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Correlation Analysis of Rainfall and Surface Air Temperature to Assess

the Possible Long-term Implications of Global Warming for
Agriculture in Trinidad and Tobago

Conference Paper · November 2014

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Reynold J. Stone
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 Correlation Analysis of Rainfall and Surface Air
Temperature to Assess the Possible Long-term
Implications of Global Warming for Agriculture in
Trinidad and Tobago

Reynold Stone, Ph.D.

Reynold.Stone@sta.uwi.edu

Department of Food Production

Faculty of Food and Agriculture

“Harnessing Science and Technology to Create Knowledge-Based Economies and

Preserve Caribbean Ecosystems”

Magdalena Grand Beach Resort, Tobago, November 21-23, 2014

 Introduction

 Rainfall (R) and surface air temperature (T) are

important in many aspects of our daily lives and the
environment:
– Agriculture
– Tourism
– Health
– Sports and entertainment
– Energy
– Construction
– Water resources, forestry and ecosystems
 Introduction (cont’d)

 Results of some major empirical studies for the

Caribbean including Trinidad & Tobago
– Drier dry seasons (-ve correlation)
– Wetter wet seasons (+ve correlation)
– Drier wet seasons (-ve correlation)

 Projections of downscaled regional computer models

for Trinidad and Tobago
– Higher temperatures, less rainfall (-ve correlation)
 Objectives of the study

 To determine the nature and strength of the rainfall-

temperature(R-T) relationship for Trinidad and Tobago
at the following time scales:

– Annual
– Dry season (January to May)
– Wet season (June to December)
– Early wet season (June to August)
 Data and statistical methods

Piarco, Trinidad
Rainfall and temperature (1946-2012)

Crown Point, Tobago

Rainfall and temperature (1970-2011)

Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, r

Spearman rank correlation coefficient, ρ

Time series plot of annual mean surface air
temperature at Piarco, Trinidad

29.0

28.5

28.0
Temperature, ᵒC

27.5

27.0

26.5

26.0

25.5
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Year
Time series plot of annual rainfall at Piarco,
Trinidad

3000

2500

2000
Rainfall, mm

1500

1000

500

0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Year
 Annual rainfall vs. annual mean surface air
temperature at Piarco, Trinidad

3000

r = 0.044
p = 0.721
2500
Rainfall, mm

2000

1500

1000
25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0
Temperature, ºC
Dry-season rainfall vs. dry-season mean surface
air temperature at Piarco, Trinidad

900

800
r = 0.039
p = 0.756
700

600
Rainfall, mm

500

400

300

200

100

0
25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0
Temperature, ºC
Wet-season rainfall vs. wet-season mean surface
air temperature at Piarco, Trinidad

2200

2000 r = - 0.063
p = 0.610
1800
Rainfall, mm

1600

1400

1200

1000

800
26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0
Temperature, ºC
 Early wet-season rainfall vs. early wet-season
mean surface air temperature at Piarco, Trinidad

1200

1100
r = - 0.078
p = 0.529
1000
Rainfall, mm

900

800

700

600

500

400
26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0
Temperature, ºC
Time series plot of annual mean surface air
temperature at Crown Point, Tobago

28.5

28.0
Temperature, ᵒC

27.5

27.0

26.5

26.0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Year
Time series plot of annual rainfall at Crown Point,
Tobago

2500

2000
Rainfall, mm

1500

1000

500

0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Year
 Annual rainfall vs. annual mean surface air
temperature at Crown Point, Tobago

2500

2250
r = 0.175
p = 0.269
2000
Rainfall, mm

1750

1500

1250

1000

750

500
26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5
Temperature, ºC
Dry-season rainfall vs. dry-season mean surface
air temperature at Crown Point, Tobago

600
r = 0.063
p = 0.690
500

400
Rainfall, mm

300

200

100

0
25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5
Temperature, ºC
Wet-season rainfall vs. wet-season mean surface
air temperature at Crown Point, Tobago

2000

1800
r = - 0.016
p = 0.921
1600
Rainfall, mm

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400
26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5
Temperature, ºC
 Early wet-season rainfall vs. early wet-season
surface air temperature at Crown Point, Tobago

900

800
r = 0.062
p = 0.696
700
Rainfall, mm

600

500

400

300

200

100
26.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5
Temperature, ºC
 Conclusions

 No statistically significant relationship exists between

rainfall and surface air temperature in Trinidad and
Tobago.
 Warm years, seasons or sub-seasons are just as likely
to be wet as they are likely to be dry.
 The lack of any statistically significant R-T relationship
casts doubt on computer model projections of
decreasing (or increasing) rainfall in T&T due to the
higher surface air temperatures expected from global
warming.
 Conclusions (cont’d)

 For more realistic projections of climate change in

Trinidad and Tobago due to global warming, there is
need to re-examine how the physical processes linking
rainfall and surface air temperature are represented in
the computer models.
 References

1. GORTT, (2011). National Climate Change Policy for Trinidad and Tobago.
http://www.ema.co.tt/new/images/policies/climate_change_2011.pdf
2. Lauckner, F.B. and M. Jones. (2013). An examination of temperature and rainfall
trends in Trinidad and Tobago from 1970 to 2011. CARDI Review, Issue 13, April,
pp. 21-32.
3. Neelin, J.D. et al. (2006). Tropical drying trends in global warming models and
observations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 103, No. 6,
pp. 6110-6115.
4. Peterson, T.C. et al. (2002). Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean
region. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, 4601, doi:
10.1029/2002JD00251.
5. Singh, B. (1997a). Climate-related global changes in the southern Caribbean:
Trinidad and Tobago. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 15, pp. 93-111.
6. Singh, B. (1997b). Climate changes in the greater and southern Caribbean.
International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 17, No. 10, pp. 1093-1114.

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