Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Mike Cliff
Current Draft: June 30, 1998
Contents
1 Introduction 1
2 Asset Pricing 3
2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.2 Portfolio Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2.1 Single Period Optimization Problem . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2.2 Key Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2.3 Multiperiod Portfolio Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.3 Equilibrium Asset Pricing Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.3.1 Utility Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.3.2 CAPM Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.3.3 ICAPM Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.3.4 CCAPM Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.3.5 The CIR Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.4 Arbitrage Asset Pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.4.1 State Contingent Claims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.4.2 Arbitrage Pricing Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.5 Pricing Kernel Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.5.1 Basics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.5.2 Different Expectations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.5.3 Asset Pricing with m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.5.4 The Agent’s Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.5.5 The Main Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.5.6 Hansen-Jagannathan Bounds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.6 Conditioning Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.7 Market Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.8 Empirical Asset Pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.8.1 Properties of Asset Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
i
ii CONTENTS
3 Fixed Income 45
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.2 Term Structure Basics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.3 Inflation and Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.4 Forward Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.5 Bond Pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.6 Affine Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.6.1 Vasicek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.6.2 The CIR Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.6.3 Duffie-Kan Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
3.6.4 Other Single Factor Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.6.5 Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.7 Multi-Factor Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.8 Empirical Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.8.1 Brown & Dybvig (1986) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.8.2 Brown & Schaefer (1994) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3.8.3 Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff & Sanders (1992) . . . . . . . 53
3.8.4 Gibbons & Ramaswamy (1993) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
3.8.5 Pearson & Sun (1994) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
3.8.6 Longstaff & Schwartz (1992) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
4 Derivatives 55
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
4.2 Binomial Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
4.2.1 Alternative Derivations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
4.2.2 Trinomial Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
4.3 Black Scholes Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
4.3.1 Black Scholes Derivations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
4.3.2 Implied Volatilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
4.3.3 Hedging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
4.4 Advanced Topics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
4.4.1 American Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
CONTENTS iii
5 Corporate Finance 71
5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
5.2 Information Asymmetry/Signaling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
5.3 Agency Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
5.4 Capital Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
5.5 Dividends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
5.5.1 Factors Influencing Dividend Policy . . . . . . . . . . . 88
5.5.2 Key Dividends Papers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
5.6 Corporate Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
5.7 Mergers and Acquisitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
5.7.1 Tender Offers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
5.7.2 Competition Among Bidders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
5.7.3 Managerial Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
5.7.4 Key Papers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
5.8 Financial Distress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
5.8.1 Factors Affecting Reorganizations . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
5.8.2 Private Resolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
5.8.3 Formal Resolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
5.8.4 Key Papers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
5.9 Equity Issuance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
5.9.1 Flotation Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
5.9.2 Direct Flotation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5.9.3 Indirect Flotation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
5.9.4 Valuation Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
5.9.5 SEO Timing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
5.9.6 Key Papers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
5.10 Initial Public Offerings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
5.10.1 IPO Anomalies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
5.10.2 Key Papers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
5.11 Executive Compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
5.12 Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
5.13 Internal/External Markets and Banking . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
iv CONTENTS
References 192
vi CONTENTS
Chapter 1
Introduction
1
2 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
Asset Pricing
2.1 Introduction
There are three primary apporaches to pricing assets. The equilibrium ap-
proach begins with agents preferences (e.g., over expected returns or con-
sumption). Agents maximize expected utility subject to budget constraints
and market clearing conditions. Equilibrium models price all assets simul-
taneously and in equilibrium there is no arbitrage. The arbitrage approach
takes a different point of view. It takes as given the prices of basis assets,
which can be combined to generate other payoffs. The absence of arbitrage
implies unique prices for these synthetic assets when markets are (locally)
complete. If markets are incomplete, it may be the case that there is a range
of admissable prices. Unfortunately, it is generally not possible to recover
a supporting equilibrium from the arbitrage approach. Somewhat paradox-
ically, the arbitrage approach may in fact admit arbitrage opportunities in
the sense that selecting different basis assets may give different prices. The
final approach focuses on the pricing kernel. This approach shares many of
the features of the first two approaches and provides a unifying framework.
Under this paradigm, all assets can be priced by the relation p = E[mx].
Asset pricing models differ in the specification of the pricing kernel m.
One question that arises immediately in asset pricing is the decision to
work in discrete or continous time. The discrete time models were developed
first, and the have the benefit of a more intuitive feel. Continuous time
models have a number of advantages. With a single state variable returns
are perfectly instantaneously correlated which simplifies the analysis. More
3
4 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
Σw = λµ + γι µp = w 0 µ 1 = w0 ι.
2.2. PORTFOLIO THEORY 5
wp = g + hµp (2.3)
that ι0 g = 1, ι0 h = 0, µ0 g = 0, µ0 h = 1
T
X
max Et [U (Ct )] + Et [B(WT )]
{C,w}
t=1
This generalizes to
with FOCs
γ
1−γ αW
u(W ) = +b
γ 1−γ
Case u= γ b Features
Risk-neutral 1
Quadratic 2 IARA, M-V
Negative Exp. −e−αW −∞ 1 CARA= α
Power W γ /γ <1 0 CRRA= 1 − γ
Log log(W ) 0 0 CRRA=1
The HARA (hyperbolic absolute risk aversion) family nests many com-
monly used classes of utility functions. Table 2.1 summarzies the features of
common utility functions.
With a riskless asset, quadratic or HARA utility implies two-fund separa-
tion. If there is not a riskless asset, quadratic or CRRA utility provides this
result. With the exception of quadratic (which has its own undesirable prop-
erties), restrictions on utility functions alone do not imply mean-variance
preferences, so therefore do not imply the CAPM.
Equilibrium models rely on the ability to aggregate over individuals in
the economy. A complete or effectively complete market guarantees the ex-
istance of a representative agent. The representative agent’s utility function
is completely determined by individual agents’ preferences and wealths and
is independent of available assets only when all investors have HARA utility.
The risk aversion of the representative agent is the harmonic mean of indi-
vidual risk aversions, and will be less than or equal to the wealth-weighted
average. It is easier to establish the existence of a representative agent than
it is to aggregate demands. In many cases, however, we are interested in the
less difficult task of aggregating demand only at the equilibrium price.
1
L = w0 Σw + λ[µp − µf − w0 (µ − µf ι)]
2
FOCs:
Σw = λ(µ − µf ι)
µp − µf = w0 (µ − µf ι)
Solving for λ,
λ = w0 Σw[w0 (µ − µf ι)]−1
so
Σw
µ − µf ι = Σw/λ = (µp − µf ) = β(µp − µf )
w0 Σw
Investors will only hold a combination of the riskfree asset and a tangency
portfolio. With homogeneous expectations the portfolio p must be the value-
weighted market portfolio M .
µ − µf ι = β(µM − µf )
µi = µz + βi (µM − µz ).
2.3. EQUILIBRIUM ASSET PRICING THEORY 11
L = w0 µ + µz (1 − ι0 w) + λ(σ 2 − w0 Σw)
gives FOCs:
σ 2 = wΣw 1 = 10 w µ = µz ι + 2λΣw.
So
w0 µ = µz + 2λσ 2
2
For the market portfolio 2λ = (µM − µz )/σM . For a generic asset,
2
µi = µz + (µM − µz )σiM /σM = µz + βi (µM − µz ).
Interpretation
The assets that covary negatively with the market tend to payoff when the
market is doing poorly. These assets are valueable to investors in smoothing
their wealth. Since they are valuable, investors will pay a high price and
accept a low return. Thus, assets with low or negative betas will have low
(or possibly negative) expected returns. Higher risk aversion increases the
E[r ]−r
risk-return tradeoff. This is measured by the Sharpe-ratio Mσi f , the slope
of the CML.
Merton’s (1973) ICAPM begins with the specification of asset price paths.
Demands are determined by investors’ maximizing current and expected fu-
ture utility, subject to his budget constraint. Preferences are instantaneously
state-independent and depend only on immediate consumption. The in-
direct utility function, which is the maximized utility of future wealth, is
state-dependent. A collection of state variables are sufficient statistics for
summarizing the investment opportunities. Investors hedge against adverse
changes in the investment opportunity set, with the end goal being a hedge
against changes in consumption.
Assumptions
• limited liability
• perfect markets
• no restrictions on trading volume/short selling
• always in equilibrium
• borrow/lend at same rate
• continuous-time trading
• state variable has continuous sample path
• first 2 return moments exist, higher moments unimportant
• returns have a compact distribution
• time-separable preferences
• r̃i = αi dt + σi dzi
The following derivation is for a single state variable x. The more gereral
case of a vector of state variables is similar.
Underlying Processes
√
dW = −Cdt + [W − Cdt]w0 r dx = µdt + sε̃x dt
Et [dW ] = [W w0 α − C]dt E(dx) = µdt
var(dW ) = W 2 w0 Σwdt var(dx) = s2 dt
Optimization Problem
Z t+dt
J(W, x, t) = max Et U (C, s)ds + J(W + dw, x + dx, t + dt)
t
W2
0 = max [U (C, t) + Jt + JW (−C + W w0 α) + JW W w0 Σw
{C,w} 2
1
+ Jx µ + Jxx s2 + JW x W w0 σ ix ]dt (2.7)
2
FOCs: (with portfolio constraint N
P PN
i=0 wi αi = rf + i=1 wi (αi − rf ))
UC = J W (envelope condition)
W JW (α − rf ι) + W 2 JW W Σw + W JW x σ ix = 0
Σ−1 (α − rf ι) Σ−1 σ ix
t = 0 −1 h = 0 −1
ι Σ (α − rf ι) ι Σ σ ix
Therefore w∗ = Dt + Hh. Further, ι0 t = ι0 h = 1 so t and h are portfolios.
This gives three-fund separation, with the third fund being the riskless asset.
h is the “hedge portfolio,” and has the highest correlation with the state
variable x. This set up generalizes with a vector of state variables, in which
case we have dim(x) + 2-fund separation.
Equilibrium conditions:
Define ak = −JW /JW W and bk = −JW x /JW W where k indexes the investor.
Rewrite the second FOC as:
JW (α − rf ι) + JW W W Σw∗ + JW x σ ix = 0
ak (α − rf ι) = Wk Σwk − bk σ ix
P
Sum over all investors and divide by k ak :
(α − rf ι) = AΣµ − Bσ ix or (αi − rf ) = Aσim − Bσix
P P P P P P
where A = k Wk / k ak , B = k bk / k ak , and µ = k wk Wk / k Wk
(average investment in each asset across investors). Now multiply by µ0 and
h0 to get
2 2
αm − r = Aσm − Bσmx , αh − r = Aσhm − Bσhx ,
Solving for A and B and substituting,
2
σim σhx − σix σmh σix σm − σim σmx
αi − r = 2 (αm − r) + 2 (αh − r)
σm σhx − σmx σmh σm σhx − σmx σmh
CCAPM Derivation
The combination of portfolios h and t which the investor chooses minimize
the variance in consumption, not wealth.
The CCAPM can be derived as a simple modification to the previous
∗
derivation of the ICAPM. Since UC = JW at the optimum, JW W = UCC CW
and JW x = UCC Cx∗ . Substituting into (2.8),
−UCC Cx∗
−UC −1
∗
w = ∗
Σ (α − rf ι) + ∗
Σ−1 σ ix
W UCC CW W UCC CW
or
−UC ∗
(α − rf ι) = W CW Σw∗ + Cx∗ σ ix .
UCC
16 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
Noting that this is different for each agent k and letting T k = −CUC /UCC
T k (αi − rf ) = σiC
k
.
(αi − rf ) = T −1 σiC .
Note that if the consumption portfolio is not itself a traded asset than the
portfolio with the maximum correlation with consumption can be used. The
same basic intuition applies, but this results in the same kind of instrumental
variable flavor as in the previous presentation of the ICAPM. If consuption
is available, it serves as the single variable driving the returns process. When
it is not available we include additional state variables to use as instruments.
Assumptions
• single physical good
• n production activities follow (2.9)
• k state variables follow (2.10)
• contingent claims for the single good, whose value follows (2.11)
• competitive markets
• endogenously determined instantaneous borrowing/lending R t0 rate r
• fixed number of identical individuals who maximize E t U [C(s), Y (s), s]ds
• continous investing and trading with no transactions costs
• there exists a unique J and v̂
• (technical) v ∈ V is the class of admissible controls
• (technical) J, a∗ and C ∗ are sufficiently differentiable.
Underlying Processes
n Production Activities
k State Variables
Derivation
Budget constraint
" n k
#
X X
dW = ai W (αi − r) + bi W (βi − r) + rW − C dt
i=1 i=1
n n+k
! k k
!
X X X X
+ ai W gij dwj + bi W hij dwj (2.12)
i=1 j=1 i=1 j=1
or
n+k
X
dW = W µ(W )dt + W qj dwj
j=1
18 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
hR i
t0
Let K(v(t), W (t), Y (t), t) ≡ E t
U (v(s), Y (s), s)ds and define Lv (t)
W,Y,t
as the differential operator
k n+k
v
X 1 X
L (t)K = µ(W )W KW + µ i KY i + W 2 KW W qi2
i=1
2 i=1
k n+k k k n+k
X X 1 XX X
+ W KW Yi qj sij + KY i Y j sim sjm (2.13)
i=1 j=1
2 i=1 j=1 m=1
J has many of the same properties as U , such as being increasing and strictly
concave in W .
Defining Ψ = Lv J + U , we get the following necessary and sufficient
conditions:
• Ψ C = U C − JW ≤ 0
• CΨC = 0
• Ψa = [α − r]W JW + [GG0 a + GH 0 b]W 2 JW W + GS 0 W JW Y ≤ 0
• a 0 Ψa = 0
• Ψb = [β − r]W JW + [HG0 a + HH 0 b]W 2 JW W + HS 0 W JW Y = 0
Characterizations
The expected rate of return on wealth is a∗0 α. r is the negative of the expected
rate of change in the MU wealth, or a∗0 α + the covariance between the rate
of return on wealth and the rate of change in the MU of wealth.
JW W dW dW JW W
r = −E =E + cov ,−
JW W W JW
where
" k #
JW W X JW Y i
φW = − var(W ) + − cov(W, Yi ) = (a∗0 α − r)W
JW i=1
J W
and
" k #
JW W X JW Y i
φYi = − cov(W, Yi ) + − cov(Yi , Yj )
JW j=1
JW
βi = r − cov(F i , JW )/F i JW
The expected return on a contingent claim is the riskfree rate plus a linear
combination of the first partials of the asset price with respect to W and Y .
The weights are the φ coefficients, which are much like factor risk premiums
in the APT or hegde portfolios in the ICAPM. The φs do not depend on the
contingent claim itself and are the same for all claims.
If U is not state-dependent, we get a CCAPM-type result, with φW =
00 00 00
− uu0 cov(C ∗ , W ) and φY = − uu0 cov(C ∗ , Y ), giving (βi −r)F i = − uu0 cov(C ∗ , F i ).
The expected excess return on an asset is proportional to its covariance with
optimal consumption. We can then express relative rates of return in a way
that does not depend (explicitly) on preferences.
1 X 1 XX
var(W )FW W + cov(W, Yi )FW Yi + cov(Yi , Yj )FYi Yj
2 " 2 #
X −JW Y
X −JW W i
+ F Yi µi − cov(W, Yi ) − cov(Yi , Yj )
i
JW j
JW
+ [rW − C ∗ ]FW + Ft − rF + δ(W, Y, t) = 0 (2.14)
where r and C ∗ are functions of W, Y, and t. This PDE holds for any contin-
gent claim, with boundary conditions and δ depending on the terms of the
claim. The PDE can price assets with payoffs (i) contingent on crossing a
barrier, (ii) contingent on not crossing a barrier, and/or (iii) flow payoffs.
20 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
ries. In general, tests reject the model but find it provides more favorable
performance than models like the CAPM.
APT Derivation
This derivation is based on the strict factor version. The exact APT deriva-
tion will also work under this approach. Modifications for the approximate
APT are mentioned at the end. It is very important to understand that the
APT starts with a characterization of realized returns r, and uses statistical
properties to say something about expected returns µ.
rt = µt + ν t = µt + Bft + ut (2.15)
µ = λ0 ι + Bλ + w. (2.16)
rp = w0 (λ0 ι + Bλ + w) + w0 Bf + w0 u.
2.5. PRICING KERNEL APPROACH 23
µt ≈ λ0 ι + Bλ. (2.17)
If a factor is negatively correlated with the IMRS the model implies a positive
risk premium.
Using wN in (2.16), where N indexes the number of assets, a sequence of
arbitrage portfolios satisfies the Ross pricing bound if w N 0 wN does not go to
infinity with N . The approximate factor model is derived by requiring that
as N → ∞ the smallest eigenvalue of B0 B → ∞ while the largest eigenvalue
of Ω → 0. That is, the factors are pervasive while the idiosyncratic part is
diversifiable.
This seemingly simple expression is complex enough to cover pricing for any
asset. The expression can be modified to handle returns, excess returns,
stocks, bonds, options, etc. The meaning of the payoff x and the price
change, but the same intuition applies.
The expected return on an asset is negatively related to its covariance with
the stochastic discount factor. Assets whose returns vary positively with the
sdf pay off when the marginal utility is high. That is, they provide wealth
in the states when it is most valuable to investors. Consequently, investors
are willing to pay high prices and accept low returns for these assets.
There are basically two ways of doing business. One is to take the IMRS as
given and interpret (2.18) as the Euler equation arising from the consumer’s
3
This object lives by many names, including the stochastic discount factor (sdf), in-
tertemporal marginal rate of substitution (IMRS), or benchmark pricing variable. It is
incorrectly referred to as the Radon-Nikodym derivative, Arrow-Debreu price, or state-
contingent claims price (unless the riskless rate is zero). While on naming conventions, the
risk-neutral probability measure is also referred to as the equivalent martingale measure
(EMM).
24 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
optimization problem. The goal would then be to explain asset returns. The
other view is to take the returns as given and explore the implications for m.
The characteristics of m depend upon the structure of the economy. If
the law of one price (LOP) is satisfied, there will exist (at least one) m such
that (2.18) holds. In the absence of arbitrage (NA), m is strictly positive. If
markets are complete then m is unique.
2.5.1 Basics
This presentation is for a discrete time, multiperiod model. Define the con-
sumption set c ∈ B(ei , p) ⊂ R × X. The budget constraints are c(0) =
e(0) − θ 0 p and c(T, ω) = e(T, ω) − θ 0 d(ω). Combining these two equations,
D̂θ = ĉ − ê. The attainable set D̂θ = ĉ ignores the initial endowment. I
will abuse notation and consistency by letting Q and π ∗ refer to the EMM.
The later is more appropriate for discrete settings. Also, dividend (payoff)
vectors and matrices are indicated by d and D.
Definition 1 The market is complete iff every consumption process is at-
tainable (M = X), or iff rank(D) = k.
Definition 2 An arbitrage strategy has non-negative, non-zero consumption
with e(0) = (0); D̂θ ≥+ 0
Definition 3 An Equivalent Martingale Measure Q (or π ∗ ) satisfies p =
D0 π ∗ /Rf .
Q exists iff there is no arbitrage, or iff an equilibrium exists. If markets
are complete then Q is unique.
Definition 4 A price functional Φ : R × M → R (Π : M → R) satisfies
Φ(c) = c(0) + Π(c(T )) = c(0) + θ 0 p for any θ such that c(T ) = θ 0 d.
This implies B(e, p) can be expressed as Φ(nc) = 0 where nc(t) ≡ c(t) −
e(t) ∈ M .
Π is unique even in an incomplete market and exists is there is an equi-
librium. A price system is viable: iff there is no arbitrage, iff Q exists, or iff
Φ (or Π) exists.
Definition 5 Ψ : X → R is an extension of Π if for all x ∈ M, Ψ(x) = Π(c).
A sequence of scaled prices is a Q-martingale.
2.5. PRICING KERNEL APPROACH 25
where π(s) is the (true) probability of state s. It follows then that m(s) =
φ(s)/π(s). To move to risk-neutral probabilities π ∗ , define
π ∗ (s) ≡ Rf m(s)π(s) = Rf φ(s),
P
where 1/Rf = φ(s) = E[m]. Then
X X π ∗ (s) E Q [x]
p(x) = φ(s)x(s) = x(s) = .
s s
Rf Rf
Stated differently
π ∗ (s)
= Rf m(s).
π(s)
The risk neutral probabilities give greater weight to states with high marginal
utility, the “bad” states. In discrete time, the “change of measure” is
Q
π ∗ π = Rf m =
P
In continuous time the analagous expression is
dQ f Q (x1 , . . . , xn )
= lim nP
dP n→∞ fn (x1 , . . . , xn )
where fn () represents the joint likelihood under the respective measure. This
expression is the Radon-Nikodym derivative, and is the limit of the likelihood
ratios. This random variable satisfies
Q P dQ
E (xT ) = E xT .
dP
26 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
p = D0 π ∗ /Rf .
π ∗ = Rf (D0 )−1 p.
m = pf π ∗ π = (D0 )−1 p π.
Once the EMM or pricing kernel are known they can be used to price any
other asset.
FOCs are
Solving,
u0 [c(s)]
φ(s) = βπ(s)
u0 (c)
2.5. PRICING KERNEL APPROACH 27
or
φ(s) u0 [c(s)]
m(s) = =β 0 .
π(s) u (c)
Thus m(s1 )/m(s2 ) = u0 [c(s1 )]/u0 [c(s2 )], so m gives the marginal rate of sub-
stitution between date and state contingent claims. In equilibrium, marginal
utility growth should be the same for all consumers
u0 (ci,t+1 ) u0 (cj,t+1 )
βi 0 = βj 0 .
u (ci,t ) u (cj,t )
Hence m is referred to as the IMRS. Taking the expectation of either m or
IMRS gives the price of a riskless bond.
1 cov(m, R)
E[R] = − (2.20)
E[m] E[m]
Model mt+1
CAPM a + bRW,t+1
a+ K
P
ICAPM k=1 bk fk,t+1
u0 (ct+1 )
CCAPM β u0 (ct )
APT b0 f
Black-Scholes exp[−(r + 21 σ 2 )τ + σdZ]
m as a Portfolio
The portfolio that maximizes squared correlation with m is a minimum vari-
ance portfolio. m∗ , the projection, also prices assets and can replace m.
p = E[mx] = E[(m∗ + ε)x] = E[m∗ x]
σm E[ri ]
≥ (2.21)
E[m] σr i
where r ∗ represents the return with the maximum Sharpe ratio. This holds
for any asset i, including the one with the maximum Sharpe ratio. To be
clear, the maximal Sharpe ratio measure the excess return on the tangency
portfolio r ∗ relative to its standard deviation (assuming a one-factor world).
Both the excess return on the tangent portfolio and the SR depend on Rf .
Rewriting as σm = E[m]SR, the H-J bound is a function of E[m]. As
we change E[m], we get a new Rf , a new tangency portfolio, and a new
Sharpe ratio. Plotting σm as a function of E[m] gives us the locus of points
comprising the H-J bound. Note that if we know Rf , the the bound is just
a point. These results are based on the law of one price (LOP), and do not
use the no arbitrage (NA) restricition that m > 0.
By imposing the NA restriction we can sharpen the bound given in (2.21).
The NA bound is very similar to the LOP bound for moderate values of
E[m], but as E[m] becomes more extreme (higher SR), the NA bound is
much stricter (higher). For payoffs x and Lagrange multipliers λ and δ,
m+ = [λ + δ 0 x]+
iid, then conditional and unconditional models are the same. Define
UMV iff E[Rp2∗ ] ≤ E[Rp2 ] ∀ Rp s.t. E[Rp∗ ] = E[Rp ]
there is no point in fundamental analysis. In fact, the random walk does not
have these implications since slowly adjusting prices would allow profitable
trading strategies. A problem with the random walk is that it simulatneosly
requires rational investors to eliminate profitable trading opportunites, but
also assumes investors irrationally pay for security analysis.
The martingale model was proposed as an alternative to the random walk
by Samuelson in the mid-1960s. A random variable xt+1 is a martingale with
respect to an information set Φt if
E[xt+1 ] = xt .
A fair game has the property that E[yt+1 ] = 0. Returns are a fair game if
prices and dividends follow a martingale. Finding a variable that can predict
returns means either that returns are not a martingale or that that variable
in not in the information set. More recent versions of market efficiency also
assume rational expectations.
The martingale will hold when investors have common, constant rate
of time preferences, homogeneous beliefs, and are risk-neutral. Note that
risk neutrality implies a martingale, but does not imply a random walk.
The reason is that a martingale allows dependence of higher moments on
the information set, whereas the random walk does not. Allowing for risk
aversion does not go very far in reconciling the martingale model with the
data.
There are several reasons not to base market efficiency on the martingale
model. In a setting such as the ICAPM, conditional expected returns depend
on dividends. Since dividends are autocorrelated the conditional expected
returns are partially forecastable in violation of the martingale model. Time
variation in the risk premium may also lead to failure of the martingale model.
Finally, most emprircal tests have a joint hypothesis problem. Rejecting a
model may mean either the model is wrong or the market is inefficient.
Cross-sectional Patterns
There is evidence that lagged variables are useful in predicting stock and
bond returns. Many of the results documented in the U.S. are also present
in other countries. Table 2.3 provides an overview of these patterns.
Interpretation of these patterns are difficult since many of these variables
are highly correlated, and much of the relation each has with returns comes
in January. At longer time horizons some of the effects, such as size and
E/P, tend to reverse themselves. A common criticism is that these variables
may be correlated with the true β when estimates of β are noisy. Chan &
Chen () show that average size and estimated beta in size-sorted portfolios
are almost perfectly negatively correlated.
Another issue that arises in interpretation of the cross-sectional regulari-
ties is whether they are all capturing the same underlying phenomenon. This
is especially likely considering price is in many of the variables.
Attempts to disentangle the effects are inconclusive. Some researchers
2.8. EMPIRICAL ASSET PRICING 33
claim size subsumes E/P, while others claim the opposite. Fama and French
(1992) claim that size and B/M together subsume E/P (and beta). Given
the way these tests are designed, the B/M variable may actually be a proxy
for the true beta. A stock that recently declined in price will have a high
B/M. This stock is also likely to be more levered than before its decline, so
it is now riskier and should have a higher beta. However the beta estimate
is generally based on returns several years prior, so the recent downturn is
likely to be washed out. In the end, the estimated beta may be too low, and
the high B/M may capture the added risk of the stock. Alternatively, the
B/M results may be due to survivorship biases in the COMPUSTAT tapes.
There are several calendar related patterns in returns. Most famous is
the January effect, where returns are much larger in January than in other
months. Possible explanations include tax-based trading, window dressing
by institutions, and liquidity trading. The January effect is most pronounced
for small firms.
The weekend effect describes the large negative returns from Friday close
to Monday close. It is not clear that all the abnormal return is due to the
weekend period, but Monday returns alone do not seem to account for the
entire effect. International evidence is mixed with respect to weekly patterns,
but many of the Asian markets have a Tuesday effect, which corresponds to
Monday trading in the U.S. There is some evidence that most of the returns
each month occur during the first two weeks. This may be due to portfolio
rebalancing caused by month-end salaries. Finally, there is a holiday effect,
where one third of the annual returns occur on the trading days preceeding
the eight holidays on which the market is closed.4
In a clever paper Berk (1995) addresses the fact that price is directly
related to size. The basic logic is very simple — risky firms will be discounted
at a higher rate, therefore current market values will be smaller. This will
give the appearance that small firms have higher returns, even though firm
size (future cashflows) and risk may be unrelated. Consider a set of firms
with log future cash flows c, log price p, and log return r = c − p. Further
assume size and risk are independent. Now regress returns on beginning of
period size
r = α 1 + β1 p + ε 1 .
4
This is misleading since positive and negative returns cancel out.
34 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
Variance Ratios
The random walk hypothesis implies the variance of asset returns scales with
time; a T -period return should have a variance T times as large as a one-
period return. A similar statistic can be derived using variance differences.
Finite sample properties can be significantly improved by using overlapping
observations and making appropriate degrees of freedom adjustments.
Positive autocorrelations suggest variance ratios greater than one. For the
equally-weighted portfolios, this seems to be the case, with V R(2) ≈ 1.2, and
increasing with longer-horizons. V R(16) ranges from 1.5 to 1.9, depending on
the time period (this effect is getting smaller as time goes on). These results
disappear in value-weighted portfolios. Looking at size-sorted portfolios, the
variance ratios are largest for the small-stock portfolios and are close to one
for the stocks in the largest decile. For individual securities the variance
ratios are close to one in general, and less than one for the longer horizons.
This is because there is some negative autocorrelation in individual security
returns due to the bid-ask spread.
The combination of negative autocorrelation in individual securties and
positive autocorrelation in portfolios gives rise to positive cross-autocorrelations.
This phenomena can be summarized as a stronger correlation between cur-
rent small-stock returns and lagged large-stock returns than between current
large-stock returns and lagged small-stock returns. More directly, large stocks
tend to lead smaller stocks. This can help explain the apparant profitability
of contrarian strategies.
36 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
Long-Horizon Returns
Shiller () and Summers () present models where stock prices have fads or bub-
bles, causing large slowly decaying swings from fundamental values. Shorter
horizon portfolio returns have little autocorrelation, while returns at longer
horizons have strong negative autocorrelation. Empirical evidence supports
these models, although the tests are based on small sample sizes and lack
power. Other empirical results indicate that the variance grows more slowly
than the time horizon, also consistent with the model. A general problem
is that that irrational bubbles in stock prices are not distinguishable from
rational time-varying expected returns. Long-horizon returns are also pre-
dictable with other variables such as D/P and E/P. These variables can
explain roughly a quarter of the variation in two to four year returns, much
more than is possible for shorter horizons.
? propose their contrarian viewpoint, where buying losers and selling
winners (measured over 3 to 5 year periods) produces excess returns. Others
have argued that the excess returns are due to differences in risk, although
a rebuttal paper from DeBondt and Thaler disagrees. It is possible that the
contratrian results are due to a size effect or some type of distressed-firm
effect.
P
the intercept restriction is αi = λ0 (1 − βi,j ). This is equivalent to mean-
variance intersection, meaning that the minimum variance boundaries of all
the asset returns and minimum variance portfolios intersect at a single point.
2.8. EMPIRICAL ASSET PRICING 37
Jensen, and Scholes (1972), and Blume and Friend (1973). In the mid-1970’s
the “anomalies” literature developed [see Fama (1991) for a review].
Common criticisms of these “anomolies” are sample selection and data
snooping biases. Kothari, Shanken, and Sloan (1995) claim that sample
selection biases drive the results of Fama and French (1992), although Fama
and French (1996b) dispute this claim.
Fama-MacBeth (1973)
FM perform introduce what has become a classic methodology for empirical
asset pricing tests. They test the Black and SL CAPMs using monthly
portfolio returns and the equally-weighted NYSE as the market. Their tests
examine (i) the linearity of the risk-return tradeoff, (ii) if variables other
than β matter, (iii) if the risk premium is positive, and (iv) if the return on
the zero-beta portfolio is equal to the riskless rate.
The procedure is as follows. First, portfolios are formed using estimated
β of individual securities over a four year period. Since measurement error
will systematically affect these portfolios, the betas are reestimated over a
five year period and averaged across assets to get portfolio β. The β for
each portfolio is recalculated each month over the next four years to cover
delistings. Returns for each of the 20 portfolios are regressed on the port-
folio betas. This is repeated each month, and the estimated coefficients are
averaged over time.
The results are generally supportive of the Black model but the estimated
riskless rate is higher than the market rate. Additional regressions including
β̂ 2 and the asset-specific risk indicate that the risk-return relation is linear
and there is no reward for bearing unsystematic risk.
Extensions by Litzenberger and Ramaswamy (1979) and Shanken (1992)
explicitly adjust standard errors for the EIV bias rather than form portfolios.
Shanken (1992) shows that the standard errors in Fama and MacBeth (1973)
do not properly reflect measurement error in β, overstating the precision of
the risk premium estimates.
importance of beta, size, B/M, leverage, and E/P in determining the cross-
section of expected returns. These variables had been previously documented
as important in the “anomalies” literature. Their general findings are that
beta is not systematically related to returns, while size and B/M subsume
the other factors.
The methodology employed is basically an extension of the Fama and
MacBeth (1973) procedure. The new steps involve the combination of ac-
counting and market data. All accounting data for the fiscal year ending
t − 1 is combined with returns measured from July of year t to June of t + 1.
Stock price data used to construct accounting ratios is from the beginning of
year t, while the size measure is from June of year t. This procedure ensures
all explanatory variables are known prior to the return.
In order to preserve the firm-specific accounting information, portfolios
are not used in the same way as in FM. Instead, portfolios are used to
calculate betas, which are then assigned to all firms in that portfolio. The
portfolios are formed by first forming size deciles, then forming beta deciles
within each size decile. In both sorts, breakpoints are set based on only the
NYSE firms. With these 100 portfolios, portfolio betas are calculated each as
the sum of the coefficient on current and prior month CRSP value-weighted
retutns. The beta for a particular stock can change over time as the stock
moves into different portfolios.
This two-way sorting procedure produces variation in beta that is unre-
lated to size. Univariate statistics show that average returns are related to
size, but unrelated to beta. This evidence is confirmed by the FM regressions.
Gibbons (1982)
Gibbons (1982) introduces a multivariate test of the CAPM and rejects
CAPM soundly using LR. He uses the CRSP equally-weighted index as the
market, estimates β over a 5 year period, and forms 40 portfolios. This mu-
tivariate methodology avoids the EIV problem, provides more precise risk
premium estimates, and has more power than previous tests. The nonlinear
restriction on the intercept is linearized with a Taylor-series expansion.
Stambaugh (1982)
Stambaugh (1982) shows inferences are not sensitive to proxy choice, but
are sensitive to the asset choice. He argues that W lacks power, LR has
40 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
Shanken (1985)
Shanken (1985) provides the asymptotic results for the multivariate tests in
Gibbons (1982). He shows that LM < LR < Q∗ (= W ). These statistics are
all transformations of one another. Shanken uses QA
C , which includes consid-
erations for sample size and degrees of freedom adjustments. Recalculating
Gibbons’ LR statistic, Shanken shows p = 0.75, so the rejection inference is
overturned.
The cross-section regression test (CSRT) used in this paper does not
require specifying HA . The procedure estimates beta in a first stage, then
using betas in cross-sectional regressions. The CAPM is rejected using the
equally-weighted CRSP index.
MacKinlay (1987)
MacKinlay (1987) discusses power of multivariate SL CAPM tests. Finds
that tests against an unspecified alternative have low power. The type of de-
viation from the model is important in determining power. These tests have
reasonable power against cross-sectional random deviations. However, these
tests have low power against omitted factors. He rejects in some subperiods
but fails to reject overall.
Hansen Singleton
Reject model. See QM notes for more details.
2.8. EMPIRICAL ASSET PRICING 41
The test of the model requires estimation of both the factor loadings (B)
and the factor prices (F). The two primary testing approaches differ in the
order these variables are estimated. Cross-sectional tests estimate (B) in the
time series, the use these estimates for a number of firms to estimate (F) in
the cross-section. The time series tests perform the estimation in the reverse
order.
Fama and MacBeth (1973) provide the basic approach for the cross-
sectional test [see Section 2.8.3 for details]. Some of these tests estimate
the factors statistically while others use economic specifications. Chen, Roll,
and Ross (1986) specify five economic variables as factors: industrial produc-
tion, unexpected inflation, changes in expected inflation, credit quality, and
a term premium. The find that the specification is good in the sense that
many of these factors are priced and additional factors such as the market
return, consumption growth, and changes in oil prices are not priced. Chan,
Chen, and Hsieh (1984) perform a study similar to CRR, but are also able to
explain the size anomaly. However, Shanken and Weinstein (1990) reply that
these two studies are sensitive to the portfolio formation used. Specifically,
forming size-based portfolios at the end of the estimation period causes mis-
estimation of the βs to show up systematically in the size portfolios, biasing
the subsequent risk premium estimate.
The time series test method was originally proposed by Black, Jensen,
and Scholes (1972) Factor prices are estimated in the first pass, and their
sensitivity in the second pass. The null bypothesis is that the intercept is
zero (or α = (1 − Bi )λ0 in the absence of a riskless asset).
In summary, the tests of the APT generally reject the model, but the
APT seems to perform better than alternatives such as CAPM. The APT
has been used in applications which offer indirect evidence of its success as
well. In fund performance tests, the model indicates fund managers have
negative Jensen’s alphas, which is a similar result from the CAPM models
(the magnitudes differ though). In calculating the cost of capital, CAPM
and APT yield similar results. In event studies the APT does not seem to
offer much gain over a single factor model.
mixed evidence, but the returns tests now reject the model.
Volatility tests
Then pt = E[p∗t ] or
p∗t = E[p∗t ] + εt = pt + εt
This says actual prices should be less volatile than the “model” price from
the dividend series. In fact, we find the opposite. Actual prices are more
volatile than would be expected from dividends.
There are several problems with the above test. First, the price series
is nonstationary so it needs to be modified. Second, the infinite sum is a
problem in a finite sample. This can be overcome by including a terminal
value in the distant future. Third, the observed dividend series is not series
of independent observations, but rather a single realization. This creates a
small sample problem in implementing the test. Fourth, there is no way to
capture time-varying expected returns in this framework. Finally, different
specifications of the investors’ information sets lead to different critical val-
ues, making interpretation difficult. In summary, there are several necessary
adjustments to the variance bounds test. Even after making these adjust-
ments, there is no way to hold size constant so there is no way to meaningfully
compare the power of this test to alternatives.
Shiller (1981) uses the perfect foresight price decomposition to derive
varaince bounds. He finds the actual price is five to thirteen times more
volatile than the perfect foresight price. His analysis indicates that the price
change volatility is highest when information about dividends is revealed
smoothly. Large, occasional information releases result in prices with lower
variance but higher kurtosis.
44 CHAPTER 2. ASSET PRICING
Returns tests
Tests of long horizon returns have found that there is siginificant negative
autocorrelation over the three to five year horizon, indicating a tendancy for
mean reversion.
Orthogonality tests
A model-free version is not subject to the nuisance parameter problem which
plagues the variance bounds test. Both the model-free and the model-based
orthogonality tests are better-behaved econometrically than the returns tests.
Chapter 3
Fixed Income
3.1 Introduction
The pricing of bonds differs from pricing other assets such as equity primarily
because bonds are nonlinear. A bond has:
1. fixed, known maturity
2. fixed, known terminal (face) value
3. fixed, known periodic cash flows
4. more thinly traded (at least “older” issues)
Term structure models can be viewed as time series models of the stochastic
discount factor.
Duration, Convexity
45
46 CHAPTER 3. FIXED INCOME
• The forward rate is the difference in the log prices of bonds of different
maturities at the same point in time.
• Premium is the holding period return less the one month spot rate.
Fama (1984)
Fama uses a regression approach to separate the information about expected
future spot rates from information about the expected premium.
1. premium = f (forward - spot)
2. ∆ spot = f (forward - spot)
Results are that forward rates can predict premiums which vary through
time and the expected future spot rate up to five months out. Froot has a
response to Fama’s finding, suggesting that Fama ignores systematic expec-
tations errors.
Fama–Bliss (1987)
Find that forward rate forecasts of near-term changes in interest rates are
poor, but forecast power increases at longer time horizons. Interpret this as
evidence of a slow mean-reverting process. Also find evidence of time-varying
expected premiums, and that the ordering of risks and rewards changes with
the business cycle.
Stambaugh (1988)
An affine yield model implies a latent variable structure for bond returns.
Fewer state variables than forecasting variables puts testable restrictions on
forecasting equations for bond returns. Reject CIR with non-matched ma-
turities (avoids measurement error). Addresses source of errors, their conse-
quences, and how the choice of instruments affect the outcome of the tests
1 = Et [Mt+1 Rn,t+1 ].
3.6. AFFINE MODELS 47
dr = (α + βr)dt + σr γ dZ
Model α β γ Specification
Merton (ABM) 0 0 αdt + σdZ
Vasicek 0 (α + βr)dt + σdZ
√
CIR SR 1/2 (α + βr)dt + σ rdZ
Courtadon 1 (α + βr)dt + σrdZ
Dothan 0 0 1 σrdZ
GBM 0 1 βrdt + σrdZ
CIR VR 0 0 3/2 σr 3/2 dZ
CEV 0 βrdt + σr γ dZ
Duffie-Kan 1/2 (α1 + β1 r)dt + (α2 + β2 r)γ dZ
Assumptions
• distribution of the SDF is conditionally lognormal;
• bond prices are jointly lognormal with the SDF;
• (additional strong assumptions): homoskedastic mt+1 (Vasicek)
Properties
• Log prices (and yields) are affine in state variables.
• Analytic solution of pricing equations (outside affine yield generally
requires numerical solutions e.g., Black, Derman, and Toy).
• Trivial rejection of model without addition of an error term.
• Limits the way in which interest rate volatility can change with the
level of interest rates.
• Implies risk premia on long bonds always have the same sign (single-
factor).
• Applies to real bonds only ?
• The model can be renormalized so that the yields themselves are the
state variables (e.g., a two-factor model would use two yields).
3.6. AFFINE MODELS 49
3.6.1 Vasicek
To get this model begin by writing the sdf as a forecast and an innovation
−mt+1 = xt + εt+1 .
The sign is a convention. Assume that xt+1 follows an AR(1) process and,
for simplicity, its innovations are uncorrelated with εt+1
The basic CIR model is a general equilibrium, continuous time model of the
real returns on the asset in an economy [see section 2.3.5]. The general model
is specialized to the term structure in ?. The asset is used to smooth con-
sumption, so its value depends on its hedging effectiveness, or its covariance
with consumption. The model is derived in an option pricing framework
by constructing a riskless synthetic portfolio, which must earn the riskless
rate in equilibrium. The hedge portfolio is constructed of bonds of differing
maturities; it is assumed that the market price of risk is the same for bonds
of all maturities. A recursive approach must be used to solve the model.
Although the model claims to endogenously derive the interest rate process,
it is a direct consequence of the specification of the state variable.
Assumptions
• identical individuals with time-additive log utility (Dunn and Singleton
relax this assumption but do not have much success)
• xt+i and mt+i are normal conditional on xt for i = 1, but non-normal
for i > 1.
• y1t = −p1t = xt (1 − β 2 σ 2 /2) y1t is proportional to the state variable
and its conditional variance is proportional to its level.
• restricts interest rates to be positive
Predictions
• Variance proportional to the state variable.
• All bond returns are perfectly correlated (general prediction of all
single-factor models).
• Prices are a deterministic function of the parameters, the short rate,
and maturity; an error term must be specified to keep the model
testable.
• The long rate converges to a constant.
• Stable parameters (λ, κ, θ, σ).
• Forward rate fnt = −Bn2 xt σ 2 /2
• time variation in term premia ?
3.6.5 Alternatives
• Non-linear models (γ = 3/2)
• Non-parametric models
• Markov switching models
• GARCH
• Higher-order ARMA processes
• Several state variables
1/2
−mt+1 = x1t + x2t + x1t εt+1
• Assume pricing errors are iid - a strong assumption given the differences
in trading frequency across maturities; an alternative is to assume vari-
ance increases with maturity and is correlated across maturities.
• Estimated r systematically overstates implied short rates (recall Fama
MacBeth; Merton’s model of heterogeneous information sets).
• Find estimated variance is erratic, although similar in magnitude to
CIR weekly time series estimates. √
¯
• find annual average of implied standard deviation (σ̂ r̂) appears to be
an unbiased predictor of time series estimate of the standard deviation
of changes in the short rate.
• Bills appear to be better described by the model than bonds.
• Discount issues’ prices are underestimated, premiums are overestimated.
• Evidence that the errors are not iid.
Derivatives
4.1 Introduction
Virtually all derivatives pricing is based on some sort of arbitrage argu-
ment. This chapter outlines derivative pricing in terms of both discrete-
and continuous-time models. Several derivations of each model are given
to show the links between them. More advanced topics are covered rather
superficially.
Rf − d u − Rf
π1 = and π2 = .
u−d u−d
55
56 CHAPTER 4. DERIVATIVES
Cu − Cd uC d − dC u C u − Su∆
∆= and B = = .
S(u − d) Rf (u − d) Rf
The stock holding ∆ has the interpretation of the partial derivative of the
call price with respect to the stock price. The current price of the option is
S + P = C + Ke−rτ .
4.2. BINOMIAL MODELS 57
Call Put
d=0 Never In the money
d>0 Before ex-date After ex-date
Volatility does not enter the equation directly since is affects the put and call
in the same way.
If the option is American it is necessary to check for early exercise at each
node in the tree. To do so simply uses C = (Ch , Cx )+ where the h indicates
the hold value as calculated above and x is the early exercise value. Early
exercise is never optimal for a call on a stock that does not pay dividends.
For the put to be exercised early it must be sufficiently in the money. If the
stock does pay dividends, calls may be exercised just before the ex-date and
puts just after the ex-date.
The number of steps in the tree affect the answer for the option price. The
model value converges to the true value as the number of nodes gets large,
but at a computational expense. The model price generally changes very
little after about a hundred steps. There is an “odd-even” effect where the
calculated value oscillates between over- and under-valued as the number of
nodes in incremented. To remove this error, you can use a weighted average
of prices calculated at n − 1, n, n + 1 nodes.
E[ri ] = rf + βi (E[rm ] − rf ])
2
and βi = σim /σm = ρim σi /σm . Let λi = ρim [E[rm ] − rf ] /σm , the correlation-
adjusted market risk premium. Rewriting the CAPM relation,
E[ri ] = rf + λi σi
58 CHAPTER 4. DERIVATIVES
or
E[Ri ] = Rf + λi σi .
θP u + (1 − θ)P d
E[Ri ] =
P
and
Pu − Pdp
σi = θ(1 − θ).
P
Substituting these expressions into the modified CAPM expresion and rear-
ranging yields
P u π + P d (1 − π)
P =
Rf
p
where the risk-neutral probability π = θ − λi θ(1 − θ) is a function of the
true probabilities and the correlation-adjusted market price of risk. To avoid
arbitrage, all assets must be priced with the same risk-neutral probabilities.
Every dollar investment in the stock should be priced according to
uπ + d(1 − π)
1= .
Rf
Rf − d
π= .
u−d
V u π + V d (1 − π)
C=
Rf
where
√
Rf − d erτ − e−σ τ
π= = σ √τ √ .
u−d e − e−σ τ
√ √
Assume a 50% probability of the up-state to get u = eσ τ
and d = e−σ τ
.
Re-expressing V u and V d
√ √
V u = C(eσ τ
S, t + τ ) and V d = C(e−σ τ
S, t + τ ).
√ √ 1 √ √ 1
eσ τ
= 1 + σ τ + σ2τ e−σ τ
= 1 − σ τ + σ2τ erτ = 1 + rτ.
2 2
√ √ 1 √
C(eσ τ
S, t + τ ) = C + (eσ τ
− 1)SCS + (eσ τ − 1)2 S 2 CSS + τ Ct
2
and similarly for the down state. Substituting all this into the expanded bino-
mial formula and simplify by cancelling like terms and drop terms involving
higher orders of τ gives the Black-Scholes PDE
1
Ct = rC − rSCS − σ 2 S 2 CSS .
2
60 CHAPTER 4. DERIVATIVES
By Ito’s Lemma
1
dC = (Ct + µSCS + σ 2 S 2 CSS )dt + σSCS dW = µ̂C Cdt + σC CdW.
2
Taking expectations and setting the two expressions equal gives the Black
Scholes PDE
1
Ct = rC − rSCS − σ 2 S 2 CSS
2
∂x 1 ∂2x dS 1 1
dx = dS + (dS)2 = − (dS)2 = (r − σ 2 )dt + σdZ.
∂S 2 ∂S 2 S 2S 2 2
4.3. BLACK SCHOLES MODEL 63
where
ln(S/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)τ √
d1 = √ and d2 = d1 − σ τ .
σ τ
64 CHAPTER 4. DERIVATIVES
4.3.3 Hedging
Hedging involves forming portfolios to reduce or minimize various types of
risk. The most common hedge is a delta-neutral position. This investment
has an expected price change of zero when the stock price changes — the
loss from a drop in the stock is offset by a gain on an option. This is a local
hedge, since the delta changes when the stock price changes. A gamma-
neutral hedge preserves the delta-hedge. Other hedges include rho for the
interest rate and vega for volatility. Again, these are partial hedges and
assume everything else is constant.
To determine the appropriate hedge, find the options with the maximium
and minimum pricing error per unit of stock-equivalent risk model−market
∆
. Buy
and sell these options in amounts proportional to the inverse of the delta to
balance the stock-equivalent risk. For a gamma hedge, combine two delta-
neutral portfolios such that the gammas balance.
∂C(St )
lim ∗ = 1.
St →St ∂St
dS
= (r − δ)dt + σdW̃
S
4.4. ADVANCED TOPICS 65
so
1
dC = [Ct + (r − δ)SCS + σ 2 S 2 CSS ]dt + σC dW̃ = rCdt + σC W̃ .
2
The resulting PDE is
1
Ct + (r − δ)SCS + σ 2 S 2 CSS − rC = 0
2
with boundary conditions
CT (ST ) = (ST − K)+ and C0 (S0 ) = sup E Q [e−r(τ −t) (S0 − K)+ ].
τ ∈[t,T ]
dS + (δS − rK)dt
Integration
Broadie & DeTemple and Barone-Adesi & Whaley. Let Ct and ct denote
American and European call option values. We can write
Ct (St ) = ct (St ) + εt
so
Z T
Q −rt + Q
C0 (S0 ) = E [e (ST − K) ] + E [ε e−rt df (τ )].
0
CHECK
66 CHAPTER 4. DERIVATIVES
L-U Bound
Broadie & DeTemple find upper and lower bounds on American options by
using capped calls. A capped call value can be found for a given early exercise
path.
BBS/Richardson Extrapolation
Ho & Lee
The Ho-Lee () model generates parallel shifts in the yield curve. In a binomial
setting it produces a recombining tree. It is based on
D (t) [π + (1 − π)δ t ]
Rt,j =
D (t+1) δ t−j
where δ = exp[−2φ(τ /n)1.5 ], D (t) is the current price of the bond maturing
at time t, and φ is the standard deviation of the log yield of one-year discount
bonds.
BDT
The Black, Derman, & Toy () model features a fixed ratio of adjacent prices
at each point in time, αt . The rate can be expressed as rt,j = αj rt,0 . In the
Ho-Lee model this ratio is fixed for all t.
m
interest rate process (tree). In terms of notation, let Dt,k denote the price
of a bond maturing at m observed at time t in state k. Since the tree does
not recombine, there are 2t nodes at time t. The states are indexed with the
lowest (all downs) state as 0 and the highest state as 2t − 1. By convention,
up states are when the bond price increases (and interest rate decreases).
The risk neutral and true probabilities of an up-state are π and θ. There are
two equations expressing current price and volatility as functions of the next
period prices.
m m
m
πDt+1,2k+1 + (1 − π)Dt+1,2k
Dt,k =
1 + rt,k
1 1
ln m
Dt+1,2k
− ln m
Dt+1,2k+1
σt+1 =
2(m − t − 1)
Corporate Finance
5.1 Introduction
Corporate finance covers a range of issues related to the choice of capital
structure, distributiuon of cashflows, and issuance of securities. Asymmetric
information problems are common and is the subject of much of the work
in corporate finance. Also important are the agency costs that arise from
the conflicts of interest between the decision makers and other parties. A
common example of an agency costs is between the manager and the outside
owners of the firm. The compensation contract offered to managers is one
way of dealing with this agency cost.
Many of the earlier works make relatively strong assumptions. The last
few sections attempt to understand the implications of relaxing these as-
sumptions. When demand for assets is not perfectly elastic there will be
price effects caused by changes in quantity. Similarly, imperfections may
give rise to financial innovation.
71
72 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
greater cost on the “low quality” agents than on the “high quality” agents
to prevent mimicking.
A common element of signaling papers in finance is that the source of the
informational asymmetry generally comes from managers’ superior forecasts
of future cash flows. Investors are typically homogeneous with respect to
taxes and restrictions on trading, otherwise clienteles would arise. Models
also usually prevent the manager from trading personally.
The outcomes depend on the nature of the informational asymmetry. If
the asymmetry is over the assets in place, but not the new project, overpricing
and project scaling are the most efficient signals. If there is asymmetric
information about the project’s value, and good firms have more valuable
projects than bad firms, signals which burn money after the issuance are
dominant.
The overinvestment (when only project value is asymmetric information)
can be eliminated through money burning, but the underinvestment problem
(when there is differential information about the assets in place) is not com-
pletely solved. The distinction that the burned money comes from project
cash flows is important. Equity financed money burning is an inefficient
signal.
Akerlof (1970)
In his famous “lemons” paper, Akerlof (1970) shows how quality uncertainty
can affect the size and average quality in the automobile market. In extreme
cases, markets can fail completely. A case is made for the role of certain
institutions in improving the efficiency of the market.
The seller of the cars know more about the quality of the car than the
buyers. Demand depends on price and average quality, QD = D(p, µ). The
average quality will also depend on price, µ = µ(p). Supply depends on price
as well, QS = S(p). In equilibrium, S(p) = D(p, µ(p)). A low average quality
will cause the owners of good cars not to sell, further lowering the average
quality.
Several applications of the basic model are discussed. In the insurance
market, healthy individuals will tend to opt out of the market, leaving the
insurer with a disproportionately large share of the unhealthy. Costs of
dishonesty must include both the direct costs as well as the indirect costs of
driving business out of the market. There are several institutions that can
mitigate these types of problems. Risk transferring guarantees can allow the
5.2. INFORMATION ASYMMETRY/SIGNALING 73
owners of good cars to get their fair value. Brand-names and chains can also
reduce quality uncertainty, as do licensing practices.
Spence
Spence (1973) develops the signaling model in the context of the job market.
This is really just one example of an investment under uncertainty problem.
Here the potential employer can not observe the quality of the applicants, but
can use education to make rational inferences about the applicant’s quality.
Education separates the types of applicants because it is costly to obtain, and
more so for the low types. The high types will obtain just enough education
to make it unattractive for a low type to mimic.
The employers offer wage schedules that are a function of the educational
signal and other (non-signal) indices. Individuals choose education levels to
maximize wages net of signaling costs.
For the signaling equilibrium to work the costs of signaling must be neg-
atively correlated with productive capacity. Otherwise, lower quality types
will overinvest in the signal to mimic higher quality types. The use of indices
results in forming probability distributions conditional on both the signal
and the indices. This segments the population by indices, and these subsets
need not have the same equilibrium.
Spence (1974) is a more general description of the signaling environment.
There must be an information asymmetry where the seller knows more about
the good than the buyer. The seller signals and the buyer responds. The
signal is based on the anticipated response of the buyer.
has slack S, which is fixed and publicly known, and would need to raise
additional equity E = I − S. There are three dates in the model. At time
t − 1 the market has the same information as management; valuations are
given by Ā and B̄. At time t the manager learns a and b, while the market
knows only the distribution of à and B̃. Additional assumption are perfect
markets, costly signaling, and passive existing shareholders.
Managers act in the interest of old shareholders by maximizing V0old =
V (a, b, E). The market value of the shares will generally be different from
the manager’s valuation since the market does not know a or b. Denote the
market value P 0 if stock is issued and P otherwise. The managers will issue
new stock when
In words this says the old shareholders must get more of the new value than
the new shareholders get of the original value. The firm is more likely to
issue when b is high or a is low. Rearranging, the indifference equation is
b = (E/P 0 )(S + a) − E.
Above this line the firm will issue and invest, below it will do nothing. The
issue price P 0 is given by
P 0 = S + Ā(M 0 ) + B̄(M 0 )
signs. In this case the firm will never issue equity. Any time it decides to
issue it will use debt. This extreme condition can be tempered by introducing
costs of debt such as bankruptcy or agency costs. Note that if the information
asymmetry is about the variance of value rather than the mean, then equity
will dominate debt.
The model makes a number of predictions. It says it is generally better
to issue safe securities, a pecking order result. Firms with insufficient slack
may forgo good investment opportunities — the underinvestment problem.
Firms can build up slack by retaining earnings or issuing securities when
information asymmetries are small to avoid some of these problems. Firms
should avoid issuing risky securities to pay dividends. Stock price will fall
when managers have superior information and they issue securities. A merger
between a firm with little slack and one with a lot of slack is likely to increase
value, but negotiating such a merger is likely to be difficult.
The basic Myers and Majluf (1984) framework has been extended in a
number of ways, including dividend policy, scale of investment, project tim-
ing, and public offerings (overpricing and underpricing).
incentives to act in the best interest of the agent. The principal can address
this problem by establishing the appropriate incentives and/or monitoring
the agent. Incentive alignment is rarely free; agency costs are defined as the
sum of monitoring costs, bonding costs, and the residual loss.
Jensen (1986)
Jensen (1986) discusses how free cashflows (FCF) can cause agency costs by
allowing managers discretion to make bad investments. Reducing FCF can
minimize a manager’s ability to waste resources and it also subjects the firm
78 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
to more frequent monitoring since it has to access the capital markets more
often.
The agency costs of debt have been cited as a reason to use less debt.
Jensen points out that debt can also help reduce agency costs by reducing
FCF. Debt can be viewed as a substitute for dividends in this sense. Ad-
ditional debt will also serve to increase efficiency as bankruptcy becomes
more likely. There is evidence supporting these claims. Leverage-increasing
transactions are associated with increases in equity value. LBO targets tend
to have high FCF and low growth opportunities. Also, strip, or mezzanine,
financing limits the conflicts of interest between classes of security holders.
The FCF hypothesis also applies to takeovers. Firms with high FCF and
unused borrowing power are likely to undertake bad mergers. Takeovers, es-
pecially hostile ones, can generate the crisis needed to make changes. Within
declining industries, mergers are likely to be value-enhancing since they re-
move resources from a relatively unproductive sector. Acquirers tend to
have performed well, generating excess cash to pursue the acquisition. Tar-
gets tend to either have poor managers and poor performance or good per-
formance and significant FCF. Cash or debt financed takeovers generally
provide larger benefits than transactions financed with stock.
Fama (1980)
Fama (1980) explains how the separation of ownership and control in a large
corporation is an efficient organizational form. The basic idea is that manage-
ment is a special type of labor which coordinates inputs and makes decisions.
Management rents its human capital to the firm. Risk bearers provide capi-
tal ex ante in exchange for uncertain future payments. The capital markets
and managerial labor markets provide discipline to the manager. Monitoring
occurs within and among management, up and down the chain of command.
The board monitors top management; it can include top management but
should also include outsiders.
A distinction between ownership of the firm and ownership of capital
is made. Since the firm is a collection of contracts, no one really owns it.
Rather, security holders own claims on the cashflows. With this view, control
rights over a firm’s decisions does not necessarily lie with the security holders.
In order to hold the manager accountable there must be some mechanism
for ex post settling up. The general necessary conditions are uncertainty
about managerial talents or tastes, labor markets that efficiently use past
5.4. CAPITAL STRUCTURE 79
Miller (1977)
This paper is a study of the way taxes affect capital market equilibrium.
Pre-“Debt and Taxes” the view was that optimal capital structure involved
balancing the corporate tax advantage of debt against the costs of financial
distress (loss of tax shields, overinvestment, underinvestment, monitoring
costs, etc.). Miller’s “horse and rabbit stew” refers to the corporate tax
advantages of debt dominating the costs associated with bankruptcy. Miller
adds personal tax considerations of investors to the mix. Taxes are important
in the capital structure decision because they affect aggregate supply and
demand for corporate securities.
Using a bond market equilibrium analysis, Miller argues that the higher
costs of borrowing negate the entire benefit of tax shields so the capital
structure choice is irrelevant for individual firms, although there will be an
optimal amount of aggregate debt. With progressive corporate taxes and/or
if the differential information-related costs of debt versus equity are convex
in the amount of debt, then capital structure may in fact matter.
The classic M&M Proposition I is modified to include personal taxes
(1 − τC )(1 − τS )
VL = V U + 1 − B.
(1 − τB )
Proposition I (with taxes) says that firms can increase value by issuing debt.
But if this is the case then the market is not in equilibrium. Assume for
simplicity that there are no capital gains taxes, all bonds are riskless, and
there are no transactions costs, Miller’s equilibrium is given by the curves S
and D in Figure 5.1. The flat part of the demand curve represents the demand
for taxable bonds by tax-exempt investors. To get taxable investors to hold
bonds, the rate must be high enough to offset the taxes. The equilibrium
is where τC = τB . In the more general case, with capital gains taxes, the
equilibrium condition is
(1 − τC )(1 − τS ) = (1 − τB ).
5.4. CAPITAL STRUCTURE 81
R
D = r0 /(1 − τB )
S = r0 /(1 − τC )
r∗ S1 = r0 /(1 − τC0 )
r0 S2 = r0 /(1 − τC0 ) − d
Q∗ Q
Figure 5.1: Bond Market Equilibrium
The area between the supply and demand curves below the equilibrium is the
“bondholder surplus.” This arises because rates are driven up to the point
where the marginal investor’s tax rate is equal to the corporate rate, but all
investors can get the same rate in the market.
A crucial assumption in Miller is the inability to perform tax arbitrage:
selling assets taxed at a high rate to buy those taxed at a lower rate. Cliente-
les may arise because of differences in tax treatment of various organizational
forms and differences in transaction costs [Shin and Stulz (1996)].
For all states up to s3 the firm loses some of its tax shields,
R even though it
may not be in bankruptcy. The value of the firm is given by S B(s)+E(s)ds.
In Miller’s world, ∆ = Γ = 0 so s1 = s2 = s3 . Taking the partial wrt B,
P̄B = P̄C (1 − τC ). The interpretation of the flat section of the supply curve is
that all tax shields are fully utilized in all states of nature. The curve begins
to slope to compensate the firm for some of these tax shields going unutilized
in some states.
In the new equilibrium, the net tax advantages of debt are equated with
the expected default costs
Firms with low earnings may lose some of the value of their tax shields.
The incremental value of interest tax shields decreases as firms increase lever-
age, implying a negative slope for the supply curve of taxable corporate
bonds. This is depicted as S1 in Figure 5.1
Adding leverage-related deadweight costs d will cause the tax advantage
of corporate borrowing to become more significant. At the margin, the dead-
weight cost per dollar of borrowing, d∗ is the same for all firms. The new sup-
ply curve S2 has a more negative slope because of the deadweight costs. This
reduces the level of aggregate borrowing and the equilibrium risk-adjusted
rate of return. Leverage-related deadweight costs increase the marginal tax
advantage of borrowing because they decrease the supply of bonds, eliminat-
ing some of the “bondholder surplus.”
5.4. CAPITAL STRUCTURE 83
Myers (1977)
In Myers (1977) the firm is viewed as a collection of assets in place and growth
opportunities. Risky debt reduces the value of the real options, an agency
cost. This cost arises either from a suboptimal underinvestment strategy or
from the costs of avoiding underinvestment. This underinvestment results
even when managers are acting in shareholders’ best interest. The level of
borrowing is inversely related to the relative size of the growth opportunities
and is determined by the tradeoff between these costs and the tax benefits of
debt. The shareholders absorb the costs of avoiding underinvestment, which
include:
• Rewrite/renegotiate debt contract
• Shorten maturity prior to “exercise date”
• Mediation
• Dividend restrictions
• Reputation effects
• Monitoring
Vt = VE,t + VD,t .
84 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
If the value of debt depends on the volatility of the firm value, then the
transfer of value from equity to debt is
In conclusion, Myers’ work indicates that assets in place can support more
debt than growth opportunities can, capital intensive businesses with high
operating leverage can support more debt, and more profitable firms should
have more debt. This logic is similar to Shleifer and Vishny (1992) who say
more liquid assets can support more debt.
Masulis (1980)
Masulis (1980) examines the valuation effects of capital structure changes
on security value. The sample of intrafirm exchange offers and recapitaliza-
tions abstracts from asset changes that accompany many other changes in
capital structure. The types of transactions considered include issuing debt
for equity (E → D), preferred for equity (E → P ), and debt for preferred
(P → D).
There are three primary sources of valuation effects. Tax-related stories
predict changes in equity value to be positively related to increases in debt.
Bankruptcy and reorganization expenses should cause a negative relation
between equity value and leverage increases. Wealth redistribution from
agency costs are a zero sum game, so gains to one group of security holders are
at the expense of another group. Two other theories that are not considered
are signaling and the offer premium hypothesis.
The methodology employed uses comparison period returns. This ap-
proach essentially calculates the abnormal return for a security as the de-
viation from the mean return over a comparison period. These abnormal
returns are averaged across all securities to get a portfolio abnormal return.
The results are largely consistent with the tax and wealth redistribution
effects, but provide little evidence about the bankruptcy costs. Leverage in-
creasing transactions tend to increase equity value, while leverage decreasing
transactions tend to decrease shareholder value.
5.4. CAPITAL STRUCTURE 85
this supports the costs of financial distress, but the proxies may also be re-
lated to non-debt tax shields and collateral value. The size effect for small
firms is taken as evidence that transaction costs may be important. The
analysis is unable to explain the cross-sectional variation in convertible debt.
The lack of evidence in many cases may be due to problems with the mea-
surement model.
Graham (1996)
Graham (1996) is the first paper to take a careful look at the role of marginal
taxes in the capital structure decision. Economic theory indicates marginal
rates are what matter, but previous studies have used statutory rates as a
5.5. DIVIDENDS 87
matter of convenience.
The approach for estimating marginal rates is to calculate the present
value of current and future taxes on a $1 increase in income based on simu-
lations. The main analysis regresses (D1 − D0 )/D0 on the marginal tax rate,
relative cost of debt, probability of bankruptcy, non-debt tax shields, and a
list of control variables.
The results find that the marginal tax rate is important in explaining
capital structure. The difference between statutory and marginal tax rates
is also important, providing evidence that firms still use it in the capital
structure decision. Firms with volatile tax rates tend to use more debt as
expected with a progressive tax schedule. The relative cost of debt has the
wrong sign, but there may be a multicollinearity problem.
5.5 Dividends
Developing a model of dividend policy consistent with firms maximizing prof-
its and individuals maximizing utility has been a challenge. MM moved the
thinking away from the view that more dividends were better. Dividend ir-
relevence in perfect markets is based on the idea of replicating any desired
payoff by buying/selling shares. Transactions costs remove the ability of in-
dividuals to make home made dividends. There may be clienteles that prefer
dividends. There are also behavioral arguments, market timing stories, and
institutional constraints (“prudent man” rules).
Stylized Facts:
• Corporations payout a significant portion of earnings as dividends.
• Dividends have been the predominant form of payout.
• Individuals in high tax brackets receive substantial dividends.
• Corporations smooth dividends.
• Market reactions are positively correlated with dividend changes.
Black (1976) presents arguments for and against dividends as the “divi-
dend puzzle.” A firm may choose to pay dividends to provide a return ex-
pected by investors, even though this may be irrational. With transactions
costs, dividends may be a better way to distribute wealth to shareholders
than selling a few shares. The dividends may be used to signal information,
such as higher expected future earnings. Finally, dividends could be used to
expropriate wealth from bondholders. Reasons not to pay dividends include
88 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
In this two period model a firm has a concave investment technology F (I)
and makes investments It at t = {0, 1} that generate random earning X̃t+1 =
F (It ) + ε̃t+1 . The errors are unconditionally mean zero, but E[ε̃2 |ε1 ] = γε1 .
The sources and uses of funds identity requires
I1 + D1 = X̃1 + B1 ,
The managers choose the net dividend and investment to maximize the
weighted average of the two valuations subject to the sources/uses constraint.
5.5. DIVIDENDS 91
The weights are the fraction owned by selling stockholders and the fraction
retained. The public can use its information about the net dividend to infer
the earnings for which the dividend is optimal. Although there are an in-
finite number of informationally consistent valuation schedules, one Pareto
dominates the others. A firm with the lowest earnings will choose the same
net dividend and investment level as in the full information case, giving a
boundary condition. The solution to an ODE satisfying the maximization
problem has all net dividends at least as large as the optimal level.
Higher dividends serve as a signal of higher current earnings. The better
firms are able to pay out a higher dividend and forgo productive investments.
Since the investment technology is concave, forgoing projects has a higher
marginal cost for the lower quality firms. This separating equilibrium restores
consistency, but at the expense of underinvesting.
There is some empirical evidence supporting the validity of dividends as
signals. Examples include Vermaelen (1981) and Prabhala (1993), but ? do
not find supportive evidence. Since the Miller and Rock (1985) model is in
response to the observation that unexpected dividend changes are positively
related to stock price changes, the one would expect to find some supportive
evidence.
Prabhala (1993)
Prabhala (1993) presents a framework where dividends serve as a signal of
the quality of investment opportunities. This comes in response to earlier
literature where Tobin’s q and dividend yield are claimed to explain stock
price reactions to dividend announcements arising from agency costs of free
cashflows and the existence of dividend clienteles. This same evidence is
consistent with a signaling model which subsumes the importance of the
other effects.
The motivation for the signaling interpretation is that the other interpre-
tations are inconsistent with rational expectations. Since q, dividend yield,
firm value, and stock price are useful in predicting dividends, they should be
used in making optimal forecasts. The alternative interpretations depend on
dividend changes being unanticipated.
This model can be viewed as an extension of Miller and Rock (1985),
where the information asymmetry now relates to the quality of growth op-
portunities θ. A larger net dividend gets a higher market price at t = 1,
but reduces investment and the cashflow at t = 2 which is distributed to the
92 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
Vermaelen (1981)
Vermaelen (1981) examines the price behavior of securities when firms repur-
chase shares in a tender offer or on the open market. This allows testing the
importance of information/signaling, personal taxes, corporate taxes, and
bondholder expropriation.
Repurchases serve as a signal of firm value since managers’ ownership,
etc. creates an incentive to increase stock price by announcing a tender
offer. Repurchasing shares above their true value will dilute the value of
the managers’ holdings. But with positive information, the manager may be
willing to pursue a tender offer. The more valuable the information, the lower
the marginal cost to buying back large fractions, offering a higher premium,
5.5. DIVIDENDS 93
and holding more shares in the firm. The price during the offer is given by
PA = αPT + (1 − α)P̄E
with α being the fraction purchased to the fraction tendered.
Vermaelen finds that repurchase announcements are followed by a perma-
nent increase in stock price. Signaling seems to be the predominant influence.
There is no evidence of wealth expropriation from bondholders or tendering
shareholders. Those that do not tender are worse off than those that do, but
they are better off than before. The results are also inconclusive with respect
to the leverage and personal tax hypotheses.
Open market transactions are associated with a negative CAR prior to
the announcement, followed by a an abnormal return of roughly 2% around
the announcement. Tender offers exhibit a flat CAR prior to announcement,
but an abnormal return on the order of 15% around the announcement.
Following the announcement, the tender offers have a decline the CAR, which
is consistent with the expiration of some of the offers. Looking specifically
at the expiration of offers, there is a negative abnormal return.
The abnormal return to shareholders, IN F O, is regressed on a number
of signaling variables to test this hypothesis. IN F O is defined as
I/(N0 P0 ) = (1 − FP )(PE0 − P0 )/P0 + FP (PT − P0 )/P0 ,
the weighted average of the return to tendered and non-tendered shares.
The results are consistent with the signaling hypothesis. The size of the offer
premium, target fraction, managerial ownership, and subscription level are
all positively related to the value of information.
Eades, Hess, and Kim (1994) examine the time series of ex-dividend day
pricing and identify variation due to tax effects, strategic short-term trading
(dividend capturing), and business cycle effects. They find the variability in
pricing is positively correlated with dividend yield and dividend pricing is
countercyclical. Dividend capturing reduces ex-date returns and depends on
transactions costs, interest rates, and dividend yield.
The methodology forms ex-date portfolios on each calendar date. Stan-
dardized excess portfolio returns (SER) are the ex-date portfolio return (in-
cluding the dividend) less the average non-ex-date portfolio return, divided
by the estimated portfolio standard deviation. The portfolios are further sub-
divided into high-yield and low-yield portfolios. The SER of the low-yield
portfolio is always positive, has relatively low variation, and zero to negative
autocorrelation. The SER for the high-yield portfolio changes from positive
to negative, is more volatile, and exhibits high positive autocorrelation.
The tax effect hypothesis is tested by including dummy variables for dif-
ferent tax regimes in an ARIMA model. There is little evidence of a tax
effect. The test of the dividend capturing hypothesis includes a dummy for
the introduction of negotiated commissions. This lowers transactions costs
and makes it easier for corporations to perform tax arbitrage. The dummy is
significantly negative, especially for the high-yield firms. This is consistent
with the dividend capturing hypothesis. The dividend capturing hypothe-
sis also predicts dividend capturing is negative related to T-bill yields and
positively related to dividend yields. The evidence also supports these pre-
dictions. Analysis of the business cycle effects indicate that low-yield firms
are valued countercyclically (procyclical ex-date returns). The high-yield
firms do not exhibit this pattern because the dividend capturing effects work
in an offsetting direction.
5.6. CORPORATE CONTROL 95
The Manne (1965) paper is the first to introduce the idea of a market for
corporate control. For the market for corporate control to be effective there
must be a high positive correlation between managerial efficiency and share
price. Takeovers lead to competitive efficiency among managers and are
more efficient than bankruptcy. They allow increased mobility of capital
which provides more efficient allocation of resources. Corporate control may
be transferred through a proxy contest, direct share purchases, or mergers.
Proxy contests are the most expensive, most uncertain, and least used.
This method tends to be used when the issue is over compensation not man-
agers’ policies. Proxy contests are more likely with disperse share ownership.
The share price generally rises on the announcement.
Direct share purchases may be open market purchases, direct purchases
of blocks from large owners, or tender offers. With lower ownership concen-
tration other shareholders are more likely to participate in the premium and
outsiders are willing to pay less for control.
Mergers typically offer cost advantages over the other methods. In a
merger the manager’s interest are generally in line with the owner’s. The
main exception is that managers do not have an incentive to buy managerial
services as cheaply as possible. When incumbent managers recommend a
merger there are likely to be side payments. Within an industry mergers
may be an alternative to bankruptcy. These mergers typically reduce the
information gap between the target and bidder.
Shleifer and Vishny (1986) examine the role of large shareholders as monitors
and the ways in which they bring about improvements in corporate policy.
They basic idea is that someone needs to monitor the managers, but it is too
expensive for small owners to do so. Large shareholders are better able to
bear the monitoring costs and will do so when it is in their best interest.
In the model the large shareholder L has a probability I of getting a value
improvement Z above q from a probabilty distribution F (Z) for a cost C(I).
The large shareholder begins with α shares so he needs an additional .5 − α
96 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
and cT represents the costs of making the bid. The small shareholders will
tender if
Let π ∗ (α) and I ∗ (α) be the optimal amounts, and Z c (α) be the cutoff value
at which L is indifferent about taking over.
There are a number of important results. First, the premium decreases
in L’s stake, π ∗0 (α) ≤ 0. Second, a larger initial stake permits takeovers for
smaller improvements, Z c0 (α) < 0. Third, with a larger stake L invests more
in monitoring, I ∗0 (α) > 0. Next, the expected increase in firm profits rises
with α, given L has an improvement. Therefore, an increase in α decreases
the premium but increases the market value of the firm. Increasing cT will
increase the takeover premium but decrease the market value of the firm.
There is not an equilibrium where L attains more than the amount necessary
for control, say 50%. This is because the small shareholders will infer that L
is trying to profit at their expense.
“Jawboning” is an alternative to a takeover. Essential L uses his size as a
threat of takeover. The managers may then be willing to negotiate and make
some of the changes L seeks. This method can be incorporated into the above
analysis by including the condition that (5.3) be greater than αβZ, where
β is the proportion of the potential value gain attainable through negotia-
tion. Jawboning will typically be used for making less valuable improvements
since the costs are typically lower. As before, the value of the firm increases
with α, but now the option to jawbone can actually make the larger share-
holder worse off. This is because the the required bid on the takeovers rises.
Small shareholders can be worse off as well since takeovers are typically more
valuable to them than private negotiation.
Assembling a large block is a complicated problem. If L can accumulate
a position anonamously he can deprive small shareholders from their gains
from his larger holding. If L trades publicly small shareholders will bid the
price up to reflect the potential value gain. This makes it expensive for L
to get his position. He will want to increase his position again to offset
these additional costs. But the small shareholders will see this and holdout
from selling the first time. Similarly, L will never fragment his stake because
5.6. CORPORATE CONTROL 97
doing so reduces the value of his remaining shares since there will be less
monitoring. Assembling a block is a one-way proposition. It is expensive to
do, so once done it should not be undone. Large blocks should be sold intact
to preserve the value of monitoring.
Dividends may provide the compensation to L necessary to get him to
assemble a block. Large shareholders are typically corporations who enjoy
tax benefits on dividend income. Dividends are a sort of bribe from the small
shareholders to the large to get them to serve as monitors.
Stulz (1988)
Stulz (1988) shows that managements’ voting power is important in deter-
mining capital structure. For small α, ∂V /∂α > 0, for large α, ∂V /∂α < 0.
The intuition is that the premium offered in a takeover increases with α,
but the probability of an offer falls. When α is too high, it is beneficial
to make a takeover less costly to managment with a golden parachute, for
example. There is no benefit in this model to the manager holding the con-
trolling interest. He will be able to block any takeover in this case. This
implies α∗ ∈ [0, 1/2). The conflict of interest in the model arises from the
fact that successful tender offers affect the wealth of outside shareholders and
managers differently.
These results are demonstrated in a single period model where the man-
ager owns α of an all equity firm. At the beginning of the period there is
homogeneous information and a bidder decides if he wants to get information
on the target. He pays I for information delivered at the end of the period.
The bidder will bid for half the shares a price of the no-bid value plus a
premium on all the shares, y/2 + P . All the benefits of the value increase go
to the target. The probability of a successful offer depends on the likelihood
shareholders’ tax rates are low enough to accept the bid and the fraction
of outsiders needed to make the offer a success. The bidder chooses P to
maximize the difference between the gain and the premium times the prob-
ability of making a successful bid. With α > 0, the bidder has to persuade
1
z(α) = 2(1−α) > 1/2 of the outsiders to tender. Increasing α decreases the
probability of a successful bid so the bidder’s expected value falls as well.
For the bidder the optimal premium increases with α.
Allowing the manager to tender preserves the general results. More risk-
averse managers will hold less shares since they are risky. With DARA pref-
erences, α will increase with the manager’s wealth. Managers with greater
98 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
V
MSV
JM
Stulz
α
Figure 5.2: Managerial Ownership and Firm Value
benefits from control will hold more share to protect their interests. Managers
will also hold more shares when the sensitivity of offer success to changes in
ownership is large.
Due to risk aversion and budget constraints, managers typically hold only
a small portion of the shares. Alternatives that increase (some) their voting
power can increase firm value. Changing the debt ratio or repurchasing
shares will increase α. Convertible debt and delayed conversion can also help
since conversion will decrease α. By changing the requirements for control
a super-majority rule or differential voting rights effectively increase α. The
manager may also have voting power over shares he does not own. In ESOPs
and pensions the manager is often the trustee. A standstill agreement gives
the manager voting power over a large shareholder’s position but may also
effectively eliminate a bidder.
Stylized Facts
• target SH earn large positive AR and negative AR on failure
• bidding SH earn zero to negative AR
• multiple bidder contests magnify AR
• bidder AR were lower in 1980’s than before
• joint MV increases on average
• success is highly uncertain and positively related to bid premium and
toehold
• defensive measures reduce probability of success
• target reaction to defensive measures and greenmail is negative
• large target mgt. share increases bid premium
• prob. of hostile takeover lower with high target D/E
• bid revisions are large jumps
• puzzlingly low toeholds
• mixed evidence about means of payment
Complete Information
With complete information about the future value, no shareholders will ten-
der for less than the future value; all of the potential benefits go to the target
5.7. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS 101
shareholders and none to the bidder. The bidder may be able to make a profit
by diluting the value of minority shares after the takeover. The threat of this
dilution may induce the target SH to tender at a price less than the full
future value. If the bidder has a toehold he will also be able to profit even
without dilution. In practice the gains on the toehold are not likely to be im-
portant since toeholds are typically small. A bidder may be able to threaten
the target SH in other ways to get them to tender as well. One example
is to threaten to enter the target’s market and compete with them, thereby
reducing the value of the target.
Incomplete Information
A bidder may have a better idea about the future value than the target.
Under rational expectations, targets know that bidders will try to use their
superior information to under-bid. In equilibrium, the free-rider problem
remains and bidders will still refuse to tender. There are two types of equi-
librium, one where offers are uninformative, the other where the offer provides
information.
This problem was originally studied in Grossman & Hart (). The two-
tiered tender offer and dilution of holdout shares are potential solutions to
the problem. The difference is the type of signaling possible in a two-tiered
bid, which allows separation of the signals for undervaluation and private
synergies. This type of offer can eliminate the incentive to free-ride without
voluntary dilution. Another approach is to solve the free-rider problem by
allowing the individuals realize the effect their action has on the outcome.
This is a rational, but not a competitive, outcome.
In Shleifer and Vishny (1986) there are incentives in the form of divi-
dends for large shareholders to monitor the managers. This increases the
value of the shares for all shareholders, including the small shareholders.
The intention of acquiring a large block also raises the share price, making
it more costly to acquire the block. The dividend incentive argument, which
presumes the large shareholders are corporations, is not well-supported em-
pirically (cite ??).
A low bid may signal that the expected improvement is small. Since
bidders with high potential improvements have a stronger incentive to bid
high, a low bid is a credible signal. The probability of an offer’s success
increases with the bid premium and size of the toehold and decreases with
the number of additional shares needed for control.
102 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
Defensive Actions
Defensive actions may reduce shareholder value if it blocks a potentially good
takeover, but the may also improve value by increasing the incentive to bid
high and encouraging other bids. Some actions, such as the poison pill reduce
the incentive to bid high. In general, strategies that impose greater costs on
the bidder when the offer succeeds than when it fails reduce the incentive to
bid high. In summary, some defensive measures are in the shareholders’ best
interest, while others are used to create private benefits for the manager.
More subtly, a defensive measure may change the informational asym-
metry. Decreasing the importance of publicly known improvements decrease
the probability of success. Another defensive measure is to signal to the tar-
get shareholder that their shares are undervalued, in which cases they are
less willing to tender. Target management may do this by increasing lever-
age and/or repurchasing shares. There may also be reputational effects to
consider.
Pivotal Shareholders
A pivotal shareholder is more likely to tender than a non-pivotal one. A
large blockholder is much more likely to be pivotal than a small investor.
The ability of a bidder to revise a bid becomes very important with pivotal
shareholders.
Means of Payment
The means of payment has important consequences for the information re-
vealed by the bidder. Offering equity may indicate that the bidder’s shares
are overvalued [Myers and Majluf (1984)]. An offer of cash may signal high
value. Cash offers create an adverse selection problem for the bidder. Offer-
ing equity can reduce the risk of overpayment by making the terms of the
offer contingent on the target’s value. The target shares in gains or losses so
it will tend to reject the transactions that are likely to be undesirable. Fi-
nally, there are tax advantages to using at least 50% equity financing. With
no private information on the part of the target, the target can increase the
auction price with equity. If the target has private information about the
synergy, the bidder could benefit by conditioning the target’s acceptance on
its value.
5.7. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS 103
In the English auction model of bidding, bidders trade incremental bids until
the bidders with the lowest valuations drop out. The winning bid will be
just above the second highest valuation. A very important assumption is
that bids can be costlessly revised and resubmitted.
If bids are costless to submit but there is an investigation cost, the bidder’s
strategy will change. Now he will want to submit a large initial bid to avoid a
costly bidding contest. The high initial pre-emptive bid does not deter other
bidders directly by requiring other bidders to improve, but rather it is a
signal that the initial bidder has a high valuation and reduce the probability
of additional bidders. All the bidders that decide to investigate will then
enter into the English auction. If bids are costly to submit, then the revised
bids will move in large steps.
Management may undertake activities to discriminate among bidders. In
general, exclusion of bidders is viewed as bad for target shareholder. There
are some reasons that these defensive measures may be good. For example,
target management may reject a bid if the target firm is worth more, or if
it is likely that other bids will come. Other measures may be repurchasing
shares to make a takeover more difficult, or removing the incentive for the
takeover by fixing existing problems. Removing bidders may increase ex ante
the frequency of bidding competition. It is optimal to pay greenmail only if
there is no white knight.
Mitchell and Lehn (1990) ask “Do Bad Bidders Become Good Targets?”
The answer seems to be yes. The idea is to see whether takeovers discipline
managers of firms that have demonstrated poor acquisition programs. This
suggests that at least part of the gains to targets may be in reduced agency
costs. The authors find that there is little change in value for acquisitions
in general. But there is a significant decrease in value for bidders who are
subsequently acquired. For all firms, the average gain for an acquisition that
is later divested is smaller. This effect is especially true for firms that later
become targets themselves. Finally, the probability that a firm becomes a
target is inversely related to the announcement effects of its acquisition.
In defining bad bidders it is important to distinguish between overpay-
ment, which can not be fixed, and poor ongoing performance, which presum-
ably can be fixed. Also note that most targets of hostile takeovers did not
previously make an acquisition, so this is only a partial explanation.
The main analysis is based on an event study methodology of abnormal
bidder returns around the bid announcement. Average abnormal returns
for different classifications of the bidders are compared. On average, bid-
ders earn a negligible return, but non-targets actually earn a positive return.
Subsequent targets, especially those in hostile takeovers, earn negative re-
turns. Since the divestiture rate is higher for subsequent targets than for
non-targets, it appears that the bad bidders are bad because the have poor
ongoing performance. Logit regressions give evidence that firms that make
bad acquisitions are more likely to get takeover offers than firms that make
good acquisitions.
The Mitchell and Mulherin (1996) paper addresses the impact of industry
shocks on the high level of restructuring in the 1980s. The hypothesis is
that tender offers, mergers, and LBOs are among the lowest cost means of
responding to industry change. The study is motivated by the high concen-
tration of restructuring within industries. If these activities are driven by
industry effects, the announcement of one firm in an industry should provide
information about the prospects of the other firms in that industry. In this
sense it is not surprising that we see poor performance following a takeover.
These activities are not the cause of a problem, but rather a response to a
5.8. FINANCIAL DISTRESS 107
problem.
The study is based on the roughly 1,000 Value Line firms in 1981. These
firms are tracked throughout the rest of the decade and marked as to the
type of takeover target they were (if at all). The analysis indicates that
over the full period there is significant clustering of takeover activity at the
industry level. Furthermore, within industries there is also clustering over
time. Across all industries takeovers are spread fairly evenly over time. This
provides evidence that takeovers are responses to industry-specific shocks.
Further analysis indicates that this industry clustering was less common in
the 1970s. Regressions of takeover activity on variables measuring sales and
employment shock and growth indicate that it is industry change, not growth,
that drives the takeovers. The findings in this paper indicate the problem of
asset liquidity in Shleifer and Vishny (1992) may be important.
Information Asymmetries
Insiders and outsiders may disagree about the value of the firm due to dif-
ferential information. Further, they may have incentives to intentionally
misrepresent the value of their claims. The state of financial distress may be
misrepresented as well (e.g., discount bonds). Insiders of a firm with poor
prospects may hide the truth, whereas insiders of a firm with better prospects
may claim they are in distress hoping for a favorable debt renegotiation. In-
termediate payments such as coupons and deviations from the APR rule can
reduce these problems.
Agency Costs
The various investor groups and managers have different incentives in the
bankruptcy process, leading to conflicts of interest. Some of these groups
may join together to form a coalition to increase their bargaining power.
Managerial Behavior
Fama (1980) posits that a competitive market for managerial talent is an
important mechanism to control the behavior of corporate managers. Man-
agerial behavior is likely to be influenced by financial distress for several
5.8. FINANCIAL DISTRESS 109
Evidence on Restructurings
Asset and financial characteristics jointly affect the choice of restructuring
mechanism. Private workouts are more common for firms with (i) more in-
tangible assets, (ii) fewer classes of debt, and (iii) greater reliance on bank
financing. There is evidence that the market is capable of predicting whether
a workout will be successful, and that workouts are a more efficient form of
reorganization than Chapter 11.3 Evidence from the Japanese markets in-
dicates that firms with close ties to a main bank are able to invest more
and increase sales more following the onset of financial distress. The close
relationship with the main bank internalizes some of the free rider and asym-
metric information problems.
Asset Sales
A firm may sell some of its assets to relieve its financial distress. Asset sales
may be different for distressed firms than for healthy firms. As discussed in
Section 5.15, Shleifer and Vishny (1992) suggest that the secondary market
for interfirm asset sales may be subject to adverse liquidity problems. The
3
This may be misleading since the firms that choose Ch. 11 may have done so optimally
given the characteristics of their bankruptcy.
110 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
purchaser may be exposed to unique risks in the transaction with the dis-
tressed firm, or they may also be distressed if there are industry problems.
These factors combine to reduce the attractiveness of the asset sale. Evidence
indicates that asset sales among distressed firms are more common when the
firm has several divisions.
New Capital
If the firm still has good projects it may wish to acquire additional capital.
If the firm is in distress, it may have difficulty raising capital, as in Myers
(1977). Underinvestment arises because much of the benefit from the new
capital goes to the old debtholders. To solve this problem, new securities
should be senior and/or asset-backed.
Liquidation (Ch. 7)
Reorganization (Ch. 11)
• automatic stay
– stops principal and interest payments to unsecured creditors
– secured creditors lose rights to collateral, may receive “adequate
protection” payments
– effectively extends maturity of debt
– Executory contracts can be assumed or rejected
– reduces blocking power of debtholders and leads to renegotiation
• debtor-in-possession
– Current management and directors typically retain control
– Management can file reorganization plan within 120 days, exten-
sions are common
– incremental senior borrowing is allowed, strip seniority/collateral
from existing debt
• Negotiation
– All classes of creditors and court must approve agreement
5.8. FINANCIAL DISTRESS 111
Prepackaged Bankruptcy
A firm is allowed to simultaneously file for bankruptcy and give its plan of
reorganization. This allows the firm to get the efficiency of the private re-
structuring, yet retain some of the benefits of the formal proceeding (e.g., the
cramdown and certain tax benefits). Prepacks may also reduce the holdout
problem inherent in workouts.
James (1995)
The paper by James (1995) attempts to understand the conditions under
which a bank will take equity in a distressed firm. Bank debt is generally
thought to be easier to renegotiate than public debt since coordination is
easier. Banks have limited incentives to make unilateral concessions, since
this will create a wealth transfer to junior claimants. Banks are more likely
to take equity when bankruptcy costs are high, such as when a firm has
significant growth opportunities.
James examines roughly 100 bank debt restructurings in the 1980s. In
some cases the firms attempted restructuring of public debt as well. The
restructurings involved either forgiving financial obligations or modifying the
terms of the debt.
There are five general findings. First, whenever the bank takes equity the
public debtholders (if any) also take equity. Public bondholders are much
more likely to act unilaterally than are banks. Second, banks tend to make
larger concessions when there is no public debt. Third, banks also tend to
take relatively large equity positions and hold them for several years. Fourth,
banks are more likely to take equity when the firms has a small proportion
of public debt, more valuable growth opportunities, greater cashflow con-
straints, poor prior operating performance. Finally, the firms in which banks
take equity tend to perform better subsequently than the ones in which they
do not.
Hotchkiss (1995)
The basic goal of Hotchkiss (1995) is to see if Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceed-
ings are effective in reviving troubled companies. Results indicate that a large
number of firms are not viable after the reorganization and that existing man-
agements’ role in the process is associated with continued poor performance.
The latter point may mean either that the process favors management or
that these distressed firms have difficulty in attracting new managers.
The paper includes an analysis of post-bankruptcy operating performance
in terms of accounting profitability, deviation from cashflow projections,
and subsequent distress. Many of the firms increase in size shortly after
bankruptcy. The firms begin with average profitability in their industry five
years prior to bankruptcy. Closer to the filing, performance deteriorates.
Following confirmation of the plan performance improves somewhat, but a
5.8. FINANCIAL DISTRESS 113
number of firms continue to have trouble. The cashflow forecast errors are
significantly negative each year, beyond any industry effect. This result may
be due to incentives to make high forecasts; the managers who remain in
control tend to make overly optimistic forecasts. Finally, roughly a third of
the firms file for a second restructuring within a few years.
Logit regressions provide additional evidence about firm characteristics.
Large firms are more likely to emerge as public companies and are less likely
to report negative operating income. There is strong evidence that retaining
the pre-bankruptcy CEO is positively related to poor post-bankruptcy per-
formance. Finally, there is some evidence that firms filing in New York are
more likely to remain in distress.
Weiss (1990)
Weiss (1990) performs an examination of the direct costs of bankruptcy and
violation of the absolute priority rule. He finds direct costs average about
3% of firm value (20% of equity value) the year prior to bankruptcy. The
absolute priority rule is frequently violated, especially in New York. There is
no evidence that these cases are resolved more quickly. Larger transactions
are more likely to violate strict priority since there are more opportunities to
extract concessions.
One view is that the violation of APR is to compensate equityholders
for not exercising their option to delay the proceedings or pursue actions
detrimental to the senior debtholders. Evidence suggests that equity mar-
kets anticipate the deviation from APR, and the junior debt incorporates a
premium for APR violations.
Betker (1995)
In order to understand the effectiveness of prepackaged bankruptcies, Betker
(1995) documents the costs and sources of economic gain associated with
this method. The time spent in bankruptcy is much shorter, 2.5 months in
a prepack versus 25 months in Chapter 11. The total time including prelim-
inary negotiations is similar to Chapter 11 and is long relative to workouts.
The direct costs are estimated to be about 3%, very similar to the results in
Weiss (1990) for Chapter 11 proceedings. Indirect costs in a prepack may be
lower, but it is not clear by how much. It is possible that the indirect costs
would be similar to a workout. Prepacks appear to offer some tax advantages
114 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
Stylized Facts
• Retained earnings are most common source of financing
• Debt is used more than equity, net retirement of equity in 1980’s
• Increased use of leverage over time
• Equity is issued relatively more frequently during expansions
• Private placements are becoming more important
• Gradual switch from rights to firm commitment
• Strong preference for firm commitment for non-equity issues
• IPOs use firm commitment (60%) or best efforts (40%)
• DRIPs and ESOPs have replaced rights offerings
• Underwritten offers are more expensive (directly), but more common
5.9. EQUITY ISSUANCE
Table 5.3: Theories of Security Issuance Reactions
115
116 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
Firm Commitment
In a firm commitment the investment bank assumes the risk of the offer. It
essentially buys the offer from the issuer and is responsible for selling it. The
process begins with an SEC filing. Next, a preliminary prospectus stating
a range of offer prices and the maximum number of shares is issued. After
SEC approval, the final offer price is set and a final prospectus is issued. The
underwriter’s guarantee begins once the final offer price is set. Competition
among underwriters has led to the “bought deal,” where an investment bank
will buy an entire issuance outright. Firm commitment becomes more at-
tractive with less asymmetric information, more risk-averse issuers, less risk-
averse underwriters, less price uncertainty, or when the investment bank’s
effort is more observable.
Best Efforts
Rights Offers
Current shareholders are given short-term warrants in proportion to their
shareholdings. Shareholders can either exercise the warrants or sell them.
The subscription price is typically 15-20% below the current market price.
Sometimes rights offers use standby underwriting to guarantee the proceeds
of unsubscribed shares. Rights offers in the U.S. are typically fully sub-
scribed.
Indirect Issuances
Convertibles, warrants, options, DRIPs, ESOPs are examples of indirect
methods of equity issuance. Stein (1992) develops a theory for convertible
issuance as ‘back door” equity financing. DRIPs and ESOPs have replaced
rights offerings to some extent.
Shelf Registration
The issuer can pre-register for the issuance of a security over a two year
period. This can reduce the direct costs of issuance but it increases the
information asymmetry problem since it is easier for managers to time their
offers.
Negotiated Bid
A firm can select its investment bank through either a negotiated or compet-
itive bid process. Negotiated bids are more common, especially among larger
issue, even though they are more expensive. The main users of competitive
bid offers are utilities, which are required to do so. Possible explanations in-
clude side payments to managers, increased accounting-based compensation
to managers, lower variability in costs, reduced agency costs, and protection
of proprietary information.
Convertible debt offers have higher flotation costs than similar sized non-
convertible offers, consistent with the hypothesis that issue costs are related
to security volatility. Not surprisingly, underwriter compensation is higher in
negotiated contracts than in competitively bid contracts. Underwriter com-
pensation has decreased since the introduction of shelf-registration, although
this may be due to selection bias issues.
Several firm characteristics are correlated with direct flotation costs [see
Smith (1986) and Eckbo and Masulis (1992)]. The models use direct flotation
costs as a percentage of issue proceeds as the dependent variable. A positive
intercept indicates there are fixed costs to the issuance. Measures of size
indicate that the costs are a decreasing, convex function of size, indicating
there are economies of scale. High shareholder concentration also lowers
issuance costs (this may be due to an increased reliance on subscription
precommitments). The direct costs are positively related to stock volatility.
Dummy variables indicate that rights offers have the lowest direct flotation
costs, and firm commitment offers the highest. These results are robust to
the time period used and across industrial and utility firms.
Issuers often grant an overallotment option, allowing the underwriter to
purchase additional shares if the offer is oversubscribed. This increases the
underwriter’s incentive to sell the issue, reducing the risk of failure.
5.9. EQUITY ISSUANCE 119
There is some evidence supporting the hypothesis that equity offers will be
more frequent in an expansion. The argument is that there are more prof-
itable investment opportunities in these times, and firms are less likely to
forego investment projects because of underpricing. Additional evidence in-
dicates that the announcement effect is less negative during expansions for
equity issues, while announcements of debt issuances are not effected. The
Myers (1984) pecking order hypothesis suggests firms will issue equity in eco-
nomic downturns because they are less likely to have excess cash and their
leverage is likely to have increased as market values of equity have fallen.
There relative regularity of debt issuances raises the possibility that the an-
nouncement effect is small because the market anticipates the issuance. Jung,
Kim, and Stulz (1996) and Opler and Titman (1995) provide evidence that
the debt-equity choice is predictable.
5.9. EQUITY ISSUANCE 121
Eckbo and Masulis (1992) model the choice between a rights issue and an
underwritten offer as an extension to Myers and Majluf (1984). In the model,
shareholder takeup k is an important determinant of the flotation method.
Firms using uninsured rights offers may use subscription precommitments
to credibly signal a high takeup. The precommitments in rights offers and
underwriter certification in firm commitment offers serve to reduce the wealth
transfer between current shareholders and outsiders.
Firms with more dispersed ownership will tend to choose underwriting.
Firms with less discretion over their issuance, such as a utility, will tend to
use a rights offer. The model predicts that the announcement effect will be
most negative for firm commitments offers, followed by standby rights and
uninsured rights. This analysis can be applied to other flotation methods as
well.
To analyze the determinants of direct costs, they estimate a regression
with measures of size, percentage change in shares, ownership concentration,
return standard deviation, and dummies for offer type. The results indicate
there are significant fixed costs and economies of scale. A positive coefficient
on the change in shares variable indicates there are adverse selection costs.
High ownership concentration lowers direct issuance costs, perhaps through
precommitments. More volatile returns are associated with higher costs since
there is increased underwriting risk. After controlling for issue characteris-
tics, rights offers are still less expensive than standby or firm commitment
offers. Having documented the rights issue paradox, the authors present a
model to explain it.
In the model, firms will issue if the value of the projects exceeds the direct
cost and dilution from issuing undervalued securities, b−(f +c) ≥ 0. The cost
c(k, m) depends on the level of existing shareholder participation. Managers
select the flotation method m to maximize firm value. The market gets
information about k through precommitments, trading volumes and actual
subscription levels.
With full participation the dilution cost is zero. When k < 1 some un-
dervalued firms will find it too costly to issue. In this sense k is similar to
the inverse of slack. High-k firms select uninsured rights and use takeup to
substitute for the underwriter guarantee. Firms with k ∈ (kf , ks ) will choose
122 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
standby rights. The lowest k firms will not bother paying the additional
rights distribution costs and will just use firm commitment offers. If a firm is
overvalued then high-k firms may choose either uninsured rights or they may
“hide” with a firm commitment offer. If they are detected they will sell at
a lower price or cancel and forgo the project. Since the market understands
these strategies, the high-k firms will face the lowest adverse selection costs
and the low-k firms the highest costs.
The authors test their model using an event study methodology. Con-
sistent with prior literature, the negative market reaction is strongest for
firm commitment offers and weakest for uninsured rights. After adjusting
for flotation costs, either type of rights issue has a negligible effect. Reac-
tions are less negative for utilities, consistent with smaller adverse selection.
Firm commitment offers are generally associated with stock price runups,
whereas this effect for standby or uninsured rights are smaller or negligible,
respectively.
ratio. A puzzling finding is that the security choice of firms least subject to
information asymmetry are the most sensitive to recent returns.
There are several possible explanations of equity issuance after run-ups.
The optimal capital structure could simply change over time. If firms whose
growth opportunities improve have price runups, these firms should desire
relatively more equity financing. An agency theory explanation is that addi-
tional debt constrains a manager’s ability to grow and raises the probability
of default and firing. The observed behavior is also consistent with the Myers
and Majluf (1984) model where the firms with overvalued securities issue. A
behavioral explanation is that managers want to avoid dilution as a rational
response to an irrational market.
The analysis is performed in two stages. In the first stage debt ratios
are regressed on proxies for growth opportunities and size to get predicted
debt levels. Deviations from the predicted level and control variables are
then used to predict the probability of debt issuance is a second stage. The
second stage regressions are further stratified by size, dividend policy, and
utilities.
Their findings do not fully support any of the proposed theories. Partial
support comes from several observations. Profitable firms issue debt or re-
purchase shares to offset the accumulation of retained earnings. The larger
issuances tend to involve equity, perhaps in response to the higher fixed costs.
Stock return and M/B are good predictors of equity issuance. The results
on convertible debt generally fall between debt and equity. Firms that issue
short-term debt are less profitable than equity issuers, whereas long-term
debt issuers are more profitable.
The results from the stratified regressions are less supportive of the theo-
ries. Utilities, firms that pay dividends, and firms followed by more analysts
are more sensitive to recent returns in their security choice. Small firms are
less sensitive to price runups. In the more active market for corporate control
in the mid-80s, there is no evidence that managers are less willing to issue
equity following a stock price decline.
Overall, abnormal returns are negative for equity issues and insignificant
for debt issues. For equity issues with high prior excess returns the an-
nouncement abnormal return is positive. The correlation from the firm type
predicted in the logit regression and abnormal returns is positive for equity
issues and negative for debt issues. This is evidence supportive of the agency
theory but not the pecking order theory.
The general results indicate that firms issuing equity tend to either have
valuable growth opportunities or lack valuable growth opportunities but have
excess debt capacity. These firms lacking valuable growth opportunities have
more negative stock price reactions to announcement of equity issuance.
Other evidence indicates that some firms issue equity to benefit the man-
agers rather than the shareholders.
127
128 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
to get the first few investors to participate, starting a cascade. Booth and
Chua (1996) argue that shares are more valuable to investors when they
are liquid. Providing a more dispersed ownership structure will increase
the liquidity of the shares. Shares are underpriced to compensate a broad
investor base for costly information acquisition.
Long-Run Underperformance
The is significant evidence that IPOs perform poorly after the initial large
returns. The magnitude of this underperformance is on the order a –15%
CAR over the following three years. This type of underperformance is also
present in closed-end funds and REITs.
There is some evidence supporting each of the following theories of under-
performance. The divergence of opinion argument of Miller (1977b) is that
the buyers of IPOs are the most optimistic. With greater uncertainty, the
difference between the optimistic and the pessimistic is larger. As time goes
on, information will be revealed that will cause the difference of opinion to
converge, and therefore the price will drop. There is some survey evidence
supporting this theory. The impresario hypothesis suggests that investment
bankers underprice initially to create the appearance of excess demand. Un-
der the windows of opportunity hypothesis there is a sort of dynamic pecking
theory where firms will issue equity when it is overvalued in general.
Cycles
Cycles in both volume and underpricing are well documented but hard to
explain as rational. One explanation is changing risk composition, meaning
more risky offerings are underpriced more, and there may be a clustering of
IPOs by similar firms. There is some evidence in this direction, but it is not
entirely convincing. A second explanation is “positive feedback” strategies,
where investors buy IPOs expecting positive autocorrelation. If enough in-
vestors do this, the autocorrelation becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy (this is
basically the “greater fool” theory). This effect may be difficult to stop with
arbitrage since is difficult to short-sell the IPO [Rajan and Servaes (????)].
130 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
the average price is 1/2, the expected IPO underpricing is 50%. Under these
conditions, the issuer has higher expected proceeds with cascades than with
path dependency or perfect communication.
What if the issuer can modify the price based on past sales? Issuers with
sufficiently high risk aversion may prefer to start an immediate cascade to
path dependency with the option to change the price later.
The model has a number of implications. First, when distribution is less
fragmented (a local issue) the issuer will underprice more. For these issues
the offer price decreases with the issuer’s risk aversion and capital require-
ments. Issuers have an incentive to prevent communications to preserve the
cascade. Welch argues that the winner’s curse in Rock (1986) is not im-
portant, since success of the offer is a foregone conclusion by the time the
“marginal” investor is approached.
To add another element of realism, issuers are given inside information
about the firm type which is correlated with the outside signals. This makes
it relatively less expensive for a high quality firm to raise the price than for
a low quality firm, creating a separating equilibrium.
three factor model, intercept estimates for issuers is significantly less than for
non-issuers. Also, the issuers have higher betas, which is inconsistent with
the lower returns from the previous analysis.
Murphy (1985) reexamines the relation between firm performance and exec-
utive compensation. This study focuses on individual executives over time
and includes important explanatory variables as well as indirect forms of
compensation which prior research has ignored. Murphy finds that executive
compensation is strongly positively related to firm performance.
The paper attempts to avoid errors in variables problems associated with
omitting factors such as entrepreneurial ability, managerial responsibility,
firm size and past performance. If these factors are constant over time,
then time series regressions for individual executives can correctly assess the
sensitivity of pay to performance. The components of compensation under
consideration include: salary, bonus, salary + bonus, deferred compensation,
stock options, and total. Compensation is purged of any direct relation to
the firm’s stock price, and compensation over time is re-expressed in 1983
dollars.
The analysis is conducted in two parts. Time series regressions of an-
nual compensation for each executive on measures of performance for each
firm-year and dummy variables to control for the executive’s position. The
measures of performance include combinations of the stock return and sales
growth. There is an intercept for each individual to capture any other im-
portant variables which are constant over time. Cross-sectional regressions
use average compensation (over time) and average performance.
134 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
Yermack (1995)
Yermack (1995) tests nine theories of why companies award executives stock
options. The main idea being tested is whether firms with high agency costs
increase pay for performance sensitivity with stock options. The primary
findings support few of the theories. There is evidence that regulated firms
are less likely to use options, while firms with noisy accounting earnings or
liquidity contraints will use options more.
The analysis uses two possible dependent variables, the option delta times
the fraction of ownership or the value of option compensation relative to
salary and bonus. The first is a “flow” measure while the latter is a “stock”
measure. Measures of option values are based on the Black-Scholes model
and include only new awards. A tobit regression incorporates individual firm
effects and accounts for the large number of variables with values of zero.
The predictions and results are in Table 5.7
Sloan (1993)
Sloan (1993) examines the incremental role of accounting figures in deter-
mining CEO compensation. The logic follows Fama (1980); accounting earn-
ings do not subject the risk-averse manager to uncontrollable market noise.
136 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
There will be a greater reliance on earnings when: (i) the firm’s stock returns
are highly correlated with market noise, (ii) earnings are highly correlated
with firm specific signals in returns, or (iii) earnings are less correlated with
market wide noise. Thus, accounting earnings are used as an instrumental
variable in a sense. Ideally, pay would be a function of actions, but these
are not easily observable. Instead, price can be used as a determinant of
compensation, but price is a noisy measure. The weights placed on price and
earnings reflect the tradeoff between incentive alignment and risk-sharing.
There are two important variables in the analysis, the ratio of variance in
market wide noise to variance of earnings noise and the correlation between
these sources of noise. Both variables are interacted with accounting perfor-
mance and stock performance. When the ratio of noise variances is large,
compensation should be based more on the accounting earnings and less on
the returns performance. When the sources of noise are positively correlated
the firm will base compensation less on accounting measures and more on
stock returns. The results indicate that the variance of noise in returns is
less than the variance of noise in earnings. The correlation between market
wide noise and earnings noise is close to zero.
Sloan finds support for the three hypotheses tested in this paper. First,
earnings measures shield executives from market noise. Second, CEO com-
pensation is more sensitive to earnings performance when the returns are
noisy relative to earnings. Finally, firms place more emphasis on earnings
when the correlation between noise in stock returns and earnings are closer
5.11. EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION 137
to negative one.
Symbols shown are predictions. Actual results that are significantly different are in
parenthesis.
The study considers four endogenous policy variables: E/V for financ-
ing, D/P for dividends, CEO salary for compensation, and frequency of op-
tion/bonus plans for incentive compensation. Independent variables include
book assets to value for the investment opportunity set, size, accounting re-
turn, and a dummy for regulated industries. The data are on the industry
level.
The results indicate that firms with more growth options have lower lever-
age, lower dividend yields, higher compensation, and more frequent usage of
stock option plans. Regulated firms have higher leverage, higher dividend
yields, lower compensation, and less frequent usage of stock option/bonus
plans. Finally, larger firms tend to have higher dividend yields and higher
levels of executive compensation. These results inply relations among the
policy variables as well. There should be a positive relation between lever-
age and dividend yield and between compensation and the use of incentive
plans. There should be negative relations between dividend yield and incen-
tive plans and also between leverage and either compensation or incentive
plans.
Stulz (1995)
Stulz (1995) attempts to reconcile the theories and practice of risk manage-
ment. Survey data indicate that firms typically hedge transactions and do
not engage in speculation or arbitrage. At the same time, managers indicate
their view influences the extent of hedging and many large firms view the
tresury as a profit center. Large firms tend to use derivatives more than
smaller firms.
Theories predict gains from risk management may come from several
sources. In an efficient market with diversification, these gains must arise
only from real resource gains such as reducing costs due to financial distress,
taxes, wages, or capital acquisition. Since increases in capital are a substitute
for risk management, firms with low leverage are generally not expected to
benefit much from hedging. In this sense, hedging allows firms to save capital.
Since managers dictate the risk management policy it is important to consider
their incentives to reduce or increase risk. The chances of bankruptcy also
affect risk management. The lowest risk firms can afford to take bets and
the highest risk firms are forced to take bets.
Since most of the arguements for risk management focus on left-tail out-
comes, methods such as variance reduction are not really appropriate. Value
at risk emphasizes the magitude of the loss that occurs with a given proba-
bility, but it is not appropriate either. The path of firm value over time is
more important than the distribution at a point in time.
amount of financing then the investment policy will still be altered. Thus,
actions the firm can take to reduce cashflow variability may increase firm
value. This is based on the assumption that firms are more efficient at
hedging than individuals.
An implication of the model is that high R&D firms are more likely to
hedge. These firms may have greater difficulty raising external funds because
either the growth opportunities are not good collateral or since there may be
large information asymmetries. Also, the R&D growth options are not likely
to be correlated with hedgeable risks. This effect comes from the distinction
between collateral value sensitivities and marginal product sensitivities. Here
the marginal product is insensitive to hedgeable risk. Therefore, the firm
desires more hedging so it can still fully invest in the bad states. If the
marginal product were more sensitive there would be a natural hedge in the
sense that when the firm is in a bad state it wants to invest less anyways.
Several conclusions arise from the model.
• Optimal hedging does not always mean full hedging.
• Firms should hedge less when future investment and cashflows are
highly correlated and more when collateral and cashflows are corre-
lated.
• Hedging by multinationals is influenced by revenue and expense expo-
sures to exchange rates.
• Nonlinear hedging allows added precision.
• Futures and forwards are different intertemporally.
• Hedging practices of competitors matters to a firm.
May (1995)
May (1995) tests the theory that managerial risk preferences affect the risk
management decisions of the firm. The paper focuses on acquisitions, which
can be a substitute for other risk management practices. For managers,
diversification may be a positive NPV project, even though it may be bad for
shareholders. The main finding is that managers with more personal wealth
invested in the firm tend to diversify, despite evidence that diversification
typically reduces firm value [Berger and Ofek (1995)].
The CEO’s motive are proxied by his tenure, estimated fraction of wealth
in equity, specialization of human capital, and past performance. The rela-
tion between these variables and the diversification level sought, industry-
adjusted leverage, volatility, and idiosyncratic risk are considered. Diversifi-
5.12. RISK MANAGEMENT 141
Tufano (1996)
By focusing on the gold industry Tufano (1996) is able to carefully examine
the determinants of risk management. Isolating the gold industry allows a
study where there is a common exposure to output price. The wide variety
of risk management policies and gold-related derivative instruments used
by the industry provides cross-sectional variation. Data collection efforts
are aided by the public disclosure of risk management activities. The gold
industry should use very little hedging since its assets are mostly tangible
and known, investors can hedge on their own relatively easily, and detailed
reporting minimizes informational asymmetries. Despite these reasons, 85%
of the firms do manage risk.
142 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
Rajan (1996)
Rajan (1996) presents a model incorporating the endogenous costs and bene-
fits of bank debt. An optimal borrowing structure reduces a bank’s ability to
appropriate rents from the borrower without drastically reducing its ability
to control. The main result is that an informed bank can prevent a manager
from continuing a negative NPV project, but it comes at a cost of reduced
managerial effort and value due to the bank’s bargaining power over positive
NPV projects. Arm’s length debt has neither the bargaining power nor the
monitoring capacity of bank debt, but demands a higher return ex ante to
compensate for the negative NPV projects.
In the model an owner-manager needs external financing to pursue a
project idea. After making the investment, the manager exerts costly effort
which affects the distribution of project returns. The bank has the ability to
force discontinuation if the project becomes negative NPV. Since the manager
is a residual claimant, he always wants to continue [Jensen and Meckling
(1976)]. Note that everyone is risk-neutral in the model.
The structure of the bank loan is important. If the bank requires repay-
ment when the true state is revealed, the bank has the power to hold up
the manager unless he has other financing options. This causes the owner to
lose some of the surplus from the project and he will no longer exert optimal
effort. Alternatively, the bank can require repayment only at completion of
the project. Now the bank loses its power to force discontinuation and has
144 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
Puri (1996)
The purpose of Puri (1996) is to determine whether banks suffered from a
conflict of interest when they were allowed to underwrite securities offerings.
The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 prevented banks from underwriting based on
the premise that banks had an incentive to underwrite offerings of their own
troubled loans.
There is a tradeoff between the informational advantage banks have,
which should reduce the yield premium, and the conflict of interest, which
would raise the premium. The strategy of the paper is to look at yield pre-
miums of commerical banks versus investment banks. The null hypothesis
is that the yield premiums are the same for the two types of banks. The
sample includes several hundred offerings between 1927 and 1929, the pe-
riod between the McFadden Act, which made underwriting legal, and the
Depression. The main analysis is a regression of yield premium on control
variables and a dummy for commercial banks. The control variables include
credit quality, loan amount, syndiate size, firm age, and dummy variables for
exchange listing, securitization, and new issue.
The results suggest that commercial banks did not have a conflict of
interest. The yield on bank underwritten issues is lower than that on un-
derwritings by investment banks, especially for the informationally sensitive
offerings such as new issues, industrials, preferred, and lower-grade. This
indicates the informational effects dominate the conflict of interest and is
consistent with positive AR for bank loan announcements.
poor prosepects but large free cashflow do not seem to direct more funds to
small divisions in growing industries.
tion is the primary friction, others include transactions costs, taxes, agency
problems, and financial distress.
The paper explores the empirical support for the q theory, sales ac-
celorator model and the neoclassical model of investment. Each of these
models predict that factors other than cash flow drive investment. Under
the q theory, firms invest as long as the marginal q is greater than unity.
The neoclassical theory is based on the notion that the financial character-
istics of a firm do not affect the cost of capital. The sales accelerator model
says that sales growth drives investment.
The basic idea behind the empirical tests is to define three classes of firms
based on dividend payouts (retained earnings). These groups are proxies for
information asymmetry; high payouts mean the firm has the lowest costs
to external financing. Investment per dollar of capital is then regressed on
financial measures to see if there are differences across groups. The results
indicate that cashflow is important in determining investment, and more so
for the firms with low dividend payouts. This supports the pecking order
theory.
Stein (1992)
Stein (1992) develops a theory explaining the use of convertible debt based
on the cost of financial distress and the importance of call provisions. Con-
148 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
vertibles allow a company to get equity into the capital structure “through
the back door,” while mitigating the adverse selection costs of a direct equity
issuance. Since a convertible issue is like a combination of debt and equity
the issuance signals better prospects than an equity issuance.
The model is an extension of Myers and Majluf (1984), where there are
good, medium, and bad firms that differ in the probability of a high cash flow.
The firm knows its type at time zero, while investors get this information at
time one. The cashflow is revealed at time two. A good firm is certain to
get the high cashflow XH . Medium firms get XH with probabiltity p. Bad
firms may improve with probability (1 − z) and have a p% chance at XH , or
deteriorate and get nothing.
A basic version of the model gives firms the choice of equity, long term
debt and convertible debt. When costs of financial distress are sufficiently
high (C > I − XL ) there is a separating equilibrium. Good firms choose
debt since there are no distress costs and the firm does not have to sell
undervalued securities. Medium firms choose convertible debt to reflect the
tradeoff between distress costs and issuing undervalued securites. The bad
firms choose equity because the distress costs of other securities outweigh the
benefits.
There are several forms of empirical support for the model. Firms often
state the desire to get equity into the capital structure as a reason for issuing
convertible securities. Convertible debt is often (and fairly quickly) converted
into equity. Convertible issuers tend to have high informational asymmetries
and costs of financial distress as indicated by high R&D/Sales, M/B, D/E,
and CF volatility. Finally, the stock price reaction to convertible issues is
typically half to a third the negative reaction of equity issuances.
tends to be abnormally high. After the call, what may be normal performance
will look poor in comparison. Other papers which correct for this problem
do not find evidence of poor post-announcement performance.
The authors use several measures of performance to avoid the causality
problem between the call decision and the performance measures. EBIT will
not be affected by the conversion. EBT is affected through the reduction in
interest. EPS is affected by both the interest and the increase in number of
shares. Finally, AEBT is EBT less the interest that would have been paid.
Three models of normal performance are used. The first assumes the per-
formance is stationary through time. The second and third models express
expected performance as a function of average market- and industry-wide
performance. In all cases the results indicate that these firms have unexpect-
edly poor performance. The call announcement is associated with a negative
abnormal return, then followed by negative CARs over the next five years.
These results are consistent with the information signaling hypothesis and
the predictions of Myers and Majluf (1984).
Asquith (1995)
Asquith (1995) corrects prior studies by showing that, when measured prop-
erly, there is no call delay. Prior studies draw the conclusion that conversion
value in excess of call value indicates a delay from the optimal time to call.
A number of these bonds are still call-protected. Many of those that are
not protected have the after-tax yield below the dividend, providing a cash-
flow incentive not to convert. Finally, delayed conversion bonds often have
relatively low premia or volatile cashflows, providing a price protection justi-
fication for the delay. These motivations are discussed in Asquith and Mullins
(1991). This paper adds an analysis of the delay between when a bond is
callable and when it is called.
The paper finds that those bonds that are called have fewer “live” days.
Bonds with relatively high conversion prices and those with D < I(1 − τ ) are
called more quickly. A puzzle is that there are several bonds with D > I(1−τ )
that are called. The general conclusion is that most bonds are called as soon
as possible unless there are cashflow advantages to delaying. The median
call delay for all bonds is four months, but less than one month if a price
cushion is considered. Asquith argues that call premiums are not a useful
method of detecting whether bonds are called late. Overall, the average call
premium is 50%. The average call premium drops to 25% after considering
factors such as cashflow motivated delays, sudden stock price increases, and
large premiums while call protected.
Shleifer (1986)
Shleifer (1986) provides evidence that demand curves for stocks do slope
down. He uses inclusion in the S&P 500 as a sample since this event increases
demand for the stock without contaminating information effects. Earlier
studies had examined the price effects of large block trades but these events
may be based on information. A possible certification role of index member-
ship is refuted since the returns are unrelated to bond ratings. The liquidity
hypothesis is rejected by finding no difference in the returns of Fortune 500
firms and other firms.
There is no evidence that the market is able to predict inclusion in the
index. Before daily notification of the inclusion there is no abnormal return
on the event day. Since 1976 there has been a daily notification service of
changes in the index. In this period inclusion in the index is associated with
a positive abnormal return of about 2.8%. This return lasts for several weeks
and seems to be related to buying by index funds. Other evidence supports
the downward sloping demand curve hypothesis as well. The price reaction
to large block trades typically only lasts a few hours. Firms with multiple
classes of stock that issue more of one class generally experience a price drop
only for that class of stock [Loderer, Cooney, and VanDrunen (1991)]. A
downward sloping demand curve is also consistent with the January effect.
them most valuable to firms within the industry. When industry shocks send
a firm into financial distress its competitors will also be affected. As a result,
there is an industry debt capacity and the leverage of one firm will depend on
the leverage of its peers. Firms outside the industry may have an interest in
the assets but are likely to pay less. Outsiders fear overpaying since they lack
the expertise to properly value the assets, they may lack the knowledge or
skills to fully utilize the assets, and they face agency costs in hiring experts
to help them.
There are several empirical implications of the model. Liquid assets
should be financed with more debt. Cyclical and growth oriented assets
are likely to have lower debt financing. Ceteris paribus, smaller firms should
be able to support more debt since they can more easily be purchased. Con-
glomerates should also be able to use more debt since the divisions can cross-
subsidize each other. High markets are likely to be liquid markets.
The takeover wave of the 1980s is consistent with this theory. Corpo-
rate cashflows were large as were the number of potential buyers. Antitrust
enforcement was relaxed, allowing more intra-industry acquisitions. This in-
creased liquidity and the rise of the junk bond market reinforced each other.
Merton (1987)
Merton (1987) is an asset pricing model which relaxes the assumption of ho-
mogeneous information. Although the model is cast as one with imperfect
information, it can be interpreted as a model of incomplete markets. In-
vestors are unable to fully diversify so they demand a premium for bearing
this undiversifiable unsystematic risk.
In this one period model risk-averse investors know about a subset of the
securities in n risky firms. There is also a riskless asset and another asset
that combines the riskless security with a forward contract. The market is
absent frictions from taxes, transactions costs, and restrictions on borrow-
ing. If all investors had complete information sets the model reduces to the
standard SL CAPM, otherwise the market portfolio is not mean-variance ef-
ficient. Information costs come in the form of gathering and processing data,
transmitting information, and most impotantly, making investors aware of
the firm.
The return generating process is
This equation shows the expected return decreases when the investor base
increases.
There model makes several predictions. A large common-factor exposure
(bk ), large size (xk ), or large variance (σk2 ) create high expected returns.
When the firm is well-known or has a large investor base (qk ) the expected
return is smaller. This may give rise to a size effect. These effects can give
rise to downward-sloping demand curves. Expansion of the firm’s investor
base and increases in investment will tend to coincide, giving a motivation for
an underwritten offer instead of a rights offer. Managers have an incentive to
expand the investor base, especially for relatively unknown firms and those
with large firm-specific variances. This can explain why firms advertise their
stock and invest in generating interest in the firm by the financial press. The
model is also consistent with IPO waves in gereral and concentration within
an industry.
The results are consistent with both models. The proxy for Merton’s
shadow cost of incomplete information is the inverse of the change in investor
base scaled by the level of firm-specific risk and market value. Controlling
for the change in bid-ask spread, an increase in investor base results in a
positive abnormal return. Controlling for change in investor base, a decrease
in the spread is associated with higher abnormal returns.
Loderer, Cooney, and VanDrunen (1991) isolate and identify the potential
influence of price elasticity on demand using the price discount from SEOs
by regulated firms. Regulated firms are used because they are more likely to
have preferred stock and less likely to have information asymmetries. If the
stock issuance announcement contains negative information it there should
be a neagative reaction for preferred stock as well. The evidence supports
the incomplete markets theory of Merton (1987), but is inconclusive with
respect to theories of liquidity or heterogeneous beliefs.
To estimate the determinants of elasticity, IN V ELAS 8 is regressed on
variance (–), size (–), investor base/liquidity (+), and proxies for information
effects (+). To capture information effects the authors consider ∆E[EP S],
∆EP S, ∆ROE, and the price change of nonconvertible preferred stock at the
announcement. The results are significant and consistent with predictions for
all variables except liquidity and information, which are insignificant. These
results are robust to a number of different specifications and proxy variables.
A potential caveat is the predictability of issuance by regulated firms may
make it difficult to detect information effects.
Zender (1991)
Zender (1991) develops a model of the optimal financing contract that incor-
porates both cashflow and control allocations. Most existing theories focus
only on cashflows. The optimal financial instruments completely resolve in-
centive problems induced by asymmetric information. In the setting of the
paper, standard debt and equity contracts are optimal. Bankruptcy broad-
ens the investment opportunity set and facilitates cooperation between the
parties.
In the model there are three agents: an entrepreneur, an active owner,
and a passive owner. The owners are risk-neutral and have limited capital.
At t = 0 contracts are designed and sold and the initial investment I0 is
made. At t = 1 information about CF3 is made public. The firm receives
CF1 and assignment of t = 2 controls are made. At t = 2 the firms has an
investment opportunity which the controlling owner knows but the public
only knows the distribution. The investment requires an investment I that
is unobservable to outsiders. At t = 3 the investment payoff is realized and
the firm is liquidated.
There is disagreement among the agents about investment/dividend pol-
icy due to the passive investor’s inability to observe investment expenditures.
The agents realize up front that risk-shifting may occur and they mitigate
it by inducing a state-contingent control change when an observable signal
is realized. Cashflows to debt must be fixed in order to provide the equity-
holder incentives to make efficient investments. This can explain the use of
debt before tax shields.
Tufano (1989)
Tufano (1989) examines “innovative” investment banks and the benefits from
innovation. He finds that innovators gererally do not charge monopoly prices
(underwriting spread). Instead, they charge lower long-run prices and gain
market share. One interpretation is that innovation can reduce costs of
trading, underwriting, and marketing.
To identify the importance of price as a source of first-mover advan-
tage underwriting spreads are regressed on measures of competitiveness and
underwriter identity and control vartiables for offering characteristics. A
dummy variable for the monopoly period is insignificant for all offers and
negative for imitated products. Permanent price effects as measured by a
5.16. FINANCIAL INNOVATION 157
Kim and Stulz (1988) directly test the clientele hypothesis, which says that
firm value can be increased by seeking funding from groups with unique
demands. The evidence is consistent with this hypothesis.
The authors focus on Eurobonds from U.S. firms that also issue domestic
debt. Eurobonds are geneally bearer bonds allowing the holder to escape
taxes. There are some questions over the enforceability of the bond indenture,
so reputation replaces restrictive covenants. Foreign investors may desire
these securities because they offer diversification yet have smaller purchasing
power and political risks. This market is characterized by larger underwriting
spreads.
If the supply of Eurobonds is not perfectly elastic then excess demand
can create profitable financing opportunities since investors will accept lower
yields. The supply of these securities is somewhat constrained because of the
high issuance costs, low risk requirement, and reputational capital required.
The results indicate there are positive abnormal returns at the announce-
ment of Eurobond issues. A comparison sample of domestic debt issues
shows no significant announcement effect, as in Mikkelson and Partch (1986).
The positive abnormal returns occur mostly during the 1979–1982 period of
bought-deal underwriting when yield spreads were large. This type of ar-
rangement reduced the time it takes to issue Eurobonds. The positive abnor-
mal returns diminished in subsequent years when shelf registration increased
the attractiveness of domestic issues. Abnormal returns were indistinguish-
able from zero when tax laws ended the withholding tax for foreign investors
in domestic bonds. The clientele hypothesis is tested by regressing abnormal
returns on the size of the financing bargain. They find a slope coefficient
different from zero but not different from one, consistent with the clientele
hypothesis.
158 CHAPTER 5. CORPORATE FINANCE
Market Microstructure
6.1 Introduction
Information economics deals with incorporating information into asset prices.
Market microstructure is the study of the process and outcomes of exchanging
assets under explicit trading rules. The focus is often on the interaction
between the mechanics of the trading process and its outcomes, with specific
emphasis on how actual markets and intermediaries behave.
Randomness is an important part of any of these models. The source
of the randomness has implications for the characteristics of the model. In
all cases there is uncertainty about future outcomes or cashflows. Informed
agents have imperfect infomation about the future value of the asset. This
information may be the same for all informed agents, or they may each
have diverse signals. Some models include uinformed agents whose demands
depend on price. Noise trading is an additional source of uncertainty that
introduces uncertainty about the net demands for the asset and prevents
fully revealing prices.
A major difference in the models is whether trades are processed in a
batch or sequentially. The latter allows dynamics in the price process and
facilitates analysis of the bid-ask spread. The literature is fragmentated in
the view on the risk preferences of specialists.
There are several important idiosyncracies in early papers that much of
the subsequent work tries to solve. The first is a paradox where agents
ignore their private information when prices are fully revealing. If this is
true, then how does the private information get into prices in the first place.
159
160 CHAPTER 6. MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE
A second paradox arises when private information is costly and prices are
fully revealing. If so, then there is no incentive for collection of private
information, and this private information will then never become impounded
in the prices. Finally, there is the schizophrenia result where rational agents
in a competitive market act as price takers, ignoring the impact their trades
will have on the price. The first problems are solved by introducing noise
trading. Allowing imperfect competition solves the last problem.
Marshall (1974)
1
The no trade result of Milgrom and Stokey (1982) will obtain with homogeneous beliefs
and a Pareto optimal allocation.
162 CHAPTER 6. MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE
Grossman (1976)
The Grossman (1976) paper deals with the price system as an aggregator of
diverse information. If private signals are identically distributed, then the
price reveals the average of all agents’ information and private information is
redundant given the price. The REE is identical to a Walrasian equilibrium
in an artificial economy where agents share their information before trading.
With complete markets, equilibirum allocations are ex post Pareto efficient.
In this model, agents have CARA utility so there are no wealth effects, but
in a REE there are information effects. A price change affects the desirability
of an asset.
The model specifies informed trader i knows
yi = p 1 + ε i .
The resulting price is p0 (y1 . . . yN ). Prices reflect each agent’s private infor-
mation but do not depend on preferences. This results in a paradox: indi-
viduals ignore their own information in favor of the aggregated information,
but if they do ignore their private information, how does it get into prices?
The result that prices perfectly aggregate information is not robust to the
addition of noise, but another paradox remains. If markets are “perfect” and
information collection is costly, then there is no incentive to collect informa-
tion. The agents in this model are “schizophrenic” in that their actions affect
price but they take price as given in determining their demand.
u = θ + ε.
An agent can pay c to realize θ. Informed agents receive the same signal and
all agents have negative exponential utility with risk aversion parameter a.
6.3. SINGLE PERIOD REE
Table 6.1: Summary of Key Models
Paper MM Inf. Uninf.a Noiseb Comments
Milgrom and Stokey (1982) MAC — No
Grossman (1976) MAC — No p i = P + εi
Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) MAC MAC Yes r =θ+ε
Hellwig (1980) MAC — Yes diverse info
Diamond and Verrecchia (1981) MAC — Yes diverse info, noise in endowments
Admati (1985) MAC — Yes multiple assets
Kyle (1989) MAU MAU Yes i n = v + en
Kyle (1985) SNC SNU — Yes dynamic model
Admati and Pfleiderer (1988) SNC MNC M Yes
Admati and Pfleiderer (1989) MN MNU M Yes
Foster and Viswanathan (1990) SC SU C Yes
Slezak (1994) MAC MAC Yes multi-period generalization of GS
Amihud and Mendelson (1980) SNU M — Yes spread = cost, is MM is C?
Glosten and Milgrom (1985) NC MN — Yes
Glosten (1989) SNU MA — Yes all traders have liq. and info.
Rock (1989) SA MA MN Inf. = Mkt. orders, Uninf. = limit
163
164 CHAPTER 6. MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE
θ − Rp E[ũ|P̃ () = p] − Rp
XI () = and XU () = .
aσε2 avar(ũ|P̃ = p)
λXI + (1 − λ)XU = x.
Hellwig (1980)
Hellwig (1980) attempts to avoid the schizophrenic agents in Grossman (1976)
by enlarging the economy. The model takes the limit of the incorrect econ-
omy, rather than fixing the problem. In other words, this solution is essen-
tially “at the limit” rather than “in the limit,” leaving open the question of
how an economy becomes large in the first place. The paper is still important
in that it shows the schizophrenia problem may be small when the economy
is large.
The model is basically an extension of Grossman (1976), but with the
addition of noise in the supply of the risky asset. The amount of information
also grows with the size of the economy [Kyle (1989) holds it fixed]. In a finite-
agent economy when the noise is small, the price becomes fully revealing, as
in Grossman. Upon enlarging the economy, the prices do not fully reflect the
information of the informed agents. Individuals find their own information to
6.3. SINGLE PERIOD REE 165
Admati (1985)
Admati (1985) is a multisecurity version of Hellwig (1980). Investment deci-
sions are based on MV considerations, but each agent in effect uses a different
model since they condition on different information. These conditional mod-
els do not natually aggregate to imply similar unconditional models. There-
fore, the market is geneally not MV efficient for any particular information
set, including all public infomation. Uncertainty about the supply of one
asset may prevent the prices of other assets from being fully revealing. This
may represent a solution to the Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) paradox.
The correlations among the assets can result in a number of strange re-
sults. Price may be decreasing in the profitability of an asset or increasing
in its supply. The predicted payoff of an asset may be decreasing in price.
Finally, assets may increase in price with greater demand.
Kyle (1989)
The Kyle (1989) paper solves the schizophrenia problem by allowing imper-
fect competition. The model uses noise traders, uninformed traders, and
mulitple informed speculators in a static model. A Walrasian auctioneer ac-
cepts limit orders. The informed speculators receive independent, normally
distributed noisy signals of the asset value. Traders have negative exponen-
tial (CARA) utility.
166 CHAPTER 6. MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE
The value of the asset is given by ṽ with variance τv−1 . Noise traders
have random demands z̃ with variance σz2 . There are N informed agents
with information ĩn = ṽ + ẽn where var(ẽn ) = τe−1 . There is a symmetric
linear equilibrium with informed demands Xn (p, in ) = µI + βin − γI p and
uninformed demands Xm (p) = µU − γU p.
If all information could be combined the precision of the forecast would
be τF = var−1 (ṽ|ĩ1 , . . . , ĩN ) = τU + N τe . The precision for the informed
and uninformed are τI = var−1 (ṽ|p̃, ĩn ) = τv + τe + ψI (N − 1)τe and τU =
var−1 (ṽ|p̃) = τv + ψU N τe . The terms ψI and ψU represent the fraction of
information available to the type of agent. When ψ = 0 prices are unin-
formative and when ψ = 1 prices are fully revealing. Expressions for these
terms are
N β2 (N − 1)β 2
ψU = and ψI = .
N β 2 + σz2 τe (N − 1)β 2 + σz2 τe
The results of the model are prices that are less revealing than in the
perfect competition case. The uninformed breakeven on average and the
informed profit at the expense of the noise traders. An increase in the number
of uninformed or a decrease in their risk aversion ρU increases the information
effect. As M → ∞, E[ṽ|p] = p, a martingale result. An increase in the
number of informed or a decrease in per capita noise trading increases ψI .
In the limiting economy as N → ∞, τe = τE /N where τE is fixed. The
uninformed do not trade (??). As the infomed become risk-neutral, prices
become fully revealing in the competitive case, but only half as much in the
imperfect competetion case. Endogenizing information acquisition overcomes
the schizophrenia problem.
This equilibrium is different from the competitive outcome since informed
traders now take into account the effect of their actions on the market price.
In this case, traders must know the pricing function, the number of other
traders, and all other agents’ demand schedules. By accounting for their
impact on price, traders no longer completely trade away their informational
advantage.
Kyle (1985)
The classic Kyle (1985) model uses a single risk-neutral informed trader, a
group of noise traders, and a single risk-neutral market maker. The model
is dynamic, allowing an analysis of trading strategies over time.
The model is presented first in a single period setting. The random future
asset value is ṽ, which only the informed trader can observe. The market
maker does not explicitly know v, but knows ṽ ∼ N (p0 , Σ0 ). The uninformed
traders provide noise in the aggregate order flow (x̃ + ũ), thereby preventing
the market maker from perfectly inferring v. These noise traders submit
orders for ũ ∼ N (0, σu2 ).
The informed trader, who has rational expectations, knows the pricing
function and the distribution of noise trades. He chooses an order quantity
to maximize his expected profits
X(v) = argmax E[Π(X(·), P (·))|v].
The informed trader does not know the price at which his order will be filled.
The equilibrium2 is the pair P (·) and X(·). The market maker sets price
equal to the expected value of v conditional on observing x + u.
P (x + u) = E[ṽ|x + u].
The equilibrium is
X(ṽ) = β(ṽ − p0 )
p p
where β = σu2 /Σ0 and λ = 12 Σ0 /σu2 . The market maker can use his
knowledge of X(·) to observe a random variable ∼ N (v, σu2 /β 2 ). Using Bayes
rule, his posterior on v is N (p0 + λ(x + u), Σ0 /2).
To derive the equilibrium, suppose that P and X can be expressed as
linear functions of µ, λ, α, and β
The expected profit for the informed agent given his signal is
E[Π|tildev = v] = E [ṽ − P (x + ũ)]x|ṽ = v = (v − µ − λx)x.
µ − p0 = −λ(α + βp0 ).
1 1 1
= βΣ0 = (Σ0 σu2 ) 2 .
2 2
The variance of the value conditional on the price is
1
= Σ0 /4 + λ2 σu2 = Σ0
2
6.4. BATCH MODELS 169
Note that the noise traders have an expected loss, which can be justi-
fied with liquidity trading arguments. The noise traders’ loss is the informed
trader’s gain. The market maker expects to break even on average by balanc-
ing his loss to the informed with the gain from trading with the uninformed.
In the discrete time sequential auction there is a unique linear equilibrium.
There are constants βn , λn , αn , δn , and Σn such that
1 − 2αn λn
β n ∆n =
2λn (1 − αn λn )
λn = βn Σn /σu2
Σn = (1 − βn λn ∆tn )Σn−1
The derivation of the above results follows three steps. First, solve for the
informed agent’s trading strategy as a function of the price function. Second,
find the price function that is consistent with market efficiency given optimal
trades. Finally, show the difference equation system implied by the first two
steps has a solution.
170 CHAPTER 6. MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE
work where market makers reduce the adverse selection problem by inducing
patterns in volume and price. By changing the bid or ask commission, the
market maker can change the expected number of liquidity sellers and buy-
ers. The market maker’s expected loss to the informed decreases with the
commission, but so does his expected profits on the discretionary liquidity
traders. The market maker processes trades in a manner combining some fea-
tures of batch and sequential trading. Traders do know the prices at which
they will transact, but prices are updated after every period in time, not
after every trade.
Equilibrium trading results in all discretionary buying occuring in a single
period, and similarly for selling. This is because the liquidity trading reduces
the adverse selection problem. The paper uses a market where traders can
only buy on even days and sell on odd days as an example.
Slezak (1994)
Slezak (1994) develops a multiperiod generalization of Grossman and Stiglitz
(1980) that produces patterns in both the mean and variance of returns
without relying on irrationality, bubbles, or strategic liquidity trading. These
patterns arise because of the effect market closures have on the information
structure in the economy.
6.5. SEQUENTIAL TRADE MODELS 173
The model uses risk-averse agents. Market closures alter investor uncer-
tainty by changing the timing of resolution of uncertainty and by reducing
the informed agent’s comparative advantage at risk bearing. Closures affect
the variance of returns by altering the informativeness of the price. Post clo-
sure prices reflect a greater proportion of private news on the reopening day,
but less private news accumulated over the closure. Preclosure prices are rel-
atively less informative as well. Post closure liquidity costs are higher since
increased adverse selection causes the uninformed to provide less liquidity.
Glosten (1989)
When investors trade on private information it can lead to suboptimal risk
sharing if the market maker reduces the liquidity of the market. Glosten
(1989) looks at whether the monopoly power of the specialist can preserve
market liquidity and avoid market failure.
In Glosten and Milgrom (1985) the market maker is competitive. He sets
the price to have a zero expected profit on every trade. When information
6.5. SEQUENTIAL TRADE MODELS 175
asymmetries are large the market may fail completely. Furthermore, market
closure generally makes the information asymmetry worse. By giving the
market market monopoly power4 he can set prices to average profits across
trades. He will lose on trades with the informed, but compensate with trades
to the uninformed. The result is increased liquidity. The market maker is
risk-neutral so there are no inventory costs associated with risk bearing. The
model also ignores any dynamic trading.
Rock (1989)
Rock (1989) examines the interaction of the specialists order book and prices.
risk-neutral uninformed traders submit limit orders. A risk-averse market
maker competes with the orders in the book. The market maker has two
advantages. First, he knows the size of the trade. Second, he moves second
so he can get out of the way of big trades and fill them from the book,
creating an adverse selection problem. The book orders tend to only get the
unprofitable trades.
Limit orders provide liquidity to the market. These orders have an option
component to them. The order is an obligation to buy or sell at the specified
price. Since the order submitters are writing the option, they receive an
option premium in the form of reduced transactions costs. These investors
avoid the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread by standing
ready to transact ahead of time.
The assumptions about risk preferences are important in this model. If
the specialist was risk-neutral he would not need to bother with the order
book. It is the risk neutrality of the limit order submitters that gives them
a comparative advantage at risk bearing. If the limit order submitters were
risk-averse they would only submit orders in response to inventory positions,
etc. The risk aversion of the specialist will cause him to take transactions at
prices that may differ from underlying value.
4
The market maker need not literally be a monopolist. He has superior information
about the trading process from his order book, but may face competition from limit orders
and other floor traders. Limit orders allow traders to provide liquidity to the market and
compete with the market maker. What is important is his ability to average profits across
trades.
176 CHAPTER 6. MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE
Sale of Information
People with private information can profit from it by selling it or by trading
on it themselves. The more selling they do, the less valuable the information
is in their trading. The information seller can add noise to the information
(either the same noise for each purchaser or unique noises). Selling can also
be done indirectly, as in a mutual fund.
Regulation
The adverse selection component of trading costs is like a tax on noise traders
that subsidizes the acquisition of private information and its release through
the price system. Regulators can attempt to influence the liquidity of markets
and the informativeness of prices. Attempts to reduce noise trading on the
grounds that it destabilizes prices may not work. It is noise trading that
attracts informed traders to the market in the first place. Reducing noise
trading may actually reduce the informativeness of prices.
pt = p∗t + ct
6.6.2 Speculation
Hart & Kreps (1986)
Hart and Kreps (1986) show that, contrary to common belief, speculation can
destabilize prices. Speculators buy when the chances of price appreciation
are high, which is not necessarily when prices are actually low.
178 CHAPTER 6. MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE
6.6.3 Noise
DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, & Waldman (1990)
? develop an overlapping generations model with irrational noise traders.
The rational investors do not fully exploit the irrational investors. Their
short-run focus prevents them from completely wiping out the irrational in-
vestors.
“Noise trader risk” is the chance that marketwide irrational beliefs of
the noise traders may become even more irrational before reverting to their
mean. Essentially the noise trader beliefs are slowly mean reverting. If an
arbitrageur has a limited investment horizon there is a chance that the prices
will not return to their true value before he has to close out his position. In
fact, if the beliefs become more irrational the arbitrageur may face a loss.
There are several plausible preditions from the model. Prices are more
volatile with noise trading. If the noise traders’ opinions are stationary there
will be a mean-reverting component to stock returns. Assets may be un-
derpriced realtive to fundamental value, consistent with the equity premium
puzzle.
6.6.4 Cascades
Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer, & Welch (1992)
Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer, and Welch (1992) generalize the idea of IPO cas-
cades in Welch (1992). For the details of cascades refer to the discussion
of the original paper in Section 5.10.1. An information cascade describes
a sequence of decisions where individuals ignore their own private informa-
tion in favor of information inferred from the observation of others decisions.
Cascades can be reversed by the release of new information.
Chapter 7
International Finance
7.1 Introduction
What distinguishes international finance from traditional finance is the addi-
tion of foreign exchange rate assets, both spot and forward. There are several
measures of returns in international finance. The return from currency spec-
ulation by buying forward and selling spot is (ft − st+1 )/st . Mean returns are
generally close to zero. Depreciation is defined as (st+1 − st )/st . The forward
premium is (ft − st )/st .
There are several basic concepts that are important in international fi-
nance. Covered Interest Rate Parity dictates that
Ftij
exp(rti ) = exp(rtj ) or rti − rtj = ftij − sij
t
Stij
179
180 CHAPTER 7. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
There are two puzzles in international finance. The first is the deviation
of the forward rate from the expected future spot rate. This captures the
difference between covered and uncovered interest parity. The second puzzle
is the home country bias — too little investment in foreign assets.
∂U/∂Y
Also note the price of Y in terms of X can be expressed as pY (s) = ∂U/∂X
.
The exchange rate (currency 0 per unit of currency 1) is
pX (s, M ) M/ξ πY
e(s, M, N ) = pY (s) = pY (s) = pY (s)
pY (s, N ) N/η πX
where πi = 1/pi (s, ·) gives the purchasing power for country i. In equilibrium,
∂U (t) ∂U (t + 1)
Vi (t)πi (t) =E β πi (t + 1)[Vi (t + 1) + Di (t + 1)] .
∂i ∂i
For a riskless asset
∂U (t + 1)/∂i π(t + 1)
Bi (t) = E β = E[m].
∂U (t)/∂i π(t)
Fama (1984)
Fama (1984a) uses the same basic framework Fama (1984b), which looks at
Treasury bills. The idea here is to determine the information in the forward
182 CHAPTER 7. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
premium about forecast errors and changes in the spot rate. This research
shows that excess returns are not only predictable ex ante, but also that the
variance of the predictable component exceeds the variance of the expected
rate change.
The analysis begins with a specification for the components of the forward
rate
ft = E[st+1 ] + pt
where the lower case letters indicate logs and pt is the premium. This can
be modified to represent the forward premium, which is then used to predict
the forecast error and spot rate innovation
ft − st = E[st+1 − st ] + pt
Mark (1988)
Mark (1988) allows time-variation in beta or the risk premium in a single beta
CAPM to attempt to explain the forward premium puzzle. The conditional
beta comes from an ARCH model. Using GMM, he fails to reject the model,
indicating that there is evidence of time-varying beta. Additional tests reject
the hypothesis of a constant beta.
7.3. FORWARD CURRENCY PRICING 183
and decompose beta into β = 1 − βre − βrp . The term βre captures failure
of rational expectations while βrp represents the risk premium. The priors
are that βrp is large and βre small, but the authors find the opposite. The
risk premium does not appear to be an economically important source of
the forward premium. The authors fail to reject the hypothesis that all the
bias in the forward premium is due to expectation errors. Contrary to Fama
(1984a), Froot and Frankel find that the variance of expected depreciation
is large relative to the variance of the risk premium and the risk premium is
uncorrelated with the forward discount. This analysis does not incorporate
learning effects or the “peso problem.”
Huang (1989)
Huang (1989) examines the risk-return characteristics of the term structure
of forward FX. The analysis is much like Hansen and Hodrick (1983), but in
a multiple maturity setting. The evidence is that there appear to be some
country-specific effects in the short (1 month) end of the term structure. In
particular, Huang rejects the model using one month forwards, contrary to
184 CHAPTER 7. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Hansen and Hodrick. With 3, 6, and 12 month forwards and with multiple
maturities he fails to reject. These results are important since virtually all
other papers in the literature (at least the ones mentioned here) use one
month forwards. If there are strange influences on this maturity then the
results in other papers may not be robust.
7.4 Integration
Bekaert and Harvey (1995) develop a conditional regime-switching model
where expected returns are a weighted average of returns in integrated and
segmented markets
E[ri ] = φλcov(ri , rW ) + (1 − φ)λvar(ri )
where φ is the probability the market is integrated. This probability is es-
timated with regime switching models assuming constant or time-varying
transition probabilties. The authors find evidence of a time-varying world
price of risk related to the business cycle (the Sharpe ratio is high in a trough).
There is also evidence of time-varying integration for a number of countries.
8.1 Basics
8.1.1 Norms
A norm measures the magnitude of a vector. The Euclidean norm is the
common measure.
√ hX i1/2
||x|| ≡ x0 x ≡ x2i
8.1.2 Moments
Moments describe the characteristics of a distribution.
h The ithi moment is
µi = E[x ] and the i central moment is µi = E (x − E[x])i . The first
0 i th
moment is the mean and the second central moment the variance.
8.1.3 Distributions
Normal
If x ∼ N (µ, σ 2 ) the density and characteristic functions are
(x − µ)2
2 −1/2
f (x) = (2πσ ) exp −
2σ 2
σ 2 t2
φ(t) = exp iµt −
2
185
186 CHAPTER 8. APPENDIX: MATH RESULTS
Lognormal
If x is normally distributed, then z = ex is lognormal (its log is normal).
(ln z − µ)2
1
f (z) = √ exp − .
σz 2π 2σ 2
8.1.4 Convergence
Probability
A sequence of random variables xn converges in probability to a constant c
if
lim Pr[|xn − c| < δ] = 1 ∀ δ > 0.
n→∞
Distribution
A sequence of random variables xn with cdf Fi converges in distribution to
a random variable x with cdf F if
lim Fn (x) = F (x)
n→∞
Almost Sure
A sequence of random variables xn defined on a probability space (Ω, F, P )
converges almost surely to an rv x if
lim xn (ω) = x(ω)
n→∞
Quadratic Mean
Chebychev’s Inequality
If mean µ and variance σ exist, then for all ε > 0
Pr[|x̃ − µ| ≥ ε] ≤ σ/ε2
Cauchy-Schwarz Inequality
8.2 Econometrics
This is a very brief review of some of the highlights from econometrics that
are not immediately obvious.
E[y|x] = α + βx
then
cov(x, y)
β̂ = and α̂ = ȳ − β̂ x̄.
var(x)
G LR
g
c
LM W
Random Walk
1. Q is equivalent to P
R
dQ T 1 T 2
R
2. dP
= exp − 0 γt dWt − 2 0 γt dt
RT
3. W̃t = Wt 0
γs ds is a Q-Brownian motion.
dX = µdt + σdW
dX = µXdt + σXdW
Mean-reverting Process
dX = κ(µ − X)dt + σX γ dW
then
1 1
E[(Ax exp(x − σx2 − Ay exp(y − σy2 )+ ] = Ax N (d1) − Ay N (d2)
2 2
where
ln(Ax /Ay ) − Σ √
d1 = √ , d2 = d1 − Σ,
Σ
and Σ = var(x − y) = σx2 + σy2 − 2σxy .
192 CHAPTER 8. APPENDIX: MATH RESULTS
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