Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

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Science of the Total Environment

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv

New indices system for quantifying the nexus between economic-social

development, natural resources consumption, and environmental
pollution in China during 1978–2018
Xiang Sun a,⁎, BoKuan Zhu a, Shuai Zhang a, Heng Zeng a, Kuai Li a, Bin Wang a,
ZhanFeng Dong b, ChangChang Zhou c
a
College of Resources, Environment and Materials, Guangxi University, Guangxi, Nanning 530004, China
b
Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
c
Department of Urban Planning and Design, Faculty of Architecture, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China

H I G H L I G H T S G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T

• DPSIR framework, CCD assessment and

VAR model applied for nexus analysis
• A new indices system following DPSIR
framework proposed for nexus analysis
• China's nexus among social-economic-
natural resource-environment system
revealed

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: It is meaningful to study how China can maintain the sustainable utilization of natural resources and the
Received 13 June 2021 continuous improvement of environmental conditions while ensuring the stable development of the
Received in revised form 19 August 2021 economy and society. In this study, a new indices system was proposed for the analysis of nexus
Accepted 2 September 2021
among social-economic-natural resource-environment complex systems following the DPSIR (Driving
Available online 8 September 2021
Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Respond) framework, CCD (Coupling Coordination Degree) analysis
Editor: Martin Drews and VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive) model were applied for quantifying the synergy and trade-off of
China in the nexus framework. Results showed that: (1) Although China's rapid development has
caused big consumption of natural resources and increasing pollutants discharges during 1978–2018,
Keywords: China has not got into trouble of extreme resource depletion and ecosystem collapse. On the contrary,
DPSIR China guaranteed food supply, stopped forest degradation, and avoided pollution-induced healthy cri-
Coupling Coordination Degree ses & life-shortening. (2) Adjustment of water pollution industries and the increase of wastewater
Causality treatment investment contributed 39% and 37% to the reduction of water pollutant discharge, respec-
China
tively. The contribution of energy structure adjustment to acid rain control was 26%. The pollutants
Nexus
discharged in no less than 70% of the provinces are strictly controlled below the environmental capac-
ity. The increase of fertilizer application and effective irrigated area contributed 32% to China's grain in-
crease, and China's grain self-sufficiency rate has been maintained above 110%. The improvement of the
water-saving irrigation rate contributed 28% to the reduction of water consumption. The reduction of

⁎ Corresponding author at: School of Resources, Environment and Materials, Guangxi University, 100 Daxue Road, Guangxi, Nanning 530004, China.
E-mail addresses: sunxiangphd@gxu.edu.cn (X. Sun), dongzf@caep.org.cn (Z. Dong).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150180
0048-9697/© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.
comprehensive efficiency contributed 23.8% to the decrease in energy consumptions per GDP. The CCD
assessment showed that China has entered a phase of pre-eminently coordinated development since
2013.
1. Introduction
‘Our Common Future’ published by World Commission on Environ-
ment and Development (WCED) in 1987 and ‘Agenda 21’ adopted by
the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
(UNCED) in 1992 has reached a consensus on sustainable development
(Bruntland, 1987; UNCED, 1992). Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs) proposed in 2015 by United Nations emphasized that develop-
ment must balance social, economic, and environmental sustainability
(United Nations, 2015). The researches on the interaction between so-
cial and economic development, natural resource utilization, and envi-
ronmental quality can deepen our understanding of how to realize the
goal of sustainable development (IUCN et al., 1980). The nexus concept
originated in 2011 and gains popularity in recent years by focusing
on the interaction among different systems (Hoff, 2011). The syn-
ergy and trade-off analysis for the complex economic-social-
resources-environmental system from a holistic perspective is
major content in the nexus framework (Rasul and Sharma, 2016;
Kaddoura and El Khatib, 2017). Over the past 10 years, scientists
made big progress in analyzing the nexus between urbanization,
population growth, water resource, food production & security,
mining, energy consumption, carbon dioxide emission, and climate
change (EL-Gafy et al., 2017; Sebri, 2015; Rasul and Sharma, 2016;
Lotz-Sisitka et al., 2016; Meng et al., 2019; Yang and Goodrich,
2014; Marston, 2017; Kaddoura and El Khatib, 2017).
pt?>Nexus analysis was conducted based on multi-indicators by
following DPSIR (Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Respond)
framework (Janssen et al., 2020), or by applying CCD (Coupling
Coordination Degree assessment) (Ernst and Preston, 2017; Han
et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2020), VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) model
(Irandoust, 2016), environmental footprints assessment (Gu et al.,
2019), Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM) (Huang et al., 2020),
decoupling theory (Pan et al., 2019), Linear Optimization (EL-Gafy
et al., 2017), and Safety Index evaluation method (Venghaus and
Dieken, 2019). In addition, scenario analysis is also used to model
the future development trend of nexus systems under different deci-
sions or transitions (Hoolohan et al., 2019). With the increase of re-
search sectors and the depth of research content, the combination
of multiple analytical frameworks enables more effective implemen-
tation of nexus governance (Märker et al., 2018), because it can
achieve different research purposes by carrying out multi-levels of
analysis, such as the combination of Institutional Analysis and Devel-
opment (IAD) framework & Management and Transition Framework
(MTF) (Märker et al., 2018), the combination of meta-analysis ap-
proach and Granger causality test (Sebri, 2015). Furthermore,
Nexus analytics software or programmer that can identify synergy
rapidly has been developed for policy decisions, such as the WEF
Nexus Tool 2.0 for the analysis of Water-Energy-Food Nexus
(Daher and Mohtar, 2015), The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System
(TIMES) for nexus modeling and analyzing in the field of energy
(IEA, 2011), Nexus Tools Platform (NTP) for exploring the inter-
linkages of natural resources and the environment and advancing in-
tegrated management (Mannschatz et al., 2016). These approaches
analyze the synergies or trade-offs between subsystems by identify-
ing causal paths in the nexus system. However, previous researches
mainly focused on nexus analysis of a single system such as the rela-
tionships between economic-social development and energy or
water resources system not taking cultivated land resource, mineral
2
Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
resources, forest resources, water resources, surface water environ-
ment, marine environment, and atmospheric environment as a
whole. The DPSIR framework was developed by the European Envi-
ronment Agency (EEA) based on the PSR (Pressure-State-Response)
model and DSR (Driving Force-State-Response) model, which can
systematically and comprehensively describe and analyze the causal
relationships and internal interactions within one particular aspect
of natural resource or eco-environment (Nathwani et al., 2019; Jia
et al., 2019), such as the changes in land-use patterns (Liu et al.,
2019), land degradation and food security (Poppy et al., 2014), min-
eral resources depletion (Du et al., 2020), the sustainability of water
resources (Sun et al., 2016), forest degradation (Zandebasiri et al.,
2017), water pollution (Wang et al., 2015), and air pollution
(Guariso et al., 2016). The CCD theory was proposed to quantitatively
evaluate whether different subsystems have developed harmoni-
ously (Li et al., 2012). It has been widely used for coordination as-
sessment between natural resources, eco-environment, and human
activities (Cheng et al., 2019; Li et al., 2012; Yan et al., 2019). The
combination of the DPSIR framework, CCD, and Econometrics
method can treat nexus analysis of complex multi-system.
China began to adopt the strategy of ‘Reform and Opening up’ in
1978 and has obtained remarkable achievements in social and eco-
nomic development over the past four decades. The average annual
growth rate of GDP in China has increased by 11.9%/year from 1978 to
2018. The total population has grown by 1.45 times to 1.39 billion in
2018, while the urbanization level climbed significantly by 3.32 times
to 59.58% within the same period. According to the report from the
United Nations Development Program (UNDP), China's Human Devel-
opment Index (HDI) has increased from 0.525 in 1975 to 0.758 in
2018, reaching a high level of human development. However, as one
of the important workshops of the world, China's rapid economic
growth was obtained at the costs of resource depletion and by leaving
environmental pollutions at home (Zhu et al., 2014). Many kinds of re-
search have revealed the problems in China related to the loss of culti-
vated land resources (Liu et al., 2019), the risk of mineral resources
depletion (Zeng et al., 2018), the potential decline of regional forest pro-
ductivity and the degradation of forest ecosystem services (Ke et al.,
2019), the shortage of regional water resources and the aggravation of
water pollution (Jiang, 2009), coastal eutrophication (Wang et al.,
2018), and the intensification of air pollution (Li et al., 2019). Resource
depletion and environmental degradation are not only the dominating
limiting factors restraining the sustainability of economic growth in
the long run (Zhang and Wen, 2008), but also one of the negative factors
affecting the quality of life and living standard of people. It is of great sig-
nificance to evaluate the level of China's sustainable development and
share China's sustainable development policies by analyzing the long-
term temporal dynamics of nexus between social-economic develop-
ment and natural resources & the environment.
Therefore, by selecting China as a typical case, firstly, an integrated
indices system was proposed here for systematically evaluating the
tradeoff within a single and multi-system (including cultivated land re-
source, mineral resources, forest resources, water resources, surface
water environment, marine environment, and atmospheric environ-
ment) following the DPSIR framework. Based on this DPSIR framework,
the econometrics methods such as the VAR model were applied to ana-
lyze the causal relationships among driving force, pressure, state, im-
pact, and response, and identify contributions behind the dynamic
changes in key indices, including the Total Energy Consumption, Energy
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.
consumption per unit of GDP, Steel production, Copper production,
Water consumption per unit of GDP, the frequency of acid rain, COD dis-
charge, Ammonia nitrogen discharge, Grain output per unit area, and the
comprehensive level of social, economic, resource and environmental sys-
tem. Finally, a new indices system of CCD selected from the states of DPSIR
framework was proposed to assess the synergies between the social-
economic system and natural resources & environment system of China.
2. Material and methods
2.1. The DPSIR framework combined with CCD assessment
The flowchart of the DPSIR framework combined with the CCD as-
sessment was presented in Fig. 1. Firstly, the indices system following
the DPSIR framework was clarified. Then, indicators for quantifying cou-
pling coordination assessment selected from the indices system of
DPSIR framework were summarized. Finally, the methods used for cal-
culating coupling coordination degree were demonstrated.
2.1.1. The DPSIR framework
The five components involved in DPSIR Framework are intercon-
nected with each other. Driving forces are the drivers that cause pres-
sures on the given systems. The Pressure acts on a given system,
resulting in potential changes in the state of the system. The State is
the condition of the system under pressure and positive controls. The
Impact is the cause-effect of a given system's state on other systems or
human well-being. The Response is the adopted countermeasures to
prevent the deterioration of the state of the given system from the
external high pressures and to mitigate the negative potential im-
pacts (Jia et al., 2019). Here, China's economic-social development,
consisting of demographic and economic development-related indi-
cators (Table A.1, Appendix A), was served as the common Driving
Forces (Zandi et al., 2017). The detailed indicators following the
PSIR (Pressure - State - Impact - Respond) framework for different
subsystems and the data sources are listed in Table A.2 (Appendix
Fig. 1. The flowchart of DPSIR framework combined with CCD.
3
Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
A). Meanwhile, Appendix B showed the calculation process of some
major indicators.
2.1.2. Coupling Coordination Degree Assessment
Indicators representing the State of resources and environment in
the PSIR framework are selected together with social and economic de-
velopment indicators to calculate the CCD (Table A.3, Appendix A). The
calculation steps of CCD are presented as follows.
2.1.2.1. Dimensionless method for treating the comparability of different in-
dices. The construction of dimensionless method is necessary to elimi-
nate the differences of measurement units and dimensions between
indicators in different subsystems, which contribute to enhance the
comparability of indicators and obtain satisfactory evaluation results
(Nikolaou et al., 2004).
(

X ij −X min =ðX max −X min Þ, If X ij is positive indicator
X 0ij
 ð1Þ
X max −X ij =ðX max −X min Þ, If X ij is negative indicator
where Xij′ is the standardized value of index j in the year I; Xij is the
primitive value of index j in the year I; and Xmax, Xmin are the
maximum and minimum values of the jth index in 2000–2016 for each
subsystem, respectively.
2.1.2.2. Calculation of comprehensive level of coupling coordination degree.
The comprehensive level can be calculated after standardizing. The cal-
culation formula of each subsystem for each year is as follows:
n
f ¼ ∑ Di  t i ð2Þ
i¼1
where f is different subsystems; n is the number of specific indices; Di
refers to the dimensionless data of the i-th index; ti is the i-th index
weight. Subsystems of social, economy, natural resources, and environ-
ment are considered equally important (Song et al., 2018; Liu et al.,
2020; Zhang and Li, 2020).
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.
2.1.2.3. Coupling Coordination Degree model. The formula calculating the
total coupling degree of these four subsystems of social development,
economic development, resource utilization, and environmental change
is as follows (Jiang et al., 2017):
2 314
4 f 1  f 2  f 3  f 45
C¼   ð3Þ
f 1þ f 2þ f 3þ f 4
4 The VAR model proposed in 1980 is established based on statistical
T ¼ β1 f 1 þ β2 f 2 þ β3 f 3 þ β4 f 4 ð4Þ
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
D¼ CT ð5Þ
where C is the coupling degree, it reflects the strength of each subsys-
tem, but cannot show the overall coordination of the system (Liu
et al., 2014); f1–f4 is the comprehensive level of the social
development, the economic development, the resource utilization, and
the environmental system respectively; T is the comprehensive evalua-
tion score of these four subsystems; β1–β4 is the weight of these four
subsystems in the comprehensive evaluation, it reflects the
importance of these four subsystems. This study considers that these
four subsystems are equally important (Song et al., 2018; Liu et al.,
2020; Zhang and Li, 2020), so the coefficients are taken as
β1 = β2 = β3 = β4 = 1/4; D is the Coordination degree, it provides a
better evaluation for the degree of coupling coordination between these
four subsystems.
The scores of comprehensive levels between the relationships of all
subsystems can evaluate the coupling coordination degree. The closer
of the comprehensive level value means the higher coupling coordina-
tion degree. On the contrary, the greater of the difference between the
comprehensive level values means the lower coupling coordination de-
gree (Cheng et al., 2019). The value of coordination degree D is divided
into 6 levels (Table A.4, Appendix A) to analyze the coupling coordina-
tion degree accurately and detailedly (Yan et al., 2019).
2.2. Econometrics method for identifying the contributions among the key
indices
The econometrics method based on VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive)
model was applied to identify the contributions among the key indices
(Table A.5, Appendix A). All the steps were performed by the software
EViews 9.0. The framework is described in Fig. A1, Appendix A. The de-
tailed explanation of each link is presented detailly as follows.
2.2.1. Unit root test
This paper has examined the stationarity of the selected variables by
ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) unit root test to avoid spurious regres-
sion. This step is necessary to determine whether it is suitable for the
cointegration test and VAR model (Saboori et al., 2017). If the data is un-
stable, we will do differential processing until the data is stable.
2.2.2. Johansen cointegration test
Johansen cointegration test was employed to verify the long-run re-
lationships among the variables after selecting the appropriate lag pe-
riod. Firstly, non-stationary series need to be differentiated until I
(d) meet the requirements of the cointegration test. Secondly, five pop-
ular criteria are used for lag order selection, including the general-to-
specific sequential Likelihood Ratio (LR) test, Final Prediction Error
(FPE), the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the Schwarz Information
Criterion (SIC), the Hannan-Quinn Criterion (HQC) (Saboori et al.,
2017). Thirdly, the Johansen cointegration test is performed to identify
whether any long-run relationship between the variables exists.
2.2.3. Granger causality tests
Granger causality test is a causal relationship based on “prediction”
proposed by Granger (Granger, 1969). Granger argues that if there is a
4
Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
cointegration relationship between variables, then there is at least one
Granger causality in one direction (Granger, 1988). This paper has con-
ducted the Granger causality tests to verify whether the variables can
predict the future trend of each other. The lag order was confirmed in
the Johansen cointegration test.
2.2.4. Establish VAR model
characteristics of data by making comprehensive use of information of
multiple variables. VAR models are used to predict interconnected
time-series systems and to analyze the dynamic effects of random dis-
turbances on variable systems (Wang and Li, 2019). If roots of the deter-
minant are outside the unit circle, meaning that the VAR model is stable.
VAR model here was applied to analyze the dynamic relationships be-
tween variables through Impulse Response analysis and Variance De-
composition.
2.2.5. Impulse response analysis
Although the Granger causality test can provide the direction of the
relationship between variables, it is unable to stipulate how the volatil-
ity of one variable can extend to the others. Impulse Response analysis
can detect the impact of each variable to one innovation on current
and future values (Zhou et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2016). Impulse Re-
sponse analysis not only fully reflects the dynamic relationship between
various variables, but also impacts the change in an endogenous vari-
able on others in the system. Specifically, it describes impacts on the
current or future value when a random error term is shocked from in-
side or outside the system (Cui et al., 2019).
2.2.6. Variance Decomposition
Impulse Response functions can detect the impact of innovation on
the future changes of a variable, but they can't provide the magnitude
of a variable's impact. Therefore, the Variance Decomposition technique
was employed to compare the influence magnitudes of the variables
surveyed (Zhou et al., 2018). Variance Decomposition can not only de-
compose the variance of one variable in the system into each distur-
bance, but also analyze the innovation of the endogenous variables
from the impact of each structure, so that the importance and contribu-
tion of various structural shocks can be further explored (Cui et al.,
2019). This paper quantifies the degree of influence of different factors
on key indicators by Variance Decomposition.
3. Results
3.1. The driving force for change in natural resources and the ecological en-
vironment
During the period of 1978–2018, remarkable progress in social de-
velopment has been made in China. China's population, urbanization
rate, per capita disposable income of urban residents and rural residents
increased by 0.46 times, 2.32 times, 113.3 times and 108.43 times, re-
spectively (Fig. 2e; Fig. B1 of Appendix B). Approximately 60% of the
total population is currently living in cities with better habitat condition,
and gets paid 2.68 times as much as those living in villages. Meanwhile,
the average annual growth rate of GDP in China has increased by 11.9%/
year, where China's foreign trade closely connecting with other devel-
oped and developing countries contributed greatly to this rapid growth.
The average proportion of the total amount of foreign trade accounting
for GDP is 35.7%, witnessing an inverted-‘U’ temporal trend with a re-
cord high of 64.5% in 2006 (Fig. 2d). Since 1978, the proportion of
China's export of manufacturing goods in China's export trade volume
has been gradually increasing from 47.7% in 1984 to 93.6% in 2017,
while China has simultaneously imported many raw materials and en-
ergy from abroad. For example, the import of ore and metal increased
from 5.5% in 1984 to 11.4% in 2017, and fuel from 0.5% in 1984 to
14.5% in 2017 (Fig. 2a, b). The output of industrial products like
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al. Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

Fig. 2. The Driving Force indicators. (A) China's proportion of commodity exports; (B) China's proportion of commodity imports; (C) The percentage of China's industrial production in the
world; (D) China's industrial structure, economic indicators, and the proportion of the total amount of foreign trade accounting for GDP; (E) China's per capita disposable income, urban-
ization rate, and population.

fertilizer, crude steel, motor vehicle, and cement accounted for 21.0%,
51.3%, 29.1% and 53.8%, respectively of the total global production in
2018 (Fig. 2c).
3.2. Cultivated land resources
In 1994, a new tax revenue sharing system between the central and
local governments was proposed by China government, known as the
‘Tax-Sharing Reform Policy’ (Sections B1, Appendix B), stimulating
rapid local urban built-up area expansion and land-use changes from
non-urban construction land to urban construction land. As shown in
Fig. 3a, China's urban construction land area has increased significantly
since 1994. Meanwhile, cultivated land contributed an average of
46.28% of the newly-added urban construction land from 1999 to
2016, under high pressures of land transformation for meeting the re-
quirements of urban construction-related purposes (Long, 2014).

5
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al. Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

Fig. 3. Cultivated land resources analysis indicators based on the PSIR framework. (A) Pressure indices of cultivated land resources, including the area of agricultural land converted to
construction land, and urban construction land area. (B) Respond indices for cultivated land resources, including the area of protected farmland by embankment and dyke, Effective
irrigation area, China's total agricultural machinery power and Power-tilled area, the consumption of fertilizers. (C) State indices of cultivated land resources, including Cultivated land
area and Cultivated land per capita. (D) Impact indices of cultivated land resources, including Grain output per capita, Total grain output, Grain output per unit area, and Grain self-suffi-
ciency rate.

Furthermore, in most of China's major river watersheds, China had a
long history of deforestation for agriculture purposes in upstream
areas, which resulted in decreasing in soil conservation function. In
1998, the Yangtze River and Songhua River suffered severe floods and
high economic losses. As a result, ‘Forest Law of the People's Republic
of China’ was amended in 1998 and started a project for returning
more farmland into forests in upstream areas of China's seven major riv-
ers by compensating grain to farmers who converted their farmland to
forests (Wang et al., 2012). Because of the implementation of the
Returning Farmland to Forest Program (RFFP) (Sections B2, Appendix
B), a tipping point of remarkably cultivated land shrinking was found
in 1999 (Fig. 3c).
Area of cultivated land has decreased by 10% from 1.344 million km2
in 1978 to 1.203 million km2 in 2017 (Fig. 3c), which is nearly ap-
proaching the Red Line of 1.8 billion mu (1.20 million km2) of Farmland
(a mandatory control line for guaranteeing food security proposed by
China central government) (Sections B3, Appendix B). To mitigate the
negative impacts of the decrease in the cultivated area on total grain
production, a series of measurements, including replacement of labor
with machinery and equipment, increasing the coverage of irrigated ag-
riculture areas, and intensive use of fertilizer and pesticides (Fig. 3b),
was adopted by China central government to ensure increasing grain
productivity. The results of Variance Decomposition methods showed
that the increase of fertilizer use and effective irrigated area contributed
16.2% and 16.1% (Table B1, Appendix B), respectively to the increase in
grain yield per unit area. This shows that positive human regulation can
play a synergistic role in food production. As a result, China's per unit
area grain output has increased by 2.2 times from 2.52 tons/ha in
1978 to 5.62 tons/ha in 2018 (Fig. 3d). Besides, to protect high-quality
farmland against being occupied by urban construction, 1.033 million
km2 of permanent basic farmland has been delimited by China central
government following the ‘Regulations on the Protection of Basic

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X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al. Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

Farmland of China’. Affected by these positive responses, China's grain
self-sufficiency rate has been maintained above 110% and reached
129% in 2016 (Fig. 3d). Meanwhile, the per capita share of grain reached
472 kg in 2018 (Fig. 3d), which was far higher than the international
food security standard of 400 kg per capita. China can feed 19% of the
world's total population with only 8% of the total cultivated land.
3.3. Mineral resources
3.3.1. Energy mineral resources
Since the intensification of the reform and opening up in 1992 and
the access to the WTO in 2001, China's total energy production has dra-
matically increased from 1072.56 million tons of standard coal in 1992
to 3770 million tons of standard coal in 2018 by 3.5 times (Fig. 4a). As
a result, China has surpassed the United States as the world's largest en-
ergy consumer in 2009. The results of Variance Decomposition methods
showed that rapid growth of car ownership and urbanization contrib-
uted 23% and 12% (Table B2, Appendix B), respectively to the total
growth of energy consumption. The development of urbanization
cause explosive growing needs of automobiles resulting rapid rise of en-
ergy and other mineral resources consumption. China's government
tried to maintain a slight increase in reserves of crude oil and natural
gas, and control the degrease in the reserve of coal through adding in-
vests in exploration and exploitation of domestic mineral resources
and expanding energy imports from abroad (Fig. 4c). However, with
the intensive consumption, the Reserve-Production ratio of energy-
related natural mineral resources (coal and natural gas) is undergoing
a significant decline, while External Dependence on crude oil and natu-
ral gas keeps sharp increasing. As shown in Fig. 4d, China's External De-
pendence on crude oil has increased markedly from −13.4% in 1991 to
70.8% in 2018, while China's External Dependence on natural gas has in-
creased from −13.1% in 2000 to 45.3% in 2018. China's Reserve-
Production ratio of coal has decreased from 320 years in 2001 to
71 years in 2017 (Fig. 4e). Therefore, to cut off high energy consump-
tion, a program named ‘Energy-Save and Emission-Abate Activity’ (Sec-
tions B4, Appendix B) was implemented in 2007, including the
promotion of clean energy, the encouragement of Coal to Gas Conver-
sion policy, and the application of energy-saving technology in key
energy-intensive industries. Affected by this positive policy, the com-
prehensive energy consumption in some energy-intensive industries
has been significantly reduced (Fig. 4b). Besides, the proportion of en-
ergy consumption in six high-energy-consuming industries was under-
going decreasing since 2010. In addition, the share of energy production
from natural gas, hydropower, nuclear, and wind power has increased
from 6% in 1978 to 23.5% in 2018 (Fig. 4a). As a result, China's total en-
ergy consumption per GDP dropped from 31.5 TCE/104 USD in 1980 to
3.4 TCE/104 USD in 2018. The results of Variance Decomposition
methods showed that the reduction of comprehensive efficiency and re-
adjustment of energy-intensive industries contributed 23.8% and 9.5%
(Table B3, Appendix B), respectively to the decrease in energy con-
sumptions per GDP. The development of energy-saving technology is
the major important and effective means to reduce energy consumption

Fig. 4. Mineral resources analysis indicators based on the PSIR framework. (A) Pressure indices of mineral resources, including Production of 12 important non-energy mineral resources
and Total energy production. (B) Respond indices of mineral resources, including Fully energy consumption for steel, ethylene, paper and paperboard, cement, Gross coal consumption rate
for fossil-fired power plant, Ten nonferrous metals recovered metals (Copper, Aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, tin, antimony, mercury, magnesium, titanium). (C) State indices of mineral
resources, including Reserves of Coal, Petroleum, Natural gas, and 12 important non-energy mineral resources. (D) Impact indices of mineral resources, including External dependence
of coal, crude oil, natural gas, and 8 important non-energy mineral resources consumption. (E) Impact indices of mineral resources, including Reserve-production ratio of coal, crude
oil, natural gas, and 12 non-energy mineral resources.

7
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.
in China. Despite this progress in energy savings, the energy consump-
tion efficiency of China is still 1.25 times of developed countries with
high environmental-friendly performance. Moreover, the total energy
consumption keeps climbing without seeing the peak and turning
point within the future 10–20 years, showing that the GDP of China is
still closely reliant on high energy consumption.
3.3.2. Non-energy mineral resources
Since the access to the WTO in 2001, China's total production of 12
common non-energy mineral resources (iron, manganese, copper,
lead, zinc, bauxite, molybdenum, gold, silver, iron sulfide, phosphorus,
potassium salt) increased from 383 million tons in 2001 to 1051 million
tons in 2016 by 2.7 times (Fig. 4a). Iron ore accounted for around 50% of
the total production, which showed the importance of the huge steel in-
dustry to the national economy. The results of Variance Decomposition
methods showed that the urbanization rate contributed 17.9% to steel
output and the car production contributed 30.8% to copper output
(Tables B4 and B5, Appendix B). In fact, the development of the steel in-
dustry shows a positive synergy in social development. This reflects that
the development of society and industry has played great roles in pro-
moting the exploitation and utilization of non-energy mineral re-
sources. As a result, the basic reserve of these 12 non-energy mineral
resources has dropped from 30.5 billion tons in 2000 to 26.6 billion
tons in 2016 (Fig. 4c). Therefore, the Reserve-Production ratio of the
10 non-energy mineral resources excluding lead ore and manganese
ore has decreased markedly between 2001 and 2016 (Fig. 4e). The Ex-
ternal Dependence of iron, manganese, copper, lead, zinc, and molybde-
num has rapidly increased (Fig. 4d). The External Dependence of iron
and manganese was 66.9% and 79.5%, respectively in 2016. Australia
and Brazil have also accounted for 89.5% of the total iron ore imports
in 2018. To ensure the stable supply of non-energy mineral resources,
China has put forward a series of policies, including the strategy of di-
versifying natural resources production from both international and do-
mestic markets, the establishment of mineral resources reserve system,
and the recycling and reuse of recovered metals. Under the positive ef-
fect of these policies, the sources of China's iron ore imports have in-
creased from 19 countries in 1992 to more than 80 countries in 2018.
Besides, China's verified reserves of 12 common mineral resources in-
creased from 87.8 billion tons in 2006 to 124.6 billion tons in 2017,
some of which have been recognized as strategic reserves for future ex-
ploitation and utilization. China's output of ten non-ferrous metals
through recovered metals (copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, tin, an-
timony, mercury, magnesium, and titanium) reached 5 million tons in
2017, accounting for 8.9% of the total output.
3.4. Forest resources
The growth of population and the improvement in people's living
standards spurred the rapid development of the building materials in-
dustry, paper products, and furniture manufacturing industry. As a re-
sult, China's output of timber, plywood, and paperboard increased by
1.5 times, 765 times, and 28 times respectively between 1978 and
2016 (Fig. 5a). China's timber production and timber consumptions
were 77.8 million m3 and 609.4 million m3 respectively in 2016. To fill
this huge gap between domestic timber output and consumption, on
the one hand, China has begun to expand the scale of timber import
since 1998. On the other hand, China government encouraged increas-
ing the reuse rate of timber. Some policies like the implementation of
zero tariffs on all types of imported timber and the extended permission
of import rights were adopted. China has imported 96.32 million m3 of
timber and converted timber in 2018, 182 times that in 1978. China's
recycled use of wood accounted for 63.45% of the total wood consump-
tion in 2016.
China's government attaches high importance to the tradeoffs be-
tween the conservation of forest resources and the development of
the wood industry. China began to implement the Three-North Shelter
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Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
Forest Program (TNSFP) (Sections B5, Appendix B) to build a green eco-
logical barrier in northwest China in 1978 to combat desertification. Se-
vere floods and high economic loss in 1998 prompted the China
government to make efforts to promote afforestation in upstream
areas of Yangtze and Huanghe River Watersheds. Furthermore, the ‘For-
est Law of the People's Republic of China’ was revised and put forward
in 1998. The Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP) (Sections B6,
Appendix B) and the Returning Farmland to Forest Program (RFFP)
(Sections B2, Appendix B) were implemented for the forest resources
in 1998 and 1999 respectively, and commercial logging in natural for-
ests was completely banned in 2017. China's afforestation area reached
78.07 million hectares from 1979 to 2017 (Fig. 5b).
Benefitted from the positive forestation policy of the China govern-
ment, China's forest area, forest stock, and forest coverage rate were
220.4 million hectares, 17.56 billion m3, and 22.96% respectively in
2018, increasing by 91.2%, 94.5%, and 91.3% respectively compared
with those in 1978 (Fig. 5c). China led the world in plantation area of
79.54 million hectares in 2018 (National Forestry and Grassland Admin-
istration, PRC). China ranks fifth in forest area and sixth in forest stock in
the world (FAO). Forests play an important role in environmental pro-
tection, especially in carbon emission reduction. The total biomass of
forest vegetation, the total carbon reserves, the annual soil consolida-
tion capacity, and the annual dust retention capacity were 18.364,
8.980, 8.748, 6.158 billion tons respectively in 2018. The annual water
conservation capacity of forests was 628.95 billion m3 in 2018. The an-
nual fertilizer protection capacity and the annual pollutant absorption
capacity were 462 and 40 million tons respectively in 2018 (National
Forestry and Grassland Administration, PRC).
However, China's forest resources quality needs improving. Firstly,
the proportion of forest area and forest stock of the natural forests in
China decreased from 80.3% and 98.1% in 1978 to 63.6% and 80.1% in
2018, respectively (Fig. 5d), while the proportion of the stock of near-
mature forest, mature forest and over-mature forest has decreased
from 71.2% in 1978 to 59.2% in 2018 (Fig. 5d). In China, the newest pub-
lished report showed that plantation stock volume per unit area was
only 43 m3/m2, which was significantly lower than that of natural forest
(99 m3/m2). The loss in population dominance of mature forests would
lower the resilience to natural disasters and ecosystem service function
provided by forests. Secondly, China's forest stock per unit area has been
declining from 1977 to 2014. China's forest stock per unit area has an in-
crease to 79.7 m3/hm2 in 2018, however, it was below the world aver-
age of 110.7 m3/hm2. Mean annual growth per unit and Biomass per
unit have increased by 1.9 times and 1.3 times, respectively between
1976 and 2018.
3.5. Water resources
The demand for urban domestic water was climbing due to the rapid
growth of population, the expansion of the economy, and urbanization.
China's total amount of water use increased by 110% from 543.54 billion
m3 in 1998 to 601.55 billion m3 in 2018. Industrial and agricultural con-
sumption occupied approximately 85% of the total consumption,
whereas the share of domestic water and ecological water consumption
have only accounted for nearly 15% increasing from 10% in 1998 to
17.6% in 2018. There are nine major watersheds in China, where the
Yangtze River watershed accounted for 1/3 of the total water consump-
tion (Fig. 6a). China's total amount of water supply increased from
546.98 billion m3 in 1998 to 601.55 billion m3 in 2018. Although the
proportion of groundwater supply only occupied a small proportion of
the total water sources, decreasing from 18.8% in 1998 to 16.2% in
2018, the long-term over-exploitation of groundwater still causes prob-
lems such as land subsidence and groundwater table decline, especially
in Northern China. One report accomplished in 2004 showed that 31.8%
of Chinese cities witnessed a decline in groundwater level. China is rich
in water resources, with freshwater resources accounting for 6% of the
world's total water resources. However, China's annual average water
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al. Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

Fig. 5. Forest resources analysis indicators based on the PSIR framework. (A) Pressure indices of forest resources, including Production of timber, plywood, paper and paperboard, rubber,
and furniture. (B) Respond indices of forest resources, including the Implementation area of China's response project for forest protection (TNSFP, NFPP, RFFP), the Afforestation area, and
China's imports of timber and sawn timber. (C) State indices of forest resources, including Forest area, Forest stock, and Forest coverage rate. (D) Impact indices of forest resources, includ-
ing the forest structure of composition (natural forest and plantation forest) and age (young, middle-aged, mature).

resources per capita were 2105 m3 from 1997 to 2018, accounting for
only about 1/4 of the world's average (Fig. 6d). Besides, the geographical
distribution of water resources in China is extremely uneven. The Gini
Coefficients for quantifying the distribution fairness of water resources
against the population as well as GDP from 2002 to 2018 were 0.46
and 0.52 respectively, reflecting high distribution inequality of water re-
sources in China (Fig. 6e). The top ten economically developed prov-
inces of China contributed to 60% of the total economic output,
whereas only occupying 36% of the total water resources. Meanwhile,
the top ten provinces with the highest population-density habitat are
57% of the total population, whereas only occupying 36% of the total
water resources. Furthermore, the utilization rate of water resources
also presents significant spatial differences. The utilization rate of
water resources in Yangtze River, Pearl River, and other Southern
River watersheds was maintained below 30% (Fig. 6c). However, the
utilization rate of water resources in northern river watersheds is gener-
ally high. The average annual utilization rate of water resources in the
Haihe River Watershed was 135.9% between 2002 and 2016, which in-
dicated that the water resources in the Haihe River Watershed cannot
meet the local demand without external water diversion from southern
areas.
To solve the contradiction between the rising water consumption
and the unbalanced spatial distribution of water resources, China has
implemented a series of positive water conservancy construction pro-
jects and water conservation projects. China's investment in water con-
servancy projects and the reservoir capacity were CNY 660 billion and
895 billion m3 respectively in 2018, 186 times and 2.2 times that in
1978 (Fig. 6b). The ‘South-to-North Water Diversion Project’ (Sections
B7, Appendix B) has supplied 25.8 billion m3 of water from water-rich
Southern areas to water-shortage Northern areas in the past five
years. In terms of water conservation, the quantity of industrial water
recycled was 85.5 billion m3 in 2018, 4.3 times that in 1991 (Fig. 6b).
The water-saving irrigated area was 36.1 million ha. in 2018, 2.4 times
that in 1998 (Fig. 6b). China's industrial water reuse rate and water-

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X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al. Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

Fig. 6. Water resources analysis indicators based on the PSIR framework. (A) Pressure indices of water resources, including total water consumption in each watershed. (B) Respond indices
of water resources, including Quantity of Industrial Water Recycled, Water use per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value, Water-saving irrigated area, Capacity of reservoirs, Completed
Investment for Water Project Construction, Quantity of water saved, Reuse rate of industrial water, and Water-saving irrigated rate. (C) State indices of water resources, including
utilization rate of water resources in nine river watersheds. (D) State indices of water resources, including total water resources in nine river watersheds and total available water
resources. (E) Impact indices of water resources, including water consumption per unit of GDP, The Gini coefficient of population-water resources, and The Gini coefficient of GDP-
water resources.

saving irrigation rate were 67.8% and 52.9%, respectively in 2018
(Fig. 6b). As a result, China's water consumption per unit of GDP de-
creased from 0.58 m3/dollars in 1997 to 0.04 m3/dollars in 2018,
which reflected the improvement in water resources utilization effi-
ciency. The results of Variance Decomposition methods showed that
the increase of water-saving irrigation rate and the decrease of urban
domestic water consumption contributed 28.3% and 23.3% (Table B6,
Appendix B), respectively to the decrease in water consumption per
unit of GDP. The improvement of agricultural and domestic water use
efficiency resulted in synergistic effect of rational water resources usage.
3.6. Surface water environment
China's surface water quality in nine major watersheds is affected
by domestic sewage discharges, industrial wastewater discharges,
non-point runoff of pollutants related to agricultural production with
high-insensitive fertilizers consumption, and release of pollutants
from livestock and poultry breeding. Over the past 40 years, China's
big consumption of water resources has resulted in massive sewage
discharge. China's annual quantity of wastewater discharged was 52.1
billion m3 in 2018, 3.5 times that in 1978 (Fig. B2a, Appendix B).
However, China has a long history of low wastewater treatment rates
(only 14.86% in 1991 and lower than 70% before 2007, Fig. B2b,
Appendix B). As for agricultural-related pollution, the consumption of
fertilizers per unit area of cultivated land in 2016 was 49.7 tons/km2 in-
creasing by 7.56 times compared with that in 1978. In China, pork is one
of the major diets. The slaughtered fattened hogs were 693.8 million in
2018, 4.3 times that in 1978 (Fig. B2a, Appendix B). The total amount of
wastewater discharged from a pig is as much as that from 7 persons. As
a result, in China, pig farming with an annual 693.8 million Slaughtered
Fattened Hogs equaled to an added 4.86 billion persons' domestic sew-
age discharge. What's worse, a large proportion of pig farms is small-
scaled and distributed scattered without equipping with wastewater
treatment facilities, indicating that most of the wastewaters from pig
farms were discharged into rivers directly. Besides, the Dilution Ratio
of Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast Rivers, and Southwest rivers
has increased by 1.9 times, 1.5 times, 5.3 times, and 1.9 times, respec-
tively from 1997 to 2018, with the highest value of 15%–35% in Huaihe
Watershed (Fig. B2c, Appendix B). Furthermore, according to our esti-
mation and calculation, the proportion of China's provinces with COD,
ammonia nitrogen, and total phosphorus discharges exceeding local
water environmental capacity in 2017 were 16%, 29%, and 19%, respec-
tively. Under these pressures, three of nine major watersheds (Huai
River, Haihe River, and Liaohe River) and three lakes (Taihu Lake,
Chaohu Lake, and Dianchi Lake) with 30% of China's total population
have long been undergoing serious water pollution with high eutrophi-
cation before 2007. As a result, the estimated pollution-induced water
shortage has increased from 8.2 billion m3 in 2003 to 135.6 billion m3
in 2016 (Fig. B2d, Appendix B).
To solve the water pollution, China has adopted many positive mea-
sures including raising the sewage treatment rate, increasing invest-
ment in the treatment of industrial wastewater, and reducing the

10
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.
proportion of wastewater-insensitive industries. The investment in
wastewater treatment, recycled and reused increased from 11.64 billion
yuan in 2001 to 48.99 billion yuan in 2016. The number and treatment
capacity of wastewater treatment plants has increased by 62.7 times
and 263.8 times, respectively from 1978 to 2018 (Fig. B2b, Appendix
B). The total quantity of wastewater treated and wastewater treatment
rate has increased by 11.2 times to 49.8 billion m3 and by 6.4 times to
95.5%, respectively from 1991 to 2018 (Fig. B2b, Appendix B). The re-
sults of Variance Decomposition methods showed that the adjustment
of water pollution industry and the increased investment in the treat-
ment of industrial wastewater pollution contributed 24.1% and 19.9%,
respectively to the reduction in COD discharges, while these two posi-
tive regulations contributed 15.1% and 19%, respectively to the Ammo-
nia Nitrogen discharge (Tables B7 and B8, Appendix B). The reasonable
industrial layout was an obvious synergy for the water environment.
Affected by these positive responses, China's COD discharge has
been decreasing since 2000, while ammonia nitrogen discharge has de-
creased since 2011. China's water quality of the Yangtze River, the Yel-
low River, the Huaihe River, the Haihe River, the Songhuajiang-Liaohe
River, and the Pearl River has been significantly improved. The propor-
tion of surface water monitoring sections with class I–III quality in China
has increased from 27.4% to 67.9% from 1995 to 2017, whereas the pro-
portion of monitoring sections with worse than class V has dropped
from 36.5% to 8.3% in the same period (Fig. 7). Meanwhile, the water
quality ratio of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River better than
Class III in 2016 were 82.7% and 65%, respectively.
3.7. Marine environment
Riverine-runoff of nutrients, coastal industrial wastewater dis-
charges, and coastal aquaculture are three major sources of marine en-
vironmental pollutions. The total volume of industrial wastewater
discharged directly to sea has increased from 630 million tons in 1996
to 1775 million tons in 2011 and then dropped down to 957 million
tons in 2015 following the inverted ‘U’ trend (Fig. B3a, Appendix B).
The riverine fluxes of COD and nutrients into the sea were 13.3 million
tons and 380 thousand tons, respectively in 2017, also following the
inverted ‘U’ shape with the peak for COD in 2010 and nutrients in
2007 (Fig. B3a, Appendix B). However, since 1978, the aquaculture
area has kept increasing from 100 thousand ha. in 1978 to 2043 thou-
sand ha. in 2018. The large number amount of nutrient feed in aquacul-
ture placed great pressure on the marine environment. ‘Marine
Environment Protection Law of the People's Republic of China’ was
put forward in 1983 and revised in 2000, which set the framework of
enforced regulations on marine pollution control.
Firstly, many marine nature reserves were designated with the
number and area of marine nature reserves growing to 271 and 124
thousand km2 in 2019. Secondly, the accumulated completed pollution
treatment projects of wastewater and solid wastes in coastal areas have
reached 37,848 and 3609 from 1996 to 2019 (Fig. B3c, Appendix B).
Benefited from stricter pollution control in watershed areas, China's
coastal water quality has improved slightly since 2004–2005 (Fig. 7).
The proportion of areas with grade I and II water in the Bohai Sea, the
Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea were 67.9%,
82.5%, 46.9%, and 75.8%, respectively in 2017. The water quality of the
East China Sea is relatively poor, which is also an economically devel-
oped area of China. The total area of red tide has decreased from 10.65
thousand km2 in 2000 to 1.41 thousand km2 in 2018.
3.8. Atmospheric environment
As mentioned above, China's rapid economic development relies on
the high consumption of coal-dominated energy. The fossil-fuel power
station has increased by 24 times to 5074 billion kW·h from 1978 to
2018 (Fig. 8a), which is one of the major causes of air pollution. Indus-
trial exhaust is another major source of air pollution. The total volume
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Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
of industrial exhaust emission has increased by 11 times to 69.9 trillion
m3 from 1983 to 2016 (Fig. 8a). The emission of SO2 and smoke reached
8.8 million tons and 8.0 million tons, respectively in 2017 (Fig. 8a).
Furthermore, the number of civil vehicles has increased by 171 times
to 232 million from 1978 to 2018 (Fig. 8a), which also contributed to
the air pollution in urban areas. Finally, with the rapid urbanization,
the building construction area has increased by 205 times to 8223
million m2 from 1980 to 2018 (Fig. 8a), which also causing ambient
dust pollution. Because of air pollution, the premature deaths due to
air pollution have increased by 1.6 times to 448.3 thousand in 2016,
while the illnesses and lay-offs due to air pollution have increased by
35 times to 107.8 thousand (Fig. 8d).
To solve the problem of air pollution, the ‘Law of the People's Repub-
lic of China on the Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution’ was
put forward in 1987, and revised in 1995, 2000, 2015, and 2018. Fur-
thermore, China government released the ‘Air Pollution Prevention
and Control Action Plan’ in 2013. Firstly, China strives to improve the
treatment of exhaust emissions. The number of waste gas treatment fa-
cilities targeting desulfurization, dedusting, and denitration has in-
creased by 2.8 times to 290 thousand sets from 1996 to 2015 (Fig. 8b).
The treatment investment in industrial exhaust treatment has increased
by 4.9 times to CNY 44.6 billion from 2000 to 2017 (Fig. 8b). Secondly, as
described above, the decrease in fossil-fuel consumption and increasing
proportions of clean energy consumption, and energy efficiency in
China have also had a positive impact on the atmospheric environment.
Furthermore, the national limits for emissions from fuelled vehicles
(HC, NOx, CO, and PM) have become stricter. The emission standard of
China II (Similar to EURO II) was forcedly implemented from 2004 to
2006, while China III (Similar to EURO III) took effect in 2007. The emis-
sion standard of China VI (Similar to EURO VI) was legally effective since
2014, while fuelled vehicles were required to comply with China V
(Similar to EURO V) since 2017. Finally, China government tried to im-
prove air quality by afforestation and by greening in urban built-up
areas. The green coverage rate of urban built-up areas has increased
by 2.4 times to 41.11% from 1986 to 2018 (Fig. 8b).
Benefited from the aforementioned positive responses of China's
government, the proportion of cities with annual acid rain fre-
quency > 50% in China has decreased from 18.3% in 1996 to 10.1% in
2016 (Fig. 8c). The results of Variance Decomposition methods showed
that the reduction in the proportion of fossil-fuel energy consumption
has contributed 26.9% to the decrease in acid rain frequency (Table B9,
Appendix B). Reducing the use of traditional energy can reduce energy
consumption and alleviate the atmospheric pollution. Besides, the
over standard rate of SO2, NO2, and particulate matter has reduced in
fluctuation since 2003–2005 (Fig. 8c). The over standard rate of SO2,
NO2, and particulate matter was 0.88%, 38.94%, and 66.37%,
respectively in 2017 (Fig. 8c), indicating that particulate matter has
become a major air pollutant in recent years. As revealed by our
estimations, the proportion of China's provinces that SO2 and NOx
emissions exceeding the local environmental capacity were 0% and
29%, respectively in 2015. This also proves that SO2 treatment has
achieved remarkable results. Although the pollution of SO2, NO2, and
particulate matter have been effectively controlled, due to complex
chemical reactions, haze pollution is still becoming more frequent in
China with an annual average incidence of 30% in recent 10 years
(Fig. B4, Appendix B).
3.9. Result of Coupling Coordination Degree Assessment
The result of CCD showed that China's social development, economic
development, resource reserve, and environmental quality have devel-
oped steadily and coordinated from 2000 to 2016. As shown in Fig. A2
(Appendix A), the comprehensive level of social development and eco-
nomic development showed an exponentially increasing trend, indicat-
ing that China's economy and society keep growing with no signs of any
stop. Although rapid economic growth resulted in high consumptions of
 X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.

12
Fig. 7. The state of water environment in nine watersheds and coastal sea areas of China. (A) Water quality ratio of the Northwest Rivers watershed. (B) Water quality ratio of the Haihe River watershed. (C) Water quality ratio of the Songhuajiang-
Liaohe River watershed. (D) Water quality ratio of the Bohai Sea. (E) Water quality ratio of the Huaihe River watershed. (F) Water quality ratio of the Yellow River watershed. (G) Water quality ratio of the Yellow Sea. (H) Water quality ratio of the
Yangtze River watershed. (I) Water quality ratio of the East China Sea. (J) Water quality ratio of the Southwest Rivers watershed. (K) Water quality ratio of the Zhujiang River watershed. (L) Water quality ratio of the South China Sea. (M) Water quality
ratio of the Southeast Rivers watershed. (N) The total area of red tide and Frequency of Marine disasters caused by red tides.
Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.
Fig. 8. Atmospheric environment analysis indicators based on the PSIR framework.
(A) Pressure indices of atmospheric environment, including the emissions of industrial
waste gas, SO2, NOx, smoke, the building construction area, the thermal power, the
central heating area, and the civil vehicle. (B) Respond indices of atmospheric
environment, including the Number of waste gas treatment facilities, the Energy
Consumption per Unit of GDP, the Treatment investment of industrial waste gas
pollution source, the Treatment investment of industrial waste gas pollution source, and
the Greenspace rate of built district. (C) State indices of atmospheric environment,
including the Proportion of cities with acid rain frequency > 50% (60% before 2005) in
China, the Annual average haze incidence, and the over standard rate of particulate matter,
SO2, and NO2. (D) Impact indices of atmospheric environment, including the premature
deaths, the illnesses and lay-offs, and chronic bronchitis caused by air pollution.
exhausted natural resources as mentioned above, the comprehensive
level of resource reserve still maintained a stable trend despite little
fluctuations due to the implementation of energy-saving policy and in-
creasing imports from other countries. Furthermore, rapid economic
and social development bring more investments in improving environ-
mental quality, the comprehensive level of which keeps a general trend
of positive climbing with little fluctuations since 2004. In the early
stages of 2000–2012, although the CCD showed a growing trend, the
comprehensive level of economic development and social development
were lower than that of natural resource reserve and environmental
quality, indicating that the Chinese population shared good environ-
mental quality with relative low disposable income. However, since
2013, the comprehensive level of economic development and social de-
velopment have surpassed those of natural resource reserve and envi-
ronmental quality, which combined with the climbing trend of CCD
and the comprehensive level of environmental quality indicated that
the Chinese have lived a rich life with better environmental quality
(Table A.6, Appendix A).
The results of Variance Decomposition methods showed that re-
source utilization has contributed 21.3% and 35.4% (Table B10,
Appendix B), respectively to the social development and economic de-
velopment, reflecting the significant driving effect of resource utiliza-
tion on China's development. Social development has contributed
57.1% and 61.1% to resource utilization and environmental change re-
spectively (Table B10, Appendix B), reflecting that social progress is
the main factor driving the change of natural resource reserve and envi-
ronmental quality. The synergy between society, resources, and the en-
vironment is strong. To tackle the emerging challenge of resource
constraint, environmental pollution, and ecosystem degradation,
China government has begun to promote ecological civilization con-
struction since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of
China in 2012. Therefore, China's comprehensive level of environmental
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Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
quality is gradually rising in coordination with social development and
economic development after 2013. In addition, the proportion of the
tertiary industry in China has officially exceeded that of the secondary
industry since 2013, indicating that China's economic and social devel-
opment has become more environmental-friendly. China has entered
the stage of pre-eminently coordinated development of the society,
economy, resources, and environment since 2013.
4. Discussions
4.1. The relationship among social-economic development and resource
utilization & environmental quality in China, and its implications
Social development and economic development relies on promoting
urbanization rate, expanding urban built-up area and improving peo-
ple's wealth level. Rapid urbanization further stimulates the rising
needs of cars production. Car output and ownership result in rapid con-
sumption of non-energy mineral resources and energy mineral re-
sources. The total contribution rate of car production and urbanization
rate to copper production and energy consumption are both 34% in
China. Besides, the contribution rate of comprehensive energy efficiency
and water-saving irrigation rate to energy and water consumption per
unit of GDP is 24% and 28%, respectively. Economic growth can not
only provide advanced infrastructure and service facilities for social de-
velopment, but also provide financial security and technical support for
environmental protection, thus reducing the consumption of resources.
Social development can promote economic development and rational
use of resources, further alleviating environmental pollution (Cheng
et al., 2019). Rational resource exploitation planning is in need of
promoting the synergy between resource utilization and environ-
mental improvement, further maintaining the sustainable devel-
opment of the economy and society (Peng et al., 2020). China's
positive trade-off policies of reducing over-reliance on natural re-
sources prevent the social-economic system from ‘Drag Effect’ by
resource depletion (Zhang et al., 2020) and ‘Resource Curse’
(Haseeb et al., 2021).
Moreover, the effect of supervisor regulation on environmental
quality improvement is obvious. The adjustment of energy structure
contributes 26% to acid rain control. The total contribution rate of
water pollution industry adjustment and the water pollution treat-
ment investment to COD and Ammonia nitrogen discharge reached
43% and 33%, respectively. It's well-documented that the adjustment
of energy consumption structure and industrial structure is an im-
portant way to improve environmental quality (Zhang and Wen,
2008). In fact, the differences in pollution emission intensity, emis-
sion reduction technology, greening production technology, market
mechanism, economic structure, international trade, and pollution
prevention & control investment will have different degrees of im-
pacts on environmental quality (Xu, 2012; Antweiler et al., 2001;
Torras and Boyce, 1998).
CCD assessment showed the dynamic coupling relationship be-
tween economic growth and changes in resources reserves and envi-
ronmental quality in China. China also followed the road of ‘grow
first, clean up later’ like other economic-developed countries. How-
ever, China has shortened significantly the period of pollution by
positive response policies. In the early stages, increased pollution is
considered an acceptable result of rapid economic growth, and peo-
ple are more interested in wealth growth and material needs than
cleaning air and water. When the social-economic system is devel-
oped approaching a certain point, the comprehensive level reaches
0.5 for China, government and people will pay more attention to en-
vironmental quality, which leads to the proposal of stricter environ-
mental protection legislation and regulation (Arrow et al., 1995;
Dasgupta et al., 2002). Improvement of the resource utilization effi-
ciency and environmental quality is the major factor to promote
the coordinated development.
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.
4.2. The contributions and limitations of proposed evaluation model and
method
DPSIR framework is acted as an effective tool to support decision-
making by structuring data to provide reasonable cause and effect ex-
planations (Tscherning et al., 2012). One contribution of this study is a
new systematic DPSIR framework comprising of 122 indicators were
proposed for evaluating the sustainability of economic and social devel-
opment by considering the negative impacts on exhausted natural re-
sources and environment, which not only can be used for China but
also suitable for other similar evaluation cases. The 122 indicators in
the DPSIR framework were divided into five specific parts instead of a
comprehensive assessment by taking the five parts as a whole, and we
focused on analyzing the interconnection between driver and pressure,
the impacts of states, and the states under the pressures and positive re-
sponses by applying a package of Causality Analysis Methods such as
Granger causality tests.
Another contribution of this study is many new interesting indica-
tors were proposed to be included in the DPSIR framework for culti-
vated land resources, mineral resources, forest resources, water
resources, surface water environment, marine environment, and atmo-
spheric environment. For example, the indicator of Grain self-
sufficiency rate was proposed and calculated for evaluating the impact
of decreasing cultivated areas in China on grain security, while the
two newly proposed indicators of External Dependence and Reserve -
Production ratio were applied to estimate the impacts of large con-
sumptions in exhausted natural mineral resources on sustainability of
economy. Besides, the indices of Comprehensive energy efficiency
index and the proportion of energy consumption in the energy-
intensive industries in the total energy consumption were proposed as
major response indicators to quantify contributions of these positive
regulations to maintenance in the state of natural resource reserves. In
addition, the newly developed indicators of Gini Coefficients were
used for quantifying the distribution fairness of water resource to pop-
ulation and GDP. The indicators of Dilution Ratio, Proportion of cities
that discharges of COD, ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus ex-
ceeding water environmental capacity, Pollution-Induced Water
Shortage were proposed to quantify the impacts of pollution of
China's seven major river watersheds. Finally, the two indicators of
Exceeding Standard Rate of SO2 , NO2 , Particulate Matter, and
Annual Average Haze Incidence were proposed to quantify the
overall healthy state of atmospheric environment. The three newly
proposed indicators of Premature Deaths Due to Air Pollution,
Chronic Bronchitis Caused by Air Pollution, and Proportion of cities
that discharges SO2 and NO2 exceeding atmospheric environmental
capacity were proposed to systematically assess the negative
impacts of air pollutions.
The third contribution of this study is the integration of CCD assess-
ment into nexus analysis framework for quantifying the synergies of
multi-systems. The limits of the DPSIR framework are also obvious, be-
cause it only focuses on analyzing the causal relationship within a single
system and disregard the influence of other external factors on the an-
alyzed system, so it is difficult to address complex interrelationships
such as global or national level analysis (Carr et al., 2007). However,
CCD is complementary to the DPSIR framework theoretically because
it can analyze the interaction relationship between complex systems
when a comprehensive and systematic analysis is conducted. Only the
indicators for characterizing the states of economic & social develop-
ment and natural reserve & environmental quality were included as
major indices of CCD assessment instead of considering all the DPSIR in-
dicators, which can be clarified more clearly for demonstrating the real
comprehensive level and coupling coordination degree of a given study
area. Besides, we conducted some initial attempts to integrate the cross-
sectoral variables through applying VAR model to identify the contribu-
tion of a given indicator on other affected indices such as the industry
regulation and investment in reducing COD discharge. VAR model can
14
Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
solve the problem of simultaneity and endogeneity across systems (Vo
et al., 2019).
There are some limitations of this study. First, due to the lack of data,
the time ranges of DPSIR for cultivated land resources, mineral re-
sources, forest resources, water resources, surface water environment,
marine environment, and atmospheric environment can't be consoli-
dated. The data for cultivated land resource and mineral resources can
cover 40 years of analysis, whereas the data for forest resources are
not continuous, and time range of available data for environments was
relatively short. Therefore, CCD of the overall development in China be-
fore 2000 can't be obtained. The heavy pollution history of China and
long stages of the maladjusted before 2000, especially in the 1990s,
can't be demonstrated by direct time series of data. Another limitation
of this study is the degradation and restoration of wetland ecosystems,
grass ecosystems, and biodiversity were not included also due to lack of
available data.
5. Conclusions
This study analyzes the internal causal relationship, tradeoffs, and
synergies among social-economic development, cultivated land re-
sources, natural mineral resources, forest resources, water resources,
surface water environment, marine environment, and atmospheric en-
vironment in China following the DPSIR framework by a combination
of CCD assessment and econometric methods. The study showed that
driven by rapid social and economic development, China is experienc-
ing a decrease in cultivated land area & mineral resources reserves,
and an increase in atmospheric particulate pollution. Meanwhile, the
forest structure showed a trend of juvenility and simplification, and
the water shortage caused by water pollution witnessed a potential
growth. External Dependence of some important mineral resources in-
creased. However, due to positive regulations and responsive policies
towards sustainable development, the Grain Self-sufficiency rate
remained stable. China has controlled effectively the pollution of acid
rain. The CCD assessment results showed that China has reached a
level of pre-eminently coordination since the turning point of 0.8 in
2012. In summary, China did not collapse and the social-economic
developments have not ever suffered from natural resource curse and
environmental pollution. China guaranteed food supply, stopped forest
degradation, avoided pollution-induced healthy crisis & life-shortening,
and maintained the synergies between social-economic system and
natural resources & environment system mainly benefiting from series
of positive tradeoff policies. The delimitation on 1.033 million km2 of
permanent strictly protected basic farmland has effectively prevented
cultivated land from rapid encroachment by urban expansion and
safeguarded food security. China's afforestation area reached 78.07
million hectares by three major afforestation projects (TNSFP,
NFPP, and RFFP) from 1979 to 2017. The ‘South-to-North Water Di-
version Project’ has supplied 25.8 billion m3 of water from water-
rich Southern areas to water-shortage Northern areas in the past
five years. The proposal and implication of the ‘Energy Savings and
Pollutants Reduction’ policy since 2007 contributed greatly to the
maintenance of the base of natural mineral resources, environmental
improvement, and the coordinated sustainable development of
China.
CCD is an important complement to the DPSIR framework theoreti-
cally because it can analyze the synergies between complex systems
when a comprehensive and systematic analysis is conducted. Econo-
metric methods allowed more quantitative analysis of the nexus
among different subsystems and indices of DPISR. The combination of
CCD assessment and econometric methods following the DPISR frame-
work fully demonstrates its superiority in the field of quantitative
nexus analysis. Besides, a new indices system for nexus analysis of sus-
tainability among cultivated land resources, natural mineral resources,
forest resources, water resources, surface water environment, marine
environment, and atmospheric environment systems following the
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al. Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

DPSIR framework is proposed. These proposed indices systems provide Acknowledgements

a new perspective of how to identify the complex nexus of social-
economic development and resource-environment system, which is
also feasible and flexible for other case studies.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Xiang Sun: Conceptualization, Methodology, Project administration,
Resources, Writing – review & editing. BoKuan Zhu: Conceptualization,
Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing –
original draft, Writing – review & editing. Shuai Zhang: Investigation.
Heng Zeng: Investigation. Kuai Li: Investigation. Bin Wang: Investiga-
tion. ZhanFeng Dong: Methodology, Resources. ChangChang Zhou:
Methodology, Resources.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ-
ence the work reported in this paper.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Founda-
tion of China [grant number 71964002]; the Natural Science Foundation
of Guangxi Province, China [grant number 2018GXNSFAA050040]; the
National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant num-
ber 2017YFC1405100]; the Humanities and social sciences fund of the
Ministry of Education [grant number 17YJCZH153]; the Scientific
Research Foundation of Guangxi University [grant number XGZ150300],
and the Science and Technology Major Project of Guangxi [grant number
AA17129001].
Data and materials availability
All data are available in the main text or the supplementary mate-
rials. The raw data that support the findings of this study are available
from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Additional
data related to this paper may be requested from the authors.

Appendix A

Table A.1
The indicators of common driving forces.

Category Subcategory Indicator Data sources

Social Demographic 1. Population; China Statistical Yearbook

development indicator 2. Population density; The World Bank
3. Natural Growth Rate China Statistical Yearbook
Urban 1. Urbanization rate China Statistical Yearbook
development
Living 1. Per capita disposable income of urban residents and rural China Statistical Yearbook; China Health Statistics Yearbook; Statistical
standard residents Communique of The People's Republic of China on the 2019 National Economic
and Social Development
Economic Industry 1. Proportion of primary industry, secondary industry, and China Statistical Yearbook
development tertiary industry
2. The percentage of China's fertilizer production in the world Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations; China Statistical
Yearbook; National Bureau of Statistics of China; China Industry Statistical
Yearbook; International Statistical Yearbook
3. The percentage of China's crude steel production in the world World Steel Association; China Statistical Yearbook
4. The percentage of China's motor vehicle production in the The International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers; China Auto-
world motive Industry Yearbook; China Statistical Yearbook
5. The percentage of China's cement production in the world United States Geological Survey; Almanac of China Building Materials Industry;
China Industry Statistical Yearbook; China Statistical Yearbook; United Nations
Statistics Division
Foreign Trade 1. The proportion of the total amount of foreign trade accounting The World Bank
for GDP
2. The proportion of ore and metal, manufacturing industry, fuel, The World Bank
food, and agricultural raw materials exports accounting for
commodity exports
3. The proportion of ore and metal, manufacturing industry, fuel, The World Bank
food, and agricultural raw materials imports accounting for
commodity imports
Economic 1. China's GDP The World Bank
indicators 2. China's per capita GDP The World Bank
3. China's GDP growth The World Bank

Table A.2
The detailed indices system for characterizing Pressure, State, Impact and Response of natural resources and environments.

Category Subcategory Indicator Data sources

Cultivated Pressure 1. Area of agricultural land converts to construction land China Land and Resources Statistical Yearbook
land 2. Urban construction land area China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
resource State 1. Cultivated land area China Statistical Yearbook, China Land and Resources Statistical Yearbook
2. Cultivated Land per Capita China Land and Resources Statistical Yearbook
Impact 1. Grain self-sufficiency rate Appendix B, Sections B8
2. Grain output per capita National Bureau of Statistics of China
3. Total grain output The World Bank
4. Grain output per unit area China Grain Yearbook; China Rural Statistical Yearbook
Respond 1. Area of protected farmland by embankment and dyke China Water Statistical Yearbook

(continued on next page)

15
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.
Table A.2 (continued)
Category Subcategory Indicator
2. China's total agricultural machinery power
3. Power-tilled area
4. Consumption of pesticides and fertilizers
5. Effective irrigation area
Mineral Pressure 1. Total energy production
resource
2. Total Energy Consumption
3. Total raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas production
4. Ore production of Iron, Manganese, Copper, Lead, Zinc, Bauxite,
Molybdenum, Gold, Silver, Pyrite, Phosphorus, Potash
5. Railway mileage
6. Highway mileage
7. Civil Vehicle (Pressure for Energy mineral resources)
8. Car production (Pressure for Non-energy mineral resources)
9. Total area under construction and completed
10. Total weight of household appliances output
State 1. Reserves of raw coal, crude oil, natural gas, Iron, Manganese,
Copper, Lead, Zinc, Bauxite, Molybdenum, Gold, Silver, Pyrite,
Phosphorus, Potash
Impact 1. External dependence of raw coal, crude oil, natural gas, Iron,
Manganese, Copper, Lead, Zinc, Bauxite, Molybdenum, Gold, Silver,
Pyrite, Phosphorus, Potash
2. Reserve - Production ratio of raw coal, crude oil, natural gas, Iron,
Manganese, Copper, Lead, Zinc, Bauxite, Molybdenum, Gold, Silver,
Pyrite, Phosphorus, Potash
3. Energy consumption per unit of GDP
Respond 1. Comprehensive energy efficiency index
2. The proportion of energy consumption in the energy-intensive
industries in the total energy consumption
3. Gross Coal Consumption Rate for Fossil-Fired Power Plant
4. Fully Energy Consumption for Cement, Ethylene, Steel, Paper and
Paperboard
5. Ten Nonferrous Metals Recovered metals (Copper, aluminum, lead, The Yearbook of Nonferrous Metals Industry of China
zinc, nickel, tin, antimony, mercury, magnesium, titanium)
Forest Pressure 1. Timber consumption
resources
2. Timber production
3. Production of Plywood, Paper and paperboard, Rubber, furniture
State 1. Forest area
2. Forest stock
3. Forest coverage rate
Impact 1. Proportion of plantation and natural forest area
2. Proportion of plantation and natural forest stock
3. Proportion of young forest, middle aged forest, mature forest area National Forest Resources Inventory Report
4. Proportion of young forest, middle aged forest, mature forest stock National Forest Resources Inventory Report
Respond 1. Imports of timber and sawn timber
2. Afforestation area
3. Area of Natural Forest Conservation Program, Grain for Green
Project, and Three-North Shelter Forest Program
Water Pressure 1. Total Water Consumption
resources
2. Water Consumption from The Yellow River Watershed
3. Water Consumption from The Yangtze River Watershed
4. Water Consumption from The Huaihe River Watershed
5. Water Consumption from The Haihe River Watershed
6. Water Consumption from The Songhuajiang-Liaohe River Water-
shed
7. Water Consumption from The Zhujiang River Watershed
8. Water Consumption from The Southeast Rivers Watershed
9. Water Consumption from The Southwest Rivers Watershed
10. Water Consumption from The Northwest Rivers Watershed
State 1. Total Available Water Resources
2. Total Water Resources of The Yellow River Watershed
3. Total Water Resources of The Yangtze River Watershed
4. Total Water Resources of The Huaihe River Watershed
5. Total Water Resources of The Haihe River Watershed
6. Total Water Resources of The Songhuajiang-Liaohe River
16
Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
Data sources
China Agriculture Statistical Report; China Statistical Yearbook
China Agriculture Yearbook; China Agricultural Machinery Industry Year-
book; China Agriculture Statistical Report
China Rural Statistical Yearbook; China Statistical Yearbook on Environment
China Rural Statistical Yearbook
China Energy Statistical Yearbook; National Bureau of Statistics of China; BP
Amoco
China Energy Statistical Yearbook; National Bureau of Statistics of China; BP
Amoco
China Energy Statistical Yearbook; National Bureau of Statistics of China; BP
Amoco
National Bureau of Statistics of China; China Mining Yearbook
National Bureau of Statistics of China
National Bureau of Statistics of China
China Statistical Yearbook of The Tertiary Industry; China Statistical Year-
book; China Statistical Abstract; Year Book Of China Transportation & Com-
munications; China Automotive Industry Yearbook
China Statistical Yearbook
China Statistical Yearbook
Appendix B, Sections B9
National Bureau of Statistics of China; BP Amoco; United States Geological
Survey; China Land and Resources Statistical Yearbook; China Land &
Resources Almanac
Appendix B, Sections B10
Appendix B, Sections B11
Appendix B, Sections B12
Appendix B, Sections B13
Appendix B, Sections B14
China Electricity Council; China Electric Power Yearbook; China Industry
Statistical Yearbook; China Energy Statistical Yearbook
China Energy Statistical Yearbook; China Paper Association; China Petro-
leum and Chemical Industry Federation; China Cement Association; China
Iron and Steel Association
China Statistical Yearbook on Environment, China Forestry and Grassland
Statistical Yearbook
China Forestry and Grassland Yearbook; China Statistical Yearbook
China Statistical Yearbook; China Industry Statistical Yearbook
National Forest Resources Inventory Report
National Forest Resources Inventory Report
National Forest Resources Inventory Report
National Forest Resources Inventory Report
National Forest Resources Inventory Report
China Statistical Yearbook; National Bureau of Statistics of China
China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook; China Statistical Year-
book on Environment; China Statistical Yearbook
China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook; China Statistical Year-
book on Environment
China Statistical Yearbook; China Water Statistical Yearbook; China Envi-
ronment Yearbook
Yellow River Water Resources Bulletin
Chang Jiang & Southwest Rivers Water Resources Bulletin
Huaihe River Basin Water Resources Bulletin
Haihe River Water Resources Bulletin
Songliao Basin Water Resources Bulletin
Water Resources Bulletin of The Pearl River
Taihu Basin & Southeast Rivers Water Resources Bulletin
Chang Jiang & Southwest Rivers Water Resources Bulletin
China Water Resources Bulletin
China Statistical Yearbook; China Water Statistical Yearbook; China Envi-
ronment Yearbook
Yellow River Water Resources Bulletin
Chang Jiang & Southwest Rivers Water Resources Bulletin
Huaihe River Basin Water Resources Bulletin
Haihe River Water Resources Bulletin
Songliao Basin Water Resources Bulletin
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al.
Table A.2 (continued)
Category Subcategory Indicator
Watershed
7. Total Water Resources of The Zhujiang River Watershed
8. Total Water Resources of The Southeast Rivers Watershed
9. Total Water Resources of The Southwest Rivers Watershed
10. Total Water Resources of The Northwest Rivers Watershed
Impact 1.Water Consumption Per Unit of GDP
2. The proportion of cities with groundwater drawdown
3. Land subsidence area
4. The Gini Coefficients for quantifying the distribution fairness of
water resource to population and GDP
Respond 1. Completed Investment for Water Project Construction
2. Capacity of Reservoirs
3. Quantity of Water Saved
4. Per Capita Water Consumption for rural Residential Use
5. Per Capita Water Consumption for urban Residential Use
6. Recycled rate of industrial water
7. Water saving irrigation rate
8. Water Use Per 10,000 Yuan of Industrial Added Value
Surface water Pressure 1. Annual Quantity of Wastewater Discharged
environment 2. Discharge of COD and Ammonia Nitrogen
3. Slaughtered Fattened Hogs
4. Consumption of pesticides and fertilizers
State 1. Water Quality Ratio of The Yellow River Watershed
2. Water Quality Ratio of The Yangtze River Watershed
3. Water Quality Ratio of The Huaihe River Watershed
4. Water Quality Ratio of The Haihe River Watershed
5. Water Quality Ratio of The Songhuajiang-Liaohe River Watershed
6. Water Quality Ratio of The Zhujiang River Watershed
7. Water Quality Ratio of The Southeast Rivers Watershed
8. Water Quality Ratio of The Southwest Rivers
9. Water Quality Ratio of The Northwest Rivers Watershed
Impact 1. Pollution-Induced Water Shortage
2. The Dilution Ratio of The Yellow River Watershed
3. The Dilution Ratio of The Yangtze River Watershed
4. The Dilution Ratio of The Huaihe River Watershed
5. The Dilution Ratio of The Haihe River Watershed
6. The Dilution Ratio of The Zhujiang River Watershed
7. The Dilution Ratio of The Southeast Rivers Watershed
8. The Dilution Ratio of The Southwest Rivers
9. Proportion of cities that discharged pollution of COD, ammonia
nitrogen and total phosphorus have exceeded their water environ-
ment capacity
Respond 1. Investment in Industrial Wastewater Treatment
2. Number of Wastewater Treatment Plant
3. Treatment Capacity of Wastewater Treatment Plant
4. Total Quantity of Wastewater Treated
5. Wastewater Treatment Rate
6. Proportion of output value of highly polluting industries in total
output value
7. Investment of Wastewater Treatment, Recycled and Reused
Marine Pressure 1. Total Volume of Industrial Waste Water Discharged Directly to Sea
environment by Coastal Regions
2. Riverine Fluxes of COD, Petroleum, Heavy Metal, Arsenic, Nutrients Ministry of Ecology and Environment of The People's
into The Sea
3. Total Area of Red Tide
4. Frequency of Marine Disasters Caused by Red Tides
5. Mariculture area
State 1. Water Quality Ratio of The Bohai Sea, The Yellow Sea, The East Sea, Ministry of Ecology and Environment of The People's Republic of China
The South Sea
Impact 1. Direct economic losses caused by red tide
Respond 1. Number of Marine Nature Reserves
2. Area of Marine Nature Reserves
3. Completed Pollution Treatment Projects of Waste Water in Coastal China Marine Statistical Yearbook
Regions
4. Completed Pollution Treatment Projects of Solid Wastes in Coastal China Marine Statistical Yearbook
Regions
Atmospheric Pressure 1. Total Volume of Industrial Waste Gas Emission
environment 2. Emission of Sulphur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Smoke
3. Civil Vehicle
17
Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180
Data sources
Water Resources Bulletin of The Pearl River
Taihu Basin & Southeast Rivers Water Resources Bulletin
Chang Jiang & Southwest Rivers Water Resources Bulletin
China Water Resources Bulletin
Appendix B, Sections B15
Bulletin of China Geological Environment
Bulletin of China Geological Environment
Appendix B, Sections B16
China Water Conservancy Yearbook
China Rural Statistical Yearbook; China Water Statistical Yearbook; China
Statistical Yearbook; China Water Conservancy Yearbook
China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
China Urban-Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook
China Statistical Yearbook
Appendix B, Sections B17
Appendix B, Sections B18
China Statistical Yearbook
China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
China Statistical Yearbook on Environment; China Environment Yearbook
China Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Yearbook; China Rural Statistical
Yearbook
China Rural Statistical Yearbook; China Statistical Yearbook on Environment
Yellow River Water Resources Bulletin
Chang Jiang & Southwest Rivers Water Resources Bulletin
Huaihe River Basin Water Resources Bulletin
Haihe River Water Resources Bulletin
Songliao Basin Water Resources Bulletin
Water Resources Bulletin of The Pearl River
Taihu Basin & Southeast Rivers Water Resources Bulletin
Chang Jiang & Southwest Rivers Water Resources Bulletin
China Water Resources Bulletin
Appendix B, Sections B19
Appendix B, Sections B20
Appendix B, Sections B20
Appendix B, Sections B20
Appendix B, Sections B20
Appendix B, Sections B20
Appendix B, Sections B20
Appendix B, Sections B20
Appendix B, Sections B21
National Bureau of Statistics of China
China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
Appendix B, Sections B22
China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
China Marine Statistical Yearbook
Republic of China
Ministry of Ecology and Environment of The People's Republic of China, China
Statistical Yearbook of The Tertiary Industry, China Statistical Yearbook
Ministry of Ecology and Environment of The People's Republic of China, China
Statistical Yearbook of The Tertiary Industry, China Statistical Yearbook
China Rural Statistical Yearbook
Bulletin of China Marine Disaster
Report on China marine protection industry
Report on China marine protection industry; Ministry of Natural Resources
of the People's Republic of China
China Statistical Yearbook on Environment; China Environment Yearbook;
China Statistical Yearbook on Environment; China Environment Yearbook;
China Statistical Yearbook of The Tertiary Industry
China Statistical Yearbook of The Tertiary Industry; China Statistical
(continued on next page)
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al. Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

Table A.2 (continued)

Category Subcategory Indicator Data sources

Yearbook; China Statistical Abstract; Year Book Of China Transportation &

Communications; China Automotive Industry Yearbook
4. Building Construction Area China Statistical Yearbook; China Statistical Abstract; Statistical Yearbook of
The Chinese Investment in Fixed Assets; Finance Yearbook of China
5. Thermal power generation China Statistical Yearbook; China Statistical Abstract; China Energy Statisti-
cal Yearbook
State 1. Proportion of Cities with Acid Rain Frequency > 50% (60% Before China Environment Yearbook
2005) In China
2. Exceeding Standard Rate of SO2, NO2, Particulate Matter Appendix B, Sections B23
3. Annual Average Haze Incidence Appendix B, Sections B24
Impact 1. Premature Deaths Due to Air Pollution Appendix B, Sections B25
2. Illnesses and Lay-Offs Due to Air Pollution Appendix B, Sections B26
3. Chronic Bronchitis Caused by Air Pollution Appendix B, Sections B27
4. Proportion of cities that discharged pollution of SO2 and NO2 have Appendix B, Sections B28
exceeded their atmospheric environment capacity
Respond 1. Number of Waste Gas Treatment Facilities China Statistical Yearbook on Environment
2. Treatment Investment of Industrial Waste Gas Pollution Source China Statistical Yearbook on Environment
3. Green Coverage Rate of Built District China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
4. Green Space Rate of Built District China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
5. Energy Consumption Per Unit of GDP National Bureau of Statistics of China
6. Proportion of traditional energy consumption in total energy Appendix B, Sections B29
consumption
7. Proportion of output value of high-energy consuming industries in Appendix B, Sections B30
Gross industrial output value

Table A.3
Evaluation index system and weight of Coupling Coordination Degree.

System layers Functional Weight Specific index layer Weight Attributes

index layer

Social Population 1/3 1. Population All is +

development 2. Population density 1/9
3. Natural growth rate
Urbanization 1/3 4. Urbanization rate 1/3 +
Living quality 1/3 5. Per capita disposable income of urban residents All is +
6. Per capita disposable income of rural residents 1/6
Economic Gross 1 1. GDP All is +
development Domestic 2. GDP per capita 1/2
Product
Resource Cultivated land 1/4 1. Cultivated area 1/4 +
utilization Energy and 1/4 2. Reserves of petroleum, natural gas, coal, and ore of Iron, Chromite, Copper, Lead, Zinc, Bauxite, Nickel, Tungsten, All is +
mineral Tin, Molybdenum, Antimony, Gold, Silver, Magnesite, Fluorite, Pyrite, Phosphorus, Potash, Salt, Mirabilite, Barite, 1/108
Graphite, Talc, Kaolin
Forest 1/4 3. Forest area 1/4 +
Water 1/4 4. Total available water resources 1/4 +
Environment Coastal sea 1/3 1. The ratio of grade I and II in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea All is +
subsystem areas 1/12
Surface water 1/3 2. The ratio of equal or better than III in the Yellow River, the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River, the Haihe River, the All is +
Pearl River, the Songhua River- Liaohe River watershed, the Southeast river watershed, the Southwest river 1/27
watershed and the northwest river watershed
Atmosphere 1/3 3. The proportion of cities with acid rain incidence greater than 50%, the over standard rate of SO2, NO2 and All is −
particulate, the annual average haze incidence rate 1/15

Table A.4
The classification and distinguishing criterion of coordination type.

Coordination level Classifying criterion Types

I 0.00–0.39 Moderately maladjusted

II 0.40–0.49 Slightly maladjusted
III 0.50–0.59 Barely coordinated
IV 0.60–0.69 Moderately coordinated
V 0.70–0.79 Good coordinated
VI 0.80–1.00 Pre-eminently coordinated

18
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al. Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

Table A.5
The index selection of causality test.

Test object Indicator Code

Total Energy Consumption Total Energy Consumption a

Civil Vehicle b1
GDP of secondary industry b2
The urban population b3
Railway mileage b4
Highway mileage b5
Energy consumption per unit of GDP Energy consumption per unit of GDP a
Comprehensive energy efficiency index b1
The proportion of energy consumption in the energy-intensive industries in the total energy consumption b2
Steel production Steel production a
Urbanization rate b1
Car production b2
Total area under construction and completed b3
Railway mileage b4
Highway mileage b5
Total weight of household appliances output b6
Copper production Copper production a
Urbanization rate b1
Car production b2
Total area under construction and completed b3
Water consumption per unit of GDP Water consumption per unit of GDP a
Per Capita Water Consumption for rural Residential Use b1
Per Capita Water Consumption for urban Residential Use b2
Reuse rate of industrial water b3
Water saving irrigation rate b4
The frequency of acid rain Proportion of Cities with Acid Rain Frequency > 50% (60% Before 2005) In China a
Proportion of traditional energy consumption in total energy consumption b1
Proportion of output value of high-energy consuming industries in Gross industrial output value b2
Treatment investment of industrial waste gas pollution source b3
COD discharge COD discharge a
Proportion of output value of highly polluting industries in total output value b1
Wastewater treatment rate b2
Investment in industrial wastewater treatment b4
Ammonia nitrogen discharge Ammonia nitrogen discharge a
Proportion of output value of highly polluting industries in total output value b1
Wastewater treatment rate b2
Investment in industrial wastewater treatment b4
Grain output per unit area Grain output per unit area a
Area of protected farmland by embankment and dyke b1
Power-tilled area b3
Consumption of fertilizers b4
Effective irrigation area b5
Social, economic, resource and environmental causality tests Comprehensive social development level U1
Comprehensive economic development level U2
Comprehensive resource utilization level U3
Comprehensive environmental change level U4

Table A.6
The result of Coupling Coordination Degree Assessment.

Year Comprehensive social Comprehensive economic Comprehensive resource Comprehensive environmental Coupling coordination
development level development level utilization level change level degree

2000 0.11 0.00 0.45 0.43 0.00

2001 0.13 0.01 0.47 0.39 0.36
2002 0.16 0.03 0.57 0.47 0.43
2003 0.19 0.05 0.43 0.34 0.43
2004 0.23 0.08 0.33 0.32 0.45
2005 0.27 0.11 0.45 0.53 0.54
2006 0.30 0.16 0.39 0.52 0.56
2007 0.35 0.24 0.41 0.45 0.59
2008 0.40 0.34 0.47 0.62 0.67
2009 0.44 0.39 0.36 0.69 0.68
2010 0.50 0.49 0.54 0.56 0.72
2011 0.57 0.64 0.31 0.61 0.72
2012 0.63 0.74 0.49 0.75 0.80
2013 0.71 0.84 0.45 0.62 0.80
2014 0.78 0.93 0.45 0.64 0.82
2015 0.83 0.99 0.49 0.70 0.85
2016 0.93 1.00 0.63 0.80 0.91

19
X. Sun, B. Zhu, S. Zhang et al. Science of the Total Environment 804 (2022) 150180

Fig. A1. The analytical framework of econometric methods.

Fig. A2. The comprehensive level of the social development, the economic development, the resource reserve, and the environmental quality, as well as the coupling coordination degree of
these four subsystems.

Appendix B. Supplementary data

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150180.

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