CM803- Introduction to Climate Change

Module 1: Physical science

Problem Set-2

Name: Nandini Suresh

Roll No: 204400005

1.Consider a reservoir having steady quantity, with two separate sources P1 and P2 and
a single sink R. The magnitudes of P1 and R and their uncertainties have been estimated
to be 75 ± 20 and 100 ± 30 (PgC yr-1). Assuming that there is no direct way of estimating
P2, how would you derive its magnitude and uncertainty range from budget
considerations?

P1 = 75 ± 20 (PgC yr-1)

R = 100 ± 30 (PgC yr-1)

Assuming steady conditions, P1 + P2 = R

P2 = R- P1 = 100-75 =25
Uncertainty values added = 20+30 = 50
Therefore, P2 = 25 ± 50 (PgC yr-1)

2. The average mixing ratio of sulphur in the troposphere is 1 ppb. Assuming steady state,
the mass of the troposphere is 4 x 1021 g. If natural and anthropogenic sources
contribution to sulphur in the troposphere is 200 x 1012 g yr-1. Estimate the turnover time
of sulphur in the troposphere

Average mixing ratio of sulphur in the troposphere = 1 ppb

Mass of the troposphere = 4 x 1021 g
Sulphur Flux = 200 x 1012 g yr-1
𝑄
Turnover time (𝜏) = 𝑃 (in steady state)
(4 ∗ 1021 )(1 ∗ 10−9 )
= = 0.02 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 = 0.02 ∗ 365 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 7.3 ≅ 𝟕 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔
200 ∗ 1012

3. The global CO2 mixing ratios for the three years are recorded as follows: 280 ppm
(1958), 370 ppm (2000) and 410 ppm (2019). Assuming the emission rate from
anthropogenic activities is ~9.8 PgC yr-1 for the present year (valid for both, 2000 and
2019). Estimate the turnover time for CO2 in 2000 and 2017 using the above data.

Given, Mixing ratio: 1958 – 280 ppm

1990 - 370 ppm
2019 - 410 ppm
Emission rate, P = 9.8 PgC yr-1
 𝑸 𝑑𝑄 𝑃𝑔
𝑻𝒖𝒓𝒏𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓 𝑻𝒊𝒎𝒆(𝜏) = 𝒅𝑸 , where = 3.78 𝑦𝑟 ( 𝐾𝑒𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 & 𝑊ℎ𝑜𝑟𝑓, 2003)
𝑷− 𝑑𝑡
𝒅𝒕

In 2000, Q = 370 – 280 = 90 ppm

90 ppm = 90 * 2.1 = 189 PgC (1 ppm = 2.1 PgC)
P = 9.8 PgC yr -1
189
𝜏= = 31.39 ≅ 𝟑𝟏 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔
9.8 − 3.78

In 2019, Q = 410 – 280 = 130 ppm

130 ppm = 130 * 2.1 = 273 PgC (1 ppm = 2.1 PgC)
P = 9.8 PgC yr-1
273
𝜏= = 45.34 ≅ 𝟒𝟓 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔
9.8 − 3.78

4. Estimate the change in ocean-atmosphere flux of CO2, from warm and cool surface
ocean waters, between pre-industrial times to 1990.

𝑑𝑀/𝑑𝑡=𝐹21−𝐹12+𝐹31−𝐹13

F21= K21M2β2, F12=K12M1, F31= K31M3β3 , F13=K13M1

Pre-Industrial
F12=K12M1 = 0.0931*612 yr-1 = 57 yr-1
F21= K21M2β2 = 58(730- 9.4) * 730 9.4 PgC (1- 9.4) yr-1= 58 PgC (- 8.4) yr-1
F13=K13M1= 0.0311 *612 yr-1 = 19 yr-1
F31= K31M3β3 = 18(140- 10.2) * 140 10.2 PgC (1- 10.2) yr-1= 18 PgC (- 9.2) yr-1
1990
F12=K12M1 = 0.0931*753 yr-1 = 70.1043 yr-1
F21= K21M2β2 = 58(730- 9.4) * 744 9.4 PgC (1- 9.4) yr-1 =69.33 PgC (- 8.4) yr-1
F13=K13M1= 0.0311 *753 yr-1 = 23.4183 yr-1
F31= K31M3β3 = 18(140- 10.2) * 143 10.2 PgC (1- 10.2) yr-1 = 22.345 PgC (- 9.2) yr-1

Change in ocean-atmosphere flux of CO2

∆ F21 = 69.33- 58 = 11.33 PgC (- 8.4) yr-1

∆ F31 = 22.345-18 = 4.345 PgC (- 9.2) yr-1

a. What values of β2 and β3 will you assume for pre-industrial conditions and why?
The β2 and β3 values for pre-industrial conditions are 9.4 and 10.2 respectively which are
positive empirical constants and is given in the compartment model for global carbon
cycle. The reason behind this exception for F21 and F31 is because the exchange
coefficients between compartment is no longer the same from preindustrial times to
present. When CO2 dissolves in water, an equilibrium is established among CO2.H2O,
HCO-3, and CO2-3. So even if F21 and F31 are linearly related to CO2.H2O, they are not
linearly related to total dissolved carbon (M2 and M3). This relationship depends on
seawater temperature and pH (which varies between 7.5 and 8.4). So, this non-linear
relationship is expressed using β2 and β3 for F21 and F31 respectively.
Also, as M2 and M3 increase with more dissolved carbon in the ocean, the fluxes, F21 and
F31 increase so that the net flux from atmosphere to ocean decreases. In this way, the CO2
added to atmosphere taken up ocean decreases with increasing CO2 burden because of
reduced buffer capacity of total dissolved carbon.

b. Did the flux change more from warm ocean waters or from cool ocean waters? Please
offer a physical reason for this.
Change in ocean-atmosphere flux of CO2 in warm water is greater than in cool ocean
waters. This is because cold water can dissolve more carbon dioxide than warm water as
solubility of CO2 increases as temperature decreases. Temperature of ocean also
impacted the biological pump (the process of transporting CO2 to deeper water).

5. The total annual production of cereals in 2015 is 236062 kT. Assuming that out of total
waste production 20%, is used in thatching, 10% used in fodder, 15% used as fuel in
informal industry and the rest is burnt in open field. Calculate the emission of black
carbon from burning of waste after cereal production. Given: Waste to Production ratio
= 1.89, Dry matter fraction = 0.84, Burning efficiency = 0.88 and Emission factor (g/kg)
= 0.55

Annual production (AP)= 236062 Kt

Burning of waste (BW)= 1-(0.2+ 0.1+0.15) =0.55
𝑊𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒
(𝑊𝑃𝑅) = 1.89
Production
Dry matter fraction (DMF) = 0.84
Burning efficiency (BE) = 0.88
Emission factor (EF) (g/kg) = 0.55
Emission of black carbon from burning of waste= AP* WPR* BW* DMF* BE* EF
=236062* 106 * 1.89* 0.55* 0.84* 0.88* 0.55 = 9.97 *1010 g/yr

6. The total end-use energy consumption for cooking is 1803.81 PJ/yr. Assume out of total
population 60% use wood, 30% use LPG and 10% use Biogas for cooking. Calculate the
fuel consumption for each type of fuel and emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC and
OC) using the data given below

E = 1803.81 PJ/yr
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦
𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 =
𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 ∗ 𝐶𝑉

1803.81 ∗ 1015 ∗ 0.60

𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑤𝑜𝑜𝑑 = = 𝟒𝟏. 𝟗 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟖 𝒌𝒈/𝒚𝒓
15.94 ∗ 16.20 ∗ 106
 1803.81 ∗ 1015 ∗ 0.30
𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝐿𝑃𝐺 = = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟓 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟖 𝒌𝒈/𝒚𝒓
57 ∗ 57 ∗ 106
1803.81 ∗ 1015 ∗ 0.10
𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝐵𝑖𝑜𝑔𝑎𝑠 = = 𝟏. 𝟕𝟕𝟓 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟖 𝒌𝒈/𝒚𝒓
57.4 ∗ 17.70 ∗ 106

Emissions
For BC, EBC = FCwood* EF wood,BC + FCLPG* EF LPG,BC + FCBiogas* EF Biogas,BC
= 41.9 ∗ 108 ∗ 0.7 + 1.65 ∗ 108 ∗ 0.01 + 1.775 ∗ 108 ∗ 0.016 = 𝟐𝟗. 𝟑𝟕 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟖 𝒌𝒈/𝒚𝒓

For OC, EOC = FCwood* EF wood,OC + FCLPG* EF LPG,OC + FCBiogas* EF Biogas,OC

= 41.9 ∗ 108 ∗ 1.9 + 1.65 ∗ 108 ∗ 0.052 + 1.775 ∗ 108 ∗ 0.085 = 𝟕𝟗. 𝟖𝟒 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟖 𝒌𝒈/𝒚𝒓

Six-compartment Model for CO2

The CO2 six-compartment model MATLAB codes have been provided in the folder
“codes_and_data”. It has codes IO_model.m and model_eqns.m. Use the input file
input_6comp.xlsx as an input. Enter only those fields that you want to change and leave the
rest untouched when generating different scenarios. Shown below is the base case scenario
as generated by taking default values from Seinfeld and Pandis (2006). Save the output in
*.jpg format and compare with the observed concentration and comment on the results.

i.) No fossil fuel emission

The figure shows that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is exponentially increasing over
the period even with zero fossil fuel emissions. In the base scenario model generated as per
Seinfield and Pandis (2006) default values, the compartment model’s CO2 concentration
intersects the model in 2000 at 380 ppm. However, when we assume that there is no fossil
fuel emission, it intersects in 1890 only at 290-295 ppm. It shows that without fossil fuel
burning the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is less.

ii.) Constant fossil fuel emission = 0.52 PgC yr-1

The figure shows that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is exponentially increasing over
the period even with zero fossil fuel emissions. In the base scenario model generated as per
Seinfield and Pandis (2006) default values, the compartment model’s CO2 concentration
intersects the model in 2000 at 380 ppm. However, when we assume that there is constant
fossil fuel emission of 0.52 PgC yr-1, it intersects in 1940 at 305-310 ppm. It shows that fossil
fuel burning increases the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.