Institutions and individuals in times of crisis: Using epistemic

network analysis in modeling public communication

Abstract: When we talk about data science, people mostly associate it with the abundance of data,
the myriad of evidence that should be used in testing hypotheses, constructing theories, and
predictive models. However, our research wants to underline one opposite aspect of data science,
and that is scarcity. One might rightly wonder what kind of scarcity we are talking about when we
have an endless horizon of usable data before us. Although this may be the case, there is a
significant lack of insight, meaning, and simply put – making the sense of big data. By this, we
want to elucidate problems that arise in the inability to meaningfully comprehend the abundance
of data in front of us. We are faced here with par excellence epistemic problem; however, unlike
classical epistemology, which dealt with the question of how the mind regulates the chaotic
confusion of sensory perceptions before it, here we wonder how society regulates an equally
chaotic mass of big data and can we benefit from making sense of it. Our research aims to expound
on one specific approach to data science, epistemic network analysis (ENA). ENA is a method for
identifying and quantifying connections among elements in coded data and representing them in
dynamic network models. A key feature of the ENA tool is that it enables researchers to compare
different networks, both visually and through summary statistics that reflect the weighted structure
of connections. The interface also allows users to see the original data that contributed to each of
the connections in the network representation. ENA can thus be used to address a wide range of
qualitative and quantitative research questions. Researchers have used ENA to analyze and
visualize a wide range of phenomena, including: cognitive connections that students make while
solving complex problems; interactions among different regions of the brain in fMRI data; social
gaze coordination; integration of operative skills during surgical procedures; and many others
(Shaffer, 2009; 2016; 2018). We want to display a similar application that emphasizes the
usefulness of data science in the broadest and most immediate utility for society. We wake up
every day and face a huge amount of stimuli coming from the world of digital media. The media
are the most important source of information in the context of a crisis, such as a coronavirus
pandemic. People want to inform their actions, consider the recommendations of experts and form
the most rational possible decisions according to the evidence they have in front of them. However,
this is not easy at all, since the abundance of data always implies contradictions, shortcomings of
criteria for hierarchizing the relevance of the confusion of information that we are showered with,
and issues related to directing our trust and forming our beliefs. Although big data is very useful
since it provides us with detailed and comprehensive information about almost everything, it is
necessary to instantiate a normative horizon and answer the question of what to do with all of this
data. For that reason, we want to demonstrate ENA as an auxiliary crutch for recognizing meaning
in the confusing abundance before us. To achieve this we will focus on the data of epistemic
experts; medical professionals such as immunologists, virologists, and epidemiologists, and, on
the other hand, political decision-makers. We can sample the data from numerous sources, but we
list news.google.com as a tool that can provide us with an overview of utterly all media reports on
the COVID19 crisis. After that, we will single out several countries, such as the USA, New
Zealand, and Serbia. By analyzing media statements by medical and political experts, we will
create individual models for each of these countries. The epistemic nodes of our models will be
social, economic, political, and medical issues. Based on the frequency of statements about each
of these nodes and through the thickness of the connections between the nodes, we will be able to
see how the substrate models differ. Based on the efficiency with which these countries managed
to cope with the pandemic, we will check to what extent the strategies of successful communication
between institutions and individuals have contributed to that. The expressive importance of such
modeled communication strategies is reflected in the increase of trust in epistemic experts and
adherence to adequate measures, vaccination, and speed of the collective health canvas. Through
corrections of communication between institutions and individuals, we can influence trust and
resolve the crisis circumstances in which society finds itself. This applies not only to cases of
medical crises such as pandemics but also to financial, social, and political crises. In that way, we
will show the exceptional importance of data science for society and individuals, with one small
concretized ENA nudge.

Keywords: Epistemic network analysis, COVID19, big data, communication models.