Accepted Manuscript Not Copyedited: Sizing of A PV-wind-oil Shale Hybrid System: Case Analysis in Jordan

Journal of Solar Energy Engineering: Including Wind Energy and Building Energy Conservation.
Received April 02, 2017;

Accepted manuscript posted September 29, 2017. doi:10.1115/1.4038048
Copyright (c) 2017 by ASME
Journal of Solar Engineering
Sizing of a PV-wind-oil shale hybrid system: Case analysis in Jordan
Loiy AL-Ghussain1
Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems,
Middle East Technical University Northern Cyprus Campus, Kalkanli, Guzelyurt via
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Mersin 10, 99738, Turkey
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Email: loui.essam@hotmail.com
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Onur Taylan
Assistant Professor, Mechanical Engineering Program,
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Email: ontaylan@metu.edu.tr
Murat Fahrioglu
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Associate Professor, Electrical and Electronics Engineering Program,
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Email: fmurat@metu.edu.tr
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Abstract
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The integration between renewable energy systems and oil shale system ensures reliable
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power generation source with a competitive energy generation cost when compared to
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costs of conventional systems. In addition, this integration will prevent considerable

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amount of CO2 emissions. This study aims to determine the size of a grid-tied hybrid
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system in Al-Tafilah, Jordan that maximizes the yearly overall fraction of demand met
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with Levelized Cost of Electricity equal to or lower than the local cost of electricity
generation. In addition, the effect of the integration of Lithium-Ion batteries as short-term
1
Corresponding Author
1
SOL-17-1118 Al-Ghussain
Downloaded From: http://solarenergyengineering.asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/ on 10/05/2017 Terms of Use: http://www.asme.org/about-asme/terms-of-use

Journal of Solar Energy Engineering: Including Wind Energy and Building Energy Conservation. Received April 02, 2017;
energy storage systems will be investigated in addition to the effect of carbon social cost
on the economics of the system. The maximum FH by the hybrid system in Al-Tafilah is
97.2% with ESS and 96.9% without ESS where 70.4% of the demand is met by the 12
MW oil shale system; however, to achieve these fractions enormous installed capacity of
d
PV and wind is required where 99% of the energy production is excess and LCOE is larger
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than COEcon . The maximum FH can be achieved with LCOE equals to COEcon is 87.2%
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by 12 MW oil shale, 3.5 MW PV and 6 MW wind turbines without ESS. Such size will
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have capacity factor of 46.1%, RES fraction of 16.9%, net present value of 34.8 million
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USD and a payback period of 4.8 years.
Keywords: Hybrid systems, oil shale, solar, wind, energy economics, energy security
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1. Introduction
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Global warming and energy security are currently the most important issues for the
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entire world. The enormous increase in the energy demand due to the high population
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growth and the sharp increase in the conventional primary energy prices forced the world
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to seek for cheap and clean alternative energy resources [1]. Solar and wind energy are
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clean energy resources; however, they are intermittent which requires an integration with
energy storage systems or reliable energy generation systems such as; conventional power
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plants and hydropower which are capable of providing continuous and dispatchable energy
pt
production [2]. Solar and wind resources have complementary characteristics where they
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can work in a synergistic way which increases the reliability of the power supply system
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[3]. Moreover, renewable energy resources can be used as distributed energy generators
and form a microgrid; where a microgrid can either be connected to the main utility grid
or can be used as a standalone system [4-7].
2

Microgrids can increase the amount of energy from renewable energy systems pumped
into the grid. Furthermore, the deployment of microgrids enhances the development of
rural areas and increase the job opportunities [8]. However, a microgrid which runs on
renewable energy systems has several issues some of which are related to grid faults where
d
the majority of the faults are unsymmetrical faults which include line to line faults, single
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line to ground faults, double line to ground faults, etc. The analysis of the microgrid
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distribution power flow is essential for enhancing the reliability and the efficiency of fault
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analysis in order to prevent such faults. Several power flow algorithms were reported in
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the literature that was designed for distribution systems [5-7]. The faults in distributed
hybrid systems bring about certain electric current limitations in the design and this issue
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can affect system performance.
Jordan is one of the developing countries in Middle East with a population of 9.53
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million [9] where 97% of its energy needs depends on imported fossil fuel [10,11] causing
r
sc
an energy insecurity issue. In addition, 20% of Jordan’s gross domestic product is spent on
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importing the energy [10] which forms an economic challenge for the government specially
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after the interruption of the Egyptian natural gas supply in 2011. This interruption forced
the power plants to depend on heavy fuel oil and diesel oil for electricity generation [12]
ed
with an electricity generation cost of 0.05 $/kWh [13].

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On the other hand, Jordan is rich of oil shale reserves [14-16], it has the third largest
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reserve in the world [17] with more than 70 billion tons of oil shale that can produce 70
Ac
billion barrels of crude oil [16,18], which can be used instead of the imported crude oil.
Several studies considered to determine the feasibility of utilizing the oil shale reserves in
Jordan. For instance, Jaber et al. [15] made a model to estimate the output products from
3

an oil shale integrated tri-generation system which consists of two electric power
generation units and a simple combined cycle gas turbine where the integration of these
systems will increase the overall effectiveness of the power plant and have low negative
environmental impacts. They concluded that the cost of energy generated from a
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commercial scale of this system, 0.057 $/kWh, would compete with the cost of electricity
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generated from large-scale coal or heavy fuel power plant in Jordan. In addition, Bsieso
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[16] concluded in his study that Jordan has a large quantity of good quality oil shale and it
py
is considered as the highest-grade oil shale by the international standards, and all tests show
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that it is technically, environmentally and economically feasible. Furthermore, Jaber et al.
[13] studied the economics using alternative fuel options for electricity generation in
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Jordan where they compared imported natural gas, coal, heavy fuel oil and local oil shale.
They concluded that heavy fuel oil, oil shale and natural gas have costs of electrical energy
ip
generation that vary between 0.035 to 0.055 $/kWh based on the fuel type.
r
sc
In addition, Jordan has a high potential of solar energy [18-22] with an average of 300-
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330 sunny days [10,20] and a high potential of wind energy with an average speed of 5 m/s
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and in some areas it exceeds 6 m/s [18-21]. Alsaad [23] investigated the wind energy
potential in four different areas in Jordan. He concluded that the lowest generation cost was
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in Ras Moneef site with 0.015 $/kWh and payback period of 6.34 years. Furthermore, Jaber
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et al. [11], Hrayshat [19], Anagreh and Bataineh [24] assessed the potential of wind and
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solar energy in Jordan. They all concluded that Jordan has high potential of wind and solar
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energy in various locations. Moreover, Essalaimeh et al. [10] studied the technical and
economic feasibility of utilizing the energy output from PV/wind hybrid system for heating
and cooling applications in domestic, industrial and commercial sectors in Jordan. Their
4

system consisted of 1.2 kW of PV modules and one turbine with 1 kW capacity. They
found that implementing such kind of systems was technically feasible; however,
economically not for all sector with long payback period. Furthermore, Halasa and
Asumadu [20] examined the potential for electricity generation from wind and PV systems
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in eastern and northern parts of Jordan. They concluded that the electricity generation cost
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in Jordan was 0.02 $/kWh from wind turbines and 0.077 $/kWh for PV power plants. In
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addition, M. Aiad et al. [25] studied the feasibility of standalone PV/wind hybrid system
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in Jordan, where they optimized the size of their system based on minimizing the annual
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total cost. They concluded that a hybrid system with 170.25 kW PV, 258.5 kW wind
turbines and 604.66 kWh battery bank would have a cost of electricity generation of 0.0624
ot
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$/kWh and a payback period of 6.93 years.
Couple of studies discussed the feasibility of utilizing renewable energy resources in

ip
Al-Tafilah. Hrayshat [22] assessed the viability of PV in electricity generation in several

r
sc
cities in Jordan, including Al-Tafilah. He concluded that Al-Tafilah and Al-Karak are the
nu
most suitable places for PV power plants, where the cost of energy generation forms a PV
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power plant in Al-Tafilah was 0.127 $/kWh with a payback period of 4.3 years.
Furthermore, El-Tous et al. [21] made a model using HOMER software to estimate the
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optimal size of a PV/wind hybrid system based on maximizing the RES fraction in Al-
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Tafilah city in Jordan. The optimal size was 35.47 MW PV power plant and 12 Vestus V82
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wind turbines each with 1.65 MW rated power. The cost of generating electricity from the
Ac
hybrid system was 0.053 $/kWh with RES fraction of 82%.
Furthermore, Al-Tafilah has one of the largest reserves of oil shale in Jordan, in Jurf Al-
Darawish, where the deposits are considered as surface and near surface deposits which
5

reduces the cost of the extraction [14]. All these factors made Al-Tafilah city a suitable
place for PV/wind-oil shale systems. Fichter et al. [26] studied the integration of available
RES of existing power plants, where Jordan was the case study. They found that
concentrated solar power (CSP), PV and wind power plants are already competitive in the
d
short term; by implementing this integration and using different scenarios, they estimated
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the cost of energy generation as 0.124 and 0.1 $/kWh in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
ed
Only one study focused on the integration between existing conventional power plants
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and a mixture of renewable energy resources in Jordan [26]; however, the study did not
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include the oil shale power plant option and the energy storage option. In addition, the
methodologies used in the literature to size the RESs are based on one parameter; either
ot
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the economic feasibility such as [20,22] or energy demand parameter to maximize the
fraction of demand met by the system [21]. In this study, the size of a grid-tied PV/wind-
ip
oil shale system in Al-Tafilah city that maximizes the fraction of demand met with
r
sc
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) less than or equal to the cost of electricity generation
nu
is to be estimated. Furthermore, the economic and the technical feasibility of the integration
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of short-term Energy Storage System (ESS) is to be investigated in addition to the effect
of Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) on the economics of the system. Figure 1 shows the
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schematic diagram of the PV/wind-oil shale system.

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A PV/wind-oil shale hybrid model was developed to estimate the hourly total electrical
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energy production from the PV power plant and the wind turbines as well as the hourly
Ac
energy demand met by the hybrid system, the hourly excess energy, the hourly energy
stored if there is an ESS, the Net Present Value, the Payback Period, the LCOE with and
without the SCC and the yearly overall fraction of demand met. In addition, the model
6

computes the optimal geometry for the PV modules based on maximizing the electrical
energy production in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.
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r ip
sc
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Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the PV/wind-oil shale system.

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2. Theory and Methodology

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2.1. Solar Resources
The estimation of the global insolation on a tilted surface requires the estimation of the
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solar geometry, where the methodology by Duffie and Beckman [27] was adopted in this
study. The methodology used is not repeated here for brevity. The global insolation consist
Ac
of three components: beam, diffuse and reflected insolation [27] as in Eq. (1) where the
reflected insolation is neglected in the analysis.
𝐼𝑇 = 𝐼𝑏,𝑡 + 𝐼𝑑,𝑡 (1)
7

where 𝐼𝑏,𝑡 can be estimated using Eq. (2) while 𝐼𝑑,𝑡 can be estimated using Eq. (3) [27]
based on the isotropic sky model; which states that the diffuse radiation comes from all
directions with the same magnitude [28].
𝐼𝑏,𝑡 = 𝐼𝑏,𝑛 × cos 𝜃 (2)
d
ite
1+cos β
𝐼𝑑,𝑡 = 𝐼𝑑 × ( ) (3)
2
ed
The hourly beam and diffuse insolation on a horizontal surface for Al-Tafilah, Jordan were
py
obtained using Meteonorm v7.1 software, which provides the data based on a typical
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meteorological year.
ot
Al-Tafilah city is located west of the capital, Amman, with the coordinates of 30.83o N,
tN
35.61o E, and it is characterized by sunny climate [21,22]. Al-Tafilah has an average daily
ip
solar irradiation on horizontal surface of 5.73 kWh m-2 where the highest irradiation occurs
r
sc
in June based on the TMY data of Al-Tafilah city. Figure 2 shows the average daily solar
irradiation on a horizontal surface in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.

nu
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9.0
Avarege Daily Horizontal Irradiation
8.0
ed
7.0
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(kWh m-2)
6.0
ce
5.0
Ac
4.0
3.0
2.0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Fig. 2 The average daily irradiation on horizontal surface in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.
8

2.2. PV Energy Production
The efficiency of a PV module is affected by the module temperature; as the module
temperature increases, the module efficiency decreases and so does the energy production. The PV
module efficiency can be estimated using Eq. (4) [29] where the effects of the wind and the relative
d
humidity on the module temperature and on the module efficiency are neglected in the analysis.
ite
𝜂𝑃𝑉 = ηPV,Ref × [1 − βRef × (𝑇𝑃𝑉 − TRef,STC )] (4)
ed
where 𝑇𝑃𝑉 can be estimated using Eq. (5) [29].
py
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𝐼𝑇
𝑇𝑃𝑉 = 𝑇𝑎𝑚𝑏 + (NOCT − TRef,NOCT ) × I (5)
Ref
ot
The hourly ambient temperature for Al-Tafilah, Jordan was obtained using Meteonorm v7.1
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software.
ip
In this study, PV modules from AXITEC company type AC-250P/156-60S were used, and the
r
sc
corresponding specifications of the PV modules, which are necessary to estimate the energy output
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of the system, were obtained from the module manufacturer. Table 1 shows the technical
specifications of the PV modules.

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After estimating the efficiency of the PV module and the total insolation on the PV module, the
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hourly total energy output from the PV power plant can be estimated [29] as,
pt
𝐸𝑃𝑉 = 𝜂𝑃𝑉 × 𝐼𝑇 × Am × Nmodules × ηlosses (6)

ce
where ηlosses accounts for the system losses including wiring, shading and dust on modules and
Ac
inverter losses and it is assumed to be 0.85 based on [31-33].
9

Table 1. Technical specifications of the PV modules [30].
Parameter Value
PPV (W) 250
ηPV,Ref (%) 15.37
d
βRef (1/°C) 0.42
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TRef,STC (°C) 25
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NOCT (°C) 45
py
TRef,NOCT (°C) 20
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IRef (W m-2) 800
Am (m2 ) 1.63
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2.3. Wind Energy Production
ip
The estimation of the energy production from wind turbines requires the wind speed at hub
r
sc
height, which depends on several factors; such as, wind speed at ground level, the ambient
nu
temperature, the height of the hub, the nature of the terrain and time (hour, day, season). All these
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factors can be represented by one variable called wind profile exponent or wind shear coefficient
which is estimated using the site-specific data; however, in the absence of the site-specific data α
ed
is usually taken as 1/7 [34]. As a result, the wind speed at hub height can be calculated as,
pt
Z α
𝑢𝑍 = 𝑢1 × (Z ) (7)
ce
1
Ac
The hourly wind speeds at ground level for Al-Tafilah, Jordan were obtained using Meteonorm
v7.1 software. Al-Tafilah city is characterized by windy climate throughout the year [21,24] where
38% of the time during the year the wind speed exceeds 3 m/s and the highest speeds occur in
10

March based on the TMY data. Figure 3 shows the average hourly wind speed at 10 m during the
year in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.
4.5
Average Wind Speed at Ground Level
4.0
d
ite
3.5
(m/s)
ed
3.0
py
2.5
Co
2.0
1.5
ot
Fig. 3 The average hourly wind speed at 10 m in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.
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The electrical power generated at each hour can be estimated [34] as,
r ip
0 , 𝑢𝑍 < uC 𝑜𝑟 𝑢𝑍 > uF
sc
(uC )K − (𝑢𝑍 )K
𝑃𝑒 = { Pe,R × (uC )K −(uR )K
, uc ≤ 𝑢𝑍 ≤ uR (8)
nu
Pe,R , uR < 𝑢𝑍 ≤ uF
Ma
where K can be calculated based on Justus theory using Eq. (9) [34,35].
K = { (σ⁄u̅)−1.086 , 1 ≤ K ≤ 10 (9)
ed
pt
Assuming that the energy generated is constant during the hour and each turbine generates the
ce
same amount in the case of having multiple turbines, the total hourly electrical energy generated
Ac
by wind turbine(s) can be estimated as,
𝐸𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑 = N × 𝑃𝑒 (10)
11

Wind turbine with 2 MW of rated power from GAMESA company (G114-2.0) was used in this
study. Table 2 shows the technical specifications of this wind turbine.
Table 2. Wind turbine technical specifications [36].
Parameter Value
d
ite
Rated power (MW) 2
Rotor diameter (m) 114
ed
Hub height (m) 140
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Cut-in speed (m/s) 2
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Cut-out speed (m/s) 21
Rated speed (m/s) 9
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2.4. Oil Shale Model
ip
The oil shale power plant is assumed to be near the shallow oil reserves in Al-Tafilah
r
sc
governorate in order to reduce the transportation and extraction costs. An oil shale power plant has
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a typical annual capacity factor of 75% [13], as it uses an advanced technology called integrated
Ma
tri-generation system which consists of two electric power generation units and a simple combined
cycle gas turbine. The integration of these systems would increase the overall effectiveness of the
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power plant and yield lower negative environmental impacts than typical conventional thermal
pt
power plants [15]. The oil shale power plant will be sized, as any thermal power plant, to meet the
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baseload of the city [37] with a safety factor of 1.2 as suggested by [38]. The yearly electrical
Ac
energy from the oil shale power plant can be calculated using Eq. (11).
EOS = 𝐵𝐿 × 24 × 365 (11)
12

2.5. Battery Bank Model and Electrical Energy Demand
The integration of oil shale power plant with RES, solar and wind systems, provides a reliable
power generation system and increase the matching between the energy production of RES and
the energy demand. In addition, such systems can be used to balance the inputs form the RESs to
d
the power grid since these inputs fluctuates rapidly with time [39-41]. Furthermore, having an
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energy storage system connected to RES increases the amount of RES energy utilized and so
ed
increase the demand matching. Moreover, the ESS can be used to adjust the power flow direction
py
in case of on-grid systems depending on the load and the energy generation from the RESs [4]. In
Co
this study, the hybrid system is connected to a larger grid and the two-way electrical power
exchange is possible with two-way tariff based on the cost of energy generation. This would reduce
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the fluctuations in voltage and frequency and increase the stability of the system. Although it is a
part of the system, a control mechanism of hybrid RES is not considered in this study. Two
ip
scenarios, one with EES and the other without ESS, are considered.
r
sc
Scenario #1 is without ESS; thus, the grid compensates any deficiency in the energy demand,
nu
and any excess energy is dumped into the grid. The amount of energy demand met by the hybrid
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system, the amount of excess energy and the energy provided by the grid can be calculated for
different periods of time (hourly, daily, etc.) in the absence of any ESS using Eqs. (12), (13) and
ed
(14), respectively.
pt
ce
𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 , 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 < 𝐷

𝐷𝐻 = { (12)
𝐷 , 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 ≥ 𝐷
Ac
0 , 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 ≤ 𝐷
𝐷𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 = { (13)
𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 − 𝐷 , 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 > 𝐷
𝐷 − 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 , 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 ≤ 𝐷
𝐷𝑔𝑟𝑖𝑑 = { (14)
0 , 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 > 𝐷
13

Scenario #2 is with ESS. It is assumed that ESS is charged by the excess energy generation
form the RES only. Figure 4 shows the energy flow chart of the hybrid system with ESS. Lithium-
Ion battery is used as the ESS in this study with constant lifetime as provided by the manufacturer
[42]. The battery is sized based on the average hourly energy deficit, where depth of discharge and
d
the overall efficiency are the only ESS characteristics considered in this study. The size of the
ite
battery can be calculated using Eq. (15). Table 3 shows the DOD and the overall efficiency for the
ed
Lithium-Ion battery.
py
max 𝐷𝐹
Estor = DOD×η (15)
Co
o
ot
tN
r ip
sc
nu
Ma
ed
pt
ce
Ac
Fig. 4 The RES energy flow chart in the presence of ESS.
14

Table 3. Technical Specification of the Lithium-Ion Batteries [42].
Parameter Value
Round-Trip efficiency (%) 95
Depth of discharge (%) 60
d
ite
The annual overall system fraction, which is the fraction of energy demand met by hybrid
ed
system which includes the oil shale, the wind and the PV systems, and the renewable energy
py
fraction, which is the fraction of energy demand met by renewable energy systems, are used to
Co
inspect the matching between the energy generation and the demand, where they can be calculated
ot
using Eq. (16) and Eq. (17) respectively. tN
∑ 𝐷𝐻
𝐹𝐻 = ∑𝐷
(16)
ip
∑ 𝐷𝑅𝐸𝑆
𝐹𝑅𝐸𝑆 =
r
∑𝐷
(17)
sc
nu
The demand data for Al-Tafilah district 2, Jordan were obtained from [21] which were for the
year of 2010. Figure 5 shows the hourly average demand data for the location.
Ma
14
Average Hourly Demand (MWh)
12
ed
10
pt
8
ce
6
Ac
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
Fig. 5 Hourly average electricity demand for Al-Tafilah city in Jordan in 2010 [21].
15

2.6. Performance Assessment of the Hybrid System
The performance of the hybrid system is assessed using the annual capacity factor which can
be calculated using Eq. (18).
𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛
𝐶𝐹 = (P (18)
d
e,R × N+PPV )×365×24+EOS
ite
2.7. Environmental Effect of the Hybrid System
ed
Renewable energy resources are clean resources and the deployment of these resources leads
py
to the mitigation of the GHGs like CO2. On the other hand, oil shale is one of fossil fuels that emit
Co
GHGs gases specially CO2. However, the tri-generation technology ensures less emissions from
oil shale [15], but due to the lack of information related to CO2 emissions by this technology it is
ot
assumed to be the same as other traditional oil shale technologies. The yearly avoided and
tN
produced amounts of dioxide emissions are approximated using Eqs. (19) and (20), respectively.
r ip
𝐴𝐶𝑂2 = R CO2 × 𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑆 (19)

sc
pCO2 = R os × SFC × Eos

nu
(20)
Ma
Table 4 summarizes the environmental parameters of the PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system in
Jordan used in this study.

ed
Table 4. The environmental parameters of the PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system in Jordan.
pt
Parameter Value Reference

ce
CO2 intensity of electricity [kg/kWh] 0.672 [43]

Ac
CO2 intensity of oil shale [MJ/kWh] 0.1067 [43]
Specific fuel consumption of oil shale [MJ/kWh] 11 [13]
16

2.8. Economics of the Hybrid System
The economic feasibility of any energy system is important as the technical feasibility where in
most of the cases, the economic feasibility determines if the project will be established or not. One
of the economic parameters that are used to determine the economic feasibility of the energy
d
systems is the Levelized Cost of Electricity which represents the cost of electricity generated by
ite
the energy system. In this study, LCOE for the hybrid system is calculated with and without
ed
including the social cost of carbon using Eqs. (21) and (22), respectively. Moreover, the discount
py
rate is assumed that it takes into account the inflation rate and the construction periods is ignored.
Co
𝑀 +𝐹 +𝑆
𝐶𝑖 +∑lt=1 𝑡 𝑡 t𝐶𝑂2
(1+r)
𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶 = 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 (21)
∑lt=1
ot
(1+r)t tN
𝑀 +𝐹
𝐶i +∑lt=1 𝑡 t𝑡
(1+r)
𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 = 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 (22)
∑lt=1
ip
(1+r)t
r
sc
The Net Present Value is an additional economic parameter used to help in the selection of the
nu
size of the hybrid system. The system is considered to be feasible if NPV is positive or unfeasible
if NPV is negative. Moreover, as the higher the NPV the higher benefits of the system are or vice
Ma
versa [44]. NPV is calculated as,

ed
𝑅
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = ∑lt=1 (1+r)
𝑡
t − 𝐶𝑖
(23)
pt
ce
In addition, the simple payback period is calculated to help in the evaluation of the feasibility
Ac
of the system as follows,
𝐶𝑖
𝑃𝐵𝑃 = (24)
𝑅𝑡1
17

The cost of electricity generation found in the literature does not include SCC, and for that
reason, the COEcon value used in this study does not include SCC. The corporation of the SCC in
calculation of LCOE is to inspect the effect of the environmental damages on the feasibility of the
system. All the economic parameters used in this study are summarized in Table 5.
d
ite
Table 5. The economic parameters of the PV, oil shale power plants, the wind turbine system and
ed
the ESS in addition to the cost of electricity generation, CO2 cost and the annual discount rate for
Al-Tafilah, Jordan.
py
Parameter Value Ref.
Co
PV power plant capital cost ($/kW) 1533 [26]
ot
PV power plant annual maintenance cost ($/kW) tN 24.68 [45]
Wind turbine capital cost ($/kW) 1516 [26]
Wind turbine annual maintenance cost ($/kW) 39.53 [45]

ip
Oil shale power plant capital cost ($/kWh) 1550 [13]

r
sc
Oil shale power plant annual maintenance cost ($/kW) 60 [13]

nu
Oil shale cost ($/kWh) 0.011 [13]
Lithium-Ion Battery Cost ($/kWh) 495 [46]

Ma
Social cost of CO2 ($/ton) 40 [47]

ed
System expected lifetime (year) 25 [13,42,48]
Cost of electricity generation ($/kWh) 0.05 [13]

pt
Annual discount rate (%) 8 [13]

ce
Ac
In this study, the hybrid system was modeled using Microsoft Excel. The model estimates the
sizes of the hybrid system- PV power plant capacity, number of wind turbines, the oil shale power
plant capacity- and the battery bank size in Al-Tafilah, Jordan that maximize the fraction of
18

demand met with 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 equals to or less than the local cost of electricity generation. In addition,
the model estimates the optimal geometry of the PV modules in Al-Tafilah city.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Model Validation
d
ite
The developed model was validated by comparing the results obtained from separate PV/wind
ed
and oil shale models with the existing and validated models in the literature [13,49] using the
economic and technical parameters mentioned in the literature. The results show slight difference
py
in the levelized cost of electricity of the oil shale system where the reason for this difference is the
Co
assumptions made in the methodology which ignores any additional cost such as transportation
ot
and extraction costs in this study. While it shows no difference in the RES fraction and the
tN
levelized cost of electricity of the PV/wind model (2 MW PV and 3 MW wind configuration was
ip
used). Table 6 shows a comparison between the results obtained from the developed models and
r
the models in the literature.

sc
nu
Table 6. Comparison between the results obtained from the developed models and the models in
the literature.
Ma
LCOE (USD/kWh) RES Fraction (%)

Model
ed
Developed Model Literature Developed Model Literature

pt
Oil Shale 0.042 0.044 [13] -- --

ce
PV/wind 0.15 0.15 [49] 36 36

Ac
3.2. Component Sizing based on maximizing FH
The energy production from the non-tracking PV modules highly depends on the orientation of
the modules. The orientation should be optimized for each location because of the daily and
19

seasonally change in the sun position. Considering the methodology mentioned in Duffie and
Beckman and Sections 2.1 to maximize the electrical energy generation from the PV power plant
in Al-Tafilah, Jordan, the modules should be installed with tilt angle of 24o and surface azimuth
angle of 27o.
d
ite
The oil shale power plant was sized using the demand data of Al-Tafilah as mentioned in
ed
Sections 2.5 and 2.6. The base load of the site was observed as 7.5 MWh; thus with a safety factor
of 1.2 and a capacity factor of 75%, the oil shale power plant size was determined as 12 MW.
py
Co
The sizing of the components of the hybrid energy systems are often done in the literature by
maximizing the fraction of the demand met by the hybrid system. The maximization of this fraction
ot
can be achieved by increasing the installed capacity of PV and wind energy systems, as the size of
tN
the oil shale power plant is fixed by the base load. Figure 6 shows the PV installed capacity as a
ip
function of the number of wind turbines with 12 MW oil shale power plant that maximizes the
r
sc
fraction of energy met by the hybrid system with and without ESS and the corresponding fraction
of demand met in Al-Tafilah, Jordan. The results show that the overall fraction can be as high as
nu
97%, but it requires enormous amount of PV and wind turbine installations, which would not be
Ma
economically feasible. Furthermore, the integration of battery storage system slightly increased
ed
the overall fraction. The figure shows that by installing 0.4 MWh of battery based ESS integrated
pt
to the hybrid system, the fraction of demand met by the hybrid system is increased from 96.6% to
ce
96.9% for 70 wind turbines in Al-Tafilah, where in both scenarios 70.4% of the demand is met by
Ac
the oil shale system.
Notice that in Fig. 6. the required PV capacity decreases, as the number of turbines increases,
and at the same time the fraction of demand met is increasing because increasing the number of
wind turbines have higher ability to increase the overall fraction for the site than increasing the
20

installed capacity of PV. However, when the number of turbines exceeds 50 (i.e., 100 MW of
installed capacity), the overall fraction reaches the saturation value at about 96.9% and 97.2% for
scenarios without and with ESS, respectively. For the higher installed capacities, the overall
fraction does not increase considerably because most of the energy produced by the hybrid system
d
do not match with the energy demand and is dumped into the grid.
ite
ed
9.0 100
8.0
py
PV Power Plant Capacity (GW)
98
7.0
Overall Fraction (%)

Co
96
6.0
PV Capacity
5.0 PV+ESS 94
ot
4.0 Fraction Met
92
tN
Fraction Met With ESS
3.0
90
2.0
ip
1.0 88
r
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
sc
Number of Turbines
Fig. 6 The installed PV capacity as a function of the number of wind turbines with 12 MW oil
nu
shale capacity that maximizes fraction of demand met with and without ESS in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.
Ma
Table 7 summarizes and compares the configurations of PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system that
ed
achieves the maximum fraction of demand met for Al-Tafilah city with and without ESS and the
corresponding yearly energy production, excess energy, 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 and 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶 . Notice that when
pt
there is a 0.58 MWh of ESS introduced to the hybrid system, the PV plant capacity decreased from
ce
2.20 GW to 1.55 GW and wind turbine capacity increased from 1.4 GW to 1.6 GW. These results
Ac
provide the information that wind resource in the area are more suitable to have ESS rather than
solar resource which is intermittent. As a result, the excess energy is decreased by 8% and the
fraction of demand met by the system increased slightly by 0.03%. Additionally, the corresponding
21

𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 decreased by 0.002 $/kWh when ESS is introduced. The results in Table 7 also show that
both system configurations have 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 larger than 𝐶𝑂𝐸𝑐𝑜𝑛 (0.05 $/kWh) which make these
configurations economical unfeasible. In addition, in both configurations almost 99% of the energy
production is excess where just 1% meets the electricity demand meaning that the system is
d
oversized. This proves that sizing hybrid system based on maximizing the overall fraction of
ite
demand met by the system does not provide economically feasible results if the system is
ed
connected to the grid.
py
Table 7. The configurations of PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system that achieves the maximum
Co
fraction of demand met for Al-Tafilah city and the corresponding yearly energy production, excess
ot
energy and the LCOE with and without the SCC. tN
Scenario Oil shale PV Wind ESS 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 FH 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶
cap. cap. cap. (MWh) (%)

ip
(GWh) (GWh) ($/kWh) ($/kWh)

r
(MW) (GW) (GW)

sc
1 12 2.20 1.40 0 7383 7292 96.9 0.084 0.057

nu
2 12 1.55 1.60 0.58 6783 6692 97.2 0.082 0.056

Ma
3.3. Component Sizing based on LCOE

ed
The economic feasibility of the energy systems is the most important measure that determines
pt
whether to install the energy system or not. Oil shale power plant have the lowest LCOE compared
ce
with wind and PV systems in Al-Tafilah, Jordan if the social cost of carbon dioxide is not counted.
Ac
However, if the SCC is counted, wind turbine system will have the lowest LCOE. Table 8 shows
the levelized cost of electricity for separate oil shale, PV and wind systems with and without the
social cost of CO2 in addition to the yearly capacity factor in Al-Tafilah, Jordan. Notice that in
Table 8, the 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 for oil shale system is lower than the COEcon (0.05 $/kWh), while 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶 is
22

larger since oil shale power plant produces GHGs, especially CO2, emissions. However, LCOE
for PV and wind systems decreases as these systems help in avoiding CO2 emissions, but the
resulting LCOE values are still higher than COEcon . Nevertheless, the hybridization of optimum
installed sizes of these systems would be economically feasible and contribute in the mitigation of
d
GHGs.
ite
ed
Table 8. The levelized cost of electricity for separate PV, wind and oil shale systems with and
without the SCC in addition to the yearly capacity factor in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.
py
System 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶 ($/kWh) 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 ($/kWh) Yearly Capacity Factor (%)
Co
Oil shale thermal power plant 0.081 0.042 75.00
ot
PV power plant 0.063 tN 0.090 19.91
Wind turbine(s) 0.051 0.078 28.44

ip
A parametric study is considered to determine the economic feasibility of the hybrid system by
r
sc
estimating LCOE. Figure 7 and Figure 8 show the 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 of the hybrid system as a function of PV
nu
and wind capacities with 12 MW oil shale system for the two scenarios in Al-Tafilah, Jordan,
Ma
without and with ESS, respectively. The results show that several configurations of the hybrid
system are considered economically feasible to install in Al-Tafilah. These figures show that
ed
LCOE increases with increasing the installed capacities of PV or wind systems as expected.
pt
Moreover, the LCOE in Fig. 8. is slightly higher than the ones in Fig. 7. due to the cost of ESS.
ce
Notice that LCOE is greater than COEcon regardless of the number of turbines for PV sizes of
Ac
about 9 MW and 5.5 MW without and with ESS, respectively. Additionally, if there are more than
5 turbines without ESS or more than 4 turbines with ESS, there are no economically feasible
solution regardless of installed PV plant size. As a result, if the renewable energy components in
23

a hybrid system are sized based on minimizing LCOE, the result would suggest a system without
any PV or wind energy systems as the individual LCOE of these systems are higher than COEcon
as shown in Table 8. Therefore, this method does not decrease GHG emissions, localize energy
production or increase the energy security of the site.
d
ite
0.056
0.054
ed
LCOE (USD/kWh)
0.052
py
0.050
0.048
Co
0.046
0 Turbines 1 Turbine 2 Turbines
0.044 3 Turbines 4 Turbines 5 Turbines
ot
COEcon
0.042
tN
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
PV Capacity (MW)
Fig. 7 The 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 of the PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system as a function of wind and PV capacities
ip
with 12 MW oil shale system and without any ESS, in addition to the COEcon in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.
r
sc
0.058
nu
0.056
Ma
LCOE (USD/kWh)
0.054
0.052
ed
0.050
0.048
pt
0 Turbines 1 Turbine 2 Turbines

0.046 3 Turbines 4 Turbines 5 Turbines
ce
COEcon
0.044
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ac
PV Capacity (MW)
Fig. 8 The 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 of the PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system as a function of wind and PV capacities
with 12 MW oil shale system and with Lithium-Ion battery bank of different capacities based on
the hourly deficit, in addition to the COEcon in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.
24

3.4. Component Sizing based on both FH and LCOE
The economic feasibility and the maximization of the fraction of demand met by the hybrid
system should be considered at the same time to estimate the optimal size of the system. The
maximum fraction of demand met by the hybrid system with 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 equals to COEcon in Scenario
d
#1 is 87.23%, while in Scenario #2 it is 85.67% where the capital cost of the ESS required smaller
ite
PV plant to maintain 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 equal to the COEcon . Smaller PV installation, in return, caused the
ed
drop in the overall fraction of demand met, even though some of the excess energy is stored
py
however it did not compensate the reduction in the RES fraction caused by smaller PV capacity.
Co
Table 9 shows the proposed size of the PV/wind-oil shale system that maximizes the fraction of
demand met with 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 equals to COEcon with and without ESS and the corresponding 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶 ,
ot
tN
𝑃𝐵𝑃 with and without SCC, 𝑁𝑃𝑉 with and without SCC, 𝐹𝐻 , FRES, CO2 emissions, avoided CO2
emissions and the yearly capacity factor.

r ip
Notice that for Scenario #1 in Table 9, the optimal PV size is 3.5 MW and the optimal number
sc
of wind turbines is 3 which corresponds to capacity of 6 MW. With this configuration, the overall
nu
fraction was 87.2%. The corresponding 𝑃𝐵𝑃 is about 4.8 years and 𝑁𝑃𝑉 is 34.5 million $. Whereas
Ma
for Scenario #2, which is with ESS of about 3 MWh, the optimal PV size is 0.77 MW and the
ed
optimal wind capacity is the same as Scenario #1, 6 MW. The corresponding payback period is
the same as Scenario #1; however, 𝑁𝑃𝑉 decreased slightly to 32.9 million $. Significant amount
pt
of CO2 emissions is avoided in both cases, about 14100 and 10900 tons in Scenarios #1 and #2,
ce
respectively, which proves the importance of SCC in these analyses. When SCC is considered,
Ac
𝑃𝐵𝑃 increases and 𝑁𝑃𝑉 decreases significantly as the oil share thermal power plant meets the
majority of the demand, about 70% in both scenarios. This amount can be seen by comparing FH
and FRES in Table 9. Moreover, notice in Table 9 that Scenario #2 has capacity factor larger than
25

Scenario #1, since the PV system has lower capacity factor than wind and oil shale systems and
any decrease in PV share increases the capacity factor of the hybrid system.
Table 9. The optimal sizes of PV/wind-oil shale system with and without ESS and the
corresponding 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶 , 𝑃𝐵𝑃 with and without SCC, 𝑁𝑃𝑉 with and without SCC, 𝐹𝐻 , FRES, CO2
d
ite
emissions, avoided CO2 emissions and the yearly capacity factor.
ed
Scenario #1 Scenario #2
py
Parameter Value Value
12
Co
Oil shale capacity (MW) 12
PV capacity (MW) 3.5 0.77
ot
Wind capacity (MW) tN 6 6
Battery capacity (MWh) - 2.97
Capacity factor (%) 46.1 49.89

ip
𝐹𝐻 (%) 87.23 85.67

r
sc
FRES (%) 16.86 15.30

nu
𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶 ($/kWh) 0.076 0.078

Ma
𝑃𝐵𝑃 (year) 4.78 4.77
𝑃𝐵𝑃 with SCC (year) 7.53 8.10

ed
𝑁𝑃𝑉 (million USD) 34.46 32.86

pt
𝑁𝑃𝑉 with SCC (million USD) 10.05 6.89

ce
CO2 emissions (ton) 77074 77074

Ac
Avoided CO2 emissions (ton) 14132 10946
26

Since Scenario #1 has larger overall fraction, higher 𝑁𝑃𝑉 and avoids more CO2 emissions than
Scenario #2, it is proposed as the most suitable configuration for Al-Tafilah, Jordan. The
integration between the oil shale and the RESs, PV and wind, in Al-Tafilah proved that they can
work in a synergetic way. Figure 9 shows the average hourly energy generation from the 12 MW
d
oil shale, 3.5 MW PV and 6 MW wind systems as well as the average hourly demand of Al-Tafilah
ite
city. Notice in Fig. 9. that Al-Tafilah city has two demand peaks; one happens around noon and
ed
another one during the night, and the largest demand happens in the second period since the
py
demand belongs to a residential city where the peak happens after the working hours. Furthermore,
Co
notice that most of the mismatch is at night when the demand is high, there is lower energy
generation from wind turbines and no energy generation form the PV system.
ot
tN
14
Average Hourly Demand and Electricity
Oil shale Wind

ip
12
PV Demand
r
10
sc
Generation (MWh)
8
nu
6
Ma
2
ed
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
pt
Hour
Fig. 9 The average hourly energy generation from the 12 MW oil shale, 3.5 MW PV and 6 MW
ce
wind systems in addition to the average hourly demand of Al-Tafilah city.

Ac
Even though the yearly total energy production from the proposed size is larger than the yearly
total electricity demand, the system requires energy from the grid to compensate the deficit that
results from the mismatching between the demand and the energy generation. Figure 10 shows the
27

monthly electricity production from each component of the PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system with
the proposed sizes and the monthly demand met by the electricity grid as well as the monthly
demand for Al-Tafilah, Jordan. Notice that in Fig. 10. the highest energy generated by wind
turbines is in March since it has the highest average wind speeds during the year, while the largest
d
amount of energy generated from PV is in June when the highest average solar radiation
ite
throughout the year is available. On the other hand, the largest deficit is in May where the demand
ed
is the maximum throughout the year.
py
10000
Co
9000
Monthly Electrical Energy (MWh)
8000
ot
7000
6000
tN
5000
4000
ip
3000
r
2000
sc
1000
0
nu
Eshale Dgrid Egen,wind Egen,pv Demand

Ma
Fig. 10 The monthly electricity production from the components of PV/wind-oil shale hybrid
system with 12 MW oil shale, 3.5 MW PV and 6 MW wind turbines with 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 equals to COEcon
ed
and the monthly demand met by the electricity grid in addition to the monthly demand for Al-
pt
Tafilah city in Jordan.

ce
4. Conclusions
Ac
Jordan has the third largest oil shale reserve in the world in addition to high potential of solar
and wind energy resources. Therefore, the hybridization of RES and oil shale system would
provide reliable energy source and increase the energy security of the country. In the literature,
28

the sizing of a hybrid system was based on either maximizing the fraction of demand met or
minimizing the LCOE of the system; however, an optimal system size should both be
economically feasible and achieve the highest possible fraction of demand met. Therefore, the
purpose of this study is to determine the optimal size of a PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system in Al-
d
Tafilah, Jordan that maximizes the overall fraction of demand met with LCOE equals to or less
ite
than the local COEcon (0.05 $/kWh). Moreover, the effect of carbon social cost on the system's
ed
economics is investigated in addition to the effect of the integration of energy storage system on
py
the economic feasibility of the system.
Co
The maximization of the overall fraction of demand met by the hybrid system can be achieved
ot
by increasing the capacities of PV and wind systems where the oil shale system is sized based on
tN
the minimum hourly demand. However, to achieve the maximum 𝐹𝐻 huge installed capacity of
ip
PV and wind is required where the majority of the energy produced is excess. Moreover, the
r
integration of energy storage system can help in increasing the 𝐹𝐻 ; however, the maximization
sc
still requires enormous PV and wind capacities. The maximum overall fraction of demand met
nu
by the hybrid system in Al-Tafilah is 97.2% with Lithium-Ion battery storage system and 96.9%
Ma
without energy storage system, where 70.4% of the demand is met by the 12 MW oil shale system.
Moreover, 99% of the energy produced in both scenarios is excess and both scenarios have 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0
ed
larger than COEcon . Another alternative sizing method is to minimize LCOE. However, this
pt
method suggests no PV or wind energy system installations, as individual LCOE of these systems
ce
are higher than COEcon .

Ac
The maximization of 𝐹𝐻 with 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 equals to COEcon can be achieved with 12 MW of oil
shale, 3.5 MW of PV and 6 MW of wind turbines and without ESS; where the integration of ESS
reduces FH by reducing the feasible PV capacity due to the additional cost of the ESS. Such size
29

would have a 𝐹𝐻 of 87.23%, capacity factor of 46.1%, 𝑁𝑃𝑉 of 34.8 million USD and a payback
period of 4.8 years. Furthermore, 𝐹𝑅𝐸𝑆 of such size would be 16.86% where the RES would be
responsible of reducing the annual CO2 emissions by 14132 tons. On the other hand, the oil shale
power plant produces annually 77074 tons of CO2 which can increase the LCOE of the system to
d
0.076 $/kWh if the social cost of carbon is included and also can increase the payback period to
ite
7.53 years and decrease the 𝑁𝑃𝑉 to 10 million USD.
ed
As a future study, the technical and the economic feasibility of the integration between
py
PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system with long term energy storage systems to achieve the maximum
Co
feasible fraction of demand met should be studied. In addition, the technical and the economic
ot
feasibility of the integration between PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system and a fourth auxiliary
tN
energy system should be studied and compare it with the results found in this study.
ip
Acknowledgment
r
sc
The authors would like to thank Prof. Dr. Derek K. Baker for providing the typical
nu
meteorological year dataset for Al-Tafilah, Jordan, that is used as estimated dataset in this study.
Ma
Nomenclature
𝐴𝐶𝑂2 The yearly avoided amounts of CO2 emissions, ton

ed
Am The single Photovoltaic module area, m2

pt
𝐵𝐿 The minimum hourly electrical demand, kWh

𝐶𝑖 The capital cost of the hybrid system, $
ce
𝐶𝐹 The annual capacity factor, %

Ac
COEcon Cost of Electricity from conventional systems, $/kWh

𝐷 The electrical demand, kWh
𝐷𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 The amount of excess energy from the hybrid system, kWh
𝐷𝑔𝑟𝑖𝑑 The demand met by the electricity grid, kWh
𝐷𝐻 The amount of energy demand met by the hybrid system, kWh
30

𝐷𝑜 The demand at time n after the deduction of the baseload, kWh

𝐷𝑅𝐸𝑆 The demand met by the renewable energy systems at time n, kWh
𝐷𝐹 The average hourly energy deficit, kWh
DOD The depth of discharge of the battery, %
𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 The yearly energy generated by the hybrid system, MWh
Eos
d
The yearly electricity production by the oil shale power plant, MWh.
ite
𝐸𝑃𝑉 The electrical energy generated by the PV power plant, MWh
𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑆 The yearly electrical energy generated by renewable energy systems, MWh
ed
𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟 Battery size, kWh
𝑛
𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟 The hourly energy stored in the battery at time n, kWh
py
𝐸𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑 The total hourly electrical energy generated by wind turbine(s), kWh
Co
FH The annual overall system fraction, %
𝐹𝑅𝐸𝑆 The annual renewable energy fraction, %
ot
𝐹𝑡 The yearly oil shale cost, $
𝐼𝑏,𝑛 The hourly beam insolation, Wh m-2
tN
𝐼𝑏,𝑡 The hourly beam insolation on a tilted surface, Wh m-2
The diffuse insolation on a horizontal surface, Wh m-2
ip
𝐼𝑑
𝐼𝑑,𝑡 The diffuse insolation on a tilted surface, Wh m-2
r
sc
IRef The reference insolation at nominal conditions, Wh m-2

𝐼𝑇 Global insolation on a tilted surface, Wh m-2
nu
K The shape parameter of the Weibull distribution of the wind speeds

Ma
l The lifetime of the system, years

𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶 The levelized cost of electricity including social cost of carbon, $/kWh
𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 The levelized cost of electricity without including social cost of carbon, $/kWh
ed
𝑀𝑡 The yearly fixed maintenance cost of the hybrid system, $

pt
N The number of wind turbines

Nmodules The number of modules in the photovoltaic power plant
ce
NOCT The nominal operating photovoltaic cell temperature, oC

Ac
𝑁𝑃𝑉 Net present value, $

n Time in a year, hour
𝑃𝑒 The average electrical power generated at each hour from the wind turbine, kW
Pe,R The rated electrical power of the wind turbine, kW
PPV The installed capacity of the photovoltaic power plant, kW
31

pCO2 The yearly CO2 emissions from the oil shale power plant, ton
𝑃𝐵𝑃 Simple payback period, years
R CO2 The CO2 intensity of electricity, kg/kWh
R os The CO2 intensity of oil shale, kg/kWh
𝑅𝑡 The annual net revenues from the system, $
d
𝑅𝑡1 The annual net revenues for the first year, $
ite
r The annual discount rate, %
𝑆𝐶𝑂2 The social cost of carbon dioxide, $
ed
SFC The specific fuel consumption of oil shale, MJ/kWh
𝑇𝑎𝑚𝑏 The ambient temperature, oC
py
𝑇𝑃𝑉 The module temperature, oC
Co
TRef,NOCT The reference module temperature at nominal conditions, oC
TRef,STC The module temperature at standard test conditions, oC
ot
uC The cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine, m/s
uF The cut-out wind speed of the wind turbine, m/s
tN
uR The rated wind speed of the wind turbine, m/s
ip
𝑢𝑍 The speed at hub height, m/s

𝑢1 The average wind speed at ground level, m/s
r
sc
u̅ The mean wind speed at hub height, m/s

Z The hub height, m
nu
Z1 The height of the ground level, m/s

Ma
α Wind shear coefficient

β The tilt angle of the photovoltaic modules, °
βRef The temperature coefficient of the photovoltaic module, % K-1
ed
σ The standard deviation of the wind speeds sample, m/s

pt
ηlosses The photovoltaic system losses, %

ηo The overall efficiency of the battery, %
ce
𝜂𝑃𝑉 The photovoltaic module efficiency, %

Ac
ηPV,Ref The reference efficiency of the photovoltaic module, %

𝜃 The incident angle, °
ESS Energy storage system
GHGs Greenhouse Gases
HOMER Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables
32

LCOE Levelized Cost of Electricity

PV Photovoltaic
RES Renewable Energy System
SCC The social cost of carbon
TMY Typical Metrological Year
d
ite
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37

Table Captions List
Table 1. Technical specifications of the PV modules [30]. ........................................................................ 10
Table 2. Wind turbine technical specifications [36]. .................................................................................. 12
Table 3. Technical Specification of the Lithium-Ion Batteries [42]. .......................................................... 15
d
Table 4. The environmental parameters of the PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system in Jordan. ..................... 16
ite
Table 5. The economic parameters of the PV, oil shale power plants, the wind turbine system and the ESS
ed
in addition to the cost of electricity generation, CO2 cost and the annual discount rate for Al-Tafilah,
py
Jordan. ......................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table 6. Comparison between the results obtained from the developed models and the models in the
Co
literature. ..................................................................................................................................................... 19
ot
Table 7. The configurations of PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system that achieves the maximum fraction of
tN
demand met for Al-Tafilah city and the corresponding yearly energy production, excess energy and the
LCOE with and without the SCC. ............................................................................................................... 22

ip
Table 8. The levelized cost of electricity for separate PV, wind and oil shale systems with and without the
r
sc
SCC in addition to the yearly capacity factor in Al-Tafilah, Jordan. .......................................................... 23

nu
Table 9. The optimal sizes of PV/wind-oil shale system with and without ESS and the corresponding
𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝐶, 𝑃𝐵𝑃 with and without SCC, 𝑁𝑃𝑉 with and without SCC, 𝐹𝐻, FRES, CO2 emissions, avoided CO2
Ma
emissions and the yearly capacity factor..................................................................................................... 26

ed
pt
ce
Ac
38

Figure Captions List
Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the PV/wind-oil shale system. ........................................................................ 7
Fig. 2 The average daily irradiation on horizontal surface in Al-Tafilah, Jordan. ........................................ 8
Fig. 3 The average hourly wind speed at 10 m in Al-Tafilah, Jordan......................................................... 11
d
Fig. 4 The RES energy flow chart in the presence of ESS. ........................................................................ 14
ite
Fig. 5 Hourly average electricity demand for Al-Tafilah city in Jordan in 2010 [21]. ............................... 15
ed
Fig. 6 The installed PV capacity as a function of the number of wind turbines with 12 MW oil shale
py
capacity that maximizes fraction of demand met with and without ESS in Al-Tafilah, Jordan. ................ 21
Co
Fig. 7 The 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 of the PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system as a function of wind and PV capacities with
12 MW oil shale system and without any ESS, in addition to the COEcon in Al-Tafilah, Jordan. Fig. 8
ot
The 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 of the PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system as a function of wind and PV capacities with 12 MW
tN
oil shale system and with Lithium-Ion battery bank of different capacities based on the hourly deficit, in
ip
addition to the COEcon in Al-Tafilah, Jordan............................................................................................. 24

r
Fig. 9 The average hourly energy generation from the 12 MW oil shale, 3.5 MW PV and 6 MW wind
sc
systems in addition to the average hourly demand of Al-Tafilah city. ....................................................... 27

nu
Fig. 10 The monthly electricity production from the components of PV/wind-oil shale hybrid system with
Ma
12 MW oil shale, 3.5 MW PV and 6 MW wind turbines with 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸0 equals to COEcon and the monthly
demand met by the electricity grid in addition to the monthly demand for Al-Tafilah city in Jordan........ 28
ed
pt
ce
Ac
39

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Journal of Solar Energy Engineering: Including Wind Energy and Building Energy Conservation.

Received April 02, 2017;

Sizing of a PV-wind-oil shale hybrid system: Case analysis in Jordan

costs of conventional systems. In addition, this integration will prevent considerable

generation. In addition, the effect of the integration of Lithium-Ion batteries as short-term

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or can be used as a standalone system [4-7].

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with an electricity generation cost of 0.05 $/kWh [13].

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Couple of studies discussed the feasibility of utilizing renewable energy resources in

Al-Tafilah. Hrayshat [22] assessed the viability of PV in electricity generation in several

hybrid system was 0.053 $/kWh with RES fraction of 82%.

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of short-term Energy Storage System (ESS) is to be investigated in addition to the effect

schematic diagram of the PV/wind-oil shale system.

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energy production in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the PV/wind-oil shale system.

2. Theory and Methodology

2.1. Solar Resources

reflected insolation is neglected in the analysis.

𝐼𝑇 = 𝐼𝑏,𝑡 + 𝐼𝑑,𝑡 (1)

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directions with the same magnitude [28].

𝐼𝑏,𝑡 = 𝐼𝑏,𝑛 × cos 𝜃 (2)

irradiation on a horizontal surface in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.

Fig. 2 The average daily irradiation on horizontal surface in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.

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2.2. PV Energy Production

The efficiency of a PV module is affected by the module temperature; as the module

specifications of the PV modules.

𝐸𝑃𝑉 = 𝜂𝑃𝑉 × 𝐼𝑇 × Am × Nmodules × ηlosses (6)

inverter losses and it is assumed to be 0.85 based on [31-33].

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Table 1. Technical specifications of the PV modules [30].

PPV (W) 250

ηPV,Ref (%) 15.37

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year in Al-Tafilah, Jordan.

by wind turbine(s) can be estimated as,

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study. Table 2 shows the technical specifications of this wind turbine.

Table 2. Wind turbine technical specifications [36].

Rotor diameter (m) 114

Rated speed (m/s) 9

EOS = 𝐵𝐿 × 24 × 365 (11)

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2.5. Battery Bank Model and Electrical Energy Demand

𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 , 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛 < 𝐷

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Fig. 4 The RES energy flow chart in the presence of ESS.

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Table 3. Technical Specification of the Lithium-Ion Batteries [42].

Round-Trip efficiency (%) 95

Depth of discharge (%) 60

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2.6. Performance Assessment of the Hybrid System

be calculated using Eq. (18).

𝐴𝐶𝑂2 = R CO2 × 𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑆 (19)

pCO2 = R os × SFC × Eos

Jordan used in this study.