CM803- Introduction to Climate Change

Module 1: Physical science

Problem Set-1
(Submission due: 6th August, 2021)

Question 1. The future temperature is projected using different models with different scenarios (RCP 4.5,
RCP 8.5 etc.). These models show variability in projected temperature. There is an excel file attached that
has model temperature output of 10 different models with RCP4.5 scenario from 1800-2100 (monthly
values). The file also contains HadCRUT observed temperature data. Using the given data set
(PS1_2019_data.xlsx):
i. For the years 1861-1978, generate a model-ensemble mean temperature trend. Is the trend
significantly different from that of HadCRUT observations?

ii. Do hot temperature extremes occur at similar likelihoods in the model ensemble and observational
datasets?

iii. For the year 2030, what is the likelihood of modelled global mean temperature exceeding 280 K, 289
K?

iv. One of the aims of COP21 is to keep the global temperature rise well below 2oC, in 2100, above pre-
industrial levels. The 1861-1900 average temperature, can be used as pre-industrial level
temperature. Comment on the feasibility of this goal and provide your reasoning behind the comment

Question 2. Show that 1 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere corresponds to 2.1 Pg carbon and therefore calculate
mass for the current atmospheric level measured at Mauna Loa Observatory (410ppm)
(https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/).

Question 3. Assuming the tropospheric background mixing ratio of 50 ppbv at P = 1atm and T = 298K
determine the following:
i. Mixing ratio in ppb by weight
ii. Total mass of O3 in the atmosphere
iii. Concentration in μg m-3
iv. Concentration in molecules m-3
v. Using the above, calculate the tropospheric burden of O3 in Dobson units (assume a tropospheric
height of 10km, 1 DU = 2.687 × 1020 molecules m-2). Compare this to the total atmospheric burden
of O3 (NASA uses a baseline value of 220 DU for ozone).
Question 4. Estimate the scale height of the atmosphere (H) and resulting pressure at z=200 m altitude if
the air is dry, the pressure at z =100 m is pd = 990 hPa, and the average temperature between z = 100 m and
z = 200 m is T=284K.

Comprehensive Problem -1

Seasonal and annual rainfall (in mm) average for the whole country starting from 1901 onwards is
provided in the file “PS1_CP1_rainfall_data.csv”. This data set is based on more than 2000 rain-
gauge data spread over the country.
1. Calculate means and standard deviations of seasonal rainfall % contributions to the total
rainfall? Prepare a box-showing contributions of different seasons.
2. Using the provided data plot the time series of total rainfall and also show the trend line
for the data. Perform calculations to show whether this trend is significant or not.
3. Do you see multiple trend or single trend in the data? If multiple trends identify the periods
for which you observe a shift in rainfall. Plot the trend lines for the two time periods.
4. Prepare a box-plot of the data from the two time periods, do they seem significantly
different?
5. If multiple trends are observed, then calculate the mean slope for each trend and test if both
the trends are significantly different from each other.