Professional Documents
Culture Documents
TERRORISM
INDEX
2022
MEASURING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM
IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to define peacefulness; providing
metrics for measuring peace; and uncovering the relationships between business, peace and prosperity as
well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural, economic and political factors that create peace.
IEP is headquartered in Sydney, with offices in New York, The Hague, Mexico City, Brussels and Harare. It
works with a wide range of partners internationally and collaborates with intergovernmental organisations
on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace.
The GTI uses Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database, which contains detailed and structured
event records of every terrorist incident reported in open sources since January 2007. Dragonfly
is a leading risk intelligence and data company that specialises in global security, geopolitics,
crises and instability.
Section 1: Results 8
Global Terrorism Index Map 8
Terrorist Incidents Map 10
Terrorism in 2021 12
Covid-19 and Terrorism 14
Terrorist Groups 14
Ten Countries Most Impacted by Terrorism 19
Expert Contributions 71
• The Technology of Terror: From Dynamite to the Metaverse 72
Dr Christina Schori Liang, Head, Terrorism and Preventing Violent Extremism,
Geneva Centre for Security Policy
• Why Morocco’s Counterterrorism Evolution Matters to Africa 76
Cesar Alvarez Velasquez, Programme Management Officer, Bureau de Programme de Rabat,
Lutte contre le Terrorisme et Formation en Afrique
• Sub-Saharan Africa at a Crossroad 79
Dr Isaac Kfir, IEP Research Fellow
Appendices 83
Endnotes 90
In 2021, deaths from terrorism fell by 1.2 per cent to 7,142 State (IS) affiliates led to a surge in terrorism in many countries
deaths and are now a third of what they were at their peak in the Sahel. Highlighting the magnitude of the problem,
in 2015. The minor fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction terrorism deaths have risen by over one thousand per cent
in the impact of terrorism, with 86 countries recording an between 2007 and 2021 in the Sahel. Terrorism deaths in Niger
improvement, compared to 19 that deteriorated. However, the more than doubled in 2020, rising to 588. Deaths attributed to
number of attacks globally increased by 17 per cent to 5,226. Islamic extremist groups such as Islamic State in West Africa
As such, the lethality of attacks decreased from 1.6 deaths (ISWA), Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), Boko Haram
per attack to 1.4 deaths per attack over the 12-month period. and Al-Shabaab recorded deaths as far south as Mozambique,
Russia and Eurasia had the largest regional improvement. with 43 per cent occurring in the Sahel.
The number of countries experiencing at least one death from The situation in the Sahel is rapidly deteriorating, with eight
terrorism in the past year was 44, a slight increase compared attempted coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Chad
with the 43 countries in 2020. Another 105 countries had no in the last eighteen months. The underlying drivers are
deaths or attacks from terrorism in 2021. This is the highest complex and systemic, including poor water utilisation, lack
number of countries since 2007. of food, malnutrition, strong population growth, and weak
governments, with most of the terrorist activity occurring
The data shows a shift in the dynamics of terrorism, with along borders where government control is weakest. Adding
it becoming more concentrated in regions and countries to the complexity, many criminal organisations increasingly
suffering from political instability and conflict, such as the
represent themselves as Islamic insurgents.
Sahel, Afghanistan. Violent conflict remains a primary driver
of terrorism, with over 97 per cent of terrorist attacks in 2021
JNIM is the fastest growing group globally, recording the
taking place in countries in conflict. All of the ten countries
largest increase in the number of attacks and deaths in 2021.
most impacted by terrorism in 2021 were involved in an armed
It was responsible for 351 deaths in 2021, an increase of 69 per
conflict in 2020.1 Attacks in countries involved in conflict are
cent. In contrast ISWA is the most lethal group in the Sahel,
six times deadlier than attacks in peaceful countries.
with the group responsible for on average 15.2 deaths per
attack in Niger.
There were serious deteriorations in many countries in Sub-
Saharan Africa (SSA), especially the Sahel. Forty-eight per
In the West, the number of attacks has fallen substantially over
cent, or 3,461, of all terrorism deaths globally occurred in
the last three years, with successive falls each year. Fifty-nine
SSA with four of the ten countries with the largest increases
in deaths from terrorism residing in SSA: Burkina Faso, the attacks and ten deaths were recorded in 2021, a decrease of 68
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and Niger. Three of and 70 percent respectively since the peak in 2018. In Europe,
these countries are in the Sahel. Islamist extremists carried out three attacks in 2021. Attacks in
the US also dropped to the lowest level since 2015, with only
On a more positive note, there was a ten per cent seven attacks recorded in 2021. None were attributed to any
improvement in terrorism deaths in SSA. The improvement known terrorist group. Fatalities in the US increased slightly,
can be attributed to the successful counter insurgency from two to three between 2020 and 2021.
operations targeting Boko Haram where deaths caused by
the group declined by 72 per cent between 2020 and 2021 Politically motivated terrorism has now overtaken religiously
from 629 deaths to 178 deaths. Nigeria recorded the second motivated terrorism, with the latter declining by 82 per cent
biggest reduction in deaths. This is more than the overall in 2021. In the last five years, there have been five times more
decrease in terrorism deaths in SSA. Attacks by the group politically motivated terrorist attacks than religiously motivated
also significantly deceased, halving from the prior year to 64 attacks. There are now noticeable similarities between far-
attacks. left and far-right extremist ideologies, with both targeting
government and political figures. Since 2007, 17 per cent of
The Sahel is of serious concern. The expansion of Islamic terrorist attacks by these groups have targeted this category.
Additionally, while the motivation can be inferred, most attacks
10 8 6 4 2 0
83 Lithuania 0.827 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 2 =93 Equatorial Guinea 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Namibia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
84 Mauritania 0.509 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 3 =93 Eritrea 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Nicaragua 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
85 Vietnam 0.407 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 3 =93 Estonia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 North Korea 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=86 Angola 0.291 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 3 =93 Georgia 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 1 =93 Oman 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=86 Czech Republic 0.291 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 3 =93 Ghana 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Panama 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=86 Denmark 0.291 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 3 =93 Guatemala 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Papua New Guinea 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=86 Gabon 0.291 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 3 =93 Guinea 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Poland 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 5
=86 Kosovo 0.291 Arrows-alt-h =93 Guinea-Bissau 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Portugal 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=86 Sudan 0.291 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 3 =93 Guyana 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Qatar 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
92 Taiwan 0.227 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 4 =93 Haiti 0.000 Arrows-alt-h Republic of the
=93 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
Congo
=93 Albania 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Honduras 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Serbia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Armenia 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 6 =93 Hungary 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 4
=93 Sierra Leone 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Azerbaijan 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 6 =93 Iceland 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Singapore 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Belarus 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Jamaica 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Slovakia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Kazakhstan 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 18
=93 Bhutan 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Slovenia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Kuwait 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 6
=93 Bolivia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 South Korea 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
Bosnia and =93 Kyrgyz Republic 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 1
=93 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 South Sudan 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
Herzegovina =93 Laos 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 22
=93 Swaziland 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Botswana 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Latvia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 The Gambia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Bulgaria 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Lesotho 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Timor-Leste 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Cambodia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h =93 Liberia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
Central African =93 Trinidad and Tobago 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 28 =93 Macedonia (FYR) 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
Republic =93 Turkmenistan 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Costa Rica 0.000 =93 Madagascar 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 24
Arrows-alt-h =93 United Arab Emirates 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Croatia 0.000 =93 Malawi 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
Arrows-alt-h =93 Uzbekistan 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Cuba 0.000 =93 Mauritius 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 6
Arrows-alt-h =93 Zambia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Djibouti 0.000 =93 Moldova 0.000 LONG-ARROW-ALT-DOWN 6
Arrows-alt-h =93 Zimbabwe 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
=93 Dominican Republic 0.000 =93 Mongolia 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
Arrows-alt-h
=93 El Salvador 0.000 =93 Montenegro 0.000 Arrows-alt-h
Arrows-alt-h
DESCRIPTION
1 COUNTRY AFGHANISTAN PROVINCE KABUL DEATHS 170 A suicide bomber killed at least 170 people and injured at least 200 others when he
detonated his explosives at Kabul International Airport. The attack was followed by
ISLAMIC STATE -
another suicide bomb nearby, with reports of gunfire. Islamic State - Khorasan Province
DATE 26/8/21 GROUP KHORASAN
claimed responsibility for the attack.
PROVINCE
2 COUNTRY BURKINA FASO PROVINCE YAGHA DEATHS 160 Gunmen killed at least 160 people and wounded at least 40 others in Solhan village in
the Sahel region. The assailants first attacked members of a volunteer defence force
militia before attacking civilians and burning down houses and a market. No group had
DATE 5/6/21 GROUP UNKNOWN
claimed responsibility for the attack but jihadists operate in the area.
3 COUNTRY NIGER REGION TAHOUA DEATHS 137 Gunmen killed 137 civilians in three coordinated attacks in the Tahoua region. Islamic
State West in Africa (ISWA) claimed responsibility, saying they targeted pro-government
ISLAMIC STATE IN
DATE 21/3/21 GROUP militia members.
WEST AFRICA (ISWA)
Gunmen killed at least 100 civilians they forced from their homes in Kandahar
4 COUNTRY AFGHANISTAN PROVINCE KANDAHAR DEATHS 100
province. The Ministry of Interior Affairs said that at least another 200 people remained
unaccounted for. The Ministry said the Taliban was responsible, although the group
DATE 22/7/21 GROUP TALIBAN
denied it had carried out the attack.
A series of three bombs killed at least 86 civilians, most of them students, and wounded
5 COUNTRY AFGHANISTAN PROVINCE KABUL DEATHS 86 150 others at a high school in Kabul province. A car bomb initially exploded, followed
by two others of unspecified type that detonated as students fled outside. No group
had claimed responsibility for the attack, but based on location and tactic jihadists were
DATE 8/5/21 GROUP UNKNOWN probably responsible. The Taliban issued a statement denying responsibility for the
attack.
6 COUNTRY BURKINA FASO REGION SAHEL DEATHS 80 Gunmen killed 59 civilians, 15 security forces personnel and six pro-government
militiamen, and wounded 19 others, in an attack on a military convoy that was escorting
JAMAAT NUSRAT
civilians on the road between Arbinda and Gorgadji in the Sahel region. Jamaat Nusrat
DATE 18/8/21 GROUP AL-ISLAM WAL
Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) claimed responsibility for the attack.
MUSLIMEEN (JNIM)
7 COUNTRY NIGER REGION TILLABERI DEATHS 70 Gunmen on motorbikes killed around 70 civilians and wounded around 17 others in
the village of Tchombangou. Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) claimed responsibility,
ISLAMIC STATE IN
DATE 2/1/21 GROUP saying they targeted pro-government militia members.
WEST AFRICA (ISWA)
8 COUNTRY BURKINA FASO REGION SAHEL DEATHS 53 Gunmen killed at least 49 police officers and four civilians at a police post near an
abandoned mine in the Sahel region at around 0500hrs on 14 November. No group
JAMAAT NUSRAT
had claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing, but local media outlets
DATE 14/11/21 GROUP AL-ISLAM WAL
reported that Jamaat Nustrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) was probably responsible.
MUSLIMEEN (JNIM)
9 COUNTRY AFGHANISTAN PROVINCE KUNDUZ DEATHS 50 A suicide bomber detonated explosives during Friday prayers in a Shia mosque in the
Kunduz province. Local officials reported that at least 50 civilians were killed and 140
ISLAMIC STATE -
DATE 8/10/21 GROUP more wounded. Islamic State - Khorasan Province claimed responsibility.
KHORASAN PROVINCE
Four suicide bombers killed at least 47 people and injured at least 80 others in an attack
10 COUNTRY AFGHANISTAN PROVINCE KANDAHAR DEATHS 47
on a Shia mosque in Kandahar province. Two suicide bombers detonated explosives at
ISLAMIC STATE - the entrance to the mosque, followed by two further detonations inside the mosque.
DATE 15/10/21 GROUP
KHORASAN PROVINCE Islamic State - Khorasan Province claimed responsibility for the attack.
11 COUNTRY AFGHANISTAN PROVINCE KANDAHAR DEATHS 47 Four suicide bombers killed at least 47 people and injured at least 80 others in an attack
on the Imam Bargah Shia mosque in Kandahar, Kandahar province at around 1300hrs on
ISLAMIC STATE - 15 October. Two suicide bombers detonated their vests at the entrance to the mosque,
DATE 15/10/21 GROUP KHORASAN followed by two further detonations inside the mosque. Islamic State - Khorasan
PROVINCE Province claimed responsibility for the attack.
12 COUNTRY BURKINA FASO REGION NORD DEATHS 41 Gunmen killed at least 41 civilians, including members of the Volontaire pour la Defense
de la Patrie (VDP) militia, in an attack on a convoy of market traders under escort in
JAMAAT NUSRAT the Nord region. Among the VDP casualties was a senior commander. Supporters of
DATE 23/12/21 GROUP AL-ISLAM WAL Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) released a video saying the group was
MUSLIMEEN (JNIM) responsible.
13 COUNTRY NIGER REGION TILLABERI DEATHS 37 Gunmen killed 37 civilians in an attack on the village of Daraidey in the Tillaberi province.
Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) claimed responsibility the following month, saying it
ISLAMIC STATE IN
DATE 16/8/21 GROUP had targeted militia members.
WEST AFRICA (ISWA)
BAGHDAD A bomb killed at least 35 civilians and wounded at least 60 others at a market in the
14 COUNTRY IRAQ CITY
GOVERNORATE
DEATHS 35
Baghdad governorate. The attack targeted a Shia majority neighbourhood on the eve of
the Eid Al-Adha holiday. Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack and said it
DATE 19/7/21 GROUP ISLAMIC STATE (IS) was a suicide bombing. However, security forces said the device was a static explosive.
15 COUNTRY MALI REGION MOPTI DEATHS 33 Gunmen killed at least 33 civilians and injured at least seven others in an attack on a
public bus in the Mopti region on 3 December. No group had claimed responsibility at
DATE 3/12/21 GROUP UNKNOWN the time of writing, but jihadists operate in the area.
16 COUNTRY MALI REGION GAO DEATHS 33 Around 100 assaillants killed 33 soldiers and wounded 14 others in an ambush against
a military patrol in the Gao region. Security forces retaliated, allegedly killing 20
ISLAMIC STATE IN
DATE 15/3/21 GROUP assailants. Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) claimed responsibility.
WEST AFRICA (ISWA)
BAGHDAD
17 COUNTRY IRAQ CITY
GOVERNORATE
DEATHS 32 Two consecutive suicide bombings killed at least 32 civilians and wounded 110 more at
a market in the Baghdad governorate. Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility for
DATE 21/1/21 GROUP ISLAMIC STATE (IS) the attack.
The total number of deaths from terrorism declined in 2021, countries improved then deteriorated. In 2021, 25 countries
falling by 1.2 per cent to 7,142 (Figure 1.1). This is the fourth recorded reductions in terrorism deaths, while 21 countries
consecutive year where deaths from terrorism remained fairly recorded increases and 117 countries recorded no change in the
constant. However, there has been a 33 per cent reduction since number of deaths. One hundred and five countries did not
the peak in 2015 when 10,699 people were killed in terrorist record any terrorism incidents.
attacks.
The GTI assesses four measures, the number of attacks, deaths,
The primary driver of this reduction in 2021 has been a fall in wounded and hostages, using a 5 year weighting system to
the intensity of conflict in the Middle East, and the subsequent determine the level of impact for any given year. The weighting
decline of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. However, system allows for the impact of the lingering effect of terrorism
increases in the number of deaths were recorded in three of the on a country’s psyche.
nine regions - Asia-Pacific, North America and South Asian
regions, which increased by 303, 66 and eight per cent Although the number of deaths from terrorism has remained
respectively. North America was off a very low base, recording fairly constant for the last four years it is still a major global
three deaths from terrorism in 2020 and five in 2021. threat. The number of terrorism incidents remains substantially
higher than a decade ago, while there has been a slight increase
Despite the year-on-year fall in deaths, the number of attacks in the number of countries experiencing terrorism, from 43 in
rose from 4,458 in 2020 to 5,226 in 2021, a 17 per cent increase 2020 to 44 in 2021.
and the highest number of attacks recorded since 2007, largely
due to violence in the Sahel region and instability in country FIGURE 1.1
such as Afghanistan.
Total terrorism deaths by country, 2020-2021
Although there was a substantial improvement in Nigeria and Total deaths from terrorism fell 1.2 per cent from 2020 to 2021.
sub-Saharan Africa, overall the Sahel recorded a noticeable
deterioration, with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger all recording
substantial increases in terrorism deaths in 2021. Six of the eight 8,000
countries in the Sahel are amongst the ten most impacted
7,000 257
countries for terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa. 393 588 Niger
Mali
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM
666 574
Since COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic by the World 6,000
658 599 Somalia
Health Organization (WHO) in March 2020, a rise in terrorism
was anticipated. However, the evidence suggests that the 5,000 732 Burkina Faso
1,252
pandemic has had very little impact on terrorism in 2020 and
4,000 Afghanistan
2021. Despite this, the COVID-19 pandemic has presented new 1,426
and distinct counter-terrorism challenges. In particular, the
3,000
increase of government deficits caused by increased public
spending during the pandemic continues to impact on
2,000 4,002
counterterrorism budgets. It is still to be seen whether the All other
3,223 countries
economic impact of COVID on countries that are already fragile
will increase frustrations with governments, aggravating 1,000
existing political tensions and possibly leading to further civil
0
unrest. 2020 2021
The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) found that slightly more Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, IEP calculations
8,000
7,000
39%
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM
6,000
5,000
7%
4,000
8%
3,000 8%
8%
2,000
10%
1,000
20%
0
Afghanistan Burkina Faso Somalia Mali Niger Iraq Rest of
World
Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, IEP calculations
FIGURE 1.3
Largest decreases in deaths from terrorism, 2020–2021
Mozambique had the largest decrease in the number of deaths from terrorism, reversing seven years of consecutive increases.
0
-18
-50 -44
-53 -49
-67 -61
-100 -78
-95
CHANGE IN DEATHS
-150
-200
-250
-236
-300
-350
-400
-391
-414
-450
Mozambique Nigeria Syria Chad Colombia Somalia Cameroon Egypt India Philippines Tanzania
Mozambique recorded the largest decrease of terror related In December, seven deaths were recorded, compared to the
deaths, from 507 deaths in 2020 to 93 in 2021 while Nepal average monthly death rate of 133 for the prior 11 months.
recorded no deaths for the first time since 2016.
Of the 5,226 terrorist attacks recorded in 2021, only 52 per cent
Figure 1.1 shows the distribution of deaths in the five countries were attributed to a group.
with the most deaths from terrorism in 2021, when compared to
2020. Of the five countries that experienced the highest levels of INCREASE AND DECREASE IN TERRORISM
terrorism, four countries, Afghanistan, Mali, Burkina Faso and
Niger, recorded an increase in the number of deaths, while the Figure 1.3 shows the countries that experienced the largest
total number of deaths fell only in Somalia. decreases in terrorism deaths in 2021. Mozambique and Nigeria
experienced the two largest falls in 2021. In 2020, deaths rose by
The most deaths in a single country were recorded in 48 per cent in Mozambique, before falling 82 per cent in 2021.
Afghanistan, accounting for 20 per cent of all deaths. This The fall in deaths in Mozambique was driven by a marked
represents a slight increase from 2020 when Afghanistan decrease in deaths attributed to IS as a result of successful
accounted for 17 per cent of global terrorism deaths. Most of the
deaths were recorded prior to the Taliban taking control of the
country.
600
500
CHANGE IN DEATHS
400
331
300
100 76 74
70
34
16 12
0
Niger Mali Afghanistan Democratic Burkina Iraq Yemen Peru Pakistan
Republic of Faso
Congo
Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, IEP calculations
counter-terrorism measures by the Mozambican forces in by much more significant decreases elsewhere, there were still a
conjunction with Rwanda and the Southern African number of countries with significant increases.
Development Community.2 Deaths in Nigeria fell by 51 per cent
in 2021, following three years of successive increases. This While the number of attacks in Niger remained consistent
decline was due to a fall in deaths attributed to Boko Haram and between 2020 and 2021, the number of terrorism deaths
Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWA), particularly in the increased by 129 per cent to 588, indicating increased attack
Borno region where deaths fell by 71 per cent. ISWA overtook lethality. In 2021, attacks caused on average 7.9 deaths per
Boko Haram as the deadliest terror group in Nigeria in 2021 attack, compared to 3.8 in 2020. This is of particular concern
and, with an increased presence in neighbouring countries such and highlights the growing sophistication and organisational
as Mali, Cameroon and Niger, presents a substantial threat to capabilities of ISWA.
the Sahel region. The fall of Boko Haram coincides with the
death of its leader Abubakar Shekau in May 2021, and the
subsequent defection of his followers in favour of groups such as
ISWA.
Syria had the third largest total fall in deaths, with deaths from
terrorism falling by a third in 2021 to 488 deaths. The fall in
terror-related deaths in Syria can be attributed to the defeats IS
suffered in 2019, after the group was ousted from all of its
territories in the region. Despite this, IS is still a potent force.
Despite initial predictions that the COVID-19 pandemic would have sought to capitalize on many of the secondary effects that
worsen the impact of terrorism in certain regions, it seems that the pandemic had created such as isolation, increased online
the pandemic has had very little impact on terrorism in 2020 activity, and resentment over vaccines and lockdown.3 They have
and 2021. looked to those with real or perceived grievances, with messages
that merge health care issues with ideological propaganda with
The decline is terrorism in the West coincided with the the purpose of amplifying anger and disenchantment.
COVID-19 pandemic. Restrictions on freedom of movement,
public gatherings, travel and an immediate threat on personal Once the emergency measures are removed and societies start to
health may help explain the fall. Public anger from the fringes of live with COVID there is the possibility of an uptake in terrorism
the left and the right have been directed towards lockdown activity. To prevent this, society should pursue a systemic,
restrictions and mandatory vaccinations. However, extremists multi-sectoral, and synchronize response addressing such issues
15,000 6,000
Islamic State
14,000 Al-Shabaab JNIM
The Taliban
13,000 Islamic State Unknown
JNIM
12,000 The Taliban All other groups
Al-Shabaab
11,000
DEATHS FROM TERRRORISM
as mental health, loss of faith in the political system, and lack of by exploiting existing ethnic tensions and positioning
economic opportunities. Adopting innovative programmes themselves as alternate service providers. It may also be the case
aimed at empowering the youth would help respond to the that in the long term, the pandemic and its socio-economic
growing resentment and disillusionment. consequences might increase the likelihood of terrorist threats.
Globally, terror groups such as JNIM in the Sahel region have One of the impacts of the pandemic on terrorism lies within the
successfully exploited local grievances with governance, Internet. The role of the online dimension has increased since
economic and social conditions, particularly in northern and the beginning of the pandemic, terrorist and extremist groups,
central Mali to bolster recruitment. The recent coups in the like others, have partly shifted from a physical to a virtual
Sahel, including Mali, do not bode well for future stability. environment.4,5
National governments in the region are currently supported by With pandemic-related sociocultural restrictions in place across
approximately 14,000 UN peacekeeping troops, as part of the the world, people are spending increasingly more time online,
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization terrorist groups have used the pandemic as an opportunity to
Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), currently at 2,400 French troops spread conspiracy theories and disinformation to undermine
and an additional 500 special forces from 13 European countries confidence in governments and gather more support for their
under a newly established task force. The French ideology.
counterterrorism operation in the region, Operation Barkhane’s
goal is to counter the jihadist in order to allow states in the Notably, political groups continue to view the pandemic as an
Sahel to develop their own defence mechanisms. However, with opportunity to fuel existing narratives with a rise in racist,
African economies being significantly affected by the pandemic, anti-Semitic, Islamophobic or anti-immigrant hate speech.6
it has impacted the ability of African countries, particularly in These groups often use internet forums and chatrooms to
the Sahel, to design and fund counter-terrorism strategies. This, spread their ideology and have been observed exploiting protest
combined with the French government’s announcement that movements against government restrictions and public health
Operation Barkhane will end in early 2022 will almost certainly measures to spread xenophobic and anti-Semitic narratives.7
provide terrorist groups room to continue to gain local support
TERRORISM GROUPS
The four terrorist groups responsible for the most deaths in terrorism, representing 47 per cent of total deaths in 2021.
2021 were Islamic State (IS), Al-Shabaab, the Taliban and Jamaat Another 2,775 of terrorism deaths were not attributed to any
Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) as shown in Figure 1.5. organisation. Three of these four groups were also the deadliest
These four groups were responsible for 3,364 deaths from groups last year, with JNIM replacing Boko Haram this year.
TABLE 1.1
Ten countries most impacted by terrorism, ranked by GTI score
Afghanistan had the highest impact of terrorism for the third consecutive year.
Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Afghanistan 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1
Iraq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
Somalia 5 7 7 7 8 5 3 3 3 3 3
Syria 20 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 6 5 5
Nigeria 8 5 5 3 2 2 4 4 4 4 6
Mali 41 23 19 21 16 13 10 9 8 7 7
Niger 49 57 44 34 20 19 18 19 14 12 8
Pakistan 2 2 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 8 10
GLOBAL
GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2022 || 19
TERRORISM INDEX 19
10 COUNTRIES MOST IMPACTED BY TERRORISM
In 2021, Afghanistan recorded 1,426 deaths, the highest number Worst attacks
of terror-related deaths in the world, making it the country most
impacted by terrorism for the third consecutive year.
Iraq recorded 833 terrorist attacks in 2021, the highest of any Worst attacks
country. This is an increase of 33 per cent when compared to the
previous year. This is largely as a result of rising political unrest
and instability, which terror groups, particularly IS, are using to
their advantage.24 The number of deaths from terrorism
mirrored this trend on a smaller scale, with Iraq recording 524
deaths in 2021, an increase of 15 per cent when compared to the
prior year.
For the second consecutive year, the military were the target of
the most terrorist attacks and recorded the most casualties of SADR
any group, accounting for 43 per cent of all deaths in Iraq in A bomb killed at least 35 civilians
2021. Despite the number of attacks against the military and wounded at least 60 others
at Al-Wuhailat market in the Sadr
increasing by 60 per cent, the number of deaths amongst this City area of Baghdad, Baghdad
group decreased by six per cent. Civilian fatalities increased by governorate on the evening of 19
July. The attack targeted a Shia
28 per cent from 127 in 2020 to 163 in 2021. majority neighbourhood on the
eve of the Eid Al-Adha holiday.
Attacks were recorded in 18 of Iraq’s 19 governances in 2021, Islamic State (IS) claimed
responsibility for the attack and
with the north-eastern governances the most affected. The said it was a suicide bombing.
governances of Diyala, Sala ad-Din and At-Ta’min made up 48 However, security forces said the
device was a static explosive.
per cent of all terrorist attacks in the country.
In 2021, terrorist attacks and deaths in Somalia fell from the Worst attacks
prior year with both attacks and deaths falling by ten per cent.
This continues an improving trend in terror-related deaths that
began in 2017 and is now only 17 per cent of the overall peak in
2014.
The regions near Burkina Faso’s borders with Niger and Mali
experienced the most terror attacks, accounting for 72 per cent
of all attacks in 2021. Of the country’s 732 deaths in 2021, 491
occurred in the Sahel administrative region, including Burkina SOLHAN
Faso’s deadliest attack of 2021. In June, at least 160 people were Gunmen killed at least 160 people,
killed, including 20 children, and 40 people were wounded including at least 20 children, and
wounded at least 40 others in
when gunmen stormed a village along the northern border with Solhan village, Solhan department,
Niger. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, however, Yagha province, Sahel region at
around 0200hrs on 5 June. The
jihadists are known to operate in the area. This was the second
assailants first attacked members
most-deadly attack in the world in 2021. of a volunteer defence force militia
before attacking civilians and
burning down houses and a
Civilians were the most targeted group for the third consecutive market. No group had claimed
year. Over 65 per cent of terror-related deaths in Burkina Faso responsibility for the attack at the
time of writing but jihadists
were of civilians, which is an increase of 32 per cent compared operate in the area.
with the year prior which outstrips the increase in incidents.
Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) continue to be other group in Burkina Faso in 2021, 94 per cent of attacks and
the most prominent terrorist group in Burkina Faso. Despite 71 per cent of deaths were linked to unknown jihadists.
only taking responsibility for 13 terror attacks in 2021, JNIM’s
death toll rose to 207 deaths in 2021, almost five times the While Burkina Faso continues to cooperate with other Sahel
amount recorded for 2020. JNIM’s lethality rate is now almost countries in counter-terrorism efforts, they have failed to curb
16 deaths per attack compared with 4 deaths per attack in 2020. the threat of jihadist groups such as JNIM. Despite the
JNIM’s preferred tactic remains armed assaults with 54 per cent downward trend in terrorism attacks and deaths, Burkina Faso
of their attacks targeting military personnel and law recorded the largest deterioration in peacefulness on the 2021
enforcement. Global Peace Index, falling 13 places. Burkina Faso’s political
instability and high tensions due to civilian anger at the
Burkina Faso has one of the highest unclaimed terrorist deaths government’s inability to stem terrorist attacks and violence
at 71 per cent. It is feasible to assume that the majority of these have led to an increase in riots and violent protests. This
attacks would have been carried out by JNIM. increase in internal conflict has diverted the attention of
security forces towards combating Islamist insurgency,
While JNIM took responsibility for more terror attacks than any weakening efforts to maintain law and order.30
1,000
4,232
Islamic State (IS) Private Citizens
& Property
800
Kurdistan Workers’ Other
600 Party (PKK)
Police & Military
400 Unknown
Government
200 Other
Unknown
0
2007 2021
In 2021, the conflict in Syria passed its ten-year anniversary. Worst attacks
Following increased armed conflict after a period of de-
escalation, deaths from terrorism rose significantly in 2020.
The military remains the most common target for attacks and
the group with the most casualties, followed by civilians. Syria’s
deadliest terror attack of 2021 occurred when gunmen killed 13
soldiers in an attack on a military vehicle in the Homs AL-SUKHNA - DEIR EZZOR
Governorate, north-east of Damascus. No group claimed Gunmen killed 13 soldiers
and wounded an
responsibility for the attack, however local media outlets unconfirmed number of
reported that IS was responsible. others in an attack on a
military vehicle on the
Al-Sukhna - Deir Ezzor
The northern provinces were the most affected by terrorism in highway, Homs governorate,
on 7 September. No group
2021, with 45 per cent of attacks occurring in Deir ez-Zor and had claimed the attack at
Aleppo governorates. This is a decrease of 32 per cent from the the time of writing, but local
previous year’s figures for the same provinces. These media outlets reported that
Islamic State (IS) was
governorates retained their positions as the governorates with responsible.
the highest number of terror attacks in 2021 with 77 and 75
attacks respectively. Aleppo recorded the same number of
attacks in the year prior, while attacks in Deir ez-Zor declined by
48 per cent when compared with the previous year.
IS remained the deadliest terrorist group in Syria for the eighth form of armed assaults. Explosive attacks have significantly
consecutive year, accounting for 49 per cent of total deaths and declined, from over a third of IS attacks in 2020 to only 16 per
32 per cent of claimed incidents. Despite this, terror attacks and cent of IS attacks in 2021. There were no suicide bombings by IS
deaths by IS fell by 34 per cent and 26 per cent respectively, in Syria in 2021.
when compared with the year prior. However, 54 per cent of
attacks were not attributed to an organisation. Despite US and Syrian military forces reclaiming the final
territorial stronghold of IS in Syria in 2019, IS has maintained a
The lethality of IS attacks against civilians declined substantially low-level insurgency. In Syria, IS appears to be consolidating in
from an average of 30 deaths per attack in 2016 to just over 2 desert regions and are awaiting the next stage of its insurgency.
deaths per attack in 2021, a decline of 93 per cent. IS continues With the US continuing to withdraw its forces from combat
to shift their focus from targeting civilians to targeting military roles in the area, it is possible IS will resume its activity in an
personnel, which comprised 79 per cent of IS casualties in 2021. attempt to regain control of the area.31
Total deaths from terrorism in Nigeria fell to 448 in 2021, the Worst attacks
lowest level since 2011. Terror-related casualties dropped by
almost half compared with the previous year. However, the
number of terrorist attacks increased by 49 per cent between MAINOK
2020 and 2021. Gunmen killed over 30 soldiers
at an army base in Mainok,
Kaga area, Borno state, in an
36 per cent of attacks were claimed by ISWA, Boko Haram being attack that lasted from an
unspecified time in the
responsible for eight per cent and 44 per cent not attributed to afternoon until about 00:00hrs
any group. on 25 April. No group had
claimed the attack at the time
of writing, but local media
Law enforcement, including police and prison officers overtook outlets said Islamic State in
both military and civilians as the most targeted group of 2021. West Africa (ISWA) were
responsible.
Attacks against police and prisons increased substantially from
one recorded attack in 2020 to 75 in 2021, accounting for over a commanders have joined ISWA after Shekau’s death.33 Attacks
third of all attacks in Nigeria in 2021. This was largely driven by by ISWA as well as counter-terrorism efforts by the Nigerian
an increase in clashes between law enforcement and separatist government and foreign military forces have significantly
groups, such as the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). Civilian weakened Boko Haram’s impact in Nigeria. These external
deaths dropped 62 per cent from 2020. Military deaths mirrored pressures resulted in an increase in Boko Haram attacks in
this trend, with 2021 recording almost half the number of neighbouring countries, particularly Cameroon which recorded
terrorism deaths from the prior year. 37 attacks and 58 deaths in 2021. Cameroon recorded more
Boko Haram attacks than Nigeria in 2021 for the second
In 2020, ISWA became the deadliest terrorist group in Nigeria. consecutive year.
The decline of Boko Haram continued into 2021, with Boko
Haram responsible for only 69 deaths, a decrease of 77 per cent In 2021, ISWA recorded their highest number of incidents and
from the previous year. This is the lowest number of deaths by third highest death toll since 2017. Overall, ISWA were
the group for a decade. responsible of 39 per cent of all attacks in Nigeria in 2021.
Despite this, the lethality of ISWA attacks has continued to
Boko Haram’s decline has resulted in a substantial improvement decline from 10 deaths per attack in 2018 to almost three deaths
in terrorism in Borno State, which experienced a decrease of 71 per attack in 2021.
per cent in terrorism deaths when compared with the prior year.
Attacks in the state also decreased from 121 to 86 respectively, a ISWA was responsible for Nigeria’s deadliest attack of 2021, with
decrease of 30 per cent. The state, however, remains the hardest gunmen killing over 30 soldiers at an army base in the Borno
hit region in Nigeria for terrorism, accounting for half of all region. ISWA’s main target continues to be military personnel,
terror-related deaths in 2021. with the military being the target of over half of all attacks,
resulting in 45 per cent of casualties attributed to the group in
Boko Haram’s decline coincides with a number of factors, most 2021. Despite the civilian death toll decreasing, ISWA continues
significantly the death of the group’s leader, Abubakar Shekau. to increase its attacks on civilians, from 11 in 2020 to 19 in 2021.
Shekau, who committed suicide by detonating an explosives vest
during a confrontation with ISWA in May 2021.32 Given the With the decline of Boko Haram in Nigeria and Shekau’s death,
demise of their leader, Shekau’s followers were faced with the it is expected that ISWA will continue to integrate surviving
decision to either continue Shekau’s ideology or join ISWA. It members of Shekau’s group, bolstering its fight against the
has been reported that as many as 18 former Boko Haram Nigerian government’s counter-terrorism efforts.34
In 2021, Mali recorded the highest number of terrorist attacks Worst attacks
and deaths in the last decade. Rising political instability added
to the difficulties of fighting terrorism. Attacks and deaths from
terrorism in Mali increased by 56 per cent and 46 per cent
respectively, when compared with the previous year. This is the
largest year-on-year increase since 2017, continuing an upward
trend that began with the 2015 declaration of a state of
emergency in the wake of the Radisson Blu Hotel attack in
Bamako.
JNIM continue to be the most prominent group in Mali, being opportunity to exploit dissatisfaction with the Malian
responsible for 72 terror attacks in 2021, an increase of 80 per government.35 Despite the establishment of trans-regional
cent from the previous year. JNIM’s attacks largely target the counter-terrorism forces such as G5 Sahel, there have been few
Malian military and peacekeeping operations, however, the military victories over jihadist insurgency groups. The large
majority of deaths attributed to the group were civilians. area covered by the tri-border region compared with the
relatively small numbers of Malian military personnel and
Armed assaults involving firearms continue to be the favoured counter-terrorism forces means that resources are too stretched
tactic of JNIM, with these accounting for over half JNIM’s to be effective in the area. The decision by France to withdraw
attacks for 2021. Explosives was the next most popular tactic, its troops and end Operation Barkhane by the first quarter of
with JNIM using bombs to inflict damage and disrupt French 2022 is likely to present further challenges for counter-terrorism
Barkhane counter-terrorism operations and MINUSMA efforts in the region.36
peacekeeping efforts. However, the lethality of JNIM’s attacks
have continued to decrease, from 1.9 deaths per attack in 2021
compared to 3.9 deaths per attack in 2020.
ISWA overtook Boko Haram as the most active terrorist group in led to severely over-stretched and under-resourced security
Niger in 2021. ISWA were responsible for 23 attacks, spread forces attempting to balance counter-terrorism with internal
largely across the Diffa and Tillaberi regions. Deaths as a result peacekeeping. It is likely that insurgency groups will capitalise
of ISWA attacks accounted for 60 per cent of the total casualties on this instability and terrorism in the Sahel region will
in Niger. ISWA largely targeted Nigerien civilians with this continue to rise.37
group, accounting for 84 per cent of the casualties in 2021.
Pakistan
GTI RANK GTI SCORE 275 DEAD
10 7.825 469
186
INJURED
INCIDENTS
The impact of terrorism increased slightly in Pakistan, with the Worst attacks
country recording a five per cent increase in the number of
deaths in 2021 compared with the previous year. This is the
second consecutive year where an increase in terrorism deaths
was recorded. The number of terror related incidents remained
steady in 2021, with 171 incidents in 2020 and 186 in 2021.
The number of deaths and incidents are 71 per cent and 82 per
cent lower than their respective peaks in the 2011.
Two attacks, involving explosives, were Pakistan’s deadliest Pakistani military operations are expected to continue to reduce
terror-related incidents of 2021. In one incident a truck carrying the impact of terrorism in Pakistan. However, the withdrawal of
civilian passengers was destroyed by a grenade that killed 13 US forces from Afghanistan may cause an increase in regional
people and wounded 7 others near Karachi along the southern instability, providing terrorist groups with the opportunity to
coast. In another, 13 people were killed and another 28 injured, cause more harm.42
when a bomb exploded on a bus carrying Chinese workers,
engineers and mechanics near the northern Afghanistan border.
No group claimed responsibility for either attack.
There have been several distinct phases in terrorist activity over total since the peak in 2015. Two of the countries with the
the past decade, as shown in Figure 2.1. In 2007-2008, most largest decreases were Iraq and Pakistan. After recording the
terrorist activity globally was concentrated in Iraq and lowest number of deaths in 14 years in 2019, terrorism deaths in
Afghanistan in response to the US and its allies’ activities. After Pakistan increased to 275 in 2021. Despite this, the annual death
the events of the Arab Spring and the emergence of IS, there rate in Pakistan has remained consistently low as the Pakistani
was a surge in terrorism across the Middle East, most notably in military continues to focus on disarming and eliminating
Syria and Iraq, and concurrently in Nigeria. At its peak in 2015, terrorist sleeper cells. The winding down of the Syrian civil war,
over 10,000 people were killed in terrorist attacks in a single the collapse of IS, and increased counterterrorism coordination
year. The Sahel region has also experienced a significant at both the state and international level have all played a role in
increase in the number of terror attacks and fatalities over the reducing the impact of terrorism around the world.
past five years.
As the conflict in Syria subsided, IS and its affiliates have shifted
Although deaths from terrorism have declined in four of the their focus to sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel region in
past five years, the declines have been minimal with the number particular. The Sahel has become increasingly more violent
of deaths remaining fairly constant since 2018. during this period, with deaths increasing ten times between
2007 and 2021. Three of the countries in the Sahel were among
Overall, deaths from terrorism have fallen by over a third in the five countries with the largest increases in terrorism deaths
FIGURE 2.1
Deaths from terrorism, 2007–2021
Total deaths have decreased 33.5 per cent from their peak in 2015.
12,000
All other countries Pakistan
Afghanistan Sahel
10,000 Iraq Europe and
North America
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, IEP calculations
In the West, total terrorist attacks peaked in 2018 at 182 Conflict has been the primary driver of terrorism since 2007. In
incidents while deaths from terrorism recorded their highest 2021, all of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism were
level in 2016, when 191 people died in terrorist attacks. Although involved in an armed conflict in 20201. There were 120,359
the impact of religious motivated and radical jihadist terrorism deaths from terrorism between 2007 and 2020. Of these deaths,
has subsided in the West over the past four years, there has been 92 per cent, or 111,191, occurred in countries involved in conflict.
a rise in the level of politically motivated terrorism. In 2018, the
number of both deaths and incidents caused by political Figure 2.3 illustrates the trend in deaths from terrorism by
terrorism was higher than any other form of terrorism for the conflict type. During the peak of terrorist activity in 2015, most
first time since 2007. In 2021, there were 40 politically motivated deaths from terrorism occurred in war zones, meaning countries
attacks, compared with just three religiously motivated attacks. that had registered over one thousand deaths from conflict in a
single year.
There has also been a reduction in the number of countries
FIGURE 2.2
Distribution of deaths from terrorism, 2007–2021
In 2021, 44 countries recorded at least one death from terrorism, two per cent higher than 2020.
70
60
50
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES
40
30
20
10
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
FIGURE 2.3
Deaths from terrorism by conflict type, 2007–2020
Over 96 per cent of deaths from terrorism occurred in countries currently experiencing a conflict.
20 1
20 2
20 3
20 4
20 5
16
20 7
18
20 9
20
20 7
20 8
20 9
10
20 1
20 2
20 3
14
20 5
16
20 7
20 8
20 9
20
20 7
08
20 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: UCDP, ACLED, Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, IEP calculations
FIGURE 2.4
Deaths from terrorism by target type in countries in conflict, 2007–2021
Even in conflict situations, civilians are more likely to be terrorist targets.
6,000
5,000
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM
4,000
POLICE, MILITARY,
INFRASTRUCTURE
3,000
2,000
CIVILIANS
1,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
While there is no one fixed definition of the West, Since 2007, 61 per cent of fatalities in the West have occurred
IEP’s definition of the West encompasses the from religious attacks. The deadliest religious attacks in the
following countries: West since 2007 were the vehicular attack in Nice on Bastille
Day of 2016 and the attacks in Paris in November 2015, which
Andorra Germany Portugal
both resulted in 87 fatalities each. Both attacks were claimed by
Australia Iceland Spain
Islamic State. Far-right groups account for 30 per cent of all
Austria Ireland Sweden
fatalities over the period. Notable are also the attacks in
Belgium Italy Switzerland
Norway by Anders Behring Breivik in 2011 which killed 77
Canada Luxembourg United Kingdom
people, as well as the Christchurch mosque attacks of March
United States of
Denmark Netherlands 2019 which resulted in 51 deaths.
America
Finland New Zealand Vatican City
France Norway
West Germany FIGURE 2.6
(1970-1990)
Terrorist fatalities in the west by ideology
2007–2021
Since 2007, 60 per cent of fatalities from terrorism have
IEP groups terrorist organisations and ideologies into three been from Islamic groups. This is followed by deaths from
broad categories: political, nationalist/separatist, and religiously far-right attacks which accounts for 30 per cent.
motivated terrorism. For example, far-right terrorism is
classified as a form of political terrorism. There are also a few
organisations that fall outside of this categorisation system, such 400
as environmental and animal rights related terrorism, although
FATALITIES
FIGURE 2.5
Incidents and deaths from terrorism in the West by ideology, 2007–2021
Since 2017, there have been more attacks attributed to political groups than to religious groups in the West.
IDEOLOGY
Far-left Separatist
150
Far-right Unclear
Religious
NUMBER OF ATTACKS
100
50
0
2010 2015 2020
Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, IEP calculations
FIGURE 2.7
Far-left and Far-right terrorism in the west, 2007–2021
Since 2007, more attacks have been attributed to far-left groups than far-right groups in the west.
60
Far-right
Far-left
NUMBER OF INCIDENTS
40
20
0
2010 2014 2018 2022
100
Affiliated
Unaffiliated
75
NUMBER OF INCIDENTS
50
25
0
2010 2015 2020
FIGURE 2.9
Weapons used in political terrorist attacks, 2007–2021
Incendiary devices have been the most common weapon for political terrorists in the West since 2015.
Incendiary,
fire bombs,
explosives
Knives and
offensive
objects
Other/ Unclear
Firearms IDEOLOGY
Left
Right
Vehicle
Chemical
y
rit
Pa
20% Target of more Far-right attacks
10%
While far-left and far-right attacks are nominally carried out for highlighted in Figure 2.10 by moving away from attributing
distinct political agendas, there are overlaps in the targets terrorist activities to left-wing or right-wing groups. Instead,
chosen. Figure 2.10 shows far-right perpetrators target religious they focus on ideologically-motivated extremism and
institutions, private property and ethnic minorities more often religiously-motivated extremism. The change in terminology
than far-left perpetrators. Conversely, far-left groups attack addresses the fact that left-wing and right-wing groups hold
businesses, police and prisons more often. However, both similar attitudes, such as scepticism towards government and
ideologies target government institutions and/or political capitalism. Secondly, the change responds to a growing trend
figures, accounting for 17 per cent of their attacks. whereby no group or individual claims responsibility for an act
of terrorism, with the focus being on disruption.
Some security agencies, such as the Australian Security
Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), have responded to the trend
The impact of terrorism fell in eight of the nine regions of the region had the second lowest. In 2021 there were seven
world in 2021. The largest improvement occurred in Russia and terrorism deaths and eight attacks.
Eurasia, with the region recording a 71 per cent fall in terror
related deaths. Table 2.1 shows the regions of the world by their In 2021, South Asia was the region with the highest average
average GTI score for 2021, as well as changes in score from the score on the GTI, a position it has held since 2007. Conversely,
prior year. Central America and the Caribbean recorded the lowest impact
of terrorism.
TABLE 2.1
GTI score, rank and change in score, A total of 33 deaths from terrorism have been recorded in the
2011-2021 Central America and the Caribbean since 2007, with 24 per cent
of those occurring in 2009. The region has not recorded a death
Average Change Change from terrorism since 2018. However, although the region has
Country
Score 2011-2021 2020-2021 recorded less loss of life from terrorism, it has suffered greatly
from other forms of violent conflict, most prominently an
South Asia 5.559 -0.783 -0.203
increase in homicide associated with organised crime and
North America 4.421 1.507 -0.298 drug-related violence
Middle East and North Africa 3.547 -0.616 -0.294
South America 2.903 0.275 -0.049 Between 2007 and 2021, the largest number of deaths from
terrorism was recorded in the MENA region, at more than
sub-Saharan Africa 2.400 0.433 0.004
49,000 deaths. South Asia recorded roughly 37,000 deaths over
Asia-Pacific 2.045 -0.146 -0.219
the same period, with another 30,500 occurring in sub-Saharan
Europe 1.368 -0.412 -0.284 Africa.
Russia and Eurasia 0.876 -2.460 -0.405
Central America And the Sub-Saharan Africa had the most lethal terrorist attacks,
0.202 -1.132 -0.052
Caribbean
averaging three people killed per attack respectively. Conversely,
in Asia-Pacific, Europe, South America, and Russia and Eurasia,
North America consists of two countries, the US and Canada, there were more terrorist attacks than total deaths from
and neither country has a high GTI score, however the region is terrorism. Figure 2.11 shows total deaths and attacks for all
the only region where no countries have a nil score for regions from 2007 to 2021.
terrorism. In terms of deaths and attacks the North America
FIGURE 2.11
Attacks and deaths from terrorism by region, 2007–2021
The largest number of deaths was recorded in the MENA region, with over 50,000 deaths from terrorism since 2007.
49,674
MENA
21,926
37,001
South Asia
16,765
30,557
sub-Saharan Africa
9,863
4,411
Asia-Pacific
4,560
2,322
Europe
2,779
1,835
South America
3,090
1,399
Russia and Eurasia
1,535 Deaths
273 Attacks
North America
153
33
Central America
and the Carribean 91
FIGURE 2.12
Trend in terrorism deaths by region, 2007–2021 Asia-Pacific
In 2018, the number of terrorism deaths in South Asia and
sub-Saharan Africa exceeded deaths recorded in MENA. Ten countries in Asia-Pacific improved in 2021, compared to two
that deteriorated, resulting in the impact of terrorism falling in
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia the region for the third consecutive year. Seven countries
sub-Saharan Africa showed no change in score last year.
6,000
Overall, the Philippines has had the highest death rate over the
last decade, recording over 1,000 of the 3,250 terrorism deaths
in the region.
3,000
0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
FIGURE 2.13
Type of attack by region, 2007–2021
Explosives and firearm assaults are most the common weapons used in terror attacks all all regions.
sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
South America
North America
MENA
Europe
Central America
and the Caribbean
Asia-Pacific
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Laos recorded the largest improvement in 2021, followed by Terrorism in Mexico is predominantly politically motivated and
China and Malaysia. This is the first year Laos has not recorded criminal activity by cartels is not included as terrorism in this
a terrorist incident since 2005 and now has a score of zero. report. One such politically-motivated group is a radical
environmentalist group, Individualistas Tendiendo a lo Salvaje,
Thailand recorded the second highest number of deaths in the (Individuals Tending to the Wild) who claimed responsibility for
region since 2011, with 776 fatalities. However, terrorism deaths a number of explosive devices planted in commercial centre2 in
in Thailand have decreased steadily since the peak in 2011 at 178 2018 and 2019.
deaths. In 2021, only seven terror-related deaths were recorded
in Thailand, half of the number of deaths in Thailand in 2020. Violence against politicians and journalists continues to
threaten stability in Mexico with a large number of
assassinations occurring in Mexico in the last two years. At least
102 politicians were murdered in the lead up to the election of
June 2021.3 Additionally, nine journalists were killed in 2021, the
same number as the year prior.4
The only terror-related death in France in 2021 was of a police Yemen 5.870 21 -1.724 -0.261
administrative assistant, who was killed after being attacked by Libya 5.100 26 3.367 -0.541
an assailant armed with a knife in a police station in the Iran 5.015 27 -1.140 -0.452
Ile-de-France region. The assailant was killed by police shortly
Israel 4.778 30 -0.843 -0.181
after the attack. No group had claimed responsibility. Of the
Palestinian
remaining six attacks in France in 2021, five were committed by 4.736 32 -0.475 -0.238
Territories
unknown far-left groups and the separatist group Corsican Tunisia 4.447 38 0.801 -0.286
National Liberation Front (FLNC) took responsibility for one Algeria 4.432 39 -2.510 0.105
further incident.
Lebanon 3.566 51 -1.420 -0.517
Saudi Arabia 3.110 54 -0.752 -0.743
The United Kingdom was the third most impacted country in
the region for terrorism. The country recorded 12 attacks in Jordan 2.594 58 0.284 -0.837
2021, half the number of attacks from the previous year. Of these Bahrain 2.145 65 0.322 -0.475
attacks, two resulted in fatalities. In one incident, an assailant Morocco 1.156 76 -3.494 -0.478
stabbed a conservative member of parliament to death inside
Sudan 0.291 86 -5.378 -0.218
Belfairs Methodist church in Essex county. The suspect was
Kuwait 0.000 93 -1.460 -0.158
arrested at the scene and authorities reported that he was linked
to Islamic extremism.6 The other incident was a bombing that Oman 0.000 93 -0.827 0.000
killed only the assailant which was detonated inside a taxi near Qatar 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
Liverpool Women’s Hospital. The target of the attack was United Arab
0.000 93 0.000 0.000
Emirates
unclear, but the incident occurred on Remembrance Sunday. No
group had claimed responsibility. Regional Average -0.616 -0.294
Egypt followed Syria, recording the second best improvement Beyond Iraq and Syria, IS affiliate groups and supporters across
with 66 deaths in 2021 compared to 119 in 2020, a reduction of the MENA region remained active in 2021, including in Egypt,
over 44 per cent. IS and IS - Sinai Province were responsible for Libya and Tunisia. Although Tunisia increased counterterrorism
57 per cent of attacks in Egypt, accounting for over half of efforts against IS-affiliated groups, it did record a slight increase
terrorism deaths. in IS-related deaths in 2021.9
Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Libya had the largest improvements in Over the past decade in the US there has been a shift away from
score in the region. Jordan has not recorded a single terror religiously motivated terrorism towards politically motivated
attack since 2019, and has recorded a total of only 15 terror terrorism. Since 2007, there have been 84 attacks in the US
attacks since 2007, resulting in 26 fatalities. which IEP attributes to politically motivated groups and
individuals, compared to 19 attacks attributed to religiously
Saudi Arabia recorded one attack in 2021, when Saudi air motivated groups. The shift from religious to political terrorism
defences intercepted a missile or armed drone above the city of has also been mirrored by a shift away from terrorism affiliated
Riyadh. No one was injured or killed during the attack and a with specific groups, towards individuals and groups who are
previously unknown, far-left group Alwiya Alwaad Alhaq, driven by a specific ideology, but are not formally affiliated with
claimed responsibility. an organised group. Of the 161 attacks recorded between 2007
and 2021, just 19 were affiliated with a specific terrorist group.
Algeria was the only MENA country to deteriorate in 2021.
Algeria recorded three attacks in 2021, an increase of one attack The overall impact of terrorism fell in Canada due to a decrease
when compared to 2020. Despite the marginal increase in in terror attacks between 2020 and 2021. Canada recorded one
attacks, eight deaths were recorded in 2021, the highest number terror attack in 2021, compared to the four recorded in 2020.
of terror-related deaths since 2018. The deadliest attack in Despite this decrease in attacks, Canada recorded four deaths in
Algeria in 2021 occurred when a roadside bomb killed five 2021, an increase compared with the three recorded for 2020
civilians and wounded three others travelling in a pick-up truck and the highest death toll in the country since 2018. The 2021
on a road in Tebessa. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) attack was a car ramming incident in which an assailant hit and
claimed responsibility. killed four civilians and injured another in Ontario. No group
claimed the attack however officials believed that the victims
Since 2007, Algeria has recorded approximately 400 terror were targeted because of their Islamic faith.
attacks and 870 deaths from terrorism. The majority of these
deaths were attributed to AQIM, accounting for 63 per cent. Canada’s GTI score has deteriorated over the last decade,
recording at least one terror attack every year since 2014. Since
2007, there have been 29 attacks in Canada, resulting in 27
North America deaths. Unaffiliated far-left anarchist groups have accounted for
over a third of attacks, followed by IS inspired groups which
TABLE 2.6 accounted for ten per cent. The most deaths have occurred as a
North America GTI score, rank and change in result of attacks by groups and individuals with links to the
score, 2011–2021 ‘incel’ (involuntarily celibate) internet subculture. An assailant
who claimed to be a member of the incel community was
Overall Overall Change Change responsible for the deadliest attack in Canada in the last decade,
Country
Score Rank 2011-2021 2020-2021 when he deliberately drove his vehicle into a crowd of civilians,
killing ten and injuring 14 others.10
United States 4.961 28 0.526 -0.576
Canada 3.882 48 2.488 -0.019
The average impact of terrorism score improved in the Russia There was an overall improvement in the impact of terrorism in
and Eurasia region, with all countries recording improvements, South America over the past year, with five countries improving
apart from Belarus, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which their score, four recording a deterioration and two recording no
recorded no change. The region recorded the highest change. Total deaths from terrorism fell by 41 per cent, from 157
improvement in the impact of terrorism globally. Overall the in 2020 to 92 in 2021. However, the overall level of terrorism
region recorded just one terrorist attack and two deaths in 2021, remains much higher than a decade ago, with Chile, Peru and
down from seven attacks and seven deaths in 2020. The number Argentina significantly increasing their levels of terrorism in
of people killed in terrorist attacks in the region has fallen every 2021, compared to 2011. In total, there have been 1,835 deaths
year for the past four years, and is down 99 per cent from the from terrorism in South America since 2007, the fourth lowest
peak of 317 deaths in 2010. Nine of the twelve countries in the total of any region.
region received scores of zero in 2021, meaning that they did
not register a terrorist attack in the past five years. Eight terrorist groups took responsibility for attacks in 2021,
with Mapuche extremists claiming 206 attacks, resulting in one
In 2019, Russia overtook Tajikistan to become the country most death. National Liberation Army (ELN) were the deadliest
affected by terrorism in the region. Even though Russia group in the region in 2021, claiming 35 attacks that killed 28
continued to improve, with the number of attacks falling by 83 people. Only two per cent or eight attacks remained unclaimed
per cent, and deaths from terrorism falling by 71 per cent in by any terrorist group, the lowest of any region in 2021.
2021 compared to 2020.
Colombia has the highest impact of terrorism in the region, a
Russia recorded the region’s only attack in 2021. The attack position it has held for the past decade, despite a minor
occurred when a gunman killed two civilians and wounded four improvement between 2011 and 2021. Deaths from terrorism
others after arguing with a security guard when the assailant declined from 151 in 2020 to 73 in 2021, with the number of
refused to put on a mask in a government building. Law incidents also declining, from 174 to 72. Of the deaths recorded
enforcement said that the gunman had planned this attack in in 2021, half were attributed to the ELN, with the Revolutionary
advance and believed the COVID-19 pandemic was a Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) responsible for the other half
conspiracy.11 No group had claimed responsibility for the attack. after break-away elements announcing a rearmament in 2019.12
Kazakhstan reported the largest improvement in its terrorism Despite continuing to record the highest level of terrorism in
score in the region in the past year. For the first time in the last the region, the number of people killed in Columbia is at the
decade, Kazakhstan recorded a GTI score of zero, meaning it lowest level since 2017. The peace agreement between the
has not had a terror attack or death in the last five years. government and FARC signed in late 2016 reduced terrorist
Between 2011 and 2016, Kazakhstan recorded 12 terror attacks attacks significantly, with only seven FARC attacks recorded that
and 26 fatalities, with 73 per cent of deaths being of law year. Attacks by the group increased every year until 2019, when
enforcement and military personnel. FARC committed 138 terrorist attacks in Columbia. Break-away
elements were not happy with the peace accord. After this peak
in 2019, FARC attacks have declined, with 31 incidents recorded
in 2021, a decrease of 41 attacks when compared to the year
prior. Despite this, deaths as a result of FARC attacks spiked in
Niger 7.856 8 4.027 0.441 Uganda had the largest deterioration in score in 2021, as a result
of three incidents resulting in four deaths and 40 people
Cameroon 7.432 11 4.247 -0.193
injured. This is the first year Uganda has recorded any terror
Mozambique 7.432 13 6.923 -0.399 attacks since 2015. IS was responsible for two incidents, while
Democratic Republic the Allied Democratic Forces claimed responsibility for the
6.733 17 0.935 0.713
of Congo
remaining incident. Uganda’s deadliest incident was when a
Chad 6.379 19 2.861 -0.281
suicide bomber killed two police officers in the Central region.
Kenya 6.166 20 0.388 -0.192 Another attack involving two suicide bombers took place near
Tanzania 4.530 36 3.351 -0.300 the parliament building three minutes later. A fourth person
Burundi 4.310 42 4.310 0.026 was killed and a total of 37 people were wounded across both
locations. IS claimed responsibility for both attacks, attributing
Uganda 4.271 43 -1.073 1.158
them to its Central African Province.
Ethiopia 4.106 45 -1.136 4.106
Benin 3.759 49 -0.978 -0.595 Somalia returned the highest GTI score in the region, being
Senegal 3.164 53 3.164 1.261 ranked as having the third highest impact from terrorism in the
Togo 1.580 70 -1.235 -0.527 world in 2021. Despite this, Somalia recorded an improvement
Rwanda 1.243 73 -2.701 -0.490
over the past year, with terrorism deaths falling from 341 in
2020 to 308 in 2021, a ten per cent decrease. The primary driver
South Africa 1.243 73 0.351 -0.490
of the fall in terrorist activity in Somalia was the reclaiming of
Mauritania 1.243 73 1.243 1.243
the capital Mogadishu and other territories held by Al-Shabaab
Angola 0.509 84 -3.389 -0.318 by US security and African Union peacekeeping forces. However,
Al-Shabaab continues to be the most prominent terror group in
Gabon 0.291 86 -2.648 -0.218
Somalia, with almost 90 per cent of deaths being as a result of
Botswana 0.291 86 0.291 -0.218
Al-Shabaab attacks in 2021. This is still considerably lower than
Republic of Congo 0.000 93 0.000 0.000 during the peak of the group’s activity in 2017, when over 1,461
Côte d’Ivoire 0.000 93 -4.610 -2.464 deaths were attributed to them.
Djibouti 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
Central African Republic was the most improved country in the
Equatorial Guinea 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
region in 2021, returning a GTI score of zero for the first time.
Eritrea 0.000 93 -3.734 0.000
The country has not recorded a terrorist attack since 2016.
Eswatini 0.000 93 0.000 0.000 Mozambique recorded the largest decline in the number of
Gambia 0.000 93 0.000 0.000 terrorist attacks between 2020 and 2021. Deaths from terrorism
Ghana 0.000 93 0.000 0.000 declined by 82 per cent, from 507 in 2020 to 93 in 2021, and are
Guinea 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
now at their lowest level since 2017. The fall in deaths in
Mozambique was driven by a marked decrease in deaths
Guinea-Bissau 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
attributed to IS, with the group being responsible for only seven
Lesotho 0.000 93 -2.273 -2.028
attacks in 2021, compared to 22 in 2020.
Liberia 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
Malawi 0.000 93 0.000 -0.158
Namibia 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
Sierra Leone 0.000 93 -1.179 0.000
South Sudan 0.000 93 -0.227 0.000
Zambia 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
Zimbabwe 0.000 93 -1.201 0.000
Mauritius 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
Madagascar 0.000 93 0.000 0.000
Central African
0.000 93 0.000 0.000
Republic
corrupt.2 400
In the Sahel, over the last few years, the terrorism environment
has gone through several changes, as new groups emerged,
200
other merged, adapting to the local, regional and international
counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations. This gave
rise to what has been termed the ‘jihadisation of banditry’ as
criminal groups look to use religion to defend their criminal 0
actions.3 Some of the groups had chosen to join the al-Qaeda 2020 2021
franchise or the Islamic State franchise, which may also explain Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, UCDP, IEP calculations
the increase in violence. A closer look at the data also highlights
that most attacks occurred in border regions, where
governmental control is generally low and the military tends to
operate out of fortified bases.
FIGURE 3.2
Incidents and deaths from terrorism in the Sahel, 2007–2021
Both incidents and deaths increased by well over 1,000 per cent from 2007 to 2021.
Incidents Deaths
750
2,000
500
1,000
250
0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
MAURITANIA
MALI
Nouakchott
NIGER
SENEGAL CHAD
N'Djamena
GUINEA Niamey
Bamako Ouagadougou
NIGERIA
BURKINA FASO
CAMEROON
Figure 3.3 shows the distribution of terrorist deaths in the Sahel Mali in 2021 recorded its highest number of terrorist attacks and
between January 2007 and December 2021. Burkina Faso deaths since 2011. Attacks and deaths from terrorism in Mali
recorded 732 deaths from terrorism in 2021, its second highest increased by 56 per cent and 46 per cent respectively, when
number of deaths (scoring 8.270 on the GTI). Although the compared with the previous year. This is the largest year-to-year
majority of deaths were attributed either to unknown groups or increase since 2017, continuing an upward trend that began with
to unspecified Muslim extremists, it is suspected that these the 2015 declaration of a state of emergency in the wake of the
attacks could be the work of either ISWA or Boko Haram who Radisson Blu Hotel attack in Bamako. This is possibly why
were active in the country in 2021. There were 17 deaths Burkina Faso and Mali are the epicentres of the Sahel crisis, in
attributed to Boko Haram and 349 attributed to ISWA in 2021. It part because groups such as JNIM and ISWA solidified their
is therefore unsurprising that Burkina Faso recorded the largest presence in the region.
deterioration in peacefulness on the 2021 Global Peace Index
(GPI), falling 13 places.
FIGURE 3.4
Positive feedback loops supporting terrorist organisations
This diagram shows the nodes and linkages of a terrorist support system.
Density of
Recruitment Influence of Impact of
Terrorist
of Terrorists Network Attacks
Network
Feedback loops
Negative Media
Recruitment
Perception of Reports Funding
Countries Media
Motivation
ISGS
al Muwaqqin
al Murabitoun (2012-13)
(2013-17
ISWA
JNIM (2017-)
time, as their influence wane or change, individuals leave to including a greater targeting of civilian populations, possibly, as
form their own groups. under the ISWA model combatants are given the right to do as
they pleased with the spoils that they get from an attack.29 Thus,
TERRORIST TACTICS: ALLIANCE with this in mind it was unsurprising that ISWA overtook Boko
FORMATION: PASTORALIST POPULISM Haram as the most active terrorist group in Niger in 2021, with
VERSUS HIERARCHICAL SYSTEM the group being responsible for 23 attacks in the country with
an average casualty rate of 15.2 deaths per attack. Deaths
A close look at some of the actions of the key Jihadi groups in because of ISWA attacks accounted for 60 per cent of the total
the region leads one to see two different strategies of alliance casualties in Niger. A similar trend is visible in Nigeria where
formation. Studies suggest that JNIM uses pastoral populism to civilian casualties from ISWA attacks were at 84 per cent.
form alliances, whereas ISWA employs a more hierarchical
system.25 The pastoral populism model resonated with many FIGURE 3.6
Fulanis as it highlights and exploits Fulani grievances on taxes, Attacks targeting civilians in Burkina Faso and
corruption, injustice, lack of resources, and discrimination.26 Mali compared to the rest of the Sahel
JNIM is more likely to attack military targets whereas AQIM is
The difference between the two approaches is significant and
more likely to engage in attacking targets that are neither
impacts the level of violence as under pastoral populism, the military, government nor private property.
focus is on horizontal local alliance building involving less
Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM)
violence, as the group looks to persuade others to join, leading Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
them to not to claim sole responsibility for actions against Islamic State West Africa (ISWA)
civilians. This approach is a commonly used by al-Qaeda. It is
UXO and
worth noting that in 2010, bin Laden had warned Droukdel Mines
against toppling local governments before the jihadi movement Other/
had sufficient strength to establish and uphold an Islamic Unclear
State.27 AQIM has sought to embody the loose network Mortars
approach.28 The advantage is less violence, but it also means the
Incendiary
groups are working to undermine state institutions as they look devices and
to create their own sub-systems. Nevertheless, JNIM’s fire bombs
commitment to terrorise the population remains with the death Firearms
toll rising to 207 deaths in 2021, almost five times the amount
recorded for 2020. JNIM’s lethality seems to have increased as Explosives
in 2020 the rate was 3.9 deaths, but by 2021, it was 4.1 deaths. All other
Figure 3.6 shows the relative likelihood of AQIM and JNIM targets
attacking different targets. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL ATTACKS
The ISWA model involves greater acts of violence and brutality, Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, UCDP, IEP calculations
The international force and the training given to local security Kidnapping it is a common tactic used by terrorist
forces have produced mix results because the regions organisations. There has been a substantial increase in these
surrounding Burkina Faso’s borders with Niger and Mali have activities across the region most notably in Burkina Faso. Figure
experienced the most terror attacks, 72 per cent of all 2021 3.8 shows that terrorism is also associated with organised crime,
attacks in the Sahel. One explanation was the presence of the namely kidnapping, human trafficking, arms smuggling, and
international force in Mali, which has pushed the terrorists narcotics. There has been a substantial increase in kidnapping
across the border; a common method for groups to avoid in the Sahel (Figure 3.9), with 7 reported incidents in 2016 to 111
assaults, as these forces are limited in terms of where they may in 2019. Looking at AQIM, kidnapping has reportedly netted the
operate. group over US dollars 110 million since 2003.38
r=0.46
NGA
7
CMR
NER
6 TCD
MLI
CRIMINALITY
GIN BFA
5
SEN
MRT
4
FIGURE 3.9
Kidnapping in the Sahel, 2007–2020
Over the last decade, the number of kidnapping incidents in the Sahel has increased substantially.
750
NUMBER OF KIDNAPPINGS
500
250
FIGURE 3.10
Ecological threat in the Sahel
The majority of countries in the Sahel region receive an extremely high or high ETR score.
Number of countries scoring ETR score by country Frequency of catastrophic threat
extremely high or high by indicator
10 7
9 9
6
6
8 8
7 5
Extremely High
6
5 5 4 and High 4
4 4 Medium 3
3
3 6
2 2
1 1
1 1
0
Water Food Rapid Temperature Natural
Risk Risk Population Anomalies Disasters 0
Water Food Rapid
Growth Risk Risk Population
Growth
Source: IEP Ecological Threat Report
FIGURE 3.11
Sub-national ETR score and deaths from terrorism, Sahel, 2021
The higher the ETR score, the higher the ecological threat .
TOTAL DEATHS
0
40
80
ETR SCORE
120 2
4
160
5
100-200mm chiefly in June, July, and August. Niger, Nigeria, and Rapid Population Growth Score 0.292
Mali are watered by the Niger River, whereas Senegal and
Natural Disasters Score 0.279
Mauritania by the Senegal rivers. Water scarcity and access to
only dirty water have caused enormous damage and harm to the Catastrophic Score 0.261
local population. It is worth noting that fetching water is
Natural Disasters and Temperature
considered a woman’s job, often falling to young girls who must 0.257
Change Domain Score
work on average six km to fetch water (each container weights
Temperature Anomaly Score -0.068
about 15kg40). The walk is arduous and dangerous, making girls
vulnerable to abduction and sexual violence.41 Source: IEP
FIGURE 3.12
Terrorist attacks in the Sahel, 2021
Terrorist incidents tend to occur near waterways and routes.
Food insecurity refers to a situation when people do not among the ten countries with the highest levels of
have secure access to safe and nutritious food that they terrorism in the region.
need for normal growth and development. Sub-Saharan
Ten per cent or more of young males suffer from very high
Africa as a region with very high rates of undernourishment,
levels of thinness in eight of the ten countries in the Sahel.
Figure 3.13 shows thinness by sex in the region. According to
this, males tend to have higher rates of thinness in the The connection between thinness, undernourishment and
region. conflict is an under-researched area with limited available
data. Analysing these relationships could be important to
In 14 of the 44 sub-Saharan African countries covered in the
better understand how malnourishment contributes to
GPI, more than ten per cent of young males suffer from very
broader conflict in society, particularly among its young
high levels of thinness. Seven of these are among the ten
men.
least peaceful countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and five are
FIGURE 3.13
Thinness in Africa by Sex, 2016
In sub-Saharan Africa, thinness in males in some countries is three times as prevalent when compared to females in the
5-19 age bracket.
Figure 3.15 shows the levels of Positive Peace in the Sahel. The High Levels of Corruption
Sahel scores lower than the global average across all eight There are many examples as to the link between corruption and
Pillars of Peace. Levels of Positive Peace have also remained sustained conflict. Notably, the Sahelian countries’ security
consistent with only moderate improvements and deteriorations services have faced countless allegations of corrupt practices,
since 2009. The Sahel lags behind the global average the most in which not only emphasises low confidence in their abilities, but
High Levels of Human Capital, Acceptance of the Rights of emphasise a strong possibility that defence aid would be
Others, Equitable Distribution of Resources and Sound Business wasted. The situation is made worse by the fact that Mali, Niger,
Environment. Burkina Faso and Nigeria have adopted a doctrine that
identifies corruption as a strategic threat.54
Weaknesses in these pillars affect the regions’ ability to mitigate
the risks it faces. The remainder of this section highlights some Low Levels of Human Capital
of the challenges these present. A skilled human capital base reflects the extent to which
societies educate citizens and promote the development of
Well-Functioning Government knowledge, thereby improving economic productivity, care for
Across the region, states (systems) are very fragile, which the young, political participation and social capital. These are
creates a space for non-state actors to come and look to provide absent in the Sahel which mean that individuals need to look
for ways to support themselves and their families.
BOX 3.3
Positive Peace
4
PPI SCORE
1
Free Flow of Well-functioning High Levels Acceptance Equitable Good Low Levels of Sound
Information Government of Human of the Rights Distribution Relations with Corruption Business
Capital of Others of Resources Neighbours Environment
DIFFERENCE WITH
WORLD AVERAGE
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
Free Flow of Well-functioning High Levels Acceptance Equitable Good Low Levels of Sound
Information Government of Human of the Rights Distribution Relations with Corruption Business
Capital of Others of Resources Neighbours Environment
Equitable Distribution of Resources and Sound Business "Ongoing violence has taken
Environment
Peaceful countries tend to ensure equity in access to resources
a large toll on the civilian
such as education, health, and to a lesser extent, equity in population, leading to
income distribution. Moreover, Sahelian countries’ business
widespread displacement,
disruption of agricultural
environment is easily affected by climate change and by global
economic trends. For example, the Sahelian countries rely
heavily on livestock and agricultural markets, which are easily production, livelihoods
affected by ecological changes. Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and to
a lesser degree, Niger have also made great strands in
and cross-border trade,
developing their oil and/or minerals but these are impacted by and restricted affected
world market’s unpredictability resultant in highly volatile populations from accessing
basic services."
economic growth impacting development goals.
1,200
Incidents Boko Haram and ISWA have sought to exploit existing fragilities
Deaths by taking control of large areas of territory around Lake Chad.
1,000
The groups have also aligned with local communal conflicts and
their leaders to gain recruits by siding on divisions between
800
ethnic groups, such as the Fulani ethnic groups in Nigeria, as
well as the long-standing farmer-herder violence over water and
600
grazing areas.67
400
The deteriorating environmental conditions in the Lake Chad
Region and associated disruption to agricultural production,
200
and widespread poverty have enabled the spread of Boko
Haram and ISWA across the region.68 Both groups have
0 positioned themselves as alternative service providers and
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2020
facilitated recruitment by offering employment to those whose
Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, IEP calculations livelihoods have been impacted by recurring ecological threats,
particularly youths, and consequently been able to expand their
influence.69 In particular, ISWA has reportedly provided basic
2,500
2,000
Incidents
Deaths
1,500
1,000
500
0
2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
services and law enforcement in areas under its control, thereby CONCLUSION
building ties with local communities.70
Within the Sahel, there is a nexus between systemic failures,
Regional security forces have often struggled to contain the violent conflict, resource degradation, and pervasive insecurity.
militias and regain territory taken by Boko Haram and ISWA. In The countries suffering from the worst ecological degradation
2014, the African Union authorised a Multi-National Joint Task are also among the most violent because people lack basic
Force (MNJTF) comprising of soldiers from Benin, Cameroon, security.
Chad and Niger to assist the Nigerian government in attacking
territory held by Boko Haram. The United States has also It is unlikely that the current actions taken by the local
provided military capacity-building assistance for national governments and the international community will be enough
security forces and logistics and advisory support for the to reverse the vicious cycles of conflict, insecurity and resource
MNJTF.71 However, governments in the Lake Chad Basin region degradation in the Sahel. Particularly as it seems that local and
face competing security priorities. For instance, in Cameroon, regional terrorist actors are adapting their tactics, increasing
personnel have redeployed from fighting ISWA in the north to their activities and the lethality of their campaigns, as they look
the west of the country following the outbreak of a separate to exploit political vacuums, which suggests, at least when it
secessionist conflict in 2017. More broadly, governance deficits, comes to JNIM a shift in tactics from terrorism to insurgency, as
lack of public trust and socio-economic fragilities across the the group looks to build alliances and create the condition for
Lake Chad Basin region may hinder lasting security gains. limited governance. ISWA on the other hand seems wedded to
engage in terrorism, specifically using violence, fear, publicity,
Ongoing violence has taken a large toll on the civilian and the targeting of civilians to spread its message and impose
population, leading to widespread displacement, disruption of its will on the public.
agricultural production, livelihoods and cross-border trade, and
restricted affected populations from accessing basic services.72 Addressing the multiple crises in the region calls for a systemic
As of 2020, there were an estimated 2.7 million IDPs in the Lake approach, whereby key elements within the system are
Chad Basin.73 The majority were in Nigeria, with an estimated identified and addressed as standalone cases, which will create a
1.9 million IDPs in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe state.74 The better overall outcome. Put differently, it is more effective to
administrative units of Borno, Yobe, Adamawa and Kano in have four projects with a forty percent success rate than one
Nigeria and Extrême-Nord in Cameroon have recorded the most with an eighty percent rate. One way to address the insecurity is
deaths from terrorism since 2007. In particular, the state of through a systematic approach that would encourage the
Borno in Nigeria has recorded the most terrorist activity of any development of Positive Peace, as moderate, local leaders are
subnational area in the Sahel, with 867 attacks and 6,581 deaths political entrepreneurs, which raises the prospect of working
from terrorism. The number of attacks peaked in 2019, but has through established institutions to address the needs of the
remained consistent in the last 18 months. people.
Figure 4.1 shows the average lethality of terrorism attacks for Fatality rates of terrorist attacks by conflict
countries in conflict, countries with a minor conflict, and for type, 2020
countries not experiencing conflict. As the intensity of conflict Terrorist attacks in countries in conflict are six times deadlier
increases, so does the lethality of terrorist actions. Attacks in than in countries without conflict.
countries experiencing conflict are six times as lethal as in
countries not experiencing conflict, as shown in Figure 4.2.
Countries in war
The data reveals that not only has the lethality of individual 2.0 Countries without conflict
terrorist attacks increased as the conflict intensifies, but the Countries with minor conflicts
FATALITIES PER ATTACK
In many conflict environments, violence is not only aimed at the Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, UCDP, IEP calculations
government but rather takes place between extremists who look
to dominate a disputed territory. This competition influences a
r=0.51
BATTLE RELATED DEATHS PER YEAR (LOG)
12.5
SYR AFG
ETH IRQ
LKA SOM
AGO NGA TUR IND
SDN DZA
10.0 UGA RWA PHL PAK
SLE BDI TCD UKR NPL COL LBY
AZE MMR
HRV TJK MOZ ISR
SLV SSD PER MLI
GEO IDN NER EGY
7.5 GNB SEN CMP
CAF IRN LBN THA
MDA UZB BFA
DJI NIC GTM BGD
MAR MEX KEN
5.0 ROU ERI LAO GBR
PAN VEN PRY TUN
COM MKD ESP
JOR MYS
MRT TZA CHN
0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
TERRORIST ATTACKS PER YEAR (LOG)
Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, UCDP, IEP calculations
group’s strategy and tactics, as some would choose to use FIGURE 4.4
terrorist tactics against both the opposing group, but also Proximity of terrorist attacks from armed conflict
against citizens deemed to be aligned with the other group. This ADVA
80 per cent of terrorist incidents occur within 50 km of violent
approach was promoted by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his conflict.
group, al-Tawhid wa al-Jihad (Monotheism and Jihad), as he was
looking to bring about a civil war in Iraq. Groups such as the 100%
Islamic State – Sinai Province, for example, would look to attack
PERCENT OF ATTACKS
80%
both military and civilians targets to provoke overreaction by
the state in the hope of aligning the civilian population with
60% 50km
them.3 In areas where a group may have more sympathisers, it
may want to focus its attacks against state institutions or the 40%
military and police and less against civilians as it looks to win
over the population. 20%
This was the case in Syria. The conflict began in Hama with a 0%
1km 10km 100km 1,000km 10,000km
popular demonstration that cascaded into one of the worst
DISTANCE TO CONFLICT (LOG)
conflicts in modern history. Attempts by the regime to crush the
demonstration with tanks galvanized opponents of the regime, Source: Dargonfly TerrorismTracker, UCDP, IEP calculations
Geographically, Figure 4.4 shows that 80 per cent of all terrorist taking place."
attacks occur within 50 km of a conflict. Although 97 per cent of
terrorist deaths are in countries in conflict, there are many
countries where not all of the country is classified as being in a
conflict.
In a conflict environment, the distinction between terrorism and an insurgent group that is carrying out a campaign in more than
insurgency is at times difficult to perceive. Both insurgents and one country.
terrorists look to bring about political change through violence.
The patterns of behaviour and conflict engagement displayed by
A terrorist group and an insurgent group can be distinguished insurgent groups are complex. Figure 4.5 shows that terrorist
on the following criteria:5 groups and insurgent groups frequently target the police and
the military. This reflects the use of terrorism as a tactic, with
• An insurgent group is involved in conflicts with more than the police and the military considered as the main ‘enemy
1,000 casualties and where more than 100 members of the forces’. In the Sahel, the group Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal
group itself have died. Muslimin (JNIM) is more likely to attack military targets to
achieve its goals, as it wants to impose its rule over the
• Insurgent groups look to hold and seize territory, were they population and therefore does not want to alienate the local
can and do exercise control over a population. They also population. Groups like al-Shabaab attack both civilian and
operate in the open as armed units, and they can engage in military targets, whereas Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA)
mass mobilisation.6 prefers targeting civilian and private businesses.
Three per cent of groups in the GTI could be classified as Figure 4.6 shows that insurgent groups are responsible for
insurgent groups; they are listed in Table 4.1. Except for nearly two-thirds of deaths from known groups. This occurs
al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and the Islamic State – Sinai Province, all despite the fact that insurgent groups represent only three per
other groups were involved in some form of armed conflict cent of all terrorist groups.
against state authorities.7
In Niger, in 2021, attacks caused on average 7.9 deaths per
Seven insurgent groups in Table 4.1 operate in the MENA or attack, compared to 3.8 in 2020. This is of particular concern
sub-Saharan Africa regions. Table 4.1 also shows the longevity of and highlights the growing sophistication and organisational
these groups. Notably, although many groups conduct activities capabilities of ISWA. In Burkina Faso, the lethality rate of JNIM
across multiple countries, they do not meet the criteria of an attacks in 2021 was almost 16 deaths per attack, compared with
insurgent group in multiple countries because of their limited four deaths per attack in 2020.
impact. Boko Haram is the only group that could be classified as
TABLE 4.1
Terrorist groups that could be classified as insurgent groups
Most insurgent groups have been operating since 2007 in the sub-Saharan Africa and MENA regions.
Taliban Afghanistan South Asia 2007 - 2021 Religious Islamic 2156 9473 11629
Islamic State (IS) Iraq MENA 2007 - 2021 Religious Islamic 390 8418 8808
sub-Saharan
Boko Haram Nigeria 2007 - 2021 Religious Islamic 1049 7401 8450
Africa
sub-Saharan
Al-Shabaab Somalia 2007 - 2021 Religious Islamic 1213 6649 7862
Africa
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
Pakistan South Asia 2007 - 2021 Religious Islamic 1037 3939 4976
(TTP)
Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) Iraq MENA 2007 - 2013 Religious Islamic 124 3691 3815
Islamic State - Sinai Province Egypt MENA 2013 - 2021 Religious Islamic 227 1490 1717
Terrorists or
non-state militia
Private citizens
16,765
and property
Other/Unclear
Insurgent groups
Businesses
0 20 40
PERCENTAGE
Terrorist
groups
TOTAL NUMBER
2,000
Insurgent
1,000 groups
4 8 12
0
Fatalities Incidents Injuries
Source: Dargonfly TerrorismTracker, UCDP, IEP calculations Source: Dragonfly TerrorismTracker, UCDP, IEP calculations
Figure 4.7 shows the number of years in which insurgent and resources, it reverted back to using more traditional terrorist
terrorist groups have committed at least one attack. On average, tactics. To escape the Nigerian military, it was forced to Boko
insurgencies are active for 11.8 years. In contrast, the majority of Haram was forced to seek refuge in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger,
terrorist groups are on average active for around 4 years. It bringing violence to those areas.
should be noted that a terrorist group could transition to an
insurgent group, or transition back to a terrorist group,
reflecting the tactics it uses. Boko Haram underlined this, as at
one point (2014-2015) the group was responsible for over 1,000
casualties per year, making it one of the most dangerous groups
in the world. During that time, the group was more capable of
challenging the Nigerian military, but with fewer members and
This section looks at the relationship between terrorism and TABLE 4.2
indicators from the Global Peace Index (GPI) and the Positive Correlations with terrorism in OECD countries
Peace Index (PPI) for OECD countries and the Rest of the World. and the Rest of the World
The aim is to identify different motivators between wealthier Political terror and the intensity of internal conflict are associated
counties and less wealthy countries. with terrorism in both OECD countries and the rest of the world.
Rest of the
There were 24 indicators that had statistically significant levels Index Indicator OECD
world
of correlation with terrorism in OECD countries, compared to 15
Youth not in Employment,
indicators for countries in the Rest of the World category. PPI 0.62 0.18
Education or Training (NEET)
Although some factors are the same, there are many distinct GPI Political Terror Scale 0.55 0.57
differences between the two groups for the factors that correlate GPI Safety & Security 0.54 0.45
significantly.
GPI Militarisation 0.53 0.24
GPI Access to Small Arms 0.53 0.27
Some of the indicators in Table 4.2 are linked conceptually to
violence and are included in the GPI, such as the Militarisation, GPI Internal Peace 0.52 0.61
Internal Peace and Safety and Security domains. These Exclusion by Socio-economic
PPI 0.50 0.23
Group
indicators correlate with the level of terrorist activity.
PPI Acceptance of the Rights of Others 0.49 0.43
GPI Intensity of Internal Conflict 0.47 0.55
Other indicators that correlate across the OECD and the Rest of
the World are the Political Terror Scale, Acceptance of the Rights GPI Nuclear and Heavy Weapons 0.47 0.21
of Others from the PPI, and the Attitudes domain from the PPI. PPI Attitudes 0.45 0.40
In all, there were only eight non-conflict indicators that GPI Violent Crime 0.44 0.27
overlapped between the two groups. This is a very small group
GPI External Peace 0.44 0.35
of overlapping indicators, compared to statistically significant
PPI Freedom of the Press 0.42 0.16
indicators that were unique to each group.
Law to Support Equal Treatment of
PPI 0.40 0.27
Population Segments
It highlights that the drivers of terrorism are different between GPI Deaths from External Conflict 0.40 0.15
OECD countries and the Rest of the World. As such, different
PPI Equality of Opportunity 0.40 0.20
approaches are needed, depending on the context of a particular
PPI Free Flow of Information 0.39 0.28
country.
GPI Military Expenditure (% GDP) 0.39 0.19
The set of indicators shown in Table 4.2 is statistically linked to GPI UN Peacekeeping Funding 0.39 0.06
terrorism. Statistically significant correlations above 0.3 are GPI Perceptions of Criminality 0.38 0.04
shown. PPI Equitable Distribution of Resources 0.38 0.30
GPI Refugees and IDPs 0.37 0.29
Advanced Economies (OECD):
GPI Violent Demonstrations 0.37 0.40
The indicator with the highest level of statistical significance PPI Access to Public Services 0.35 0.32
was Youth not in employment, education or training. PPI Group Grievance 0.35 0.50
Interestingly, this indicator did not correlate significantly with PPI Individuals Using the Internet 0.34 0.28
the Rest of the World grouping. The lack of youth opportunity
PPI Gender Inequality 0.34 0.32
can fuel disenchantment that a terrorist group can exploit in its
PPI Quality of Information 0.33 0.13
recruitment campaigns.8 An active youth cohort, especially
through employment, is less likely to be persuaded to resort to PPI Factionalised Elites 0.32 0.38
acts of violence, particularly if political grievances are PPI High Levels of Human Capital 0.31 0.22
considered.9 However, addressing business development is a
GPI Ongoing Conflict 0.31 0.68
holistic undertaking and needs to be approached from many
GPI Deaths from Internal Conflict 0.29 0.77
directions.
PPI PPI Overall Score 0.27 0.35
Interestingly, many of the indicators with the highest statistical GPI Political Instability 0.22 0.35
significance could be classified as indicators of societal equity. GPI Internal Conflict 0.21 0.67
These include Acceptance of the Rights of Others, exclusion by
PPI Low Levels of Corruption 0.20 0.34
socio-economic group, equality of opportunity, and law to
PPI Rule of Law 0.18 0.30
support equal treatment of population segments.
PPI Institutions Domain 0.10 0.30
The other interesting grouping of indicators revolve around PPI External Intervention 0.10 0.31
political terror, access to small arms and militarisation. These GPI Neighbouring Countries Relations -0.06 0.32
indicate that the societies that are accustomed to violence more
DISRUPTING TERRORIST
GROUPS AND NETWORKS
It is important to understand some of the motivations behind High-impact attacks and the availability of funding to carry out
why some individuals join terrorist groups. For example, relative such attacks may also boost the number of non-affiliated
deprivation and alienation serve as the pull and push factors for sympathisers. These individuals support the network financially
some recruitment. IS looked to identify vulnerable young by promoting its agenda. This funding loop is represented with
European men and women, primarily ones feeling angry, yellow arrows in the figure. Similarly, the motivation and
resentful and alienated, and it promised them a new life and recruitment feedback loops contribute to the maintenance and
new opportunities. In the Sahel, different strategies were used. cohesion of the network.
For example, one of Boko Haram’s strategies was to offer
between US$600 – US$800 each month to those that joined its Disrupting one particular node could break a loop and seriously
ranks, whereas those lucky enough to get a job could at best hamper part of the network’s operations. The node
earn US$72 a month.12 corresponding to the influence of the network is the only node
to participate in all loops. As such, it is potentially the most
Some groups such as IS also engage in incredible brutality, as a critical for actions aimed at dismantling networks. However, the
way to keep individuals within their ranks, as members know most successful actions will look at the overall system and
that attempts at leaving would be severely punished.13 The attack it systemically.
ability to leave becomes even more challenging when the group
controls an area and operates away from urban centres. Attempts to dismantle a network would need to recognise why
the network has influence with potential recruits, sympathisers
The factors underpinning the workings of a terrorist group and funders. For instance, potential recruits could be youth
could be represented as nodes in a network, and the linkages without proper employment who do not feel represented in
represent the influence that each node has on the next. The their societies. Joining a radical group could provide these
nodes and the linkages between them form feedback loops youths with a sense of engagement and identity. It is then
allowing the group to operate and thrive, as shown in Figure critical to assess the reason for this perceived lack of
4.8. Disrupting these links can limit the group’s efficacy and lead representation, and what could be done through institutions
its members to abandon it. and encoded norms of a society to improve representativeness.14
Density of
Recruitment Influence of Impact of
Terrorist
of Terrorists Network Attacks
Network
Feedback loops
Negative Media
Recruitment
Perception of Reports Funding
Countries Media
Motivation
THE LIFE SPAN OF A TERRORISM GROUP of recruitment and funding. This may also affect the way they
use violence, extremist groups who are unable to rely on
Figure 4.9 shows there is a sharp decline in the number of active external sources of support and must rely on the local
terrorist groups after the initial year of operation. For example, population focus their attacks on military, police, and
in 2007 there were 139 active terrorist groups. Of those, just 73 government entities as they look to create instability. Others
were active a year later, and by 2021, just 29 were active. There may choose to turn to mass casualty attacks on groups not
is a similar pattern if 2015 is used as the base year, with 84 aligned with them as a way to publicise their agenda, their
active groups diminishing to 46 in 2018, and down to 32 by growing sophistication, and reach as seen for example with
2021. Al-Shabaab’s Westgate Shopping Centre attack (2013) and the
2015 Garissa University attack.
The terrorist groups that tend to survive for more than ten years
seem to have entrenched support networks, specifically in terms
FIGURE 4.9
Terrorist group survival, 2007–2021
Most terrorist groups disband, merge with other groups or are dismantled within a year of being formed.
NUMBER OF TERRORIST GROUPS
100
ACTIVE IN 2007
ACTIVE IN 2015
50
Recruitment
Method or
Mediums Motivation
Source: IEP
More generally, the CPN(M) and the FARC are not the only Late in 2021, the US recognised the legitimacy of the agreement
groups that have transitioned into governments or political and lifted its designation of the FARC as a terrorist group
parties. Over the years, other groups such as the Farabundo because “it no longer existed as a unified organisation that
Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) of El Salvador have engages in terrorism or terrorist activity or has the capability or
also entered into the political process. intent to do so”. The move would allow for greater flexibility in
the US participating in aid and developments projects that
REVOLUTIONARY ARMED FORCES OF involve former fighters. For example, efforts to remove
COLOMBIA (FARC) landmines or replace illegal coca leaf crops.28
Founded in 1964 by Manuel Marulanda and Jacobo Arenas, the However, while the majority of the FARC have disarmed and
FARC was the military wing of the Colombian Communist Party. demobilised, not all members agreed, leading to the splintering
At the time, the FARC claimed to represent the interests of and creation of two dissident rebel groups, the Revolutionary
Colombia’s rural population. Drawing influence from Marxism, Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP) and
it claimed it was committed to redistributing wealth. It also Segunda Marquetalia. These groups have both been designated
opposed the influence of foreign multinational corporations. The terrorist organisations by the US. The commander of the latter
conflict between the FARC, which by 2001 had around 17,000 group, Hernán Velásquez, has been reportedly killed in
combatants, and successive Colombian governments claimed the Venezuela in an attack carried out by mercenaries seeking to
lives of over 220,000 people. It also uprooted more than five cash in on rewards for his capture or death.29,30
million people from their homes.
Although the FARC is no longer regarded as a terrorist group,
The FARC conducted a series of kidnappings, assassinations, there are significant questions about the 2016 peace deal. In
and bombings for several decades. The group also had links to 2020, it was reported that only 4 per cent of the accord’s rural
drug trafficking, which brought in millions of dollars of revenue. reform measures had been completed.31 Likewise, the peace deal
included the eradication of coca crops on which many people
Recruitment was done in part under duress and in part through depend for their livelihoods. The eradication of crops had
In November 2001, the Maoists initiated a military campaign Concerns over the potential of conflict led the Maoists to work
against military, police, and government facilities across the with the Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (Morcha), an
country. They also attacked bridges and other critical alliance of five Madhes-based parties. They formed a
infrastructure, claiming that foreign imperialists were building government in August 2011. The return of the Maoists to power
them. They also targeted government buildings and banks.37 It provided some stability, but more importantly, it facilitated an
was this campaign that led the United States to designate them agreement over what to do with the Maoist combatants. The
a Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity under Executive November 1 agreement gave the Maoist combatants a choice to
Order 13224, and as a "terrorist organization" from the Terrorist either integrate into the national army or take voluntary
Exclusion List (TEL) under the Immigration and Nationality Act retirement from the PLA with a cash package. Over 6,500
(INA). Nevertheless, the increased insecurity led Prime Minister combatants opted to join the newly constituted Nepalese Army.42
Deuba to declare a state of emergency and to call on the Royal
Nepalese Army (RNA) to support the government against the In 2012, Mohan Baidya, an important Maoist leader, chose to
Maoists. The RNA had stayed out of the conflict, claiming it was break away from the UCPN-M and created the Communist Party
an internal matter for the police. of Nepal (Revolutionary Maoist) (CPN-RM). This faction,
popularly known as the ‘dash Maoists’, remained interested in
Technology inspires copy-cat terrorism Today, emerging technologies are accessible to extremists
who are actively following hackerspaces. Students used
Terrorists elicit copy-cat terrorism responses worldwide. A 3D printing technology to produce a drone they coupled
string of Salafi-Jihadist attacks on soft targets that with an Android phone’s navigation system, allowing it to
terrorised entire cities began with the attack in Nice on fly without an expensive navigation system and shared
June 2016, which influenced the Berlin Christmas market lessons learned. Hobbyists can turn to Amazon.AMU.Com
attack in December 2016 and the Barcelona attack in for multiple free technologies.
August 2017. In March 2015, another string of far-right
terrorist attacks began with the attacks on two mosques in In 2020, a German right-wing terrorist in Halle used online
Christchurch. The perpetrator killed 51 people while manuals and a 3D printer to print parts of his gun,
livestreaming his deadly attack through Facebook Live. spending $50 dollars. The attempt failed but his goal was
During the first 24 hours after the attack, Facebook to demonstrate the viability of improvised weapons.
removed 1.5 million copies of the video. It inspired
copy-cat attacks in El Paso, Poway, Baerum, Oslo and Halle. Autonomous vehicles
Terrorists now follow a similar copycat modus operandi: 1)
post a manifesto online; 2) attack a target group while In the future autonomous vehicles could lead to multiple
live-streaming on the internet, and 3) post best practices, malicious attack scenarios including replicating the deadly
lessons learned and calls for imitation. vehicular terrorist attacks conducted from 2016-2017 in
Barcelona, Berlin, London, New York, Nice, and Stockholm.
Funding hate online In 2011, Ansar al-Islam built a driverless car with remote
controlled machine guns. In 2016, ISIL turned a car into a
Hate is profitable. White supremacist groups raise funds by remote-controlled weapon with a heating unit to simulate
monetising hateful content. They “industrialise” their life.23
fundraising campaigns by soliciting for cryptocurrencies.
A FATFMENA report on money laundering claimed that Drones
terrorists financed themselves using such platforms as
Facebook, YouTube, GoFundMe, Telegram and In 2011, an Al Qaeda sympathiser attempted to use a
WhatsApp.20 A UK Times investigation learned that grenade-laden remote-controlled plane to bomb the US
extremists – ISIL and Combat 18 - earned thousands per Capitol. Since 2016, ISIL has been using drones to carry
month with big-brand advertising on their most popular out intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
videos, including well-known companies - Mercedes Benz missions. ISIL conducted attacks with drones carrying
and Waitrose.21 explosives,24 and formed an “Unmanned Aircraft of the
Mujahedeen” unit.25 It pinned down Iraqi security forces
during one 24-hour period in Syria executing 70 drone
missions.26
Why Morocco’s
Counterterrorism Evolution
Matters to Africa
CESAR A. VELASQUEZ,
PROGRAMME OFFICE FOR COUNTER-TERRORISM
AND TRAINING IN AFRICA,
UNITED NATIONS OFFICE OF COUNTER-TERRORISM (UNOCT)
Following the 2003 Casablanca attacks, Morocco began a be a hard-to-police Casablanca district with high
profound transformation of the Kingdom’s unemployment and illiteracy rates4. Within weeks terrorists
counterterrorism strategy. In the immediate aftermath, recruited a group of young men and introduced them to
legislators and policymakers confronted national security suicide terrorism training material. Once indoctrinated,
challenges, including enhancing security for potential recruits undertook physical conditioning training in the
vulnerable targets and addressing conditions conducive to proximity of Karian Toma, produced a small batch of
terrorism and violent extremism. This article outlines some explosives and tested them at a cemetery before
of Morocco’s noteworthy changes in the country’s embarking on large-scale production5.
counterterrorism approach since 2003 and measures
results against the current African terrorism landscape. In With May 16 in sight, the terrorists prepared for the attacks
addition, it details how the newly opened United Nations by watching videos evocative of the awaited afterlife.
Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) programme office for Having prayed and promised to meet again in paradise,
counterterrorism and training in Rabat will aid in they began the final stage of the operation.6
developing, strengthening and advancing law
enforcement and whole-of-society counterterrorism A TURNING POINT
responses for the African continent.
In the lead-up to the May 16 attacks, Morocco had already
THE ATTACKS experienced a sharp increase in terrorist operations
against civilians, however, most of those operations did
On May 16, 2003, in Casablanca, Morocco, 12 members of not involve explosives or suicide terrorists7. The
al-Salafiya al-Jihadiya, a Salafi-jihadi terrorist organisation Casablanca attacks set in motion a new wave of
affiliated with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), internationally-inspired domestic terrorism that would be
attacked the Farah Hotel, the Jewish Community Centre, a eventually attested by the 2007 and 2015 Casablanca
Jewish restaurant, a Jewish cemetery, and a Spanish social attacks; the 2011 attacks in Marrakech as well as the 2018
club. The selection of targets suggested that terrorists attacks in Imlil.
wanted to destroy the symbols of Morocco’s religious
tolerance and modernity1. The attacks left 45 people dead, The 2003 Casablanca—and subsequent—attacks
including 12 suicide terrorists, and wounded 1002. prompted the Moroccan government to enhance its
Although considered small and unsophisticated compared counterterrorism policies to address changing terrorist
to other international terrorist operations, the five tactics, accelerated operational tempo and increased
bombings left an indelible mark on the country’s psyche. lethality. Law 03.03, passed two weeks after the 2003
The attacks marked the introduction of suicide terrorism in attacks, became the first of a series of legislative reforms
Morocco, represented the expansion of the Al-Qaeda enhancing Morocco’s legal counterterrorism framework8.
terrorist threat to Morocco, and the end of the belief that This law expanded the definition of terrorism to include
the country was immune to the political trends of the Arab incitement. It introduced sentencings in line with the
Middle East because of its Sunni heritage and open classification of terrorism as a major crime for active
approach to Islam3. participation in terrorist related activities, including a
minimum of a 10-year sentence. In addition, Law 03.03
It is believed that the planning for the attacks began in expanded the duration of police custody in cases of
November 2002 in the Karian Toma district, considered to terrorism and enhanced both intelligence-gathering and
Sub-Saharan Africa at a
Crossroad
DR ISAAC KFIR, RESEARCH FELLOW, IEP
93 Bulgaria 0 0 93 Oman 0 0
93 Botswana 0 0 93 Portugal 0 0
93 Guyana 0 0
1 Afghanistan 26/8/21 Kabul Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISKP) 170 Explosives
Democratic Republic
40 15/2/21 Nord-Kivu Islamic State (IS) 18 Firearms
of the Congo
given year
Total number of fatalities 3
à total number of injuries caused by terrorists in a
given year Total number of injuries 0.5
Each of the factors is weighted between zero and three, and a TABLE C.2
five year weighted average is applied in a bid to reflect the
Hypothetical country terrorist
latent psychological effect of terrorist acts over time. The
attacks in a given year
weightings shown in Table C.1 was determined by consultation
with the GPI Expert Panel.
Number of
Calculated
Dimension Weight incidents for the
raw score
The greatest weighting is attributed to a fatality. given year
To assign a score to a country each incident is rated according Total number of injuries 0.5 53 26.5
to the four measures. The measures are then multiplied by their
weighting factor and aggregated. This is done for all incidents Total number of hostages 0.5 20 10
and then all incidents for each country are aggregated to give
Total raw score 166.5
the country score. To illustrate, Table C.2 depicts a hypothetical
country’s record for a given year.
To account for the after effects of trauma that terrorist attacks 2 0.5 0.78 13 6 1020.02
have on a society, the GTI takes into consideration the events of
previous years as having a bearing on a country’s current score. 3 1 2.17 14 6.5 1817.8
For instance, the scale of the 2011 terrorist attacks in Norway
4 1.5 4.65 15 7 3238.95
will continue to have a psychological impact on the population
for many years to come. To account for the lingering effects of 5 2 9.07 16 7.5 5770.53
terrorism, the prior four years are also included in the scoring
with a decreasing weight each year. Table C.3 highlights the 6 2.5 16.94 17 8 10280.19
weights used for each year.
7 3 30.95 18 8.5 18313.55
TABLE C.3
8 3.5 55.92 19 9 32623.89
Time weighting of historical scores
9 4 100.4 20 9.5 58115.81
Previous year 8 26
This method produces the set of bands used in the GTI listed in
table C.4.
SECTION 1: RESULTS
1 United Nations Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive 27 Institute for Economics and Peace. (2021). Global Peace Index 2021., https://
Directorate (CTED) “The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on terrorism, www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/GPI-2021-web-1.pdf
counter-terrorism and countering violent extremism” Accessed February 21, 28 Department of Defense Office of Inspector General. “Lead Inspector General
2022. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/cted_covid19_ for Operation Inherent Resolve Quarterly Report to the United State.”
paper_dec_2021.pdf. Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.dodig.mil/reports.html/
2 “The United States Released the 2020 Country Report on Terrorism - U.S. Article/2833944/lead-inspector-general-for-operation-inherent-resolve-
Embassy in Mozambique.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://mz.usembassy. quarterly-report-to-the-u/.
gov/the-united-states-released-the-2020-country-report-on-terrorism/. 29 “Boko Haram’s Leader Is Dead: What Are the Humanitarian and Security
3 United Nations Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Implications?” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.csis.org/analysis/
Directorate (CTED) “The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on terrorism, boko-harams-leader-dead-what-are-humanitarian-and-security-implications.
counter-terrorism and countering violent extremism” Accessed February 21, 30 Ibid.
2022. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/cted_covid19_ 31 Council on Foreign Relations. “Nigerian Terrorist Abubakar Shekau: Dead or
paper_dec_2021.pdf. Alive—and Does It Matter?” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.cfr.org/
4 Commission for Countering Extremism “COVID-19: How Hateful Extremists blog/nigerian-terrorist-abubakar-shekau-dead-or-alive-and-does-it-matter.
Are Exploiting the Pandemic,” Accessed February 21, 2022, https://assets. 32 “Examining Extremism: Jama’at Nasr al-Islam Wal Muslimin.” Accessed
publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ February 21, 2022. https://www.csis.org/blogs/examining-extremism/
data/file/906724/CCE_Briefing_Note_001.pdf. examining-extremism-jamaat-nasr-al-islam-wal-muslimin.
5 “FSI | CISAC | MAPPINGMILITANTS CISAC - MMP: Islamic State.” Accessed 33 “French Forces Leave Mali’s Timbuktu after Nearly Nine Years | News | Al
February 21, 2022. https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/ Jazeera.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/
islamic-state#text_block_18356. news/2021/12/15/french-forces-leave-malis-timbuktu-after-nearly-9-years.
6 Johnston, Patrick B., Jacob N. Shapiro, Howard J. Shatz, Benjamin Bahney, 34 “Murder in Tillabery: Calming Niger’s Emerging Communal Crisis | Crisis
Danielle F. Jung, Patrick Ryan, and Jonathan Wallace. “Foundations of the Group.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/
Islamic State: Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq, 2005–2010.” RAND niger/b172-murder-tillabery-calming-nigers-emerging-communal-crisis.
Corporation, May 18, 2016. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/
RR1192.html. “Islamist Militancy in Pakistan | Global Conflict Tracker.” Accessed February 21,
7 “Islamic State.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.nationalsecurity.gov. 2022. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/islamist-militancy-
au/what-australia-is-doing/terrorist-organisations/listed-terrorist- pakistan.
organisations/islamic-state.
8 Parliament House, Canberra. “The Fall of the ISIS ‘Caliphate.’” Text. Australia.
Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/
Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook46p/
ISISCaliphate.
9 “Explainer: The Islamic State in 2021 | Wilson Center.” Accessed February 21,
2022. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/explainer-islamic-state-2021.
10 Council on Foreign Relations. “What Is the Taliban?” Accessed February 21,
2022. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/taliban-afghanistan.
11 Ibid.
12 “African Jihadi Groups Unite and Pledge Allegiance to Al-Qaeda.” Accessed
February 21, 2022. https://www.newsweek.com/al-qaeda-groups-unite-
sahel-563351.
13 “Examining Extremism: Jama’at Nasr al-Islam Wal Muslimin.” Accessed
SECTION 2: TRENDS
February 21, 2022. https://www.csis.org/blogs/examining-extremism/
examining-extremism-jamaat-nasr-al-islam-wal-muslimin. 1 Defined as countries that had at least one conflict that led to 25 or more
14 “Jama’at Nasr al-Islam Wal Muslimin (JNIM) | Center for Strategic and battle-related deaths.
International Studies.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.csis.org/ 2 “Mexico - United States Department of State.” Accessed February 21, 2022.
programs/past-projects/transnational-threats-project/terrorism- https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2020/mexico/.
backgrounders/jamaat-nasr-al-islam. 3 “Etellekt | Análisis de Riesgos • Comunicación • Políticas Públicas.” Accessed
15 1“Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam Wal-Muslimin.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https:// February 21, 2022. https://www.etellekt.com/informe-de-violencia-politica-en-
www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/what-australia-is-doing/terrorist-organisations/ mexico-2021-J21-etellekt.html.
listed-terrorist-organisations/jamaat-nusrat-al-islam-wal-muslimin. 4 Committee to Protect Journalists. “Committee to Protect Journalists –
16 “The End of the Operation Barkhane, New Perspectives on the Territory – Defending Journalists Worldwide.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://cpj.
Finabel.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://finabel.org/the-end-of-the- org/.
operation-barkhane-new-perspectives-on-the-territory/. 5 ACLED Cartel Violence, IEP calculations.
17 “The Evolving Taliban-ISK Rivalry | The Interpreter.” Accessed February 21, 6 “Sir David Amess: MP Murder Suspect Held under Terrorism Act - BBC News.”
2022. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/evolving-taliban-isk- Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58943184.
rivalry. 7 “Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi: IS Leader ‘dead after US Raid’ in Syria - BBC News.”
18 The Strategist. “The Taliban Are Losing the Fight against Islamic State,” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-
December 6, 2021. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taliban-are-losing- canada-50200339.
the-fight-against-islamic-state/. 8 “U.S. Report: ISIS Resilient in Iraq, Syria | Wilson Center.” Accessed February
19 “How Will the Taliban Deal With Other Islamic Extremist Groups? - Carnegie 21, 2022. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/us-report-isis-resilient-iraq-
Endowment for International Peace.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https:// syria.
carnegieendowment.org/2021/08/31/how-will-taliban-deal-with-other-islamic- 9 U.S Department of State “Country Reports on Terrorism 2020,” December
extremist-groups-pub-85239. 2021, 318.
20 “Trends in Terrorism: What’s on the Horizon in 2022? - Foreign Policy Research 10 “Canadian ‘incel’ Killer Found Guilty of Murder over Toronto van Attack |
Institute.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/12/ Toronto van Incident | The Guardian.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://
trends-in-terrorism-whats-on-the-horizon-in-2022/. www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/03/toronto-van-attack-guilty-murder.
21 openDemocracy. “The Deadly Legacy of 20 Years of US ‘War on Terror’ in 11 “Moscow Public Service Office Shooter Planned Attack in Advance — Law
Iraq.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ Enforcement - Emergencies - TASS.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://tass.
north-africa-west-asia/the-impact-of-the-war-on-terror-on-iraq-state- com/emergencies/1372077.
economy-and-civilian-deaths/. 12 Janetsky, M. (2019). How to Keep the Colombian Peace Deal Alive. Foreign
22 “U.S.-Led Troops End Iraq Combat Mission, as Planned - Military Officials | Policy. Retrieved October 22, 2019, from https://foreignpolicy.
Reuters.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle- com/2019/09/08/how-to-keep-the-colombian-peace-deal-alive-farc-
east/iraq-security-adviser-says-international-coalition-ends-combat-mission- duqueuribe-colombia/
no-us-2021-12-09/. 13 “Peru’s Shining Path Kills 16, Including Children, Ahead of Polls - BBC News.”
23 Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford. “MMP: Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-
Islamic State.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/ america-57239680.
mappingmilitants/profiles/islamic-state.
24 Council on Foreign Relations. “Al-Shabab.” Accessed February 21, 2022.
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/al-shabab.
SECTION 3: TERROR IN THE SAHEL
25 “Trump Orders Withdrawal of US Troops from Somalia - BBC News.” Accessed 1 Hansen, Stig Jarle. Horn, Sahel and Rift: Fault-Lines of the African Jihad.
February 21, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55196130. London: Hurst & Company, 2018.
26 “Examining Extremism: Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (al Shabaab).” 2 Boeke, Sergei. “Pathways out of the Quagmire? Perspectives for al-Qaeda in
Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.csis.org/blogs/examining- the Sahel.” The Hague: The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The
extremism/examining-extremism-harakat-al-shabaab-al-mujahideen-al- Hague (ICCT) i, August 2021. https://icct.nl/app/uploads/2021/08/
shabaab.
51 The New Humanitarian. “The New Humanitarian | No Shortage of Recruits for 74 USAID. “Lake Chad Basin – Complex Emergency,” September 30, 2020.
Boko Haram in Cameroon’s Far North.” The New Humanitarian, March 5, 2015. https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2020_09_30_-_USG_
https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/fr/node/255134. Lake_Chad_Basin_Complex_Emergency_Fact_Sheet_4.pdf.
52 Kalfelis, Melina C. “With or Without the State: Moral Divergence and the
Question of Trust in Security Assemblages in Burkina Faso.” Journal of
SECTION 4: TERRORISM, CONFLICT AND INSURGENCY
Intervention and Statebuilding 15, no. 5 (2021): 598–613. https://doi.org/10.108
0/17502977.2021.1986255. 1 Defined as countries that had at least one conflict that led to 25 or more
53 Barnett, James, Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, and Abdulaziz Abdulaziz. battle-related deaths in a calendar year.
“Northwestern Nigeria: A Jihadization of Banditry, or a ‘Banditization’ of 2 This relationship is statistically significant at the 0.01 per cent level (p < 0.01)
Jihad?” CTC Sentinel 15, no. 1 (January 2022): 46–67. 3 “Egypt’s Counterinsurgency Success in Sinai | The Washington Institute.”
54 Smith, Seán. “Building Integrity in Mali’s Defence and Security Sector.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/
Transparency International, 2019. https://ti-defence.org/wp-content/ policy-analysis/egypts-counterinsurgency-success-sinai.
uploads/2019/10/TIDS_BuildingIntegrity_Mali.pdf. 4 “Syria’s War and the Descent Into Horror.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://
55 GTI Report 2022 www.cfr.org/article/syrias-civil-war.
56 UNDP. “Measuring the Economic Impact of Violent Extremism Leading to 5 “How ISIS Is Transforming | RAND.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.
Terrorism in Africa.” UNDP, 2019. https://www.undp.org/publications/ rand.org/blog/2017/09/how-isis-is-transforming.html.
measuring-economic-impact-violent-extremism-leading-terrorism- 6 “How ISIS Is Transforming | RAND.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.
africa#modal-publication-download. rand.org/blog/2017/09/how-isis-is-transforming.html.
57 Campbell, John. “Boko Haram Defections Spike in Nigeria and Cameroon | 7 Uppsala/ Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Armed Conflict Database /
Council on Foreign Relations.” Council on Foreign Relations, August 18, 2021. Armed Conflict Location Events Database (ACLED)
https://www.cfr.org/blog/boko-haram-defections-spike-nigeria-and- 8 "Counterterrorism and youth radicalization in Jordan: Social and political
cameroon. dimensions." CTC Sentinel 10.4 (2017): 25-30.
58 Nsaibia, Héni, and Caleb Weiss. “The End of the Sahelian Anomaly: How the 9 Izzi, Valeria. “PROMOTING DECENT EMPLOYMENT FOR AFRICAN YOUTH AS A
Global Conflict between the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida Finally Came to West PEACEBUILDING STRATEGY,” n.d., 64.
Africa.” CTC Sentinel 13, no. 7 (July 2020): 1–15. 10 “Germany’s Jihadists: Young, Male, Losers.” Accessed February 21, 2022.
59 Demuynck, Méryl, and Julie Colemam. “The Shifting Sands of the Sahel’s https://www.thelocal.de/20140911/germanys-jihadis-young-male-failures/
Terrorism Landscape - ICCT.” ICCT, March 12, 2020. https://icct.nl/publication/ 11 https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/resources/SR236Venhaus.pdf
the-shifting-sands-of-the-sahels-terrorism-landscape/. 12 “The New Humanitarian | No Shortage of Recruits for Boko Haram in
60 Buchanan-Clarke, Stephen, and Sibusiso Nkomo. “Violent Extremism in Cameroon’s Far North.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.
Africa.” Afrobarometer Policy Pape. Afrobarometer, July 2021. thenewhumanitarian.org/fr/node/255134.
61 UN News. “35.8 Million Face Lean Season Food Crisis in West Africa and Sahel 13 “ISIS ‘Executes 100 Deserters’ in Syria’s Raqqa | Al Arabiya English.” Accessed
| | UN News.” UN, December 7, 2021. https://news.un.org/en/ February 21, 2022. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2014/12/20/
story/2021/12/1107302. ISIS-executes-100-deserters-in-Syria-s-Raqqa-report.
62 WFP. “Central Sahel Emergency | World Food Programme.” World Food 14 “Muslim Communities, Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Radicalisation: A
Programme, Undated. https://www.wfp.org/support-us/stories/central-sahel- Critically Reflective Approach to Engagement.” Accessed February 21, 2022.
the-humanitarian-emergency-the-world-is-ignoring. https://www.infona.pl/resource/bwmeta1.element.elsevier-696be0bc-77e6-
63 Middendorp, Tom, and Reinier Bergema. “The Warning Signs Are Flashing Red 3ce2-a0d3-c6bcad2e89b4.
The Interplay between Climate Change and Violent Extremism in the Western 15 “Analysing Terrorism from a Systems Thinking Perspective.” Accessed
Sahel.” The Hague: ICCT, September 2019. https://icct.nl/app/ February 21, 2022. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262826171_
uploads/2019/10/PB-The-Warning-Signs-are-flashing-red_2e-proef.pdf. Analysing_Terrorism_from_a_Systems_Thinking_Perspective.
64 Wezeman, Pieter, Alexandra Kuimova, and Siemon Wezeman. “Trends in 16 “Political Socialization and Terrorist Radicalization Among Individuals Who
International Arms Transfers, 2020.” SIPRI, March 2021. https://www.sipri.org/ Joined Al-Shabaab in Kenya: Studies in Conflict & Terrorism: Vol 37, No 11.”
sites/default/files/2021-03/fs_2103_at_2020_v2.pdf; Middendorp, Tom, and Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10
Reinier Bergema. “The Warning Signs Are Flashing Red The Interplay between 57610X.2014.952511.
Climate Change and Violent Extremism in the Western Sahel.” The Hague: 17 “‘ISIS in Their Own Words’ by Anne Speckhard and Molly D. Ellenberg.”
ICCT, September 2019. https://icct.nl/app/uploads/2019/10/PB-The-Warning- Accessed February 21, 2022. https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/jss/vol13/iss1/5/.
Signs-are-flashing-red_2e-proef.pdf. 18 “‘ISIS in Their Own Words’ by Anne Speckhard and Molly D. Ellenberg.”
65 Frimpong, Osei Baffour. “Climate Change and Violent Extremism in the Lake Accessed February 21, 2022. https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/jss/vol13/iss1/5/.
Chad Basin: Key Issues and Way Forward.” Washington, DC: Wilson Center, 19 “How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida | RAND.”
July 2020. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/ Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/
documents/Climate%20Change%20and%20Violent%20Extremism%20in%20 MG741-1.html.
the%20Lake%20Chad%20Basin%20Key%20Issues%20and%20Way%20 20 Fredman, Leah A., Michael D. Buhrmester, Angel Gomez, William T. Fraser,
Forward_0.pdf. Sanaz Talaifar, Skylar M. Brannon, and William B. Swann. “Identity Fusion,
66 Includes the administrative units of Adamawa, Borno, Diffa, Extreme-Nord, Extreme Pro-Group Behavior, and the Path to Defusion: Identity Fusion and
Gombe, Lac, Yobe. OCHA. “Lake Chad Basin Area - Administrative Boundaries Extreme Behavior.” Social and Personality Psychology Compass 9, no. 9
for Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger - Humanitarian Data Exchange.” OCHA (September 2015): 468–80. https://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12193.
Services, Undated. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/lac-chad-basin-area. 21 “Ideology Isn’t Everything: Transnational Terrorism, Recruitment Incentives,
67 Bureau of Counterterrorism. “Country Reports on Terrorism 2019,” 2019. and Attack Casualties: Terrorism and Political Violence: Vol 28, No 5.”
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Country-Reports-on- Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0
Terrorism-2019-2.pdf. 9546553.2014.961635.
68 Frimpong, Osei Baffour. “Climate Change and Violent Extremism in the Lake 22 “Why Radicalization Fails: Barriers to Mass Casualty Terrorism: Terrorism and
Chad Basin: Key Issues and Way Forward.” Washington, DC: Wilson Center, Political Violence: Vol 32, No 4.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.
July 2020. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/ tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546553.2017.1409212.
documents/Climate%20Change%20and%20Violent%20Extremism%20in%20 23 “How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida | RAND.”
the%20Lake%20Chad%20Basin%20Key%20Issues%20and%20Way%20 Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/
Forward_0.pdf. MG741-1.html.
69 Frimpong, Osei Baffour. “Climate Change and Violent Extremism in the Lake 24 Wood, Alex Stephen. “Dangerous Allies: States, Paramilitary Violence, and
Chad Basin: Key Issues and Way Forward.” Washington, DC: Wilson Center, Civil War,” n.d., 86.
July 2020. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/ 25 “FARC | History & Peace Deal | Britannica.” Accessed February 21, 2022.
documents/Climate%20Change%20and%20Violent%20Extremism%20in%20 https://www.britannica.com/topic/FARC.
the%20Lake%20Chad%20Basin%20Key%20Issues%20and%20Way%20 26 “Colombia Reaches New Peace Deal with FARC Rebels | News | Al Jazeera.”
Forward_0.pdf Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/13/
70 Campbell, John. “Boko Haram Defections Spike in Nigeria and Cameroon | colombia-reaches-new-peace-deal-with-farc-rebels.
Council on Foreign Relations.” Council on Foreign Relations, August 18, 2021. 27 “US Removes Colombia’s FARC from Terrorism Blacklist - CNNPolitics.”
https://www.cfr.org/blog/boko-haram-defections-spike-nigeria-and- Accessed February 21, 2022. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/30/politics/
cameroon. farc-delisting/index.html.
71 Campbell, John. “Boko Haram Defections Spike in Nigeria and Cameroon | 28 “US Could Drop Colombia’s FARC from ‘Terror’ List by End of Month | Conflict
Council on Foreign Relations.” Council on Foreign Relations, August 18, 2021. News | Al Jazeera.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/
https://www.cfr.org/blog/boko-haram-defections-spike-nigeria-and- news/2021/11/24/us-to-drop-colombia-farc-rebels-terror-list-end-of-month.
cameroon. 29 “Farc: Colombian Rebel Commander ‘El Paisa’ Killed in Venezuela - BBC
72 USAID. “Lake Chad Basin – Complex Emergency,” September 30, 2020. News.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-
https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2020_09_30_-_USG_ america-59543742.
Lake_Chad_Basin_Complex_Emergency_Fact_Sheet_4.pdf. 30 “US Removes Colombia’s FARC from Terrorism Blacklist - CNNPolitics.”
73 USAID. “Lake Chad Basin – Complex Emergency,” September 30, 2020. Accessed February 21, 2022. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/30/politics/
https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2020_09_30_-_USG_ farc-delisting/index.html.
Lake_Chad_Basin_Complex_Emergency_Fact_Sheet_4.pdf. 31 https://curate.nd.edu/downloads/9c67wm14c71
32 “Five Years After Peace Deal, Colombia Is Running Out of Time, Experts Say 14 “The Use of Social Media by United States Extremists.” National Consortium
- The New York Times.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.nytimes. for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. Accessed February 22,
com/2021/09/26/world/americas/colombia-peace-deal-farc.html. 2022. https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_PIRUS_
33 “Poverty, Social Divisions, and Conflict in Nepal.” Accessed February 21, 2022. UseOfSocialMediaByUSExtremists_ResearchBrief_July2018.pdf.
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/7074. 15 Waters, Gregory, and Robert Postings. “Spiders of the Caliphate: Mapping the
34 “Dilemma and Factionalism in the Maoist Politics of Nepal.” Accessed Islamic State’s Global Support Network on Facebook,” May 2018. https://www.
February 21, 2022. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326068400_ counterextremism.com/sites/default/files/Spiders%20of%20the%20
Dilemma_and_Factionalism_in_the_Maoist_Politics_of_Nepal. Caliphate%20%28May%202018%29.pdf.
35 “The Maoists’ Use of Child Soldiers in Nepal | HRW.” Accessed February 21, 16 “YouTube User Statistics 2022 | Global Media Insight.” Accessed February 22,
2022. https://www.hrw.org/report/2007/02/01/children-ranks/maoists-use- 2022. https://www.globalmediainsight.com/blog/youtube-users-statistics/.
child-soldiers-nepal. 17 “Number of Steam Users 2021 | Statista.” Accessed February 22, 2022. https://
36 “Strategic Interaction Between Rebels and the State: A Study of the Maoist www.statista.com/statistics/308330/number-stream-users/.
Conflict in Nepal: Studies in Conflict & Terrorism: Vol 36, No 7.” Accessed 18 Anti-Defamation League. “This Is Not a Game: How Steam Harbors
February 21, 2022. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/105761 Extremists.” Accessed February 22, 2022. https://www.adl.org/
0X.2013.793592. steamextremism.
37 https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/50-nepal-backgrounder-ceasefire- 19 Business of Apps. “Discord Revenue and Usage Statistics (2022),” September
soft-landing-or-strategic-pause.pdf 9, 2020. https://www.businessofapps.com/data/discord-statistics/.
38 https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/184-nepal-peace-and-justice.pdf 20 “FATF Annual Report 2019-2020.” Financial Action Task Force (FATF) i, 2020.
39 “The Propaganda of the Deed: Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Mobilization www.fatf-gafi.org/publications/fatfgeneral/documents/annual-
on JSTOR.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4620071. report-2019-2020.html.
40 https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/115-nepal-from-people-power-to- 21 Investigations, Alexi Mostrous, Head of. “Big Brands Fund Terror through
peace.pdf Online Adverts,” sec. news. Accessed February 22, 2022. https://www.
41 https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/173-nepal-s-future-in-whose-hands.pdf thetimes.co.uk/article/big-brands-fund-terror-knnxfgb98.
42 https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/b131-nepal-s-peace-process-the- 22 Cronin, Audrey Kurth. Power to the People: How Open Technological
endgame-nears.pdf Innovation Is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists. Oxford, New York: Oxford
43 “Terrorism as Method in Nepali Maoist Insurgency, 1996–2016: Small Wars & University Press, 2020.
Insurgencies: Vol 28, No 1.” Accessed February 21, 2022. https://www. 23 “ALGORITHMS AND TERRORISM: THE MALICIOUS USE OF ARTIFICIAL
tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09592318.2016.1265820. INTELLIGENCE FOR TERRORIST PURPOSES.” Cyber Security and New
44 “No ‘End of the Peace Process’: Federalism and Ethnic Violence in Nepal, Technologies Unit of the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Centre (UNCCT) in
Cooperation and Conflict | 10.1177/0010836717750199 | DeepDyve.” Accessed the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) and the United
February 21, 2022. https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/sage/no-end-of-the-peace- Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI) t, 2021.
process-federalism-and-ethnic-violence-in-nepal-WqwAwtVSyU?key=sage. un.org/counterterrorism/sites/www.un.org.counterterrorism/files/
45 “No ‘End of the Peace Process’: Federalism and Ethnic Violence in Nepal, malicious-use-of-ai-uncct-unicri-report-hd.pdf.
Cooperation and Conflict | 10.1177/0010836717750199 | DeepDyve.” Accessed 24 Washington Post. “ISIS Used an Armed Drone to Kill Two Kurdish Fighters and
February 21, 2022. https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/sage/no-end-of-the-peace- Wound French Troops, Report Says.” Accessed February 22, 2022. https://
process-federalism-and-ethnic-violence-in-nepal-WqwAwtVSyU?key=sage. www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/10/11/isis-used-an-
46 “Maoist People’s War and the Revolution of Everyday Life in Nepal.” Accessed armed-drone-to-kill-two-kurdish-fighters-and-wound-french-troops-report-
February 21, 2022. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/maoist-peoples- says/.
war-and-the-revolution-of-everyday-life-in-nepal/ 25 “ALGORITHMS AND TERRORISM: THE MALICIOUS USE OF ARTIFICIAL
B982826F24E6C75F7E50559B42F6C246. INTELLIGENCE FOR TERRORIST PURPOSES.” Cyber Security and New
Technologies Unit of the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Centre (UNCCT) in
the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) and the United
EXPERT ESSAYS Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI) t, 2021.
un.org/counterterrorism/sites/www.un.org.counterterrorism/files/
The Technology of Terror: from Dynamite to the Metaverse
malicious-use-of-ai-uncct-unicri-report-hd.pdf.
1 Hoffman, Bruce. Inside Terrorism. Columbia University Press, 2006. 26 Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. “The Islamic State and Drones:
Alternatively, Cronin, Audrey Kurth. Power to the People: How Open Supply, Scale, and Future Threats,” July 11, 2018. https://ctc.usma.edu/
Technological Innovation Is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists. Oxford, New York: islamic-state-drones-supply-scale-future-threats/.
Oxford University Press, 2020. 27 Hambling, David. “Houthi Drone Strike Hits Saudi Plane At Airport— Again.”
2 Larabee, Ann. The Wrong Hands: Popular Weapons Manuals and Their Historic Forbes. Accessed February 22, 2022. https://www.forbes.com/sites/
Challenges to a Democratic Society. 1st edition. Oxford ; New York: Oxford davidhambling/2021/09/01/houthi-drone-strikes-hits-saudi-plane-at-airport--
University Press, 2015. again/.
3 Kahaner, Larry. “Weapon Of Mass Destruction.” Washington Post, November 28 “Berlin Memorandum on Good Practices for Countering Terrorist Use of
26, 2006. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2006/11/26/ Unmanned Aerial Systems.” Global Counterterrorism Forum. Accessed
weapon-of-mass-destruction/72a246a2-4487-4162-b49d-8713f3bbb1c4/. February 22, 2022. https://www.thegctf.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=j5gj4fSJ4
4 Cronin, Audrey Kurth. Power to the People: How Open Technological fI%3D&portalid=1.
Innovation Is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists. Oxford, New York: Oxford 29 In 2020, the continued scope of terrorists’ online presence was visible when
University Press, 2020. on Europol’s Referral Action Day Europol and 17 countries removed in one day
5 States, Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United. “The 9/11 1,906 URLs linking to terrorist content which were located on 180 platforms
Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist and websites.
Attacks Upon the United States (9/11 Report).” Government. govinfo.gov. 30 “2021 Trends Show Increased Globalized Threat of Ransomware | CISA.”
National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, July 22, Accessed February 22, 2022. https://www.cisa.gov/uscert/ncas/alerts/
2004. https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.govinfo. aa22-040a.
gov%2Fapp%2Fdetails%2FGPO-911REPORT. 31 “White-Crusade: How to Prevent Right-Wing Extremists from Exploiting the
6 Cronin, Audrey Kurth. Power to the People: How Open Technological Internet | GCSP.” Accessed February 22, 2022. https://www.gcsp.ch/
Innovation Is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists. Oxford, New York: Oxford publications/white-crusade-how-prevent-right-wing-extremists-exploiting-
University Press, 2020. internet.
7 “Pentagon Bomb Squad Chief Looks Back | WIRED.” Accessed February 22, 32 “GCSP Terrorism and Preventing Violent Extremism Course | Building a
2022. https://www.wired.com/2007/11/the-other-day-i/. National Strategy for Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) - A Virtual Learning
8 Masys, Anthony J. Handbook of Security Science. Springer International Journey 2022.” Accessed February 22, 2022. https://www.gcsp.ch/courses/
Publishing, 2022. building-national-strategy-preventing-violent-extremism-pve-virtual-learning-
9 Cook, Joana, and Gina Vale. “From Daesh to ‘Diaspora’: Tracing the Women journey-2022.
and Minors of Islamic State,” 2018, 76. 33 "Big Tech Has Outgrown This Planet", NY Times, Accessed February 28, 2022,
10 “Greater Cooperation Needed to Tackle Danger Posed by Returning Foreign https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/technology/big-tech-profits.html
Fighters, Head of Counter‑Terrorism Office Tells Security Council | Meetings 34 Cronin, Audrey Kurth. Power to the People: How Open Technological
Coverage and Press Releases.” Accessed February 22, 2022. https://www.un. Innovation Is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists. Oxford, New York: Oxford
org/press/en/2017/sc13097.doc.htm. University Press, 2020.
11 Mazzetti, Mark, Eric Schmitt, and Robert F. Worth. “Two-Year Manhunt Led to 35 Masys, Anthony J. Handbook of Security Science. Springer International
Killing of Awlaki in Yemen.” The New York Times, September 30, 2011, sec. Publishing, 2022.
World. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/01/world/middleeast/anwar-al- 36 “Topic: Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft (GAFAM).” Statista.
awlaki-is-killed-in-yemen.html. Accessed February 22, 2022. https://www.statista.com/topics/4213/
12 Liang, Christina. “Cyber Jihad | GCSP.” Cyber Jihad, February 1, 2015. https:// google-apple-facebook-amazon-and-microsoft-gafam/.
www.gcsp.ch/publications/cyber-jihad.
13 Zucchino, David. “Collapse and Conquest: The Taliban Strategy That Seized
Afghanistan.” The New York Times, August 18, 2021, sec. World. https://www.
nytimes.com/2021/08/18/world/asia/taliban-victory-strategy-afghanistan.html.
Why Morocco’s counterterrorism evolution attacks matters to
wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Sahel-Moving_beyond_military_containment.
pdf.
22 Englebert, Pierre, and Rida Lyammouri. “Sahel: Moving Beyond Military
Containment.” Washington, DC: Atlantic Council, Africa Center and Policy
Center for the New South, February 2022. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/
wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Sahel-Moving_beyond_military_containment.
pdf.
23 Lia, Brynjar. “Understanding Jihadi Proto-States.” Perspectives on Terrorism 9,
no. 4 (2015): 12.
24 Thurston, Alex. “Why Jihadists Are Collecting ‘Zakat’ in the Sahel.” Political
Violence at a Glance (blog), July 12, 2021. https://politicalviolenceataglance.
org/2021/07/12/why-jihadists-are-collecting-zakat-in-the-sahel/.
25 Rupesinghe, Natasja, Mikael Hiberg Naghizadeh, and Corentin Cohen.
“Reviewing Jihadist Governance in the Sahel.” Oslo: The Norwegian Institute
of International Affairs, 2021. https://www.nupi.no/nupi/Publikasjoner/
CRIStin-Pub/Reviewing-Jihadist-Governance-in-the-Sahel.
26 Easterlin, Richard Ainley. Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in
Economic Growth: The American Experience. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research and Columbia University, 1968.
27 Moller, Herbert. “Youth as a Force in the Modern World.” Comparative Studies
in Society and History 10, no. 3 (1968): 237–60. https://doi.org/10.1017/
S0010417500004898.
28 Cincotta, Richard, and Stephen Smith. “What Future for the Western Sahel?”
Washington DC: The Atlantic Council: The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and
Security, 2021. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/
AC_What-future-for-the-Western-Sahel.pdf.
29 Galtung, Johan. “Violence, Peace, and Peace Research.” Journal of Peace
Research 6, no. 3 (1969): 167–91. http://www.jstor.org/stable/422690
30 Rupesinghe, Natasja, and Bøås Morten. “Local Drivers of Violent Extremism in
Central Mali.” Oslo: The Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, 2019.
https://www.nupi.no/en/Publications/CRIStin-Pub/Local-Drivers-of-Violent-
Extremism-in-Central-Mali.
31 Rowan, Anthea. “Africa’s Burning Charcoal Problem.” BBC News, September
25, 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8272603.stm.
We develop global and national indices, calculate the economic impact of violence, analyse country
level risk and have developed an empirical framework for Positive Peace that provides a roadmap to
overcome adversity and conflict, helping to build and sustain lasting peace.
Download our latest reports and research briefs for free at:
visionofhumanity.org/resources
FOR MORE INFORMATION
INFO@ECONOMICSANDPEACE.ORG
EXPLORE OUR WORK
WWW.ECONOMICSANDPEACE.ORG AND
WWW.VISIONOFHUMANITY.ORG
GlobalPeaceIndex
@GlobPeaceIndex
@IndicedePaz