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The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs

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The Caribbean and Covid-19: not a health crisis,

but a looming economic one

Kirk Meighoo

To cite this article: Kirk Meighoo (2020): The Caribbean and Covid-19: not a health crisis, but a
looming economic one, The Round Table, DOI: 10.1080/00358533.2020.1769917

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/00358533.2020.1769917

Published online: 27 May 2020.

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THE ROUND TABLE
https://doi.org/10.1080/00358533.2020.1769917

OPINION

The Caribbean and Covid-19: not a health crisis, but

a looming economic one
Kirk Meighoo
Political Analyst, Multimedia Broadcaster, Trinidad & Tobago

The twelve tiny independent states of the Commonwealth Caribbean (Antigua and
Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts
and Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago) are among the
smallest in the world and extremely vulnerable to external shocks – economic and
environmental. The Covid-19 crisis is the latest, and potentially the most devastating of
these, perhaps in all of recorded history. However, it may not be so for the expected reasons.
According to the Human Development Index, nine of those countries rank in the ‘High’
category, two ‘Very High’ (Barbados and The Bahamas), and one ‘Medium’ (Guyana). This
generally good ranking masks some of the serious economic and social vulnerabilities of
the region, and its generally shallow economies. Caribbean economies have always been
outward-focused, dependent on external markets and foreign investment. In recent dec-
ades they have been dominated by tourism, offshore banking, oil and gas, and remittances
from emigrants abroad.
The region was hard hit by the 2008 Great Recession and had not yet fully recovered.
Some islands also had received heavy blows from recent hurricanes Darian (2019) and Maria
(2017).
When the unexpected novel coronavirus emerged, responses were mixed. Being
separate, independent countries, policies differed slightly, but all generally followed the
international lockdown protocols. Reaction times varied, however. In January, for exam-
ple, in Trinidad and Tobago, although Covid-19 was officially declared a threat, the
Opposition’s calls for debate and action on the matter were shut down in Parliament on
five occasions, and the country’s international Carnival celebrations were held as usual.
Eventually, every island did impose a level of lockdown, some more drastic than
others. St. Vincent and the Grenadines, for instance, had only one movement restriction
(border closure and control), while Trinidad and Tobago eventually implemented one of
the highest number of movement restrictions (eleven, both internal and external con-
trols), with Jamaica topping the region (thirteen).
This did result in some intra-island government tension when Trinidad and Tobago
refused to accept its returning citizens, and Barbados (with two restrictions) offered them
refuge for a little over one month, amidst much uncertainty.
It was feared that the pandemic would spread in these tiny islands and hospitals would
be overwhelmed. Five months into the pandemic and the statistics show that this did not
occur anywhere (see Table 1). Five islands (Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis,

CONTACT kmeighoo@gmail.com
© 2020 The Round Table Ltd
2 K. MEIGHOO

Table 1. Independent commonwealth countries.

Coronavirus Deaths Population Size HDI ranking (2019) GDP growth 2020 (projected)
Antigua and Barbuda 3 96,286 74 High −7.2%
Bahamas 11 377,000 60 Very High −6.8%
Barbados 7 286,000 56 Very High −5.8%
Belize 2 383,071 103 High −3.9%
Dominica 0 71,625 98 High −3.6%
Grenada 0 111,454 78 High −7.3%
Guyana 10 779,004 124 Medium 56.4%
Jamaica 9 2,934,855 96 High −5.3%
Saint Kitts and Nevis 0 52,441 73 High −6.5%
Saint Lucia 0 181,889 89 High −8.1%
St. Vincent Grenadines 0 110,210 94 High −3.6%
Trinidad and Tobago 8 1,389,858 63 High −5.0%
TOTAL 50 6,773,693
Sources: Worldometers.info, UNDP, ECLAC

St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines) have had zero coronavirus deaths.
(Populations ranged from 52,441 to 181,889.) The highest number of such deaths
(eleven) was found in the Bahamas.
In total, out of a population of 6.8 million people, there have been 50 coronavirus-
related deaths. It would be fair to say, then, that this has not been a major health crisis for
the region. Annual hurricanes and other diseases have taken a much greater toll on
human life.
Where the effect of the coronavirus crisis will be most felt is in terms of economic
impact. Locking down the economy for two months or more, along with social distancing
measures, may result in many businesses, even industries, closing permanently. Job losses
will be high. Since much of the regional economy is informal – in terms of individual
livelihoods – the official statistics may not capture the full effect of the devastation.
The region’s economies were already the most highly indebted in the world (averaging
68.5% of GDP in 2019), and most do not have access to concessionary financing because
of their income levels. Spending between 1% and 4% of GDP to deal with the crisis, they
may be more indebted afterwards. It is projected that 2020 will see the largest economic
contraction since 1930 for the region (with the exception of Guyana, because of recent
discoveries of large oil and gas reserves there).
Projected declines in the international tourist industry, the global oil industry, and the
disruption of global supply chains on these highly import- and export-dependent socie-
ties are sure to have significant effects.
The question of re-building – in some sectors, building for the first time – local
economies, and how to fit them into the new emerging international economy becomes
an issue that needs to be on the front burner in each country, and the region as a whole.

ORCID
Kirk Meighoo http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3489-9723