Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow

Shift towards More

Chemicals
Sophie Babusiaux &
Leandro Labanca
Agenda – Shift towards More Chemicals

1. Oil & Petrochemicals Market Dynamics & Challenges

2. From Plastic to Intermediates & Sources
1. Conventional Sources
2. Sustainable Sources
3. Crude to Chemical Project Cycle Life
4. Economic Insights for Crude to Chemicals

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow |2

Global Oil Demand 2019-2026

■ Oil demand highly impacted by Covid

crisis 120 Other

Mb/d
Products
► 2020: fall down by 8.7 %
100 Residual
► 2022: back to 2019 demand
Fuel
80 Diesel
■ Period 2019-2026
► from 2022 to 2026: oil demand 60 Jet / Kero
growth of 0.9% per year
40 Gasoline
► Overall period growth is impacted by
such crisis but the demand will be 20 Naphtha
steadily increasing LPG /
0 Ethane
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: IEA Oil 2021 report

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow |3

Global Product Growth 2019-2026

■ From 2019 to 2026:

 Gasoline demand is reduced 6
Other

Mb/d
 Diesel demand is increased 4 Products
 Ethane, LPG and Naphtha demand Residual
is increased 2 Fuel
Diesel
0

Gasoline Diesel Ethane, LPG -2 Jet / Kero

& Naphtha
-4 Gasoline
Avg growth, -0.3 +0.3 +2.1
%per year -6
Naphtha
-8
■ Petrochemical feeds growth is LPG /
-10 Ethane
the highest one: 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Source: IEA Oil 2021 report
 70% of Oil demand growth

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow |4

Market Highligts: Global Energy Demand 2040 Outlook
■ Oct 2020 IEA scenarii:
 Stated Policy Scenario STEPS
 Sustainable Development Scenario SDS

Scenario Diesel Gasoline Kerosene Naphtha LPG &

Ethane
STEPS ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲

SDS ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼

Oil demand peak in 2040 in STEPS

• Naphtha demand continues its regular long-

term increase towards chemicals production

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow |5

Long Term Demand / Oil for Petrochemicals, up to 2040
Mbpd Constant demand growth for the main petrochemical
17 intermediates (Ethylene, Propylene, Paraxylene, …) and
16 polymers (PE, PP, PET, …)
15
■ CAGR: ~4%/y (2000-2019) to 3%/y in 2020s & 2% in
14 2030s
13
■ IEA STEPS: to 2.2%/y in 2020s & 1.2% in 2030s
12
The key hypothesis is the plastics recycling ratio & single-use
11
plastic ban
10 ► from 20% in 2040 for “IEA STEPS”
► to 50% in 2050 for “IEA SDS”
9
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
■ Main source for Plastic Production remains naphtha, LPG
Historical Values IEA WEO 2020 STEPS
and Ethane in many scenario

IEA WEO 2020 SDS

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow |6

Agenda – Shift towards More Chemicals

1. Oil & Petrochemicals Market Dynamics & Challenges

2. From Plastic to Intermediates & Sources
1. Conventional Sources
2. Sustainable Sources
3. Crude to Chemical Project Cycle Life
4. Economic Insights for Crude to Chemicals

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow |7

Petrochemicals: Everywhere in Our Lives!

■ Instrumental for the

evolution of the Modern
World

■ Enable safer and better

quality of life

■ Offer solutions to our ever

evolving needs

Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group and Conversion Market & Strategy GmbH

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow

|8
Petrochemicals: Everywhere in Our Lives!
■ Wide spectrum of applications come from a number of intermediates and basic chemicals

Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group and Conversion Market & Strategy GmbH
Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow
|9
Petrochemicals: Everywhere in Our Lives!
Cumene
EB
(Ethylbenzene)
Butenes

Benzene

Propylene

Xylenes
PTA
(Polyethylene
terephthalate)

Ethylene
TDI
(Toluene MEG VCM
Toluene diisocyanate) (Mono Ethylene
(Vinyl chloride
Glycol)
monomer)
Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 10
 CTC: Unlock the Petrochemicals in the Site PE
polyethylene

PP
polypropylene
Ethylene
PUR
polyurethane

Propylene Nylon

Crude to Butadiene
SBR
styrene-butadiene rubber

PS

Chemicals
polystyrene
Crude
ABS
acrylonitrile butadiene styrene

(CTC) Benzene
PET
Polyethylene terephthalate

Toluene Plasticicers

PVC
Polyvinyl chloride

Xylenes Other Plastics

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 11

 CTC: Unlock the Petrochemicals in the Site PE
polyethylene

PP
Light Ends Ethane polypropylene
Ethylene
PUR
LPG polyurethane
Olefins
Light
Complex Propylene Nylon

Naphtha Preparation Complex

Naphtha Naphtha
SBR

Bottom Upgrading
Crude Distillation

styrene-butadiene rubber

Lights + LN
Butadiene PS

PyGas
polystyrene
Crude Diesel
ABS
acrylonitrile butadiene styrene
Benzene
PET
VGO Heavy Polyethylene terephthalate

Naphtha
Aromatics Complex Toluene Plasticicers

VR H2 PVC
Polyvinyl chloride

Xylenes Other Plastics

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 12

 CTC: Unlock the Petrochemicals in the Site PE
polyethylene

PP
Light Ends Ethane polypropylene
Ethylene
PUR
LPG polyurethane
Olefins
Light
Complex Propylene Nylon

Naphtha Preparation Complex

Naphtha Naphtha
SBR

Bottom Upgrading
Crude Distillation

styrene-butadiene rubber

Lights + LN
Butadiene PS

PyGas
polystyrene
Crude Diesel
ABS
acrylonitrile butadiene styrene
Benzene
PET
VGO Heavy Polyethylene terephthalate

Naphtha
Aromatics Complex Toluene Plasticicers

VR H2 PVC
Polyvinyl chloride

AXENS Other Plastics

Xylenes
Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 13
Some of Axens Technologies supporting CTC Complex
Olefins Complex
Naphtha Preparation Light Ends Ethane
C4 Hydro.
Super Frac.
BD Rich
LPG C4 Hydro. MaxB1
Olefins MTBE
BD Lean MaxB2

Light
Complex

Naphtha Preparation Complex

Pygas Hydro.
Naphtha Naphtha AlphaButol
1st Stage HD1

Bottom Upgrading
Crude Distillation
Pygas Hydro.
AlphaHexol™
2nd Stage HD2

Lights + LN
PyGas
C3 MAPD Aromatics LLE
Crude Diesel
Total
Hydrogenations

VGO Heavy
Naphtha
Aromatics Complex Aromatic Complex
H2 Ring
VR Arrangement
AXENS Suite

Isomerization
Aromizing™ Suite

Among many others… Eluxyl®

Extraction
Suite

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 14

 Maximizing the Value of Alternative Feeds
Atol™
ETHANOL
DEHYDRATION
Futurol™
ENZYMATIC
CONVERSION

BioButterfly™
2G Ethanol BioButadiene Production

Biomass
&
Biogenic
Wastes

Bio-TCat™
FLASH PYROLYSIS

BioTfueL™ Renewable fuels

GASIFICATION & FT
(Jet, Diesel)
Renewable Renewable Naphtha
Oils & Fats Vegan®
HYDROTREATMENT

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 15

Maximizing the Value of Alternative Feeds RewindTM Mix
PURIFICATION SOLUTION

Fuels

GaselTM
FISCHER TROPSCH

Fuels

Gasification

Thermal
Pyrolysis
Mixed
plastics
Low Quality

Mixed
plastics
High Quality

PET
(any waste PET)

Bringing back waste to make a Circular RewindTM PET

PET GLYCOLYSIS

Economy: Axens Recycling Solutions

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 16
Agenda – Shift towards More Chemicals

1. Oil & Petrochemicals Market Dynamics & Challenges

2. From Plastic to Intermediates & Sources
1. Conventional Sources
2. Sustainable Sources
3. Crude to Chemical Project Cycle Life
4. Economic Insights for Crude to Chemical

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 17

“Axens’ Offer accompanies the Entire Plant Life Cycle to
ensure its success…”
Grassroots &
Revamp Projects
Operators
Concept Technology/ supported by
Catalyst
Selection Axens at all stages
Technical
Services & Op.
Support Process Design/
From a single unit to a large
Licensing
integrated project
Commissioning/
Start-up From feasibility study to
Involvement in Entire Life Operation
FEED/EPC
Catalyst/
Equipment/ From operation improvement
Module Supply Training to upgrading

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 18

Agenda – Shift towards More Chemicals

1. Oil & Petrochemicals Market Dynamics & Challenges

2. From Plastic to Intermediates & Sources
1. Conventional Sources
2. Sustainable Sources
3. Crude to Chemical Project Cycle Life
4. Economic Insights for Crude to Chemicals

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 19

Economics Insight:
Comparing raw margin Refinery & Petrochemistry
Zero fuel refinery typical raw margin
12
$/b
Refinery 10
Crude Clean 10 yr avg.

Fuels 8

6
■ Annual raw margins of Zero Fuel refinery available
2006-2019 4 50/50 LLS/HLS-
coking (US)

2
■ Refinery Raw margin definition: Source :
IEA/KBC Monthly Global Indicator Refining Margin
Liquid Product value ($/b) -
- Liquid Feed value ($/b) 2 006 2 011 2 016

- Make-up Hydrogen (net $/feed b)

= Raw margins ($ / b) Average Raw Margin of 8 $ / barrel

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 20

Economics Insight: Raw margin in Petrochemistry 2006-19
Heavy Steam
Aromatic PX, Benzene
Naphtha Cracker
Complex Naphtha Olefins
Typical aromatics complex raw margin Typical naphtha cracker raw margin
60 50
$/b
45
$/b
■ Much higher raw
50
40 margin than
40
35 refinery for
10 yr avg.
30 Aromatic Complex
10 yr avg.
30 25 and Steam
20 Cracker
20
15
Aromatic Naphtha
complex (Asia) 10 cracker (Asia)
10
5
Source : IFPEN - Economic & Environmental Evaluation dept. Source : IFPEN - Economic & Environmental Evaluation dept.
- -
2 006 2 008 2 010 2 012 2 014 2 016 2 018 2 020 2 006 2 008 2 010 2 012 2 014 2 016 2 018 2 020

Average Raw Margin of 43 $ / bl Average Raw Margin of 25 $ / bl

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 21
 Ethylene

Economics Insight: Crude

Crude to
Chemicals
Propylene

Butadiene

Raw margins Oil to Chemical (CTC) Benzene

Toluene

Xylenes

Application Case: Oil to Chemical Complex

■ Raw Margins of the CTC include:

• Refinery
• Aromatics Complex
Oil to Chemical
• Steam Cracker Complex Oil Chemicals
Complex

■ Unlocked Bonus: Average Raw Margin of 47 $ / barrel

• Hydrogen route for conversion
• Internal recirculation within the
Complex

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 22

Take-Aways
■ Petrochemicals demand growth is higher than the one expected for fuels

■ The feed to Petrochemical complex is Ethane, LPG and Naphtha but

also biosource and Plastic recycle will be part of the future

■ Crude Oil-to-Chemical complexes offer many advantages:

 Expanding into higher margins
 Mitigating risks related to raw material and product price variations
 Bonus valorization thanks to recycle destination

■ As the owner of the largest portfolio technologies for CTC, Axens is a

Global Leader in providing advanced and innovative solutions for
integrated tailored made CTC Complex

Axens Webinar - Succeeding in the Chemical World of Tomorrow | 23

 Thank
www.axens.net you!
Do Not Hesitate to Get in Touch

Marie-Amélie Lambert Sophie Babusiaux

FCC, Sweetening and Scheme Development and
Resid Desulfurization Team Conversion Technologist
Manager Sophie.BABUSIAUX@axens.net
Marie- https://www.linkedin.com/in/soph
Amelie.LAMBERT@axens.net ie-babusiaux/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ma
rie-am%C3%A9lie-lambert-
78ab32/

Cécile Plain Rémi Monot Leandro Labanca

Technology Group Manager - Olefins Technology Team AromaticsTechnologist
Technology Sequencing Manager
Leandro.LABANCA@axens.net
Principal Expert
REMI.MONIOT@axens.net
https://www.linkedin.com/in/lea
Cecile.PLAIN@axens.net ndro-labanca-0a708a61/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cecile
-plain/