MODULE 5: DESIGNING AND PRICING AN ACTUARIAL SOLUTION

SECTION 2: OVERVIEW OF ACTUARIAL MODELS

Fundamental Actuarial Formulas: Pricing, Reserving and

Funding

THE PRICING FORMULA

When pricing, the key question to ask is: “Is there balance between the premiums and the combined benefits,
expenses and profits? (i.e., Does initial income equal outgo?” Are the premiums reasonable considering the
obligations of the financial security system? Are the benefits reasonable given the premiums available?).
With that question as a backdrop, (simplified) pricing is essentially a point estimate as of today. The Pricing
Formula, then, can be shown as

Where:
• V0 represents assets at inception, which normally equal zero.
• Btdtvt represents the value at inception of benefits (including expenses and profits) payable in year t.
• πtΔtvt represents the value at inception of premiums receivable in year t.
• vt represents the discount for interest from time t.
• dt represents the adjustment for all other decrements to time t with respect to benefit cash flows.
• Δt represents the adjustment for all other decrements to time t with respect to premium cash flows.
It is important to note that FAP uses the words premiums and benefits in a generic sense. Benefits would include
all payments out of the financial security system and premiums would include all payments into the financial
security system. In a pension plan, for example, premiums would include contributions made into a pension
fund.
In the health practice area, pricing would be used to calculate gross premiums. These premiums are based on
claims costs, expenses, premium and other taxes, commissions, risk and profit charges and adjustments for
investment income. All of these factors are represented in the Pricing Formula.
It should be apparent from the Pricing Formula that the goal for pricing is to set the value of expected income at
inception to the value of expected outgo at inception. This is the basis for pricing under any financial security
system.

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FAP Module 5: Section 2 Overview of Actuarial Models

THE RESERVING FORMULA

When reserving, the key question to ask is: “Are current funds sufficient to meet the financial security system’s
future needs?”
The Reserving Formula can be shown as:

Where:
• Vx represents the assets required in the future.
• Btdx,tvt-x represents the value at x of benefits payable in year t.
• πtΔx,tvt-x represents the value at x of premiums payable in year t.
• vt-x represents the discount for interest from time t to time x.
• dx,t represents the adjustment for all other decrements from x to time t with respect to benefit cash
flows.
• Δx,t represents the adjustment for all other decrements to time t with respect to premium cash flows.

The Reserving Formula can also be depicted as:

This is the retrospective formula rather than the prospective formula and should be familiar to you from
Module 1.

Reserving, then, results in a point estimate after the inception of the financial security system. For example, you
would use the Reserving Formula after the introduction of a particular insurance product or after the
introduction of a retirement benefits program.

Don’t be fooled by the fact that some reserving formulas (and the models upon which they are based) can be
written in the form:

In this case, the future premiums (income) are nil. This is a very common Reserving Formula for claims that are
in pay.

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FAP Module 5: Section 2 Overview of Actuarial Models

You should note that the Pricing Formula is in fact the same as the Reserving Formula applied at time 0. It must
be remembered, however, that the underlying formula is only part of a model. The assumptions used to
determine benefits, premiums and decrements in reserving are not necessarily the same as those used for
pricing. The amounts used for each of the factors, the Bt, the dt, the πt and the interest rate underlying the “v”
must all be specifically chosen for each particular problem at hand. For example, an actuary calculating statutory
reserves for a life insurance product will use premiums and reserving assumptions that are specific to that task
and that depend on the requirements in his specific jurisdiction.

THE FUNDING FORMULA

When funding, the key question to ask is: “Will future funds be sufficient to meet the financial security system’s
future needs?” Funding is a dynamic process that requires the successive application of the Reserving Formula.
Funding can be considered a point estimate for all points in time and can be shown as follows:

Where:
• Vx represents the assets required in the future at time x.
• Btdx,tvt-x represents the value at x of benefits payable in year t.
• πtΔx,tvt-x represents the value at x of premiums payable in year t.
• vt-x represents the discount for interest from time t to time x.
• dx,t represents the adjustment for all other decrements from x to time t with respect to benefit cash
flows.
• Δx,t represents the adjustment for all other decrements to time t with respect to premium cash flows.
• x ≥ 0 illustrates that the formulas apply at all points in the future.
FORMULAS AND THE MODEL FRAMEWORK: THE “PRIMARY” MODELS
For the fundamental actuarial formula, this course presents this simplified formula:

For the purposes of FAP, “primary” models are models intended to solve problems associated with pricing,
reserving or funding of financial security systems.
It is these three formulas, then, that provide the base of the model framework:

Pricing Models Reserving Models Funding Models

V

“Are current funds sufficient to “Will future funds be sufficient

“Is there balance between the
premiums and the benefits?”
to meet the financial security
meet the financial security
system’s future needs?”
system’s future needs?”

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FAP Module 5: Section 2 Overview of Actuarial Models

DEFINING “SECONDARY” MODELS

The parameters for the primary models often have to be modeled themselves. For example, Bt at each time t is
often modeled separately in a “secondary model” and the results from the secondary model are then used as
input into the primary model. In this module, the models or techniques used for these purposes are defined as
“secondary” models.
You will often hear actuaries refer to experience studies or experience rating techniques as “models.” These are
models in that they help you represent observed, measurable, real-world phenomena. In FAP terminology, they
are generally secondary models.
“Secondary” models support primary models by specifying a possible parameter, for example B t, for the primary
model. Experience studies, experience rating and sensitivity models can be used to support the pricing,
reserving or funding calculations. For example, experience rating uses a recursive formula to solve for current
benefits using both previous benefits and a priori expected current benefits.

“SECONDARY” MODELS: A NOTE ABOUT FAP TERMINOLOGY

You should note that the terms “primary” models and “secondary” models are convenient, though not generally
used, terms employed in this module to distinguish their purposes. Typically, the simpler term “models” is used
when referring to any of the parameter—and assumption—setting tools that represent observed, measurable,
real-world phenomena.

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