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ignalling a revival of the political process in Jammu designed to contain both China doubtful. India has been searching Moscow as it will help it steer ties
and Kashmir, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has and Russia. for other major powers to balance among the great powers. and also
R
decided to meet 14 party leaders from the Union ussian President Vladimir Obviously, India thinks other against China as it does not have diminish Moscow’s propensity to
Putin has recently asserted wise since Russia’s simplistic ad the sufficient means for hard ba closely coordinate its South Asian
Territory on June 24. Mr. Modi’s outreach is taking
that both the Indian Prime vice is not sagacious enough to Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) lancing. Adding options to its sta policies with Beijing.
place nearly two years after the State of Jammu and Minister, Narendra Modi, and the solve its China problem. India’s Ex was a period of great turbulence in tecraft toolbox, India has dee
Kashmir was stripped of its special constitutional status Chinese President, Xi Jinping, are ternal Affairs Minister, S. Jaishan global politics. A bewildered India pened its ties with Japan and India-China ties
and dismembered into two Union Territories through “responsible” enough to solve is kar, in a virtual discussion with his soon realised Russia was much Australia in a way that is close to There is no doubt that shared
an unprecedented exercise of the Centre’s powers. This sues between their countries, Australian and French counter weaker than the erstwhile USSR soft balancing. Nevertheless, identities and beliefs in the princi
demonstrates a desirable flexibility in his approach to while underlining the need to de parts, had recently asserted that and incapable of helping New Del among all of India’s balancing ef ple of nonalignment, painful me
wards resolving the Kashmir issue. Considering the ab bar any “extraregional power” to no country can have a veto on In hi balance potential threats from forts, the stupendous growth in mories of colonial subjugation, op
interfere in the process. The impli dia’s participation in the Quad Beijing. This does not mean that ties with the U.S. has been the position to greatpower
sence of an agenda for the meeting and the prevailing
cations of Mr. Putin’s advice for In (https://bit.ly/3cXDDaV). This as India completely abandoned ex greatest source of concern for Chi hegemony, and strong beliefs in
sense of betrayal among Kashmiris, any hope of a quick dia are numerous and farreaching sertion was an indirect counter ternal balancing strategies; it be na which views the IndiaU.S. rap sovereignty and strategic autono
resolution to the frozen political questions is not realis as Moscow expects New Delhi to poise to what Mr. Lavrov had gan to diversify its sources of ex prochement as containment. my have been the key influencers
tic. Discontinuing the special status of Kashmir was a ignominiously give up all efforts to termed the Quad — as “Asian NA ternal balancing. On the other While India needs Russia’s part in shaping India’s and China’s en
core agenda of Hindutva nationalism for decades, reverse Beijing’s encroachment TO”. In an unmistakable indica hand, Russia began to cast Mos nership for its defence needs, New gagement with each other as well
which was achieved after the second parliamentary vic strategies. The Russians may have tion of India’s attempt to reima cow as the leader of a supposed Delhi cannot endorse the Russian as the western world. But this has
tory of Mr. Modi in 2019. There has been a concerted their reasons to remain blind to gine a new geostrategic maritime trilateral grouping of RussiaIndia perspective on the IndoPacific begun to change as Beijing is as
campaign to undermine political parties and leaders of China’s growing aggressiveness, role for itself, Mr. Jaishankar had China against a U.S.led unipolar and the Quad. For New Delhi, it serting its hegemony over Asia. In
but the Indians have learned to ex further observed that incorpora world. would be selfdefeating to accept such circumstances, multilateral
the Valley by the BJP and the Centre. Since 2014, the BJP
pect at Chinese hands an unremit tion of the IndoPacific concept in Leaving behind the bitterness that the IndoPacific is an Ameri forums such as the RussiaIndia
has worked under a premise that the PDP and NC were ting effort to undermine India’s Indian diplomacy means that In and mistrust between Moscow can construct. With the firstever China (RIC) grouping and BRICS
impediments, not facilitators, to a solution in Kashmir. global position — to destroy their dia can no longer be confined bet and Beijing during the Cold War, summit of the four leaders in the (Brazil, Russia, India, China and
The BJP’s shortlived alliance with PDP, far from build confidence in themselves and the ween the Malacca Strait and Gulf Russia became an early proponent ‘Quadrilateral framework’ in South Africa) have little practical
ing bridges, created more hostility between the parties confidence of others in them — of Aden. of the ‘strategic triangle’ to bring March this year, the Quad is being value for Indian diplomacy. With
and delegitimised both in the eyes of the public. The and to reduce India to a state of Though the recent diplomatic together the three major powers. formalised into a functional stra out China’s reciprocity, options
leaders of mainstream parties, including former Chief isolation and impotence in global romance between Russia and Pa Aware of the emerging interna tegic alignment. before India are limited. India’s
affairs. kistan has generated some unease tional system as an expression of concessions, whatever their form,
Ministers, were jailed after 2019. The Centre’s idea to in
in India, it is Russia’s uncritical ad western expansion, India’s fear of Maritime structures must meet with some form of pos
cubate a loyal political class made little progress. The Quad factor vocacy of China’s global vision the unipolar moment too made it The real ‘strategic triangle’ in the itive response from China. The res
The political environment has changed, meanwhile. Mr. Putin’s remarks can only be that seems to have left New Delhi easier for New Delhi to become maritime domain will be that bet ponse cannot be just symbolic or
The Joe Biden administration is eager to end the U.S. seen as reinforcing China’s claim overly confounded. For many pol part of this initiative. But China’s ween New Delhi, Washington and rhetorical. The absence of any ma
entanglement in Afghanistan and resist China’s at that the Quadrilateral or Quad icymakers and people in our coun dismissive attitude toward Indian Beijing. While other powers such terial evidence of reciprocity is
tempts to dominate the world. India is in a standoff (comprising India, the United try, the Russian attitude toward capabilities, coupled with an as France, Australia, Japan and bound to doom an attempt at Sino
with China on the border. The Biden administration is States, Japan and Australia) is China’s growing power and in emerging ChinaPakistan nexus, Russia will have an impact on the Indian rapprochement.
aimed at containing Beijing’s in fluence will be the touchstone of prevented the success of this trilat emerging maritime structures of Beijing seems to be acting as
publicly disapproving of India’s Kashmir policy, while
fluence in the IndoPacific region. Russia’s relations with India. eral. India, instead, invested its di the IndoPacific region, it is the though it is immune not only to
wanting to strategically embrace it. Pakistan is trying to In fact, Mr. Putin’s assertion is the While the SinoIndian relationship plomatic energies in rapproche triangular dynamic between In the strategic consequences for its
reclaim its strategic advantage. The mishandling of the logical extension of views ex has experienced a sharp down ment with the United States. dia, China and the U.S. that is go actions but also to all the conven
COVID19 pandemic has dented India’s global image pressed by Russia’s Ambassador to ward trend since the Galwan clash Unlike Russia, which tried to ing to be the most consequential. tional rules of international polit
and triggered new political challenges domestically. All India, Nikolay Kudashev. Some es in June 2020, New Delhi has be build an alternative international Russia is yet to realise that it will ics. China is undoubtedly the most
these make rigidity less rewarding in India’s Kashmir time ago, he had advised New Del come particularly concerned with economic architecture, India de gain immensely from the multilat powerful actor in its neighbour
policy. All the same, by creating an opportunity to ex hi to take a “larger look at Chinese Moscow downplaying China’s dis cided to get integrated in the eco eralism that the IndoPacific seeks hood but it cannot simply have its
foreign policies”, while describing play of coercive military pressure nomic order it once denounced. to promote, and being China’s ju way in shaping Asia’s new geopol
plore a way forward, the Centre has acted wisely, re
the IndoPacific strategy as an ef against India. With the catastroph Economic liberalisation also al nior partner only undermines itics. Beijing’s policies will still be
gardless of its reasons. It must engage the political par fort to revive the Cold War mental ic rise of populist nationalism lowed New Delhi to buy sophisti Moscow’s greatpower ambitions. constrained and altered in funda
ties in good faith and with an open mind. Kashmir’s ity (https://bit.ly/3gL0VBY). Rus amidst the bankruptcy of globali cated weapons from a wider glo But the Putin regime is making mental ways by India which can
governance challenges are not managerial, and corrup sia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey sation, the resolution of the Sino bal market that included suppliers things unnecessarily hard for Rus not be expected to adopt a hope
tion investigations, legitimate as they may be, must not Lavrov, has frequently, and quite Indian boundary dispute appears such as Israel and France. Both sia as well as for India; and it is less stance of remaining
be used to debase politics itself. Efforts to tackle corrup acerbically, lashed out at the a hopeless dream in the absence of were keen to sell weapons technol clear that those responsible for peripheral in its own strategic
tion and pilferage should not amount to furthering in Quad. a miracle. India is confronted in ogy to India, and this also boosted Russian policy have arrived at a backyard.
Notwithstanding the cataclys Ladakh with a situation far uglier New Delhi’s bargaining capacity flawed assessment of the current
stability in J&K. The Centre appears to have done some
mic changes in the global and re and more recalcitrant than is gen with Moscow. As the logic of inten situation. As the Kremlin’s policy Vinay Kaura is Assistant Professor in the
groundwork, though it has not revealed any plans yet. gional politicosecurity environ erally recognised. sive engagement with the West makers are obsessively preoccu Department of International Affairs and
The meeting must be a beginning towards a durable ment, India has been able to was effectively established, stra pied with Russia’s ‘status’ rivalry Security Studies, Sardar Patel University
and democratic resolution of the Kashmir question and maintain amicable ties with Rus Beginnings of looking West tegic partnership with the U.S. was with the U.S., Russia’s view of In of Police, Security and Criminal Justice,
not an exercise in managing the Centre’s image. sia. Yet, Russia’s continued criti It need not be necessary to remind a logical corollary. diaChina relations seems under Jodhpur, Rajasthan. He is also a
cism of the IndoPacific and the us again that the decade following India’s cooperation with the standable. But there is an inherent Nonresident Scholar at the Middle East
Quad give ample evidence of the the disintegration of the Union of U.S. has strengthened still further, danger in permitting it to harden Institute, Washington DC
The rise of Raisi
The new President should use his clout to
push for economic, political reforms in Iran In Kerala, the need to budget for the future
W
ith the election of Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline
cleric, as Iran’s President, the Islamic Repu
Beyond the pandemic, there are structural issues the State has to address concerning livelihoods and employment
blic’s ruling clergy have tightened their grip er scheme would be a rescue line ployment chances. But the notion the 1990s driven by the services,
on all institutions of power — the military, Parliament, for the poor and the vulnerable. that skill is static and once ac the traditional industries and agri
the judiciary, and the presidency. In Iran’s unique polit Such an infusion will also stimu quired, the worker is employable culture sectors remained stag
ical system, effectively controlled by the Supreme Lead late the economy by boosting con is misplaced. Skill is dynamic, es nant. These traditional agrobased
sumption demand. pecially in the knowledge econo industries are now competing in
er, Presidents, who run the daytoday affairs, have an
my. The skill requirements are the global markets with not only
important role to play. In the past, the country had seen Vinoj Abraham High unemployment continuously being redefined. The competitor firms but even substi
tensions between moderate/reformist Presidents and Beyond the immediate crisis, Ker knowledge economy is distin tute products — for instance, coir
the Supreme Leader. While the reformists, a powerful ala is undergoing a transformation guished by its ability to innovate in with its plastic variant. Many such
THULASI KAKKAT
K
constituency, have pushed for gradual reforms by rally erala, under duress from the grappling with structural issues. short time spans. industries, such as cashew, are
ing behind leaders like Mohammad Khatami and Has novel coronavirus pandem For decades, the State has record As innovations take place, the either moving out from Kerala or
san Rouhani, the conservatives always pushed back. In ic, is passing through a re ed one of the highest open unem skill requirements also evolve. For are being out competed in export
cessionary phase, shrinking by ployment rates in India — around firms to remain competitive in the markets. Having joined these sec
this tussle for power, Mr. Raisi has been the popular
about 3.8% during 201920. Dis 10%. Further, the labour force ar Knowledge economy knowledge economy, they must tors at an early age and worked
face of the establishment for years. He had contested ease containment measures, in guably suffers from the problem of This Budget’s focus on tackling un recognise skill obsolescence and throughout their lives, workers in
the 2017 presidential elections, but lost to Mr. Rouhani, cluding intermittent lockdowns, ‘employability’, alluding to poor employment is through the know reskill their workers. In fact, life these sectors are trapped in these
who was seeking a second term. Believed to be close to have stalled the livelihoods of ma skills and incompetence. ledge economy mission, initiated long learning is a wellknown fea ‘sunset’ industries, surviving on
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mr. Raisi was appointed ny, probably the entire 66% of the With the youth bulge in Kerala’s by the outgoing Government. With ture of the knowledge economy. subsistence incomes and welfare
the Chief Justice in 2019, which kept him in the top workforce who are either selfem age structure, a large share of the Kerala’s reasonably high levels of Under such circumstances, firms support. With shrinking incomes
echelons of power till the presidential elections. There ployed or casual labourers. The population entered the labour an educated workforce, global ex would want to reduce this com and no alternative employment,
Centre for Monitoring Indian Eco force. This coincided with the posure and its fragile ecosystem, a plex phenomenon into a deficien these households are being driven
were allegations that the June 18 election was rigged in
nomy (CMIE) estimates Kerala’s structural transformation of the globallylinked knowledgebased cy in workers, labelling it as poor to penury. The State must devise
favour of Mr. Raisi even before the first ballot was cast. unemployment rate at a high of economy, i.e., the share of output economy has the potential for eco ‘employability’ and arguing it as mechanisms to survive their lives
The Guardian Council, which vets potential candidates, 23.5% for May 2021. The extent of shifting from agriculture to logically sustainable high econom State failure in skilling. In fact, with dignity.
had rejected almost all major reformists, leaving him wage loss is uncertain, though service. ic growth. However, upon close what labour market participants Small and marginal farmers,
the only prominent figure on the ballot. This led to op primary surveys indicate substan However, this large rise in the reading, it seems that the mission lack is the skill requirements that and petty service providers suffer
position activists calling for an election boycott, which tial wage reduction. labour force could not be ab addresses the wrong side of the are ever changing in firms. Firms from poor incomes despite their
seems to have had an impact on the voting — the tur sorbed in the emerging sectors problem. Instead of enhancing are best placed to know what skills efforts, a form of underemploy
The pandemic and welfare that were less labour intensive production in the knowledge are needed, and not the State. ment. Effective interventions can
nout was 48.8%, an alltime low. Mr. Raisi won 62% of
Social priorities for financial plan causing structural unemploy based economy, it envisages to in Firms are best placed to train the encourage collectivisation to over
the vote, while blank ballots came second at 14%. ning under such a crisis must ap ment. The economy now needed crease the supply of skilled work workers, not the State. Firms are come sizerelated diseconomies.
Mr. Raisi is a controversial figure. The U.S. has ac pear straightforward. The Budget to grow at faster rates to absorb ers, through skilling programmes the prime gainers in skill training, New forms of collectives such as
cused him of serving in the “death commission” of 1989 of the newly elected government the new entrants. Concurrently, and matching demand and supply. not the public. The Government Kudumbasree and the new initia
that implemented Ayatollah Khomeini’s secret decree of Kerala presented by Finance Mi high reservation wages owing to The fundamental problem is not could at best facilitate producers tive of the Cooperative Initiative
to execute thousands of political prisoners. At home, he nister K.N. Balagopal weighed the international remittances, institu of labour market mismatch or sup to undertake skill training. The in for Agriculture Infrastructure in
has presided over a harsh campaign against “corrup priorities right, keeping the pan tional wage setting and the State’s ply of educated workforce, but novative German programme on Kerala (CAIK), are encouraging.
tion”, which critics say had targeted political rivals. And demic in focus. The free vaccina welfare programmes implied that that of poor labour demand. skilling can inform us. Nevertheless, history must guide
tion policy, despite a drastic de jobseekers sought jobs with de The above view is often coun us to steer clear of the cooperative
he assumes the presidency at a time when Iran is facing
cline in public revenue by 18%, cent wages as well. Low wage sec tered by the argument that poor State of traditional industries failures in the past, marred by
daunting challenges. The revolution seems to be ageing positions the Government as one tors are filled with interState mi labour demand is due to poor em Meanwhile, industrial transforma poor incentive structures, rent
— the country has seen protests in recent years; the that prioritises its people. Unem grant workers, remaining ployability. Part of the knowledge tion has pushed many into fric seeking and political intervention.
push to reform the system from within, a longtime pro ployment and employability find unattractive to the locals. Open economy frame is to improve ‘em tional unemployment, due to their
mise of the reformists, has not made much progress mention early in the Budget reiter unemployment is thus a problem ployability’ by improving skills inability to move from one sector Vinoj Abraham is Professor, Centre for
and the economy is in a shambles. When Mr. Rouhani ating its inclinations. Setting aside of economic growth and and skill certification. Improved to another. Even while Kerala en Development Studies,
won the presidency in 2013, he promised a new begin ₹8,900 crore for an income transf distribution. skills may enhance immediate em tered a highgrowth trajectory in Thiruvananthapuram
ning. But his attempts to open a new chapter with the
West through diplomacy were set back by Donald LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to letters@thehindu.co.in must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.
Trump, and his policies at home were resisted by the
conservatives. Mr. Raisi, who has supported reviving Hope for J&K ensures peaceful Milkha Singh gold in the 2008 Olympics. ■ As a youngster, I had once
To read more letters
online, scan the QR code
the nuclear deal, might also bank on sanctions being re Jammu and Kashmir, famed coexistence and a The words of the legendary Given the huge chasm watched Milkha Singh during
moved to reboot the economy. And there is growing dis for its beauty, and now lost troublefree livelihoods Milkha Singh, “God wanted between the facilities his practice sessions at the Even though he was made to
content in society and desperate calls for reforms and peace, has become a (“Centre invites 14 J&K me to play a part in available to the athletes of Army regimental centre in stand way behind the start
liberties. For now, Iran’s tactical response to these chal hotbed of violence due to a leaders to meet PM Modi bringing glory to India...”, 1958 and now, Milkha Secunderabad; he was line, he whizzed past the
raft of reasons. Its woes next week”, June 20) with a are touching. The Singh’s feats evoke awe. already a household name. others in seconds. The sight
lenges is repression. Mr. Raisi, as President, should un
have been compounded by sincere and transparent photograph of the ‘Flying The fact that the legend was My father was posted in the of the great Milkha Singh
derstand that repression will not solve any of Iran’s pro political instability and process of the restoration of Sikh’ romping home to a a stickler for discipline and regiment and told me that running like the wind will
blems. A member of the clerical establishment, he restrictions affecting the Statehood, that includes gold in the 440yard race in fitness is a good lesson to the lean, wiry Sardar was remain etched in my
should use his clout and the election victory to push for basic rights of the people. fair elections, fast tracked. Cardiff, 1958 (‘Sport’ page, aspiring athletes in India. none other than the great memory.
gradual economic and political reforms. The citizens of J&K now V. Johan Dhanakumar, June 20) is reminiscent of S. Sanjeevi Rao, man himself. A detail that I V. Nagarajan,
deserve a new life that Chennai Usain Bolt’s finish for the Puducherry will never ever forget is this. Chennai
CM M CH-CHE
YK