PROFESSIONAL FORUM: PROJECTIVE PREDICATION OF RETENTION 229

PROFESSIONAL FORUM:
Prediction of Job Retention Using a
Brief Projective Test Battery:
a Preliminary Report
Alan J. Raphael and Charles J. Golden*

The use of objectively validated projective tests in personnel decisions has been limited in
recent years because of the perception that such tests are highly subjective, difficult to
administer, and difficult to score in a reliable manner. The present paper demonstrates the use
of a brief (‰ hour) projective test battery consisting of the Bender±Gestalt, House±Tree±
Person, and a free drawing test which can be administered in a personnel office and scored
blindly using an objective scoring system. The study showed that such a battery could predict
six month retention rates in a sample of recently hired corrections officers at statistically
significant rates (2 = 6.25, p < 0.05) despite the fact that the individuals had already been
thoroughly prescreened using the company's comprehensive normal procedures. The possible
uses and advantages of a language-free projective battery are discussed along with future
research directions.

Prediction of job retention using a brief believe as well that self-report tests appear
projective test battery 'unfair' to minority candidates. The potential
issue of response bias, where a client gives

W hile those who use personality tests have

long felt that there is a major role for
such tests in personnel selection, many outside
the field continue to question their validity,
reliability, and fairness to minority applicants
(Hogan et al. 1996). Schneider (1987) believes
that personality tests are underused in personnel
selection because of early work that suggested
personality variables were unimportant; a focus
on psychopathology rather than job specific
variables like reliability or dependability; a
dependence on psychological measures unsuited
for personnel selection; a failure to recognize
that traits important for one job may be
unimportant for another job; and the impact of
privacy issues with regard to non job specific
personality variables.
While the Hogan et al. (1996) review
concludes that well constructed measures using
self report designs are fair, such research has not
adequately dealt with the impact of clients
whose main language or culture may be
inconsistent with the language in which the test
was developed. In some cases, such individuals
may not have adequate reading levels or more
importantly, reading and language compre-
hension levels to understand self report tests.
Although Hogan et al. disagree, many in the field
socially acceptable rather than true answers, in
such tests is also a concern to users despite
construction methods which attempt to minimize
such issues (Hogan et al. 1996)
An alternative to self-report or other language
based measures have always been the non-verbal
projective personality tests (Golden, 1991). For
the past 15 years, however, such open ended or
projective measures have generally been con-
sidered too complex for employment assess-
ment. Such tests generally were regarded as
requiring highly qualified individual administra-
tion, adding substantially to evaluation costs.
The absence of reliable scoring methods,
difficulty in administration, a perception that
such tests are not and cannot be objective, and
lack of awareness in industrial and organizational
settings have all impaired acceptance of these
techniques as a substitute for multiple choice or
true±false tests.
While some projective techniques do indeed
require extensive face to face administrative
methods, this is not true of projective tests like
the Bender±Gestalt and House±Tree±Person.
Such tests can be administered quickly and
easily with a minimum of training. They also *Address for correspondence:
Dr Charles Golden, 2862 NE
have the advantage of requiring few specific 35th Court, Lighthouse Point,
language skills (instructions can be easily FL 33064, USA.

ß Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1997, 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK and
350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA. Volume 5 Number 4 October 1997
230 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SELECTION AND ASSESSMENT
translated into any language) and appear to
demand less specific cultural experiences,
offering tasks which are familiar to most if not
all ethnic, cultural, and educational groups (Hutt
1985; Reichenberg and Raphael 1992).
The obvious and significant disadvantage
with these tests is the issue of scoring which
has typically been subjective despite the
availability of commonly used objective scoring
systems (Hutt 1985; Naglieri 1980; Reichenberg
and Raphael 1992). The wide acceptance of
these systems in clinical practice by psycho-
logists is well recognized (Piotrowski and Keller
1985).
However, the predictive validity of such
systems in a job applicant pool remains unclear
and relatively unresearched. Beutler et al. (1975)
found that the Bender±Gestalt was a significant
predictor of police performance using only the
time to complete the test in stressed and
unstressed conditions as their measures. Hutt
and Briskin (1960) found that the Bender±Gestalt
(using the Hutt system) was a significant
predictor of military personnel performance
under battle conditions.
Thus the use of such projective tests for
employment screening appears reasonable and
practical. They offer the advantages of ease of
administration, shortness of administration time,
less language dependence, and fewer culture
specific demands than many other tests. They
offer the chief disadvantage of the lack of a
coherent research program to show their
effectiveness.
The present study is an initial attempt to
analyse the effectiveness of a battery of non-
verbal projective tests administered by a
personnel department and scored objectively
by a `blind' expert. For this initial study, it was
decided to attempt to predict a relatively
objective employment standard: likelihood of
employee retention in a stressful employment
situation where high turnover rates are common.
This variable has the advantage of being
completely objective as well as important, since
employee turnover is a significant source of
expense for many companies as well as leading
to a workforce which is less experienced and
likely less effective.
This variable also has obvious defects which
may compromise the magnitude of any findings.
While it is reasonable to believe that retention is
related to the interaction of job demands and
personality traits, it is also affected by many
extraneous variables such as salary, availability
of other jobs, personal and family issues, and
general health. However, it is believed that this
variable is a reasonable test of the potential
efficacy of this assessment procedure.
Volume 5 Number 4 October 1997
Method
The subjects were 60 new hires with a large
multinational corrections company, The candi-
dates were rigorously evaluated first by the
company for appropriateness for the job of
Corrections Officer. They were then hired for
these positions. After hiring, all subjects were
administered the projective test battery by on-
site personnel following simple standardized
instructions which came with the tests.
The battery included the Bender±Gestalt Test,
the House±Tree±Person, and an experimental
free drawing test. A sole administrator
conducted the entire screening (usually in a
group format) in approximately one hour. The
test instructions were simple. The candidate was
asked to copy the Bender figures, and then asked
to draw a house, a tree, a person, and a drawing
of their own choice.
At the completion of the test, all the protocols
were sent, without any job performance
information, to be scored by the senior author.
Each protocol was scored blindly. The presence
of specific characteristics of the drawings on the
tests were noted, using a simple scoring system
of present or absent. These specific criteria
(currently nearly 200 in all) included such
characteristics as size of drawings, location of
the drawings on the page, the relationship of
figures within the drawings, the darkness of
lines, the presence or absence of specific features
on the house, tree and person, and other similar
criteria (see Raphael and Reichenberg 1992 for a
detailed discussion of the system related to the
Bender). There are criteria which apply across
the figures and drawings, while others which are
specific to only a particular figure or drawing.
Each of these criteria are included on one or
more scales which cover a wide range of
psychological characteristics ranging from severe
pathology and brain injury (rarely seen in a
normal population) to those characteristics
included in this study which were hypothesized
prior to the study to be related to vocational
retention. These categories included: (1)
attention to detail; (2) effective communication
skills; (3) ability to work well with others; (4)
logic, reasoning, problem solving, and judge-
ment; (5) organizational productivity; (6) ability
to accept direction; (7) ability to control stress
and contain emotional reactions; (8) ability to
postpone gratification; (9) level of patience and
impulse control; and (10) level of self-confidence.
Based on the performance on the criteria
related to a specific area, each candidate was
assigned a point value, based on whether the
performance was rated (1) low, (2) moderate or
(3) high on each variable on the basis of the
projective test performance overall. These
judgments were made on the basis of data
ß Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1997
PROFESSIONAL FORUM: PROJECTIVE PREDICATION OF RETENTION
gathered over 20 years of use with this system.
The 10 rating scores were totalled to get an
overall summary evaluation with these summary
scores ranging from a minimum of 10 to a
possible maximum of 30. Total scores of 10±16
or less were classified as minimally qualified;
scores of 17±23 were classified as moderately
qualified; and scores of 24±30 were classified as
highly qualified.
No feedback was given to the subjects on their
scores or performance, nor were supervisors or
other individuals involved in their retention
aware of the scores. At the end of six months,
the authors were sent a list of which employees
were still employed and which were not.
Results
A chi-square analysis was conducted using a 2
(employment status) by 3 (minimal, moderate, or
high status) design (df = 2). A chi-square of 6.25
was found, p < 0.05. Tau (0.31) was also
calculated and found to be significant at the 0.05
level.
Discussion
Overall, the results of this double-blind study
confirmed the usefulness of the projective test
battery in predicting retention in this sample,
These results are impressive in that accuracy was
likely reduced by many unrelated and uncon-
trollable factors, as well as the use of a restricted
sample caused by the prescreening of the
employer which likely caused very poor
candidates to be underrepresented in the sample
(e.g. no candidate scored in the 10±13 range, the
lowest scores possible.) It is likely that earlier use
of these measures in the process would result in
even more useful information. Even when
administered at the end of the process, the
battery can alert the employer to employees
who have a lower potential for retention which
could be used for final selection, saving
potentially thousands of dollars in retraining
costs, or used to develop new programs aimed at
at-risk individuals to increase the chances of
retention.
The present results do not address the
question of the projective variables to predict
aspects of the quality of job performance,
tapping into such basic variables as motivation,
dependability, obsessional traits, anxiety, and
maturity. While the role of these variables may
differ across jobs, being positive in one and
negative in another, the awareness of the
applicant's strengths and weaknesses will help
the employer in distinguishing from, otherwise
similar applicants.
ß Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1997
231
The ease of administration, low cost, racial
and cultural fairness, gender fairness, educational
fairness and difficulty in faking good all suggest
that these techniques can be a valuable aid in
personnel selection processes. One possible
drawback of these features is also related to
one of these strengths. This tests are difficult to
fake because of their lack of clear face validity: it
is not immediately obvious to the test taker how
the performance on the test relates to job factors.
As a result, the client cannot intentionally distort
answers in order to `look good', but generally
must simply do their best without awareness of
what that means.
This lack of face validity however may lead
some clients to be concerned about the
meaningfulness or accuracy of the procedures.
Clients may be concerned or even upset with
tests when they do not believe that they
understand how they work. While this could
theoretically lead to a refusal to do the tests,
there were no difficulties with our current sample
in this regard. Any concern on a client's part is
generally mitigated by the simplicity of the tasks
which most clients feel they are competent to
perform. Thus, while this issue is generally not a
problem, it is one that must be kept in mind for
those cases where this issue becomes important.
Of greater importance related to the issue of
face validity is convincing a business firm or
manager of the validity of the tests. Managers
are often more comfortable with face valid tests
when making personnel decisions, The use of
projective tests like these must be accepted not
on the basis of face validity but must be based
on research and clinical experience which shows
the value of the techniques in specific settings.
While this should be true of all types of
instruments, it is unfortunate that sometimes
face validity (which is not really a form of
validity) takes precedence over actual research
findings.
The use of projective tests offer many
potential advantages, but also emphasizes the
need for clear outcome research rather than
decisions based on face validity. The present
results are encouraging and illustrate both the
potential value of this approach and the role that
empirical research can play in establishing the
value of these tests and procedures. Much more
research is necessary before final conclusions can
be reached on the full value of these tests in
personnel selection. The positive results of this
study will hopefully provide a stimulus for such
future research.
References
Beutler, I. Storm, A., Kirkin, P., Scosin, F. and Gaines,
P. (1975) Parameters in the prediction of police
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232 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SELECTION AND ASSESSMENT
officer performance. Professional Psychology, 16,
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Golden, C. (1991) Clinical interpretation of objective
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Hogan, R., Hogan, J. and Roberts, B.W. (1996)
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Hutt, M. (1985) The Hutt adaptation of the Bender±
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Hutt, M. and Briskin, G.J. (1960) The clinical use of the
Bender±Gestalt Test. New York: Grune and
Volume 5 Number 4 October 1997
Stratton.
Naglieri, J.A. (1980) Draw a person: A quantitative
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Personnel Psychology, 40, 437±453.
ß Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1997