CM803- Introduction to Climate Change

Module 1: Physical science

Problem Set-1

Name: Nandini Suresh

Roll No: 204400005

1.i. For the years 1861-1978, generate a model-ensemble mean temperature trend. Is
the trend significantly different from that of HadCRUT observations?

Model Ensemble Mean Temperature Trend from 1861-1978

Trend Analysis of Model K and HadCRUT from

1861-1978
16

14 y = 0.0031t + 13.554
TEMPERATURE IN CELSIUS

12

10

6 y = 0.0039t + 7.4119

0
1901

1933

1977
1861
1865
1869
1873
1877
1881
1885
1889
1893
1897

1905
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929

1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973

YEAR

Model K HadCRUT Linear (Model K) Linear (HadCRUT)

H0: there is no significant difference in trend

H1: there is significant difference in trend
(118 − 1) ∗ 0.192 + (118 − 1) ∗ 0.162
𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = = 0.179
116

(13.72 − 7.64)
𝑡= = 259.79
1 1 1/2
0.179 ∗ ( + )
118 118

The t value calculated is, t= 259.79. The trend will be statistically different as the ttab
(from t-table) for df= 116 is 1.984 at 95%, 2.626 at 99%, 3.39 at 99.9% confidence. Since,
texp> ttab, the null hypothesis is rejected, H0 i.e., there is a significant difference between
them, with greater than 99.9% level of confidence.

(ii.) Do hot temperature extremes occur at similar likelihoods in the model ensemble and
observational datasets?

H0: Hot temperature occur

H1: Hot temperature do not occur
For the model ensemble the hottest temperature is assumed as 284K and the average
temperature over the years 1861-2100 is 281.92K and the standard deviation is
1.335619. When tested for z test for the mean temperature being less than the hottest
temperature, the p value is 0.089 (>0.05), thus null hypothesis is rejected and the
possibility that the hot temperature will occur is very unlikely.
In case of observational dataset, the hottest temperature is assumed as 288K and the
average temperature over the years 1861-2100 is 287.0173K and the standard deviation
is 0.28671. When tested for z test for the mean temperature being less than the hottest
temperature, the p value is 0.0009668 (<0.05), thus null hypothesis is not rejected and
the possibility that the hot temperature will occur is very likely.
(iii.) For the year 2030, what is the likelihood of modelled global mean temperature
exceeding 280 K, 289 K?

Population Sample
Mean(X) Mean(X_bar) Std Dev (s) T expected p 1-2p
0.001
280 282.7686 0.655431263 -4.22408902 (4.297) 0.998

289 282.7686 0.655431263 9.507328004 < 0.0005 0.999

In the year 2030, the modelled global mean temperature as per Model K is 282.7686K
and the standard deviation is 0.655.

CASE 1. H0: Mean = 280

H1: Mean > 280
When estimated with t test for the global temperature being less than 280 K, the p value
obtained is 0.002 (< 0.05). This p-value is very less and thus, the null hypothesis is
rejected. Thus, the likelihood of global mean temperature exceeding 280 K is virtually
certain (almost 100%).

CASE 2. H0: Mean = 289

H1: Mean < 289
Similarly, with the hypothesis that the temperature for the year 2030 will be less than
289K, we get p-value as < 0.001(<0.05), thus null hypothesis is rejected and the
possibility that the temperature will be less that 289K is virtually certain (almost 100%).
(iv.) One of the aims of COP21 is to keep the global temperature rise well below 2oC, in
2100, above pre-industrial levels. The 1861-1900 average temperature can be used as
pre-industrial level temperature. Comment on the feasibility of this goal and provide your
reasoning behind the comment

The feasibility of attaining the global temperature rise well below 2oC in 2100 above pre-
industrial level is not possible. This is because as per Model K, the average temperature
during the assumed pre-industrial level (1861-1900) is 7.50oC while the average
temperature in 2100 is 11.12oC. The average temperature has increased by 3.62oC which
means as per this model the feasibility of COP21 goal will fail.

2. Show that 1 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere corresponds to 2.1 Pg carbon and
therefore calculate mass for the current atmospheric level measured at
Mauna Loa Observatory (410 ppm)
1 Pg= 1015 g= 1012 kg
Mass of atmosphere = 5.1480 ∗ 1018 kg = 5.1480 ∗ 1021 g
Molar mass of air = 28.966 g/ mole
5.1480 ∗ 1021 g
Moles of air in atmosphere = = 1.7773 ∗ 1020
28.966

Moles of air in atmosphere 1.7773 ∗ 1020

Moles fraction of air = =
Volume 1000000
= 1.7773 ∗ 1014 moles of air

Molecular mass of CO2 = 12 + 16+ 16= 44 g/ mole

1ppm of CO2 = 1.7773 * 1014 * 44 g/ mole
= 7.822 x 1015 g = 7.822 Pg of CO2

Therefore, 1ppm of CO2 = 1.7773 * 1014 * 12 g/ mole

= 2. 134 Pg of carbon

The Mauna Loa site measured 410 ppm of carbon dioxide, which equates to
=410* 1.7773 * 1014 moles of CO2
= 7.28693 * 1016 moles of CO2
= 7.28693 * 1016 * 12.01 = 8.75 Pg of CO2

3.Given,
Tropospheric background mixing ratio of 50 ppbv at P = 1atm= 101325
pascal and T = 298K

i. Mixing ratio in ppb by weight

Molecular mass of O3 = 16+ 16+ 16= 48 g/ mole

Mass of air molecule, Mair= 28.97 g mol-1
Mixing ratio in ppb by weight = 50* (48/28.97) = 82.84 ppb
 ii. Total mass of O3 in the atmosphere

Mass of atmoshpere = 4πρ0 R2e H

Estimated Mass of atmoshpere = 4 ∗ 3.14 ∗ 1.23 ∗ 64002 ∗ 7.4 = 4.7 ∗ 1018 kg

48
Total mass of O3 in atmosphere = 4.7 ∗ 1018 ∗ 1000 ∗ ∗ 50 ∗ 10−9
28.97
= 𝟑. 𝟖𝟗 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟏𝟒 𝑷𝒈 𝒐𝒇 𝑶𝟑

iii. Concentration in μg m-3

8.314 ∗ T
Mixing ratio of 𝑖 in ppm = ∗ concentration of 𝑖 in μg m−3
P Mi

8.314 ∗ 298
50 ∗ 103 = ∗ concentration of i in μg m−3
101325 ∗ 48
2477.572
= 4863600 ∗ concentration of i in μg m−3
𝟐𝟒𝟑𝟏𝟖𝟎
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝟑 = 𝟐𝟒𝟕𝟕.𝟓𝟕𝟐 = 𝟗𝟖. 𝟏𝟓 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟓 µ𝒈 𝒎−𝟑

iv. Concentration in molecules m-3

Ci
Mixing ratio =
P/RT
Ci
50 ∗ 10−9 =
101325/(8.314 ∗ 298)
50∗10−9 ∗ 101325
Ci = = 𝟐. 𝟎𝟒𝟒 ∗ 𝟏𝟎−𝟔 𝐦𝐨𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐦−𝟑
2477.572

v. Using the above, calculate the tropospheric burden of O3 in Dobson units

(assume a tropospheric height of 10km, 1 DU = 2.687 × 1020 molecules m-2).
Compare this to the total atmospheric burden of O3 (NASA uses a baseline
value of 220 DU for ozone).

1 DU = 2.6867 * 1020 molecules m-2

2.044 ∗ 10−7
2.044 ∗ 10−7 molecules m−2 = = 7.606 ∗ 1012 𝐷𝑈
2.6867 ∗ 1020
Tropospheric burden of O3 = h ∗ Conct. in DU = 10000 ∗ 7.606 ∗ 1012 = 𝟕𝟔. 𝟎𝟔 𝑫𝑼
At the tropospheric height of 10km, the tropospheric burden of O3 is 76.06 DU which
constitutes only 3.4 % of the total atmospheric burden of O3 of 220 DU
4. Estimate the scale height of the atmosphere (H) and resulting pressure at
z=200 m altitude if the air is dry, the pressure at z =100 m is pd = 990 hPa,
and the average temperature between z = 100 m and z = 200 m is
T=284K.
Given, z= 200m, Pz(ref) =100m = 990hPa, T= 284K
RT
Scalar Height =
Mair g
where,
Gas Constant, R= 8.3145 J/mol K
Effective gravity at surface of earth, g = 9.8072ms-2
Mass of air molecule, Mair= 28.97 g mol-1
8.3145∗284
So, H = 28.97∗9.8072 = 𝟖. 𝟑𝟏𝟐 𝐤𝐦

Pressure at altitude, Pz = Pz(ref) e-(z-z(ref))/H

So, Pressure at 200m altitude, P (0.2) = P (0.1) e (-0.2 +0.1)/8.312
= 990hPa *e-0.0120
= 978. 158 hPa
Comprehensive Problem
1.Calculate means and standard deviations of seasonal rainfall % contributions to the
total rainfall? Prepare a box-showing contributions of different seasons.

Mar-May Jun-Sep Oct-Dec

Mean 10.90% 75.37% 10.29%
Std Deviation 0.018328456 0.029316 0.024222202

Box Plot- Contributions of Different Seasons

0.1500000

0.1000000

0.0500000

0.0000000
Mar-May Oct-Dec
2. Using the provided data plot the time series of total rainfall and also show the trend
line for the data. Perform calculations to show whether this trend is significant or not.

Time Series Plot of Annual Rainfall from 1901-2013

y = -0.1047t + 1183.5
1500

1400
Annual Rainfall (mm)

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Time(t)

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 1183.451391 20.23278082 58.49178 3.04381E-85
t -0.104720873 0.308081662 -0.33991 0.734564625

In the above table, p value of the slope shows that the trend is not significant at 95%
confidence level while the intercept is significant.
3. Do you see multiple trend or single trend in the data? If multiple trends identify the
periods for which you observe a shift in rainfall. Plot the trend lines for the two time
periods.
In the rainfall data from 1901-2013, we could see a multiple trend. From 1901-1960,
there is a positive trend in rainfall while from 1961-2013, the data shows a negative
trend in the rainfall pattern. (See fig)
 Trends in Annual Rainfall from 1901-60 & 1961-2013
1600
1400
Annual Rainfall (mm)

1200
1000
1901-1960 (y1)
800
1961-2013(y2)
600
400 Linear (1901-1960 (y1))

200 Linear (1961-2013(y2))

0 y(1) = 2.869t + 1105
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 y(2)= -1.0662t + 1253.2
Time(t)

4. Prepare a boxplot of the data from the two time periods, do they seem significantly
different?

Box Plot for Multiple Trends

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1901-60 1961-2013

They do not seem significantly different from each other. The median values are closer.
It also shows that the annual rainfall was maximum during 1901-60
5. If multiple trends are observed, then calculate the mean slope for each trend and test
if both the trends are significantly different from each other.

Time Mean Slope Std. error N

1901-60 2.868983051 0.7138278 60
1961-2013 -1.066231253 0.9282843 53

(60 − 1) ∗ 0.712 + (53 − 1) ∗ 0.932

𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = = 0.67452679
111
 (2.868983051 − (−1.066231253))
𝑡= = 30.9487723
1 1 1/2
0.67452679 ∗ ( + )
60 53
H0: there is no significant difference in trend
H1: there is significant difference in trend

ttab (from t-table) for df= 111 is 1.984 at 95%, 2.626 at 99%, 3.39 at 99.9% confidence.
Since, texp> ttab, the null hypothesis is rejected, i.e., there is a significant difference
between them, with greater than 99.9% level of confidence.