon
within fossil fuels in the lithosphere into the atmosphere.
As a result, the carbon dioxide concentration in the at-
mosphere continuously increases and the carbon circula-
tion cycle balance is destroyed, causing “black carbon”
content in the atmosphere to constantly increase. The
purpose of carbon neutral is to reduce the concentration
of “black carbon” in the atmosphere, gradually restore
carbon cycle balance on the earth, protect the ecosystem
that humans depend on, and build a habitable earth.
1.2. The connotation and significance of carbon
neutral
The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C pub-
lished by IPCC pointed out that carbon-neutral means
that carbon dioxide emissions of an organization within
one year are balanced through carbon dioxide elimina-
tion technology, which is also known as net zero CO2
emissions[7]. The carbon neutral target is to reduce the
global carbon dioxide emissions by about 45% in 2030,
compared to 2010, and to reach net zero CO2 emissions
and realize net zero carbon dioxide emissions in 2050.
The primary task of carbon neutral is to control global
warming within 1.5 C by the end of this century. Carbon
neutral can not only mitigate climate changes but also is
a radical measure for humans to protect the ecological
environment. It also helps to protect the biological diver-
sity and ecosystem, and prevent more species from ex-
tinction. Carbon neutral has accelerated the low-carbon
and green transformation in the energy resource system
and provided an emerging economic growth point for the
whole world. According to the Energy Transformation
2050 published by International Renewable Energy
Agency, carbon neutral can bring an extra 2.4% GDP
growth for global economics and additional 7 million
employment positions in the energy industry, etc.[9].
1.3. Progress and practices of carbon neutral
As of January 2021, according to the statistics of the
United Kingdom’s Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit[10],
there have been 28 countries in the world realizing or
making a commitment to carbon neutral targets (Table 1).
Among them, Suriname and Bhutan have achieved car-
bon neutral; six countries including Sweden, the United
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491
Table 1. Timeline of each country and region’s commitment to be carbon neutral (modified from the reference [10]).
Carbon neutral time Proposed legislation
2035
2040
2045
The European Union, Canada,
2050 South Korea, Spain, Denmark, New Zealand,
Chile, Fiji
2060
Kingdom, and France have committed to being carbon
neutral in law; six countries and regions including the
European Union, Canada, and South Korea are formu-
lating relevant laws; fourteen countries including China,
Australia, Japan, and Germany commit to being carbon
neutral. The year of 2050 is the major time node for the
world to achieve carbon neutral. Except the 2 countries
that have already been carbon neutral, Finland has com-
mitted to being carbon neutral at the earliest time in the
year of 2035. Other 99 countries are discussing carbon
neutral targets, among which Uruguay plans to set the
target in 2030 while other countries plan to set it in 2050.
The two countries that have achieved carbon neutral-
ity have the characteristics of small land area and ex-
tremely high forest coverage. Among them, the forest
coverage rate of Suriname is 90% and that of Bhutan is
72%. In the carbon neutral process, the European Union
has been the most active participant who is willing to
build the first carbon neutral continent. The European
Green Deal published by the European Commission in
December 2019 mentions that the greenhouse gas emis-
sions will be reduced by 50% to 55% in 2030 compared
to 1990 and achieve the goal of carbon neutral by 2050.
The Green Growth Strategies proposed by the Japanese
government in December 2020 is regarded as the pro-
gress chart for Japan to be carbon neutral in 2050. Re-
garding the countries that have already committed to
being carbon neutral, except the European Union and
Japan that have already made the specific route map to
be carbon neutral, the carbon neutral paths of other
countries are still in the making. This article analyzes
and concludes the approaches done by major countries
and region as follows.
(1) Gradually withdraw from coal power generation
plans. Except Germany, the European Union countries
that have pledged to be carbon neutral have a relatively
small amount of coal resources and small territorial
area. These countries have all terminated the coal power
generation. Germany announces that it will withdraw
from coal power generation by 2040. The countries that
have relatively abundant coal resources and have a rel-
atively high ratio of electricity consumption taken up by
coal (such as Australia) have not yet confirmed the plan
to quit coal power generation.
(2) Accelerate the application and generalization of
the new energy industry such as solar, wind, hydrogen
In law In policy document
Finland
Austria, Iceland
Sweden
The UK, France, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, Norway,
Ireland, South Africa, Portugal,
Hungary Costa Rica, Slovenia, Marshall Islands
China
energy. Photovoltaic power generation will become the
main electric power source of the European Union and
Japan and offshore wind power will usher in explosive
growth. It is estimated that by 2050, the offshore wind
power in the European Union and Japan will have more
than a 25-fold increase. As for hydrogen energy, the Eu-
ropean Union focuses on the production and preparation
of green hydrogen; Japan fully develops the industry
chain for hydrogen energy; South Korea has legislated
on hydrogen energy, extending its application to trans-
portation, metallurgy, power generation, and other fields.
(3) Develop carbon sequestration and carbon conver-
sion technologies. Germany will reinitiate the carbon
dioxide capture and sequestration project and mean-
while utilize its ample natural gas pipeline network
facilities to rapidly develop electricity-to-gas technology,
and convert carbon dioxide into methane for pipeline
network transportation. Japan is developing carbon
dioxide capture and resource recovery technologies. By
2030, the price of carbon dioxide recovery fuel will be
equivalent to that of conventional jet fuels, and by 2050,
the price of carbon-dioxide-made plastic products will
be equivalent to that of existing plastic products.
(4) Introduce a pricing mechanism for carbon and
increase the cost of carbon emissions. The European
Union started to implement Emissions Trading Scheme
(EU ETS), which is the first carbon emissions trading
system participated by several countries in the world.
This trading system uses the Cap-and-Trade Rules,
trading carbon emissions via administrative license
transactions, based on limiting total greenhouse gas
emissions. By prescribing limits and setting up trading
plans, this trading system also sets limits to each mem-
ber country to distribute the emissions reduction tar-
gets to enterprises, and define the emissions reduction
upper limits to enforce the implementation.
2. Major challenges and strategies for carbon
neutral
2.1. Current situation of global carbon emissions
According to the statistics by the International Energy
Agency, the global energy-related carbon dioxide emis-
sions in 2019 are the same as in 2018 (330108 t). The top
5 carbon emitter countries are China, the United States,
India, Russia, and Japan, whose carbon emissions are
 482 
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491
Fig. 1. Carbon dioxide emissions statistics based on major global energy-related continents (a) and countries (b) from
2000 to 2019 (modified from the references [1112]).
98108, 48108, 23108, 15108, and 11108 t respec-
tively[1112]. Carbon emissions in Asia mainly come from
China, India, and Japan. Carbon emissions in America
come from the United States, Canada, and Brazil; those in
Europe come from Russia, Germany, and the United
Kingdom. Carbon emissions in Africa come from South
Africa, Egypt, and Algeria. Carbon emissions in Oceania
come from Australia.
Fossil fuel consumption is the major factor responsible
for increased carbon dioxide emissions. Coal consump-
tion has always been the largest source of carbon dioxide
emissions since 2003 (Table 2). In 2019, the consumption
of coal, petroleum, natural gas, and other consumption
took up 44%, 34%, 21%, and 1% of the total count of car-
bon dioxide emissions, respectively. The electric power
industry is the largest carbon emission industry that ac-
counts for 38% of the total emissions, followed by trans-
portation, industry, construction, and other fields, account-
ing for 24%, 23%, and 9% of the total carbon emissions[12].
2.2. Major issues facing carbon neutral
It has been the global consensus that carbon neutral
can be a solution for global climate changes, but its imple-
Fig. 2. Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
statistics from 2000 to 2019 (modified from references
[1112]).
 483 
mentation still faces challenges from all aspects including
politics, energy resources, technology, market, and energy
structure.
2.2.1. Politics
Achieving carbon neutral is a global target that needs
the cooperation of all countries in the world. The per-
manent member of the UN Security Council should take
the lead on the carbon neutral target and however, the
United States and Russia have not yet pledged to be car-
bon neutral. Among the top 5 carbon emission countries
in the world, India has not yet committed the time to be
carbon neutral. Angola, Iran, Iraq, South Sudan, Turkey,
Yemen, and other countries initially signed the Paris
Climate Agreement but have not yet assigned formal leg-
islative approval. Another 99 countries discussing carbon
neutral targets, which have yet to be adopted[9].
2.2.2. Energy resources
Developing new energy to replace fossil fuels is a pri-
mary measure to achieve carbon neutral. The global dis-
tribution of new energy including solar and wind energy
varies greatly with respect to time and space, which
brings challenges to the large-scale development of new
energy. The global solar energy resources are mainly
concentrated near the equator and between the Tropic of
Cancer and Capricorn, where the Saharan region of
northern Africa is the most abundant. The east and south
sides of the Africa continent, the northwest region in
China, and Australia are also the regions with rich solar
energy. Wind energy resources are mainly distributed in
East Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the regions
from 30S to 30N in America, together with the north
and the east region in China, Mongolia, northeast region
in Australia, south of the Sahara Desert in Africa, and
other regions. The global terrestrial solar energy and
wind energy vary significantly across different regions
and seasons[13].
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491
2.2.3. Technology
The maturity of new energy technologies decides the
progress of the carbon neutral process. The overall price
of power generated by solar, wind, and other new energy
is still higher than that of power generated by coal. Also,
the stability of peak-valley is far from satisfactory and the
peak regulation technology still needs further innovation.
Fields such as heavy industry and long-distance trans-
portation can hardly achieve electrification. Even though
hydrogen fuel cell is the optimum choice, some key
technologies are still in the demonstration and prototype
stage and have not yet reached generalization and
large-scale industrial application. Compared to hydrogen
production from traditional fossil energy (also known as
“gray hydrogen”), Hydrogen production from renewable
energy sources (also known as “green hydrogen”) has a
higher cost and corresponding carbon dioxide capture
and sequestration technology are still in the demonstra-
tion stage. Although low-carbon technology transfer can
significantly help reduce carbon emission and control the
warming effect, the commitment, made by developed
countries, about funding and low-carbon technology as-
sistance to developing countries has not yet been ful-
filled.
2.2.4. Market
In the carbon neutral process, the generalization and
application of new energy depend on cost advantages and
application convenience. At present, the cost of new en-
ergy has dropped by each year but is still less competitive
with fossil energy. Particularly, in 2020 when the global
crude oil price collapsed, the cost advantages of fossil
fuels caused an adverse effect on new energy transforma-
tion[14]. The incomplete corollary equipment for new en-
ergy also poses an inconvenience. The problems such as
the charging piles not being popularized and the insuffi-
cient amount of hydrogen refueling stations have pushed
up the cost of using new energy vehicles.
2.2.5. Energy structure
Fossil fuels still account for a major part of global en-
ergy consumption with new energy having a relatively
small proportion. The global energy consumption in 2019
is 144108 t of oil equivalent, where coal accounts for 27%,
petroleum 33%, natural gas 24%, and new energy 16%[15].
In the carbon neutral process, the consumption propor-
tion of coal, petroleum, and other high carbon content
fossil fuels needs to be cut down significantly while that
of new energy needs to be increased. So far, the con-
sumption proportion of fossil fuels remains high, bring-
ing challenges for energy transformation.
2.3. Strategies to achieve carbon neutral
The strategies to reduce carbon emissions and achieve
 484 
carbon neutral can be distinguished into four major ap-
proaches, carbon replacement, carbon reduction, carbon
sequestration, and carbon cycle.
Carbon replacement refers to replacement by electricity,
heat, and hydrogen. Replacement by electricity is the
utilization of hydroelectricity, photoelectricity, wind elec-
tricity, and other “green electricity” to replace thermal
power. Replacement by heat is the utilization of photo-
thermal resources, geothermal resources to replace fossil
fuel heating. Replacement by hydrogen is using “green
hydrogen” to replace “gray hydrogen”.
Carbon reduction mainly includes energy saving and
efficiency improvement. In the construction industry, the
approaches mainly include improvement of electrical
appliance and facility efficiency, installation of solar
photovoltaics outside buildings, reduction of the embod-
ied carbon emissions of cement and steel, and so on. In
the transportation industry, the approaches mainly in-
volve the utilization of more efficient power systems and
lighter materials. The emissions of the “black carbon” can
thus be reduced fundamentally.
Carbon sequestration refers to the collection of carbon
dioxide generated by large-scale thermal power genera-
tion, steelmaking plants, chemical plants, etc., and then
transport to a suitable place, using technical means to
isolate and seal the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
for a long time. Geological sequestration is the main form
of carbon sequestration, the sequestration places are
usually oil and gas reservoirs, deep underground saltwa-
ter layers, and abandoned coal mines. In the future, after
oilfield and gas fields being depleted, the existing surface
and the underground facility can be applied to seques-
trate carbon dioxide, which may become one of the main
approaches. The “black carbon” content in the atmos-
phere can be reduced by technical measures.
The carbon cycle includes artificial carbon conversion
and forest carbon sink. Artificial carbon conversion
means using chemical or biological measures to convert
carbon dioxide into useful chemical products or fuels
including methanol synthesis from carbon dioxide, the
electrocatalytic reduction from carbon dioxide to prepare
CO or light hydrocarbon products (C1—C3), etc. Forest
carbon sink refers to the absorption of atmospheric car-
bon dioxide by plants through photosynthesis and the
fixation of carbon dioxide in vegetation and soil to reduce
the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The
recycling function of “gray carbon” comes into play.
Aiming at the four main carbon neutral strategies of
carbon substitution, carbon emission reduction, carbon
sequestration, and carbon cycle, based on the maturity of
technology or the price competitiveness of conventional
fossil energy, the trend of carbon dioxide emission reduc-
tion under the global carbon neutral target from 2020 to
2050 is predicted (Fig. 3). From 2020 to 2030, the carbon
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491
Fig. 3. The contribution to the global carbon neutral of 4
approaches from 2020 to 2050.
dioxide emission reduction rate is relatively low. The
main reasons for this are: the price advantage of new
energy remains unapparent, the new energy has not yet
gone into large-scale application, and the carbon seques-
tration technology has not yet been refined. From 2030 to
2050, as the related technologies develop, the cost of new
energy becomes competitive with that of fossil fuels, to-
gether with landings and promotions of new energy pro-
jects. Thus, carbon dioxide emissions can be largely re-
duced. Once the carbon sequestration technology reaches
the requirements of popularization and application, it
will largely contribute to carbon neutral. Overall, carbon
replacement will become the backbone force during the
carbon neutral process. It is predicted that by 2050, its
contribution will take up 47% of the global carbon neu-
tral efforts, while carbon reduction, carbon sequestration,
and carbon cycle take up 21%, 15%, and 17%, respectively.
3. The significant position of new energy in
the process of carbon neutral
New energy refers to the non-fossil carbon-free re-
newable clean energy that is further developed and util-
ized based on new technologies, replacing conventional
energy. The main types include solar energy, wind energy,
biomass energy, hydrogen energy, thermal energy, ocean
energy, nuclear energy, new material stored energy, and
so on[16]. Compared with conventional carbon-containing
fossil energy, new energy differs from theoretical tech-
nology, utilization cost, environmental influence, man-
agement method, and other aspects. As the new energy
technology rapidly develops, together with the improve-
ment of the internet plus, artificial intelligence, new ma-
terials, and other technology, the new energy industry is
in its rising phase and will gradually step into its golden
period of development. Developing new energy and
driving the energy structure transformation is the key to
achieve carbon neutral. The acceleration of new energy
development and utilization has become the driving force
of global energy growth. New energy will gradually re-
place fossil fuels and play a key role in the carbon neutral
 485 
process.
3.1. New energy is the protagonist of the third energy
transformation
Throughout the world's energy development process,
the history of human utilizing energy has undergone two
transformations from wood to coal and from coal to oil
and gas, respectively. Now human beings are experienc-
ing the third transformation that swifts from fossil fuels
to new energy. The clean and low-carbon features of new
energy meet the needs of carbon-neutral development,
turning new energy into the leading role in the third en-
ergy transformation.
Since 1925, global energy has become cleaner. Except
for biomass energy, the development of new energy has
been accelerating. From 1925 to 2019, global energy needs
increased from 14108 t of oil equivalent to 144108 t
equivalent, which is a ten-fold increase. The new energy
proportion in global energy resources has grown from
0.6% to 15.1%, having a 24-fold increase[17] (Fig. 4).
In the recent decade, the global energy technology
revolution significantly accelerates. The cost of photo-
voltaic power generation and wind power generation
largely reduces, promoting the green transformation of
the energy system. According to the IRENA report, since
2019 the levelized cost of electricity from photovoltaic
power (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP), and on-
shore and offshore wind power have dropped about 82%,
47%, 39%, and 29%, respectively[18]. In 2019, 56% of the
large-scale installed capacity of the new energy power
generation that is newly put into operation and con-
nected to the grid, can generate power at a price lower
than conventional fossil fuels. From 2010 to 2019, the
energy from photovoltaic power increased from 32 TWh
to 699 TWh with an annual increase of 240%; the energy
from wind power increased from 342 TWh to 1404 TWh
with an annual increase of 45% (Fig. 5).
Fig. 4. Chart of the global energy structure variation trend
from 1925 to 2019 (modified from the reference [17]).
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491
Fig. 5. Global photovoltaic power and wind power output
from 2010 to 2019 (modified from the reference [17]).
3.2. New energy is the leader of carbon neutral
In views of energy production and consumption
structure, world energy structure has been divided into
four parts by coal, oil, gas, and new energy. According to
the research prediction, the year of 2030 will be the
turning point for new energy as the cost of many types of
new energy will drop to a competitive level with fossil
fuel and the energy de-carbonization trend will go
stronger. As predicted in 2030, global primary energy
resource will reach a peak value of 156108 t oil equiva-
lent at an annual average increase rate of 1.2% with 19%
of coal, 28% of petroleum, 26% of natural gas, and 27% of
new energy (Fig. 6)[15]. In 2025, it is predicted that the
increase in the need for petroleum will slow down while
in 2030 the need for petroleum will enter its platform
period. Since natural gas is characterized by its low car-
bon content, it is expected to be the only fossil fuel that
will grow in long term.
As predicted, after 2030 the cost of new energy will be
lower than that of fossil fuels. From 2030 to 2050, the
global total primary energy consumption will be main-
tained at a relatively stable level. In 2050, the global total
primary energy consumption will be basically the same as
in 2030, with coal accounting for 4%, petroleum 14%,
natural gas 22%, and new energy 60%. The world energy
consumption structure will embrace fundamental
Fig. 6. Global energy structure variation trend from 2019
to 2050 (modified from references [15], [17] and [18]).
 486 
changes, forming a "one big and three small" structure with
new energy as the mainstay, and new energy will exceed coal,
petroleum, and natural gas and become the main energy.
3.3. The role of new energy in the carbon neutral process
Solar energy, wind energy, hydro-energy, nuclear en-
ergy, and hydrogen energy are the main forces of new
energy, to achieve low-carbon emissions. Since 2019, the
average cost of new energy power generation has been
lower than that of gas power generation but overall, it is
still 16% higher than that of coal power generation[19]. As
predicted by 2030, building a photovoltaic or wind power
project can have an average level of investment lower
than building a coal power generation plant in most cases.
Almost all Asia-pacific markets can have costs of photo-
voltaic and wind power generation lower than that of coal
power generation[19]. In 2050, new energy power genera-
tion can satisfy 80% of the global electricity demand, in
which half of the total power output can be cumulatively
taken up by photovoltaic and wind power generation[9].
“Green hydrogen” is the reserve force of new energy,
helping industry, transportation, and other fields to fur-
ther reduce carbon emissions. The electricity price takes
up 60% to 70% of the cost of hydrogen production by
water electrolysis. However, as the electricity price drops
dramatically, the cost of “green hydrogen” will drop
quickly. In about 2030, “green hydrogen” is expected to
have a greater cost advantage than fossil fuels[20]. In 2050,
the proportion of global hydrogen energy in terminal
energy consumption is expected to reach 18%. By then,
“green hydrogen” technology is fully developed and can
be applied to the fields that can hardly achieve zero car-
bon emission via electrification[2123], which mainly in-
cludes steel, oil refining, synthesis ammonia and hydro-
gen for industrial use, and long-distance transportation
fields including heavy trucks and ships.
Artificial carbon conversion technology is the bridge
connecting new energy and fossil energy and can effec-
tively reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels. It con-
verts the excess power into chemical products and fuels
for storage, thus cutting the peak and filling the valley of
the new energy power grid.
Power to gas is the main form of artificial carbon con-
version. It can rearrange carbon dioxide to produce
methane and is viewed as the key to Europe to achieve
energy transformation. According to the prediction, in
2050, 10% to 65% of the energy consumption in the
European industry comes from the power to gas tech-
nology while the proportion in the heating industry and
transportation industry is 30% to 65%[2324].
4. China’s carbon neutral implementation
path
4.1. China’s carbon neutral target and route map
Chinese government commits to achieve carbon neu-
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491
tral and will make policies to promote the carbon neutral
process. In November 2020, Xi Jinping delivered a speech
in the United Nations General Assembly: “China will
scale up its nationally determined contributions by
adopting more vigorous policies and measures, and strive
to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,
and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060”[25]. Then,
in December, the white paper China's Energy Develop-
ment in the New Era was released, comprehensively ex-
pounding the main policies and major measures of Chi-
na’s energy security development strategy in the new
stage and new era.
The report Research on China's Long-term Low Carbon
Development Strategy and Transformation Path pointed
out that in around 2025, China’s carbon dioxide emis-
sions will enter peak platform period and China will
strive to stably reach the peak value by 2030, limiting the
peak value of carbon dioxide consumed by fossil fuels
within 110108 t and setting the carbon dioxide emissions
in 2035 to be significantly lower than peak year[26]. Based
on the reduced levels of peak carbon dioxide emissions,
this research predicts China's carbon emissions in 2060
under three scenarios: low, medium, and high (Fig. 7).
Under the low-level scenario, carbon dioxide emissions
will be reduced to 40% of the peak value with emissions
of 44108 t; under the medium-level scenario, carbon
dioxide emissions will be reduced to 30% of the peak
value with emissions of 33108 t; under the high-level
scenario, carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced to
20% of the peak value with emissions of 22108 t. The
remaining emissions will be consumed via approaches
that mainly include carbon dioxide sequestration and
utilization, artificial carbon conversion, and forest carbon
sink. The medium-level and high-level scenarios have
greater demands of carbon neutral technologies includ-
ing carbon dioxide sequestration, utilization, artificial
carbon conversion and forest carbon sink, and therefore
inputs of these fields should be increased.
4.2. China’s carbon neutral implementation path
Compared with other countries, China will face many
Fig. 7. Forecast of China’s carbon emissions trend.
 487 
challenges on the road to carbon neutrality, such as large
carbon emissions, fossil energy-based energy consump-
tion, and short buffer time from carbon peak to carbon
neutrality. China is the largest carbon dioxide emitter in
the world. In 2019, China’s carbon dioxide emissions ac-
count for 29.8% of the global total emissions, even higher
than the sum of the US (14.4%), India (7.0%), and Russia
(4.7%). At present, fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum,
and natural gas are still dominant in the energy con-
sumption in China, especially for coal taking up more
than half of the total amount. China’s total energy con-
sumption in 2019 was 34108 t of oil equivalent, where
coal accounts for 58% and petroleum accounts for 19%[18].
The period for China from peak carbon emissions to
carbon neutral is only 30 years, meaning carbon emis-
sions need to drastically drop to go carbon neutral once
peak emissions are reached. The committed period made
by European Union from peak carbon emissions to car-
bon neutral is 60 to 70 years, where buffering time is
twice as long as China’s. Based on China’s national con-
ditions, carbon neutral models of other countries cannot
be directly duplicated, and it is necessary to develop a
carbon neutral implementation path in line with China's
resource endowment and national conditions. On the way
to becoming a carbon neutral country, China needs to
work together in power, industry, construction, agricul-
ture, and other fields to reduce "black carbon" emissions
and make "gray carbon" available (Table 2).
4.2.1. Promoting efficient and clean use of coal
The abundant coal resources in China are the main
energy type and crucial industry raw materials. Vigorous
promotion in efficient and clean use of coal can not only
effectively control carbon dioxide emissions, but also give
play to the main role of coal in ensuring national energy
security. The efficient and clean use of coal includes the
safe, efficient, and green mining operation, pollution
control and purification of coal combustion, New clean
coal combustion, advanced coal-fired power generation,
and clean and efficient coal conversion, etc. Underground
coal gasification is an important approach for clean uti-
lization and can radically change the utilization modes of
mining and use of medium and deep coal, reducing
negative environmental influence caused by coal devel-
opment and utilization. We should strive to realize the
gasification and utilization of China's onshore coal re-
sources with a buried depth of 1000 to 3000 m, and the
coal resources gasification mining productions of gas
such as methane and hydrogen are estimated to be 272 to
3321012 m3[27]. 50% of the total coal consumption in
China is used for power generation, and therefore a clean
and efficient coal power generation is the top priority of
efficient and clean utilization of coal. The modern coal
chemical industry is mainly based on clean energy and
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491

Table 2. Major approaches and the technology maturity of China’s carbon neutral pathway.
Field Approach Technology maturity Reduction source
New energy power generation Mature, early application
Energy storage technology Mature, early application Reduce “black carbon” emissions
Power
Enhanced energy conversion efficiency Development phase
Carbon capture and sequestration Demonstration phase Reduce “black carbon”
Electro-mobile Early application
Fuel cell power systems Demonstration phase Reduce “black carbon” emissions
Transportation
Enhanced power efficiency Development phase
Biomass energy replacement Early application Take the availability of "gray carbon"
Clean fuel replacement Demonstration phase
Boiler electrification Demonstration phase Reduce “black carbon” emissions
Industry Increased energy efficiency Development phase
Carbon capture and sequestration Demonstration phase Reduce “black carbon”
Artificial carbon conversion Demonstration phase Take the availability of “gray carbon”
Clean heating replacement Mature, early application
Distributed energy resource Demonstration phase
Construction Reduce “black carbon” emissions
Electrification, heat pump Early application
Development of new building materials Development phase
Agricultural machinery electrification Early application
Reduce “black carbon” emissions
Agriculture Crop burning restriction Mature
Livestock manure, straw mulching Mature Take the availability of “gray carbon”
Forestry Afforestation Mature Take the availability of “gray carbon”
Green travel Mature
Electric appliance and products recycling Early application
Living Reduce “black carbon” emissions
Waste disposal and recycling Early application
Energy consumption saving Mature

fine chemicals, including coal gas, coal oil, coal chemicals,
and other products.
4.2.2. Speeding up clean energy replacement
Speeding up implementation of clean energy replace-
ment, optimizing energy structure, and building a clean,
low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system is the crucial
measure for China to achieve carbon neutral. Based on
technology innovation, the cost of solar energy, and wind
energy can be further reduced. The wind power-photo-
electric-stored energy coupling mode can replace thermal
power to take stored energy’s advantages in quick re-
sponse, round-way regulation, and energy buffering, im-
proving new energy system adjusting ability and stability.
Using photothermal-geothermal coupling mode to re-
place coal-fired heating energy can bring the respective
advantages of solar photothermal energy and geothermal
energy, forming complementary heating energy.
4.2.3. Enhancing the function of natural gas as a part-
ner and a bridge in the low-carbon transformation
Natural gas is a low-carbon clean energy, a partner and
bridge for the transition from high-carbon to zero-carbon
energy, and is the mainstay of fossil energy and the cor-
nerstone of energy security in achieving carbon neutrality.
In a carbon neutral context, China’s demand for natural
gas robustly increases. It is estimated that by 2035, the
demanded quantity can rapidly rise to (6500–7000)108
m3. Numerous natural gas production bases with a 10
billion cubic meter production level will be built, in
which the Sichuan, Ordos and Tarim basins are the key
areas, boosting conventional gas production. Emphasis
will be put into making breakthroughs in unconventional
natural gas exploration and development and improving
the industrial layout and policy systems of gas storage and
import channels to maintain the safe use of natural gas.
4.2.4. Vigorously developing the “green hydrogen”
industry and its industrial chain
China needs to accelerate the construction of the hy-
drogen energy industry and promote the implementation
of the “Hydrogen China” strategy, just like coal, oil and
gas, and other industries. China has a strong demand for
hydrogen energy, but most hydrogen products are still
made from fossil fuels (“gray hydrogen”). Replacing “gray
hydrogen” with “green hydrogen” can effectively reduce
carbon dioxide emissions. As predicted by China Hydro-
gen Energy Alliance, in 2030 China will be in the mid-
stage of the development of hydrogen energy market with
an average annual demand of 3500104 t, accounting for
5% of terminal energy consumption; in 2050, China’s
average annual demand for hydrogen hits 6000104 t,
70% of the hydrogen sources is “green hydrogen”, ac-
counting for at least 10% of terminal energy consump-
tion[28], and can reduce carbon dioxide emissions about
7108 t. Besides, the overall development of hydrogen
storage, transportation, hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen
fueling stations, and other industrial chains will be ac-
celerated to deeply integrate with the oil and gas industry.
By utilizing existing infrastructure including natural gas
pipeline network and oil and gas fueling stations, the
natural advantages of oil and gas companies are given

 488 
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491
full play in hydrogen production, hydrogen processing,
and other industrial chain nodes to realize the joint con-
struction of “oil, gas, hydrogen, and electricity”, and
promote the high-quality development of the hydrogen
industrial system.
4.2.5. Increasing the application and promotion of
carbon dioxide burial and sequestration
Carbon dioxide burial and sequestration can largely
reduce carbon dioxide emissions and is the matching
technology of clean utilization of fossil fuels. China’s
coal-dominant resources endowment decides the neces-
sity to accelerate the application and promotion of car-
bon dioxide burial and sequestration, maximizing its
functions in the carbon neutral process and promoting
the efficient and clean use of coal. In the future, the de-
pleted oilfield, gas field, and the underground “paddy
field” after development can be utilized to form an “arti-
ficial carbon dioxide field” that buries ad sequestrates
carbon dioxide (Figs. 8 and 9). So far, PetroChina has
carried out technological breakthroughs including carbon
dioxide flooding in the Jilin, Xinjiang, and Daqing oil-
fields, with an annual oil displacement production of
almost one million tons, making a new breakthrough in
carbon dioxide oil flooding technology.
Fig. 8. Geological map of carbon dioxide underground
burial and sequestration.
Fig. 9. Carbon dioxide underground burial and seques-
tration model.
 489 
China offshore has great potential for submarine car-
bon dioxide geological sequestration with a total seques-
tration capacity of 2.51012 t[29]. According to preliminary
predictions, the effective carbon dioxide sequestration
capacities of the saltwater layer and reservoirs in the
deep Ordos Basin are 133108 t and 19.1108 t, respectively.
The effective carbon dioxide sequestration capacity of the
gas oil reservoir, deep saltwater layer, and coal layer in
the Tuha Basin is 44108 t. The carbon dioxide absorption
and sequestration capacity of the coal layer in the Qin-
shui Basin is estimated to be 1280108 t with an adsorp-
tion capacity over 96%[3032]. In addition, carbon dioxide
oil flooding and gas flooding can not only achieve carbon
dioxide burial and sequestration but also enhance oil and
gas recovery[33].
In the future, the completed oil and gas fields in
Songliao, Bohai Bay, Ordos, Daqing, and other large oil
and gas areas can be built into demonstration bases for
burial and sequestration of "artificial carbon dioxide gas
fields".
4.2.6. Developing carbon conversion and forest carbon
sinks
Developing carbon conversion that converts carbon
dioxide into chemical products and fuels can turn waste
into “wealth”. The “liquid sunshine” technology proposed
by Dalian Institute of Chemistry and Physics, Chinese
Academy of Sciences lets “green hydrogen” react with
carbon dioxide and obtains methanol. Producing 1 ton of
methanol can fix 1.375 tons of carbon dioxide. China's
methanol production capacity is about 8000104 t, which
is mainly produced from natural gas and coal. If all
methanol is produced using the "liquid sunshine" tech-
nology, hundreds of millions of tons of carbon dioxide
can be fixed[34].
Forest carbon sinks should be vigorously developed.
China's major forest zones, such as the southwest and
northeast regions, have a large carbon sink capacity.
From 2010 to 2016, China’s terrestrial vegetation has an
annual average carbon fixation capacity of 11108 t, which
is about 45% of China's annual emissions over the pe-
riod[35]. Afforestation can play a beneficial role in the pro-
cess of carbon neutral.
4.2.7. Establishing market mechanisms to control
carbon emissions
A national carbon emissions trading market will be
established and improved to control carbon emissions
through market mechanisms. The establishment of a
carbon market and an increase in the cost of fossil carbon
utilization will help reduce the consumption of fossil
energy fundamentally and reduce carbon dioxide and air
pollutants emissions. At present, China's carbon emission
trading market is still in the early stage of construction. It
 ZOU Caineng et al. / Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(2): 480–491
is necessary to further improve and complete the relative
rules of the carbon emission trading market, implement
the construction of relevant infrastructure, clarify the
standards and specifications of relevant parties, and im-
prove the national carbon emission trading market sys-
tem.
5. Conclusions
The world today is undergoing profound changes un-
seen in a century. The ecological environment is related
to the survival and sustainable development of mankind
and requires all countries to work together to meet chal-
lenges. Carbon neutral is not only a consensus reached by
mankind in response to global climate change but also a
shared purpose committed by countries all around the
world. Carbon replacement, carbon reduction, carbon
sequestration, and carbon cycle are the four major ap-
proaches of achieving carbon neutral, in which carbon
replacement is the backbone force to realize carbon neu-
tral and is expected to contribute 47% of the carbon di-
oxide emissions reductions in 2050.
The process of carbon neutral accelerates the trans-
formation of global energy from fossil energy to new en-
ergy. New energy has become the main part in the third
energy transformation and will play a leading role in
carbon neutral in the future. The year of 2030 is pre-
dicted to be the turning point of new energy development,
in which the cost of new energy will drop to be able to
compete with fossil energy; new energy will be promoted
and applied on a large scale from 2030 to 2050, and the
downward trend of carbon emissions will accelerate. In
2050, most countries and regions in the world will
achieve carbon neutral, and by then new energy will be-
come the dominant energy resource. It is estimated that
before 2100, the energy consumption structure will
transform from the current “four evenly distributed”
structure to the new “one big and three small” structure
(The “one big” part is the new energy while the other
“three small” parts are coal, petroleum, and natural gas).
In the future, China will gradually develop towards the
new trend of the world energy consumption structure
and realize the leap from the "one big and three small"
(The “one big” part is the coal while the other “three
small” parts are petroleum, natural gas, and new energy)
to the new "three small and one big" structure (the “three
small” parts are coal, petroleum, and natural gas while
the “one big” part is the new energy). The development
and industrialization of hydrogen energy, energy storage
of new materials, controllable nuclear fusion and other
disruptive technologies will be accelerated to realize
China's strategy of "energy independence" with new en-
ergy as the focus and make contributions to a livable and
green planet. This paper only represents the current un-
derstanding of the stage. With the change of science and
 490 
technology and the world pattern in different periods in
the future, the understanding of carbon neutral will con-
tinue to innovate and develop.
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