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Article in International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Science & Geomechanics Abstracts · October 1983
DOI: 10.1016/0148-9062(83)90003-7
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N-ECHELON FAILURE
~:JL+ ZRBR
Fig. 4. En-echelonand in-plane failures.
Fig. 2. Joint persistence as length ratio.
P f = lira Nf
];o i Aj Aj
~'Oi+ ~'bi Aj4"Ar A in which N is the number of critical paths (failing and
Fig. 3. Jennings"relations. not failing) and Nf is the number of critical paths for
EINSTEIN et al.: DISCONTINUITY PERSISTENCE AND SLOPE STABILITY 229
Or
1"
Fig. 5, Mohr's circle at failure predicted by Jennings' relations at low stress levels.
which SM < 0 (the number of failure paths). Equation (SM > 1). Simulating many configurations (realizations)
(8) suggests a way to estimate Pf: using statistical represents various ways that joint populations with the
information on joint length and spacing distributions same spacing and length characterization may manifest,
one can simulate a number of networks of joints such as and at the same time produces the parametrs N and Nf
that in Fig. 7 and then determine the SM for all possible for use in equation (8). In any one realization the SM for
paths in each network or configuration. The critical path the critical path can be used to calculate an apparent
for a configuration of the type in Fig. 7 is obtained by persistence, and thus one obtains a relation between
identifying the path of minimum SM among all or resistance and apparent persistence for a rock mass
among a reasonable number of in-plane and en-echelon characterized by joint length and spacing distributions.
paths. In some configurations the critical path will be a To date, these principles have been applied to 2-D
failure path (SM ~< l) while in others it will not be slope stability models in which the pattern of jointing,
and strength coefficients, are assumed similar for all
cross-sections: 3-D extensions for slope and tunnel appli-
/ cations have been limited [7].
j Earlier probabilistic 2-D slope models
Call and Nicholas [l] and Giynn [3] have developed
methods of 2-D slope stability analysis that use statisti-
cal information on jointing and that allow for both
in-plane and en-echeion failures. The model of Call and
Nicholas considers two random joint sets. Given distri-
butions of joint length and separation and of spacing
J/
~~-I~ ,,Critical oath
-S/
Fig. 7. Joint configuration and its critical path in a portion of the rock
Fig. 6. Critical paths for different joint configurations. mass.
230 EINSTEIN et al.: D I S C O N T I N U I T Y PERSISTENCE AND SLOPE S T A B I L I T Y
path
/•Step = aangle
" //;/
% Tensile Failure = "~- I00 Fig. 9. Rock slope with single set of parallel joints.
RANDOM VARIABLES
Apparent persistence depends explicitly on strength
along the path and implicitly on configuration. Repeated
Dip
Length t Matter Joint Set simulation of the joint pattern yields in a distribution of
Spacing Cross Joint Set K, to be used in a probabilistic version of Jennings'
Overlap approach. The result is probability of slope failure.
Both previous models consider stochastic jointing and
Fig. 8. Call and Nicholas [1] model--general features.
failures occuring in plane or an echelon. Results are
expressed as probability distributions. The limitations of
between joint planes for each set, the procedure simu- these models are that they (1) apply to a specific rock
lates critical "step-paths" as shown in mass geometry and (2) use unsatisfactory, mechanical
Fig. 8. Specifically, for each simulated realization of the models (i.e. shearing is ignored or unrealistically treated)
joint network, "exit points" are identified (i.e. inter- [7,2].
sections of the shallow joint planes with the slope face),
and the critical step-path through each exit point is New probabilistic persistence modeI--SLOPESIM
found. Critical paths are obtained by alternately follow- SLOPESIM is a computer code for the analysis of
ing jointed segments, which fail in shear, and tensile rock slopes that contain one set of parallel joints (Fig.
fractures through the intact rock between joint planes. 9). SLOPESIM use Monte Carlo simulation to generate
Shear failure of intact rock bridges between joints is joint patterns ("realizations") in accordance with given
considered improbable except for extremely short probability distributions of joint length and plane spac-
bridges (<6cm). Faced with a choice among paths ing (corresponding to the statistical information on joint
through intact rock, the model chooses that with lowest length and spacing taken in surveys). For each exit point
angle. Through simulation of the jointing pattern, the the algorithm finds the path of minimum SM. Critical
model calculates the distribution of average step-path paths may be planar or may involve transitions to
angle and fraction of path containing jointed segments, overlying joint planes. The distribution of SM and in
the latter taken as a measure of persistence. These particular the probability of unstable paths (SM < 0)
distributions are conditioned on slope geometry, depend on the elevation of the exit joint. SLOPESIM
strength parameters, and spacing. estimates the distribution and probability by grouping
Glynn's [2,3] JOINTSIM model generates joint net- exit points according to elevation intervals (Fig. 10). For
works with exponential distributions of spacing and example, the probability of unstable paths for the i th
length. The strength of intact rock bridges, in plane or elevation interval is calculated as:
en echelon, is determined by superimposing a negative
increment of horizontal stresses AaH and a positive Pf, = ~ / , (10)
increment of shear stress Ar on the initial state of stress,
such that failure is caused. Using this calculated strength
of rock bridges and the resistance of the jointed seg- Critical paths
ments, the critical path for a given joint pattern is
calculated. "Apparent persistence" KS is defined as the
value of K along a joint plane that would have the same
resistance as the failure path,
Rr- R
K, - - - (9)
Rr- Rj'
where
R= resistance of failure path,
Rj = resistance of joint plane if 100Yo persistence,
R~ = resistance along joint path, if intact rock only.
Rr = resistance along joint path, if intact rock only. Fig. 10. Elevation intervals H,.
EINSTEIN et al.: DISCONTINUITY PERSISTENCE AND SLOPE STABILITY 231
L = E W, sin ~,
i o) FAILURE IN TENSION
R = ~ R~, (l I) %
where ct is the angle of jointing, ~ is the weight of the
i th slice, and R~ is the peak shear force mobilized by the ~ . ~ L o w angle primary ~Nlar
portion of path underlying that slice. The ith portion of
the path may be jointed, in which case Ri can be I J~
calculated through equation (5), or it may consist of
intact rock. In the latter case R~ is best calculated using b) FAILURE IN SHEAR
rock resistance criteria in Lajtai [6] and Einstein et al. [2]. Fig. 12. Direct shear failure modes--after Lajtai [6].
232 EINSTEIN et al.: DISCONTINUITY PERSISTENCE AND SLOPE STABILITY
tions a continuous tension crack occurs directly between in which X is the distance between the joint planes that
joints, without secondary shear fractures (Fig. 17). define the bridge (Fig. 17) and Ts is the intact rock tensile
Therefore, Mode 1 failures with initial tension fractures strength. The contributions to resistance from intact
encompass the entire range of geometrical conditions in rock bridges and from joint segments are added to
slopes with a single joint set, including in-plane as well obtain the total resisting force associated with a given
as low- and high-angle out-of-plane transitions. path.
In summary, intact-rock resistance R can be calcu- The driving force associated with the same path is
lated as follows: For in-plane or low-angle out-of-plane assumed to be due solely to the overburden weight; it is
transitions (fl < 0, + ~), therefore calculated as the sum of the driving force
contributions Li from each slice above a path segment
R = r,d, (12) (Fig. I 1). If ~t denotes the angle of sliding (joint angle)
in which d is the "in-plane length" of the rock bridge and W~ is the weight of the i 'h slice, then
(Fig. 16) and z, is the peak shear stress mobilized in the L,= W, sin ~t (15)
direction of jointing. In terms of the intact cohesion c~
and the ratio c = z,/c, the peak shear stress is The SM of a given path can thus be calculated. (The
effect of cleft water pressure has not been included in the
r, = ~ + I. (13)
S fracture
O"
Fig. 16. Failure of "'low angle" (fl <(0 +~)) transitions through
Fig. 14. Mohr's circle--failure by shear fracturing (Mode 2). intact rock.
EINSTEIN et al.: DISCONTINUITY PERSISTENCE AND SLOPE STABILITY 233
3- z
mean joint length JL may also substantially modify P,
and/3 at any given depth, whereas mean joint spacing S-P
plays a less significant role. For small K (K < 30°,;) P,
depends on K and S-P almost exclusively through the
ratio K/SP. which to first-order accuracy equals the
mean intensity 7.
Joint inclination, ~, has varying effect of reliability.
Values of ~ for which reliability is smallest are typically
around 45 °. As ~ increases above this value, approaching
Fig. 18. Slope geometry for parametric study. the slope angle, reliability increases due to the decrease
in driving force. This effect is especially significant in
slopes with weak intact rock (cr < 4.8 MPa (100 kst))
and weak joints ~bj<<~). Reliability increases also as
2c(tan~ - tan qS,) (16) decreases from 45-, especially as it approaches %.
Kc=100 1 x/~+l-2ctan4~,'
Slope depth z is a very significant parameter. For this
where reason, probability of failure is presented here as Pf(z)
W cos a curves. Figure 20 shows a few such curves for different
C-- --
JLcr slope parameter combinations and leads to two obser-
vations:
(4) Second-Movement Reliability Index [3 is the num-
ber of standard deviations separating the mean K. from (1) The shape of Pr(z) does not vary much with any
the critical value Kc, parameter and displays a minimum at a "characteristic
depth", Zc. This depth is in some cases outside the range
/3 - K~
mx__-____.___~" (17) shown. That Pf decreases with slope height before in-
creasing again for H > zc seems at first glance to be
For Fh.(K) the cumulative distribution function of ap- incorrect. However, the result is in fact correct: it is due
parent persistence at a given depth, the probability of to the overriding part played by persistent portions of
failure at that depth becomes joints for low slope heights (and thus small driving
forces). For fixed mean joint length JL the probability of
Pf = 1 - F~q (K~)
a 100% persistent joint increases as z decreases (at z = 0
= 1 - Fx,(mK+/3ax,) (18) the probability of failure equals the average persistence
K'!). Observations in nature are consistent with this
The sensitivity of these four safety measures to the
result. Natural slopes are often convex near the crest.
parameters of Table 1 has been studied by varying one
Although weathering effects play a role in this geometry,
parameter at a time within the specified ranges, while
holding all the other parameters fixed at given values. Of
special interest is the dependence of Pr on depth z, which
50
is shown in Fig. 19. The same figure contains a plot of Cr = 1,2- 24 MPo
Among the joint geometry parameters (K, JL, SP), mean F i g . 19. E f f e c t o f i n t a c t - r o c k c o h e s i o n (cJ o n Pr(:)-
E I N S T E I N et al.: D I S C O N T I N U I T Y P E R S I S T E N C E A N D SLOPE S T A B I L I T Y 235
zc DEC. z
t
\
hc I)
0 Z -~4P- 0 Z ---4~ 0 Z.~- 0 Z .-~-
Fig. 20. Probability of failure Pr as a function of slope depth z and of the other slope parameters.
the higher probability of a joint isolating a wedge near mechanical models of joint and intact-rock failures can
the crest is significant. certainly be improved. Finally, procedures of the type
(2) Pf(z) can often be approximated by Pl(z) (see used here for slopes have potential application in rock-
Appendix A), which is the probability that the joint mass stability problems in tunnelling and can be ex-
plane at depth z is 100% persistent. This approximation tended to problems of rock-mass deformation and flow.
is good either when Cr or q~jis high (~j ~ ~t or Cr > 24 MPa
(500 ks0). Also when both cr and ~j are small (q~j<<ac
and cr < 4.8 MPa (100 ksf)), the approximation remains
CONCLUSIONS
good for
Joint persistence has a major effect on rock-mass
(a) Shallow depths [z ~<6-9 m (20-30 ft)]
resistance, and yet, it is difficult to define a persistence
(b) Short joint length [JL ~<3-6 m (10-20 ft)]
parameter simply and directly related to resistance.
(c) Large joint-plane spacing [SP > 3 m (10 ft)]
First, joint geometry internal to a rock mass is not
(d) Joint inclination angle ~t close to ~bj or
known with certainty, and second, failure involves a
to 0. combination of mechanisms, including shearing along
At very large depths, (on the order of 300 m (1000 ft), if joints and failure through intact rock, either in plane or
c, is very large) the approximation Pf(z)~ P~(z) loses en-echelon.
accuracy regardless of the other parameters. The proposed approach expressed probability of rock-
slope failure as a function of joint geometry and intact
The parametric analysis has been instrumental in
rock and joint resistance. Spatial variability of joint
assessing the influence on reliability of strength and
geometry is taken into account by making use of statis-
geometry parameters. Critical parameter combinations
tical information obtained from standard joint surveys.
that lead to failure have been identified. These parame-
Probability of failure as derived with the SLOPESIM
ters (e.g. J---Land ~" if cr and ~bj are small) should be
approach or the related expression of apparent persis-
accurately determined.
tence thus makes it possible to represent the effect of
joint persistence directly.
Parametric studies show the relations between rock-
EXTENSION OF THE SLOPESIM APPROACH
slope reliability (l-Pf) and various mechanical and geo-
In its present form, the model is limited to slopes with metric parameters; graphs of probability of failure vs
a single parallel set of joints and neglects 3-D effects. slope height are particularly illustrative. An important
However, extensions are possible. For example, Shair [8] result is the indication of when strength parameters are
has developed a version of SLOPESIM for two parallel more important than geometry, and vice versa.
joint sets. As expected, reliability is smaller than in Although an initial step, the proposed approach
otherwise comparable cases with a single joint set, the promises insights into a major problem in rock mechan-
magnitude of the safety decrease depending on the ics.
particular parameter combination. A first attempt at
including the third, along-slope dimension has been
made by O'Reilly [7], but more work is needed. Also, the Received 22 December 1982; revised 20 May 1983.
RUM s. 20/5--c
236 EINSTEIN et al.: D I S C O N T I N U I T Y PERSISTENCE A N D SLOPE STABILITY
REFERENCES
1. Call R. D. and Nicholas D. E. Prediction of step path failure
geometry for slope stability analysis. Proc. 19th U.S. Syrup. on Rock
Mechanics (1978).
2. Einstein H. H. et al. Risk analysis for rock slopes in open pit
mines, Parts I-V, USBM Technical Rept J0275015 (1980).
3. Glynn E. F. A probabilistic approach to the stability of rock
slopes, Ph.D. dissertation, M.I.T. (February, 1979).
4. Hasofer A. M. and Lind N. C. Exact and invariant second moment
code format. A S C E J. Engng Mech. Die. 100, 111-121, No. EMI,
Proc. Paper 10376 (February, 1974).
5. Jennings J. E. A mathematical theory for the calculation of the
stability of open cast mines. Proc. Symp. on the Theoretical Back-
ground to the Planning o f Open Pit Mines, pp. 87-102, Johannesburg
(1970). Fig. AI. Geometry for analytical lower bound to Pf(2).
6. Lajtai E. Z. Strength of discontinuous rocks in shear. Geotechnique
19(2), 218-233 (1969).
7. O'Reilly K. J. The effect of joint phase persistence on slope than De. Failure occurs by sliding along the two jointed portions and
reliability, M.Sc. thesis, M.I.T., 553 pp (1980). a connecting fracture through intact rock.
8. Shair A. K. The effect of two sets of joints on rock slope reliability, Because these three failure events are mutually exclusive, the proba-
M.Sc. thesis, M.I.T.. 307pp (1981). bility Pc that any one of them occurs is the sum of their individual
9. Stimpson D. Failure of slopes containing discontinuous planar probabilities (Pt, P2, and P3) and
joints. Proc. 19th U.S. Syrup. on Rock Mechanics, pp. 246-300
Pf(z ) >1 Pc(z) = Pl(z ) + P2(z ) + P3(z ) (AI)
(1978).
Let ~1: be the mean joint length, ~ the mean rock bridge length,
~" = ]'L/(J[ + R-]~) the mean joint plane persistence and g]5 the
APPENDIX A average spacing between joint planes. Also denote by D c the critical
joint separation that corresponds to unstable wedges in cases 2 and 3
An analytical lower bound to the probability o f slope failure (note that D c is stress-dependent and thus dependent on its location in
The probability of failure, Pf(z) has been defined as the fraction of the slope. Since the following approximation omits /)2 and P3, no
unstable critical paths that daylight at depth z. Lower bounds to Pf(z) further consideration of D c is necessary). Thus, using Glynn's [3]
can be obtained by constraining the geometry of the critical path and probabilistic model of joints, one finds the following expression for P~,
the pattern of jointing that can produce failure. One such bound is P2, and P3:
obtained here under the following conditions: with reference to Fig. P~ = K e -L'E = K" e -::dL~') = K e -:'jL ~n'~
A l, failure of the joint plane exiting at : can occur only if:
P, = (I - Pi) PI( 1 - e- Dc/sP)
(1) The joint plane AA' is 100% persistent, i.e. L~ >/L, and failure
is by sliding along AA'.
(2) The joint plane AA' is not completely jointed; however, the next
joint plane BB' is completely jointed (100% persistent) and the distance
(D) between the joint planes is sufficiently small (smaller than a critical Figure 19 showed Pi and Pc derived with SLOPES1M as a function of
distance D,). Failure occurs by sliding along the jointed segment of depth and of intact-rock strength c r (Pt does not depend on c,), while
AA', fracturing through intact rock to connect to BB' and sliding all other parameters are kept constant. As c r increases, Pc becomes
along BB'. closer to P~ because in the limit, as cr-* ~ , failure can occur only if a
(3) Only parts of AA' and BB' are jointed but the jointed parts joint plane is 100% persistent (Mode 1). The probability PI is thus a
overlap or are equal to L (L~ + L~/> L). and the distance D is smaller simple and often good approximation to Pf[2,7].