1.

a. The manager hates the player D. Van de Beek. The chance of him playing is
very unlikely. Suggest a probability of him playing [1]
b. B. Fernandes scored 30 goals last season. Of these, 24 were penalties. If he
scores 20 goals this season, predict how many will be penalties. [2]
c. In a season of 38 games he took 114 shots on target (SOT). Calculate his
average SOT per game [1]
d. Fernandes is facing the team Aston Villa this weekend.
The first keeper, E. Martinez has a save rate of 80%
The substitute keeper, S. Carson has a save rate of 50%
The chance that E. Martinez will play is 75%
Find the probability that B. Fernandes will score if he takes a shot on target [5]
e. Based on how many SOT he takes per game, calculate the probability he will
score at least once this game (3 SF) [3]

2.

3. There is a match this weekend and Timo Werner has a 30% chance of playing or else Lukaku will
play. Timo Werner has made 40% of his shots and Lukaku has made 70% of his.
a. Draw a tree diagram to represent the situation.
b. What is the probability that
i. Werner Scores
ii. Lukaku doesn’t score

4. Information about 2 footballers is given, in the table below:
Raphinha Sarr
Shots 19 16
Goals 3 4
Starting Chance 75% 25%
Goals by others 60% 32%
For some matches, Sarr plays in place of Raphinha.
a. Who is most likely to score between the two? (What is the probability of each one scoring?)
b. Draw a tree diagram to represent the situation.
c. What is the probability of Raphinha scoring a goal?
 d. What is the probability of the team scoring a goal?